I'm looking for a strong bounce back effort from Davidson at home after the Wildcats lost its Atlantic-10 opener six days ago to Dayton, 72-59. That was the Wildcats' first home defeat in seven games and also halted a seven-game win streak. Davidson had a bad shooting night, while Dayton was hot making 50 percent of its shots from the floor.

Davidson matches up much better against Rhode Island.  

The Wildcats are the stronger defensive team, has a much better turnover ratio than the Rams and has a deeper bench. The Rams give up six more points per game than Davidson and rank 283rd in 3-point defense. The Rams also rate 284th in turnovers.

Getting even a basket with Iowa State is huge in this matchup of defensive giants.

The Cyclones had their six-game win streak halted on the road by 11th-ranked Oklahoma State this past Saturday. I like the Cyclones to get back on the winning track at home. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.

Houston is unbeaten. But five of the Cougars' last six games have been against extremely easy foes.

BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams.

And the Cougars haven't even been 100 percent - until now. Expected to play is defensive ace Fousseyni Traore, who is the Cougars' sixth-leading scorer. He had missed December because of a hamstring injury.

The 12th-ranked Cougars are ready to make their Big 12 debut against Cincinnati, another newcomer to the esteemed Big 12 Conference.

BYU is a legitimate 12-1. All of its victories have been by at least nine points. The Cougars average 90.4 points and hold their foes to an average of 61.5 points.

Cincinnati is 11-2, but that record is bogus given the soft schedule the Bearcats have played. This is just the Bearcats' third true road game of the season.

Cincinnati failed to cover as 12 1/2-point road favorites against Howard needing overtime to win, 86-81. The Bearcats lost on the road to Xavier, 84-79, as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati also has played one neutral site game. That was against Dayton. The Bearcats were 5 1/2-point favorites and lost, 82-68.

Given their road woes and soft schedule, I don't see the Bearcats staying within double-digits of the powerful Cougars.

Butler has never beaten Connecticut in seven tries. Butler has never kept the final score below double-digits either in any of its losses to Connecticut. Maybe the Bulldogs can keep this game in single digits, but I don't see them pulling the upset.

There are reasons why Butler has never defeated the Huskies. The Bulldogs can't match that talent level, size and athletic ability.

Connecticut is fourth-ranked in the country. The Huskies are playing well going 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their past six games.

Butler is not in good form having lost its past two games. Those losses were to St. John's by 16 points and to Providence in overtime. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five board games.

Texas Arlington is underpriced here. The Mavericks have played a tougher schedule than Tarleton State. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games. This includes the Mavericks covering against Texas, Texas Tech and Grand Canyon, who they led in the second half against. 

Tarleton State has been favored twice in the last four weeks and failed to cover each time. The Texans nearly lost to Texas Rio Grande Valley as a 10 1/2-point home favorite.

Top-ranked Purdue has one loss this season. That defeat occurred to Northwestern on the road. It happened to be the Boilermakers' lone true road game this season.

Now Purdue travels to Maryland to face the Terps, who have a powerful home court edge. Maryland has won 19 consecutive home contests, the fourth-longest streak in Division I.

The Boilermakers didn't fare well at Maryland last season losing, 68-54.

The Terrapins have the interior defense to control Zach Edey.

Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category. 

The Vikings won't lack motivation either after losing in embarrassing fashion to Eastern Washington, 91-57, as 3-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. 
The Vandals are a bit fat and happy after they halted a two-game losing streak with a 61-58 home win against Sacramento State as 3-point favorites. Idaho is averaging only 56.6 points in its last three games vs board teams. 

Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener.

The Golden Bears are going to slow down the pace under first-year coach Mark Madsen. This is a plus in getting this many points. So is the Golden Bears getting Devin Askew back from injury. He averaged 15.5 points last season. Cal has three other good players in Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq and Jalen Cone. Those three are averaging a combined 52 points a game.

I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games.

UTSA nearly upset Oregon State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog two games ago. The Roadrunners suffered a one-point, last-second defeat. Now they're home and dropping well down in class.

