These two teams met just 10 days ago and Pepperdine knocked off BYU, 80-74.



Revenge means something, but this line is too out of whack especially since the Cougars might be without star freshman forward Eric Mika, who is averaging 16 points and six boards per game. He suffered a hip bruise in BYU's last game, an 87-53 win against San Diego.



BYU has failed to cover 22 of the last 29 times when winning its previous game by more than 20 points. Pepperdine is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.



The Wave can take advantage of Mika's possible absence with big men Stacy Davis and Brendan Lane.

This is a funny situational spot for Minnesota. The Gophers haven't played in 10 days and won't play for another week after this game. So some rust is expected. Motivation could lack, too.



Nebraska-Omaha shouldn't lack for motivation having four players on its team from Minnesota, which is three more than the Gophers have.



The Mavericks have proven pesky in winning five in a row while covering in five of their last six non-conference games. The Mavericks upset Nevada six days ago. They lost to UNLV by 3, Iowa by 8 and Drake by 8. All of those games were on the road.



The Mavericks can score points in bunches. They average 84.5 points a game, which is 22nd best in the country.

Maryland is off to a slow start, but the Terrapins catch Boston College at a good time in their ACC opener. The Eagles' confidence is down following back-to-back losses to Purdue and USC by a combined 37 points.



The Eagles have yet to get things together as the team still is in an adjustment period.



Maryland's key is getting more consistent point guard production. That should start to come now with the elevation of talented freshman Roddy Peters to starting point guard. Peters leads the team in assists despite coming off the bench in all but two games.



Maryland has covered seven of its last nine road games for 78 percent.

I'll take this many points with Memphis in this early season showdown against Oklahoma State.


The Tigers have three tremendous senior guards. They very well could have the best backcourt in the nation. The key question for Memphis is being able to rebound.


The Tigers showed they could in their season-opening win out-rebounding Austin Peay, 50-27, in a 95-69 opening win. Memphis has excellent recruits again with Austin Nichols and Nick King.


Oklahoma State has failed to cover 13 of the last 16 times when meeting a foe with a winning record.


The Cowboys are 3-0, but their wins were against two Southwestern Athletic Conference opponents and Utah Valley State. Now they step way up in class.


There is a certain unknown factor with these two powerhouses meeting so early, but any kind of random factor is good for the underdog, especially in this price range.


The Tigers have joined the tough American Athletic Conference. They are looking at this matchup as a big test to see if they can maintain their poise on the road. They certainly have the guards to accomplish that.

Both teams are 2-0 but the spot favors Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won 16 in a row at Bud Walton Arena. Their last home loss came against powerful Syracuse. Arkansas has won 36 straight at home against unranked non-conference opponents.



The Razorbacks have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. They have won by 11 or more points in their last four home games. SMU is coming off a satisfying revenge win against Rhode Island in its first home game back at renovated Moody Coliseum. The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing an opponent with a winning mark.



Larry Brown is trying to upgrade the Mustangs' talent level as they make the switch from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. The Mustangs are in transition at this very early point of the season and must deal with a tough road venue and Arkansas coach Mike Anderson's "40 Minutes of Hell" system that relies on heavy full-court pressure.

Texas Tech is playing just its second game under new coach Tubby Smith, who faces a huge challenge with the Red Raiders.


Northern Arizona has a tall and talented frontcourt that can hang with Texas Tech. The Lumberjacks' backcourt is shored up with the addition of junior college transfer Quinton Upshur. Northern Arizona opened with a 74-63 road victory against Texas-San Antonio.


This will be a tougher challenge, but the Lumberjacks are strong enough to keep this under double-digits. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS the past 22 times when playing a non-conference opponent.

The early money has been on Michigan. But Syracuse is the right side. The Orangemen have experience and the defensive edge to beat the Wolverines. No team during the post-season has played better defense than Syracuse The Orange have held their last five opponents to 32 percent shooting from the floor.


Syracuse has covered in nine of its last 12 non-conference matchups.


I don't see Michigan being able to solve Jim Boeheim's vaunted matchup zone either. Trey Burke and the rest of the Wolverines have not faced such tall guards with huge wingspans such as Michael Carter-Williams. The Wolverines are also going to have problems trying to score inside.


Michigan lacks Syracuse's experience, depth and savvy. The Wolverines use five freshmen as part of their nine-man rotation. Michigan coach John Beilein has some idea of what's in store for his team having spent five years as a coach in the Big East with West Virginia. Let it be noted, though, that Beilein is 0-9 lifetime against Syracuse.

The top-ranked, top-seeded Baylor women were upset in the NCAA Tournament. The Baylor men aren't going to let the same fate happen to them.


Baylor meets BYU in an NIT semifinal game at Madison Square Garden. Baylor and BYU met once already during the season and Baylor won, 79-64, at home.


The Bears won because they are the superior team. Baylor has the stronger offense and bench. The Bears are averaging 93.3 points in their three NIT games. BYU is a high-scoring team, too, but can't match that. The Cougars are averaging 86.3 points per game in the tournament.


Depth plays a crucial role now this late in the long season. Baylor has it. The Bears' bench has outscored their opponents' reserves, 73-42, and won the battle of the boards by a 45-19 margin.


