*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense had trouble getting going early in the season. MTSU has a great quarterback in Brent Stockstill and with Ty Lee on the outside he has a very good wide receiver to get the ball to. I was very impressed with MTSU's offense last week. Marshall is an excellent defense (best in the conference), and MTSU put up 34 points and 420 yards on them. MTSU was shut down by Vanderbilt and Georgia in the early going, but they aren't going to be facing defenses of that caliber anytime soon. MTSU pushes the pace, and I see no reason to expect FIU to slow them down much here.

FIU has been much better on offense than I expected them to be. James Morgan has fit in very well at quarterback. Morgan is averaging 9.79 yards per pass attempt. Him getting the ball up the field so much has really allowed this running game to have more success as well. FIU is 23rd in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

Conference USA is well known for its high scoring affairs. The totals move downward here doesn't make any sense to me. I see a game with quite a bit of tempo and two quarterbacks playing well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have adopted a new style of offense this year. Bronco Mendenhall's team is running the ball early and often. That plays into the Miami defensive strength though. Miami is 7th in the nation allowing only 2.73 yards per carry, and their defensive line is stacked with talent. The Virginia offensive front isn't likely to be able to get much of a push here.

Miami is running the ball on 61% of their plays this year. Perry has done a good job at quarterback now, but the offense has slowed down tempo-wise. 

We should see a bunch of running clock in this game, and both defenses have been better at stopping the run than the offenses have at running the ball. The matchups appear to favor the defense.

I would expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of the WEEK* The UTSA Roadrunners have the worst offense in college football. UTSA just won 20-3 against Rice, but they had only 178 yards of offense in that game. Their two touchdowns were on drives of 31 yards and 3 yards. Rice turned the ball over 4 times, and UTSA was handed their points in that one. UTSA is last in yards per play in the country. There are even clear signs of regression for their offense when it comes to scoring. UTSA has scored on 100% of their red zone trips so far this year. That can't continue. They are near the bottom in allowing sacks, so that puts them behind the chains often. The lack of explosive plays from UTSA is ridiculous. They have only 2 plays of 30 yards or more in six games! 

Louisiana Tech ranks 69th in the country in yards per play. They have been inconsistent this year. LA Tech has also been fortunate in that they have scored on 100% of their red zone trips this year. A sign of regression.  LA Tech's defense has been good though. They are 47th in the nation in yards per play allowed. It's hard to imagine UTSA scoring very many at all here. 

UTSA has always been good defensively under Coach Wilson. UTSA is a very physical team and they allow only 3.45 yards per carry. I expect LA Tech to get the lead here and as they try to salt this one away later in the game, the UTSA defense should hold their own. 

Last year, LA Tech beat UTSA 20-6. I expect another defensive battle here. 

Take the under. TOP Play. CFB TOP Total of the Week

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have two of the bottom ten defenses in the nation. UL Monroe's offense has underachieved so far this year, but I expect them to put up some big numbers in Sun Belt action. UL Monroe has scored in the red zone only 58.33% of the time this year. That can't continue long term. That's a number that is due for some positive regression. This team has quite a few weapons and they have a speed advantage over the Coastal Carolina defense.

Coastal Carolina's offense has been much more efficient this year. Joe Moglia being back has really changed things for this team. The triple option has been really effective, and they are up against a terrible ULM defense here. ULM is 128th in the nation out of 130 teams in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up 7.41 yards per play. 

Coastal Carolina's defense is second worst in the nation allowing 6.81 yards per carry on the season. Both of these defenses give up explosive plays by the bunches. Look for a lot of long plays from scrimmage here.

The over is 20-6 in ULM's last 26 conference games. The over is 12-5 in Coastal's last 17 games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Denton, Texas isn't expected to be good at all for this game. A temperature in the mid 60's with winds of 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph and heavy rain are forecast for Saturday. That's some miserable weather for two teams that are reliant on the passing game. While the under is always helped by wind and rain, it is much more of a benefit when you catch a spot where teams are normally passing teams and they must try to get something going on the ground. That's the spot here. 

Both of these defenses have been better this year. Despite playing a weak schedule, Southern Miss is 114th in the nation in yards per carry, so if they have to run the ball it isn't likely to go very well for them. North Texas lost their star in Wilson from the backfield last year. The Mean Green are 94th in the nation in yards per carry. The poor weather would at least somewhat neutralize the best player on the field (Mason Fine QB for North Texas) as well. 

The sharp money is clearly on the under here, and I fully agree. This line is about where it should be without any weather issues. There are clear weather issues in this one- and with two teams reliant on throwing it around, that makes a big difference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two offenses who have struggled quite a bit this season. New York is 20th in the NFL in yards per play. Philadelphia is all the way down at 25th in yards per play. 

The Eagles defense is a strong unit, and I think the Giants defense will improve as well.  Carson Wentz isn't himself yet, and Eli Manning just isn't a very good quarterback at this stage in his career.

The pace of play is key here. New York has played at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. Philadelphia ranks in the bottom ten in tempo as well.

Weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast calls for rain which is heavy at times and winds of 10-15 mph. That's a huge plus for the under.

The under is 5-1 in the Giants last 6 home games.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been the best in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore really impressed me on defense last weekend in their win at Pittsburgh. The Ravens are balanced on defense, and there is no real weakness to attack. The Ravens are first in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Cleveland gave up a ton of points last weekend, but the Browns defense is still a very solid unit. The Browns turnovers and some terrible calls by the refs inflated Oakland's point total last weekend some. Look at how well the Browns defended New Orleans in the Superdome and that says a lot. Cleveland ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

The AFC North has consistently been a very good division for the under. How good? The under is a whopping 57-33 (63.3%) in an AFC North game with a total of 41 points or higher since 2004. 

Both of these offenses aren't very explosive, and I see a defensive battle here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State defenses have been dominating this year. Both are extremely strong on the defensive front. What's the weakness of these offenses? The offensive line. That should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable, and lead to a lot of negative plays. Both of these offenses struggle when they get behind the sticks. 

Auburn's offense is only averaging 5.42 yards per play, which is 91st best in the country. Their offensive line has been a huge problem this year. 

Mississippi State is reliant on the run game, and Auburn's defense is 10th in the country allowing only 2.75 yards per carry.

A defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host the Kentucky Wildcats in a big SEC showdown on Saturday night. 

Kentucky's defense ranks 14th best in the nation allowing only 4.46 yards per play. Kentucky is 5th in pass defense (yards per play allowed). 

Kentucky will slow the tempo down as much as possible. They rank 118th in tempo in the country of 130.

Texas A&M also moves slowly at 106th in the country in tempo. The Aggies defense is better than their numbers would indicate. Alabama racked up a bunch of yards on this team.

With both teams preferring to run, the clock should keep moving here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and the ULM Warhawks both move quickly. They both rank in the top 40 in the nation in tempo. 

Ole Miss takes a lot of deep shots in the passing game. They have some tremendous wide receivers who will have a big advantage in this game. Ole Miss has a whopping 26 plays of 30 yards or more in only five games so far this year. The Rebels will get a bunch of explosive plays against this weak ULM defense. ULM ranks 116th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed.

The Ole Miss defense is very weak as well. The Rebels rank 102nd in yards per play allowed, and they are allowing 38 points per game this season. ULM's offense has underachieved some this year, and I think we'll see them put up plenty of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense has been tremendous this year. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are giving up only 2.67 ypc (8th best in country). Iowa's offense sits at 72nd in the country in yards per play. Iowa is only 89th in yards per carry offensively this year. 

Minnesota ranks 120th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 3.63 yards per carry. They have suffered some serious injury problems at the running back spot. This Minnesota team doesn't have enough playmakers on offense to score much on good defense, and this is the best defense they have played yet by a large margin.

Both of these teams run the ball about 61% of the time on offense. Both teams rank among the 25 slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo. There will be a lot of running the ball and playing slowly, which will eat away at the clock here.

Both of the last two years this matchup has stayed well under the posted total. Winds of 10-12 mph are in forecast and that helps the under a bit as well.

It's a low number, but it's low for a reason.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan offense is a mess this year. The Chippewas are 128th in the country in yards per play on offense. They have a weak offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions on offense. Central Michigan has only 8 plays of 20 yards or more all season. 

Buffalo has a good quarterback in Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls have a very weak offensive line and a subpar rushing attack. 

