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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-07-20	Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 54.5		21-38	Loss	-107	14 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines defense was a disappointment last week against Michigan State. I think they'll play better here. Michigan has a strong defensive line. They are up against an Indiana team that is really struggling on the offensive front. Penix isn't a bad quarterback for Indiana, but he hasn't had much time to throw. Stevie Scott hasn't had anywhere to run either. Michigan's offensive line is a major weakness this year too, and Indiana has a solid defensive front seven. I don't know that Michigan has the tools to make Indiana pay for their relative weakness in the secondary. Both of these teams have struggled with getting big plays offensively in recent years. These are two teams with defensive-minded head coaches. I think this one should be around 51 so I'll take the value here. Take the under.
11-01-20	Saints v. Bears UNDER 45.5		26-23	Loss	-108	125 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears have been great at turning games into low scoring contests. Even in an NFL environment where there have been a lot of high scoring games this year, Chicago has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 39 points or fewer. The New Orleans offense ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per play. New Orleans ranks 11th in yards per play allowed, but they have faced the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL so far this year. The Chicago offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play. They don't have a good option at quarterback. This offense has been a mess all year long. These two teams rank 25th and 27th in the NFL in explosive plays. These are teams who are far more likely to gradually move the ball down the field than do it in big chunks. The weather is calling for winds of 12 or 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph for this game. That helps the under as well. Take the under.
11-01-20	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43		21-24	Loss	-106	107 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Four of the Patriots six games have finished at 39 points or fewer so far this year. The Patriots offense has all sorts of problems right now. The offensive line is badly banged up. Cam Newton isn't playing well and they don't have another good option to turn to. The Patriots have to be able to run the ball to move it consistently, but opponents are daring them to throw it and loading up the box. The Bills will do the same. Buffalo's offense is shorthanded right now as well. Buffalo has to be able to throw to move the ball consistently, because this running game of Buffalo isn't good. The New England secondary is a relative strength too. The weather here should be a problem. Some showers could be in the area, but the big deal here is the wind. Sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will make both teams far more conservative here. Take the under.
11-01-20	Raiders v. Browns UNDER 52		16-6	Win	100	83 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders meet on Sunday in Cleveland. The story here will be the weather. The chance of rain is about 50% throughout this game, but that isn't the problem here for scoring. The problem is the huge amount of wind. The current average of forecasts I use (4 different weather sites) is 26 mph sustained winds with gusts of 43 mph. That would become one of the windiest games we have seen in a long time. We have seen under money come in on this game already, and I think it continues to come in as we get closer to game time. This kind of wind changes the game plan for both teams. Baker Mayfield likes to throw the ball downfield, but he is without Odell Beckham Jr. here and it will be extremely hard to throw in this kind of wind. It is important to note that the wind is expected to be blowing from side to side in the stadium, and that makes it even tougher for quarterbacks. The Raiders passing attack has really impressed me this year, but it isn't likely to be nearly as successful as normal in these conditions. The Raiders offensive line has struggled in run blocking. Take the under here.
10-31-20	Nevada v. UNLV OVER 57		37-19	Loss	-110	129 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I really like Carson Strong in the air raid offense of Nevada. Nevada's passing attack couldn't be stopped against a Wyoming defense that is clearly better than this UNLV defense. UNLV allowed 5.67 yards per play against San Diego State offense that has major problems. UNLV should improve some offensively, and I think they'll have to pick up their pace as they are likely playing from behind in this game. The Rebels have several options at quarterback this season. I had this one in the low 60's. Take the over.
10-31-20	Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 57		31-42	Loss	-105	126 h 34 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I've been really impressed by the Arkansas secondary so far this year. They have faced some good passing attacks and really shut them down. Their performance against Ole Miss was particularly impressive. Barry Odom is doing a great job with this defense. Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are inconsistent on offense. I see this being a team that can look great on some days and terrible on others. Arkansas should give them enough looks that frustrate them and make them less efficient than normal. Arkansas on offense has only 11 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Razorbacks don't get big chunks, and Texas A&M is a well-coached defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under.
10-31-20	Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59		41-34	Loss	-109	26 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both significantly better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They returned a lot of talent defensively, and Texas upgraded at the defensive coordinator spot. Oklahoma State is a run heavy team, so the clock should keep ticking on a lot of their offensive plays. Texas will give up some yards here, but they have been solid at not giving up big rushing plays. Texas' offensive line hasn't held up well against the best defensive lines they have played this year. I think this Oklahoma State defensive front gets in the backfield quite a bit in this contest. The weather here calls for winds of 15-17 mph which is a bit of a help for the under as well. The recent high scores between these two has given us some value on the under. Take the under here.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa OVER 45		21-20	Loss	-115	122 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Over With a new offensive coordinator this year, Northwestern is playing much quicker. The Wildcats offense looked great against Maryland in game one. They averaged 6.47 yards per play in that contest. Iowa is clearly better on defense than Maryland, but Iowa's defense is definitely down from a couple years ago. Iowa still has enough weapons on offense to move the ball at least some of the time in this game. The posted total was set so low that with the pace Northwestern is playing at, I had to back the over here. Take the over.
10-31-20	Indiana v. Rutgers UNDER 53.5		37-21	Loss	-110	18 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Rutgers Scarlet Knights only scored a bunch of points on Michigan State because Michigan State turned the ball over 7 times! Rutgers only managed 3.9 yards per play on offense. The Scarlet Knights will be improved on offense from a year ago (it would be hard not to be), but this offense isn't good. Rutgers will play at a relatively slow pace this year, and I would expect a lot of running plays. That plays into the strength of the Indiana defense, which is their front seven. Indiana has gotten so much better against the run in the last few years under Tom Allen. Indiana wasn't good offensively against Penn State. They averaged only 3.4 yards per play on offense. Again, it was Penn State's miscues that led to easier scores for Indiana. The Hoosiers will look quite a bit better on offense here, but their offensive line isn't very good. I think Penix and the skill position players will make some nice plays, but I don't think they totally dominate this Rutgers defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under.
10-31-20	Central Florida v. Houston OVER 76.5		44-21	Loss	-109	120 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UCF Knights games have been extremely high scoring this year. In fact, three of their five games have finished with 79 points or more. The Knights other two games finished with 60 and 70 points. UCF ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are averaging a whopping 7.05 yards per play. Houston's defense has been terrible against the pass, and UCF has plenty of weapons in the passing game. BYU put up 43 points on Houston, and BYU doesn't play at a quick pace. The UCF defense has disappointed this year. They have allowed 34 points or more in their last three games. Houston's weapons at skill positions on offense are very solid. Take the over.
10-29-20	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 51.5		17-24	Win	100	40 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Georgia Southern Eagles play at an extremely slow pace. They are using nearly 33 seconds between plays, which would have ranked them as the slowest pace team in the nation last season. This is an extremely slow paced team that runs the football nearly 75% of the time. There will be a lot of running clock in this one. South Alabama is improved on offense, but they have played some really weak defense and they are due for some regression. They are converting on 49.32% of third down conversion attempts and that can't continue for a team that is getting behind the chains with as many big negative plays as they are right now. They are improved on offense, but they aren't this much better. South Alabama is also slower than the average team by quite a bit in terms of tempo. Some wind is expected for this one in Statesboro on Thursday night. Sustained winds of about 16 mph are a boost to the under. This midweek games have trended under through the years in college football. I see value on the under here. Take the under.
10-26-20	Bears v. Rams UNDER 45		10-24	Win	100	67 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The last two years these two teams have met and the final scores were 15-6 and 17-7. That certainly isn't the only reason I'm betting the under here, but it is a good start. The Chicago Bears offense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago's offensive line is questionable, and the Rams do bring a lot of pressure. Look for the LA defensive line led by Aaron Donald to be in the backfield quite a bit in this one. Nick Foles hasn't been terrible, but he has been a game manager. They don't take a lot of shots downfield. Chicago moves pretty slowly, and has had to settle for field goals often in the red zone. The Rams offense is good, but they have played a lot of weaker defenses this year. That won't be the case in this one. Chicago has the best secondary in the league, and we've seen this secondary give Jared Goff a lot of trouble the last two seasons. Robert Woods is questionable here with an injury, and if he doesn't play or isn't 100 percent that slows this Rams offense down. This field has seen a bunch of low scoring games played on it. The referee crew in this one has also been very good to under bettors. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand here. Take the under.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots UNDER 45.5		33-6	Win	100	122 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots offense has been a mess of late. Their offensive line is badly banged up now, and they can't keep the running game going as they were earlier in the season. New England has averaged only 5.3 yards per play in their last three contests. The Patriots had high scoring games against the Seahawks and Raiders, but those two teams have some of the highest scoring games of anyone in the NFL. The Patriots other three games have all finished at 36 points or lower. The 49ers have been playing slower of late. San Francisco ranks 27th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers are trying to lean heavily on their running game. New England is good at not allowing big plays, so I think the 49ers drives will take quite a while in this one. New England runs the ball at the third highest rate as a percentage of plays. They also rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in their last three contests. Take the under here.
