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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-28-21	Oregon +2 v. USC	Top	68-82	Loss	-104	17 h 59 m	Show
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007.
03-27-21	Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas		70-72	Win	100	37 h 60 m	Show
I don't want to hear about a 15th-seed never making the Elite Eight. Nor do I want to hear about metrics, KenPom ratings and ESPN's Basketball Power Index. All I know is Oral Roberts is playing well, averages 81.5 points, is off stunning upsets of Ohio State and Florida and is getting double-digits here. I fully grasp that Arkansas averages 82 points and holds a rebounding edge on the Golden Eagles. I also know, however, that Oral Roberts was outrebounded by a combined 30 rebounds to the Buckeyes and Gators yet still won both of those tournament games. Oral Roberts has proven itself. The Golden Eagles are 19-7-1 ATS (73 percent) versus opponents with a winning record. They have an outstanding guard, Max Abmas, and a very good forward, Kevin Obanor. Oral Roberts ranks eighth in the nation in 3-point accuracy and is No. 2 in the country in free throw percentage at 81.3 percent. Arkansas can't match the Golden Eagles in those key areas. These two teams actually met back on Dec. 20. Oral Roberts led 40-30 at halftime, before Arkansas pulled away for an 87-76 home win. I like Arkansas and its coach, Eric Musselman. I was on the Razorbacks against Colgate and Texas Tech. But I don't find the Razorbacks double-digits better than Oral Roberts right now.
03-25-21	Boise State v. Memphis -4	Top	56-59	Loss	-110	17 h 21 m	Show
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers.
03-23-21	Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7	Top	72-77	Loss	-117	15 h 0 m	Show
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament. Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup. One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament. Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson. The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.
03-22-21	Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton		58-72	Loss	-105	14 h 16 m	Show
One of these teams is being disrespected with this betting line - and it's not Creighton. I understand Ohio University isn't held in high regard being from the Mid-American Conference. But all the Bobcats do is cover spreads. They have covered 76 percent of their past 29 games, including going 5-0 ATS the past five times as an underdog. Ohio deserves respect for not only beating Toledo and Buffalo in the MAC Tournament, but taking out Virginia, 62-58, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to the Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, the Bobcats rank 30th. They have a balanced scoring attack and showed their defensive abilities holding high-scoring Buffalo 13 points below its season average. Jacob Preston gives Ohio one of the best all-around players in the country. Creighton has endured a difficult season. The Bluejays shouldn't be trusted in this point spread range. They were extremely fortunate to get past lightly regarded Santa Barbara, 63-62, in the first round. I also don't trust Creighton's current form. The Bluejays are averaging a puny 56.6 points per game during their last three games.
03-21-21	Texas Tech v. Arkansas +2		66-68	Win	100	15 h 52 m	Show
There's no grey area with this matchup. Either you believe in Arkansas' fast and flashy way, or Texas Tech's old-school, defensive approach. I'm going the Arkansas way. I like the current form the Razorbacks are in. They have three big scorers and rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game. Arkansas has covered nine of its last 11 games and is 18-9-1 (67 percent) ATS on the season. Texas Tech has failed to cover 14 of the last 19 times it has met opponents with a winning record.
03-21-21	Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7		71-58	Loss	-110	10 h 52 m	Show
Loyola's always a nice NCAA Tourney story. But the Ramblers aren't nearly in Illinois' class. Yes the point spread reflects that, but not to the full degree. Just how good is Illinois? The Illini very well could be the second-best team in the nation next to Gonzaga. The Illini are playing at this high level going 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games. The combination of Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are too much for Loyola to keep this within single digits. Illinois has done this against major competition, too. The Illini are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus above .500 foes. Loyola hasn't been good when getting points failing to cover eight of the last 11 times in that role.
03-20-21	Grand Canyon +14.5 v. Iowa		74-86	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
Grand Canyon has been an underdog five times this season. The Antelopes covered every one of those games. Iowa is a great team, but Grand Canyon matches up well to the Hawkeyes and should go 6-0 ATS as an underdog. The Hawkeyes are led by star senior center Luka Garza. Grand Canyon has a pair of big men - 7-footer Asbjorn Midtgaard and 6-10 Alessandro Lever - that can bother Garza on both sides of the floor. The Antelopes ranked 16th in the nation in 2-point shooting at 55.4 percent because of their inside scoring. They also were 35th in the nation in offensive rebounding. Iowa doesn't have the guard play to force many turnovers, which is where Grand Canyon has some vulnerabilities. Making the NCAA Tournament is a huge deal for the Antelopes because they never made it before having just started playing Division I basketball eight years ago. Grand Canyon will be pumped up while all the pressure will be on Iowa. You have to wonder, too, if the Big Ten could be overrated following Ohio State and Purdue losing as big favorites during Friday's first-round tournament action.
03-19-21	Morehead State +13 v. West Virginia		67-84	Loss	-109	19 h 12 m	Show
Look out for Morehead State. The Eagles are a legitimate sleeper on a huge 19-1 roll with their latest victory being an upset of top-seeded Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference. I like the momentum and confidence the Eagles bring into the tournament. They rank in the top 35 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Eagles also have one of the top freshmen big men in the country in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome. He destroyed Belmont in the OVC title game with 27 points and 12 rebounds. Broome can hold his own against West Virginia's rugged inside force Derek Culver. West Virginia is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Maybe the Mountaineers can just turn the switch, but I certainly don't see them winning by double-digits.
03-19-21	Liberty v. Oklahoma State -7		60-69	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
Liberty plays extremely slow, but is very efficient offensively. The Flames could frustrate Oklahoma State. But I don't believe that will happen. The Cowboys are hot, played a far more difficult schedule and feature superstar guard Cade Cunningham. That combination should enable them to cover this mid-range number. Oklahoma State emerged as a Big 12 Conference power knocking off No. 2 Baylor in the conference semifinals before falling to Texas, 91-86, in the conference tourney title game. That loss may actually help the Cowboys because they won't be taking Liberty lightly after defeating six ranked teams this month. Oklahoma State has covered seven of the eight times it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Flames earned their way to the NCAA Tournament by capturing the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. I regard the Atlantic Sun as a bottom-five conference. One of Liberty's non-league victories came against Lancaster Bible, 90-49. So that padded the Flames' season statistics. When Liberty went up against NCAA Tournament teams Missouri and Purdue earlier in the season they lost by 9 and 13 points.
