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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-21-19	Florida v. Nevada -2	Top	70-61	Loss	-109	21 h 40 m	Show
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
03-21-19	Murray State v. Marquette -3		83-64	Loss	-117	19 h 42 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine. The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line.
03-21-19	Bradley v. Michigan State -18		65-76	Loss	-110	17 h 51 m	Show
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score. The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games. Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down. The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006.
03-20-19	Sam Houston State +13.5 v. TCU		69-82	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances. It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
03-19-19	Dayton v. Colorado -4.5	Top	73-78	Win	100	28 h 48 m	Show
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
03-16-19	Wisconsin v. Michigan State -4.5		55-67	Win	100	9 h 46 m	Show
Wisconsin isn't as good as Michigan State especially with the Spartans getting back forward Nick Ward, their second-leading scorer. The Badgers rely on forward Ethan Happ, who isn't a great shooter. Happ didn't play well in the Badgers' 66-62 victory against Nebraska on Friday scoring just four points and committing seven turnovers. The Spartans will key on Happ. The Spartans have the best guard on the court in Cassius Winston. The Badgers will try to key on Winston. The Spartans, though, have a secret weapon, freshman point guard Foster Loyer, to keep the pressure off Winston. Loyer played well in the Spartans' opening Big Ten Tournament victory over Ohio State on Friday. The Badgers struggled against the Cornhuskers, a team the Spartans rolled past, 91-76, at home three games ago. Tom Izzo has Michigan State peaking at the right time again. The Spartans closed the regular season beating Michigan, 75-63, as four-point home favorites a week ago. Wisconsin went up against Michigan on Feb. 9 and lost as seven-point road 'dogs, 61-52. Michigan State handled Wisconsin in the team's lone meeting this season, winning 67-59 on the road. The Spartans have covered 15 of their last 21 Big Ten games, while the Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten matchups.
03-15-19	Iowa State +1 v. Kansas State		63-59	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
The buy sign for me on Iowa State is on after the Cyclones buried Baylor, 83-66, in their Big 12 Conference Tournament game Thursday. I'm going to ride the Cyclones here. These two teams met a month ago at Kansas State. Iowa State won, 78-64. Even though this matchup is in Kansas City, Mo., the Cyclones have a home-court advantage as far as fan support.
03-14-19	Oregon -4 v. Utah		66-54	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
I like the way Oregon is playing. The Ducks have five straight wins and covers, including zipping past Washington State, 84-51, in their opening Pac-12 Conference Tournament game. The Ducks handled Utah on the road winning, 78-72, during the regular season. Now they draw the Utes on a neutral court. Oregon won that first meeting despite shooting just 5-for-21 from 3-point range and getting fewer free throw attempts than Utah. Oregon has the 19th-stingiest defense in the nation giving up 63.3 points a game. The Ducks have held their last four foes to an average of 51.5 points a game. Utah permits 11 more points per game than Oregon. The Utes have failed to cover in four of their last five neutral site games.
03-13-19	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7		59-73	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
I'm not buying into Pittsburgh getting hot with victories against Notre Dame and Boston College on Tuesday in the opening round of the ACC Tournament. I don't trust the Panthers' freshmen. Pitt is a bad team - 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games verus above .500 foes and 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games - and have had problems trying to solve Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone defense. The Orange beat the Panthers, 74-63, at home on Jan. 19 and 65-56 on the road on Feb. 2. The Panthers shot just 33.8 percent and 31.6 percent from the floor in those two games. Syrcause is stepping down in class after concluding its regular season with losses to Virginia and Clemson on the road. The Orange are 7-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.
03-11-19	San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's	Top	62-69	Loss	-109	9 h 18 m	Show
San Diego is playing well going 3-0 SU and ATS in the West Coast Conference Tournament. The Toreros enter this semifinal matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed BYU, 80-57, on Saturday. They are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times taking on foes with a winning record. St. Mary's enters the tournament off a disheartening loss to Gonzaga. That was nine days ago. So the Gaels are going to have some rust. Note this game is at neutral site Las Vegas. St. Mary's is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when playing at a neutral site.
03-10-19	Iowa v. Nebraska +1	Top	91-93	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
Nebraska plays much better defense at home and as bad as the Cornhuskers have been against the spread lately, Iowa has been worse. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in their last seven games. Fran McCaffery is back coaching the Hawkeyes after being suspended the previous two games. But Iowa hasn't been good for the past three weeks. If it weren't for a home overtime victory against Indiana, the Hawkeyes would be riding a five-game losing streak instead of a three-game loss streak. The Cornhuskers have revenge for a 93-84 road loss to the Hawkeyes on Jan. 6. Nebraska surrenders 16.3 fewer points per game at home. This is Senior Day at Nebraska and I expect James Palmer and Glynn Watson to play well. This has been a home series with the host covering the last four times.
03-09-19	Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -1		73-81	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
Texas Arlington is coming on in its bid to finish first in the Sun Belt Conference winning three in a row. Texas State is feeling the pressure of trying to place first. The Bobcats are coming off a bad 77-63 road loss to South Alabama losing as a three-point favorite. The Bobcats' lone cover during their last four games is against free-falling Troy. Texas Arlington has the superior defense. The Mavericks rank first in the Sun Belt in defensive field goal percentage. They are are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory and have covered 12 of their past 15 league games. I'm going to ride them again.
03-09-19	Texas Tech -2 v. Iowa State		80-73	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
I want hot Texas Tech going for me here especially in a revenge spot. The Red Raiders have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight while going 7-1 ATS. Don't expect any kind of letup either as the Red Raiders are tied for the Big 12 lead with Kansas State and want payback for a 68-64 home loss to the Cyclones. Iowa State is faltering losing six of its last eight games. The Cyclones have failed to cover six of the past eight times versus above .500 opponents. Texas Tech is holding foes to 58.2 points a game, which is the second-best mark in the nation. Iowa State just gave up 90 points to West Virginia and 86 to Texas in the game before that. Texas Tech defeated Texas, 70-51, in its last game.
03-08-19	St. Joe's +12 v. VCU		63-75	Push	0	12 h 54 m	Show
This is a letdown spot for Virginia Commnwealth, which just clinched the Atlantic-10 regular season title by burying George Mason, 71-36, on Tuesday. St. Joe's has been competitive. The Hawks are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS in their last seven games. They have the conference's leading scorer, Charie Brown Jr. The Hawks have covered eight of the last nine times versus the Rams and are 6-0 ATS during their past six visits to VCU.
