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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-23-19	Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49.5		0-28	Win	100	120 h 48 m	Show
4 Star Play Under We have 2 good defenses in this matchup. VT ranks 30th and Pitt ranks 7th in yards-per-play. VT ranks 31st and Pitt ranks 6th in yard-per-rush. VT ranks 39th and Pitt ranks 14th in yard-per-attempt. Pitt also leads the nation with 45 sacks and VT ranks 12th in the same category. Both defense also rank in the top 25 of red zone scoring percentage.. While VT's offense has gotten significantly better since the home loss to Duke early in the season, they still don't overpower anybody and this will be a significantly tougher defense than anything they have seen yet. On the other side, Pitt's offense throws on nearly 53% of their plays (18th in the nation) and while that generally hurts an under look, Pitt's offense lacks consistency and explosiveness. They struggle running the ball, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry (110th in the country) and only 15 plays of 30 yards or more (109th in the country). Even when they get to the redzone, Pitt only scored TDs 48% of red zone trips. One last factor, this will be Bud Foster's last game at home for the Hokies and I'm sure the players will be motivated to get a good defense result. Rain is expected in this game which is likely to make both teams more conservative with their play calling. Take the under.
11-23-19	Boston College v. Notre Dame OVER 61.5		7-40	Loss	-110	119 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The biggest weakness of this Notre Dame team this year is their rushing defense. We saw it against Michigan in a big way. It also has showed up in some of their other games. Notre Dame ranks only 55th in yards per carry allowed. The Fighting Irish now go up against a Boston College offense that has gotten a bunch of big gainers on the ground this year. Boston College has scored 89 points in their last two games. Their problem is they don't have any defense. Boston College has allowed more than 40 points in three games already this year. The Eagles are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks 38th in pace of play. The Fighting Irish will get plenty of chances to score here. Boston College ranks 4th in tempo. The Eagles should be able to score their fair share as well. Take the over.
11-23-19	Penn State v. Ohio State OVER 55		17-28	Loss	-114	116 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Ohio State's offense has been tremendous this year with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins giving the team two great runners in the backfield. The offensive line has been far better than anyone could have imagined. Ohio State has excellent receivers too. Penn State has been victimized by good passing attacks the last couple weeks. I think Ohio State can do damage there and the screen game with Dobbins could give Penn State fits as well. Ohio State's defense has been very good this year, but they haven't had to play too many good offenses. The Buckeyes will likely give up some explosive plays against a Penn State offense that takes a lot of chances. This total was set under several key totals numbers. Both teams play quickly and I see this line as a solid value. Take the over.
11-20-19	Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5		17-20	Win	100	52 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Akron Zips scored two touchdowns last week against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. Don't let that fool you into thinking Akron is getting good offensively though. Akron hit a 87 yard TD pass for one of the scores and then they scored with a minute left when Eastern Michigan was up huge and playing a prevent defense. Miami (Ohio) has the best defense in the MAC. Akron has been held to 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. A touchdown or less from Akron is very possible here. Miami (Ohio) is weak offensively and they typically try not to run up the score. The Redhawks should win this game comfortably, and I believe that's a good thing for the under. Take the under.
11-17-19	Bears v. Rams UNDER 41		7-17	Win	100	101 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears have proven what they are at this point. The Bears are a team with a really good defense and a terrible offense. Trubisky isn't the answer at QB, and the offensive line in front of him has been a disappointment as well. Does that sound familiar? The Rams defense isn't as good as the Bears, and the Rams offense is better than the Bears, but there are a lot of similarities here. Jared Goff has been a huge disappointment. The Rams offensive line is a mess. They haven't been good and they are banged up as well. These two teams met each other last year and the Bears won 15-6. I couldn't expect a game that low scoring again, but I do think it will be a defensive battle. The Bears have played six games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. The Rams have played five games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. Take the under.
11-17-19	Saints v. Bucs OVER 50		34-17	Win	100	95 h 19 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed 33.42 points per game in their last seven games. Tampa Bay's pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves hadn't performed up to what was expected, but releasing him definitely didn't make this secondary any better. Tampa Bay has only allowed less than 27 points in a single game all year. That was their win over Carolina early in the year where Cam Newton was clearly hurt. This Bucs defense is really bad. New Orleans has scored 40, 28, and 31 points against Tampa Bay in the last three meetings. Coming off a bad performance last week, I would expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way here. The Saints defense will likely be without Marshon Lattimore, and he is the key to the Saints secondary. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but the Bucs are loaded at wide receiver and they should be able to move the ball and score plenty in this one too. The over is 7-0 in the Bucs last 7. Take the over.
11-16-19	Appalachian State v. Georgia State UNDER 62		56-27	Loss	-110	29 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Georgia State Panthers will be without star quarterback Dan Ellington in this one. Ellington was hurt at the end of the second quarter in last week's 45-31 loss to ULM. Georgia State scored 24 points while Ellington was in that game, and they scored only 7 points without him. Cornelious Brown was 8/18 for 80 yards in relief of Ellington. Brown isn't the player that Ellington is, and Georgia State is up against a good defense here. Appalachian State's defense didn't look very good earlier this year, but they have rounded into form. Appalachian State has allowed 7 points or less in three of their last four Sun Belt games. In their last five games overall, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 11.2 points per game. Georgia State's defense is bad, and Appalachian State should be able to move the ball a lot on them. The Mountaineers have slowed their pace down with big leads though, and I think this total is several points too high given the GA State quarterback situation. Take the under.
11-16-19	Air Force v. Colorado State OVER 59		38-21	Push	0	124 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Both schools actually rank in the top 40 in yard per play and despite Air Force's slow tempo, they have been able to put points on the board due to their effectiveness in the red zone (averaging 38 points per game in conference play so far). The Falcons also have a bit more of a passing game to keep teams honest than they have had in recent seasons. Colorado St has big play potential as they have 17 plays of 30 or more yards in conference play (2nd best in the Mountain West). The Rams have 30 plays of 30 yards or more overall this year (8th best in the country). Colorado State has been a fairly pass heavy offense this year, and the Air Force secondary is clearly the weakness of the defense. The Rams should be able to move the ball through the air. Colorado State's defense ranks 113th against the run this year. Being bad against the run isn't good when you are about to face this great triple option offense of Air Force. Take the over
11-16-19	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 45		21-14	Win	100	120 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Bo Nix and the Auburn offense has struggled when they step up in class. While he does look better at home, that has been against far inferior defenses. On the flip side of the ball, Auburn's defense has been outstanding all year long, including holding LSU to their lowest point total and their lowest yard per play (per game) of the season, and that was in Baton Rouge. Auburn's defense has been impressive in nearly every aspect of the game, stopping the run, preventing explosive plays and red zone defense. Georgia is going through at a surprisingly slow tempo this year, ranking 125 of 130 teams (and last in the SEC in just conference games). While their offense has looked good, they don't have the experience of the schedule that auburn has faced so far and I would give the edge to auburn's defense, especially with the hostile home crowd at Auburn. Both defenses rank in top 20 in yards-per-play allowed as well as red zone TD scoring %. Both offense run the ball frequently (57% of the time for UGA and 60% for Auburn), so the clock should keep rolling a lot in this one. Great defenses and a running clock would favor a low scoring affair as the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry adds a new chapter. In a game that mean a lot to both teams, look for the defenses to be ready to go. The offenses will have to work hard for their points. Take the under.
11-16-19	Kentucky v. Vanderbilt UNDER 45	Top	38-14	Loss	-110	120 h 56 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats have had less than 45 total points scored in every SEC game other than their opener against Florida. Remember, that game had 43 points and as Florida tried to run out the clock with a few seconds left they busted a long TD run. Kentucky has run the ball a bunch all year, and the Wildcats offense has really struggled. Their defense has kept them in games. Vanderbilt's offense is absolutely hapless. They are averaging a miserable 3.93 yards per play in SEC play. That is easily last in the conference. In SEC play they have only 13 plays of 20 yards or more all season. The Commodores often get behind and need to try to throw the ball, but their passing game is absolutely awful. Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team. I would expect an ugly contest here that stays under the total. Take the under.
11-16-19	Troy v. Texas State OVER 59		63-27	Win	100	120 h 35 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Troy Trojans have been a really good over team this year. Troy ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Trojans are 28th in yards per play on offense as well, so they have been putting up some big numbers. Troy has multiple options on the outside, and they have a veteran signal caller under center. Texas State ranks 48th in tempo. The Bobcats offense has finally started to click a bit better in recent weeks. There are some good offensive coaches on this staff, and I would expect them to be able to get things going more on the offensive end the rest of this year- and then especially get it going even more next year. These two teams rank 13th and 6th in the nation in percentage of plays that are a pass. That being the case, there should be a lot of possessions in this game with both teams playing at a fast pace too. This total is several points too low. Take the over.
