*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Houston Texans defense may not have started the season playing up to their potential, but they have started doing it in the last few weeks. The Texans defense has been amazing of late. Houston's pass rush is obviously very good with J.J. Watt leading the way, and the Bills offensive line is banged up. That's a bad combination for Tyrod Taylor and this offense. The Houston secondary is elite.

The Buffalo defense has been up and down this year, but I think they can slow a mediocre Houston offense. The Texans have primarily been so good lately because of their defense.

There are a lot of good defensive minded coaches in this game, and neither team has a star quarterback. While the public is betting the over, the line has dropped by a point during the week. Take the under. 

*4 Star Pac 12 Title MONEY Total* The Stanford Cardinal and USC Trojans meet in the Pac 12 title game this Saturday night. USC's defense has been a big disappointment this year. USC ranks number 70 in the nation in total defense this year. They are giving up 400 yards per game. USC gave up more than 40 points three times this year, including their first meeting this year with Stanford.

Stanford's defense isn't very good either. They are 50th in the nation in total defense. Stanford has allowed more than 30 points four times this year. USC has an improved running game since their first meeting with Stanford, and I think their improved balance as an offense will help them find success against Stanford's mediocre defense.

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best game breakers in the nation, and USC gives up a bunch of big plays. Kevin Hogan is a winner who makes big plays when needed. USC has plenty of offensive playmakers. The over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB MAC MONEYMAKER* The Bowling Green offense is as dynamic as they come, so this isn't an easy bet to make, but there are several reasons I like this one. Bowling Green's rushing defense has improved over the course of the season, and Northern Illinois has a very inexperienced quarterback under center. While I think Northern Illinois will still get plenty of yards on the ground, I think their inability to move it through the air will bog things down a bit in the red zone. Look for Bowling Green's defense to force Northern Illinois into some field goals.

In addition, Northern Illinois has a good coach and I'm going to assume that they know they need to slow the tempo of the game down. The Huskies aren't likely to be able to win a shootout here. They will likely look to run the ball a bunch and use up a lot of clock. 

One final key factor, the public is betting the over here in a big way (75-80%) and yet the total has edged down throughout the week. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Tennessee Titans have a good young quarterback in Marcus Mariota. The problem for them is he doesn't have enough weapons around him right now. Mariota has no playmakers on the outside to take advantage of the Raiders weakness, which is their secondary. Tennessee is primarily a running team now, but Oakland's rushing defense has been solid of late. 

On the other side, Tennessee has the sixth ranked defense in the NFL. The Titans defense has been underrated all year. The way Oakland moves it most frequently is through the air with rookie Amari Cooper on the outside and budding star Derek Carr under center. The Titans secondary is excellent though, and they rank third in the NFL in pass defense.

The under is 6-2 in the Titans last 8 home games. Look for a lower scoring game than expected. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Houston Texans and the New Orleans Saints both like to get a lot of plays off quickly. That should mean both offenses get a lot of possessions in this one. Houston's defense has been inconsistent this year. Drew Brees and the Saints offense has gotten much better over the course of the season. The Saints should be able to come up with some big plays in this one.

The New Orleans defense has been the worst defense in the league by a mile so far this year. Yes, I know Rob Ryan was fired, but I don't think there is going to be a quick fix here. Houston's offense has playmakers, and I expect DeAndre Hopkins to have a big day on the outside against Brandon Browner. 

The over is 4-1 in the Saints last 5 road games. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 home games. Take the over. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of Week* The Atlanta Falcons offense has been a disappointment all year. Matt Ryan hasn't played well. The offensive line in front of him hasn't protected him well. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the 7th least amount of passing yards in the NFL. It's no secret that Atlanta needs to be able to throw it effectively to score very many here. 

On the other side, Minnesota is the number one rushing offense in the NFL. They are dead last in the NFL in passing offense. If the Vikings can't run it, they are in serious trouble. Atlanta ranks first in the NFL against the run. They are giving up only 87.4 yards per game on the ground. Adrian Peterson will likely have a tougher time than usual against this strong defensive front. Coach Quinn has done a really nice job with this Falcons defense.

Both defenses present a real challenge for the offenses in this game. 

The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 after a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Falcons last 7 after an ATS loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 on turf. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards passing or more. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls defense held a very good Memphis offense to only four field goals last weekend. Temple has struggle with offenses that have a good runner at quarterback, but UConn doesn't have that. In fact, UConn's starting QB is listed as questionable here. Even with him, the team is averaging less than 20 points per game against a relatively weak schedule. UConn has been much more competitive this year thanks to their ability to shut down the running game. Temple's offense isn't dynamic, and UConn should be able to slow them down. Both defenses have a clear advantage. Take the under. *Note- This has moved down since I picked it earlier this week- I would play this for 3 stars at anything below 42. Thank you.*

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves rushed for nearly 500 yards against New Mexico State last year! That's video game type numbers, and I won't be surprised if they come close to reaching it again. New Mexico State ranks third worst in the country in run defense and they are allowing more than six yards per carry. The Red Wolves offense likes to play fast and they have a good runner at QB in Knighten and two good RB's. New Mexico State's offense has been much better in recent weeks, and Arkansas State isn't very good defensively. Expect a shootout. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* The Vanderbilt Commodores have been a great team for under bettors this year. Vanderbilt hasn't been able to get an offense going all year, but the defense is much better than it was a year ago. Coach Mason has a strong defensive background and the team has taken to that identity this year. Tennessee has played well in recent weeks. I had the under in their game last week against Missouri and the Volunteers did all they needed to do to win against a bad offense. I expect the same from them in this one.

The Volunteers clearly have the much more talented team, and I expect them to win. Having said that, these rivalry games can be closer than expected, and Vanderbilt's defensive numbers are impressive. The Volunteers may well be needing to kick field goals and win in an ugly contest. Vanderbilt isn't going to be able to get much of anything going offensively. 

The under is 7-0 in Vanderbilt's last 7 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 275 yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after throwing for 170 yards or less last game. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Volunteers last 4 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground last game. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 between these teams. 

Take the under big! CFB Top Play of the Week 

*4 Star NCAA FB Big 10 Total* The Illinois Fighting Illini and Northwestern Wildcats are pretty similar teams in that they both struggle on offense and are much improved on defense. Northwestern obviously has the much better record, but the line here indicates Las Vegas expects a close game throughout. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds through the game, which will likely mean even more running than there would have been. A running clock with a bunch of running plays is great news for under bettors. Both defensive lines are strong. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Syracuse Orange offense has been a mess all year. The Boston College offense is an absolute disaster. While Syracuse's defense isn't nearly as good as they have been in recent years, they don't really need to be to hold down Boston College. Boston College hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game vs. an FBS opponent all year. There's no reason to expect it here either. At the same time, Syracuse is so bad that Boston College is the favorite in this game. There are plenty of reasons to expect a really sloppy game where neither team can get going. 

The under is 4-0 in Boston College's last 4 November games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 10-1 in Boston College's last 11 following a loss. A 20-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Georgia Bulldogs defense has been very good this year. They have given up 6 points or less on three occasions. They've allowed 14 points or less in six games this year. Georgia Tech's offense has been really struggling to score touchdowns this year. The Yellow Jackets confidence is extremely low right now, and Georgia's defense is likely to make it tough for them here. On the other side, Georgia has no passing game. The Bulldogs have a good running game, but when you are completely one-dimensional it makes you much easier to defend. In rivalry games like this one, we typically see lower scoring games.

