NCAA Basketball Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
03-04-15 | Colorado State -7.5 v. Nevada | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila. |
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03-01-15 | Oregon State v. California -3 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting. |
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02-28-15 | NC State v. Boston College +5 | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I can easily see North Carolina State overlooking Boston College in this ACC sandwich spot. The Wolfpack are off a huge victory against arch-rival North Carolina and have a revenge game on tap against Clemson. That victory at North Carolina just may have put the Wolfpack into the NCAA Tournament and cause a letdown for this matchup against the lowly Eagles. |
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02-26-15 | Oregon State v. Stanford -8 | Top | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points! |
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02-25-15 | Denver v. South Dakota -3.5 | Top | 66-48 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road. |
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02-24-15 | UNLV v. Utah State -2.5 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Utah State is playing well winning and covering its past four games. The Aggies rank in the top 20 in 3-point shooting and hold a huge coaching edge with Stew Morrill against David Rice. |
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02-21-15 | Marshall +10.5 v. UAB | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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02-21-15 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -11.5 | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and has strong revenge motivation. The Chippewas were hammered 83-65 by Ball State last month. The Cardinals are 2-11 in conference. That's one of their MAC victories and an embarrassement to Central Michigan. |
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02-21-15 | Austin Peay +19 v. Murray State | 54-89 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Murray State clearly is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay sits at the bottom of the West standings. |
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02-19-15 | Utah -8 v. Oregon State | Top | 47-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint. |
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02-18-15 | UCLA v. Arizona State -2.5 | 66-68 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
UCLA is not the same team on the road. The Bruins are just 3-9 away from Pauley Pavilion. Lack of depth and experience has hurt the Bruins on the road. Arizona is the second-most experienced team in the Pac-12 and has the guard depth to take advantage of UCLA's road woes. |
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02-18-15 | Northwestern +11 v. Minnesota | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten. |
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02-17-15 | Michigan State -4 v. Michigan | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions. |
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02-17-15 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -11 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Notre Dame is rested and prepared to blow out Wake Forest. The Irish last played a week ago. They had not been playing well during their last four games - losing at Pittsburgh, only beating ACC-worst Boston College by eight in their last home game on Feb. 4, getting blown out by 30 to Duke and nipping Clemson by two. |
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02-16-15 | Pittsburgh +13 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road. |
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02-15-15 | California +17.5 v. Utah | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Cal has turned things around winning five in a row. The Golden Bears are 5-2 in true road games. They've won their past three away games while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road contests. |
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02-15-15 | Illinois +13.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season. |
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02-14-15 | New Mexico v. Nevada +4.5 | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
Nevada will be going all out at home off their worst defensive effort of the season and having dropped their last four at Lawlor Events Center. In three of their last four home losses, the Wolf Pack lost by a combined 10 points to UNLV, San Diego State and Fresno State. |
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02-14-15 | Oregon State -1 v. USC | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though. |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0. |
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02-12-15 | Stanford +11.5 v. Utah | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games. |
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02-11-15 | Oregon -4 v. USC | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
Oregon is coming on while USC has dropped eight in a row done in by inexperience and lack of offense. |
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02-10-15 | Xavier -3 v. Marquette | 64-44 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Xavier is ranked 34th in the NCAA Daily RPI while Marquette rates 114th. The 15-9 Musketeers clearly are the superior team probably around a ninth seed if the NCAA Tournament were being seeded right now. Marquette has a losing record. |
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02-08-15 | Washington v. Oregon State -3 | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
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02-07-15 | VCU v. Saint Bonaventure +3 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
VCU managed to cover against George Mason this past Wednesday, 72-60, in a game that was closer than the final score. The Rams won that game despite missing point guard Briante Weber, lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in a 64-55 loss to Richmond on Jan. 31. |
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02-05-15 | Washington State +9 v. Oregon State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow. |
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02-04-15 | Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. |
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02-02-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay -5.5 v. Wright State | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances. |
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01-29-15 | Utah -6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
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01-29-15 | Colorado v. USC +2.5 | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows. |
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01-28-15 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season. |
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01-24-15 | Kansas v. Texas -3 | Top | 75-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
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01-22-15 | UCLA v. Oregon State -1.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. |
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01-21-15 | Indiana State +13 v. Northern Iowa | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage. |
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01-17-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Maryland | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier. |
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01-15-15 | Oregon State v. Washington -6 | Top | 43-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona. |
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01-14-15 | Illinois State -3.5 v. Indiana State | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
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01-10-15 | Dayton -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage. |
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12-27-14 | Southern Utah +19 v. UNLV | Top | 45-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here. Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games. UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. |
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12-25-14 | George Washington +5.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go. Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor. George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone. |
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12-17-14 | San Diego State v. Cincinnati | 62-71 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team. Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays. Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests. |
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12-16-14 | Arizona State +3 v. Marquette | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players. Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago. Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is now eligible. The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. |
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12-15-14 | Elon +32.5 v. Duke | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season. Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday. Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs. Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. |
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12-10-14 | Long Beach State v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 59-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969. But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70. The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss. |
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12-04-14 | Arkansas +7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 77-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Not only is No. 21-ranked Arkansas worthy of covering this spread, but it can win straight-up. The unbeaten Razorbacks can score, have an outstanding backcourt, shot-blocker and are physically and mentally tough. The 6-0 Razorbacks have played one game away from home - and they beat SMU, 78-72, in that contest. That was the fewest points the Razorbacks scored in a game - and they still won covering as 4-point 'dogs. They are averaging 90 points per game, only three teams average more. I really like Arkansas' backcourt of Michael Qualls and Rashad Madden. They've helped the Razorbacks lead the nation in assists per game at 20.7. Iowa State is 4-1. The Cyclones haven't been sharp, especially early, in three of their games. A slow start could doom them against the up-tempo Razorbacks. Arkansas has a good history in these spots covering nine of the last 12 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. |
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12-03-14 | UNLV v. Arizona State -5 | Top | 55-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
UNLV is one of the least experienced teams in the country breaking in all new starters. The Rebels are not well coached and playing in their first real road game of the season. The Rebels' challenge is even more daunting because they are at Arizona State. The Sun Devils have won 20 of their last 21 games homes, including the past 12 at Wells Fargo Arena. Among the teams the Sun Devils have defeated during this span are Utah, Colorado, Oregon, then second-ranked Arizona, Colgate this season and Stanford, a team that beat UNLV by 21 points at a neutral site less than two weeks ago. UNLV has talent. But it's too early in the season for that talent to mesh. The Rebels have broken the 60-point barrier just once in their first five games and are shooting less than 58 percent from the foul line. The Sun Devils defeated the Rebels by six points last season - at UNLV. The Rebels can rebound and block shots, but lack the Sun Devils' experience and balanced attack. The Rebels have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games. |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 73 h 47 m | Show |
Great coaching, preparation and team basketball trumps great individual freshman talent. That's the bottom line in this Final Four matchup as to why Wisconsin will beat Kentucky.