10-25-20	Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 47.5		43-16	Loss	-110	101 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The two times these teams met last year the final scores were 23-3 and 30-6. The Chiefs defense is better than most people realize. Kansas City is able to pressure the quarterback and they have a good pass defense. The Broncos lack a strong running game to be able to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs. The Denver offense is a mess. The Broncos may have won last weekend, but it was because of the defense and not the offense. The Denver defense is very strong on the defensive line. Denver doesn't allow many big plays. The other factor here is the weather. Snow is in the forecast for this game. Snow likely with wind as well. When you combine those two, it is a clear help for the under. I think this number drops through the week with the weather, and I like the chances of this being a lower scoring contest. Take the under.
10-24-20	Wyoming v. Nevada OVER 48	Top	34-37	Win	100	125 h 12 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over Nevada returns 10 starters on the offensive end this year. They will run the air raid with Mumme as their offensive coordinator. With a second year quarterback who looked good as a freshman, I expect their offensive numbers to be much better this season. Wyoming has two solid quarterback options in Chambers and Williams. The Wyoming offensive line is probably the best offensive line in the Mountain West. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball on nearly everyone in this conference. Wyoming's defense should be way down from a year ago, and that is the primary reason I think this total is several points too low. With more scoring in general this year, this is a very low posted total. I think both teams get into the mid 20's here at least. Take the over. TOP Rated play.
10-24-20	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 64	Top	16-27	Win	100	122 h 51 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under Texas has had several high scoring games that are very misleading. They went into 4 overtimes vs. Oklahoma, but both teams averaged less than 5 yards per play. They also had a bunch of special teams/defensive setups for scores against Texas Tech in a game that should have never been so high scoring. Baylor has a great defensive mind at head coach now and I think they can scheme their way to making Texas work hard. Also, Texas lost their top receiver due to injury. My number here is in the upper 50's. Take the under. TOP Rated play.
10-24-20	Auburn v. Ole Miss OVER 63.5		35-28	Loss	-109	118 h 19 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Ole Miss is one of the best over teams in the country right now. Lane Kiffin's team was slowed down by the windy weather, a bunch of turnovers, and a really good Arkansas secondary last weekend. That made this total low enough to bet the over. Auburn's offense was better than the final score would indicate against South Carolina. It was their turnovers that really stopped them. Auburn averaged 5.8 yards per play. They are up against a much weaker defense in Ole Miss this week. The Ole Miss offense is the best offense Auburn has faced so far this year. While Auburn doesn't have a bad defense, it is clearly much weaker than it was a year ago. Take the over here.
10-24-20	Temple v. Memphis OVER 69		29-41	Win	100	118 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Over These two teams both rank in the top 15 in the country so far this year in tempo. Temple's defense has been a strength in recent years, but they lost nearly everything they had from a year ago. Memphis is going to score a lot of points on nearly everyone in this conference with their skill position talent and the tempo they play at on a consistent basis. Temple should be able to throw the ball on this Memphis secondary, especially if they are playing from behind. While this total is set at a high level, I had this one a few points higher. Look for a lot of points in this contest. Take the over.
10-22-20	Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45		21-22	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia Eagles have been able to score points when they get down early and need to comeback in the fourth quarter, but in other spots, they have struggled offensively. Philadelphia is 26th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Carson Wentz isn't a bad quarterback, but he has been without an offensive line and many of the weapons around him all year. Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey are out for this one. Jack Driscoll is also out on the line. Lane Johnson is expected to try to play, but he is far less than 100 percent. New York put up a big number on Dallas' defense, but who hasn't? The Giants have averaged less than 14 points per game in their other five games this year. This New York offense is awful. Saquon Barkley is missed badly, and Daniel Jones has been very weak as a passer. The Eagles still have a strong defensive front seven, and I don't think the Giants can consistently move the ball through the air on many teams. The Giants defense has shown signs of life lately. They have been especially strong against the run. This is a divisional game that does mean a lot to the teams since the NFC East is wide open. Take the under.
10-18-20	Rams v. 49ers OVER 51		16-24	Loss	-114	88 h 10 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The San Francisco 49ers secondary is a mess right now. Miami put up 6.9 yards per play in a win over the 49ers last week. The Rams offense is a top ten offense in the NFL. I don't see the 49ers defense being able to stop the Rams passing attack. There are too many weapons for the Rams, and Sean McVay is good at scheming in a way to attack weaknesses. The Rams should put up a big number here. The 49ers are starting to get healthier on offense. Jimmy G was put in last week when he had little practice, and some of the weapons around him were missing. I think the 49ers offense can be much better this week. The Rams had a couple defensive players banged up in their win at Washington last week, and this is a Rams defense that is very thin at multiple positions. The Rams defense isn't nearly as good as they look on paper. They have faced a very weak slate of offenses. In fact, if you look at the offenses these two defenses have faced so far this year, they rank as the 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest slate of offenses according to Football Outsiders. These defenses are worse than they appear. I see a back and forth game here. Take the over.
10-18-20	Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5		10-38	Loss	-110	43 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous so far this year. They are averaging 38 points per game thus far this season. Green Bay hasn't had Devante Adams for their last couple games, and he is their best weapon on offense. I don't think Tampa Bay has anyone who can slow Adams down on the outside. Aaron Rodgers has been in great form so far this season. He is willing to take a lot of deep chances, and in past seasons this Tampa secondary has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Tampa Bay's offense has been up against some very solid defenses so far this season. The Packers defense will be the worst defense they have faced so far this year. Tampa Bay's wide receivers are finally getting healthy, and this is one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL. I think Tampa will be able to move the ball consistently here too. Jerome Boger's crew is the referee crew for this game. The over is 106-74 (58.9%) in his games. They are known for their consistent pass interference calls on the defense. This is a high total, but I think both teams move the ball and cash in on big plays throughout. Take the over.
10-17-20	North Texas v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 66		52-35	Win	100	124 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't particularly close. This team is absolutely flying up and down the field. Their offense is solid. They haven't scored in the red zone at the rate you would expect or they would have scored even more points. That should improve over time. North Texas' defense might be the worst in the country. They give up big gainers constantly. MTSU has been inconsistent on offense this year, but against this North Texas defense they should be able to move the ball and score easily. MTSU's defense is very weak against the run, and that is the strength of the North Texas offense. I made this total in the low 70's, so I like the value here. Take the over.
10-17-20	Virginia v. Wake Forest OVER 57.5		23-40	Win	100	25 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Wake Forest plays extremely fast. They want their game to be a shootout, and they have been pretty good at forcing those shootouts. Wake Forest has a good quarterback in Hartman and they have enough skill position players to give Virginia some trouble. The Cavs secondary isn't what it was a couple years ago. Virginia's starting quarterback is questionable here, and we may well see the backup here. That is a big reason why this total has moved down. I wouldn't have bet this game over the total at the opening line, but after the substantial drop this one is too good of a price for me to pass up. Virginia has sped up their pace of play this year. We have two teams ranked in the top 14 in tempo out of all the teams playing thus far this season. We have seen a lot of higher scoring games in college football this year, and a number this low in a Wake Forest game is an over bet for me unless they are playing an elite defense. They aren't in this one. Take the over.
10-17-20	Duke v. NC State OVER 59		20-31	Loss	-108	24 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Duke is playing 2.5 seconds faster between snaps than they were a year ago. We have seen a couple high scoring games from the Blue Devils in their last two contests. I think we will see another one here. Chase Brice is being more aggressive with the football. That can be good for the over because he throws pick sixes, and it can be good because Duke is getting more big plays than they did a year ago. These teams have given up 23 and 24 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. Both offenses rank in the top ten in explosive plays. We should see tempo and plenty of big gainers. The weather looks good in this one, and I had this one projected several points higher. Take the over.
10-17-20	Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 64		7-12	Win	100	50 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather forecast here plays a large role in me taking the under. Sustained winds of 22 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are in the forecast for South Bend. That kind of weather really changes the game, and makes both offenses more predictable. In the long run, that kind of weather has been great for under bettors. Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo, so we shouldn't see too many possessions here. The Louisville defense has been bad this year, and I do think Notre Dame will score a decent amount of points here. Notre Dame's defense is pretty good, and Louisville should be more one dimensional than normal here. Take the under.
10-17-20	Liberty v. Syracuse OVER 53.5		38-21	Win	100	22 h 33 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Liberty Flames have a very good quarterback in Malik Willis. Willis is an excellent runner who can really put pressure on a defense with his dual threat abilities. The Syracuse defense wasn't very good to start with, and now they are without star safety Andre Cisco. Syracuse gave up more than 600 yards last week against Duke. I think Liberty will move the ball quite a bit here. Liberty's defensive numbers look pretty good this year, but you have to consider who they have played against. The Flames have faced Western Kentucky, FIU, UL Monroe, and an FCS team. Those are terrible offensive teams. Syracuse is bad offensively as well, but they have much higher recruited talent than any of those other teams. They also play at a very fast tempo. This is a game played inside and with a total set at a low level. Given the pace these two teams play at, I like the value on the over. Take the over.
10-11-20	Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 56		40-32	Loss	-110	36 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs have a tremendous offense. They are more than capable of putting up a big number at any time. Still, Andy Reid's teams have been great under bets when they are big favorites. Why? Reid is often conservative after getting a lead. His teams grab a lead and then use the clock and move on to play another week. Kansas City plays Buffalo in their next contest after this as well, and that will be a huge game for playoff seeding with the Bills sitting at unbeaten so far this year. Las Vegas has a good running game, and I do think they'll get their yards on the ground in this game. The Raiders don't have a good downfield passing game though. The Chiefs actually rank #1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA so far this year. They now add in Breeland (suspended the first four weeks). This Chiefs secondary is solid. There is wind of 12-15 mph expected here and while that isn't major, that does help the under a bit. The biggest reason I'll bet this game is this system- when Andy Reid's team is at home and favored by 6 or more the under is a whopping 41-19 in the last 60 contests. When the total is 44.5 or higher, the under is 24-7. Take the under.