03-07-19	Indiana +2 v. Illinois		92-74	Win	100	6 h 55 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Indiana's record. The Hooisers have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country as rated by KenPom.com. They have beaten a number of powerhouses, including Wisconsin and Michigan State during their past two games. It's a plus for the Hooisers that big man De'Ron Davis is expected to play after a bout with the flu. Illinois is going the other direction after peaking in mid-season. The Illini is 1-3 in their last four games. They have scored 63 or fewer points in three of their last five games. The Hooisers have covered six of the last seven in the series and are 4-0-1 ATS the past five times playing at Illinois.
03-06-19	Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic	Top	72-69	Loss	-108	17 h 22 m	Show
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
03-05-19	Utah State v. Colorado State +7	Top	100-96	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
03-04-19	Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	51-70	Loss	-108	19 h 56 m	Show
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
03-03-19	Marshall +5 v. North Texas	Top	85-82	Win	100	6 h 8 m	Show
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
03-02-19	Boise State v. UNLV -2		81-85	Win	100	19 h 18 m	Show
The Rebels beat Boise State, 83-72, on the road on Feb. 6 and certainly are capable of beating the Broncos at home. The Rebels are a basket away from being 4-1 in their last five games. Boise State, on the other hand, has fallen apart going 1-6 in its last seven games with losses in their past four games. The Broncos' lone win during this span is against San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. Boise State also could be minus its third-leading scorer as guard Derrick Alston is questionable with a toe injury.
03-02-19	Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State	Top	79-66	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
02-28-19	Long Beach State +8.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara		69-64	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
If you go by won-lost records then this point spread is justified. Long Beach State is 11-18 overall and 5-8 in the Big West Conference. Cal Santa Barbara is 19-8 and 8-5 in league. Current form-wise, though, these teams are much closer than this point spread shows. The spot sets up well for Long Beach State, too. Oddsmakers don't have time to do in-depth study on minor conferences such as the Big West. They are assigning their point spread number based almost entirely on their power rankings. But now the 49ers are playing their finest basketball. They are 3-2 in their last five games, including winning their past two. Prior to last week, the 49ers had dropped eight of nine. Note, though, that five of those defeats occurred by seven points or fewer. Their last four defeats have been by an average of four points. Sophomore wing Jordan Roberts has helped spark this improvement scoring double digits during in each of the last three games after failing to reach that figure in 22 of the first 26 games. Santa Barbara was a level higher than Long Beach during the first half of the season. The Gauchos had aspirations to win the Big West title. But that's not going to happen. Santa Barbara won't be able to catch UC Irvine with only three regular season games left. The Gauchos are just about locked into a top-four spot. Long Beach State is 1 1/2 games out of fifth place in the Big West. The 49ers have incentive to finish fifith in the conference in order to gain a more favorable conference seeding. The Gauchos haven't been good in these type of situations. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against sub .500 opponents and have failed to cover in five of their past seven home games. The 49ers average nearly two more points per game than the Gauchos. They also have covered in their last four road contests. Long Beach State is undervalued here and a very live 'dog in my view.
02-28-19	USC v. UCLA -3		88-93	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
UCLA is a better and different team than when it lost 80-67 to USC on Jan. 19. The Bruins had won the four previous games in the series. I see them bouncing back here. The Bruins are 12-5 ATS versus opponents sporting a losing road record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games versus opponents who have a winning home floor.
02-28-19	Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio		65-64	Win	100	8 h 48 m	Show
Old Dominion has lost just once in its last 12 games. That loss, though, occurred to Texas San Antonio. I see the Monarchs getting their revenge here. Old Dominion shot just 30 percent from the field in that defeat while the Roadrunners were on fire from long distance connecting on 16 of 31 3-pointers. The Monarachs are the superior defense ranking in the top-10 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
02-27-19	Marquette v. Villanova -5		61-67	Win	100	11 h 24 m	Show
I want Villanova going for me at home in desperate need of revenge and a victory. The Wildcats have lost three in a row. All of those defeats were on the road. They also lost to Marquette by one point on the road on Feb. 9. The Wildcats are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games. They have covered six of the past eight times versus Marquette.
02-24-19	Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5		77-70	Loss	-130	4 h 45 m	Show
I am riding MIchigan here. The Wolverines are 16-0 at home. They have covered six of their last seven home games and have owned the Spartans recently beating them by double digits during each of the past three meetings. The Spartans are dealing with key injuries. Against some opponents they could get away with it. Not here, though,
02-23-19	Florida State +7 v. North Carolina		59-77	Loss	-109	12 h 39 m	Show
Florida State is riding a season-high eight-game win streak. The Seminoles are off a 77-64 road win against Clemson this past Tuesday. They draw North Carolina off an emotional victory against its biggest rival, Duke. Any time the Tar Heels just beat Duke they are ripe for a letdown in their next game. The Seminoles are the best in the ACC in two-point percentage defense. The Tar Heels rank seventh in the ACC in giving up points per 100 possessions.
02-23-19	Loyola Marymount -1 v. Pacific		63-56	Win	100	12 h 46 m	Show
Loyola Marymount buried Pacific, 60-42, in the first meeting between these teams as six-point favorites as they dominated the boards and the Lions are in a great spot to do it again. The Lions are off losses to Gonzaga and BYU. They have been idle for a week. Pacfic just played on Thursday night where the Tigers lost, 58-32, to St. Mary's. Pacific is averaging just 50 points in its last three games. Loyola Marymount is tough in these spots, too, going 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times versus a foe with a losing mark.
02-22-19	Harvard -1.5 v. Brown	Top	79-88	Loss	-113	18 h 38 m	Show
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair. The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia.
02-21-19	UCF +8 v. Cincinnati		55-60	Win	100	6 h 9 m	Show
Central Florida is playing well with three straight victories. Cincinnati is tough at home, but I don't see the Knights being outclassed at all in this matchup. They are getting balanced scoring and play with a great deal of intensity. Both teams are strong defensively ranking among the top 40. So taking this many points is huge. The Bearcats have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when going against an above .500 opponent.