03-19-21	Oral Roberts +16 v. Ohio State		75-72	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Ohio State does not have a good recent history in the NCAA Tourney. The Buckeyes enter this first round matchup banged-up and off a grueling four-day Big Ten Tournament that didn't conclude until Sunday. The Buckeyes had two overtime games, too, in the Big Ten Tourney. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, has had ample rest and preparation time having won the Summit League Tournament back on March 9. The Golden Eagles average nearly four more points than Ohio State and lead the nation in free throw percentage at 82.4 percent in made 3-pointers. They have one of the best guards in the nation, Max Abmas, to go with inside scoring. So this is going to be a very tough matchup for Ohio State, which may not be 100 percent physically and mentally ready.
03-19-21	Colgate v. Arkansas -8		68-85	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
Colgate and Arkansas are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. But that's where the similarity ends. The Razorbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 games with all of their victories during this span occurring versus SEC opponents. Arkansas has won eight games against NCAA Tournament teams, including Alabama, Missouri, Florida, LSU, North Texas, Abilene Christian and Oral Roberts. Arkansas has the best player on the court, too, in Moses Moody. Colgate has only played 15 games this season - all of which were in their Patriot League. Now the Raiders are asked to stay within single digits of maybe the best team in the SEC. I don't see it. Arkansas is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times it has been favored, covering against better teams than Colgate.
03-18-21	SMU v. Boise State	Top	84-85	Win	100	31 h 30 m	Show
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified. SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1. Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr. There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU. This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game. The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.
03-14-21	VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure	Top	65-74	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
03-13-21	Ohio v. Buffalo -2		84-69	Loss	-110	14 h 5 m	Show
Buffalo has won 10 of its past 11 games, including the last seven. One of the Bulls' more impressive victories came against Ohio during the last game of the regular season on Feb. 27. The Bulls buried the Bobcats, 86-66, on the road. Not only do the Bulls rank ninth in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points a game, but they are fifth in defensive 3-point percentage. Ohio is reliant on its perimeter and 3-point shooting. Buffalo is going to get its points. The Bulls have scored at least 74 points in all but two of their games this season. They also have loads of tournament experience having reached the MAC title game five times new since 2015. The Bulls have won four of the past five MAC championship games, including 2019. The Bulls have six players on their roster from that championship victory.
03-12-21	Akron v. Buffalo -4	Top	74-81	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
03-12-21	Missouri v. Arkansas -4		64-70	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
I liked the job Eric Musselman did at Nevada-Reno and I like what he's accomplishing at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are peaking with eight straight victories. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. Arkansas has scored at least 81 points in six of its last seven games. Missouri ranks 227th defensively yielding 72.1 points per game. Missouri is 16-8. The Tigers are fortunate to have that record, though, as they are 6-1 in games decided by five points or less. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they've gone against an above .500 foe.
03-12-21	Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5	Top	66-58	Loss	-103	14 h 20 m	Show
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days.
03-11-21	Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15		51-58	Loss	-110	12 h 18 m	Show
Twice these teams have met this season. The results were similar. Cal-Irvine won 68-49 on Jan. 22 and beat Cal Poly-SLO again, 67-44, on Jan. 23. The margins of those victories were 19 and 23 points, respectively. I'm not anticipating anything closer this time around either. Cal Poly surprised Cal-State Fullerton, 87-82, two days ago in the opening of this Big West Conference Tournament. The Titans were rusty having played just twice following a COVID-19 pause. Still, Cal-Poly scoring that many points was an outlier. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation. Even with that victory, they are 2-17 in their last 19 games. The Mustangs entered that matchup averaging 59.5 points in their previous five games while ranked 342nd in scoring and 335th in field goal percentage. Cal Irvine isn't going to take Cal Poly lightly now after seeing what the Mustangs did to Cal-State Fullerton. Unlike the Titans, the Anteaters enter tournament play on the upswing winning six of their last seven, including a 15-point road win against Long Beach State in their last game five days ago. The Anteaters rank 29th defensively giving up 63.4 points per game. They are seventh in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Cal-Poly won't be able to handle that strong of a defense just like in the first two games between the teams.
03-11-21	Rider v. St. Peter's -5.5		60-75	Win	100	11 h 11 m	Show
Rider is stepping up in class meeting Saint Peter's in this quarterfinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The Broncos lost 13 of 18 conference games, but reached this game by upsetting Canisius in the first round. Don't expect a second straight conference tournament upset win from Rider. Only 12 teams in the nation give up fewer points per game than Saint Peter's, which allows 62. The Peacocks also rank No. 3 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Sparked by KC Ndefo, the Peacocks rank first in blocked shots. Ndefo, a tremendous leaper, leads the nation in blocked shots at 3.7 per game. Rider ranks 275th in scoring at 67.4 points. The Broncos are hoping to keep this close because Saint Peter's is a weak offensive team. The Broncos, however, surrender nearly 74 points a game and are well below average defensively. Note, too, that Saint Peter's has covered seven of its last eight neutral site games.
03-10-21	Nebraska v. Penn State -6	Top	66-72	Push	0	17 h 26 m	Show
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent.
03-09-21	Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5	Top	87-82	Loss	-110	18 h 3 m	Show
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
03-09-21	McNeese State -2.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana		68-71	Loss	-110	14 h 59 m	Show
Still another case here of the lower seed being the better team. McNeese State, the No. 9 seed in this Southland Conference Tournament, ranks 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.8 points. Southeast Louisiana, the No. 8 seed, gives up 78 points. The Cowboys, with Keyshawn Feazell down low, should have too much scoring and rebounding for Southeast Louisiana, which was outrebounded, 43-30, by New Orleans in its previous game.
