This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games.

The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago.

The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play.

Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season.

Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak.

The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight.

I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite.

That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games.

Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records.

San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC.

The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine.

San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games.

I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation.

Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. 

South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home.

So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games.

Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards.

The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. 

I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. 

Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep.

How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row.

Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points.

Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games.

Underrated 11-9 Temple hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points this season. I understand the Owls haven't met a team as good as Houston. But I do see this line as being inflated.

The Owls are playing well with five wins in their last seven games going 6-1 ATS during this time frame. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road contests when matched against a foe with a home winning percentage of more than .600.

Houston hasn't looked sharp in two of its last three home games. The Cougars struggled to beat South Florida, 83-77, as a 23 1/2-point favorite and only beat Central Florida, 71-65, as a 15 1/2-point favorite.

Rutgers is having a strong season breaking into the Top-25. But the Scarlet Knights have never won at Michigan State. I don't see that changing here.

The Spartans are off tough losses against Illinois and third-ranked Purdue, 64-63. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Spartans and they are home.

Michigan State has played very strong offenses this season yet rank 36th in defensive efficiency. I see the Scarlet Knights have problems scoring.

Vanderbilt is battle-tested, at home and draws the Crimson Tide being possibly distracted by Darius Miles being kicked off the team after he was arrested and charged with murder in a shooting death of a young mother.

Alabama is playing well, but is in a letdown spot after burying LSU, 106-66, this past Saturday.

Vanderbilt has played three straight ranked teams. The Commodores are better than their 9-8 record. Just ask 15th-ranked Arkansas. Vanderbilt defeated the Razorbacks, 97-84, at home this past Saturday.

Alabama has been at its point spread-worst when playing on Tuesday going 1-10 ATS the past 11 times.

It shouldn't surprise that Idaho is last in the Big Sky Conference at 0-5. The Vandals are 6-12 overall.

Montana State is second in the Big Sky at 5-1. The Bobcats are 12-7 overall. They have covered the past six times against opponents with a losing record.

Montana State is playing well, winning and covering each of its last four games. Each of the victories was by double-digits.

By contrast, Idaho has lost six in a row with five of those defeats occurring by double-digits.

Look for this pattern to continue here.

UC Riverside is 5-1 in the Big West Conference and 12-6 overall. Cal Poly is 1-4 in the conference and 7-10 overall. The Highlanders have covered the last nine times against sub .500 opponents.

The Highlanders have held their last four foes to an average of 59 points. Cal Poly is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 61.3 points. Riverside averages 11 more points per game than Cal Poly.

The Mustangs are averaging only 53.4 points during their past four games.

Princeton had won four in a row until suffering a two-point road loss to Brown this past Saturday. The Tigers have covered six of their last seven road games.

Princeton is much stronger defensively than Penn, giving up eight fewer points per game than the Quakers.

Penn has dropped two of its last three Ivy League games.

I'm going to accept this many points with Ohio State in stop-the-pain mode. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row. However, two of those defeats were in the final seconds in a two-point loss to Purdue and a three-point defeat to Minnesota as big favorites. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS following a loss. The Buckeyes also beat Rutgers earlier this season.

Rutgers is a bit fat and happy after pulling out a 65-62 win against Northwestern this past Wednesday.

This is USC's first home game since Dec. 18. I'm expecting a big performance from the Trjoans, who lost the past two games of their three-game Pac-12 road trip.

USC has won seven of its eight home games. Colorado's only road victory came against weak Stanford. The Buffaloes have suffered road defeats to Grambling, Washington and California. Colorado was double-digit favorites against Gambling and California.

This easily is the Buffaloes' toughest road task. I'm not looking for them to pass it. USC is the better defensive team and a much better free throw shooting team.

Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row.

Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team.

Seton Hall tends to play to the opposition's level. The Pirates are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing foes that have a winning percentage below .400. 

Georgetown fits that category. The Hoyas are desperate for a victory having lost seven in a row. 

The Hoyas actually average more points per game than Seton Hall although they play far worse defense.