02-20-19	Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown	Top	73-85	Loss	-108	18 h 21 m	Show
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
02-19-19	Vanderbilt +18 v. Tennessee		46-58	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
Vandy is on a 13-game losing streak. But the Commodores have hung close in eight of those losses, either leading or trailing by no more than five points in the final four minutes. They nearly upset then top-ranked Tennessee on Jan. 23 losing in overtime. Tennessee just lost it's No. 1 ranking by losing to Kentucky this past Saturday. The Volunteers have to be down about that defeat. The Commodores take this matchup far more serious than the Volunteers.
02-18-19	Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin	Top	58-64	Win	100	18 h 5 m	Show
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent. The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close.
02-16-19	Northwestern +5 v. Nebraska		50-59	Loss	-109	18 h 26 m	Show
Northwestern is in stop-the-pain mode suffering five straight losses, including close defeats to Iowa and Rutgers in their last two games. The Wildcats lost those two games by a combined four points. I see the Wildcats bouncing back against Nebraska, which has become a point spread nightmare going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, including failing to cover in its last six home contests. The Cornhuskers' collapse has coincided with a season-ending injury suffered by forward Isaac Copeland on Jan. 26. He is Nebraska's second leading scorer and rebounder. Nebraska was lucky to end its seven-game losing streak by beating Minnesota in its last game. The Gophers practically handed Nebraska the victory. That won't happen against Northwestern. Bottom line is Nebraska can't be a mid-sized favorite against any Big Ten team right now.
02-16-19	Tennessee v. Kentucky -3	Top	69-86	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.
02-15-19	Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1	Top	77-81	Win	100	21 h 44 m	Show
This Horizon League showdown is being shown on ESPNU. It's the biggest game of the season for Wright State and I believe the Raiders will be up for the challenge. The Raiders are home and playing their best ball winning seven of their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Wright State is 11-2 at home. Northern Kentucky has a losing record on the road and has been very bad point spread-wise away from home covering only three of its last 12 road matchups. The Norse are 1-8 ATS the past nine times when on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. Northern Kentucky defeated Wright State, 68-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 11 The Raiders managed to cover despite shooting much worse from the floor than Northern Kentucky, making just three of 15 3-point attempts and shooing seven fewer free throws. Wright State's bench has improved since that defeat. The Raiders also rank 49th in the country in free throw percentage compared to Northern Kentucky, which rates 321st in the nation in free throw accuracy.
02-13-19	Rutgers +6 v. Northwestern		59-56	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
I see a close, intense game here with every point mattering. Northwestern has lost four in a row. The Wildcats have been held to fewer than 53 points in three of their last four games. Rutgers has covered four of its last six games as its freshmen continue to improve. The Scarlet Knights own straight-up victories against Nebraska, Penn State and Indiana during this span. The Scarlet Knights should be pumped in revenge mode for a 65-57 home loss to Northwestern on Jan. 18. Rutgers was without its leading scorer, Eugene Omoruyi, in that game. He will play here.
02-12-19	Marquette v. DePaul +3.5		92-73	Loss	-109	11 h 39 m	Show
This is a dangerous spot for 10th-ranked Marquette traveling after a huge home nationally televised victory against Villanova this past Saturday. DePaul is much improved. The Blue Demons have five wins in Big East play this season, which is their second-highest win total during the past 11 seasons. They have won two in a row. The Blue Demons are 13-3 when outrebounding their opponents. They outrebounded Marquette in the first meeting, but lost 79-69 on Jan. 23. DePaul made 15 of 19 free throws in that game. Marquette, however, was 28-for-32 from the foul line for 87.5 percent.
02-10-19	East Carolina +14 v. South Florida		68-72	Win	100	15 h 20 m	Show
Getting a late 3-pointer from David Collins, South Florida upset SMU as 5 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. That victory puts the Bulls 10 games above .500 for the first time in 27 years. South Florida is fat and happy as it returns home to face lowly East Carolina. The Pirates are having a rough season. But they should be pumped for this matchup while the Bulls are in a letdown spot. East Carolina has revenge for a 77-57 loss from two weeks ago and were called out by its coach following a dismal 65-49 loss to Wichita State on Wednesday. It's an added plus for East Carolina if South Florida is missing Alexix Yetna for a second straight game. He leads the American Athletic Conference in rebounding and had a huge performance in the Bulls' earlier victory against the Pirates with 28 points and 13 rebounds. Yetna is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Bulls may not want to take a chance on him for this game with a bigger matchup on deck Wednesday versus Central Florida.
02-09-19	St. Mary's +17 v. Gonzaga	Top	46-94	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
I recall St. Mary's upsetting Gonzaga, 74-71, as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs last season. But while I'm not saying the Gaels can pull a similar upset in Spokane this season, I do believe they can hang in and that this line is inflated based on Gonzaga winning 13 in a row with many of those victories occurring in blowout fashion. The Gaels haven't lost a game in regulation by more than six points since Nov. 21. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. St. Mary's may be down from previous seasons, but the Gaels still are very good. They rank 21st in field goal percentage and surrender fewer than 67 points a game. Gaels' guard Jordan Ford leads the West Coast Conference in scoring at 22.1 points a game.
02-09-19	Providence +7 v. St. John's		70-56	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
Providence is in circle-the-wagons mode here desperately needing a victory to keep alive thoughts of trying to make the NCAA Tournament for a school-record sixth straight time. The Friars catch St. John's in a possible letdown scenario after the Red Storm upset Marquette, 70-69, on Wednesday dealing the Golden Eagles their first home loss of the season. The Friars have the defense to hang in against St. John's leading the Big East in forcing turnovers and ranking in the top-50 in adjusted defense. The Friars also like to play at Madison Square Garden. They reached the finals of the Big East Tournament playing at MSG last season before losing to Villanova in overtime. The Friars are 9-4 ATS the past 13 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .600 home record. Providence has defeated St. John's in six of the last seven meetings, including the past three. The Red Storm are 0-4 ATS the last four times they have hosted Providence.
02-08-19	Princeton +8 v. Yale		60-74	Loss	-106	4 h 53 m	Show
I see excellent value here with Princeton. The Tigers have won seven in a row while covering in their last five games. They are 20-8-1 ATS following a victory. Yale is strong, too. But the Bulldogs can be vulnerable defensively. I prefer Princeton's defense. I'm expecting a slow pace, which is a plus, too, for an underdog taking this many points. The Tigers are giving up only 55.5 points per game in Ivy League play this season.