The under is 5-0 in Georgia's last 5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 20 points or less. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after giving up 170 yards or less through the air last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up more than 200 rushing yards. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Packers/Bears Thanksgiving Night CASH* The Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears meet in Green Bay on Thursday night. The weather in this one should play a major role. There is supposed to be rain changing to sleet with winds of 25 mph or more during this game. That's a really bad weather forecast for points. Jay Cutler and the Bears offense weren't likely to have much of an edge anyways, and the weather should hurt them a lot. Green Bay will likely be more conservative with their play calling on offense.

The under is 5-0 in the Bears last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. *Note- This line has been moving down with the weather forecast being nasty. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars at any price below that. Thank you*

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Arizona Cardinals offense has been dynamic this year. Carson Palmer gets to play against his old team here, and I expect Arizona to move the ball well. The Bengals defense hasn't played against too many elite offenses yet, and they will on Sunday. While the Bengals defense is solid, I don't think they are as good as the numbers make them look so far this season.

On the other end, Arizona's defense has been giving up quite a few big plays. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense definitely looked bad last weekend, but the Bengals offense has been very good overall this year. Tyler Eifert had 3 critical drops last week, but Eifert has been a huge difference maker for the offense this season. I expect him to have a big game in a good matchup for him.

Expect a close game where both offenses move the ball throughout the game. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Oakland Raiders passing attack has been really fantastic this year. Oakland struggled against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, but look at how they have done against other defenses this year. Oakland scored 35 points on Pittsburgh. They scored 34 against a good Jets defense. They scored 37 against Baltimore and 37 against San Diego. Detroit's defense is giving up 29 points per game.

The Detroit Lions can't run the ball, but they can throw it. Detroit has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and no one in this Oakland secondary can slow him down. The Raiders secondary has given up the second most yards per game through the air in the NFL. Matt Stafford should throw for a ton of yards here. 

With both teams airing it out and moving it right down the field, I'll suggest a play on the over in this one. Take the over.

*4 Star Pac 12 Total* The Washington State Cougars offense is a well-oiled machine with Luke Falk at quarterback. He's the perfect fit for a Mike Leach offense. Washington State doesn't run the ball because they don't need to. Colorado's secondary has been picked apart all year, and it should happen again here. Falk has a bunch of great wide receivers, and Colorado doesn't have the secondary to keep them in check.

Washington State's defense has been giving up a ton of yards, and Colorado's backup quarterback is a guy the team is very high on. He'll start here and I think he has a good opportunity to do well for the Buffaloes against a mediocre at best defense. Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Play of Week* The Boston College Eagles have the number one ranked defense in the nation. Why do they have such a bad record? Because their offense is awful. 

Boston College is giving up only 2.12 yards per carry this year, which is truly an amazing number. The Eagles defense has allowed 14 points or less in 6 of their 10 games this season. Steve Addazio's team works extremely hard on the defensive end.

Boston College has one of the worst offenses in the country. How bad are they? Well they have scored 10 points or less in 5 of their 8 games this year against FBS opponents. They haven't scored more than 17 points against an FBS opponent this year! 

Notre Dame's defense isn't great, but they should look great against Boston College's offense. The Fighting Irish and the Eagles both play at a slow tempo. We should see the game clock moving most of the time with a lot of running the football here. 

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 9-1 in Boston College's last 10 following a loss. A 15-1 angle. Take the under big! NCAA FB TOP Play of the Week

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Missouri Tigers defense has been great all year and their offense has been awful all year. For some reason, Missouri's offensive coaches have decided to continue to try to throw the ball with Drew Lock at quarterback despite him having next to no success all year. The running game doesn't get enough carries. Tennessee's defense is pretty good against the run, and Missouri will struggle to score.

Tennessee's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Volunteers are likely to face a very spirited Missouri defense though in what is Gary Pinkel's last home game coaching the Missouri Tigers. This defense has been nasty at home.

The weather here looks like it could be helpful too. The wind will gust to 25 miles per hour, which definitely hurts the offense.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Volunteers last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 after giving up less than 100 rushing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 SEC games. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Oregon State Beavers starting quarterback is out. Their second string quarterback has struggled and he is dinged up. He will either play hurt or they'll be on their third string quarterback. Washington's defense has impressed me all year. The Huskies stop unit is unlikely to give up much of anything against this Oregon State offense. I'll be very surprised if Oregon tops 14 points. 

Washington's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and traditionally Oregon State's defense plays much better at home. The Beavers have spoken about their poor performances against Washington of late and they want to make amends for those showings. The defense should show improvement in this game.

The under is 7-0 in the Huskies last 7 road games. The under is 7-0 in Washington's last 7 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 2-0 in Oregon State's last 2 home games. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs have steadily improved their offensive production for the year. Old Dominion's defense has been awful all year. They are allowing 34 points per game. Southern Miss' offense averages 38.6 per contest, and the Golden Eagles are one of the most improved teams in the nation this year. They average 5.22 yards per carry, and Mullens is a very good quarterback in this system. Look for a lot of big plays from both offenses. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes defense has been elite against the run, but they have given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Josh Rosen and the UCLA wideouts should be able to take advantage of that. Utah's offense has big play ability, and I think this UCLA defense has been one of the most overrated units in the country this season. They are now without their best two players in the front seven, and Utah should move the ball a lot in this one. Weather won't be an issue here and I'll take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The North Carolina Tar Heels are playing some tremendous football of late. I don't think they have gotten the credit they deserve. North Carolina has always had a great offense, but this year their defense has stepped up in a big way. The Tar Heels secondary has turned into one of the best in the country. Gene Chizik is doing great work with this unit. 

Virginia Tech's defense has had a lot of injuries this year, but they are still a solid unit, especially against the pass. Bud Foster will dial up some unique blitz packages to confuse the Tar Heels offense here. Virginia Tech is playing their final home game, which means this is Frank Beamer's last game in Blacksburg. Expect a spirited effort from the Hokies defense.

The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two at Virginia Tech. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings overall. A 12-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Patriots/Giants MONEY* The New England Patriots offense has been a well-oiled machine all year. There's no reason to believe that New York can do anything to slow them down here. The Giants secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Tom Brady obviously has all the ability and all the weapons necessary to expose that weakness. 

Much has been made of the Patriots willingness to score as much as possible here because of their losses to the Giants in the past. I think that's something that helps the over even more than the side here. The Patriots secondary hasn't been tested by very many good passing games, and the Giants passing attack has been very good this year. Eli Manning is really throwing the ball well. 

I expect a lot of scoring from both sides in this game. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 November games. The over is 4-0 in their last on turf. The over is 4-0 in the Pats last 4 during week 10 of the season. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Oakland Raiders offense is far better this year than they have been in the past. The running game has been far better than anyone thought it would be, and Derek Carr has been amazing. Amari Cooper really helps this team a lot because of his playmaking abilities on the outside.

Minnesota's ground game is likely to get going against an Oakland defense that has been bad this year. Pittsburgh ran the ball at will against Oakland last week. Bridgewater has been cleared to play, and I think he can have some big plays in play action passing here thanks to the running game and its success.

Rain is expected here, but I still expect enough big plays to get this one over the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Rams and the Chicago Bears have both struggled on offense this year. The Rams have a very limited playbook, and Nick Foles hasn't been good at all in this offense. While Jay Cutler has been improved this year, he faces a great defensive line that will put a bunch of pressure on him in this game. Cutler isn't likely to pass this test well. This Rams defense is a whole different animal than taking on San Diego.

The Rams rushing attack is clearly very good, but their drives use up a lot of time. St. Louis doesn't look to snap it quickly at all, and the Rams will face a lot of people in the box in this game. I don't see many big plays on either side.