11-16-19	Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51		23-6	Win	100	91 h 16 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Missouri Tigers defense ranks 10th in the country in yards per play allowed. They likely aren't that good since they have played a weak schedule, but the strength of this Missouri team has been their defense. Missouri's offense ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per play at 5.01 yards per play. The Tigers only have 37 plays of 20 yards or more this year (97th in the country). This offensive line has allowed 19 sacks, and the Florida defense ranks 5th in the country with 35 sacks so far this year. They'll be in the Missouri backfield in this game. Florida's offense and Missouri's offense both play at a slightly slower than average pace. Florida has been pass heavy this year, and the strength of the Missouri defense is the secondary. Florida's defense ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that number is skewed from their giving up so much against LSU. Missouri's offense clearly isn't LSU. This total has been bet up to a point where I see a good amount of value. Take the under.
11-15-19	Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 45		7-17	Win	100	102 h 14 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I view San Diego State as a great under team. They are so consistent in playing low scoring games. They have only played one game all season that has finished higher than 44 points. That's truly amazing this late in the year. Both offenses rank in the top half in conference play on percentage of plays that are runs as both run the ball north of 50% of the time, which means a lot of running clock which is good for the under (SD St running the ball on 60 % of plays in conference games so far). On the field, we have strength on strength. Fresno's offense ranks 2nd in the mountain west (27th nationally) in yards per play and San Diego State's defense ranks 1st in the Mountain West and 13th nationally in the same category. I lean with SD St defense having an edge with their complicated 3-3-5 defense to keep them close in the game. On the offensive side of the ball for SD St, they rank last in the conference in yards per play and 125 in the nation in the same category. Ryan Agnew just isn't good enough at quarterback. Washington is banged up at RB as well. Even with a weak Fresno St defense, this team struggles to move the ball and score. Take the under.
11-12-19	Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 50		42-14	Loss	-107	26 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Akron Zips have scored a grand total of 9 points in their last four games. Akron's offense is the worst in the country. The Zips are averaging 3.50 yards per play inside a MAC that is filled with bad defenses. Eastern Michigan has been a disappointment this year, but they are a big favorite here as they should be. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team, but they can't run the ball. If they get a lead, I wouldn't expect them to have much success running later in the game as they bleed the clock. Akron's defense actually ranks 54th best in the country and 4th best in the MAC. They are a respectable unit. It is set to snow in Akron on Tuesday. Most of the snow will likely be done by the time the game starts, but winds of about 13-15 mph and very cold temperatures will still be around during this contest. Take the under.
11-10-19	Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48.5		28-24	Loss	-109	19 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys are two of the most run heavy teams in the NFL. Minnesota ranks 3rd highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a rush. Dallas ranks 6th highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a run. These two run defenses have been excellent at not giving up big running plays this year. Dallas has allowed only one run all year of 20 yards or more. That's the best in the NFL. Minnesota has allowed only two runs of 20 yards or more so far this year. That's second best in the NFL. With a lot of running plays and teams who have been good at avoiding giving up big plays, I see a lot of moving clock and long drives here. If we get some drives where they take a lot of time off the clock and kick a field goal or don't score at all, it's a big plus for the under. Take the under.
11-10-19	Dolphins v. Colts OVER 43.5		16-12	Loss	-103	15 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins offense has been middle of the pack the last few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually playing pretty well right now. It's clear he is a big improvement from Josh Rosen. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball here against a Colts defense that is mediocre at best. Brian Hoyer gets the start here and the Colts are definitely short handed on offense, but this Miami defense is very bad. Miami has faced the 28th toughest slate of offenses this year, but still ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad in the secondary, and they have a cluster injury problem in the secondary right now. Even with the Colts banged up on offense, I think Frank Reich and this Colts offense will have a good game plan to take advantage of this Miami secondary. This is a low total for a dome with two questionable defenses. Take the over.
11-09-19	Nevada v. San Diego State UNDER 42		17-13	Win	100	128 h 14 m	Show
4 Star Play Under San Diego State is great at turning games into a rock fight. They are great defensively. They are challenged offensively. They are also well-coached. San Diego State hasn't had a single game finish with anymore than 48 combined points all year. That's truly amazing this deep into the season. They have also had 4 games with 37 points or fewer in them. Nevada's offense has been hapless of late. They don't have an answer at the quarterback spot. This team has no identity on offense, and I find it hard to imagine them scoring many at all in this game. San Diego State is typically a team that doesn't win by margins. They are content to run the ball and use up a bunch of the clock. They should do it again here once in the lead. Take the under.
11-09-19	Baylor v. TCU UNDER 52		29-23	Push	0	117 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Baylor Bears defense has really impressed me this year. Baylor ranks 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Baylor already has 26 sacks this year. They have been very good at getting into the opponents backfield. This is an aggressive Bears defense that is likely to cause the TCU questionable offensive line trouble. TCU has a solid defense too. The Horned Frogs rank 40th in yards per play allowed, but they have played some very good offenses. Gary Patterson is a defensive minded coach who should have this defense ready for this matchup. Baylor put up some big numbers early in the season against some weak teams. Their offense is decent, but it is a bit overvalued. TCU's offense hasn't been good all season. Take the under.
11-09-19	Penn State v. Minnesota UNDER 48.5		26-31	Loss	-113	17 h 6 m	Show
4 Star CFB Early Bird Special The Penn State Nittany Lions rank first in the country in yards per carry allowed (1.99 ypc allowed). Minnesota runs the ball on nearly 70% of their offensive plays. P.J. Fleck's team will try their best to use up a bunch of clock. They run the ball that often and then play at a bottom five pace. Minnesota will try to keep Penn State's offense off the field here. Penn State's offense has a star in Hamler, but the rest of the unit is good and not great. Clifford is up against a very good secondary here. Minnesota is a well-coached team and I would expect Penn State to have trouble picking up big plays. Minnesota is 5th in the nation in least 20 plus yard plays allowed. Look for some Big Ten smash mouth football played in Minnesota in what is a huge game for both teams. Both teams enter unbeaten and this is a big test for them. Take the under.
11-04-19	Cowboys v. Giants OVER 47.5		37-18	Win	100	24 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys are first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas had a bye week to get ready for this game. The Cowboys put it on Philadelphia in their last game. They should be up for this game though. They lost at New York against the lowly Jets earlier this year, and the Giants and Cowboys don't like each other. The Giants offense has shown the ability to move the ball pretty well this year when they are healthy. They have their skill position stars back in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. They should be able to make enough big plays to score a decent amount. The Giants secondary is a bottom five group in the NFL, and I expect Dak Prescott and his healthy group of receivers to beat them once again here. Ezekiel Elliot is a top two or three back in the NFL and he'll get his as well. I think this total is set too low. Take the over.
11-03-19	Packers v. Chargers OVER 48.5		11-26	Loss	-109	16 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Green Bay Packers offense has been on fire of late. Green Bay is averaging 32.3 points per game in their last six games. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have gotten it going. Now, Davante Adams is slated to come back from his injury in this one barring a setback in pregame warmups. Green Bay should be able to take advantage of a Chargers secondary that is weak at the safety spot. Injuries have really hurt that unit. The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator, and I think this offense will be more aggressive and move a little quicker under their new offensive coordinator. Phillip Rivers still has some pretty good playmakers around him. Green Bay has allowed 11 plays of 40 yards or more (worst in the NFL), so the Packers can be beaten deep. We are under the key number of 49 here, and I'll back the over in this spot. Take the over.
11-03-19	Lions v. Raiders OVER 50		24-31	Win	100	74 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Detroit Lions offense is more pass heavy without Johnson at running back. Detroit is 5th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, so the Lions have been able to get quite a few big gainers in the passing game. The Raiders pass defense ranks 28th in yards per pass allowed. Matt Stafford and this Lions passing attack should have a lot of success here. Oakland has been good both on the ground and through the air this year. The Raiders rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play. Detroit ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Darius Slay is banged up and is questionable. Mike Daniels is also questionable for the Lions defense. They aren't that good to begin with, and now they are short handed. Both of these teams have given up far more big plays than the average team in the NFL. Expect a lot of explosive plays in this one. The weather looks good in this one, and the number has dropped a little. I think the over is a nice value here. Take the over.
11-02-19	Oregon v. USC OVER 58		56-24	Win	100	124 h 14 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Oregon secondary hadn't really been tested until the last two games. They failed their test. Washington threw the ball easily on this Oregon secondary. Washington State put up a big number against them as well. USC has many problems, but they still have some of the best receivers in the country. They also have a good quarterback to get them the ball. I think USC can pick up big plays in the air against Oregon here. The USC defense is allowing 5.81 yards per play. The Trojans have allowed a whopping 127 plays of 10 yards or more on the season (112th in the country). Oregon's offense is good on the ground and through the air. They should move the ball with ease as well. Take the over.