10-10-20	Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 59.5		2-24	Win	100	124 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats are going to do a lot of running the football this year. They ran all over Ole Miss, but the Mississippi State defense should be a tougher task. Kentucky will still get a lot of yards. I do expect it to take them time though. Look for Kentucky to try to keep the ball away from Mike Leach's air raid offense by controlling the time of possession here. Mississippi State has allowed only 1.91 yards per carry so far this year. The offense looked amazing against LSU, but it stumbled badly against Arkansas. The Kentucky defense is a veteran group and with an 0-2 record coming into this one, we should get a strong effort from Kentucky. Take the under here.
10-10-20	Kansas State v. TCU UNDER 55.5		21-14	Win	100	121 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The highest total in a game between these two teams in the last four years has been a combined score of 41 points. TCU's defense hasn't looked good in the first two games of the season, but Patterson is a defensive-minded coach and this group has a lot of talent. I would expect much better results going forward. Kansas State has a QB injury with Skylar Thompson questionable here. Even if he does play I like this under. The Wildcats play very slowly and they won't change that style no matter what. TCU's offense isn't very efficient, and Kansas State's isn't either. Take the under.
10-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Boston College UNDER 43.5		30-31	Loss	-110	26 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Boston College Eagles host the Pitt Panthers on Saturday afternoon. I've really been impressed with this Boston College defense under new coach Jeff Hafley. He was a defensive coordinator at Ohio State and did a great job with that Buckeyes defense. He is already helping this Eagles defense immensely. Pitt has a top five defense in the country. Rashad Weaver is one of the best pass rushers in the country. The Panthers rank 3rd in the nation in yards per carry allowed (1.98). The weather in this game should be helpful. Sustained winds of about 20 mph are in the forecast with gusts to 25 or 30 mph. That is enough to change the game, especially since the winds are forecast to be blowing side to side in the stadium rather than at the back of either team. Both of these teams prefer to throw rather than run, but the weather will make it more difficult. Both teams have really struggled to get any running game going. I expect a defensive battle here. Take the under.
10-10-20	Central Arkansas v. Arkansas State UNDER 66		27-50	Loss	-110	75 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This game is set for Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The weather forecast for here looks very bleak. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There is also a 50% chance of rain through the day. Arkansas State doesn't have a good defense, but they are stepping down in class to play Central Arkansas instead of Memphis, Kansas State, or a good Coastal Carolina offense. Arkansas State is more than a two touchdown favorite here. The Red Wolves and the Bears of Central Arkansas are very likely to play more conservatively with this kind of weather. It would be very hard to throw the football very often with winds blowing side to side at 20-35 mph here. The run defenses aren't very good, but if they know what is coming it should help quite a bit. Totals set this high in weather games have been great under bets over the years. Take the under here.
10-10-20	UL-Monroe v. Liberty OVER 58		7-40	Loss	-110	116 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Liberty Flames are expected to have Malik Willis back for this one. He is a star quarterback who can do it all. ULM's defense has already allowed 21 plays of 20 yards or more, and Liberty will get a lot of big gainers in this one as well. Liberty pushes the tempo, and they'll be playing in the lead here. ULM will have no choice but to pick up the pace. ULM showed some offensive strength finally last weekend against a decent Georgia Southern defense. Liberty is very weak defensively, and ULM should be able to produce enough offensively here, especially since they should get some garbage time points. Take the over.
10-10-20	Virginia Tech v. North Carolina OVER 57		45-56	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Carolina Tar Heels offense hasn't been very good so far this year, but this offense has too much talent to struggle all season. Sam Howell is one of the better quarterbacks in the nation. He has a good offensive line and very good receivers around him as well. Virginia Tech's running game has really impressed me so far this year. The Hokies are averaging a whopping 7.01 ypc through their first two games. I certainly don't expect anything like that in this game, but the Hokies offensive line has been great in run blocking. North Carolina's defense hasn't been tested by a team that has any semblance of a running game. There is some rain in the forecast for this one which has made the total go down a few points, but the projected wind is 4 mph. Rain without wind is a neutral for the total. There are numerous injuries and COVID related absences in the secondary for both teams. That could lead to some big plays for both teams. Hendon Hooker is expected to play for Virginia Tech here, and he is their top option at quarterback. Take the over.
10-08-20	Tulane v. Houston OVER 59		31-49	Win	100	77 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tulane Green Wave have played faster this year. They will still run the football early and often, but I think that will help them against a Houston Cougars defense that should be weak against the run this year. Tulane's uptempo run game should get yards in bunches here. Houston has yet to play a game, but Dana Holgorsen has talked about wanting to play quickly. The Cougars have improved weapons at the skill positions around Clayton Tune this season. Tulane has yet to play against a really good offense. I think the Tulane secondary can be beaten. These two put up 69 points last year. I had this number several points higher than the current posted total. Take the over.
10-04-20	Vikings v. Texans OVER 51.5		31-23	Win	100	155 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. The Minnesota Vikings had one terrible game offensively against the Indianapolis Colts. That was a fluke, and it turns out the Colts defense is very solid. In their other two games, the Vikings have averaged 7.5 yards per play (Titans) and 7.8 yards per play (Packers). The emergence of Jefferson as another very good weapon on the outside makes the Vikings passing game dangerous. Minnesota's defense is far worse than it was a couple short seasons a go. This Vikings secondary is among the worst in the NFL. They also have a very poor defensive line (especially without Hunter). Houston has played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far, and the Texans are going to score points against bad defenses. Here is a bad defense in the Vikings. Look for Watson and company to put up some big numbers. Take the over.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 42.5		31-38	Loss	-105	34 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tampa Bay Bucs defense ranks 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. The rushing defense is as good as you'll find in the NFL, and the secondary is quickly improving. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator and he is really making his mark on this unit. The LA Chargers haven't given up more than 23 points in a game so far this year (and that was KC scoring 23 in overtime against them). The Chargers secondary is very solid, and they have a strong pass rush. Tom Brady hasn't looked in sync yet, and Leonard Fournette is out for this game. Chris Godwin is also out at WR. The Chargers are without two starters on the offensive line. Tampa Bay's defensive front should dominate them here. Justin Herbert is making his first road start here. I expect him to struggle in this one. The weather calls for a 80% chance of rain and some winds of about 10-12 mph during this one as well, which helps the under. Take the under.
10-04-20	Seahawks v. Dolphins OVER 54.5		31-23	Loss	-110	12 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Seattle Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar are both out from the Seattle secondary for this one. Adams is the best player in this secondary, and that is a huge loss for a team that is already giving up a lot of big plays in the air. Three other guys in the Seattle secondary are questionable here. There are major injury issues in the Seattle secondary. Miami cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful here, and he would be a major loss as the Dolphins go against Russell Wilson and this fantastic Seattle passing attack. Seattle has been letting Russell Wilson air it out a lot more often this year, and I see no reason why they would stop here. The Dolphins weakness now is in the secondary and Seattle has clear matchup advantages there. Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of big plays for Miami, especially against a really weak Seattle secondary. Seattle is 30th in explosive play defense, so they have already been giving up bunch of big plays and now they are much more banged up. The weather initially looked questionable for this game, but the current forecast looks much better with a very small chance for rain and less wind (12 mph). Take the over.
10-03-20	Southern Miss v. North Texas OVER 71.5		41-31	Win	100	25 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the country in tempo so far this year, and it isn't very close. North Texas coach Seth Littrell took over the offense this year and he said they wanted to go fast. He wasn't kidding. North Texas has a good spread offense with the ability to run or throw. The Mean Green are averaging 7.16 yards per play this year (9th in the country so far). Southern Miss allowed 66 points in an embarrassing loss to Tulane last week. I'm not expecting that kind of number allowed here, but this Southern Miss defense is allowing all kinds of big plays. They have already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Southern Miss does have a good passing attack. I expect them to be able to move the ball against a North Texas defense that is one of the worst in the country. North Texas gave up 65 points to SMU. Southern Miss definitely isn't SMU, but the Golden Eagles should be able to throw it around here too. The pace should be there the whole way. Yes, this is a very high total, but my numbers put this game reaching into the upper 70's. Take the over.
10-03-20	Ole Miss v. Kentucky OVER 57.5		42-41	Win	100	120 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Ole Miss offense is going to play extremely fast under Lane Kiffin this year. Ole Miss gashed a really solid Florida defense this past weekend. They had 7 plays of 30 yards or more. Amazing. Kentucky has a pretty good defense, but I don't think they'll shut down Ole Miss either. The Rebels have a lot of playmakers at the skill positions on offense and they'll be put in a good position to succeed. Kentucky's offensive line is much better than the Ole Miss defensive front. I would expect Kentucky to have a much easier time moving the ball than they did last week against Auburn's defense. Take the over.
