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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-28-21	Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5		85-66	Loss	-110	16 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to step in against Morehead State, which has won seven in a row. I don't trust the Eagles' offense on the road. Morehead State ranks 295th in scoring at 65.6 points a game. Jacksonville State averages nine points more per game than Morehead State. The Gamecocks also have been playing well defeating Murray State and Austin Peay in their last two games. Both of those were road contests and the Gamecocks were underdogs. The Gamecocks are averaging 84 points during their last three games. The teams met on Jan. 9 and Morehead State escaped with a 56-55 win as a 3-point home 'dog. Jacksonville State shot just 33 percent from the floor in that game while missing 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. Morehead State shot 40 percent from the floor in its narrow win. So the Gamecocks have revenge as added incentive.
01-27-21	Utah State -6 v. UNLV	Top	83-74	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge. UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State. The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers. Expect Utah State to play much better.
01-25-21	Arizona State v. Arizona -4.5		67-80	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
Arizona State has been a major disappointment in the Pac-12 with a 1-4 league mark and 4-7 overall record. Much of this can be blamed on COVID-19. The pandemic has played havoc with the Sun Devils' schedule causing four postponements and one cancellation. The Sun Devils, though, were up for this past Thursday's game against in-state and conference rival Arizona. They led the Wildcats by six points with 3:40 left before losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer as 2 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the scene shifts to Tucson where Arizona gets to host Arizona State. The Wildcats took the Sun Devils' best punch. Arizona State wasn't happy about the officiating, but it got to shoot 12 more free throws than Arizona. The Sun Devils also made 11 of 21 3-point shots for 52 percent. Arizona also shot well from beyond the arc. But the Wildcats are much more proficient from 3-point range than the Sun Devils, who shoot 33.2 percent from there. The Wildcats are the superior team. They are 11-3 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12. I don't see Arizona letting an 11-point lead slip like it did in the last meeting. I also don't envision the Sun Devils playing as well as they did on Thursday. ASU is 1-8 ATS following a loss and this last one was very tough to take. The Sun Devils also are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road contests.
01-23-21	St. Mary's +3 v. San Francisco		67-63	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8. The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three. The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga. St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win.
01-23-21	McNeese State +3 v. Houston Baptist		74-71	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup. McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points. Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games.
01-23-21	West Virginia v. Kansas State +11.5		69-47	Loss	-105	10 h 57 m	Show
Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time. The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time. West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups.
01-23-21	Kansas -1 v. Oklahoma		68-75	Loss	-114	8 h 14 m	Show
Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons. Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma. The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12. The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark.
01-21-21	Eastern Washington -3.5 v. Northern Colorado		76-78	Loss	-104	16 h 22 m	Show
Look for a strong bounce back from Eastern Washington after it lost 99-94 to Southern Utah as 5-point home favorites this past Saturday. The Eagles are in the argument for being the best team in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has failed to step up at home losing to Montana State and Idaho. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their lined home games this season. One factor for this could be extremely limited seat capacity, which negates some of their home-court edge. Eastern Washington has a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging between 11 and 16 points a game. The Eagles outscore the Bears by an average of nearly six points per game. The Eagles also have covered seven of their past eight away contests.
01-21-21	Wichita State +3 v. Memphis		52-72	Loss	-103	15 h 48 m	Show
Memphis has played just once since Dec. 29 and it lost, 58-57, to Tulsa this past Sunday. The Tigers have outstanding talent, but I'm far from sold on the coaching of Penny Hardaway. Memphis has failed to cover in its last seven games. Memphis was thought to be among the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference before the season, but the Tigers are 6-5 and 2-2 in league. Wichita State is 8-3 and 4-1 in the AAC. The Shockers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and have a tremendous ATS road mark going 19-7-1 in their past 27 away contests. They have the perimeter defense to pull the outright upset ranking 12th in the nation in 3-point defense and they also rank in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage.
01-21-21	San Jose State v. New Mexico -6		51-67	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
First, note this game is being played at Dixie State University in St. George, Utah. So technically it's not a true home game for New Mexico. The Lobos have been forced to travel and settle in various locations such as Las Vegas, Lubbock, Texas and St. George - their current home away from home - so they are far more familiar with this setting than San Jose State. Games are not being allowed in New Mexico due to COVID-19. All of this has made for a frustrating season for the 4-8 Lobos, who are 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference. Now, though, the Lobos draw a patsy in which to vent their frustrations. San Jose State is 2-10 and also 0-8 in the MWC. The Spartans turned around their football woes, but not their basketball ones. If you had gone against the Spartans in their last 60 games you would be winning at a 68 percent rate. New Mexico has been very good in this role going 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus foes with a win percentage below .400. The Lobos have many flaws, including lack of rebounding and committing too many turnovers. Better shooting would cure some of that and San Jose State has the worst defense in the MTW. The Spartans are one of the worst defensive teams not just in conference, but in the nation surrendering 86.3 points a game. New Mexico gives up 15 fewer points per game than the Spartans.
01-20-21	Abilene Christian v. Sam Houston State +3.5		57-64	Win	100	14 h 32 m	Show
Sam Houston State has the best conference record in the Southland at 5-0. I'm not buying that Abilene Christian is better. Each team has 11 victories. Sam Houston State is 7-1 at home. The Bearkats average 82.8 points and have the best player on the court in Zach Nutall, who averages 20.4 points. Abilene Christian is one game above .500 on the road. The Wildcats average eight fewer points per game than Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State has covered in each of its last eight lined games.
01-20-21	Tulsa +12 v. Houston		59-86	Loss	-110	12 h 58 m	Show
OK, I get this is a monster revenge spot for eighth-ranked Houston. The Cougars suffered their lone loss, 65-64, on the road to Tulsa on Dec. 29. The Cougars have the No. 2 defense in the country surrendering just 56.5 points. But Tulsa is deserving of far more respect than this overpriced line. The Golden Hurricane rank 16th in the nation defensively allowing just 60.9 points a game. So obviously we have a very low total where points are going to be extremely hard to come by. Tulsa has the guard play and can score enough in the paint to keep things close. The Golden Hurricane bounced back after their annual road loss to Wichita State by beating Memphis as a short 'dog this past Sunday. That shows me they aren't a team to fall apart. Their defense will keep them in this game while their offense scores enough to keep them well within this inflated number.
01-20-21	Northwestern State v. Stephen F Austin -13.5		74-86	Loss	-111	11 h 30 m	Show
Yes, this is a mismatch. The betting line reflects that. It just doesn't reflect that enough. Stephen F. Austin averages 81.7 points per game. The Lumberjacks have the second-best shooting percentage in the country at 53.5 percent. Northwestern State gives up 82.2 points per game, which ranks 336th in the nation. It's a big reason why the Demons are 2-13 on the season, including 1-10 on the road. The Lumberjacks come up with nearly 10 steals per game. They also are a strong rebounding team. Northwestern lacks firepower. The Demons don't have anyone who averages even 13 points a game and only two players average more than 10 points for them.
01-19-21	Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova	Top	74-76	Win	100	14 h 56 m	Show
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty. The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel. Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games.
01-18-21	Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -4.5		50-59	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
Prairie View A&M has only played six games. But the Panthers' last three games were against major conference foes Louisville, Washington State and TCU. Before meeting those schools, the Panthers defeated Evansville of the well-respected Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS on the season. Grambling State isn't that good. The Tigers lack highly skilled ballhandlers, which makes them vulnerable to Prairie View A&M's defensive pressure.
