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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-30-21	McNeese State +5 v. Lamar		56-64	Loss	-110	11 h 35 m	Show
The points are a bonus as I believe McNeese is the superior team. Certainly the Cowboys have the better overall record being 7-9 while Lamar is 3-11. There is no doubt who has the better offense. It's not Lamar. The Cardinals average 63.6 points per game, which ranks 320th. McNeese State is the eighth-highest scoring team in the nation at 84.9 points a game. Lamar surrenders 76.9 points per contest. The Cardinals are 0-10 when they permit 66 or more points. McNeese State should have no trouble exceeding that number.
01-30-21	Toledo v. Bowling Green +4		84-66	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
Bowling Green is back home in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Toledo is playing extremely well with wins in 11 of its last 12 games. But the Falcons play the Rockets tough. They've beaten them the past two times. The Falcons have the best player on the court in Justin Turner. He averages 20.5 points a game. Few teams average more points per game than Toledo. The Rockets put up 80.4 points. Bowling Green matches that also scoring 80.4 points and the Falcons give up an average of nearly five fewer points per game than the Rockets.
01-30-21	SIU-Edwardsville v. Tenn-Martin +4		76-60	Loss	-109	10 h 6 m	Show
When it comes to smaller conferences such as the Ohio Valley, the oddsmaker makes his line strictly by season power rankings. That sets up opportunities like this because Tennessee-Martin is showing life at home after losing nine straight games. The Skyhawks are 2-0 so far in their six-game homestand. Tennessee-Martin defeated Southeast Missouri State, 69-66, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs and then followed that up with an impressive, 51-41, victory against Eastern Illinois as 8-point home 'dogs this past Thursday. The Skyhawks had never held a foe to that low of a total before. SIU Edwardsville had a 34-day layoff due to COVID-19 issues. This is just the Cougars' fifth game since Dec. 18. They may not be fully mentally ready after suffering a heartbreaking, 64-62, loss to Southeast Missouri State this past Thursday. The Cougars blew a 13-point second half lead. The only time they trailed in the game was the final score. The Skyhawks have won eight of their last 10 against the Cougars.
01-30-21	Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois +2.5		74-62	Loss	-110	9 h 10 m	Show
Southern Illinois is in a tailspin having lost five in a row. But the Salukis should defeat fellow Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Northern Iowa at home. Note that the Salukis' last four losses have come to Drake and Indiana State. Drake is 15-0 and Indiana State is the fourth-best team in the MVC. Northern Iowa is far from that class. The Panthers are 4-10 on the season. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games and are 0-6 ATS during their past six away matchups. Southern Illinois has covered 13 of their last 18 home games. The Salukis outscore Northern Iowa on the season and also give up fewer points per game.
01-29-21	CS-Fullerton +10.5 v. CS Bakersfield		90-84	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
I see Fullerton having enough offense to hang with Bakersfield in this Big West Conference matchup. The Titans are averaging 75.4 points per game, which is five points more than Bakersfield averages. The Roadrunners have been a good fade in this type of situation. They are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games and 2-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 foes.
01-29-21	Iowa +2 v. Illinois		75-80	Loss	-109	16 h 33 m	Show
Iowa is the better team in my view and Illinois' home-court advantage doesn't make up for that. The Hawkeyes may have the best big man in the country, too, in 6-foot-11 Luka Garza. He's leading the Big Ten in scoring at 26.9 points while connecting on 61 percent of his shots from the floor. Illinois has an excellent big man, Kofi Cockburn. But Garza trumps him. The Hawkeyes enter this matchup well-rested and highly motivated having not played for eight days since an 81-69 home loss to Indiana. Iowa was a 10-point favorite in that game. Even with that defeat, the Hawkeyes still have covered 15 of their last 21 games.
01-29-21	Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 136.5		63-64	Win	100	14 h 40 m	Show
Florida Gulf Coast is averaging only 64.5 points in its last four games. Stetson is giving up just 66.2 points during its last five games. The Hatters are not an up-tempo team, which is fine with Florida Gulf Coast. Neither offense is dynamic. Stetson ranks 288th in scoring averaging 66.5 points a game, while the Eagles rank 183rd in scoring at 71.9 points. They've held their last four foes to an aveage of 64.5 points. Given the current defensive form of both teams - and lack of tempo and big scoring - look for this one to go Under the total.
01-29-21	Monmouth -3.5 v. Niagara		77-67	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Monmouth is on a 7-2-1 ATS run. The Hawks have won and covered their last four games. Power rating-wise, this game opened too short in my view. The Hawks have given up 64 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Niagara hasn't been playing as well losing three of its last four games while failing to cover in three of its past four games. Monmouth has a far stronger offense, outscoring Niagara by an average of 16 points per game. So I'm going to go ahead and lay what I believe is a value number.
01-28-21	California v. Arizona State -7.5		68-72	Loss	-110	18 h 26 m	Show
I'm seeing a buy sign on Arizona State in this spot as the Sun Devils hopefully are past their COVID-19 issues that have pushed their season off track. Back in early December, the Sun Devils traveled to Berkley, Calif., and defeated California, 70-62, as 6 1/2-point favorites. ASU's star guard Remy Martin scored 22 points in that game. Since that matchup, however, the Sun Devils had four postponements and one cancellation due to the pandemic. They are just rounding into shape. Arizona State threw a scare into 12-3 Arizona last Thursday losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer. This is a massive circle-the-wagons game for the Sun Devils, who have dropped six in a row. California has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 road contests. I see this as the spot where Arizona State gets right.
01-28-21	Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5		85-66	Loss	-110	16 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to step in against Morehead State, which has won seven in a row. I don't trust the Eagles' offense on the road. Morehead State ranks 295th in scoring at 65.6 points a game. Jacksonville State averages nine points more per game than Morehead State. The Gamecocks also have been playing well defeating Murray State and Austin Peay in their last two games. Both of those were road contests and the Gamecocks were underdogs. The Gamecocks are averaging 84 points during their last three games. The teams met on Jan. 9 and Morehead State escaped with a 56-55 win as a 3-point home 'dog. Jacksonville State shot just 33 percent from the floor in that game while missing 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. Morehead State shot 40 percent from the floor in its narrow win. So the Gamecocks have revenge as added incentive.
01-27-21	Utah State -6 v. UNLV	Top	83-74	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge. UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State. The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers. Expect Utah State to play much better.
01-25-21	Arizona State v. Arizona -4.5		67-80	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
Arizona State has been a major disappointment in the Pac-12 with a 1-4 league mark and 4-7 overall record. Much of this can be blamed on COVID-19. The pandemic has played havoc with the Sun Devils' schedule causing four postponements and one cancellation. The Sun Devils, though, were up for this past Thursday's game against in-state and conference rival Arizona. They led the Wildcats by six points with 3:40 left before losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer as 2 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the scene shifts to Tucson where Arizona gets to host Arizona State. The Wildcats took the Sun Devils' best punch. Arizona State wasn't happy about the officiating, but it got to shoot 12 more free throws than Arizona. The Sun Devils also made 11 of 21 3-point shots for 52 percent. Arizona also shot well from beyond the arc. But the Wildcats are much more proficient from 3-point range than the Sun Devils, who shoot 33.2 percent from there. The Wildcats are the superior team. They are 11-3 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12. I don't see Arizona letting an 11-point lead slip like it did in the last meeting. I also don't envision the Sun Devils playing as well as they did on Thursday. ASU is 1-8 ATS following a loss and this last one was very tough to take. The Sun Devils also are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road contests.
01-24-21	Valparaiso v. Illinois State -115		70-66	Loss	-115	7 h 54 m	Show
I'm looking for Illinois State to get revenge on Valparaiso after the Crusader upset Illinois State, 69-60, as 2-point road 'dogs on Saturday. The Redbirds suffered a letdown having upset Bradley at home during their previous game. Illinois holds a backcourt edge and should shoot more than 10 free throws, which was their Saturday total. The Redbirds also should make more than seven 3-pointers. They rank 29th in the country in 3-point shooting accuracy. The Crusaders had failed to cover in six straight games until upsetting Illinois State.