10-03-20	Texas Tech v. Kansas State UNDER 64		21-31	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats put up a big number last week, but that was largely due to Oklahoma's mistakes. Kansas State only had 10 first downs in that contest. Kansas State is playing at the third slowest pace of any team currently playing in college football. This team wants to run the ball and use up the clock. They should want to do that even more than normal here to keep Alan Bowman and this Texas Tech offense off the field. Texas Tech still plays quickly on offense, but they aren't quite as fast as they were a few years ago. The Red Raiders offense is far less efficient as well. They are only 23rd out of 72 teams in the country in yards per play on the year. Last week's game against Texas was misleading from a totals standpoint. Texas Tech only gained 5.8 yards per play and allowed just 5.3 yards per play against Texas. The last two years the meetings between these two teams have stayed well under this posted total. It isn't easy taking an under in a Texas Tech game, but I think Kansas State will control the tempo here. Take the under.
10-03-20	UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5		13-21	Loss	-110	18 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners have played much quicker this year than they did a year ago. UTSA averaged 25.79 seconds between snaps last year, but they are averaging only 22.35 seconds between snaps this year. UTSA also only averaged 5.06 yards per play last season, but they are at 5.86 yards per play this year. Their running game has had quite a bit of success in the early going. UAB is also playing a little more than a second quicker this year. The Blazers quarterback for this one is Bryson Lucero, who had a big game last week against UAB. I think he gives the team more big play ability through the air than Johnston does. UTSA has a very weak defense. They are unlikely to be able to slow down UAB here. While UAB does have a good pass defense, their run defense has been shaky this season. Look for UTSA to be able to break some big gainers in the running game. Take the over.
10-03-20	Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 55		21-27	Win	100	116 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I see West Virginia as an under team with their strong defensive front and weak offensive line. The Mountaineers don't push the tempo like most in the Big 12 do either. Baylor looks like they were great offensively against Kansas if you just look at the final score, but that was primarily special teams greatness against a terrible Kansas kick coverage team. Baylor's YPP was a weak 5.25 against a bad Kansas defense. Coach Aranda is obviously a defensive guy and Baylor should be pretty good on defense. The Mountaineers defense is one of the best in the Big 12. This one is several points too high. Take the under.
09-28-20	Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54		34-20	Push	0	19 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. Kansas City's defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play against the Chargers and 6.7 yards per play against the Texans. They have really struggled with mobile quarterbacks in their first two games. That isn't a good weakness to have when you are about to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Kansas City's offense hasn't been amazing so far this year, but we all know it is coming. The Chiefs have too much talent and they are certainly going to finish the season as a top 2 or 3 offense in the NFL. Baltimore gets more big plays in the running game than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs are weak in that regard. Additionally, the Chiefs are still shorthanded in the secondary without Breeland. I think the Ravens get the lead in this one, and that encourages more scoring here since KC can really play with pace and pile up the points when they are behind. Take the over here.
09-27-20	Lions v. Cardinals OVER 51.5		26-23	Loss	-110	164 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arizona Cardinals are playing extremely fast this year. Kyler Murray in the second year of Kingsbury's system will be very good. Hopkins gives him an elite wide receiver. They are likely to finish with the fastest pace in the NFL this season. Arizona moved the ball pretty well against San Francisco, and they moved it very well against a strong Washington defensive front. The Cardinals now take on a very weak Detroit Lions defense. Detroit has major problems in the secondary. Mitch Trubisky lit them up in the 4th quarter in week one. Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per play in their big win over Detroit. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to slow down Arizona here. Arizona hasn't been tested very much defensively this year. The Cardinals played a 49ers team with a bunch of injuries on offense in week one. They took on a Washington team that is just weak on offense in their second game. Look for lots of plays in this one and big plays for both sides in the passing game. Take the over.
09-27-20	Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 43		28-10	Win	100	47 h 51 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week The Denver Broncos have a lot of questions, but they are almost all on the offensive side. The Broncos defense still is very strong. Tampa Bay did win last week against Carolina, but they weren't all that good offensively. The Bucs are only averaging 5.3 yards per play this year (24th in the NFL). Denver's offense has been even worse. Denver is averaging only 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Broncos are now with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn't a big downgrade from Drew Lock, but Driskel is going to have a rough time here against a very strong Tampa Bay defense. I love the job Todd Bowles is doing with the Tampa Bay defense. They have been excellent at stopping the run in recent seasons, and that is still true, but they are much improved all around this year. I don't think the Broncos offensive line will perform well against them. Denver will try to play conservatively here, but I don't think they'll have much success. The weather is another real factor here. The forecast calls for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is plenty to change a game plan. Expect to see a lot of running and short passes. It will be harder to stretch the field. Take the under here.
09-27-20	Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46		23-23	Push	0	73 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Bengals defense has one sack so far this year. Without Carson Wentz being pressured constantly, I think this Eagles offense can get going here. Cleveland moved the ball at will against Cincinnati last week. Cincinnati's offense will be clearly improved this year. Joe Burrow has looked very good in his first two games. Remember, he didn't get any preseason, and he has still played very well as a rookie in his first two games. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Eagles very weak linebackers. Burrow likes to use his tight ends in the passing game, and that should help here. The Eagles should have the lead here (they are a clear favorite), and the Bengals have played extremely fast when trailing so far this year. The Bengals have shown they have backdoor potential and can move the ball quickly late in the game. This one sits below the key numbers of 47 and 48. With no bad weather in the forecast, I like this one to get past the posted total. Take the over.
09-26-20	Tennessee v. South Carolina UNDER 48		31-27	Loss	-110	124 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year. South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury. Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game.
09-26-20	Duke v. Virginia UNDER 46.5		20-38	Loss	-110	19 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern. Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. Look for a tight low scoring game. Take the under.
09-26-20	West Virginia v. Oklahoma State UNDER 54		13-27	Win	100	120 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor. Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%. The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high. Take the under.
09-26-20	Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 44		37-34	Loss	-105	16 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary. Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here. In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12. Take the under here.
09-26-20	Georgia Tech v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5		20-37	Loss	-105	15 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down. Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game. Take the under.
09-24-20	Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5		31-13	Loss	-110	41 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins pass defense has struggled badly through their first two weeks. Buffalo threw for more than 400 yards on them a week ago. Byron Jones is doubtful for this game, and he is clearly a very talented member of the Dolphins secondary. Jacksonville's pass offense has been surprisingly effective through the first couple weeks of the season. The Jaguars moved the ball at will against the Titans on Sunday. Gardner Minshew continues to exceed expectations week after week at the quarterback spot. He has a couple nice new weapons this year in Shenault and Eiffert. I think Jacksonville moves it through the air easily in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good over quarterback. He can make the big play downfield, and he can also throw the pick sixes at any time. The Dolphins still have a bunch of speed on the outside, and the Jaguars secondary is a weakness. The offenses have had the edge in the early going in the NFL. Without the fan noise and with the rules set to help offenses as much as possible, I think many of these lower totaled games with two questionable defenses are good over looks. Take the over here.
09-21-20	Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49		24-34	Loss	-110	76 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Las Vegas Raiders open up their new stadium, but they'll do it without fans. This is still a huge game for the franchise. New Orleans is coming off a nice win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in week one. The Saints offense was actually a disappointment though. The Saints only averaged 4.1 yards per play. Michael Thomas is expected to miss this game as well, and he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. This limits Drew Brees even further. The Saints don't play quickly, and they don't look to throw it downfield. They are looking for short passes and methodically moving the football. The New Orleans defense is underrated. This is a very good unit. The secondary is excellent and very deep. The Raiders are unlikely to be testing the Saints downfield. I think it is far more likely that the Raiders look to run the football early and often here with Jacobs. Derek Carr doesn't put up huge yardage through the air normally, and the Saints having a defensive coordinator who was previously Carr's coach is helpful to the defense as well. Take the under here.
09-20-20	49ers v. Jets UNDER 42.5		31-13	Loss	-110	73 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Francisco 49ers want to run the football early and often, especially with their injury issues right now. Deebo Samuel is out this week. George Kittle is banged up and is questionable here. Kittle might play, but he'll be less than 100 percent. The New York Jets really only do one thing well, and that is stop the run. The front seven has several good run stuffers. The Jets secondary is a weakness and the pass rush isn't very good, but the 49ers likely aren't the team to expose the pass defense weakness in their current form. The Arizona Cardinals moved the ball quite a bit on the 49ers defense last week, but the Jets offense shows no resemblance of the Cardinals offense. The Jets running game is very weak, and Sam Darnold doesn't have enough weapons on the outside either. The 49ers elite pass rush should give Darnold quite a bit of trouble throughout this contest. Look for this game to be played conservatively as the clock keeps ticking away. Take the under.
09-20-20	Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53		39-40	Win	100	33 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys moved the ball just fine last week, but they didn't finish off drives. Atlanta put up a bunch of yards and quite a few points on Seattle last week, but their defense was torched by Seattle in the loss. Sean Lee was already out for Dallas, and then the Cowboys best defender and key linebacker Leighton Vander Esch went down with an injury last week. They can't afford to be without him thanks to a thin LB group, but he's out with an injury and he'll be missed badly. Atlanta has arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the NFL. The Cowboys secondary is mediocre at best this year. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game to pick up big chunks here. Dallas is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Falcons have a bottom five defense in the league. The Cowboys have far too many weapons for Atlanta to slow them down in this one. Dak Prescott has all sorts of weapons around him, and I think they will get on track this week. Dallas' group of receivers is a top 3 group of WR's as well. This one is played on the fast track in Dallas, and both quarterbacks should look great against the opposing secondary. Take the over.