03-07-21	Florida v. Tennessee -4.5		54-65	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
I'm going with revenge, home-court and the superior defense in this matchup. All these reasons put me on Tennessee. The Volunteers have had this matchup circled ever since Florida dealt them their worst loss of the season, 75-49, back on Jan. 19. Tennessee is trying to regain the dominance it showed earlier in the season. Florida hasn't been playing that well either, though. The Gators are 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six games. They lost as 4-point home favorites, 72-70, to Missouri this past Wednesday in their last game. Tennessee has the stingiest defense in the SEC. The Volunteers rank among the top-30 defenses nation-wide. They give up seven fewer points per game than Florida.
03-06-21	CS-Fullerton +2.5 v. UC San Diego		78-85	Loss	-109	8 h 13 m	Show
I'm looking for Cal State-Fullerton to get revenge against San Diego after the Tritons nipped the Titans, 89-85, on Friday. The Titans outrebounded San Diego by 17 boards, but the Tritons were on fire with their shooting. San Diego shot 52 percent from the field and connected on 16 of 33 3-pointers for 48 percent. The Titans shot 49 percent from the floor and made 7 of 20 3-pointers for 35 percent. San Diego has won just six games all season and half of those victories were against non-Division I opponents.
03-06-21	Alabama State +13.5 v. Jackson State		54-79	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
Points are going to be at a premium here with such a low total. This low total is justified, though. Jackson State is a tremendous defensive team. However, the Tigers are extremely limited offensively. They rank among the bottom 20 teams in the nation in scoring at 63.1 points a game and shooting percentage at 37.9 percent. They also are a below average free throw shooting team. The Tigers are averaging only 58.5 points in regulation during their past five games. Alabama State can keep this within single digits. The Hornets are decent on the glass and averaging 68.2 points in their last eight games.
03-06-21	Butler +13 v. Creighton	Top	73-93	Loss	-110	13 h 28 m	Show
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again.
03-05-21	Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7		71-69	Loss	-105	15 h 4 m	Show
Western Kentucky is the class of Conference USA at 10-2 in league and 17-5 overall. Old Dominion is 10-4 in league, but 14-6 overall. The Monarchs have fattened their record by playing four games against Charlotte and Middle Tennessee State during their last six games. Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. I don't see the Monarchs stepping up to keep things close here. Old Dominion can't hit 3-pointers, nor defend well against 3-pointers. Western Kentucky can exploit those perimeter weaknesses while dominating inside with 6-foot-11 star center Charles Bassley, who averages 17.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. I see a double-digit Hilltoppers victory.
03-05-21	Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5	Top	72-80	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama.
03-04-21	Wyoming +16.5 v. Utah State		59-72	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
Utah State hasn't been consistent enough to lay this large of a number. The Aggies are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. The Cowboys are at their best in this role covering 14 of the past 18 times as a road 'dog. Wyoming has one of the better backcourt tandems in the Mountain West with Marcus Williams and Hunter Maldonado. The Cowboys also have been playing better defense holding their last three foes to an average of 68.6 points.
03-04-21	Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor	Top	70-81	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2.
03-02-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5	Top	69-73	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69. The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.
03-01-21	Hampton +8.5 v. Radford		52-67	Loss	-105	13 h 0 m	Show
Hampton's season is on the line with this being a quarterfinal game in the Big South Conference Tournament. I think the Pirates will keep this close especially since Radford hasn't been playing well. Radford is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone victory during this time frame coming against Mt. Aloysius, a non-Division I opponent. Radford has averaged only 54.2 points during their past four losses. Hampton has a decent backcourt and the best low-post player on the court, Dajour Dickens. The 7-footer ranks second in the nation in blocked shots averaging 3.48 per game.
02-28-21	Quinnipiac +3 v. Marist		67-76	Loss	-109	13 h 57 m	Show
I believe the wrong team is favored. Marist is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Red Foxes have played only two games this month. They average just 62.7 points a game. That puny average shrinks even more to 52.5 counting just their last four games. Quinnipiac has won and covered three in a row. The Bobcats have one of the stronger defenses in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. They rank sixth nationally in defensive field goal percentage, while averaging nearly eight points more per game than Marist. The underdog has covered five of the last six in this series. That's easy to see why when the oddsmaker makes a wrong favorite like this.
02-28-21	Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland	Top	55-73	Loss	-105	11 h 20 m	Show
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days. Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.
02-27-21	Baylor v. Kansas +5	Top	58-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30. It showed. The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72. No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation. Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984. Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.
02-27-21	Abilene Christian v. Central Arkansas +17.5		82-84	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Central Arkansas is in revenge mode after a 93-58 road loss to Abilene Christian on Jan. 23. Central Arkansas was banged-up earlier, but now is healthier. The Bears are 4-1 ATS when catching 11 or more points this season. They have scored 68 or more points in three of their past five games. Abilene Christian has surrendered 69 or more points in two of its last four games. The Wildcats have failed to cover five of their last six away contests.
02-27-21	SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +3.5		69-63	Loss	-118	11 h 56 m	Show
The spot and dynamics are right for SIU Edwardsville to pull off this Ohio Valley Conference upset. The Cougars were nipped by Southeast Missouri State, 64-62, as 3-point road 'dogs on Jan. 28. The Redhawks may have had some home cooking in that one as they shot 32 free throws compared to 17 for the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville has held its last two foes, Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin, to 56 and 53 points, respectively. The Cougars have covered seven of the last eight times when meeting a below .500 opponent. Southeast Missouri State may be dealing with a letdown spot after upsetting Eastern Illinois on the road two days ago. The Redhawks are 6-17-1 ATS the last 24 times following a victory.
02-27-21	Texas Southern v. Alabama State +10.5		86-76	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
The oddsmaker isn't paying enough attention to the current form of these two teams. I guess you can't blame him with this being a Southwest Athletic Conference matchup. Alabama State has improved its defense holding four of its past five foes to fewer than 69 points a game. Alabama State has a top-50 defense against 3-pointers. Texas Southern is just an average scoring team and a terrible 3-point shooting team. If you toss out the Tigers' victory against Mississippi Valley State - one of the worst teams in Division I - they are giving up 72.5 points in their last four games.
