*3 Star West Virginia/Oklahoma Totals CASH* The Oklahoma Sooners chose to switch up their offense entirely in the offseason, and it has worked beautifully. The Air Raid system with Lincoln Riley as the offensive coordinator and Baker Mayfield at quarterback has been tremendous right away. Oklahoma is averaging 41.3 points per game. West Virginia is unbeaten as well coming into this one. I do like this West Virginia team, but I think their defensive numbers are being artificially propped up because of their extremely weak early season schedule. Maryland is the worst team in the Big Ten right now. Georgia Southern is a Sun Belt team. Liberty isn't even an FBS opponent. Oklahoma should score quite a few here. The Sooners put up 45 on West Virginia in Morgantown last year, and that was before their improved offense under the Air Raid.

West Virginia has a good balanced offense that should score on just about everyone they play this year. Oklahoma has a good defense, but they gave up 38 points against Tulsa, so they are definitely capable of getting beaten by the opposing offense. With both of these teams playing as fast as they do, a total of only 59 points is low. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Denver Broncos are a totally different team than they have been in recent years. Gone is the fast paced offense where they are going to air it out constantly. Denver is slowing the game down and winning with their defense. The Broncos have assembled a tremendous defense. I believe Denver has one of the five best defenses in the NFL. Peyton Manning isn't a bad quarterback now, but he's clearly not what he used to be. Detroit's offense has more question marks now, and Matt Stafford will play through pain in this one. Look for Denver's pass rush to really bother him in this one. The under is 16-6 in the Lions last 22 games. The public taking the over (as normal, especially for a primetime game) has given us a nice value play. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars meet on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville isn't a good team this year, but I do believe they are a much improved team. Blake Bortles and this passing game are improving quickly. Why is that important? Because as tremendous as the Patriots offense is, New England has a lot of holes in the secondary, and I do think the Jaguars can put up some points here. New England's offense has looked like a well-oiled machine this year and the Patriots are unlikely to be slowed down by the Jags defense here. The over is 35-16 in the Patriots last 51 games. Jacksonville has been picking up the tempo and playing quickly, especially when behind. They should be behind throughout in this one, and I think both teams get plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Toledo Rockets and Arkansas State Red Wolves met at the end of last season in a bowl game. Toledo won that game 63-44. It's odd to see a total this much lower after a game like that. Toledo's defense is definitely better than it was last year, but Arkansas State has been able to move the ball against everyone they play this year. Blake Anderson's Arkansas State always pushes the tempo and Toledo is playing at a faster pace so far this year. There should be a bunch of snaps in this one, and both teams have a lot of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Take the over here. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Totals Selection* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a way of making games very high scoring. I won my college football game of the year last weekend with the Western Kentucky over against Indiana. Brandon Doughty and this offense can throw at will against mediocre defenses, and Miami's defense is far worse than mediocre. Western Kentucky should be able to name their score here. At the same time, Miami found something on offense last week against Cincinnati, and this Western Kentucky has a way of making just about everyone's offense look good. Take the over. 

*4 Star Tennessee/Florida Total* The Florida Gators still have an elite defense. Florida is also still offensively challenged. They scored 14 points in a titanic struggle of a game against Kentucky last weekend. Of course, Florida only allowed 9 points in that one and they won the game. Tennessee played Western Carolina last week. The Volunteers need to prove they can bounce back from their disappointing home loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago. The Volunteers are improving defensively. I don't see either offense having consistent success throughout this game. Take the under.

*Note- this line has moved since I selected it early in the week. I would recommend this as a 4 star play down to 49 and a 3 star play down to 46 points. Thank you.*

*4 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Golden Gophers could only muster 10 points against a terrible Kent State defense last week. Ohio is a much better team than Kent State. The Bobcats could give Minnesota a really tough time on Saturday. Minnesota's defense is scrappy, and I don't think Ohio will score many points here either. This is the type of game where viewers will likely be disappointed because of the sloppiness of the game, but under bettors should cash in. Look for a field goal battle and a game that finishes well below the posted total.

The under is 5-0 in Ohio's last 5 after gaining 280 yards through the air. The under is 8-1 in Ohio's last 9 after allowing 20 points or less. The under is 8-1 in Minnesota's last 9 after allowing 170 or less yards through the air. A 21-2 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals Takedown* The Wyoming Cowboys and the New Mexico Lobos have something in common: they both have an awful defense. Wyoming hasn't been able to stop anyone all year, and New Mexico's unique pistol/option offense will be a big challenge for them. Wyoming has a decent running game, and New Mexico is terrible at stopping the run. The last two years these teams have played to a 38-31 and 36-30 final.  Usually a lot of running is good for the under, but in this case I don't think it is since both run defenses are terrible. I expect this one to get into the 60's as well. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* Art Briles hasn't been happy with the Baylor Bears play so far this year. Baylor hasn't had the same type of killer instinct they had in the last couple years. After a week off last week, I think there's a good chance they come out ready to play here. Rice has a bad defense that is especially weak in the secondary. Baylor has all the weapons to expose that problem. Baylor scored 59 points or more seven times in 2013 and four times last year. I think they have a good chance to do it here. Baylor's defense hasn't looked good so far this year, and Rice should be score to get on the board a few times in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Boston College Eagles offense wasn't good at all to start the season. Now, they have to play the rest of the year without their starting quarterback. Starter Darius Wade was lost for the season. Steve Addazio has said he hasn't decided who will start on Saturday. That usually isn't a good sign. Boston College has very little talent to work with on offense overall. At the same time, Addazio's teams always play some very good defense. Northern Illinois showed how good they can be on defense last week in Columbus against Ohio State. It's hard to imagine either team getting past 20 points or so here.

The under is 5-0 in Northern Illinois' last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in BC's last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the MAC. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The South Carolina Gamecocks aren't even close to the same team they were a couple years ago. The exact same thing can be said of the UCF Knights. Both of these teams have been terrible so far this year. The primary problem for both of these teams is their offense. I expect that to continue this weekend. Both of these teams have good coaches and I think they'll work hard this weekend. The problem for these two is they have a major lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Look for a lot of long drawn out drives that fall short of the end zone.

The under is 7-0 in the Knights last 7 following a loss. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the SEC. The under is 6-0 in S Carolina's last 6 non-conference games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 170 yards or less through the air. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Miami Dolphins offense did very little last week in Washington. In fact, it was a punt return TD that was the key play for the Dolphins in that win. Jacksonville's offense was awful last week against the Panthers. The Jaguars offensive front gave up five sacks in that game, and the Dolphins defensive line is going to have pressure on Blake Bortles all day in this one. Suh is a huge addition to this defensive line and Cameron Wake is still an elite pass rusher for Miami. Jacksonville's defense is better than a year ago. Miami lacks big playmakers on offense. The Dolphins aren't a big play team, rather they will generally have slow and methodical drives that eat up a bunch of time. I think both defenses play well in a game where I think both teams have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. 

The under is 37-17 in Miami's last 54 road games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Cash* The Pitt Panthers offense isn't nearly as good without Conner running it in the backfield. Tyler Boyd is the main playmaker now, but Iowa has some good shutdown corners. Pitt's defense will be much better this year with Pat Narduzzi running the show. Both of these teams take a very long time in between snaps. That means we won't see many possessions in this one, and with defenses that are strong against the run, I don't see many points here. Take the under.

*Note- the line has moved since I selected this one early in the week. I would play this for a 4 star rated play down to 48 and a 3 star play down to 46. Thank you*

*3 Star NCAA FB Hidden GEM Total* The Oregon State Beavers offense has 12 yards in the final three quarters against Michigan last weekend. Gary Andersen has very little to work with on offense. San Jose State's defense isn't great by any stretch, but they should look decent against Oregon State's offense. The Oregon State defense is bigger in the trenches than San Jose State is accustomed to playing against. San Jose State needs to be able to run the football to have any consistent success on offense. I don't see them being able to run the ball on Oregon State here.

