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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-28-24	Lions v. 49ers UNDER 52		31-34	Loss	-110	17 h 32 m	Show
3 Star play Under The San Francisco 49ers have a very good offense. The Detroit Lions offense is good as well. I still think this total is set a little too high. The 49ers will have Deebo Samuel in this game, but he isn't 100 percent. He's a game changer and him at less than 100 percent is a clear negative. The Lions defense has been top five in stopping the run all season. The 49ers run at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line should be able to get in the backfield some when the 49ers pass it as well. The 49ers defense is really good. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but his inconsistency away from home makes me wonder how good he can be in this spot. The 49ers are third in the NFL in points allowed. San Francisco's offense often gets talked about far more, but the defense has been fantastic consistently this season. A total in the low 50's with teams who don't play that fast and with so much on the line- I think it is a bit too high. Take the under.
01-21-24	Bucs v. Lions OVER 49		23-31	Win	100	47 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Detroit Lions have been a great over team at home throughout the course of the season. Detroit's Jared Goff has some tremendous weapons around him. St. Brown is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. LaPorta is trying to work back from an injury. If he plays it is a nice bonus. The Lions likely try to throw it quite a bit here, which I think helps the over. Baker Mayfield has been good in this Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a big play receiver, and the Lions will have trouble defending him. Detroit's defense was fortunate to not give up more points last week. I'm not convinced they will always be able to bend without breaking in the red zone. Overs in the playoffs in dome games have cashed at a 64.7% clip in the NFL in the past 15 years. The fast track should be great for these offenses. Take the over.
01-13-24	Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5		7-26	Win	100	55 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I see the Kansas City Chiefs as a straight under team in their current form. Kansas City's offense has no longer been explosive at all. The wide receivers are just too big of a liability. Travis Kelce is still good, but he isn't quite as good as he was a few years ago. Miami's offense was amazing against the weaker teams this year, but they weren't consistently great against good defenses. The Chiefs defense is very solid. The first matchup between these two in Germany was 21-14. This game will be played outdoors in some brutal weather conditions. A temperature of around zero degrees during the game with wind chills dropping to 20 or 25 degrees below zero. The key is the wind. In these conditions I think the play calling will be a bit more conservative. The Chiefs have played five straight games under this number. Three of Miami's last four games have stayed under this total. Take the under.
01-01-24	Alabama v. Michigan UNDER 46.5		20-27	Loss	-110	665 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in what should be an epic semifinal in the Rose Bowl. Michigan was the more consistent team through the year, but Alabama's talent is second to none. The Wolverines offense has struggled a bit to get going at times this year. The Wolverines defense has been solid as ever this year. Michigan defensively has no clear weakness. The Wolverines are 6th in YPC allowed and 6th in the country in opposing QBR allowed. While Alabama has been quite explosive on offense, Michigan has done a great job not giving up big plays this season. Alabama's offense has relied more on explosives than normal. Milroe is a fantastic play maker, but he does take too many big negative plays. I think the Michigan pass rush can give him a difficult time here. The Alabama defense is supremely talented. They are good against the run, and the secondary is elite. Michigan is 112th in explosiveness on offense. The Wolverines are just 75th in the country in yards per carry. Without Zinter, their best offensive lineman, I think Michigan will have a hard time just running it right at Alabama here. Michigan is dead last (133rd) in the country in pace of play. The Wolverines are going to be happy to move very slowly and take a lot of time on their drives. Alabama is 105th in tempo, so they play pretty slowly as well. I like the defenses to make it hard for the opposing offenses here. Take the under.
12-31-23	Rams v. Giants OVER 43.5		26-25	Win	100	12 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The LA Rams offense has been on fire of late. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games at 6.2 yards per play. Los Angeles has scored 28 points or more in five straight games. They have scored 30 points or more in four of those five games. The Giants defense is a below average unit. It is hard to see this Giants secondary slowing down Stafford and the Rams good receivers in the passing game. New York's offense hasn't been great, but it has improved of late. They are averaging 4.9 yards per play in their last three games. The Rams defense has been giving up a lot of points late in recent games after they have a lead. New York should get chances to score later in the game even if they aren't efficient early on. Five Rams games in a row have finished with 48 points or more. I think this total is set too low. Take the over.
12-29-23	Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57		36-26	Win	100	24 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Memphis Tigers have been able to make almost every game they play in a shootout this year. In fact, eight of their last nine games have gone over this total. The one that didn't go over was still at 52 points. The Memphis defense gives up loads of big plays. They have given up 71 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Iowa State is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. Becht has done a great job as quarterback for the Cyclones. Iowa State's secondary was pretty good during the year, but they are shorthanded here. TJ Tampa is a star in the secondary and he has opted out. Malik Verdell is injured and is questionable to play too. Seth Henigan and the Memphis offense should be able to do enough to get this game over the number. Memphis is averaging 39.6 points per game this year. This is a better defense than they usually face, but I think the Memphis team speed on offense can get them some scores. Iowa State has a huge advantage on offense, and I like Memphis to be able to score when playing from behind. Take the over.
12-28-23	SMU v. Boston College UNDER 50.5		14-23	Win	100	141 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The SMU Mustangs defense was underrated all season long. SMU ranked fourth in success rate allowed in the country. They were 12th in the nation in YPC allowed. The strong run defense of SMU is key here since Boston College runs it on 60% of their plays for the year as a whole. Boston College has been even more run heavy in recent weeks. Castellanos for Boston College has been banged up and the BC offense has been much more buttoned up of late. Boston College comes into this game very short handed at both running back and wide receiver based on the transfer portal. I don't trust the BC offense to get much done here. SMU is without Preston Stone at quarterback. They are more conservative with Jennings at quarterback. This Mustangs offense is solid, but not spectacular. Fenway Park is the venue here and this game has a history of a lot of windy games with poor weather in general. It's an 11 am eastern kickoff in Boston in winter. The long range forecast calls for rain showers and a decent amount of wind. I like the under even without weather, but this could be a nice bonus too. Take the under.
12-24-23	Browns v. Texans OVER 40		36-22	Win	100	71 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cleveland Browns defense has been amazing at home this year. The Browns defense has been mediocre on the road. Cleveland is allowing just 3.5 yards per play at home. They are giving up 5.9 yards per play on the road. Houston does have a backup quarterback here in Case Keenum, but with another week under his belt it should help at least some. Nico Collins is back at practice Thursday which is a positive development too. The Cleveland offense has been much improved with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Their pass rate has gone up a bunch too. Cleveland's offense is taking more shots down the field, and that is a positive development for over bettors in my opinion. Cleveland has a solid 5.2 yards per play on offense in their last three games. This game being played in a dome which is definitely a positive for the over. At a low number, I'll side with the over here.
12-24-23	Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5		20-17	Loss	-110	13 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Seattle Seahawks take on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday. Seattle is set to have Geno Smith back at quarterback in this one. Smith is still a better quarterback than Drew Lock, and Seattle has some good skill position talent around him. The Seahawks offense is healthier than they have been in quite a while. The Tennessee Titans are a below average defense. They are now even weaker with their significant injury issues. Simmons is a star lineman, and they miss him badly. The secondary is very shorthanded as well. Look for the Seattle receivers to get open a lot in this one. Ryan Tannehill is set to be the starter for the Titans here. While Levis has shown some ability, I actually think Tannehill is at least slightly better than Levis right now. Tannehill has a lot to prove right now too, so I expect him to be aggressive. The Seattle defense is bottom five in the NFL in the last three games, and they are definitely a bottom ten unit for the year overall. This is a low total for the shape of the two defenses here. Take the over.
12-17-23	Cowboys v. Bills UNDER 50		10-31	Win	100	52 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather situations have gotten worse for this game. This is a late game on Sunday and the forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts in the 20's. There is expected to be rain showers at times during the game too. Buffalo absolutely has to win this game. The Bills are definitely playing better of late, and it has been their defense that has improved the most. They are getting a bit healthier on defense. Buffalo is giving up just 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. The Bills have also allowed only 4.8 yards per play at home this year. Dallas has been excellent on defense this year. They are giving up just 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Cowboys have done a good job limiting the big plays. Both of these teams are in the bottom ten in the NFL in pace of play. In this year's NFL this is a fairly high total. Take the under.
12-17-23	Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 34		7-9	Win	100	84 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Carolina Panthers offense is the worst offense in the NFL. It isn't even close. Carolina is averaging a dreadful 4.0 yards per play. The second worst offense in the NFL is at 4.3 yards per play. It has gotten worse in recent weeks too for Carolina, and I see no signs of improvement coming soon. Atlanta is averaging just 4.4 yards per play on the road. Desmond Ridder has been pretty good at home and terrible on the road. These two defenses rank 10th (Atlanta) and 11th (Carolina) in yards per play allowed this year. These are defenses that have a clear advantage going into this game. The weather here calls for rain and winds in the 15 to 25 mph range during this game. This is a field that has been a problem in the past with rain based on poor footing. Take the under here.
12-10-23	Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48.5		20-17	Loss	-110	51 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Buffalo Bills offense is still a top five offense in the NFL. Without Ken Dorsey, this Bills offense has been more aggressive and they have looked to run Josh Allen more often. The Bills defense is still a bit banged up and this unit is no better than an average NFL unit at best. Kansas City's offense has been less explosive in general, but the Chiefs are still top 8 in the NFL in yards per play. The Chiefs have to be aggressive here on offense coming off such a poor performance in Green Bay last week. The Chiefs defense has quietly really fallen off of late. They have allowed 5.6 YPP in their last three games. I think both offenses should play well here. Take the over.
12-10-23	Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 36.5		27-31	Loss	-110	141 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Cleveland Browns offense is a mess right now. Regardless of who is the quarterback for this game, it will be a position where the Browns have a clear weakness. Cleveland's offense is third worst in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. They are only ahead of the lowly Panthers and Jets. The Cleveland defense is one of the best in the NFL and they are holding opponents to an average of just 3.4 yards per play when at home. Cleveland's defense had a subpar performance against the Rams, and I would expect a bounce back here. The Jaguars offense is middle of the pack in the NFL. The defense is a little worse, but they are against a weak offense here. The weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast for this one calls for rain and winds of about 25 mph with gusts above 30 mph. Multiple sites are showing similar forecasts here. We know Cleveland is a place where the weather matters a lot with the stadium so close to the lake. Take the under here.