01-18-21	The Citadel +13.5 v. NC-Greensboro		73-87	Loss	-110	11 h 14 m	Show
I'm going to take this many points with The Citadel, who average 93.3 points a game. That's No. 2 in the nation. The Bulldogs also are No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 43.1 percent. UNC Greensboro, by contrast, ranks 308th in field goal percentage and is 329th in 3-point shooting at 28.2 percent. The Spartans are not a strong defensive rebounding team so the Bulldogs could be getting second chance points, too. The Spartans have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home contests.
01-18-21	VMI +7.5 v. East Tennessee State		81-92	Loss	-107	11 h 10 m	Show
VMI averages 23 more points per game than East Tennessee State. The Keydets have produced an average of 90.6 points during their last three games. They have a standout senior guard in Greg Parham, who averages 18.4 points. I certainly believe the Keydets can hang in against East Tennessee State, which has yielded at least 78 points in three of its last four games. The Buccaneers also commit around 16 turnovers per game. VMI is the fifth-best free throw shooting team in the country, too, making 82.1 percent of its free throws.
01-17-21	Memphis v. Tulsa +2		57-58	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
Tulsa destroyed Memphis, 80-40, last Jan. 22. The Tigers had their opportunity to gain revenge at home when they hosted the Golden Hurricane on Dec. 21 and lost again, 56-49. Now the Tigers will try to beat Tulsa on the road having not played since Dec. 29 because of three straight games postponed due to COVID. Tulsa had been playing well with six consecutive victories and covers in each of their last five lined games. But the Golden Hurricane couldn't overcome their road jinx against Wichita State in their last game, getting hammered, 72-53, this past Wednesday. I see the Golden Hurricane bouncing back at home against a foe that has not been able to beat them. Tulsa has covered 10 of its last 14 home games.
01-17-21	Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Marshall		69-67	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
Western Kentucky came through on Friday beating Marshall, 81-73, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. Now the Hilltoppers go on the road against Marshall and are now underdogs. I don't think Marshall is the better team. So I'll accept these points. Western Kentucky surrenders fewer points per game than Marshall. The Hilltoppers rank sixth in the nation in free throw percentage at 80.5 percent. Free throws were the big story in Friday's game. The Hilltoppers made 19 of 21 while Marshall hit two of five. Why such a large free throw discrepancy? Did Marshall get homered? I don't know, but it's just another plus in the Hilltoppers' favor that they get to the free throw line far more than Marshall - and they rarely miss when they do get there.
01-17-21	Hofstra v. Delaware +3		68-67	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
Delaware defeated Hofstra, 74-56, at home two days ago in a matchup of two middle-of-the-pack Colonial Athletic Association teams. I didn't find anything unusual in that victory. The Blue Hens have been playing better since conference play began. They outrebounded the Pride, 40-29. So I'll take points with them in a home 'dog role. The Blue Hens have given up just 64 points per game in four Colonial Athletic Association games.They rank first in the league in two-point defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in overall defensive field goal percentage. Hofstra didn't shoot well against Delaware on Friday. But that shouldn't be surprising as Delaware has limited foes to 40.9 percent field goal shooting during its past five games. The Pride rank 225th in the country in field goal percentage at 43 percent.
01-16-21	NJIT +3 v. Albany		75-83	Loss	-115	7 h 52 m	Show
I find value in this America East Conference matchup of two weak offenses where even one point matters. New Jersey Tech is 4-4. Albany is 1-5. The Great Danes haven't scored more than 66 points once this season. They also have covered only 28 percent of their past 42 home games.
01-16-21	Wofford v. Chattanooga +2		77-59	Loss	-105	3 h 10 m	Show
There are 13 teams in the country with 11 or more wins. UT Chattanooga is one of them. The Mocs have been a hot spread team going back to last season compiling a 14-5-1 ATS mark in their last 20 lined contests. This includes an 8-2-1 ATS record versus above .500 foes. Wofford relies heavily on freshmen in contrast to Chattanooga, which is senior dominated. That could prove telling for the Terriers in this road matchup. Wofford has allowed 78 or more points in three of its last four games. The Mocs are averaging 79 points in their five Southern Conference games.
01-15-21	Wisconsin v. Rutgers +3.5		60-54	Loss	-110	14 h 20 m	Show
Points aren't going to come easily with these two defensive-minded, hard-nosed half-court teams. So I'm attracted to grabbing points. Wisconsin has had trouble when playing at Rutgers losing the past two times there, including, 72-65, last season. I don't want to overreact to the Badgers' embarrassing 23-point road loss to Michigan this past Tuesday. But the Badgers did trail by 40 points. A game like that can't help their confidence when playing on the road. Rutgers' guard Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer on the court averaging 20 points. The thing I really like about Harper is he has the 13th lowest individual turnover ratio in the country. The Scarlet Knights have the 10th lowest turnover rate in the nation. So Wisconsin shouldn't be getting any easy baskets.
01-15-21	Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo	Top	76-69	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home. Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge. Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.
01-15-21	Niagara v. Manhattan +2.5		49-58	Win	100	10 h 32 m	Show
Neither team has much offense. But Manhattan is the better offensive rebounding team, forces more turnovers and has the best player on the court with Ant Nelson. The Jaspers also have dominated Niagara at home winning eight of the past nine times hosting the Purple Eagles, including the last five. Manhattan's average victory margin during these five home wins against Niagara is nine points.
01-14-21	Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho		74-54	Win	100	18 h 18 m	Show
Northern Colorado is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Sky Conference that has owned Idaho beating them the past six times.The Bears' average winning margin in these games is 20 points. Everybody in the Big Sky beats Idaho. The Vandals are one of the worst teams in the country. They are winless in nine games and 0-6 in the Big Sky. Northern Colorado is 8-1 ATS the last nine times taking on foes with a winning percentage below 40 percent. Bodie Hume gives Northern Colorado the best player on the court. The Bears give up 10 points fewer per game than Idaho, which is 1-8 ATS in its past nine home contests.
01-13-21	New Mexico v. Dixie State +3		72-63	Loss	-115	16 h 24 m	Show
Maybe New Mexico's nickname should be changed from the Lobos to the Hobos. Headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico has been on the road much of the season because of COVID-19 issues. The Lobos had been temporarily living in a hotel and working out of rented gyms in the Lubbock area of West Texas. Now the Lobos are leaving Lubbock to set up shop for two weeks in St. George, Utah. Before they get settled there, though, it was decided they would play Dixie State, which is in its first year of Division I basketball. The Trailblazers are 4-2 competing in the Western Athletic Conference. One of those two losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga on the road, 112-67. The Trailblazers are motivated to knock off this Mountain West Conference opponent. New Mexico has gotten destroyed in Mountain West play losing all six of its games with its average loss being 25.5 points. The Lobos have failed to cover any of these six games. The Lobos have been one of the worst ATS road teams covering only 33 percent of their last 76 away games. New Mexico has 12 new players on its roster. They started the second half of their last game, an 82-46 loss to Utah State in Lubbock this past Friday, with four freshmen. Lobos coach Paul Weir might use this non-conference game to continue the team's youth movement.
01-13-21	Rhode Island v. Massachusetts +3		78-80	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
I'm not buying Rhode Island as a road favorite in this Atlantic-10 Conference grudge matchup. UMass is a dominant 20-6-1 ATS (77 percent) in its last 27 home contests. The Minutemen average 13 points more per game than Rhode Island. UMass also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Tre Mitchell, who is averaging 20.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Mitchell leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring while ranking ninth in rebounding. Mitchell averaged 31 points in two games against the Rams last season hitting 23 of 35 shots from the floor. UMass covered both of its games last season against Rhode Island, including a 64-63 loss as 3-point home 'dogs. Rhode Island is playing at a different venue for the fourth straight game. The Rams were supposed to get a seven-day break after their 83-68 upset road victory against VCU this past Saturday as this game originally was scheduled for Feb. 27. But it was moved to today.