The Badgers have always played tremendous defense under Ryan, who I consider one of the best coaches in the country. But this season Ryan actually has a talented offensive group with five versatile players, who can all hit an open 3-pointer including red-hot 7-footer Frank Kaminsky. It's not a fluke the Badgers have covered 10 of their last 11 non-league games. Kentucky is the first team to reach a Final Four starting all freshmen since Michigan's "Fab Five" did it in 1992. The Wildcats are off perhaps their three best games of the season beating Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan at the buzzer. Aside from getting past Arizona in overtime during their last game, the Badgers have been taking care off business in the NCAA Tournament in less dramatic fashion. The Badgers have yet to really play their "A" game while it's a lot to ask five starting freshmen to put together four straight magnificent efforts in the most pressure of pressure situations. Wisconsin's four other starters besides Kaminsky are capable of playing better. The Badgers still remain under the radar being the only team left to have taken out three No. 1 seeds. The Big Ten Conference also was tougher than the SEC this season. Kentucky has the tradition, name players and is a public team. But Wisconsin is the better team. It's a bonus the Badgers are catching points. |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -3 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Wisconsin's Bo Ryan is a great coach. But he hasn't much time in a quick turnaround to prepare the Badgers to face the best and most athletic defensive team they've played all season.
Wisconsin played a great game in burying Baylor two days ago. Arizona was able to get by San Diego State, 70-64, despite Nick Johnson, the Pac 12 Player of the Year, missing his first 10 shots. I don't see the Badgers putting together back-to-back "A" games while the Wildcats and Johnson are going to play better. It's not just Johnson as Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have been hot from the inside. They've helped the Wildcats outscore their opponents by 11 points per game in the paint. Playing in Anaheim is a plus for the Wildcats, too. The Badgers travel well, but they are not used to being on the West Coast. Arizona has covered seven of its last nine NCAA Tournament games and is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference matchups. |
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03-28-14 | Connecticut +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
Emotion, experience and matchups. They all heavily factor here - and these key factors all are in favor of Connecticut.
Iowa State rode a lot of emotion into beating North Carolina, 85-83, this past Sunday to earn their way into the Sweet 16 motivated by the season-ending foot injury to George Niang, who is an excellent two-way player and maybe the best all-around player on the Cyclones. North Carolina had just one day to guess how Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg would compensate for that big injury. Connecticut has five days to prepare knowing Hoiberg went for size in replacing Niang giving 6-foot-8 Daniel Edozie his first start. Taking nothing away from Iowa State's gritty win against the Tar Heels, but North Carolina suffered an unexpected injury just two minutes into the game when 6--9 Brice Johnson left for good. Iowa State is going to have size and bench disadvantages against Connecticut. The Cyclones also aren't going to have that intangible show-the-world mentality now that the full reality of Niang's absence is felt and they won a game without him fueled by emotion. Helping Iowa State's cause against North Carolina was converting 12-of-26 3-pointers for 46 percent. The Cyclones converted 35.8 percent of their 3-pointers during the season. Iowa State is not Big Dance tournament tested like Connecticut is. The Huskies won the NCAA championship three years ago. Their star guard and leading scorer, Shabazz Napier, was part of that. He's having a big tournament and will be hard to stop, especially since Niang was one of the Cyclones' best and most versatile defenders. Iowa State also is going to have problems matching up against 6-9 DeAndre Daniels. The Huskies are used to playing in Madison Square Garden. Iowa State is not. The Huskies like to think of Madison Square Garden as their home away from home having competed annually there in the Big East Tournament until this season when they joined the American Athletic Conference. Playing in New York is like having home court advantage for the Huskies as their campus in less than a three-hour drive away and many of their fans live in the New York area. |
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03-27-14 | Baylor +3.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 52-69 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Both Wisconsin and Baylor come into the Sweet 16 playing well. The Badgers, though, aren't in Milwaukee anymore. They are far away from Wisconsin being in Anaheim, Calif. So their home-court edge they had in tournament victories against American and Oregon, a team they were fortunate to beat, no longer exists.
Baylor is 12-2 in its last 14 games peaking at the best possible time. The Bears have the athleticism, height, offensive balance and matchup zone type of defense that Wisconsin hasn't encountered too often. The Bears have a lot of inside length, but also can make their 3-pointers shooting nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc. They can hurt the Badgers, a not strong rebounding team, on the boards. Baylor's 7-foot-1 center Isaiah Austin is averaging nearly four blocks a game during the Bears' six postseason games this season. I do think the Badgers have a coaching edge with Bo Ryan. However, the Bears' 17-3 tournament record in March during the last six years is highly impressive. Baylor reached the Elite Eight in 2010 and 2012. The Bears won the NIT title last season. Baylor is a very tough out so catching this many points is huge. The Bears are 9-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. They have covered in 11 of their last 15 non-conference games and are 6-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Baylor beat Nebraska, 74-60, in its NCAA Tournament opener and then destroyed Creighton by 30 points. Wisconsin lost by nine on the road to Nebraska in its last regular season game. |
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03-23-14 | Baylor +3.5 v. Creighton | Top | 85-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Baylor is playing its best basketball winning 11 of its last 13 games. The Bears are NCAA Tournament tested, have the height and big man talent to match up against Doug McDermott and the athleticism to frustrate the Blue Jays.