The under is 5-0 in Oregon State's last 5. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss by 20 points or more. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA FB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego State Aztecs offense has been awful this year. Maxwell Smith hasn't worked out as quarterback, and opponents are just stacking the box to stop Donnell Pumphrey and the running game. South Alabama lost nearly their entire team from last year, and they are going to have a long season. They will still play hard though, and this SD State offense only put up 7 points against a subpar Cal defense last week. San Diego State plays at a very slow pace, which certainly helps, and as much as they run the ball, the clock will be ticking. Both of these teams have been far better on defense than offense thus far.

The under is 6-0 in San Diego State's last 6 September games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by 20 points or more. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Total Value* The Washington Huskies are much less talented this year, but Chris Petersen's team is still solid on the defensive end. Petersen's teams always play hard for the full game, and Utah State's offense hasn't shown anything this year. They didn't even score an offensive touchdown against Southern Utah in their season opener. Last week the Utah Utes defense shut them down. On the other hand, Washington's offense is ugly and the Utah State defense is extremely good. Utah State has terrific linebackers who serve as the leaders to this unit. This one should be close and low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*The line has moved since I selected this one Monday. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars down to 43. Thank you.*

*6 Star Rated TOP Total of the YEAR* The Indiana Hoosiers and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are very similar teams. They both like to get off as many snaps as possible, and they both love to air it out early and often. Additionally, both of these teams play next to zero defense. These teams are both going to rank in the top 15 or 20 in the country in terms of pace, and they'll definitely both rank near the bottom of the country in defense. Brandon Doughty is the one of the best under the radar quarterbacks in football, and Indiana can't get any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. He'll have time to pick apart this secondary.

Western Kentucky scored 44.4 points per game last week. Western Kentucky allowed 40 points per game last week. Indiana has allowed 33 points per game or more in each of the last five seasons. The Hoosiers had no quarterback last year so their offensive numbers weren't good, but with Nate Sudfeld back under center this team is much better on offense. 

Huge play for me on this one.. I won't have a totals release stronger than this all year. Take the over big! 6* TOP Total of the Year *Please note- My line on this total is 85 points. I like this for a 6 star rated play all the way up to 75 points. Thank you*

*4 Star Ga Tech/Notre Dame Total* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets run the football on nearly every down. Notre Dame will likely be running the football more often than normal with a new quarterback under center. The clock should be ticking almost the entire game here. Georgia Tech always takes their time between snaps, and Notre Dame won't play fast with a new quarterback either. This Notre Dame defense should be very good against the run this year with an elite defensive line. Look for long drives that eat up the clock. Take the under. 

*Note- The line has moved since early in the week when I selected this play. I would play this for 4 stars down to 55.5. I would play this for 3 stars down to 54. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Under Radar Total* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are giving up an eye popping 6.66 yards per carry so far this year. The Ball State Cardinals have the single best offensive line in the Mid American Conference. Ball State is going to run for a bunch of yards in this game. Ball State's defense was torched by VMI in their season opener for more than 500 yards, so they have lots of defensive issues as well. In the past five years, these teams have played to the following final scores against each other: 41-38, 33-31, 37-26, 51-20, and last year 45-30. 

Eastern Michigan's backup quarterback looked better than their starter in last week's huge win at Wyoming. Don't be surprised if Ball State runs for 300 yards or more here. A lot of scoring. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons and Memphis Tigers play football the same way. They both play uptempo and look to keep the defenses off guard. I expect both defenses to be winded and struggling late in the game here. Memphis was a good defense in recent years, but they returned only 3 starters on defense from last year. Bowling Green's defense has been awful since Dino Babers arrived at the school. Matt Johnson and Paxton Lynch are underrated quarterbacks who will have big days here. Take the over.

*Note- the line has moved significantly since I played this on Monday.My number in this one is 84 points. I would play for 5 stars to 77 points and for 4 stars to 79.*

*3 Star NFL Eagles/Falcons Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles fast pace offense is well documented. Atlanta's defense will improve in their new scheme, but it is going to take time. Philadelphia's offense is going to be a really tough test in week one. Bradford looked great in the Chip Kelly system in the preseason, and should do well against a questionable Atlanta secondary. The Eagles defense wasn't very good last year, and I don't think they'll be very good this year either. Matt Ryan has been amazing in the dome in his career, and I think he has a big game here. He has some new weapons, and I think Tevin Coleman will prove to be a very good player in this system. 

The over is 6-1 in the Falcons last 7 September games. The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 Monday night games. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Best Bet* The Cleveland Browns offense is laughable, but their defense is very solid. You could say the same thing about the New York Jets. New York's defense got a lot better in the offseason. The Jets front seven was tremendous last year, but the secondary was a problem. What did the Jets do in the offseason? They grabbed Revis and Cromartie to give themselves a good secondary again. The Jets defensive front is still one of the best in the league. How is Cleveland going to do anything on offense here? The weather looks to be less than ideal for this game as well. On the other side, the Jets have more questions than ever on the offensive side of the ball. Look for both teams to struggle to punch the ball into the end zone here. Low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Late Night BAILOUT* I took the under in the FIU vs. UCF game last Thursday night and watched the entire game. The under cashed and UCF's offense looked absolutely awful. The Knights are now up against a much better Stanford defense. Stanford also comes into this game ticked off after being upset by Northwestern. The Cardinal are a team that slows the game down and runs the football a lot. UCF is the same way. Both of these teams have a bunch of question marks on offense, but they are very good defensively. 

The under is 5-0 in UCF's last 5 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 during September. The under is 17-5 in Stanford's last 22 overall. The under is 27-8-1 in UCF's last 36 September games. A 53-13 trend. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total Takedown* The Temple Owls had one game vs. an FBS foe go over this posted total last year. The Owls defense totally dominated Penn State last weekend. Cincinnati will have more success, but they shouldn't score a bunch like they will against most teams this year. Temple's offense still has a lot of question marks and they should run the ball often and use up the clock. The line move up made this one go into the play range for me. A game with a posted total of 55 where Temple is involved is almost always going to be an under bet for me. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* The Memphis Tigers are a different team than they have been in the past. Justin Fuente's team has been all about defense in the past, but they return only three starters on defense this year. Memphis does have a veteran offense though, and with superb quarterback play from Paxton Lynch, I expect Memphis' offense to be very good. The Tigers are pushing the pace a lot more this year. Kansas is a terrible team overall, but David Beaty is working on getting this team to play much faster. The Jayhawks are going to give up a bunch of points against everyone this year. They allowed 41 in a loss to South Dakota State last week. Both teams are playing fast and both teams have question marks on the defensive side. I've had this game circled since before the season started. Take the over big! CFB TOP Play of the Week. *Note- This one has moved a lot since I first posted it, but I did make this total 68, so I still like it as a 5 star play up to 63*