12-10-23	Lions v. Bears OVER 43		13-28	Loss	-108	48 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Detroit Lions have been scoring a lot of points, and their defense has shown to have major problems in recent weeks. In the Lions last four games, there has been an average combined total of 61.5 points. Detroit is allowing 5.6 yards per play in their last three games. This is looking like a bottom ten defense or so. The Lions are clearly a top five offense too. Detroit has good balance on offense and they have been able to cash in well in the red zone. The Chicago Bears offense is improving. The Bears scored 26 points on Detroit a couple weeks ago and they probably should have won the game in Detroit. The Bears defense is still a below average unit. The total here was pushed down earlier in the week due to potential weather concerns. The forecast here has changed though and the current weather calls for no precipitation and winds of just 12 mph. Take the over.
12-03-23	Broncos v. Texans OVER 47		17-22	Loss	-110	90 h 43 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Houston Texans are 5th in the NFL in yards per play this year. C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense has surprised the NFL in general. Tank Dell has been a great weapon on the outside. Houston would have had bigger numbers on offense last week against Jacksonville if it weren't for a couple questionable penalties called on big gainers. The Texans are unlikely to be slowed down too much by a Denver defense that is still clearly below average. Their recent numbers look better, but their last two games have been against backup quarterbacks. The defense of the Broncos gets a much tougher test here. The Denver Broncos offense is at least an average unit now. The new coaching staff has really helped them a lot. Denver has scored 21 points or more in four straight games. They now go play in a dome against a Houston defense that is allowing 6.3 YPP in their last three games. The fast track here and two offenses with the capability of creating explosive plays at any time. Take the over.
12-03-23	Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 40		6-0	Win	100	22 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots defense is still pretty good. The Patriots are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. New England's defense is put in bad spots, but they are still a quality unit. The LA Chargers have shown the ability to move the ball well, but find ways to not score touchdowns. I think the Patriots can slow them down and limit the explosive plays. New England has a terrible quarterback problem, and they do lack skill position players in general on offense. The Pats offense has progressively gotten worse throughout the year. The weather here calls for rain throughout the game with wind gusts of 20 mph. This should make for some more conservative play calls during the game. Take the under.
12-02-23	Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 48		6-16	Win	100	80 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under FSU put up just 3.9 yards per play on a bad Florida defense last week. I know it is a rivalry game, but that is concerning. Florida had been getting torched weekly until last week. FSU 4th in explosiveness on offense for the year, but likely less explosive with Tate Rodemaker at QB. Louisville defense 40th in YPP allowed, but 21st at PFF in overall defense grade. 6th in defensive line yards. FSU is 111th in offensive line yards. I don’t think FSU can just run it down their throats. Louisville 91st in OFF Line yards. FSU 13th in DEF Line yards. I think the Cardinals ground game has trouble getting going too. The FSU defense has been underrated throughout the season. Louisville's Plummer has been inconsistent at quarterback this year. There is some rain and a little wind in the forecast as well. Take the under.
12-02-23	SMU v. Tulane UNDER 47.5		26-14	Win	100	76 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Preston Stone is a key loss for SMU at quarterback. Jennings has very little experience at quarterback. SMU gave up just 4.4 yards per play in the AAC. Amazing! The Mustangs held 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. Tulane’s offense didn’t really work nearly as well as expected this year. Tulane was 108th in rushing play success rate on offense- very low for a Willie Fritz coached team. SMU 11th in rushing play success rate allowed. SMU has a great pass rush. 5th in the country in pass rush grade at PFF. 40 sacks!! Pratt is good but I think he’ll be under pressure more than normal here. Tulane plays at a slow pace. They run on 60% of offensive plays. SMU offense should be a bit more conservative with Jennings. If anything I would expect more running. The Tulane run defense has been elite. The way to beat the Tulane defense has been passing. Take the under.
12-02-23	Miami-OH v. Toledo UNDER 44		23-14	Win	100	22 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Toledo Rockets won 17-7 last year in the MAC Title game against an Ohio Bobcats team without their star quarterback. Toledo ran the ball over and over again in that game and grinded it out. Now, Toledo goes into the title game in the MAC against a Miami team without star quarterback Brett Gabbert. Aveon Smith has struggled badly for Miami. Miami is going to want to run the football as much as they can and move very slowly. They don't want a high scoring game, because their offense simply isn't good enough to win shootouts. Toledo does give up successful running plays, but they are excellent in the secondary and they don't give up explosive plays. Miami's drives should take a bunch of time off the clock. Toledo had just 4.3 yards per play in their 21-17 win over Miami in the regular season. The Rockets want to run the ball a lot, but Miami has the best run defense in the MAC. Miami has allowed 21 points or fewer in every MAC game they have played this year. I don't think we'll see many big plays here. Toledo likely wins, but Miami's defense won't make it easy. Take the under.
11-26-23	Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 43.5		31-17	Loss	-110	17 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs defense is still underrated. Kansas City fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. Las Vegas has changed their style of play for their new coach. They are running the ball more and trying to keep games lower scoring and win with defense. The Raiders defense is 16th in DVOA and they have a strong pass rush. These two teams are both top eight in the NFL in explosiveness allowed. They don't give up the big plays very often. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo. Las Vegas has had nine games in a row stay under this posted total. The Chiefs have had 3 straight games go under this posted total. A combined 12 straight games under this total. Take the under.
11-26-23	Bills v. Eagles OVER 48		34-37	Win	100	16 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Buffalo Bills are third in the NFL in yards per play and all the advanced stats still show this Buffalo offense as a top five offense. Josh Allen and this offense looked good against a good Jets defense last week in their first week without Dorsey as OC. Buffalo's passing attack has a nice edge over the Eagles secondary. Philadelphia's one weakness as a team is their secondary. I think Buffalo can take advantage of that weakness. The Philadelphia Eagles offense has been a little inconsistent this year, but I think they can play well against a Buffalo defense that isn't good in its current state. The Bills defense has suffered a ton of key injuries. These two teams rank 16th and 17th in yards per play allowed. Both offenses have big play ability. Rain is the in forecast, but there isn't any wind to speak of in the forecast and that is the big key. Take the over.
11-25-23	Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 46		42-24	Loss	-110	134 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Rutgers defense ranks first in explosiveness allowed. The Maryland defense ranks 8th in explosiveness allowed. These two are very good at not giving up that huge play. Rutgers is 127th in the nation in tempo. The Scarlet Knights are going to play slowly, and they are going to run the football as often as possible. Rutgers is 10th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Schiano's defenses always play very hard and this one is no different. The strength of their defense is their secondary. Maryland likes to throw the ball and Rutgers should have the guys to slow them down. Maryland's defense is much improved this year. They are 25th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Rutgers offense has scored 16 points total in the last two years against Maryland. They will likely struggle again here. Rutgers is much better defensively this year than the last two years. Take the under.
11-25-23	Virginia Tech v. Virginia OVER 52.5		55-17	Win	100	25 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Virginia Tech Hokies offense has hit a whole new gear in recent weeks. With Drones at quarterback instead of Wells, this is a much more explosive offense. Drones has been very good running and good enough in the passing game too. VA Tech put up 7.6 yards per play on a very good NC State defense last week. They put up 8.3 YPP two weeks ago on the Boston College defense. Virginia has a good young quarterback in Colandrea. He is a big play guy either way at this stage in his career. He throws too many picks and a pick six is always a possibility, but he is creating big plays for the Cavs on offense too. Virginia has 6.4 YPP on a good Louisville defense two weeks ago and an impressive 6.3 YPP against Duke last week too. Virginia has picked up their pace of late. These two teams are 114th and 120th in the country in explosiveness allowed. The weather calls for a nice day here. Expect some big plays. Take the over.
11-25-23	Middle Tennessee State v. Sam Houston State OVER 48.5		20-23	Loss	-110	117 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The MTSU Blue Raiders passing attack has been much better in the last few weeks. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has 12 touchdown passes compared to just 4 interceptions in MTSU's last four games. The offense has picked up their pace significantly too, and it has been working. Sam Houston State's offense was dreadul early in the season, but they have been much better in the last five games. Both teams are snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds which is far quicker than the national average. A total set this low for a game played at this pace is pretty rare unless there are elite defenses. The MTSU defense is 77th in the nation in YPP allowed and Sam Houston is 99th. MTSU is 11th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. It's the last game for both and I think the offenses will show up. Take the over.
11-25-23	Texas A&M v. LSU OVER 65		30-42	Win	100	21 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Jayden Daniels has impressed me the most of any player in the country this year. He was very good last year in Brian Kelly's system, but this year he has been elite. LSU is clearly putting up as many stats as possible for Daniels to try to get him the Heisman Trophy. Daniels is one of the two favorites (Bo Nix) for the award. Nix is likely to get more games to play while Daniels will not. This is LSU's last chance to feature Daniels and put up a big number. The Texas A&M secondary is banged up right now, and LSU should be able to hit some explosive plays on them. Texas A&M has a good defense overall, but Miami put up 48 points on them and Ole Miss scored 38. The LSU offense is the best one they have faced all seaosn. The LSU defense is one of the worst in the SEC. While we don't know if it will be Henderson or Johnson at quarterback for A&M here, I think they can score enough regardless. LSU has allowed 117 plays of 10 yards or more this year. LSU will score a lot here. I expect A&M to do enough too. Take the over.
11-21-23	Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo UNDER 41		24-11	Win	100	51 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo on Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo are 9th and 10th in the MAC in yards per play on offense. Buffalo had high scoring games in the non conference, but in MAC contests they have had a bunch of low scoring games. Buffalo has seen 5 of their 7 games in the MAC finish at 38 total points or lower. Eastern Michigan has had five games finish at 36 points or lower. These two are the least explosive offenses in the MAC. They rarely get big plays and the defenses should have the edge. The weather should play a big role here. There is rain in the forecast with sustained winds 17 mph and gusts to 25 mph. That should make the play calling even more conservative. Take the under.
11-20-23	Eagles v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5		21-17	Win	100	41 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company, but their defense has actually been their stronger unit this year. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Chiefs have played nine games this year, and six of the nine have stayed under this total. Their highest final total has been 51 points. The Philadelphia Eagles are just 11th in the NFL in yards per play this year. They haven't been as explosive on offense this year as expected. The Eagles defense should be able to get pressure against a mediocre KC offensive line. The weather here could play a role. The forecast is calling for winds of 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph during this game. There is also a chance of showers. Take the under here.
11-19-23	Cardinals v. Texans OVER 47.5		16-21	Loss	-110	44 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arizona Cardinals should be a different offense now that Kyler Murray is back. We saw it already last week with Arizona putting up 5.9 YPP and 25 points against a pretty good Atlanta Falcons defense. Murray just gives them far more big play ability than anyone else they had all season. Conner being back is very helpful as well. C.J. Stroud has been amazing in his rookie season. Stroud has done a remarkable job of hitting a bunch of explosive plays while still not turning the ball over much. He is playing like a top 8 or 10 quarterback already. These are both below average defenses. They aren't very good in the secondary, and I think that will be exploited here. This is on a fast track in the dome which is helpful. Take the over.