As bad as the Central Michigan offense is, the defense has been great. They are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Their strong defensive line has a big edge in this game. Central Michigan should be able to get heat on Jackson in this game.

Buffalo is 32nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Bulls have a good pass rush and are a well-balanced defense.

The weather could play a role here. A 60% chance of rain is in the forecast and 10 mph winds. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Huskies and the BYU Cougars play a similar style of football. Both are very physical teams, and both prefer to run the football and use up the clock. There should be a lot of running clock in this one, and the defenses are the strengths of both teams.

BYU is 106th out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Washington is 101st in tempo. Both defenses have been elite at not giving up big plays this year. BYU has only allowed 4 plays of 30 yards or more in four contests. Washington has only allowed a single play of 30 yards or more in four contests. 

BYU wants to establish the run with Squally Canada, but Washington will likely feel good enough about their pass defense to commit a little extra help in the box here. 

Jake Browning has regressed at quarterback, and this BYU defense should do a good job holding their own on the defensive line.

The under is 6-0 in BYU's last 6 vs. a Pac 12 opponent. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 275 yards last game. A 27-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense will be much better with Book at quarterback now. Wimbush made too many mistakes and was just very inconsistent. 

This Notre Dame team is going to push the pace. Book talk about how much the coaching staff wanted him to push the pace last week, and he followed the directions well. Notre Dame ranks 21st in the nation in tempo.

Stanford is a much slower paced team, but they are an offense that has big play capability. The Cardinal have a much better passing attack than they have had in most years, and that gives them balance. 

This game finished 38-20 last year, and I see both offenses as better than last year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UTSA is second to last in the nation in yards per play so far this year. UTEP is 8th worst out of 130 teams. These are two really bad offenses. 

UTSA has been strong defensively for the past few years, and I expect them to be very good against the pass this year. UTEP doesn't have much of a running game.

The UTEP defense is improved from last year, and they aren't giving up as many big plays thus far. 

UTEP ranks 123rd out of 130 teams in the nation in tempo. Look for an ugly low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is very inconsistent, but their defense is very good. The Bulldogs actually played pretty well on defense last week against Kentucky. The strength of this Bulldogs defense is their defensive front. Florida is pretty reliant on the running game, and they are unlikely to have much success there.

Both of these teams are playing at a slower pace than average, and these are two strong defenses. The Florida offense hasn't been nearly as good as their points per game look. They have benefited from a bunch of short fields and special teams touchdowns. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense hasn't been up to par so far this year, but I expect them to get their ground game going as they almost always do. They have multiple solid options at quarterback.

Nevada has a great quarterback for their pass heavy system in Ty Gangi. I expect Nevada to put up some big numbers in MWC play this year. Nevada is averaging an impressive 6.54 yards per play this year, and they are 17th quickest in the country in terms of tempo.

Nevada is 87th in yards per play allowed and Air Force is 97th. 

When these teams met last year, Air Force won 45-42. It was no fluke that it was really high scoring either. Air Force had 591 yards offense and Nevada had 424 yards. 

I don't see any reason to expect things to change in this year's matchup. A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense has been a really nice surprise this year. With Thomas at quarterback, they seem to have found a guy who knows the system really well and can make the right decisions. Moore gives this team a really good running back with the ability to break one at any time. Appalachian State is 6th in the nation in yards per play this year. This offense showed what they can do in that impressive season opener against Penn State. 

South Alabama has decided to pick up the tempo this year. The Jaguars rank 42nd in the nation in tempo. They have gotten much better than expected quarterback play from Evan Orth. He threw for 360 yards on just 32 pass attempts against Memphis last week. 

The South Alabama defense is weak. They have allowed a bunch of big plays this year. South Alabama has given up 28 plays of 20 yards or more in the early going this year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

This number has been beaten down too far.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* It's hard to overstate how bad this UConn defense has been. UConn is dead last in the nation in every key defensive statistic. UConn is allowing a ridiculous 9.22 yards per play. They are allowing 7.97 yards per carry, which is easily worst in the nation. 

Cincinnati's defense is solid, but I think their defensive numbers look better than they truly are right now for a couple key reasons. They played one game (against Miami OH) in a driving rainstorm with 20mph. That makes the job a lot easier for the defense. Second, they played an Alabama A&M team that is awful. 

The Cincinnati offense has gotten better week by week, and they should move easily against UConn as everyone else has. UConn hasn't allowed less than 49 points in a game this year and that includes a game against Rhode Island (FCS school). 

David Pindell is now probable to play here, and the UConn offense is good enough that they should contribute enough here.

This number has gotten too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring on this Detroit Lions defense. The Lions defense isn't good to start with, and the guess from most is that Darius Slay, their top corner, is unlikely to play this Sunday night. He suffered a head injury last weekend, and most players with similar injuries have missed at least one game. The Lions don't have any depth in the secondary, and the Patriots can take advantage.

On the other side, Blake Bortles just carved up this Patriots secondary. Matt Stafford has been good on the turf, and I think he'll find a lot of open receivers in this one. New England has shown defensive weakness in the past year, and a team like Detroit that airs it out often should be able to move the ball on this unit.

The over is 8-2 in the Lions last 10 home games. The over is 5-1 in the Lions last 6 after a loss.

Look for a lot of big plays and a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* Arizona State is 97th in the nation in yards per carry so far this year. They haven't been able to establish anything on the ground, and I don't see that changing here. The Sun Devils offensive line should be in for a long night against the Washington defensive front here. Washington is loaded with top end talent on the defensive line. 

Manny Wilkins isn't consistent at the quarterback spot. The Sun Devils didn't even get a first down in the second half until there was about 3 minutes left against San Diego State last week. They face an even better defense here. 

Washington's offense hasn't been clicking all that well this year. Jake Browning has been out of sync and the Huskies lack big playmakers on the outside. Arizona State's defense is much improved this year with Herm Edwards and Danny Gonzales here running the 3-3-5. 

I see Washington getting a safe lead here and then running the ball consistently and burning up the clock. Petersen's teams have a history of being very conservative with big leads in the second half. 

The under is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense let them down in the second half against Arizona State. The Sun Devils put together two long drives to win in the fourth quarter. Michigan State has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and I expect a much better defensive performance from a team coached by Mark Dantonio.

Michigan State ranks 120th in the nation, so they will be slowing things down a lot here. Indiana was top five in the nation in tempo last year, but they are down to an averaged paced tempo this year. 

Indiana has a strong defensive line, and Michigan State is banged up on the offensive front. LJ Scott is questionable for this game as well, and without him Michigan State is far less potent on offense. 

Both Michigan State and Indiana's offenses have been slightly worse than the average offense in the country. 

Last year's meeting was 17-9 and an epic defensive struggle. The year before that they went into overtime at 21-21 (it was 7-0 at halftime). These teams have a history of low scoring games against each other. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles had a week off after a cancellation due to Hurricane Florence. Their offense gets a boost as Kwadra Griggs is eligible to return at quarterback here. Since Jack Abraham has played so well at QB, Griggs will have to share time with him. 

Southern Miss' offense will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in the Rice Owls. Rice is allowing 6.01 yards per carry. Their secondary might be even worse though. They are giving up a whopping 10.0 yards per pass completion. Rice has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just three games. 

The Rice offense is better than last year. The Owls are a respectable 83rd in the country in yards per play. They have an improved backfield and I think they can break some big gainers in the run game here.

The last two years the score has been 44-28 Southern Miss and 43-34 Southern Miss when these two teams met. Southern Miss put up more than 500 yards of offense last year.

This total has been bet down, and I'll gladly take the over at this low number with a questionable Southern Miss defense and a terrible Rice defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores have a much improved passing attack. Vanderbilt gained 420 yards against Notre Dame last week, and the Commodores just blew all sorts of chances to score in the red zone. They should have won that game.

South Carolina is playing much faster this year. The Gamecocks rank 29th in the country in tempo so far this season. With Samuel healthy again, Jake Bentley has an elite weapon to get the ball to and that should make a big difference.

Last year, both of these teams were worse on offense and played slower and their meeting was a 34-27 South Carolina win. 

Maybe Vanderbilt's defense is a little better this year, but I'm not convinced it is as good as it looks on paper so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Which team is dead last in the nation in yards per play so far this year? It's the Northern Illinois Huskies. This Northern Illinois offense wants to rely on the run. They are running the ball more than 61% of the time this year. They just aren't any good at running the football though. The strength of the Florida State defense is their run defense. Florida State ranks 34th in the country, allowing only 3.31 yards per carry on the year thus far.