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Wyoming Cowboys lost 24-13 at home against North Dakota in week one. It will be a long year for the Cowboys. Eastern Michigan was beaten in week one by Old Dominion. Neither of these teams are going to be good this year, and both have tons of question marks on offense. Eastern Michigan's best player is their quarterback, and he is injured and questionable to play here. Even if he plays, I like this one, but I like it even better if he doesn't. Both teams play very slowly and run the football a bunch. This should be an ugly game that stays under the total. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Washington State offense is known for their ability to throw it against anyone. Rutgers is now without five of their top six players in the secondary after suspensions and injuries. Falk is expected to start here at quarterback for Washington State and I expect him to have a field day against this Rutgers secondary. The Cougars will push the tempo as they always do. Rutgers should have no trouble moving the football here either. Washington State's defense is one of the very worst in the nation. Rutgers put up 41 points against them last year (a 41-38 final in Pullman, Washington). I think this one has a very good chance to top the 70 point mark, which is why I like this total so much. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NCAA FB Total Value* The Clemson Tigers had a dominant defense last year. They returned only three starters this year on defense, and this unit is way down from last season. On the offensive side, Clemson should be better this year with a healthy Deshaun Watson under center. Watson has a ton of talent and the Tigers will run a fast paced offense all year. Appalachian State has some playmakers on offense and I think they can move the football in this one. Clemson will let up late as they have a big game coming up on Thursday night and they'll want to rest. That should allow Appalachian State to score more late. I think this one gets into the 60's. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Opening Night KNOCKOUT* It's Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. These are definitely two of the best quarterbacks in the game, and both of these guys should be ready to go. The Patriots have had all kinds of controversies around them in the offseason. If it were another team, I might be concerned about where there mind would be, but New England has been here before and they have shown they are great at focusing on the task at hand. In my estimation, both of these defenses got a little weaker in the offseason. New England lost Wilfork and Revis, so they certainly are weaker. Pittsburgh lost a really good defensive coordinator in Lebeau. Both quarterbacks should have plenty of open receivers. The over is 32-13 in the Patriots last 45 home games. Look for plenty of offensive fireworks in the NFL season opener. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA FB Week One TOP Rated Play* The Wisconsin Badgers and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in Arlington for a week one huge clash. Wisconsin was thumped at the end of last year by Ohio State and then turned things around to upset Auburn in their bowl game. Alabama came up just a bit short against Ohio State in the playoffs. These are two teams who have a great tradition, and this game should be a good one.

When I look at these two teams, I see two teams who likely won't be able to throw the football much at all. Wisconsin won't even try to throw it much with a poor QB in Joel Stave and very few good receiving options. Alabama's QB situation isn't good at the start of the year either. Both teams have a strong offensive line though and good running backs. While Melvin Gordon Jr. is gone, Corey Clement will be good for the Badgers. Henry and Drake are two good runners for Alabama. 

Paul Chryst is the new top man at Wisconsin, and he will want to run it even more often than Gary Andersen did. Alabama has ranked in the bottom few teams in terms of pace of play for the last few years, and I think Wisconsin will this year as well. 

What does all this mean? It means that the clock will be running a lot thanks to constant running of the football. Neither team will be looking to snap it quickly at all. Both teams also have good defensive coordinators who know the opposition will be looking to run it all the time. I think we see a lot of long drives eating up a bunch of clock. This total is several points too high. I expect it to drop, which is why I'm taking this one early. Take the under big!  

*Note- This line has moved since I took this play more than a week ago. I would play for 5 stars down to 49 points and for 4 stars down to 48 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Under Radar Total* The Oklahoma Sooners have changed their system in the offseason. No more traditional looks on offense for them. Oklahoma is now going to run the Air Raid offense and hurry to the line. Baker Mayfield should be a great fit since he has experience in the Air Raid from Texas Tech. Akron's defense will do well against MAC opponents, but they'll be overmatched by Oklahoma's skill here. The Sooners should be able to put up a big score. Akron's offense should be much improved this year, and with the amount of chances I expect them to get and the fact that this score should be pretty lopsided, I think Akron puts up plenty to get us past this total. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Auburn/Louisville Totals CRUSHER* The Auburn Tigers defense is going to be much better under the leadership of Will Muschamp this year. Muschamp might not have worked out well as a head coach, but he's proven he is a great defensive mind. Louisville's defense will be much stronger than it was a year ago. Devante Fields is now a Cardinal and he immediately becomes the team's best player (he was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at TCU). Louisville likely slows this game down a bit too, because I doubt they want a shootout with Auburn. The Tigers offense will be good in the long run, but it should take some time to get things squared away with new guys at the skill positions. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Old Dominion Monarchs lost their star quarterback, and they are undergoing some big changes this year. Old Dominion's coach has gone on the record to say they will be slowing the pace down bigtime this year. In the past, ODU has been an uptempo offenses that gets as many possessions as possible. Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but ODU is working in a new starter at QB, and they'll look to eat up the play clock every time. ODU's defense was terrible last year, but I expect them to be much better this year and Eastern Michigan's offense is really bad. The slower tempo and new skill position players on offense should keep this one lower scoring than expected. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Opening Night KNOCKOUT* The FIU Golden Panthers improved a lot last year. Sure, they were only 4-8, but they went 1-11 in the previous year. Ron Turner is known as a good defensive mind, and FIU was much better defensively last year. They allowed 24.8 points per game vs. allowing 37 points per game the previous year. FIU's offense isn't very good, and they rely very heavily on being able to run the ball. While UCF has all sorts of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, their defense will be very good again this year. With UCF and FIU both running the ball a lot, the clock should tick away quickly. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NFC Championship Totals CASH* The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers meet with the winner heading to the Super Bowl in a couple weeks. Seattle's defense has been playing amazing down the stretch, but they actually weren't as good last week. I think that motivates them even more and has them ready to go last week. Remember, before last week this group had allowed 7 points or less to five of their last six opponents. That's a ridiculous run, and with the home crowd behind them this defense is scary good. 

There's no doubt that Aaron Rodgers is far less than 100% here. Rodgers hobbled all through the Packers win against Dallas, and the Packers offense wasn't the same. Expect more runs for Lacey here, but the Seahawks run defense is very good. Seattle's offense is good, but they aren't spectacular. The Seahawks haven't been driving the ball down the field consistently, rather it has been about big plays for them.

The weather will be a major factor in this game. Heavy rain is expected as well as winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour. While most pay attention to the rain, the wind is the bigger factor to watch. Both passing games will struggle to cope with that kind of wind, and that should mean a lot more running of the football and it gives the defense an edge.

With Rodgers hobbling and the nasty weather in Seattle, the under is the way I'll go here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Seattle Seahawks defense is the best in the league, and it's not even close. Seattle doesn't have a weakness on defense. This Seahawks defense is tremendous against both the run and the pass. They are playing their best football down the stretch. Seattle has held five of their last six opponents to seven points or less! Carolina's offense hasn't been consistent this year, and I don't trust Cam Newton to play well in Seattle against a defense this talented. 

The Panthers defense was ranked number one in the NFL in total defense most of last year. They started this year struggling badly, but Carolina's defense has really picked up their play of late. In their last 4 games they are allowing only 10.75 points per game. Seattle's offense is good, but they aren't excellent. They have been held down by several good defenses this year.

Both teams love to run the football, so the clock should keep ticking away in this one. This total is set low, but it's certainly not ridiculously low. I think there's a good chance both offenses struggle to find the end zone much at all in this game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the WildCard round of the NFL playoffs. Andy Dalton hasn't won a playoff game yet, and he probably won't win one here either. I don't trust Dalton a bit to start with based on his history in big games, and now that A.J. Green has been declared out for this one, the Bengals offense will have to rely on the ground game. Jeremy Hill has been very good, and Cincinnati will likely get some yards on the ground here, but it's tough to be one-dimensional in the NFL. The Colts shutout the Bengals earlier this year, and you have to think they'll be prepared for a heavy dose of the ground game here. Andrew Luck is a clutch quarterback, but his supporting cast isn't very good. The Bengals defense has been better late in the year, and they should hold their own.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in the Colts last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indianapolis between these two teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Florida State/Oregon Total DOMINATION* The Oregon Ducks and Florida State Seminoles meet in the first college football playoff game at 5 pm ET at the Rose Bowl. Oregon is going to continue their normal uptempo style of play, and Florida State's defensive flaws should continue to show as they have all year long.

Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy this year, and he absolutely deserved it. I love his decision making and he has the talent around him to put up a lot of points here. Florida State's defense has given up big plays all year long. Oregon's defense ranks 83rd in the nation in total defense. The only way they have gotten by is by forcing so many turnovers and holding opponents to field goals. Florida State has been able to pile up the points when needed this year, and they should need a bunch here. Look for a spirited effort from Winston and the Seminoles offense who believe they aren't getting enough respect.

They should light up the scoreboard in Pasadena. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Fiesta Bowl MONEY* The Arizona Wildcats and Boise State Broncos are actually relatively similar teams this year. Arizona likes to get off as many snaps as possible and win with an uptempo offense. Boise State is absolutely the same way. In the past, Boise State has had a very good defense, but that isn't the case this season. The Broncos defense has been exposed by all of the top offenses they have faced this year. The Pac-12 has looked great in bowl season thus far, and I think Arizona will put up a big number here. Boise State can score too though with Ajayi and Hedrick leading the way. This one should be a shootout. Take the over. 