The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 10 overall. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. The under is 7-1 in the Bears last 8 after gaining 250 yards or more through the air last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Play of the MONTH* The UCLA Bruins defense is missing their top three players, and it has shown on multiple occasions this year. Stanford put up 56 points in three quarters against them. Colorado lit them up for 31 points and a whopping 554 yards. Colorado had 312 passing yards in that game. In their home loss to Arizona State, UCLA allowed 465 yards of total offense.

Washington State's offense is great with Luke Falk at the quarterback spot. Falk is the perfect quarterback for Mike Leach's system. Falk is a tall quarterback who sees over the defense. He gets rid of the ball quickly, and he spreads the ball around to all of Washington State's talented receivers. The Cougars wide receivers have a definite advantage over UCLA's banged up secondary.

UCLA's offense should move the ball with ease as well. As usual, Washington State doesn't have much at all in the way of defense. The Cougars defense is giving up 30.1 points per game. They have allowed at least 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Josh Rosen looks great at quarterback, and Paul Perkins is underrated as running back at UCLA.

Both teams move the ball well here. This line is far too low. Take the over big! College Football TOP Play of the Month. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Totals Takedown* The Cincinnati Bearcats have an excellent quarterback in Gunner Kiel. Kiel threw for more than 500 yards last week at Houston. He could put up those kinds of numbers once again here. Tulsa has a very weak secondary that should be exploited by the combination of Kiel and Cincinnati's very good wide receivers. 

Tulsa plays at the single fastest pace of any team in the country. The Golden Hurricane will be working against a Cincinnati defense that has struggled both last year and this year. With weather conditions looking good for Saturday's game, I see a shootout in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Houston Cougars and Memphis Tigers can both put up points in a hurry. Houston is a really well balanced offense that hasn't been stopped very effectively by anyone this year. Memphis has Paxton Lynch, an excellent quarterback, and the Tigers should be able to move the ball through the air effectively. Houston's defense allowed more than 500 yards passing last week against Cincinnati. The Memphis defense was just torched by Navy last weekend. Memphis' defense is likely to be hurting a little extra, because the blocking schemes that Navy runs are noted as being tough to bounce back from right away. Both teams push the tempo and I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* This Texas State defense is among the worst in the nation, and Georgia State's is barely any better. In fact, they both rank in the bottom 15 out of 128 teams in the nation in terms of total defense. Both offense play at a quick pace, so we should see a lot of snaps in this one. With these two defenses on the field a lot, I think there will be a lot of big plays from both teams. I think this game gets into the 70's in a close game where both offenses put up points easily. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has put together some really impressive performances this year. Vanderbilt gave up only 14 points to an amazing Western Kentucky offense earlier this year. They allowed only 9 points last week at Florida. They have allowed 14 points or less in six of their nine games so far this year. Kentucky's offense has been a mess this year. Vanderbilt's offense is a disaster right now. For as good as the defense is, the offense is that bad. They were shutout by Houston and then scored only 7 at Florida. Western Kentucky's awful defense allowed only 12 points against Vanderbilt. This total is low for a reason.

The under is 5-0 in Vandy's last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 yards rushing or less. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 170 yards passing or less. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 games between these two teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Alabama/Mississippi State MONEY* The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is outstanding. The show that defensive front put on against LSU and Leonard Fournette. Holding him to 31 yards rushing is an amazing accomplishment. Mississippi State isn't nearly the dynamic offense they were last year. The Bulldogs have an exceptional quarterback in Dak Prescott, but he has little help around him. Prescott is accustomed to running the football a lot, but I can't imagine Alabama's defensive front letting him get much running room here.

Mississippi State's defense has been excellent this year as well. Alabama has a good ground game, but the passing attack is questionable at best. The Bulldogs defense has been great at home in recent years, and they have stopped Alabama well in the past. 

The under is 8-1 in the Bulldogs last 9 SEC games. The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Starkville. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave did a really nice job defending the triple option when they played Navy a few weeks ago. Navy won that game, but it wasn't nearly as easy as expected for the Midshipmen. Tulane's defense should be able to defend the Army triple option well again here. Navy runs the triple option more effectively than Army does. 

Army moves at the slowest pace of any team in the country. That means we'll see a lot of running clock and the play clock rolling down to a couple seconds before snapping it. The Tulane offense has been woeful all year. Army's defense isn't very good, but they should be able to contain Tulane's offense enough. Take the under here. *Note- This line has moved a few points- I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars down to 42.5.*

*3 Star Broncos/Colts Totals CASH* The Indianapolis Colts offense has struggled to get going all year. Andrew Luck has been in a funk since coming back. He looked good late in the game at Carolina, but I think that was more about Carolina's defense getting into the prevent too early than anything else.

This Denver defense is scary good. They have the best pass rush in the NFL by a wide margin. They are solid against the run (Indianapolis has a poor running game). Denver also has a tremendous secondary. They are clearly the best defensive unit in the league.

Denver's offense looked better last week, but I'm still not convinced on this unit. The Broncos offensive numbers for the year are really bad. Indianapolis needs this game and they should bring a lot of intensity. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. Jameis Winston started out poorly in the NFL, but he has looked solid of late. The New York Giants pass defense is currently ranked dead last in the league. They made Drew Brees look like the best quarterback of all time last weekend. Brees is very good, but he isn't that good, especially with questionable weapons around him. Tampa Bay's defense has given up a bunch of yards in their last couple games vs. Washington and Atlanta. New York's passing game has been good, and Eli Manning has been sharp overall this year. I see both teams putting up quite a few here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers defense has been really good at home this year. Their splits home vs. away are remarkable. The Atlanta Falcons offense has been weaker in recent weeks. San Francisco's defense did a really nice job against Green Bay when they came to the Bay Area a few weeks ago. 

Colin Kaepernick has been benched and Blaine Gabbert is now the starter for the Niners. Kaepernick deserved to be benched with the way he had been playing, but does anyone really think Gabbert is the answer? Gabbert has been even worse than Kaepernick in his career, and Gabbert isn't likely to look good against an improving Falcons defense. Atlanta brought in a new head coach that would focus on defense, and it is working out for them.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Falcons last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 4-0 in the Niners last 4 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Month* The Oakland Raiders offense has been amazing. Derek Carr is playing exceptionally well. It's amazing what he has been able to do with some extra weapons around him. Everyone knows that Amari Cooper has been very good in his rookie year, but the Oakland running game has also been better than most people realize. Murray has been a good back for Oakland. 

Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss where they lost at home to Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger struggled in his first game back from an injury. Big Ben is one of the best quarterbacks in this league though, and I see a great bounce back opportunity for him here. Oakland's secondary has been abused on a regular basis. Only the Giants secondary has worse numbers than Oakland. With Big Ben and his impressive pass catchers, Oakland is going to have a rough time again in pass defense.

Both teams should have plenty of scoring chances throughout this game. The over is 5-0 in the Raiders last 5 in Week 9. The over is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 vs. the AFC. Take the over big! 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears have come undone in recent weeks after starting the season red hot. Cal's passing attack hasn't been as good lately. They should look a lot better in this one against an Oregon secondary that has been blasted by every decent quarterback they have gone up against. Goff has a bounce back game here. 

Vernon Adams makes this Oregon Ducks offense so much better. He was injured earlier this year, and the team just couldn't get going like normal. He's now healthy, and he's the playmaker the team was missing. Adams makes something out of nothing on a consistent basis.

It's expected to be rainy for this one, but importantly wind isn't expected to be a factor. Rain itself doesn't necessarily hurt scoring because there can actually be more turnovers that lead to easy points or special teams touchdowns. Wind is a negative for the over, but wind isn't going to hurt here.

