A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic.
But two major things haven't changed. Tom Izzo still can't beat Duke. The Spartans are 1-8 versus the Blue Devils under Izzo and Michigan State still has no answer for big man Jahil Okafor.
Both teams are playing strong defense. The Spartans, though, can't match up to Duke's top-end talent.
Okafor destroyed the Spartans in the first meeting. The Spartans can't get around that. If they double-team Okafor, the Blue Devils have the excellent perimeter game to take advantage especially from 3-point range.
The Spartans have overachieved to get this far. Duke is a legitimate top three team with perhaps the second-best talent in the country next to Kentucky. The Blue Devils have the big man, pedigree and coaching to get it done again with a convincing victory. They are 18-7-1 (72%) ATS the past 26 times when facing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. 

I want the Pac-12 team going for me here at this short point spread range against Old Dominion of Conference USA. The Monarchs joined Conference USA just two years ago making the jump from the Colonial Athletic Association.
This was a strong year in the Pac 12. Stanford has faced stiffer competition and has the much superior offense.
Old Dominion averages nearly eight points fewer per game than Stanford. The Monarchs do not shoot well from the floor nor foul line. Their best player by far is point guard Trey Freeman, who is dealing with a sore ankle and likely won't be 100 percent.
The Monarchs have played their last three games at home inside their small, compact gym. Now they have to make the adjustment to spacious and intimidating Madison Square Garden. Stanford is more experienced with higher profile games. The Cardinal should be able to handle the pressure better than the Monarchs mentally and physically.
Stanford led the Pac-12 in fewest turnovers per game at 10.7. If Old Dominion can't be disruptive defensively the Monarchs are in deep trouble because they have no offense to fall back on.
Old Dominion has been living on borrowed time winning its last two NIT games by a combined four points, including nipping Murray State at the buzzer on a 30-foot 3-pointer. Now the Monarchs step up in class. Expect their luck to run out.

 

This is too high of a total with Old Dominion involved even with the new shot clock rule in place. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow pace and are very strong defensively. Only seven teams in the country gave up fewer points per game than Old Dominion, which has held foes to 56.8 points a game.  
Only Murray State, which ranked eighth in the nation in scoring, has been able to break the 60-point barrier against Old Dominion during the Monarchs' last nine games. The Racers scored 69 against Old Dominion in the quarterfinals of the NIT, which was 10 points below their season average.
Stanford averages less than 69 points a game when playing on a neutral floor. The Cardinal aren't going to get as many touches as they normally do because of Old Dominion's slow-down style, which can frustrate opponents.
Stanford isn't as strong defensively as Old Dominion. But that's offset by the Monarchs' weak offense that averages 65.1 points per contest. That averages shrinks to 57.5 on neutral courts. Old Dominion is neither a good shooting team from the field nor free throw line.
Point guard Trey Freeman is Old Dominion's best player and key. He scored 25 points against Murray State despite playing on a tender ankle that he recently sprained in practice. This is what Freeman said after the Monarchs edged Murray State this past Wednesday. "My foot hurt after the game. It was swollen up and everything was tight." So there is no guarantee Freeman will be 100 percent.
Since this is a semifinal matchup of the NIT the game is being held at Madison Square Garden. This is a large venue that can be very distracting for shooting especially for teams not having experienced it before. Both teams also are going to feel the pressure of performing in the Big Apple.
Stanford has to come cross-country while the Monarchs have played their last three games at their small gym. Neither team is going to be helped offensively by playing at this venue.

I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones.
The Wolfpack showed they were capable of big things if getting on a roll owning victories against Duke and North Carolina.
North Carolina State has a very strong backcourt - much better than Louisville's - with excellent guards and its frontcourt players are stepping up. This is the winning formula for the Wolfpack as the Cardinals can't match NCS's guard play.
I'm not impressed with the Cardinals. I believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, Louisville stepped up to beat Northern Iowa, 66-53, this past Sunday. But this is not one of Rick Pitino's stronger Cardinal teams. Northern Iowa doesn't have NC State's athleticism. Neither does Cal Irvine of the Big West Conference. Those were the two teams Louisville beat to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina State has a dynamic, deep backcourt and athletic frontcourt players, the kind that cause problems for the Cardinals.  
Freshman Quentin Snider is replacing the suspended senior Jones. He's played well in the tournament - so far. I think Jones' absence, though, will be particularly noticed in this matchup.
The teams met on Feb. 14 in Louisville - and North Carolina State won, 74-65. The Wolfpack held the Cardinals to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor. That's not a fluke as the Cardinals are not a good shooting team especially from 3-point range where they ranked 312th.

The marketplace has been betting this total up partly because rugged 6-foot-9 North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks isn't likely to play because of a knee sprain. Meeks leads the Tar Heels in blocked shots, but he also averages better than 11 points a game and is North Carolina's most accurate shooter making 56.5 percent of his field goals.
If Meeks can't play he would be replaced by another big inside man, 6-10, 280-pound Joel James.
The Tar Heels are going to want to run. Wisconsin isn't going to let that happen. The Badgers have a very efficient offense with no weak parts. But they've always been about defense under defensive guru Bo Ryan, who is even more dangerous with extra preparation time.
The Badgers rank 10th in the country in scoring defense giving up 56.8 points per game. That average shrinks even lower to 56 on the road. Wisconsin gives up the fewest points off turnovers of any team in the country. North Carolina thrives off turnovers and in transition, but that isn't going to happen here. I don't trust Marcus Paige against a defense as savvy as Wisconsin's.
Paige is better going against up-temp teams. The Tar Heels had problems against slow-paced Harvard in their opening NCAA Tournament game winning just 67-65 while turning the ball over 18 times. The combined score of 132 went under.
North Carolina is a bit underrated defensively. The Tar Heels held 23 of their 37 opponents to 40 percent shooting or less from the floor.
Badgers guard Traevon Jackson is going to play for the first time since breaking his foot on Jan. 11. Jackson has looked rusty in practice, which is understandable. So while his minutes could be down from the more than 27 minutes he averaged before his injury, Wisconsin's offense might suffer while he's back in the lineup.   

Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark.
Old Dominion is overrated. The Monarchs are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times going against an opponent with a winning mark. Their star point guard, Trey Freeman, is limping on a sprained ankle. Even if Freeman were 100 percent, the Monarchs would be hard-pressed to match up against Murray State's strong backcourt.
Against four common opponents - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State and UTEP -  Old Dominion went 2-5 while Murray State went 4-0 winning each game by double-digits.
Old Dominion is strong defensively, but Murray State can score on any team. The Racers put up 83 in their last game upsetting a top-40 defensive team, Tulsa, on the road.

Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season.

Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts.

The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage.

The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover.

The under has cashed the past seven times in Seattle's home games. It's easy to see why. The last nine games played in Seattle have averaged less than a combined 107 points per game. 

Seattle ranks 51st in defense. The Redhawks are especially tough defensively at home allowing 56.1 points per game on 37.3 percent shooting from the floor. The Redhawks play at a slow pace, too, which is huge for the under. 

Colorado averages 69.1 points per game game, but that averages goes down six points a game when it is on the road. 

Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player.
Yet, the Monarchs are favored. What gives? Old Dominion is playing at home. That's what. The Monarchs own a 22-game home win streak at "The Ted," including going 18-0 this season.
Still, Old Dominion shouldn't rate favorite status in this matchup. Illinois State has a winning road record. One of the Redbirds' road victories occurred against NCAA Tournament entrant Alabama-Birmingham, which defeated Old Dominion in a Conference USA game. A sell out isn't expected. The Monarchs averaged 7,132 fans during the regular season. They had around 4,700 fans for their first round NIT game and as of Saturday afternoon had only sold around 2,500 tickets for this game. NIT games don't excite the home faithful like NCAA Tournament games do.
The Redbirds have covered in six of their last seven nonconference matchups. Old Dominion is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus foes with a winning record.
Old Dominion suffered its worst defeat of the season - and lowest point production - in a 64-45 loss to Illinois State in the Paradise Jam on Nov. 23. The Monarchs never could figure out Illinois State's mixed zone defenses. They also were outrebounded by 11 boards. The Monarchs rank 241st in 3-point shooting and 245th in free throw percentage. The Redbirds hold foes to an average of 62.4 points per game.
The Monarch's also may be missing their best player, junior point guard Trey Freeman. He leads the team in scoring and assists. Freeman, a first team All-Conference USA selection, sprained his ankle in practice this past Saturday and is questionable to play. If he does play he's unlikely to be 100 percent.

  

This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country.
Virginia is just as disciplined as Michigan State with a similar grind-it-out offense. The Cavaliers are plain better up and down the rotation especially with their best all-around player, Justin Anderson, having his timing and sea legs back since returning from a broken finger.
Virginia won the always tough Atlantic Coast Conference. Its only defeats were to Duke, Louisville and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia has secretly been hoping for this matchup. The Cavaliers want to revenge last year's 61-59 loss to Michigan State in a Sweet 16 matchup.
The Spartans lack the offensive firepower and go-to guy to successfully score on Virginia's dominant defense that gave up just 51. 2 points per game. The Cavaliers' fierce defense gets all the media attention, but they also ranked 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Nothing against Villanova. The Wildcats are very good. I just don't believe North Carolina State is getting enough respect here. The Wolfpack don't have any major weaknesses. They are a tough ACC team and have proven resilient coming from a late 14-point second half deficit to beat LSU in their opening round NCAA Tournament game.
The Wolfpack have defeated Duke and won road games against Louisville and North Carolina. An added plus for the Wolfpack is the return of Anthony Barber, who is averaging 17.5 points during his last 11 games.
Villanova may not be as sharp coming off an easy win against an easy first round tournament opponent, Lafayette.

Arizona wasn't thrilled allowing Texas Southern to score 72 points. I'm expecting a stronger Wildcats' defensive effort against Ohio State.
Ohio State allows just 62.7 points per game. Arizona struggles to score when facing strong defenses. So under is the way to go in this matchup.

UCLA is coming on. The Bruins' young talent has come together winning five of their last six with their only defeat coming to Arizona in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.

Back in November, when they still were far from peaking, the Bruins beat the Blazers by 12 in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas.

UAB isn't very good and the Blazers are going to have problems coming down from their monster upset of Iowa State. The Blazers were lucky to win the Conference USA Tournament, which they hosted, or they wouldn't have received a bid to the NCAA Tournament having finished fourth in the conference during the regular season.

Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.
Dunn is a great all-around guard, who also was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Henton led the Big East in scoring and was seventh in rebounding.
Dayton ranked 300th in the country in rebounding. The Flyers, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference matchups, don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6 in their rotation. Providence, by contrast, has four players who are 6-8 or taller, including two 7-footers. This number doesn't even include Henton, who is 6-6.
Dayton needed home-court advantage to reach this level nipping Boise State, a team from what was a weak Mountain West Conference this year, by one point this past Wednesday. The Flyers came from nine points down to accomplish the feat. I doubt the Flyers would have defeated Boise State if they weren't on their home floor.
Providence has covered the last nine times it has played on a neutral floor. The Friars are the better team and catch Dayton, which doesn't have a strong bench, playing for the fifth time in eight days.

Davidson reminds me of Wisconsin except for being smaller. The Wildcats average 79.9 points a game, sixth-highest in the country. They ranked in the top 17 in both 2-point shooting percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Only Wisconsin had a lower turnover percentage than Davidson.
Like Wisconsin, Davidson has that rare combination of shooting well from anyplace on the court while not turning the ball over. They are smart and unselfish just like the Badgers. The Wisconsin comparison is valid and significant because Iowa went 0-2 versus the Badgers losing by an average of 21.5 points.
The Hawkeyes don't shoot nearly as well as Davidson. They ranked 213th in 2-point shooting percentage and 217th in 3-point percentage. They also were 68 spots behind Davidson in turnover percentage.  
Sometimes a late loss can actually spark a team, or at least shake their complacency. That might turn out to be the case with Davidson, which had won 10 in a row before losing in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. The Wildcats won the regular season A-10 title so a letdown in the conference tournament was understandable.
The Wildcats have a strong history when stepping up covering 14 of the last 17 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They also have covered during their last seven non-conference games. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

I don't see Cal Irvine, in its first NCAA Tournament game ever, holding up against the constant pressure of Louisville's outstanding defense. The Anteaters are extremely susceptible to having a spurt or two take them out of the game.
Rick Pitinio has a tremendous track record in the NCAA Tournament with Louisville. The Cardinals have reached the Final Four in two of the past three years capturing the crown in 2013.
Louisville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 NCAA Tournament games. The Cardinals are battled tested coming from the ACC. They hold opponents to less than 60 points a game. The Anteaters are inexperienced and haven't faced anywhere near the competition the Cardinals have coming from the Big West Conference.

Georgetown is nothing special and has a recent history of playing poorly in the NCAA Tournament.
Eastern Washington is a dangerous underdog because the Eagles have that rare combination of making 3-pointers and getting to the rim. They are tough to prepare against. I see them causing plenty of problems for the Hoyas.
The Eagles are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. They beat Indiana on the road and buried Texas Southern, an NCAA Tournament team, by 24 points.
Sparked by guard Tyler Harvey, the Eagles are the third-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.3 points per game. Harvey shoots 43.5 percent from 3-point range and also is an 85 percent foul shooter. He has scored in double figures in every game this season except one and knows how to get to the foul line.  
A key in this matchup is Eastern Washington's long-range shooting. The Eagles have the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the country of any team that shot more than 700 3-pointers on the season. They average 24.7 treys a game. Yet they rank ninth in the nation in 3-point percentage. Georgetown ranks 267th in defending against 3-pointers. So even if Eastern Washington were to fall behind they still have a strong capability to pull off a back-door cover if needed.
The Eagles are a better free throw shooting team than the Hoyas and have an active rebounder in 6-foot-8 Venky Jois, who helps combat Georgetown's height advantage.

Don't get caught up in any hype about Stephen F. Austin being a Cinderella team. Utah isn't taking the Lumberjacks lightly after Stephen F. Austin upset VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.
It's easy to forget the Utes were a top 10 team in February. They haven't fallen that far down. They are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games and have too much size and talent for the Lumberjacks, who don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6.
Stephen F. Austin is a prolific scoring team, but Utah ranked 13th in the country in shooting percentage at 48.5 percent. The Lumberjacks can't match the skill set of 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and guard Delon Wright. They also can't match up to the size of Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, another 7-footer. By contrast, the Lumberjacks' leading rebounder is guard Thomas Walkup.
The Lumberjacks played two NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play this season - Baylor and Xavier. They lost by 16 and 18 points in those games.



  

This year's version of Butler isn't as good as the Brad Stevens' teams of the past. The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in their last eight games and don't match up well to Texas.
The Longhorns opened the season as an elite team. Then they tailed off, but showed signs of regaining their footing down the stretch. Certain teams can give Texas problems. But Butler isn't one of those teams.
Texas led the nation and set a school record in blocks. Butler's top two scorers, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones, are inside players although Dunham can knock down 3-pointers. Butler finished second in the Big East Conference in two-point field goals.
The Longhorns, however, are extremely tall and athletic. They are very tough to score against inside ranking fourth in the country in defensive field goal percentage.

Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games.
Colorado is going to have to go through an adjustment to deal with Gardner-Webb's up-tempo pace. The Bulldogs love to fire up 3-pointers averaging more than 23 per game. They make 8.1 per game. Colorado is 5-8 when its opponent connects on at least eight 3-pointers.
The Bulldogs will be minus Jerome Hill, their leading scorer and rebounder. Hill had not been shooting well, though, going just 8-for-32 from the field during the last two games.
Colorado isn't motivated for this game playing in the College Basketball Invitational, a third tier tournament. The Buffaloes have a short rotation made shorter by their leading scorer, senior guard Askia Booker, skipping the tournament because he didn't deem it worth his time. That's great for team morale.
The Buffaloes are down to seven normal rotation players because sophomore forward Dustin Thomas, who was averaging nearly 17 minutes per game, won't play either because he is transferring to another school.
Booker's loss is huge as he ran the team. Only three players in the country had a higher percentage of shots their team was involved in than Booker. He accounted for 35.9 percent of the shots Colorado took. 
 

First off, this is not an easy trip logistically for Central Michigan getting to Ruston, La., on short notice. The Chippewas don't have a senior nor did they face a tournament team on the road this season. They had a losing spread record away from home, including losing straight-up three times as road chalk.  

Central Michigan lacks the interior defense, too, to slow down Louisiana Tech ranking 301st defending against two-pointers. 

Louisiana Tech is anchored by three senior starters who want desperately to go to Madison Square Garden after falling in the quarterfinals during last year's NIT. Tech is very strong at home having won 29 in a row.  

Central Michigan isn't a strong enough offensive rebounding team to take advantage of Louisiana Tech's rebounding weakness. 

An off-day in their conference tournament and playing on the road. Those are two key reasons why the James Madison Dukes are underdogs to South Carolina State in an opening round College Insider Tournament game.
A couple of books opened the Spartans as 2 1/2-point favorites. Early betting, though, has pushed the Spartans up to this mid range. I thought the books opened a wrong favorite, so I'm happy to fade the marketplace and back the underdog in this price range.
Yes, James Madison laid an egg in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament losing its opening game to fifth-seeded Hofstra. The Dukes simply had an off day. Three of their players had horrible shooting games. It happens.
It can't take away that the Dukes tied a school record for most single-season victories in CAA play, a conference stronger than South Carolina Upstate's Atlantic Sun. The Spartans didn't play anybody. That's why they have a 23-11 record.
Prior to losing to Hofstra, James Madison had won six of its last seven. The Dukes are 6-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. They have covered in eight of their last 10 road contests.

UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis.
Hawaii doesn't have enough time to come down after that surprising win. It's also the first time Hawaii has reached a title game since 2002. The Warriors aren't ready to post back-to-back upsets. They are 3-9 in conference tournament games going back to 2005 and 1-4 ATS the past five times they've played foes with a winning record.
The Anteaters are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they've met a foe with a winning record. They also are 2-0 versus Hawaii this season winning 75-60 at home and 78-72 on the road.

Purdue can't afford a loss here being a bubble team. So the Boilermakers won't lack for motivation. 

The timing is excellent for Purdue, which is rested while Penn State is playing for the fourth time in six days and third time in three days.

Purdue has won nine of its last 12 games.

Penn State is too dependent on D.J. Newbill. That's going to catch up to the Nittany Lions here going against the best team in the Big Ten in defensive field goal percentage.

Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Conference Tournament riding a lot of momentum winning its last five games. During this span, the Gauchos have defeated regular-season champion UC-Davis, UC Irvine, Hawaii and Cal Poly in their last game.
The Gauchos defeated the Mustangs, 64-56, at home this past Saturday. This isn't a surprise. The Gauchos have a better record and more talent than Cal Poly.
Don't look for the second-seeded Gauchos to overlook seventh-seeded Cal Poly. Just last year, the Mustangs buried the Gauchos by 31 points after losing to Santa Barbara five days before the tournament. History won't repeat itself.

Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas.
Seattle tied for being the top defense in the Western Athletic Conference, while the Cougars are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging 58.4 points per game while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. They also are not a good free throw shooting team either.
The Redhawks' strength is their backcourt where Isiah Umipig averages 16.7 points per game and Jarell Flora averages 14.2. Both average more than Chicago State's leading scorer. The Cougars, in fact, have only one player averaging more than nine points a game.
I can't see offensively-challenged Chicago State staying without double digits of Seattle.

Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games.
The Beavers don't have the size and bench to beat Colorado. They have been outrebounded in 13 consecutive games. The Beavers also haven't shown they can win away outside of Corvallis dropping 11 of their past 13 away games.
Colorado is coming on as Josh Scott, hurt earlier, is playing well. Sparked by Scott, the Buffaloes have averaged 51.3 percent from the floor during the last three games.
This is clearly a case of two schools heading in opposite directions.

Kansas State has been up and down all season. Now the Wildcats realize they need to win this Big 12 Tournament in order to go to the Big Dance.
That's a tough order, but I see the Wildcats being up to the challenge for this first-round matchup. They are 5-3 versus the top seeds and own home victories against Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor.
This isn't a home game, but playing in Kansas City does mean more Kansas State fans than TCU fans. The Horned Frogs have dropped three straight. Their only consistent scoring threat is guard Kyle Anderson.
Kansas State has talent and potential. TCU isn't in good form and doesn't shoot well from the free throw line or from long distance.

I don't see USC, losers of 13 of its past 15, keeping this close. 

The Sun Devils have really come on. They've won five of their last seven and have shown tremendous improvement during the past four weeks. I haven't seen that from the Trojans. 

Arizona State has the versatility and backcourt strength to match up well against the Trojans. I see USC struggling to keep a hot Shaquille McKissic in check. 

The Sun Devils are 5-2 in their last seven games despite shooting just 26.7 percent from 3-point range. I expect the Sun Devils to shoot better than that against the Trojans, who rank 274th in defense giving up 70.4 points per game. 

Valparaiso is the class of the Horizon League. The Crusaders match up well against Green Bay and get to play at home in this Horizon League Tournament game.
The Crusaders set a single season school record for wins with 27 this season. Valparaiso has better offensive and defensive numbers than the Phoenix and are 14-1 at Athletics-Recreation Center, including winning all eight of its conference games there.
Green Bay, by contrast, is 0-5 during the past four season playing at Athletics-Recreation Center, including losing 63-59 there on Feb. 13.
The Phoenix are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Valpo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games versus foes with a winning road mark.  
Green Bay needs to score inside to be effective. The Phoenix are going to have problems getting points in the paint, though. The Crusaders have size and athleticism. One of those athletes is 6-foot-10 center Vashil Fernandez, who averages nearly three blocks a game.

Portland put aside concerns about finishing with four consecutive losses by upsetting Saint Mary's 69-52 this past Saturday in a quarterfinal game of the West Coast Conference Tournament.
BYU, on the other hand, struggled barely getting past Santa Clara, 78-76, in its quarterfinal game on Saturday. It's obvious the Cougars are looking ahead to a likely title match against Gonzaga.
Portland should play with a lot of effort and intensity. The Pilots have nothing to lose and are playing for only the second time in nine days. They catch a huge break in the WCC changing its tournament format. There were no games on Sunday. The tournament, which is being played in Las Vegas, resumes today so it can be televised nationally.
The Cougars are 16-35 (31 percent) ATS the past 51 times they've played on a neutral court. They aren't 100 percent healthy either. senior guard Anson Winder reinjured his upper leg and Corbin Kaufusi rolled an ankle against Santa Clara. 
BYU did beat Portland both times during the regular season, winning by nine in Provo and 82-69 on the road. Portland trailed by just two, though, with 3:21 left in that loss.