Prairie View A&M is one of the worst shooting teams in the country with a field goal percentage of 39.5 percent. The Panthers are bad defensively, too, giving up 76.9 points per game.

UTSA averages nearly 77 points a game and has Christian Tucker, who leads the American Athletic Conference in assists and averages 13 points.

This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home.

Siena is terrible. The Saints also happen to be 2-9 ATS. They are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing by an average of 25.5 points in their past four games. Siena just lost, 95-74, to Cornell as a 12 1/2-point home 'dog. This is significant. Because we have a similar point spread here with the Saints being on the road against Brown, another Ivy League school.

Brown was right behind Cornell as the fourth-best team in the Ivy League preseason poll. The Bears may have the best player in the Ivy League, Kino Lilly. The guard averages nearly 19 points. He's supported by an experienced and deep frontcourt.

I have Brown winning this game by 16-to-18 points.

UNLV is in action for the first time since upsetting No. 8 ranked Creighton this past Wednesday. It was the Rebels' highest-ranked win since 2020. I'm looking for a Rebel letdown against this elite defensive foe in this neutral site tournament matchup in Phoenix.

Saint Mary's had a tough November, but has looked much better this month. The Gaels give up the eighth-fewest points in the country. They just defeated 13th-ranked Colorado State, 64-61, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Rams averaged 83.3 points. So the Gaels held them to 22 points below their season average. 

Saint Mary's has held four of its last five foes to 63 or fewer points. The Rebels can't come close to matching that quality of defense. 
UNLV is ranked 101st in the KenPom rankings. Saint Mary's is rated 62nd. 

The gap is large enough and the situation ripe enough to lay this number with the Gaels.

These in-state rivals just played 13 days ago in The Pit at New Mexico. It was no contest. New Mexico buried the Aggies, 106-62. The Lobos made 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range for 56 percent. New Mexico State missed 15 of its 18 3-point shots for 17 percent.

I don't expect that kind of shooting discrepancy, nor do I believe the Lobos will blow out the Aggies again especially with this rematch being in Las Cruces.

That blowout in the first game was unusual for this Rio Grande Rivalry. New Mexico State is 6-4 during the past 10 games against New Mexico. The Aggies hadn't lost by double-digits during this span until that defeat.

So I'm to ride with the Aggies in this rapid revenge spot.

Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.

But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.

I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.

The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.

Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points.

Wagner is 2-0 at home. The Seahawks have a top-40 defense, have played a tougher schedule and are in good current form winning three of their last four, including the past two.

So I find Wagner worth backing in this spot in this price range.

I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue.

Illinois lost by seven points at home to Marquette. Wisconsin beat Marquette by nine points just two games ago. Tennessee defeated Wisconsin by 10 points on the road.

A key for Tennessee is getting inside production from big men Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka, which they've started to get.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team.

The Bluejays are a top-40 scoring and defensive team. They rank 18th in 3-point field goal accuracy. The Bluejays also are a much better rebounding team than Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers have been favored in each of their previous seven games. Their schedule has been so weak they've been favored by at least 14 1/2 points in five of their seven games. Nebraska still doesn't have its full complement of rotation players either.

Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup.

Nevada is good. Loyola Marymount is an average West Coast Conference team. The Lions are 5-3, but have played very weak competition. Their victories have been against Westcliff, Jackson State, FIU, UTEP and Central Arkansas. The Lions' losses have occurred to Yale, Stephen F. Austin and Oakland.

It's a step up for the Lions to play on the road against Nevada. A key is Nevada doesn't turn the ball over, ranking fifth in the nation in turnover margin. Loyola Marymount is 216th in that important category.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season.

Both teams, though, have been slow out of the gate. Each is 1-5.

I'm not sold on Rider laying road points here. The Broncos' only victory came at home against non-Division I Immaculata. All five of their defeats occurred on the road. They are 1-4 ATS in their road matchups.