This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times.

This number came up short, according to my power rankings so I'm on host Morgan State, which is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.

The Bears are playing their best ball of the season winning three in a row.

South Carolina State is 3-14. The Bulldogs have been blown out in their last three games, losing by double-digits each time. They could be the worst defensive team in the nation giving up 86.3 points.

California is beginning to play better going 2-1 in its last three games. The Bears have gotten a boost from transfer guard DeJuan Clayton, who has played in the last two games after missing the first 13 due to a hamstring injury. 

But mainly this is a fade on Stanford. The Cardinal aren't that much better than Cal, certainly not where this point spread is at. 

The Cardinal are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS. They haven't played a hard schedule either. 

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 10 of the last 14. That's the way I'm going.

This is too many points for Iona to be laying in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference battle. 

Both teams are solid defensively giving up 66 points per game. 

This has been an underdog series with the team getting points covering the past five times. 

I just see this as too many points for Missouri State to be laying given the spot and series history.

The underdog has covered 69 percent of the last 27 meetings. Missouri State is in a letdown spot after a 52-49 win against Drake on New Year's Day in perhaps its biggest win of the season.

The Purple Aces have yet to win in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. They should play hard here.

Iowa State's defensive pressure should keep the Cyclones in this one - if not pulling the outright upset.

The Cyclones are playing well with a three-game win streak. They rank ninth in scoring defense giving up just 57.3 points per game, while forcing 20.8 turnovers a game. That's the most among major-conference schools.

Oklahoma has a minus 1.9 turnover margin, which is the worst in the Big 12. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and is second in the country with a plus 7.8 turnover margin.

This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country.

Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup.

Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes.

Other than perhaps Grambling State, the Southwestern Athletic Conference isn't very good at all. So my eyebrows are raised when I see one team favored by so much against another team.

Arkansas Pine Bluff and Alabama A&M are each 4-9. I have them close to even power rating-wise. So I see this as too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying.

Arkansas Pine Bluff is the better defensive team ranking 207th allowing 69.6 points a game. Alabama A&M gives up 76.8 points a game, which ranks the Bulldogs 338th. The Golden Lions are above average in 3-point defense. That's a key because the Bulldogs' strength is 3-point accuracy. 

The Golden Lions are 5-1 ATS the past six times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulldogs are 6-13 ATS the past 19 times when facing a foe with a below 40 percent winning percentage. 

I don't trust Florida to step up in class here. The Gators have lost neutral-court games to West Virginia, Xavier and Oklahoma by nine points in their last game eight days ago.

The Gators' up-tempo style isn't a good fit against Auburn's stubborn defense. The Tigers rank in the top-15 in defensive efficiency, 3-point defense and blocked shots.

The Tigers are 7-0 at home where they've been for the last week after an impressive, 84-61, road win against Washington. 

Notre Dame has failed to cover its last five games. I see the Irish being overvalued again in this matchup.

The Irish rely on their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation in 3-point percentage. But Jacksonville can frustrate Notre Dame with its defense. The Dolphins give up the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 58.9 and rank 27th in 3-point defense.

Notre Dame has a far bigger game on deck than this non-conference matchup against an Atlantic Sun Conference opponent taking on No. 14 and ACC leader Miami on Friday.

The Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when meeting an above .500 foe.

Kent State checks a lot of boxes for me. I was high on the Golden Flashes and the MAC entering the season and I still feel that way. Kent State ranks 88th in scoring at 77.5 points a game and rates 38th in scoring defense holding opponents to 62 points a game.

The Golden Flashes have an excellent all-around player in Sincere Carry, have major experience on New Mexico State and are the superior free throw shooting team.

I make Kent State nearly a double-digit favorite so I'll lay this small number of points.

Middle Tennessee State giving up a season-high in points while being upset at home, 82-73, by Tennessee-Chattanooga in its last game raises a red flag for me.

This is a short road trip for Murray State. I see the Racers keeping this close if not pulling the outright upset. Murray State is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times facing an above .500 foe.

