*4 Star Play Under* Indiana hosts Virginia in a Big 10 vs. ACC battle in Bloomington on Saturday night. Indiana is without their best running back in Morgan Ellison, who is suspended. Indiana has a new quarterback and I would expect the Hoosier to be a run heavy team this year behind a solid offensive line.

Virginia is implementing a new offense this year after star QB Kurt Benkert moved on. They have a youngster at QB who is not a good passer. They will look to run the ball much more this year with both their mobile QB and their running backs. The problem for Virginia is their offensive line is a weakness. Indiana's defensive line is clearly the strength of their defensive unit. Virginia isn't likely to be able to run the ball on them much here. 

The Virginia secondary is the strength of the defense, and I don't think Indiana will try to test them very often. 

Neither team is likely to be effective in the passing game especially with the weather forecast. There is a 90% of chance of rain which could be heavy and 15 mph winds from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon. One-dimensional teams are much easier to defend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have a totally different system on offense this year. Derek Dooley is the OC and they will be more of a pro-style offense with much less tempo than last year. I expect their games to be lower scoring than they were last season. 

The market has already moved this line down a good amount, and it is largely due to the weather. The forecast calls for 13 mph winds sustained throughout the game and some light rain.

Wyoming's passing attack is virtually non-existent, and the way to beat this Missouri defense is through the air. Missouri should be strong against the run this year. Wyoming will try to run it down their throat and control the ball for as long as possible. 

The Wyoming defense returns its top six tacklers from a year ago. The final score in their loss to Washington State last week is a little misleading, since Washington State scored 21 points in the last 11 minutes of the game. Washington State had only 394 yards of total offense.

I like both defensive lines here and with questionable weather and slower pace from both I'll take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* It's not easy to play a Navy under after the way their defense looked against Hawaii last week, but at this number I have to. Navy plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country (only Army is slower). They are going to run the football on more than 90% of their plays this year. 

The Memphis offense will be good this year, but they won't be as explosive as they were a year ago with Riley Ferguson at quarterback. Memphis will look to run the football more often. Though Memphis will still play quickly, I do expect them to be a bit slower than last year.

The Navy secondary is the weakness of their defense and Hawaii had the perfect scheme to take advantage of that. Navy is much better defensively on the front seven. I also feel that Navy is a very well coached team and I would be surprised if this unit doesn't show a lot of fight and perform better this week. 

These two teams have played each of the last 4 years, and none of those games have gone over this total. There is some recency bias in this total. I'll go under this high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a tremendous defensive line. That should make it very hard for Kansas State to do much on offense here. I don't see Kansas State as a team that will be able to throw the ball much this season. They will look to run constantly and the Bulldogs have a big edge on the defensive front. 

Kansas State typically does a good job on the defensive front, and I think they can hold their own enough to slow down the Bulldogs rushing game enough here.

Both of these teams will be much slower than the average team in terms of tempo, and there should be a lot of moving clock in this one with a bunch of rushing attempts. I believe this number should be closer to 50.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils have a new offensive coordinator and a new head coach this year. I think they are likely to play a little slower on offense. Arizona State also has a new defensive coordinator in Danny Gonzales and he has implemented the 3-3-5 defense that he led at San Diego State. I think that will help the Sun Devils improve on this side of the ball.

UTSA lost a ton on offense. They return only 4 starters this year. They scored 9 points or less in three of their last four games last season. The Roadrunners play at a very slow tempo, and the offense is likely to be very weak this year. UTSA is coached by a defensive minded guy in Frank Wilson. Wilson has improved this defense in a big way, and I think they will be solid yet again. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs beat the North Texas Mean Green 54-32 last year. Both of these teams were racking up big gain after big gain. Both SMU and North Texas ranked in the top 40 in the country in pace of play last year. SMU will likely play even quicker under Sonny Dykes this year, and North Texas has a veteran quarterback in Mason Fine, which likely means an even faster pace as he knows the system very well now.

Mason Fine is going to put up some big numbers this year. North Texas has some great receivers and Fine has all the tools. SMU is weak in the secondary and Fine should pick them apart here.

North Texas allowed 16 plays of 50 yards or more last year. The Mean Green defense are aggressive and can force some turnovers, but the trade off is allowing a bunch of big plays. Only one team in the country allowed more plays of 50 yards or more (Tulsa). SMU should have big play ability with a veteran at quarterback like Hicks.

The weather is forecast to be hot and humid on Saturday in Texas. Warm weather has been a nice boost to the over in past years. 