01-23-21	St. Mary's +3 v. San Francisco		67-63	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8. The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three. The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga. St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win.
01-23-21	McNeese State +3 v. Houston Baptist		74-71	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup. McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points. Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games.
01-23-21	West Virginia v. Kansas State +11.5		69-47	Loss	-105	10 h 57 m	Show
Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time. The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time. West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups.
01-23-21	Kansas -1 v. Oklahoma		68-75	Loss	-114	8 h 14 m	Show
Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons. Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma. The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12. The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark.
01-22-21	San Diego State v. Air Force UNDER 127.5	Top	98-61	Loss	-110	20 h 8 m	Show
Not only are these two defensive-minded teams, but they also rank first and second in terms of slowest pace in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is an upper tier defensive team ranking 12th in the country, giving up 60.7 points per game. Air Force ranks among the bottom teams scoring-wise at 58.9 points. The Falcons have failed to reach 60 points in four of their last six games. They rate 342nd in the nation in scoring. Air Force catches a break in that San Diego State won't have their leading scorer, senior Matt Mitchell. He has a knee injury and won't play for at least another week. MItchell averages 15.3 points, the only Aztec player to average more than 13 points. MItchell had played in 114 out of a possible 114 games for the Aztecs before his injury. His likely replacement is Keshad Johnson, who recently returned from a shoulder injury and averages only 3.2 points. There are several pertinent Under trends that dovetail together - The Under is 7-1 the last eight times San Diego State has played a sub .500 opponent and the Under is 22-7 the past 29 times Air Force has met a team with a winning record.
01-22-21	Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas-Arlington OVER 144.5		66-59	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
Arkansas-Little Rock has been a strong Over team. The Over has cashed in 74 percent of its last 34 games. The Trojans have gone Over in eight of their last nine road contests. Arkansas-Little Rock just played two games against Texas State, which has the 40th-best defense in the nation. Before meeting Texas State, the Trojans had scored at least 75 points in eight of their last nine games. Now Little Rock is stepping way down in defensive class. UT-Arlington is a much weaker defensive team than Texas State. The Mavericks are all about a fast tempo and high scoring. They average 79.2 points and play faster than any other Sun Belt Conference team. The Mavericks have produced a minimum of 75 points in seven of their last nine games.
01-22-21	Fairleigh Dickinson v. Merrimack UNDER 138		71-76	Loss	-130	6 h 60 m	Show
These two teams just played on Thursday. Merrimack won, 62-51. That's a combined score of 113 points. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 32 percent from the floor displaying trouble handling Merrimack's zone defense. The Knights are likely to struggle with their shooting again with no time to adjust and ranking 245th in the country in scoring. Merrimack is no whiz offensively either. The Warriors rank 293rd in scoring and are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. They are 13-3-1 to the Under following a victory.
01-21-21	Eastern Washington -3.5 v. Northern Colorado		76-78	Loss	-104	16 h 22 m	Show
Look for a strong bounce back from Eastern Washington after it lost 99-94 to Southern Utah as 5-point home favorites this past Saturday. The Eagles are in the argument for being the best team in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has failed to step up at home losing to Montana State and Idaho. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their lined home games this season. One factor for this could be extremely limited seat capacity, which negates some of their home-court edge. Eastern Washington has a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging between 11 and 16 points a game. The Eagles outscore the Bears by an average of nearly six points per game. The Eagles also have covered seven of their past eight away contests.
01-21-21	Montana v. CS Sacramento OVER 119.5		78-66	Win	100	16 h 51 m	Show
The Big Sky is an offensive-minded conference. Montana and Sacramento State are the exceptions. These two teams are about defense. But the oddsmaker has set this total too low. It's the lowest total of the season by far for Montana and also the lowest Over/Under for Sacramento State. The Grizzlies have reached at least 62 points in nine of their 12 games. They've allowed at least 62 in eight of those contests. Sacramento State has a solid scoring threat in Ethan Esposito, who averages 16.9 points while hitting 51.2 percent of his shots. If you toss out a 65-43 loss to St. Mary's, the Hornets are averaging 77 points on the season.
01-21-21	Wichita State +3 v. Memphis		52-72	Loss	-103	15 h 48 m	Show
Memphis has played just once since Dec. 29 and it lost, 58-57, to Tulsa this past Sunday. The Tigers have outstanding talent, but I'm far from sold on the coaching of Penny Hardaway. Memphis has failed to cover in its last seven games. Memphis was thought to be among the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference before the season, but the Tigers are 6-5 and 2-2 in league. Wichita State is 8-3 and 4-1 in the AAC. The Shockers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and have a tremendous ATS road mark going 19-7-1 in their past 27 away contests. They have the perimeter defense to pull the outright upset ranking 12th in the nation in 3-point defense and they also rank in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage.
01-21-21	San Jose State v. New Mexico -6		51-67	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
First, note this game is being played at Dixie State University in St. George, Utah. So technically it's not a true home game for New Mexico. The Lobos have been forced to travel and settle in various locations such as Las Vegas, Lubbock, Texas and St. George - their current home away from home - so they are far more familiar with this setting than San Jose State. Games are not being allowed in New Mexico due to COVID-19. All of this has made for a frustrating season for the 4-8 Lobos, who are 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference. Now, though, the Lobos draw a patsy in which to vent their frustrations. San Jose State is 2-10 and also 0-8 in the MWC. The Spartans turned around their football woes, but not their basketball ones. If you had gone against the Spartans in their last 60 games you would be winning at a 68 percent rate. New Mexico has been very good in this role going 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus foes with a win percentage below .400. The Lobos have many flaws, including lack of rebounding and committing too many turnovers. Better shooting would cure some of that and San Jose State has the worst defense in the MTW. The Spartans are one of the worst defensive teams not just in conference, but in the nation surrendering 86.3 points a game. New Mexico gives up 15 fewer points per game than the Spartans.
01-20-21	Abilene Christian v. Sam Houston State +3.5		57-64	Win	100	14 h 32 m	Show
Sam Houston State has the best conference record in the Southland at 5-0. I'm not buying that Abilene Christian is better. Each team has 11 victories. Sam Houston State is 7-1 at home. The Bearkats average 82.8 points and have the best player on the court in Zach Nutall, who averages 20.4 points. Abilene Christian is one game above .500 on the road. The Wildcats average eight fewer points per game than Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State has covered in each of its last eight lined games.
01-20-21	Tulsa +12 v. Houston		59-86	Loss	-110	12 h 58 m	Show
OK, I get this is a monster revenge spot for eighth-ranked Houston. The Cougars suffered their lone loss, 65-64, on the road to Tulsa on Dec. 29. The Cougars have the No. 2 defense in the country surrendering just 56.5 points. But Tulsa is deserving of far more respect than this overpriced line. The Golden Hurricane rank 16th in the nation defensively allowing just 60.9 points a game. So obviously we have a very low total where points are going to be extremely hard to come by. Tulsa has the guard play and can score enough in the paint to keep things close. The Golden Hurricane bounced back after their annual road loss to Wichita State by beating Memphis as a short 'dog this past Sunday. That shows me they aren't a team to fall apart. Their defense will keep them in this game while their offense scores enough to keep them well within this inflated number.
01-20-21	Northwestern State v. Stephen F Austin -13.5		74-86	Loss	-111	11 h 30 m	Show
Yes, this is a mismatch. The betting line reflects that. It just doesn't reflect that enough. Stephen F. Austin averages 81.7 points per game. The Lumberjacks have the second-best shooting percentage in the country at 53.5 percent. Northwestern State gives up 82.2 points per game, which ranks 336th in the nation. It's a big reason why the Demons are 2-13 on the season, including 1-10 on the road. The Lumberjacks come up with nearly 10 steals per game. They also are a strong rebounding team. Northwestern lacks firepower. The Demons don't have anyone who averages even 13 points a game and only two players average more than 10 points for them.
