Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.

The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.

Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent.

Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona.

But the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference is a competitive conference so I'm going to sell high on the Bobcats and take this many points with underdog Mount St. Mary's. The Mountaineers are respectable on defense and a good shooting team.

SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game.

North Texas also is 8-0 at home, covering all but one of its lined home games.

I see the Mean Green really being up for this matchup after their six-game win streak was snapped by Charlotte on the road this past Saturday.

North Texas had held its last four opponents below 60 points. I don't feel the Mean Green should be a home 'dog to SMU.

It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in seven of Richmond's last eight games. The Spiders have a top-30 defense and are one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country.

The Spiders are giving up only 57.8 points in regulation during their last eight games. They should be able to control pace being at home against George Washington, which has played slower since entering Atlantic 10 Conference play.

George Washington ranks 32nd in the country in defensive field goal percentage. The Revolutionaries' strength on offense is 3-point accuracy, where they rank 17th. Richmond, though, is rated in the top 30 both in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Spiders are the top defensive team in the Atlantic 10 and playing at home. So look for defense to carry the day.

Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco.

The Pilots played a very weak non-conference schedule and have one of the worst defenses in the country. They are giving up an average of 80.2 points on the season and 97.3 points during their last three games.

Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.

BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.

The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder.

When I get involved in a Big Sky Conference game, it's usually going Over the total. But I'm making an exception in this Big Sky matchup. I believe the oddsmaker has set too high of a total.

Weber State has the 18th best defense in the country. A big factor why the Wildcats are giving up just 63.8 points per game is they play at the 347th slowest tempo in the nation. 

Montana is giving up fewer than 70 points per game when at home. Weber State averages fewer than 70 points on the road.

Both teams are strong rebounding on the defensive side. So there should be few second-chance opportunities.

Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene. 

The Ducks are 4-4 in road/neutral site games. They looked dreadful against Colorado getting outrebounded by 12 and committing 13 turnovers. Now the Ducks have to go on to Utah where the Utes are 10-0 at home this season. 

Among the teams Utah has defeated at home are BYU, Washington State, Washington and UCLA, 90-44, 10 days ago. UCLA played at Oregon on Dec. 30 and lost by five points, 64-59. 

Utah buried Oregon State, 74-47, as a 15-point home favorite this past Thursday. The Utes did that without starting point guard Rollie Worster, who is questionable for this matchup with a leg injury. The Utes have another reliable point guard in Deivon Smith, whose statistics are similar to Worster's. So it's just a bonus if Worster is able to play. 

Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.

This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.

Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1.

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.

Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.

The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.

The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.

If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large.

Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.

The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt. 

Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd. 

Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th. 

So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game. 

Morehead State gives up the 11th-fewest points per game in the country at 62.6. The Eagles rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point defense. They are the top defensive team in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Tennessee-Martin is far better offensively than on defense. But the last four Skyhawks' games have gone Under. They do rank 91st in defensive field goal percentage.

The key is tempo - and it will be slow thanks to Morehead State. The Eagles will not get into a fast-paced game with the Skyhawks, especially at home.

Rhode Island had a rough December. But sparked by David Green, the Rams are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games.

Green has scored 15 or more points in three of the four games he's played. He had 24 points in the Rams' last game, an 89-77 upset victory against UMass.

The Rams are 3-0 in the Atlantic 10 winning all three games as underdogs. St. Bonaventure has failed to cover the last three times it has been favored.

I find Rhode Island to be undervalued again in this matchup.

The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.

Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.

The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.

The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.

I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus.

Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup.

Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its Big Ten games. The Nittany Lions upset Michigan at a neutral site three games ago. Since then, however, the Nittany Lions have lost to second-ranked Purdue and Northwestern. So this becomes a circle-the-wagons home game for Penn State, which upset Ohio State at home and nearly upset Maryland on the road losing in overtime.

This is just the Badgers' fifth true road game. They are 2-2 in those away contests with their defeats coming to Providence by 13 and to Arizona by 25.

The teams played two close games last season with Wisconsin edging Penn State, 63-60 and 79-74.

Dartmouth is below the radar and justifiably so with three straight losses and non-covers. But the Big Green has had injuries. Now they finally are healthy.

Princeton is the best team in the Ivy League. Still, this is a lot of points for the Tigers to be laying in a slow-paced Ivy League matchup. Dartmouth is respectable on defense holding foes to an average of 68.7 points a game.