*3 Star Texas Bowl Total DOMINATION* The Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks meet in an intriguing Texas Bowl matchup on Monday night. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. The weakness of both teams is quarterback play. These teams are both going to try to establish the running game, but that also plays right into the strength of their opponent. Arkansas has improved so much this year largely because of their turnaround on the defensive side of the ball. The Razorbacks run defense has been amazing down the stretch. Texas has underperformed on the defensive line the last few years, but Charlie Strong is finally getting this group to realize their potential. 

The under is 4-0 in Arkansas' last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 bowl games. The under is 5-0 in Texas' last 5 following a double digit loss at home. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oklahoma Sooners defense has been pretty consistent this year. Clemson's defense has arguably been the best defense in the nation this year. One of the biggest keys to this game is the fact that Deshaun Watson will not be playing here. Backup Cole Stoudt gets the start for Clemson. To say that Stoudt is a large drop off from Watson is a massive understatement. I have made a lot of money taking the under or fading Clemson when Stoudt is at quarterback this year. Clemson's offensive game plan will be very vanilla with Stoudt under center. The Sooners offense is at its best when running the football, but Clemson has the best defensive line in the nation. I don't expect Oklahoma to be able to establish the run game here. 

The under is 6-0 in Clemson's last 6 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a Big 12 opponent. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground last game. A 19-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*4 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The Boston College Eagles and Penn State Nittany Lions both have had several very low scoring games this year. When these two teams collide on Saturday, I see a very low scoring game. Boston College's offense is all about the running game and Tyler Murphy is the key. Penn State has zero running game, and their offensive line isn't any good. Christian Hackenberg is a decent quarterback, but he won't have time to throw here, and he doesn't have many weapons at the skill positions. Both teams like to play at a slow tempo and use up a bunch of the play clock. The under has been the way to go in recent bowl seasons, and even though this number is very low, it's low for a reason. The under is 5-0 in Boston College's last 5 vs. the Big Ten. The under is 22-7 in Boston College's last 29 non-conference games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The St. Louis Rams defense has impressed me all year long. The front seven does a great job pressuring the quarterback. Eli Manning has had trouble with holding onto the ball too long, and that won't work Sunday against this St. Louis defense. The Rams secondary is athletic and the Giants wideouts won't have as many mismatches as they normally do when they go deep. New York's defense has shown a lot of pride in recent weeks. St. Louis still has a lot of issues on the offensive side of the football. The Rams aren't very good there, and it's tough for them to sustain drives. The line movement has been toward the under here, and I think that line move is definitely justified. Look for a low scoring battle here.

The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 December games. The under is 5-0 in the Rams last 5 after gaining 90 yards rushing or less last game. The under is 22-5-1 in the Rams last 28 December games. A 32-5 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB New Mexico Bowl Total* The Utah State Aggies have been great at stopping the run in recent years. The Aggies front seven has proven that they are the type of team that can stop the run even when the other team has a strong offensive line. The strength of the UTEP team is their offensive front. UTEP really can't throw the football, so they'll try to run here. I don't think they'll have all that much success. At the same time, Utah State is starting their third string quarterback here, and the Aggies offense hasn't had much success in recent weeks. UTEP will be highly motivated in this game, and both teams are going to do a lot of running. Take the under. *Note- This line continues to move down. I would play this for 3 stars at 46 or lower. Thank you*

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Chargers defense is solid. They showed what they are made of in their loss to the Patriots last week. San Diego's defense wasn't the reason they lost that game. Rather, it was Phillip Rivers and the offense that couldn't get going. The San Diego offense has been really inconsistent of late, and Denver's defense is much improved from last year. I expect the Broncos pass rush to do a good job getting after Rivers in this one. Denver is dinged up offensively right now, and the Chargers have done a relatively good job against this Broncos offense in the past couple years. I expect a competitive game where touchdowns are tough to come by. This line is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers come into this one on a really nice run. I think the Packers are a very good team, but I also believe this is a difficult spot for them. Buffalo's defense is far better than most realize. The Bills defense showed how good they are last week with their performance against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Buffalo has a great defensive front that can create pressure without sending the blitz all that often. The secondary is also very good. Green Bay's defense has struggled this year, but Buffalo's offense has become one-dimensional and that should make things easier on them. It is expected to be a bit breezy for this one with a bit of drizzle through the game. Weather can be a major factor in games played at Buffalo. I like the defenses to control this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Bills last 5 overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bills last 6 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play of the Month* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been amazing this year. Before the season there were a lot of questions about this unit, but they have answered them emphatically thus far. Pittsburgh is averaging 427 yards per game so far this year, which easily outpaces the 391.1 per game that is the team record set back in 1979. The Steelers have scored 30 points or more in seven games this year. They are averaging 6.2 yards per play which is second best in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons offense is always tough to stop in the dome. Matt Ryan has elite receivers in Jones and White. Jones is listed as questionable this weekend, but even if he doesn't go, the Falcons have a very good third option in Harry Douglas.

Pittsburgh's defense has only 24 sacks this year. They are putting a lot of pressure on the secondary, and their secondary just isn't very good. Matt Ryan should be able to pick apart this group. At the same time, the Falcons defense isn't good at all against the run or the pass. Pittsburgh should move the ball at will. I think there will be a lot of offense in this one. Take the over big! 

*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play CRUSHER* The Army and Navy game is always a lot of fun to watch. No matter the records of these two teams, you get everything in the tank from everyone on the field here. The emotions surrounding this game are amazing. The key to this play for me is the fact that both of these teams defend the triple option every single day in practice. That makes it a lot easier to be well-prepared to stop it this weekend. The primary reason the triple option is so tough to defend for most teams is the fact that they aren't used to seeing it. These teams don't need any special preparation for this week's game. They have gotten it all year long. While neither of these defenses have looked good overall this year, the past history between these two tells me the defenses should put up a spirited effort in this one. In the past eight years, the highest scoring game between these two finished at 48 points.

The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last 8 games between these two teams. The under is 9-0 in Army's last 9 games during the month of December. The under is 6-0 in Army's last 6 after scoring 40 points or more last game. A 23-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*Note- The line here has moved down a few points since I picked this game early in the week. My number for this game was 51 points.  I would still make this a 5 Star TOP Play all the way down to 56 points. Thank you*

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots meet in what should be a terrific game Sunday night. New England is coming off a loss, and the Patriots are really tough to beat following a loss. On the other hand, San Diego has played well in recent years as an underdog and they are coming off a momentum-building win at Baltimore. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense was just a bit off last week. Before last week, the Patriots had scored 34 points or more in four straight games. San Diego has been having some issues in the secondary in recent weeks, and that should be a problem here. The Chargers have some great pass catchers and Antonio Gates is a tough matchup for the Patriots. Look for San Diego to move the ball well through the air in this game. 

The over is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 during week 14. The over is 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 after gaining less than 90 yards rushing last game. The over is 4-1 in the Patriots last 5 December games. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers have made a name for themselves in the past few years as strong defensive teams. That was the case for many years, but it isn't the case this year. Both of these defenses are way down this season. Pittsburgh's defense has gotten too old, and Brett Keisel is now out for the season, so they lose a guy who has been one of the most productive players on their roster. Cincinnati's defense has taken a big step back this year too. I think the primary reason for that is Mike Zimmer leaving and taking the head coaching job at Minnesota. Zimmer is a defensive mastermind, and the Bengals miss him badly. The number here is set too low because of the past history of these teams. Both offenses have big play ability. 

The over is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 December games. The over is 6-0 in the Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the Steelers last 9 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. An 18-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Lions defense is still being underrated by many. This defense has proven week after week they are one of the very best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's defense has also proven on a consistent basis that they aren't any good. Tampa Bay put up only 13 points in each of their last two games, and that was against two subpar defenses. It gets much tougher here. I have been impressed with the fight in the Tampa Bay defense. This unit has gotten significantly better over the course of the season. I see a comfortable win for the Lions as their defense dominates.