01-13-21	Tulsa +4.5 v. Wichita State	Top	53-72	Loss	-110	15 h 50 m	Show
Wichita State defeated Tulsa, 69-65, as a short road underdog a month ago. Tulsa wasn't playing that well back in mid-December breaking in new players and coming off a 10-day layoff caused by COVID-19. Tulsa had only one day of practice before that game and was out of sync. That was back then. Since that defeat to Wichita State, the Golden Hurricane have won six in a row covering all five of their lined games during this span. Tulsa has defeated four opponents picked to finish above them in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll. Tulsa is 3-0 in road games and has had a week to rest and prepare for this revenge matchup after its scheduled home game this past Saturday against Central Florida was postponed because of COVID issues on the UCF team. The Golden Hurricane have caused scoring problems for foes with their matchup zone defense. Only 13 teams give up fewer points per game than Tulsa, which also ranks fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Wichita State is not a good shooting team. The Shockers rank 290th in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent and are 224th in free throw percentage at 68.5 percent.
01-12-21	Cal-Riverside +15 v. USC	Top	62-67	Win	100	13 h 9 m	Show
Cal-Riverside is good enough to hang in against USC especially with the Trojans banged-up in the backcourt and in a flat spot. USC has played four straight Pac-12 games. This is its only remaining non-league regular season game. The Trojans just returned home after a satisfying Arizona trip beating Arizona this past Thursday and Arizona State this past Saturday. Letting down against a Big West Conference team is a real possibility for USC. Riverside has decent size and will play slow. The Highlanders should have plenty of energy and motivation stepping up in class. This is just their third game since Dec. 10. Riverside surrendered 88 points to Hawaii this past Friday. However, that was the Highlanders' first game in nearly a month. If you discount that matchup, the Highlanders are giving up an average of 57.8 points in their other five games. They own a 57-42 victory over Washington, a Pac-12 team, on a neutral court.
01-12-21	Eastern Michigan +11 v. Toledo		63-96	Loss	-110	11 h 10 m	Show
Toledo could be the best team in the Mid-American Conference. But I see a buy sign on Eastern Michigan after the Eagles upset Akron as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs, 71-59, this past Saturday. Akron averages nearly 80 points a game. So the Eagles should enter this matchup with confidence. They have a good backcourt with Bryce McBride and Yeikson Montero. They combine to average nearly 30 points a game. Toledo has a bigger game on deck when it plays at Akron on Sunday. Akron is tied for the second-best record in the MAC. The Rockets are 5-11 ATS against opponents with a losing record.
01-12-21	Miami-FL v. Boston College +3		62-84	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
Don't be scared off by Boston College's 2-9 record. The Eagles have played a murderous schedule and are in circle-the-wagons mode to halt a four-game losing streak and win their first ACC game of the season. This is their chance at home before going on the road for consecutive away contests. The Eagles lost to Duke by one point. Fell in overtime to Minnesota. Led Villanova by nine points before losing. Boston College lost 61-49 to Virginia this past Saturday. Wynston Tabbs, BC's leading scorer, was held scoreless in the loss to Virginia going 0-for-9 from the floor. Miami gives up eight points more per game than Virginia. Miami is a terrible 3-point shooting team and below average in free throw shooting. The Hurricanes could be without their starting backcourt, too. Chris Lykes, who led Miami in scoring last season, has been out with an ankle injury and Kameron McGusty is questionable with a hamstring injury.
01-11-21	Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State		58-48	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Indiana State upset Loyola of Chicago, 76-71, as 8-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Loyola, which ranks eighth in the country in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage, had an off-shooting game. The Ramblers shot 43 percent from the field and missed 18 of 27 3-point shots. Indiana State, which ranks 256th in field goal percentage and 200th in 3-point percentage, shot 44 percent from the floor and made 8 of 18 3-pointers. The Sycamores received 31 points from Tyreke Key, which is 16 points above his season scoring average. The Ramblers had won and covered their previous three games. I see them bouncing back in this short revenge spot. I expect them to shoot more like their normal selves while Key comes back to Earth.
01-10-21	Radford v. Charleston Southern +3.5		68-48	Loss	-108	6 h 4 m	Show
I'm not convinced Radford should be laying road points despite the Highlanders beating Charleston Southern, 79-64. Radford shot 54 percent from the floor and shot eight more free throws than the Buccaneers, who shot just 37 percent from the floor. Radford plays good defense, but the Highlanders only average 66 points. That's the same number of points Charleston Southern scores per game. Charleston Southern has the best player on the court in Phlandrous Fleming Jr. He averages 20 points a game. Nobody on Radford even averages 12 points a game.
01-10-21	Morgan State +3 v. Norfolk State		85-89	Loss	-108	4 h 5 m	Show
Morgan State has won and covered all five of its board games this season. This includes a 78-74 victory against Norfolk State yesterday. The Bears shot just 38 percent from the field, but held Norfolk State to 34.9 percent shooting from the floor. It was the fourth consecutive time the 'dog has covered in this series. Morgan State has a better record than Norfolk State and has covered the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Bears have outscored their opponents by an average of seven points during their last seven road contests.
01-10-21	Hartford +4 v. UMass Lowell		75-58	Win	100	3 h 6 m	Show
Hartford has a better record than UMass Lowell and short revenge for a 71-62 loss on Saturday. Lowell shot 53.2 percent from the floor in that victory and made 10 more free throws than Hartford, which shot 48 percent from the floor. Lowell's season shooting percentage from the field is 44.2 percent. Lowell is 5-11 ATS as a home favorite while Hartford has covered 10 of its past 14 road contests.
01-09-21	Lafayette +3 v. Bucknell		83-60	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
Sometimes you really have to dig to find a false favorite. When found it usually is a home team from a small conference that fits the bill. Bucknell opened a favorite against Lafayette in this Patriot League matchup. Bingo. The 0-2 Bisons shoot 35.1 percent from the floor and average 64.5 points a game. Lafayette averages 85.5 points a game and shoots 45 percent from the field. Lafayette has been a proven road money-maker going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role.
01-09-21	Delaware +2.5 v. William & Mary		62-67	Loss	-110	6 h 18 m	Show
Neither team shoots well. Each team is averaging just 65 points a game. Delaware, however, gives up five fewer points per game than the Tribe. William & Mary is on a four-game losing streak and has yet to win a game in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. The Tribe are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games. I think Delaware is the superior team. So getting points is a bonus.
01-09-21	Idaho State v. Northern Arizona +1.5		76-70	Loss	-118	6 h 17 m	Show
These are two bad Big Sky Conference teams. Northern Arizona hosted Idaho State just two days ago and was a 3-point favorite. The Lumberjacks lost, 73-69. So now Northern Arizona finds itself opening as a home 'dog. I'm not buying it. The Lumberjacks have short home revenge and the best player on the court, Cameron Shelton. He averages 21.6 points and 5.5 rebounds. Idaho State beat Northern Arizona because it shot 46 percent from the floor and made 22 of 26 free throws. Northern Arizona shot 40 percent from the field and shot 17 free throws, nine fewer than Idaho State. The Lumberjacks aren't a good shooting team, but I see them getting their revenge.