There could be a rust factor, too, since neither team has played in nine days. That adds some randomness and randomness is good when backing a large underdog.

The Tigers have been overpriced. They are 2-4 ATS in their last six lined games. I find them overpriced again in this spot given the circumstances.

UCLA covered against Marquette and Gonzaga in narrow losses to those schools earlier this season. Few, though, are rushing to the window to bet the Bruins these days. UCLA is 1-8 in its last nine games and off an embarrassing, 90-44, road loss to Utah this past Thursday.

But now the Bruins are returning home and I'm buying low on them as home underdogs to mediocre Washington, which ranks 277th defensively.

Clearly this is a circle-the-wagons game for UCLA. The Bruins have owned the Huskies winning the past nine times.

UCLA is way overdue. The Bruins are going to have tremendous motivation. This is the spot to back them.

San Diego State isn't the same on the road. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in away and neutral site games this season. 

New Mexico has one of the top home floor edges. That's held true again this season as the Lobos are 8-0 SU at home. They've covered six of their seven lined home games.

The Lobos should be up for this matchup after losing, 83-73, on the road to Las Vegas this past Tuesday.

Dayton has won nine in a row. The Flyers shouldn't be an underdog to Duquesne.

The Flyers are road-tested playing Houston and LSU on neutral courts and winning at SMU, Cincinnati and Davidson.

Duquesne's 6-1 home record is misleading. The Dukes have played extremely easy competition at home. The best team they hosted was Princeton and they lost straight-up to the Tigers as a six-point favorite.

Dayton ranks fourth in the country in 3-point shooting hitting 40.5 percent. Duquesne's biggest defensive weakness is 3-point defense.

I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. 

Picked to finish last in the Big Ten Conference by the media, Minnesota is a surprising 12-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten with a 3-1 league mark. The Gophers are off narrow victories against Michigan and Maryland. They've won seven in a row.

But I see reality closing in on Minnesota. The Gophers' next four games are this one at Indiana, then Iowa followed by a road game at Michigan State and then Wisconsin. 

Minnesota only has played two true road games. Indiana is 8-1 at home this season.

The Hooisers should be highly motivated for this matchup after losing, 66-57, on the road to Rutgers this past Tuesday. Indiana was an embarrassing 4-of-15 from the foul line in that loss. 

The 11-5 Hooisers are not a good free throw shooting team, but they do connect on 48.4 percent of their field goal attempts. That rates 35th in the country.

I find this line short. Towson is 6-0 at home. Stony Brook hosted Towson last year and lost, 67-55. Towson is superior to the Seawolves again this season.

Towson has huge edges defensively and on the boards. The Tigers rank 34th defensively. They have given up an average of only 54 points in their last four games. They rank fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding. The Tigers had 11 more rebounds than Stony Brook in last year's game.

Stony Brook ranks 306th in defensive rebounding and is 340th in the nation in 3-point defense.

I'm looking for a strong bounce back effort from Davidson at home after the Wildcats lost its Atlantic-10 opener six days ago to Dayton, 72-59. That was the Wildcats' first home defeat in seven games and also halted a seven-game win streak. Davidson had a bad shooting night, while Dayton was hot making 50 percent of its shots from the floor.

Davidson matches up much better against Rhode Island.  

The Wildcats are the stronger defensive team, has a much better turnover ratio than the Rams and has a deeper bench. The Rams give up six more points per game than Davidson and rank 283rd in 3-point defense. The Rams also rate 284th in turnovers.

Getting even a basket with Iowa State is huge in this matchup of defensive giants.

The Cyclones had their six-game win streak halted on the road by 11th-ranked Oklahoma State this past Saturday. I like the Cyclones to get back on the winning track at home. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.

Houston is unbeaten. But five of the Cougars' last six games have been against extremely easy foes.

BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams.

And the Cougars haven't even been 100 percent - until now. Expected to play is defensive ace Fousseyni Traore, who is the Cougars' sixth-leading scorer. He had missed December because of a hamstring injury.

The 12th-ranked Cougars are ready to make their Big 12 debut against Cincinnati, another newcomer to the esteemed Big 12 Conference.

BYU is a legitimate 12-1. All of its victories have been by at least nine points. The Cougars average 90.4 points and hold their foes to an average of 61.5 points.

Cincinnati is 11-2, but that record is bogus given the soft schedule the Bearcats have played. This is just the Bearcats' third true road game of the season.