These are the ingredients needed to upset Creighton. Baylor also is on its own home turf with the matchup being played in San Antonio, which is just 180 miles away from Waco. McDermott is a special talent. But the Bears have a front line that can contain him with 7-foot-1 Isaiah Austin, 6-9 Cory Jefferson and 6-6 Royce O'Neal. Austin was highly recruited and has a huge wing span. The Bears played well again in beating Nebraska 74-60 in their first-round tournament game. Baylor won that game despite its second leading scorer and top 3-point shooter, Brady Heslip, missing all six of his shots from beyond the arc. Look for Heslip to shoot much better. Heslip along with Jefferson and key contributor Gary Franklin all played for Baylor two years ago when the Bears made the Elite Eight. |
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03-22-14 | Oregon +5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Wisconsin scores more this season, but its defense has slipped. The Badgers have been hurt more than most teams by the new rule that limits physical play. That's the style Bo Ryan has taught his Badgers, who lost three of their best defenders last year.
The Badgers are vulnerable against fast-paced teams, who can knock down the 3-pointer plus get to the hoops and hit their free throws. Oregon has those traits. The Ducks ranked No. 8 in scoring, 31st in 3-point percentage and sixth in free throw percentage. The Ducks have three good guards - Joseph Young, Johnathan Loyd and Jason Calliste. I don't see the Badgers slowing all three down. The Badgers are not fast enough or athletic enough to keep up with Oregon, whose run-and-shoot style produces layups and open 3-pointers. The line is a bit inflated because of Wisconsin's 75-35 first-round blowout win against American. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a point spread cover. Oregon is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing at a neutral site. |
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03-22-14 | Dayton v. Syracuse -7 | 55-53 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm not impressed with Dayton. Who have they really beaten this season? I don't consider defeating Ohio State a big achievement.
Syracuse is laying in the weeds. The Orangemen were huge for much of the year, then slipped toward the home stretch, but are now back up and dangerous. I can't see the Flyers doing much against the taller Orangemen and their vaunted 2-3 zone defense. Dayton doesn't play zone defense. This is significance because the Flyers couldn't really practice going against a zone in practice. The Orange are a top-10 defensive club holding foes to under 60 points a game. Dayton is respectable, too, defensively but gives up eight more points per game than the Orange. |
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03-21-14 | Coastal Carolina +21.5 v. Virginia | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is better than a normal 16th seed with three good guards. The Chanticleers average close to 73 points a game and are 27th in the country in defensive field goal percentage. They will get good fan support playing in Raleigh, N.C., which is 2 1/2 hours from their campus in Conway, S.C.
Virginia enters this tournament with very high expectations after winning the ACC title and conference tournament. The Cavaliers have the No. 1 defense in the land. They are a grinder on offense, though. This is going to be a very slow paced game, the kind of style that favors a big underdog such as Coastal Carolina. The over/under indicates the oddsmaker is anticipating a low-scoring game. So a correlated parlay to the 'dog and under makes sense if you're parlay-minded. Virginia has a shot to win the tournament. The Cavaliers are looking at this tournament in a long term way. They don't care how much they win this game by - they just want to win, conserve as much energy as they can and move on. The defensive-minded Cavaliers are not built to score a lot of points and cover huge margins like this. They average fewer than 66 points a game. Only once in their past 21 games have the Cavaliers beaten an opponent by more than 21 points. Coastal Carolina is playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993. Its players obviously are very excited. The Chanticleers have nothing to lose. They can play loose. They will do all they can to not get embarrassed, nor is Virginia looking to embarrass this opponent. The Chanticleers are coached by Cliff Ellis, who knows the ACC having coaching Clemson for 10 years during the 1980s and '90s. |
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03-20-14 | North Dakota State v. Oklahoma -3.5 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a case of fading an untested team at a short price. Oklahoma is in the bargain range with tremendous line value.
The Big 12 very well may have been the best conference in the country. North Dakota State barely got past Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne in the Summit League Tournament title game. The best team the Bisons beat all season was Notre Dame, which had the third-worst record in the ACC. Both teams can score, but I trust the Sooners' scorers more. They have four players who average double figures and are excellent free throw shooters. Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600 while North Dakota State is 5-13 ATS when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-19-14 | Iowa v. Tennessee +2.5 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Current form means a lot here in this opening NCAA Tournament game. Tennessee has won five of its last six games. The Volunteers' only loss during this span was against top-ranked Florida - and they nearly upset the Gators.
Contrast this with Iowa. The Hawkeyes would be one of the worst teams in the Big 10 if you counted just the past 3 1/2 weeks. Iowa is 1-6 in its last seven games, 0-7 ATS. The Hawkeyes' defense is down. Their rebounding is off and they're struggling to make shots. Iowa did outrebound Northwestern during its last game this past Thursday in the Big Ten Conference Tournament - and still lost by five as a 13-point favorite. Tennessee ranks 18th in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Vols are far more athletic than Northwestern. Tennessee is playing top-notch defense, too, down the stretch giving up an average of only 47.4 points per game during its last five contests. On the season, the Vols hold foes to an average of just 40.8 percent shooting from the floor. This was a down year for the SEC. But the Big Ten really levels off after Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes don't have a good track record in the NCAA either having last won a tournament game in 2001. It's been a distracting week for Iowa coach Fran McCaffery because his 13-year-old son underwent surgery to remove a tumor on his thyroid. |
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03-15-14 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Virginia | Top | 48-51 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Often it takes one outstanding player playing great to help carry a team to a conference tournament title. Pittsburgh is getting that from senior Talib Zanna, who has scored 36 points and pulled down 30 rebounds in helping the Panthers advance to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament with victories over Wake Forest and North Carolina.
In their last five games, the Panthers have scored 85 in overtime against Notre Dame, 67 versus North Carolina State, 83 in overtime against Clemson, 84 versus Wake Forest and 80 against the Tar Heels. Of course I don't see Pittsburgh putting up that many points against Virginia, but the Panthers are playing well and have a very strong defense, too, ranking 28th. Virginia nipped Pittsburgh, 48-45, when the teams last met on Feb. 2. The Cavaliers hit a last-second 3-pointer to win the game in a matchup that could have gone either way. This is going to be a scrappy matchup where taking points really matter. |
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03-13-14 | Wyoming v. UNLV -8 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
UNLV is well aware that it needs to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament in order to make the NCAA Tournament. The tournament is on UNLV's home court, the Thomas & Mack Center.