11-02-19	Northwestern v. Indiana UNDER 47		3-34	Win	100	123 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been historically bad this year. Northwestern has played 7 games so far this year. They have scored 10 points or less in five of those games. Indiana's defense isn't great, but it has been much better than I expected. The Hoosiers rank 34th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Northwestern only has 10 plays of 20 yards or more in 7 games. That is easily worst in the nation. The Wildcats have absolutely no passing game, and the running game isn't very good. Indiana's offense has slowed their pace drastically this year. The Hoosiers will go up against a very solid Northwestern defense here. The Wildcats rank 44th in yards per play allowed despite playing a very tough schedule. Take the under.
11-02-19	Oregon State v. Arizona OVER 69		56-38	Win	100	121 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Oregon State is much better on offense than many realize. Jake Luton has done a nice job under center, and they have a pretty good ground game as well. This offense was quieted down by Cal and Utah recently, but now they go against a very weak defense in Arizona. Arizona is playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12. The Wildcats rank 18th in the nation in yards per play, so offense hasn't been the problem for much of the season. Arizona just fired defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, but I don't think there is a quick fix for their defensive woes. The Wildcats are giving up 6.2 yards per play. Oregon State's defense isn't much better. They are allowing 5.89 yards per play. Oregon State and Arizona both play quickly, and the offenses have clear advantages in this one. Take the over.
11-02-19	Utah v. Washington UNDER 48		33-28	Loss	-109	120 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Utah Utes play at the 129th pace in the country out of 130 teams. The Utes also run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays. Utah is a grind it out team. They will use their offensive line to try to wear you down a little bit at a time over the course of the game. Washington isn't likely to get much at all on the ground in this one. Utah is second in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season. I wouldn't expect them to be able to consistently put together good drives against this elite Utah defense. Washington also plays slowly. The Huskies rank 92nd in the country in pace of play. The Huskies defense has been much better in recent seasons at home, and I think they'll stay in this game. Utah is the better team though and I think they dictate the flow of this game. Take the under.
11-02-19	Mississippi State v. Arkansas OVER 56		54-24	Win	100	120 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas Razorbacks continue to push the tempo. Arkansas has played a lot of good defenses so far this year. The Razorbacks have faced Auburn and Alabama in the last two weeks. Those defenses will shut a lot of offenses down. Arkansas isn't good offensively, but Mississippi State is really bad on defense. The Bulldogs were great on defense last year, but they had to replace nearly everyone- and it hasn't gone well. Mississippi State ranks 111th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Mississippi State has already played three games that finished with a total of 66 or higher. Two of their last four games finished at 79 points total. These are the 12th and 13th ranked defenses in the SEC. Expect the two offenses to have quite a bit of success. Take the over.
11-02-19	UNLV v. Colorado State OVER 61		17-37	Loss	-110	120 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Colorado State's offense has been far better than most people realize this year. Patrick O'Brien is quietly dominating at quarterback for the Rams. He has completed 61% of his passes and has 1,716 yards despite starting the season on the bench. The Rams have 10 plays of 60 yards or more this season, which is best in the nation. What is UNLV's defensive weakness? They can't keep the opposition in front of them. UNLV has been beaten deep many times this year. The Rebels have allowed 27 plays of 30 yards or more already this season (127th in the country). UNLV has played several teams who consistently have low scoring games this year, and that has skewed their overall point totals down. They have already played Northwestern, Wyoming (they had a high scoring game here), Vanderbilt, and San Diego State. Take the over.
11-02-19	Middle Tennessee State v. Charlotte OVER 60.5		20-34	Loss	-110	120 h 33 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Charlotte's offense has been excellent this year. The new coaching staff deserves all kinds of credit. Charlotte was a bottom ten offense in the country for many years in a row. This year, Charlotte ranks 23rd in the country in yards per play. The 49ers have an impressive 48 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. MTSU has found a pretty good quarterback in Asher O'Hara. The Blue Raiders running game has gotten going in a big way the last couple games. MTSU is averaging 5.47 yards per carry (12th in the nation). The Blue Raiders can do enough through the air to keep teams honest. Both of these defenses are really weak. MTSU ranks 103rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Charlotte ranks 116th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Look for a lot of big plays both ways here. Take the over.
11-02-19	Kansas State v. Kansas OVER 54		38-10	Loss	-112	23 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas Jayhawks have turned up the tempo in a big way. In the middle of the year, they decided to change the way this offense was run. Their last four games have all finished with at least 65 points total. Kansas' offense is much improved compared to a year ago. I'm really impressed with the job Les Miles has done thus far. Kansas State is coming off that stunning win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats are thought of as a defensive team, but this defense hasn't been very good. Kansas State ranks 110th in the country in yards per play allowed. They have been very fortunate to not give up more points. This defense is a regression candidate. I think this total has been bet down because recent games between these two have been so low. These are different teams. Take the over.
11-02-19	Army v. Air Force UNDER 46		13-17	Win	100	23 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The under is a whopping 33-9-1 in service academy matchups since 2005. It makes a lot of sense. These teams generally benefit on offense from the fact that the opposing defense isn't accustomed to seeing the triple option. That benefit isn't there when you are playing against another service academy. Additionally, these teams badly want to win matchups against each other. In games with this kind of high level of motivation, it tends to lead to lower scoring games. Both teams play at such a slow pace that even if they move the ball down the field it should take a very long time. Even long drives with field goals are big positives for the under. Air Force has been throwing the ball a little more this year, but they are expected to have the lead and with a lead they are good at running the ball and using up the clock. Take the under.
11-02-19	Liberty v. UMass OVER 67	Top	63-21	Win	100	116 h 20 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over UMass is the worst defense in the country, and it isn't close. The Minutemen are allowing a whopping 7.71 yards per play this year. UMass has allowed 55 plays of 20 yards or more. They are equally bad against the run and the pass. Liberty's offense is due for some positive regression. They rank 28th in the nation in yards per play, but they are 60th in the nation in points per game. The Flames get a great chance to put up a big number here. The Liberty defense is allowing 6.12 yards per play. Liberty has had some red zone luck on defense or their opponents would have scored more. UMass surprisingly pushes the pace. The Minutemen rank 7th in the nation in tempo. Hugh Freeze wants his Liberty team to play fast as well. This number is several points too low. Take the over.
10-27-19	Raiders v. Texans OVER 51.5		24-27	Loss	-108	52 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Oakland Raiders offenses has had some really nice schemes planned this year. Jon Gruden is doing a good job putting Derek Carr in good spots. The Oakland running game is better than expected this year as well. Oakland's defense is terrible. The Raiders are especially weak in the secondary. They just traded away Gareon Conley to the Texans. Conley was the most talented player the Raiders had in the secondary. Oakland was already getting torched by opposing quarterbacks, and it won't get better now. Oakland allowed Aaron Rodgers and a bunch of backup WR's to light them up last week. Houston's last three games have finished with 85, 55, and 53 points. The Texans defense is giving up a lot of big plays. Houston's offense is hitting a lot more big gainers through the air too. Oakland and Houston have both improved on the offensive line compared to last year. Look for both teams to move the ball with ease in the dome at Houston on Sunday. Take the over.
10-27-19	Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 42.5		13-51	Loss	-110	75 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This San Francisco 49ers defense is the real deal. Their defensive front is arguably the best in the NFL. San Francisco is doing a great job keeping everything in front of them. The 49ers have only allowed 12 plays of 20 yards or more all year long. That is the best in the NFL. Carolina's defense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Panthers don't have any clear weaknesses on this side of the football. With a solid group of linebackers, the Panthers should be good all year on defense. The weather forecast for this game calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. That is enough wind to change the game a lot. That kind of weather tends to make teams far more conservative. That should mean more running clock and that clearly helps the under. Take the under here.
10-27-19	Chargers v. Bears UNDER 41		17-16	Win	100	13 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears defense is absolutely loaded. The Bears defense ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bears have faced the 10th toughest slate of offenses so far this year as well. The Bears have dominated on defense at times this year, and I think they will be very good here after losing a couple straight contests. They need this game. The Chargers offense is 12th in yards per play this year. They have faced the 28th toughest slate of defenses. This is easily the best defense they have had to go up against this year. The Bears offense is still a mess. Chicago has only 14 plays of 20 yards or more all season. They have only 1 play of 40 yards or more. The Chargers defense isn't great, but they have had poor fumble luck and they are good at preventing big plays. I don't see either team consistently driving up and down the field here. There is expected to be a 10-12 mph sustained wind at Soldier Field with gusts up to 20 mph during this one. Take the under.
10-26-19	Utah State v. Air Force OVER 58		7-31	Loss	-109	54 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Utah State Aggies are playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Jordan Love and the Aggies offense haven't been quite as efficient as one would have expected, but I expect Love and the passing game to improve the rest of the year. Air Force has multiple quarterbacks who know the system well and who can run the triple option and have success. The Falcons have scored 38 and 32 points on Utah State the last two years. They have allowed 38 and 42 points in those games. This is a series where there have been a bunch of points. The Air Force offense is much better this year than they have been in recent seasons. Air Force's defense has been weak against the pass this year. Love should have success against them. With the pace that this game will be played at this isn't a high total. Take the over.