Cincinnati failed to cover as 12 1/2-point road favorites against Howard needing overtime to win, 86-81. The Bearcats lost on the road to Xavier, 84-79, as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati also has played one neutral site game. That was against Dayton. The Bearcats were 5 1/2-point favorites and lost, 82-68.

Given their road woes and soft schedule, I don't see the Bearcats staying within double-digits of the powerful Cougars.

Butler has never beaten Connecticut in seven tries. Butler has never kept the final score below double-digits either in any of its losses to Connecticut. Maybe the Bulldogs can keep this game in single digits, but I don't see them pulling the upset.

There are reasons why Butler has never defeated the Huskies. The Bulldogs can't match that talent level, size and athletic ability.

Connecticut is fourth-ranked in the country. The Huskies are playing well going 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their past six games.

Butler is not in good form having lost its past two games. Those losses were to St. John's by 16 points and to Providence in overtime. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five board games.

Texas Arlington is underpriced here. The Mavericks have played a tougher schedule than Tarleton State. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games. This includes the Mavericks covering against Texas, Texas Tech and Grand Canyon, who they led in the second half against. 

Tarleton State has been favored twice in the last four weeks and failed to cover each time. The Texans nearly lost to Texas Rio Grande Valley as a 10 1/2-point home favorite.

Top-ranked Purdue has one loss this season. That defeat occurred to Northwestern on the road. It happened to be the Boilermakers' lone true road game this season.

Now Purdue travels to Maryland to face the Terps, who have a powerful home court edge. Maryland has won 19 consecutive home contests, the fourth-longest streak in Division I.

The Boilermakers didn't fare well at Maryland last season losing, 68-54.

The Terrapins have the interior defense to control Zach Edey.

Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category. 

The Vikings won't lack motivation either after losing in embarrassing fashion to Eastern Washington, 91-57, as 3-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. 
The Vandals are a bit fat and happy after they halted a two-game losing streak with a 61-58 home win against Sacramento State as 3-point favorites. Idaho is averaging only 56.6 points in its last three games vs board teams. 

Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener.

The Golden Bears are going to slow down the pace under first-year coach Mark Madsen. This is a plus in getting this many points. So is the Golden Bears getting Devin Askew back from injury. He averaged 15.5 points last season. Cal has three other good players in Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq and Jalen Cone. Those three are averaging a combined 52 points a game.

I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games.

UTSA nearly upset Oregon State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog two games ago. The Roadrunners suffered a one-point, last-second defeat. Now they're home and dropping well down in class.

Prairie View A&M is one of the worst shooting teams in the country with a field goal percentage of 39.5 percent. The Panthers are bad defensively, too, giving up 76.9 points per game.

UTSA averages nearly 77 points a game and has Christian Tucker, who leads the American Athletic Conference in assists and averages 13 points.

This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home.

Siena is terrible. The Saints also happen to be 2-9 ATS. They are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing by an average of 25.5 points in their past four games. Siena just lost, 95-74, to Cornell as a 12 1/2-point home 'dog. This is significant. Because we have a similar point spread here with the Saints being on the road against Brown, another Ivy League school.

Brown was right behind Cornell as the fourth-best team in the Ivy League preseason poll. The Bears may have the best player in the Ivy League, Kino Lilly. The guard averages nearly 19 points. He's supported by an experienced and deep frontcourt.

I have Brown winning this game by 16-to-18 points.

UNLV is in action for the first time since upsetting No. 8 ranked Creighton this past Wednesday. It was the Rebels' highest-ranked win since 2020. I'm looking for a Rebel letdown against this elite defensive foe in this neutral site tournament matchup in Phoenix.

Saint Mary's had a tough November, but has looked much better this month. The Gaels give up the eighth-fewest points in the country. They just defeated 13th-ranked Colorado State, 64-61, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Rams averaged 83.3 points. So the Gaels held them to 22 points below their season average. 

Saint Mary's has held four of its last five foes to 63 or fewer points. The Rebels can't come close to matching that quality of defense. 
UNLV is ranked 101st in the KenPom rankings. Saint Mary's is rated 62nd. 

The gap is large enough and the situation ripe enough to lay this number with the Gaels.

These in-state rivals just played 13 days ago in The Pit at New Mexico. It was no contest. New Mexico buried the Aggies, 106-62. The Lobos made 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range for 56 percent. New Mexico State missed 15 of its 18 3-point shots for 17 percent.

I don't expect that kind of shooting discrepancy, nor do I believe the Lobos will blow out the Aggies again especially with this rematch being in Las Cruces.