The Rebels are finally healthy with Bryce Dejean-Jones returning from suspension and Roscoe Smith back from a concussion. Wyoming has been way down since losing its star leading scorer and rebounder, Larry Nance Jr. to a knee injury. The Cowboys have dropped four of five since. UNLV has never lost three in a row under David Rice. The Rebels are healthy, motivated, have home-court and catch Wyoming unable to recover from losing Nance. |
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03-11-14 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State -6 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has been a great under-the-radar story this season meeting Wright State on the road for the Horizon League championship game with the winner securing a berth in the NCAA Tournament.
But the clock strikes midnight for the Panthers here in the title matchup. Wright State has too much experience, balance and bench strong for UWM, which lost 24 of 32 games last season. The Panthers achieved their high water mark knocking off No. 1 seed Green Bay in overtime this past Saturday as an 11 1/2-point 'dog. It's way too much to expect the Panthers to hang in against another superior foe on the road on such short notice. Wright State certainly won't be taking UWM lightly either after losing 68-64 to the Panthers on the road. The Raiders buried the Panthers, 73-57, at home earlier this season. Only 20 teams in the country have allowed fewer points per game than Wright State. |
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03-08-14 | Fresno State -6 v. San Jose State | 69-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
Fresno State is healthy for one of the few teams this season and underrated. The Bulldogs are road proven having won their past three away contests. They are 21-8-1 ATS during their last 30 road contests and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 overall games.
The Bulldogs should have more motivation than hapless San Jose State knowing a victory would give them a winning season and help give them a better seed in the upcoming Mountain West Conference Tournament. San Jose State is easily the worst team in the conference. The Spartans do not have a league win at home. They rank last in the Mountain West in field goal percentage at 36.4 and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 overall games. The teams met a month ago and Fresno State cruised to an 82-56 victory. |
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03-08-14 | Baylor v. Kansas State -3.5 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Revenge, senior day and a 15-game home win streak all help convince me to lay this semi-short number with Kansas State.
This isn't just a typical revenge spot for the Wildcats. No loss bothered them more than losing at Baylor in double overtime by 14 points after leading by 10 with fewer than nine minutes to go in regulation. This also is the final home game for four Wildcat seniors, including Shane Southwell and Will Spradling. The Wildcats are 8-0 in Big 12 action at home. Among their victories were defeating Kansas by three, Iowa State by seven, Texas by 17 and Oklahoma State by 5 1/2. Baylor has a losing road record in Big 12 action. The Bears have lost on the road to Texas, Iowa State and Kansas with the average losing margin in these games being by 10 points. |
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03-06-14 | Iowa v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 76-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
You have to go back to 1993 to find the last time Iowa won at Michigan State. The Spartans have won the last 17 times hosting the Hawkeyes, 15 in a row under Tom Izzo.
The Spartans are on a two-game losing streak. They haven't lost three in a row all season and traditionally play their best ball under Izzo in March. When the Hawkeyes played at Breslin Center last season they lost by 34 points. Michigan State has covered four of the last five times off a loss. Izzo drove his players hard with two-a-day practices this week following a home loss to Illinois this past Saturday. That game, though, was important for the Spartans even though they lost because they finally had all their injured players back. Now they've had close to a week of intense practices to get back in sync. Michigan State has three home losses this season. The Spartans haven't lost four home games in a season since 1996-97. That was just Izzo's second season. Iowa is a decent, but far from great road club splitting eight of its Big Ten road games. The Hawkeyes haven't finished above .500 in Big Ten road games since 1997-98. The Spartans prevailed, 71-69, in overtime in the team's first meeting this season on Jan. 28. The Spartans won despite shooting 23 fewer free throws than Iowa and being without their second-leading scorer, Adreian Payne, and their leading rebounder Branden Dawson. |
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03-04-14 | Miami (Fla) +4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The Hurricanes are proven road warriors and in need of a victory if they want to avoid playing during the first day of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.
Clemson locked up an opening day bye in the ACC tournament by getting past Maryland in double overtime this past Sunday. The Tigers exerted tremendous energy in going all out to achieve that victory with four of their starters playing 40 or more minutes. K.J. McDaniels logged 48 minutes while Landry Nnoko went 46 minutes. The Tigers are going to be laboring and facing one of the toughest defensive clubs in the nation. The Hurricanes rank 11th defensively giving up less than 60 points per game. They also are 32nd in defensive field goal percentage. Miami has covered six of its last eight road games and is 6-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning home mark. The Hurricanes are 5-1-1 ATS as conference road 'dogs. |
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03-02-14 | New Mexico -4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 72-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Nevada is fading badly losing and failing to cover in five of its last six games. The last time the Wolf Pack played at home - two games ago - they lost as a 13-point favorite to San Jose State. That's the Spartans' lone Mountain West Conference win in 16 league games.
New Mexico holds a talent edge at every position except point guard and has a deeper bench. The Lobos rolled past the Wolf Pack, 90-72, on Feb. 15. New Mexico is 13-2 in the Mountain West and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games, including covering its past five away matchups. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 home contests. |
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03-01-14 | Iowa State v. Kansas State | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Kansas State has the best defense in the Big 12. Iowa State owns the best offense in the conference. But I see defense trumping offense in this matchup.
The Wildcats are 14-1 at home. They have covered nine of their last 11 at Bramlage Coliseum. Their star freshman guard Marcus Foster is playing well averaging 20.9 points and shooting 50 percent from the floor during his last seven games. Senior forward Shane Southwell is close to 100 percent from a foot injury. Kansas State has a great home-court advantage, which is proven by a 23-6-1 ATS record in its last 30 home contests versus opponents with a winning road record, including a 10-3 ATS mark against foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Wildcats have covered 76 percent of the time in their last 17 games versus teams with a winning record. Iowa State, by contrast, has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 Big 12 games. The Cyclones are 0-7 ATS during their past Saturday games. Kansas State has a strong revenge motive after losing 81-75 on Jan. 25 in Ames. In that six-point loss, the Wildcats made 42 percent of their shots from the floor compared to Iowa State hitting 48 percent. The Wildcats also shot 12 fewer free throws, which isn't likely to be the case at home. |
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02-28-14 | Yale +7 v. Princeton | Top | 46-57 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Look for Yale to bounce back after Columbia ended the Bulldogs' seven-game winning streak. Yale is 22-8 ATS following a loss.