02-27-21	Central Michigan +11.5 v. Ball State		91-97	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Central Michigan hung in against Buffalo on the road in its last game losing, 85-73, easily covering as 21 1/2-point 'dogs. Buffalo only outscored Central Michigan by four points in the second half. Ball State hasn't been a favorite in more than a month. This isn't surprising considering the Cardinals have a losing record and are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games. The Cardinals can get up for some of the better teams in the MAC, but they aren't strong enough to lay double-digits against any of the conference teams with the exception of Northern Illinois.
02-26-21	Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3		58-43	Loss	-106	7 h 40 m	Show
Valparaiso is better than its 9-16 record. Valparaiso dealt Drake its first loss of the season and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in its other game against them. Valparaiso also played Loyola of Chicago very tough losing by just two to the Ramblers. Indiana State has a below offense and has given up 70 or more points in each of its last three games.
02-26-21	Bowling Green +4 v. Akron		83-71	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
Akron is not trustworthy. The Zips just lost by 17 points to shorthanded Ohio in their last game. The Bobcats hadn't played in 21 days prior to that game because of COVID-19 protocols. Bowling Green can score with any MAC team averaging 78.4 points, which places the Falcons in the top 40 in the country for scoring. The Falcons also have stepped up defensively in their last two games.
02-25-21	Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5	Top	67-59	Loss	-107	19 h 56 m	Show
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row. Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence. Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed. Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode.
02-25-21	Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Sacred Heart		82-69	Win	100	14 h 15 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson averages a respectable 75.2 points per game and is the 23rd-best 3-point shooting team in the country. Sacred Heart has permitted 76 or more points in three of its last four games. The Pioneers average four points fewer per game than Fairleigh Dickinson and are a below average defensive team. They lost much of their scoring from last season and have not replaced that depth. Only two Sacred Heart players average more than eight points per game. Elyjah Williams gives Fairleigh Dickinson the best big man on the court.
02-24-21	Xavier v. Providence +1.5		68-83	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
Let's face it, Providence isn't going to make the NCAA Tournament unless it happens to win the Big East Tournament. That's certainly not likely to happen. But if the Friars have one game they want to win and play spoiler, it's this matchup against Xavier. This is Providence's Super Bowl home game. The Friars have had this rematch circled ever since Colby Jones drained a 3-point shot with one second left to give the Musketeers a 74-73 home win against Providence on Jan. 10. The Musketeers scored the final eight points to pull off the victory. Now this is Providence's revenge spot. The Friars have defeated Xavier six of the last eight times at home. Xavier has been inconsistent since returning from a COVID-19 hiatus This is just the Musketeers' fourth game this month. Providence has been playing stronger defense. If you discount the Friars' 92-81 loss to St. John's, they've allowed 61.8 points in regulation during their last six games.
02-24-21	McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana	Top	96-91	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys.
02-23-21	Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State	Top	57-62	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here. Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead. The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests.
02-23-21	Akron +2.5 v. Ohio		73-90	Loss	-110	11 h 24 m	Show
The Zips give up nearly four points fewer per game than Ohio. Akron destroyed the Bobcats, 90-70, when they met Dec. 22. It was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings Akron has beaten Ohio. That was two months ago. But circumstances are even more in favor of Akron now. The Zips are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They trail Toledo by just one-half game for first place in the Mid-American Conference. Ohio last played three weeks ago. The Bobcats have been set back by a COVID-19 outbreak. This has cost them practice time not to mention important game experience. I don't see them being anywhere in peak form in their first game back. Ohio coach Jeff Boals even said this himself. The Zips have won five of their last six road games. The lone defeat during this span occurred to league-leader Toledo.
02-22-21	Eastern Kentucky -4 v. SE Missouri State		87-65	Win	100	10 h 21 m	Show
I want Eastern Kentucky in this rapid revenge spot and the line is reasonable enough to get involved. Eastern Kentucky went into this past Saturday's game against Southeast Missouri State 18-6 and riding a three-game win and covering streak while averaging 88.3 points during this span. The Redhawks entered the matchup 9-14 and 5 1/2-point underdogs. Final score: Southeast Missouri State 94, Eastern Kentucky 72. Huh? The Redhawks were on fire hitting 14 of 25 3-point shots, way above their 35 percent season average. The Redhawks average fewer than 69 points per game on the season. They are below average defensively and commit a lot of turnovers. Eastern Kentucky had an off-game. The Colonels were outshot 58.3 percent to 36.2 percent from the floor. The Colonels are the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation at 82.5. I see them bouncing back in a big way here. Southeast Missouri State is 7-19-1 ATS the past 27 times following a spread cover. Eastern Kentucky has covered 16 of its last 22 road games.
02-21-21	South Florida v. Temple +1		83-76	Loss	-109	9 h 19 m	Show
Since returning from a month-long COVID-19 hiatus, South Florida has gone 0-3 SU and ATS losing to Central Florida, Houston and Tulane by a combined 36 points. This is just the Bulls' fourth game since Jan. 9. They have averaged just 63 points in their last three games. The Bulls have failed to reach 70 points in each of their last seven games. They are a bottom-20 free throw shooting team. Temple gives up fewer than 70 points a game. This is the Owls' first home game since Feb. 4. I think they're a bargain in this price range.
02-20-21	Illinois v. Minnesota +5.5		94-63	Loss	-109	8 h 60 m	Show
No major conference team is more different at home compared to the road than Minnesota. The difference is insane. The Gophers are 0-8 away and 13-1 at home. Minnesota's average home victory is by around 13 points. Among the teams the Gophers have knocked off at home are Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Gophers have covered eight of their last nine games in Minnesota. This also is a circle-the-wagons game for the Gophers, who probably can't afford a loss here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota also has revenge for a 92-65 road loss to Illinois. The Illini haven't been nearly as effective on the road. They've lost to Rutgers and needed overtime to post victories against Indiana and Nebraska, two games ago where they were 14-point favorites.