The Saints are 25-9 in their home MAAC openers.

Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog.

Louisiana Lafayette has won three in a row. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy, sinking nearly 41 percent of their 3-point attempts.

Samford has played one of the easiest schedules in the land. The Bulldogs haven't defeated an opponent ranked higher than 285th in the KenPom rankings. Yet they are just 1-5 ATS in their lined games.

Samford's biggest weakness is defending against the 3-pointer where it ranks 267th.

I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.

Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.

Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.

This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.

Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.

Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.

It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players. 

Bellarmine is improving. The Knights covered against Kansas State, losing 83-75, on the road and blew out Bowling Green on the road. They are tested and dangerous to West Virginia in this spot.

No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament. 

BYU, on the other hand, is riding high at 5-0. One of the Cougars' wins was against then 17th-ranked San Diego State, 74-65, at home. 

No doubt BYU will be ASU's most difficult opponent. But the Sun Devils have been a good 'dog team, have had substantial prep time and are drawing good line value.

I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.

New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.

Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland.

The Pilots do two things: Turn the ball over frequently and miss a lot of 3-point shots. Portland averages 18 turnovers a game and ranks 267th in 3-point accuracy. 

Nevada commits the 11th-fewest turnovers in the nation. The disciplined WolfPack should cover this number being home and matching up well to Portland. 

Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.

The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.

The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.

This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.

I regard these teams as even. So does the KenPom rankings, which list Nevada 69th and Washington 70th.

So I see value taking this many points. The Wolf Pack have the good guards needed to hit 3-pointers and get to the free throw line against the Huskies' 2-3 zone defense they constantly employ.

Nevada also has the size necessary to rebound with tall Washington. 

The Huskies hosted Northern Kentucky in their last game. The Huskies failed to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites, winning by only eight. It was not an impressive win. 

I want Saint Mary's going for me in this spot. This is a monster revenge game for the Gaels. They've had this game circled ever since New Mexico upset them as a nine-point road underdog, 69-65, last season. That halted the Gaels' 23-game home win streak.

Credit to the Lobos for that great upset win, but I fear them a lot less when they are on the road.

New Mexico is an NIT team. Saint Mary's was a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and has many returning players.

UNC Asheville isn't getting enough respect here. The Bulldogs won the Big South last season to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. They finished 27-7.

Michigan is in regroup mode after losing Hunter Dickinson, their top scorer and rebounder. He transferred to Kansas. The Wolverines also lost guards Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin, both of whom were selected in the NBA draft. Michigan also doesn't have Jace Howard, who is out with a stress fracture to his knee. Wolverines coach Juwan Howard underwent heart surgery in September so he's in recovery.

The timing is ripe for Asheville to spring a major upset.

Northern Iowa should be much improved from its 12-20 record of last season. The Panthers return nine of its top 10 scorers along with having three highly touted freshmen. Two of the Panthers' returners, Tylan Anderson and Bowen Born, were named to the All-Missouri Valley preseason all-conference team.

North Texas was an impressive 31-7 last season. However, the Mean Green lost their three top scorers. They don't have the bench strength that Northern Iowa has.

I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch.

The Commodores have a deep and athletic backcourt headed by returning guards, Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence.

Presbyterian is off a 5-27 season in which it lost its last 18 games. The Blue Hose was picked to finish last in the Big South during the league's preseason poll. Their two top scorers transferred and they are breaking in eight new players. The Blue Hose lack the athleticism to slow down Vanderbilt's guards.

College of Charleston went 31-4  last season, reaching No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll and earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars should be good again with a strong junior class and balanced scoring. 

I like the Cougars to take care of business at home against Iona, which has a new coach and only one returning player, Osborn Shema. He was the Gaels' sixth-leading scorer last season. 

Iona's new coach is Tobin Anderson, who has had only one year of Division I coaching experience. It's going to take time for the Gaels to jell and get the right rotation with a roster nearly full of new players.

There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number.

Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively.

However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that.

Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams.

Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here.

Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road.

The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor.

UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers.

Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games.

I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament.

Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense.

Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves.

Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament.

It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside.

Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points.

I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me.

Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th.

Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game.

Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns.

The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Tom Izzo is a great coach. But Michigan State is getting too much respect here because of that. Kansas State is the better team. So I'll back the Wildcats in an underdog role. 

The Wildcats have been underrated on the line all season. They have covered 16 of the past 21 times versus above .500 opponents. 

Michigan State missed 14 of 16 3-point shots in its win against Marquette. The Spartans won't survive Kansas State if they don't shoot a whole lot better from beyond the arc. The Wildcats have the superior defense. They rank 13th in 3-point defense. 

The Spartans are averaging just 66.3 points in their last three games. 

Oddsmaker opened Vanderbilt the favorite. Wrong. Alabama-Birmingham is the better team. That's the way the marketplace has so far reacted and I'm in agreement.

Vanderbilt is home and off an impressive victory against big-name Michigan. So it's understandable why the oddsmaker opened the Commodores the favorite.

But UAB is hot - 14-2 in its last 16 games, including six straight wins - and holds several key edges.

The Blazers have a rebounding edge being one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Commodores are minus their top rebounder, injured Liam Robbins. UAB also has a deeper bench. This is important, too, because the Blazers play at an extremely fast tempo. Vanderbilt has a shorter rotation making it more vulnerable to getting worn down, especially this late in the season.

Both teams played Southern Mississippi. The Blazers buried Southern Mississippi, 88-60, in their first-round NIT game. Vanderbilt lost to Southern Mississippi, 60-48, at home early in the season.

UAB is coached by Andy Kennedy, who knows the SEC well having been the head coach at Mississippi. The Blazers are 2-0 versus SEC teams this season beating Georgia at a neutral site and South Carolina at home.

I like San Jose State to win this College Basketball Invitational matchup by double-digits. 

The Spartans play in the superior conference being in the Mountain West Conference compared to Radford, which finished third in the Big South Conference. San Jose State plays strong defense, is in better current form than Radford, is the superior rebounding team and much better at the free throw line.

San Jose State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Spartans have been playing tremendous defense giving up an average of 58.8 points during their last seven games. 

Radford averages fewer than 70 points a game. The Highlanders are 290th in free throw percentage at 68.8 percent. Radford has a losing record in its last seven games. 

San Jose State has been a reliable point spread team covering 20 of its last 28 games for 71 percent. 

Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU.

Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.

I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy.

TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory.

Penn State has the right combination to upset Texas. The Nittany Lions are peaking at the perfect time going 9-2 in their last 11 games, covering in their past five matchup.

The Nittany Lions have a great guard in Jalen Pickett. They have veterans who don't get rattled and are tremendous as underdogs covering the past nine times in that role. Penn State also is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 SU the past seven times they've played a tournament team.

The pressure is all on Texas. The Longhorns haven't responded well before to this type of pressure going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry lacks NCAA Tournament experience. So that's a question mark.

Penn State is 21-8-1 (72 percent) ATS the past 30 times when playing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

Houston may be the top seed in the Midwest Regional, but the Cougars are in trouble against Auburn. The Cougars haven't been playing well going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. They lost by 10 points to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game and only beat 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky, 63-52, this past Thursday in their first-round NCAA Tournament game.

Star guard Marcus Sasser aggravated a groin injury against Northern Kentucky. His status is questionable. Jamal Shead, Houston's top assists player, also isn't 100 percent with a knee injury.

Auburn is a tough opponent for the Cougars. The Tigers are playing excellent defense, not turning the ball over and are battle tested having dealt with upper tier competition being in the SEC.

Auburn beat Iowa, 83-75, to win its 11th straight opening-round NCAA Tournament game. The Tigers took No. 1 ranked Alabama to overtime on the road and beat Tennessee by nine points during their last two regular season games. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. 
Texas has the outstanding guard play, experience, depth and defense to make a serious run in the tournament. 

Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. 

The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. 