09-20-20	Vikings v. Colts OVER 48.5		11-28	Loss	-115	20 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indianapolis Colts host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis' game last week against the Jaguars was misleading. The Colts never punted all game long. They put up more than 400 yards of offense. They had a couple key turnovers and were stopped on 4th down twice. Still, the Colts averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play. The Minnesota Vikings defense has some major problems in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but those Packers receivers (who outside of Adams aren't all that good) were wide open throughout that game. Minnesota's defensive line is a major weakness without Danielle Hunter as well. The Colts offensive front is one of the best in the NFL, and they should give Phillip Rivers lots of time to throw here. They'll also open up plenty of holes for Taylor to run through. The Vikings run game is very good, and the Colts defensive line is questionable. I think the Vikings will break some big gainers in the run game. Also, I think it is likely the Colts will playing from ahead here, and that will make Minnesota get more aggressive in the passing game. We saw what could happen in a spot like that last week. The Vikings and Packers combined to score a whopping 38 points in the 4th quarter alone. This one is played indoors and that will help both Cousins and Rivers a lot here. Look for plenty of scoring. Take the over.
09-19-20	Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66		7-16	Loss	-110	16 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I expect really big things from the Oklahoma State offense this year. The Cowboys were very good offensively last year, but I expect them to take the next step to being elite on offense this year as Spencer Sanders improves in his sophomore season at quarterback. Oklahoma State has who I believe is the best running back in the country in Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has a top 3 or 4 group of wide receivers. The Cowboys want to play fast and they should be able to get plays in large bunches against a Tulsa defense that is going to be very weak this season. Tulsa's defense hasn't been very good in recent seasons, but they lost their top three defenders from last year's team. Tulsa's secondary is a mess, and Oklahoma State should be able to take advantage. Tulsa's offense is improved this year. With Smith at quarterback, Phillip Montgomery can actually run the type of offense he's been wanting to run for the last few years. Their pace will be extremely quick. No bad weather is in the area, and with the tempo this will be played at I expect a very high scoring game. Take the over.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51.5		17-20	Loss	-110	19 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Los Angeles Rams still have more weapons on offense than many people realize. The wide receivers here are still very solid. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson should be very productive. Jared Goff has shown he can be a quality NFL quarterback when put in the right spots and when given time. Dallas has a middle of the road pass rush. The Cowboys are also without Jourdan Lewis (CB) for this game. The Rams should play with pace here, and I think they'll get some big gainers on a Dallas defense that has some holes in it. Dallas has an amazing trio of wide receivers that is going to give just about any secondary trouble this year. The Rams still have very good corners, but they aren't as strong at the safety spots this year. The Rams LB's are a major weakness this season, and Dallas should be able to expose this group of LB's both in the running game and the passing game. The last four times these two teams have met the game has gone over the total. Look for a 5th straight over. Take the over here.
09-13-20	Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45		43-34	Loss	-108	20 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Green Bay Packers didn't get Aaron Rodgers weapons on the outside like he needed. Green Bay is going to have to lean on the running game even more heavily than they did a year ago. I look for the Packers to slow the pace of the game down and lean on their offensive front and the running backs quite a bit here. Minnesota will be among the most run-oriented offenses of anyone in the NFL. The Vikings have less weapons on the outside than they did a year ago, and they know Kirk Cousins can't just take over the game by himself. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. Last year's games finished with 37 and 33 points total. These two teams know what the other one is going to do here, and that should help the defenses a lot. Bill Vinovich's crew will be doing this game and the under is 58-42 in Vinovich's 100 contests. Also, the under is a whopping 17-3 in the Vikings last 20 vs. a divisional opponent. Take the under.
09-13-20	Jets v. Bills UNDER 40		17-27	Loss	-110	11 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New York Jets offense wasn't good to start with, and Robby Anderson was a pretty big loss at wide receiver in the offseason. Without Ryan Kalil at center, they yet again look very weak on the offensive line. The Buffalo Bills have improved skill position talent on offense, but the offensive line still isn't very good. The Jets have a pretty good run stuffing defensive line, and I think they can hold their own in this matchup. The weather here should be a major factor. The weather report calls for a 95% chance of rain during this game with sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 26 mph. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative. It will be harder for Buffalo to try to utilize their new weapons at wide receiver. The two contests between these two teams last year finished with 33 points and 19 points total. Take the under.
09-12-20	Charlotte v. Appalachian State OVER 59.5		20-35	Loss	-110	22 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Appalachian State Mountaineers have a veteran offense led by Zac Thomas at quarterback. They have a deep group of running backs and a good offensive line as well. I expect App State to be a balanced and very strong offense this year. Appalachian State lost all 3 linebackers from last year, and all three of them were stars. They return just 5 starters on defense. The Mountaineers won't be bad defensively, but they are a clear step down from a year ago. Charlotte returns a bunch of production on offense. Reynolds is a really underrated quarterback for this team. They have the offensive line to run on most teams. The 49ers have talked about playing a bit faster this year as well. The 49ers defense isn't good enough to consistently slow down App State. The 49ers lost their top defensive lineman from last year. These two teams met last year and the final score was 56-41 App State. Do I think we see something like that again? No I don't. However, they don't have to get even close to that high scoring to cash the over here. Rain is expected here, but without wind I don't see rain as a negative, especially with two teams with great running games. Take the over.
09-10-20	Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54		20-34	Push	0	31 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Chiefs adds Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which is a scary thought for opposing defenses. He is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, and Patrick Mahomes now has another elite pass catching option. Kansas City put up 51 points on Houston in the playoffs last year in that wild come from behind win. Houston's defense is no better than last season, and it might even be weaker. Kansas City's secondary makes them vulnerable against good passing attacks. The secondary is already a relative weakness, but now they are without Bashaud Breeland. Breeland is a very solid player and a key loss for this defense. Houston will take some shots downfield, and I think they'll have some success there. The Texans are likely to be behind throughout which would make them more aggressive and play faster. The weather conditions are expected to be nice here with very little wind. Look for both quarterbacks to have a big game and this to be a fun high scoring contest. Take the over.
01-11-20	Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47		28-12	Win	100	77 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Titans offense was good late in the season. Ryan Tannehill is clearly an upgrade from Marcus Mariota. Still, the Titans offense didn't face many good defenses during that time. How did Tannehill and the Titans look offensively last week? They played a great defense in the Patriots, but Tannehill didn't look good. He was only 8/15 for 72 yards passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. Derrick Henry got 34 carries in that game. Overall, the Titans had 40 rushing plays compared to only 16 passing plays. Is that a look at what they want to do in this game too? Yes, I would think the Titans want to play keep away and move slowly and run the ball to try to keep it away from the Ravens offense. Baltimore is clearly elite on offense, but the Ravens do run the ball at a good clip too. There is likely to be a lot of ticking clock here. The Titans are a pretty good run defense. Baltimore will get their yards, but the Titans are more likely to keep them from explosive plays than most defenses would be. The weather here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. Rain is likely at least part of the time on Saturday night as well. This kind of weather would be helpful to the under. A game that would likely have conservative play calling would get even more conservative. Take the under.
01-05-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 49		26-20	Loss	-115	45 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New Orleans Saints offense played very well down the stretch. After their 26-9 strange loss to the Falcons, the Saints have averaged 34.2 points per game on offense. Minnesota is often thought of as a strong defensive team. That was the case a couple years ago, but that isn't the case any more. The Vikings have major problems in the secondary. This is a bottom six or eight secondary in the NFL overall. The Saints passing game is consistently good enough that I would expect them to expose the Vikings weaknesses here. Dalvin Cook will be back for the Vikings offense, and that makes a massive difference. The Vikings have been very explosive in the running game, and Cook makes the passing game much better as well. Kirk Cousins has a lot of weapons around him. The Saints are banged up defensively, and I think that hurts them in this game. The over has done well in playoff games in domes. In fact, the over is 29-13 in the last 42 playoff games played in a dome. I think both offenses have the upper hand here. Take the over.
01-03-20	Ohio v. Nevada OVER 58.5		30-21	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Ohio Bobcats played in 7 games this year that reached at least 61 points. Ohio is a big play offense, and the Bobcats defense is no longer the strength it was a few years ago. Ohio is 87th in yards per play allowed this year, and that was playing an extremely easy schedule. The MAC has many very bad offensive teams. Nevada has gotten a bit healthier in the last few weeks. Their offense should be able to break some big plays against Ohio. The Wolf Pack passing attack improved in the last couple weeks with Carson Strong airing it out quite a bit. Ohio has a star quarterback in Nathan Rourke. The Bobcats averaged 6.7 yards per play (11th in the nation) this year. It would be pretty surprising if Nevada can do much of anything to slow down Ohio's offense. Nevada is 106th in opponent QBR and Rourke should make this Nevada secondary look bad. The weather looks good for this one and this fits a system of two teams with less than 65% wins straight up going 59% over the posted total in the last 15 years in bowl season. Take the over.
01-01-20	Michigan v. Alabama OVER 58		16-35	Loss	-110	19 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Michigan Wolverines offense got quite a bit better late in the season. During the Penn State game it seemed something finally clicked for Shea Patterson and this group. The new faster paced offense is better than their previous pro style slow paced offense. The Alabama defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons. The Crimson Tide allowed 48 points against Auburn. They also allowed 23 to South Carolina and 31 to Ole Miss. Alabama's offense might be without Tua, but they still have all kinds of playmakers. The Alabama wide receivers will be the best group of receivers Michigan has seen all year. The Crimson Tide excel in getting big plays. While the Michigan defense is good, they were moved on easily by the best teams they played this year. Wisconsin rolled to 35 points and Ohio State racked up 56 points. Conditions look good here so weather shouldn't be a factor. Look for both teams to get to the end zone pretty often in this contest. Take the over.