11-18-23	NC State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 45.5		35-28	Loss	-110	136 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The NC State Wolfpack have gone full out stall mode on offense of late. In their last three games they are the second slowest paced team in the country. NC State is a run heavy offense that doesn't have much explosiveness at all. NC State is 114th in explosiveness in the country. The VA Tech defense has given up some big plays, but on a down to down basis they have been good. I don't think NC State is the type of team who can break those big gainers. VA Tech's defense is 23rd in the country in havoc. They are 24th in success rate allowed. VA Tech's offense has been much better with Kyron Drones at quarterback. They are running about 60% of the time on offense. NC State's defense has been excellent of late. The Wolfpack are 17th defensive line yards and 22nd in rushing play success rate allowed. VA Tech ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo in the last three games alone. Two running teams with very slow paced offenses. NC State's last four games have finished: 24-3, 24-17, 20-6, and 26-6. Four of their last six games have finished with a total of 32 points or fewer. Take the under here. This line has moved since I selected it early this week. I would still take this as long as it is at or above the key number of 41. Thanks and good luck.
11-18-23	Temple v. UAB OVER 62.5		24-34	Loss	-108	26 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UAB Blazers had a rare very poor showing on offense last week. Navy slowed that game down and UAB didn't play to their potential on offense. UAB overall for the season though is 25th in success rate on offense and the Blazers have scored 35 points or more four times. On the other side, UAB has allowed 41 points or more six times. UAB's tempo is 19th quickest in the country and that often turns their games into shootouts. Temple's offensive stats are skewed because E.J. Warner missed time and the Owls offense could do nothing in his absence. With Warner in the fold, Temple's offense is very good throwing the football. The Owls are 17th in tempo in the country. Temple's defense is 110th in YPP allowed in the country. They are especially terrible against the pass. Jacob Zeno is a good quarterback for UAB and he should have success. Temple has allowed 36 points or more six times this year. I see a back and forth game. Take the over.
11-18-23	Michigan v. Maryland UNDER 50		31-24	Loss	-110	68 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines didn't throw a single pass in the second half against Penn State. Michigan just edged their way down the field and controlled things with the running game. One major reason Michigan running the football so much is important to a total is the Wolverines ranks 132nd (or second slowest) in tempo in the country. They move very methodically. Michigan is 103rd in the country in explosiveness. I have little doubt they'll move the ball well against Maryland, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Maryland is 13th in the country in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays very often. The Michigan defense is 3rd in the country in success rate allowed. They are second in opposing QBR allowed. Michigan is 19th in YPC allowed, but Maryland is only 93rd in the nation in YPC. Michigan has Ohio State next week and the Wolverines would be well suited to get a lead and get out of here with a win playing conservatively. The weather here is a plus too. The blend of four forecasts calls for 16 mph winds with gusts of about 28 mph here. That tends to make teams both more conservative and helps the defenses. Take the under.
11-16-23	Bengals v. Ravens OVER 44		20-34	Win	100	94 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Bengals offense has really improved a lot of late with Joe Burrow getting healthy and the unit coming into its own. The Bengals are averaging 26.6 points per game in their last five games. The early season poor results from the offense means little at this point. On the other side though, the Bengals defense is looking far worse than it did a year ago. Cincinnati is now second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Texans offense torched them on Sunday for 544 yards. This defense has been a problem spot this year for Cincinnati. Baltimore is averaging 32.2 points per game in their last five games. They have scored 31 points or more in four straight contests. The Ravens defense is very good, but Burrow and the Bengals have scored 24, 24, and 27 points on them in the last three head to head meetings. The total earlier this year was 45.5 and it finished 27-24. Since then both offenses have improved quite a bit. Take the over. This line has moved up some since early in the week, but I still rate this 4 star up to 47 and a 3 star play above that. Thanks and good luck
11-11-23	Arizona State v. UCLA UNDER 46		17-7	Win	100	124 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UCLA Bruins saw Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore both get banged up in their loss to Arizona last Saturday. Neither of them practiced on Monday. Ethan Garbers wasn't even at the practice and Moore watched practice without his helmet on. That leaves UCLA thin at QB and would make them more predictable on offense. Trenton Bourguet was injured very early in the Arizona State blowout loss to Utah. Because of other injuries, Arizona State was down to Jacob Conover (4th string QB) and he went 5/22 and was a disaster against Utah last week. Conover might be the man again Saturday. Coach Dillingham said if the game were today Bourguet wouldn't be able to play. The UCLA defense has been fantastic all year. Arizona State's defense has been better than expected. After a poor effort last week, I think the Sun Devils defense will at least play better here. Take the under.
11-11-23	Washington State v. California OVER 59		39-42	Win	100	72 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The pace will help a lot here. Wash State 31st in tempo this year. Cal is 11th. Lots of pace and plenty of possessions here. The Cal defense is very bad. There are 123rd at PFF in defensive grade. They are also 130th in passing play success rate allowed. We know Washington St will throw it a bunch. 60% of their plays are a pass. Cam Ward is hot and cold, but I like his chances of having a good game against this secondary. Cal’s Dline 122nd in havoc rate. Wash State OLine poor in pass blocking, but they won’t get dominated here like they are some games. Cal’s strength on offense is clearly in the running game. Ott is a tremendous runner and they have some depth behind him and a fairly mobile QB. Wash St 100th in rush play success rate allowed. Wash State 11th in Pac 12 in YPC allowed. I think Cal gets the ground game going here. Washington State has had a couple lower scoring games of late which has kept this number down, but I think this sets up as a track meet type game with the offenses having a bunch of success. Take the over.
11-11-23	Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 48		48-10	Win	100	49 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing much different under new offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton than they did under Dan Enos. That's a good thing for the team and for the over. Their offense was terrible and the play calling was bad earlier this year. Arkansas played nearly two seconds per play quicker last week than they did on average the rest of the season. Arkansas also has Rocket Sanders back and Coach Pittman said he's healthier coming into this game than he was going into last weekend. Sanders had his best game of the year last week against Florida. He makes this offense much better when he is at least pretty healthy. Auburn's running game should have some success against a mediocre Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks just allowed 36 points against Florida. Auburn's passing attack has been slightly better of late to give them some balance. I think this number makes sense for the season as a whole, but it is too low based on the changes for Arkansas. Take the over.
11-11-23	Utah v. Washington UNDER 53		28-35	Loss	-110	75 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather is key in this one. Right now the National Weather service says 85% chance of rain during this one. Sustained winds of about 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. If that comes to fruition that absolutely is enough to make a big impact on the game. 6 of Utah’s 9 games have finished with 41 points or fewer total. Whittingham knows they don’t want a shootout against this Huskies team. Washington has played a lot of high scoring games this year, but the weather and an opponent with a weak offense and very strong defense is coming up in this one. Take the under.
11-11-23	UAB v. Navy OVER 52.5		6-31	Loss	-110	24 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UAB Blazers have played eight games against FBS opponents. The lowest combined score has been 58 points. They have hit 70 points or higher in four of their eight games. They have only stayed in the 50's once. UAB's passing attack is very good with Jacob Zeno back in the fold. Zeno was 29/35 for 484 yards and 5 TD's passing last week. Navy has a passing defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in passing play success rate allowed. UAB's defense is atrocious against the run. They are 132nd out of 133 in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 130th in YPC allowed. We know Navy will run the football a lot, and they should have success against this UAB defensive front. UAB will push the pace in a big way. Both defenses are weak. This total has moved down to the point I have to fire on an over. Take the over here.
11-11-23	Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 56		34-31	Loss	-110	134 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Colorado Buffaloes made a offensive coordinator change late last week. I didn't like the move at all. Sean Lewis is a really good offensive coordinator, but the move was made to Shurmur and Lewis was demoted. Shurmur was brought in likely to run the ball more and play at a slower pace. The Colorado offensive line has been so bad that Shedeur Sanders has gotten banged up badly. He clearly isn't himself right now. Colorado played 2.5 seconds per play slower last week than they have for the year overall. The Buffaloes were pass heavy, but they playing from pretty far behind and they were unable to get any offense going at all until very late in the game. Arizona's defense is flying under the radar. The Wildcats defense is much better of late. Arizona is 25th in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to get big plays on them. They can get in the backfield often too with their talented linebackers. The Colorado OLine is going to be in trouble here. Colorado's defense has played somewhat better of late. They have at least slowed down UCLA and Oregon State in the last couple weeks. Arizona's offense is a good one, but they are playing at a pretty slow tempo. Take the under.
11-11-23	Temple v. South Florida OVER 68		23-27	Loss	-110	45 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Temple Owls offensive numbers are skewed. E.J. Warner is everything to this offense and he missed a couple games recently and they were absolutely hapless in those games. Temple is a good offense with Warner on the field though. He came back last week and was great against Navy. Now, Temple goes to take on a weaker defense in USF. USF is 132nd in the nation in explosive plays allowed. The Bulls are 1st in the nation in tempo though. Their games have been absolutely shootouts. They lost 59-50 last week against Memphis. In USF's last six games, five of them have finished at 70 total points or higher. Temple had games finish at 74 and 83 points total before Warner was hurt. Temple is a fast paced team as well. There should be a lot of possessions and I like this one to be a back and forth game. Take the over.
11-05-23	Colts v. Panthers OVER 44		27-13	Loss	-105	38 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indianapolis Colts are an over team. Gardner Minshew is a gunslinger. He can move the team up and down the field, but he can also give the other team a pick six with his questionable decision making at times. The Colts defense is bottom five in the NFL. Indianapolis has been playing quicker of late as well. The Colts last three games have finished 37-20, 39-38, and 38-27. The last two of those were against the Browns and Saints. Both of those teams have suspect offenses and great defenses. If you are able to get very high scoring games against them, I have to look toward the over in your games when they are set this low. Carolina hasn't been a good offense, but I think Bryce Young and company can have some success offensively against a weak secondary and a subpar pass rush in Indianapolis. The Panthers have had 3 of their last 5 games get over 60 points total, so they are capable of being in shootouts. The weather looks good for this one. Take the over.
11-05-23	Commanders v. Patriots OVER 40.5		20-17	Loss	-110	11 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Commanders have had one strength on defense in the last couple years- they had a good pass rush because of a strong defensive line. They traded away that big strength. Chase Young and Montez Sweat both were traded away this week. Washington has been a bottom five defense in the NFL in yards per play even before these trades, and now they are worse. The New England Patriots have been slowed by quite a few injuries on the defensive side of the football this year. They are still a decent defense, but they are far from the dominant defense we've seen in past seasons. Washington's Sam Howell is willing to take chances and I think he can hit on some deep passes against the Patriots secondary. The Patriots offense should look much better without a pass rush on them. This total is set very low for a game involving a very weak defense and no weather issues. Take the over.