The offenses have big advantages in this one, and both teams will pass heavy so there will be more clock stoppages. Back and forth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Washington/Auburn Moneymaker* The Auburn Tigers return only one starter on the offensive line from last year. Auburn must also replace their top two running backs from a year ago. The Auburn running game that was terrific last year will be down several notches this year. Washington's defensive front is likely to make it very difficult for Auburn to get anything going on the ground here. Auburn has a good quarterback in Stidham, but he'll be under pressure often in this one, and Washington's secondary is one of the best in the country.

Washington likes to lean on their running game in big games. Auburn's defensive front is one of the four or five best in the country. Washington's offensive line is at a clear disadvantage here. Jake Browning will have to make plays in the passing game, and last year he was inconsistent especially against top defenses and away from home. 

Washington ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in tempo last year, and I expect them to be fairly slow again this year. Auburn was slower than the average team as well. Both teams are run heavy and the clock should keep ticking a lot in this game. 

A hard hitting close game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Stanford Cardinal aren't the same team they were a few years ago. Stanford was known for being tremendous on the defensive front a few years ago. They were consistently piling up 45 or 50 sacks. They were holding teams to 2.9, 3.0, and 3.1 yards per carry. Not anymore. Stanford allowed 4.6 ypc last year, and they had only 32 sacks. Last year's defense was easily the worst in the past six years for Stanford, and the defensive line for Stanford is a big question mark this year. 

Stanford hasn't had a really good quarterback since Andrew Luck was here, but KJ Costello should do very well for them. Costello came on in a big way at the end of last season. He had 14 TD's and only 4 picks last year. As Costello took over at QB later last year, this offense immediately started putting up better numbers. They scored 30 in an upset win over Washington. They put up 38 against Notre Dame. They scored 37 against a good TCU defense in their bowl game.

San Diego State's offensive line is better than Stanford's defensive front. Washington will be a good running back for the Aztecs this year. Chapman has experience at quarterback as well. They should be able to move the ball here.

Bryce Love ran wild against San Diego State last year, and he should be great again here. Stanford should run the ball really well here.

It's a low total where the public is actually taking the under. That's fine with me. The perception of Stanford and San Diego State as defensive teams has this total set at a low number.I'll take the contrarian over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies offense couldn't get a first down for nearly two quarters at home against Wyoming last week. This Aggies offense was fortunate to get 7 points last game, and now they face a Minnesota team with a strong defensive front. New Mexico State's weakness is their offensive line. 

Minnesota ranked 120th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo last year. They have a freshman quarterback, and they are very likely to want to keep things vanilla in this game. New Mexico State should be ready for the run game here.

New Mexico State's defense improved a bunch last year, and I think they will be pretty good again this year. Against a one-dimensional offense they should hold their own here.

New Mexico State played quickly last year, but they appeared to be wanting to slow things down a bit this year with a new quarterback and running back.

Winds of about 15 mph are forecast for this game, and that's enough to change the game some and help the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs played in a really high scoring game against Oklahoma, but I don't think we'll see anything like that in the title game.

Georgia plays at the 127th ranked tempo out of 130 teams. Alabama's tempo is 95th out of 130. Georgia is playing at an extremely slow pace, and Alabama prefers to play slowly as well.

Georgia runs the ball on 71% of their plays from scrimmage for the season. Alabama runs it on 66% of their plays from scrimmage. Two teams pounding the ball and using the clock is ideal for an under as long as you have defenses that can stop the run.

Adjusted for strength of schedule played- Alabama's run defense ranks first in the country in run defense. Georgia ranks ninth. 

These two secondaries are both excellent as well, and neither of these passing games are particularly dynamic especially when it comes to creating big plays.

This should be a hard hitting contest where the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Florida Hurricanes defense has been tremendous this year. Miami's defensive front has been excellent, and that should help them against a good Wisconsin running game.

Wisconsin ranks 11th in the nation in most runs as a percentage of their overall play selection. The Badgers are going to try to run the ball early and often here. Miami is likely to be able to at least slow them down quite a bit here. Miami is allowing 3.53 yards per carry this year. In their last six games, they are allowing less than 2.7 yards per carry.

The Miami offense scored only 17 points in their last two games. Miami has relied on turnovers much of the year, and their offense is too reliant on the passing game. Miami hasn't been able to run the ball very well. This Wisconsin defense is third in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Miami plays at an average tempo. Wisconsin is the third slowest team in the country in terms of pace of play. The Badgers will have some long clock eating drives that should help the under a lot.

The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 bowl games. The under is 45-20 in Miami's last 65 non-conference games. The under is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Texas Bowl Total DOMINATION* The Texas Longhorns and Missouri Tigers both like to push the pace. Texas played at the 35th fastest tempo out of 130 teams in the country. Missouri played at the second fastest tempo of anyone in the country this season. 