Baylor is strong inside with Cory Jefferson and 7-foot-1 Isaiah Austin, who ranked third in the Big 12 in rebounding. The Bears also have that important leadership and skill level at point guard with senior Pierre Jackson. He led the Big 12 in scoring and assists. Jackson also set an assists record with 16 during the Bears' second-round victory against Arizona State.


BYU just isn't in Baylor's class. The Cougars have failed to cover the past four times when playing on a neutral floor.

Syracuse has a big edge when playing an opponent not familiar in dealing with the Orangemen's vaunted 2-3 zone. The Orange have exploited that so far in the NCAA Tournament.



But now Syracuse comes up against a familiar foe - Marquette. The Golden Eagles have covered in their last five meeting with Syracuse because they know how to attack the 2-3 zone. The Golden Eagles have the combination of inside power and speed to slice through Syracuse's zone or to pound inside if necessary. When the teams last met in February, Marquette won straight-up.



Unlike other tournament survivors, the Golden Eagles are playing with a huge chip on their shoulder feeling disrespected. Marquette got its bad games out of the way. I see the Golden Eagles continuing to peak.

The buck stop here for indiana. Syracuse can match the Hoosiers in toughness, has athletes and is playing in Big East terriotry - Verizon Center. The Orangemen have covered eight of their last 11 nonleague games.

Temple threw a scare into Indiana. Now the Hoosiers have a real matchup problem. The spread is high here especially considering that the talent level is even. Syracuse probably is going to have three players drafted by NBA teams in Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland and Brandon Triche. The Hooisers don't have a guard tall enough to handle Carter-Williams.

Syracuse' two greatest strengths are defensive rebounding and committng turnovers. Indiana is vulnerable in both of these areas when playing top-level competition. I see the Hooisers, who prefer a fast tempo, struggling against the Orangemen's slow half-court style.

The Orange ranked third nationally in field goal percentage defense and sixth defending three-pointers. I don't see the Hoosiers getting a lot of good looks against Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone that held Montana to 20.4 perccent from the field and California to 39 percent from the floor during the first two games of the tournament. Montana and Cal shot a combined 4-for-45 from 3-point range.

Look for Florida Gulf Coast to come back down to reality after pulling off the tournament shocker, upsetting No. 2 Georgetown, 78-68.


Pulling an upset of that proportion is just too munch for young college kids to handle in such a short turnaround. Who says? History. Recall last year when Norfolk State, also a 15th-seed, took out Missouri in the first round. In the next round, Norfolk State fell to Florida by 34 points.


There are examples such as 15th-seed Lehigh stunning Duke last year in the opening round and then losing by double-digits to Xavier. The mindset is celebration and enjoying the moment. That's all fine and exhilarating, but the truth is these teams have matchup issues and extreme high odds of producing a second "A" game in such a pressure situation when not in the proper frame of mind.


Florida Gulf Coast would be bucking more history, too, since a 15th-seed has never reached the regional semifinals.


San Diego State coach Steve Fisher and his Aztecs are tournament tested looking to reach the Sweet 16 for the second time in three seasons. Fisher actually knows Florida Gulf Coast well since he has property close by in Fort Myers Beach.


Despite UNLV, New Mexico and Boise all exiting from the tournament, the Mountain West Conference was one of the strongest leagues in the country this past season. San Diego State has played much higher quality opponents in very tough settings. The Aztecs were impressive in beating Oklahoma in the first round. Future NBA player Jamaal Franklin had another outstanding game.

OK, Kansas got its flat game out of the way in the tournament opener. The Jayhawks have covered 10 of their last 12 and will be fired-up for Roy Williams, facing his former team and historic rival, North Carolina. Playing in Kansas City, which is just around 40 miles from their campus, is a huge plus, too, for the Jayhawks.

The two teams met last year in the tournament and Kansas won 80-67. The Jayhawks return every one of significance from that matchup except Thomas Robinson. The Tar Heels, however, won't have Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller. Those three - all in the NBA right now - were in North Carolina's lineup and the Tar Heels still lost by 13 points.

The Jayhawks have a huge height advantage now. The Tarheels are going to need to hit their 3's to stay in the game while Kansas can dominate in the paint. It should be noted that the Tar Heels have not fared well when facing the elite teams in their ACC going a combined 0-5 straightup and 1-4 ATS versus Duke and Miami.

Michigan has been excellent all season at not turning the ball over. But playing in the rugged, slow Big Ten doesn't give them the chance to go against a helter-skelter, pressing foe such as VCU.


The Wolverines have not seen this type of full-court pressure all season. Given the short turnaround, too, between their last game and this one, I see the Wolverines having problems here. VCU, on the other hand, had a rest stop against Akron.


The Rams led the nation in forcing turnovers. They are at their best, too, in the NCAA Tournament where they have covered a phenomenal 12 of 13 times. Two years ago, the Rams reached the Final Four as an 11th-seed.


Michigan peaked too soon. The Wolverines are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover seven of the last nine times when taking on an opponent with a winning record.