10-26-19	Notre Dame v. Michigan UNDER 51.5		14-45	Loss	-109	29 h 19 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 15-18 mph with gusts of 25 mph. There is heavy rain expected as well. Michigan's defense is a top ten defense in the country. Notre Dame really hasn't faced many really good defenses this year. Ian Book is a question mark to me when he goes against good defenses. Notre Dame's defense showed me a lot in their close loss to Georgia. This is a Fighting Irish defense that has allowed only 16 plays of 20 yards or more all year (5th best in the nation). The weather here is significant enough that we should expect the two defenses to have the upper hand in this big game. Take the under.
10-26-19	Missouri v. Kentucky UNDER 45		7-29	Win	100	53 h 31 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Kentucky has played five games in the SEC. Only one of those games has gone over this total, and that game should have stayed under this number as well. It was their 29-21 loss to Florida. The Gators ran for a 76 yard touchdown with 30 seconds while they were leading 22-21. Kentucky's games since then have finished at 41, 31, 44, and 24 points. The Wildcats are averaging only 13 points per game in SEC play. They are without their starting quarterback, and it has definitely limited them on offense. Kentucky is playing the second best defense they have faced thus far in this game. Missouri ranks 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Tigers excel at not giving up big plays, and I don't think Kentucky will be able to consistently move down the field on Missouri. The Tigers offense has been extremely inconsistent. They lack big playmakers on the outside, and the Tigers will be tested by a Kentucky defense that is improving as the season moves along. The weather forecast calls for heavy rain and winds of 15 mph in this one. That will make both offenses more conservative than normal. That is clearly a positive for the under. Take the under.
10-26-19	Florida International v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 56.5		17-50	Win	100	120 h 1 m	Show
4 Star Play Over MTSU is 50th in the nation in yards per play offensively. They are 106th in the nation in points per game. MTSU is playing at the fastest pace of any team in Conference USA in its conference games so far this year. The Blue Raiders should be more efficient over time. They have only 10 touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips into the red zone this year. That should regress toward the mean. MTSU has been able to move the ball this year. FIU started the season off slowly on offense, but they are averaging 6.38 yards per play in CUSA thus far. They have played at the 4th fastest pace of any team in league play this year. FIU's defense ranks 68th in yards per play allowed. MTSU ranks 118th in the nation in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have shown plenty of vulnerability. This is a low total with two teams playing quickly and two offenses capable of scoring in bunches. Take the over.
10-26-19	North Texas v. Charlotte OVER 64		38-39	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over North Texas likes to throw the football a lot, and I can't blame them since they have a star quarterback in Mason Fine. Charlotte's defense has been mediocre against the run, but they are terrible against the pass. The 49ers defense is 124th in QBR allowed, so they have been getting torched through the air. North Texas ranks 35th in the nation (2nd fastest in CUSA) in tempo as well. Charlotte doesn't play fast, but they have hit a bunch of big gainers this year, especially in their running game. The 49ers already have 21 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. What's the weakness of the North Texas defense? Stopping the run. The Mean Green are allowing 4.77 yards per carry on the season. I see a back and forth type of game as both teams put up a lot of points here. Take the over.
10-26-19	Virginia v. Louisville UNDER 52		21-28	Win	100	24 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Louisville Cardinals have a good offense this year, but they haven't faced many good defenses. They were shut down by a really good defense (Clemson) last week. Louisville has piled up huge offensive numbers against teams like Eastern Kentucky, Boston College, and Wake Forest. Virginia ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Virginia's offense ranks 122nd in tempo. The Cavs look to slow down the game. Virginia averages only 3.33 yards per carry, so they rely on the passing game quite a bit. The weather forecast here calls for upper 60's and 20 mph sustained winds with 1-2 inches of rain in the afternoon. This is enough to push me onto the under in this game. Look for a lot of running the ball and moving clock. Take the under.
10-26-19	Penn State v. Michigan State UNDER 43.5		28-7	Win	100	24 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan State defense is better than their overall statistics look so far this year. Michigan State has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year. The Spartans took on Ohio State and Wisconsin in their last two games. Both of those offenses skewed the Michigan State defensive numbers. Michigan State's defense ranks 8th best in the nation when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Penn State ranks first in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Nittany Lions front seven should be in the Michigan State backfield early and often here. Michigan State ranks 97th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Spartans have yet to show they can do much of anything on offense against quality defenses. Penn State's defense is very good. The weather here is another plus for the under. A low 50's temperature with 15-20 mph winds and rain that picks up as the game goes on is in the forecast. Take the under.
10-26-19	Nevada v. Wyoming UNDER 48		3-31	Win	100	118 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Wyoming Cowboys play at the 110th fastest pace in the country (130 teams). Wyoming runs the ball consistently. The Cowboys have run the football on 76.6% of their offensive plays in conference games. They have very little passing attack, so the successful drives their offense has often take a very long time with a moving clock and small gains little by little. Nevada plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Wolf Pack offense ranks 112th in the nation in yards per play. They haven't been able to find much to get them going offensively. The early weather forecast calls for heavy winds in Laramie the whole week. Heavy wind played a big role in last week's game against New Mexico, and with winds things are likely to get even more conservative than normal for both teams. Take the under.
10-26-19	Southern Miss v. Rice OVER 50.5		20-6	Loss	-110	20 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have a new offensive coordinator this year, and this team is much improved on the offensive end. Southern Miss is 15th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Eagles put up 30 points against a quality LA Tech defense last week. They scored 47 points on Troy earlier this year. Their offensive numbers are pulled down a bit by being held in check by Alabama and Mississippi State, which is to be expected. This is a good Southern Miss offense. Rice can stop the run pretty well, but the Owls aren't any good in the secondary. They rank 122nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Southern Miss should be able to take advantage. Southern Miss had a great defense last year, but this year they have a subpar defense. Southern Miss is 122nd in the nation in yards per play allowed, and they are 129th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. Take the over here.
10-21-19	Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5		33-0	Win	100	176 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Patriots are an under team to me until proven otherwise. Even in their game last week the under was the right side, but there were 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns to send the game just barely above the total. New England has slowed their pace down dramatically this year and they are leaning on the running game more often. Tom Brady isn't surrounded by as many playmakers as he was in the past. The Patriots defense this year is amazing. New England is a top two or three defense in the NFL (they might be the best). The Jets hit some big plays against the Cowboys, but I don't think as many of those big gainers will be available against this Pats defense. The Jets play at a very slow pace and rely on the ground game a lot. We should see a lot of moving clock in this one. Take the under.
10-20-19	Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 49		10-37	Loss	-109	49 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Eagles and Cowboys is always a heated contest. Philadelphia and Dallas both have quality quarterbacks and good skill position players around them. Carson Wentz has been a bit up and down in his time in the league, but he has a high upside and I think he is trending in the right direction. The Eagles have been able to get more big gainers of late, and I think they have some matchups they can exploit against a Dallas secondary that is badly banged up right now. The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas hasn't cashed in touchdowns often enough, but I would expect that to improve. The Eagles secondary has been a problem all year long. Jerome Boger's crew is calling this game. They are well known for defensive penalties and high scoring games. The over is 97-69 in Boger's crews contests all time. Take the over.
10-20-19	49ers v. Redskins UNDER 43		9-0	Win	100	161 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Redskins have a new coach in Callahan, and he has made it clear he wants to run the football early and often. They will have a slow tempo and be far more conservative. The Redskins had 33 rushing plays on Sunday against the Dolphins. I expect to see them try to run it and keep the ball away from the 49ers offense. San Francisco's defense has been amazing so far this year. Their performance against the Browns opened a lot of eyes, and then they backed it up with an even more impressive performance defensively against the Rams on Sunday. The 49ers defensive line is excellent and the secondary is one of the best in the NFL. San Francisco has the highest percentage of running plays of any team in the NFL so far this year. They'll run the ball and eat up a lot of clock as well here. With a moving clock and a Redskins offense that is unlikely to be able to do much here, I see a low scoring contest. Take the under.
10-19-19	Michigan v. Penn State UNDER 47		21-28	Loss	-109	29 h 0 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines are playing faster this year, but they aren't playing efficiently at all on offense. Michigan is 81st in the nation in yards per play. They are up against a Penn State defense that has been tremendous this season. The Nittany Lions rank 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. I think Michigan will have a hard time putting together sustained drives against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions have a big advantage with their defensive front against the Michigan offensive line. Penn State's offense hasn't been consistent this year. The Nittany Lions have hit quite a few big plays, but they haven't shown the ability to put together long drives against good defenses. Michigan typically does a good job not giving up big plays, and this will present a challenge for Penn State. Both teams run the ball a little more than the average team, so we'll see a lot of moving clock. I think this is a game where points will be at a premium. Take the under.