12-31-19	Kansas State v. Navy UNDER 53.5		17-20	Win	100	21 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Navy Midshipmen take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Liberty bowl on Tuesday. Navy looked great in their final regular season game against Army. This Midshipmen team is much improved in every way compared to a year ago. What is most improved? The Navy defense. Navy ranks 14th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They drastically cut down on the explosive plays they gave up. Kansas State's Chris Klieman saw the triple option a lot in his time in FCS football with North Dakota State. I would expect his coaching staff to do a good preparing his defense for the tough task of slowing down Navy. Navy will get their yards, but I don't think it will come all that easily. Kansas State had only 48 plays of 20 yards or more (104th in the nation). That was playing against a bunch of bad defenses in the Big 12. The Wildcats are not a big play offense. Kansas State ranks 127th in pace of play and Navy ranks 117th. Navy runs the ball 88% of the time on offense and Kansas State runs it on 64% of their plays. A lot of moving clock here. Take the under.
12-31-19	Kentucky v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47		37-30	Loss	-110	17 h 25 m	Show

12-29-19	Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46		21-31	Loss	-110	44 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much better than most people realize. In the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense has put up some tremendous numbers. Kansas City's secondary is now one of the best in the NFL. I don't see the Chargers having the running game to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs either. The Chargers are without their top two offensive linemen, and that has hurt them a lot down the stretch. Phillip Rivers has become a liability for the Chargers. I expect him to struggle against this strong KC pass rush and strong Chiefs secondary. Kansas City's offense actually ranks among the five slowest in the NFL in the last half of the season in pace of play. The Chiefs have slowed down their tempo drastically. Kansas City is still very good offensively, but the Chargers defense has been good at limiting big plays. The Chiefs as home favorites under Andy Reid have been great to under bettors. In fact, when Kansas City is a favorite of 8.5 points or more at home the under is 24-6-2 in the last 32 contests. The Chiefs are likely to have the lead here, and I could see them sitting on this game late. The weather is a question mark here too. Winds of 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast for this game. That is clearly a positive for the under. Take the under.
12-28-19	Memphis v. Penn State UNDER 60.5		39-53	Loss	-110	12 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Memphis Tigers offense is explosive. No one can deny that the Tigers have big play ability at all times. Memphis isn't accustomed to playing a defense as good as Penn State though. The Tigers played the 71st toughest strength of schedule according to Sagarin. The best defense they went up against this year was Temple. Penn State will now clearly be the best defense Memphis has gone up against. Penn State ranks 1st in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Memphis is accustomed to getting some big gainers on the ground, and I don't think they'll get many of them here. Brady White is a good quarterback, but he hasn't been great against the best defenses he has faced in his career. The Penn State offense ranks only 58th in yards per play so far this year. They have been very inconsistent this year. Memphis' defense isn't a major strength by any means, but they aren't the weakness they were in past seasons. The Tigers are 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Both of these teams play at about an average pace. This is a high total for a game involving an excellent defense and two teams who play at an average pace. Take the under here.
12-27-19	USC v. Iowa OVER 51.5		24-49	Win	100	21 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a team I've backed many times for unders in recent years, but I'll be on the over in this game. USC has been a very good over team, and I think this number is set a little low. Iowa plays in the Big Ten West. To say that there aren't good quarterbacks in the Big Ten West is an understatement. Truthfully, there aren't any good passing attacks. Iowa's seccondary is good, but they aren't as good as the numbers on the stat sheet will tell you. Let's take a look at some of the opponents they have faced. They faced Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, Purdue (without their QB and Rondale Moore), Northwestern (yikes), MTSU, Illinois, and Nebraska (Martinez isn't good). Even the good teams they played this year aren't that good through the air (Wisconsin and Michigan for example). Iowa actually gave up 400 plus yards 3 times (Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota). Their defense is good but not great. USC has three guys projected to be first round draft picks at wide receiver. Slovis is an excellent quarterback. Graham Harrell is an excellent offensive coordinator and I expect USC to be well prepared offensively. Iowa also isn't accustomed to facing defenses as weak as USC's defense. The Trojans are banged up in the secondary, and their run defense is really bad to start with. USC only allowed less than 20 points twice this year. The Trojans don't have the pass rush needed to make Iowa uncomfortable. The weather shouldn't play a role here in San Diego. The Hawkeyes have a good quarterback in Stanley and I think he makes some big plays here. Slovis and his wide receivers should connect on some big gainers. Iowa isn't likely to end up in a low scoring game like they would against most of their Big Ten West opponents. Take the over.
12-21-19	SMU v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 69.5		28-52	Loss	-110	24 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This game is being played in Boca Raton (at Florida Atlantic). The weather here should be factor. Winds of 20 mph with higher gusts are forecast for gametime here. I wouldn't typically want to play an under with these two teams, but with this high of a number and the weather factor- I'm taking the under. Both of these teams are more explosive through the air than on the ground. With high winds like this it should limit the downfield passing attacks some. I would expect to see some more running of the football than most would expect, and both rushing defenses are pretty strong. With more running plays the clock keeps moving which is clearly a plus for the under. There are numerous very strong systems for high wind unders with a high posted total. I'll go with the systems here. Take the under.
12-21-19	Central Michigan v. San Diego State UNDER 41		11-48	Loss	-110	23 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Diego State Aztecs have been an under machine this year. Only one of their games has gone over the posted total. In fact, San Diego State's last four games have all finished with a total of 30 points or lower. San Diego State plays slowly on offense, and they are very inefficient. Juwan Washington is a good running back when he's healthy, but he is banged up now and is questionable for this game. San Diego State has very little passing game. Central Michigan had a good year offensively, but they were up against some extremely weak defenses in the MAC. Central Michigan scored only 12 points against Miami and 0 points against Wisconsin. Though this is certainly a low number, I think this game is likely to stay in the 30's. Take the under.
12-20-19	Kent State v. Utah State OVER 65.5		51-41	Win	100	90 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Utah State Aggies are second in the nation (out of 130 teams) in tempo. Kent State is 8th in the nation in tempo. Both teams have struggled at times this year with teams who look to slow the game down and bleed the clock while controlling the ball most of the game. That won't be an issue here. Both teams want to get snaps off as fast as they can, and there should be a bunch of possessions in this contest. Jordan Love has had a disappointing season. Love was terrific a year ago for Utah State. He is clearly a very talented quarterback, but the cast around him wasn't quite as good this year. They also played some solid pass defenses in the Mountain West. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Kent State's pass defense ranks 128th in the country this year. This is a great chance for Jordan Love to go out with a bang and put up a lot of yards against this Kent State defense. Crum has done a nice job for Kent State at quarterback. He doesn't make sensational plays too often, but he is efficient with the football. He has good receivers on the outside, and I think Kent State can get some big gainers in this game. Bowl games between two teams with middling records have been strong to the over in the past few seasons. Look for the extreme tempo to lead to quite a few points here. Take the over.
12-15-19	Texans v. Titans OVER 48		24-21	Loss	-110	155 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Tennessee Titans offense has really improved drastically under Ryan Tannehill. I don't think anyone could have expected the Titans to get this much better with the quarterback change. Marcus Mariota just wasn't getting it done, and Tannehill has been much more aggressive. The fact that Tannehill is looking downfield more often and is keeping opposing defenses honest has made things easier on the Titans running game as well. The over is 7-0 in the 7 games Tannehill has started since the quarterback change. Only one of those games fell below this number. Houston played terribly in their loss to Denver. The Texans need to put it back together here. I do think Houston has the ability to take advantage of the Titans primary weakness on defense (their secondary). Tennessee hasn't been tested in the secondary many times of late, but they face a great quarterback and some excellent receivers here. Both of these teams are willing to take deep shots and both teams have question marks at the safety spots. I see both offenses having quite a bit of success here. Take the over.
12-15-19	Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5		3-23	Win	100	44 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Denver Broncos defense has played well in recent weeks. Denver seems like a team that wants to play hard to the end of the season. Fangio deserves some credit for keeping this team interested after a really poor start to the season. The Kansas City defense has played very well of late. They are still susceptible against the run, but this is a much improved secondary. Patrick Mahomes is clearly not 100% healthy now, and that has hurt the Chiefs ability to get big plays on offense. The Chiefs have a long history of playing unders when they are big favorites at home. When Kansas City is a home favorite of 6 points or more the under is 39-17 in their last 56 games. When the total is at least 44.5- the under is a whopping 22-5. The weather here looks helpful for the under. Winds of about 12 mph with snow are likely during this game. That should make both teams more cautious with their play calling. Take the under.
12-08-19	Steelers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5		23-17	Win	100	47 h 6 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week The Pittsburgh Steelers have major injury issues on offense. Duck Hodges is now the starter at quarterback. He hasn't necessarily done anything wrong, but he is clearly a below average NFL starting quarterback. He doesn't have much help around him either. Smith-Schuster and Conner are both out for this game and that is a big hit to the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh's defense has carried them this year. The Steelers defense in its current state is a top five defense in the NFL. They have been able to force a ton of turnovers and they have a good red zone defense. Arizona's offense has been very up and down. The Cardinals have put up some big yardage numbers in the fourth quarter (garbage time) of some losses. Kyler Murray is coming off a really poor game and he is less than 100 percent healthy. The under is 23-4 in the Steelers last 27 road games where they are a favorite. They have played a lot of tight low scoring games. I think that happens again here. Take the under.