Princeton is 4-6 in its last 10 games, which includes home defeats to Harvard and Columbia. Yale is 8-2 in its last 10 games, including a win at home and a 66-65 home victory against Princeton on a putback by Justin Sears in overtime. Princeton has been a big money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home matchups. |
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02-27-14 | Gonzaga -6 v. Pacific | Top | 70-53 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
Gonzaga needs this game to clinch the West Coast Conference title and also to stop the pain of a two-game losing streak. If the Bulldogs lose here, they'll have to beat Saint Mary's on the road Saturday to win the title. So I see a very focused effort from the Bulldogs.
Gonzaga is 7-2-1 ATS following a loss. The Bulldogs destroyed Pacific, 86-64, in the first meeting last month. Pacific doesn't have the needed perimeter defense to keep this close. The Tigers rank 346th in defending against 3-pointers. Gonzaga is in no mood to screw around after consecutive road losses to San Diego and BYU. The Bulldogs average 77.5 points per game. Pacific surrenders just under 75 points a game. The Tigers have lost three in a row by an average margin of 13.3 points a game to competitor inferior to Gonzaga. |
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02-26-14 | Michigan -5 v. Purdue | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The line is purposely low because the oddsmaker is factoring a Michigan letdown after its big showdown victory this past Saturday at home against Michigan State.
But what's not being factor correctly is how bad the Boilermakers are playing and how low their mental state is. The 15-12 Boilermakers aren't going anywhere especially after suffering a 76-57 thrashing at Nebraska that put an exclamation on their down season. Purdue is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. It's one cover was a huge in-state win against rival Indiana. In their last home game, the Boilermakers lost 94-79 to Michigan State, a team the Wolverines just defeated by nine points. All together, the Boilermakers have dropped seven of their last nine. Morale is low and not helped by the news that senior guard Sterling Carter is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL in the loss to Nebraska. Even before this, the Boilermakers had shown little heart. Michigan is well-coached and knows a letdown loss to Purdue would negate its big win against Michigan State. Properly motivated, the Wolverines should bury the Boilermakers. They lead the Big Ten in free throw percentage while Purdue is last in the conference in free throw percentage. |
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02-25-14 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech | 60-56 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Home-court means a lot in this matchup of tough-nosed defensive clubs who have been struggling.
Kansas State has cooled off since a 10-game winning streak going 6-6 in their last 12 games. The Wildcats have dropped their past six road contests. The Wildcats play four freshmen who have yet to learn how to win on the road. Texas Tech is stronger at home and is heavily promoting this matchup in hopes of drawing another sellout crowd. The Red Raiders have covered in 10 of their last 14 games in Lubbock. They also are 7-1 ATS following a point spread loss, which happened in their last game a blowout loss at Oklahoma State. The game before that, however, the Red Raiders nearly upset Kansas at home losing, 64-63. The Red Raiders also have revenge. Kansas State won the first meeting, 66-58. The Wildcats shot 44 percent from the floor in that game while Texas Tech made less than 34 percent of its field goals. |
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02-25-14 | Iowa -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 89-95 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Iowa enters this matchup angry coming off a 79-74 home loss to Wisconsin this past Saturday. The Hawkeyes are a perfect 6-0 following a loss.
The Hawkeyes are fifth in the Big Ten behind Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Iowa clearly is a notch above Minnesota, whose season has slipped away again. The Hawkeyes haven't lost to a team outside the RPI top 18. They destroyed the Gophers by 21 points in the first meeting this season. Minnesota chances of making the NCAA Tournament took a serious hit with losses in its last two games to Illinois and Ohio State by a combined 31 points. The Gophers have lost to unranked Illinois and Northwestern during two of their past three games at Williams Arena while losing six of their past eight overall games. Iowa has been a big money-maker on the road covering seven of its last eight on the highway. |
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02-23-14 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Only once in its last five games has Michigan had a strong offensive performance. Take away a 79-point game against Nebraska and the Wolverines are averaging 62.7 points in their last four games.
Michigan State is getting healthier with team assists leader Keith Appling back and is playing better covering four of its last five. The Spartans also are 8-1 ATS during their last nine road contests and 7-3 ATS versus opponents with a win percentage above .600. Michigan won the first meeting, 80-75. But the Spartans were missing senior center Adreian Payne due to a foot injury. Payne is averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds in five games since returning. I don't see Michigan matching up well inside against Michigan State with Payne back on the court plus the Spartans are sure to get better looks at the basket with Payne in the lineup. |
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02-22-14 | LSU v. Kentucky -11.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
LSU is garbage on the road and faces a revenge-minded Kentucky team that plays far better at home and is in good form.
Kentucky has won five of six since losing 87-82 on the road to LSU. The Wildcats' only loss during this span was to second-ranked Florida. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS the past six times they've been double-digit home favorites this season. LSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight road games versus opponents with a winning home mark. The Tigers have lost and failed to cover in their last three away matchups falling to Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia during this span by an average losing margin of 10.6 points. Kentucky is much stronger than those teams. The Wildcats hold a huge rebounding edge. I see a fast-paced Kentucky offense pouring in points and taking advantage of missed shots with second and third chances. |
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02-22-14 | Marquette -7 v. DePaul | 96-94 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Marquette is playing better and knows it has to be focused down the stretch. DePaul, on the other hand, has quit on the season. The Blue Demons haven't been competitive since their leading scorer and rebounder, Cleveland Melvin, was dismissed from the team.
DePaul has lost nine in a row with the average losing margin being 17.7 points. The Blue Demons have covered only 27 percent of the time during their last 26 home contests. Marquette has won the past five in the series, including 66-56 in the first meeting on Jan. 4. The Golden Eagles had won three in a row until being outclassed by 12th-ranked Creighton suffering a miserable day at the free throw line. That shouldn't happen here as Marquette is several notches above DePaul. The Golden Eagles are 18-7-2 ATS the past 27 times following a defeat. |
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02-20-14 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Purdue | Top | 94-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
Tom Izzo has been cracking the whip hard since the Spartans suffered a shocking home loss this past Sunday to Nebraska.