That blowout in the first game was unusual for this Rio Grande Rivalry. New Mexico State is 6-4 during the past 10 games against New Mexico. The Aggies hadn't lost by double-digits during this span until that defeat.

So I'm to ride with the Aggies in this rapid revenge spot.

Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.

But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.

I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.

The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.

It's a short college basketball board today, but I'm getting involved in a game involving small conference West Coast teams. I like Cal State Northridge to win at home against Utah Tech.

My handicap is based on three main things: Cal State Northridge averages 75 points at home, is the much better free throw shooting team and stronger on the boards.

Utah Tech averages fewer than 70 points a game and shoots just 68 percent from the foul line. The Trailblazers just lost, 63-62, as 7 1/2-point favorites at home two days ago. That can't do much for their confidence.

Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points.

Wagner is 2-0 at home. The Seahawks have a top-40 defense, have played a tougher schedule and are in good current form winning three of their last four, including the past two.

So I find Wagner worth backing in this spot in this price range.

I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue.

Illinois lost by seven points at home to Marquette. Wisconsin beat Marquette by nine points just two games ago. Tennessee defeated Wisconsin by 10 points on the road.

A key for Tennessee is getting inside production from big men Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka, which they've started to get.

An early start matchup at a neutral site doesn't bode well for as high as scoring game as the oddsmaker projects here. Tulane has shot better than 50 percent from the field in six of its seven games this season. However, the Green Wave have faced an easy schedule. Mississippi State is the toughest defense they have encountered so far.


Mississippi State has played four straight Unders. The Bulldogs play slow and are on a cold streak. They haven't reached 60 points in either of their last two games.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

I believe in the due factor. It's going to show up here. Villanova has lost its last two games as double-digit favorites against fellow Philadelphia teams, St. Joe's and Drexel. The Wildcats had won and covered their previous four games.

Now the Wildcats take on Kansas State in Manhattan, Kan. in a Big 12/Big East battle. Kansas State is 6-2. The Wildcats aren't as good as their record, though. They could be 3-5 if they would have gone 0-3 in their overtime games instead of 3-0. Two of Kansas State's overtime victories came at home against Oral Roberts and North Alabama. The Wildcats were 13 1/2-point favorites and 19 1/2-point favorites in those contests. Those are the Wildcats' last two games.

The Wildcats made it to the final 8 in the NCAA Tournament last season. But no longer have the two best players from that team, Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Their top returner is Nae'Qwan Tomlin and he's out due to suspension.

I find this total to be too high, an overreaction to each team's last game.

Iowa rolled past North Florida, 103-78, in its previous game this past Wednesday. That was a quick-paced game with North Florida throwing up 31 3-point shots. Purdue is not like that.

The Boilermakers lost, 92-88, as 5 1/2-point road favorites to Northwestern in their last game, which was three days ago. That game went into overtime. The score was 76-76 after regulation.

Purdue has a problem with turnovers, committing 15 or more in three of its last four games. The Boilermakers, though, usually are stout defensively. They rank 34th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 15th in 3-point defense.

This also is a Big Ten matchup where defense is stressed.

I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team.

The Bluejays are a top-40 scoring and defensive team. They rank 18th in 3-point field goal accuracy. The Bluejays also are a much better rebounding team than Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers have been favored in each of their previous seven games. Their schedule has been so weak they've been favored by at least 14 1/2 points in five of their seven games. Nebraska still doesn't have its full complement of rotation players either.

Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup.

Nevada is good. Loyola Marymount is an average West Coast Conference team. The Lions are 5-3, but have played very weak competition. Their victories have been against Westcliff, Jackson State, FIU, UTEP and Central Arkansas. The Lions' losses have occurred to Yale, Stephen F. Austin and Oakland.

It's a step up for the Lions to play on the road against Nevada. A key is Nevada doesn't turn the ball over, ranking fifth in the nation in turnover margin. Loyola Marymount is 216th in that important category.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season.

Both teams, though, have been slow out of the gate. Each is 1-5.

I'm not sold on Rider laying road points here. The Broncos' only victory came at home against non-Division I Immaculata. All five of their defeats occurred on the road. They are 1-4 ATS in their road matchups.

The Saints are 25-9 in their home MAAC openers.

Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog.

Louisiana Lafayette has won three in a row. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy, sinking nearly 41 percent of their 3-point attempts.