01-19-21	Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova	Top	74-76	Win	100	14 h 56 m	Show
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty. The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel. Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games.
01-18-21	Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -4.5		50-59	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
Prairie View A&M has only played six games. But the Panthers' last three games were against major conference foes Louisville, Washington State and TCU. Before meeting those schools, the Panthers defeated Evansville of the well-respected Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS on the season. Grambling State isn't that good. The Tigers lack highly skilled ballhandlers, which makes them vulnerable to Prairie View A&M's defensive pressure.
01-18-21	The Citadel +13.5 v. NC-Greensboro		73-87	Loss	-110	11 h 14 m	Show
I'm going to take this many points with The Citadel, who average 93.3 points a game. That's No. 2 in the nation. The Bulldogs also are No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 43.1 percent. UNC Greensboro, by contrast, ranks 308th in field goal percentage and is 329th in 3-point shooting at 28.2 percent. The Spartans are not a strong defensive rebounding team so the Bulldogs could be getting second chance points, too. The Spartans have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home contests.
01-18-21	VMI +7.5 v. East Tennessee State		81-92	Loss	-107	11 h 10 m	Show
VMI averages 23 more points per game than East Tennessee State. The Keydets have produced an average of 90.6 points during their last three games. They have a standout senior guard in Greg Parham, who averages 18.4 points. I certainly believe the Keydets can hang in against East Tennessee State, which has yielded at least 78 points in three of its last four games. The Buccaneers also commit around 16 turnovers per game. VMI is the fifth-best free throw shooting team in the country, too, making 82.1 percent of its free throws.
01-17-21	Memphis v. Tulsa +2		57-58	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
Tulsa destroyed Memphis, 80-40, last Jan. 22. The Tigers had their opportunity to gain revenge at home when they hosted the Golden Hurricane on Dec. 21 and lost again, 56-49. Now the Tigers will try to beat Tulsa on the road having not played since Dec. 29 because of three straight games postponed due to COVID. Tulsa had been playing well with six consecutive victories and covers in each of their last five lined games. But the Golden Hurricane couldn't overcome their road jinx against Wichita State in their last game, getting hammered, 72-53, this past Wednesday. I see the Golden Hurricane bouncing back at home against a foe that has not been able to beat them. Tulsa has covered 10 of its last 14 home games.
01-17-21	Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Marshall		69-67	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
Western Kentucky came through on Friday beating Marshall, 81-73, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. Now the Hilltoppers go on the road against Marshall and are now underdogs. I don't think Marshall is the better team. So I'll accept these points. Western Kentucky surrenders fewer points per game than Marshall. The Hilltoppers rank sixth in the nation in free throw percentage at 80.5 percent. Free throws were the big story in Friday's game. The Hilltoppers made 19 of 21 while Marshall hit two of five. Why such a large free throw discrepancy? Did Marshall get homered? I don't know, but it's just another plus in the Hilltoppers' favor that they get to the free throw line far more than Marshall - and they rarely miss when they do get there.
01-17-21	Hofstra v. Delaware +3		68-67	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
Delaware defeated Hofstra, 74-56, at home two days ago in a matchup of two middle-of-the-pack Colonial Athletic Association teams. I didn't find anything unusual in that victory. The Blue Hens have been playing better since conference play began. They outrebounded the Pride, 40-29. So I'll take points with them in a home 'dog role. The Blue Hens have given up just 64 points per game in four Colonial Athletic Association games.They rank first in the league in two-point defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in overall defensive field goal percentage. Hofstra didn't shoot well against Delaware on Friday. But that shouldn't be surprising as Delaware has limited foes to 40.9 percent field goal shooting during its past five games. The Pride rank 225th in the country in field goal percentage at 43 percent.
01-16-21	NJIT +3 v. Albany		75-83	Loss	-115	7 h 52 m	Show
I find value in this America East Conference matchup of two weak offenses where even one point matters. New Jersey Tech is 4-4. Albany is 1-5. The Great Danes haven't scored more than 66 points once this season. They also have covered only 28 percent of their past 42 home games.
01-16-21	Wofford v. Chattanooga +2		77-59	Loss	-105	3 h 10 m	Show
There are 13 teams in the country with 11 or more wins. UT Chattanooga is one of them. The Mocs have been a hot spread team going back to last season compiling a 14-5-1 ATS mark in their last 20 lined contests. This includes an 8-2-1 ATS record versus above .500 foes. Wofford relies heavily on freshmen in contrast to Chattanooga, which is senior dominated. That could prove telling for the Terriers in this road matchup. Wofford has allowed 78 or more points in three of its last four games. The Mocs are averaging 79 points in their five Southern Conference games.
01-16-21	Army v. Boston University -119		79-59	Loss	-119	3 h 40 m	Show
Boston University won the Patriot League last season. The Terriers swept Army last season, winning by 22 points at home and 14 on the road. The Terriers have back their key player, Walter Whyte. He's the team's second-leading scorer and No. 1 rebounder. Army lacks strong point guard play and is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation at 59.6 percent.
01-15-21	Wisconsin v. Rutgers +3.5		60-54	Loss	-110	14 h 20 m	Show
Points aren't going to come easily with these two defensive-minded, hard-nosed half-court teams. So I'm attracted to grabbing points. Wisconsin has had trouble when playing at Rutgers losing the past two times there, including, 72-65, last season. I don't want to overreact to the Badgers' embarrassing 23-point road loss to Michigan this past Tuesday. But the Badgers did trail by 40 points. A game like that can't help their confidence when playing on the road. Rutgers' guard Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer on the court averaging 20 points. The thing I really like about Harper is he has the 13th lowest individual turnover ratio in the country. The Scarlet Knights have the 10th lowest turnover rate in the nation. So Wisconsin shouldn't be getting any easy baskets.
01-15-21	Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo	Top	76-69	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home. Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge. Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.
01-15-21	Niagara v. Manhattan +2.5		49-58	Win	100	10 h 32 m	Show
Neither team has much offense. But Manhattan is the better offensive rebounding team, forces more turnovers and has the best player on the court with Ant Nelson. The Jaspers also have dominated Niagara at home winning eight of the past nine times hosting the Purple Eagles, including the last five. Manhattan's average victory margin during these five home wins against Niagara is nine points.
01-14-21	Colorado State v. San Jose State UNDER 156		90-57	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
This game could get lopsided real fast. Colorado State gives up 64.7 points a game, ranking 61st in the country. San Jose State ranks 335th in field goal percentage. The Spartans, winless in the Mountain West Conference, have scored 65 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. Neither team is good at offensive rebounding so there shouldn't be many easy putback baskets off missed shots. Colorado State probably can name its score here. But the Rams and Spartans square off again on Saturday. So the Rams are likely to not run up a score and get their reserves ample minutes if the game gets out of hand, which is likely to happen. Given the circumstances and San Jose State's scoring woes, Under is the right way to look.
01-14-21	Washington v. USC UNDER 139.5		68-95	Loss	-105	15 h 40 m	Show
USC ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Washington is having a down year averaging just 63.3 points, which ranks 317th in the nation, and shooting 39.4 percent from the floor, which rates 321st. The Huskies are going to have trouble scoring inside against USC's star Mobley brothers, Evan and Isaiah. The Trojans averaged only 51 points in two games against the Huskies last season. USC has been frigid in its 3-point shooting during its past two games making just 6-of-43 for 14 percent. The Huskies always have had a highly-respected defense under Mike Hopkins.