Florida State's offensive line is a mess right now. It's about as bad of an offensive line as any Power 5 conference has. What's the strength of the Northern Illinois defense? It's clearly their defensive line led by Sutton Smith. Smith is going to be in the Florida State backfield early and often in this one.

This projects as a 20-13 type of game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers have a tremendous defensive front. Georgia Tech is a team that has to run the football. They have virtually no passing game. Georgia Tech runs on about 77% of their offensive plays. The Yellow Jackets average a little better than 7 yards per carry, but they shouldn't get anywhere near that amount in this contest.

Clemson has been excellent at stopping the triple option of Georgia Tech in recent years. The Yellow Jackets have had 230, 124, and 230 total yards of offense in their last three games against Clemson. Clemson beat Tech 26-7 and 24-10 the last two seasons. The Tigers are a bit vulnerable in the secondary this year, but this is the best defensive line they have had. Clemson also faced a triple option team last week. They should be ready. 

Georgia Tech's defense is showing signs of improving under new coordinator Nate Woody. He did a great job at Appalachian State, and he should do a good job in the long run here too. Tech ranks 53rd in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year.

With Clemson running at a 56% clip on the year and Georgia Tech running the ball on nearly every play, there will be a bunch of running clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks offense has been bad this year, but this is their chance to breakout of their funk. Miami's offensive numbers are skewed right now. They played a game in torrential rain and wind against Cincinnati and scored 0 points. They then scored 3 against a good Big Ten defense in Minnesota. 

Miami now goes up against a terrible Bowling Green defense. Bowling Green is allowing 7.32 yards per play on the year. That is 123rd in the country. Bowling Green has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. The Falcons allowed 29 points and a whopping 612 yards against Miami last year. The year before Miami put up 40 points on them.

Bowling Green's offense likes to push the tempo, and I think Doege is a good fit for this scheme. In the same way that their offensive stats are skewed to the downside, Miami's defensive stats look better than they should. That torrential rain and wind game helped their numbers. Also, Minnesota has a really weak offense this year. Marshall put up 35 points on Miami in the season opener. 

This is an awfully low total for a Bowling Green game. I think both offenses move the ball well here.

The over is 7-0 in Bowling Green's last 7 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. A 17-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is better this year than last. Georgia has a much more balanced attack. They have playmakers on the outside, and they have a quarterback who is comfortable in the system and has experience. Georgia ranks sixth in the nation in yards per play on offense so far this year. 

Missouri is in the top 20 in the nation in tempo. Derek Dooley has this offense playing quickly again, and Drew Lock looks great in this new offense. Missouri is 27th in the nation in yards per play, and they'll look to push the pace here.

The Georgia defense is down a notch from last year, and Missouri's defense isn't good at all. 

Georgia had 696 yards of total offense against Missouri last year. The final score there was 53-28 in favor of Georgia. I think both defenses are a little worse this year, and both offenses are definitely more efficient.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Demon Deacons will have their quarterback back for this game, and that should make a big difference. Their offense will become more efficient.

Notre Dame's tempo ranks 35th in the country. The Fighting Irish have been disappointing on offense thus far, but they go against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 95th in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame should get their running game going in a big way here.

With lots of pace from each side, I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys have a great running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Dak Prescott has a major shortage of weapons in the passing game though. Until Dallas proves they can complete something deep, I expect teams to stack the box just like Carolina did last week and force Dallas to beat them through the air. The Giants defense should much improved this season. I would expect them to get some pressure on Prescott here when he does throw.

The Giants offensive line is once again a weakness. Barkley busted one big run against Jacksonville, but overall he struggled to find space. Eli Manning isn't good at quarterback at this point in his career, and he'll be under a lot of pressure here.

Both of these teams are playing at a slow tempo. Dallas is especially slow. The Cowboys will be running the ball a lot and when they are going to wait so long between plays, it is a big boost for the under.

Dallas has scored 10 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games. 

The under is 5-0 in the Cowboys last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins might be without Speight here, but I like freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his dual-threat ability. The Bruins will obviously play fast with Chip Kelly as their new coach. 

Fresno State's defensive front isn't as strong as it was a year ago. The Bulldogs won't be bad on defense, but they won't be as strong as they were a year ago. Fresno State hasn't played a good offense yet this year. 

The Fresno State offense will be better than it was a year ago. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback and a great offensive-minded head coach. Look for Fresno State to speed up their tempo some this season as well. UCLA's defense is a major weakness, and I think Fresno State can move the ball on a consistent basis here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils picked up a huge win over Michigan State last weekend. Herm Edwards' team deserves a lot of credit for how they have started out the season. I've been most impressed with Arizona State's run defense. The Sun Devils have allowed only 1.07 yards per carry so far this year. Stuffing UTSA didn't mean too much, but Michigan State averaged only 2.33 yards per carry last weekend. 

Arizona State's defensive coordinator was San Diego State's defensive coordinator last year. I think that really helps them on defense this weekend. San Diego State is without their starting quarterback here. The Aztecs rank in the bottom 5 in the country in pace of play. They will run the ball a bunch here, and that will keep the clock moving. I don't think San Diego State can throw it enough to keep Arizona State's defense honest.

Rocky Long's defenses seem to always be well-prepared. The Arizona State offensive line is a bit weak, and I expect San Diego State to be able to get in the backfield pretty often here and put Arizona State in 2nd and 3rd and long situations. 

Arizona State played so quickly last year, and they are a different team with Herm Edwards as their coach now. I don't think the market is accounting for that change enough right now.

The under is 20-8-1 in San Diego State's last 29 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have a potent offense with Drew Lock at quarterback and plenty of playmakers on the outside. Missouri is playing very quickly again this year, and Purdue's defense is much weaker than it was last season.

Purdue's offense is going to be better with Jeff Brohm leading the way. Brohm is a great offensive mind, and I fully expect him to be able to get the passing game going. Rondale Moore is a great weapon to have as well.

With both teams pushing the pace and throwing the ball often- I see this one getting over the posted total.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen will have a great passing attack this year. FIU's weakness on defense is their secondary. FIU has a strong offensive line. What's UMass' defensive weakness? Their defensive front is easy to run the football against.

These two teams met in the final game of the season last year. FIU won that one 63-45. FIU rolled up a ridiculous 674 yards of total offense. FIU ran for 379 yards (7.7 yards per carry). UMass totaled 548 yards, and they threw for 392 yards in that one. 

I don't like to make too much of a game from last year, but it was the final game of the season last year, and both offenses showed they can easily exploit the weakness of the opposing defense. 

Even without last year's contest, I would like the over here. UMass should finish the season in the top 30 or so in pace of play this year, and FIU is right about middle of the pack in tempo. Both defenses have proven vulnerable to big plays. I see a back and forth affair here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kansas State relies heavily on the running game, and they rank in the bottom 15 in the country in terms of tempo. There is always a lot of running clock and long drives in Kansas State contests.

UTSA lost a bunch of talent on offense from last year. The Roadrunners are going to have trouble scoring all season long. So far this year, UTSA is averaging a miserable 3.49 yards per play on the season. That is worst in Conference USA through the first two games.

Both teams are better at stopping the run than the pass in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have a fantastic passing attack led by Mason Fine. Arkansas has some major defensive issues. They allowed a bunch of big plays against a weak Colorado State offense last weekend. North Texas should surprise a lot of people with a bunch of big passing plays here.

Arkansas has a good quarterback for Chad Morris' system. The Razorbacks are looking to push the pace more and more every game. While the North Texas offense is very good, their defense is weak. North Texas struggled all year last season with giving up too many big plays.

Lots of explosive plays from both sides.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers always rank in the bottom ten in the nation in terms of pace of play. BYU ranks on the lower end in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of running plays in this game, and with both teams letting the clock roll between plays it will certainly help the under.

BYU couldn't do anything on offense against Cal last week at home. The Cougars got a fumble recovery run back for a touchdown, but had 3 points on offense until the final minute of the game. They scored a TD with less than a minute left with Cal in their prevent defense. Cal's defense is pretty good, but the Wisconsin Badgers defense is clearly stronger. I would be surprised if BYU gets much at all here.

Wisconsin is a very run heavy team. They will run the ball 65-70% of the time this year. They have a great running game, but BYU's defensive strength is definitely stopping the run. The Cougars have a strong front 7. Wisconsin will get their yardage here, but I think BYU does better slowing them down than most teams do. Expect long drawn out drives for Wisconsin.