11-04-23	Missouri v. Georgia OVER 54.5		21-30	Loss	-110	72 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Georgia offense is better than people realize. Georgia's Carson Beck is playing good football right now. Even without Brock Bowers, Georgia has solid weapons in the passing game. Georgia put up 486 yards and 7.4 yards per play against Florida last week. The Bulldogs are capable of big things on offense. Missouri's offense has been much improved this year. The play caller here is doing a good job taking advantage of Missouri having one of the best WR rooms in the country this year. Brady Cook has been excellent and Burden and company are a tough cover for anyone. Georgia's defense is clearly very good, but what good offense have they faced this year? This is one of the weakest opposing offenses schedules you could find. Missouri will be the best offense they have seen this year. The Missouri defense allowed 21 points to Vandy. They gave up 27 points to Kansas State. LSU put up 8.1 yards per play and 49 points on them. The Tigers defense is worse than they were a year ago. Take the over here.
11-04-23	South Florida v. Memphis OVER 66.5		50-59	Win	100	134 h 30 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Memphis Tigers won 45-42 over North Texas last weekend. Memphis gained 600 yards of total offense, but they allowed 591 total yards. Both teams averaged better than 8 yards per play. Memphis has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. They are solid offensively and are pretty explosive. South Florida has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season as well. What about the defenses? Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. USF is 130th in explosiveness allowed (out of 133 teams). USF is second in the nation in tempo. The Bulls are absolutely flying on offense. Alex Golesh and this group want to turn every game into a track meet. USF has seen four of their last five games finish with 70 combined points or more. USF has allowed 56 points twice in their last three games. Memphis is allowing 5.47 yards per carry in AAC play. USF is 123rd in yards per play allowed on the season. The pace here will be very quick and I like this one to be high scoring. Take the over.
11-04-23	Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 51		30-33	Loss	-110	92 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats are a run heavy offense. They are running the ball on 61% of their offensive plays in Big 12 play. Texas is first in the Big 12 in run defense, and the Longhorns big defensive front should slow down Kansas State much better than the Wildcats recent foes have. Kansas State's secondary was weak early in the season, but they have been amazing of late. In their last two games, Kansas State allowed 3 points against TCU and 0 points against Houston. Texas is without Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Maalik Murphy wasn't asked to do very much last week against BYU. I think Ewers will be missed especially because of his ability to throw the ball deep. Kansas State likely wants to run the ball and play slowly here. Both teams have looked excellent on defense lately. I expect a tight hard fought battle. Take the under.
10-29-23	Rams v. Cowboys OVER 45.5		20-43	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The NFL has had a lot of low scoring games this year. The under has been cashing at a really high rate. That usually tends to regress at least somewhat toward the mean after extremes. This game is being played on the fast track in Dallas. Both of these quarterbacks have shown to be very good when in these conditions. The Rams offense is very good now with two great receivers on the outside. Diggs being out for Dallas definitely hurts them against this kind of passing attack. The Cowboys offense underachieved the last couple games before their bye week. They put a lot of time and focus into turning things around this week. I expect a sharper performance from their offense. Take the over.
10-28-23	Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 63.5		16-28	Win	100	72 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The new clock rules have really made a difference in the higher total games. There is only so much time to score with the clock moving even after first downs. There will certainly still be some very high scoring games, but they have become more rare. Totals of 62 points or higher are 34-20 to the under this season. Colorado has allowed 35 sacks. This Buffaloes offensive line is going to be beaten badly here. PFF rates the UCLA pass rush the e highest of anny in the country. Sanders is going to be under a lot of heat here. Colorado does play quickly but they aren’t always efficient. The Colorado run defense isn't good, but it has been less bad in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.94 YPC in Pac 12 play. Only one of UCLA’s games against FBS competition has finished higher than 45 points. Ethan Garbers is a more conservative quarterback and I think that could lead to less pick sixes and short fields for the opposition which Moore had done all too often. Take the under here.
10-28-23	Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss OVER 62.5		7-33	Loss	-110	24 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has been atrocious this year. They have given up 126 plays of 10 yards or more on the season thus far. In the SEC, they are allowing 6.85 yards per play. Vanderbilt gives up big plays in bunches, and Ole Miss is the definition of a big play offense. Ole Miss has 52 plays of 20 yards or more already this season (3rd best in the country). The Rebels can do it through the air or on the ground. I don't think they'll get to 4th down very often in this game at all. Vanderbilt's offense isn't great, but through the air they have some explosiveness. That is a good fit here since Ole Miss has been weakest in the secondary. Ole Miss is 84th in total QBR allowed. They are 90th in pass play success rate allowed. The two teams are 7th and 14th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. These two met last year and Ole Miss won 52-28. Ole Miss had 9.9 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense is worse this year. Take the over.
10-28-23	Miami-OH v. Ohio UNDER 39		30-16	Loss	-108	21 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ohio Bobcats are nothing like they were last year. Ohio is excellent defensively this year. They are bottom 10 in the country in tempo. The Bobcats are happy to win low scoring games with strong defense this season. 6 of Ohio’s 8 games have finished with a combined total of 37 points or fewer. The Miami OH defense has been tremendous especially in MAC play. They are allowing an average of 11.25 points per games in the MAC. Salopek is a star linebacker that leads the way for them. Miami OH will be without star quarterback Brett Gabbert who had season ending surgery after an injury in the second half of the Toledo game. Aveon Smith is a decent backup, but there is a significant drop off from Gabbert to Smith. Smith is a runner first and he makes the Miami OH offense much more predictable. Gabbert’s big play ability in the passing game is no longer there. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. There shouldn't be many big plays here. It's a very low total, but I think it's low for a good reason. Take the under.
10-27-23	Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte UNDER 42		38-16	Loss	-110	115 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Charlotte 49ers have shown us their game plan pretty clearly at this point. Charlotte wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football and control the time of possession. Charlotte is using 31 seconds between plays in their conference games. The 49ers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in the country. Charlotte is 126th in the nation in rushing play success rate, but they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays in the conference. Charlotte's defense is much improved under Biff Poggi who is a defensive minded coach. The 49ers are 32nd in success rate allowed. They are giving up just 4.52 yards per play in conference action so far. Florida Atlantic has been a big disappointment on offense so far this year. The Owls have been held to 187 points or fewer in four of their seven games. They gained just 2.9 yards per play against a mediocre UTSA defense last week. Charlotte has seen 4 of their 7 games (including 3 of their last 4) this year finish with a combined total of 29 points or fewer. This is the type of game Charlotte wants to play with their lack of big playmakers on offense. Take the under.
10-22-23	Lions v. Ravens UNDER 42		6-38	Loss	-109	121 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Baltimore Ravens defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.0. The Detroit Lions defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at just 4.7. Everyone knew the Ravens would have a solid defense and they do, but the Lions defense has improved so much from the past couple years. Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent this year. The Ravens gained just 5.1 YPP against a mediocre Titans defense last week. The Ravens sit at just 5.2 yards per play on average for the season overall. The Detroit offense hasn't had to face many good defenses yet. They put up just 20 against a pretty good Atlanta defense. They scored only 20 on Tampa Bay last weekend. The weather in this one should be a factor. All of the longer range forecasts are calling for a very windy game here. There are expected to be sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts of around 35 mph. That is enough to really change the game and make things much more conservative. Take the under.
10-22-23	Bills v. Patriots UNDER 41		25-29	Loss	-110	98 h 43 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New England Patriots offense is an absolute mess right now. New England couldn't score a point against New Orleans a couple weeks ago, and the offense was still very weak with only 259 total yards of offense against a mediocre Raiders defense last week. Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Bills struggled badly to score last week against the Giants. The Bills defense has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 10 points or fewer. I consider New England a bottom three offense in the the NFL, but the Pats also have a top five or so defense in the NFL. The weather should be a nice bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of around 18 mph with gusts of 35 mph during this game. That should help cut down on the downfield passing game and make both teams more conservative. Take the under.
10-21-23	Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58		20-17	Loss	-110	138 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were off last weekend. Louisiana has played five FBS opponents this year. The final combined total points scored in those games were: 69, 62, 83. 59, and 64 points. Louisiana is 12th in the nation in yards per play. They are balanced team who can beat you through the air or on the ground. Georgia State is 41st in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Panthers play quickly (39th in the nation in tempo). Georgia State is 11th in the nation in explosive plays on offense. Defensively, Georgia State is 121st in explosiveness allowed. The Panthers allowed 35 points against Rhode Island and 25 points against a really bad Charlotte offense. Even in their win last week, Georgia State gave up 6.7 yards per play against Marshall. Take the over in this one.
10-21-23	Buffalo v. Kent State UNDER 46		24-6	Win	100	121 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Buffalo Bulls defense looked terrible in the non-conference slate. They have played better against MAC competition. Obviously the MAC is a weak conference, but this has been a common trend for Buffalo. The defense ends up being above average in MAC play. Buffalo has given up just 4.83 yards per play in three MAC games. Kent State's offense is averaging a miserable 3.89 yards per play in the MAC. For the season as a whole, Kent State is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in yards per play. Buffalo's offense has very little big play ability. In fact, Buffalo has only five plays of 30 yards or more all season long. Kent State's biggest weakness as a defense has been giving up the big play, but I don't think Buffalo will take advantage of that. Buffalo is 127th in the nation in yards per play on offense. These are two really weak offenses. The weather forecast here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts above 20 mph and showers during the day on Saturday. This is a long range forecast, and the weather is just a bonus. Take the under. This line has been moving down some throughout the week. I would still play this as long as it is 42 points or higher. Thanks and good luck.
10-21-23	Tennessee v. Alabama UNDER 49.5		20-34	Loss	-110	95 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers offense is extremely reliant on being able to run the ball this year. Joe Milton's efficiency has been very poor in games against good opponents. Tennessee scored just 20 points against Texas A&M. They scored only 16 points against Florida. Alabama will easily be the best defense the Volunteers have faced. Alabama ranks #1 in overall defense grade at PFF. Alabama held a very good Ole Miss offense to 10 points at home earlier this year. Alabama is very run heavy this year on offense. Jalen Milroe is inconsistent through the air. Alabama has run the ball on 63% of their plays so far this year. Tennessee's defense is much improved from a couple years ago. The Volunteers are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 7th in defensive line yards. I think they could give the Alabama offensive line a tough time here. This total looks low when you consider what these two teams did last year, but these teams are very different than a year ago. I think the low total is justified. Take the under.