02-20-21	Mt. St. Mary's v. Fairleigh Dickinson -1		71-76	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson has too much speed, quickness and backcourt edge for Mount St. Mary's. Fairleight Dickinson averages nearly 15 points more per game than Mount St. Mary's. The Knights can dent a strong Mount St. Mary's defense with excellent 3-point shooting. The Knights rank 19th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.8 percent. Mount St. Mary's has been held under 68 points in eight of its last nine games.
02-20-21	New Hampshire +4 v. UMass Lowell		69-67	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering five of the last six times. I see that trend continuing here. New Hampshire gives up five fewer points per game than Lowell. The River Hawks have given up an average of 75.3 points in their last three games and are 8-18-1 ATS in their past 27 home games.
02-20-21	Loyola Maryland v. Lehigh +4.5		75-47	Loss	-110	8 h 5 m	Show
Lehigh hasn't played since Jan. 31. The Mountain Hawks are being penalized too severely on the line because of that. They would be above .500 if their six games against Bucknell and Navy were thrown out. Bucknell and Navy are a combined 15-6. Lehigh isn't in that class. But neither is Loyola Maryland. These are a pair of lower-tier Patriot League teams. Loyola Maryland is 2-7 on the season. The Greyhounds rank 287th defensively and 324th in 3-point defense. They have failed to cover their past four road games. The Greyhounds can't win close games either going 0-6 in games decided by four or fewer points.
02-19-21	California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon	Top	61-71	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game. Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State. Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor.
02-19-21	Southern Miss v. Florida International -2.5		85-72	Loss	-110	13 h 35 m	Show
Florida International isn't good. But at this price range, the Panthers are worth backing. Southern Mississippi has lost eight straight games going 1-6-1 ATS in those contests. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 62 points during this losing streak. Florida International has scored more than 62 points in 19 of its 23 games. The Panthers have the best player on the court in Antonio Daye Jr. He gives the Panthers a huge backcourt advantage in this matchup.
02-19-21	IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5		72-70	Loss	-113	12 h 14 m	Show
I consider this line short. Youngstown State is on a season-best five-game win streak. The Penguins are showing defensive improvement holding their last four opponents to 70 points or fewer. They are tough at home, too, going 8-3-1 ATS during their last 12 home contests. Youngstown State averages three points more per game than IUPUI and plays much better defense. The Jaguars rank 288th in scoring defense allowing 75.5 points a game. They are 327th in defensive field goal percentage. The Jaguars have failed to cover five of the last six times they've gone against an above .500 opponent.
02-18-21	Iowa v. Wisconsin	Top	77-62	Loss	-108	14 h 60 m	Show
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times. Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss.
02-17-21	Iona v. Quinnipiac +6.5		70-74	Win	100	12 h 41 m	Show
COVID-19 has been a definite handicapping factor this college basketball season. It certainly factors in this matchup and is a major reason why I like home 'dog Quinnipiac. Iona just returned from a COVID layoff of close to two months playing two home games against Manhattan this past Friday and Saturday. The Gaels were favored in both of those matchups and ended up splitting the two games. It was their first action since Dec. 23. No other school had gone longer between games this season. Now Iona plays a road game for the first time since Dec. 19. I don't think all of the rust is off yet, not to mention so many missed practices. This will be Quinnipiac's fifth game in 11 days. The Bobcats are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Quinnipiac is ranked 172nd defensively in the KenPom adjusted defensive rankings. The Bobcats have the seventh-best defensive field goal percentage in the nation. Iona is ranked 247th in the KenPom adjusted defensive ratings. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times in the series. So I'll take the points with the better defensive team in the better situation.
02-16-21	Wagner +4.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's		61-39	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
I'm going to ride Wagner, which has won and covered its last five games. Mount St. Mary's is the stronger defensive team. But the Mountaineers don't have enough offense to cover this number. They rank 329th in the country in scoring at 63.5 points. The Mountaineers have been held under 68 points in six of their last seven games. Wagner has produced at least 74 points in eight of its past nine games.
02-15-21	Eastern Kentucky -8.5 v. Tennessee Tech		83-72	Win	100	12 h 54 m	Show
Eastern Kentucky defeated hapless Tennessee Tech, 90-80, last month despite not playing well. The Colonels were outshot from the field by Tennessee Tech and made just 4 of 7 free throws. Tennessee Tech was 9 of 12 from the foul line. The Colonels are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. That's 18 points more per game than the Golden Eagles average. Eastern Kentucky is 16-5. Tennessee Tech is 3-19. The Golden Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times facing an above .500 foe. Eastern Kentucky has covered 14 of its last 19 road contests and is 13-5-2 ATS the past 20 times going against foes with a losing record.
02-15-21	Stephen F Austin -9.5 v. New Orleans		89-79	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
Stephen F. Austin is 12-3. New Orleans is 4-12. So that accounts for the Lumberjacks being a strong road favorite. It just doesn't account enough in my view. The Lumberjacks have won nine of their last 10 games, scoring 78 or more points in all but one of those games. New Orleans surrenders 76 points a game. The Privateers have been at their worst lately giving up an average of 82 points in their past three games, all losses. The Privateers are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times facing an opponent with a winning record.
02-13-21	UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe	Top	88-72	Win	100	14 h 38 m	Show
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points.
02-12-21	Bellarmine v. North Alabama +6		66-64	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
This is an important Atlantic Sun Conference game especially for North Alabama. If the Lions can pull the outright upset they would trail Bellarmine by just one game in the loss column for the conference lead. North Alabama only has been this big of a 'dog once this season and that was back in December against Indiana. Bellarmine has failed to cover in seven of the past eight instances when meeting an above .500 opponent.
02-12-21	Wisc-Milwaukee +17.5 v. Wright State		81-92	Win	100	8 h 24 m	Show
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off a pair of home upset losses to hot Northern Kentucky, which has now won six in a row. That probably has contributed to this line being over inflated in my view. UWM was 2-1 in its three previous games, including a road upset overtime win against Cleveland State, the Horizon League leader. If the Panthers can upset Cleveland State they should be able to keep within single digits of Wright State. It was a four-point game when the teams last met on Jan. 31, 2020 with Wright State prevailing, 65-61.