The Racers average more points per game than Middle Tennessee State and are a far better free throw shooting team than the Blue Raiders, who rank 335th in free throw percentage making only 63.8 percent of their free throws.

St. John's has had only one true road game - and the Red Storm lost that one to Iowa State, 71-60, earlier this month. 

I don't trust the Red Storm away from home especially against Villanova, which is coming on. 

The Wildcats are 4-0 since big man Cam Whitmore, their third-leading scorer, returned four games ago. The Wildcats have knocked off Oklahoma, Boston College, Penn and Saint Joseph's during this span. 

Both Pittsburgh and Syracuse have stepped up their games after slow starts. I just see the Orange's defense and home-court being too much for Pittsburgh to overcome.

The Orange are 5-0 this month with two of the wins coming against Notre Dame and Georgetown.

Syracuse ranks No. 1 in the ACC in defensive field goal percentage and blocked shots. The Orange also are averaging nearly eight steals a game.

I don't see the Panthers being efficient enough with the basketball and hitting enough outside shots to loosen up the Orange inside.

This should be a wild game with lots of points. Belmont is the 11th-best 3-point shooting team in the nation. Tennessee-Chattanooga ranks 333rd in 3-point defense. The Mocs are terrible in defensive transition. 

The tempo should be fast here, which is the way Belmont likes it. So I'm going to take this many points with the Bruins, who should be live the entire game with their 3-point accuracy. 

This may be the only time that I lay points with Manhattan all season. But it's justified because the Jaspers are hosting Central Connecticut State.

Manhattan is 3-6, but has a winning ATS mark. The Blue Demons have a losing ATS mark and are 1-10 overall.

Giving home-court edge, I would rate Manhattan as double-digits better than Central Connecticut State.

The Jaspers are much better statistically. The Blue Demons rank 342nd offensively and 336th in defensive field goal percentage.

Too many points for Louisiana Lafayette to be laying in this neighborhood rivalry matchup. McNeese should draw plenty of fan support with tickets specially priced at $5. 

The Ragin Cajuns have a far superior 9-1 record. But the 3-7 Cowboys have played a tough schedule and have a winning point spread mark. During their last five games, McNeese State played Iowa State, Northern Iowa, who they upset as 15 1/2-point road 'dogs, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin and Baylor. 

I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home.

Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points.

The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game.

Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings.

I don't see High Point getting enough respect with this point spread against Queens, which is in its first season of Division I.

High Point averages 86.3 points a game. The Panthers also rank in the top 35 in 3-point defense.

The Panthers held their own against UNLV. They've beaten North Florida, Elon, Tennessee State, Central Michigan and Furman in impressive fashion during their last game, 85-82, as an 11 1/2-point road 'dog.

Queens has played an easier schedule. The Royals' last game, for instance, was against Paine.

VMI isn't a great team by any stretch. But the Keydets average 77.3 points and should not be an underdog to Presbyterian.

Presbyterian, losers of six in a row, could be the worst shooting team in the country. The Blue Hose only average 60.6 points. They are shooting 38.1 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3-point range. They lack size, too, and are terrible from the free throw line at 62.7 percent. 

I think the oddsmaker is way off making the Blue Hose a favorite especially in this mid-size price range. 

Michigan barely escaped Ohio at home in its last game, winning in overtime this past Sunday as a 14 1/2-point home favorite. 

Now the Wolverines are laying a big number against Jackson State, who has two very good players and plays in the underrated Southwestern Athletic Conference. I find this number to be too large so I'm on the underdog Tigers. 

Jackson State is 0-3 with losses to Abilene Christian, Tulsa and Little Rock by an average of six points. The Tigers are just two years removed from dominating the SWAC. Now they are rebuilding under first year head coach Mo Williams, a former NBA All-Star. Williams has two excellent players to build around in Ken Evans and Trace Young, who transferred from Wyoming. Jackson State is averaging 75.3 points a game. 