01-14-21	Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho		74-54	Win	100	18 h 18 m	Show
Northern Colorado is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Sky Conference that has owned Idaho beating them the past six times.The Bears' average winning margin in these games is 20 points. Everybody in the Big Sky beats Idaho. The Vandals are one of the worst teams in the country. They are winless in nine games and 0-6 in the Big Sky. Northern Colorado is 8-1 ATS the last nine times taking on foes with a winning percentage below 40 percent. Bodie Hume gives Northern Colorado the best player on the court. The Bears give up 10 points fewer per game than Idaho, which is 1-8 ATS in its past nine home contests.
01-13-21	New Mexico v. Dixie State +3		72-63	Loss	-115	16 h 24 m	Show
Maybe New Mexico's nickname should be changed from the Lobos to the Hobos. Headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico has been on the road much of the season because of COVID-19 issues. The Lobos had been temporarily living in a hotel and working out of rented gyms in the Lubbock area of West Texas. Now the Lobos are leaving Lubbock to set up shop for two weeks in St. George, Utah. Before they get settled there, though, it was decided they would play Dixie State, which is in its first year of Division I basketball. The Trailblazers are 4-2 competing in the Western Athletic Conference. One of those two losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga on the road, 112-67. The Trailblazers are motivated to knock off this Mountain West Conference opponent. New Mexico has gotten destroyed in Mountain West play losing all six of its games with its average loss being 25.5 points. The Lobos have failed to cover any of these six games. The Lobos have been one of the worst ATS road teams covering only 33 percent of their last 76 away games. New Mexico has 12 new players on its roster. They started the second half of their last game, an 82-46 loss to Utah State in Lubbock this past Friday, with four freshmen. Lobos coach Paul Weir might use this non-conference game to continue the team's youth movement.
01-13-21	Rhode Island v. Massachusetts +3		78-80	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
I'm not buying Rhode Island as a road favorite in this Atlantic-10 Conference grudge matchup. UMass is a dominant 20-6-1 ATS (77 percent) in its last 27 home contests. The Minutemen average 13 points more per game than Rhode Island. UMass also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Tre Mitchell, who is averaging 20.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Mitchell leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring while ranking ninth in rebounding. Mitchell averaged 31 points in two games against the Rams last season hitting 23 of 35 shots from the floor. UMass covered both of its games last season against Rhode Island, including a 64-63 loss as 3-point home 'dogs. Rhode Island is playing at a different venue for the fourth straight game. The Rams were supposed to get a seven-day break after their 83-68 upset road victory against VCU this past Saturday as this game originally was scheduled for Feb. 27. But it was moved to today.
01-13-21	Tulsa +4.5 v. Wichita State	Top	53-72	Loss	-110	15 h 50 m	Show
Wichita State defeated Tulsa, 69-65, as a short road underdog a month ago. Tulsa wasn't playing that well back in mid-December breaking in new players and coming off a 10-day layoff caused by COVID-19. Tulsa had only one day of practice before that game and was out of sync. That was back then. Since that defeat to Wichita State, the Golden Hurricane have won six in a row covering all five of their lined games during this span. Tulsa has defeated four opponents picked to finish above them in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll. Tulsa is 3-0 in road games and has had a week to rest and prepare for this revenge matchup after its scheduled home game this past Saturday against Central Florida was postponed because of COVID issues on the UCF team. The Golden Hurricane have caused scoring problems for foes with their matchup zone defense. Only 13 teams give up fewer points per game than Tulsa, which also ranks fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Wichita State is not a good shooting team. The Shockers rank 290th in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent and are 224th in free throw percentage at 68.5 percent.
01-12-21	Cal-Riverside +15 v. USC	Top	62-67	Win	100	13 h 9 m	Show
Cal-Riverside is good enough to hang in against USC especially with the Trojans banged-up in the backcourt and in a flat spot. USC has played four straight Pac-12 games. This is its only remaining non-league regular season game. The Trojans just returned home after a satisfying Arizona trip beating Arizona this past Thursday and Arizona State this past Saturday. Letting down against a Big West Conference team is a real possibility for USC. Riverside has decent size and will play slow. The Highlanders should have plenty of energy and motivation stepping up in class. This is just their third game since Dec. 10. Riverside surrendered 88 points to Hawaii this past Friday. However, that was the Highlanders' first game in nearly a month. If you discount that matchup, the Highlanders are giving up an average of 57.8 points in their other five games. They own a 57-42 victory over Washington, a Pac-12 team, on a neutral court.
01-12-21	Eastern Michigan +11 v. Toledo		63-96	Loss	-110	11 h 10 m	Show
Toledo could be the best team in the Mid-American Conference. But I see a buy sign on Eastern Michigan after the Eagles upset Akron as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs, 71-59, this past Saturday. Akron averages nearly 80 points a game. So the Eagles should enter this matchup with confidence. They have a good backcourt with Bryce McBride and Yeikson Montero. They combine to average nearly 30 points a game. Toledo has a bigger game on deck when it plays at Akron on Sunday. Akron is tied for the second-best record in the MAC. The Rockets are 5-11 ATS against opponents with a losing record.
01-12-21	Miami-FL v. Boston College +3		62-84	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
Don't be scared off by Boston College's 2-9 record. The Eagles have played a murderous schedule and are in circle-the-wagons mode to halt a four-game losing streak and win their first ACC game of the season. This is their chance at home before going on the road for consecutive away contests. The Eagles lost to Duke by one point. Fell in overtime to Minnesota. Led Villanova by nine points before losing. Boston College lost 61-49 to Virginia this past Saturday. Wynston Tabbs, BC's leading scorer, was held scoreless in the loss to Virginia going 0-for-9 from the floor. Miami gives up eight points more per game than Virginia. Miami is a terrible 3-point shooting team and below average in free throw shooting. The Hurricanes could be without their starting backcourt, too. Chris Lykes, who led Miami in scoring last season, has been out with an ankle injury and Kameron McGusty is questionable with a hamstring injury.
01-11-21	Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State		58-48	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Indiana State upset Loyola of Chicago, 76-71, as 8-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Loyola, which ranks eighth in the country in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage, had an off-shooting game. The Ramblers shot 43 percent from the field and missed 18 of 27 3-point shots. Indiana State, which ranks 256th in field goal percentage and 200th in 3-point percentage, shot 44 percent from the floor and made 8 of 18 3-pointers. The Sycamores received 31 points from Tyreke Key, which is 16 points above his season scoring average. The Ramblers had won and covered their previous three games. I see them bouncing back in this short revenge spot. I expect them to shoot more like their normal selves while Key comes back to Earth.
01-10-21	Radford v. Charleston Southern +3.5		68-48	Loss	-108	6 h 4 m	Show
I'm not convinced Radford should be laying road points despite the Highlanders beating Charleston Southern, 79-64. Radford shot 54 percent from the floor and shot eight more free throws than the Buccaneers, who shot just 37 percent from the floor. Radford plays good defense, but the Highlanders only average 66 points. That's the same number of points Charleston Southern scores per game. Charleston Southern has the best player on the court in Phlandrous Fleming Jr. He averages 20 points a game. Nobody on Radford even averages 12 points a game.
01-10-21	Morgan State +3 v. Norfolk State		85-89	Loss	-108	4 h 5 m	Show
Morgan State has won and covered all five of its board games this season. This includes a 78-74 victory against Norfolk State yesterday. The Bears shot just 38 percent from the field, but held Norfolk State to 34.9 percent shooting from the floor. It was the fourth consecutive time the 'dog has covered in this series. Morgan State has a better record than Norfolk State and has covered the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Bears have outscored their opponents by an average of seven points during their last seven road contests.
