*5 Star CFB TOP Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini don't know yet if Wes Lunt is going to play here. Illinois hasn't had much success on offense with him, but the drop off is large when he isn't playing as well.

The Illinois defense should improve with Lovie Smith and a good defensive coordinator. The Rutgers offense scored 0 points on Ohio State and 0 on Michigan. Back to back shutouts! Rutgers lost their best offensive player (Grant) a couple weeks ago, and this team is totally lost on offense.

I had this one lined at 47 points, and I see a bunch of value here. Neither team plays very fast, and both offenses are extremely inefficient. I see a sloppy game all the way that stays well below the posted total. Take the under big. 

*This line has moved the last couple days. I recommend playing this as a top rated play as low as 51, and for 4 stars below that level. Thank you*

*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the Week* The Purdue Boilermakers are good at turning things into a high scoring game. Why? They are much improved on offense, and they should be able to run the ball against an Iowa defensive front that is actually allowing more than 4 yards per carry this year. 

Purdue also has a terrible defense that gives up a bunch of big plays. Beathard is a good quarterback for Iowa, and the Hawkeyes have a strong offensive line that will dominate Purdue's defensive front.

Purdue is pushing the tempo and playing about as fast as anyone in the Big Ten right now. The Boilermakers have consistently turned the ball over in places where the opposition gets quick scores, and I think that happens again in this one.

Iowa's defense isn't as strong as normal, and Purdue's offense is better than normal. I had this total lined at 58 points. Take the over big. 

*This line has moved the last couple days. I recommend a top rated play up to 53 points, and a 4 star rating at a higher level than that. Thank you*

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers meet in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams have quarterbacks fully capable of slinging it around and I see a lot of reasons to believe they will both have big games on Sunday.

Phillip Rivers has always been an above average quarterback in the NFL. It has just been a question of the talent around him, most specifically what is going on in front of him on the offensive line. The offensive front is actually healthier than normal for San Diego, and Rivers has had some big games through the air already. 

The big problem for San Diego is their secondary. The Chargers will be without a starting safety and their top two cornerbacks for this game. Oakland has good weapons on the outside, and Derek Carr should have a field day here. 

At the same time, Oakland is missing safety Nate Allen as well. Rivers is likely to be able to pick apart this Raiders secondary. 

Oakland is allowing more passing yards per game than any other team in the NFL. San Diego is 6th worst in the league in that measure. 

The over is 6-0 in the last 6 in a game played by any team in either the AFC West or NFC West in their first game home following a 2 or more game road trip on the East coast. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 30 points or more. The over is 3-0-1 in the Raiders last 4 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* We've gotten a discount here because of Hurricane Matthew. Matthew was expected to head north toward Baltimore, but the track of the hurricane has changed significantly in the past day. Now, the forecast for Baltimore is sunny on Sunday afternoon. 

The line has dropped 1.5 points due to the expected bad weather, and now we are getting a value. I liked the over before the line drop, but wanted to wait on the weather before playing this. Now, I expect this line to climb back up toward gametime on Sunday.

Washington's defense is about as bad as you'll find in the NFL. Opponents are rushing for 4.88 yards per carry against them, and the Redskins secondary has been beaten deep consistently. Joe Flacco loves to throw the deep ball, and this is an opponent he should be able to exploit. 

Baltimore's defense didn't look very good against the Raiders last weekend. The Ravens hadn't played a good offense all year until last weekend. Washington isn't a great offense, but they are better on offense than the Browns, Bills, and Jaguars (the Ravens first 3 opponents). 

The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't impressed me this year. It really doesn't make sense that the team has decided to go to a pro style offense where they run it as often as possible and slow the game down. This is exactly the opposite of what Marcus Mariota was used to running in college. Now, Mariota is clearly regressing, and for some reason people seem surprised. This isn't a good offense for Mariota.

Ryan Tannehill isn't to be trusted either, and the Dolphins offense in general has been really poor this year. Their performance against the Bengals last time out was miserable. They literally got nothing in that game after an early 74 yard touchdown pass. Miami had 8 first downs in that game.

Tennessee is slowing the pace down more than any other team in the NFL so far this year. It's also important to note that 15 mph winds are expected during this game, which is a negative for scoring. 

The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Miami. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings defense is dominating. Mike Zimmer is a tremendous head coach who still doesn't get enough credit. Minnesota is going to bring a good effort on the defensive end every single game. 

Houston's offense doesn't impress at this point, because I don't know what I'll get from Brock Osweiler. The Texans have good pieces at the wide receiver spots, but their offensive line is questionable and their running game is subpar now. Don't expect them to have much success here.

Even without J.J. Watt, this Houston Texans defense is very good. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in yards per carry so far this year. Sam Bradford has been very good in his role, but he'll be pressured a lot in this game by the Texans strong defensive front. 

Houston is playing at the 17th fastest pace in the NFL and Minnesota is 28th out of 32 teams. Both defenses have the upper hand.

The under is 5-0 in the Texans last 5 games following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS cover. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after allowing 90 yards or less on the ground. The under is 3-0 in the Vikings last 3 games. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are playing at a significantly slower pace of late under Mark Richt. Richt's teams have always played at a methodical pace, and the Hurricanes are turning into that team right now. Miami ranks in the bottom 30 teams in the country in tempo. 

Florida State is just one spot above Miami in my tempo rankings (31st slowest in the country). The Seminoles offense has been inconsistent this year. Francois is a very good long term quarterback, but this is a difficult situation for a youngster. 

Dalvin Cook is a great back, but Miami ranks tenth in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 2.60 yards per carry. Florida State's offensive line isn't likely to be able to get a good push against Miami. 

The Florida State defense has been poor this year. They have allowed too many big plays in the passing game. Still, this defense has too many guys who are talented to be terrible all year long. 

Here's a case where we get two teams who play slowly and we still see a total of 65.5. It's too high. I think this is a game that is played to the high 50's. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks have played two tough games against each other the last two years. Last year, Alabama won 27-14 in Alabama. Two years ago, the Crimson Tide won 14-13 in Arkansas. 

Two years ago there were only 562 total yards of offense when these two played against each other. Last year, there were only 616 total yards of offense when they met. This has usually been a defensive battle.

I think we see a lot of defense again here. The Crimson Tide defense is excellent, and they stop the run very well. Arkansas is always a run first team, and I don't see Bama's defense giving up too much on the ground. 

Alabama's offense is good, but it isn't yet great. Arkansas has a veteran defense that should be able to at least slow them down. 

Arkansas plays at the fifth slowest tempo of anyone in the country. Alabama ranks among the bottom quarter of teams in tempo as well.

Take the under. 

*Note- The market has moved this number lower since I placed my bet early in the week, but I would still play this for the same rating down to as low as 48 points. It would be a 3 star play lower than that. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play Under* This number is several points too high. I was surprised to see this line when it was released. I made this total 45 points. Vanderbilt's offense still can't do anything this year. The Commodores have only been able to score when their defense creates a bunch of turnovers and gives them short fields constantly. 

Kentucky has had some high scoring games this year, but they played a 17-10 game two weeks ago against a South Carolina team that I believe is similar to this Vanderbilt team. The Wildcats offense isn't very good, and Vanderbilt still has a pretty good defense.

Vanderbilt moves very slowly and will run the ball consistently and try to milk the clock. With a total set this high, I'll take this one as a top play under. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Jose State Spartans and the Hawaii Warriors meet on Saturday afternoon. These are two defenses who have been giving up big plays a ton this year. How much? San Jose State has allowed 18 plays from scrimmage of at least 30 yards this year. Only 3 teams in the entire country have allowed more than that. Hawaii is near the bottom of the pack as well, having allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Both offenses have 15 plays of 30 yards or more on the year, so in this one we have two offenses who are very capable of big plays on a consistent basis against defenses who give them up regularly.

Hawaii has picked up their tempo in their last couple games, and they have found a quarterback for the system in Dru Brown. San Jose State's defense is one of the worst in the nation. 

San Jose State has a nice playmaker in Kenny Potter at quarterback and he is expected to be healthier in this one, after having an ankle injury last weekend and playing through it.

Take the over in this contest. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Air Force Falcons pass the ball on only 17.18% of their offensive plays. Air Force is all about the triple option. Craig Bohl and his defensive coordinator have both had a lot of experience defending the triple option.

Wyoming hosts this game, and the Cowboys are clearly an improved team. Where are they improved most? On the defensive line. Wyoming is allowing only 3.74 yards per carry so far this year compared to 5.3 yards per carry a year ago. It's quite a change, and the Cowboys are well equipped to at least slow down Air Force.

Wyoming is throwing the ball on only 39.79% of their passing plays. The Cowboys are a run first team. Air Force has been tremendous against the run this year. The Falcons are second in the nation against the run this year. They are allowing only 1.84 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming is likely to find it hard to run on Air Force.

The fact that both teams run the ball so often keeps the clock running. This is a really high total for a game between two teams who run it often and two defenses who stop the run very well. 

The two meetings between these two teams since Bohl came to Wyoming were 31-17 and 17-14. In last year's 31-17 game, the score was 14-3 after 3 quarters. In the 2014 matchup, the score was 10-7 after three quarters of play.

The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and NC State Wolfpack would likely surpass this posted total in normal conditions, but the latest forecasts show winds of around 20 mph and heavy rain during this game from Hurricane Matthew. 

While rain by itself doesn't hurt scoring as much as most people think, wind driven rain definitely hurts the passing games. Neither of these teams are particularly good on the ground, and they are going to be forced to run it more than they want to in this game. I expect the weather to play a large role in this game.