Michigan could have fewer fans than normal for this home contest due to Thanksgiving break. The Wolverines' focus may be off, too. 

Central Michigan went 7-23 last season under its first-year coach Tony Barbee. The Chippewas aren't going to be very good this year either. A lone victory against Eastern Illinois is not impressive.

High Point has one of the best scorers in the nation, Jaden House. He's averaging 22.8 points. High Point is the ninth-highest scoring team in the nation. The Panthers have too much firepower for Central Michigan.

I find this line short as Nevada should beat Texas Arlington by double-digits.

The Wolf Pack rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Texas Arlington lost its three best scorers from last year's squad, which lost 18 of 29 games. The Mavericks' scoring numbers are skewed because they played two non-Division I cupcakes.

By most ratings, the Mavericks are worse than any team in the Mountain West Conference. So Nevada should have no problem here.

This is too generous of a point spread so I'm getting involved with the home underdog. 

Both teams are 3-0. This is Utah State's first road game of the season and biggest test.

Steve Lavin has raised the talent level at San Diego bringing in several transfers from the Pac-12. One of the Toreros' victories this season is against Florida Gulf Coast, a team that upset USC by 13 points on the road.

San Diego ranks 31st in the country in 3-point shooting. The Toreros also are 12th in turnover percentage. That's an impressive combination of limiting turnovers while being highly accurate from beyond the arc. 

Troy may have a difficult time getting up for this game after upsetting Florida State on the road this past Monday as a double-digit 'dog.

That victory has caused this line to be inflated. Merrimack is at Troy's level. Merrimack has a good player in Jordan Minor.

Troy was picked to finish 10th in the Sun Belt Conference.

This game is being played at a neutral site. Troy is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated.

Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. 

The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. 

The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. 

I have St. Peter's power-rated higher than this spread number. The Peacocks have been an excellent ATS team going 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games for 78 percent. They have covered in their last six home games. 

West Virginia is off a very satisfying, 81-56, victory against Pittsburgh in its Backyard Brawl matchup. I don't see the Mountaineers being as intense as Morehead State for this matchup.

The Eagles have been pointing to this rematch after West Virginia eliminated them, 84-67, in a first round NCAA Tournament game last year. 

Morehead State is off an impressive, 62-55, victory against Bellarmine. 

Denver has had two easy games so far this season beating Idaho and Colorado College. The Pioneers struggled against Idaho failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. They face stronger competition here against Sacramento State.

The Hornets are defensive-minded under new coach David Patrick. Their half-court ways and height should bother Denver, which has faced two easy defenses.

Sacramento State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games going back to last season. Denver has failed to cover in its last five lined home games.

Missouri didn't cover against Penn in its last game this past Friday, winning 92-85 as a 12 1/2-point home favorite. I had Penn in that game with part of my handicap being the Tigers are breaking in a new roster and coach so it's going to take time for them to jell.

I'm going to double down and fade the Tigers again believing this point spread is too high.

Missouri is 2-0, but giving up 88 points a game. Both of its previous opponents - Penn and Southern Indiana - shot 50 percent from 3-point range. Lindenwood made 12 of 26 3-point shots in its last game.

Now that some teams have played a game, you can start to develop a feel for teams. Maryland opened with a 71-49 home win against Niagara on Monday. Western Carolina also opened its season on Monday covering as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs in a 68-55 loss to Georgia.

Despite their 22-point victory, the Terrapins are not in rhythm yet with a new coach, Kevin Willard, and a roster that is stacked with transfers.

This is what Willard was quoted as saying after Maryland's victory against Niagara: ''It has been a crazy seven months to put together this roster and get these guys playing. We're not close to being good yet. ...''

Western Carolina was encouraged by its showing against Georgia. The Catamounts are excited to be facing another major conference team in Maryland. They want to prove something. The Terrapins won't be taking this early non-conference matchup as serious. Willard's agenda against this overmatched opponent isn't to run up a score, but get a feel for his entire roster and figure out his rotation.

