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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-23-17	Massachusetts v. George Washington -5		67-83	Win	100	6 h 36 m	Show
George Washington is an average Atlantic 10 team. But they are the superior team here and can take advantage of the Minutemen's struggling defense that has yielded an average of 81.8 points in the last five games. UMass has lost seven of its last eight games. The Colonials come into the game with a little momentum having defeated Duquesne in their last game, 77-70, on the road. George Washington plays stronger defensive at home surrendering 64.4 points.
02-22-17	Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State		63-55	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
Fresno State got hot in mid-February last season ending up capturing the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The buy sign is on the Bulldogs again as they've won and covered their last two games. The Bulldogs have played San Diego State tight during the past two seasons splitting four games with their losses coming by three and six in overtime. The Aztecs aren't scary anymore at home where they haven't been drawing a full house. Only three times this season have the Aztecs covered at home. They've been bad in this role, too, going 2-7 ATS when laying more than seven points.
02-22-17	Drake +12.5 v. Loyola-Chicago		65-80	Loss	-110	14 h 60 m	Show
Drake is going through growing pains this season. But the Bulldogs did beat Loyola, 102-98, late last month. That was the fifth time they've covered against Loyola in the past six meetings. This has been an underdog series, too, with the 'dog getting the money the past five times. Loyola is 1-5 in its last 6. The Ramblers are off a tough loss to Missouri Valley Conference co-leader Illinois State falling 65-63 this past Sunday. A long shot rimmed out at the buzzer that would have given Loyola the victory. So it' going to be difficult for the Ramblers to get up for this game, let along cover a big number like this in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley.
02-22-17	Manhattan +7 v. Rider		82-93	Loss	-108	5 h 49 m	Show
Rider may not have its full intensity, which is needed to cover this mid-range number, after upsetting Iona on the road this past Sunday as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. Rider had lost four of its previous five games before pulling the upset. Manhattan won the first meeting between the two schools, 76-73. I don't see Rider covering a number this big in the rematch. The Jaspers have covered seven of the past eight times at Rider.
02-22-17	St. Louis +22 v. VCU	Top	50-64	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace.
02-21-17	NC State v. Georgia Tech -3	Top	71-69	Loss	-105	7 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points!
02-20-17	Texas +16 v. West Virginia	Top	62-77	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times.
02-19-17	Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +4		65-71	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
This is a huge game for Georgia Tech and the Yellow Jackets are expecting a rare sellout crowd in their efforts to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. The Yellow Jackets have held foes to 36 percent shooting from the floor at home. Georgia Tech has covered eight of its last 10 games and is 4-0 ATS during its past four home games. Syracuse has won just two road games all season - by one point and in overtime. The Orangemen's defense hasn't been nearly as good away from home. They have failed to cover seven of their last nine road matchups.
02-19-17	UNLV +13.5 v. San Diego State		64-77	Win	100	5 h 27 m	Show
San Diego State won't have a sellout for the fourth straight game. The Aztecs' home-court isn't as strong as before. Their coach, Steve Fisher, is good friends with his former assistant and now UNLV coach Marvin Menzies. The Rebels have lost six in a row, but four have been by four points or less. San Diego State is 2-7 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The Aztecs don't have enough offense to cover this number.
02-18-17	Florida Atlantic -3 v. Southern Miss		94-82	Win	100	12 h 57 m	Show
Florida Atlantic has won eight of its last 10 road games and catches Southern Mississippi off an overtime upset victory against Florida International. Prior to that victory, Southern Mississippi had lost six of its last seven games. While the Golden Eagles are a bit fat and happy, the Owls are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an overtime defeat to Rice. The Golden Eagles are 7-15-1 ATS following a SU win. I see this line as short to back the better team in a good spot.
02-17-17	VCU v. Richmond +5.5		84-73	Loss	-107	4 h 49 m	Show
This is enough points to get me involved with Richmond in this revenge spot for a loss to VCU at the beginning of the month. The line is inflated because the Spiders are off a 23-point rod loss to George Mason. Prior to that defeat, though, Richmond had covered five in a row while going 4-1. The lone defeat during this span was to VCU. The Rams shot nearly 52 percent from the floor in that game. Now VCU is a good shooting team, but not nearly that good and Richmond is solidly defensively. Only 12 teams have a better 3-point shooting defense than the Spiders. Richmond always has been a good play as a home 'dog going 20-9-1 ATS in that role.
02-17-17	Idaho +5.5 v. Eastern Washington		67-77	Loss	-115	5 h 59 m	Show
Idaho did lose its last game. But prior to that the team had gone 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Expect the Vandal to bounce back in a revenge spot. They were 5 1/2-point home favorites in the first meeting and now the line is the complete opposite. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 7-2-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings.
02-16-17	Wisconsin +2.5 v. Michigan		58-64	Loss	-110	5 h 52 m	Show
The Badgers won't have senior Bronson Koenig when they take on Michigan. But the tradeoff is getting Wisconsin at this number. Koenig, who averages 13.4 points, actually hasn't been that effective since injuring his calf on Jan. 24. The Badgers have the depth and defense - fourth in the nation in scoring defense - to withstand his absence. I consider the Badgers the best team in the Big Ten and they won't lack for motivation following a 66-59 loss to Northwestern this past Sunday that ended their eight-game losing streak. The Badgers have beaten the Wolverines seven of the past eight times, including the last five.
02-15-17	St. John's v. Butler -9		86-110	Win	100	7 h 13 m	Show
I see this as a kill spot for Butler. The Bulldogs are just 1-3 in their last four games desperate for a confidence-building blowout win and in revenge mode, here, too, for a three-point road upset loss to St. John's in late December. Butler is tough at home. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 14 home contests and are 8-1-1 ATS following a loss. They had covered four in a row against St. John's until the past meeting.
02-15-17	Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State		87-79	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
Kansas State has dropped five of its last six games with its lone victory during this time frame coming by just two points. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS, too, when laying less than 10 points. Iowa State has dominated this series winning five of the last six times. The Cyclones have proven themselves as 'dogs knocking off Kansas on the road along with away victories against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. When catching three or more points, the Cyclones are 5-0 ATS. Iowa State has been receiving good low-post play from Solomon Young lately.
02-14-17	Dayton v. St. Louis +14	Top	85-63	Loss	-110	16 h 12 m	Show
OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island.