02-07-19	Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State	Top	77-70	Win	100	21 h 33 m	Show
I'm usually attracted to the superior team in a pick or underdog spot. That's what we have here with Hawaii against Long Beach State. Hawaii is 4-3 in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of first place. They are ranked 189th in the highly respected Ken Pom ratings. Long Beach State is 2-5 in the Big West with five consecutive losses. The 49ers are ranked 37 spots behind Hawaii by Ken Pom. The Warriors are surrendering 15 fewer points per game than the 49ers during the past five games. The two teams just met last Thursday and Hawaii was a 9 1/2-point home favorite. The Warriors shot 41.7 percent from the floor, missed 21 of 28 3-pointers and shot five fewer free throws yet still easily won, 74-57. So what has caused around a 10-point difference in the line? Well Hawaii is leaving the island following a 75-54 home loss to Santa Barbara as 3-point favorites, but that's not nearly worth that many points. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more straight home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus a sub .500 opponent. Long Beach State is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games against foes with winning records.
02-05-19	Valparaiso +8 v. Illinois State		69-53	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
Taking points often is the way to go in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Valparaiso gives up five fewer points per game than Illinois State and draws the Redbirds in a flat spot. Illinois State just beat Loyola of Chicago in front of a sell-out home crowd on Saturday in a first place conference showdown. Valparaiso is in stop-the-pain mode, strong defensively while the Redbirds are just average offensively. If the Crusaders can't pull the outright upset they should be able to hang around and get the cover.
02-04-19	Louisville +4 v. Virginia Tech		72-64	Win	100	20 h 54 m	Show
Chris Mack is a great coach and I expect Louisville to put forth a maximum effort following Saturday's 79-69 home loss to North Carolina. There is no shame in losing to North Carolina. There is shame, though, in how meekly the Cardinals went down to defeat. Louisville is 8-1-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Cardinals also have covered in six of their past seven road contests. Until falling to the Tar Heels, the Cardinals had won six straight Atlantic Coast Conference games, winning those games by an average of 18 points. So maybe they were due for a flat performance. I don't expect a second bad game in a row. Virginia Tech is coming off a bizarre 47-24 road victory against North Carolina State on Saturday. The Hokies only hit 36 percent of their shots, but still won by 23 points. Virginia Tech got away with not having senior point guard Justin Robinson against the frigid-shooting Wolfpack. But the absence of Robinson, who is out with an ankle injury, could really hurt the Hokies versus the Cardinals. Robinson is Virginia Tech's second-leading scorer and leads the team in assists.
02-03-19	Xavier v. Creighton -6		54-76	Win	100	9 h 58 m	Show
Creighton is undervalued given its tough Big East schedule. Xavier is not. The Musketeers are just bad this season especially on the road. Xavier is 1-5 SU and ATS in true road games this season. All of those road defeats have been by seven or more points. The Musketeers also are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests when going up against opponents who own a winning home record. The Bluejays average 82 points when playing at home. Xavier averages 68.1 points on the road. The Bluejays should be pumped, too, for this Sunday home game in a double revenge spot after Xavier won both meetings last season, including nipping Creighton by one point in Omaha.
02-02-19	Cal Poly v. CS-Northridge -8		65-83	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
Cal Poly is coming off a surpring 71-45 road win against UC Riverside two days ago. The Mustangs were 7-point 'dogs in that game. Cal Poly, though, is far from being a good team. The Mustangs were 1-9 going into that game. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games. They also are a very bad road team going 6-15-2 ATS during their last 23 away matchups. Northridge is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Matadors defeated Cal Poly on the road earlier this season and have covered eight of the last 10 in the series.
02-02-19	San Francisco v. St. Mary's -5		80-86	Win	100	4 h 10 m	Show
St. Mary's has covered the past five times hosting San Francisco. The Gaels have covered their past five home games and will be highly motivated to get revenge for a road loss to the Dons earlier this season. San Francisco has a revenge game on tap - playing Gonzaga on Thursday. The Gaels have won each of their last seven home games by 15 or more points. The Gaels are back to playing top-notch defense holding three of their past five opponents to 60 points or fewer.
01-31-19	Wofford v. Mercer +7.5		76-67	Loss	-110	7 h 35 m	Show
Wofford is in a flat spot coming off a three-game home sweep where it won two of those games in the final seconds. Despite those victories, the Terriers still have failed to cover in their last four Southern Conference games. Mercer is a bad road team, but good at home going 7-2. The Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home contests. The Bears hung tough at Wofford in the first meeting losing, 78-74, as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 5.
01-30-19	Fresno State -12 v. Wyoming		75-62	Win	100	11 h 15 m	Show
I want Fresno State going for me after the Bulldogs were upset, 74-65, as 6-point road favorites at Colorado State in their last game. The Bulldogs have not lost two games in a row all season. Wyoming is 1-6 in the Mountain West having lost six of its last seven games. Wyoming has been hard hit by injuries and lacks the scoring to keep up with Fresno State. The Cowboys average just 65.6 points a game, which ranks 323rd in the nation. Fresno State is 7-1 ATS the past eight times facing a foe with a losing home record. The Cowboys have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. They lack the manpower and experience to cope with what should be a fired-up and mad Bulldogs squad.
01-29-19	Tennessee v. South Carolina +9	Top	92-70	Loss	-110	17 h 3 m	Show
Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
01-28-19	Baylor +6 v. Oklahoma		77-47	Win	100	21 h 53 m	Show
Baylor is 4-1 since losing center and second-leading scorer Tristan Clark for the season with a knee injury. The Bears have come together following Clark's injury riding a season-high four game win streak. The Bears have knocked off ranked Texas Tech and won at Oklahoma State during this span. There are some key intangibles that point to the Bears keeping this one close - if not pulling the outright upset. Oklahoma just rolled past Vanderbilt, 86-66, this past Saturday in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge game. Vandy is coached by Bryce Drew, the younger brother of Baylor coach Scott Drew. So you know the older Drew has picked his brother's brain about how best to attack the Sooners. Not committing turnovers is one element. Vanderbilt committed 22 turnovers in its road loss to the Sooners. Baylor turned the ball over just eight times, tying a season-low, in beating Alabama, 73-68, this past Saturday. The Bears have gone more to playing four guards at one time since losing Clark. That could account for fewer turnovers. The Bears are playing tough defense holding their last four foes to 68 points a game. Baylor also leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin at plus 6.5. Baylor is used to playing on Monday after having just been in action on Saturday. They have done it the past two weeks, posting Monday road victories against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The familiarity in this routine is a plus. The Bears won both of these games straight-up as an underdog. Baylor is 4-0 ATS during its past four away contests. The Bears also have covered in four of their last five road games versus the Sooners. The last time the Sooners played on less than two days rest was back in November. Oklahoma hasn't been playing that well either going 3-3 in its last six games.