Samford has played one of the easiest schedules in the land. The Bulldogs haven't defeated an opponent ranked higher than 285th in the KenPom rankings. Yet they are just 1-5 ATS in their lined games.

Samford's biggest weakness is defending against the 3-pointer where it ranks 267th.

I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.

Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.

Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.

This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.

Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.

Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.

It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players. 

Bellarmine is improving. The Knights covered against Kansas State, losing 83-75, on the road and blew out Bowling Green on the road. They are tested and dangerous to West Virginia in this spot.

No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament. 

BYU, on the other hand, is riding high at 5-0. One of the Cougars' wins was against then 17th-ranked San Diego State, 74-65, at home. 

No doubt BYU will be ASU's most difficult opponent. But the Sun Devils have been a good 'dog team, have had substantial prep time and are drawing good line value.

I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.

New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.

Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland.

The Pilots do two things: Turn the ball over frequently and miss a lot of 3-point shots. Portland averages 18 turnovers a game and ranks 267th in 3-point accuracy. 

Nevada commits the 11th-fewest turnovers in the nation. The disciplined WolfPack should cover this number being home and matching up well to Portland. 

Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.

The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.

The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.

This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.

I regard these teams as even. So does the KenPom rankings, which list Nevada 69th and Washington 70th.

So I see value taking this many points. The Wolf Pack have the good guards needed to hit 3-pointers and get to the free throw line against the Huskies' 2-3 zone defense they constantly employ.

Nevada also has the size necessary to rebound with tall Washington. 

The Huskies hosted Northern Kentucky in their last game. The Huskies failed to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites, winning by only eight. It was not an impressive win. 

I want Saint Mary's going for me in this spot. This is a monster revenge game for the Gaels. They've had this game circled ever since New Mexico upset them as a nine-point road underdog, 69-65, last season. That halted the Gaels' 23-game home win streak.

Credit to the Lobos for that great upset win, but I fear them a lot less when they are on the road.

New Mexico is an NIT team. Saint Mary's was a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and has many returning players.

UNC Asheville isn't getting enough respect here. The Bulldogs won the Big South last season to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. They finished 27-7.

Michigan is in regroup mode after losing Hunter Dickinson, their top scorer and rebounder. He transferred to Kansas. The Wolverines also lost guards Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin, both of whom were selected in the NBA draft. Michigan also doesn't have Jace Howard, who is out with a stress fracture to his knee. Wolverines coach Juwan Howard underwent heart surgery in September so he's in recovery.

The timing is ripe for Asheville to spring a major upset.

Northern Iowa should be much improved from its 12-20 record of last season. The Panthers return nine of its top 10 scorers along with having three highly touted freshmen. Two of the Panthers' returners, Tylan Anderson and Bowen Born, were named to the All-Missouri Valley preseason all-conference team.

North Texas was an impressive 31-7 last season. However, the Mean Green lost their three top scorers. They don't have the bench strength that Northern Iowa has.

I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch.

The Commodores have a deep and athletic backcourt headed by returning guards, Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence.

Presbyterian is off a 5-27 season in which it lost its last 18 games. The Blue Hose was picked to finish last in the Big South during the league's preseason poll. Their two top scorers transferred and they are breaking in eight new players. The Blue Hose lack the athleticism to slow down Vanderbilt's guards.

College of Charleston went 31-4  last season, reaching No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll and earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars should be good again with a strong junior class and balanced scoring. 

I like the Cougars to take care of business at home against Iona, which has a new coach and only one returning player, Osborn Shema. He was the Gaels' sixth-leading scorer last season. 

Iona's new coach is Tobin Anderson, who has had only one year of Division I coaching experience. It's going to take time for the Gaels to jell and get the right rotation with a roster nearly full of new players.

There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number.

Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively.

However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that.

Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams.

Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here.

There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's not to the Over.

San Diego State is an Under machine. The Aztecs have gone Under in their last 12 games and 14 of their past 15! Florida Atlantic is a big-scoring team reliant on 3-point accuracy. But the Owls haven't faced a 3-point defense as good as San Diego State. The Aztecs have held foes to below 28 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 40 in defensive field goal percentage. The Owls have given up an average of fewer than 65 points during their seven post-season games, five of which went Under. San Diego State doesn't have a player who averages even 11 points a game in the NCAA Tournament.

The game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston. That's a football stadium where the Texans play. It's a huge structure with an unusual shooting backdrop for college basketball teams. It's a huge plus for the Under.

Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road.

The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor.

UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers.

Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games.

I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament.

Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense.

Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves.

Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament.

It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside.

Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points.

I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me.

Florida Atlantic is on house money having never advanced this far. The Owls have a strong backcourt. But I'm going with Kansas State coming out of the Big 12 and having two star players, point guard Markquis Nowell and Keyonate Johnson. There might not have been a tougher conference in the country than the Big 12.

Nowell and Johnson give Kansas State the talent edge.

Nowell, averaging 17.2 points, 8.1 assists and 2.5 steals, has been the star of the tournament. He sparked the Wildcats past Michigan State and Kentucky.

Kansas State has covered 77 percent during their past 22 games against above .500 opponents going 17-5.

Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th.

Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game.

Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns.

The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Tom Izzo is a great coach. But Michigan State is getting too much respect here because of that. Kansas State is the better team. So I'll back the Wildcats in an underdog role. 

The Wildcats have been underrated on the line all season. They have covered 16 of the past 21 times versus above .500 opponents. 

Michigan State missed 14 of 16 3-point shots in its win against Marquette. The Spartans won't survive Kansas State if they don't shoot a whole lot better from beyond the arc. The Wildcats have the superior defense. They rank 13th in 3-point defense. 

The Spartans are averaging just 66.3 points in their last three games. 

Both team's defenses were solid during the regular season. But they've each stepped up during the postseason. Now, with ample time to prepare, expect both defenses to be at their finest.

Michigan State has a top-100 defense. The Spartans rank 33rd in 3-point defense. They've held their past three opponents to an average of 63.3 points. This includes holding Marquette to 21 points under its season average. Coaching guru Tom Izzo has plenty of time to work on defensive schemes designed to bother this specific opponent. Look for Michigan State to play at a slow tempo.

Kansas State has been a high level defensive team since last month. The Wildcats are giving up an average of 67 points during their last two games. They just held Kentucky six points under its season average.

Note the Madison Square Garden venue, too. This is a huge arena making it tough for teams unfamiliar with this arena to shoot a high percentage.

Oddsmaker opened Vanderbilt the favorite. Wrong. Alabama-Birmingham is the better team. That's the way the marketplace has so far reacted and I'm in agreement.

Vanderbilt is home and off an impressive victory against big-name Michigan. So it's understandable why the oddsmaker opened the Commodores the favorite.

But UAB is hot - 14-2 in its last 16 games, including six straight wins - and holds several key edges.

The Blazers have a rebounding edge being one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Commodores are minus their top rebounder, injured Liam Robbins. UAB also has a deeper bench. This is important, too, because the Blazers play at an extremely fast tempo. Vanderbilt has a shorter rotation making it more vulnerable to getting worn down, especially this late in the season.

Both teams played Southern Mississippi. The Blazers buried Southern Mississippi, 88-60, in their first-round NIT game. Vanderbilt lost to Southern Mississippi, 60-48, at home early in the season.

UAB is coached by Andy Kennedy, who knows the SEC well having been the head coach at Mississippi. The Blazers are 2-0 versus SEC teams this season beating Georgia at a neutral site and South Carolina at home.

I like San Jose State to win this College Basketball Invitational matchup by double-digits. 

The Spartans play in the superior conference being in the Mountain West Conference compared to Radford, which finished third in the Big South Conference. San Jose State plays strong defense, is in better current form than Radford, is the superior rebounding team and much better at the free throw line.

San Jose State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Spartans have been playing tremendous defense giving up an average of 58.8 points during their last seven games. 

Radford averages fewer than 70 points a game. The Highlanders are 290th in free throw percentage at 68.8 percent. Radford has a losing record in its last seven games. 

San Jose State has been a reliable point spread team covering 20 of its last 28 games for 71 percent. 

Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU.

Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.

I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy.

TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory.

Strength of schedule means a lot when getting involved in the College Basketball Invitational Tournament.

I have Tarleton State power-rated higher than Radford. Key reasons for that is the superior competition the Texans played along with being in the Western Athletic Conference. Radford, out of the Big South Conference, was 275th in strength of schedule.

Tarleton State faced the 16th-toughest non-conference schedule. The Texans beat Belmont, which won 21 games, and Boston College of the ACC. The Texans also played NCAA Tournament teams Arizona State, Baylor and Drake.

Radford also is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Penn State has the right combination to upset Texas. The Nittany Lions are peaking at the perfect time going 9-2 in their last 11 games, covering in their past five matchup.