02-13-17	Rider v. Fairfield -3.5		67-69	Loss	-105	3 h 43 m	Show
Rider is a poor road team especially when stepping up failing to cover nine of the last 12 times versus home teams that are above .500. Fairfield has covered the last four in the series, including beating Rider on the road, 76-67, on Dec. 1. Fairfield leads the conference in two-point field goal accuracy and has allowed an average of 61 points during its last four games. This is a step up defensively for Rider.
02-13-17	Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	78-84	Loss	-110	16 h 17 m	Show
If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire. I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor. The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley. In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps. Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests. The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia.
02-12-17	Oregon State +26 v. UCLA		60-78	Win	100	6 h 53 m	Show
It's hard to make a case for Oregon State except to point out the spot. It's a major letdown situation for UCLA following the Bruins' 82-79 victory against sixth-ranked Oregon on Thursday. Oregon State played the Bruins fairly tight in the first meeting losing 76-63. The Bruins also had just played Oregon before that game. Stephen Thompson Jr., Oregon's second-leading scorer, is from LA and should be pumped. The Beavers have done well from an ATS standpoint in this series covering eight of the last 10. UCLA often is overpriced, which is the case here. The Bruins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Pac-12 games and 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been home chalk.
02-12-17	Nevada +4 v. San Diego State	Top	56-70	Loss	-110	10 h 44 m	Show
These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards. Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again. San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense. The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes.
02-11-17	Siena v. Marist +6.5		84-77	Loss	-110	10 h 17 m	Show
Marist isn't very good. We know that. But Sienna can't be trusted as road chalk. The Saints aren't strong enough.The records bear this out. The Saints have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times they've been favored. Sienna also is just 6-15-1 against the spread the past 22 times it has been a road favorite.
02-11-17	North Texas v. Florida International -4.5	Top	71-90	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green. North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road. The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th. The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game. The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory. Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick.
02-11-17	Fordham +7 v. George Mason		67-73	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
Fordham is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus George Mason. The Rams can take advantage of George Mason being a poor favorite in this spread range - 1-8 ATS laying from 7 to 12 1/2 points - and coming off a 76-69 upset victory against Davidson this past Wednesday night. The Patriots were 11-point underdogs in that game against Davidson. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots' intensity was down a notch here.
02-10-17	Harvard -5 v. Brown		87-74	Win	100	6 h 15 m	Show
The last time Brown defeated Harvard was 2009. The Bears have dropped 14 in a row to the Crimson. I'm going to ride that streak agreeing with the early money movement on Harvard. The Crimson is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Ivy League games and 12-3-2 ATS during their past 17 games. Brown has yet to find consistency dropping six of its last eight.
02-10-17	Dayton v. Rhode Island -3.5		75-74	Loss	-110	5 h 7 m	Show
Rhode Island has been playing excellent defense in winning its last four games. Not only is this a revenge game for the Rams, who lost 67-64 at Dayton, but it's crucial for their Atlantic 10 chances and possible NCAA Tourney berth. The Rams have held four of their last five opponents to below 1.00 in points per possession with the national average being 1.05. The Rams rank in the top 15 in 3-point defense and in the top 60 in percentage of blocked shots and steals. Dayton had a struggle on Tuesday before dispatching St. Joe's. The Flyers have already lost road games to UMass and VCU. Rhode Island is 11-1 at home and is 3-0-1 ATS the past four times hosting Dayton.
02-09-17	North Texas +7 v. Florida Atlantic		70-64	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
Florida Atlantic is in a letdown spot as mid-size home chalk after upsetting Old Dominion this past Saturday as an 11-point road 'dog. Florida Atlantic isn't strong enough to cover this number if not playing well. North Texas is looking for its first Conference USA win and will be loose. The Owls are 1-7 ATS when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points.
02-09-17	Belmont -4.5 v. Jacksonville State		66-53	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
Belmont has too much offense for Jacksonville State and is a far better free throw shooting team. The teams met on Jan. 19 and Belmont won easily, 77-60. Belmont has covered its last five road games and is 18-6 ATS versus opponents that have a winning home mark. Jacksonville State has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home contests.
02-08-17	Stanford v. Arizona -13.5		67-74	Loss	-105	11 h 9 m	Show
I see a blowout here. Arizona has dominated Stanford winning and covering during the past five meetings while winning the last 14 in the series. This includes the Wildcats burying the Cardinal, 91-52, earlier this season. The Wildcats are going to be fired up, too, after having their 15-game win streak come to an end this past Saturday in a bad 85-58 road loss to Oregon. Arizona's front line depth is even better now with the return of Alonzo Trier. Stanford is a bit fat and happy, too, after upsetting Utah this past Saturday. The Cardinal had a rare good shooting game in that matchup. It's not going to happen here. The Cardinal ranks near the bottom in the Pac-12 in all the key offensive categories. Arizona has won 67 of its last 68 home games, including 18 in a row. I don't see Stanford keeping it close at all.
02-08-17	Rutgers v. Ohio State -10.5		64-70	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
There's a major class difference here as Ohio State is coming on and catches Rutgers coming off a huge 70-68 road win against Penn State this past Saturday. That was Rutgers' first road win in 24 Big Ten games. Ohio State is 3-0 versus Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten. The Buckeyes buried Rutgers, 94-68, at home last season. Rutgers is improved, but not to the point where it can stay within double-digits of the Buckeyes in Columbus.
02-08-17	Baylor +2.5 v. Oklahoma State		72-69	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Baylor has lost two in a row. But Oklahoma State being favored against the Bears is an overreaction. The Bears were contending to be top-ranked last week before losing games to Kansas State and Kansas. Now the Bears are in stop-the-pain mode. No Big 12 team plays better defense than Baylor, which gives up the fewest points per game and is No. 1, too, in defensive field goal percentage. Baylor also ranks No. 1 in RPI. I see Baylor, which defeated Oklahoma State earlier this season, trumping the Cowboys this time around with its superior defense.
02-07-17	San Diego State -6.5 v. San Jose State		71-76	Loss	-105	15 h 17 m	Show
San Jose State is much improved. But I don't see the Spartans winning a season-high third consecutive game. San Diego State has won five of seven since opening 0-3 in the Mountain West. Its two losses were by a combined four points. The Aztecs have a plus 34 scoring margin. The buy sign is on them here with San Jose State in a letdown spot and the Aztecs expected to have Zylan Cheatham, Malik Pope and Max Hoetzel all playing. San Diego State beat San Jose State, 76-61, on Jan. 10. The Aztecs are a level higher than the Spartans, good enough to win by double-digits again especially with a full lineup. The Spartans are off a huge 78-68 road win against New Mexico this past Saturday. They were 10 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. That was their first victory ever against the Lobos in 14 tries.