The Spartans have a huge game this Sunday against arch-rival Michigan, but that matchup will lose some of its luster if Michigan State loses this game to Purdue. It's something Izzo and his well-coached players are well aware of. While Michigan State is off a bad loss, Purdue is off its best win of the season, an 18-point victory against Indiana. The Boilermakers are fat and happy now. They aren't going to the NCAA Tournament. They are 5-7 in the Big Ten, 2-5 in their last seven games and have failed to cover in six of their past seven home contests. The Spartans need this game to set up their showdown for first place in the Big Ten with Michigan. Izzo is too good of a coach to have his team overlook the Boilermakers, especially off a terrible loss. The 21-5 Spartans have won their following game after each of their first four losses. Izzo has had to deal with injuries but expects to have senior guard Keith Appling available. The Spartans have handled Purdue in the past winning the last five meetings. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Mackey Arena. Michigan State has won 10 of its 12 road contests while covering seven of the past eight times away from East Lansing. |
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02-19-14 | Arizona State v. Colorado -3.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Colorado has gotten back on track after losing star guard Spencer Dinwiddie. The Buffaloes have won of their last five and catch Arizona State in a bad situational spot.
The Sun Devils are on the road after a thrilling 69-66 double-overtime home win against in-state rival and No. 4 ranked Arizona this past Friday. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover in three of its last four road Pac-12 games. Colorado, firmly on the bubble, is at home where it is 15-1 this season. |
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02-18-14 | South Florida +23 v. Louisville | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Yes, South Florida is terrible. But this is a real letdown spot for fifth-ranked Louisville and the line is inflated.
The Cardinals are off a couple of easy victories last week, including destroying Rutgers 102-54 this past Saturday. Louisville has failed to cover the past eight times after scoring 100 points in its previous game. The Cardinals have a far bigger game on deck this Saturday when they travel to Cincinnati to meet the AAC-leading Bearcats, who they trail by 1 1/2 games. South Florida plays respectable defense, can slow the pace down and has revenge for an embarrassing 39-point home loss to Louisville. |
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02-17-14 | NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary -10 | Top | 70-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
There is a clear class difference here. William & Mary is one of the three best teams in the Colonial Athletic Association while North Carolina-Wilmington is the worst team in the league. The Seahawks are 2-15 in their last 17 CAA contests. They have been especially bad on the road losing 13 of 16 times.
But is William & Mary good enough to cover a double-digit point spread against the Seahawks? I believe the answer is yes. The Tribe is off a very disappointing 85-70 home loss to Towson two days ago. That was their first home game back after three consecutive road matchups, a difficult situational spot. William & Mary has covered the past six times following a straight-up defeat. The Tribe also is 9-1 ATS when facing a below .500 opponent. The Tribe shot 36 percent from 3-point range in the loss to Towson going 9-for-25. The Tribe' 3-point shooting also was off in their first meeting against North Carolina-Wilmington. William & Mary missed 23 of 30 shots from beyond the arch in that game for 30.4 percent. Yet it still won 54-50 on the road although the Seahawks had a chance to tie but missed an inside shot with 10 seconds left. William & Mary ranks 19th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.6. They are 53rd in field goal percentage. The Tribe figures to shoot better this time around and won't lack for motivation after the stinging Towson loss from two days ago. The Seahawks aren't good enough to stay with the Tribe on the road if William & Mary plays well. |
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02-16-14 | Wisconsin +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
After a rough 1-5 patch, Wisconsin is turning things around winning three in a row. The last two victories by the Badgers have come against Michigan State and Minnesota at home.
I see the Badgers continuing to salvage their season as they take to the road. Wisconsin is playing much better than four weeks ago when it lost 77-70 to Michigan at home. The Wolverines shot 54.7 percent from the floor in that win, including 53.8 percent from 3-point range. The Badgers have gone back to their tough, physical aggressive defensive approach that has been their trademark under Bo Ryan, a coach I regard as one of the best in the country. The underdog has covered the past five times in this series. Michigan hasn't beaten Wisconsin twice during the regular season since 1998 and Wisconsin has covered five of its last seven road matchups. |
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02-15-14 | Colorado State v. Fresno State -3 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Fresno State is much improved from when it last played Colorado State on Jan. 11. The Rams closed on a 14-1 run making the final score of 76-57 more lopsided than the game really was.
The Bulldogs' improvement began three weeks ago when they took UNLV to overtime on the road before losing by two. Following that game, the Bulldogs have rattled off four consecutive Mountain West victories, winning by an average margin of 14 points. Fresno State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, while Colorado State has covered only 29 percent of the time during its last 28 contests. The Rams are a weak road team, too. Their only away victories have been against San Jose State and Air Force, the two lowest ranked teams in the Mountain West Conference. A key for the Bulldogs is much stronger rebounding. They have outrebounded their last five opponents. |
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02-15-14 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -3.5 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Matchup-wise and situation-wise this one squarely lines up on the side of North Carolina.
Pittsburg is banged-up, weary and mentally down after nearly upsetting unbeaten Syracuse this past Wednesday. The Orangemen pulled out the two-point victory when Tyler Ennis hit a long 3-pointer at the buzzer. That was in Pittsburgh. Now the Panthers face even a tougher assignment - cover a short number at North Carolina against the red-hot and well-rested Tar Heels. North Carolina is 6-1 in its last seven games, playing its finest ball of the season. The Tar Heels have had ample time to rest and game plan, too, having been idle for a week. This is just their second game in 10 days as their matchup this past Wednesday against Duke was postponed due to weather conditions. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is in action for the fourth time in 10 days and could be missing two key players - Lamar Patterson and Talib Zanna. They were both injured against Syracuse. Patterson, who leads the Panthers in scoring and assists, suffered a thumb injury. Zanna, who leads the Panthers in rebounding, blocks and shooting percentage, suffered an ankle injury. Not having these two, or if they are limited, really would hurt the Panthers. The Tar Heels have an excellent point guard in Marcus Paige and they lead the ACC in rebounding margin. The Panthers outrebounded Syracuse, but prior to that had not been rebounding well in recent games. |
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02-14-14 | Pennsylvania v. Yale -9 | Top | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Yale is far superior to Penn especially at home. The Quakers are 1-8 on the road, 3-5 ATS. They have lost their last two Ivy League road games by a combined 39 points and are 3-7 ATS during their past 10 visits to Yale.
Yale is playing its best ball of the season winning four in a row, including beating Harvard, 74-67, last weekend as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Bulldogs have covered seven of their last nine conference matchups. The line is lower than I thought probably because Penn is off a home win against Columbia. The Quakers, though, are 5-17-1 ATS following a victory. |
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02-13-14 | Colorado +10.5 v. UCLA | 74-92 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Yes, Colorado lost star point guard Spencer Dinwiddie. The Buffaloes couldn't beat UCLA earlier this season losing by 13 points without him. That was Colorado's first full game without Dinwiddie.