Pepperdine has the defense, determination and right situation to throw a scare into Gonzaga.
The Waves are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine times they've played opponents with a winning record. They've played the two top teams in the West Coast Conference - Gonzaga and BYU - very strong in four games going 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Waves swept BYU and lost to the Bulldogs 78-76 at home and 56-48 in Spokane.
This is just Pepperdine's second game in nine days. The Waves catch a break in they won't have fatigue issues because the WCC switched their format giving the teams Sunday off in order to set up a nationally televised doubleheader for Monday.
The tournament is being held in Las Vegas, a neutral site. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site matchups. The Bulldogs aren't looking to cover a huge margin - just win and move on. They need to conserve energy unlike Pepperdine, which can go all out with nothing to lose being such a heavy underdog.  
Pepperdine showed its determination coming from eight points down in the second half to beat San Diego, 50-47, in the quarterfinals on Saturday. The Waves are holding foes to 61 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting from the field.  
So Gonzaga doesn't figure to get many easy baskets especially if 6-foot-10 forward Kyle Wiltjer can't play or is limited. Wiltjer, the Bulldogs' leading scorer, suffered a hip injury late in the Bulldogs' quarterfinal win against San Francisco this past Saturday.

Purdue is decent offensively, but neither team plays at a fast pace and both have been playing strong defensively lately. I'm expecting an intesense defensive effort as each team is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Illinois is averaging just 60.1 points on the road while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. The Illini, though, is giving up only 58.5 points during its last nine games.

Purdue is holding foes to less than 60 points at home aided by a pair of 7-footers in its lineup. The under has cashed in 35 of Illinois' last 51 road games. Purdue has gone under in 12 of its last 17 games.  

The Irish are off a huge upset win against Louisville. Clemson has more to play for than Notre Dame, which has clinched third place in the ACC. Clemson is looking to go .500 and gain better seeding for the ACC Tournament.
Clemson is not a strong offensive team, but has some capable scorers. Notre Dame lacks shut down defenders. The Tigers are tough defensively holding foes to four points less per game than the Irish.
Clemson nearly beat Notre Dame in its earlier meeting on Feb. 10 losing 60-58. I just don't see Notre Dame covering a double-digit spread against a respectable conference foe without playing its "A" game.

The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols.
That game didn't finish until late Thursday night. Connecticut starters logged 165 floor minutes. Now the demoralized Huskies have this quick turnaround to Philadelphia knowing their only realistic hope of defending their NCAA title is to win the American Athletic Conference tournament. An early start time here certainly doesn't help fatigued Connecticut either.
The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. They have lost and failed to cover in five of their last seven conference road matchups falling 30 points below market expectations in these games. The Huskies actually would best be served by not wasting energy because a victory isn't going to improve their NCAA chances. They're going to need to win the AAC Tournament so they should scale back the minutes of their starters in preparation for achieving that long-shot goal. So I'm certainly not expecting to see the Huskies' "A" game here.
Temple needs this game more than Connecticut in terms of trying to land an NCAA Tournament berth. The Owls are 21-9. They have covered eight of their last 11 AAC games. They defeated Connecticut, 57-53, on New Year's Eve on the road in overtime. The setting is much better here for the Owls.
The atmosphere should be highly favorable for Temple. This is the last home game for Will Cummings and Jesse Morgan. The Owls also played two days ago, but their starters logged 35 fewer minutes than Connecticut's starters did on Thursday. Temple not only is the better team but is in better shape for this matchup mentally and physically.

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Yale has proven worthy on the road going 10-2 versus Ivy League opponents. The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. Going back ever farther, Yale is 18-6-2 ATS in its past 26 away matchups.
The road team has covered in the last five in this series. Yale shot just 31.3 percent from the field and shot fewer free throws than Harvard during the first meeting this season yet still lost by only two points.

Power ratings-wise, I have Oakland as a double-digit winner here. 

Oakland is 2-0 versus UIC this season winning 81-56 at home on Feb. 22 and also winning 91-77 on the road. 

The Golden Grizzlies are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games and have covered 10 of their past 13 Horizon League games.

Only six teams give up fewer points per game than Wichita State. Southern Illinois gives up 62.1 points per game to rank 57th. So we're definitely talking two excellent defenses here.

That's why we have a low total. But it's not priced low enough. This is the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament where defense dominates. Just look at Thursday's games when 103 and 102 points, respectively, were put up in the two games. 

The two teams met on Feb. 17 and the Shockers won 84-62. So Southern Illinois knows all too well it must slow tempo. Both teams have played three games at neutral sites. The Shockers allowed 56.3 points during those games wjile the Salukis gave up only 53.7 points. 

Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games.

The Cougars are capable at home owning victories against Stanford and Oregon. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times when hosting an opponent that has a winning road record. 

This is Davidson's second look at VCU and a a huge game for the Wildcats' program being Senior Night and on ESPN. The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. 

Look for the Wildcats to handle the Rams' presses and take them out of their half-court offense. VCU has lost its last two games falling at Richmond and to Dayton. The Rams shot just 33 percent from the floor combined in those two games.

They clearly miss Briante Weber. Davidson is No. 2 in the country in adjusted turnover ratio. The Wildcats are going to have three players with more than 100 assists on the season. They have excellent ballhandlers that can withstand VCU's presses especially after seeing it before. 

South Carolina is not a good shooting team. The Gamecocks are averaging just 58.2 points during their last five games. If you discount their last game giving up 81 points to Mississippi State, the Gamecocks are averaging 54.8 points during their last 10 games.

Arkansas ranks 9th in the country averaging 79.1 points a game. However, that average shrinks to 71.7 when on the road. If you take away the 101 points the Razorbacks put up on Auburn, the average would be down to 66 points in their other seven SEC road contests. 

South Carolina is strong defensively at home allowing 60.7 points a game. The average combined score in South Carolina conference home games this season has been 126 points. The under has cashed in 13 of South Carolina's last 19 home games. 

Oregon enters this huge rivalry on an 8-1 run, including four consecutive victories. The Ducks have a spot in the NCAA Tournament firmly in mind. Oregon State overachieved for the first half of the season, but its lack of talent, offense and bench has caught up.
The Beavers have lost five of their past six. They were swept by Stanford and California on the road last week outscored by a combined 45 points in the second half.
Oregon has won the last three in this Civil War series, including a 12-point home win this past Jan. 3.
Even respecting Oregon State's 15-1 home mark, I can't see the gassed Beavers keeping up with the Ducks. The Beavers have the lowest-ranked offense in the Pac-12 and fare poorly against the more up-tempo conference teams.
The Beavers have an excellent backcourt, but they have fewer than seven players on their roster with real Division I talent. Their lack of depth has brought down their defensive intensity, which is their key to victory. They just don't have it anymore. Look for Oregon to successfully spread the court on the Beavers while owning the stronger bench and better athletes.

Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila.
Of course I'm not expecting Colorado State to win this rematch by 56 points even with Avila back. But the Rams should prevail easily by double-digits.  
Colorado State is a bubble team that can't afford a slip up here. The Rams create big match up problems for the Wolf Pack with their four-guard offense and up-tempo style.
The Rams average nearly 73 points per game. Nevada doesn't have the offense to stay with them. The Wolf Pack lost by 32 points to Boise State, by 16 to Utah State at home and by 13 on the road to the Aggies. Those two teams are similar to Colorado State.