10-19-23	Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 41.5		31-24	Loss	-110	90 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints have a top five defense in the NFL. Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive minded coach. The Saints defense is strong on all levels. There is no clear weakness. New Orleans is also a very questionable offensive team. The Saints play calling on offense leaves a lot to be desired. They play slowly and don't hit many big plays. The Jacksonville Jaguars scored 37 points against the Colts so you would think they were great on offense in that one. They were not even good offensively. It was the Colts turnovers that led to the points. In fact, the Jaguars offense put up just 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. The Jaguars defense now ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in most categories. They held the Colts to 4.8 yards per play. Trevor Lawrence is banged up and is getting tests on his knee. He is likely to be less than 100 percent here (assuming he will play). This is a short week. The Saints have now played 12 straight games that have stayed under this total. Their highest combined total this year is 37 points. Take the under.
10-15-23	Saints v. Texans UNDER 41		13-20	Win	100	155 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints defense has been tremendous all season. New Orleans is also a very cautious offense compared to most in the NFL. They don't take many shots down the field. New Orleans scored 34 points against New England last game, but that is pretty misleading. They averaged just 4.3 YPP. They got a pick six and had multiple short fields due to bad turnovers and the Pats going for it from their own side. Houston was beaten right as the clock hit zero by Atlanta 21-19 last game. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic this year. I still think he will find it tougher going in this one than in most games because this Saints secondary is the real deal. The Texans defense is scrappy and they are limiting big plays. Both teams are coached by defensive minded head coaches. The Saints have played a stunning 11 straight games that have finished at a combined 40 points or lower. This year, they have had all 5 of their games finish at 37 points or lower. I like this one to stay a defensive battle. Take the under.
10-14-23	UAB v. UTSA OVER 64.5		20-41	Loss	-110	125 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners got their star quarterback Frank Harris back last Saturday. Harris had been badly banged up earlier this year and tried to play through it. He then had to sit out for a period of time. UTSA's offense finally looked like what we expected last weekend. UTSA put up 49 points and 7.3 yards per play in their win over Temple last weekend. UTSA's defense has disappointed this year. The secondary in particular lost a lot of talent from a year ago, and the drop off has been significant. Temple put up 542 yards in that 49-34 loss to UTSA last weekend. UAB has been throwing the ball a lot. Zeno is a quality quarterback for the Blazers. UAB ranks 19th in success rate on offense. They are throwing the ball on 53.6% of their offensive plays. UAB hasn't had a game against an FBS opponent finish with less than 58 points total this year. Two of their four against FBS opponents finished with 81 and 84 points. The UAB defense is extremely weak. They are 130th in success rate allowed. They have allowed 35 points or more in every game against an FBS opponent this season. A fast track here for two offenses ranking in the top 20 in tempo. Take the over.
10-14-23	UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 55.5		24-36	Loss	-110	80 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Oregon State is 105th in the nation in tempo. 56.5% of their plays on offense are a run. I think they want to establish the run in this one. Oregon State is a good run defense (3.21 ypc) on the year. Oregon State should at least hold its own against the run of UCLA. UCLA’s Dante Moore is capable of big things, but Chip Kelly doesn’t look like he fully trusts him yet.. He also has an OLine that isn’t pass protecting well. 110th in pass blocking grade. I knew the UCLA defensive front was good, but I didn’t expect them to shut down a great passing attack like Washington State last week. Washington State had a 19%!!! Success rate on passing downs last week. UCLA is 1st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have a 93.2 PFF overall defense grade. 2nd best in the country. UCLA 6th in explosiveness allowed. An excellent defense so far this year. UCLA hasn’t played a game against an FBS opponent this year that finished with more than 45 total points. I’m on the under.
10-14-23	Wyoming v. Air Force UNDER 45		27-34	Loss	-110	139 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Air Force Falcons are 133rd in tempo out of 133 teams in the country. They are running the football on 94% of their offensive plays. With the new clock rules, the Air Force games are really going to move quickly. There aren't many possessions in their games. The Falcons have only faced one good run defense (Sam Houston) and that game was 13-3. Wyoming has played against some pretty good offenses this year, and I tend to think the Wyoming defense is a little better than their year to date stats look. Craig Bohl's teams have a history of being very good at defending the triple option as well. Andrew Peasley isn't a good quarterback. He just had a fantastic game against Fresno State, but I don't expect to see a repeat of that. Air Force is 4th in yards per play allowed this year. The Falcons are a veteran defense that does not give up big plays. The last three meetings between these two teams were 20-6, 24-14, and 17-14. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be a higher scoring game. Take the under.
10-14-23	Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 45.5		24-14	Win	100	76 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather forecast in this one calls for rain throughout the day on Saturday and sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That is significant enough to change the way the game is played. Buffalo prefers to throw the football, but they are unlikely to be able to throw it downfield much in this weather. Buffalo is averaging just 3.51 ypc (111th in the country). Bowling Green should be able to cheat up in the box to stop the run more here. Bowling Green on offense is 118th in success rate so far this year. The Falcons are 99th in success rate in the running game. Buffalo's run defense is 51st in success rate allowed on the ground. PFF grades Buffalo as the 31st ranked run defense in the country. With the weather and game plans being changed by it, I'll take the under.
10-14-23	Troy v. Army UNDER 43.5		19-0	Win	100	73 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under These two teams met last year and the final was Troy 10 Army 9. While I don't expect a game that low again, I do think this total is too high. Army is 131st in pace of play this year. They run the ball on 75% of their plays on offense. Army is going up a Troy defense that is ranked #7 in the country in run defense by PFF. Troy is 12th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. I think Army will find it hard to move the football here. Troy's offensive line is their biggest weakness. They get too many big negative plays and get behind the sticks. The weather is an extra help here too. The forecast calls for half an inch or more of rain during the day at West Point. Winds of 10-12 mph are expected as well. There should be even less of a downfield passing attack from these two teams based on the weather. Expect a lot of running and the clock to keep ticking here. Take the under.
10-14-23	Texas A&M v. Tennessee UNDER 55.5		13-20	Win	100	26 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers offense hasn't been nearly as explosive or consistently good this year. Hendon Hooker was a perfect fit for the offense, and to this point Joe Milton really hasn't been. Milton can make a highlight play once in a while, but his passing efficiency numbers are very poor. He hasn't been able to stretch the field, and now without Bru McCoy the wide receivers aren't nearly as good. Tennessee will want to run the football here, but Texas A&M is 6th in YPC allowed. Tennessee and Texas A&M have both been excellent at getting into the backfield and creating big negative plays with their front seven. I think it will be tough for the offenses to stay ahead of schedule here. The Volunteers defense is much better than it was a couple years ago. Tennessee ranks 10th in the nation in success rate allowed. The weather should be a bit of a boost here for the under too. A chance of showers (not much rain) and winds of 17 mph with gusts to 28 mph is the average of four forecasts here. Those kinds of winds are the key. It should help keep the play calling a bit more conservative. Take the under.
10-14-23	Navy v. Charlotte UNDER 45		14-0	Win	100	24 h 18 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Charlotte’s biggest strength as a team is their defensive line. Biff Poggi is a unique guy and he knows defense. I think Charlotte is better suited to slow down the unique option that Navy is running than most teams. I know Navy isn’t just a triple option team now, but let’s be honest they are definitely still an option team.. They have run the ball on 79% of their offensive plays this year. Navy is 123rd out of 133 teams in tempo. With all those running plays and the new clock rules, the clock will keep moving a lot when they have the ball. Even if they score it should take a lot of time off the clock. Charlotte is running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays. I think they want it to be even higher than that, but they have been down big in some games and had to start throwing it more. Charlotte 115th in tempo. Conservative play calling from both teams and I don’t see many big plays from either side. A game that likely gets completed in 3 hours or less. I’ll take the under expecting a 21-17 type game.
10-14-23	Kent State v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 45.5		14-28	Win	100	132 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in offensive explosiveness. Kent State's defense isn't good, but they have been burned by big plays quite a bit. Eastern Michigan hasn't proven capable of getting big gainers consistently even against weaker defenses. Eastern Michigan is 125th in tempo, and the Eagles run the ball a lot. They use up a bunch of time on their drives. Austin Smith isn't a good passer and the opposing defenses have started to figure out that Eastern Michigan is a weak downfield passing team. Kent State's offense is awful. The Golden Flashes are 132nd in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is running the ball on nearly 65% of their plays, but they are 131st in rushing play success rate. Eastern Michigan is 15th in explosiveness allowed. The Eagles aren't likely to give up big plays here. The long range weather forecast calls for showers and sustained winds during this game. I'm going to go ahead and bet the under as I expect a move down during the week. Take the under.
10-08-23	Saints v. Patriots UNDER 40		34-0	Win	100	84 h 28 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints defense is solid in all areas. They are coached by a defensive minded coach, and they do a good job of minimizing big plays allowed. On the other side, New Orleans has a weak offense. The Saints are averaging just 4.4 yards per play (29th in the NFL). If you took under 40 (a very low total in today's NFL) in the last 10 games involving the New Orleans, you would be a perfect 10-0. The Saints have yet to have a game finish with a combined score higher than 37 this year. They have scored 17 points or fewer in three of their four contests. The New England Patriots are clearly a bottom eight offense in the NFL. They don't have the game breakers to threaten strong defenses. New England is still a well coached defense, and I would expect the Pats to be far more ready to play after being embarrassed last weekend by Dallas. The weather here is a factor too. Sustained winds of about 17 mph with gusts to 27 mph during this game are a help for the defenses. Take the under.
10-07-23	Oregon State v. California UNDER 52		52-40	Loss	-110	76 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers rank 4th in yards per carry allowed on the season. Cal's offense is heavily reliant on the running game. Jadyn Ott is a good running back, but the Cal offensive line is 120th at PFF in run blocking grade. I think Cal will find it difficult to get things going on the ground in this one. Oregon State is 90th in tempo, and the Beavers want to run the football. Cal is 35th in YPC allowed. Oregon State's passing attack has not been explosive. Musgrave was a big loss for the Oregon State offense. The main guys Oregon State can lean on is Fenwick and Martinez at running back. DJU has been pretty good at QB, but the offense appears designed to play it relatively safe with him in the passing game. Oregon State's battle with SD State finished with 35 points total. Oregon State and Utah finished with 28 points total. Cal played a 14-10 game against Auburn. They also just finished with only 4.2 yards per play in a 24-21 win over Arizona State. Take the under here.