Also important to note is the fact that both of these teams are playing slower than average tempo-wise. I think the pace slows down even more in the drenching rain and heavy wind. 

Sometimes you have to make plays based on the weather, and that is exactly what this one is a: a play on wind and rain keeping this one lower scoring. Take the under. 

*Note- The latest forecasts are looking even worse for this game and the total is crashing. With wind expected at 35 mph, this game should be brutal. I continue to like the under here as long as the price is 56 or higher. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers are a much different team this year than they have been in the past. When you think of Auburn, you typically think of a fast paced offense. This year, they are actually in the bottom 50 in terms of tempo. You also think of a high powered offense, but they don't have that this season. The Tigers have put up big point totals on Arkansas State and UL Monroe, but against quality opponents they have struggled to score.

Mississippi State's defense has been very good against the run so far this year. The Bulldogs have held 2 of their 4 opponents under 100 yards rushing and both of those were home games. They'll be at home here, and I think they can slow down this Auburn rushing attack.

Auburn's defense is much better this year, and Mississippi State is missing playmakers on the offensive end. The Bulldogs passing game is poor, and they rely heavily on the ability to run. Auburn has a good front 7 led by Lawson, and I think they will hold their own here.

I expect a hard fought game here without many big plays. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Browns defense is likely to battle with the New Orleans Saints defense to see who is the worst defense in the NFL this year. Washington's defense isn't much better. Both of these defenses rank in my bottom five defenses in the NFL. 

Cody Kessler starts here for the Browns, and while I certainly don't trust him very much, I believe the Browns can move the ball here. Terrelle Pryor has become a weapon for the team, and he should be utilized well here. Hue Jackson is a good coach and he is an offensive minded guy. Look for him to get his team in a position to score several times here.

Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense got going against New York last week. Cleveland's defense shouldn't be able to slow them down here either. Cleveland doesn't have a strong pass rush and that puts a lot of pressure on their secondary. Cousins has been able to pick apart the weakest of defense in the past.

The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 games. The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Midnight MADNESS* The Hawaii Warriors host the Nevada Wolf Pack in a game where weather should play a major role. Showers are expected throughout the game, but the bigger story will be winds gusting at 25 miles per hour during the game. While rain is often neutral for points in a game, winds are always very good for under bettors. 

Nevada's offense has really struggled to get going this year. Their efficiency on offense has been far worse than I expected. The Wolf Pack are going to have to run the ball here, and Hawaii will know it is coming.

Hawaii is improved on offense, but most of their improvement comes from a better passing game. I don't think that passing game will work with these winds. 

Nevada has a strong front seven on defense and I think they can make it hard for Hawaii to score in these conditions. 

This isn't a game I would play the under on in normal conditions, but in weather conditions like this, I'll play the under. 

One final very telling number here. Of all the bets placed on the total here thus far: 60% of them are on the over, but 74% of the money is on the under. The sharp money has sided with the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank sixth in the country in tempo. Indiana is going to want to turn this into a high scoring game. They want as many possessions as possible. While you would think a game against Michigan State would have to stay low scoring- look at the recent meetings between these two teams. A whopping nine straight meetings between these two teams have gone over this posted total! Two years ago the score was 56-17 and last year the final was 52-26. 

The Spartans haven't had any trouble scoring on this Indiana defense, and the Hoosiers are just as bad as ever on defense this year. The entire defensive line is new from last year. MSU put up 36 points on Notre Dame. Notre Dame isn't a good defense this year, but they are certainly a better defense than Indiana.

Indiana put up over 600 yards of offense against Wake Forest, but turnovers haunted them in that game. The Hoosiers should have enough offense to keep this one pretty close.

The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings. Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Larry Rose III is back for the New Mexico State Aggies, and he makes this a totally different offense. New Mexico State's Tyler Rogers is a pretty good quarterback who can make plays, but having Rose in the backfield with him makes this offense much better. 

LA Lafayette is coming off a really tough 4 overtime loss to Tulane 41-39. The Ragin' Cajuns have an excellent running back in McGuire, and he should run through this weak run defense of the Aggies without any issues. 

Last year's meeting between these two was 37-34. This year, both of these teams have picked up their tempo compared to last season. This total is set a few points lower than I believe it should be. 

The weather in Las Cruces is expected to be beautiful for this game, and I think we'll see a high scoring contest. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas have a really good quarterback in Cooper Rush. With Rush at the helm, Central Michigan is a team that can create big plays. Central Michigan is 7th in the nation in "explosive" plays, plays of 20 yards or more with 28 already this year.

Western Michigan's defense has improved a lot against the run this year, but they are giving up big plays in the passing game. The Broncos have already allowed 4 passing plays of 40 yards or more on the year despite not playing against good quarterbacks. Also, Western Michigan has allowed their opponent to throw for a season high in passing yards in each of their games.

On the other side, Western Michigan's offense is as balanced as you will ever see from a MAC team. The Broncos can score on anyone. They have a good quarterback and two great running backs. Davis is an elite wide receiver. The Broncos should be able to move the ball consistently here. 

Rain in the area is the only reason this play isn't rated higher. I'll temper my enthusiasm a bit, but still a recommend a play on the over. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA TOP Total of the Month* The Charlotte 49ers and the Old Dominion Monarchs both have horrendous defenses. Both of these teams give up big plays by the bunches. Last year when they met the final score was 37-34. This year, both of the teams are much more experienced on offense. Old Dominion is getting much better quarterback play than a year ago, and the Monarchs should score plenty here.

Charlotte has Miami transfer Kevin Olsen at quarterback and he has been up and down, but against this weak ODU secondary he should look good. The 49ers have a couple good running backs who are more than capable of busting some big runs also. 

I made this total 66 points. A lot of value on the over in this game. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Month. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons defense is awful. They allowed 77 points to Ohio State. That was Ohio State so it is somewhat understandable, but last weekend they allowed 77 points to Memphis. The Memphis Tigers scored 77 points on Bowling Green. The worst part was Memphis had 77 with 14 minutes left and then quit scoring out of kindness.

Bowling Green's offense should have more success against an EMU defense that is among the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons still have some offensive weapons from last year's team that was great on offense.

Eastern Michigan is playing quicker and has much more talent on offense than they have had in past years. I think this one gets into the 70's. Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* Navy and Air Force both run the same offense. They both run the ball nearly every time they line up. While it is usually really difficult for the opposition to prepare for these offenses, in this case it is easy. They play against it every single day in practice. 

Navy is one of the slowest paced teams in the country. They often have long 7 or 8 minute drives and that makes a big difference when you have a total like this one. Air Force is slower than the average team as well.

Look for the two defenses to understand their assignments well here. With tons of running the football, this clock will be ticking away quickly. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles offense got on track in a big way last week against USF. Dalvin Cook ran for 267 yards on only 28 carries last week. The USF defense isn't a bad one either. Florida State had a hiccup at Louisville, but remember they also put up 45 points against a good Ole Miss game in the season opener. This offense is capable of very big things. 

North Carolina's secondary is good, but the Tar Heels struggle against good running teams (4.97 yards per carry). That showed again last week when the Tar Heels were very fortunate to beat Pittsburgh after the Panthers dominated them on the ground. Expect FSU to have a big game on the ground here. 

North Carolina's offense plays very fast and they make big plays. The Tar Heels rank in the top ten in pass plays of more than 30 yards. Florida State ranks in the bottom 20 in the nation in allowing explosive plays. The Seminoles defense is a real concern, and I see North Carolina putting up plenty of points here too.

Back and forth in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Georgia State Panthers offense had a really good quarterback in Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle put up huge stats for this team, and the Panthers offense was solid last season. Look at the last two meetings with Appalachian State though, and you'll see that Georgia State could do nothing on offense. Importantly, that was with Arbuckle under center. Georgia State scored 0 points and had only 62 yards of total offense two years ago! Last year, they scored only 3 points. 

It's hard to see Georgia State scoring many in this game. The Panthers have talent downgrades at some key positions on the offensive end, and Appalachian State has the best defense in the Sun Belt. Another important factor in this game is Appalachian State's pace of play. They rank among the slowest teams in the nation. The Mountaineers should be glad to run the football late to just use up the clock.

Marcus Cox is the Mountaineers star at RB and he is doubtful for this game. The Mountaineers will still score plenty of points here, but it definitely is a downgrade. 

A blowout win for App State with the defense dominating should be expected. 

The under is 7-0 in GA State's last 7 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 14-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing quickly still, and their defense is very weak. UCF has changed the way they play with Scott Frost as head coach. He has termed the team "UCFast". Here is another chance for them to play very quickly against an opponent who wants to do the same.

These offenses aren't the most efficient ever, but at a number of only 57.5 I have to go with a big play on the over. My projected number here was 65. 

With this many possessions for each team, I expect there to be enough big plays to get us past the posted total.

Take the over big. 

*Note- this line has moved since I sent it out to clients early this week- but I still like the play at current levels for a top rated selection*

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Rams rank 4th in yards per pass allowed in the NFL. The Rams front four is excellent, and they should be able to put enough pressure on Jameis Winston to make life relatively difficult on him. Doug Martin is out for this game, and that definitely hurts the Bucs offense. Tampa Bay becomes more one-dimensional without him, and that should help the Rams defense get after Winston even more.

The Tampa Bay defense hasn't been great so far this year, but the Rams offense is bad enough that it can make a mediocre defense look good. Case Keenum just doesn't look like the answer to me. Even more discouraging for the Rams has to be the play of the offensive line and the running of Todd Gurley. Tampa Bay's defense is much better against the run (3.0 ypc) than the pass, and I don't see Keenum being a guy who can exploit the Tampa Bay secondary.