Utah State and Missouri are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. Utah State averages 79.1 points while the Tigers average 80.1 points.
So why get involved in this track meet? 

Because Missouri is the superior team. I largely base this opinion on the quality of opponents each team has played. Utah State finishing second in the Mountain West Conference doesn't impress me as much as Missouri finishing fourth in the SEC. Missouri also has a number of significant victories that Utah State lacks. 

The Tigers have the potential to go far in this tournament. Something I can't envision for Utah State. 

Missouri struggled against high-level, elite talent teams such as Alabama and Kansas. Utah State isn't nearly in that class. The Tigers scored numerous impressive victories that Utah State didn't achieve. I point to the Tigers scoring 93 points in an 18-point neutral court win against Illinois, scoring 78 points in a 17-point win against Iowa State and beating Tennessee twice, including posting 86 points against the Volunteers on the road. 

Missouri is 22-0 this season when scoring at least 70 points. Utah State allows an average of 70 points a game. The Aggies also rank 294th in defensive 3-point percentage. Missouri can exploit that. 

Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State.

The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.

Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival.

The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points.

Credit to Southeast Missouri State capturing the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as a No. 5 seed. But I don't see the Redhawks getting past Texas A&M Corpus Christi.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is hot, winning 12 of its last 13 games, and are battle tested. The Islanders captured the Southland Conference Tournament title for the second year in a row. They also won the regular season championship. Southeast Missouri State last made the NCAA Tournament 23 years ago.

Both teams play fast and can score. The big difference is at the free throw line. Southeast Missouri State ranks 226th in free throw percentage. The Islanders rank fifth in the nation in free throw percentage at 79.1 percent.

I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. 

Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points.

Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game.

The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points.

Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation.

A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points.

Santa Barbara is riding a lot of momentum and had the easier path to reach this game. The Gauchos have won their last six games going 5-0-1 ATS.

Cal-State Fullerton had to go overtime to beat Hawaii this past Thursday and then upset Cal-Irvine in a tough game last night. 

These teams are close defensively, but the Gauchos shoot the ball far better than the Titans. 

I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. 

Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. 

Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. 
Grand Canyon was three games worse than Sam Houston State during the Western Athletic Conference regular season. The Lopes are 22-11 on the season. 

Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.  

Washington State is peaking at the right time. The Cougars have won their last seven games. I like their chances against Oregon, which hasn't played in five days, in this Pac-12 Conference Tournament matchup.

Oregon has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 neutral site games.

The teams just met on Feb. 19 at Washington State and the Cougars won, 68-65.

Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road.

I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas.

Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games.

San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team.

Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside.

I get that it's been a very disappointing season for Wisconsin, who are 17-13 and went 9-11 in the Big Ten. But the Badgers underdogs to Ohio State? No way.

The Buckeyes are 13-18, 5-15 in the Big Ten. They had a prolonged stretch where they went 1-14 in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes aren't winning five games in five days through the Big Ten Conference Tournament gauntlet to make the NCAA Tournament - and they know it.

Wisconsin is capable of beating any team, something Ohio State isn't. The Badgers defeated sixth-ranked Marquette and took third-ranked Kansas to overtime. The Badgers are a bubble team. They know they must win at least the next three games to stay in realistic contention for an NCAA Tournament bid.

The Badgers have an elite defense, giving up 63.8 points. That ranks them 33rd in the nation and is six points fewer per game than Ohio State allows.

Wisconsin holds a big coaching edge, too, with Greg Gard against Chris Holtmann.

The teams met once during the regular season. The Badgers beat the Buckeyes, 65-60, at Ohio State. Now they're playing at a neutral site.

Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible.

Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament.

Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court.

The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road.

Barring the unlikely possibility of winning the Big Ten Conference Tournament, Wisconsin better win this game if it has any chance of earning an NCAA Tourney bid.

The Badgers are 16-13 with a lot of close losses, including a 63-61 home loss to fifth-ranked Purdue this past Thursday.