A 31-10 type of game here with the under showing value.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers and Ohio Bobcats meet on Saturday. This total has been beaten down in a big way because of the Hurricane Florence threat. Even if this game is played in Virginia, I think there is some value on the over. However, multiple sources now indicate that this game will be played in Nashville at a neutral site. Beat writers for both teams have reported this.

This is a game that I believe should have a total in the mid 50's given a normal weather day. When a total is this much below that number, I have to fire with a bigger play. 

Ohio's defense is going to be much weaker than they were a year ago. How bad could they be? Ohio allowed a whopping 645 yards to Howard in their first game.

A quick tempo from the Bobcats and a solid Virginia run offense.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in the season opener. Cleveland should be much more competitive this year. The Browns were great against the run last year, and they clearly upgraded their secondary in the offseason. Cleveland has some very nice young talent in the secondary.

Pittsburgh will be without Le'Veon Bell for this one, and he has been such a big part of their success both on the ground and in the air. While Pittsburgh's defense is questionable, I don't think the Browns have the kind of weapons to expose their weaknesses all that much.

The weather here looks very good for an under. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds and rain during this game. The winds are the key and I expect this number to drop if the forecast stays the same.

The under is 11-2 in the Browns last 13 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Cleveland.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast plays a major role in this being an under play for me. Baltimore is expected to have 15-20 mph winds and steady rain on Sunday. That's a big plus for the under. It is the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moving through, and the timing appears to be right for Baltimore to be damp and breezy during this contest. 

The Buffalo Bills offense should endure some real struggles this year. They have a new system and Nathan Peterman is under center. I would have expected the game plan in week one to be pretty conservative for Buffalo's offense here no matter what, but with the weather it will likely be even more conservative. The Ravens defense should be better against the run this year, and they'll load up the box in this one.

Baltimore's offense is likely to be better this year, but in week one I don't expect huge things. Buffalo's defense has been pretty good at not giving up big plays, and Baltimore is likely to lean on the run more in this game than in most later in the year. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants meet on Sunday afternoon in the season opener. The Giants offense will have a new look under Mike Shula as their OC. Look for the Giants to try much harder to establish the run. They ended up throwing the ball 62% of the time last year. I don't expect a repeat of that. The Giants also played at the second fastest pace in the NFL last year. That should change with Shurmur and Shula in charge. They will look to hold the ball and give their defense a break.

Jacksonville's defense is clearly a top three defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have the best secondary in the NFL, and they aren't likely to give up many big plays in the passing game here. The Giants aren't good enough on the offensive line to hold this Jacksonville pass rush back either.

Jacksonville ran the ball more than any other team in the league last year. That will likely be the case again this year. They will look to run the ball as much as possible and create play action spots for Bortles rather than slinging it around. Not having Marqise Lee in the passing game this year hurts this offense badly.  The Giants run defense is likely to be better this year with the addition of Ogletree. 

The weather here is a bit questionable too. While there isn't any major rain in the forecast, there are sustained 12 mph winds here which gives the under a bit of a boost as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats picked up a big upset victory over UCLA. Cincinnati didn't win because of their offense though. Despite going up against a weak UCLA defense, Cincinnati's offense couldn't get much done. Cincinnati averaged only 3.65 yards per play and finished with 285 total yards. The Bearcats still don't have an identity on offense. Defensively, the Bearcats have a much improved defensive line, and I think they could give the Miami offensive line trouble in this game.

This game is played at Paul Brown Stadium where the Bengals played so it is a neutral site. The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are expected to move into Cincinnati on Saturday night. The weather forecast is calling for winds of around 15 mph and a good chance of rain especially later in this game. That could make both teams run the ball more than they typically would. Offenses who are predictable clearly help the defense in a big way.

This is a big rivalry game, and last year's game was dominated by the defenses.  My numbers liked this under a decent amount even without the weather being factored in. With the weather being factored in, I think this is a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Indiana hosts Virginia in a Big 10 vs. ACC battle in Bloomington on Saturday night. Indiana is without their best running back in Morgan Ellison, who is suspended. Indiana has a new quarterback and I would expect the Hoosier to be a run heavy team this year behind a solid offensive line.

Virginia is implementing a new offense this year after star QB Kurt Benkert moved on. They have a youngster at QB who is not a good passer. They will look to run the ball much more this year with both their mobile QB and their running backs. The problem for Virginia is their offensive line is a weakness. Indiana's defensive line is clearly the strength of their defensive unit. Virginia isn't likely to be able to run the ball on them much here. 

The Virginia secondary is the strength of the defense, and I don't think Indiana will try to test them very often. 

Neither team is likely to be effective in the passing game especially with the weather forecast. There is a 90% of chance of rain which could be heavy and 15 mph winds from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon. One-dimensional teams are much easier to defend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have a totally different system on offense this year. Derek Dooley is the OC and they will be more of a pro-style offense with much less tempo than last year. I expect their games to be lower scoring than they were last season. 

The market has already moved this line down a good amount, and it is largely due to the weather. The forecast calls for 13 mph winds sustained throughout the game and some light rain.

Wyoming's passing attack is virtually non-existent, and the way to beat this Missouri defense is through the air. Missouri should be strong against the run this year. Wyoming will try to run it down their throat and control the ball for as long as possible. 

The Wyoming defense returns its top six tacklers from a year ago. The final score in their loss to Washington State last week is a little misleading, since Washington State scored 21 points in the last 11 minutes of the game. Washington State had only 394 yards of total offense.

I like both defensive lines here and with questionable weather and slower pace from both I'll take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* It's not easy to play a Navy under after the way their defense looked against Hawaii last week, but at this number I have to. Navy plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country (only Army is slower). They are going to run the football on more than 90% of their plays this year. 

The Memphis offense will be good this year, but they won't be as explosive as they were a year ago with Riley Ferguson at quarterback. Memphis will look to run the football more often. Though Memphis will still play quickly, I do expect them to be a bit slower than last year.

The Navy secondary is the weakness of their defense and Hawaii had the perfect scheme to take advantage of that. Navy is much better defensively on the front seven. I also feel that Navy is a very well coached team and I would be surprised if this unit doesn't show a lot of fight and perform better this week. 

These two teams have played each of the last 4 years, and none of those games have gone over this total. There is some recency bias in this total. I'll go under this high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a tremendous defensive line. That should make it very hard for Kansas State to do much on offense here. I don't see Kansas State as a team that will be able to throw the ball much this season. They will look to run constantly and the Bulldogs have a big edge on the defensive front. 

Kansas State typically does a good job on the defensive front, and I think they can hold their own enough to slow down the Bulldogs rushing game enough here.

Both of these teams will be much slower than the average team in terms of tempo, and there should be a lot of moving clock in this one with a bunch of rushing attempts. I believe this number should be closer to 50.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils have a new offensive coordinator and a new head coach this year. I think they are likely to play a little slower on offense. Arizona State also has a new defensive coordinator in Danny Gonzales and he has implemented the 3-3-5 defense that he led at San Diego State. I think that will help the Sun Devils improve on this side of the ball.

UTSA lost a ton on offense. They return only 4 starters this year. They scored 9 points or less in three of their last four games last season. The Roadrunners play at a very slow tempo, and the offense is likely to be very weak this year. UTSA is coached by a defensive minded guy in Frank Wilson. Wilson has improved this defense in a big way, and I think they will be solid yet again. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs beat the North Texas Mean Green 54-32 last year. Both of these teams were racking up big gain after big gain. Both SMU and North Texas ranked in the top 40 in the country in pace of play last year. SMU will likely play even quicker under Sonny Dykes this year, and North Texas has a veteran quarterback in Mason Fine, which likely means an even faster pace as he knows the system very well now.

Mason Fine is going to put up some big numbers this year. North Texas has some great receivers and Fine has all the tools. SMU is weak in the secondary and Fine should pick them apart here.

North Texas allowed 16 plays of 50 yards or more last year. The Mean Green defense are aggressive and can force some turnovers, but the trade off is allowing a bunch of big plays. Only one team in the country allowed more plays of 50 yards or more (Tulsa). SMU should have big play ability with a veteran at quarterback like Hicks.

The weather is forecast to be hot and humid on Saturday in Texas. Warm weather has been a nice boost to the over in past years. 