01-09-21	Texas +2 v. West Virginia		72-70	Win	100	5 h 15 m	Show
Shaka Smart has something going at Texas. The Longhorns are 9-1 and just beat Iowa State, 78-72, at home in a letdown spot this past Tuesday following a monster 25-point road victory against Kansas. Even though West Virginia is the home team, the Mountaineers still could be gasping for breath after coming from 19 points down with 11 minutes to play to pull out an 87-84 road victory against Oklahoma State this past Monday. Making the situation more difficult for the Mountaineers is they are dealing with a flu bug and Derek Culver, their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, is banged-up.
01-08-21	Lipscomb +2.5 v. Bellarmine		77-72	Win	100	10 h 13 m	Show
Wrong team favored. Lipscomb was the preseason favorite to win the Atlantic Sun Conference this season. So I don't see why Bellarmine should be even a slight favorite even being home. Bellarmine's 90-38 victory over some school named Mount St. Joseph in its last game does not impress. The Bisons have the league's preseason Player of the Year in center Ahsan Asadullah. Lipscomb is coming off a split against Liberty, which has the best overall record in the Atlantic Sun. That's far stronger competition than Mount St. Joseph.
01-08-21	Central Connecticut State v. Bryant -12.5	Top	64-76	Loss	-108	6 h 46 m	Show
Bryant buried Central Connecticut State on Thursday, 93-68. That score wasn't some fluke. Bryant is far superior. This class difference showed up on the boards and on the scoreboard. The Bulldogs put up 93 points, which is no big deal. They average 92.3 points per game, which is third-best in the nation. They have by far the best record in the Northeast Conference at 8-2, going 8-1 ATEarn a tidy profit before even sitting down for Friday dinner courtesy of basketball guru Stephen Nover, who was 2-0 on his Thursday college basketball plays pushing his three-year CBB mark to 146-105-5! Stephen has feasted on mispriced small conference matchups just like this one. This is his strongest small conference early-game play this season - and it's specially discounted! So take advantage and score a big reward. S in their lined games. CCS is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine tries as an underdog. The Blue Devils average 18 fewer points per game than Bryant.
01-07-21	Mt. St. Mary's v. St Francis NY +2		55-70	Win	100	6 h 43 m	Show
I have found a wrong favorite in a Northeast Conference game. I don't believe Mount St. Mary's should be road chalk aaginst St. Francis of Brooklyn. St. Francis is a terrible defensive team. But the Terriers also outscore Mount St. Mary's by more than 16 points per game. The Mountaineers average only 61.4 points. The Terriers are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times as a home 'dog. Mount St. Mary's is 2-7-1 ATS in its past 10 road contests and 1-5 ATS the last six times as an away favorite. Mount St. Mary's also has had to deal with a tough COVID-19 situation missing nearly a month because of issues related to it. The Mountaineers haven't played since Dec. 8. St. Francis last played on Dec. 23 so it shouldn't be as rusty.
01-06-21	Virginia Tech v. Louisville -4		71-73	Loss	-110	13 h 59 m	Show
Death, taxes and Louisville defeating Virginia Tech. The Cardinals have beaten Virginia Tech 16 straight times. Look for that streak to continue. Louisville is 5-0 at home. The Cardinals are playing well and have the shooters to take advantage of the Hokies' below-average 3-point defense. Virginia Tech hasn't played in more than a week because it's scheduled game against Virginia for this past Saturday was postponed because of COVID-19 issues on the Cavaliers' side. Not only will the Hokies be rusty, but this is their first game away from Blacksburg since Nov. 29 and first true road game. They've played seven of their nine games at home with the other two being at neutral sites. Virginia Tech has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups.
01-05-21	Florida +2.5 v. Alabama	Top	71-86	Loss	-101	13 h 13 m	Show
The last time I got involved in a Florida basketball game was taking 3 points with the Gators on the road against Florida State back on Dec. 12. Things looked good for Florida early. The Gators were leading the Seminoles, 11-3, when Florida State called a time-out. It was at that point Keyontae Johnson, the Gators' star player and preseason pick for SEC Player of the Year honors, collapsed on the court. The Gators obviously were shaken as Johnson was taken to the hospital. They went on to lose, 83-71. Johnson was hospitalized for 10 days. Florida postponed its next four games. Johnson is back with the Gators, although he's not playing. He's helping coach the team. The Gators have played twice since Johnson's collapse beating Vanderbilt, 90-72, on the road and nipped LSU, 83-79, at home this past Saturday. So Florida knows first-hand about adversity this season. The Gators have regained their focus. They can beat Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are coming off a huge road win against seventh-ranked Tennessee from this past Saturday night. Alabama beat Tennessee, 71-63, as 10 1/2-point 'dogs. It was the Crimson Tide's first road victory versus a top-10 team in 16 years. So there could be a letdown factor for Alabama even though this is an important SEC battle.
01-03-21	UMKC +3.5 v. North Dakota		77-53	Win	100	7 h 9 m	Show
These teams met on Saturday with North Dakota winning, 52-45. I can envision another low-scoring game so I'll take the points in this quick revenge setup. UMKC shot 35 percent from the floor, made 2 of 12 3-pointers and missed 7 of 14 free throws against North Dakota. The Roos on the season average 76.9 points, shoot 53.5 percent from the floor and make 57.3 percent of their free throws. This has come against inferior competition. But the Roos still should shoot much better in this rematch. North Dakota only averages 61 points on the season. The Fighting Hawks shoot 40.8 percent (286nd in the nation) from the floor and hit 28.3 percent (300th) of their 3-point shots. So they aren't a very good offensive team. They aren't very good at all being 2-8. They also got to shoot 29 free throws to UMKC's 14 on Saturday. Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. North Dakota is 2-7 ATS following a win.
01-01-21	Arkansas State +3 v. Louisiana-Monroe		72-84	Loss	-110	15 h 30 m	Show
Arkansas State should be able to pull the outright upset with a decent frontcourt and UL Monroe's lack of scoring. The Warhawks average just 63.6 points per game, which ranks 301st in the country. Arkansas State has played weak competition, but the Red Wolves average nearly 13 points more per contest than Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks were bad last season especially on the offensive side and they are bad again this season shooting 39.5 percent from the field, which ranks 302nd.
12-31-20	Northern Arizona v. Idaho +3.5		78-65	Loss	-110	15 h 56 m	Show
This is a bad versus bad Big Sky Conference matchup. So backing the home underdog makes sense especially given the situation and style of play. Northern Arizona is 1-6. The Lumberjacks play slow, are weak inside and can't shoot from the outside. Not exactly a good combination. They average just 58.6 points. So how bad is Idaho to be a home 'dog to this opponent? The Vandals are 0-5. But all of their games have been on the road. This is their first home game and it comes on New Year's Eve. That's certainly not a fun travel date for Northern Arizona. Idaho is the better defensive team. The Vandals also are a much better 3-point shooting team ranking 104th in 3-point percentage at 35.8 percent. The Lumberjacks are 319th in 3-point shooting percentage hitting 26.5 percent from beyond the arc. Idaho has more size than Northern Arizona. I realize nobody cares about this game, including the oddsmaker. But value is value and I don't see why Idaho should be an underdog here.
12-30-20	Portland +4.5 v. Seattle University	Top	68-84	Loss	-105	17 h 56 m	Show
Seattle beat Portland in its season opener coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Portland was a 2 1/2-point home favorite in that game. The oddsmaker had it right. The Pilots are the better team. I believe the Pilots still are the superior team. They've gone 6-1 since that loss and have played a stronger schedule than Seattle. The Redhawks are 5-5 and have only two wins versus Division I teams - against Portland and Air Force. The difference could come at the free throw line where Portland ranks 20th in the nation sinking 77.8 percent. Seattle makes less than 69 percent of its free throws.