10-19-19	Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 58.5		27-34	Win	100	124 h 52 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Western Michigan is second in the nation in explosive plays of 20 yards or more. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone though, and this is a team that is due for some positive regression when it comes to points per game. Western Michigan's offense is elite, and they aren't playing against even decent defenses in the MAC. Eastern Michigan has been even worse in the red zone than the Broncos. The Eagles also should have some positive regression on the way. The Eagles are throwing the ball around a lot more this year and Western Michigan's defense has allowed a whopping 108 plays of 10 yards or more already this year. Both teams should have a lot of offensive success here. Take the over.
10-19-19	Colorado v. Washington State OVER 69		10-41	Loss	-115	124 h 46 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Washington State Cougars defense has been awful this year. Washington State is allowing 6.65 ypp on the year. Colorado's defense has been even worse. The Buffaloes are giving up 6.87 ypp. These two have been even worse on defense in Pac 12 play. Washington State is allowing more than 8 yards per play in the conference. Both teams like to throw the ball a lot and there should be a lot of possessions in this contest. Take the over.
10-19-19	Arizona State v. Utah UNDER 45.5		3-21	Win	100	51 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Utah Utes have the slowest tempo of any team in the nation. Utah ranks 130th out of 130 in pace of play. Utah also likes to run the football early and often. Almost 65% of Utah's offensive plays are running plays. Arizona State's defense has been beaten badly in the passing game this year, but they have been good against the run. They haven't played a running attack as good as Utah, so they will give up some yards here. Still, Utah will be taking a lot of time off the clock and if they get held to some field goals it is a big boost for the under. Arizona State ranks 102nd in yards per carry this year, and Utah's defense ranks the best against the run of any defense they have faced. Michigan State also excels at stopping the run, and they shut down Arizona State's offense. Neither passing game is very good to begin with, and the weather is a key factor here too. Rain is likely later in this game, and it is expected to be windy throughout the entire game. With both teams playing slowly and running a lot, I think this one stays low scoring. Take the under.
10-19-19	Kentucky v. Georgia UNDER 47		0-21	Win	100	50 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats have had a really hard time moving the ball against quality defenses this year. Kentucky is up against a great defense here in Athens. Georgia's offense is very good, but they do play at a slow pace and run the football a lot. That means that while they usually move the football a lot, they take a lot of time off the clock as well. Kentucky plays at the 95th ranked tempo out of 130 teams in the nation. Georgia ranks 113th in tempo. Both of these teams prefer to run the ball when they can. A tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Athens earlier in the day on Saturday. The rain might stop before the game or it may be light rain here, but there will still be winds of 15 or 16 mph during this game. Additionally, this is a grass field and with rains of over an inch expected during the day on Saturday- the field might not be in very good shape. The weather is a plus for the under. Take the under here.
10-19-19	Missouri v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5		14-21	Win	100	23 h 40 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Vanderbilt Commodores are just an awful team this year. Their star running back (Vaughn) is dinged up and is listed as questionable for this game. Vanderbilt has a quarterback controversy. Neither of the quarterbacks are good. Missouri is a quality team this year. The Tigers are led by a defense that is 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Missouri is excellent in pass coverage, and they are above average against the run. The Tigers offense is a run heavy offense. Missouri is very likely to be in control of this game. We have some interesting references of spots where Missouri has a large lead. The Tigers have taken their foot off the gas and had low scoring second halves multiple times. -Missouri led Troy 42-7 at halftime and the final score was 42-10. -Missouri led West Virginia 31-0 at halftime and the final score was 38-7 -Missouri led SE Missouri State 37-0 at halftime and the final score was 50-0 Consistently they have had very low scoring 3rd and 4th quarters in games where they lead. Take the under here.
10-19-19	Purdue v. Iowa UNDER 51		20-26	Win	100	117 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers put up 40 points last week with backup quarterback Jack Plummer at the helm and Rondale Moore out of the lineup. That was against a weak Maryland defense though. Purdue couldn't do anything against Penn State's defense, and I'll be surprised if they have much success here against a good Iowa defense. Moore is one of the most electrifying players in the country, and him being out is a huge loss for Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per carry, so they don't have a running game to lean on. Iowa is 16th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Iowa's offense has some potential, but they play a pretty conservative brand of football. The Hawkeyes play at a slow pace and there shouldn't be too many possessions in this game as they grind things down when they are in the lead. Take the under.
10-18-19	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 53.5		27-20	Win	100	100 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Syracuse offense is a mess this year. Tommy DeVito hasn't been nearly as good as expected in this offense, and now he is trying to play through an injury. DeVito plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation as well. Not a great combination when you are trying to play through an injury and avoid getting hit. Syracuse has allowed 26 sacks in only six games. The Pitt Panthers defense ranks second in the nation with 27 sacks so far this year. They are going to bring a ton of pressure on DeVito in this one, and I think the Syracuse offense will likely struggle with the Pitt defensive line. The Pitt Panthers offense ranks 108th in yards per play this year. Kenny Pickett just hasn't looked like he is in a rhythm in the passing game. Pitt has been throwing it more this year, but the strength of this Syracuse defense is their secondary. Take the under in this one. Note- I would play for this for 4 stars down to 51.5 and for a 3 star rating down to 50
10-17-19	UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State OVER 65		37-20	Loss	-110	77 h 35 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arkansas State Red Wolves love to play fast. Arkansas State ranks 19th fastest out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play. Arkansas State has also averaged a whopping 7.77 yards per play in their two Sun Belt contests thus far. Arkansas State's defense is awful though, and they are going to give up a lot here. The Red Wolves allowed a ridiculous 722 total yards against Georgia State. They also gave up 28 points and more than 500 yards against FCS level SIU. This is a really weak defense. Louisiana's offense didn't look good against Appalachian State, but they have arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Ragin' Cajuns scored a 47-43 win over Arkansas State last season. Louisiana ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play on the season as a whole. These two offenses should have a lot of success. Take the over.
10-13-19	Cowboys v. Jets UNDER 45		22-24	Loss	-117	37 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Dallas Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas has an above average offense, but they aren't the best offense in the NFL. They have played the weakest schedule of defenses of anyone in the NFL so far this year. Dallas has taken advantage of the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins in 3 of their first 5 games. The New York Jets rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play. The Jets get Darnold back this weekend, but he isn't likely to fix this offense right away. Dallas' defense should come into this game upset after struggling last week against Green Bay. The Jets have the slowest pace of play in the NFL, and I expect them to try to run the ball a lot and keep the Dallas offense off the field. The under is 26-10 in the Cowboys last 36 road games. With the move up during the week, I see value on the under. Take the under here.
10-13-19	Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 47		33-34	Win	100	166 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arizona Cardinals offense had a lot of success against Cincinnati last weekend. I don't think the Cardinals offense will be all that good against quality defenses this year, but I do think they'll have a lot of success against the bottom of the barrel defenses. The Atlanta Falcons secondary is an absolute nightmare. Dan Quinn's defense is blowing assignments and giving up way too many big plays. Kyler Murray had a confidence building game last weekend, and I expect him to have a good game here. Arizona's secondary is a big problem as well. Matt Ryan and the Falcons still have a lot of weapons on the outside. Look for Ryan to find a lot of open receivers on Sunday afternoon in Arizona. A lot of tempo in this one and this number is too low. Take the over.
10-12-19	Wyoming v. San Diego State UNDER 41	Top	22-26	Loss	-114	127 h 23 m	Show
5 Star Top Play Under The Wyoming offense isn't any good at all. They were able to run all over the UNLV defense a couple weeks ago, but I'm not going to let that make me think their offensive woes are fixed. Wyoming can't throw the ball, and San Diego State will just key in on the run here and force Chambers to beat them through the air. I don't think he can do it. Ryan Agnew has been really bad at quarterback for San Diego State this year. San Diego State is 126th in offensive yards per play this year. They scored a whopping 6 points against Weber State and only 24 points against an awful Colorado State defense. San Diego State's games this year have finished with final totals of: 6 points, 37 points, 41 points, 40 points, and 44 points. Two of Wyoming's games have finished at 37 points. Take the under. TOP Rated play.
10-12-19	USC v. Notre Dame UNDER 59		27-30	Win	100	26 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Notre Dame's offensive statistics are skewed so far this year. Notre Dame has piled up big offensive numbers against a couple terrible defenses. Against the decent or better defenses they have faced, Ian Book and company just haven't been that good. USC isn't a great defense, but they are a lot better than some of the other units Notre Dame has played against. USC is reliant on the passing game, and the Notre Dame secondary is excellent. Slovis is expected back for USC here, but I expect USC's passing attack to be less effective than normal because of the defense they are facing and the weather. The weather here calls for 15 mph sustained winds with gusts of 25 mph through the game. This is a clear positive for the under. Take the under.