The offenses have big advantages in this one, and both teams will pass heavy so there will be more clock stoppages. Back and forth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Washington/Auburn Moneymaker* The Auburn Tigers return only one starter on the offensive line from last year. Auburn must also replace their top two running backs from a year ago. The Auburn running game that was terrific last year will be down several notches this year. Washington's defensive front is likely to make it very difficult for Auburn to get anything going on the ground here. Auburn has a good quarterback in Stidham, but he'll be under pressure often in this one, and Washington's secondary is one of the best in the country.

Washington likes to lean on their running game in big games. Auburn's defensive front is one of the four or five best in the country. Washington's offensive line is at a clear disadvantage here. Jake Browning will have to make plays in the passing game, and last year he was inconsistent especially against top defenses and away from home. 

Washington ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in tempo last year, and I expect them to be fairly slow again this year. Auburn was slower than the average team as well. Both teams are run heavy and the clock should keep ticking a lot in this game. 

A hard hitting close game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Stanford Cardinal aren't the same team they were a few years ago. Stanford was known for being tremendous on the defensive front a few years ago. They were consistently piling up 45 or 50 sacks. They were holding teams to 2.9, 3.0, and 3.1 yards per carry. Not anymore. Stanford allowed 4.6 ypc last year, and they had only 32 sacks. Last year's defense was easily the worst in the past six years for Stanford, and the defensive line for Stanford is a big question mark this year. 

Stanford hasn't had a really good quarterback since Andrew Luck was here, but KJ Costello should do very well for them. Costello came on in a big way at the end of last season. He had 14 TD's and only 4 picks last year. As Costello took over at QB later last year, this offense immediately started putting up better numbers. They scored 30 in an upset win over Washington. They put up 38 against Notre Dame. They scored 37 against a good TCU defense in their bowl game.

San Diego State's offensive line is better than Stanford's defensive front. Washington will be a good running back for the Aztecs this year. Chapman has experience at quarterback as well. They should be able to move the ball here.

Bryce Love ran wild against San Diego State last year, and he should be great again here. Stanford should run the ball really well here.

It's a low total where the public is actually taking the under. That's fine with me. The perception of Stanford and San Diego State as defensive teams has this total set at a low number.I'll take the contrarian over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies offense couldn't get a first down for nearly two quarters at home against Wyoming last week. This Aggies offense was fortunate to get 7 points last game, and now they face a Minnesota team with a strong defensive front. New Mexico State's weakness is their offensive line. 

Minnesota ranked 120th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo last year. They have a freshman quarterback, and they are very likely to want to keep things vanilla in this game. New Mexico State should be ready for the run game here.

New Mexico State's defense improved a bunch last year, and I think they will be pretty good again this year. Against a one-dimensional offense they should hold their own here.

New Mexico State played quickly last year, but they appeared to be wanting to slow things down a bit this year with a new quarterback and running back.

Winds of about 15 mph are forecast for this game, and that's enough to change the game some and help the under as well.

Take the under. 

*2 Star NFL Super Bowl Totals Takedown* The Philadelphia Eagles offense should be able to gash the New England Patriots for some big plays here. Nick Foles isn't great, but he's a good backup and is up against a Patriots defense that is average. The Eagles have a strong offensive line and they should get a solid push in the running game.

The Patriots passing game should work really well here. The Eagles don't have a great pass rush, and they have struggled at defending both slot receivers and tight ends. The Patriots have the best tight end and best slot receiver in the NFL. Add in the Pats running backs ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and we should see a big day from Tom Brady. Remember, this Patriots offense hasn't been this healthy in a long time.

This game is played in a dome, so weather is no factor at all. Both teams have good kickers as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles meet in Philadelphia to decide who will play in the Super Bowl and represent the NFC.

Minnesota ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed on the year. The Vikings have one of the best defensive minds in football as their head coach. I think they'll have a great game plan ready defensively. 

Philadelphia's defensive front is excellent with Fletcher Cox leading the way. This Eagles defense played great in the home underdog role last week, and I expect a strong effort again.

Both of these teams play at a pace slower than the league average. Both teams have backup quarterbacks at the helm, and I expect pretty vanilla game plans on offense. 

This sets up as a field position game, and a game where there are likely to be a lot of field goal attempts rather than touchdowns. Both of these defenses have been good at limiting touchdowns in key spots.

This is a low under, but it is low for a reason. Expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have Nick Foles at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz for this one, and that's clearly a big step down. The Atlanta Falcons offense hasn't been nearly as dominant this year as it was last season. They miss Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator.

Atlanta has been an under machine of late. All six of their last six games have gone under. Five of them have been under this low total. The Falcons defense is one of the most improved in the NFL. 

The Eagles rank 8th in yards per play allowed this year. Their defensive front should get pressure on Matt Ryan who is playing behind a banged up offensive front.

The weather here could be a real problem. Winds are expected to be about 15 mph during the game with gusts of 25 mph. That changes the game and it certainly helps the under. Look for more conservative play calling and the defenses will load up the box more often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs played in a really high scoring game against Oklahoma, but I don't think we'll see anything like that in the title game.

Georgia plays at the 127th ranked tempo out of 130 teams. Alabama's tempo is 95th out of 130. Georgia is playing at an extremely slow pace, and Alabama prefers to play slowly as well.

Georgia runs the ball on 71% of their plays from scrimmage for the season. Alabama runs it on 66% of their plays from scrimmage. Two teams pounding the ball and using the clock is ideal for an under as long as you have defenses that can stop the run.

Adjusted for strength of schedule played- Alabama's run defense ranks first in the country in run defense. Georgia ranks ninth. 

These two secondaries are both excellent as well, and neither of these passing games are particularly dynamic especially when it comes to creating big plays.

This should be a hard hitting contest where the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs started the season by dominating on offense through being more aggressive with play calling. Kansas City has a ton of skill position weapons, and they were utilizing them well. They got cautious again in the middle of the season, and they slumped. Late in the season, they changed play callers and things improved again. I expect some more aggressive play calling here.

The Titans secondary has been a major weakness down the stretch. I expect Kansas City to be able to get some big plays through the air. Kansas City is second in the NFL in yards per play this year. 

The Kansas City defense isn't good. Eric Berry is a huge loss for this defense, and the Chiefs allowed 5.6 yards per play on the year, which was 26th in the NFL.

Marcus Mariota does have some weapons on the outside and if they get behind which they likely will here, look for some more aggressive play calling from the Titans as well.

Both defenses have been vulnerable to big plays, and this total is set at a low number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New York Giants host the Washington Redskins in a game where both teams fell far short of expectations for the season. There are no playoff implications here.

When you look back in the last ten years, teams who are not going to be part of the playoffs meeting in week 17 has been slightly positive for the under.

The weather here should play a major role. The temperature is expected to be about 15 degrees during this game. The sustained winds will be at 12-14 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. It's going to be a nasty day, and that should make the two offenses more predictable.

The important part here is if the two teams have to run, neither of them are any good at it. I expect a bunch of punts in this one. 

Both offensive lines are badly banged up, and neither quarterback has any of their star receivers left.

The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Florida Hurricanes defense has been tremendous this year. Miami's defensive front has been excellent, and that should help them against a good Wisconsin running game.

Wisconsin ranks 11th in the nation in most runs as a percentage of their overall play selection. The Badgers are going to try to run the ball early and often here. Miami is likely to be able to at least slow them down quite a bit here. Miami is allowing 3.53 yards per carry this year. In their last six games, they are allowing less than 2.7 yards per carry.

The Miami offense scored only 17 points in their last two games. Miami has relied on turnovers much of the year, and their offense is too reliant on the passing game. Miami hasn't been able to run the ball very well. This Wisconsin defense is third in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Miami plays at an average tempo. Wisconsin is the third slowest team in the country in terms of pace of play. The Badgers will have some long clock eating drives that should help the under a lot.

The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 bowl games. The under is 45-20 in Miami's last 65 non-conference games. The under is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Texas Bowl Total DOMINATION* The Texas Longhorns and Missouri Tigers both like to push the pace. Texas played at the 35th fastest tempo out of 130 teams in the country. Missouri played at the second fastest tempo of anyone in the country this season. 

The Missouri offense is based a lot on timing, and early in the season their timing wasn't down yet. As Drew Lock and the rest of this unit got things down pat, the numbers they put up were massive. Missouri hasn't scored less than 45 points in any of their last six games. 