The Nittany Lions have a great guard in Jalen Pickett. They have veterans who don't get rattled and are tremendous as underdogs covering the past nine times in that role. Penn State also is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 SU the past seven times they've played a tournament team.

The pressure is all on Texas. The Longhorns haven't responded well before to this type of pressure going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry lacks NCAA Tournament experience. So that's a question mark.

Penn State is 21-8-1 (72 percent) ATS the past 30 times when playing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

Houston may be the top seed in the Midwest Regional, but the Cougars are in trouble against Auburn. The Cougars haven't been playing well going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. They lost by 10 points to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game and only beat 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky, 63-52, this past Thursday in their first-round NCAA Tournament game.

Star guard Marcus Sasser aggravated a groin injury against Northern Kentucky. His status is questionable. Jamal Shead, Houston's top assists player, also isn't 100 percent with a knee injury.

Auburn is a tough opponent for the Cougars. The Tigers are playing excellent defense, not turning the ball over and are battle tested having dealt with upper tier competition being in the SEC.

Auburn beat Iowa, 83-75, to win its 11th straight opening-round NCAA Tournament game. The Tigers took No. 1 ranked Alabama to overtime on the road and beat Tennessee by nine points during their last two regular season games. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

Princeton successfully outrebounded and slowed down Arizona, 59-55, in their first-round NCAA Tournament victory. The Tigers certainly can do the same to Missouri.

The Tigers held Arizona to 28 points below its season average. Missouri held Utah State to 14 points below the Aggies' season average in a 76-65 first-round tournament win on Thursday. 

No way Princeton gets into a track meet with Missouri so I find this total too high especially because Princeton also is very strong on the defensive glass, ranking in the top 10 in defensive rebounding. 

The Under has cashed six of the last seven times Princeton has played on a neutral court. 

Missouri is underrated defensively in this matchup with its defensive statistics skewed playing in the SEC. Now the Tigers are facing an Ivy League opponent. 

Missouri held Utah State to 4-of-24 shooting from 3-point range. Princeton missed 21 of 25 3-point shots against Arizona. Princeton is a below average 3-point shooting team so the Tigers should not be able to hurt Missouri from beyond the arc. 

This is my Game of the Week.

Drake is a trendy pick to upset Miami in this NCAA Tournament matchup. But I don't see the Bulldogs pulling the upset even if the Hurricanes don't have Norchad Omier, their second-leading rebounder. He's questionable after suffering a knee injury against Duke last Friday.

Miami has many other scorers, including star guard and ACC Player of the Year, Isaiah Wong.

I respect Drake and the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake demolishing Bradley in the MVC Tournament title game, though, is less impressive after the Braves were buried by Big Ten disappointment Wisconsin in the NIT.

Miami is the superior team having beaten ranked opponents Virginia, Clemson and Pittsburgh along with scoring non-conference wins against Providence, Central Florida and Rutgers. Drake doesn't have that kind of resume.

I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. 
Texas has the outstanding guard play, experience, depth and defense to make a serious run in the tournament. 

Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. 

The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. 

Utah State and Missouri are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. Utah State averages 79.1 points while the Tigers average 80.1 points.
So why get involved in this track meet? 

Because Missouri is the superior team. I largely base this opinion on the quality of opponents each team has played. Utah State finishing second in the Mountain West Conference doesn't impress me as much as Missouri finishing fourth in the SEC. Missouri also has a number of significant victories that Utah State lacks. 

The Tigers have the potential to go far in this tournament. Something I can't envision for Utah State. 

Missouri struggled against high-level, elite talent teams such as Alabama and Kansas. Utah State isn't nearly in that class. The Tigers scored numerous impressive victories that Utah State didn't achieve. I point to the Tigers scoring 93 points in an 18-point neutral court win against Illinois, scoring 78 points in a 17-point win against Iowa State and beating Tennessee twice, including posting 86 points against the Volunteers on the road. 

Missouri is 22-0 this season when scoring at least 70 points. Utah State allows an average of 70 points a game. The Aggies also rank 294th in defensive 3-point percentage. Missouri can exploit that. 

Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State.

The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.

Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival.

The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points.

I'm going to ride Texas Southern's momentum and point spread record at neutral sites in this NCAA Tournament play-in game at Dayton, Ohio.

The Tigers upset both Alcorn State and Grambling on their way to winning their third straight Southwest Athletic Conference title. 

Texas Southern is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. 