01-10-21	Hartford +4 v. UMass Lowell		75-58	Win	100	3 h 6 m	Show
Hartford has a better record than UMass Lowell and short revenge for a 71-62 loss on Saturday. Lowell shot 53.2 percent from the floor in that victory and made 10 more free throws than Hartford, which shot 48 percent from the floor. Lowell's season shooting percentage from the field is 44.2 percent. Lowell is 5-11 ATS as a home favorite while Hartford has covered 10 of its past 14 road contests.
01-09-21	Lafayette +3 v. Bucknell		83-60	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
Sometimes you really have to dig to find a false favorite. When found it usually is a home team from a small conference that fits the bill. Bucknell opened a favorite against Lafayette in this Patriot League matchup. Bingo. The 0-2 Bisons shoot 35.1 percent from the floor and average 64.5 points a game. Lafayette averages 85.5 points a game and shoots 45 percent from the field. Lafayette has been a proven road money-maker going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role.
01-09-21	Washington v. California UNDER 136		78-84	Loss	-110	7 h 16 m	Show
Washington ranks 329th in scoring averaging 61.7 points. California isn't that much better ranking 271st in scoring at 67.6 points. This total, though, has come higher than expected, probably based in part on Washington giving up 91 points in a 16-point loss to Stanford two days ago. That was an aberration. No not that Washington lost. The Huskies are 1-8. But that the Huskies surrendered so many points because they usually can be counted on for good defense under Mike Hopkins, who brought a matchup zone defense with him from Syracuse where he was an assistant for 22 years. The Huskies could catch a break because Cal's leading scorer Matt Bradley hasn't played since Jan. 2 due to an ankle injury. Bradley averages 17.8 points. California's defense is respectable, giving up 68.2 points a game. The Bears are not up-tempo so that's another plus for the Under.
01-09-21	Delaware +2.5 v. William & Mary		62-67	Loss	-110	6 h 18 m	Show
Neither team shoots well. Each team is averaging just 65 points a game. Delaware, however, gives up five fewer points per game than the Tribe. William & Mary is on a four-game losing streak and has yet to win a game in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. The Tribe are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games. I think Delaware is the superior team. So getting points is a bonus.
01-09-21	Idaho State v. Northern Arizona +1.5		76-70	Loss	-118	6 h 17 m	Show
These are two bad Big Sky Conference teams. Northern Arizona hosted Idaho State just two days ago and was a 3-point favorite. The Lumberjacks lost, 73-69. So now Northern Arizona finds itself opening as a home 'dog. I'm not buying it. The Lumberjacks have short home revenge and the best player on the court, Cameron Shelton. He averages 21.6 points and 5.5 rebounds. Idaho State beat Northern Arizona because it shot 46 percent from the floor and made 22 of 26 free throws. Northern Arizona shot 40 percent from the field and shot 17 free throws, nine fewer than Idaho State. The Lumberjacks aren't a good shooting team, but I see them getting their revenge.
01-09-21	Texas +2 v. West Virginia		72-70	Win	100	5 h 15 m	Show
Shaka Smart has something going at Texas. The Longhorns are 9-1 and just beat Iowa State, 78-72, at home in a letdown spot this past Tuesday following a monster 25-point road victory against Kansas. Even though West Virginia is the home team, the Mountaineers still could be gasping for breath after coming from 19 points down with 11 minutes to play to pull out an 87-84 road victory against Oklahoma State this past Monday. Making the situation more difficult for the Mountaineers is they are dealing with a flu bug and Derek Culver, their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, is banged-up.
01-08-21	Lipscomb +2.5 v. Bellarmine		77-72	Win	100	10 h 13 m	Show
Wrong team favored. Lipscomb was the preseason favorite to win the Atlantic Sun Conference this season. So I don't see why Bellarmine should be even a slight favorite even being home. Bellarmine's 90-38 victory over some school named Mount St. Joseph in its last game does not impress. The Bisons have the league's preseason Player of the Year in center Ahsan Asadullah. Lipscomb is coming off a split against Liberty, which has the best overall record in the Atlantic Sun. That's far stronger competition than Mount St. Joseph.
01-08-21	Central Connecticut State v. Bryant -12.5	Top	64-76	Loss	-108	6 h 46 m	Show
Bryant buried Central Connecticut State on Thursday, 93-68. That score wasn't some fluke. Bryant is far superior. This class difference showed up on the boards and on the scoreboard. The Bulldogs put up 93 points, which is no big deal. They average 92.3 points per game, which is third-best in the nation. They have by far the best record in the Northeast Conference at 8-2, going 8-1 ATEarn a tidy profit before even sitting down for Friday dinner courtesy of basketball guru Stephen Nover, who was 2-0 on his Thursday college basketball plays pushing his three-year CBB mark to 146-105-5! Stephen has feasted on mispriced small conference matchups just like this one. This is his strongest small conference early-game play this season - and it's specially discounted! So take advantage and score a big reward. S in their lined games. CCS is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine tries as an underdog. The Blue Devils average 18 fewer points per game than Bryant.
01-07-21	Idaho State v. Northern Arizona OVER 132.5	Top	73-69	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show
The Big Sky Conference and defense are words that don't go together. The Over often is the way to look in Big Sky games and this matchup is no exception. Both teams are playing better and more offensive-minded rather than defensive-minded. Idaho State is averaging 84.2 points in its last four games. Northern Arizona has a decent scoring backcourt with Cameron Shelton, one of the better players in the Big Sky, and Luke Advadalovic averaging a combined 32 points per game. The Lumberjacks are averaging 81.5 points in their last two games. The combined total in two regular season meetings between these teams last season was 149 points.
01-07-21	Mt. St. Mary's v. St Francis NY +2		55-70	Win	100	6 h 43 m	Show
I have found a wrong favorite in a Northeast Conference game. I don't believe Mount St. Mary's should be road chalk aaginst St. Francis of Brooklyn. St. Francis is a terrible defensive team. But the Terriers also outscore Mount St. Mary's by more than 16 points per game. The Mountaineers average only 61.4 points. The Terriers are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times as a home 'dog. Mount St. Mary's is 2-7-1 ATS in its past 10 road contests and 1-5 ATS the last six times as an away favorite. Mount St. Mary's also has had to deal with a tough COVID-19 situation missing nearly a month because of issues related to it. The Mountaineers haven't played since Dec. 8. St. Francis last played on Dec. 23 so it shouldn't be as rusty.
01-06-21	Virginia Tech v. Louisville -4		71-73	Loss	-110	13 h 59 m	Show
Death, taxes and Louisville defeating Virginia Tech. The Cardinals have beaten Virginia Tech 16 straight times. Look for that streak to continue. Louisville is 5-0 at home. The Cardinals are playing well and have the shooters to take advantage of the Hokies' below-average 3-point defense. Virginia Tech hasn't played in more than a week because it's scheduled game against Virginia for this past Saturday was postponed because of COVID-19 issues on the Cavaliers' side. Not only will the Hokies be rusty, but this is their first game away from Blacksburg since Nov. 29 and first true road game. They've played seven of their nine games at home with the other two being at neutral sites. Virginia Tech has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups.
01-05-21	Florida +2.5 v. Alabama	Top	71-86	Loss	-101	13 h 13 m	Show
The last time I got involved in a Florida basketball game was taking 3 points with the Gators on the road against Florida State back on Dec. 12. Things looked good for Florida early. The Gators were leading the Seminoles, 11-3, when Florida State called a time-out. It was at that point Keyontae Johnson, the Gators' star player and preseason pick for SEC Player of the Year honors, collapsed on the court. The Gators obviously were shaken as Johnson was taken to the hospital. They went on to lose, 83-71. Johnson was hospitalized for 10 days. Florida postponed its next four games. Johnson is back with the Gators, although he's not playing. He's helping coach the team. The Gators have played twice since Johnson's collapse beating Vanderbilt, 90-72, on the road and nipped LSU, 83-79, at home this past Saturday. So Florida knows first-hand about adversity this season. The Gators have regained their focus. They can beat Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are coming off a huge road win against seventh-ranked Tennessee from this past Saturday night. Alabama beat Tennessee, 71-63, as 10 1/2-point 'dogs. It was the Crimson Tide's first road victory versus a top-10 team in 16 years. So there could be a letdown factor for Alabama even though this is an important SEC battle.