Pro prospect Omari Moore is back for San Jose State. That makes the Spartans respectable.

The combination of Moore and the Spartans' size advantage along with home-court should enable San Jose State to cover this number.

Georgia Southern has regressed under third-year coach Brian Burg. The Eagles have won just 13 games during each of the last two seasons. They were 5-11 in the Sun Belt Conference last season.

San Jose State had a dismal conference record, too, last season. But the Spartans play in the stronger Mountain West Conference. They will be better this season.

Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas.

No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed.

Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter.

North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke.

Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise.

Duke often is overvalued. I find that to be the case once again here. 

The Tar Heels knocked off Duke, 94-81, as 11-point road 'dogs on March 5 in Mike Krzyzewski's final home game. So I'm not buying into the Tar Heels being an underdog in New Orleans on a neutral court. If Duke were laying four or more points to North Carolina during the team's past 10 meetings, the Blue Devils would be 2-8 ATS. 

North Carolina has come on strong, winning 16 of its last 19 games. The Tar Heels have defeated many elite foes during this span, not just Duke. Among North Carolina's victories were wins against UCLA, Baylor, Virginia, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Marquette and surprising St. Peter's.

Duke ranks 13th in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.9 percent. Yet Duke has shot far better during its four NCAA Tournament games never dipping below 52 percent from the floor. The Blue Devils are shooting a combined 53.8 percent from the floor during their last four games. I can't see Duke sustaining that sizzling shooting especially given the tough shooting environment in the spacious New Orleans Superdome. 

The Tar Heels have stepped up their defense, too, holding their last two opponents - St. Peter's and UCLA - to a combined average of 57.5 points. 

This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense.

The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though.

Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament.

Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 
I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads.

Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. 

I'm surprised this line is where it is. My power ratings have Northern Colorado as the much better team. So I'll be on the Bears in this CBI Tournament quarterback matchup.

Northern Colorado averages 78.7 points a game, which ranks 27th in the country. The Bears are the 11th most accurate 3-point shooting team in the nation. Asheville is strong defensively against the 3-pointer, but its offense can't match the Bears and it gives up a lot of two-pointers. 

Senior guard Daylen Kountz is the best player on the court giving Northern Colorado that edge. 

Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue.

The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard.

Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018.

I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense.

Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game.

It's a big drop from just missing out on going to the NCAA Tournament to participating in the College Basketball Tournament. 

I don't think UNC Wilmington is too excited playing in this tourney after coming within one win of reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Seahawks fell to Delaware, 59-55, in the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament title game. 

The Keydets rank 19th in the country in scoring at 79.5 points. That's more than eight points per game than what Wilmington averages. 

VMI is strong in the middle with center Jake Stephens and has a dangerous 3-point shooter in Kamdyn Curfman. The Keydets are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games.

Wilmington is ranked 177th in the much-respected Ken Pomeroy's ratings. VMI is rated 159th, according to Pomeroy. 

Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years.

Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game.

Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game.

Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances.

New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor.

I want defending national champion Baylor going for me and the point spread is reasonable enough to back the Bears. Baylor has won seven straight NCAA Tournament games, covering the spread in its past six. 

This game is being played in Fort Worth, Texas so Baylor has a home state advantage. Both teams have short rotations usually using just seven players. The Bears are off a 85-49 blowout victory against Norfolk State on Thursday and had less traveling than North Carolina. 

The Bears give up nine fewer points per game than North Carolina. They rank 12th in the nation in 3-point defense compared to the Tar Heels placing 256th in that category. 

It's worth noting that streak shooter Matthew Mayer scored a career-high 22 points against Norfolk State hitting 8 of 12 shots from the floor and 4 of 7 3-pointers. 
The Tar Heels have failed to cover the past six times they've been an NCAA Tourney underdog. 

There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means.

Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble.

Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten.

The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that.

I don't like nor trust TCU's offense against Seton Hall's defense, which ranks 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are 249th in scoring at 68.4 points per game. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

Seton Hall has won eight of its last 10 games. I like the Pirates' backcourt of Jared Rhoden and point guard Kadary Richmond, who is past his thumb injury. I see them carrying the Pirates to victory.