Texas' defense is very good, but they will be without several key players here. Chris Nelson won't play on the defensive front. DeShon Elliot won't play in the secondary. Holton Hill has been out for the last few weeks at a corner spot, and he's out again here.

The Texas offense finally has two healthy quarterbacks, and this Missouri defense doesn't impress me. Missouri has allowed 6.4 yards per play or more on five occasions this year. 

With both teams playing at this kind of pace, this isn't a particularly high total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been an offensive juggernaut since Khalil Tate took over at quarterback. How good have they been? They haven't scored less than 28 points in any game he started. They have scored 45 points or more in 5 of the 8 games Tate started. 

Purdue has some good defensive numbers on the season as a whole, but they didn't play very many good offenses. Purdue plays in the side of the Big Ten where most teams want to grind it out (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern for example) and thus Purdue had a bunch of low scoring games. They did allow 35 points and 524 points to Louisville in the season opener.

Purdue likes to play quickly, and I don't see a Jeff Brohm coached team shying away from a high scoring fast paced game. Arizona will play fast and look to get into a shootout. Purdue hasn't been in them this year, but Arizona's defense is bad enough that Purdue should put up a lot of points here. 

Arizona's last eight games have all easily gone past this total. In fact, they have all been 72 points or higher. 

Arizona is first in the nation in yards per carry. The Wildcats defense ranks 93rd in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.03.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense was tremendous this year. This team was one of the biggest surprises of the season, and their massive improvement on defense was the key. Fresno State is accustomed to playing in Hawaii, and I think they will be ready to play here.

Houston's offense was really inconsistent this year. The Cougars put up some big numbers on bad defenses in their conference. Houston also plays a bunch of teams that play at a very fast tempo in the American Athletic Conference. Fresno State won't play at that pace here. When Houston has been outside of their conference, the under has had value of late. I think that makes sense because the Cougars run up big numbers on teams like East Carolina in the AAC, but their totals are generally too high in non-conference games.

There isn't one area in this game where the offense holds the advantage (pass offenses and run offenses vs. their opposition). The Houston run defense is dominant and Fresno State hasn't consistent at all in the passing attack this year.

The under is 5-0 in Fresno's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5 non-conference games. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Chargers take on the New York Jets on Sunday. Bryce Petty will start for the Jets. Petty was shaky last week in New Orleans, and I certainly don't trust him to be good against an excellent Chargers pass rush. The Jets offensive front is a clear weakness, and the Chargers led by Joey Bosa should be in the backfield a lot here.

The Chargers offense has been able to move the ball this year, but their red zone performance has been terrible. It is partially because of poor play calling in key spots. An inability to run on short distance downs has hurt too. The Jets have still been trying hard on defense, and this isn't the easiest of spots for the Chargers after an important loss at Kansas City last week.

The Chargers have been a good under team all year, and against a Jets team that is likely to play it conservative on offense with an inexperienced quarterback, I like the value on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Saturday Total Domination* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been very good this year. They have consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL in yards per play this season. 

Indianapolis' offense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Colts are averaging only 4.0 yards per play during that time. I don't see them getting much going here either.

Baltimore's offense has been better in recent weeks, but they have been best at running the ball, and the Colts run defense is pretty decent. 

The weather should play a factor here. There is expected to be rain and wind of about 12-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph during this game. That's significant enough to make both teams more conservative in their play calling. 

I see Baltimore getting a lead and then being content to run the ball and use the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Tampa Bay Bucs will be without a bunch of key players on defense here. You could make a solid argument that the two best players on this defense are Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy. Both of them are out for this one. Hargreaves is a top corner for them and he will miss this game as well.

Atlanta's offense has been great of late. The Falcons are averaging 6.3 yards per play in their last three contests. They moved the ball at will against Tampa Bay in their first meeting, and Tampa Bay is even more short-handed on defense this time around.

Jameis Winston is healthy now, and the Bucs offense is a solid 13th in the NFL in yards per play. In a primetime spot, I expect Tampa Bay's offense to get their yards and points as well.

The over is 10-0-1 in the Falcons last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Seattle Seahawks host the LA Rams in a game that means a lot to both teams. You can expect both teams to be highly motivated in this one. The more important the game- the better it is for the under, especially in the regular season.

A big reason why I like this one is the weather. Seattle is expected to receive steady rain through this game, and wind will accompany it. The winds are expected to be 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That's enough to change the way this game is played.

The Seahawks running attack isn't good at all. The Rams can run the ball some, but the strength of the Seahawks defense now is their run defense. 

These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. In the last three games between these two one team has had 10 points or fewer. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The under is 4-0 in the Seahawks last 4 vs a divisional foe. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle Crusher* Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns are much improved on offense from earlier this season. Alex Collins has turned into a nice weapon for the Baltimore offense and that has taken some pressure off of Joe Flacco. 

On the Cleveland side, the Browns have a strong group of wide receivers now with Coleman and Gordon both healthy. The Browns haven't been very good in the red zone in recent weeks but their yards per play numbers suggest drastic improvement. 

This total is set awfully low. Baltimore's defense was on the field an extremely long time against Pittsburgh last weekend. There could definitely be some tired bodies on that side of the ball for the Ravens. Baltimore's offense has been much more aggressive in the last few weeks and they should be able to hit some long gainers against this Browns defense. 

The over is 6-0 in the Ravens last 6 games in the month of December. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 10-0 angle.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves rank fourth in the nation in pace of play. Arkansas State is going to get off a lot of snaps and quickly. MTSU likes to play quickly as well, especially with Brent Stockstill back under center for the team. 

Both defenses are better at stopping the run than the pass, but both of these offenses are pass heavy. Look for both offenses to take advantage of weak secondaries in this one. 

Arkansas State has shown on multiple occasions that they can get involved in some really high scoring games. MTSU now has their star quarterback Stockstill back, and they finished the season scoring 30 points or more in each of their last four games.

I see this being a back and forth affair with both offenses moving it through the air with ease.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Saturday Totals SMASHER* The Detroit Lions have played 6 straight games that have gone over this total. Eight of their last nine have gone over this number. Detroit's defense ranks second to last in the NFL in total defense in the last eight games. 

Chicago's offense has been bad for much of the year, but the Bears broke out with a terrific offensive performance in Cincinnati last week. The thinking here is John Fox will likely be a little more aggressive in the play calling after a good showing. Chicago ran the ball at will against Detroit in the first matchup.

Matt Stafford has been very good against the Bears. This game is being played inside the dome, so there is no weather to contend in this game. Stafford threw for 299 yards on 31 passes in the first game against Chicago.

This is a low number for a Detroit game, and I'm siding with the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams are so efficient on offense. They rank 24th in scoring efficiency this year. They are 14th in the nation in yards per play. Gallup is one of the best receivers in the country. They have a strong offensive line as well.

Marshall's defense was good this year, but they didn't face many good offenses. They are up against the best or second best offense they have faced all year for this one. I think they'll struggle.

Marshall's offense has been up and down this year, but Colorado State ranks 101st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Marshall should get going offensively in this contest.

This number is a touchdown too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The AFC North is well known for its hard hitting style and these two teams are definitely that style. 

In the AFC North, the under is a whopping 56-29 (66%) on games with a total of 41 or higher since 2004. 

The weather here will play a bit of a role too. The wind is expected to be 12 mph during this one. That's enough to make it a little harder to throw the ball deep.

The Steelers are clearly short handed at linebacker, but Baltimore's offense has been really bad this year. The Ravens are dead last in the NFL in yards per play. On the other hand, Baltimore is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Both teams have an excellent pass rush, and that will make the quarterbacks get rid of the ball quicker than normal. 

The under is 19-8 in the Steelers last 27 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 between these teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings meet in what should be a really good game on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings have been the most consistent defense in the NFL. Adjusted for strength of schedule- the Vikings defense is second against the pass and third against the run. Carolina's offense has been below average all year in the passing game, and they aren't getting enough out of the running backs in the running game.

Minnesota's offense has been solid this year, but they don't move particularly fast. They have a lot of long drives that eat up the time. Carolina ranks as the third slowest team in the NFL, so the Panthers definitely use up the clock as well.

The under is 20-6 in the Vikings last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. 

I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Green Bay Packers rank 27th in the NFL in yards per play since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Green Bay has to rely on their running game, but the strength of this Cleveland defense is their rushing defense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in rushing defense when measured by advanced metrics. 