The under is 6-0 in Tampa Bay's last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay's last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after running for less than 90 yards last game. The under is 6-0 in the Lions last 6 after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Lions last 4 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing last game. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Patriots/Packers Total DOMINATION* The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers get together in what should be a tremendous game late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers will be all the storylines, and you can't blame the media for headlining the game with those two. They are two of the very best at their position, and they are guys who usually rise to the occasion in games like this one. The New England offense has really impressed me in recent weeks. New England can do it through the air or on the ground. The offensive line is much improved too. Green Bay's defense is still a major question mark for me. The Packers offense was a little disappointing early this year, but they are firing on all cylinders now. Both of these teams play much at a much faster tempo than the league average, and that will lead to more possessions in this game. I see this as a back and forth type of game where both offenses have a bunch of big plays. 

The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 on grass. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 7-1 in the Packers last 8 overall. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The weather should be a major factor in this game. The forecast calls for an early high temperature of 15 degrees dropping to nine degrees by the end of the game. Carolina certainly isn't used to that kind of temperature, and I think that hurts their offense more than the defense. The wind is also going to play a major role here. The wind is expected to be about 20 miles per hour throughout this one, which should make both offenses hesitant to throw it. With a lot of running, we'll see the clock consistently moving. The defenses should be able to key in on the run after a while here too. Minnesota's defense is one of the most improved in the league under the guidance of Mike Zimmer. Look for a low scoring affair. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The North Carolina Tar Heels offense has been great all year. The only reason the Tar Heels have been considered a disappointment this year has been their brutal defense. Just about everyone has done whatever they want against this defense. North Carolina State has a play maker at quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. The Wolfpack defense is going to struggle to get off the field here, but the offense should be able to pile up the points. This has been a highly competitive and high scoring series in the past few years. I think both of those trends continue this weekend. I made this total 75 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Boston College Eagles have surprised a lot of people this year. Steve Addazio deserves a ton of credit for that. Boston College has really bought into Addazio's system, and the Eagles have fought hard all season long. The defense is pretty good against both the run and the pass. Syracuse's offense is downright awful right now. They have virtually no running game, and the passing game is even worse. The Orange do have a solid defense that keeps them in most games. Boston College and Syracuse will both be doing a lot of running in this one, so we'll see the clock keep on ticking away.

The under is 5-0 in Syracuse's last 5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the ACC. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by 20 points or more. The under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Indiana Hoosiers and Purdue Boilermakers have a history of high scoring affairs against each other. Indiana's defense is one of the worst in the nation. Purdue is improved from last year, but the main place they have improved is on the offensive end. The Boilermakers defense gives up big plays very frequently, and I expect Tevin Coleman to have a big day here. Both of these teams like to snap the ball quickly, so we should see both teams get a lot of possessions in this one. The weather shouldn't be bad on Saturday in Indiana, and that helps the over as well. Close game here with both offenses seeing lots of success. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play 100% CRUSHER* The UTSA Roadrunners and North Texas Mean Green have both been teams I have played the under on successfully all season. I've had this game circled for a while. These are two offensively challenged teams. When they get together, I expect a very low scoring game. In fact, I think there is a good chance the winner of this game won't top 20 points. UTSA has gotten awful quarterback play all year. It's likely that no team has had worse play from the quarterback position over the course of the season. North Texas' defense isn't particularly good, but they'll likely look good when going against this Roadrunners offense. North Texas can only run the ball, if they are forced to throw they are in real trouble. The UTSA defense is actually quite good, and they should do a good job stopping the run.

The under is 7-0 in UTSA's last 7 home games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss by 20 points or more. A 27-0 angle. Take the under big! *Note- This line has moved down since I originally played it early in the week. I would play this for 5 stars down to 41 points and for 4 stars down to 39 points. Thank you.**

*4 Star CFB Friday FEAST* The Missouri Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks get together in an underrated showdown on Friday. This is a game I'm really looking forward to, and there is a lot on the line here. Missouri will represent the SEC East in the SEC title game with a win here. Arkansas has pitched two consecutive shutouts against LSU and Ole Miss at home. The Razorbacks defense is arguably the most improved in the nation this year. Maty Mauk and the Missouri offense have been a big disappointment. The Tigers are in this position because of a very good defense and a lot of timely turnovers. Arkansas runs the ball on nearly every down, and Missouri is running it most of the time as well. A lot of running clock in this game. I see a close game all the way and the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA Friday Early Bird Special* The Marshall Thundering Herd were passed by the Boise State Broncos in the most recent Playoff rankings. Marshall is fighting to become the top ranked team outside the power five conferences. What does that mean Marshall needs to do? They need to pick up some major style points. Marshall absolutely needs to run up the score at any chance they can. Marshall gets a chance to do that this weekend against one of the worst defenses in the nation. Western Kentucky has allowed 42 points or more on six occasions already this year! The Hilltoppers are going to get gashed by this Marshall offense on the ground and Rakeem Cato will have a monster day through the air. The Hilltoppers do have a very good passing attack with Brandon Doughty at the helm. Doughty and the Hilltoppers have scored on nearly everyone, and I think they'll put up their fair share here too. 

The over is 4-0-1 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air last game. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 8-1 in Marshall's last 9 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 15-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Tampa Bay Bucs and Chicago Bears meet at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. The conditions are going to be ugly for this one. There is a 100 percent chance of rain according to current forecasts, and the wind is expected to be 20 mph blowing off of Lake Michigan. Anyone who has been to Chicago knows that the winds can be very tough to deal with here. Both of these teams have been relying more on their passing attacks lately, but I don't expect those to work well in this weather. The field will be a total mess as well with heavy rain throughout. Neither of these offenses has proven to be all that good to start with, and with an ugly field and a heavy wind it will make it much tougher to score. 

The under is 4-0 in the Bucs last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games played on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in November. A 16-0 angle. 

Look for a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Nevada Wolfpack offense has gradually gotten better throughout the course of the year. Cody Fajardo is a real star for Nevada, and he's playing in the final home game of his career here. Fresno State's defense hasn't slowed down anyone all year, and it's hard to see them slowing down Nevada's balanced attack here. While Nevada's defense appeared improved earlier this year, the Wolf Pack defense has been awful in recent weeks. Fresno State still has a lot of talent on the offensive end. The Bulldogs should be able to make some big plays on offense here. Look for a shootout in this rivalry game. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boise State Broncos offense has been tremendous this year, but their defense is way down from the level they have been at in recent years. Boise State's defense has given up at least 27 points in six straight games. Wyoming isn't particularly good on offense, but the Cowboys offense has been much better on their home field. Boise State has scored 50 points or more on offense in three of their last five games. They might not get there in this one, but if they get into the 40's we have a very good shot of cashing this play.

The over is 5-0 in Boise State's last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a straight up win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground. The over is 4-0 in Wyoming's last 4 following a loss. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star USC/UCLA Top Play Total* The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans are bitter rivals. Both of these teams have had this game circled for a very long time. USC has gotten some tremendous quarterback play from Cody Kessler this year. Kessler has thrown 29 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he has completed 70.2% of his passes. Brett Hundley has been running the ball more often of late, and his dual threat ability makes this Bruins offense much better. Two very good quarterbacks should put on a show in this one. The UCLA defense has been a big disappointment this year, and I expect USC to put up a nice number against them. On the other hand, USC's secondary has had significant problems this year and Hundley is capable of making big plays with his arm as well. High scoring back and forth game here. Take the over big! 