The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 September games. The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 15 points or less. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Contrarian Play* The Seattle Seahawks offense has been bad so far this year. They have had two games go well under the posted total. That's why the public, which normally bets overs, is taking the under in this one. I'm going to go against popular opinion and suggest a play on the over here.

Chip Kelly's San Francisco offense scored 28 points on a good Rams defense and 27 points on a very good Carolina defense. The 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL. They'll get plenty of possessions here. 

Seattle has their chance to break out on offense in this one. The San Francisco defense looked bad last week against Carolina. Seattle is a favorite here by a wide margin, and if the 49ers get down early, they will play extremely fast late in the game. They did precisely this last weekend against Carolina, and that game was a shootout late in the game.

I think Seattle can make some big plays on the outside throughout this game. 

The last meeting between these two was 29-13, and that was before Chip Kelly and his faster tempo came to San Francisco. 

There won't be many times you'll be able to take over 41 in a game with Chip Kelly as one of the coaches. Too much value to pass up. Grab the over in this one.

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New York Giants gained 417 yards last weekend. They struggled getting the ball into the end zone, but New York's offense moved the ball very well. New York now has three very good receiving options: Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shephard. Eli Manning can be very good when given time to throw, and with this many weapons I see the Giants offense being better than expected.

The Washington Redskins defense has been torched by both Pittsburgh and Dallas. Pittsburgh has a very good offense, but Dallas' offense is questionable right now and they put up 27 points without being very good in the red zone. Washington's defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Look for Manning to have a big day.

Kirk Cousins has been under fire, but he has had some success in the past against the Giants. The Giants defense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year.

Both of these teams are playing at a relatively quick tempo. With the total down to 45.5, I think all the value is on the over.

The over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 250 passing yards or more. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears play extremely fast, and they play absolutely zero defense. Arizona State plays almost as fast, and their defense isn't good either. It was 48-46 last time these two met and I see another shootout here. I projected this total at 89 points, so I'm glad to get this number. 

Cal's Webb is a great fit at quarterback, and he has some nice playmakers around him. The Arizona State secondary is a major weakness. Look at what happened when they played Texas Tech earlier this year. 

Tons of tempo and the offenses with the edge all night. Shootout on the West Coast here. I certainly don't like to make a habit of taking overs at this kind of number, but it wouldn't surprise me if this game got to 100 points combined with the kind of tackling I've seen out of these two defenses so far this year.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers are still playing at a pretty quick pace this year. They use the spread offense. Bowling Green is playing at the ninth fastest pace of any team in the country. Bowling Green's offensive numbers this year don't look impressive, but I think that is at least somewhat understandable.

Bowling Green faced a great Ohio State defense in week one. Last week, they played against MTSU in a monsoon, where the field was tearing up and the offenses were stalling out late in the game. The Falcons should still be able to score quite a few in the long term. At the same time, the Bowling Green defense is among the worst in football, and they'll give up a lot of quick scores throughout the year.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is going to score a lot of points this year. Tony Franklin is their new offensive coordinator and he is looking to push the tempo at every opportunity. Brent Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and Franklin is great at coaching up quarterbacks. I see huge things ahead for Stockstill. 

Louisiana Tech's defense lost just about everything from a year ago. The Bulldogs allowed 24 points against lowly South Carolina State two weeks ago, and then Texas Tech put up 59 points on them last weekend. I'm not suggesting MTSU will score 59, but they should score a lot.

At the same time, MTSU has been gashed in the running game two weeks in a row. Vanderbilt ran for 231 yards two weeks ago. Bowling Green, who had been bad running the football prior to last week, ran for a whopping 304 yards against MTSU last weekend. Craft is averaging better than 7 yards per carry for LA Tech and the Bulldogs have a long history of producing good running backs. LA Tech should score a lot here as well.

Nice weather and two high powered offenses. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Fresno State Bulldogs aren't any good this year, but they want to play quickly. That plays right into the hands of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tulsa has played some pretty good defenses this year, and that has kept their numbers down. That gives us line value to take the over here. 

The Fresno State defense will rank among the bottom 10 or 20 in the nation at the end of the year, and this is a defense that Tulsa's run and shoot offense should carve up. Look for Dane Evans and Keevan Lucas to have huge days. I think the Fresno State defense will be particularly vulnerable to teams who can spread them out and that is what Tulsa is great at on the offensive end. 

Tulsa gave up the second most points in the country last year at almost 40 points per game. Fresno State should be able to put up enough to get us there. Virgil is a guy who many believe can turn into a solid quarterback in time, and he is up against a weak defense.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels always like to play quickly. I don't expect that to change in this one. North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky will improve in this offense as the season moves along. He has plenty of weapons around him, and in this one he is up against a really weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Pittsburgh's problem on defense is they are having to send blitzes to get pressure on the quarterback, and they simply don't have enough talent in the secondary to constantly send blitzes. Still, Pat Narduzzi's style is to be aggressive on defense. North Carolina should be able to beat them over the top some as both Penn State and Oklahoma State did in recent weeks. The Cowboys Mason Rudolph threw for a ridiculous 372 yards in the first half alone last weekend.

Pitt's offense is improved this year. They have a new system that is taking more chances, and I like what I've seen from this group. North Carolina's defensive line isn't very good against the run, and Pitt can do damage there. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are better than they were a year ago. In last year's game, the final was 36-31. UTSA's Dalton Sturm is a much improved quarterback, and against a team like ODU he should have plenty of ability to extend plays as he is so good at doing. The Roadrunners have a new offensive system which I believe suits their skillsets better than last year's.

Old Dominion has the best offensive line they have had in years. The Monarchs have a very solid group of running backs, and I see them having a big day here. Old Dominion saw their last 7 games last season go over this posted total. 

In last year's contest between these two, there were almost 1,000 yards. The weather is forecasted to be nice for this one. I have to side with the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a different team this year. They are spreading things out and playing much faster. Justin Fuente had a ton of success with this style of play at Memphis, and now he is implementing it here. The Hokies have been pretty good so far this year. They put up 49 points against a good Boston College defense last week. They also scored 24 on a good Tennessee defense the week before.

East Carolina beat Virginia Tech 35-28 last year. The Pirates will get Virginia Tech's best effort here. East Carolina has been better than I expected this year, mainly because they have a top ten passing attack in the country. East Carolina is looking to play quickly, and that should give them opportunities here.

East Carolina's secondary is a weak spot, and I think Virginia Tech can exploit it. The Hokies don't have a dominating defense this year, and ECU should score plenty as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Can Kent score here? Kent State hasn't been able to do anything on offense all year. They can barely score on FCS teams. I'll be surprised if the Golden Flashes put up more than 7 points here. Alabama has no real reason to drive Kent State into the ground here. Rather, it would make far more sense for the Crimson Tide to take care of business, stay healthy, and move onto the next week.

Look for a sloppy game where the under cashes in because Alabama is unmotivated. Remember, they are coming off a game where they got their revenge against Ole Miss. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers are trying to play at a quicker tempo this year. Purdue does have the ability to get yards this year. In fact, they moved up and down the field against a pretty good Cincinnati defense. They just turned it over five times. If they can avoid the turnover, they should be able to score quite a few on a weak Nevada defense.

Nevada runs the spread offense, and they have a veteran (Stewart) at quarterback who should pick apart this soft Purdue defense.

My numbers made this total 62.5, so I see plenty of value. Take the over. 

*4 Star Eagles/Bears Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles played at the quickest tempo in the league last year with Chip Kelly at the helm, but things will be much different this year. Based on Doug Pederson's background, I expect the Eagles to rank among the five slowest paced teams in the league this year. The Bears have typically ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pace of play as well, and I don't see that changing this year. 

There is no doubt that the Bears defense is much better this year than last season. They have upgraded in a big way at the linebacker position, and I expect Danny Trevathan to have a great year for them. 

The Eagles defense has no glaring weaknesses, and Philadelphia is going to be much better defensively now that they aren't on the field all the time like they were last season. 

Wentz was good in his first game, but that was against a terrible Browns defense. Jay Cutler isn't a guy I like to trust either. 

I see a low scoring battle all the way.

The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after allowing 15 points or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the Eagles last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers in a key divisional game. Minnesota is opening up their new stadium here, and the stakes are always high when these two meet. These are the teams expected to compete for the NFC North. The Vikings topped Green Bay on the road to win the division last year. 

The Vikings appear ready to start Sam Bradford at quarterback in this game. Bradford has only been around the team about two weeks, so he can't know the entire playbook very well. We know the Vikings will play it close to the vest here, because they are already one of the most conservative play calling teams in the NFL (arguably the most conservative). 

The Vikings have the big edge in the trenches in this game. The Packers have the much better quarterback. I don't think the Packers defense will let Peterson have a huge game here, and the Vikings defense has been solid against Rodgers recently.

This looks like one of those very hard fought games where someone wins 17-14 or 20-17. 

The under is 10-1 in the Vikings last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 11-5 in the Packers last 16 games. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Houston Texans defense will be one of the best in the NFL all year. They have run stuffers and obviously they have amazing pass rushers all over the field. Kansas City's defense is also one that I believe is better than the average defense in the league.

Kansas City had to play a quick tempo in the second half to make their miraculous comeback against San Diego last week, but year after year under Andy Reid they have ranked as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Texans have slowed their pace of play down this season as they have a new quarterback in the system.