12-30-20	North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +4		67-72	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
Since opening with a four-overtime loss to Georgia State and a defeat to Mercer, Georgia Tech has gone 4-1 posting victories against Kentucky, Nebraska, Florida A&M and Delaware State. The Yellow Jackets are one of the most experienced teams in the country with four seniors and a junior composing their starting lineup. Each of Georgia Tech's starters average double figures in scoring. It's the reason why Georgia Tech ranks third in the ACC in scoring at 82.7 points. Georgia Tech doesn't have a long bench. But this spot sets up well for the Yellow Jackets' starters to play huge minutes. Georgia Tech hasn't played in 10 days and won't be in action again for another three days. North Carolina has been very uneven this season. The Tar Heels have trailed by double-digits in six of their eight games.
12-30-20	Western Carolina +4 v. East Tennessee State		78-86	Loss	-109	15 h 53 m	Show
This has been a road team series with the visitor covering six of the last seven. I see that trend continuing. Western Carolina is 7-2. The two losses the Catamounts suffered were to Troy and VCU, two solid opponents. East Tennessee State hasn't played that tough of a schdule. The Bucs are 4-4 and in rebuilt mode having lost their coach and all five starters from last season. The Catamounts have too much scoring for East Tennessee State averaging 84 points while shooting 47.5 percent from the floor. An outright victory would not surprise in the least.
12-29-20	Northeastern +18.5 v. West Virginia		51-73	Loss	-110	12 h 55 m	Show
West Virginia was supposed to host Buffalo today, but COVID-19 issues forced the Bulls to cancel. Instead the Mountaineers get Northeastern, a 1-4 team from the Colonial Athletic Association. Easy win for West Virginia, right? The oddsmaker sure thinks so with this large point spread. In my view, it's too big of a number. This is a combination of West Virginia being in a look-ahead spot and Northeastern being better than perceived. The Mountaineers open their Big 12 season following this game. Oklahoma looms on deck. So there's no reason for Bob Huggins to go all out against this non-league foe when he takes the big picture into account. The Huskies split against UMass. They also covered road games versus Syracuse and Old Dominion. The Huskies were leading Georgia by 15 points in the second half as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs in their last game before going frigid and falling, 76-58. Bottom line, I see Northeastern being a tougher out than this point spread indicates.
12-28-20	NJIT +12 v. Vermont	Top	81-80	Win	100	3 h 15 m	Show
I'm attracted to the underdog in this America East Conference matchup. The teams just played each other on Sunday and Vermont won, 92-78. So this is the shortest of revenge spots for NJIT. The Highlanders have the best player on the court in Zach Cooks. He made just 7 of 18 shots from the field, though, on Sunday. I expect the Highlanders to shoot better as a team and for Vermont to shoot much worse. Each team averages 73 points a game. NJIT made just 36 percent of its field goal attempts and was 6-of-25 from 3-point range in yesterday's game, while Vermont hit 56 percent of its shots from the floor and made 12 of 23 3-pointers. I see the rematch being much closer.
12-27-20	Drake -3 v. Indiana State		81-63	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
Drake is 9-0. The Bulldogs have played seven lined games - and covered every one of them. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs so I'm going to ride their unbeaten streak. Drake is consistent on both ends of the floor ranking 26th in scoring and 26th in defensive scoring. The Bulldogs also have the eighth-highest field goal percentage in the country. Roman Penn gives them the best point guard on the floor in this matchup. Drake has held its last eight opponents to 67 or fewer points. Indiana State is a perimeter shooting team. The Sycamores, though, are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point shooting. Their defense is even worse. They rank 282th in defensive field goal percentage and 299th in 3-point defense.
12-26-20	Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne	Top	102-88	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands. Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game. The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog.
12-23-20	Northwestern State v. Washington State -16.5		52-62	Loss	-107	12 h 49 m	Show
Washington State is off to its best start in 13 years opening 7-0. The Cougars are hitting their stride, too, winning by 28 points during each of their last two games. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Northwestern State. The Demons aren't very good - they are 1-9 - and they face a major fatigue issue. This is their fifth road game in six days and third in three days. The Demons have gone against top-ranked Gonzaga each of the last two days. This is Northwestern State's last game until Jan. 2. So it's not inconceivable the Demons mail this one in, or are just plain too tired to effectively compete.
12-22-20	Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. Fairfield		69-65	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson is playing better on both ends of the court. The Knights also have played a tougher schedule than the Stags, who might not have their full concentration with Christmas break following this game. Fairfield is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 78 points in its last three games after averaging 66.5 points during its first four games. The Knights have forced an average of 13.4 turnovers.
12-22-20	SE Missouri State +13.5 v. Indiana State		66-72	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
Indiana State is an inconsistent team that is laying too many points here. The Sycamores haven't broken 68 points in each of their last three games. Southeast Missouri State is 2-4. But it's not a stretch to say the Redhawks could be 6-0 as three of their losses occurred in OT and the other was by two points on a last-second basketball. The Redhawks have three good seniors in Chris Harris, Nolan Taylor and Nana Akenten.
12-21-20	Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay	Top	70-74	Loss	-110	17 h 35 m	Show
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites. The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay. Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them.
12-20-20	Weber State -5 v. Portland State		72-74	Loss	-111	9 h 8 m	Show
Portland State hosted Weber State two days ago. The results weren't pretty for the Vikings. Weber State buried them, 94-66. Now the teams meet again. So what has changed? Nothing really. Portland State has short revenge and a limited home-court edge. But this isn't nearly enough to offset a 28-point difference. Weber State is said to be much improved offensively this season. The Wildcats have shown that. Discount a tough game against Boise State and the Wildcats are averaging 89 points in their three other games. The Wildcats showed they weren't bothered by Portland State's full-court pressure style. The Vikings are breaking in new players. They aren't as advanced right now as Weber State. They rank 317th in field goal percentage and 327th in 3-point shooting percentage. Weber State isn't likely to win by 28 points again, but the Wildcats should easily cover this number.
12-19-20	St. Joe's +22 v. Villanova		68-88	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
I don't see the blowout oddsmakers are predicting. Saint Joseph got a lot of rust off following an 81-77 road loss to Drexel this past Thursday. The Hawks' previous game was way back on Nov. 27. St. Joe's took Auburn to overtime in a loss and was beaten by 22 points on a neutral court by Kansas in its two other games. So the Hawks are battle tested. They have two excellent scorers in Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk. Villanova was supposed to meet Virginia in a huge marquee matchup today in New York City, but that game was canceled because of COVID-19 issues with Virginia. So instead the Wildcats draw nearby Philadelphia foe St. Joe's. This is a huge rivalry game. The game means more for St. Joe's, which is trying to put last season's 6-26 record behind. St. Joe's is coached by Billy Lange, who previously served as associate head coach at Villanova under Wildcats head man Jay Wright. If the Hawks should fall considerably behind late in the game the backdoor should swing open as Wright would not want to embarrass his former assistant by running up a score.
12-19-20	Arizona +2.5 v. Stanford		75-78	Loss	-110	8 h 23 m	Show
Death, taxes and Arizona beating Stanford in college basketball. Those are among the few certainties in life. The Wildcats have defeated the Cardinal 20 times in a row! I see the streak reaching 21 consecutive Arizona victories in the series. The Wildcats are a deep team and tough on both ends of the court. Stanford lacks a strong inside presence and is vulnerable on the offensive glass, which is an Arizona strength. The Wildcats rank eighth in the country in offensive rebounding. Stanford has beaten Alabama, North Carolina A&T and Cal State-Northridge. Only the Alabama win was impressive. In their other step-up games, the Cardinal lost to North Carolina and Indiana. Those losses occurred on neutral courts. This game is on a neutral court, too, being played in Santa Cruz instead of Maples Pavilion on the Stanford campus due to COVID-19 restrictions.