Look for a high scoring game. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Washington Huskies defense has been tremendous this year. Washington wasn't expected to do much of anything this year, and the fact that they have tells me Chris Petersen is doing a great job here. The Huskies offense still needs a lot of work, but their defense has been amazing in their last few contests.

Utah's defensive line is the best in the Pac 12. Look for them to make life very difficult on Browning and the Huskies offensive front. Devontae Booker is the Utes main weapon on offense and they have to give him the ball a bunch here. Washington has been great against the run though.

The weather is important here as well with rain and winds of 15 to 20 mph possible during the game. That weather is favorable for the under. Take the under big. 

*Note- This line has moved significantly since I played it early in the week- I would currently play the under for 3 stars. Thank you*

*4 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen know they don't want a high scoring affair against a Memphis team that can put up the points in a hurry. What will they do? They'll look to play keep away with Keenan Reynolds and their tremendous triple option attack. Look for Navy to slowly drive the ball down the field and hold a big time of possession advantage in this game. I think both teams will score on a lot of drives here, but I don't think there will be enough possessions for them to get past this very high total.

It's very rare to see this high of a total in a Navy game because of their methodical style of play. I see it as a good chance to take the value on the under. Look for this one to stay in the 50's. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* These two teams are a lot like each other. Both of them have a defense that plays hard and rallies to the ball. They both also have a terrible offense that has struggled to put together consistent drives against anyone. Last year when these teams met the final score was 12-3! I'm not necessarily saying this one will be that low, but I do think it will be another game with a lot of field goals. This one has sloppy game written all over it.

Both of these teams run the ball a lot, and both defenses are solid against the run. Tulane's defense really impressed me a couple weeks ago when they played Navy. UConn's defense has gotten better quickly under Bob Diaco. Neither team is designed in a way where they will make big plays very often. We'll look for a lot of running clock and strong defense from both teams throughout.

The under is 9-0 in Tulane's last 9 games after gaining 170 yards or less through the air last game. The under is 6-0 in UConn's last 6 after allowing less than 170 passing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in the Huskies last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing last game. A 19-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*4 Star CFB Rivalry Total* The Air Force Falcons and Army Cadets both run the triple option all the time. I've had a lot of success playing unders in these situations before. Air Force and Army both defend the triple option on a daily basis, and that gives their defense a huge advantage over other teams who aren't accustomed to playing against this defense. 

Since both teams will be running the ball almost every single down, the clock will be ticking a lot in this one. That's really important when you bet an under. Additionally, Army's tempo is the slowest in the country so far this year, so they really milk the clock. 

The familiarity with the triple option should lead to a lower than expected game. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Here's a game between two defenses that are regressing and two offenses that are improving on a weekly basis. Washington State's offense has the perfect signal caller in Luke Falk. Falk spreads the ball around to the many talented wide receivers for the Cougars. There hasn't been a defense that has been able to stop them yet this year.

Arizona State is good against the run, but Washington State doesn't even attempt to run the football. The Cougars are going to be airing it out. Washington State's defense has been unable to stop anyone this year. Arizona State has been a lot better in recent weeks on offense.

This number is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Michigan Wolverines defense didn't look quite as good last week in their close win over Rutgers. They should look a whole lot better here against a Rutgers offense that is a disaster right now.

Rutgers scored 7 points on Ohio State two weeks ago and that was a touchdown with 30 seconds left against the Buckeyes second and third team defensive players. Last week, Rutgers scored only 3 points on offense against Wisconsin. It wouldn't surprise me to see them shutout or very close to it in this one.

Michigan's offense is a run first attack and they move very slowly. They aren't going to pile up a bunch of points on many people. The wind is expected to be 20 to 25 mph during this game, which means both passing attacks should struggle. 

The under is 6-0 in the Wolverines last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. I think they make it 7 straight unders. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers had a big lead last year when they played at Florida Atlantic. They blew that lead and suffered a stunning loss. They'll be out for revenge here. Western Kentucky's offense is dynamic with Brandon Doughty spreading the ball around to a bunch of wide receivers. Now Anthony Wales has turned into a game breaker at the running back spot as well. This offense is scary good, and Florida Atlantic's defense hasn't been good against even subpar offenses. Western Kentucky is going to put up a big number here. 

The Hilltoppers still have a weak defense as evidenced by Old Dominion scoring a bunch on them last week. Florida Atlantic should be able to get in the end zone several times as well.

*Note- This line has moved up since I picked earlier in the week. I would play this for 4 stars up to 66 and for 3 stars up to 70 points. Thank you*

*4 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Missouri Tigers haven't seen a single game this year go over the posted total. Missouri has the perfect combination of a terrible offense and a great defense. Missouri has virtually no passing game, and the running game is slowed down by quality defenses because they stack the box. Mississippi State has been great against the run this year, and I can't imagine the Bulldogs are going to let Missouri bet them on the ground here.

Dak Prescott is a really good quarterback for Mississippi State, but he clearly has less weapons around him than he did last year. Prescott is likely to have a difficult time against this Missouri defense. The Tigers defensive line is great at getting into the backfield and sacking the quarterback or stuffing a run behind the line.

This line has surprisingly climbed so far this week. I'm glad to take the under in this spot because my number for this one was 39 points. 

The under is 8-0 in the Bulldogs last 8 SEC games. The under is 5-0 in Missouri's last 5 after giving up 20 points or less last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 170 yards or less through the air. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 SEC games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 games overall. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Seahawks/Cowboys Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks defense is better than they have shown so far this year. This is a crucial game for the Seahawks as they look to enter their bye week at 4-4 on the season. The Dallas offense isn't very good with Cassel at quarterback. Dez Bryant's back here, but the Seattle secondary is one of the better units in the NFL and they should be fine against him.

Seattle's offensive line has had major problems this year. Dallas has a great pass rush and I think that will give Seattle a bunch of issues here. Russell Wilson has been sacked more than any other quarterback so far this year. Look for him to be on the run trying to get away from this elite Cowboys defensive line. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has really shown signs of wearing down the last couple weeks. Auburn's very weak offense was able to move the ball consistently against them, and then last week Dak Prescott and Mississippi State did whatever they wanted against this Kentucky defense. Tennessee had a rough time offensively against Alabama, but this Volunteers offense has been very good against lesser defenses, and that's what Kentucky is this year. Tennessee's defense has been mediocre at best. These are two teams that play at a pretty quick tempo. Take the over.

*The line has moved since I selected this earlier this week. I would play this one up to 58 points. Thank you*

*3 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Georgia State Panthers have a similar strategy on offense when it comes to getting off a bunch of plays. Both teams look to hustle to the line and get the snap off quickly. That's a big benefit for over bettors because it creates more plays and more chances to score. Arkansas State's defense has regressed this year, and they have been giving up a lot of big plays. Georgia State's defense is one of the worst in the nation. The Panthers should get absolutely torched by Arkansas State's elite ground game. Both Knighten and Gordon have game breaking ability in the backfield. This total dropped throughout the week, which gives us a nice value play.

The over is 6-0 in Georgia State's last 6 following an ATS cover. The over is 7-0 in Arkansas State's last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 October games. An 18-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Florida Gators defense is still one of the best in the country. Florida's offense will likely have a difficult time making big plays without Will Grier. At the same time, I see Georgia having a ton of trouble on offense in this game. Georgia's Greyson Lambert hasn't played a good game against a top defense yet, and I don't think this will be one either. Florida is going to dare Georgia to beat them through the air here. Look for Florida to stack the box and do a nice job slowing down the Bulldogs running game. This should be a hard fought game where both defenses have the upper hand. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been a scoring machine this year. Mahomes has proven to be an upgrade at the quarterback spot and that has made this Red Raiders offense much more dangerous than they were last year. Mahomes does a good job getting rid of the ball quickly, and he spreads it around to all their talented receivers. 