I think both offenses will keep things quite vanilla in this one. Look for a lot of running plays that keep the clock ticking. I expect to see a very close game all the way where the defenses have the upper hand. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Saturday Late Night BAILOUT* The Arizona Wildcats offense hasn't been able to get going so far this year, but I think they have found the perfect tonic for their problems: the Hawaii defense. Hawaii gave up 51 points to Cal. They allowed 63 points at Michigan. They allowed 36 points to Tennessee Martin (an FCS team). 

Arizona's Anu Solomon is questionable for this game, but I feel confident in either Solomon or backup Brandon Dawkins in this one. In fact, Dawkins is one of the most highly touted quarterback recruits to go to Arizona. Nick Wilson should be able to have a big day here. Hawaii allowed more than 200 rushing yards to Tennessee Martin, and that tells you a lot. 

The Hawaii offense is definitely improved this year with new coach Nick Rolovich. Woolsey is a decent quarterback who can spread the ball around. This Arizona defense allowed 35.8 points per game last year. I do believe they are some better this year, but they are still going to allow plenty of yards and points.

This total has gotten too low based on Arizona's initial problems on offense this year. I'll take the value on the over. 

*5 Star SEC TOP Total CRUSHER* The Missouri Tigers are playing much faster this year. There is no question about that. The part that I question is whether their offense is efficient enough for totals to be going this high against a good defense. The posted total here opened at 45 points. It' now sits at 56 points. Now, I wouldn't have played the under at 45 points, but I definitely have to play it at 56 points. 

Missouri is 25th in the nation in tempo, so they are playing quickly. However, Missouri ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. Drew Lock is only a mediocre quarterback and the Tigers offensive line and running game aren't very good.

The Georgia Bulldogs have a defensive minded coach in Kirby Smart. I don't expect to see Georgia get carved up by this faster paced Missouri offense here.

Georgia is a very slow paced team. The Bulldogs offensive coordinator came from Pittsburgh, and the Panthers ranked among the ten slowest paced teams in the country last year. The Bulldogs have all sorts of question marks on their offense right now. 

Georgia doesn't know who to play at quarterback, and that's always a problem. The offensive line wasn't expected to be a problem, but they have been bad so far this year. They didn't even average 4 yards per carry against Nicholls State. Missouri's strength is their defensive line, and I see them being able to slow down this Georgia offense.

I know these teams are different this year, but the final was 9-6 last year when they played and it was 34-0 two years ago. I don't see this game blowing up and being really high scoring. My number is 49 points here.

The under is 4-0 in Georgia's last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing less than 275 total yards last game. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Missouri's last 5 games following a straight up win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 33-0 angle. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights are looking to play a very fast tempo this year. UCF has Scott Frost as their new head coach and he's been at Oregon in the past. UCF gets a good chance to play much faster in this one as they take on a Maryland team who wants to play much quicker this year as well with D.J. Durkin at the helm.

Maryland put up 41 points against FIU last week, and FIU is a team that slows the game down. UCF won't slow things down, and the UCF defense isn't what it was a couple years ago. With their quicker pace, I expect UCF's defensive numbers to be poor this year.

Justin Holman is questionable at quarterback for UCF, so I've kept this down to a 3 star play instead of something bigger, but I believe UCF can score some here regardless of who plays. Maryland's defense is nothing better than mediocre.

Tempo is the key in this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Tulane Green Wave both want to run the ball nearly every play. That much running of the football means the clock will be rolling almost all the time. Tulane runs the option now with new coach Willie Fritz and Navy has a ton of experience running and defending the option obviously. Tulane has slowed Navy down better than the average team in the past couple tries (last year they actually outgained Navy in a 31-14 loss), and their experience defending the option this year can do nothing but help. 

I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see significant value. Take the under big. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* The Georgia Southern Eagles have one of the top three rushing attacks in the country. Georgia Southern's Matt Breida is a monster in the backfield, and he's going to rack up at least 1,500 yards again this year. Both Upshaw and Ellison are excellent at the quarterback spot. This is a potent running attack that can break huge plays against weak defenses.

Louisiana Monroe is one of the worst teams in all of college football. Their single biggest weakness is stopping the run. This is a recipe for disaster for them. Monroe's defense is at least as bad as a year ago, and Georgia Southern rolled up 503 yards of offense and 51 points when playing at LA Monroe last season. It won't surprise me if Georgia Southern gets around 50 again here. 

Louisiana Monroe plays a much different style on offense this year than they did last season. Last year, they were one of the slowest paced teams in the country. New Coach Matt Viator has them spreading out things and looking to play quickly this year. Sophomore quarterback Garrett Smith is a pretty solid quarterback, and I expect him to have some pretty good numbers in this system.

Georgia Southern's biggest weakness is their secondary, where they had to replace everyone from a year ago. The Eagles haven't been tested in the secondary so far this year, but I think LA Monroe can get some plays down the field in this one. 

Last year's game was 51-31 with both teams playing slowly. The defenses are worse on the whole this year, and the tempo will be quicker. 

The over is 30-13-1 in LA Monroe's last 44 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here is pretty ugly. Showers throughout this game and even more importantly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. That should slow things down in this game. Colorado relies heavily on the passing game, and I don't see them having much success throwing the ball in these conditions. Michigan's front seven on defense are too good for Colorado's offensive line. The Buffaloes are unlikely to be able to run the ball here.

Michigan plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Because they have seen 9 straight games go over the posted total at home, the total has been inflated by the oddsmakers on this game. Without the weather, I would have passed here. With the bad weather, I think this one is worth a play on the under. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Syracuse defense looked about as hapless as you could look in last week's loss to Louisville. If it weren't for Louisville turning it over in key situations, they would have scored 70 points or more against this Cuse defense. South Florida's Quinten Flowers is a very underrated quarterback, and he plays a lot like Lamar Jackson from Louisville. He isn't quite as good, but he can do similar things. He'll have a field day against this Syracuse defense that is thin up front and is now missing two cornerbacks due to injuries.

Syracuse's offense should just improve over time as Dino Babers has proven to be a great offensive minded coach. Dungey fits the system well. 

USF put up 48 on Northern Illinois last week, and I think they score that many or more here as well. Syracuse should be able to score enough to get us well past the total. Take the over big. 

*I had this one projected at 80 points, so even with the line move during the week I still like the over in this game. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders are playing much quicker with Tony Franklin as their offensive coordinator and Brent Stockstill is a great guy to have under center in this type of offense. MTSU should move the ball at will against this terrible Bowling Green defense. MTSU moved it easily against Vanderbilt last week and then had turnovers and penalties. This week, they play a much worse defense.

Bowling Green hasn't been able to get the offense rolling this year, but I think they do this week. MTSU is weak on the defensive front and the Falcons play a tremendous uptempo style of offense. 

There will be a ton of possessions in this game. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The San Francisco 49ers are going to run an uptempo offense under Chip Kelly, but I don't expect them to be very efficient on offense. This is still a team that lacks weapons. Other than going out and grabbing Chip Kelly, I'm not sure this team really did much of anything to improve the offense. 

The St. Louis Rams have all sorts of offensive problems as well. Case Keenum hasn't proven that he is good enough to win games on a consistent basis. The Rams are almost certainly going to want to run the ball and control the clock more here, and that should help the under.

The 49ers defense is a league average defense, and I think that should be good enough to slow down the Rams offense the majority of the game. The Rams defense is a good one. St. Louis might be a bit vulnerable on the deep ball in the secondary, but I don't see the 49ers having the players necessary to take advantage of that weakness.

The under is 38-17-1 in the Rams last 56 road games. The under is 18-5 in the 49ers last 23 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals lost their offensive coordinator from last year. Hue Jackson could be a pretty big loss for Andy Dalton and company. An even bigger loss is Tyler Eifert. Eifert is key for this offense because he opens things up on the outside for AJ Green. Marvin Jones is gone as well, and the Bengals pass receivers are subpar now. Look for the Bengals to struggle through the air against a good secondary. The Jets are solid up front as well, and I see them making life difficult on the Bengals.

The Jets offense isn't filled with stars. It's a group that can get the job done, but it isn't necessarily pretty. Cincinnati's defense has been underrated the last few years, and I believe they'll be good again this season. The Bengals have some talented playmakers on all levels.

The winds are expected to be a bit of an issue here, which should mean even more running the football. I expect a very close game that stays under the total. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Chicago Bears defense got much better with the signings of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. The Bears now have one of the best groups of linebackers in the NFL. I think this Bears defense is going to surprise to the upside in the season ahead. 

Houston is a defense that is obviously one of the best in the NFL. J.J. Watt's recovery has stunned everyone, and the fact that he is expected to play Sunday is a huge plus. The Bears are going through some transitions on offense, and I don't see Houston as a team that will make it easy on the Bears offense.

I'm very surprised the number was set so high here, and it seems like the sharp players in the market agree. About 81% of the money so far bet on this total has been on the under. Public players don't play this early, so I see most of that as sharp money.

Neither quarterback is all that trustworthy, and we have two of the top ten defenses in the NFL in my book. This one is a strong under play for me. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones are obviously rivals. When these two meet, there is a long history of low scoring games. The last four games between these two have stayed under the total. None of them have gone higher than 48 points. In fact, the game that went over the total five years ago was a triple overtime game where the score was at 48 points at the end of regulation.

Generally, in a rivalry game you see the defenses pick up their level of play. The two teams know each other very well, so there are generally less big plays. I see that type of game here. Iowa State will want to run it a lot with Warren. New Coach Matt Campbell has been all about the running game in his career. I think it continues at Iowa State. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes always prefer to run the ball, and they always play at one the slowest tempos in all of the country. There should be some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock here.

I will look for this one to stay in the 40's. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have the best running game in the country. Matt Breida is one of the most underrated running backs in college football. He will put up some huge numbers this season. 