12-19-20	Eastern Washington -9.5 v. Northern Arizona		80-64	Win	100	7 h 26 m	Show
The records may seem like this would be a competitive game between two Big Sky Conference teams. Eastern Washington is 1-4. Northern Arizona is 0-3. But it's not. It's a complete mismatch where Eastern Washington should blow out Northern Arizona far more than even this double-digit spread indicates. Northern Arizona is one of the worst teams in the country. The Lumberjacks' average loss margin is 34 points! Their closest game was a 24-point loss to UC-Riverside. They rank 338th out of 357 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KemPom.com ratings. Eastern Washington has played a far more difficult schedule. The Eagles lost 71-68 to Washington State, lost 70-67 to Arizona, fell 69-52 to Oregon and lost 80-75 to Saint Mary's. All of those games were on the road. The Eagles covered every one of those matchups except the Oregon one. Look for the Eagles, who were the preseason pick to win the Big Sky Conference, to unleash their frustrations and make a strong statement to hapless Northern Arizona knowing the teams meet again on Saturday.
12-19-20	Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. Albany		65-64	Loss	-115	9 h 37 m	Show
UMBC is 4-1 and has covered all five of its games. The Retrievers have looked much better than they did last season. Now they open America East Conference action today against Albany. The Great Danes were 4-20 last season. They have not played yet due to COVID-19 issues. It's difficult to believe Albany is going to be in game shape to take on UMBC having missed so many practices due to constant COVID-19 problems. So this is a very short number to back UMBC.
12-19-20	Purdue v. Notre Dame +6.5		88-78	Loss	-110	10 h 55 m	Show
Notre Dame is one of the most battle-tested teams in the nation. The Irish are 2-3. One of their victories was against Kentucky on the road with three of their defeats occurring to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Irish are a much better 3-point and free throw shooting team than Purdue. The spot is good, too, for the Irish. They played sloppy in a 75-65 home loss to Duke this past Wednesday. Purdue, on the other hand, is off a satisfying 67-60 home win against Big Ten Conference foe Ohio State this past Wednesday. Note this game is at neutral site Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Irish have the experience, coaching and pride to learn from their Duke loss to come back strong after a poor performance.
12-17-20	Cal-Irvine v. Loyola Marymount -4		48-51	Loss	-109	17 h 37 m	Show
I'm sure Cal-Irvine will be a strong factor in the Big West Conference again. But right now the Anteaters are struggling. The Anteaters are 2-3 with their two victories coming against non-Division I opponents while all three losses have been to Division I foes in blowout fashion. The Anteaters lost to Pepperdine, 86-72, at a neutral site, lost 77-58 at San Diego State and fell 91-56 on the road to USC. They are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. Loyola Marymount is 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points at Gersten Pavillion. Senior forward Eli Scott gives the Lions the best player on the court. I don't see the Anteaters getting right in this road setting against this opponent.
12-17-20	St. Joe's +1.5 v. Drexel		77-81	Loss	-105	14 h 38 m	Show
Saint Joseph's has better talent than Drexel with Taylor Funk, Ryan Daly and Jack Forrest. Drexel can't match that firepower. Yet Drexel opened the favorite. I understand the Dragons are home. They've played five games, while St. Joe's has played only two games, none since Nov. 27 because of COVID-19 issues. So, yes, there could be a rust issue. But anytime the superior team is getting points I'm highly interested in backing the 'dog. St. Joe's two games were against Auburn and Kansas. The Hawks led Auburn by three with 30 seconds left before losing in overtime. They were hanging in against Kansas until the final 15 minutes. Drexel is coming off a 14-19 season. The Dragons are 3-2, but haven't beaten a team ranked in the top 250 in the KenPom rankings.
12-15-20	SE Missouri State +3 v. Evansville		63-66	Push	0	14 h 18 m	Show
Nothing fancy here. Evansville is 1-22 in its last 23 games. I'm going to fade them in this chalk role. The Purple Aces are a low-scoring team. They are 1-3 this season and are learning to get in sync having had two of their games canceled. Southeast Missouri State is the higher scoring team and a much better 3-point shooting team than Evansville.
12-15-20	Longwood +4.5 v. Radford		53-62	Loss	-105	13 h 15 m	Show
This is a rare instance of teams playing each other a second straight day. Radford nipped Longwood, 67-66, on Monday failing to cover as 4 1/2-point favorites. I thought Longwood was the better team then and I still believe that way. Both teams shot 45 percent from the floor. Radord, though, made 20 of 28 free throws while Longwood only got to shoot 10 free throws. Yet the Lancers still only lost by one point and had a chance to win at the end. I don't anticipate Radford having such a large free throw discrepancy this time around. Longwood guard Juan Munoz showed he was the best player on the court scoring 29 points. The Lancers have the stronger bench, which could prove important with this short turnaround. Radford has only one of its top seven scorers from last season back. The announced attendance for last night's game was 250 so there's not much home-court edge for Radford. Longwood has held four of its first five foes to fewer than 70 points. The Lancers have covered seven of their last eight road games, while Radford is 3-8-2 ATS in its past 13 home contests.
12-15-20	Buffalo -2.5 v. Miami-OH		90-62	Win	100	13 h 44 m	Show
Buffalo has lost some talent, but the Bulls still will have the two best players on the court in Jeenathan Williams and Jayvon Graves. They've combined to average 37 points and 16 rebounds per game. I see the Bulls having too much firepower for Miami of Ohio. The Bulls are tough on the glass and they outscore the RedHawks by eight points per game. Buffalo has major revenge, too, after the RedHawks upset them as 9-point 'dogs in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season.
12-14-20	Longwood +3.5 v. Radford	Top	66-67	Win	105	14 h 22 m	Show
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools. Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home. Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge.
12-13-20	Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern	Top	75-78	Loss	-112	10 h 55 m	Show
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points. Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season. Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd. I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround.
12-12-20	Wofford +3.5 v. South Florida		56-58	Win	100	7 h 47 m	Show
Wofford is more than capable of beating South Florida, a below average American Athletic Conference team. Note this game is a neutral site matchup being played in Atlanta. The Terriers are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation averaging 90.3 points. They rank 18th in scoring and 10th in shooting percentage. Wofford's lone loss in three games occurred on the road to Richmond, 77-72. The Spiders are one of the top mid-major teams in the country. South Florida is 3-2. The Bulls' wins have come against very weak competition - Florida College, Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson - while their losses were in step-up games against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. South Florida was blown out in both of those games.
12-12-20	Florida +3 v. Florida State		71-83	Loss	-109	7 h 57 m	Show
I like getting this many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. This isn't so much a fade on Florida State as it is a play on Florida, which is coming on after having its first three games cancelled because of COVID-19. The Gators are 3-0, including an impressive 90-70 victory against Boston College at a neutral site. The Gators have a star in forward Keyontae Johnson, who was voted the SEC's Preseason Player of the Year. He's averaging 19.7 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Guard Tre Mann also is playing extremely well for Florida. Florida State has played just twice and only once during the last 10 days. The Seminoles escaped with a 69-67 overtime home victory against Indiana this past Wednesday, failing to cover as 3-point favorites. The Hooisers nearly won despite shooting 37 percent from the floor and missing 11 of 15 3-point shots.