*Note- The line has moved up here since I picked this on Tuesday evening- I would play this for 5 stars up to 63 points. 4 stars up to 65 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Arkansas Razorbacks defense is one of the most improved in the nation. Arkansas just shutout a pretty decent LSU team last weekend. Bret Bielema's group only allowed 14 points against the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Ole Miss has been one of the top defenses in the nation all year long. The Rebels offense has let them down in some big games, and that is why they have lost twice. Arkansas loves to run the football, but I think they'll have a hard time running it against a Ole Miss defense that knows the run is coming. I don't trust Bo Wallace to make big plays for the Rebels, and I see this being a very close low scoring affair. Take the under. 

*3 Star ACC Total Takedown* The Pittsburgh Panthers have almost no passing game. The Syracuse Orange have virtually no passing game. Pittsburgh plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the nation. The Panthers run the play clock all the way down and hand it off nearly every time. That definitely helps an under since it reduces the number of times each offense will get the ball. Syracuse's offense has been bad all year, but the Orange have a good defense. They should be able to at least slow down the Panthers running attack. Syracuse's play calling has been very conservative lately with young quarterbacks under center. This looks like a game where both teams keep it simple and it turns into an ugly low scoring game with a bunch of field goals. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under the Radar Total* The North Texas Mean Green have some major problems on offense. They have essentially zero success throwing the football, so if the running game isn't working they are done. FIU has a really bad offense, but they are much improved on defense. This is an FIU defense that definitely has shown they can stop the run, and I see them forcing North Texas to try to beat them through the air. North Texas is still decent on the defensive end, and this FIU team has gotten really bad quarterback play all year. This is going to be an extremely ugly game. I can't imagine anyone wanting to watch this one, but I do like both defenses to hold up their end and keep this game low scoring. Take the under big! 

*Note- This line has moved since I selected it on Tuesday- I would play it for 5 stars down to 48 and for 4 stars down to 46. Thank you.*

*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Colorado State Rams have quietly put together a really nice year. Jim McElwain is doing a great job with this team. He is a terrific offensive mind, and Colorado State has a nice balanced attack. I think this is one of the most underrated offenses in the nation. New Mexico has one of the very worst defenses in the country. The Lobos have given up 499 yards per game this year. New Mexico has allowed 277 yards per game on the ground alone. New Mexico is giving up 34.3 points per game. New Mexico allowed 60 points when they played Boise State this year.

While New Mexico is just brutal on defense, they have been able to run the football on nearly everyone. They are averaging 319 yards per game on the ground. Colorado State's defense is only mediocre. Last year when these two teams got together, the final was 66-42. Both teams had more than 500 yards of total offense in that one. Take the over big here! 

*Note- This line has moved since I first selected it on Tuesday evening. I would play this for 5 stars all the way up to 68.5 and for 4 stars up to 70 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Hidden GEM Total* The Old Dominion Monarchs have a tremendous offense with Taylor Heinecke at quarterback. This Monarchs offense has been able to move the football against every single team they have played against this year. Why haven't they won more games? Old Dominion has an absolutely awful defense. The Monarchs defense is so bad that the head coach has started going for it on most fourth downs on offense because he knows they aren't going to stop the opponent enough times to win. The only way ODU has a chance is to outscore the opposition. Louisiana Tech has a good offense led by Sokol at quarterback and Dixon at running back. They should slice up the ODU defense.

The over is 4-0 in ODU's last 4 games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 November games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing more than 200 yards on the ground. The over is 3-0-1 in LA Tech's last 4 following an ATS win. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will meet late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. The temperature will slide below 20 degrees as this game moves along. The tendency for the public is to think that cold weather means the game will finish under the posted total, but that hasn't proven true in the past ten years. Since 2004, 65 percent of games played at a temperature of 20 degrees or lower have finished over the posted total. Philadelphia plays with a very quick tempo and they'll get off a bunch of snaps. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense are now in full stride, and the Eagles secondary is still very vulnerable. Mark Sanchez is a nice fit in the Chip Kelly system and McCoy should have a good game here. I love both of these offenses and neither defense impresses me. 

The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games following a Monday nighter. The over is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. The over is 7-0 in the Packers last 7 following a win by 14 points or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The UTEP Miners have found a formula that is helping them excel. Sean Kugler realized that the team's old strategy of throwing it every down and trying to outscore the opposition was failing miserably, so he changed the way UTEP would play. The Miners now play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. They also run the ball a bunch. They attempt to shorten the game and take pressure off their defense. It has worked very well. North Texas has a miserable offense this year. Dan McCarney's team just doesn't have enough good skill position players. The Mean Green can hold their own on defense. Both teams should run the ball a lot here. I made this total 50 points, so I clearly see a lot of value in this one. North Texas should struggle to score very much, and UTEP will have some long methodical drives. Take the under big here! 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Utah State Aggies are playing with their string quarterback right now. He is doing a decent job holding things together for the team, but he certainly isn't as productive as someone like Keeton or Garretson would be under center. New Mexico has an excellent running game, but the Lobos are awful at throwing the football. The problem for them in this game is Utah State excels at stopping the run. The Aggies know that New Mexico can't throw it, and they will be ready to shut down this Lobos running game. Utah State should be content to kill the clock late after grabbing a nice lead early on here. A lot of moving clock in this one. This total is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Navy Midshipmen and the Georgia Southern Eagles both run the triple option. It is pretty rare to find a game with two triple option teams squaring off against each other, but that's what we have here. I love playing the under in situations like this because these defenses see the triple option every day in practice. The biggest advantage to running the triple option is generally that the opposition never gets to see it so they struggle to prep for it in just a week or two. In this case the opposing defense sees it all the time and they should be much better at slowing it down than the average team. Having said that, both of those teams have very good quarterbacks who are going to make some big plays. There will be points scored here, but I don't think it gets into the 60's. With both teams running almost every play, the clock will tick away quickly. Expect very long drives that eat up a bunch of time. Take the under big in this one! 

*5 Star TOP Play Big Ten Total* The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack is non existent right now. Indiana had absolutely no depth at quarterback to start the season, and now they are starting their third string quarterback. Zander Diamont has completed less than than 50 percent of his passes, and he has thrown no touchdowns and two picks. Rutgers' defense isn't tremendous, but they have played much better at home. They know Indiana has to run here, so they'll stack up the box. The Rutgers offense has been struggling of late. Gary Nova isn't playing at 100 percent, and that is slowing things down. Indiana used to be a team that would push the tempo in a big way, but they don't do that nearly as much with a freshman third string quarterback under center. Rutgers plays very slowly and we should see a bunch of running clock here. Take the under big! 

*5 Star TOP Play CRUSHER* The Umass Minutemen really found a gem in quarterback Blake Frohnapfel. He tranferred in from Marshall, and he has been tremendous for the Minutemen. Frohnapfel has 23 touchdowns and has revived an offense that was dreadful the past couple years. UMass is averaging 31 points per game this year. The Minutemen still have one of the worst defenses in the nation though, so they often play in shootouts. UMass allows 35 points per game and their defense is rated number 100 or worse (out of 128) in every major defensive category. Ball State's offense is improved in the last few games with Milas at quarterback. The Cardinals defense has been getting hurt by big plays all year. Both of these teams like to play quickly, so I expect a lot of possessions for both teams. 

The over is 6-0-1 in UMass' last 7 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after running for 100 yards or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more of total offense last game. A 15-0 angle. Take the over big! *Note- This is a 5 Star TOP Play for me all the way up to 62 points. This is a 4 star play for me up to 65 points. It would be 3 stars at 65.5 or higher. Thank you.*

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Buffalo Bills had a bye week last week. The defense has gotten healthier and they should be ready for a strong effort. Buffalo is eighth in the NFL in total defense, and I consider this Bills defense one of the most underrated units in the NFL. On offense, Buffalo is totally one-dimensional now without Spiller or Jackson in the backfield. Kyle Orton isn't a bad quarterback, but he's certainly not a special one either. The Chiefs have the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL, and Kansas City is going to be ready for the throw here. The Chiefs offense is far from spectacular, and they just do what they have to do to squeak out wins. Kansas City will run the ball a lot here, which keeps the clock moving. Buffalo's defensive front is very strong. These defenses are both excellent. Last year's game finished at 36, and another game in the high 30's is what I see here.