The Browns have been really bad on offense again this year. Yes, they have better weapons on the outside now with Gordon and Coleman. I don't see them doing a ton of damage here though for two reasons: Kizer is their quarterback, and second the wind is going to be a big factor.

In the NFL, games with a total of 38 or higher with winds of 10 mph or higher have gone under the total a little better than 57% of the time in the past ten years. The wind makes a difference in Cleveland even more than most stadiums. This stadium is very close to the lake, and the wind can swirl around here easily.

Expect two conservative game plans and the defenses will have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. This is an AFC North rivalry. There is definitely a lot of hatred between these two teams. 

The AFC North has been notorious for hard hitting football and tight low scoring games in recent years. Here's an impressive and simple system for this division:

-Playing the under on a game between AFC North foes where the total is 41 or higher has yielded a 56-28 (66.7%) win rate for the under in the last 84 contests.

Pittsburgh's defense is the strength of the team this year. The Bengals rank fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

The Steelers running game hasn't been as good this year and Big Ben's play has been inconsistent. The Bengals don't have a running game, and I don't trust Andy Dalton in the big game.

A big plus here is the weather too- wind of 15 mph is expected during this one with a chance of a little rain as well. The wind is a big positive for the under.

The under is 13-4 in Pittsburgh's last 17 vs. an AFC North opponent. The under is 12-4 in the Bengals last 16 vs. an AFC North foe.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled to get going for much of the year, but they have gotten healthier in recent weeks and they are playing great right now. Phillip Rivers is still a very good quarterback, and he has plenty of weapons around him. 

The Browns defense has been pretty good against the run this year, but they are very weak against the pass. A big key here is Cleveland is without star linebacker Jamie Collins and DL Emmanuel Ogbah. 

Cleveland's offense has been inconsistent, but Josh Gordon will return in this one, and the Chargers have given up quite a few big plays defensively this season. 

These teams both play at a pace quicker than the league average. 

The over is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games.

I see the Chargers scoring a lot here and the Browns scoring plenty to get this past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Minnesota defense is equally strong against the pass and the run. There is no weakness in this unit. Atlanta's defense is surprisingly 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They are clearly improved on defense from last season. Also, Atlanta's offensive efficiency isn't quite what it was a year ago. Matt Ryan does miss Kyle Shanahan. 

Neither of these teams play particularly fast. The Vikings are a touch faster than the league average and the Falcons are a bit slower than the league average. 

I expect both offenses will find it harder to break big plays than normal in this one. This is a pretty high total in today's NFL. 

This is a measuring stick game for both teams. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs just played three weeks ago. This one means a whole lot more. Auburn blasted Georgia in the first game. Georgia's coaches and players weren't very happy with the chatting from the Auburn after that last meeting. They felt Auburn took advantage of the opportunity and ran up the score and then talked about it after the game.

I fully expect to see an extremely motivated Georgia Bulldogs defense in this one. Georgia's defense was bullied on the line by the Tigers offensive front in the first meeting. Don't expect that again here.

Auburn runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays. The Tigers will be without Kamryn Pettway due to injury, and star running back Kerryon Johnson will likely try to play through a shoulder injury. 

Georgia runs the ball on 69.5% of their offensive plays. The Bulldogs go up against an Auburn defense that has been elite all year against the run. 

Auburn plays at an average tempo. Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. This much running with a relatively slow tempo should mean a small amount of possessions. 

This game means everything to both teams and intensity usually helps the defense more than the offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Georgia State Panthers have absolutely no running game. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Georgia State has been the worst running offense in the country. One-dimensional offenses are a lot easier to game plan for. Idaho's pass rush has been solid this year, and I think the Vandals can get some pressure on the quarterback here.

Idaho's offense is lost without quarterback Matt Linehan. How have they done without him the last couple weeks? They scored only 7 points against lowly Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. They scored just 10 points against a terrible New Mexico State defense last week. Idaho isn't any good at running the football, but with their third string quarterback in for this one they are likely to have to try to run the football. Idaho's starting running back Isaiah Saunders is questionable with an injury here too. I don't think Idaho will be able to do much on offense in this one.

Both teams have played quite a few very low scoring games this year. 

The under is 4-0 in Idaho's last 4. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 4-0 in GA State's last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under.  

*3 Star CFB Friday Night PAC 12 Title Game CASH* The Stanford Cardinal were beaten 42-24 by USC earlier this year. That Stanford team was a lot different than the current version though. David Shaw's team has gotten a solid amount better on defense throughout the year. Their defensive efficiency rank was in the range of #90 early in the season. If you look at the last five weeks only, it is #41. 

USC struggles at times to protect Darnold, and the Cardinal have been good at pressuring the quarterback this year. I think they'll get in the backfield and disrupt things quite a bit during this contest.

The Stanford offense has gotten far less efficient in recent weeks. Bryce Love is playing hobbled and this is a very conservative offense. Stanford ranks 120th in the nation in pace of play. They will look to run the football and use up the clock and keep the USC offense off the field. Since their loss to USC on September 9, only one Stanford game has gone over this total. That was against UCLA and their terrible defense. 

The under is 7-0 in Stanford's last 7 following a win. The under is 4-0 in USC's last 4 following a bye week. An 11-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Green Bay Packers are averaging only 13.4 points per game since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Brett Hundley hasn't been the answer, and the offensive line is banged up. The Packers are also without Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery is doubtful. This offense is badly beaten up. 

Pittsburgh's defense has been consistently very good this year. The Steelers have ranked in the top five or six in nearly every defensive statistic this season. I don't see them giving up much here.

The Green Bay defense has been improved in recent weeks. Ben Roethlisberger has been sick this week and is listed as probable here, but he's less than 100 percent. The Steelers offensive line hasn't been getting as much of a push in the running game this season.

Both of these teams have been slowing much slower than the league average in pace of play.

In the last 3 years, NFL home teams who are favored by 13 points or more at home with a total of less than 48 points have seen the under go a perfect 9-0. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Eagles are coming off a really big win at Dallas last weekend. That's a rivalry game where Philly puts a bunch into that contest. It would be easy for the Eagles to let up a little here.

Chicago isn't very good on offense. They are extremely reliant on the running game. The strength of the Eagles defense is their front seven. Philadelphia is very likely to stack up the box and dare Chicago to beat them through the air. The Eagles pass rush is elite and the Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection.

The Bears defense is really underrated. This is a unit that has kept the Bears in a lot of games this season. The Eagles will move the ball here as they always do, but I think the Bears slow them down and hold them to field goals more often than normal.

The weather here looks less than ideal. Winds of 13 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are forecast for this contest. That's a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils meet on Saturday in what should be a game filled with tons of big plays for the offenses. 

Arizona's offense ranks first in the nation in yards per carry at a whopping 7.03 per attempt. Arizona State's defense is 109th in the country and allowing 5.11 yards per carry. Adjusted for strength of schedule played, Arizona State's run defense ranks in the bottom ten in the country.

Arizona State's passing attack has a big edge on this Arizona Wildcats secondary. Arizona has allowed more than 40 points in 4 of their last 7 games. The Wildcats are giving up huge plays by the bunches this year.

The last five games between these two teams have all gone over this number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats are two of the rare teams in the Big 12 who play slowly and look to control the ball through their run game. Both teams are without their starting quarterback and that should make them more conservative.

I see a game where both teams play slowly and this one is decided by a small margin. We get a little line value from the fact that both teams have played several high scoring games against opponents like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State who are tremendous offensively. There is no great offense in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is much better now that star quarterback Brent Stockstill is back on the field. While Richie James is injured, Ty Lee has turned into a star at receiver and MTSU has a big advantage over an ODU defensive secondary that has struggled all season long.

Old Dominion's offense is certainly better now that Ray Lawry is healthy. ODU has gotten much more balanced on offense in recent weeks since the passing game finds openings because teams are now having to stack up the box to slow the running game once again. ODU should be able to do enough here.

Both offenses have rated much higher in efficiency metrics in the last few weeks. I think this number would have been fair if Stockstill and Lawry weren't back, but with them in the fold I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State is a team that likes to run the ball as often as possible. They often go on long drives that eat up a bunch of time.

Georgia State is dead last in rushing efficiency on offense in the country. Georgia State has to throw it, but Appalachian State has the best secondary in the Sun Belt. I expect Georgia State to have trouble moving the ball here. Georgia State has scored 21 points or less in 5 of their 9 games this year. 