Georgia Southern ran for 489 yards last year against South Alabama. The Eagles scored 55 points in that game. They probably won't put up that kind of number here, but I do think they'll score a lot. South Alabama's big weakness is their rushing defense, and that is a very bad problem to have against this Georgia Southern offense. Ellison and Upshaw are tremendous QB's for the system, Breida is a great RB, and they have a very good offensive line.

South Alabama did find a much better quarterback this year in Davis. He has some mobility and a strong arm. Georgia Southern returns zero starters in the secondary, and I expect them to get beat deep quite a bit this year. The Eagles are playing a new defensive scheme, and it often takes time to get accustomed to these changes.

I see both teams putting up a solid amount of points here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane played at the second fastest tempo of any team in the nation last year. Their goal is to play even faster this year. They have senior quarterback Dane Evans at the helm, and he knows this offense very well now. Keevan Lucas is back from an injury last year, and he is one of the most underrated receivers in the country. 

Ohio State decided to pick up the tempo on offense this year. Urban Meyer really likes JT Barrett in a fast paced system. The Buckeyes hung 77 points on Bowling Green last week. I'm certainly not going to suggest they'll score that this weekend, but Ohio State should put up a very big number in this contest. Tulsa's defense allowed about 40 points per game last year, and the Golden Hurricane won't face a team with more offensive talent than Ohio State. The Buckeyes have far too many weapons for Tulsa, and Ohio State scoring less than 55 here would surprise me. 

The Buckeyes defense is clearly down from a year ago, and the area where they are most down is likely in the secondary. Tulsa should be able to make some plays throughout this game. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense was tremendous last week. Especially when Kizer was at quarterback. Notre Dame should be able to do whatever they want against this Nevada defense. The Wolf Pack lost a bunch of guys from last year, and they will be totally outclassed.

Nevada is looking to push the tempo more this year, and that's a big reason for this selection. The Wolf Pack have a good ground game and a veteran quarterback. Notre Dame's defense is better than they showed last week against Texas, but they are down quite a bit from a year ago. 

I see Notre Dame giving up some points late here as they will likely rest the starters for next week's big matchup vs. Michigan State. If Notre Dame puts the 2nd stringers in on offense, I still think they keep scoring against this Nevada team. 

I expect a 45-21 type game here. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* Navy's offense worked like a well-oiled machine with Keenan Reynolds at the helm. Reynolds graduated with all sorts of records at the school. Navy's offense was going to be down a good amount this year because they lost him, but now they took another big hit when new starting quarterback Tago Smith went down with a season-ending knee injury in week one. 

Will Worth now takes over the job and he is a step down from Smith and a huge step down from Reynolds. Navy is up against one of the best defenses they will play this year this weekend. The UConn Huskies have turned into a really good defense under Bob Diaco. Navy only put up 343 yards (they averaged 425) last year against UConn. The Huskies held Army's option attack to 265 yards and 9 first downs last year. This is a defense that appears ready for the triple option.

UConn's offense struggled to get going all season last year. They struggled badly against Maine (FCS) last weekend also. The Huskies have no clear identity on offense, and I don't see them scoring very many here.

A big key to this game is the tempo that both teams play at. Navy always ranks in the bottom ten in tempo, and UConn is in the slowest quarter of teams in the country. Expect a bunch of running and long drives that eat up the clock. 

Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are completely changing up the way they play this year. BYU is going to go from a no huddle offense to an offense that huddles up after every play and uses pro style sets. Ty Detmer's offense is going to look to run the ball much more often and use the tight ends. Expect some long drives from the Cougars that use a lot of clock.

Arizona will continue to play fast, but I do think the BYU defense is plenty good enough to slow down Arizona better than most teams. This Cougars defense is better than it was a year ago, and Arizona has a bunch of question marks at wide receiver.

On defense, I expect Arizona to be better this year. Their new defensive coordinator comes from Boise State where he did a tremendous job. He will make the necessary adjustments to help Arizona slow down BYU here.

This game is totaled too high considering BYU's changes, so I'll grab the value on the under here. Take the under. 

*4 Star USC/Alabama Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide certainly lost a lot on defense, but I fully expect them to be one of the best defenses in the country again. Several key players actually turned down the NFL. Strong safety Eddie Jackson surprised in coming back, and I expect a huge season out of him. Reuben Foster is set to be a star at the linebacker spot. Alabama is always strong on the defensive front, and this year will be no different. 

Alabama's offense has a question mark at quarterback. I don't think they have anyone who will play as well as Coker did for them last year. The running backs are very talented here, but they are inexperienced. Alabama's offense plays at a slow pace, and I think they will slow things down a bit more for the new starter in game one.

USC has a new starting quarterback as well. Browne has talent, but he isn't likely to have a good game against this strong Crimson Tide defense. The Trojans have a strong offensive line, and I expect their game plan to be to try to run the ball early and often. Running the ball that often takes a lot of time off the clock. The Trojans may have limited success running it, but I don't see them running it well consistently against this defensive front. 

I think this total should have been 49 or 50, so I see plenty of value in this one. Take the under here. 

*4 Star CFB Under Radar Total* The North Texas Mean Green brought in Seth Littrell as their new head coach. They definitely needed something new after a really ugly season a year ago. Littrell wants to totally change the way the Mean Green play, and he has brought in Graham Harrell to run the offense here. Harrell was previously a quarterback in the Texas Tech system, and he is implementing the Air Raid offense at North Texas. Alec Morris is an Alabama transfer, and he'll run this offense this year.

North Texas allowed 41.3 points per game last year. They return 8 starters here, but is that really a good thing when they were this bad? The Mean Green look weak on every level again this season.

SMU Coach Chad Morris looked back at the tape last year and decided he simply didn't like the way SMU failed to push the tempo. He said they played it too cautious last year and things will be different in the year ahead. He said in the offseason, "We tried slowing down last year, and we didn't like it: it's not us." Morris wants the team to be blazing fast this season. How fast? He said, "If the official spotting the ball sets his feet before the ball snaps, we're going too slow." SMU will push the tempo this year.

The Mustangs have a very good quarterback in Matt Davis, and I expect big things from him this year. The receivers are much better this year, and SMU should score easily against North Texas.

SMU allowed a whopping 45.7 points per game last year, and that was before they pushed the tempo. The defense is more experienced, but there will be more possessions this year, and this stop unit is still terrible.

Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Total Value Play* The Georgia Bulldogs are going to be all about the running game this year. Nick Chubb is expected to play here, and reports are that he has looked very good in practice. The Georgia offensive line is one of the best in the SEC once again this year, and they'll be able to run the football against most teams. 

North Carolina gave up 5.2 yards per carry last year and 5.1 yards per carry this year. The Tar Heels have had trouble stopping much lesser running attacks than this Georgia one, and I see them getting gashed here. 

North Carolina has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Tar Heels lost Marquise Williams and many will expect their offense to be down, but I see this offense being excellent once again. Don't be surprised if they come close to last year's numbers (they averaged more than 40 points per game). The Tar Heels have a great running back in Elijah Hood, and running behind that experienced offensive front, he should have a huge season. Mitch Trubisky was great as a backup last year, and he knows Larry Fedora's system well. This will be the same high-octane offense we saw last year. 

With North Carolina pushing the tempo and Georgia breaking big runs on the ground, I see a back and forth game that goes over the posted total. Take the over here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks defense returns a ton of talent, and I expect their numbers to be much more like what they were two years ago than last year. Arkansas loses a ton from their offensive line, and the Razorbacks don't have the depth at running back they have had in the past. They also have a new quarterback who will be much weaker than Brandon Allen.

Louisiana Tech has historically had one of the better defenses in their conference. They lost Jeff Driskel and Kenneth Dixon (their star QB and RB) from last year and this offense will be significantly weaker. Now, their projected starter has gotten in trouble with the law and won't start this game. 

The Arkansas offense always moves at a very slow tempo, and that should be the case again this year. Louisiana Tech will likely play slower on offense with Driskel gone as well, especially with a backfield that needs more reps.

This total is several points too high. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins will change it up and run a pro style offense this year. Josh Rosen and this offense are expected to play a little slower (they were 13th fastest in the nation in tempo last year. With Paul Perkins gone, the Bruins have less of a running game to lean on as well. Three UCLA offensive lineman from last year are gone. UCLA lost their top two receivers from a year ago. Rosen is good, but the pieces around him aren't as good this year. 

The Bruins defense should be better than a year ago. Eddie Vanderdoes is an excellent defensive tackle and he missed nearly the whole season last year. The same goes for cornerback Fabian Moreau, who should have a big season this year. UCLA returns nine starters and I expect their defensive numbers to be better.

Texas A&M picked up Trevor Knight to run their offense at QB. Knight isn't a guy that I trust just yet. He is learning a totally new offense, and he'll be up against a good defense. The Aggies primary weakness is their offensive line, and that's important here. 

John Chavis did a great job with this Texas A&M defense a year ago. The Aggies defense should be even better this year. Texas A&M's only question mark on defense is the linebacker spot. The d-line and the secondary both look strong. The Aggies allowed only 22.0 points per game and 380 yards per game last year. 

This number has risen to a point where I believe the under is a value. We'll take the under in this season opener. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number actually opened at 56 and has gone down to 51.5. It's pretty rare that I go against a line move like this, but there's too much value on the over for me to pass on this total. 

Western Michigan's offense is absolutely loaded this year. With Terrell at quarterback they can expect very solid play. Their running backs are better than most backs at the biggest schools in the country, and they have a star at wide receiver in Davis. The offensive front is pretty good as well.