01-03-21	UMKC +3.5 v. North Dakota		77-53	Win	100	7 h 9 m	Show
These teams met on Saturday with North Dakota winning, 52-45. I can envision another low-scoring game so I'll take the points in this quick revenge setup. UMKC shot 35 percent from the floor, made 2 of 12 3-pointers and missed 7 of 14 free throws against North Dakota. The Roos on the season average 76.9 points, shoot 53.5 percent from the floor and make 57.3 percent of their free throws. This has come against inferior competition. But the Roos still should shoot much better in this rematch. North Dakota only averages 61 points on the season. The Fighting Hawks shoot 40.8 percent (286nd in the nation) from the floor and hit 28.3 percent (300th) of their 3-point shots. So they aren't a very good offensive team. They aren't very good at all being 2-8. They also got to shoot 29 free throws to UMKC's 14 on Saturday. Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. North Dakota is 2-7 ATS following a win.
01-02-21	Marshall -115 v. Louisiana Tech	Top	80-73	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
I see Marshall getting revenge on Louisiana Tech after losing, 75-68, to the Bulldogs on New Year's Day. The Thunder Herd shot just 39 percent from the floor and connected on 10 of 15 free throws for 67 percent. Marshall shoots 76 percent for the season from the foul line, which ranks 34th. Louisiana Tech, by contrast, sank 47 percent of its field goals and got to shoot 11 more free throws than Marshall. Marshall has a size edge on Louisiana Tech and has covered seven of its last 11 games. The Thunder Herd outscore the Bulldogs by six points on the season.
01-01-21	Arkansas State +3 v. Louisiana-Monroe		72-84	Loss	-110	15 h 30 m	Show
Arkansas State should be able to pull the outright upset with a decent frontcourt and UL Monroe's lack of scoring. The Warhawks average just 63.6 points per game, which ranks 301st in the country. Arkansas State has played weak competition, but the Red Wolves average nearly 13 points more per contest than Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks were bad last season especially on the offensive side and they are bad again this season shooting 39.5 percent from the field, which ranks 302nd.
01-01-21	Old Dominion v. Florida International -120		67-82	Win	100	14 h 29 m	Show
It shouldn't be asking too much of Florida International to just win this game. The Panthers are playing well and are 5-1 at home. They have a very good point guard in Antonio Daye Jr., who is averaging 19.4 points and 6.6 assists. Old Dominion is 1-5 ATS in its last six road contests. The Monarchs are scoring 17 points fewer per game than Florida International.
01-01-21	Wright State v. Oakland OVER 149		90-51	Loss	-107	14 h 28 m	Show
When Oakland is in action, my first look always is to the Over. The matchup and betting line make Over a right play here. Oakland is a terrible defensive team. The Grizzlies give up 85.5 points a game, which ranks 327nd. They also are 326nd in defensive field goal percentage as opponents have made 50 percent of their field goals against them. Wright State has the offense to take advantage, which is why the Raiders are such a heavy road favorite. Wright State averages 79.3 points and rates 30th in field goal percentage. The Raiders like to push pace, which is OK by Oakland. The Over is 6-1 in the Raiders' last seven road contests. Oakland's scoring has picked up. The Grizzlies have produced at least 72 points in each of their last six games. The Over has cashed in eight of their past nine games. The teams met twice last season and the combined total was 159.5 points.
12-31-20	Northern Arizona v. Idaho +3.5		78-65	Loss	-110	15 h 56 m	Show
This is a bad versus bad Big Sky Conference matchup. So backing the home underdog makes sense especially given the situation and style of play. Northern Arizona is 1-6. The Lumberjacks play slow, are weak inside and can't shoot from the outside. Not exactly a good combination. They average just 58.6 points. So how bad is Idaho to be a home 'dog to this opponent? The Vandals are 0-5. But all of their games have been on the road. This is their first home game and it comes on New Year's Eve. That's certainly not a fun travel date for Northern Arizona. Idaho is the better defensive team. The Vandals also are a much better 3-point shooting team ranking 104th in 3-point percentage at 35.8 percent. The Lumberjacks are 319th in 3-point shooting percentage hitting 26.5 percent from beyond the arc. Idaho has more size than Northern Arizona. I realize nobody cares about this game, including the oddsmaker. But value is value and I don't see why Idaho should be an underdog here.
12-30-20	Portland +4.5 v. Seattle University	Top	68-84	Loss	-105	17 h 56 m	Show
Seattle beat Portland in its season opener coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Portland was a 2 1/2-point home favorite in that game. The oddsmaker had it right. The Pilots are the better team. I believe the Pilots still are the superior team. They've gone 6-1 since that loss and have played a stronger schedule than Seattle. The Redhawks are 5-5 and have only two wins versus Division I teams - against Portland and Air Force. The difference could come at the free throw line where Portland ranks 20th in the nation sinking 77.8 percent. Seattle makes less than 69 percent of its free throws.
12-30-20	North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +4		67-72	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
Since opening with a four-overtime loss to Georgia State and a defeat to Mercer, Georgia Tech has gone 4-1 posting victories against Kentucky, Nebraska, Florida A&M and Delaware State. The Yellow Jackets are one of the most experienced teams in the country with four seniors and a junior composing their starting lineup. Each of Georgia Tech's starters average double figures in scoring. It's the reason why Georgia Tech ranks third in the ACC in scoring at 82.7 points. Georgia Tech doesn't have a long bench. But this spot sets up well for the Yellow Jackets' starters to play huge minutes. Georgia Tech hasn't played in 10 days and won't be in action again for another three days. North Carolina has been very uneven this season. The Tar Heels have trailed by double-digits in six of their eight games.
12-30-20	Western Carolina +4 v. East Tennessee State		78-86	Loss	-109	15 h 53 m	Show
This has been a road team series with the visitor covering six of the last seven. I see that trend continuing. Western Carolina is 7-2. The two losses the Catamounts suffered were to Troy and VCU, two solid opponents. East Tennessee State hasn't played that tough of a schdule. The Bucs are 4-4 and in rebuilt mode having lost their coach and all five starters from last season. The Catamounts have too much scoring for East Tennessee State averaging 84 points while shooting 47.5 percent from the floor. An outright victory would not surprise in the least.
12-29-20	Northeastern +18.5 v. West Virginia		51-73	Loss	-110	12 h 55 m	Show
West Virginia was supposed to host Buffalo today, but COVID-19 issues forced the Bulls to cancel. Instead the Mountaineers get Northeastern, a 1-4 team from the Colonial Athletic Association. Easy win for West Virginia, right? The oddsmaker sure thinks so with this large point spread. In my view, it's too big of a number. This is a combination of West Virginia being in a look-ahead spot and Northeastern being better than perceived. The Mountaineers open their Big 12 season following this game. Oklahoma looms on deck. So there's no reason for Bob Huggins to go all out against this non-league foe when he takes the big picture into account. The Huskies split against UMass. They also covered road games versus Syracuse and Old Dominion. The Huskies were leading Georgia by 15 points in the second half as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs in their last game before going frigid and falling, 76-58. Bottom line, I see Northeastern being a tougher out than this point spread indicates.
12-28-20	NJIT +12 v. Vermont	Top	81-80	Win	100	3 h 15 m	Show
I'm attracted to the underdog in this America East Conference matchup. The teams just played each other on Sunday and Vermont won, 92-78. So this is the shortest of revenge spots for NJIT. The Highlanders have the best player on the court in Zach Cooks. He made just 7 of 18 shots from the field, though, on Sunday. I expect the Highlanders to shoot better as a team and for Vermont to shoot much worse. Each team averages 73 points a game. NJIT made just 36 percent of its field goal attempts and was 6-of-25 from 3-point range in yesterday's game, while Vermont hit 56 percent of its shots from the floor and made 12 of 23 3-pointers. I see the rematch being much closer.