This is a bad matchup for Villanova. The Wildcats are a young, inconsistent team anyways, but they are at their worst against up-tempo, accurate 3-point shooting teams such as North Carolina.

North Carolina averages more than 77 points a game and has a number of excellent 3-point shooters. Villanova's has a weak perimeter defense. The Wildcats have given up 10 or more 3-pointers nine times. They rank 294th in defending against 3-pointers. North Carolina averages nearly eight 3-pointers a game.

Villanova is 5-12 ATS the past 17 times when playing on a neutral site. The Wildcats haven't fared well recently in NCAA Tournament action either failing to cover in their last four appearances.

Pacific is a well-coached, smart, veteran, pesky team that can hang around Miami if the Hurricanes don't produce their "A" game.

I see the Hurricanes producing less than a stellar effort here. Miami is basking in the glow of not only capturing the ACC regular-season title, but also winning the conference tournament. That's a tremendous achievement. I think the Hurricanes will be sharper in their next game, not this one.

Pacific is playing hard for retiring long-time coach Bob Thomason. Last year, two No. 15 seeds pulled upsets in the NCAA Tournament. So there is precedent for this type of upset.

The Tigers have won their past seven games. They have momentum winning the Big West Conference Tournament. The Tigers don't have much height, but they're experienced and get good ball movement. They have seven seniors, including three who start.

Colorado State wins on the road. Missouri doesn't. Missouri's calling card is its rebounding. But the Tigers won't have an edge because Colorado averages just one less rebound per game than Missouri as both teams rank among the four best in the country. Colorado State has an excellent big man, Colton Iverson, who averages nearly 10 rebounds a game and shoots 60 percent from the floor.


Missouri is 2-8 on the road. The Tigers do have an excellent point guard in Phil Pressey. However, their loss to Mississippi in the quarterbacks of the SEC Tournament is troubling as the Tigers blew a 14-point second-half lead. This brings into question their vulnerability on the road. Note, too, that the Tigers have failed to cover 10 of the last 14 times they've played a foe with a winning mark.


By contrast, the veteran Rams won six road games while playing in one of the toughest conferences in the country. They also were 3-0 at neutral sites. Only one of the Rams' losses was to an opponent not in the NCAA Tournament.


The Rams are battle and road tested. They have the size and savvy to win this game straight-up. So taking points is a nice bonus.

Maybe Marquette doesn't deserve a No. 3 ranking, but the Golden Eagles are still strong enough to cover this short number.


Davidson enters the tournament with the longest winning streak in the nation. That didn't impressive the seeding committee and it doesn't impress me either. I'd rather have Marquette, which enters the tournament with a chip on its shoulder after a Big East Tournament quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame. Just like last year, Marquette lost its opening Big East Tournament game and then proceeded to reach the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. The Golden Eagles aren't exactly cold either having won six of their past eight.


Davidson lost to the top non-league competition it played falling to among others, New Mexico, Duke and Gonzaga. The Wildcats are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times they've faced a foe with a winning record. They also are just 5-13-1 ATS during their past 19 nonconference matchups.


The Wildcats lack size and are not quick. They are going to have problems with a physical Big East team such as Marquette, which will strive to push the ball inside getting much easier baskets while Davidson has to rely on it's long-range perimeter game.

These two teams hook up in something called the CollegeInsider Tournament. It's a minor tournament where the host,Youngstown State, actually shelled out $35,000 to hold the matchup.



It's the first time Youngstown State is participating in a postseason tournament since 1977. The Penguins are just two years removed from back-to-back 2-16 Horizon League records. The Penguins have improved, but they still aren't very good. They are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games.



The spread is where it is because the Penguins are home, although I don't know how much support they'll get for this bogus tournament, and because all-conference guard Kendrick Perry is expected to play after being out a month with a knee injury. Perry, though, could be rusty.



Oakland is a tough test for a team not used to playing the run-and-gun Grizzlies. The Grizzlies love to race the floor ranking among the top 40 teams in scoring. The Grizzlies have covered the past five times when taking on a foe with a winning record.



A major key in these minor tournament matchups is motivation. Oakland is in the Summit League. The Grizzlies aspire to join the Horizon League possibly as a replacement for Butler. A loss to Youngstown State would not be helpful in that direction.

New Mexico State has too much size and plays too much pressure defense for Texas State.


The Aggies swept Texas State during the regular season winning 86-72 on the road and 78-67 at home.


The Bobcats sprung a huge upset last night upsetting Denver. Texas State, though, isn't good enough to put together back-to-back good games against quality conferrence opponents. Texas State is 2-8 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Kansas has dominated Texas Tech winning the past seven in the series by an average of 25.6 points.

The Jayhawks have been itching to get going in the Big 12 Tournament after being routed by Baylor in their last game, which was their first loss in eight games. The Jayhawks hadn't lost by that much since 2006.

Texas Tech upset West Virginia, 71-69, on Wednesday as 8-point 'dogs when Dejan Kravic tipped in a missed shot right before the buzzer. It was just the Red Raiders' third win in their last 18 games and second on the road.

Texas Tech is 2-14 ATS following a spread cover. The combination of Kansas being vastly superior and motivated and the Red Raiders being emotionally drained puts me solidly with the Jayhawks.