But defense, coaching and resiliency have kept the Buffaloes competitive. They have won three in a row and Askia Booker, Dinwiddie's replacement, has settled down and actually would rank third in the Pac-12 in assists if his numbers were extrapolated over the entire season. He also is averaging 14.2 points a game. Colorado also can do damage inside against UCLA, who has problems matching up against Josh Scott. Colorado is 18-5 and has won three in a row. The Buffaloes are 24th in RPI power rankings and 26th in strength of schedule. |
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02-13-14 | Arkansas v. Missouri -5 | Top | 85-86 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is a pivotal game for both teams, but Missouri has a strong situational edge returning home after three consecutive road losses, the first time that's happened under Frank Haith.
Arkansas is strong at home, weak on the road. The Razorbacks are 1-9 away from home. They have covered less than 30 percent of their last 76 road matchups and are 2-7 ATS when going against foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Razorbacks are 3-22 on the road and 3-19 versus SEC teams on the road. The only SEC teams the Razorbacks have beaten on the road during this span are Vanderbilt and Auburn. Missouri beat the Razorbacks in Arkansas, 77-75, on Jan. 28. It was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Tigers have covered against Arkansas. The Tigers are guard-oriented, but a key to their win was outrebounding the Razorbacks by 16. Arkansas' lack of rebounding is a real negative especially on the road. |
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02-12-14 | Kentucky v. Auburn +7.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Kentucky isn't the same on the road and has a huge look-ahead game on Saturday against fourth-ranked Florida.
The Wildcats have a losing straight-up record in true road matchups this season. They are 5-15-2 ATS during their past 22 road contests. Auburn has covered five of its past six home games. The Tigers also have covered five of the last six in the series. Auburn is coming on after a slow start, due in part to a very strong schedule. The Tigers are playing much better now winning their past three games. Auburn does face a strong challenge in the frontcourt, but has a tremendous guard in senior Chris Denson, who leads the SEC in scoring at 20.2 points per game. He's been red-hot shooting 56.7 percent from the field during his last four games. |
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02-11-14 | Southern Illinois +17 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Unbeaten Wichita State returns home after a tough two-game road swing having achieved victories against Indiana State and Northern Iowa. The Shockers hold a commanding three-game lead in the Missouri Valley Conference with six matchups remaining.
After this matchup the Shockers go back on the road for their next two games. The Shockers rolled past the Salukis, 82-67, in the first meeting. That was Southern Illinois' opening conference game of the season. I see Wichita State in a letdown spot and Southern Illinois being much improved since that first loss to the Shockers. The Salukis have made several lineup changes since then. They are 5-2 during their past seven conference games. The Salukis have gotten a lift from freshmen Tyler Smithpeters and Bola Olaniyan. Those two logged a combined four minutes against Wichita State in the first meeting. Southern Illinois enters this matchup playing its best ball having won four in a row -three of them coming by 16 or more points - while connecting on 16 of 30 3-pointers during its last two games. The Salukis have covered in eight of their last 11 trips to Wichita State. They played the Shockers extremely tough last season winning at home by two as 10-point 'dogs and losing by six at Koch Arena last season. |
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02-10-14 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Kansas State is a whole different team when playing at home capable of beating any team in the country. The Wildcats have proven that winning eight of the past 11 times against quality foes at Bramlage Coliseum.
The Wildcats not only were sharp two days ago in a 74-57 home win against Texas, but none of their starters were too taxed as nobody played more than 30 minutes. Kansas has great talent, but is inexperienced and not used to playing in this type of road setting. Wildcats freshman guard Marcus Foster has been playing great scoring 57 points during the last two games. Kansas stopped him in the team's first meeting this season holding him to seven points on 3-of-12 shooting from the floor. Look for Foster to have a much better game this time around. Kansas State has the necessary guard pressure to force turnovers and hit their perimeter shots to avoid the Jayhawks' tall front line. |
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02-09-14 | Temple v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Both of these teams are struggling, but the Cougars' last five losses have been against brutal competition - Louisville, at Memphis, SMU, at Rutgers and at UConn.
Now the Cougars step down in class and should get the job done against a Temple squad that lost too much from last season and is 1-10 in its last 11 games. The Owls also are 2-7 ATS the past nine times they've played a foe with a losing mark. |
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02-06-14 | UTEP -2.5 v. East Carolina | 58-47 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
UTEP is in good form. The Miners are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games and have covered in their past five away contests.
East Carolina started fast, but is just 1-6 in Conference USA and 1-8-1 ATS during its past 10 games. UTEP is much stronger defensively surrendering eight fewer points per game in league play. The Miners are No. 1 in Conference USA in defensive field goal percentage. |
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02-06-14 | IUPU Ft Wayne +5 v. South Dakota State | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
IPFW of Fort Wayne Indiana is one of those under-the-radar teams that has been a solid money-maker. The Mastodons are leading the Summit League with a 6-1 mark and have covered 12 of their last 16 games.
The Mastodons are getting points at South Dakota State, a team they are better than. The Mastodons defeated the Jackrabbits by seven points at home last month. South Dakota State is 12-10. IPFW Fort Wayne is 18-6. The Mastodons have covered 78 percent of their last 29 games. They are 10-4-1 ATS during their last 15 road contests. The Jackrabbits outscore their opponents by only one point per game when playing at home. They are 1-7-1 ATS the last nine times when going against an opponent with a winning record. Sometimes dealing with under-the-radar type matchups that look too good often can backfire. That shouldn't be the case here. Sources tell me the Mastodons are much better than South Dakota State. So taking this many points makes sense. |
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02-06-14 | Cleveland State -2.5 v. Oakland | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Cleveland State ranks with Green Bay as the two best teams in the Horizon League. Oakland is down this season, not in that class.
The Golden Grizzlies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games, including 1-4 ATS during their past five home games. They have failed to cover in their past five conference matchups. Cleveland State has a strong history of covering against weak competition going 11-2 ATS during the past 13 instances. |
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02-05-14 | Stanford +4 v. California | Top | 80-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
All games are big in the very competitive Pac-12, but Cal not only has to contend with a solid Stanford club but refocus after its historic upset of top-ranked Arizona this past Saturday.