10-07-23	San Jose State v. Boise State OVER 57		27-35	Win	100	32 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boise State Broncos are going to give both Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen playing time at quarterback in this one. Boise State has put up 42, 34, and 32 points in their last three games. The Broncos have a star running back in Jeanty, and both of the quarterbacks are playing well. Boise State ranks 14th in the nation in rushing play success rate. San Jose State's defense ranks 121st in rushing play success rate allowed. San Jose State has a pretty good offense led by Cordeiro at quarterback. The Spartans should have the ability to throw it fairly well against a Boise State secondary that is way down from a year ago. The Spartans put up 6.8 YPP against a solid Air Force defense in their last game. Boise State ranks 129th in the nation in YPP allowed on the season. The total has come down a bit here, and I will side with the over. The weather here looks perfect for this contest. Take the over.
10-07-23	Notre Dame v. Louisville UNDER 54.5		20-33	Win	100	68 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Louisville Cardinals offense has been feast or famine so far this year. Louisville is all about breaking explosive plays. Louisville has broken 22 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They are 20th in explosiveness on offense this year. Their defenses faced are: GA Tech, Murray State, Indiana, Boston College, NC State. Of those five defenses, not a single one of them is ranked in the top 65 in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame is 10th in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame's defense is designed to not give up big plays. The Fighting Irish have allowed only 52 plays of 10 yards ore more in five games. The Notre Dame secondary is the best Louisville has played, and the the Fighting Irish run defense is very strong. Louisville's Jack Plummer has looked bad when under pressure and I think he'll get heat in this one. Louisville's defense is 20th in success rate allowed this season. The Notre Dame offense is at their best when running the football and taking time off the clock. Notre Dame's wide receivers are the weakness of the team and they are shorthanded right now too. Notre Dame has been in two low scoring contests in the last two weeks. This one should be higher than those two, but I like to stay lower than this posted total. Take the under here.
10-07-23	Old Dominion v. Southern Miss OVER 55		17-13	Loss	-110	115 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Old Dominion Monarchs offense is a completely new system this year under new OC Kevin Decker. Decker's teams at Fordham set all kinds of records for scoring. His innovative sets were constantly applauded by other FCS teams. Decker is doing a nice job with Old Dominion's offense too. Old Dominion is flying up and down the field with their new uptempo system. Old Dominion is 11th in tempo in the country (out of 133). Old Dominion just put up 41 points and 8.0 yards per play on a good Marshall defense last week. They have only had one low scoring game this year and that was their game against FCS Texas A&M Commerce. That game was played in very poor weather conditions. Southern Miss previously had a very good defense, but the Golden Eagles defense is a clear weakness now. They are 130th out of 133 in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.99. They have managed to give up 17 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Old Dominion is going to get some explosive plays here. Southern Miss is better on offense than they have been in recent years. Old Dominion has played a weak schedule of opposing offenses, and I believe the Monarchs defense is still fairly weak. This one has dropped to a key number here and I'll side with the over. Take the over. This line has moved up some during the week. I would play this up to 59, but not higher than that. Thanks and good luck
10-07-23	South Florida v. UAB OVER 65.5		35-56	Win	100	136 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The USF Bulls brought in Alex Golesh in the offseason as their new head coach. In the offseason he said an extremely high priority for the team was pushing the pace to the extreme this year. USF ranks 5th in the nation in tempo so far this year. The USF offense wasn't firing on all cylinders right away, but there are great signs the last couple weeks. USF put up 42 points and 8.5 yards per play two weeks ago on Rice. This past weekend they put up 435 yards and 44 points on Navy. They now go against a UAB defense that grades out as worse than Rice or Navy on defense. UAB is playing very fast under Trent Dilfer too. UAB ranks 13th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have played two really good defenses the last two weeks in Georgia and Tulane. They put up a solid 21 on Georgia and 23 on Tulane. UAB is throwing the ball on 57% of pass plays, and the USF secondary is a clear weakness. The pace will be there and I think both teams will put up a big number. Take the over. This line has moved up some since earlier in the week. I would play this for a 4 star rating up to 69 points and for 3 stars at anything higher than that. Thanks and good luck.
10-07-23	Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 47		17-42	Loss	-110	134 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Ohio Bobcats defense has really impressed me this season. Ohio is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. In their last three games against Florida Atlantic, Iowa State, and Bowling Green they have allowed a total of 24 points. Against FAU, the defense gave up no touchdowns. The FAU touchdown was a pick six. Holding a Big 12 team to 7 points is excellent. Bowling Green just went to GA Tech and won too. Kent State's offense is 132nd in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Flashes have very little chance of having any true success on offense in this game. Ohio's defense is too good. The question is- how many points will Ohio score? Ohio's offense is just 121st in yards per play so far this year. I do think they'll have success against Kent State's weak defense in general. However, Ohio has shown a strong tendency to slow the pace and not run up the score when they have a big lead. Ohio has won two games by 17 or more. They haven't scored a single point in the fourth quarter of either of those games. Ohio is 122nd in the nation in tempo. In the Bowling Green game where they had a big lead, they played one of the slowest tempos of any team in a game this season. Kent State likely struggles to get to 10. Ohio has bigger fish to fry and I'm not convinced they'll try to run up the score. The long range forecast shows some winds in the 15 or 20 mph range here too. Take the under. This one has moved down a bit during the week with the news of the weather being windy. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45, and for 3 stars lower than that. Thanks and good luck.
10-07-23	North Texas v. Navy OVER 59		24-27	Loss	-110	134 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green have played four games so far this year. The total scores in those four games finished at: 79 points, 75 points, 77 points, and 76 points. North Texas is 16th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green will push the pace all through the season. North Texas is 17th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. North Texas is averaging a nice 6.41 yards per play on offense. They are up against a Navy defense that ranks 118th in the nation in success rate allowed. The North Texas defense is arguably the worst in the nation. North Texas allowed 46 points against a brutal FIU offense. They are 127th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.75. Navy's offense is 44th in the nation in yards per carry. North Texas is dead last in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 5.88 ypc allowed. The Mean Green are likely to get burned by the option quite a few times here. Navy's Horvath has shown the capability to throw a few decent deep passes the last couple games too. With the two weak defenses, I have to go over this number. Take the over.
10-05-23	Bears v. Commanders OVER 44		40-20	Win	100	29 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Chicago Bears defense is awful. They aren't good even when they have a healthy secondary, and now they have a banged up secondary and have the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bears are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Chicago has looked better on offense the last couple weeks. The Bears are a middle of the road offense and the worst or second worst defense in the NFL. I see Chicago as an over team right now. Washington has topped 30 points in two of their four games. The Commanders do have enough skill position talent to break some big gainers, especially against a very weak Chicago defense. Chicago's games have finished with 51, 44, 51, and 59 points. I think this total is a little too low. Take the over.
10-01-23	Bengals v. Titans UNDER 41		3-27	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Bengals and Titans have played twice in the last couple seasons. The final scores of those two games were 19-16 (in overtime) and 20-16. This total is set low for a reason. Joe Burrow is a great quarterback when healthy. He is clearly not healthy right now. He's a battler and he'll do his best to help his team win, but it is tough for him to throw the ball down the field right now. The Bengals offense has a much harder time breaking big gainers in its current state. Cincinnati's offensive line isn't very good still, and the Titans have been shutting down the run game all year. Joe Mixon isn't likely to be very efficient here. The Bengals defensive line dominated the Rams offensive line on Monday night. The Titans offensive line is a major weakness. I think Cincinnati will get in the backfield early and often here. Tennessee wants to turn every game into a low scoring rock right. The Bengals are far more prone to that kind of game with Burrow playing severely hampered. Both teams have played at a slower than average pace this year as well. Take the under.
09-30-23	Texas State v. Southern Miss OVER 59		50-36	Win	100	28 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Texas State Bobcats are a team I circled in the preseason that I wanted to bet a lot of overs on. GJ Kinne has completely changed the way this team plays. They brought in multiple good QB transfers. Texas State is 15th in tempo in the country. They will continually play as fast as possible. The Bobcats are very explosive on offense too. They already have 31 plays of 20 yards or more which is sixth most in the country. The Southern Miss defense was good in the past, but they are no longer good. Southern Miss lost star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to Florida, and they definitely miss him. The Golden Eagles just gave up 44 points to lowly Arkansas State. Southern Miss is 131st out of 133 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think they'll give up big gainers here. The Southern Miss offense is 42nd in explosiveness and Texas State's defense is 116th in explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss does have 7 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Their passing game is a bit better than it has been. This number has been knocked down to a point where I have to bet this one to go over the total. Take the over.
09-30-23	Miami-OH v. Kent State OVER 47.5		23-3	Loss	-109	86 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Redhawks have a really good quarterback in Brett Gabbert. Gabbert is being very aggressive with throwing the ball downfield this year. Gabbert has one of the highest average of depth of targets in the country at 13.2 yards per pass attempt. Gabbert is a good decision maker and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly. Rashad Amos has been a pretty good running back for the Redhawks this year as well. This team has been able to have more balance so far this year. Miami is 9th in explosiveness on offense, and I think they'll bust several big gainers in this game. Kent State is a really bad team. The Golden Flashes defense has already allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. The Kent State offense has looked a little better in recent weeks. They are up against a Miami defense that isn't as good as they have been in recent years. The Redhawks are 108th in YPP allowed. I don't think Kent State will score a lot here, but I think they can score enough. Miami's offense should have their way and this total has dropped to a number far below average in college football. Take the over.
09-30-23	Virginia v. Boston College OVER 54.5		24-27	Loss	-110	109 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College Eagles offense is definitely better than I expected with Thomas Castellanos doing a good job making some big plays from the quarterback position. Castellanos can sometimes come up with some miracle plays that are big hitters. Boston College has 16 plays of 20 yards or more in two games in the ACC (FSU and Louisville). The Boston College defense is worse than anyone could have expected. They are 127th in yards per play allowed this year. They are 132nd in opposing QBR allowed. They have already allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. This secondary is really bad. Virginia's Anthony Colandrea is quite the experience. He's a youngster who can make some things happen and takes chances. He also is more than capable of throwing a pick six at any point because he tries to throw into spots that just aren't there. The Cavs are 20th in explosiveness on offense, and it is primarily thanks to him going downfield as often as possible. The Virginia defense is far worse than a year ago. The Cavs are 128th in success rate allowed on defense. Boston College is 13th in tempo on the season. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over.