02-07-17	Iowa State v. Texas +3.5	Top	65-67	Win	100	19 h 29 m	Show
I'm playing the letdown card strong fading Iowa State off its monster double-digit upset road overtime win against second-ranked Kansas this past Saturday. The Cyclones pulled the upset by coming from 15 points down in ending the Jayhawks' 51-game home win streak while likely securing their place in the Big Dance with that victory. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS following a spread cover and has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games in Austin. Texas has the talent to beat Iowa State. The youthful Longhorns have begun to play better going 2-2 following five straight losses. Freshman big man Jarrett Allen has come on to average 16 points and 10.5 rebounds during his last 10 games. The Longhorns are tough at home - owning Big 12 victories against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech not to mention losing by only two to then ninth-ranked West Virginia - and have also covered seven of the last eight times as underdogs. Texas has also covered 71 percent of its last 24 Big 12 games.
02-07-17	Michigan State +5 v. Michigan		57-86	Loss	-110	6 h 47 m	Show
Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. Michigan State has the better bench and defense. The Wolverines lack the size and depth to cover this big of a margin against this foe. The Spartans have covered 18 of their last 24 Big Ten games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings versus Michigan.
02-07-17	Alabama v. South Carolina -7		90-86	Loss	-115	6 h 56 m	Show
South Carolina has won four in a row. The Gamecocks rank No. 1 defensively in the SEC. They can easily keep Alabama in check. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in the league offensively. Alabama is reeling from a bad loss to in-state rival Auburn. The Tide has failed to cover in 12 of its last 17 SEC games.
02-05-17	Colorado +7 v. California		66-77	Loss	-102	2 h 5 m	Show
A tough schedule and tough luck made things rough in the early going for Colorado. The Buffaloes started 0-7 in the Pac-12. But four of those losses came by three or fewer points. Now things are turning around for the Buffaloes, winners of three in a row and getting outstanding play from senior guard Derrick White. The Buffaloes are catching an inflated spread here and worth taking. Cal has covered just one of its last six games while going 5-10 ATS at home this season.
02-04-17	UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State	Top	63-72	Loss	-110	16 h 17 m	Show
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe.
02-04-17	Portland v. BYU -19.5		62-73	Loss	-110	14 h 47 m	Show
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss.
02-04-17	San Jose State +11 v. New Mexico		78-68	Win	100	11 h 50 m	Show
San Jose State has finished last the past three seasons since joining the Mountain West Conference. But the Spartans are much improved this season already exceeding last year's win total. The Spartans are keyed by perhaps the best player in the conference - power forward Brandon Clarke. The 6-foot-8 Clarke leads the Mountain West in scoring at 23.3 points a game. He also tops the conference in field goal percentage and blocked shots while ranking in the top five in rebounding. The Lobos are dealing with a cluster injury problem down two starters and a key reserve. One of those out is Tim Williams, the Lobos' second-leading scorer at 17.8 points. New Mexico has been plagued by sloppy ball handling committing 33 turnovers in its last two games. The Lobos are usually overvalued at home, too. They've failed to cover in five of their last six home contests.
02-04-17	Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -10.5		61-76	Win	100	3 h 28 m	Show
The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73. Look for Texas Arlington to get revenge especially being fired-up after getting upset by Coastal Carolina in its last game. The Mavericks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.
02-04-17	Western Kentucky -3 v. Southern Miss		64-47	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
This line opened short. Western Kentucky is more consistent than Southern Mississippi and averages seven more points per game. The Golden Eagles are hampered by their poor shooting - under 40 percent from the field. This also is a letdown spot for the Golden Eagles after they stunned Marshall, 91-76, at home on Thursday.
02-04-17	Elon +5.5 v. College of Charleston		58-71	Loss	-110	10 h 52 m	Show
College of Charleston is a letdown spot after getting revenge Thursday nipping UN Wilmington, 67-66, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog. Elon has won five in a row and has covered eight of its last nine games. The Phoenix are especially tough as a road 'dog covering 16 of the last 21 in that capacity.
02-04-17	William & Mary +1.5 v. Towson		80-82	Loss	-110	9 h 56 m	Show
William & Mary averages eight more points than Towson State. The Tribe is on a nice roll winning and covering the past four times in blowout fashion. The Tribe has covered in six of their last eight visits to Towson State. Towson State just edged Drexel, 104-103, in overtime on Thursday. This is a short turnaround from that huge win.
02-03-17	St. Peter's +9 v. Monmouth		70-71	Win	100	5 h 3 m	Show
St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points.
02-02-17	UAB -5 v. UTEP		59-63	Loss	-108	16 h 10 m	Show
Alabama-Birmingham's class difference should prove itself here. UAB has won seven of its last eight and is 7-2 in Conference USA. UTEP is coming off a surprising 91-68 road win against Marshall this past Saturday. That was just the third time the Miners have covered in their last 11 games. They are 1-5 ATS during their past six home games.
02-02-17	Portland State +4 v. Idaho		72-89	Loss	-110	16 h 8 m	Show
Idaho upset Montana as seven-point road 'dogs in overtime this past Saturday. Now the Vandals are home where they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games. Portland State averages 14 more points per game than Idaho. The Vikings are off back-to-back losses the latter coming to Sacramento State in overtime. The Vandals should prove tough in this spot. They've covered six of the last seven times when going against an opponent with a winning home record.
02-02-17	Santa Clara -5 v. Portland	Top	60-45	Win	100	16 h 17 m	Show
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row.
02-02-17	Northern Arizona v. Idaho State -5		90-91	Loss	-110	15 h 9 m	Show
What does it tell you that the oddsmaker has installed Idaho State, the last-place team in the Big Sky Conference, as a decent-sized favorite against Northern Arizona? It tells me Idaho State is the right side here. The Bengals are in circle-the-wagons mode, have an excellent player in Ethan Telfair and catch Northern Arizona in a bad situational spot. The Lumberjacks just hosted Northern Colorado and North Dakota. Both were revenge games for the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona won both games winning straight-up as six-point 'dogs to Northern Colorado and 9 1/2-point 'dogs to North Dakota this past Saturday. Northern Arizona takes on Big Sky leader Weber State on the road this Saturday. So this is both a letdown and look-ahead spot for Northern Arizona.