01-26-19	UNLV v. San Diego State -5.5		77-94	Win	100	4 h 49 m	Show
San Diego State is in a foul mood after blowing a 20-point road lead against Fresno State in its last game. The Aztecs are 15-6 ATS for 71 percent in their last 21 home games, including beating UNLV by 38 points last season at home. UNLV has covered just 25 percent of its last 41 away matchups. The Rebels have played an easy Mountain West schedule. So their record is misleading. Look for the Aztecs to expose the Rebels here.
01-26-19	Samford v. Furman -9		75-73	Loss	-105	17 h 50 m	Show
Furman is 10-0 at home with a winning home ATS mark. The Paladins have dominated this series winning the past six times. They beat Samford both times last season winning each game by double digits, including defeating the Bulldogs by 15 points on the road. The spot is bad for Samford. The Bulldogs are coming off a 107-106 overtime loss to Wofford as 12-point road 'dogs this past Thursday.
01-23-19	St Bonaventure v. Massachusetts -3		65-51	Loss	-115	8 h 38 m	Show
UMass is stepping down in class and can take advantage of St. Bonaventure's youth. The Bonnies are dealing with injuries and have been horrible on the road going 0-8-1 ATS during their last nine road games. UMass has the better offense and is showing improvement on the defensive end. The Minutemen are averaging nearly six more points per game than St. Bonaventure.
01-22-19	Duke v. Pittsburgh +13	Top	79-64	Loss	-105	19 h 25 m	Show
Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.
01-19-19	Northern Colorado v. Weber State -4		64-78	Win	100	11 h 2 m	Show
These are the two best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Weber State is 6-0 versus Northern Colorado during the past three seasons in regular season action. The Wildcats, though, have revenge. Northern Colorado ended their season in the Big Sky Conference Tournament last season. That game was played at a neutral site. Weber State has won 86 percent of its conference home games under Coach Randy Rahe. The Wildcats have a size advantage and the superior defense. Weber State doesn't lack for scoring averaging 82.6 points and is a strong defensive rebounding team so it can limit Northern Colorado's second chance opportunities.
01-19-19	Florida International v. Marshall -8.5		97-105	Loss	-105	9 h 47 m	Show
This is going to be a track meet. I see Florida International being slow here after coming from 16 points down with 12 minutes to pull off a stunning, 77-76, upset road win against Western Kentucky this past Thursday. The Golden Panthers were 10-point underdogs in that game. Marshall is unbeaten in Conference USA at 4-0. They are 4-0 the past four times facing the Golden Panthers, covering five of the last six meetings.
01-18-19	St. Joe's v. St. Louis -8.5		57-68	Win	100	6 h 13 m	Show
St. Louis is the superior team and on a nice run winning five in a row. St. Joe's upset Davidson in its last game. However, prior to that, the Hawks had dropped four in a row. The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are down their second-leading scorer, Lamarr Kimble, who recently suffered a hand injury.
01-17-19	BYU v. Pepperdine +3.5		87-76	Loss	-109	7 h 49 m	Show
Lorenzo Romar is doing an outstanding job with Pepperdine. The Waves have covered 10 of their 16 lined games, including going 5-1 ATS at home. Word is BYU could be missing its third leading scorer with guard Jashire Hardnett dealing with a hand injury. The Cougars have been brutal on the road covering just one of their last 11 away matchups. They have lost SU to Illinois State, Weber State and UNLV as road favorites already this season. Even in bad years, Pepperdine has been tough against BYU at home covering the past seven times.
01-16-19	Minnesota v. Illinois +2		68-95	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
Both teams aren't very good. But Illinois has played a tough schedule and has talented freshmen who are coming on. The Illini desperately need to win this home game. They draw Minnesota fat and happy after an easy win against Rutgers. The Gophers have a history of not covering against sub .500 teams going 6-20 ATS in that role the past 26 times. Illinois is good at forcing turnovers, are playing at home, in circle-the-wagons mode and won't be outclassed here.
01-15-19	LSU +4 v. Ole Miss		83-69	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
LSU showed it could win on the road beating Arkansas this past Saturday. The Tigers are a good value play against overacheiving Mississippi, which is in a letdown spot after breaking into the Top 25 for the first time in six years. The Rebels achieved this by beating two Top-15 opponents last week. Heady stuff, but the Rebels are not used to being the hunted now. The Rebels have been underdogs in their last three games, all SEC matchups. LSU has won five in a row. The Tigers are the more talented team with the size and perimeter shooting to knock off the Rebels straight-up.
01-12-19	St. Mary's -5 v. Loyola Marymount		71-60	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
I'm not buying Loyola Marymount as a live 'dog here. St. Mary's is a traditional power having won 20 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons. The Gaels can't afford a loss here knowing Gonzaga is highly likely to win the West Coast Conference. Loyola Marymount's 12-3 record is bogus because of an easy schedule. The Gaels have dominated Loyola Marymount winning the past 10 times, including covering in the last five meetings. St. Mary's should have no problem taking advantage of the Lions' weak 3-point shooting.
01-12-19	Drexel v. NC-Wilmington -3.5		83-97	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
NC Wilmington is in circle-the-wagons mode having already lost two straight Colonial Athletic Association games at home. The Seahawks draw Drexel, a team they have beat six consecutive times, with the Dragons in a letdown spot. The Dragons just shocked Charleston, 79-78, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog on Thursday. Drexel rallied from a 13-point deficit. Charleston had the second-longest home win streak at 22 in back of only Houston. NC Wilmington has covered five of its last six home games, while Drexel is 1-4 ATS following a victory.
01-10-19	Michigan -9 v. Illinois		79-69	Win	100	10 h 23 m	Show
Maybe things will turn around for Illinois. But probably not this season. The Illini are horrible. Fourth-ranked Michigan is far superior and doesn't lose focus. Even though they are home, the Illini may have trouble shaking a heartbreaking 68-66 road loss to in-state rival Northwestern this past Sunday. Michigan has dominated Illinois going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Illini are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games.