02-12-21	Middle Tennessee +17 v. Marshall		79-107	Loss	-110	7 h 23 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for 5-11 Middle Tennessee State. But the Blue Raiders should not be this large of an underdog. Middle Tennessee State lacks Marshall's firepower, but gives up five fewer points per game than the Thundering Herd. The Blue Raiders have been particularly strong in defending 3-point shots ranking 12th in the nation. The Blue Raiders enter this matchup with a little momentum and confidence, too, coming off consecutive victories against Charlotte. This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cover the past four times.
02-11-21	Texas State v. Texas-Arlington +1.5		63-56	Loss	-109	15 h 37 m	Show
Texas-Arlington opened a slight underdog. The 'dog has covered each of the last seven times in this series. But Arlington shouldn't be a home 'dog. The Mavericks would be riding a five-game win streak if not for an overtime loss to Arkansas State. The Mavericks average eight more points per game than Texas State and give up fewer than 70 points per game. The Bobcats average only 66.8 points on the season. They have averaged just 63 points in regulation during their last four games.
02-11-21	Eastern Washington -2.5 v. Montana State		93-77	Win	100	15 h 36 m	Show
I'm perplexed how short this line is because I rate Eastern Washington much higher than Montana State. The Eagles are on a five-game win streak and have covered 11 of their last 15 away games. Montana State is off a pair of road losses to Weber State in games that weren't close. The Bobcats are 1-5 ATS the past six times when going against an above .500 opponent.
02-11-21	Weber State v. Montana +1		67-80	Win	100	15 h 35 m	Show
Montana is 7-5 in its last 12 games. But the Grizzlies' record is deceiving. They have lost a number of close games, including a six-point road loss to Arizona. The Grizzlies have a strong defense ranking 38th in the nation giving up 63.6 points per game. They also rate 25th in 3-point defense. That's a huge factor because Weber State is a strong perimeter shooting team. The Wildcats surrender six more points per game than Montana. This is not a good matchup for Weber State.
02-11-21	Long Island +4 v. Mt. St. Mary's		60-66	Loss	-110	13 h 17 m	Show
This is only the second time all season Long Island is an underdog. The Shark beat Wagner, 77-66, as 1-point road 'dogs on Jan. 14. I don't think they should be an underdog in this game to Mount St. Mary's. Mount St. Mary's is 5-5 in its last 10 games, losing two of its last three games while favored against Sacred Heart and Central Connecticut State.
02-11-21	Winthrop -3.5 v. Radford		80-64	Win	100	13 h 35 m	Show
There's a huge class difference here that's not fully incorporated into the line. Winthrop had opened with 16 consecutive victories until losing, 57-55, as 12 1/2-point home favorites against UNC-Asheville in its last game. That was two weeks ago. The Eagles haven't played since. So they are more than ready to put that disturbing upset loss behind them. The Eagles are the class of the Big South Conference. Radford is a surprising 13-7, in second-place behind Winthrop in the league standings despite losing all of its top scorers from last season. None of Radford's players average double figures in scoring. Winthrop ranks 22nd in the nation in scoring at 81.3 points and has the conference's likely MVP in Chandler Vaudrin. Winthrop has proven itself in this type of situation going 13-4 ATS versus above .500 opponents and covering 17 of its past 24 road contests.
02-10-21	Old Dominion v. Charlotte -1.5		78-76	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
I see good value in backing UNC Charlotte at home against Old Dominion even if the Monarchs get back guards Malik Curry and A.J. Oliver as expected. Curry is the Monarchs' leading scorer at 16.5 points. Charlotte has too much defense for Old Dominion and the Monarchs don't have enough offense to counter. The Monarchs rank 313th in the nation in scoring. They also are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests. The 49ers hold foes to 64.3 points a game, which ranks 47th. It's also six points fewer per game than Old Dominion gives up. Charlotte has won its last three home games, but is coming off a pair of road losses to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS following a straight-up defeat.
02-09-21	Kent State v. Bowling Green		71-67	Loss	-110	6 h 39 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for Bowling Green, who some thought would win the MAC title this season. I see the Falcons prevailing, though, in this quick revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode. Kent State defeated the Falcons, 96-91, at home on Jan. 27. The Golden Flashes shot 49 percent from the floor and made 17 of 21 free throws for 81 percent. Bowling Green shot 46 percent from the field and made 11 of 15 free throws. The Falcons have a strong senior group led by Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden. It's not too much to ask of the Falcons to just win the game.
02-08-21	Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5	Top	61-79	Win	100	16 h 26 m	Show
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska.
02-06-21	Northwestern v. Purdue -7		70-75	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
Purdue should be a double-digit favorite at home against Northwestern, which has lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in those games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the past seven times facing an above .500 foe. The Boilermakers are anxious to put a 61-60 rough loss to Maryland on Tuesday behind them. They hold a big edge inside with Trevion Williams and are expected to get back their second-leading scorer, Sasha Stefanovic. He has missed the last three games due to COVID-19 protocols. He's one of the top 3-point shooters in the Big Ten.
02-06-21	Evansville +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago		55-68	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game. Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games.
02-06-21	NC State -3.5 v. Boston College		81-65	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
North Carolina State is the superior team. The Wolfpack are 7-7 and 3-6 in the ACC while Boston College is 3-10 and 1-6 in the ACC. The point spread with NC State a road favorite accounts for that. But what it doesn't fully account for is Boston College's situation. The Eagles haven't played in three weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Not only are they rusty, but their rotation could be unsettled. Walk-ons could draw important minutes. NC State has kept playing. The Wolfpack gave 14th-ranked Virginia a scare in their last game before losing, 64-47, this past Wednesday.
02-05-21	California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State	Top	85-75	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
02-05-21	Oral Roberts +5 v. North Dakota State		54-61	Loss	-109	16 h 10 m	Show
There are four decent teams in the Summit League. These are two of them. North Dakota State is 10-8. Oral Roberts is 9-7. Oral Roberts averages 81.5 points, which ranks 24th in the nation. The Golden Eagles average 14 more points per game than North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles also have covered six of their last eight road games. They are 4-0 during their past four away contests averaging 90 points in those games. That's too much firepower for North Dakota State.