This Western Athletic Conference Tournament matchup pits No. 3 seed New Mexico State against No. 6 seed Idaho. A third versus sixth is usually a dangerous game for the favored third seed.

These two teams met twice during the regular season and the games could not have been closer. New Mexico State won 76-74 at home when Idaho missed two shots during the final 14 seconds. The Aggies only won by two despite shooting 53.6 percent from the floor compared to Idaho's 46.3 from the field. The Aggies also nipped the Vandals, 71-70, at Idaho.

Idaho is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times when playing a foe with an above .600 winning percentage.

The Vandals have a dangerous outside-inside game. They were one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the WAC. More important, the Vandals have the league's MVP in center Kyle Barone. The senior led the league in rebounding at 9.9 per game and was No. 2 in the conference in scoring at 17.1 a game. He also was the third-best free throw shooting in the WAC at .779. Taking just league games, Barone was the top scorer and rebounder in the WAC.

Thanks to Barone, the Vandals can definitely hang in if not upset the Aggies, who rely on inside scoring.

I like UAB to beat SMU in this first-round Conference USA tournament game. The teams just met 10 days ago in Birmingham, Ala., and the Blazers won, 74-69.

UAB won despite not playing very well or hard. SMU shot 57.7 percent from the floor, while the Blazers made 43.6 percent of their field goal attempts yet still managed to win by more than this current spread number.

UAB has the better inside game and a much stronger bench. I see the Blazers coming out far more motivated and playing much better. That should be enough to dispatch a team they are better than.

Wyoming is looking to turn things around and earn a minor tournament bid after going 5-12 following a 13-0 start. Nevada, though, is in worse shape. The Wolf Pack have dropped seven in a row, the last five by double digits. I don't see the Wolf Pack suddenly just switching gears.

The two teams hook up today in a play-in game in the Mountain West Tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Nevada has failed to cover eight of the past 11 times when playing on a neutral floor.

Wyoming is 18-12. Nevada is 12-18. The Cowboys beat the Wolf Pack by11 in Reno and then rolled by them by 20 points at home in Laramie. The key for the Cowboys is Leonard Washington, a powerful 6-foo-7, 230-pound forward. He averaged 16 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, four steals and 3.5 blocks in the victories against Nevada.

Washington has been limited the past two games by an ankle and back injury. His status is a factor why this line is low. The Cowboys last played on Wednesday and word is that the time off has really helped Washington. He should be at full go. Nevada, though, may be without guard Jerry Evans Jr. He has an injured wrist on his shooting hand.

These two teams met twice during the regular season and Western Illinois won both times, holding North Dakota State to a puny average of 39 points a game.

Western Illinois has a lot of momentum in this Summit League Tournament having earned a share of the regular season conference title for the first time in 30 years. The Fighting Leathernecks have won 22 games, the most ever in the program's NCAA Division I era.

The Bison are 0-5 ATS the past five times when meeting an opponent with a winning record. By contrast, Western Illinois is 14-4 ATS when taking on a foe with a winning mark.

This is just too many points for Ohio State to lay against a quality Big Ten foe. There aren't going to be any surprises here. These teams know each other having already met. Defense will be at a premium so taking this many points makes sense.

Illinois has beaten good teams on the road, including now top-ranked Gonzaga. The Illini beat Ohio State by 19 points at home earlier this season. That was a sweet win for Illini coach John Groce, who coached for four years under Ohio State coach Thad Matta. Groce goes way back with Matta having also been on his staff at Butler and Xavier.

Illinois was flat this past Tuesday in a loss to Iowa. Prior to that, however, the Illini had won six of seven.

Air Force is very tough at home. The Falcons' only home losses have been to Wichita State early in the season and Colorado State, each by three points. The Falcons have defeated UNLV, Boise and San Diego State at home.

The Falcons are capable of upsetting a disinterested New Mexico squad, too. The Lobos already have won the Mountain West Conference title. They have defeated Air Force 12 straight times. Nobody on the Air Force team has seen the Falcons beat New Mexico.

All of this should ensure that Air Force is the more motivated team.

Northern Iowa is my college game of the year. The Panthers meet Illinois State today in a quarterfinal Missouri Valley Conference Tournament game in St. Louis. The Panthers are seeded No. 3. Illinois State is seeded No. 6. The Panthers are 6-1 under Ben Jacobson when they are the higher seed in this tournament.

Illinois State came on after a slow start, but the Redbirds are not better than the Panthers. That's evident in the won-lost records, seeding, in the statistics and in the two matchups the teams had this season.

The two teams met on Jan. 5 at Illinois State. Northern Iowa won 70-60. The teams just met this past Saturday and Northern Iowa won, 80-72. The Panthers won despite shooting 39.7 percent from the floor while the Redbirds made 50 percent of their field goal attempts. The Panthers had a 40-25 rebounding advantage. It was the 10th time in the last 12 meetings during the past four years that Northern Iowa has defeated Illinois State.

The Panthers have won seven of their last nine. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Missouri Valley games. Illinois State is 0-4 ATS the past four times it has faced an opponent with a winning record. Northern Iowa has more wins against RPI Top 50 teams than the Redbirds.