Northwestern's defense was excellent last year. The Wildcats lost a lot up front though, and I see their defensive line being down quite a bit from last year. Western Michigan is going to be one of the better offenses Northwestern plays all year.

Northwestern's offense was very weak last year, but I expect far better production from them here. The Wildcats have a great back in Jackson, and he should have a lot of room to run against a weak Western Michigan front seven. The Broncos allowed 5.1 yards per carry last year. 

This should be a close game throughout, and overtime is certainly a possibility as well. I think a 31-28 type final score here should be expected. 

This number was set too low based on Northwestern being an under machine last year. Things change from year to year and Northwestern is a different team now.  In Western Michigan's last 16 games only 3 of them have gone below this total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football Friday TOP Total* The Colorado Buffaloes offense averaged 24.5 points per game last year, but I expect that number to go up in the year ahead. Colorado brought in a new offensive coordinator from Texas Tech and he is expected to get this team playing at a quicker tempo. Sefo Liufau is healthy, and I see him being a pretty good fit for this offense. The Buffaloes have good depth at both RB and WR, so the tools are there for this offense to work well.

Colorado State lost their entire defensive line and their defensive coordinator from last year. I expect this Rams defense to be down several notches from last year. The Rams are going to give up tons of yards on the ground, and they'll have almost no pass rush. The secondary is a bit weaker, and their numbers should be much worse overall thanks to the very weak pass rush. 

In last year's game, Colorado State gained 500 yards but turned it over in scoring situations. Colorado State's offense also looks to play at a quicker tempo in the second year of Mike Bobo's system. 

Both teams should get a lot of possessions because of the quicker tempo, and 54 isn't a high total at all. I don't think the tempo changes are being accounted for by the oddsmakers in this total. Look for a close game where both quarterbacks play well.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Louisville Cardinals offense will be much more dynamic this year. Lamar Jackson is the answer at quarterback, and I loved the way he closed out the year for the Cardinals last year. Louisville scored 34 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games last year. They return nine starters on offense this year, and I think this is the year things start to click for them.

Bobby Petrino's teams have usually had explosive offenses in the past. In his third year back, and now with the players to fit his system, there should be a big difference. In this particular game, it should be easy for Louisville to break all kinds of explosive plays (gains of 20 yards or more). Charlotte's defense will rank among the worst in the country this year. The 49ers defensive line is going to be totally overmatched here. 

Charlotte finished last year with the tenth fastest pace of play in the country last year. They are expected to push the tempo again this year. Why are they pushing the pace? I'm not really sure. It doesn't make much sense for a bad team to try to allow their opponent to get more possessions, but that is what they do. 

Charlotte's offense will definitely be better with Kevin Olsen at quarterback. He was very highly touted coming out of high school, and he is the younger brother of Panthers star Greg Olsen. 

The Cardinals defense is good, but they are less experienced than last year, and in a blowout they should give up some points. 

I look for Louisville to top 50 points here, and that makes me like the over. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star NFC Championship CRUSHER* The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday night. I'm looking forward to this one. There are some great playmakers on offense in this game. Cam Newton has been amazing this year, and Stewart is underrated as a running back. 

Carson Palmer has been great all year and the Cardinals have a ton of weapons in the passing game. The Carolina secondary has allowed more big plays late in the season, and that's where Arizona can beat them. I expect Arizona to be able to bust several long plays.

Arizona's defense is banged up now, and Carolina has been great at breaking long runs and mixing in the passing game when needed. Also, both of these defenses have scored a lot this year, and some defensive or special teams touchdowns here wouldn't be a big surprise. 

This is a matchup of the number one and number two scoring offenses in the NFL. A back and forth game. The over is 10-4 in the Panthers last 14 playoff games. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 playoff games. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Under* I waited on this one for a long time. I've wanted to play the under, but figured the line would go up, and it finally has. I wanted the key number of 45, and now we have it. This is not a big play, but I do believe it has some value here. The Broncos will have to slow the game down and run the ball a lot to win here. New England's defense is underrated this year, and the Broncos offense isn't going to be able to do much down the field. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a terrific game from earlier this year. Carolina went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks in shocking fashion with a late comeback victory. 

Seattle's defense didn't play well early in the season, but they are definitely playing well now. The Seahawks defense rates number one in the NFL in the past month. They are first in the NFL against the run, and Carolina is dependent on running the ball a bunch.

Carolina's defense is ranked number four when it comes to stopping the run. Seattle is definitely a run first team. The Panthers should make them work hard for yardage here. 

A cool day with a slight chance of rain mixed with snow is in the forecast for Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. 

The under is 5-0 in Seattle's last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points last game.  The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Carolina. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Pats/Chiefs Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Chiefs offense still isn't good. Alex Smith is a game manager and the running game is important to their success. New England has done a solid job of stopping the run this year, and they will sell out to stop the run here. Jeremy Maclin is questionable and if he plays he will be at less than 100 percent. Maclin is the Chiefs best playmaker and without him being healthy, I don't see Kansas City scoring much here. 

New England has a lot of question marks on offense. Edelman will play, but is less than 100 percent. Gronkowski is listed as questionable. I think he plays, but he is likely less than 100 percent too. While the Pats should have some success on offense, this Chiefs defense has played exceptionally down the stretch.

Heavy rain is in the forecast for early Saturday afternoon here. The rain will likely be letting up during the game, but the field will be sloppy and a 10 to 12 mph wind will hurt the passing games a bit. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Wild Card Best Bet* The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a regular season blowout win in favor of Seattle. This one will be a January games played outdoors in Minnesota. Currently, the forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a temperature of 12 degrees and a 10 mph wind. 

Minnesota only got 9 first downs in the first meeting with Seattle. The only 7 points Minnesota scored was via a kickoff returned for 100 yards. The Seattle offense had a short field multiple times in that game, and I think Mike Zimmer and his staff will have the Minnesota defense better prepared for Seattle's offense in this one.

Seattle plays at the 24th quickest pace of play in the NFL (out of 32 teams). Minnesota plays at the 25th fastest tempo. 

The under is 4-0 in Seattle's last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 Wild Card games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 January games. The under is 9-1 in Minnesota's last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-1 angle. Take the under. 

*Note- This line has dropped throughout the week because of the weather forecast. I would recommend this as a 3 star play at the current price. Thank you*

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have a lot on the line in this one. In many games in week 17, I believe it is hard to predict where the total will go because the teams aren't motivated. These two teams are going to be motivated.

Green Bay looked awful last week, and they should play better here. The Packers defense will try to make Teddy Bridgewater beat them. Can he do it? I'm not sure he can. Green Bay's offense has changed quite a bit in recent weeks as well. With McCarthy calling the plays, the Packers are running the ball more often and using up the clock.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Vikings last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Chargers offense is totally one-dimensional. They cannot run the football. Being one-dimensional in the NFL is dangerous against any defense, but against a defense like Denver it is very bad news. San Diego can't protect Phillip Rivers thanks to a ton of injuries on the offensive line. Denver ranks first in the NFL in sacks. Expect the Broncos to be in Rivers' face all day, and he's going to take some big hits.

The Chargers are missing several key playmakers on offense, and their defense has actually improved late in the season. Denver's offense is very inconsistent, but the Denver defense is easily the best in the league. The first game between these two was 17-3. I don't think this one gets very close to the total either.

The under is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards or more passing last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Denver's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Jets/Bills CASH* The New York Jets defense is excellent. The Buffalo Bills defense is very talented, but they have underachieved most of the year. I think Rex Ryan will do a good job motivating the defense and his team in general though as they go up against his old team and try to ruin their playoff chances.

A key factor here is the weather. There are snow showers expected throughout the day. It won't be a lot of snow that's the big problem though. The wind is the huge issue here. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will make throwing the football extremely difficult. Both offenses are likely to become very predictable running the football a bunch here. That will also keep the clock going. 

In a game that means a lot to both teams and with poor weather, I see a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*Note- Trevone Boykin was suspended a few hours after I made this selection. I would NOT recommend the over now with him out of the game. This game would be a pass for me. Boykin means too much to that team.* 

*3 Star Sugar Bowl 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a way of making just about every game high scoring. Oklahoma State ranks 95th in the nation in total defense. That's really bad when you consider there are only 128 teams and so many of them at the bottom are terrible teams.

The Cowboys are giving up 42.8 points per game in their last five games. Oklahoma State's defense will be tested by Mississippi's speed on the outside. The Rebels have a lot of big playmakers starting with Laquon Treadwell. I expect a bunch of explosive plays from Ole Miss here.

Oklahoma State's offense ranks eighth in the nation in passing yards. Ole Miss has been strong on the front seven this year, but their secondary is way down from a year ago. The Rebels have four guys injured or suspended on their defensive front, so they will be thin there.

Both teams play with a bunch of pace, so I expect a lot of possessions. 

The over is 6-0 in Oklahoma State's last 6 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Rose Bowl Red Hot CASH* The Stanford Cardinal and Iowa Hawkeyes meet in what should be a very physical game in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day. Stanford's Christian McCaffrey finished second in the Heisman Trophy race, and he'll get the ball a bunch here. Stanford runs the ball a bunch, and they take their time between plays as well. Stanford's pace of play ranks at 122nd out of 128 teams in the country, so they definitely take a lot of time on their drives.

Iowa has played a much weaker schedule, but thus far this year Iowa has been very good against the run. The Hawkeyes defensive front is good. On offense, Iowa rarely creates big plays. This is a Hawkeyes team that runs the ball and methodically moves the ball down the field.