I suspected the Big Ten to be overrated with overinflated lines in this NCAA Tournament. Judging by Thursday's results that perception could be true. Iowa was upset by Richmond and Indiana was blown out by St. Mary's. That's a danger sign for Illinois, which was upset by the Hooisers in the Big Ten Conference Tournament quarterfinals.

There's also recent history. The Illini were a No. 1 seed last season in the NCAA Tourney and lost to Loyola of Chicago in the second round as a seven-point favorite.

Illinois is just 4-3 in its last seven games with none of its victories during this time frame coming by more than eight points.

Tennessee Chattanooga is a dangerous opponent for Illinois because the Mocs can keep Kofi Cockburn from dominating the paint with 6-foot-10 Avery Diggs and 6-9 Silvio De Sousa. They also have a dominant scorer in guard Malachi Smith, who averages 20.1 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor.

The Mocs are 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times as an underdog.

I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT.

Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored.

Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio.

Wyoming is 25-8 finishing fourth in a very tough Mountain West Conference this season. The Cowboys have a tremendous pair in center Graham Ike and guard Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming is 11-4 the past 15 times as an underdog. Indiana had a very strong Big Ten Tournament covering all three of its games posting upset wins against Michigan and Illinois before falling by three points to Iowa as a 5 1/2-point 'dog.  Perhaps the Hooisers peaked in the tournament as they were 2-7 during their past nine regular season games. Indiana is a very poor free throw shooting team and I don't trust its offense. Wyoming outscored Indiana by nearly three points per game. The Cowboys also have the better 3-point defense. 

Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. 

Vanderbilt had an impressive SEC Tournament knocking off Georgia and Alabama before falling to Kentucky by six points while covering as 11-point underdogs. That helped earn Vanderbilt its first postseason invitation in five years. Vanderbilt is 15-15, which is a nice improvement on last season's nine win team.

But I'm not sure how motivated the Commodores will be now in this first round NIT matchup. Belmont should be fired-up, though. The Bruins also are located in Nashville and would like nothing more than to upset their neighborhood rival. 

Belmont has excelled when getting points covering 12 of the last 16 times it has been a 'dog. The Bruins, unlike Vanderbilt, also have NIT experience having competed five times in the tournament during the past six years. 

I understand the oddsmaker making St. Peter's the favorite against Monmouth in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament title game. The Peacocks won both regular-season meetings, although the games were close. St. Peter's combined winning margin in the two games was 10 points.

But I consider these two teams even. Monmouth has more victories with a season record of 21-12 compared to St. Peter's 18-11.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup played in spacious Boardwalk Hall. The Hawks have covered the past seven times they've been underdogs and are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times going against above .500 teams.

These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State.

All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points.

Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed.

A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday.

This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning.

Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January.

Iowa is peaking at the right time. The Hawkeyes have won and covered six of their last seven games with the only blemish being a two-point road loss to Illinois. Iowa just blew out Northwestern, 112-76, on Thursday.

The Hawkeyes entered the Big Ten Conference Tournament as the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.3 points. That's 16 points more per game than Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights average 67 points. That average shrinks to 62 if you count just their last four games.

This is a big revenge spot for Iowa. The Scarlet Knights held them to a season-low when they beat Iowa, 48-46, at home on Jan. 19.

Power rating-wise I have these two Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference teams ranked close to even. If anything, a slight edge to South Carolina State.

So seeing this point spread, I'm compelled to get involved with South Carolina State. The Bulldogs are 15-15, while Morgan State is 12-13.

South Carolina State is 12-5-2 ATS when going against opponents with a losing record.

Norfolk State is the top team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. Delaware State is the worst team.

But I'm going to be on the Hornets because this line is too inflated.

These teams just met in mid-February and Norfolk State won, 69-66.

Delaware State hasn't lost by more than 13 points during its last 12 games. The Hornets have played a number of close games. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times as underdogs.