The Panthers also are allowing seven points per game less than Illinois State. They rank 56th in the nation giving up 61.4 points a game. The Panthers rank No. 8 in the country in free throw shooting and led the conference in free throw percentage. Northern Iowa also is the better rebounding team as they proved during the last meeting six days ago.

This is a big revenge game for Pacific, which is still in the hunt for the Big West title but needing a win in this matchup.

Irvine defeated the Tigers, 68-59, on Feb. 20. Pacific coach Bob Thomason prides his team on defense and the Tigers didn't play good defense in that game.

Pacific has been very tough in Stockton going 11-2. Irvine is 1-4 ATS in its last five games and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 away contests versus foes with a winning home record.

The Tigers are averaging 67 points in their last two games, which were road victories against Cal State Fullerton and UC Riverside. The Tigers shot a combined 48.4 percent in those two games while accumulating 31 assists out of 47 made field goals. That's impressive considering the Tigers have been much stronger shooting team at home.

This is a huge revenge spot for VCU. I see the Rams burying the Spiders.

VCU is 14-2 at home. The Rams are 7-1 in their last eight games overall. Richmond is 3-9 on the road. The Spiders are 3-12-2 ATS on the road versus foes with a winning home record. The Rams are 7-3 ATS at home.

Richmond beat the Rams, 84-76, in overtime as nine-point 'dogs on Jan. 24. The Spiders made 12 of 27 3-point attempts in that game. That was the most 3's VCU has given up all season. VCU, by contrast, missed 14 of 17 shots from beyond the arc. Each team averages eight 3-pointers per game.

The Rams have covered the last six times when hosting the Spiders.

Motivation with the home 'dog has a lot to do with this handicap. Buffalo is tied for fourth in the Mid-American Conference with Kent State and Eastern Michigan, who hold the tiebreaker advantage. In the MAC, the top five finishers avoid a first-round playoff game and advance straight to the conference tournament.

So this is a huge game for the Bulls. It's also senior night in Buffalo. The Bulls should have decent crowd support. Ohio has locked up the No. 2 seed in the conference, but it's highly unlikely it can move up or down from that spot.

Ohio has the better record and beat the Bulls, 86-68, at home on Jan. 9. Buffalo, however, is playing better. The Bulls are 4-2 in their last six conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups. Note that three of these foes were plus .500 teams in the conference. The Bulls beat Akron, 81-67, at home this past Saturday as a 6 1/2-point 'dog. It was the Zips' first MAC loss of the season and ended their 13-game conference win streak.

Sparked by senior guard Tony Watson's hot-shooting, the Bulls are averaging 76 points during their last five games. Watson has made 23 of his last 38 shots from beyond the arc. The Bulls also get scoring inside from forward Javon McCrea, who averages 20.1 points a game and is hitting 56.4 percent of his shots from the floor.

I see North Carolina State setting aside its road woes and beating Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack have won four of their last five with only a road loss at North Carolina. They are 18-8 ATS following a straight-up victory.

Georgia Tech is off a big home win against Maryland. The Yellow Jackets are 6-21 ATS following a straight-up victory.

North Carolina State has covered during its last five visits to Georgia Tech. NCS beat Georgia Tech by 13 points when the teams met in January.

I'm not going to Einstein this. I just want the Blue Devils going for me. If ever there was a revenge spot worth playing, this is the one.

Miami embarrassed the Blue Devils winning by 27 at Coral Gables, Fla., on Jan. 23. The Blue Devils shot less than 30 percent from the floor. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski was fuming. It was Duke's worst regular-season loss in nearly 30 years.

Making things worse for Duke is the Blue Devils got knocked off 73-68 on the road by Virginia this past Thursday. Now the Blue Devils really need this game.

Duke had won eight of its past nine until falling to Virginia. The Blue Devils have played the nation's second most difficult schedule and have defeated five top-50 teams on neutral floors. Now they're at Cameron Indoor Stadium where they they have won 92 of the last 97 times.

Miami is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Hurricanes are averaging just 55 points during their last two away matchups.

Gonzaga is on the verge of claiming its first-ever No.1 ranking. The Bulldogs just clinched the West Coast Conference title with a tough 70-65 road win against BYU two days ago. It's also Senior Day at McCarthey Athletic Center so the Bulldogs have a lot of distractions.

There's also the overconfidence/letdown factor. Gonzaga has owned Portland beating the Pilots 34 of 35 times.

Is Portland going to upset Gonzaga? No, but this spread is too high considering the various situational factors. Yes, the Bulldogs have owned the Pilots. They've won the last 19 in this series by an average of less than 18 points per game. They beat Portland, 71-49, at Portland on Jan. 17. That was a 22-point victory on Jan. 17.

Portland is by no means a good team, but the Pilots have played better lately covering four of their last six. It's doubtful that Gonzaga leaves its starters in that long against Portland leaving the backdoor wide open.

I see Princeton getting revenge after suffering a 69-57 road loss to Harvard three games ago.

Since that defeat, the Tigers blew out Columbia and Cornell on the road. They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 Ivy League games.