02-01-17	Florida State +2 v. Miami (Fla)		75-57	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
This is a stop-the-pain game for Florida State, which has dropped two in a row. Miami is 3-14 ATS as a favorite - 1-8 ATS as home chalk - and coming off a huge 77-62 win over then sixth-ranked North Carolina. Florida State showed some positive signs in the second half of its loss to Syracuse in its last game. The Seminoles present a pressure defense that should cause problems to the Hurricanes, who ranked 260th in assist-to-turnover ratio.
01-31-17	Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham	Top	75-66	Loss	-110	16 h 58 m	Show
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests.
01-30-17	Western Carolina v. Mercer -13	Top	47-62	Win	100	12 h 0 m	Show
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests.
01-29-17	Virginia v. Villanova -5	Top	59-61	Loss	-110	7 h 58 m	Show
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances.
01-28-17	Providence +8.5 v. Marquette		79-78	Win	100	9 h 20 m	Show
Providence has played a tough schedule and is at its best as a road 'dog covering 13 of the last 18 times in that role. Marquette is in a prime letdown spot after its dramatic home victory against top-ranked Villanova on Tuesday. Marquette historically is bad in this role, too, going 5-13 ATS at home versus a sub .500 opponent and is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when laying between seven and 12 1/2 points.
01-27-17	Green Bay v. Oakland -7.5		80-72	Loss	-110	9 h 12 m	Show
Look for Oakland to bounce back from an 88-67 loss to Wright State. The Golden Grizzlies have too strong of an offense to have another bad shooting game. Oakland averages 10 more points than its opponent when playing at home. The Golden Grizzlies also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 games versus foes with a winning record. Green Bay is having a good season, but have a losing road record. The Phoenix have been outscored by six points per game on the road. Oakland scored 111 points in each of its games against Green Bay last season winning by 16 at Green Bay and 18 at home. So this spread isn't out of line.
01-27-17	Harvard -6 v. Cornell		77-71	Push	0	5 h 0 m	Show
Harvard is playing well winning nine of its last 10 games. The Crimson have covered in each of their last six games. Cornell is just 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing foes with a winning road mark. The Big Red lack Harvard's depth, which could prove telling here.
01-25-17	UCLA -5.5 v. USC	Top	76-84	Loss	-105	16 h 37 m	Show
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.
01-24-17	Virginia v. Notre Dame +1		71-54	Loss	-110	8 h 39 m	Show
This is the time Notre Dame finally beats Virginia. The Irish are home. That can't be underestimated. They are 12-0 on their homecourt. Notre Dame has too much offense for Virginia especially from 3-point range ranking ninth in the country in 3-point accuracy. The Irish also shoot much better from the free throw line. In fact, Notre Dame is No. 1 in the nation in free throw percentage at 82.9 while Virginia is a below average 69.4 percent.
01-23-17	UL-Lafayette v. Texas-Arlington -5.5		71-108	Win	100	7 h 38 m	Show
Arlington averages 86 points at home. That's a big reason why the Mavericks are 7-0 at home. They have too much offense and rebounding for Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are playing in their second road game in three days. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 Sun Belt Conference games and can't be trusted on the road where they have been inconsistent.
01-21-17	UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge	Top	105-73	Win	100	19 h 18 m	Show
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge.
01-21-17	Northern Iowa +3 v. Southern Illinois		58-57	Win	100	14 h 11 m	Show
It's been a down year for Northern Iowa. That's for sure. But the Panthers finally have a little momentum winning two in a row. They still can play defense allowing 67.3 points per game and are well-coached. This is a prideful team. I'm going to ride them here in a 'dog role.
01-21-17	Michigan State +5.5 v. Indiana		75-82	Loss	-110	2 h 54 m	Show
I like Michigan State as a 'dog here. Indiana already has lost SU at home to Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans have been idle for a week so they will be well rested and prepared under Tom Izzo. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan State by more than four points since 2013. The Hooisers just lost OJ Anunoby for the season. That's a huge plus for the Spartans, who proved their road toughness by winning in overtime at Minnesota while also covering at Duke and only losing by five at Ohio State last week.
01-20-17	Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Akron		63-70	Loss	-103	9 h 28 m	Show
The last four games between these two teams has been decided by four points or less and Eastern Michigan has covered each of them. Eastern Michigan is somewhat under the radar with an excellent big man, 6-foot-10 James Thompson. He's third in the MAC in rebounds and is second in field goal percentage. Eastern Michigan has the experience, height and good line value to get the cover here if not win outright.
01-18-17	Missouri State v. Indiana State +1.5		73-68	Loss	-107	6 h 26 m	Show
Big revenge spot here for Indiana State, which lost in overtime to Missouri State on New Year's Eve. This has been a home team series with the host going 6-1-1 ATS. Missouri State is playing on the road for the second time in four days. The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS when playing an opponent with an above .500 record at home. The Bears also have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've been favored.
01-17-17	San Diego State -5 v. UNLV	Top	64-51	Win	100	8 h 41 m	Show
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. The Aztecs beat the Rebels by 15 at UNLV last season and then clobbered the Rebels, 92-56, in their final meeting. The Rebels could manage to average only 54 points versus the Aztecs last year and are worse this season. The Rebels are shooting only 36 percent from the field in their last five games. By contrast, opponents are hitting 48 percent of their field goals during this span. San Diego State has a front court edge with big man Malik Pope. Put it all together and this is a cheap price to lay with a much superior foe.
01-16-17	Green Bay +8.5 v. Valparaiso		56-80	Loss	-110	12 h 28 m	Show
I see value here with Green Bay, which is 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 Horizon League games. Valparaiso is down from last season. The Crusaders' adjusted defensive efficiency has dropped 95 places, their 3-point shooting percentage is down five percent and their block percentage has dropped 253 places. The Crusaders lack depth and have backcourt issues with more turnovers than assists. They also have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games
01-15-17	USC v. Colorado -3		71-68	Loss	-110	16 h 6 m	Show
At 0-4, Colorado is desperate to get its first Pac-12 victory. I see that happening here against a USC team minus injured big man Benny Boatwright and who plays much worse on the road. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Colorado had to play its first three conference games on the road and then drew fourth-ranked UCLA at home. The Buffaloes are 7-1 against USC since joining the Pac-12. They have covered five of the past times versus the Trojans.