The Hornets nearly upset Maryland-Eastern Shore in their last game six days ago losing, 63-59, as 10-point 'dogs after trailing by only one point at halftime.

Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. 

Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. 

The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. 

UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

It's a flat spot for the Rebels.

Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season.

The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark.

Upset special here. Texas State enters the Sun Belt Conference Tournament as the No. 1 seed. But the Bobcats face danger. They haven't played since Feb. 25.

Louisiana Lafayette is playing its best ball winning four of its last five games. This includes a 67-64 victory against Texas Arlington on Thursday in a first-round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game. The Ragin' Cajuns won't be rusty. They also won't have the pressure on them like the Bobcats will.

The Bobcats aren't a big scoring team. They've produced fewer than 70 points in 10 of their last 12 games.

I have Mercer power-rated high than this so I'm going to back the Bears in this first round matchup of the Southern Conference Tournament 
Mercer is 15-16 while Western Carolina is 11-20. 

This game is at a neutral site. More reason not to like Western Carolina. The Catamounts are 3-13 in away/neutral site games. 

Mercer should face little resistance putting up points. Western Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the nation ranking 337th giving up 77.1 points per game. 

Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus.

St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder.

Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2.

The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record.

Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup.

Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12.

The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

The oddsmaker knows how bad Green Bay is. But he might be a little behind the curve recognizing the improvement with Detroit Mercy.

The Titans have won and covered three of their last four games beating Northern Kentucky, Wright State and Cleveland State during this time span. Those are three of the top four teams in the Horizon League.

Green Bay is 5-24. The Phoenix play their worst on the road, too, going 1-12. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. Detroit is 8-1 at home.

Detroit won't be showing any mercy as Green Bay beat the Titans, 70-63, at home in the first meeting. Detroit's star player, Antoine Davis, had a rare terrible shooting game in that loss.

The Titans are 18-7-1 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes.

This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland.

Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss.

Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday.

San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog.

The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense.

Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.

Illinois is the better team. Says who? Respected rankings and statistics. 

The Illini are ranked 15th in the BPI ratings and 16th according to KenPom ratings. Illinois is 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Michigan ranks 27th in the BPI ratings and 30th in the KenPom rankings. The Wolverines are 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Illinois has the best player on the court if not the entire Big Ten Conference in center Kofi Cockburn, who averages 21.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. 
The Illini have defeated Michigan the past four times, including a 68-53 win on Jan. 14. 

Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against opponents with a winning road record. 

Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year.
It didn't show in the first meeting because the Buffaloes missed 15 of their 20 3-point shots in a 21-point loss, but Colorado can hang within single digits of Arizona based on their size and home situation. 

The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. 

Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times.
 
The Buffaloes normally shoot much better from beyond the arch than they did during the first meeting. Arizona is just average defending against the 3-pointer. 

North Texas has won 13 in a row. A fact the oddsmaker is well aware of. So there is line inflation with the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech has won four of its last five games. The Bulldogs were favored in the first meeting this season between these teams and should have won the game. They blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost, 63-62. So there is strong revenge motivation.

The Bulldogs might have the Conference USA Player of the Year in big man Kenneth Lofton Jr., who averages 16.7 points and 10.7 rebounds. North Texas likes to pound inside. That's a big part of the Mean Green offense. Lofton, a huge wide body at 275 pounds, can make that difficult.

Discounting a 63-60 loss to UTEP, the Bulldogs are averaging 86.5 points in their last four games.

Louisiana Tech has been strong on the road covering 16 of its last 22 away contests.

Xavier is in a slump. Seton Hall has stepped up its game. I see the wrong team being favored here.

The Musketeers may not be fully recovered from their triple overtime loss to Providence this past Wednesday night.

That loss was Xavier's fifth in its last six games. The Musketeers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.

Seton Hall has won five of its past seven games. The Pirates' only two losses during this stretch occurred on the road to Connecticut and Villanova. Seton Hall covered both of those games. The Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last four away games.