10-12-19	Charlotte v. Florida International OVER 62		23-48	Win	100	124 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Charlotte's offense has really impressed this year. Their coaching staff is doing a tremendous job turning this team that was previously hapless on offense into a very good offensive squad. The 49ers are averaging 6.54 yards per play (26th in the country). Charlotte has been breaking big runs consistently. That's important here because the FIU front seven has been really weak against the run. Look for Charlotte's ground game to do damage here. FIU's offense is finally starting to come around. They were an underachiever early in the year, but this offense has a lot of talent. Charlotte is way too reliant on their aggressive pass rush. FIU's offensive line grades out as above average, and I think FIU can burn Charlotte for being too aggressive on defense in this matchup. Take the over.
10-12-19	North Texas v. Southern Miss OVER 58		27-45	Win	100	26 h 2 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Southern Miss is now weak on defense, and they are much improved on offense in their new scheme. North Texas has an elite quarterback in Mason Fine, and he is up against a weak Southern Miss secondary. Look at the numbers Troy's passing game put up against Southern Miss. This looks like a great spot for North Texas to pick up their production on offense. I had this game projected at 63 points, so I'm glad to grab this one at 58. Take the over.
10-12-19	Middle Tennessee State v. Florida Atlantic OVER 62		13-28	Loss	-110	121 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Over MTSU's defense has been shredded all season long. Marshall may have only scored 13 points last week, but the Thundering Herd put up 578 yards of offense. MTSU's defense hasn't shown me anything that would make me confident at all about their ability to slow down Florida Atlantic here. MTSU is 120th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Florida Atlantic's offense started the year struggling against good competition, but the Owls offense has been great in their last three games. Lane Kiffin's team should put up a lot of big plays here. MTSU has been good on offense. The Blue Raiders passing attack should have a big edge on the FAU secondary which has been a clear weakness. Both of these defenses have been fortunate in the red zone. They have been getting away with forcing teams to kick field goals or turning them over in the red zone. I expect defensive regression in points per game allowed for both teams. Take the over.
10-12-19	Florida State v. Clemson OVER 59.5		14-45	Loss	-106	22 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Over For the last couple weeks, Clemson has heard a lot about how they aren't as good as they were expected to be. Dabo Swinney mentioned that he is getting tired of hearing it. The Clemson offense has been a bit of a disappointment. Here is a great chance for them to get back on track. Florida State plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, and Clemson has played quickly this year as well. The Seminoles defense has allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game, and I think Trevor Lawrence and company are in for a big day. I see Clemson putting up a big number here and Florida State doing enough. Take the over.
10-12-19	Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 42	Top	0-38	Win	100	120 h 26 m	Show
5 Star Top Play Under The Michigan State Spartans defense looked dominant in the first quarter last weekend against Ohio State. Ohio State ended up looking great offensively in the second quarter before struggling again in the second half. That was a weird game, but Michigan State did show they have a lot of talent on the front seven defensively. Wisconsin is a really good team, but they don't have the offensive balance Ohio State has. Wisconsin is going to run the ball over and over. Wisconsin's Jack Coan doesn't impress me in the passing game. The Badgers will lean heavily on the running game and use up a bunch of clock. Michigan State will give up some yards here to a great Wisconsin running game, but I do think they'll hold their own. The Michigan State offense is really weak. Wisconsin is first in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Spartans don't have an explosive offense at all, and I don't think they'll be able to consistently put together long drives against Wisconsin. The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph during the game. This is a clear positive for the under. Take the under. TOP Rated Play.
10-12-19	Mississippi State v. Tennessee OVER 51.5		10-20	Loss	-110	117 h 0 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Mississippi State Bulldogs aren't even close to what they were a year ago on defense. I think the market has been slow to adjust to their defensive weaknesses. Mississippi State was a top five defense in the country last year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play this year. The Bulldogs have allowed 31 plays of 20 yards or more. Tennessee isn't a good offense, but I think Maurer gives them a better chance at quarterback than Guarantano. The Volunteers have turned it over too much this year, and if they can hold onto the ball a little better, I think they can score against teams like Mississippi State. Mississippi State's offense should improve the rest of the way. The Bulldogs have enough weapons to be putting up better numbers than they have thus far. Both teams should put up a decent number of points in this one. Take the over.
10-12-19	Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 66		7-20	Win	100	19 h 1 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This is a rivalry game in northwest Ohio. The weather calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts to 28 mph during this game. That is plenty to change the game. Neither of these offenses are as explosive as they have been in the past. The Bowling Green offense ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. Toledo is much better offensively, but they have shown that they are willing to slow down the game a lot once they have a lead. They should have a lead here throughout. This is a very high total for a high wind game. These windy unders have treated me well in the past, and I'll back the under again here. Take the under.
10-10-19	Giants v. Patriots UNDER 45		14-35	Loss	-110	96 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots have been a great under team this year. The Patriots defense is a top two or three unit in the NFL. The Patriots haven't allowed more than 14 points in a game all year. The game they allowed 14 points in was when the Jets scored twice on defense. In all, the Patriots defense has only allowed 20 points in five games. With the Giants likely playing without Saquon Barkley again, it's hard to see Daniel Jones and the Giants having much success here. They struggled badly to get going against the Vikings in their last game. The Patriots offense has slowed the pace down a lot from last year. They are also playing more conservatively. The Giants defense isn't good, but they have at least improved in recent weeks. The weather forecast here calls for possible showers and gusty winds. That should make both teams more conservative, and it is definitely a positive for the under. Take the under here.
10-09-19	Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 70.5		17-7	Win	100	53 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Applachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in one of the best midweek games we have had in a small conference in quite some time. This game means everything to both teams. These are two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. There's no doubt both teams have been scoring machines so far this year, so you can understand a high total here. Still, this is an extremely high total for a game between two teams who run the ball often and don't play at a fast pace. Take the under.
10-07-19	Browns v. 49ers OVER 46.5		3-31	Loss	-110	41 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Over We finally get a good Monday Night Football game, and I expect there to be quite a few points scored on both sides in this one. While the 49ers defensive numbers look great so far this year, they have faced an extremely weak slate of offenses thus far. They faced Tampa Bay in their first game in a new offense. They faced a terrible Bengals team. They also faced the Steelers in Mason Rudolph's first game as a starter on the road. The 49ers defense isn't bad, but they aren't nearly as good as their statistics look so far this season. Cleveland's defense has faced a slightly below average slate of offenses as well. The Browns were able to take advantage of the Jets without Darnold. They were torched by the Titans earlier this year. They gave up quite a bit to the Ravens last week as well. The Browns offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Baker Mayfield should improve with his accuracy at least to some degree, and I would expect bigger games from OBJ. San Francisco hasn't been slowed down consistently by anyone so far this year, and I really like this 49ers offense. They are a well-coached unit and they have enough talent at the skill positions to do some damage. Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and that is great news for over bettors. The over is 97-67 in this crew's games. This is the best over crew in the NFL. Take the over.
10-06-19	Patriots v. Redskins UNDER 45.5		33-7	Win	100	155 h 17 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New England Patriots have a top three defense in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed a grand total of 13 points on the defensive side of the ball. They haven't played a really good offense yet, but they won't play a good offense in this one either. Washington is banged up on the offensive line. The Redskins went to Dwayne Haskins Jr. on Sunday and it didn't go well at all. Haskins may or may not start here, but regardless of who starts in this game I don't see Washington scoring more than 10 points or so. This Patriots defenses is good at avoiding giving up the big play, and I don't see Washington putting together long drives on them. The Patriots offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in yards per play. By the end of the year, they should be better, but right now they aren't better than mediocre on offense. They are calling a lot more safe play calls, and Sony Michel is getting the ball a lot. The Redskins will give up points here because their defense isn't very good. Still, the Patriots have shown they are willing to slow down the tempo this year and run the ball which helps the under a lot here. Take the under.
10-05-19	California v. Oregon UNDER 46.5		7-17	Win	100	25 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks defense ranks 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Oregon is far better defensively than most people realize. Cal wasn't good on offense with Garbers at quarterback, and they are even worse on offense with Modster under center. I would expect Cal to have very little success on offense in this matchup. The Cal defense is a strong one. They rank 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed, and that is despite the fact that they have played some good offenses this year. Cal's defense is a top 25 or top 30 unit in the country. Oregon plays on Friday this coming week, and the Ducks may be happy to slow things down with a big lead in the second half here. I see Cal having a hard time getting past 10 points or so here. A hard fought game between two good defenses. Take the under.
10-05-19	Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss OVER 58		6-31	Loss	-114	124 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Ole Miss' offense has been impressive in recent weeks. The Rebels already have a whopping 33 plays of 20 yards or more so this has been a really explosive offense. They also rank 10th in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss will continue to push the tempo here, and I don't see this weak Vanderbilt defense doing a good slowing them down. Vanderbilt has allowed 34 plays of 20 yards or more this season. Vanderbilt's offensive numbers don't look very good so far this year, but they have played some excellent defenses. The Commodores offense should be good enough to put up a decent number against a weak Ole Miss defense here. I had this number in the mid 60's. Take the over.