01-08-19	Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5	Top	74-85	Loss	-108	17 h 24 m	Show
Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
01-05-19	Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3.5		72-66	Loss	-109	10 h 47 m	Show
Northern Illinois enters this matchup off a deflating 88-60 loss to eighth-ranked Michigan State last Saturday. The Huskies hadn't met an opponent that high ranked since 1996. The Huskies are 1-4 on the road this season. They didn't beat a MAC team on the road last season. You have to go back to Feb. 21 of 2017 to find the last time Northern Illinois beat a MAC team away from home. Ohio is 7-0 at home. The Bobcats have covered seven of their last 10 home games. The Bobcats defeated the Huskies, 78-68, at home last season. That was the fourth straight time they have covered against the Huskies.
01-04-19	Buffalo -11 v. Eastern Michigan		74-58	Win	100	12 h 49 m	Show
Eastern Michigan has been one of the worst college basketball teams against the spread this season failing to cover in eight of its nine lined games. The Eagles have lost six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in four of those last six points. I think this line is short so I'm going to ride with 12-1 Buffalo, which has proven itself on the road covering five of six lined away games. The Bulls have defeated much better teams on the road, including West Virginia and Syracuse. The 20th-ranked Bulls should be focused since this is their Mid-American Conference opener.
01-02-19	Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming	Top	69-55	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
12-25-18	Indiana State +12 v. TCU		69-83	Loss	-108	20 h 54 m	Show
I like taking double-digits with a Missouri Valley Conference team especially in a rare nonconference revenge spot. Indiana State finds itself a big 'dog to TCU in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. The Sycamores rebounded from a 90-70 road loss to TCU on Dec. 16 to beat Colorado and UNLV in the tournament to reach the finals. The Sycamores were hoping to draw the Hornets Frogs - and they have. Indiana State played in the early Sunday semifinal game. So the Sycamores have a little added rest considering the Horned Frogs had to play in the late semifinal game against Bucknell Sunday. The Sycamores are the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. They've had one poor shooting game from beyond the arc - and that came against TCU. Indiana State was just 3-for-16 in 3-pointers against the Horned Frogs. The Sycamores are going to be highly motivated and they should shoot much better being ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal accuracy.
12-20-18	Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4		66-67	Loss	-109	18 h 44 m	Show
Long Beach is better than its 3-9 record may indicate. The 49ers are playing just their fourth home game. They are 2-1 at home, but 0-7 in true road games. Their road schedule has been tough, though, with losses to UCLA, USC, Mississippi State, Arizona State and Fresno State. The 49ers' schedule has been much more difficult than Pepperdine's. The Waves are 1-4 in their last five games, struggling on both offense and defense. Pepperdine has failed to reach the 70-point mark in their last three games. The Waves have yet to win on the road. They are are 5-15-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.
12-11-18	Colorado -5 v. New Mexico		78-75	Loss	-105	12 h 2 m	Show
I have great respect for New Mexico when the Lobos are playing at home like they are here. The Pit is a very difficult venue for road teams. Colorado has been weak on the road the past couple of seasons going 6-20 in true road games. Most of those losses, though, came to Pac-12 schools. The Buffaloes have a real shot to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Colorado has a balanced attack that is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.2 points. New Mexico is one of the weakest defensive teams in the nation ranking 351th in points allowed at 86.1 and is 334th in defensive shooting percentage at 48.7. According to the Pomeroy rating, Colorado ranks 60th in the country while New Mexico is 158th. The Buffaloes don't play again until Dec. 22. So they should be focused. The spread is short enough to back the Buffs.
12-08-18	Montana v. Cal-Irvine -3.5		51-60	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
Montana has been incredibly accurate from the field this season, but Cal-Irvine is home and is a strong defensive team. The Anteaters are experienced with 94 percent of its offense back. They already have defeated Texas A&M and St. Mary's this season along with a 20-point victory against Idaho. Montana has failed to cover during its past seven road games. The Grizzlies also are 1-5 ATS during their last six nonconference games.
12-05-18	San Francisco v. California +6.5		79-60	Loss	-107	7 h 20 m	Show
California has a lot youth, but the Golden Bears have five solid scorers and are excellent from 3-point range ranking ninth-best in the country in 3-point accuracy. This is a golden spot for the Golden Bears, who are home and taking on a San Francisco team that played in Ireland this past Saturday. It often takes a week to get rid of jet lag. Given Cal's shooting and the Dons' situation, taking these many points is worthy of an investment.
11-27-18	Southern Illinois -1.5 v. Colorado State	Top	82-67	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
Colorado State went 11-21 last season. The Rams are 4-2 this season, but have played a weak schedule. Southern Illinois is far more battled tested having taken on Kentucky, UMass, Buffalo and Tulsa, who the Salukis beat by 10 points at neutral site Las Vegas during their last game. Southern Illinois is the deeper team, has played the tougher schedule, is more experienced and is better defensively. The Salukis give up eight fewer points per game than the Rams. These advantages are displayed in the latest Kenpom ratings, which has Southern Illinois ranked 114th and Colorado State rated 200th.
03-23-18	West Virginia +5 v. Villanova	Top	78-90	Loss	-105	18 h 5 m	Show
This year's NCAA Tournament has been filled with upsets and extremely close games. I see that happening in this matchup. In most cases you have to go through stages to advance far in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. The Mountaineers still have their tremendous, tenacious pressing defense, but their offense is better this season. Jevon Carter is a tremendous all-around player, the kind of guard who can lead a team to the tournament championship. West Virginia averaged more than 80 points a game this season and its defense - both physical and athletic - will make things difficult for Villanova. The Wildcats have been bailed out so far in the tournament by extraordinary 3-point shooting. I don't see that continuing here.
03-21-18	Utah v. St. Mary's -6	Top	67-58	Loss	-106	19 h 46 m	Show
So much for the Pac-12. All the teams from that conference are gone now except Utah. That should tell you something about the strength of the Pac-12 and after tonight I don't see any Pac-12 team standing. Saint Mary's should have made the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are 18-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. The question with Saint Mary's isn't talent, but motivation. The Gaels have three key seniors. It's obvious now that the Gaels are out to prove the NCAA Tournament committee wrong by winning the NIT. They buried Southeast Louisiana, 89-45, in their NIT opener. The Gaels got their lackluster performance out of the way in getting past Washington, 85-81, two nights ago. I expect the Gaels to be sharper against Utah, another Pac-12 team. Saint Mary's has covered 12 of the last 17 times when playing a Pac-12 foe. Utah lives and die with its perimeter shooting especially from 3-point range. Saint Mary's ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense and 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Utah is hurt by a rule change in the NIT that stretches the distance to score on a 3-point shot. The Gaels, led by center Jock Landale, are the most accurate shooting team in the nation. I don't see the Utes being able to stay with them.