Oklahoma State's offense has feasted on the Texas Tech defense for years now, and I don't see why it would be any different this year. Oklahoma State's quarterback play has been better recently, and Texas Tech's secondary has been making everyone look good this year.

Both of these teams love to play an uptempo style and we will see a ton of big plays throughout this game. The combination of a quick pace and explosive plays is great for the over. This number is high, but it's high for good reason. 

The over is 7-0 in Texas Tech's last 7 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 40 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record on the road. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star ACC Total* The Boston College Eagles offense is just horrendous. How bad were they last week? Boston College had 4 first downs and 79 total yards of offense against a Louisville defense that is decent, but not amazing. Wow. Boston College is routinely scoring less than 10 points in games. Virginia Tech's offense is once again underperforming this year, but the defense is solid with a great coordinator in Bud Foster. Look for both teams to struggle to get anything going offensively in this game. While this total is posted extremely low, it's low for a reason. I made this total 34 points, and with the way both of these offenses have looked lately, I'm taking the under. 

*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total* The Wisconsin Badgers have been a very good under team this year. It makes sense because Wisconsin has one of the top five defenses in the country. In the past, the Badgers have had one of the best ground games in the country, but they don't this year. Wisconsin's offensive line has struggled throughout the year, and the running back situation hasn't been nearly as good thanks to injury issues. Rutgers has been pretty good at slowing down the running attack this year, so I think they can hold their own for the most part. Rutgers' Leonte Caroo is questionable with an injury this weekend and he's a huge deal to this offense. The Scarlet Knights offense has virtually no passing game without him. Last week, Ohio State held Rutgers scoreless until Rutgers scored with a few seconds left in the game on a garbage touchdown. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Pittsburgh Panthers are playing at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. Pittsburgh is a team that is going to run the ball early and often, and they are going to use the clock. In their final drive against Syracuse last week, they ran off nearly 10 minutes of clock and kicked a field goal. Those are the kind of things that under bettors have to love. It doesn't hurt that the Panthers have a strong defense either.

North Carolina is known for their offense, but Gene Chizik has done a really nice job with this team's defense this year. This defense was a laughing stock a year ago, and now they have been pretty good this season.

Another important factor here is the weather. There are expected to be wind gusts of 30 mph at times throughout this game. What does that mean? Well it means their should be a lot more running, and running the football means a running clock. It also usually means less explosive plays. 

The under is 6-0 in North Carolina's last 6 Thursday games. Take the under in this one. 

*Surprisingly- this line has moved up. I would take the under for a 4 star play at 59 points or higher. Thank you. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles meet in primetime. Carolina is unbeaten and Philadelphia is playing better of late. What's making them turn things around? It's not the offense. It's been the Eagles defense, which is still being severely underrated in my opinion. The Eagles have been shutting down some good offenses of late, and I'm not convinced this Carolina offense is good. Cam Newton doesn't have enough weapons on the outside for this offense to beat a good defense consistently. Carolina is up against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. 

Sam Bradford still looks terrible in this Philly offense and the Panthers run defense should make Philadelphia work very hard for every yard they get on the ground. I see both teams settling for field goals throughout. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Steelers will likely go with Landry Jones here. They moved Tyler Murphy to active at QB which suggests that Big Ben will probably not play here. With Jones as the expected signal caller, I think the Steelers do a lot of running the football. Kansas City always tries to run the football a lot because their passing game is so poor. Jeremy Maclin is dinged up which hurts the passing game even more. Pittsburgh's defense has given up a lot of yards through the air, but they are very good against the run. Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs just don't have offensive weapons. Both teams rank in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of pace of play. 

The under is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up more than 350 total yards of offense. The under is 6-0-1 in the Steelers last 7 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AFC. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is far worse than it was a year ago. Dak Prescott is still a great playmaker at quarterback, but he has very little help around him. The Bulldogs have been able to put up points in bunches against non-conference opponents, but they haven't been very good against SEC foes. Kentucky's defensive improvement is the main reason this team has been far more competitive in the last couple seasons. I made this total 51.5, so I see enough value to make a play.

The under is 7-0 in the Bulldogs last 7 conference games. The under is 3-0-1 in Kentucky's last 4 conference games. The under is 5-0-1 in Kentucky's last 6 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Utah/USC Total DOMINATION* The USC Trojans put forth a good effort last weekend in Notre Dame, but they came home with a loss. USC's offensive line has had issues this year, and the Trojans are playing against the best defensive front in the conference in Utah. The Utes will be pressuring Cody Kessler all night on Saturday. The USC offense has been very inconsistent this year, and in recent years they have had trouble moving the ball against Utah. While Utah's defense and special teams are tremendous, the Utes are too one dimensional on offense. Booker is a great runner, but they have no other playmakers on offense. A total of 60 is too high with these two teams. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* The UTEP Miners offense is totally lost without their starting quarterback and starting running back. Aaron Jones was the team's leading rusher last year, and they were counting on him to be the star again this year, but he is injured and likely out for the season. Without him at running back, this team is a mess. UTEP's pace of play is one of the 5 slowest in the country. Florida Atlantic's defense is better than their offense. The defense isn't special, but they shouldn't need to be to slow down this UTEP offense. This one should be ugly all the way, but ugly is usually a good thing for under bettors. The line has shifted down a bit since I bet this one early in the week, but it's still a 5 star play for me. My number for this game was only 45 points.

The under is 5-1 in FAU's last 6 on turf. The under is 4-0 in UTEP's last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 13-1 angle. Take the under big! 

*3 Star Play Over* The Idaho Vandals defense is one of the five worst in the country. Anytime I see an Idaho posted total this low, the over is worth a look. Louisiana Monroe had a solid defense in the past, but this year they have been much weaker. Both of these teams play quickly and there should be a lot of possessions for both offenses. The total was hit down in the market which made this one get into the play range for me. Look for a back and forth game that goes over the total. Last year, the final was 38-31 when these two played. This one gets to the 60's too. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Wildcats rank second in the nation in terms of pace per play. They love to play uptempo. Mike Leach has always been an uptempo guy, and he has a great quarterback in Luke Falk. Falk threw 6 touchdowns in the first half last weekend! Arizona's defense has been torched on a consistent basis this year, and I think Washington State will do the same to them here. Arizona's defense wasn't great to start with, and now they are banged up. Washington State's defense is bad once again this year, and Rich Rod's team has lots of speed and weapons on offense. 

The over is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 after a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 280 yards or more passing. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after running for 200 yards or more last game. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 overall. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The South Florida Bulls and the SMU Mustangs both rank in the bottom 25 in terms of pace in the nation. With a high total and two teams that take a lot of time in between plays, there is value on the under. South Florida's defense is the best unit on the field here, and SMU should have trouble scoring. While USF might be capable of winning this one big, I don't see them running up the score in a spot where they would likely be better to rest their players and be happy with a comfortable win. Take the under. *Note- This line has moved since I selected it on Monday. I would play this one down to 58.5 points which is available at most books now late in the week. Thank you*

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Wisconsin Badgers have become a really good under team. The Badgers defense is as strong as ever. They are good against both the run and the pass. The Wisconsin offense though is much weaker than they have been in recent years. Corey Clement is hurt and the backups aren't getting the job done in the running game. The offensive line is far less dominating than they have been in recent years. Joel Stave isn't a good quarterback either. Illinois has slowed down their tempo and they have played some low scoring games this year. The weather is important here too. Winds of 20 mph with showers are expected during the game. That's good news for under bettors.