12-27-20	Drake -3 v. Indiana State		81-63	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
Drake is 9-0. The Bulldogs have played seven lined games - and covered every one of them. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs so I'm going to ride their unbeaten streak. Drake is consistent on both ends of the floor ranking 26th in scoring and 26th in defensive scoring. The Bulldogs also have the eighth-highest field goal percentage in the country. Roman Penn gives them the best point guard on the floor in this matchup. Drake has held its last eight opponents to 67 or fewer points. Indiana State is a perimeter shooting team. The Sycamores, though, are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point shooting. Their defense is even worse. They rank 282th in defensive field goal percentage and 299th in 3-point defense.
12-26-20	Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne	Top	102-88	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands. Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game. The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog.
12-25-20	Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5		85-76	Loss	-110	10 h 14 m	Show
The teams split their two meetings last season. There were a combined 122 and 127 points scored in those games. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup again in today's matchup. Neither team is used to playing on Christmas Day. This is a very early start time, too. The game is being nationally televised and there will be fans in the stand. I consider all of these factors as additional pluses for an Under. Wisconsin is the top defensive team in the Big Ten. The Badgers give up 57.5 points, which is the 14th stingiest defense in the nation. The Badgers have excellent size up front. So I don't see the Spartans getting many second-chance opportunities. The Spartans' leading scorer, Joey Hauser, also is dealing with a sore knee. Michigan State should play with tremendous defensive intensity following a lackluster, 79-65, road loss to Northwestern to open its Big 10 season this past Sunday. Tom Izzo called that game one of the worst of his 26 seasons coaching.
12-23-20	New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 141	Top	52-89	Push	0	17 h 32 m	Show
Boise State is going to factor in the Mountain West Conference and it's because of defense. Only 20 teams yield fewer points per game than the Broncos, who are holding foes to 59 points. The Broncos just beat New Mexico, 77-53, on Monday. The Lobos had scored 72, 104 and 90 during their previous three games although that came against extremely weak competition. But it's not just New Mexico. In its previous two games, Boise State held BYU eight points under its scoring average and kept Weber State 21 points under its scoring average. Defense should prevail again in this quick rematch since the teams are familiar with each other. New Mexico heavily relies upon Makuach Maluach, who averages 17 points. The Broncos held him to 13 points on 41.7 percent shooting. The Lobos lack any other consistent scorers. The Lobos are not a quick pace team so that's another plus for the Under. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Lobos' last seven games. Boise State has been a big Under team, too, with 12 of its last 15 games going below the total, including the last six at home.
12-23-20	Northwestern State v. Washington State -16.5		52-62	Loss	-107	12 h 49 m	Show
Washington State is off to its best start in 13 years opening 7-0. The Cougars are hitting their stride, too, winning by 28 points during each of their last two games. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Northwestern State. The Demons aren't very good - they are 1-9 - and they face a major fatigue issue. This is their fifth road game in six days and third in three days. The Demons have gone against top-ranked Gonzaga each of the last two days. This is Northwestern State's last game until Jan. 2. So it's not inconceivable the Demons mail this one in, or are just plain too tired to effectively compete.
12-22-20	Sacred Heart v. Wagner UNDER 139		86-85	Loss	-108	13 h 52 m	Show
The teams just Monday and there was a combined 120 points scored in Wagner's 74-46 blowout win. Sacred Heart should play with a lot of intensity in this shortest of revenge spots especially after being humiliated. The Pioneers forced nearly 14 turnovers a game. A key takeaway from that game was the slow tempo. Wagner is a slow tempo team. That's the way Sacred Heart is playing this year, too, being very inexperienced. The Under has cashed in 20 of Sacred Heart's last 28 games. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wagner's last 26 games. Sacred Heart ranks 327th in field goal shooting percentage. Wagner doesn't shoot much better ranking 300th.
12-22-20	Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. Fairfield		69-65	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson is playing better on both ends of the court. The Knights also have played a tougher schedule than the Stags, who might not have their full concentration with Christmas break following this game. Fairfield is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 78 points in its last three games after averaging 66.5 points during its first four games. The Knights have forced an average of 13.4 turnovers.
12-22-20	SE Missouri State +13.5 v. Indiana State		66-72	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
Indiana State is an inconsistent team that is laying too many points here. The Sycamores haven't broken 68 points in each of their last three games. Southeast Missouri State is 2-4. But it's not a stretch to say the Redhawks could be 6-0 as three of their losses occurred in OT and the other was by two points on a last-second basketball. The Redhawks have three good seniors in Chris Harris, Nolan Taylor and Nana Akenten.
12-21-20	Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay	Top	70-74	Loss	-110	17 h 35 m	Show
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites. The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay. Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them.
12-20-20	Weber State -5 v. Portland State		72-74	Loss	-111	9 h 8 m	Show
Portland State hosted Weber State two days ago. The results weren't pretty for the Vikings. Weber State buried them, 94-66. Now the teams meet again. So what has changed? Nothing really. Portland State has short revenge and a limited home-court edge. But this isn't nearly enough to offset a 28-point difference. Weber State is said to be much improved offensively this season. The Wildcats have shown that. Discount a tough game against Boise State and the Wildcats are averaging 89 points in their three other games. The Wildcats showed they weren't bothered by Portland State's full-court pressure style. The Vikings are breaking in new players. They aren't as advanced right now as Weber State. They rank 317th in field goal percentage and 327th in 3-point shooting percentage. Weber State isn't likely to win by 28 points again, but the Wildcats should easily cover this number.
12-19-20	St. Joe's +22 v. Villanova		68-88	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
I don't see the blowout oddsmakers are predicting. Saint Joseph got a lot of rust off following an 81-77 road loss to Drexel this past Thursday. The Hawks' previous game was way back on Nov. 27. St. Joe's took Auburn to overtime in a loss and was beaten by 22 points on a neutral court by Kansas in its two other games. So the Hawks are battle tested. They have two excellent scorers in Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk. Villanova was supposed to meet Virginia in a huge marquee matchup today in New York City, but that game was canceled because of COVID-19 issues with Virginia. So instead the Wildcats draw nearby Philadelphia foe St. Joe's. This is a huge rivalry game. The game means more for St. Joe's, which is trying to put last season's 6-26 record behind. St. Joe's is coached by Billy Lange, who previously served as associate head coach at Villanova under Wildcats head man Jay Wright. If the Hawks should fall considerably behind late in the game the backdoor should swing open as Wright would not want to embarrass his former assistant by running up a score.
12-19-20	Arizona +2.5 v. Stanford		75-78	Loss	-110	8 h 23 m	Show
Death, taxes and Arizona beating Stanford in college basketball. Those are among the few certainties in life. The Wildcats have defeated the Cardinal 20 times in a row! I see the streak reaching 21 consecutive Arizona victories in the series. The Wildcats are a deep team and tough on both ends of the court. Stanford lacks a strong inside presence and is vulnerable on the offensive glass, which is an Arizona strength. The Wildcats rank eighth in the country in offensive rebounding. Stanford has beaten Alabama, North Carolina A&T and Cal State-Northridge. Only the Alabama win was impressive. In their other step-up games, the Cardinal lost to North Carolina and Indiana. Those losses occurred on neutral courts. This game is on a neutral court, too, being played in Santa Cruz instead of Maples Pavilion on the Stanford campus due to COVID-19 restrictions.