03-19-18	Washington +11 v. St. Mary's		81-85	Win	100	17 h 21 m	Show
Saint Mary's definitely deserved to make the NCAA Tournament. But the Gaels aren't a great team. They are down from past seasons. The Gaels played a very weak non-conference schedule, barely beat Pepperdine in the first round of the West Coast Conference Tournament and then were blown out in the semifinals by BYU. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Washington can match up to the Gaels being the more athletic team and having strong guard play headed by Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. The Huskies are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Part of why this line is so high is Saint Mary's being 17-1 at home this season. But the Gaels are not invincible at home. Gonzaga proved that with a 78-65 victory at Saint Mary's on Feb. 10. Saint Mary's also lost 84-79 to Washington State back on Nov. 24. Washington played Washington State twice and beat the Cougars twice by a combined 23 points.
03-18-18	Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5	Top	71-94	Win	100	18 h 36 m	Show
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here.
03-18-18	Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10		43-50	Loss	-113	15 h 53 m	Show
I'm still marveling at Maryland-Baltimore County's stunning upset of Virginia from two days ago. The Retrievers broke an 0-for-135 record of 16th seeds versus No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament by defeating the Cavaliers, 74-54. This is arguably the biggest upset in NCAA Tourney history. There is no way the Retrievers can come down from the heavens in such a short period to play a second consecutive perfect game to stay within single digits of emerging Kansas State. Maryland-Baltimore County was a 10-point underdog to Vermont in the championship game of the American East Conference Tournament. The Retrievers hit a long 3-point shot to pull out that win after losing to Vermont twice during the regular season by an average of 21.5 points. This is a team that was buried, 83-39, by Albany. The Retrievers clearly aren't in the class of Kansas State, a solid Big 12 team. The Wildcats are strong defensively particularly with their perimeter defense. The Retrievers lack the inside scoring game to hurt the Wildcats. Kansas State was most impressive, too, in its first-round tournament game holding Creighton to a season low in points in a 69-59 victory. It's an added plus if Dean Wade is able to play for the Wildcats after missing the win against Creighton.
03-17-18	Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas	Top	79-83	Win	100	14 h 4 m	Show
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style.
03-16-18	New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson		68-79	Loss	-102	20 h 22 m	Show
This is one of those No. 5 seeds versus No. 12 seeds that has seen so many upsets occur in the first round. I see this game fitting that upset pattern. I like having an underdog that has a coaching edge, is a strong rebounding team and plays very good defense. New Mexico State has all that going. The Aggies finished in the top-five in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Chris Jans has done a tremendous job in his first season as New Mexico State's coach. The Lobos proved they can step up in class knocking off Miami, Davidson and Illinois during a tough non-conference slate. They lost by just five to USC, a team better than Clemson no matter what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks. Clemson should not be this high of a seed. The Tigers built up their record by winning 15 of 16 home games. Their offense has gone downhill since their second leading scorer and rebounder, Dante Graham, suffered a season-ending injury in January.
03-16-18	College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn	Top	58-62	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright.
03-15-18	Montana v. Michigan -10	Top	47-61	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits.
03-13-18	North Carolina-Asheville +18 v. USC		98-103	Win	100	15 h 13 m	Show
USC can destroy this team if it wants. But I don't see the Trojans having the motivation after failing to make the NCAA Touranment. The Trojans were royally ripped-off in not making the tournament. This is their first NIT bid since 1999 - and they certainly aren't excited about it. Their home court edge isn't going to amount to that much either because it's spring break on the USC campus. UNC Asheville have experienced guards, which is a key in tournament action especially when on the road. The Bulldogs are excited about taking on the Trojans. They have covered in seven of their last 10 matchups versus opponents who have a winning percentage above .600.
03-13-18	Hampton +22.5 v. Notre Dame	Top	63-84	Win	100	14 h 3 m	Show
It's spring break and snowing on the Notre Dame campus. So it's hard to imagine the Irish basketball players getting up for this first-round NIT matchup knowing they were the final school left out of the NCAA Tournament, a tournament they should have been selected to. This what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey was quoted as saying on Sunday when word came out that the Irish were not picked for the NCAA Tournament: "We've had all kinds of things happen and on the most important day, it was a heartbreaking day. It's a tough one to swallow." I can't see Notre Dame being motivated at all. But is Hampton good enough to hang around? I believe so especially given this huge spread. The Pirates were the best team in the MEAC this season. They have played in post-season tournaments the past four years, including the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and 2016. Hampton has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Pirates have a pair of very good guards in Jermaine Marrow and Malique Trent-Street. The Pirates ranked 55th in the nation in scoring at 79.3 points per game. Notre Dame, which has been inconsistent offensively, averages 75 points. The Pirates are a strong rebounding team - tied for 12th in the nation - and have depth with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. This is important if the spread comes into question late in the game when Notre Dame is playing its bench players. Hampon is road-tested having covered 12 of its last 16 away contests. The Pirates rank among the top 56 teams in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. So there are a lot of checkmarks as to why Hampton can hang with a disinterested Notre Dame team that isn't likely to have much of a crowd.
03-10-18	San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico	Top	82-75	Win	100	5 h 12 m	Show
San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row. They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents. New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark. The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here.
03-08-18	Oregon v. Utah +2.5		68-66	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
Utah beat Oregon at Oregon by 10 earlier this season. Now the Utes catch Oregon off an OT win against Washington State yesterday. So a big scheduling edg goes to Utah. The Utes had a first-round bye and are playing better than the Ducks. The Utes are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Utah has the necessary point guard in Justin Bibbins and big man David Collette can hurt Oregon inside. The Utes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 games.
03-08-18	SMU v. Connecticut +2		80-73	Loss	-105	1 h 26 m	Show
SMU couldn't beat Connecticut when it had leading scorer Shake Milton and I don't see it beating the Huskies without him. SMU is 1-8 since Milton suffered a broken hand. The Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS during this time frame. The Mustangs haven't broken 56 points during three of their last five games.