Wisconsin should take care of business against Minnesota, a team it has defeated 14 of the last 16 times, including the past five. The Badgers are 5-0 ATS following a loss.

Minnesota, 2-16 in the Big Ten, is in a rare fat-and-happy mood having ended a 12-game losing streak with a 75-74 home upset win against Rutgers this past Thursday.

Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday.

If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games.

So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada.

The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory.

I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup.

UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31.

The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks.

UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell.

Mercer has become much improved defensively. So this is a good matchup for the Bears because The Citadel is very bad offensively and not good either on defense giving up nearly 75 points a game.

The teams just met on Feb. 25. Mercer held the Bulldogs to 50 points in a 22-point victory. Mercer also defeated The Citadel in the first meeting, 74-65, on the road.

It's clear who the better team is here.

Cal Irvine is 36 teams above UC Riverside in the KenPom rankings. I agree with that assessment. I have the Anteaters as the better team, too. They destroyed the Highlanders, 83-64, as 6 1/2-point home favorites on Feb. 11. 

Cal Irvine has the second-best offense in the Big West and surrenders fewer points per game than UC Riverside. 

The Anteaters also have dominated the Highlanders winning and covering during the past five meetings. They've also gone 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS the last eight times when playing at UC Riverside. 

Rider is a much better team than St. Peter's. Rider is 12-6 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference while St. Peter's is 6-12 in league.

It's not just the conference records either. The Broncos buried the Peacocks, 82-61, at home on Feb. 3.

Both teams are tough defensively. But St. Peter's can't score. The Peacocks average 61.3 points a game, which ranks 354th. They also are 362nd in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point shooting percentage in addition to being well below average in free throw shooting.

I'm not putting any stock in St. Peter's being home either. The Peacocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests while Rider has covered its last five away games.

If you're into bad Atlantic 10 Conference games then this is a good matchup. I'm involved because I don't believe St. Joe's should be a home 'dog to Richmond.

The Spiders could have the worst offense in the A-10. They also are terrible on the road failing to cover in 10 of their last 11 away games. Overall, Richmond is 2-10 ATS in its past dozen games. 

St. Joe's, by contrast, is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Hawks outscore the Spiders and do a good job of not turning the ball over. They often are undervalued, like this time, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. 

The Big South Conference Tournament isn't exactly a big deal. But good spots can be found. This is one of them as High Point is playing much better than Charleston Southern and is the superior team so the price certainly is right to back the Panthers.

High Point brings momentum into the tournament winning four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS.

That's not the case for Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers are 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.

Charleston Southern is the worst defensive team in the Big South. How bad defensively are the Buccaneers? They rank 304th in scoring defense nationally, 328th in defensive field goal percentage and 330th in 3-point defense.

The Panthers are 9-2 ATS the past 11 times when facing a below .400 opponent, which the 9-20 Buccaneers are. High Point beat Charleston Southern, 81-73, at home when the teams last played on Feb. 6.

This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63.

Now look at the line.

This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games.

The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games.

The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category.

Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this.

So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12.

Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three.

The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense.

Just three games ago, Nevada handled Fresno State winning, 77-66, as a nine-point home favorite. Fresno State is playing better and is home. But the point spread is still too short.

Fresno State only averages 61.7 points. That's 351st. Nevada should reach 70 points just like it did two weeks ago against the Bulldogs. Fresno State is 1-6 when giving up 70-plus points.

The Bulldogs' key is their pressure defense. They rank second in the Mountain West Conference in creating takeaways. Nevada, however, ranks 27th in the nation in fewest turnover percentage. They turned the ball over just 10 times in the first meeting against the Bulldogs.

After two close calls in their last two games, look for Virginia to cover this point spread margin with a double-digit victory.

Boston College is in a letdown spot after an upset road win against Florida State.

The Cavaliers have dominated this series winning 10 of the last 11 times, including 76-57 on Jan. 28.

This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points.

Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close.

Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory.

Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here.