01-14-17	St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5		56-79	Win	100	24 h 41 m	Show
Unbeaten Gonzaga has another powerhouse team. I believe the Zags are for real and a level higher than St. Mary's. I would lay single digits with the Zags at home against the Gaels. St. Mary's can't match the Bulldogs' scoring and height. The Zags have covered 13 of their last 16 conference games and 78 percent of their past 28 overall games. Gonzaga has balanced scoring and the height with five players 6-foot-10 or taller to key on St. Mary's big man Jock Lonsdale.
01-12-17	UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara	Top	66-62	Loss	-105	22 h 23 m	Show
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength. Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused.
01-09-17	Troy State +6.5 v. Georgia State		80-77	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
Troy is the more experienced and better team here. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. The Trojans played USC tough and is averaging nearly 80 points during their last five games. Troy also is a much better free throw shooting team than Georgia State, which is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Panthers are still trying to recover from losing several key players from a year ago.
01-08-17	Wichita State v. Northern Iowa +10.5		80-66	Loss	-110	13 h 10 m	Show
OK, pile on Northern Iowa. The Panthers are just 5-9 and averaging a puny 63.8 points a game. Wichita State is coming off consecutive blowout home victories against Bradley and Drake. All of this, along with early market activity, has caused the Panthers to be undervalued here. Northern Iowa still plays outstanding defense. They are an excellent 'dog in this spot being home, well-coached and playing at their slow pace desperate for a conference victory. The Panthers are going to do everything it takes to control tempo here. This is a team that did win 23 games last season and knows how to win big games. Wichita State isn't so dominant on the road. The Shockers failed to cover in their lone Missouri Valley Conference away game beating Indiana State by eight as a 10 1/2-point favorite. Indiana State is worse than Northern Iowa. Only twice in the past 10 games against Wichita State have the Panthers lost by double-digits at home. The Shockers' non-home victories have come versus suspect defensive teams not elite opponents such as Michigan State and Louisville.
01-07-17	Furman +9 v. Chattanooga		64-80	Loss	-110	12 h 6 m	Show
Tennessee Chattanooga hasn't been playing well this season. The Moccasins aren't a fast-paced team either. So it's not a big surprise they are terrible when installed as a mid-size favorite failing to cover the past eight times when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman, on the other hand, is very good in an underdog role especially in this spread range where the Paladins have covered the past six times when getting between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman has four starters back from last season and showed its competitiveness when stepping up losing by just six points to Michigan and Georgia as double-digit road 'dogs. The Paladins have covered the past four in this series winning twice straight-up and never losing by more than eight during this span. Furman has covered all four of its true road contests this season.
01-05-17	Davidson +1.5 v. George Washington		69-73	Loss	-110	5 h 29 m	Show
Sharp money has come on Davidson and I agree. The Wildcats have a strong recent history in this spread range covering eight of the last 10 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wildcats also have covered 29 of the last 41 times on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. George Washington has covered just one of its last seven home games. The Wildcats are highly motivated having lost straight-up as an 11-point home favorite against Richmond in their last game.
12-19-16	Troy State v. Wyoming -8		66-72	Loss	-110	3 h 49 m	Show
Troy has covered just two of its last eight road contests. It's Troy's third road game in six days. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS the past 10 times they've been underdogs. Troy nearly stunned USC, though, in its last game losing 82-77 as 22-point 'dogs on Saturday. Wyoming has been home since Nov. 26. The Cowboys have won five straight. This is the final game of a six-game homestand. Wyoming should be back to full strength for this matchup as it was missing three plays during its last game reducing bench strength.
12-14-16	UC-Irvine v. Nevada -11	Top	69-76	Loss	-115	20 h 6 m	Show
Nevada Reno has way too much offense and talent for Irvine, which has height and can play defense but is far too limited offensively. The Wolf Pack are averaging 19 more points per game than Irvine. I like Reno coach Eric Musselman. He's proved especially strong in a favorite's role as the Wolf Pack are 14-3-2 ATS the past 19 times they've been chalk. They also are 14-3-1 ATS during their last 18 home games. Cal Irvine has 23 more turnovers than assists. The Anteaters are shooting 41.6 percent from the field despite a tall front line and hit only 31.3 percent of their 3-pointers. Reno does a great job of not fouling. Irvine averages less than 17 free throw attempts per game. Irvine has no backdoor ability to cover if it should fall far behind, which I expect. This shapes up as a blowout win for the Wolf Pack. The opening number is short.
12-10-16	Michigan +9 v. UCLA	Top	84-102	Loss	-115	8 h 27 m	Show
UCLA has to deal not only with getting back down from the high of knocking off then-No. 1 Kentucky, but a rust factor, too. The Bruins haven't played since beating the Wildcats a week ago. Michigan is a top-10 defensive club. The Wolverines have proven capable beating Texas. The Bruins are in heady territory. Their youth and maturity could catch up to them here against this well-coached, tough Big Ten team. So I'll take this many points.
12-06-16	Brown +13.5 v. Providence		57-95	Loss	-103	5 h 16 m	Show
Brown takes this game much more serious than Providence. It's a very short trip - about one mile - so Brown will get fan support. Brown has covered 20 of the last 28 times going against foes with a winning home mark. The Bears are 6-1 ATS the last seven times taking 13 or more on the road. Brown has needed senior leadership, including point guard Tavon Blackmon who is playing at a high level. Providence just beat Rhode Island in its last game this past Saturday. That was a much bigger in-state game for the Friars.
12-01-16	CS Sacramento v. Pacific -10	Top	58-74	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. Pacific has played the stronger competition and are coming off a road loss to Nevada. This sets up as a kill spot for the Tigers. Sacramento State coach Brian Katz was quoted as saying this about the matchup: "We haven't played great yet. We think we will, but we haven't at this point. We know Pacific is really good, but I like our group in the long term. By league time, I think we'll be very competitive." That sure doesn't sound like a coach confident of his team right now.
11-30-16	South Alabama -4 v. Southern Miss		78-55	Win	100	6 h 52 m	Show
I want the now road-tested Jaguars off a double-digit loss in their last game. The Jaguars are better than Southern Mississippi and have proven themselves away from home beating UNLV. South Alabama also traveled to Europe during the summer and played four exhibition games. Southern Mississippi has played a very easy schedule. When the Golden Eagles stepped up they were hammered by LSU. They lack the size and bench to hang with South Alabama.