The under is 5-0 in the Badgers last 5. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 20 points or less. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 275 yards or less. The under is 4-0 in Illinois' last 4 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 200 yards or more on the ground last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Mac Total* The Ohio Bobcats defense is one of the best in the MAC. They didn't show it last week. Frank Solich is a great coach, and I expect he will have this Ohio defense ready to go this week. The Bobcats are a team that runs the ball a lot on offense and uses up the clock and so is Buffalo. Buffalo's star running back is Anthone Taylor. He is listed as questionable here, and even if he does play he won't be 100 percent. This should be a close game all the way, but I think it will be low scoring. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Panthers defense has been amazing this year led by new head coach Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi was awesome as Michigan State's defensive coordinator, and now the Panthers defense has immediately gotten better in a big way. Pitt only allowed 100 total yards of offense a couple weeks ago at Virginia Tech. The Panthers defensive line will have a huge advantage over Syracuse's offensive front. The Orange are starting a quarterback who simply isn't very good. He started the year as the fifth quarterback option for the team. Pittsburgh will run the ball and use up clock. Look for Pitt to win a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*This line has moved since I first selected it- I recommend playing this for 4 stars down to 49 and it would be a 3 star play down to 46. Thank you*

*4 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers are a team that doesn't make much sense to me. There's no question they are at a big talent disadvantage against just about everyone on their schedule (Southern Miss included), but they continue to play as fast as possible. Charlotte ranks 10th in the nation in pace. It is crushing their defense. The 49ers defense is giving up 32.3 points per game (that figure will likely continue to rise) and they have been torched by anyone that has a decent passing game. Southern Miss' offense is much improved this year. Southern Miss puts up a big number and Charlotte does enough. Take the over.

*This line has moved significantly since I picked it late on Monday. I would play this for 4 stars up to 62 and for 3 stars up to 65.5. Thank you*

*4 Star UCLA/Cal Total DOMINATION* The Cal Golden Bears offense is excellent with Jared Goff at the helm. Goff can shred up most secondaries, and UCLA's defense is much weaker now that they have lost Moreau (best CB) Jack (best LB) and Vanderdoes (best DL). The Bruins defense has been really bad in recent weeks, and I think they give up a bunch of points here too. At the same time, Cal's defense isn't impressive. While they are a little better than they have been in the past couple years, they are still weak. Josh Rosen is a very good freshman, and the UCLA ground game is impressive with Paul Perkins leading the way. I think this game gets into the 70's. Take the over. 

*Note- This line has gone up  since I selected this Monday. I would make this play all the way up to 71 points. Thank you*

*4 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Georgia Southern Eagles take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers in what should be a really interesting game. Georgia Southern's triple option attack is really good, but they meet an Appalachian State team that has the best defense in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State hosts here, and this is a huge game for both teams. Appalachian State essentially never gets to host a television game, but that's what they have here. Expect a really good home field advantage for them. Appalachian State's offense and Georgia Southern's offense have something in common: they both move very slowly and run it almost every down. 

With almost no passing going on, it will be tough to reach this high of a posted total. The clock will keep running throughout this game. The last two meetings between these two have stayed well under the posted total. The under is 5-1 in App State's last 6 games overall. I think Appalachian State's defense defends the triple option well and this game stays under the total. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Tuesday Night Total DOMINATION* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have a high powered offense led by Fredi Knighten. Knighten is the team's star quarterback. He missed a few games earlier this year, and the team suffered, but he came back last week and the offense looked great in a 49-27 win. Arkansas State lost 55-40 despite gaining 595 yards last year when these two teams met. Louisiana Lafayette isn't the team they were last year, but they should get scoring chances against an Arkansas State defense that isn't very good. This is a conference where high scoring games is the norm, and I think we'll see another one of them on Tuesday night. 

The over is 6-0 in Arkansas State's last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games in October. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 14-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Patriots/Colts Sunday Night CASH* The New England Patriots offense has been unstoppable this year. Do you really think the Patriots are going to want to let off the gas against the Indianapolis Colts? Remember, this is the team that started the whole Deflategate issues after their loss in the playoffs. New England should be out for blood here. Tom Brady and this Patriots offense are clearly capable of putting up a huge number here.

At the same time, Andrew Luck is expected back for the Colts, and the New England defense has looked shaky against good offenses this year. The Patriots secondary is a question mark for me. I think the Colts can put up plenty of points in this one as well.

I think there's a good chance this game gets into the 60's. With the line this low, I see a lot of value on the over.

The over is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks offense just hasn't been able to get going this year. Even in last week's game in Cincinnati, Seattle only put up 17 points on offense. They got 7 of their points from a defensive touchdown. Here, they'll take on a Carolina Panthers defense that is elite. Luke Kuechly is back for Carolina, and that is huge for this team. Carolina is very good at stopping the run to start with, and with Kuechly they'll be even better.

Seattle has no rhythm in the passing game. The Seahawks have to run it to be successful, but Marshawn Lynch is still banged up. Lynch will likely play here, but he is less than 100 percent, and he's up against a great defense.

Cam Newton has been very good so far this year, but Carolina hasn't played a defense even close to as good as the Seahawks. I think Seattle shuts down the Panthers running game here and forces them to beat them through the air, which I don't think they can do. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Denver Broncos are a team I've looked to play the under with as much as possible, and I'm going to keep doing it here. Denver's defense is arguably the best in the NFL. They have been solid against the run and spectacularly against the pass. Cleveland's offensive line should have a lot of trouble with this Denver defensive front. 

Peyton Manning hasn't been sharp at all this year, and the Browns secondary is pretty good even without Joe Haden in the lineup. Another very important factor for this game is the weather. The temperature is expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of some sprinkles during the game and a 10 to 15 mph wind. That isn't good weather for the offenses at all.

Look for a close game where field goals are more common than touchdowns. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs both have strong defenses. Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater are both what I consider to be game managers. Adrian Peterson is obviously a game breaker for the Vikings, but the Chiefs are without their game breaker in Jamaal Charles.

Both of these teams run the football a lot, so we'll see a lot of running clock in this game. The defenses are likely to dare the quarterbacks to beat them, and I don't think it will happen very often. Without Charles, the Chiefs defense becomes one of the worst in the NFL. 

The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in October. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Pac 12 Total* The Arizona Wildcats are playing at the second fastest tempo of any team in the country. Who's the fastest? The Baylor Bears. Anu Solomon is back and healthy, and with he and Wilson in the backfield Arizona is going to be able to score a lot against Colorado. The Buffaloes defense isn't good, and they have been worn down in the second half in several contests. The Colorado offense should get a lot more scoring opportunities than they normally do. Arizona's defense is badly banged up, and their linebackers aren't good at all without Wright and Ippolito. Colorado also plays at a fast tempo, and other than last week, Arizona's defense has been getting shredded by everyone. I think this gets into the 70's. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Florida Gators season took a big hit when Will Grier was suspended for a year after testing positive for PED's. While the Florida offense will likely look more vanilla this weekend, it is important to remember that Florida's defense is elite. LSU has absolutely no passing game right now. In a recent game, LSU completed 4 out of 14 passes against lowly Eastern Michigan. LSU is going to have to run it nearly every down here. While Leonard Fournette is a beast, this Florida defense is good and they'll be stacking the box up every time. 