12-19-20	Eastern Washington -9.5 v. Northern Arizona		80-64	Win	100	7 h 26 m	Show
The records may seem like this would be a competitive game between two Big Sky Conference teams. Eastern Washington is 1-4. Northern Arizona is 0-3. But it's not. It's a complete mismatch where Eastern Washington should blow out Northern Arizona far more than even this double-digit spread indicates. Northern Arizona is one of the worst teams in the country. The Lumberjacks' average loss margin is 34 points! Their closest game was a 24-point loss to UC-Riverside. They rank 338th out of 357 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KemPom.com ratings. Eastern Washington has played a far more difficult schedule. The Eagles lost 71-68 to Washington State, lost 70-67 to Arizona, fell 69-52 to Oregon and lost 80-75 to Saint Mary's. All of those games were on the road. The Eagles covered every one of those matchups except the Oregon one. Look for the Eagles, who were the preseason pick to win the Big Sky Conference, to unleash their frustrations and make a strong statement to hapless Northern Arizona knowing the teams meet again on Saturday.
12-19-20	Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. Albany		65-64	Loss	-115	9 h 37 m	Show
UMBC is 4-1 and has covered all five of its games. The Retrievers have looked much better than they did last season. Now they open America East Conference action today against Albany. The Great Danes were 4-20 last season. They have not played yet due to COVID-19 issues. It's difficult to believe Albany is going to be in game shape to take on UMBC having missed so many practices due to constant COVID-19 problems. So this is a very short number to back UMBC.
12-19-20	Purdue v. Notre Dame +6.5		88-78	Loss	-110	10 h 55 m	Show
Notre Dame is one of the most battle-tested teams in the nation. The Irish are 2-3. One of their victories was against Kentucky on the road with three of their defeats occurring to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Irish are a much better 3-point and free throw shooting team than Purdue. The spot is good, too, for the Irish. They played sloppy in a 75-65 home loss to Duke this past Wednesday. Purdue, on the other hand, is off a satisfying 67-60 home win against Big Ten Conference foe Ohio State this past Wednesday. Note this game is at neutral site Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Irish have the experience, coaching and pride to learn from their Duke loss to come back strong after a poor performance.
12-18-20	Weber State v. Portland State OVER 147.5	Top	94-66	Win	100	15 h 43 m	Show
Neither team was sharp offensively in their last game. Weber State scored just 59 points in an 11-point road loss to Boise State. Portland State suffered a nine-point road defeat to Washington State scoring only 60 points. I expect both Weber State and Portland State to score far more points than it did in those games as each is stepping down in class in this Big Sky Conference matchup. Weber State has a high-scoring guard , Isiah Brown. He's averaging 24.3 points. The Wildcats scored 88 and 85 points, respectively, in their first two games against lesser competition before running into Boise State. The Over has cashed in 12 of Weber State's last 16 games following a loss. Portland State produced 88 points in its last game versus a weaker foe before it met Washington State. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last nine home contests.
12-17-20	Cal-Irvine v. Loyola Marymount -4		48-51	Loss	-109	17 h 37 m	Show
I'm sure Cal-Irvine will be a strong factor in the Big West Conference again. But right now the Anteaters are struggling. The Anteaters are 2-3 with their two victories coming against non-Division I opponents while all three losses have been to Division I foes in blowout fashion. The Anteaters lost to Pepperdine, 86-72, at a neutral site, lost 77-58 at San Diego State and fell 91-56 on the road to USC. They are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. Loyola Marymount is 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points at Gersten Pavillion. Senior forward Eli Scott gives the Lions the best player on the court. I don't see the Anteaters getting right in this road setting against this opponent.
12-17-20	St. Joe's +1.5 v. Drexel		77-81	Loss	-105	14 h 38 m	Show
Saint Joseph's has better talent than Drexel with Taylor Funk, Ryan Daly and Jack Forrest. Drexel can't match that firepower. Yet Drexel opened the favorite. I understand the Dragons are home. They've played five games, while St. Joe's has played only two games, none since Nov. 27 because of COVID-19 issues. So, yes, there could be a rust issue. But anytime the superior team is getting points I'm highly interested in backing the 'dog. St. Joe's two games were against Auburn and Kansas. The Hawks led Auburn by three with 30 seconds left before losing in overtime. They were hanging in against Kansas until the final 15 minutes. Drexel is coming off a 14-19 season. The Dragons are 3-2, but haven't beaten a team ranked in the top 250 in the KenPom rankings.
12-16-20	Samford -120 v. Troy State	Top	71-79	Loss	-120	17 h 21 m	Show
Samford has gotten my attention with its last two games. The Bulldogs upset Belmont, 96-83, as 17 1/2-point road 'dogs and hung in against Georgia, in a 79-75 defeat, as 18-point road 'dogs despite not shooting well from the floor. Troy has played far easier competition in its last two games. Samford is far more explosive than the Trojans averaging 30 more points per game. This is a step down game for Samford and a step up game for Troy. The point spread is ripe to get involved with Samford.
12-16-20	St Francis NY v. Central Connecticut State OVER 154		59-78	Loss	-110	9 h 25 m	Show
The teams just met each other on Tuesday and St. Francis won, 91-86. That's a total of 177 points. The takeaway from that game was the uptempo pace and neither team showing much, if any, defense. Connecticut State has given up at least 79 points in all six of its six games. St. Francis averages 88.7 points in its three games. So it's perplexing that this game opened with such a low total.
12-15-20	Indiana State v. St. Louis OVER 140		59-78	Loss	-105	15 h 16 m	Show
Saint Louis is a run-and-gun team. Only 11 teams score more points per game than the Billikens, who average 92.3. They have five players averaging in double figures headed by Javonte Perkins. The Billikens are guard-oriented. They shoot and make a lot of 3-pointers. Indiana State ranks 300th in defensive field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point defense. Indiana State just lost 80-68 to Purdue this past Saturday. That game went Over by 11 points. The Boilermakers were averaging 61 points during their previous two games. The pace was fast in that game so that's a good sign for this one to go Over, too.
12-15-20	SE Missouri State +3 v. Evansville		63-66	Push	0	14 h 18 m	Show
Nothing fancy here. Evansville is 1-22 in its last 23 games. I'm going to fade them in this chalk role. The Purple Aces are a low-scoring team. They are 1-3 this season and are learning to get in sync having had two of their games canceled. Southeast Missouri State is the higher scoring team and a much better 3-point shooting team than Evansville.
12-15-20	Longwood +4.5 v. Radford		53-62	Loss	-105	13 h 15 m	Show
This is a rare instance of teams playing each other a second straight day. Radford nipped Longwood, 67-66, on Monday failing to cover as 4 1/2-point favorites. I thought Longwood was the better team then and I still believe that way. Both teams shot 45 percent from the floor. Radord, though, made 20 of 28 free throws while Longwood only got to shoot 10 free throws. Yet the Lancers still only lost by one point and had a chance to win at the end. I don't anticipate Radford having such a large free throw discrepancy this time around. Longwood guard Juan Munoz showed he was the best player on the court scoring 29 points. The Lancers have the stronger bench, which could prove important with this short turnaround. Radford has only one of its top seven scorers from last season back. The announced attendance for last night's game was 250 so there's not much home-court edge for Radford. Longwood has held four of its first five foes to fewer than 70 points. The Lancers have covered seven of their last eight road games, while Radford is 3-8-2 ATS in its past 13 home contests.
12-15-20	Buffalo -2.5 v. Miami-OH		90-62	Win	100	13 h 44 m	Show
Buffalo has lost some talent, but the Bulls still will have the two best players on the court in Jeenathan Williams and Jayvon Graves. They've combined to average 37 points and 16 rebounds per game. I see the Bulls having too much firepower for Miami of Ohio. The Bulls are tough on the glass and they outscore the RedHawks by eight points per game. Buffalo has major revenge, too, after the RedHawks upset them as 9-point 'dogs in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season.
12-14-20	Longwood +3.5 v. Radford	Top	66-67	Win	105	14 h 22 m	Show
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools. Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home. Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge.

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