Since upsetting Tennessee, Missouri has lost and failed to cover its last two games. Mississippi State is just as good - if not better - than the Tigers. So I'll take the Bulldogs getting this many points.

The Bulldogs have come on after a slow SEC start to go 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven league games, including posting road victories against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi during their last three SEC away games. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their past five road contests.

The teams met on Feb. 4 and Mississippi State held Missouri to a season-low in points in a 63-52 home victory. Take away their victory against Tennessee and the Tigers would be 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately.

The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. 

I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. 

Delaware State defeated South Carolina State, 88-85, in overtime on the road in the first meeting on Jan. 23. Now the Bulldogs have to travel to Dover to play the Hornets.

I like Delaware State's chances at this number considering South Carolina State has lost 11 consecutive road games. The Bulldogs have lost their past three away contests by an average of 18.6 points.

The Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. They give up nine fewer points per game than South Carolina State.

I find this line short so I'm backing Howard, which has won nine in a row. The Bison have covered all but one of these games during their win streak.

Morgan State is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games. The Bears have failed to cover in five of their last six games.

This has been a road team series with the visitor cashing seven of the last eight times.

Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos.

So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State.

The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference.

UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games.

Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line.

The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11.

Going to the added board for this one. 

Both teams are playing well. But I see Penn having the greater urgency being in revenge mode and trailing Yale by one game in the Ivy League standing.

The Quakers have won their last five games. They are 4-1-1 ATS during their past six games and have the best player on the court, Jordan Dingle. He leads the Ivy League in scoring by a wide margin at 24 points per game.

Penn has revenge for a 70-63 loss to Yale earlier this season. I make the game pick, so getting this many points is a bonus and puts me in play.

Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams.

The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28.

SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC.

The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game.

I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made.

I am getting behind New Mexico. The Lobos are in stop-the-pain mode having dropped three in a row. This is their time to get right hosting 7-17 Wyoming, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference.

Wyoming has lost and failed to cover in its last three games suffering double-digit defeats to San Jose State, UNLV and Boise State during this span. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. New Mexico is 5-1 ATS the last six times hosting opponents with a road percentage of less than .400.

The Cowboys rank 249th in scoring defense and 311th in defensive field goal percentage. That's bad news going against the high-scoring Lobos. New Mexico averages 81.6 points a game, which ranks 16th in the nation. The Lobos also are 11th in the country in field goal percentage.

Illinois is stepping up, winning eight of its last 10 games. But Penn State is tough at home and this is a circle-the-wagons game for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State has dropped four in a row. The latest being a loss - but a cover - in a road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Nittany Lions have won seven of their last eight home games. During this span, the Nittany Lions have defeated Michigan, Indiana and Iowa. Their lone home defeat during this time frame was to Wisconsin in overtime.

The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS following a loss.

Penn State should play the Illini with confidence. The Nittany Lions won the first matchup, winning by 15 points on the road in mid-December.

Given how bad SMU is on the road, I find this line to be short. Wichita State is the superior team and home. That's huge because SMU is 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS away from home this season.

The Mustangs average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank among the bottom 50 teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point shooting.

Wichita State is 14th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage.

The Shockers have defeated the Mustangs six consecutive times, including 73-65 on the road last month.

Much respect to Northwestern for its 17-7 season. But I don't see the Wildcats keeping this one close against top-ranked 23-2 Purdue. 
The Boilermakers haven't lost to Northwestern in nine years, winning the past 11 games. 

Purdue has too much balance and depth for the Wildcats. Led by 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the Boilermakers are serious contenders to win the national championship. Northwestern is nowhere near that level. 

Beating disappointing Wisconsin and Ohio State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games, during the past week on the road does not elevate the Wildcats into elite atmosphere. 

Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number?

I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times.

Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game.

The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home.

Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring  opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. 

Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. 

The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. 

Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. 

The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. 

Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday.

Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games.

This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996.

The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa.

Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent.

San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example.

Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games.

Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team.

Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. 

Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games.

Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. 

Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. 

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes.

Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents.

The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points.

Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno.

The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.