Princeton also has covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series and is 4-0 ATS at home versus Harvard.

The wrong team is favored here. San Francisco has won six of its last 10. The Dons have enjoyed great success, too, at San Diego winning during their last six visits. They are 6-1 overall during the last seven games between the two teams.

The Dons' one defeat during this span came earlier this season at home, 70-66. San Francisco made just eight of 31 shots from beyond the arc. The Dons are shooting much better now making 43.7 percent of their 3-pointers during their last three games. If that figure was computed for the entire season, the Dons would easily lead the nation in 3-point shooting.

Consequently, San Diego is having problems with its shooting. The Toreros haven't broken the 52-point barrier during their past four games, all losses.

San Francisco has been a strong money-maker on the road going 33-16-2 ATS during its past 51 away contests.

San Francisco has revenge, is shooting well while San Diego isn't and has a strong history covering road games, especially when playing the Toreors on the road.

These teams are going in opposite directions. North Carolina is peaking with three straight double-digit victories. The Tar Heels have proven themselves on the road, too, in the ACC beating Florida State, Boston College and Georgia Tech.

Clemson has dropped five of its last six. The Tigers are eighth in the ACC. The Tigers lost at Florida State and Boston College. They defeated Georgia Tech by three at home, a team North Carolina defeated by 12 on the road.

The Tar Heels rank first in the conference in steals and assists. The Tar Heels are more athletic than Clemson and average 17 more points per game than the Tigers. Clemson's young backcourt is going to have problems handling the speed and athleticism of North Carolina.

North Carolina has a strong mental edge in this series having won 14 of the last 15 times, including the past four.

San Diego State won the first meeting between these two teams, 55-34. I look for the Lobos to get their revenge. They are still embarrassed about their lack of scoring in that game, the fewest they have scored in more than 20 years.

The Lobos are 6-0 at home in Mountain West Conference play, 5-0-1 ATS. Overall, they are 13-1 at the Pit and 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 lined games and 20-8-2 during their past 30 home matchups.

The combination of the Lobos being in good form, having revenge and playing in The Pit puts me on New Mexico. The Lobos are a mind-boggling 102-12 there during the past eight seasons. This time they will take advantage of their height advantage against San Diego State and win convincingly.

Western Michigan has not fared well at Toledo going 2-10-1 ATS. This is a huge revenge spot for the Rockets, who lost at Western Michigan by 23 points.

Since beating Toledo, Western Michigan has gone just 2-2. Toledo, on the other hand, has won seven of its last eight going 6-2 ATS. The Rockets are tough at home covering 10 of the last 14 times.

The Huskies have been underdogs four times in Colonial Athletic Association action and won all four times straight-up. All four were road games, too. Northeastern has covered in six of its last eight road matchups and is 12-2 in its last 14 overall contests.

Georgia State is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage above .600.

Wake Forest has become a dangerous foe when playing at home - as Miami found out this past Saturday. But the Demon Deacons still can't win on the road and they are in a massive letdown spot traveling after upsetting then-second ranked Miami ending the Hurricanes' 14-game win streak and unbeaten ACC record.

Wake Forest isn't going to be ready to face the revenge-minded Seminoles at Tallahassee. The Demon Deacons are 1-22 in ACC road competition during the three-year Jeff Bzdelik era. The Demon Deacons have lost all seven of their ACC away games this year with five of the defeats coming by at least 16 points.

Florida State has a better overall record than Wake Forest. The Seminoles were three-point road favorites against the Demon Deacons when they met on Feb. 9 and lost by 25 points. That humiliation is still fresh enough in the minds of the Seminoles that they certainly won't lack for intensity. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are in a huge down spot following their big win against the Hurricanes.

Creighton appeared to be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament last month. But going just 5-5 in their last 10 games has raised doubt about the Bluejays' chances. Now along comes this Bracketbusters game that the Bluejays are highly motivated to win.


Creighton beat Long Beach State in a Bracketbusters game last season and I see the Bluejays repeating the feat against another California foe.


I rate these teams as close to even so it's worth taking this many points with a highly motivated underdog.


St. Mary

The wrong team is favored here. Stephen F. Austin is 22-3 and has an excellent player in senior Taylor Smith, who leads the nation in field goal percentage at 70.7. The Lumberjacks play outstanding defense holding foes to 49.7 points a game. They defeated Oklahoma earlier this season.

Long Beach State has yet to beat a good team going 0-9 versus top 25 foes. The 49ers are 1-7 ATS when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. They also have failed to cover in their last four non-conference games.

This is a showcase matchup for Stephen F. Austin being a BracketBusters game. I look for the Lumberjacks to get the job done.

Yes, Louisiana Monroe isn't very good. But Western Kentucky certainly isn't a strong enough team to lay double-digits in this Sun Belt Conference matchup.

The Hilltoppers have failed to cover in seven of their last eight Sun Belt matchups and are ranked 205th in the Sagarin ratings.

Western Kentucky won the first meeting between the two teams, 65-54. However, the Warhawks trailed by just four with about three and a half minutes left before falling by 11. In that game, Monroe lost its leading scorer, guard Amos Olatayo. He is back now and playing well.