Stanford is a blue-collar team that usually plays with a great deal of intelligence. The Cardinal has a solid starting five with Chasson Randle, Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis, Anthony Brown and much improved center Stefan Nastic. The Cardinal lost 69-62 to Cal in its Pac-12 opener on Jan. 2. The Cardinal was hurt by Nastic and Powell, who leads the team in assists and steals, fouling out. This would be a very close game anyways, but with Cal's focus under question it's enough to make Stanford a strong play. |
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02-03-14 | South Alabama +13 v. Georgia State | Top | 65-85 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This matchup was originally scheduled for last Thursday but was postponed until today because of bad weather conditions in the greater Atlanta area.
It's a break for the underdog Jaguars. They know Georgia State having lost to them a month ago by 10 points. They've had more time now to prepare. It's a bigger matchup for South Alabama, which needs to get its season turned around in order to be one of the eight teams to qualify for the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. South Alabama has yet to win on the road, but Georgia State is 1-6 in its last seven home games. The Panthers are on cruise control having won 12 in a row, leading the Sun Belt with an 8-0 league mark. Georgia State has a much bigger game on deck traveling to Arkansas Little-Rock on Thursday. South Alabama has the talent level to hang within double digits. The Jaguars rank first in the Sun Belt in defensive field goal percentage. They should have a good game plan in place. The key is playing hard, which the Jaguars should do with a revenge motive, catching Georgia State in a look-ahead spot and knowing that right now they would be one of two Sun Belt teams that wouldn't make the conference tournament. |
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02-02-14 | UCLA -4.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
There are a lot of trends going against Oregon State in this matchup and I think they make sense.
UCLA should play better than it did during a 70-68 Thursday victory against Oregon. Oregon State nipped Southern Cal in overtime on Thursday. The Beavers are 5-12-1 ATS following a victory. I am not a fan of Oregon State coach Craig Robinson. The Bruins have owned the Beavers going 15-5-1 ATS in the series and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Oregon State. The Bruins also have covered during their past six games on Sunday. |
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02-01-14 | Providence -4.5 v. DePaul | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
DePaul is too short-handed to hang with Providence, which is in a revenge spot and off a bad game. The Blue Demons' leading scorer Cleveland Melvin still is under suspension and star rookie point guard Billy Garrett Jr. also is out. This should mean a big game for the Friars' star point guard Bryce Cotton.
DePaul knocked off the Friars in Providence last season. However, the Friars have won three of their last four at DePaul. The Blue Demons are off losses to Villanova, Xavier and Seton Hall by a combined 53 points. The Blue Demons also have failed to cover in 17 of their last 23 home contests and 5-11 ATS following a straight-up loss. |
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01-29-14 | Northwestern +17 v. Wisconsin | Top | 65-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
Northwestern has gotten a lot better since losing 76-49 to Wisconsin in its Big Ten opener on Jan. 2. The Wildcats have gone 3-4 since then, including knocking off Indiana.
Northwestern's four losses during this span have come to Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa twice - all teams ranked in the top 20. The Wildcats are high-energy, smart and play strong defense. They are well-coached under first-year coach Chris Collins. Northwestern is allowing just 53.2 points per game in its last four games. That includes a 76-50 loss to Iowa in its last game. The Wildcats got hammered in the second half because they wore down due to Iowa's superior depth. Wisconsin doesn't have a strong bench. The Badgers are also in a look-ahead spot. Wisconsin just ended its three-game losing streak with an important road win against Purdue and hosts Ohio State on Saturday. Wisconsin is 5-12 ATS during its past 17 home games versus a foe with a losing road record. The Wildcats play a very slow tempo. They can frustrate the Badgers while also killing large chunks of the clock, which is great for such a big underdog. |
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01-28-14 | Missouri v. Arkansas -5.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Missouri has never won at Arkansas in six career tries. The Tigers are off a win against South Carolina, but have failed to cover the past six times following a win.
The Tigers don't generate enough ball movement to hang close against Arkansas in one of the toughest road venues in the country. The Tigers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games and 3-10-1 ATS during their past 14 away matchups against foes with a winning home mark. Arkansas leads the SEC in scoring and assists per game at 16.2. Bobby Portis can cause problems for Missouri inside. Arkansas also is the more balanced team. |
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01-20-14 | Creighton +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 96-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
Too many points for Villanova to be laying to such a quality opponent. The Blue Jays are underpriced after suffering an 81-68 road loss to Providence.
Prior to that, the Blue Jays had won 10 in a row. They lead the nation in 3-point shooting and are second in assists. They also have superstar big man Doug McDermott. |
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01-16-14 | UCLA +2 v. Colorado | Top | 69-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
UCLA's only loss in its last five games came to unbeaten No. 1 ranked Arizona by four points. The Bruins are off an impressive 15-point win against Arizona State this past Sunday and catch Colorado when the Buffaloes are in a vulnerable position.
Colorado was blown out at Washington in its last game. Worse, the Buffaloes lost star point guard Spencer Dimwiddie for the season with a knee injury. Without their leading scorer and assists leader, the Buffaloes committed 20 turnovers and none of their players had more than one assist against the Huskies once Dimwiddie went out of the game. Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven Pac-12 games. |
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01-14-14 | Kentucky v. Arkansas +1 | Top | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Arkansas walloped Kentucky at home last season, 73-60, and I see the Razorbacks doing it again this season. The home/road splits clearly indicate this.
Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home contests. The Razorbacks average nearly 16 more points per game at home than on the road Kentucky is 1-9-2 ATS during its past 12 road matchups and have historically struggled in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks had won 23 straight at Bud Walton Arena until losing in overtime to 10th-ranked Florida this past Saturday. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in assists. They have three solid guards. Arkansas is averaging more than 94 points a game during its last four home contests. Arkansas also has the upfront defense to contain Kentucky star Julius Randle. |
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01-09-14 | Arizona State v. USC +4 | 79-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Arizona State has problems with up-tempo teams and catches USC, off a humiliating 107-73 loss to UCLA this past Sunday. The Trojans can't wait to get back on the court after suffering through nearly a week of embarrassment. This has been a close series with seven of the last nine games determined on the last two possessions. The home team is 10-4-1 ATS. USC is helped by getting back J.T. Terrell from suspension.
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