On the other side, LSU's defense hasn't been quite as good so far this year as expected, but they should bring their best effort in this one. Florida's Treon Harris isn't a particularly good passer, and LSU has a great secondary. Florida is likely to be one-dimensional as well.

With a running clock throughout the game and two offenses that have very little passing game, I expected a lower total than this. I like this value. Take the under. 

*4 Star Big 12 Total* The Kansas State Wildcats offense has been a lot better than expected so far this year. They have a passing game that has seen quite a bit of success in recent weeks. Kansas State is a top ten ranked offense by advanced metrics. Oklahoma's air raid attack has been very successful this year except for their last game, a loss against Texas. Kansas State's defense is banged up, and they aren't as talented as they have been in recent years. Even in the past couple years when Oklahoma wasn't playing an uptempo offensive style, the game between these two teams has finished at 72 and 61 points. This one should be a close one all the way, and the chance of overtime is another benefit to the over. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Michigan State/Michigan MONEY* The Michigan Wolverines defense hasn't allowed a single point in their last three games. They have allowed a grand total of 14 points in their last five games! This defense is playing better than anyone else in the nation, and it isn't even close. Michigan State's defense is still solid, and their defensive line has a huge advantage over Michigan's offensive line. Look for the Spartans to get in the Wolverines backfield a lot in this game.

As good as Michigan's defense is, I believe their offense still has a lot to prove. Jake Rudock is nothing more than a game manager. Michigan State is going to try to make him beat them through the air. Connor Cook doesn't have enough weapons around him on offense this year. 

Both of these teams play very slowly. In fact, they are both in the bottom 20 in the nation in pace of play. A lot of running clock and solid defense throughout this one. Take the under. 

*4 Star MAC Totals TKO* The UMass Minutemen rank in the top ten in the nation in terms of pace of play. UMass is going to get snaps off quickly and look to put up a big number. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has a nice group of receivers led by Tajae Sharpe. UMass has an offense that should be able to score quite a few on almost every defense in the MAC. The UMass defense is one of the worst in the country. Kent State has struggled on offense this year, but they should look better in this one against a bad defense. Kent State is moving quicker on offense than last year as well. Take the over in this contest. 

*3 Star CFB Total VALUE* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have a hard nosed team that battles on every down. They aren't the most talented team, but they'll work as hard as anyone. Nebraska has had several really tough losses so far this year. The Cornhuskers don't seem a like team that comes in with much confidence. Minnesota's offense hasn't been able to do much at all against quality opponents this year, and Nebraska should slow them down. On the other hand though, I see Minnesota's defense doing a good job slowing down Nebraska's mediocre offense as well. This line has been bet up during the week, which gave us enough value to play this one. Take the under. 

*3 Star Alabama/Texas A&M Totals CASH* The Texas A&M defense has been a lot better this year, but they still aren't an elite unit. Texas A&M's defense is extremely aggressive with blitz packages, and I have to think that Alabama is going to be ready with some screen passes and quick slants to beat that blitz. Coker has been playing better of late, and Alabama's running game is good. On the other side, Texas A&M has a tremendous amount of skill position talent. The Aggies receivers hold a big advantage over Alabama's defensive backs. I see Texas A&M putting up a real fight in this one, and I think they can create a bunch of big plays on this Crimson Tide secondary. A back and forth game. Take the over. 

*3 Star Big 10 Total Takedown* The Northwestern Wildcats have been a terrific under team for a long time now. Northwestern was absolutely crushed by Michigan last week, but the Wildcats should bounce back with a much better effort in this one. Pat Fitzgerald's defense is very good, and Iowa's offense isn't going to be able to run it down their throat all game long like they have with other opponents recently. These two teams are both stronger on the defensive end than they are on offense. 

The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The under is 23-6 in Northwestern's last 29 home games. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* The South Florida Bulls and the UConn Huskies have a lot in common. Both teams have an offense that has struggled the majority of the year. USF's offense looked good last week against Syracuse and UConn's offense looked good last week against UCF. I think those performances last week got us some extra value on the under in this one. Both UCF and Syracuse are bad defensively right now, so these two offenses were able to take advantage. They'll face a much better defense here.

In addition, both of these teams play very slowly. They run the ball a lot and use up the play clock in between snaps. This can really shorten a game, and I look for this when looking to play an under. In the past 5 years, these teams have played five times and none of the games have finished with a total higher than 35 points. My number for this game was 38, which is much lower than this posted total.

The under is 3-0-1 in USF's last 4 after an ATS win. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground last game. The under is 5-0 in UConn's last 5 after allowing 20 points or less. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 24-0 angle. Take the under big! TOP Play of the Week.

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The San Francisco 49ers defense looked really bad at Pittsburgh in week two. Still, remember that was an awful spot for the 49ers after a late Monday night game and then playing in the Eastern time zone with an early start time on Sunday. Other than that game, the 49ers defense has been a little better than league average. The Niners defense should be able to at least slow down the Giants in this one.

Colin Kaepernick has been awful this year, and San Francisco really needs to be able to run the ball to be able to be successful on offense. Who is the number one rushing defense in the NFL? The New York Giants. The Giants are allowing less than 70 yards per game on the ground. Look for the Giants defense to do a good job slowing down the Niners rushing attack. That means Kaepernick has to beat them with his arm. I don't think that will happen.

The under is 21-8-2 in the 49ers last 31 games on turf. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The BYU Cougars and East Carolina Pirates both play very quickly. That means we will see a lot of snaps in this one. While East Carolina's defense isn't as bad as it was a few years ago, it still isn't very good. BYU used to have a dominating defense, but they are only average on defense now. Tanner Mangum has been great in the BYU offense. East Carolina has a balanced attack and they have gotten good quarterback play this year as well. I think this game gets into the 60's.

The over is 4-0 in ECU's last 4. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. an independent team. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more of total offense. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game where I believe Louisiana Tech's physical defense can slow down UTSA's offense. Neither team plays very fast, so this is a pretty high total in these circumstances. This line has moved down throughout the week and I had this number at 56, so at the current price I would have passed on this one. Take the under if this line is 58 points or higher. Thank you. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Wildcats get Anu Solomon back this weekend, and that will make a huge difference for the offense. Solomon is a great young quarterback and paired with Arizona's strong running game, he makes this offense tremendous. Oregon State has no answer for the Arizona offense. Scooby Wright is one of the nation's best defensive players, but he's out of the lineup for Arizona. The team's second best linebacker is also out of the lineup. Seth Collins is quickly improving in the Oregon State offense. Arizona's defense has looked really bad in recent weeks.

The over is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by 20 points or more. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wisconsin/Nebraska Total DOMINATION* The Wisconsin Badgers offense is a mess right now. Wisconsin doesn't quite have the offensive line they have had in recent years. They had one star at running back in Corey Clement, but he is out with an injury. The Badgers depth in the backfield is far weaker than it has been in the past. Nebraska's defense is good enough to load the box and force Joel Stave to beat them. Stave isn't good, and Alex Erickson is currently listed as doubtful. Erickson is the team's only playmaker at wide receiver. The Wisconsin defense is tremendous and I don't see Nebraska scoring too many here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play CFB Total DOMINATION* The Boston College Eagles have a tremendous defense this year. They are ranked in the top five in the nation in every major defensive category. Boston College had a bad offense to start with, and now they are playing without their starting quarterback as well as their starting running back. Wake Forest is developing into a very nice defense under the leadership of Dave Clawson. Wake Forest still has a bunch of problems on offense. Here is two teams that are light years better on defense than offense. This is certainly a low number, but I think this is a very sloppy game that stays under.