02-04-21	Eastern Washington -15 v. Idaho		89-75	Loss	-107	17 h 32 m	Show
Eastern Washington is among the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho isn't just the worst team in the Big Sky, but one of the worst in all of college basketball with an 0-13 record. The Eagles should have no problem exploiting a porous Idaho defense that ranks 314th. The Vandals have failed to cover in their last five games. They've lost those games by an average of 18.8 points.
02-04-21	Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5	Top	74-72	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points.
02-04-21	Belmont v. Eastern Illinois +14		89-61	Loss	-110	16 h 6 m	Show
Belmont definitely is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference this season. But don't be shocked if Eastern Illinois stays within single digits. The teams met on Jan. 21 and Belmont won, 79-66, as 11 1/2-point home favorites. It was just a two-point game at halftime. Now the Bruins are larger favorites on the road. I don't see it. Eastern Illinois has some confidence after halting an eight-game losing streak with an upset road victory against SIU Edwardsville this past Tuesday. Belmont barely escaped Murray State this past Saturday, winning 72-71.
02-04-21	USC Upstate +9.5 v. Radford		61-63	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
I don't think Radford is justified being this high of a favorite. South Carolina Upstate has improved since an 0-9 start going 3-2 in its past five games. Radford averages less than two more points per game than South Carolina Upstate. Both teams are off long layoffs. South Carolina Upstate hasn't played since Jan. 15, while Radford was last in action on Jan. 25. So that puts some randomness into this matchup, which is good for the underdog.
02-04-21	Wagner v. St Francis NY -2		74-67	Loss	-112	15 h 31 m	Show
It doesn't matter if it's a major conference, or the Northeast Conference. When a line is off it's off. I believe the line in this Northeast Conference matchup is wrong. St. Francis-Brooklyn should be favored by much more. Wagner is 2-5. The Seahawks haven't played since Jan. 15 because of COVID-19 protocols. They have failed to cover in 21 of their last 27 road games, including going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home this season. St. Francis-Brooklyn averages 76.8 points. The Terriers outscore Wagner by nearly eight points a game. St. Francis is 4-4 on the season. The Terriers are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times hosting foes with a losing road record. The Terriers are not strong defensively. But they are too explosive for Wagner and are playing at home against a bad road team. Wagner is led in scoring by Elijah Ford, who averages 20.8 points. Ford, though, hasn't played since Dec. 22 due to a hand injury. If he returns to the lineup, he figures to be rusty.
02-03-21	SMU v. Tulsa +2.5		65-63	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
These teams are close to even. Tulsa has the better American Athletic Conference record, gives up three fewer points per game than SMU and is home. So I'm not buying SMU as road chalk. The Mustangs are off a demoralizing 70-48 road loss to Houston this past Sunday. SMU is 2-8-1 in its last 11 road contests and 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall games. Tulsa is deserving of more respect. The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in the country defensively. They have pulled a number of conference upsets, including beating Houston and Memphis twice.
02-03-21	Fordham v. Massachusetts -13	Top	54-60	Loss	-105	15 h 13 m	Show
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell. The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times. So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points.
02-02-21	USC -2 v. Stanford	Top	72-66	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders. Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season. A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups.
02-02-21	Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss		50-52	Loss	-110	16 h 24 m	Show
The buy sign is back on Tennessee after the Volunteers rolled past then 18th-ranked Kansas, 80-61, as 3-point favorites this past Saturday. A key takeaway from that game was not only restored Tennessee confidence - the Vols were 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in their three previous games - but that the Vols outrebounded the Jayhawks, 38-23, while giving up zero second-chance points. Mississippi doesn't shoot well. The Rebels rely on rebounding and second-chance points. That's going to prove difficult against the Volunteers, who have the sixth-stingiest defense in the nation giving up fewer than 60 points per game. Ole Miss isn't playing well. The Rebels have dropped two in a row, including a 71-61 road loss to Georgia this past Saturday. The Rebels have made just 25.9 percent of their 3-point shots in SEC play while conference foes have made 37.4 percent while shooting 25 more 3-pointers.
02-02-21	Buffalo v. Ball State +4.5		78-58	Loss	-107	11 h 33 m	Show
These teams are similar. Buffalo is 6-6. Ball State is 6-8. Buffalo has the better offense. Ball State is stronger defensively. The teams met back on Jan. 9 and Buffalo defeated the Cardinals, 86-59, as 5-point home favorites. Now the Bulls are nearly that high of a favorite on the road. I'm not buying it. Not only does Ball State have revenge motivation, but also is coming off its worst loss of the season, an embarrassing, 74-42, loss to Akron from Saturday. The Bulls haven't been playing well either losing three of their last four. Ball State has covered 11 of its last 15 home contests. The Cardinals also are 10-1 ATS when hosting a foe with a losing road record, which Buffalo has.
01-31-21	Bradley +1 v. Indiana State		57-60	Loss	-112	7 h 29 m	Show
Bradley is in stop-the-pain mode on a four-game losing streak after losing to Valparaiso, 91-85 in overtime, on the road Friday. The Braves and Indiana State are middle-of-the-pack teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley, though, matches up well to the Sycamores. Opponents have made 55 percent of their field goals from two-point range against Indiana State. The Braves have a go-to inside scorer in big man Elijah Childs. By contrast, Bradley has one of the better two-point defenses in the country and Indiana State gets most of its points from inside the arc.
01-31-21	Illinois State +19 v. Drake		76-78	Win	100	6 h 12 m	Show
I'm not sure what is more impressive about Drake. Is it the Bulldogs being 15-0, or having covered each of their 13 lined games? None of this is lost on the oddsmaker. They are starting to make bettors lay a tax on the Bulldogs if they want to back them. At least that's the way I see it because this line is several points too high in my view. Illinois State should be up for this matchup. The Redbirds were taken out of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March by Drake, losing 75-65. The Redbirds are just 5-10 this season, 2-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have the motivation and scoring to cover this inflated spread. Drake averages 82.5 points a game, which is 18th-best in the nation. Illinois State, though, puts up 74.3 points a game.