12-08-19	Panthers v. Falcons UNDER 47.5		20-40	Loss	-110	44 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Atlanta Falcons defense has played much better of late. Atlanta has allowed 347 yards or less in four of their last five games. Atlanta is giving up 368 yards per game for the season, but their defense has been trending quickly in the right direction. It's also important to point out that Atlanta has played the toughest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL so far this season. Some more positive regression to the mean is likely. The Atlanta offense has been disappointing. Matt Ryan appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. The Falcons running game is inconsistent as well. Carolina's defense is stronger in the secondary. I'm not sure Atlanta can consistently take advantage of the Carolina weakness against the run. Carolina's offense has really tailed off in recent weeks. They are too dependent on McCaffrey. He is great, but they don't have enough around him. Opposing teams are scheming to stop him more and more, and the Panthers haven't been able to make them pay. Take the under here.
12-07-19	Virginia v. Clemson OVER 55.5		17-62	Win	100	53 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Clemson Tigers are just way too good for everyone in the ACC. Clemson's offense didn't play up to expectations for a while this year, but they have been great in recent weeks. Dabo Swinney made it clear a few days ago that he believes the country doesn't respect them enough. Will Clemson want to prove a point in this game? It seems likely. Virginia's defense was really good early in the season, but if you look at the recent trends from this Cavs defense it is very concerning. Virginia gave up 25 first downs and 483 yards against a subpar Virginia Tech offense. Liberty threw for 313 yards against this Virginia secondary. Virginia gave up a whopping 28 points to a very weak Georgia Tech offense. The Cavs defense is not finishing the season strongly at all. Virginia is without star cornerback Bryce Hall and that has really hurt this unit. Clemson has scored 52 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have rolled up 516 yards of offense or more in seven straight games. I think they'll put up a big number here. Virginia has scored 20 points or more in all but one game this year. The Cavs do have a good quarterback in Bryce Perkins. Perkins though can make some bad mistakes with the football or hold the ball too long at times. It could create big plays for either the Virginia offense on a big gainer or a pick six or strip six if he doesn't get rid of the ball quicker. The weather looks good for this game. I see this number as a little too low considering how consistent both of these teams have been at scoring. Take the over.
12-06-19	Oregon v. Utah UNDER 51		37-15	Loss	-109	103 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This Pac 12 title game between Utah and Oregon will be played on Friday night in Santa Clara. Utah has a lot on the line here. If LSU beats Georgia, the Utes have a real chance to sneak into the playoffs this year. Utah would be well served to not only win, but be impressive in winning. The Oregon offense hasn't been good against quality defenses this year. Oregon has had long droughts against good defenses. The Ducks were only 4th best in the Pac 12 in yards per play on offense. Utah was easily first in the conference in yards per play allowed. In fact, Utah was 4th best out of 130 teams in the nation in yards per play allowed. Utah doesn't give up big plays. The Utes should do a great job keeping Oregon in front of them. The Utah offense relies on the running game. Utah runs the ball on nearly 66% of their offensive plays. Utah has also played at the single slowest pace of any team in the nation this year. They take a lot of time off the clock even when they do score. Oregon ranks 13th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Both of these teams are far stronger on defense than offense. The forecast in Santa Clara calls for rain all week. On Friday night, rain and some winds are in the forecast. Levi's Stadium has been good for unders to begin with, and this weather would help the under quite a bit. Take the under.
12-02-19	Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 48.5		30-37	Win	100	7 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Seattle Seahawks secondary is a major weakness. Even without Thielen, the Vikings have plenty of weapons to take advantage of this weakness. Kirk Cousins has been playing great football of late. He has an elite tight end to throw the ball to, and the group of receivers here are still above average. The Vikings secondary which was once seen as a strength is now showing by the numbers as a weakness. Minnesota is likely to give up some big plays here to Russell Wilson and his solid group of receivers. Minnesota has had 5 of their last 6 games reach at least 49 points. The only one in that stretch that didn't was a win over the lowly Redskins. The Vikings games have been sailing over the posted total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Seattle is giving up 24 points per game. With the move below the key number of 49, I like the value on the over here. Take the over.
12-01-19	Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 51		9-40	Win	100	61 h 52 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders in a divisional battle on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is a double digit favorite in this game. Oakland is going to do everything they can do to run the football as many times as possible here and keep the ball away from Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs aren't giving up too many big plays in the running game, but they are susceptible to giving up a few yards every time. I think Oakland can take quite a bit of time off the clock here. Kansas City has been a great under team off a bye with Andy Reid. That's partially because the Chiefs have been winning nearly every game off a bye with Reid. That helps because Reid and the Chiefs do slow the tempo down and get far more conservative later in the game with a lead. The under is 37-15 in the last 52 times Kansas City was a home favorite of 5.5 points or more. The weather will be a factor in this game too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph and gusts of 35 mph or higher. That should lead to a few less big plays. Take the under.
11-30-19	Colorado v. Utah UNDER 49.5		15-45	Loss	-111	26 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Utah Utes defense is tremendous. The way they have been dominating games lately has been truly amazing. Utah has allowed 7 points or less in five of their last six games. The Utes have only allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more all season. That is some excellent work at preventing big plays. Colorado's offense has been disappointing all year, and I would be surprised if they have much success at all here. Utah plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. The Utes also run the ball on 66% of their offensive plays. They have shown they are willing to slow down and run the ball even more when they are ahead by a large margin. That is likely to be the case here. Colorado's defense has played much better in their last three games. They have a defensive-minded head coach and their seems to be improvement being made. Colorado has been more conservative on offense of late and slowed the pace some too. I see Utah winning big here and this one staying under the total. Take the under.
11-30-19	Iowa State v. Kansas State UNDER 51.5		17-27	Win	100	124 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Iowa State has one of the better defenses in the Big 12. There are so many really high scoring teams in the Big 12 that the oddsmakers have to put a fairly high total on every game. Still, it can create some opportunities in spots where the defenses seem to have an advantage. Kansas State runs the ball 62.5% of the time on offense. This is an offense that wants to be conservative and move very slowly. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats are only 79th in yards per play on offense. Iowa State's strength is stopping the run defensively. The Cyclones are 36th best in the country in ypc allowed. They are giving up only 3.93 yards per carry in conference play. Iowa State plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Cyclones usually rely on the pass to move the football. The weather looks very shaky for this contest. Heavy winds of 20-25 mph are forecast according to multiple sources. I like the under without the wind, and with the wind this looks very valuable. Take the under.
11-30-19	Boston College v. Pittsburgh UNDER 52.5		26-19	Win	100	120 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Pitt Panthers are a strong under team. Pitt is playing slightly faster this year, but their offense isn't efficient at all. Pitt is 114th in yards per play this year. The usually strong running game just isn't good this season. Pitt is excellent defensively. Their strength is stopping the run. Pitt ranks 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Panthers easily rank as the best run defense in the ACC. Boston College is all about the run. If you can stop the run, you should have a lot of success stopping the Eagles offensively. I expect Pitt to at least slow them down here. The weather looks questionable in Pittsburgh on Saturday. If there is wind and rain it would be a plus for the under. Look for a low scoring contest here. Take the under.
11-30-19	Southern Miss v. Florida Atlantic OVER 54		17-34	Loss	-110	120 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Southern Miss is much improved offensively this year. They rank 24th in the nation in yards per play. Their running game hasn't been very good, but they have been very good throwing the football. Southern Miss ranks 10th in the nation in yards per pass attempt. Florida Atlantic started the season a little slow offensively, but the Owls have gotten things going as one would have expected. The Owls are third in CUSA in yards per play. They are first in total yards. Florida Atlantic is the second fastest paced team in the conference. Both of these teams have really had trouble with keeping the play in front of them. Both defenses have given up a lot of big plays this year. Southern Miss has allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more (86th in country). Florida Atlantic has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or more (114th in the country). Look for both teams to score quite a few points here. Both offenses have clear advantages. Take the over.
11-30-19	Baylor v. Kansas UNDER 50		61-6	Loss	-110	25 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Baylor Bears have had a bunch of low scoring games in the Big 12. We all know this is a conference where a good defense and low scoring games are very rare. In Baylor's last 9 games, 7 of them have had 44 points or less total in regulation. The Bears have gotten more conservative on offense and they are leaning on their very strong defense. Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer is banged up with an ankle injury. He is likely to play through it, but that likely makes them a little more conservative on offense. Kansas has relied strongly on big plays this year on offense. They aren't an offense who can consistently put together strong drives. The Jayhawks face a Baylor defense who is great at preventing big plays. Baylor has only allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more (7th in the country). An important factor here is the weather. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22-25 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. There are very strong angles for taking unders in that kind of wind. It should make both teams run the ball a lot more often here. Take the under.