The under is 5-0 in Boston College's last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The under is 11-1 in Wake Forest's last 12 October games. A 25-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Light up the scoreboard in a big way for this one. Two of the top ten fastest paced teams in the country meet here, and both of these quarterbacks should have a huge game. Matt Johnson and Blake Frohnpafel both have a lot of playmakers to work with, and both of these defenses are just awful. In last year's meeting Bowling Green won 47-42. The Falcons had 668 yards of offense and UMass had 638! That's truly amazing,  and I think we'll see something similar in this game. *Note- this line has moved up since I selected it. I would currently play it for a 3 star play. Thank you.* 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense racked up more than 700 yards in a loss to Middle Tennessee State last week. Western Kentucky's offense is led by senior quarterback Brandon Doughty. Doughty is the type of guy who spreads the ball around and gets rid of it quickly. They play an uptempo style and they'll keep the game moving here. MTSU has gotten great quarterback play from Stockstill as well, and this Western Kentucky defense still isn't good. *Note- this line has moved up since I selected this one earlier in the week. I would currently play this for 3 stars instead of 4. Thank you.*

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The UTEP Miners are an under team in my book right now. Aaron Jones was a great running back for the team, but he's out with an injury. They are also without their starting quaterback. FIU doesn't have much of an offense, but they do have a solid defense. I don't expect to see UTEP scoring much here. Also important in this one is the fact that both teams like to use a lot of play clock between snaps. A conservative game plan as well as some solid defense and bad offense makes this a big play on the under. *Note- this line has moved down since I selected it early in the week. At anything less than 45.5 would play for 4 stars, and 44.5 or lower I would play for 3 stars. Thank you. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday's Best Bet* The Denver Broncos are not the same team they have been in the past. Denver is a defensive juggernaut this year. This team is stacked with talent on the defensive side of the ball. They can get after the quarterback as well as anyone in the league, and they have a good amount of run stuffers as well. Minnesota's defense is a unit I believe will continue to improve. Mike Zimmer is a great defensive mind, and I don't see his teams having too much trouble on defense.

Peyton Manning is clearly regressing at this point in his career and Teddy Bridgewater has struggled in the past when pressured. I think both quarterbacks will be under pressure in this one. Denver is no longer the fast paced offense they used to be, and Minnesota is going to run the football a lot here.

The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or more last game. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. A 13-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* I'll admit that Andrew Luck now being listed as questionable is certainly a concern here. He was listed as probable when I initially made this selection. I still do believe it's more likely that he will play. The positive for the Colts is they do have a solid backup compared to some other teams in the league. Additionally, this Jacksonville defense isn't good, and they'll give up a lot of points often this year. On the other hand, I believe the Jacksonville offense is much better than it has been in previous years. Yeldon gives them a playmaker at running back and Blake Bortles is progressing well at the quarterback spot. Both of these teams can play with tempo as well. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Under the Radar Total* The UTEP Miners lost both their starting quarterback and running. UTSA returned 3 starters from last year's offense. These are two offenses in a lot of trouble right now. UTEP had a nice blueprint for winning games last year, and Sean Kugler has done a great job with this team. The problem is the blueprint was run the ball early and often with Aaron Jones, their running back, and now he is out for the year. No one else on the team is even close to as talented as him. UTEP will still try to run the ball, but they aren't likely to be nearly as successful. Both of these teams take a lot of time between plays which is important in a game with a relatively high total. Take the under. *Note this line has moved down a bit during the week. I would play this down to 56 points for 3 stars. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Cal Bears offense is excellent with Jared Goff under center. Sonny Dykes' system is perfect for a guy like Goff who can get rid of the ball quickly and spread the ball around to a bunch of different receivers. Cal ranks in the top five in the nation in terms of pace. Washington State isn't the type of team that will slow a game down. Mike Leach's offense is all about airing it out and playing with pace. Washington State's defense is among the worst in the nation among Power 5 conference teams (it may be the worst). When these two met last year I had the over and the game finished 60-59. While it's hard to expect that high of a game, I do think this sails over. I have this line at 79 points and I think that is being conservative. Big play for me here. Take the over big! *Note- This line has moved since I played it early in the week. I would play this for 5 stars up to 73 points and 4 stars up to 76. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense is tremendous. Brandon Doughty is definitely one of the best quarterbacks in the country. It helps him that he has a tremendous deep group of receivers as well. The Rice defense has been exposed all season long. Last week they gave up 70 points to Baylor. Now, I'm not going to pretend that Western Kentucky has an offense like Baylor's, but it is very good. Rice will move the ball and score a lot too though. The Owls have a good veteran quarterback and they are up against a Western Kentucky defense that has been horrible in each of the past two seasons. 

The over is 4-0 in W Kentucky's last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in Rice's last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in Rice's last 4 games after giving up 450 yards or more. The over is 8-1 in W Kentucky's last 9 after giving up 280 yards or more through the air. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Total Value* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have improved this year. Dave Clawson is a good coach, he just doesn't have much talent to work with in Winston Salem. Wake Forest will play hard though. The under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games. This is a team that can be very tough to score on, but Wake Forest has a very bad offense. Florida State's defense was disappointing last year, but they have been very good this season. The hurricane will be felt here with winds and heavy rain throughout the day. That should make for a very conservative game plan for both teams. Look for a lot of running the ball which keeps the clock ticking. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB MAC Total* The Kent State Golden Flashes have a terrible offense and a decent defense. Miami is just a bad team overall. Miami is playing three different quarterbacks, and none of them have been any good. The weather is going to be a problem in this game with 20 mph winds and rain expected at gametime. That means more running from two teams who aren't good at running the ball. Miami won't score many points on anyone on the road this year, and Kent State's offense isn't good enough to expect a big win from them. Low scoring games have been the norm in this series. Take the under. 

*The line has dropped here due to the weather, but at 45 points or higher I'd still take this for 4 stars. Below that, I make it a 3 star play. Thank you.*

*4 Star NCAA FB Big 10 Total* Here we have a battle between two teams who play very similar styles of football. They both like to run the football and win with time of possession and defense. Wisconsin's defense has been great since they were a little shaky in week one against Alabama. Iowa's defense has been very solid as well. Without Corey Clement, the Wisconsin running game certainly isn't as strong as it has been in the past. Joel Stave isn't a good quarterback, and Iowa will try to make him beat them with his arm. Iowa is unlikely to have much offensive success here against a Wisconsin defense that always play very well at home. Both teams play slowly, so we'll slow a lot of long and slow drives. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Virginia Tech Hokies defense should be very solid this year. Kendall Fuller going down with an injury definitely hurt them, but the Hokies still have a good secondary. Pittsburgh is unlikely to be able to consistently move it through the air here. Pittsburgh's defense will be much better this year with Pat Narduzzi as their head coach.

Another big reason to like this play is the weather. With a hurricane not far away, wind and heavy rain is expected on Saturday afternoon in this game. Two teams that are quite conservative to start with will likely be running the football even more here. An ugly low scoring game is what I see for this contest. Take the under. 

*This line has dropped big in the last couple days due to bad weather in the area. I would play this for 3 stars at the current level. Thank you.*

*3 Star SEC Total* The Missouri Tigers offense has been a total disaster this year. On the other hand, Missouri still has a good defense. The Tigers will be playing with a new quarterback in this one as Mauk is suspended for the game. South Carolina has a freshman quarterback who has proven nothing playing on the road in a difficult environment here. Missouri's pass rush should make him very uncomfortable. There's no doubt that both offenses are worse than they have been in the past few years. Even in the last three years though, the total at the end of regulation was 41, 34, and 41 points. I don't think either team finds the end zone much here. Take the under.