12-11-20	Nevada -1.5 v. Grand Canyon		77-87	Loss	-110	18 h 13 m	Show
So far so good for Grand Canyon and its new coach, Bryce Drew, as the Antelopes are 3-0. But I see the Antelopes taking their first loss here. Nevada has played a far more difficult schedule than Grand Canyon. Among the foes the Wolf Pack have met are San Francisco, North Dakota State, Nebraska and Pacific. The Antelopes have played a Division III school and opponents who are ranked 333th and 377th, which is last, in the KenPom.com ratings. Grand Canyon also figures to be rusty, having not played in 10 days. The Antelopes' home-court edge isn't going to be much either due to limited fan capacity. Grand Canyon's calling card is height. Nevada counters that with a much better 3-point shooting game. Nevada center Warren Washington also has been playing well. The Wolf Pack have experience with four players back from their 19-win team of last season plus transfers. I see an obvious class difference and situational edge here that Grand Canyon's superior height won't be able to overcome.
12-10-20	Cal-Riverside -6.5 v. Northern Arizona		74-50	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
On the surface we have a Big West Conference team, UC Cal-Riverside, taking on a Big Sky Conference foe, Northern Arizona, on the road. So the game should be close, right, considering we have two small conference teams going at it? I don't see it that way. I believe UC Cal-Riverside is much superior to Northern Arizona and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to this. Northern Arizona has played only one game. That came four days ago. The Lumberjacks were crushed by Arizona, 96-53, as 23-point road 'dogs. Arizona nearly doubled the 23-point spread shooting 66.7 percent from the floor and making 59.1 percent of its 3-point shots. Riverside is coming off a 20-point road victory against Denver this past Sunday. The Highlanders put up 83 points and made 46.9 percent of their shots from beyond the range. This doesn't bode well for Northern Arizona. UC-Cal Riverside should be able to hurt the Lumberjacks from outside and score inside with center Jock Perry. The Highlanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. They have a strong history, too, of covering against weaker opponents going 12-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400.
12-09-20	Southern Utah -2.5 v. Utah Valley		81-71	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
There's a class difference here not reflected in the betting line, which is too short. Southern Utah has won three in a row, including beating Montana twice. The Thunderbirds were underdogs both times. Southern Utah forward Maizen Fausett was named Big Sky Conference Player of the Week. Utah Valley is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when going against above .500 opponents. The Thunderbirds can hurt Utah Valley in transition. Southern Utah dominated Montana in transition. That should be the case in this matchup, too.
12-09-20	Furman +4 v. Cincinnati	Top	73-78	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64. The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country. So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning." Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game.
12-08-20	Green Bay +22.5 v. Marquette		68-82	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
Green Bay catches Marquette at a good time. The Golden Eagles are still basking in the glory and satisfaction of defeating fourth-ranked Wisconsin, 67-65, this past Friday night at home. That was Marquette's first victory against a Top 5 program since 2017. So a letdown is very much a possibility for Marquette. The key question is if Green Bay is good enough to cover this large number? The Phoenix are 0-3. But they've played two tough Big Ten teams, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Green Bay was blown out in those games, but showed better in its last game, a two-overtime loss to Eastern Illinois. Green Bay is battle tested enough and given this scheduling break of drawing Marquette fat and happy, I believe the Phoenix can stay within the number.
12-07-20	Northern Arizona +23 v. Arizona		53-96	Loss	-110	16 h 26 m	Show
Northern Arizona is extremely anxious to play. This is the Lumberjacks' first game. They are a slightly above average Big Sky Conference team. I like the spot for the Lumberjacks and believe they have enough talent to cover this large spread. Arizona barely beat another Big Sky team, Eastern Washington, two days ago. The Wildcats won, 70-67, failing to cover as 12 1/2-point home favorites. Arizona is down three of its better players with Kerr Kriisa, Daniel Batcho and Ira Lee all out. Northern Arizona has one of the Big Sky's top players in versatile point guard Cameron Shelton. The Lumberjacks also have an excellent 3-point shooter in Luke Avdalovic and Jay Green, who transferred from UNLV. The Lumberjacks treat this in-state matchup more serious than Arizona. Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar really wants a good showing. He replaced Jack Murphy last season after Murphy left for Arizona to become the associate head coach under Sean Miller. Certainly the Lumberjacks won't lack motivation going against their former coach.
12-06-20	Seton Hall +3 v. Penn State		98-92	Win	100	16 h 44 m	Show
I'm not convinced Penn State is the better team in this matchup even though Seton Hall is off to a slow start. The Nittany Lions had an easy win against overmatched VMI in their opener and then nipped VCU, 72-69, this past Wednesday on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Penn State failed to cover, though. So going back to last season, the Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Seton Hall is 1-3 with a victory against Iona, but losses to Louisville by one point, to Rhode Island on the road and to 21st-ranked Oregon, 83-70, two days ago. The Ducks were blazing in that game hitting 53 percent of their shots from the floor. I envision the Pirates playing with a great deal of urgency. A straight-up victory by the Pirates would not surprise.
12-06-20	Cal-Riverside -4.5 v. Denver		83-63	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
I like the way Cal-Riverside is playing defense. The Highlanders upset Washington, 57-42, at a neutral site in their last game after losing their opener to Pacific on the road, 66-60. Cal-Riverside already is battle tested at this early stage. The same can not be said for Denver. The Pioneers have played only one game and that was an 82-66 home victory against Regis University, a Division II program. Denver also could be rusty having not played in eight days.
12-04-20	South Alabama +10 v. Auburn		81-90	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
South Alabama hung in against Auburn last season losing, 70-69, as seven-point home 'dogs. Right now Auburn isn't nearly as good as it was last season yet the spread is double-digits, which is too high even given that the Tigers are home. This game means more to South Alabama than it does to Auburn and the Jaguars draw the Tigers at a good time. Auburn is feeling its way around after losing its top six scorers from last season. The Tigers brought in point guard Sharife Cooper, a five-star recruit. But Cooper has eligibility issues and has yet to play. The result has been chaos, turnovers and uncertainty at point guard. The Tigers haven't been shooting well, nor converting their free throws. They are extremely young with no seniors and just three juniors. South Alabama is 3-1 and playing with confidence. I see the Jaguars hanging in just like last season.
12-04-20	Oregon v. Seton Hall +3	Top	83-70	Loss	-103	13 h 23 m	Show
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games. Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action. Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island.
12-03-20	Montana +1 v. Southern Utah		63-64	Push	0	14 h 43 m	Show
Montana hadn't played in 266 days until meeting USC this past Saturday. The Grizzlies were rusty in the first half, but outscored the Trojans by five during the second half in a 76-62 loss. There's no shame in losing to the unbeaten Trojans, who dealt BYU its first loss of the season. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Southern Utah, which just got through playing some school named St. Katherine. So the Thunderbirds are in the opposite situation stepping up in class. Southern Utah hasn't been good at home failing to cover 11 of the past 14 times.
12-02-20	Tennessee Tech +23 v. Xavier		48-79	Loss	-100	7 h 36 m	Show
Tennessee Tech has some size and athleticism. The Golden Eagles play a lot of man-to-man, half-court defense, which Xavier hasn't seen too much. Keishawn Davidson is a good player. But most of this handicap to underdog Tennessee Tech is a play against Xavier. The Musketeers are 4-0, but haven't been playing well. Their last three victories against Bradley, Toledo and Eastern Kentucky have been by a combined seven points, including nipping Eastern Kentucky, 99-96 in overtime, on Monday. This marks Xavier's fifth game in seven days. The Musketeers have a rivalry game against Cincinnati on deck. The Musketeers are 0-6 ATS following a victory. Tennessee Tech is 0-2 and averages just 56.5 points. The Golden Eagles are 316th in KenPom.com's rating compared to Xavier's being 65th. But given the situation and Xavier not playing up to its capability yet, I'll accept this many points.