03-07-18	Louisville v. Florida State		82-74	Loss	-110	7 h 56 m	Show
Louisville needs to play great defense to beat Florida State. I don't see that happening. This has been a down season for the Cardinals on the court and a terrible one for them off the court. I The two teams split their two games this season. Louisville won the first meeting in Tallahassee, coming back from a 17-point deficit. Florida State won the remtch, 80-76, early last month. Since that time, the Seminoles have been getting major contributions from sophomore guard Trent Forrest and freshman center Ike Obiagu. Forrest is averaging 14.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists during the last five games. Those two weren't major factors in the previous games between the teams. They give Florida State an added edge. Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with the pressure to win this game with their NCAA Tournament hopes likely hanging in the balance, but their defense slipped during February. They enter this matchup in bad form, too, losers of four of their last five games. Louisville also has failed to cover in its past four neutral site games.
03-05-18	BYU +5.5 v. St. Mary's		85-72	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
St. Mary's had to exert a lot of energy to get past stubborn 10th-seeded Pepperdine in Saturday's West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gaels are going to need to play better to cover this number against BYU. This was the fifth time in their last six conference games that the Gaels have failed to cover the spread. This is the revenge game of the year for the Cougars, who lost 80-51 to St. Mary's in last year's semifinal WCC tournament game. I don't believe St. Mary's is playing well enough right now to cover this spread.
03-03-18	Georgetown +19 v. Villanova		73-97	Loss	-105	6 h 44 m	Show
Villanova has no reason to play especially hard in this lopsided matchup, especially following consecutive overtime games in which their starters logged heavy minutes. The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth and must not burn out their starters with the Big East Tournament approaching. Georgetown usually can be counted on to play hard. The Hoyas have been at their best as Big East underdogs covering seven of eight times in that role with three straight-up victories. The Hoyas also have covered in their last four road games.
03-03-18	Kansas -2.5 v. Oklahoma State		64-82	Loss	-115	5 h 56 m	Show
Never mind that Kansas has already won the Big 12 Conference crown again. The Jayhawks have had this game circled ever since Oklahoma State upset them, 84-79, as 12-point road underdogs. Kansas is a solid money-maker on the road where it usually isn't that overpriced covering 10 of the last 14 times. Oklahoma State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home contests.
03-02-18	Rhode Island +2 v. Davidson		61-63	Push	0	3 h 51 m	Show
I see Rhode Island atoning for an embarrassing 30-point home loss to St. Joe's in its last game. The Rams have defeated Davidson four straight times, including a 13-point winner at home in their last meeting. The Rams have won 18 of their last 20 games and have covered in 17 of their last 24 Atlantic 10 games.
03-02-18	Pennsylvania v. Yale +1		79-80	Win	100	8 h 7 m	Show
Penn is playing well. But so is Yale. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six. The Bulldogs also are in revenge mode for a 59-50 road loss to Penn in the previous meeting this season. Despite that earlier defeat, Yale has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 8-3 ATS.
02-28-18	Nevada -3 v. UNLV	Top	101-75	Win	100	21 h 1 m	Show
Nevada is much the better team, has a far superior coach and this is the Wolf Pack's Revenge Game of the Year. UNLV handed Nevada its lone home loss of the season, winning 86-78 three weeks ago. That loss came in front of Nevada's eighth-largest crowd in Lawlor Events Center history. The Wolf Pack were missing their top scorer, Caleb Martin. He was out with a foot sprain. Nevada didn't play well, though. and the Rebels shot a blistering 50.8 percent from the floor. Credit to UNLV because it did play extremely well in that game. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. UNLV, a classless program, did a lot of trash talking during and following that win. The Wolf Pack haven't forgotten. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since. Martin is back and will play. Reno hasn't been swept in a season series by the Rebels since 2012-13, which was its first year in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV has a size advantage on the Wolf Pack. But Nevada can take advantage of UNLV's weak transition defense. Nevada has won the Mountain West Conference title already, but the Wolf Pack will be focused and highly motivated for this game. Nevada coach Eric Musselman said he won't be resting anybody that his team will be going all out. Musselman is a far better coach than UNLV's Marvin Menzies. UNLV has lost and failed to cover its last three games, including losing to Fresno State, 77-64, as a two-point favorite during its last home game. The Rebels don't have the home attendance they used to have because of the decline in their program. They have covered only two of their last 10 home contests.
02-28-18	Ole Miss v. Kentucky -8.5		78-96	Win	100	6 h 4 m	Show
Kentucky has picked a good time to get back untrack. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. During this span, they have posted double-digit victories against Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri. Mississippi, by constrast, is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Rebels are a horrible 1-9 in their lined road games, including 3-7 ATS. Kentucky also has covered five of the last six in this series.
02-28-18	Illinois v. Iowa		87-96	Loss	-106	8 h 17 m	Show
Iowa is a great fade now that it is tournament time. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 in the Big Ten Tournament under Fran McCaffrey. They have lost in the first round the past four seasons. The Hawkeyes enter tournament play losing six of their last seven games. They've allowed 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games and are giving up the most points per game since 1993-94. Illinois is coming off a 13-point road win against Rutgers and with strong revenge motivation after suffering a 104-97 home overtime loss to the Hawkeyes in their its last meeting. The Hawkeyes overcame a 20-point deficit to pull out that victory.
02-27-18	Oklahoma v. Baylor -3		64-87	Win	100	10 h 60 m	Show
Baylor is playing better since losing 98-96 to Oklahoma during the first meeting between the two teamsd. The Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS since that loss. Trae Young had a monster game for Oklahoma in the victory against Baylor scoring 44 points. Young, though, has tailed off perhaps worn down by the long season. I like Baylor in a revenge spot here. I don't see Young hurting the Bears like he did in the first meeting. The Sooners have failed to cover during their last eight road games.
02-24-18	Arizona v. Oregon -2		93-98	Win	100	19 h 48 m	Show
The Ducks received a huge boost in confidence beating 25th-ranked Arizona State on Thurday. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Arizona, which is likely to be minus second-leading scorer Allonzo Trier, who was declared ineligible by the NCAA this week for testing positive for a banned substance. The Wildcats have a much bigger problem than this, though. There's the real possibility that their best player, Deandre Ayton, could be suspended along with head coach Sean Miller. The latest news is all about an FBI investigation into the Arizona program with Miller and Ayton at the center of the storm. This obviously is a huge distraction.

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