Fairleigh Dickinson would not even be in this position if Merrimack had been eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament. 

Fairleigh Dickinson is 2-10 ATS in its last dozen neutral site contests. 

Two slow tempo teams. Two strong defensive clubs. Plus injuries. Factor all of that in and you have the basis for a strong Under play here.

Villanova is one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. The Wildcats are facing a Liberty defense that ranks eighth in the country surrendering only 60.2 points a game. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass.

The Wildcats have four players who score in double figures. Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore are two of them - and both could be out due to soreness and in Whitmore's case an eye injury.

Credit to Southeast Missouri State capturing the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as a No. 5 seed. But I don't see the Redhawks getting past Texas A&M Corpus Christi.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is hot, winning 12 of its last 13 games, and are battle tested. The Islanders captured the Southland Conference Tournament title for the second year in a row. They also won the regular season championship. Southeast Missouri State last made the NCAA Tournament 23 years ago.

Both teams play fast and can score. The big difference is at the free throw line. Southeast Missouri State ranks 226th in free throw percentage. The Islanders rank fifth in the nation in free throw percentage at 79.1 percent.

I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. 

Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points.

Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game.

The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points.

Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation.

A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points.

Santa Barbara is riding a lot of momentum and had the easier path to reach this game. The Gauchos have won their last six games going 5-0-1 ATS.

Cal-State Fullerton had to go overtime to beat Hawaii this past Thursday and then upset Cal-Irvine in a tough game last night. 

These teams are close defensively, but the Gauchos shoot the ball far better than the Titans. 

Utah State averages nearly 80 points a game. But the Aggies are heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting.

San Diego State has an elite defense, especially when it comes to defending 3-pointers. The Aztecs rank 15th in the country in 3-point defense.

The Aztecs are in top defensive form, too. They just held San Jose State to 49 points. San Diego State is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games and 8-2-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

San Diego State beat Utah State in the last meeting. Look for the Aztecs to do it again here.

There were 123 points scored when these teams last met. That was no fluke. These teams play slow and points are at a premium.

That's especially so during the Big West Conference Tournament, which is played at the neutral site of the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nev.

All four Big West Tourney games went Under on Thursday, including Fullerton-Hawaii, which went to overtime. All together, the Under has cashed in five of the six Big West Tourney games.

Fullerton has not scored more than 62 points in regulation during its last four games. Irvine is averaging 53.3 points in its last three games.

I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. 

Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. 

Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. 
Grand Canyon was three games worse than Sam Houston State during the Western Athletic Conference regular season. The Lopes are 22-11 on the season. 

Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.  

Washington State is peaking at the right time. The Cougars have won their last seven games. I like their chances against Oregon, which hasn't played in five days, in this Pac-12 Conference Tournament matchup.

Oregon has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 neutral site games.

The teams just met on Feb. 19 at Washington State and the Cougars won, 68-65.

Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road.

I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas.

Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games.

San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team.

Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside.

Georgetown has failed to break 70 points during its last five games. The Hoyas managed only 59 points against Creighton in their last game.

Villanova gives up fewer than 68 points per game on the season. The Hoyas are going to have to earn their points the hard way as they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

This should be a very slow-paced game. Villanova plays at the slowest tempo of any Big East team.

Note, too, the venue: Madison Square Garden. This is a spacious arena with a history of Unders. The Under has cashed 69 percent of the time during the past 39 instances when there has been a total of 136 or higher at this arena in postseason college games.

I get that it's been a very disappointing season for Wisconsin, who are 17-13 and went 9-11 in the Big Ten. But the Badgers underdogs to Ohio State? No way.

The Buckeyes are 13-18, 5-15 in the Big Ten. They had a prolonged stretch where they went 1-14 in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes aren't winning five games in five days through the Big Ten Conference Tournament gauntlet to make the NCAA Tournament - and they know it.

Wisconsin is capable of beating any team, something Ohio State isn't. The Badgers defeated sixth-ranked Marquette and took third-ranked Kansas to overtime. The Badgers are a bubble team. They know they must win at least the next three games to stay in realistic contention for an NCAA Tournament bid.

The Badgers have an elite defense, giving up 63.8 points. That ranks them 33rd in the nation and is six points fewer per game than Ohio State allows.

Wisconsin holds a big coaching edge, too, with Greg Gard against Chris Holtmann.

The teams met once during the regular season. The Badgers beat the Buckeyes, 65-60, at Ohio State. Now they're playing at a neutral site.