The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs last 4 games. The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs last 7 November games. The under is 4-1 in the Bills last 5 home games. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The New Mexico State Aggies defense ranks dead last in the nation when it comes to stopping the run. New Mexico State is allowing an eye-popping 325 yards per game on the ground! That's just ridiculous, and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns averaged 6.5 yards per carry last year in the meeting between these two. Lafayette should rumble all over them with their running game in this one as well. New Mexico State's offense put up 35 points last year against Lafayette, and while it might be hard for them to reach that number here, they should score plenty against a Lafayette defense that isn't good. Expect lots of big plays from both teams in this game.

The over is 4-0 in Lafayette's last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The over is 7-0 in New Mexico State's last 7 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air last game. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 after allowing 170 yards passing or less last game. The over is 10-1 in the Aggies last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. A 32-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Alabama/LSU Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers are similar teams in terms of style. Both teams like to play slowly and win with their strong defense. Alabama plays at a slower pace than any other power conference team in the entire nation. LSU's offense really can't throw the football much at all this year, and the Tigers are totally reliant on the running game. Alabama's rushing defense is ranked second in the nation when it comes to stopping the run allowing only 77.6 yards per game. LSU is going to have to run the football to score many points here, and I don't think they'll be able to do it. LSU's defense struggled early in the year, but the Tigers are very talented on the defensive end and they are playing much better of late. This shapes up to be a game where both teams look to run the ball often, which will keep the clock rolling. A low scoring hard hitting game. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Louisville Cardinals defense played a bad second half last week against Florida State, and that cost them an upset victory. Fortunately for them, they won't have to face an offense the caliber of Florida State this week. Louisville's defense is still one of the best in the country. The Boston College Eagles defense is playing really hard for Steve Addazio, and I think you have to be impressed with the job he is doing with this team. Both of these teams struggle throwing the ball. There should be a bunch of running in this game. The strength of both defenses is stopping the run. I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see several points of value on this play.

The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total DOMINATION* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been pitiful of late. Michigan's offense has been awful all year long. Don't let Michigan's decent offensive performance last week fool you. That was against an Indiana defense that is among the worst in the nation. Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and that's the only reason the Wildcats have been able to hang around in most of their games. Michigan's defense is ninth in the nation in total defense. That will probably surprise a lot of people to see that, but it just shows how poor their offense has been. The Wolverines defense is fine, but the offense is in lots of trouble. Last year when these two met, there were a grand total of 18 points scored in regulation (all field goals). Expect another ugly game here. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Takedown* The Arizona State Sun Devils defense isn't very good. They have looked better in recent weeks, but that was against teams that don't have a good offense. It's one to slow down Utah (one-dimensional), Washington (were without their starting quarterback), and Stanford (poor offensively this year), but it's going to be a whole different thing to try to slow down the Notre Dame offense. Everett Golson has this offense moving well against everyone. I see no reason to believe Arizona State will slow them down. The Notre Dame defense looked good early in the year, but they have been exposed of late. In their past three games they have allowed 43, 31, and 39 points in their last three games. Taylor Kelly is getting healthier and the Sun Devils have plenty of weapons offensively. Last year's game finished 37-34, and I see a similar type of game here. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Syracuse Orange have been really bad on offense all year, and now they are going to have a third string quarterback starting in this one. I don't think that will help anything here. Duke is going to load up the box and force Syracuse to have to throw it, and they likely won't be able to. While the Syracuse offense is in a lot of trouble here, the Orange have been excellent on the defensive end. The strength of the Syracuse defense is their front seven, and that's very big for the under here since Duke is primarily a running team. Duke isn't as good as their record would indicate, and I don't think they'll run away with this one. I had this total set at 47 points. Take the under in this contest. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Golden Gophers overachieve every single year. Why are they able to do that so consistently? Jerry Kill is a really good coach, and the coaching staff around him is great at getting the most out of the talent they have. Iowa's defense seems to reload and be solid against the run every single year. The Minnesota Golden Gophers absolutely cannot throw the football, and Iowa's defensive coaches know that. They are going to load the box and make it really hard to run the ball. Iowa's physicality in the defensive front seven is going to be tough for Minnesota to match. Iowa's offense has looked better of late, but they haven't played all that well on the road in the past couple seasons. Minnesota's defense always plays hard. 

The under is 5-0 in the Hawkeyes last 5 games following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 5-0 in Minnesota's last 5 after giving up 170 yards or less in the passing game. The under is 4-0 in Minnesota's last 4 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in the Gophers last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense that was a mess when these two teams met earlier this year is now firing on all cylinders. Big Ben and his solid group of wide receivers will make plenty of plays in this one. The Steelers running game has been better than expected this year as well. Joe Flacco is playing some terrific football of late, and the Ravens offense is playing at a different pace now than they have in the past. Baltimore ranks sixth in the NFL in tempo, so they are getting off a lot of snaps. I see value in this number because of the past history of these teams. When you think of Steelers vs. Ravens you think defense and lots of hard hits. These defenses aren't what they used to be, and both of the offenses are better. The winner of this game is going to have to put up a solid amount of points. 

The over is 4-0 in the Ravens last 4 games on grass. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Conference USA Total* The UTEP Miners have changed their stripes in a big way this year. What's different about this team? It's a team that used to have a ton of high scoring games because of a fast tempo and a horrible defense. Their defense still isn't very good, although they did pitch a shutout last week, but UTEP is now slowing the game down in a big way. UTEP is using up the play clock every single time. The Miners are playing at the slowest pace of any team in FBS right now. The oddsmakers are struggling to react to that change from a team that is off the radar of many. For a few more games we should be able to get value on the under. Southern Miss is a one-dimensional offense, and they won't be able to take advantage of UTEP's weak run defense. Take the under. 

*3 CFB Totals Takedown* The San Jose State Spartans defense looked really bad last weekend at Navy. San Jose State has played pretty well at home on defense, but this Colorado State offense is much better than the offenses they have been up against. It's one thing to slow down UNLV, but it's a whole different thing to stop the well-balanced Colorado State offense. The Rams can run it or throw it equally well, and they have an improved offensive line. San Jose State is getting solid production out of Gray, and Colorado State's defense has given up a lot of points in the second half of games this year. This number is set too low. I had this number at 59. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Cash* The UNLV Rebels defense is one of the worst in the nation. In fact, they are 124th in the nation out of 128 in total defense. They are giving up 525 yards of total offense per game. Last year, New Mexico rolled up 581 yards of offense in a 56-42 loss to UNLV. The Lobos offense is great at running the football, and UNLV can't stop the run. The Lobos aren't able to throw it, but they won't need to against the Rebels. UNLV's offense has been inconsistent this year, but playing against a slow defense like New Mexico should allow UNLV's speedsters at the skill positions to have another big game. I made this line 65 points. Take the over.

*Note- This line has moved up significantly since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this for 4 stars up to 59. I would play it for 3 stars up to 62. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Idaho Vandals and Arkansas State Red Wolves both like to play fast. These are teams that want to get off as many snaps as possible. Arkansas State has moved the ball against just about everyone they have played, and they played a tough non-conference schedule. Idaho's defense is one of the worst in the nation. The Vandals are unlikely to be able to slow down Kneighten and this Red Wolves attack. Linehan has done a good job for Idaho at quarterback and Arkansas State's defense isn't even close to as good as they have been in the past couple years. Look for lots of scoring opportunities for both teams. Take the over.

*Note- This line has moved up significantly since I posted this pick on Tuesday- I would play this for 4 stars up to 65 and for 3 stars up to 68 points. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The USC Trojans have a totally different team this year than they did last season. Steve Sarkisian has this team playing much faster on the offensive end. Cody Kessler is doing a great job for this team at the quarterback spot. In fact, I think Kessler has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country so far this year. Kessler is completing 70 percent of his passes, and he has thrown 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ranked 113th out of 128 FBS teams in pass defense. The Trojans are going to put up a lot of points. At the same time, the Washington State offense isn't the reason this team is 2-6. The Cougars are 7th in the nation in total offense and first in the nation in passing yards per game at 490 passing yards per contest. USC is a bit weaker in the secondary this year than normal. Both teams like to play fast and there will be a bunch of passes thrown in this game.