Look for both defenses to match up well in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Boston College has picked up their pace significantly this season. Syracuse is one of the five fastest teams in the country. This number is awfully low based on those tendencies to hurry and get in as many plays as possible.

Boston College and Syracuse got to 48 points last year, but Boston College is playing at a much faster tempo this year, and the Eagles defense has been struggling in recent weeks.

This one has the potential to be a very close game where both teams score plenty.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots have the number one ranked pass offense in terms of efficiency. Who has the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency? The Oakland Raiders. Tom Brady should have a big game here, and I expect New England to be put up a big number.

Oakland's pass rush has been poor this year, and New England has been blocking well. When Brady has this much time to throw against a weak secondary, that generally equals great things for the Patriots offense.

Derek Carr has looked healthier of late, and the Patriots pass defense ranks 30th. Carr should hook up with his receivers in the open field several times as well.

The elevation is a positive in Mexico City in my mind for points. Tired defenses generally lead to blown assignments. 

I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have played four games at home this year. The highest scoring game was 23-17 (in overtime) against Pittsburgh and 23-17 against Atlanta in the season opener.

The Bears have an ultra-conservative offense now. They aren't taking many chances with Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears have the second highest running plays as a percentage of their overall offensive plays in the NFL behind only the Jaguars. 

Detroit's secondary isn't very good, but the Lions rank top ten in the NFL at stopping the run. Detroit should be ready for the running game here.

Chicago's defense has been solid in all ways this year. Detroit is awfully one-dimensional with the passing game, and with the weather forecast here that could be trouble.

There is a storm coming through Chicago this weekend and 20 mph winds are forecast at Soldier Field on Sunday. That will impact the game and make throwing more difficult and both teams will likely run more than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for 25 mph winds coming off the lake during this game. There is also a chance of snow showers throughout this one. This will be really bad conditions, and history has shown that conditions like this are great for the under.

Winds of 10 mph or more with totals of 35 or higher and a temperature of 78 or lower- the under is 57.5% in the last ten years. What about at Cleveland? In Cleveland, the under is 10-2 in the last 12 games with the wind at 10 mph or greater and temperatures of below 50 degrees. The wind changes the game at First Energy Stadium more than the average stadium in the league.

50% of the tickets written to this point are on the under, but 90% of the money is on the under. The sharps love this one and I see the value too.

The Jaguars will run the ball a ton here, but Cleveland ranks top five in the NFL in rushing defense. 

The under is 4-0 in the Jags last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more passing. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 on grass. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos offense has really gotten it in gear of late. Air Force is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons are allowing 6.51 yards per play, which is 118th out of 130 teams in college football.

Boise State's offense led the comeback vs. Colorado State last week. They should put up a big number here. 

Air Force's offense is good enough to put up some points, especially as they play faster when behind.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TAKEDOWN* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off a really high scoring game against Syracuse. The Orange play extremely fast and aren't very good on defense. That basketball-like score has created some value on the under here. 

I leaned to the under even before I saw the weather here because of the overreaction in the market, but after seeing the weather I like the under a good amount.

The Winston Salem area is expected to get 25 mph winds on Saturday night during this game. Both of these teams rank top 25 in the nation in passing efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. They both rank worse than 65th in the nation in rushing efficiency. I expect both teams to have to run the ball more than they want in this one, and that plays into the hands of the defense.

The under is 10-1 in NC State's last 11 ACC games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 19-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Taamu has been terrific at quarterback for Ole Miss. He is completing better than 73% of his passes. Ole Miss' tempo has been even faster since he took over as well. The Rebels offense ranks in the top 15 in pace of play on offense. Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of possessions in this one.

Texas A&M's offense has gotten quite a bit better as the season has moved on, and they are up against a weak defense. Ole Miss has an explosive offense that scores quickly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and the UConn Huskies will both be playing with backup quarterbacks on Saturday night. Both lost their starter in their last game. That alone would make them likely to be more conservative, but add poor weather to the mix and we should see a lot of conservative play calling.

This game is being played at Fenway Park. The wind is supposed to pick up during the game and the rain is forecast to start falling during this game. By the end of the game, 20 mph sustained winds and showers should be falling. 

Look for a sloppy lower scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*
The Purdue Boilermakers offense has struggled in recent weeks, but the defense has been tremendous. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything last week in Wisconsin, but the defense made several strong stands.
The early weather forecast calls for 23 mph winds during this game, which changes the game in a big way. It will make both teams more conservative.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

I like this one to stay very low scoring.

Take the under big. 

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 40 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thanks* 

*4 Star CFB Totals System SMASHER* I would not have played the under here normally, but the weather makes me do it because of the extremely strong angle backing the under. 

Louisville is expected to be 53 degrees with 25 mph winds and 30-35 mph gusts during this game. There is a 70% chance of rain. That's downright brutal conditions, and it should change this game.

Syracuse plays very fast on offense. Still, they actually have been less efficient than I expected this year. The Orange rank about 40th in most pass efficiency metrics. They aren't in the top 75 in the country in rushing efficiency. They'll need that running game more than normal with conditions like this. Louisville's pass defense has been terrible this year, but adjusted for strength of schedule this Louisville defense ranks top 20 against the run.

Louisville has a dynamic offense, but the Cardinals are playing at the 62nd fastest tempo of any team in the country, meaning they aren't pushing the issue. This is an extremely high number.

Here's a great system that fits this game: In a game in week 11-13 with a total of 56 points or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 40% or better- with wind of 10 mph or higher the under is a whopping 81-35 in the last 116 contests. That's 70% unders.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is great at making games low scoring. The Jaguars defense is one of the best in the Sun Belt. They have been particularly good when it comes to stopping the run. 

Georgia Southern ranks in the bottom ten in the country in tempo. They are running the triple option, so every possession takes a lot of time off the clock. 

The meeting between these two last year was 24-9. A game in the 30's here shouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Jonesboro on Saturday. The forecast for this one calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds during this game. Arkansas State is very reliant on their passing game. They air it out 57% of the time on offense. That is normally how they would beat Texas State, because Texas State's secondary is weak. However, in those winds it will be hard to throw the ball.

Both teams will fall back and run the ball more often, and both offensive lines are weak. Texas State and Arkansas State both rank in the bottom five in the country in rushing offense efficiency. Both defenses are pretty good against the run. 

In a game that should feature more running, with a high total and a rolling clock, I'm going to take the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers defense has been terrible all year. Arizona State has been solid in the passing game in recent weeks. Arizona State has scored 37 points or more five times this year. They have 81 points in the last two games alone. 

Oregon State's rushing game has been pretty good this year. The Beavers should be able to run for a lot here. Arizona State ranks in the bottom five in the country in yards per carry allowed when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Arizona State is allowing 5.30 yards per carry on the year.

Arizona State's tempo has been faster in recent weeks, and Todd Graham has talked about wanting the team to continue to play very quick.

Both teams should score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Waco on Saturday calls for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. That kind of wind is really hard to throw a football in, especially if you are looking to go downfield at all. 

That makes the offenses game plan a lot more vanilla, and both of these defenses are better against the run than the pass. 

Iowa State isn't sure who is starting at quarterback this week since Kempt went down with an injury last week. The Cyclones have been good throwing the ball this year, but they have struggled badly running the football.

The sharp money is on the under in a big way here. There have been multiple steam moves on the under. I agree.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers defense has improved an amazing amount over the last couple years. The defense has become the strength of this team under Coach Allen. In the past it was the clear weakness of Indiana's football program.

Indiana now has a top 20 defense against the run when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Hoosiers are top 30 against the pass. 

This Rutgers offense is as bad as you'll see in the Big Ten. Rutgers wouldn't be likely to score many at all here in normal conditions. 

With a forecast of 20 mph winds and 60% chance of showers, this game should be changed quite a bit by the weather. Indiana likes to throw the ball around, and they are pretty good through the air. With wind like that, I expect Indiana to be more conservative. Especially against a Rutgers offense that can't do much of anything.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

The Michigan Wolverines and Wisconsin Bagders meet on Saturday in a huge Big Ten clash. Both of these teams like to run the football consistently. That plays to the strength of these defenses. Look for a bunch of running plays and a very slow pace between two teams who are extremely deliberate in their offensive styles.

Also, the early weather forecast here calls for extremely strong winds and cold temperatures for this game.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

Take the under big.

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 39 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thank you*