12-02-20	St. John's v. BYU -1		68-74	Win	100	12 h 1 m	Show
I want BYU going for me after the Cougars were upset and smashed by USC, 79-53, on Monday in the Legends Classic opener in the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. St. John's had to work very hard to get past Boston College, 97-93, on Monday in its Legends Classic opener. St. John's is 3-0 with victories against St. Peter's, LaSalle and Boston College. The Johnnies pulled out a 76-75 win against St. Peter's by rallying for four points with 17 seconds left. St. John's was 10 1/2-point favorites in that game. BYU was 3-0 until falling to USC. The Cougars are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But they were ice cold against the Trojans shooting 23 percent from beyond the arc and 27 percent from the field. I expect the Cougars to bounce back. They are 6-0 ATS following a loss. BYU won its first three games by an average of 33 points. St. John's ranks 203rd in 3-point defense. The Johnnies also are breaking in a new point guard. Along with their ability to hit 3-pointers, the Cougars have size and depth, which is key with both teams playing without rest.
12-01-20	Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5	Top	62-65	Loss	-110	17 h 37 m	Show
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's. The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season. Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game. The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive.
12-01-20	North Carolina A&T +4 v. Charleston Southern		70-63	Win	100	14 h 4 m	Show
Charleston Southern has been one of the worst point spread teams going back to last season failing to cover in 9 of its last 10 games. Minus their top player, injured Phlandrous Fleming Jr., the Buccaneers have averaged only 55.5 points in losing and failing to cover during their first two games getting blown out by NC State and Eastern Kentucky. Fleming isn't expected to play here. But Kameron Langley is. He's North Carolina A&T's top player and maybe the best player in the Mid-East Athletic Conference. Langley and fellow seniors Tyrone Lyons and Blake Harris provide plenty of experience, scoring and assists for the Aggies. Langley is one of the top assist guys in the country. Charleston Southern hasn't done anything. The Buccaneers could have problems with Langley setting a fast tempo and with the Aggies' press. So I don't see the Buccaneers being favored even being at home.
11-30-20	Stanford v. Alabama -2		82-64	Loss	-112	16 h 33 m	Show
I know Alabama can produce points. I'm not so sure about Stanford. The Cardinal ranked 228th in scoring last season averaging 69.5. They are not a good free throw shooting team and no longer have Tyrell Terry, who was a second round draft pick of the Dallas Mavericks. This is Stanford's first game of the season. Alabama showed some defense in its opener, defeating Jacksonville State, 81-57, at home this past Wednesday covering as 21-point favorites. The Crimson Tide got some of the kinks out. I'm looking for them to play better in this step-up game. Note this matchup is being played in a downtown arena in Asheville, N.C. after the Maui Invitational was relocated. That's a plus for Alabama, the southern school. Stanford is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 neutral site matchups.
11-29-20	Virginia Tech v. South Florida +8.5		76-58	Loss	-115	10 h 21 m	Show
South Florida is a borderline postseason contender with a defensive-minded backcourt and size up front. The Bulls didn't shoot well on Saturday and lost, 84-68, to Rhode Island in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. No fans were in attendance. So it's easy to overlook South Florida when it takes on 2-0 Virginia Tech today. The 2-0 Hokies are coming off a huge, 81-73, overtime upset victory against third-ranked Villanova in the tournament. Virginia Tech was supposed to have played Temple. But the Owls had to drop out due to COVID-19 issues. So the Hokies may not have their full focus after that huge and unexpected victory against such a power. South Florida coach Brian Gregory knows Virginia Tech, an ACC team, from having coached against them when he was the head man at Georgia Tech.
11-28-20	Eastern Washington +4 v. Washington State		68-71	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
Eastern Washington is very eager to play after its opener against Oregon was cancelled. The Eagles have the speed and perimeter shooting to pull the outright upset. Washington State is a young rebuilding team that went 6-12 in the Pac-12 last season. The Cougars are improving, but I don't rate them better than Eastern Washington, which won the Big Sky Conference last season and is picked by many to repeat. The Eagles likely were going to the NCAA Tournament before the season was cancelled. Washington State didn't look sharp in its opener this past Wednesday. The Cougars trailed at halftime before getting past Texas Souther, 56-52, as 12-point home favorites.
11-27-20	Mercer +13 v. Georgia Tech		83-73	Win	100	10 h 8 m	Show
Georgia Tech is coming off a tough, 123-120, four-overtime loss to Georgia State in its opening game two days ago. The Yellow Jackets better not sleep on this opponent, or they could be in trouble. Mercer has just a 15-minute drive so this isn't much of a road trip. The Bears are going to be taking this neighborhood matchup very serious, probably more so than Georgia Tech. This is the first meeting between the teams since 2011. Mercer easily beat North Georgia, 79-48, on Wednesday. A key for the Bears is the return of senior sharpshooter Ross Cummings, who missed much of last season due to a foot injury. Cummings could finish as Mercer's all-time leader in 3-pointers made. The Bears finished last season with an above .500 record in true road games. They dealt East Tennessee State its lone home loss last season with a 16-point win. Mercer has covered six of its past seven away games.
11-27-20	Arkansas-Little Rock +3 v. NC-Greensboro		70-77	Loss	-102	9 h 54 m	Show
These are a pair of good teams from small conferences. The game is being played in neutral site Louisville as part of the Wade Houston Classic tournament. Arkansas Little Rock has the advantage of already having played. The Trojans downed Prairie View A&M, 71-66, on Wednesday. NC Greensboro not only hasn't played yet, but the Spartans weren't even able to have any preseason scrimmages against outside competition. I don't see the Spartans being the superior team, so I'll accept these points and back Arkansas Little Rock.
11-26-20	Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5	Top	59-83	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies. So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog.
11-25-20	Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin	Top	67-77	Win	100	13 h 8 m	Show
Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season. The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining. Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points.
11-25-20	Cal-Irvine +2 v. Pepperdine		72-86	Loss	-110	10 h 38 m	Show
UC Irvine has a front-court edge, is the stronger defensive team and is much better coached with Russell Turner against Pepperdine's Lorenzo Romar. The Anteaters had a strong chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year before the season was cancelled going 21-11. Pepperdine is a mediocre West Coast Conference team that went 16-16 and had one of the worst defenses in the country.
11-25-20	Toledo v. Bradley -3		59-61	Loss	-116	6 h 27 m	Show
Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last season and has good depth this season. The Braves haven't had to endure a full COVID-19 quarantine like Toledo did. The Braves beat the Rockets, 78-66, last season. Bradley coach Brian Wardle knows Toledo coach Tod Kowalcyk having served five seasons under him at Green Bay. So playing Toledo has extra meaning for Bradley.
03-11-20	Kansas State v. TCU -1.5	Top	53-49	Loss	-109	16 h 43 m	Show
TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
03-11-20	CS Sacramento v. Weber State +4		62-54	Loss	-110	9 h 54 m	Show
These are two evenly matched teams - each 8-12 - playing at a neutral site in the first round of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. So I am happy to accept this many points with Weber State. The Wildcats average nearly seven points more per game than Sacramento State. The Hornets are the better defensive team, but they enter tourney play giving up 76 and 79 points during their last two games, losses to Portland State and Montana. Weber State beat Sacramento State during the most recent meeting, 70-66, as 1-point home 'dogs on Feb. 6.

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