01-30-21	Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5		62-81	Win	100	13 h 40 m	Show
Minnesota can't win on the road in the Big Ten. The Gophers haven't just lost all four of their conference away games, but they've lost by wide margins. They lost by 27 points at Illinois, by 12 at Wisconsin, by 25 at Michigan and by 15 at Iowa. Purdue is 51-9 in its last 60 Big Ten home contests. The Boilermakers, though, are coming off a rare home defeat. That was to Michigan eight days ago in their last game. Not playing for more than a week has allowed the Boilermakers to regroup and adjust to the COVID-19 absence of Sasha Stefanovic, the top 3-point shooter in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are freshmen-oriented, but they are past the inexperience stage now. Zach Edey, Mason Gillis, Brandon Newman, Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton - all freshmen - are combining to produce nearly 40 percent of Purdue's scoring.
01-30-21	McNeese State +5 v. Lamar		56-64	Loss	-110	11 h 35 m	Show
The points are a bonus as I believe McNeese is the superior team. Certainly the Cowboys have the better overall record being 7-9 while Lamar is 3-11. There is no doubt who has the better offense. It's not Lamar. The Cardinals average 63.6 points per game, which ranks 320th. McNeese State is the eighth-highest scoring team in the nation at 84.9 points a game. Lamar surrenders 76.9 points per contest. The Cardinals are 0-10 when they permit 66 or more points. McNeese State should have no trouble exceeding that number.
01-30-21	Toledo v. Bowling Green +4		84-66	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
Bowling Green is back home in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Toledo is playing extremely well with wins in 11 of its last 12 games. But the Falcons play the Rockets tough. They've beaten them the past two times. The Falcons have the best player on the court in Justin Turner. He averages 20.5 points a game. Few teams average more points per game than Toledo. The Rockets put up 80.4 points. Bowling Green matches that also scoring 80.4 points and the Falcons give up an average of nearly five fewer points per game than the Rockets.
01-30-21	SIU-Edwardsville v. Tenn-Martin +4		76-60	Loss	-109	10 h 6 m	Show
When it comes to smaller conferences such as the Ohio Valley, the oddsmaker makes his line strictly by season power rankings. That sets up opportunities like this because Tennessee-Martin is showing life at home after losing nine straight games. The Skyhawks are 2-0 so far in their six-game homestand. Tennessee-Martin defeated Southeast Missouri State, 69-66, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs and then followed that up with an impressive, 51-41, victory against Eastern Illinois as 8-point home 'dogs this past Thursday. The Skyhawks had never held a foe to that low of a total before. SIU Edwardsville had a 34-day layoff due to COVID-19 issues. This is just the Cougars' fifth game since Dec. 18. They may not be fully mentally ready after suffering a heartbreaking, 64-62, loss to Southeast Missouri State this past Thursday. The Cougars blew a 13-point second half lead. The only time they trailed in the game was the final score. The Skyhawks have won eight of their last 10 against the Cougars.
01-30-21	Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois +2.5		74-62	Loss	-110	9 h 10 m	Show
Southern Illinois is in a tailspin having lost five in a row. But the Salukis should defeat fellow Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Northern Iowa at home. Note that the Salukis' last four losses have come to Drake and Indiana State. Drake is 15-0 and Indiana State is the fourth-best team in the MVC. Northern Iowa is far from that class. The Panthers are 4-10 on the season. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games and are 0-6 ATS during their past six away matchups. Southern Illinois has covered 13 of their last 18 home games. The Salukis outscore Northern Iowa on the season and also give up fewer points per game.
01-29-21	CS-Fullerton +10.5 v. CS Bakersfield		90-84	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
I see Fullerton having enough offense to hang with Bakersfield in this Big West Conference matchup. The Titans are averaging 75.4 points per game, which is five points more than Bakersfield averages. The Roadrunners have been a good fade in this type of situation. They are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games and 2-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 foes.
01-29-21	Iowa +2 v. Illinois		75-80	Loss	-109	16 h 33 m	Show
Iowa is the better team in my view and Illinois' home-court advantage doesn't make up for that. The Hawkeyes may have the best big man in the country, too, in 6-foot-11 Luka Garza. He's leading the Big Ten in scoring at 26.9 points while connecting on 61 percent of his shots from the floor. Illinois has an excellent big man, Kofi Cockburn. But Garza trumps him. The Hawkeyes enter this matchup well-rested and highly motivated having not played for eight days since an 81-69 home loss to Indiana. Iowa was a 10-point favorite in that game. Even with that defeat, the Hawkeyes still have covered 15 of their last 21 games.
01-29-21	Monmouth -3.5 v. Niagara		77-67	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Monmouth is on a 7-2-1 ATS run. The Hawks have won and covered their last four games. Power rating-wise, this game opened too short in my view. The Hawks have given up 64 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Niagara hasn't been playing as well losing three of its last four games while failing to cover in three of its past four games. Monmouth has a far stronger offense, outscoring Niagara by an average of 16 points per game. So I'm going to go ahead and lay what I believe is a value number.
01-28-21	California v. Arizona State -7.5		68-72	Loss	-110	18 h 26 m	Show
I'm seeing a buy sign on Arizona State in this spot as the Sun Devils hopefully are past their COVID-19 issues that have pushed their season off track. Back in early December, the Sun Devils traveled to Berkley, Calif., and defeated California, 70-62, as 6 1/2-point favorites. ASU's star guard Remy Martin scored 22 points in that game. Since that matchup, however, the Sun Devils had four postponements and one cancellation due to the pandemic. They are just rounding into shape. Arizona State threw a scare into 12-3 Arizona last Thursday losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer. This is a massive circle-the-wagons game for the Sun Devils, who have dropped six in a row. California has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 road contests. I see this as the spot where Arizona State gets right.

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