10-05-19	Rice v. UAB UNDER 44		20-35	Loss	-110	124 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Rice Owls have done a good job staying in games by running the football consistently and using up the play clock. Rice is much better defensively than they were a year ago as well. The coaching staff knows they don't have much of a chance at all in high scoring games, and they are doing a nice job dictating the tempo. UAB's offense is way down from the last couple years. The offensive line went from a strength to a weakness. The Blazers still have a very strong defense, and Bill Clark is a defensive minded coach as well. Expect a lot of running plays and a slow tempo. Take the under.
10-05-19	Air Force v. Navy UNDER 46		25-34	Loss	-110	121 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Under When these two teams get together, I like to look for the under. Both of these offenses usually have the upper hand against a normal opponent because that opponent isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That isn't the case when they play each other though. Both of these defenses see almost exactly the same offense they will face in this game every day in practice. That gives the defense a strong advantage. Also, both of these teams run the ball at such a high rate and play at a slow tempo. We should see some drives that take a ton of time off the game clock. Take the under.
10-05-19	Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 53		13-24	Loss	-110	21 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The MTSU Blue Raiders offense has really impressed me so far this year. MTSU ranks 45th in the nation in yards per play despite facing Michigan, Iowa, and Duke in three of their four games thus far. They are airing it out eraly and often, and Marshall's secondary has been really weak so far this year. Marshall has been doing damage on the ground this season. Marshall ranks 17th in the nation in yards per carry. MTSU ranks 122nd in yards per carry allowed. The Thundering Herd have multiple running options in the backfield at all times, and I would expect some big plays from them here. Both teams prefer to play at a pretty brisk pace normally, and I think there will be enough possessions here. The hot temperature (90 degrees) is helpful too- overs have done well in hot weather games in the past. Take the over.
10-05-19	TCU v. Iowa State UNDER 48		24-49	Loss	-111	119 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I view both of these teams as having clearly better defenses than offenses. Iowa State has had some unfortunate bounces and they have had poor luck on red zone defense. The Cyclones are 23rd in the nation in yards per play allowed though, and they have played some solid offenses. TCU ranks 9th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Gary Patterson's team is almost always well prepared defensively. There is bad weather in the forecast here, which is clearly another positive. With wind and rain that should make both of these offenses even more conservative and predictable. Look for a close low scoring battle here. Take the under.
09-29-19	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 42.5		16-10	Win	100	58 h 31 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New England Patriots defense has allowed 3 points so far this year. New England has certainly played some weak offenses so far this year, but the Patriots have a top two or three defense in the NFL. I love their defensive schemes, and I think they will give Buffalo a lot of trouble here. Buffalo scored only 17 points on the Jets and 21 on a subpar Bengals defense. The Bills offense still has a ton of question marks for me. I think Josh Allen is a gamer and I like the fight he puts up, but this Patriots defense is likely to give him and the Bills offense significant trouble. The Bills defense is a top six or seven defense in the NFL. New England is dealing with a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line is a particular area of concern right now for New England. Edelman is banged up on the outside as well. A divisional game like this with two excellent defenses- I like this one to be low scoring. Take the under.
09-29-19	Raiders v. Colts OVER 45		31-24	Win	100	33 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Low totals in domes have been good plays on the over in the NFL in the last decade. That is especially true in non-division games like this one. The Oakland Raiders defense is a bottom three or four defense in the NFL. I really like the Colts offensive play callers and I think Jacoby Brissett is better than most people realize. Look for the Colts to have a good game plan ready to take advantage of this Raiders defense. The Colts play a soft zone and the Raiders should be able to use their short passing game to move it down the field here. Indianapolis has a bunch of key injuries on defense. The secondary was their weakness to begin with, and Malik Hooker is a big loss for them. The sharp money likes the over here, and I have to agree. This is a low total for a game in a dome and between two teams with clear defensive problems. Take the over.
09-28-19	UNLV v. Wyoming UNDER 47.5		17-53	Loss	-110	26 h 16 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The forecast in Laramie calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts to 40 mph during this game. That kind of wind is enough to make a huge difference in a game. Wyoming and UNLV are already fairly predictable offensively. These are two bottom five passing offenses in the nation. The passing game will be even less of an option with this weather. Expect both teams to load up the box and dare their opposition to try to throw it over them. UNLV plays at a moderate pace, and Wyoming plays very slowly. UNLV does have a lot of potential in the running game normally, but Wyoming is 13th in the nation in ypc allowed. Wyoming's running attack will move the ball here, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Field goals will definitely be difficult in this weather as well. Take the under.
09-28-19	Arkansas State v. Troy OVER 56.5		50-43	Win	100	123 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The pace between these two should be especially quick. Arkansas State has a backup quarterback here or this would have been a bigger play for me. I still think the Red Wolves can have enough offensive success here though. Troy has been excellent on offense thus far this year, and I think they can take advantage of a weak Arkansas State secondary. Troy has big play ability and they have a veteran signal caller. Both defenses have given up a bunch of explosive this year. Look for a quick pace with plenty of big plays to get us to a relatively low total. Take the over.
09-28-19	USC v. Washington UNDER 61.5		14-28	Win	100	22 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Huskies are typically a pretty conservative team under Chris Petersen. Petersen is a great coach, and he should have his team ready for this game. Clay Helton isn't a good coach. USC has a lot of talent, but it's hard to say how prepared they will be here. USC starts quarterback Matt Fink here. Fink had good numbers last week against Utah, but he threw a lot of jump balls that ended up working out. Washington's secondary is definitely better than the Utah secondary though, and I'm not confident Fink will look as good here. Washington should have the lead here, and they play at a slow tempo. They will run it more often late in the game if they are in the lead. Also important to note is the weather. The forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers during this game in the pacific northwest. There will be 11 mph winds and gusts to 22 mph. That is definitely a positive for the under. Take the under.
09-22-19	Texans v. Chargers OVER 48.5		27-20	Loss	-105	38 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The LA Chargers have been ruining all kinds of chances to score with turnovers and stalled out drives deep in opponents territory. The Chargers have played two pretty good defenses so far this year, and LA still ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play. Rivers is still a good quarterback and he is surrounded by quite a few weapons. The Houston Texans offense has a lot of potential. As long as they open it up enough here and throw the ball early and often, I see this as a matchup where they can score plenty of points. Deshaun Watson is a really good quarterback, and he has tremendous wide receivers. The Chargers secondary is badly banged up, and Houston has a big edge at wide receiver. The Texans biggest weakness now is also in the secondary. Their defensive line isn't quite as strong as it was a year ago either. Look for Rivers to do some damage on this Texans secondary. I see both passing games having a clear edge here. Take the over.
09-22-19	Broncos v. Packers UNDER 43.5		16-27	Win	100	121 h 34 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Green Bay Packers I view as an under team at least early in the season. This Green Bay defense is much better than they were a year ago. I like their athleticism and speed at all positions. Denver's offense is very weak. Joe Flacco simply isn't the answer, and Denver is going to struggle all year on offense. They simply aren't explosive enough. I see the Broncos as a team who tries to play fairly conservative offensively, and they don't have enough weapons either. Green Bay's offensive tempo has been very slow so far this year. The Packers new offense hasn't worked well thus far. Green Bay is 2-0 because of their defense. The Packers offense is 30th in the NFL in yards per play so far this year, behind the Chicago Bears and just ahead of the New York Jets. The weather could be helpful here. The long-term forecast calls for 15 mph winds during this game and a chance of rain. Wind certainly helps the under. Take the under here.
09-21-19	Ball State v. NC State OVER 58		23-34	Loss	-110	26 h 18 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Ball State Cardinals offense looks different this year with Drew Plitt at quarterback. Ball State is airing it out far more often than they did in recent seasons. Plitt has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions so far this year. He is completing a whopping 70.6% of his passes. Ball State ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. They will try to play as quickly as possible here. They are also likely to be behind, which should make them play even quicker and be even more pass heavy. The Cardinals offense has been much better than most expected this season. NC State has gotten decent production from their offense this year, and Ball State's defense is very weak. Ball State has very little pass rush, and I think they'll give up quite a few big plays here. While NC State's defense is good, they are much better against the run than the pass. This secondary isn't great and I think Ball State can score enough to get over this reasonable total. Take the over.
09-21-19	Georgia State v. Texas State OVER 60	Top	34-37	Win	100	124 h 36 m	Show
5 Star Top Play Over Texas State ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Georgia State ranks 24th in the nation in tempo. Two top 25 teams in pace of play should mean a lot of possessions here. Georgia State ranks 129th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. Texas State ranks 119th in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have been terrible. Texas State is allowing nearly 6 yards per play, and Georgia State is going to run it early and often here. They should be able to expose the weakness of the Texas State run defense here. Texas State's new OC Bob Stitt wants them to air it out early and often. How much are they throwing it? Texas State has thrown the football on a whopping 68% of their offensive plays so far this year. If it weren't for some terrible turnovers in plus territory, Texas State's offense would have scored a lot more points so far this year. Plenty of tempo from both teams and two very weak offenses. Take the over. 5 Star TOP Play.