This has been a road team series with the visitor covering seven of the last nine times.

There is nothing fancy to this handicap. Murray State is the better team and laying a short road number. The Racers lead the West Division of the Ohio Valley Conference with an 18-7 record. Morehead State is 13-14.

Morehead State has failed to cover in its last five league games. However, Murray State has lost straight-up in its last two games despite being heavy favorites.

I see the Racers coming in focused and ready in this matchup. The spread is low enough to back the superior team.

The Ohio Valley Conference is not a high priority conference for the oddsmaker. His power ratings for this game are skewed because of Murray State's unimpressive last two games. It's just a temporary bump in the road for the Racers. Their due to get back on track here.

Neither team is great. Yet BYU is laying double-digits. The well-coached Aggies haven't been double-digit 'dogs all season. BYU has been favored by more seven points in four of its last five games and is 0-4 ATS in those games.

This game was originally scheduled for Dec. 5, but was postponed when Utah State guard Danny Berger went into cardiac arrest the day before. The matchup falls right in the middle of conference season, but that's a plus for the underdog Aggies as this is an intense in-state rivalry.

Utah State has overcome injuries to get back on track winning four its last five games. Last year, Utah State beat BYU, 69-62. BYU may be the better team this year, but the Cougars are nothing special. They are laying too many points in this one.

I'll take whatever points I can get in this battle for first place in the Patriot League. Both teams were caught looking ahead to this league showdown with each losing this past Saturday.

Bucknell had a five-game winning streak snapped, losing 63-62 to Lafayette. Lehigh fell to Colgate, 64-60. Lehigh trailed 38-16 with 4:04 left in the first half before launching a comeback that fell short.

Bucknell should dominate inside thanks to 6-foot-11 Mike Muscala, one of the better big men in the country. This matchup comes down to Lehigh's outside shooting and Bucknell's superior inside game. Bucknell ranks 11th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. I see Bucknell's perimeter defense, and inside dominance with Muscala, trumping Lehigh's long-range shooting.

After starting 0-6 in Missouri Valley Conference play, Illinois State has gone 7-1. I see the Redbirds, though, stumbling against Wichita State, which is facing a pivotal two-game road trip starting with this matchup.

The Shockers are the better team. They have a 38 RPI rating compared to Illinois State's 114 and defeated the Redbirds, 74-62, on Jan. 16. The Shockers accomplished that victory minus Carl Hall, their top rebounder and second-leading scorer.

Wichita State has won at Illinois State each of the past two seasons winning by 13 and 14 points, respectively. The Shockers are 15-7-1 ATS during their past 23 games versus a foe with a winning record.

There's been early movement in the marketplace on this matchup - and I agree with the move to Illinois.

Northwestern upset Illinois, 68-54, back on Jan. 17 when the Illini weren't playing well. The Illini have turned things around winning three in a row, including beating Indiana. This is a key game for Illinois if they hope to have an at-large shot.

Injuries have derailed Northwestern's hopes. Having lost swingman and second-leading scorer Drew Crawford for the season in December, the Wildcats suffered another recent crippling blow with Jared Shropshire, their top rebounder, done for the year with a knee injury.

Arkansas is 30-4 at home during the Mike Anderson era. The Razorbacks have lost just one game at home this season - and that was by nine points to sixth-ranked Syracuse. Missouri has won just once on the road.

Missouri has problems with teams that press. The Tigers lost to Florida and Louisville, two teams known for their all-out pressure, by a combined 54 points. Arkansas is much more effective with its press when playing at home.

Providence is playing well with three straight Big East victories, including knocking off Villanova and Cincinnati. The Friars are a respectable 5-7 in conference and have a winning record overall. Notre Dame is 2-6 ATS when playing a foe with a winning mark.

The Irish also have gone into overtime in three of their last four games - winning all three times. All together, Notre Dame has played seven overtime periods during this span. They are a tired team.

Now the Irish are traveling to the East Coast playing a hot team at a tough road venue. It's letdown time for Notre Da

Manhattan and Iona met back on Jan. 6. Manhattan covered as a 12 1/2-point underdog losing 78-70.

The spread is considerably smaller this time around. But I still like Manhattan. The Jaspers are playing much better since that first loss to Iona. They have won three in a row, while Iona is 1-3 in its last four games, 0-4 ATS. The Gaels also are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Manhattan also has covered six of the last seven times when getting points.

This is a big Atlantic 10 matchup that I believe will be much closer than what the oddsmakers figure.

VCU has a strong press, but the Minutemen have a quality guard in Chaz Williams to handle it plus big men Cady Lalanne and Terrell Vinson to control the boards and slow down the Rams.

The Rams are in first place in the Atlantic 10, but overrated by the oddsmaker. They have failed to cover in their last five league games.

UMASS is 6-0-1 the past seven times when playing foes that have a winning percentage of .600 or above. The Minutemen also are 4-0-1 in their past five conference games.

The Huskies are running away with the Colonial Athletic Association, but are 4-6 ATS as favorites this season. Even though they are an impressive 12-1 in conference, eight of their victories have been by five points or less.