11-30-19	Wake Forest v. Syracuse OVER 64		30-39	Win	100	117 h 5 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Syracuse Orange offense has been better the last couple games. Syracuse put up 510 yards last week against Louisville. They had 395 yards and 49 points against Duke the week before. Syracuse always plays quickly. They are 16th in the nation in pace of play this season. Wake Forest is 12th in pace of play, so they are extremely quick. The Demon Deacons are without a couple receivers on offense, but they still put up 618 yards and 39 points on Duke last weekend. I rate the Syracuse defense as the worst defense in the ACC. Both teams have given up a bunch of big plays this year, and I would expect quite a few big gainers again here. Take the over.
11-30-19	Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 56		44-41	Loss	-109	108 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have a fierce rivalry. They play for the Old Oaken Bucket. These two teams always get up for this game, and I would expect a lot of intensity on Saturday in West Lafayette. Indiana's defense is much improved this year. The Hoosiers rank 35th in the country in yards per play allowed. Indiana has slowed their tempo offensively to help the defense this year, and it has worked. Purdue's offense is a shell of its former self without Rondale Moore and Elijah Sindelar. Purdue is reliant on throwing the football now. They have virtually no ground game. Purdue ranks 127th in the nation in yards per carry at a paltry 2.65 per carry. Indiana's offense also relies on the pass quite a bit. The Hoosiers are 104th in the nation in yards per carry. These teams relying on the pass could hurt quite a bit here based on the weather this weekend as well. Multiple forecasts are calling for rain all throughout the day on Saturday, and the rain could be an inch or more. The wind is expected to pick up and be an issue too. The field at Purdue is a grass field and it can get torn up pretty easily. Those conditions are helpful for the under. Take the under here.
11-29-19	West Virginia v. TCU UNDER 45.5		20-17	Win	100	88 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers are two of the better under teams in the Big 12. We see a very low total here for a Big 12 game, but I think it is justified. The forecast for Friday calls for heavy rain and 15 mph wind. This is a grass field and that will make it tough for scoring. In addition, West Virginia has virtually no running game. How will they move the ball here? TCU is excellent in pass coverage and the weather will hurt as well. TCU relies on the run, but West Virginia is excellent at stopping the run. The matchups and the weather make this an under play for me. Take the under.
11-29-19	Iowa v. Nebraska UNDER 45.5		27-24	Loss	-110	71 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Iowa Hawkeyes haven't played a game that has gone higher than 46 points in the Big Ten. That is just slightly above this number, but there is another key factor involved. The weather for Friday's game in Nebraska looks terrible. Freezing rain and rain with winds of 15 mph sustained and gusts to 20-25 mph are expected throughout the game. That is definitely significant enough weather to change the game. Iowa is 13th in the Big Ten in yards per carry, and I don't think they can consistently move the ball by being extremely conservatively. It will be hard to do anything other than be very conservative in this weather. Nebraska plays quickly, but they haven't been efficient on offense. Both defenses are excellent at preventing big plays. Even if the teams move the ball it should be in small increments and take quite a bit of time off the clock. Take the under.
11-26-19	Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5		14-17	Win	100	28 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan for this Tuesday MACtion contest. Western Michigan has been the most consistent team in the MAC this year. The Broncos have a good offense and a weaker defense. Northern Illinois has been a disappointment in general this year. The Huskies are 98th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo. Western Michigan ranks 75th out of 130 in tempo. Northern Illinois is 98th in tempo. The weather here is the primary reason for this play. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts of 35 mph during the game. Rain is expected as well throughout the game. A clear positive for the under. Take the under.
11-24-19	Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41.5		20-42	Win	100	38 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tennessee Titans offense has been significantly better with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback vs. Marcus Mariota. Mariota wasn't taking enough chances, and he was holding onto the football too long. The Titans have scored 28.75 points per game in their last four contests. The running game has been solid all along, but now opposing defenses have to respect their downfield passing attack. The Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been a big problem this year, and I expect the Titans to take advantage of that here. The Titans defense has been solid this year, but they haven't faced that many strong offenses. The Titans have still allowed a lot of big plays. Tennessee has given up 9 plays of 30 yards or more (23rd in the NFL). Jacksonville has allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more (30th in the NFL). The Titans are far more capable of taking advantage and getting those big plays than they have been in the past. The weather looks good for this game and the total is set very low. Take the over.
11-24-19	Dolphins v. Browns OVER 45.5		24-41	Win	100	35 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cleveland Browns haven't played a below average defense all season thus far. It's pretty amazing to think about that this deep in the season that would be the case, but the Browns offense has been up against so far this year. That changes here when they face one of the two or three worst defenses in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins. Baker Mayfield has slowly started to look a bit better. The Browns offense is pretty healthy right now, and the Dolphins secondary is banged up and is a big weakness. The Browns running game has been solid all year. Miami's offensive stats are skewed for the season. The Dolphins were horrible without Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That's not to say that they are great with him, but they are much better than they were with Rosen at quarterback. Fitzpatrick can be a positive for the over for two reasons. He takes a lot of chances and can get big plays for his team. He can also create big plays for the other team in the form of picks that create a short field. With the Browns without Garrett their pass rush is much weaker than normal. Take the over.
11-23-19	San Diego State v. Hawaii UNDER 52		11-14	Win	100	127 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Under San Diego State hasn't seen a single game finish above 48 total points so far this year. I fully understand that they are playing a Hawaii team who is capable of playing very high scoring games here, but I have to take the under in a San Diego State game with a line set this high. San Diego State's running game isn't even close to what it was a couple years ago. Washington is banged up in the backfield, and the offensive line isn't very good. Ryan Agnew is a clear weakness at quarterback. The Aztecs don't have good weapon on the outside either. The Aztecs still have a good defense though, and they have been good at preventing big plays. Hawaii's offense is all about explosive plays, but I think they'll find those harder to come by this week. Hawaii only plays at the 85th rated tempo out of 130 in the country, so they play much slower on offense than most realize. Take the under here.
11-23-19	Oregon v. Arizona State UNDER 55.5		28-31	Loss	-111	124 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Arizona State is likely to want to slow the pace down here and keep this a low scoring game. I believe they will know that gives them a better chance in this contest. The Sun Devils offense hasn't been very explosive this year. Arizona State has only 39 plays of 20 yards or more (105th in the nation). Oregon's defense has been really good all year. The Ducks rank 9th in yards per play allowed. Oregon ranks 4th in opponents QBR rating allowed. Arizona State's run offense has been really weak all year. It's hard to see Arizona State having too much offensive success in this game. Oregon's offense has been very inconsistent this season. The Ducks have had several key injuries on offense. Arizona State has allowed just 12 plays of 30 yards or more all year (11th best in country). Oregon has allowed only 8 plays of 30 yards or more all year (2nd best in country). I like defenses who prevent big plays when looking for an under. Take the under here.
11-23-19	Tennessee v. Missouri UNDER 46		24-20	Win	100	26 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Missouri Tigers offense has been awful the last four games. First, they scored only 14 points in a loss to the hapless Vanderbilt Commodores. Missouri then followed it up by scoring 7 points at Kentucky. Kentucky is a decent defense, but they aren't great. Missouri was then shut out by Georgia and held to 6 points by Florida. The Tigers have scored a total of 27 points in their last four contests. They have only one touchdown in their last three games. Tennessee's defense has been very solid this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, this is a defense that I rate as a top 30 defense. The Volunteers aren't likely to give up many big plays here. Missouri's defense has been excellent this year. The Tigers rank 14th in yards per play allowed. Tennessee's offense is 91st in yards per play on the season. I think this is a tight low scoring game. Take the under.
11-23-19	Temple v. Cincinnati UNDER 48		13-15	Win	100	124 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Desmond Ridder is playing banged up right now, and it is making Cincinnati a more predictable team. Temple is a defense that is due for positive regression. All year Temple has been much better in yards per play allowed than points per game allowed. This is a team with a very solid front seven on defense. Cincinnati wants to play slowly and eat up time. The Bearcats weren't particularly good at getting big gainers even with Ridder healthy, but they have gotten worse in that area with him at less than 100% percent. Temple's offense ranks 11th in the conference in yards per play. They have very little running game. They also lack a trustworthy quarterback. I see a lower scoring game here. Take the under.
11-23-19	Texas A&M v. Georgia UNDER 44		13-19	Win	100	22 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Georgia Bulldogs have proven to be a great team led by an amazing defense and solid running game. Georgia plays very slowly. The Bulldogs are 122nd in the nation in tempo. With a lead, Georgia has been more than willing to just run the ball up the middle and burn up the clock. They are a decent sized favorite here, so they are expected to be playing in the lead during this game. That's a positive for the under. Texas A&M's offense has been a disappointment this year. They are 6th in the SEC in ypc, but Georgia is first in ypc allowed. Kellen Mond has been disappointing this year, and he doesn't have receivers who break many big plays. The weather is a factor here. Georgia's field is a grass field that can get sloppy in rainstorms. There is heavy rain expected before this game and showers during the game. Winds of 10-15 mph will be blowing during the game too. I see both teams being conservative in this one. Take the under.
11-23-19	North Texas v. Rice OVER 55.5		14-20	Loss	-110	120 h 49 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green expect to have Mason Fine back under center here. Fine is the best quarterback in Conference USA. Fine should be able to find a lot of holes in this Rice secondary. Rice has been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but their secondary just isn't good enough. North Texas has the quarterback and the receivers to make them pay. Rice has started to show some more offense in recent weeks. The Owls are now up against one of the weakest defenses in the conference. The Mean Green have been giving up scores by the bunches. This total is set several points too low. Take the over.

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