11-19-16	CS-Fullerton v. UNLV -7.5		68-77	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
The Rebels don't lack for talent and should play more relaxed after getting their first victory for new coach Marvin Menzies this past Wednesday. Fullerton has an excellent scorer in Tre Coggins, but the Titans are a very bad defensive team. They've given up triple digits in each of their last two games. The Titans are on the road and not in UNLV's class. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven non-conference games.
11-17-16	Connecticut -7 v. Loyola Marymount	Top	65-62	Loss	-105	12 h 12 m	Show
Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference. The Huskies were rated 16th in the nation entering the season, but are 0-2 for the first time since 1968 with embarrassing home losses to Wagner and Northeastern this past Monday. Obviously the Huskies have under performed. Taking to the road could be good for the Huskies in this instance. Certainly a strong, motivated effort should be forthcoming here. That should be enough as there is quite a talent gap. "I'm very positive we can get out of this," Connecticut coach Kevin Ollie was quoted as saying. "I didn't want to be in this position, but I've been here before. I believe in myself, and I believe in this team." Mike Dunlap is in his third season as head man at Loyola Marymount. The Lions went 8-23 in his first season and 14-17 last year. They should be better this season, but certainly not in Connecticut's class. The Lions are 1-1 this season with a win against Wagner and a loss to Nevada-Reno. Connecticut should have its share of fans at the game. Ollie is from the Los Angeles area and the Lions are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.
11-15-16	CS Bakersfield +17.5 v. Arizona	Top	66-78	Win	100	11 h 11 m	Show
Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. Bakersfield catches Arizona a bit fat and happy after the Wildcats knocked off then ninth-ranked Michigan State, 65-63, in Hawaii on a layup with 1.3 seconds left to open its season. The Wildcats didn't have Allonzo Trier, their top scorer from a year ago, in that game and he's not expected to play in this matchup. The Roadrunners have covered 14 of their last 16 games, including their past seven road games.
11-15-16	Dayton +1 v. Alabama		77-72	Win	100	3 h 60 m	Show
Dayton is the better team and the Flyers proved it last year burying Alabama, 80-48, early in the season. Not enough has changed to make me think Dayton isn't the superior team again. The Flyers have all but one starter back and excellent depth with a 10-man rotation. They looked good in beating Austin Peay, 96-68, in their opener. Alabama didn't even make the NCAA Tournament last season. The Tide finished just three games above .500 and was knocked out in the first round of the NIT. Avery Johnson is a nice guy, but his coaching has never impressed me. The early start time should hold down attendance, too, cutting into the Tide's home-court edge.
11-14-16	Louisiana-Monroe +18 v. Texas		59-80	Loss	-106	4 h 42 m	Show
Texas is very young with seven underclassmen in the rotation. The Longhorns were less than impressive in their opener beating Incarnate World, 78-73, this past Friday at home. Texas is 5-12 ATS during its last 17 lined non-conference matchups. Louisiana-Monroe opened with a 96-63 victory against Centenary. This is a huge step-up game for the Warhawks, but they have talent with junior college transfer Jordon Harris, Travis Munnings and Nick Coppola, a preseason third-team All-Sun Belt Conference selection.
11-11-16	Evansville v. Louisville -22		47-78	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
I like the Cardinals to blow out Evansville here. Rick Pitino has installed a new uptempo offense so the Cardinals are going to be playing very fast, which could catch their early-season opponents such as Evansville off guard. Louisville has talent up and down its roster. The Cardinals have won 38 straight home games in November. Penn transfer Tony Hucks and freshman Ryan McMahon showed their talents in Louisville's 109-71 exhibition win against Kentucky Wesleyan last week.
03-29-16	Oakland -6.5 v. E Tennessee State	Top	104-81	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. That didn't happen because Wright State upset Oakland in the Horizon League tournament semifinals. That occurred back on March 7. The Golden Grizzlies had not played since then until dispatching Towson, 90-72, on Monday. Now Oakland gets East Tennessee State, which beat a lackluster Louisiana Tech, 88-83, on Monday. I'm convinced Oakland is past its NCAA Tournament disappointment and will be focused to win this inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. "That's why we wanted to be in this tournament because with the heartbreak of (the Wright State) loss and the expectations of the team, the expectations that we had put on ourselves, I don't think we could have been ready to play four days later in a minor tournament," Oakland coach Greg Kampe was quoted as saying. "So that's why we wanted to be in this and now we're making this a season, and we're going to try to win a season." A motivated Oakland should destroy East Tennessee State, which hails from the Southern League. Oakland finished second to Valparaiso in the underrated Horizon League. No team scored more points per game than the Golden Grizzlies, who averaged 86.4 points and also had the seventh highest free throw percentage and 13th-best 3-point percentage in the country. East Tennessee State ranks 228th defensively giving up 73.8 points per game. Oakland features one of the best guards in the nation in Kay Felder, who led the country in assists with 9.3 a game and was the fourth-leading scorer in the nation at 24.2 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies are an impressive 22-6-1 ATS versus above .500 teams, are 24-5-1 ATS following a victory and have covered in their last six non-league games.
03-25-16	Gonzaga -4 v. Syracuse	Top	60-63	Loss	-105	17 h 4 m	Show
These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. The Bulldogs made their move winning the West Coast Conference by beating Portland, BYU and St. Mary's by an average of 13 points per game. Then in this NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs stretched their winning and covering streak to seven in a row beating Seton Hall by 16 points and Utah by 23. Seton Hall had entered the NCAA Tournament off upsets of Xavier and Villanova. Syracuse was lucky to have even gotten a bid to play in the tournament losing five of its last six games entering the Big Dance. The Orangemen drew Dayton, which was 4-4 and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, in the opening round. The Orange then got to meet overmatched Middle Tennessee State. which just two days earlier had posted one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Tourney history defeating Michigan State as a 16 1/2-points underdog. Neither Dayton nor Middle Tennessee State was nearly as good as Seton Hall and Utah. The Bulldogs have the height, offensive rebounding, passing skills and shooting ability to beat Syracuse's vaunted zone defense with studs Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. Sabonis. Gonzaga has scored 82 or more points in five of its last seven games while shooting close to 52 percent from the floor in its last five matchups. The Bulldogs are doing it on the defensive end, too, holding Utah to 42 percent shooting. The Utes averaged 48.8 percent from the field, 10th-best in the nation. Utah could manage just 59 points against the Bulldogs. Seton Hall scored only 52 points. I always like to back a team that shoots better from the free throw line than their opponent and that's the case here in a huge way with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga ranks 15th in the country in free throw percentage at 75.8 percent. Syracuse rates 221st at 68.6 percent.