The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting.
The Beavers are 1-4 in their last five games. Never a strong offensive team, the Beavers averaged 49.7 points in those four losses. Oregon State can't play on the road either losing and failing to cover in eight of its 10 away matchups, including the last five.
Oregon State's latest road defeat came this past Thursday to Stanford, 75-48. The Cardinal scored 47 second-half points.
Cal is celebrating senior day and has beaten Oregon State four consecutive times at home. The Golden Bears are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, but hold matchup edges to go with their home-court advantage against Oregon State.
Aside from Gary Payton II, the Beavers can't match Cal's talent level. Tyrone Wallace is one of the top guards in the nation. He and Jordan Mathews are one of the better guard tandems in the West.
The Golden Bears also can exploit a size advantage. Their up-tempo backcourt can take advantage of Oregon State's depth issues that are made worse by getting worn down this late in the season.

I can easily see North Carolina State overlooking Boston College in this ACC sandwich spot. The Wolfpack are off a huge victory against arch-rival North Carolina and have a revenge game on tap against Clemson. That victory at North Carolina just may have put the Wolfpack into the NCAA Tournament and cause a letdown for this matchup against the lowly Eagles.
North Carolina State traditionally struggles at Boston College failing to cover in their last five visits.
Boston College guard Olivier Hanlan has been red-hot. Hanlan leads the ACC in scoring and is averaging 28 points in his last seven games.

The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points!
The Beavers' weak bench figures to get exposed by Stanford, a veteran squad that also can take advantage of the Beavers being without suspended 6-foot-7 forward Victor Robbins.
Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.  
 

Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road.
South Dakota has won five of its last six, including its last four. The Coyotes are playing consistent yet still are capable of more. This is what South Dakota coach Craig Smith was quoted as saying following the Coyotes' last game: We are consistently starting to play our best, but I am not sure if we've had our best game. But we've show more consistency in the last two weeks."
South Dakota has the better offense, better athletes and stronger bench. Denver is in real danger if it gets into foul trouble. The Coyotes have a winning record in the Summit League, while Denver is five games below .500 in league play. South Dakota has covered six of the past eight times versus opponents with a losing mark.
South Dakota defeated Denver, 74-69, on the road on Jan. 4. The Coyotes achieved this despite making just 41.8 percent of their shots from the floor while the Pioneers connected on 53.5 percent of their shots from the field. Denver also hit 17 of 20 free throws for 85 percent. The Pioneers are a good free throw shooting team, but not nearly that good. The Pioneers average fewer than 63 points per game.
Denver won its last game, beating Western Illinois on the road. Western Illinois is tied for last in the Summit at 3-11. The Pioneers are 4-13 ATS the past 17 times following a victory. That was just their second road win in 11 away matchups this season. They are 2-8 ATS in their lined road contests this season. The Pioneers have failed to cover the past three times they've been underdogs.


 

Utah State is playing well winning and covering its past four games. The Aggies rank in the top 20 in 3-point shooting and hold a huge coaching edge with Stew Morrill against David Rice.
This is a short turnaround for the Rebels, who upset New Mexico State on the road this past Saturday. That was just UNLV's second true road victory of the season. Utah State is 18-7-1 during its past 26 home games when taking on a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
The Aggies have a revenge motive, too, after losing in overtime to UNLV earlier this season.

Xavier has picked up its game. But St. John's is 4-1 in its last five games, beat the Musketeers, 78-70, on the road 10 days ago and is in a good situational spot.
The Red Storm pose matchup problems for Xavier. The Musketeers had trouble keeping up with the athletic Red Storm in transition during their first meeting. St. John's is even faster and better at home where it is averaging 85 points in the past three games while shooting better than 50 percent from 3-point range during this span.
Xavier is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 away games. This is a tough spot, too, for the Musketeers. Xavier is off big wins against Cincinnati - a huge in-state rivalry matchup - and a 73-56 victory against 19th-ranked Butler this past Saturday.
Now the Musketeers have to travel to New York for their third big game in six days. Xavier hasn't won three in a row since early December.

UAB has qualified for the Conference USA Tournament. The Blazers are coming off a huge emotional home victory against Western Kentucky this past Thursday, 71-66. They are a decent, but far from outstanding team.
Marshall has a bad record but has been coming on. The Thundering Herd had won and covered three in a row until suffering an embarrassing 90-51 road loss to Middle Tennessee State this past Thursday where they were outscored 50-7 at one juncture of the second half.  
This is what Marshall coach Dan D'Antoni was quoted as saying following that humiliation: "We've got to be a little more disciplined and a little more tougher minded. I thought when things went bad you could see them kind of drooped. You could see the droop. That was something we did early in the year and don't want that to come back."
I see Marshall, which is still trying to qualify for the Conference USA Tournament, giving a full, all-out effort here and getting good line value due to its blowout loss in its last game. The Thundering Herd are 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. They also are 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss of more than 20 points.
The Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and has strong revenge motivation. 

The Chippewas were hammered 83-65 by Ball State last month. The Cardinals are 2-11 in conference. That's one of their MAC victories and an embarrassement to Central Michigan.

The Chippewas are the top offensive team in the conference and are hot having won four in a row. They rank 12th in the country in scoring at better than 79 points per game. Ball State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cardinals lack the defensive perimeter game to slow down the Chippewas' strong offense. Plus the Cardinals are worn down with multiple injuries.

The Cardinals have failed to cover in 8 of their last 10 games. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. 

Murray State clearly is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay sits at the bottom of the West standings. 

The Racers already have captured the league championship and No. 1 seed for the conference tournament. So they have no strong incentive. Austin Peay won't be going to the tournament barring a miracle. This is the Governors' Super Bowl. They only lost by 10 in the first meeting covering the 11 1/2-point spread two weeks ago. Now the line is close to 10 points higher. 

Murray State coach Steve Prohm has a history of pulling his starters once his team reaches a comfortable lead. That leaves the backdoor wide open for Austin Peay. The Governors are a very bad shooting team, but they have outrebounded their opponents and created more turnovers during league play. 

Murray State wins, but doesn't necessarily cover. The Racers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Ohio Valley games. Since Jan. 17, Austin Peay has been an underdog of 7 or more points four times. The Governors have covered each of those games. 

The Governors should be rested and prepared. They've had a week off after their scheduled game for this past Tuesday at Eastern Kentucky was postponed. 

Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint.
The Utes have won their Pac-12 games by an average of 22.8 points per game. They rank No. 1 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Oregon State doesn't have the offensive to stay with the Utes even at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have failed to cover in six of their last seven Pac-12 contests.
The only thing keeping this spread under double-digits is Oregon State's unbeaten home mark. Look for that to get erased in a big way in this matchup, though.

UCLA is not the same team on the road. The Bruins are just 3-9 away from Pauley Pavilion. Lack of depth and experience has hurt the Bruins on the road. Arizona is the second-most experienced team in the Pac-12 and has the guard depth to take advantage of UCLA's road woes. 

Arizona State has stepped up its offense averaging just under 75 points in its last eight games. The Sun Devils are the second-highest scoring team in the league and have the best field goal percentage. UCLA ranks ninth in the Pac-12 in points allowed per game. 

UCLA has a look-ahead game this Saturday at seventh-ranked Arizona. The Sun Devils defeated Arizona by three points at home earlier this month.  

Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten.
The Wildcats have had only one bad conference road loss in six trips. They covered at Wisconsin. They beat Rutgers, which defeated Wisconsin at home. The Wildcats also took Michigan State to overtime in East Lansing and lost hard-fought road games to Michigan and Maryland by a combined three points. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road matchups.
Minnesota's defensive weakness is 3-point defense. The Gophers give up 35.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc, ranking them 241st. Northwestern ranks fifth in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at 35.8 percent.
The Gophers were blown out in their last game by Indiana, which leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting. Prior to that game, the Gophers had won three in a row beating Iowa, Purdue and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes ranked ninth in the league in 3-point shooting while the Boilermakers were 12th and Cornhuskers 14th.
Before meeting Indiana, the Gophers had played just one of the Big Ten's top five 3-point shooting teams and that was Maryland. The Terrapins made eight 3-pointers in beating the Gophers, 70-58, at home. Northwestern lost to the Terrapins by one point on the road.  
Minnesota has failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 Big Ten games. Its last two meetings against Northwestern have been decided by a combined seven points.

Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions.
Michigan State is off its best week of the season blowing out Northwestern on the road and defeating then 23rd-ranked Ohio State this past Saturday. This is the time where Tom Izzo has his Spartans starting to peak. I don't see them taking a step back against a banged-up and demoralized Michigan squad that has lost three overtime contests during its past six games.
Michigan has lost five of its past six, including its last four. The Wolverines have a short bench and are minus their best players as Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert remain out. Their perimeter game really is hurting without those two.
The Wolverines are averaging 57 points during regulation in their last three games. Michigan State ranks 54th defensively giving up 61.2 points. I don't see the Wolverines putting up enough points to get the cover.  
Note, too, that Michigan has failed to cover in nine of its last 13 home games.

Notre Dame is rested and prepared to blow out Wake Forest. The Irish last played a week ago. They had not been playing well during their last four games - losing at Pittsburgh, only beating ACC-worst Boston College by eight in their last home game on Feb. 4, getting blown out by 30 to Duke and nipping Clemson by two.
Look for the Irish to be rejuvenated following a welcome seven days of rest and practice.
Wake Forest nearly upset third-ranked Virginia this past Saturday, losing 61-60. The Demon Deacons meet the Cavaliers in their next game. I don't see the Demon Deacons, 4-9 in the ACC, stepping up in consecutive games.
Notre Dame has too much offense for Wake Forest ranking 14th in the country in scoring at 79.2 points per game. The Irish lost twice to Wake Forest last season so double revenge is added motivation.
Notre Dame isn't in action again until Saturday when it plays Boston College so a fully focused effort should be ensured.

The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road.
But there is far more behind the records that indicate the underdog Panthers are the right play in this matchup.
Pitt is playing its finest ball. In their last five games, the Panthers have gone 4-1 with their only loss during this span coming to Louisville in which they led by six with 12 minutes left. Pittsburgh has knocked off Syracuse, Notre Dame and North Carolina by 13 points in its last game during this span.
The Panthers aren't going to lack for motivation even coming off the huge win against the Tar Heels just two days ago. That's because they likely need a win - or at least to play a close game - to impress the NCAA Tournament committee that they are capable of playing well on the road since they lack quality road victories.  
This is what Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon was quoted as saying about his team, "You're seeing guys improve. They're playing with a lot of confidence. We're getting better at the right time."
Virginia is not the same since losing forward Justin Anderson, its best player and defender. He's missed the past two games with a broken finger and remains out. Since Anderson was lost, the Cavaliers beat North Carolina State, 51-47, as a 7-point road favorite and nipped Wake Forest, 61-60, at home as an 18-point favorite this past Saturday. The Demon Deacons had the ball at the end with a chance to win.
Virginia was 3-of-23 from 3-point range in those two games. Anderson is by far the Cavaliers' best 3-point shooter. North Carolina State and Wake Forest are a combined 10-16 in ACC games.
The Panthers played the Cavaliers tough during their two meetings last season losing 48-45 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer and falling 51-48 in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Panthers shot a combined 34.4 percent from the floor in those two games and still lost each time by just three points.
No, the Panthers aren't going to shoot 64.9 percent from the floor and score 89 points like they did versus North Carolina two days ago. But they are more than capable of keeping this far closer than this spread indicates especially with Anderson out for the Cavaliers.

Cal has turned things around winning five in a row. The Golden Bears are 5-2 in true road games. They've won their past three away games while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road contests.  
Utah, of course, is very strong. But this is just too many points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering five of the past seven times.
The Utes are very good, especially at home. There's no denying that. But they've been fortunate to catch their road opponents either in a rut or with injuries. That's not the case with Cal, which comes in with a lot of momentum.
The Golden Bears are one of the stronger defensive teams in the Pac-12 and have an excellent guard in Tyrone Wallace and a top 3-point shooter in Jordan Mathews, who has made at least three 3-pointers in four of his last five games.
The Bears are a scrappy and physical team. KenPom ranks the Bears as the eighth-best defensive rebounding team in the country.  

This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season.
Wisconsin is outstanding, obviously capable of winning the NCAA championship. So this isn't a fade on the Badgers. It's just a strong belief that Illinois can keep this close. The Illini have reached a high point in their season with four straight victories pushing their record to 17-8.
Illinois is capable owning victories against Baylor and Maryland, two teams that rank in the top 15 in the RPI standings. The Illini also have senior guard and leading scorer Rayvonte Rice back. He had missed nine games with a broken hand and team suspension, but got some rust off against Michigan in the Illini's last game. Rice averaged 21.5 points in two meetings against the Badgers last season.

Nevada will be going all out at home off their worst defensive effort of the season and having dropped their last four at Lawlor Events Center. In three of their last four home losses, the Wolf Pack lost by a combined 10 points to UNLV, San Diego State and Fresno State.
Expect another close game here. New Mexico is a .500 Mountain West team that lacks enough offense to cover this large of a road number against what should be a fired-up Wolf Pack squad desperate to give their home fans a victory.
The Lobos aren't playing well dropping five of their last six. Their only victory during this span was against last-place San Jose State, who is 2-21 on the season and in total disarray.

Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though.
Oregon State is hungry to establish its credibility away from Corvallis. It desperately needs a road win and the timing is right here. USC is really struggling. The Trojans last won on Jan. 7. They've lost nine in a row and are likely to be without point guard Jordan McLaughlin, who injured his surgically repaired left shoulder during USC's 80-75 home loss to Oregon this past Wednesday.
McLaughlin, the Trojans' team leader in assists, steals and minutes played, is difficult to replace. USC is thin and weak shooting in the backcourt. Making matters worse for the Trojans is Oregon State has one of the best defensive backcourts in the country. Gary Payton II has 70 steals and is one of the top all-around guards in the country. He has at least one steal in 24 straight games.
USC has covered just 31 percent of its last 62 home games. Oregon State has beaten USC eight of the past 11 times and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times against foes with a losing mark.

Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0.
I want Valpo going for me at home and in a revenge spot. The Crusaders lost 51-50 on the road to Green Bay on Jan. 23. Valpo fell by one point on the road to the Phoenix despite shooting less than 35 percent from the floor and missing 16 consecutive shots in the second half.
Look for the Crusaders to be far more in sync at home where they are 11-1 on the season. Since that loss to Green Bay, the Crusaders have won four in a row. The Phoenix, on the other hand, have failed to cover in four of their last five Horizon League games.
Green Bay's senior point guard Keifer Sykes might be the best player in the Horizon League. But Valpo has the more balanced lineup and a star, too, in Alec Peters. He's averaging 17.3 points and is on pace to become the first sophomore in program history to score 1,000 points in a season for the Crusaders. Valpo hasn't lost all season when Peters reaches double figures.

Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games.
Randle leads the Pac-12 in scoring and made 7 of 10 shots from 3-point range when the Cardinal beat Utah, 61-60, in last season's regular-season finale.
Stanford is doing a great job getting to the free throw line shooting 26 more free throws than its opponents during the past six games.
The Cardinal have lost their four Pac-12 games by an average of five points. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

Oregon is coming on while USC has dropped eight in a row done in by inexperience and lack of offense.
The Trojans rank last in the Pac-12 in offensive efficiency. They have covered only 32 percent of their last 61 home games. Nikola Jovanovic is USC's leading scorer at 12.7 points per game. He's missed 14 of 21 shots from the floor during the last three games.
Oregon ranks 20th in the nation in scoring at 77.2 points per game. Then Ducks have the Pac-12's leading scorer in Joseph Young and gets back from suspension Jordan Bell, who leads the Ducks in rebounding and is the seventh-leading shot-blocker in the country.
The Ducks have been red-hot from the free throw line, too, hitting 84 percent in their last six games. They also have defeated USC nine consecutive times.

Xavier is ranked 34th in the NCAA Daily RPI while Marquette rates 114th. The 15-9 Musketeers clearly are the superior team probably around a ninth seed if the NCAA Tournament were being seeded right now. Marquette has a losing record.
The key here is how Xavier will play on the road. In two of the Musketeers' last three road games they had good performances upsetting Georgetown and losing in overtime to Providence. Marquette has failed to cover in its last four home contests.
The Golden Eagles are a big effort team, but they could start to wear down with just seven scholarship players as life in the physical Big East takes a toll this late in the season. Marquette has a short bench and could be without leading scorer, senior guard Matt Carlino. He suffered a concussion six days ago against Villanova and missed the Golden Eagles' last game.
Carlino scored 27 points in the team's first meeting won by Xavier, 62-58. The Musketeers struggled with Marquette's pressure defense in that game scoring only 22 points in the first half. Look for Xavier to be better prepared now that they've faced the Golden Eagles and with something to prove being on the road. The Musketeers are riding a wave of confidence after a 78-69 win over  Providence this past Saturday.
Marquette also is coming off a win, a road victory against Seton Hall on Saturday. Prior to that, however, the Golden Eagles had dropped six in a row.   

 

Oregon State is 13-0 at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers are like night and day when they are home compared to the road.
The Beavers have revenge and Washington has lost its best big people. The Huskies aren't nearly as good or dangerous minus Robert Upshaw, who was leading the nation in blocked shots, and Jernard Jarreau.
Washington still has an excellent point guard, Nigel Williams-Gross. But he faces tremendous backcourt pressure from the Beavers. Williams-Gross also is facing a fatigue issue having played the entire game during four of the past five games.
The Huskies have a losing road mark, both SU and ATS. Oregon State is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times hosting an opponent with a losing road mark.
Washington shot a season-best 56.6 percent from the floor in its last game this past Wednesday at Oregon. Yet the Huskies still lost by four points. They aren't going to shoot that well in this matchup. Oregon State limits foes to an average of 56.6 points a game and ranks sixth in the country in defensive field goal percentage.  

VCU managed to cover against George Mason this past Wednesday, 72-60, in a game that was closer than the final score. The Rams won that game despite missing point guard Briante Weber, lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in a 64-55 loss to Richmond on Jan. 31.
But I don't see the Rams covering here especially if leading scorer Treveon Graham is out, too. VCU leads the Atlantic 10, but is vulnerable especially in this road matchup. Graham suffered a high ankle sprain in the victory against George Mason. Even if he manages to play he'll be limited. Weber's loss is huge. He was leading the country in steals per game and had a tremendous assist-to-turnover ratio.
St. Bonaventure is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games versus foes with a winning road mark. The Bonnies are coming off a dramatic 62-61 road win against Davidson on a basket by Marcus Posley at the buzzer this past Wednesday. Posley leads the Bonnies in scoring at 17.4 points a game and is hitting 36.6 percent from 3-point range. The Bonnies have a good inside-outside game with 7-foot center Youssou Ndoye and Posley. The Bonnies have covered five of their last six games.  

Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow.
The Beavers are last in the Pac-12 in scoring at 54.6 points per game and last in offensive efficiency. Their point total goes down to 45.6 a game if you factor just Pac-12 matchups.
They have just a seven man rotation, which is starting to wear thin. None of their top seven players are shooting 50 percent.
Washington State is playing better defense, does a good job of getting to the free throw line, has two excellent key players and is off a confidence-building 89-88 win against Stanford this past Saturday that halted a four-game losing streak.
The Cougars' 6-foot-10 forward Josh Hawkinson is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double scoring 15.1 points per game and a Pac-12-best 10.8 rebounds. Senior guard Davonte Lacy averages 17.7 points per game and has scored 49 points in his last two games.
 

Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. 

Georgia Tech's record is misleading. The Yellow Jackets have lost seven ACC games by seven points or less, including falling to North Carolina State by one point in overtime on a 3-pointer at the buzzer in their last game. In their previous game, they upset Miami on the road winning by 20 points.

Georgia Tech is a proven road commodity covering 12 of its last 16 away matchups. Duke is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 ACC games. 

Virginia Tech has gone under in 20 of its last 28 ACC games. Look for that trend to continue here. 

Syracuse is really going to be stressing defense after giving up 93 points to North Carolina in its last game. The Orangemen give up just 56.4 points per game at home. They have always had a top zone defense under Jim Boeheim and outside shooting is not a strength of Virginia Tech. The Hokies averaged 61.4 points on the road and have averaged under 60 points in regulation during their last six overall games. 

Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances.
The Phoenix are the superior team and much healthier. They rolled past Wright State, 79-55, in their first meeting on Jan. 5.
The Raiders are a .500 team with injuries. Among the players they will be missing are forward JT Yoho, their leading scorer and rebounder. Also out is senior guard Kendall Griffin, who suffered a concussion in the Raiders' last game, an overtime loss at Oakland this past Wednesday.
Wright State is 1-4 in its last five games, including losses to Cleveland State and Valparaiso in its last two home contests.  

Utah has too much talent, height, balance and depth for UCLA. The Utes clobbered the Bruins by 32 points earlier this month and I can't see the banged-up Bruins regrouping enough, even at home, to keep from losing by less than double-digits.
UCLA is 3-7 in its last 10 games and coming back from an 0-2 trip to Oregon where it lost by a combined 29 points to the Beavers and Ducks.
Ill health is hurting the Bruins. Senior guard Norman Powell has been playing with various aliments and missed practice on Tuesday. Junior center Tony Parker has missed the last two games due to back spasms and may not play. The Bruins have one of the thinnest benches in the Pac-12.
Utah has a physical, intimidating front line aided by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl, who ranks eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Utes have lost only three times with two of those defeats occurring to top-10 teams.
Utah doesn't beat itself and has impressive trends to back it up such as being 39-16-1 ATS in its last 56 Pac-12 games and 45-19-3 ATS in its last 67 games versus an opponent with a winning record.

Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows.
The Buffaloes have yet to win on the road this season in six games. Colorado is without leading rebounder Josh Scott, who did not make the trip to Los Angeles because of back spasms, and third-leading scorer Xavier Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury. Those are two of Colorado's three best players. Johnson has missed the last three games and missed practice on Tuesday.
The Trojans have dropped four in a row, but have only played one bad half during their last five games. Three of their defeats were by a total of 14 points. The Trojans lost to Stanford by two. They were tied with Oregon with under six minutes left and lost by four to Oregon State this past Saturday. Those three teams are a combined 42-16, including 14-7 in the Pac-12.  
So I see a lot of growth and improvement from USC that hasn't shown up yet on the won-lost record. Sources tell me the Trojans have had great practices this week. This is the game where the Trojans get over the hump being home against a crippled Colorado team that has dropped four of its last five.

Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season.
But the Beavers are in a tough spot here - and the oddsmaker knows it with this spread. I want Arizona State going for me here, though, so I will lay this many points.
Oregon State is 12-0 at home, but has a losing straight-up and spread record on the road.
Arizona State is just 10-10, but 9-2 at home. The Sun Devils have played five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road. Going back to last season, the Sun Devils have won 17 of their past 19 home contests.
This is a key matchup for the Sun Devils and I expect them to be going all out. They were out-hustled by the Beavers when they played in Corvallis 20 days ago losing 55-47. Arizona State played with great defensive intensity in a 79-44 road victory against California two games ago, However, that intensity deserted the Sun Devils in their last game, an embarrassing 89-70 road defeat to Stanford this past Saturday.
Now the Sun Devils are home for three consecutive games. Arizona State's offense has gotten better since meeting Oregon State. The Sun Devils are averaging 75.6 points in their last three games. Arizona State has reduced its turnovers during this span, a key against Oregon State's tenacious defensive backcourt headed by Gary Payton II. The Sun Devils lost Kodi Justice for the season in their loss to Stanford, but have backcourt depth and Oregon State's pressure is lessened when on the road.
Arizona State ranks 52nd in the country in 3-point shooting. The Sun Devils don't figure to miss 17 of 21 shots from 3-point range like they did in the first meeting against Oregon State.  

Kansas has a matchup problem against Texas and it's made worse when the Jayhawks play the Longhorns on the road. Kansas has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away matchups and lost 81-69 at Texas last season.
Only Kentucky has a higher shot blocking percentage than Texas. Kansas lost 72-40 to the Wildcats earlier this season. The Longhorns also rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and are third in field-goal percentage defense.
The Longhorns start 6-foot-8 Jonathan Holmes, 6-9 Connor Lammert and 6-9 Cameron Ridley. They also have 6-11 freshman Myles Turner playing more than half the team’s minutes off the bench. He could be the most talented player on Texas' roster.
All of this creates a huge problem for the smaller Jayhawks. Only 12 teams out of 351 have had more shots blocked than Kansas, according to research compiled by KenPom.com. The Jayhawks also rank 263rd in two-pointers, the lowest figure during Bill Self's 12 years at Kansas.
So getting shots rejected and scoring easy buckets is a huge problem for Kansas and it's made far worse in this matchup. Kansas doesn't figure to get easy looks at the basket as the Longhorns rank 28th in percentage of close shots allowed. The Jayhawks aren't going to get many calls either being on the road so they don't figure to be helped at the free throw line.

Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups.
UCLA gets much of its scoring from its guards. However, Oregon State has a pair of tremendous defensive guards in Gary Payton II, who ranks second in the nation in steals, and Malcolm Duvivier. The Beavers rank first in the Pac-12 in 3-point defense. Only Arizona has a better defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 than Oregon State, which upset the Wildcats at home on Jan. 11.
The Bruins have just an eight-man rotation and that may be reduced as center Tony Parker is a game-time decision because of back spasms.
UCLA figures to be rusty having been idle since Jan. 14. The Bruins have failed to cover 10 of the last 13 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS the last seven times they've hosted a foe with a losing road mark.

Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage.

The pace is going to be slow here with points a struggle to come by. That also is a plus for an underdog of this many points. 

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 22 of the past 29 times. The Sycamores also have covered in five of their last seven visits to Northern Iowa. 

Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier.
The Spartans also have revenge from a 68-66 home overtime loss to the Terrapins on Dec. 30 when they shot only 32.3 percent from the field. I'd take Tom Izzo over any coach when it comes to same-season conference revenge. Izzo's record stands 30-11 SU and 28-12-1 ATS the past 41 times in these instances. The Spartans have beaten the spread by an average of more than four points per game during this span.
The Spartans were out-rebounded in the first meeting, which negated them committing eight fewer turnovers than Maryland. The Spartans are the superior rebounding team so that shouldn't happen again.
Michigan State also has proven itself on the road against top competition covering 13 of the past 19 times when taking on a foe with a winning home record. Maryland is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home contests.

This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona.
That was Oregon State's biggest win in 15 years and puts the Beavers in a huge letdown spot. The Beavers' talent level still is way down. Washington, though, certainly won't be looking down at the Beavers desperately needing a victory and knowing Oregon State is capable of knocking off a top Pac-12 team.  
Oregon State has lost to the Huskies during each of its last 11 visits to Seattle. That string should definitely continue here. Washington holds a strong backcourt edge with point guard Nigel Williams. The Huskies have three guards who average in double figures and also hold a strong frontcourt edge behind center Robert Upshaw.
The Beavers lack a true point guard and haven't really faced an opponent with as much depth in the frontcourt as Washington has with its strong shot-blocking and rebounding abilities.

Illinois State wasn't fully focused on New Year's Eve when it hosted Indiana State. The result was a two-point loss as an 11-point favorite.
I see Illinois State highly motivated now two weeks later in a revenge spot and shooting much better than 35.8 percent, which it shot in the first meeting from the floor.
The Redbirds have covered five of their last six road games while the Sycamores are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home contests.

Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage.
The Flyers have covered 11 of the past 15 times when playing a below .500 opponent. Dayton has beaten Fordham the past three times winning by an average of 23 points a game. Dayton is strong again this season while Fordham is down. The Rams are inexperienced, have a weak backcourt and are in a rebuilding situation.  

Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here.

Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games.

UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. 

This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go.

Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor.

George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone.

These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team.

Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. 

The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays.

Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests.

Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players.

Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago.

Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is  now eligible.

The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. 

Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season.

Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday.

Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs.

Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. 

The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969.

But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. 

Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70.

The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss.

Not only is No. 21-ranked Arkansas worthy of covering this spread, but it can win straight-up. The unbeaten Razorbacks can score, have an outstanding backcourt, shot-blocker and are physically and mentally tough.

The 6-0 Razorbacks have played one game away from home - and they beat SMU, 78-72, in that contest. That was the fewest points the Razorbacks scored in a game - and they still won covering as 4-point 'dogs. They are averaging 90 points per game, only three teams average more.

I really like Arkansas' backcourt of Michael Qualls and Rashad Madden. They've helped the Razorbacks lead the nation in assists per game at 20.7.

Iowa State is 4-1. The Cyclones haven't been sharp, especially early, in three of their games. A slow start could doom them against the up-tempo Razorbacks.

Arkansas has a good history in these spots covering nine of the last 12 times when facing an opponent with a winning record.

UNLV is one of the least experienced teams in the country breaking in all new starters. The Rebels are not well coached and playing in their first real road game of the season. The Rebels' challenge is even more daunting because they are at Arizona State.

The Sun Devils have won 20 of their last 21 games homes, including the past 12 at Wells Fargo Arena. Among the teams the Sun Devils have defeated during this span are Utah, Colorado, Oregon, then second-ranked Arizona, Colgate this season and Stanford, a team that beat UNLV by 21 points at a neutral site less than two weeks ago.

UNLV has talent. But it's too early in the season for that talent to mesh. The Rebels have broken the 60-point barrier just once in their first five games and are shooting less than 58 percent from the foul line. 

The Sun Devils defeated the Rebels by six points last season - at UNLV. The Rebels can rebound and block shots, but lack the Sun Devils' experience and balanced attack. The Rebels have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games.