This is the type of game where I see both teams having long drives that take away 7 or 8 minutes at a time. If they are forced to settle for a field goal a few times on those, as I believe they will, then the under becomes a nice value play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Notre Dame/Ohio State Total DOMINATION* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense didn't play up to expectations this year. First of all, the Buckeyes started the wrong quarterback for a very long time this year. Cardale Jones has a big arm, but he isn't the best fit for this system. J.T. Barrett gives the team a better runner and a more accurate passer. 

For the majority of the season, Ohio State couldn't pour on the points as expected, but they seem to have found something in their last game at Michigan. Ohio State played with much more uptempo looks and it helped them wear down the Wolverines defensive front. 

That's important here because Notre Dame's defense wasn't good against the run this year. Notre Dame gave up 4.52 yards per carry. Ezekiel Elliot and this Buckeyes ground game should have big day.

Notre Dame's offense has been underrated by many. I like their big play ability, and Ohio State hasn't faced teams with as many weapons as the Fighting Irish. The Buckeyes defense is very good, but with Notre Dame should break several big plays here.

The over is 6-0 in Notre Dame's last 6 following a loss. Take the over. 

*4 Star Michigan State/Bama MONEYMAKER* The Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan State Spartans play a similar style of football. That should mean a lot of excitement in the Cotton Bowl on Thursday night, especially if you like hard hitting football. I expect both of the defenses to bring their best effort in this one.

Michigan State needs this game to be low scoring, and they are going to bleed the clock on offense as much as possible. Michigan State ranks in the bottom 15 in the nation in terms of tempo. Alabama is also slower than the average pace in college football. With both teams expected to run the ball a lot, that is important because it means the clock will be ticking throughout much of this game.

Michigan State's defense has been amazing in the past four games. They have allowed 12.5 points per game against some quality competition during that time. Included was their domination against the Ohio State Buckeyes offense that is very talented. Alabama will be able to move the ball here, but I don't think it will come easy, and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals.

Michigan State's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and this Alabama defense has been the best in the nation all year long. I don't think Michigan State will be able to score many in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Orange Bowl Bookie BASHER* The Clemson Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners both have explosive offenses. Clemson and Oklahoma both play very quickly as well. Clemson plays at the 29th quickest pace in the country and Oklahoma plays at the 40th quickest tempo (out of 128 teams). With these quick tempo teams on the field together, we should see a lot of snaps and plenty of opportunities for big plays.

Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield has been great in the air raid system. I don't think Perine gets enough credit for how good he is at running back though. Since Oklahoma started being more balanced with Perine touching the ball more often, this offense has been much better. Oklahoma has scored 44 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Clemson has scored 33 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have the best player on the field in Deshaun Watson as well. The Clemson running game is solid, and I really like Jordan Leggett at tight end for Clemson.

The Clemson defense is giving up 27.17 points per game in their last six games. Oklahoma's defense has also given up a lot of big plays down the stretch. The offenses should have the upper hand.

The over is 20-8-1 in Oklahoma's last 29 games. The over is 7-2 in Clemson's last 9 games. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Holiday Bowl HEATER* The USC Trojans have transformed themselves into a team that primarily runs the football here late in the season. USC has slowed the tempo down as well. Early in the season they ranked in the top 20 in terms of tempo. Now, they are right in the middle of the pack at #61. 

Wisconsin is a team that runs the ball almost every play. They have to because Joel Stave is not a good quarterback. The Badgers running game has been much less productive this year than they have been in recent years.

With both teams running the ball constantly, the clock will be ticking throughout in this one. Both defenses are much better against the run than the pass. Wisconsin is only giving up 13.1 points per game on the year. I see a low scoring close game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Packers/Cardinals Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers offense has looked a bit better in the last couple weeks. McCarthy is now calling the plays and he has given the team better balance. The offensive line is still a problem, but they have been better than they were early in the season. 

Arizona's secondary took a huge hit when Mathieu went down with a season ending knee injury. The Packers passing attack should be good enough to exploit the Cardinals weakness there. Patrick Peterson will probably play here, but he is dinged up as well. 

The Green Bay defense is no better than average at this point, and Arizona's offense is tremendous. The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in total offense. Arizona has been picking apart just about every defense they have played. 

The over is 5-2 in Arizona's last 7 home games. Take the over. 

*5 Star NFL Game of the MONTH* The Kansas City Chiefs are playing at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. They are taking 33.5 seconds between plays, which is the longest mark in the league. Kansas City's offense isn't very good. They have been putting up some big point totals of late because the defense has been scoring points in large amounts. That has made this Chiefs team look better than they are, at least offensively if you are looking at things like points per game. 

Cleveland's defense has been a little better in recent weeks. The Browns run defense still isn't good, but they have been slightly better of late. The Browns secondary is solid. Kansas City is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot in this game and run the clock a lot. Cleveland has been running it a lot as well.

The weather is one of the big reasons I'm making this play as well. The forecast here is calling for rain throughout the game, and even more importantly, heavy winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 mph. That kind of weather is very good for under bettors.

The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 with less than 150 yards passing last game. The under is 4-0 in Kansas City's last 4 in Week 16. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. Top rated play. *NFL Game of the MONTH*

*4 Star CFB Saturday Night MONEY* The UCLA Bruins have a good young quarterback in Josh Rosen, and they go up against a Nebraska secondary that has struggled all year long. Nebraska ranks 122nd in the nation out of 128 teams against the pass. Look for Rosen to beat this secondary consistently with the pass. 

At the same time, Nebraska's offense has been very good down the stretch. The Cornhuskers have averaged 34 points per game in their last four contests. Armstrong and his receivers are getting more accustomed to Mike Riley's new offense. The Cornhuskers prefer to play quickly, and they like to use the no huddle package quite a bit. UCLA ranks as the 8th fastest paced team in the country as well.

UCLA's defense has been hit hard by the injury bug this year. Their two best players will miss this game. I see both offenses having a lot of scoring chances throughout. Take the over.  

*3 Star CFB Pinstripe Bowl Power Play* The Duke Blue Devils offense was up and down this year, but Duke plays at the ninth fastest tempo of anyone in the country. Indiana plays at the single fastest tempo of anyone in the country. There will be a bunch of snaps in this one, and the more snaps there are the more scoring opportunities come up. 

The Indiana defense is dreadful. How bad are they? Indiana's pass defense ranks dead last in the country. Opponents are throwing for more than 326 yards per game against them. Duke's passing game should look a lot better than usual against this Indiana defense. 

The Duke defense will be without star safety Jeremy Cash. Cash is the team's best defensive player, and he's a big loss. Indiana's offense is one of the most balanced in the country, and star running back Jordan Howard returning from an injury, Indiana is going to be even more dangerous. 

The over is 38-15-1 in Indiana's last 54 games. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Sun Bowl SMASHER* This is a matchup of two very good quarterbacks. I'm high on both Brad Kaaya and Luke Falk. They play in different systems, but both guys have done a really nice job progressing over the course of their careers.

Miami's offense has been pretty good since their blowout loss to Clemson. The Hurricanes finished the season strong, and they have a speed advantage on the outside here. Washington State's secondary should have trouble staying with these wideouts. 

Washington State's offense has all sorts of playmakers at the wide receiver spots. Luke Falk is the perfect quarterback for Mike Leach's system. Falk spreads the ball around and doesn't lock in on any one guy. The Cougars always like to play quickly in the Leach offense, and that won't change here.

Washington State's defense has certainly improved this year, but I'm still not convinced they are good. Miami's defense will be without two starters who were suspended for this game. 

Both offenses have a lot of big play ability. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Marshall Thundering Herd were a high powered offense in the past, but they aren't that anymore. Marshall took a huge step backward when Rakeem Cato graduated. Marshall ranks 64th in the nation in total offense. I think the perception is still out there that Marshall is a good offense because of what they did in the past, and that gives us value on the under.

UConn's defense has gotten so much better under Bob Diaco. The Huskies are giving up only 19.8 points per game. This is a unit that has been consistently very good all season long. Marshall's defense is only allowing 18.4 points per game. I think both offenses will have a difficult time getting things going in this one.

The under is 5-0 in UConn's last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing less than 170 passing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Marshall's last 4 following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss by 20 points or more. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed at least 20 points in each of their last 7 games. They have allowed 45 points in two of their last four games. Philadelphia's offense has been a little bit better of late, and the Eagles still play at the fastest pace of any team in the league by a wide margin. 

Arizona's offense has been amazing this year. Carson Palmer has been a star in this offense. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in total offense, and they are averaging 31.2 points per game. I think they'll be able to get a lot of big plays against this Eagles defense.

The Cardinals defense has been a bit disappointing of late. Arizona allowed 32 and 31 points in back to back weeks against Seattle and Cincinnati recently. They are a good defense, but they aren't elite like some thought they would be. Philadelphia will get a lot of snaps and opportunities here.

Take the over.  

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New England Patriots offense is very banged up right now. This is one of those games where I think it would make sense for the Patriots to simply get out healthy rather than worry about scoring everytime and winning big. Since I don't trust the Titans to be able to score on New England, I'm taking the under instead of the underdog.

The New England defense has been a lot better than people realize this year. New England ranks sixth in the NFL in total defense. They rank in the top ten in the NFL in both pass defense and run defense. This is a good balanced defense. 

The Titans have scored 14 points or less in 8 of their 13 games so far this year. I don't see them being able to score much here.

The weather could be a bit of a problem too. Winds of up to 20 mph could keep both teams running the ball more often than normal.