09-30-23	Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 45.5		14-33	Loss	-110	32 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Florida Gators travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. This has the makings of a game with very few possessions because of the pace both teams play at this season. Florida is 128th in tempo and Kentucky is 115th in tempo. Both teams are taking more than 30 seconds between snaps. With the new rules in college football this year, teams like these two are going to be able to eat up quite a bit of clock in each drive. Austin Armstrong is a fantastic defensive coordinator. The Florida Gators defense is much improved this year. Florida is second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are creating pressure on the quarterback and Devin Leary isn't particularly mobile. Kentucky's defense has been solid for several years in a row. The Wildcats offense looks better on paper than it is because they really haven't been tested by a single good defense yet. Last year when these two teams met the two offenses struggled badly. They put up 4.4 and 4.3 yards per play in that game. Florida is definitely better on defense this year, and the Gators are playing slower on offense. A hard fought low scoring game. Take the under.
09-30-23	UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota OVER 48.5		24-35	Win	100	21 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't the same team they were a year ago. Minnesota had a top 10 defense in the country last year. Minnesota has only played one good offense so far this year (N Carolina) and yet they are 86th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Minnesota is 128th in third down defense. The Golden Gophers defensive front is far weaker than it has been in recent years. Louisiana has a good offensive line and a mobile quarterback who can make some big plays. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 6.26 ypc on the season. They have scored 31 points or more in each of their games so far this season. The Louisiana defense has allowed 38 points to Buffalo and 38 points to Old Dominion. I think Minnesota's games are being totaled too low right now based on their past history. This Minnesota team has a new OC who is playing somewhat faster and the Golden Gophers defense is far weaker. Take the over.
09-24-23	Bears v. Chiefs UNDER 48		10-41	Loss	-110	14 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much improved. Many still think of KC as a team that has to win shootouts, but that is no longer true. The Chiefs are 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. They have faced a good Detroit offense and that was without star Chris Jones. They then took on a talented Jacksonville offense and did a great job holding them to 271 yards and 9 points. The Chicago Bears are 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Justin Fields hasn't looked good at all, and the KC defensive line is likely to be far too much for this Bears offensive line. The Kansas City offense isn't quite clicking on all cylinders yet and they do still have some injuries. There is a very strong system that backs the under here. Andy Reid at home as a big favorite has been a great under bet. Why? Reid is well known for when his team gets the lead by margin he takes his foot off the gas and doesn't use his best plays. Reid's teams at home favored by 7.5 points or more- the under is a whopping 39-16-3 since 2004. The average margin of is nearly 6 points to the under. In this situation when it is a non-divisional game the under is 28-9 in the last 37. Take the under here.
09-24-23	Broncos v. Dolphins OVER 48		20-70	Win	100	44 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins have been the best offense in the NFL so far, and it hasn't been close. Miami is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play on the season. They put up 6.4 YPP on a strong New England defense. The Denver defense has regressed in a big way this year. Denver also will be without safety Justin Simmons who is a key loss against Tua and this Miami passing attack. Jaylen Waddle is questionable here. He did practice on Friday which is a good sign. It's a big bonus if he can play in this one. The Denver offense has been tremendous early in games with their scripted drives. Payton is clearly a big help to Russell Wilson and this offense in general. Denver has more big play ability, and they have picked up their tempo. I don't think the books have adjusted Denver enough based on their improvement on offense and decline on defense. Take the over.
09-24-23	Falcons v. Lions OVER 46		6-20	Loss	-105	34 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Detroit Lions have been a tremendous over team on their home turf of late. Jared Goff is a quarterback who is hurt by poor weather conditions more than most in the NFL. Goff has no concerns to worry about on the fast track at Ford Field. Goff also has a really nice cast around him now in Detroit. St. Brown is expected to play in this one and he is an elite WR. I like Gibbs getting most of the carries in the backfield here, because I view him as the more dynamic running back for the Lions. Laporta is fitting in nicely at tight end too. The Atlanta Falcons have a superstar in the backfield now in Bijan Robinson. He is a game breaker and I expect him to have a big game against a Lions defense that is below average against the run. The Falcons have enough play makers on offense now to be a problem. Ridder is slowly getting better at QB. A low total considering the Lions on the fast track. Neither defense is elite and I'll side with the over. Take the over here.
09-23-23	Akron v. Indiana UNDER 46		27-29	Loss	-110	126 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Indiana Hoosiers have wisely chosen to play a completely different way this season. Indiana is no longer playing as fast as possible. They are trying to run the football and play at a slower tempo. Tom Allen knows his team needs lower scoring games. Indiana ranks 109th out of 133 teams in the country in pace of play this season. Akron is 119th in tempo so far this year. They have been behind in every game too, so they have been unwilling to pick up the tempo even when they are playing from behind. Irons has been very bad at quarterback for Akron, and Undercuffler has been getting most of the snaps. He isn't good either. Akron has absolutely no ground game. They are averaging 1.63 yards per carry on the season. The Zips defense has been better than expected. Akron is allowing only 3.09 ypc on the season thus far. These two teams are 101st and 126th in explosiveness on offense. With a slow pace and the lack of explosive plays, I think this will be a lower scoring game. Take the under.
09-23-23	Duke v. Connecticut UNDER 45.5		41-7	Loss	-114	69 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UConn Huskies were excited about Joe Fagnano starting as their quarterback for this season. He didn't get to play for long before he was injured. Fagnano is now out for the season. Roberson is back as the Huskies signal caller, and we have a lot of history on him. Roberson isn't very good and the team doesn't take many deep shots with him under center. UConn becomes very one dimensional on offense. The Huskies offense has been really weak this year. They are 124th in offensive success rate. Duke's defense ranks 4th in explosiveness allowed. The Blue Devils are built to not allow big plays. It is hard to imagine UConn putting together long scoring drives against anyone, and Duke is better defensively than most of UConn's opponents. The UConn Huskies defense is 23rd in explosiveness allowed. Duke is good on offense, but they are run heavy and do play at a slow pace. The weather here should be an issue. The average of four forecasts now calls for winds of about 15-18 mph and 1.5 to 2 inches of rain during the day. This should make both teams even more conservative on offense. Take the under.
09-23-23	Miami-FL v. Temple UNDER 49.5		41-7	Win	100	68 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The primary reason for this selection is the weather. Through the years college football games that are windy and rainy have been great to under bettors. Of course there can be a wide range of results, but on the whole it is a clear net positive for lower scoring games. Wind is the most important, but adding in rain to the wind makes it that much harder for the offenses. The average of four forecasts here calls for winds of about 21 or 22 mph. There should be sustained rain throughout this game as well. There are gusts of 30 or 35 in the forecast too. In this game, we have a Miami team that ranks 127th in the nation in pace. The Hurricanes have shown they are more than willing to slow the game down and let the clock run with the new rules implemented this year in college football. Temple is a very poor rushing team. If they can't have Warner throwing it around this offense just isn't very good at all. Both of these defenses have been pretty good this season. They should have an advantage in these conditions. Take the under.
09-23-23	Boston College v. Louisville OVER 54		28-56	Win	100	50 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College defense has been awful this year. The Eagles allowed 7.3 YPP against Holy Cross a couple weeks ago. Last week Florida State put up 31 points on them with Jordan Travis banged up. It was also very windy in last week's contest. Boston College is playing very quickly. They rank 25th in the nation in tempo. The Eagles seem to have found a pretty good quarterback option in Castellanos. He has big play ability but can also turn it over. The Eagles putting up 29 points in the wind against FSU last week was a big step forward for the offense. Louisville's offense should be good with Jeff Brohm leading the way and Plummer at quarterback. The Cardinals are 10th in the nation at 7.44 YPP on offense thus far. Louisville wants to play quickly too. Louisville has quick strike ability in the passing game, and the BC secondary is a major weakness. The weather report for this one looks good. Take the over.
09-22-23	Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 53		38-17	Win	100	67 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Purdue Boilermakers defense has disappointed so far this year. Their secondary isn't very good, and Purdue has been torched by the big play. The Boilermakers have allowed 22 plays of 20 yards or more. They have played Fresno State, Va Tech (terrible offensively), and Syracuse. Wisconsin has the most offensive talent of the teams Purdue has faced this year. The Badgers offense hasn't been great this year, but I expect improvement under Longo. Mordecai is an above average quarterback. With two star running backs who are also good pass catchers, Wisconsin has too many weapons for this Purdue defense. The Wisconsin defense is way down from a year ago. Wisconsin is 88th in success rate allowed so far this year. The Badgers secondary is down the most. Hudson Card and OC Graham Harrell should be able to move the ball and score on this Badgers defense. Wisconsin gave up 455 yards to GA Southern last week. If Davis Brin hadn't thrown all kinds of red zone interceptions, GA Southern would have scored a bunch of points in that one. These two are 40th and 42nd in tempo in the country. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over.
09-16-23	Akron v. Kentucky UNDER 50		3-35	Win	100	41 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Akron Zips offense is in really bad shape. DJ Irons has played terribly and the team has no rushing attack. Akron just ran for a grand total of 4 yards against Morgan State last weekend! Akron needed a fluke defensive touchdown in the final seconds to win 24-21 over Morgan State last week. The Zips have had 279 and 270 yards of offense against Temple and Morgan State. Now, they go against a good SEC defense. I don't know if Akron can top 10 points here. Kentucky's offense hasn't been nearly as good as expected so far this year. Devin Leary has struggled and the offense has lacked explosive plays. The Wildcats only put up 28 points against Eastern Kentucky last weekend. These two teams both play very slowly. Two bottom 25 tempo teams with the new clock rules and Kentucky should have a large lead they are looking to sit on late in the game here. I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under.
09-16-23	UL-Lafayette v. UAB OVER 57.5		41-21	Win	100	124 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UAB Blazers are a completely different team this year under Trent Dilfer. He has sped the team up drastically, and they are airing it out a lot on early downs. Overall, UAB has passed on 59% of their offensive plays, which is the 10th highest rate in the nation. UAB's offensive line isn't very good, but the Louisiana pass rush is weak. The Ragin' Cajuns secondary has allowed too many big plays as well. I think Jacob Zeno and company could hit several big plays on them throughout this game. Louisiana put up 38 on Northwestern State and 31 points on Old Dominion. The Ragin' Cajuns have veteran quarterbacks and a solid offensive line. Louisiana would have even more points this year were it not for poor red zone offense. They have two turnovers inside the 20 yard line already and have TD's on just 3 of 7 trips into the red zone. That should regress positively over time. The UAB defense was once a big strength, but they just allowed 49 points to GA Southern last week. This total is a few points lower than I made. Both of these teams are quite a bit different from last year and the oddsmakers often have a hard time adjusting on these teams. Take the over.