03-21-16	Vermont -4.5 v. Seattle University		73-54	Win	100	6 h 35 m	Show
There is a reason why Seattle is a 4 1/2-point home 'dog to Vermont in this CBI Tournament game. The reason is the Redhawks just aren't very good and neither was their WAC conference this season. Seattle is a below .500 team. The Redhawks were fortunate to even be selected to play in this lowly tournament. But since they got past Idaho in the first round here they are. Vermont fell in the America East championship game. The Catamounts are better than Seattle power ratings-wise. The line could be even higher except Vermont didn't look good in opening the tournament with a lackluster 79-74 win against Western Carolina. Look for Vermont to play much better in this contest. The Catamounts are highly motivated to win the program's first postseason championship. If they were to accomplish that they also would set a school record for victories in a season.
03-20-16	Northern Iowa +6.5 v. Texas A&M	Top	88-92	Win	100	14 h 47 m	Show
Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice. Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court. Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season. Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600.
03-20-16	Iowa v. Villanova -6.5		68-87	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
The Big Ten has looked bad in the NCAA Tournament. I'm not a fan of Iowa either. The Hawkeyes survived rather than won their first round tournament game nipping Temple, 72-70, in overtime as seven-point favorites. It's the eighth time in their last nine games the Hawkeyes have failed to cover. Temple outrebounded Iowa by 11 boards. The Hawkeyes got away with that and shooting just 35 percent from the field. Even if they play better versus Villanova - which there is no guarantee that is going to happen - they still lack the firepower to hang within this point spread number. Villanova's Jay Wright is an elite coach. Yet the Wildcats have failed to reach the Sweet 16 each of the last three years in the NCAA Tournament. That's due to end right now. If you go by KenPom.com's adjusted offensive and defensive ratings, the Wildcats rank with Virginia and Kansas as one of the three best teams in the country. Iowa is nowhere near that level. The Hawkeyes also have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 neutral site games.
03-19-16	Yale v. Duke -6		64-71	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Don't get caught overthinking this matchup. Yale is Yale and Duke is Duke. What does that mean? Yale is a smart, fundamentally sound team that upset Baylor on Thursday because of those traits. This is heady stuff for Yale winning its first NCAA Tournament game ever. But Yale is not going to be able to exploit those traits against Duke, which not only plays smart, too, but has big edges in talent, size and big-game experience. The Bulldogs made an amazing 21 of 33 (64 percent) shots from 2-point range against the Bears getting good looks most of the time because of patience and crisp ball movement. Duke is far better defensively. The Blue Devils know Yale's style. Tactics aren't going to work for the Bulldogs. It's going to be talent versus talent - and Duke easily wins that battle and the war. These teams actually met back on Nov. 25 at Duke. Yale hung in for a half, but the Blue Devils figured things out back then and won, 80-61. Amile Jefferson no longer is in Duke's rotation like he was for that game. But this is all part of the Duke is Duke mantra, which is reserves who would be excellent starters on many teams. The Blue Devils have a stockpile of young talent that is emerging at just the right time, including 7-footer Marshall Plumlee, who can be very effective against the undersized Bulldogs. The Blue Devils have a history of peaking just at the right time. They were 7-1 SU and ATS in post-season tournaments last year in capturing the national championship.
03-18-16	Stephen F Austin +8 v. West Virginia		70-56	Win	100	15 h 59 m	Show
There is tremendous parity in this year's NCAA Tournament, more than in most years. So getting this many points with an underseeded Stephen F. Austin team is excellent value. The Lumberjacks are 88-13 and have dominated the Southland Conference going 53-1 during the past three years. The Lumberjacks rank 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.7 and 13th in the country in defense holding foes to 63.2 points per game. Senior Thomas Walkup is one of the best guards in the country. But can Stephen F. Austin step up versus West Virginia? I believe they can. The Lumberjacks upset VCU two years in the NCAA Tournament and lost to Utah last year in the tournament by seven points after trailing by only two with 31 seconds left. West Virginia barely beat Buffalo last year in its opening round NCAA Tournament game. The Lumberjacks are physical enough to handle West Virginia and have the guard play to handle the Mountaineers' presses. This has all the makings of one or two possession game.
03-17-16	Yale v. Baylor -5	Top	79-75	Loss	-105	30 h 3 m	Show
The monster difference between the Big 12 - arguably the best conference in the nation - and the Ivy League doesn't merit this short of a spread. Baylor is way too athletic and talented for Yale, which has been able to feast on Ivy League competition while the Bears have gone against some of the best teams in the country. There is no chance either of Baylor overlooking the Bulldogs after the Bears were stunned, 57-56, by 14th-seeded Georgia State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. Yale hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament since 1962! The Bulldogs also have been distracted by team captain Jack Montague's recent expulsion from the school amid rumors of sexual misconduct. He was the team's fourth leading scorer.
03-16-16	Princeton v. Virginia Tech -3.5		81-86	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
There's enough of a class difference here where I feel comfortable laying this number. Virginia Tech is one of those schools happy to play in the NIT. It's the Hokies' first postseason tournament appearance in five years. Virginia Tech plays in a top-three conference and was competitive in the ACC. The Hokies are 6-1 in their last seven games, including victories against Miami and Pittsburgh during this span. They have covered in 10 of their last 11 home games. Princeton failed to win the Ivy League. The Tigers also are rusty having last played eight days ago when they barely beat Penn, a middle-of-the-road Ivy League team. The Tigers won 72-71 as 15-point favorites.