Northeastern is 7-18-1 ATS when playing a foe with a losing road record. Delaware's record, though, is deceiving.

The Blue Hens opened by losing eight of their first 11. But they've come on to go 10-4, including 5-1 since a three-game losing streak in mid-January. One of those defeats was to Northeastern by four points at home.

Delaware is playing better now, has revenge and Northeastern doesn't have as much motivation and is not strong in a favorite's role.

OK, at plus 8 I'll bite. These teams are pretty close to even so I'm going to take the points. Villanova has proven itself on the road going 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight road games.

The Bearcats have slowed down since a 13-1 start going 5-5 in their past 10 games with their victories during this span occurring mainly against the Big East's weaker teams. The Bearcats have failed to cover during their last seven home contests.

Cincinnati is in a shooting slump averaging just 51 points in losing its past two games to Providence and Pittsburgh. Villanova has become one of the better defensive teams in the Big East limiting their last five foes to 60.4 points per game and 36.7 shooting from the floor.

The Wildcats have the necessary backcourt quickness to match up effectively against Cincinnati's four-guard lineup. This is what Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin was quoted as saying about Villanova's defense:

I think this is a short number to lay with a much better team. Northeastern leads the Colonial Athletic Association with a 11-1 mark compared to Wiliam & Mary's 3-8 record. Overall, Northeastern is 16-8 compared to William & Mary's 9-13 mark.

The Huskies have covered five of their last six road games and are 11-1 in their last 12 overall games. This includes a narrow 95-91 overtime win at home against William & Mary on Jan. 23 and should ensure that Northeastern is fully focused for this rematch. William & Mary shot 53 percent from the field and still didn't win that game.

The Huskies were 10-point favorites in that matchup. Now the spread is far smaller. The Tribe is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.

The Jayhawks haven't lost three in a row in nearly eight years. I don't see it happening here. Kansas is 12-4-1 ATS following a loss.

Oklahoma doesn't match up well to the Jayhawks. The Sooners have dropped their last 10 meetings to Kansas by an average of 13 points. The Sooners have failed to cover in five of their last six league games as Big 12 teams are figuring out the Sooners.

Kansas beat Oklahoma, 67-54, on Jan. 26. The Sooners' perimeter shooting has gotten worse since then.

This spread opened too short as Canisius is a much better team than Manhattan. The Golden Griffins are 8-4 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference while the Jaspers are 5-7 in league.

Canisius is in good form, too, winning five of its last six. The Golden Griffins are 10-4 ATS following a victory. Manhattan defeated St. Peter's in its last game, but has dropped 10 of its past 14 games. The Jaspers are 3-7 ATS following a victory.

Canisius won't be taking Manhattan lightly either as the Golden Griffins won by just four points at home in the first meeting between the two teams as 7 1/2-point favorite on Jan. 17.

This has been a road team series with the visitor covering the past eight times. Canisius is 5-1-1 ATS during its last seven visits to Manhattan.

My sources who pay attention to this conference rate Canisius nearly 10 points better than Manhattan on a neutral court based on overall talent and current form. So this is a very cheap price to lay.

Southern Mississippi is playing its third straight road game, having squeezed out close wins during the first two away games on their trip beating Tulsa and UAB.

The Golden Eagles are 7-0 in Conference USA, their best start ever in league action. They are tied for first with Memphis, also 7-0. Southern Mississippi hosts Memphis on Saturday so there is a look ahead angle in fading the Golden Eagles along with the third consecutive road game factor. The Golden Eagles also haven't played any of the tougher conference teams yet.

Central Florida is 5-2 in Conference USA. The Knights are a solid 15-6 overall, but ineligible for the C-USA Tournament and all other tournaments due to NCAA violations. Central Florida is off a close road loss at Marshall. That snapped a four-game winning streak. Now the Knights are back home and will be treating this as their biggest game since they have no postseason.

The Knights have covered in nine of their last 13 home games, while Southern Mississippi is 4-10 ATS when playing on the road versus foes with a winning home record.

Central Florida has forward Keith Clanton, who was selected as the conference's preseason player of the year. This is what Southern Mississippi forward Daveon Boardingham was quoted as saying about the matchup, "They've got the preseason MVP, so I think we're the underdogs."

Except Southern Mississippi isn't the underdog. They are the favorite. I disagree. Central Florida should win straight-up.

Seton Hall is having a down season and Pittsburgh is better than its conference record. Still, this is too many points for the Panthers to be laying against a Big East foe especially given their scheduling situation.

The Panthers got their signature win of the season. It came just two days ago at home when they defeated then sixth-ranked Syracuse, 65-55. The Panthers have another huge game on deck when they play Cincinnati on Saturday.

Seton Hall beat Pittsburgh, 73-66, at home in the team's lone meeting last season. The Pirates have a tall front line that can hang with Pittsburgh with Gene Teague, Fuguan Edwin and Brandon Moore. The trio combines to average nearly 40 points per game and pull down 20 rebounds a game.

Pitt coach Jamie Dixon probably won't look to run up a score either on Seton Hall, which is coached by Kevin Willard. He's a former Panther point guard and son of ex-Panther head coach Ralph Willard.