09-16-23	Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 50.5		21-3	Win	100	100 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tulane Green Wave were not the same offense without Michael Pratt last week. Pratt has a knee injury and missed their 37-20 loss against Ole Miss. Pratt is still listed as questionable for this coming weekend, but there are signs he would either miss this coming weekend or be playing at far less than 100%. Pratt is key to the team without Tyjae Spears at running back like they had last year. Tulane only averaged 4.2 YPP against Ole Miss last weekend. Southern Miss was crushed by Florida State, but the Seminoles offense is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Southern Miss is an above average defense. The Golden Eagles offensively are extremely reliant on Frank Gore Jr. in the running game. They simply cannot throw it well enough to keep defenses honest. Tulane's defense is led by new DC Shiel Wood who is a defensive mastermind. The front seven on defense has been stuffing the run extremely well for Tulane. I think they'll make Southern Miss throw it on them, and the Golden Eagles likely can't do that. Take the under here.
09-16-23	Wake Forest v. Old Dominion OVER 59.5		27-24	Loss	-110	132 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Old Dominion Monarchs got a new offensive coordinator in the offseason. The former Fordham OC had record setting offenses that played lightning fast in FCS. Old Dominion is already moving very quickly so far this season. The Monarchs are 20th in tempo out of 133 teams. Old Dominion is also getting pretty good quarterback play from Wilson, the QB who was formerly at Fordham and is playing in the same offensive system now. The Monarchs put up 38 points against Louisiana last weekend. Old Dominion's defense is still very weak. They allowed 31 points against Louisiana, and they allowed 36 against a weak Virginia Tech Hokies offense too. Wake Forest always prefers to play fast on offense. They have scored 37 and 36 points in their first two games. The Demon Deacons have too much talent at the wide receiver spot for the ODU secondary to handle. The Demon Deacons defense gave up 6.7 yards per play against Vanderbilt. Two fast paced teams and I believe this one gets past the total. Take the over.
09-10-23	Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 45		25-20	Push	0	61 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia Eagles travel to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday. Philadelphia is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl. New England's defense was still excellent last year, but their offense wasn't good. I don't see much to make me think the Patriots offense has gotten much better this year either. New England still doesn't have a good quarterback, and they are still short on weapons on the outside as well. Philadelphia is loaded defensively, and the Eagles defensive line is going to cause major problems for the Patriots in this one. Bill Belichick is a defensive minded coach, and his defenses have been very ready for the start of the season the last few years. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 season openers. The average margin of those unders is a whopping 11 points. I think they'll have a good game plan for this one too. There is a little rain in the forecast here with a slight wind too. Take the under.
09-09-23	Auburn v. California OVER 54		14-10	Loss	-110	71 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Auburn Tigers offense is clearly going to be better this year. Peyton Thorne is at least a decent quarterback (not great) and Hugh Freeze is a terrific offensive mind. Auburn has very good running back depth, and the talent in the backfield is excellent. Cal's offense looks completely different this year. Jake Spavital is the new OC and he has this team running at a very fast tempo. Cal was top 35 in the country in tempo in week one and that is even with them winning 58-21 and slowing things down late in the game. This is a new look offense that will take some shots downfield, but they will also run the ball very well. Cal's Jaydn Ott is a star running back. Auburn allowed more than 5 yards per carry in the SEC last year. They allowed 5.15 ypc last week against UMass in their win. Ott is coming off a game where he averaged 9.4 ypc. He should break some big ones here. The Cal defense is much weaker on the defensive line than they have been in past years. They generate very little pass rush. They aren't very good at stuffing things in the middle. Auburn's run game should have success here. Auburn will want to play relatively quickly with Freeze. Cal is going to play fast. The number here has gotten too low. This isn't the same Cal team from the last few years. Take the over.
09-09-23	Texas v. Alabama UNDER 56.5		34-24	Loss	-110	124 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Alabama Crimson Tide should play quite a bit differently this year than they did a year ago. They no longer have star quarterback Bryce Young who is now an NFL starter. The Crimson Tide should run the football a lot more than they did in the past. I also expect them to play at a slower pace. A team that runs the ball a lot and plays at a slow pace is a team that could have quite a few less possessions under the new rule with the clock running after first downs other than the last two minutes of the half. I think Alabama is one of those teams. The Crimson Tide defense is excellent. In fact, I think the Alabama defense will be quite a bit better than a year ago. Texas is a really good team overall. I see very few weaknesses on the Longhorns team. I do think they will load up the box and do a solid job limiting explosive runs by Alabama here. Quinn Ewers has still been inaccurate on deeper throws, and the Alabama secondary is a strong unit led by McKinstry. I expect both defenses to be well prepared for this huge game in Tuscaloosa. I'll take the under here.
09-09-23	Middle Tennessee State v. Missouri UNDER 51.5		19-23	Win	100	124 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The MTSU Blue Raiders lost a ton on offense from last year. The Blue Raiders have a new quarterback who isn't very good, and an offensive line that will struggle against quality defensive fronts all season. MTSU was able to gain only 3.5 yards per play against Alabama. I'm not suggesting Missouri has a defense as good as Alabama, but the Tigers are very solid defensively. Missouri has some very good run stuffing defensive tackles. The Tigers should be able to do a great job against the MTSU run game. Missouri's offense isn't a big play offense, and they don't play at a very quick tempo. Missouri had only 3 plays of 20 yards or more against FCS team South Dakota in week one. The MTSU defense is good led by a strong defensive line. MTSU played at an extremely slow tempo against Alabama even though they were down big the entire game. I expect the Blue Raiders to keep that tempo slow in this one. Missouri put up 28 points in the first half against S Dakota, but only scored 7 in the second. The Tigers have been a team that has let up when up big in the second half in the past. Take the under here.
09-09-23	Marshall v. East Carolina UNDER 46		31-13	Win	100	98 h 35 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd defense has been excellent the last few seasons, and I expect it to continue to be that way with Huff as their head coach. Marshall has a really good defensive line that is especially good at stuffing the run. East Carolina is without Holton Ahlers who started at QB for four years for the Pirates, and there is a significant drop off to anyone they put under center this season. I expect East Carolina to play it safe with their offensive game plan. The single biggest strength of the entire East Carolina team is their run defense. Marshall wants to run the ball with Rasheen Ali, but I expect East Carolina to make it more difficult for them than most teams will be able to. Marshall's Cam Fancher isn't a guy I trust to make big plays. Fancher can scramble a bit, but he doesn't take many shots downfield. He is a dink and dunk type of quarterback. The new clock rules should matter more in a game like this where both teams lack big playmakers on offense, and they want to run the football a lot. Take the under here.
09-03-23	Oregon State v. San Jose State OVER 55		42-17	Win	100	97 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Jose State Spartans played a quick tempo last week against USC, and they put up 6.0 yards per play. While USC isn't a great defensive team, for the Spartans to put up those kind of numbers and have success offensively even in a neutral game state in the first half was impressive. Oregon State's offensive line is one of the best in the nation. Both Fenwick and Martinez are excellent running backs who are going to put up some big numbers this year. San Jose State's defensive line lost a ton of talent from last year. The Spartans are going to be much weaker on defense this season. DJ Uuiagalelei adds a dimension to the Oregon State offense too. Brian Lindgren is a great offensive coordinator and I like him to have a good plan set for this game. Oregon State's defense lost a lot from the secondary, and Speights is a big loss at linebacker as well. The Beavers are still decent defensively, but there is a clear drop off. San Jose State will push pace and hit some big plays here. Oregon State should consistently move the ball and put up a pretty big number here. Take the over in this one.
09-02-23	West Virginia v. Penn State UNDER 51.5		15-38	Loss	-105	150 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Penn State Nittany Lions have a fantastic defense. I think Penn State has the most talented defense in the Big Ten, and that is saying a lot with the talent Michigan and Ohio State have on defense. Penn State has the best secondary in the nation. The Nittany Lions have great linebackers as always, and their defensive line is elite at stopping the run. West Virginia has a new offensive coordinator in Chad Scott. It has been made clear in the offseason that the goal of this West Virginia new offense is to run the football and play with a much slower tempo. They will be helped in that regard by a pretty good offensive line and the new clock rules which will help them hold onto the football for longer. I am skeptical that they'll be able to score very many points here though against this excellent Nittany Lions defense. The Penn State offense has a new quarterback in Allar. I think he will be good in time, but the first game it wouldn't surprise me if they are a bit more cautious than normal. Penn State has good running backs and I think they'll run it plenty here. West Virginia's defense is better against the run than against the pass. Take the under here.
09-02-23	Texas State v. Baylor OVER 57.5		42-31	Win	100	341 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Texas State Bobcats are going to have a whole new look this year. G.J. Kinne is their new head coach this season. He comes over from Incarnate Word where his teams were prolific offensively. Incarnate Word scored 55 points or more in seven of their games last year. Kinne is terrific at working with quarterbacks, and Texas State has an improved quarterback room this year with Hornsby and Finley. Kinne has been talking about ever since getting hired how much he wants the team to push the tempo of the game. All of their practices have emphasized playing as fast as they can. I expect them to be moving at a very quick pace here in game one. Baylor's offense should be too much for a weak Texas State defense. The defensive line and linebackers are both badly outmanned here. Texas State is going to struggle on defense even in the Sun Belt, and Baylor should be able to put up a big number on them in this one. The Baylor defense wasn't elite last year, and on paper they are less talented this year. Baylor is weak in the secondary and Texas State will look to go vertical quite a bit this year. I won't be surprised if Texas State hits some big gainers on Baylor here. This number has been pulled down because of the new rules, but I think the pace will be very quick here and I like the value on this one. Take the over.
09-02-23	California v. North Texas OVER 55.5		58-21	Win	100	280 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Both of these teams have new offensive coordinators. Both coordinators are expected to push the pace. Cal has the same head coach, but Justin Wilcox is on the hot seat and he decided he needed to switch things up and get rid of the antiquated offense. Jake Spavital was brought in to completely change things up on offense. Cal will play much quicker and look to take more shots down the field. The team upgraded at both wide receiver and tight end in the offseason. We don't know who will be the starting quarterback, but I think they have three pretty decent options. North Texas got Chandler Rogers to transfer in from UL Monroe. He may start or it could be Jace Ruder or possibly even Stone Earle. The Mean Green have three guys who are capable. Eric Morris was hired as the new head coach this year, and Morris will call the plays here. In the scrimmages this team has played significantly faster and they have thrown the ball much more. The Mean Green defense switched to a 3-3-5, but I don't like their secondary. Running a 3-3-5 with a weak secondary can lead to a lot of big plays given up. Cal's defense has good linebackers, but overall they aren't nearly as strong on defense as they were a few years ago. This one has been bet down below the key number of 56, and I'm going to side with the over. I expect the tempo to stay very quick in this one. Take the over.