The over is 5-0 in the Cougars last 5 following a double digit home loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 450 total yards or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the Cougars last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in the Trojans last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two at Washington State. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Missouri Tigers offense has been one of the most disappointing in the nation. Missouri simply can't get the passing game going, so opposing defenses are loading the box and making it tough for the Tigers to run the football. Kentucky's defense is much better than they have been in the past, and they have been able to handle most teams running games. The Wildcats offense looked good in the non-conference action, but against SEC defenses, and especially on the road, they have been poor. Missouri leads the SEC in sacks and the Kentucky offensive line will struggle to keep this group away from Towles. I don't expect to see much scoring here. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Georgia Bulldogs have really played well this year. They put up a poor performance in South Carolina and it cost them, but I've been really impressed with the way they have responded to that loss. Georgia has elevated their level of play in a big way on the defensive end. The Bulldogs stop the run well. Florida's offense is a total mess right now, and the only thing the Gators can do is run it. I don't think any of the Gators QB's can throw it effectively against Georgia. The Bulldogs offense is run heavy, and why wouldn't they be? Even without Gurley, Georgia has a ton of talented running backs and Chubb has been tremendous for them. Both teams will run the ball a bunch here. Florida's defense has been excellent in every game other than the Alabama game. This game means a lot to both teams. Look for a lot of defense in this one. Take the under big! 

*Note- This line has moved in a big way since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this one for 5 Stars down to 50, for 4 stars down to 48, and for 3 stars down to 46. Thank you*

*3 Star CFB ACC Total Value* The Syracuse Orange have some major problems on offense right. That has overshadowed some really nice performances by the defense so far this year. Last week's 16-6 loss at Clemson was a good example of that. I played the under in that one and cashed in, and I'm going to take the under again. NC State's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and the Wolfpack defense is improved. I don't think either of these offenses have what it takes to put together consistent long drives in this game. Expect a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under.

*Note- This line has moved against me- I would play this one for 4 stars at 51 points or higher. Thank you.*

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Cardinals secondary ranks second to last in the NFL in pass defense so far this year. With the offensive line starting to play better (and get healthy) Nick Foles' production should continue to improve in the passing game for Philadelphia. McCoy is too good of a runner to be completely shut down in the long run. The Eagles defense has been opportunistic, and they have created a bunch of scores on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's defense still isn't very good overall though, and the Eagles will have trouble slowing down this Arizona offense. The Eagles don't have the secondary to stop Carson Palmer and the Cardinals talented wide receivers. Both teams score plenty in this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Utah Utes and USC Trojans meet in what should be a really good game Saturday night in Utah. One thing most people forget about the Utah Utes is they have a tremendous home field advantage thanks to the elevation they play at. USC's weakness is their lack of depth. I think the Trojans offense will be far less effective than they have been in recent weeks in the elevation here. Utah's offense has transformed in a way that means they run the ball nearly every down. The Utes have been getting such poor play from their quarterbacks that this team is just handing it off to Booker constantly. That helps the total in a couple ways. Number one it means the clock keeps rolling here. Number two it plays into the strength of the USC defense which is stopping the run. I think this game is much lower scoring than most expect.

The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 conference games. The under is 8-1-1 in USC's last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 overall. The under is 7-1-1 in Utah's last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-2 angle. Take the under big. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Month* The Ohio State Buckeyes have scored at least 50 points in four straight games. I'm not sure the Buckeyes can get to 50 points against a decent Penn State defense, but I think they can get a lot closer than most believe. J.T. Barrett has been absolutely amazing quarterbacking this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes offense is having play makers step up around him as well. They have talent at the wide receiver position and they have two very good tight ends. The Buckeyes have found a very good runner in Ezekiel Elliot. Ohio State is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. The Buckeyes defense still has a long ways to go though. Hackenberg and the Nittany Lions should break some big plays against a secondary that still isn't very good. I expect Ohio State to jump out to a lead and keep their foot on the gas. The Nittany Lions score plenty to push this one over.

The over is 5-0 in the Buckeyes last 5 overall. The over is 6-0 in the Buckeyes last 6 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 20 points or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 40 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a win by 20 points or more. A 33-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Total of the Month 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Clemson Tigers offense isn't the same without DeShaun Watson under center. I really think Watson is going to be a tremendous player in this offense, but he's out with a broken hand now. Cole Stoudt is the man getting the start here, and Stoudt is dinged up himself. Behind Stoudt, the Clemson offense has struggled to get going. Syracuse isn't any good on offense, and the Clemson defense is one of the best in the country. Look for the Tigers defensive line to flex their muscles in this one. Clemson also lost their top running back last week, so the Tigers have some real issues on offense. I see a defensive struggle here.

The under is 4-0 in Clemson's last 4 games after giving up less than 20 points. The under is 6-0 in Clemson's last 6 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 275 yards or less. The under is 7-0 in Clemson's last 7 after gaining 125 yards or less on the ground in 2 straight games. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total Value* This is the perfect combination of two teams who throw the ball nearly every play and two secondaries who are just dreadful when it comes to defending the pass. Doughty is having a tremendous season under Coach Brohm at Western Kentucky and this Old Dominion defense may be the worst he has faced all year. Heinecke is a star in the making for ODU and the NFL scouts really like him a lot. Both of these teams play very fast and there are going to be a bunch of possessions in this game. Look for this one to get into the 80's as both teams light up the scoreboard. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Toledo Rockets and UMass Minutemen both like to air it out early and often. Neither team is any good at defending the pass. The Minutemen have gotten a major boost from transfer quarterback Blake Frohnapfel who has been far better than most expected. UMass has been getting better and better offensively every week. This is a team that was awful offensively last year and the oddsmakers are having a hard time catching up to their new style of play. Toledo's offense is way too quick and athletic for a poor UMass defense. The Rockets had a week off before this game and their offense should be clicking with some key injured players getting back in the lineup. Bombs away in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen run the football nearly every down, and San Jose State likes to run the football as well. I like playing unders with teams that run it this often because the clock keeps ticking and there are far fewer plays. San Jose State's offense took a big hit when their best running back was suspended indefinitely this week. The Spartans defense has been pretty good against the run and they have played a triple option team a lot in recent years so this is more familiar to them. Navy's Keenan Reynolds is banged up and that is slowing down this Midshipmen offense. The under is 8-1 in Navy's last 9 after scoring 40 points or more. The under is 4-0 in SJ State's last 4 on turf. A 12-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total DOMINATION* The Boise State Broncos and BYU Cougars both like to play at a quick tempo. That means we'll see plenty of snaps in this one, which is obviously a big boost for an over play. The posted total here comes in several points below where I expected it. These two teams combined for 967 yards of total offense when they met last year. Both defenses are significantly worse than they were last season. Grant Hedrick and the Boise State offense have put up 51 and 37 points in the last two games. Christian Stewart is doing a solid job at quarterback for BYU. The Cougars topped 600 yards in a 42-35 loss to Nevada last week. Both of these teams are turnover prone, and a defensive score or two here wouldn't be a big surprise. The public perception of these two teams as strong defenses is no longer the case. That's giving us value on the over. The over is 4-0 in BYU's last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in Boise State's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over big! 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears have a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They covered them up well last week in Atlanta, but I don't think they'll be able to keep the Dolphins down that well. The Bears offense is rolling right now. Jay Cutler is finally getting comfortable in this offense, and his wideouts will have some major height advantages on the Dolphins smaller corners. It might also surprise you to learn that the team who is playing second fastest from a tempo perspective so far this year is the Miami Dolphins (behind only the Eagles with Chip Kelly's fast paced attack). I expected this total to be around 52 points, and finding four points of value in the NFL is difficult. Take the over.