03-16-16	Nebraska-Omaha v. Duquesne -4.5		112-120	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
First make note this matchup is in the College Basketball Invitational not the NIT. That's important because the CBI doesn't have any teams from the Power Five conferences, or the Big East, this season. Take away those conferences and it leaves the Atlantic 10 as the highest-rated conference according to RPI numbers. Duquesne is part of the Atlantic 10, which is a much superior conference compared to the Summit League where Nebraska-Omaha resides. Factor in home court advantage with Nebraska-Omaha making a rare East Coast trip and this number is worth laying. Another thing, too, about the CBI is the teams have to pay if they want in. Duquesne, unlike some other schools, really wanted in this tournament. The school is reducing ticket prices to ensure a sell-out. The Dukes struggled down the stretch playing in a much tougher league than the Mavericks. Still, just two games ago, the Dukes knocked off NCAA qualifier St. Joe's on the road. Duquesne also lost a number of close games - four of their last eight defeats were by four or fewer points, or in overtime. The Dukes have a good bounce back record covering 11 of the past 15 times following a loss. Nebraska-Omaha hasn't played since March 6 when it lost to Denver in the Summit League tournament. Before that game, the Mavericks also had gone 10 days before playing. That rust was evident against Denver when the Mavericks fell behind by 19 points at halftime. So this is just their third game in three weeks. Nebraska-Omaha has failed to cover during its last four road contests.
03-15-16	IUPU Ft Wayne +11.5 v. San Diego State	Top	55-79	Loss	-110	15 h 18 m	Show
Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne is well rested and excited about making its first NIT appearance since elevating to Division I status 16 years ago. San Diego State is not rested and is not excited about hosting this NIT matchup. It's a huge letdown for the Aztecs to play in the NIT rather than the NCAA Tournament. This is a short turnaround for San Diego State having played for the third time in three days this past Saturday. The Aztecs have had a sellout during their last 72 home games. That streak is going to end here as Viejas Arena only is expected to be half full. I don't see the Aztecs being mentally and physically ready to cover this big of a number. San Diego State has the No. 4 defense in the country. However, the Aztecs average only 68 points per game and their Mountain West Conference had a down season this year. San Diego State also has concerns about the health of its backcourt. IPFW has an RPI rating of 72, which is comparable to the rating Fresno State had prior to the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Bulldogs upset the Aztecs, 68-63, to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Mastodons have the best player in the Summit league in guard Max Landis. They are well rested since the Summit League's tournament was played the previous week giving the Mastodons an eight-day break to recharge their batteries. IPFW can score averaging 80.2 points a game, 26th-best in the nation. The Mastodons rank fourth in the country in 3-pointers made and are eighth in shooting percentage. The Mastodons also are road tested having played 20 times away from Fort Wayne while going 12-4 (75%) ATS in their lined road contests.
03-15-16	Akron +5 v. Ohio State		63-72	Loss	-103	7 h 10 m	Show
Akron will be sky high for this in-state rivalry matchup. Ohio State has far less enthusiasm. The Buckeyes had their course set for the NCAA Tournament. This is a big disappointment for them and their crowd count will be way down. The Zips set a school record for 3-pointers made. They have outstanding long range shooters and a good center in 6-foot-10 Isaiah Johnson. The Zips have a proud basketball tradition and can hang with the disinterested Buckeyes. The Zips also are a much better free throw shooting team than Ohio State, which is a key when it comes to the end game.
03-12-16	Seton Hall +6.5 v. Villanova		69-67	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
Seton Hall is coming on and can win this game straight-up sparked by its star sophomore guards Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington. The Pirates are young but have steadily grown and are now peaking at the perfect time. Yes, Villanova is hot winning 12 of its last 13. But the Pirates are 11-2 in their last 13 games. The Pirates have the necessary confidence to upset Villanova being the only Big East team to defeat the Wildcats each of the past two seasons. They also have defeated Xavier twice during the past two weeks building up leads of 15 and 19 points. The Pirates have covered 13 of their last 16 Big East games.
03-11-16	Colorado State v. Fresno State -3	Top	56-64	Win	100	13 h 1 m	Show
Both teams have strong offenses, but Fresno State is better defensively and is the fresher team. The Bulldogs also are peaking at the right time winning nine of their past 10, including their last seven games. Colorado State isn't as deep as Fresno State and is playing for the third time in three days. The Rams played in the late game last night exerting a lot of energy in upsetting Boise State, 88-81, as a seven-point underdog. The Bulldogs have the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year in Marvelle Harris and beat Colorado State during their lone meeting this season, 87-73, at home on nine days ago.
03-11-16	Illinois v. Purdue -10.5		58-89	Win	100	3 h 21 m	Show
The Boilermakers have the size, situation and revenge motive to steamroll the Illini. Illinois doesn't have great depth and is coming off a huge upset victory against Iowa yesterday winning as a 10 1/2-point underdog. Illinois is 3-8-1 ATS following a point spread cover. There is no chance Purdue takings Illinois lightly especially after losing 84-70 on the road to the Illini in probably the Boilermakers' worst game of the season. Note that this Big Ten Tournament game is being played in Indianapolis, which is in Purdue's favor. All but one of Purdue's starters comes from Indiana.
03-10-16	Western Kentucky +6.5 v. UAB		88-77	Win	100	5 h 15 m	Show
Western Kentucky has covered five of its last six meetings versus Alabama-Birmingham. The past four get togethers have all been decided by seven points or less. This includes the Hilltoppers losing by four points on the road to the Blazers two weeks ago. This game is in Birmingham but not on the Blazers' home floor. While UAB has punched its NCAA Tournament ticket, Western Kentucky is in must-win mode knowing it has to win the Conference USA Tournament to earn an NCAA Tourney berth. The Hilltoppers are playing their best ball winning 5 of their last 6 games while going 6-0 ATS. I don't see the Blazers being as desperate, motivated and focused as Western Kentucky.
03-09-16	Syracuse v. Pittsburgh -2		71-72	Loss	-112	9 h 47 m	Show
Neither Pittsburgh nor Syracuse is playing its best ball right now going into this second-round matchup of the ACC Tournament. But the Panthers match up well to Syracuse. This is proven in Pittsburgh winning the past four times, including going 2-0 this season versus the Orange with both victories coming by double-digits. The Panthers are 14-6 against the Orange since Jamie Dixon became Pittsburgh's coach. Jamel Artis is a key reason why the Panthers match up well to the Orange. He provides the Panthers that needed perimeter shooter to beat Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone defense. Artis is averaging 18.8 points, nine rebounds and six assists during the last four games against the Orange. The Panthers have dropped two in a row. Artis has been cold in those games. However, Syracuse is 1-4 in its last five games. Both teams have posted some good wins, but I like Pittsburgh's chances more than Syracuse's of getting untracked in this game. The Panthers are 10-2 ATS following a loss. Syracuse has had some bad losses and lacked consistency during conference play. The Orange have failed to cover five of the past seven times when facing opponents with a winning record. They also don't play Pittsburgh with much confidence.

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