09-21-19	South Alabama v. UAB UNDER 51		3-35	Win	100	120 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under UAB has typically been a good rushing offense, but the Blazers are averaging only 3.24 ypc yards per carry so far this year. That's bad to start with, but when you consider they have played Alabama State and Akron that is especially bad. UAB does still have a very solid defense. Though they have played two bad teams, they have allowed only 20 plays of 10 yards or more and 7 plays of 20 yards or more. South Alabama has improved defensively from a year ago. This is a team that is being coached to try to avoid giving up the big play this year. UAB moves slowly so even when they score it is likely to take quite a bit of time. Take the under.
09-21-19	Western Michigan v. Syracuse OVER 63		33-52	Win	100	117 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Western Michigan Broncos have a really strong offense. Western Michigan has very nice balance. They rank 9th in the nation in yards per play. The Broncos have 22 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. The Syracuse defense has been a disappointment. The Orange have allowed a whopping 48 plays of 10 yards or more already this season. Syracuse's offense hasn't looked good so far this year. They have played a pretty tough schedule though, and Western Michigan's defense is very weak. Remember, Western Michigan's defense made Michigan State's very weak offense look great just a couple weeks ago. Syracuse will push the pace, and their offense should look a lot better here. Western Michigan's offense should be able to move the ball a lot as well. Take the over.
09-15-19	Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 53.5		28-10	Loss	-101	13 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been better on offense on the road than at home. That isn't common at all, but under Andy Reid they are averaging almost 3 points per game more on the road than at home. In fact, the over is 16-5 in the Chiefs last 21 road games. The defense has been even worse on the road, and the offense has stepped up away from home. Oakland's defense looked pretty good against Denver this past Monday night, but I don't have to tell you there is a huge difference in looking good against the Denver Broncos offense led by Joe Flacco and this KC offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Even without Hill, there are more than enough weapons here to take advantage of a weak Oakland secondary that is now without a starting safety as well. Oakland's offense didn't have to do much in the second half against Denver, but they'll need to keep pushing to score here. Derek Carr has better players around him this year, and he knows the system better now as well. The Chiefs defense is a clear weakness, and I expect Oakland to connect on some big plays here. Take the over.
09-15-19	Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45		16-21	Win	100	140 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Green Bay Packers defense looked excellent in week one. I know the Bears aren't a great offense by any means, but I liked what I saw from the Packers in terms of speed and athleticism on defense. Minnesota has a top five defense in the NFL. The Vikings won't make it easy on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in their new offense. Green Bay looked very shaky offensively in week one. This is a divisional rivalry, and these games have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. The long range weather shows 15 mph winds for this game which is just an added bonus. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
09-14-19	Texas State v. SMU OVER 58	Top	17-47	Win	100	122 h 28 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over Texas State’s new offensive scheme is a good one. They couldn’t get anything going against Texas A&M, but they moved the ball easily against Wyoming. Texas State’s turnovers and missed FG’s make it look like their offense wasn’t that good. The score doesn’t reflect how well their offense played. They also played much faster than they did in week one. Bob Stitt’s system is being implemented. SMU looks much better offensively with a good quarterback to run Sonny Dykes’ system. They have put up 37 and 49 points in their first two contests. Take the over.
09-14-19	Ohio v. Marshall UNDER 52.5	Top	31-33	Loss	-112	122 h 58 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under Both of these teams always circle this game. It’s an important rivalry game for these two schools. These rivalry games make me lean to the under to start with, and in the recent games against each other the under has had value. Ohio has decided to slow the tempo down drastically. They rank as the 9th slowest team in the nation pace wise. Marshall is also slightly slower than an average team in tempo. This is too high of a number. Take the under.
09-14-19	Southern Miss v. Troy OVER 50		47-42	Win	100	121 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Troy Trojans offense will likely throw the ball a lot this year with a veteran quarterback and a good group of wide receivers. Southern Miss had an elite defense last year, but they lost a ton of players from that unit. The Golden Eagles aren't bad defensively, but they aren't close to last year's level. Southern Miss is playing quicker and they are going to take more shots downfield in their new offensive scheme. Look for them to be able to get some big gainers on a Troy secondary that is questionable. This total is a few points too low. The over is 40-17 in Troy's last 57 non-conference games. Take the over.
09-14-19	UMass v. Charlotte OVER 66		17-52	Win	100	29 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UMass Minutemen defense is atrocious. They allowed 48 points against a terrible Rutgers offense in week one. They then gave up 45 points to Southern Illinois (a subpar FCS team) in week two. I’ve been really impressed with the Charlotte offense under their new head coach. They rolled up more than 500 yards of offense against Appalachian State last week. UMass has allowed a ridiculous 33 plays of 10 yards or more in just two games. Charlotte has been explosive on offense already this year. They have 34 plays of 10 yards or more offensively in two games. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 of the country in total defense. UMass should score enough here, and Charlotte is likely to put up a big number. Take the over.
09-14-19	Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 47		18-17	Win	100	120 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Iowa/Iowa State under- Brock Purdy is a good quarterback for Iowa State, but he lacks weapons around him. Iowa State’s front seven on defense is amazing. Iowa always plays slowly and has a fairly cautious game plan. The Hawkeyes once again have a very good defense. This is a rivalry game where points are at a premium normally. I don’t see that being any different this season. Take the under.
09-14-19	USC v. BYU OVER 51		27-30	Win	100	119 h 11 m	Show
*3 Star Play Over* Graham Harrell’s offense looked great last weekend in USC’s win over Stanford. Slovis is a nice fit at quarterback, and he has some extremely talented receivers around him. USC is playing very quickly as well. This USC defense is way down from where it was a few years ago. USC ranks 78th in YPP allowed so far this year, and they haven’t even played great offenses. BYU’s offense should be improved with Wilson at the helm.
09-14-19	Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 50	Top	13-35	Win	100	92 h 44 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under The last three games between Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati have finished with a total of 47, 38, and 21 points. Last year's game was played in poor weather, so that one should be discounted at least somewhat. Still, this has been a low scoring series for quite some time. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two. This is a game that means a lot to both teams. Miami Ohio is in Oxford, which is only about 50 minutes from Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been winning in this series consistently, but there have been a bunch of close low scoring games. Cincinnati's defense looked bad last week against Ohio State, but the Bearcats defense was excellent last year, and they certainly aren't playing an offense similar in any fashion to Ohio State here in the Miami Ohio Redhawks. Miami only ran for 2.4 ypc against Iowa in week one. The Redhawks totaled only 245 yards. In fact, Miami only had 349 yards against Tennessee Tech last weekend. There are a lot of questions about this Miami offense. They are young at quarterback, and he isn't surrounded by very much talent. Cincinnati's offense was due for some regression after their amazing success on 3rd down and long last year. The Bearcats are good on offense, but Miami's defense is the strength of their team. The Redhawks won't be able to stop Cincinnati, but I think they can slow them down. In terms of tempo, Miami is 91st in the country and Cincinnati is 120th. There won't be any fast paced play going on here. I think both defenses do a good enough job of preventing explosive plays to make this under very valuable. Miami is running the ball nearly 60% of the time so far this year, and Cincinnati runs it on 63% of their plays. Running clock is always helpful. I had this one lined quite a few points lower. Take the under here.
09-13-19	North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 62.5		18-24	Loss	-110	98 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Wake Forest pushes pace about as much as anyone in the country. North Carolina wants to play quicker this year as well. The Tar Heels have faced two good defenses in the first two weeks. The Wake Forest defense isn’t good. Wake Forest has put up big numbers in back to back games, and I think they’ll be able to score plenty again here. Lots of pace and a lot of scoring from each side. Take the over.
09-08-19	Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 49		3-33	Win	100	18 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Patriots were a much different team late last season than what they were the season before. They looked to run the ball far more. The Patriots also were led by their strong defense. I don't think most people realize how good this defense is now. This is a top five defense in the NFL. With Tom Brady aging, I think a more conservative game plan will likely continue. The Steelers defense should be considerably better with Bush at linebacker. He gives the team that quick linebacker in the middle of the field that they have been missing the last couple seasons. I think both teams will do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. A tight game where both teams have to settle for field goals several times should keep this one under. Take the under.
09-08-19	Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5		17-35	Loss	-105	39 h 1 m	Show
4 Star Play Under These divisional rivals square off in week one of the NFL regular season. The New York Giants are without a couple key wide receivers, which should make their game plan even more conservative for this game. Look for a lot of running the football and short passes. That should keep the clock moving quite a bit. Dallas will look to run it a lot and the Cowboys still aren't likely to take too many deep shots in this offense. Kellen Moore's system should take some time to get established, especially since Zeke hasn't been around until a few days ago. New York's Saquon Barkley is likely to bust quite a few big plays this year, but Dallas' linebackers make it harder to break big gainers on this team than the average NFL defense. Dallas is absolutely loaded at linebacker, and their speed is impressive. Five of the last six games between these two teams have finished at 40 points or less. Look for another hard fought contest here. Take the under.

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