The under is 7-1 in the Titans last 8 December games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Titans last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more through the air last game. A 16-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears are both better on defense than they are on offense. Though Jay Cutler played better for a while this year, he is still Jay Cutler, which means he can't be relied on in big games. Minnesota's defense played very well last week against Arizona, and they have a great defensive head coach in Zimmer.

Minnesota's passing game is bad, which will allow Chicago to stack the box and make life difficult on Adrian Peterson. None of the last four meetings have gone above 43 points. In the last two meetings, no team has gained more than 330 yards of total offense. I think the defensive theme continues here.

The under is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 after a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the Bears and Vikings overall. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet on Saturday night in New Orleans. Louisiana Tech has a really good offense with Jeff Driskel (Florida transfer) and Kenneth Dixon at quarterback and running back. Driskel was a disappointment at Florida, but he's been great at Louisiana Tech. Arkansas State's Fredi Knighten and Michael Gordon are a really nice quarterback and running back combination too. Both of these teams have big play ability on offense.

When you look at the schedules these two teams played, they didn't play very many dynamic offenses, and when they did, they gave up a bunch of points. Louisiana Tech just gave up 58 points against Southern Miss in their last game. Arkansas State allowed 31 points or more five times this year, and this will be the second most talented offense they have faced this year. Both offenses in this game prefer to play at a quick tempo.

The over is 5-0 in Arkansas State's last 5 games after gaining more than 450 yards last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 40 points or more last game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground last game. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star BYU/Utah Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars and the Utah Utes absolutely hate each other. This is one of the meanest rivalries in college football today. Both teams should be plenty motivated here. We are going to see some very hard hitting action. 

Utah's offense is really banged up right now. The Utes are expected to be without star running back Devontae Booker here. Booker carries a massive load for this offense. He's averaged nearly 5 yards per carry in his career, and he is a workhorse. Britain Covey, Utah's best receiver and best kick returner is also doubtful for this one. That means there will be a lot more pressure on Travis Wilson. Wilson isn't a guy I trust very much, especially when he doesn't have enough weapons at the skill positions around him.

BYU's offense hasn't been able to run this year, and Utah presents a major challenge for the Cougars offense. Utah has a tremendous pass rush and the Utes also have a very good secondary. 

I see both offenses struggling in a close game throughout. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Bowl Season Kickoff CASH* The New Mexico Lobos have the home field advantage in this one, but they are at a significant talent disadvantage. Rather than get involved on the side in this game, I'm going with the over. New Mexico and Arizona are two rushing attacks that both make a bunch of explosive plays. I think we'll see a lot of long runs in this game.

Arizona ranks 4th in the nation in pace of play. The Wildcats are going to look to get off as many plays as they can quickly, and that's obviously very helpful for an over. New Mexico's defense has improved quite a bit this year, but they haven't faced many offenses with the type of talent Arizona has.

Arizona's defense is giving up 4.42 yards per carry this year. The Wildcats haven't allowed less than 30 points in a single game in their last six contests. They allowed 45 points or more five times this year.

The over is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 after allowing 450 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 non-conference games. The over is 7-1 in Arizona's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. A 15-1 angle. Take the over.  

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers are coming off a last second win over Detroit last week. Green Bay was certainly fortunate to get that win, and the Packers offense has shown in recent weeks that they have some major problems. Aaron Rodgers is still great, but the talent around him isn't good enough right now. Dallas' Sean Lee has been playing some great football, and he has helped this Dallas defense be much better since he has been healthy again. 

Dallas' offense is terrible with Cassel at quarterback. The Cowboys are going to have to run it early and often here, and Green Bay should be ready for the running game. Dallas plays at the slowest pace of play of any team in the NFL too, which is obviously helpful for the under.

The weather should be an issue here. There is a 90 percent chance of rain and 20-25 mph winds are expected too. Wind and rain is very difficult for the offenses. 

The under is 5-0 in the Cowboys last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a straight up win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Raiders/Broncos Total* The Denver Broncos have the best defense in the NFL. The secondary is amazing and the pass rush is the best in the league by a wide margin. Oakland's offensive line has been having some issues of late, and Derek Carr has looked shaky under pressure.

The Denver offense isn't very good regardless of who is at quarterback. The running game has been a bit better of late, but Oakland's defense has improved quite a bit in the past month. 

The first meeting between these two teams saw a 16-10 Denver win, but the Broncos scored the game winning touchdown on an interception return. Neither offense could get going in that one. Look for a low scoring game again. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Detroit Lions lost last week's game in awful fashion. Aaron Rodgers' hail mary completion to end the game will be remembered for years. Detroit did play well for the majority of that game, and their defense has been much improved in recent weeks.

Detroit allowed 16 in their win at Green Bay. They allowed 13 at home against Oakland. They then allowed 14 against the Eagles. Last week they gave up 27, but it would have been a decent 21 before that last play.

St. Louis' offense has been a joke of late. The Rams offensive line is banged up in a big way. St. Louis hasn't been able to pave the way for Todd Gurley to get going at all of late. Nick Foles was so bad last week that the Rams are going back to Case Keenum for this one. Keenum isn't a good option either. 

The Rams defensive line should get pressure on Matt Stafford, and the Lions can't run the football at all. Both teams play much slower than the league average in terms of pace of play. The public is betting the over at almost 70% and yet the line has dropped a half point. That's very telling.

The under is 7-1 in the Rams last 8. The under is 12-3 in the Lions last 15 road games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Buffalo Bills defense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Buffalo just isn't getting the job done on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's offense has obviously been disappointing too, but the Eagles play at the fastest tempo in the NFL and they should break some big plays on this Buffalo defense.

On the other side, Buffalo's offense has been far better than expected. Tyrod Taylor has been excellent. LeSean McCoy has all kinds of reasons to be very motivated for his chance to go against his former team here as well. The Eagles defense has been really bad against the run in recent weeks. Watkins has been a great playmaker for this offense.

This total is too low for these two teams. Good weather is expected for this one as well. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is locked in right now. On the other hand, the San Diego Chargers offense is a mess. These teams met in late November, and the Chiefs won that one 33-3. Kansas City's pass rush was all over Phillip Rivers in that game, and there's no reason to expect anything different in this game. In two of the Chargers last three games, they have put up only three points.

San Diego is the single most banged up offense in the NFL. The Chargers offensive line is a patched together group that isn't good at all. Rivers has next to one to throw the ball to with all sorts of wide receiver injuries. Kansas City should shut them down here.

Kansas City's offense is nothing spectacular. The 34 points they scored last week was leading since the defense directly led to most of those points. The Chiefs should grab a lead here and then milk the clock. Kansas City ranks 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL in pace of play.

The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in KC's last 7 after gaining 250 yards or less last game. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play SMASHER* The Army Cadets and the Navy Midshipmen renew their tremendous rivalry this Saturday. This one will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The Navy Midshipmen had a great season in their first year in the American Athletic Conference. Army has struggled once again to a 2-9 record. 

Navy and Army have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. It really makes a lot of sense. The single biggest advantage of running a triple option offense is that opposing defenses typically aren't accustomed to seeing it. That obviously isn't the case when these two teams play each other. The defenses work against triple option attacks every single day in practice.

Earlier this year, both of these teams played Air Force and both teams saw their games go under against Air Force. Army's game with Air Force was particularly telling. It was a 20-3 game that never got even close to the posted total. While Army's defense was bad overall this year, they did well against Air Force.

In the past nine years, there hasn't been a single game between these two finish with a higher total than 48 points.

The under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in Army's last 11 games in December. The under is 10-1 in Navy's last 11 games in December. The under is 5-0 in Navy's last 5 neutral site games. The under is 6-1 in Navy's last 7 on grass. A 40-3 angle. Take the under big.  This line is dropping through the week. I would play this for a top rated play down to 49 points. *TOP Rated Play*

*4 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The Washington Redskins have a real chance to be the outright leader in the awful NFC East. Washington would be my lean here as far as the side goes, but the public is pounding the Redskins and the line is dropping, which is a reason for me to stay away in this case. 

Instead, I'm playing the under. The Redskins and Cowboys rank 31st and 32nd out of 32 teams in the NFL in terms of pace of play. That means we'll see a lot of the play clock ticking very low before the snap in this one. 

Dallas knows they can't throw it very much with Cassel at quarterback, and I look to see a heavy diet of runs from the Cowboys. Washington's defense will be loading up the box. The Redskins offense has been pretty good at home, but Dallas' defense has solid numbers for the year overall.

These two teams are bitter rivals and they have played a lot of low scoring games against one another in recent years. 

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in Dallas' last 4 on grass. The under is 7-1 in the Cowboys last 8 following an ATS loss. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tennessee Titans are lacking playmakers on offense. Marcus Mariota is a good quarterback, but I don't think he has enough help right now. Tennessee generally likes to run the ball, but Jacksonville actually ranks first in the NFL in least yards per carry allowed this year 3.34 per attempt. 

Jacksonville's offense isn't great to start with either, and without Hurns at wide receiver this week, Bortles is going to have a difficult test. The Titans defense is an underrated unit that has been very good this year.

A couple weeks ago these teams played and their game stayed under the total. I think this one does too.

The under is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 December games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 21-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings can't throw the football with any kind of consistency, and that has been the way to beat the Seahawks this year. The Seattle front seven has still been doing a really nice job against the run. Minnesota's rushing attack is first in the NFL, but I think Adrian Peterson will find things a little tougher going than normal here.

Seattle runs the ball early and often, and their passing game lost a key weapon when Jimmy Graham went down with a knee injury last week. Look for the Seahawks to use the running game a bunch in this one, and Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense is a pretty good one. Minnesota is especially good on defense on their home turf.

The under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the under.