The Missouri offense is based a lot on timing, and early in the season their timing wasn't down yet. As Drew Lock and the rest of this unit got things down pat, the numbers they put up were massive. Missouri hasn't scored less than 45 points in any of their last six games. 

Texas' defense is very good, but they will be without several key players here. Chris Nelson won't play on the defensive front. DeShon Elliot won't play in the secondary. Holton Hill has been out for the last few weeks at a corner spot, and he's out again here.

The Texas offense finally has two healthy quarterbacks, and this Missouri defense doesn't impress me. Missouri has allowed 6.4 yards per play or more on five occasions this year. 

With both teams playing at this kind of pace, this isn't a particularly high total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been an offensive juggernaut since Khalil Tate took over at quarterback. How good have they been? They haven't scored less than 28 points in any game he started. They have scored 45 points or more in 5 of the 8 games Tate started. 

Purdue has some good defensive numbers on the season as a whole, but they didn't play very many good offenses. Purdue plays in the side of the Big Ten where most teams want to grind it out (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern for example) and thus Purdue had a bunch of low scoring games. They did allow 35 points and 524 points to Louisville in the season opener.

Purdue likes to play quickly, and I don't see a Jeff Brohm coached team shying away from a high scoring fast paced game. Arizona will play fast and look to get into a shootout. Purdue hasn't been in them this year, but Arizona's defense is bad enough that Purdue should put up a lot of points here. 

Arizona's last eight games have all easily gone past this total. In fact, they have all been 72 points or higher. 

Arizona is first in the nation in yards per carry. The Wildcats defense ranks 93rd in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.03.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense was tremendous this year. This team was one of the biggest surprises of the season, and their massive improvement on defense was the key. Fresno State is accustomed to playing in Hawaii, and I think they will be ready to play here.

Houston's offense was really inconsistent this year. The Cougars put up some big numbers on bad defenses in their conference. Houston also plays a bunch of teams that play at a very fast tempo in the American Athletic Conference. Fresno State won't play at that pace here. When Houston has been outside of their conference, the under has had value of late. I think that makes sense because the Cougars run up big numbers on teams like East Carolina in the AAC, but their totals are generally too high in non-conference games.

There isn't one area in this game where the offense holds the advantage (pass offenses and run offenses vs. their opposition). The Houston run defense is dominant and Fresno State hasn't consistent at all in the passing attack this year.

The under is 5-0 in Fresno's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5 non-conference games. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves rank fourth in the nation in pace of play. Arkansas State is going to get off a lot of snaps and quickly. MTSU likes to play quickly as well, especially with Brent Stockstill back under center for the team. 

Both defenses are better at stopping the run than the pass, but both of these offenses are pass heavy. Look for both offenses to take advantage of weak secondaries in this one. 

Arkansas State has shown on multiple occasions that they can get involved in some really high scoring games. MTSU now has their star quarterback Stockstill back, and they finished the season scoring 30 points or more in each of their last four games.

I see this being a back and forth affair with both offenses moving it through the air with ease.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams are so efficient on offense. They rank 24th in scoring efficiency this year. They are 14th in the nation in yards per play. Gallup is one of the best receivers in the country. They have a strong offensive line as well.

Marshall's defense was good this year, but they didn't face many good offenses. They are up against the best or second best offense they have faced all year for this one. I think they'll struggle.

Marshall's offense has been up and down this year, but Colorado State ranks 101st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Marshall should get going offensively in this contest.

This number is a touchdown too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs just played three weeks ago. This one means a whole lot more. Auburn blasted Georgia in the first game. Georgia's coaches and players weren't very happy with the chatting from the Auburn after that last meeting. They felt Auburn took advantage of the opportunity and ran up the score and then talked about it after the game.

I fully expect to see an extremely motivated Georgia Bulldogs defense in this one. Georgia's defense was bullied on the line by the Tigers offensive front in the first meeting. Don't expect that again here.

Auburn runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays. The Tigers will be without Kamryn Pettway due to injury, and star running back Kerryon Johnson will likely try to play through a shoulder injury. 

Georgia runs the ball on 69.5% of their offensive plays. The Bulldogs go up against an Auburn defense that has been elite all year against the run. 

Auburn plays at an average tempo. Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. This much running with a relatively slow tempo should mean a small amount of possessions. 

This game means everything to both teams and intensity usually helps the defense more than the offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Georgia State Panthers have absolutely no running game. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Georgia State has been the worst running offense in the country. One-dimensional offenses are a lot easier to game plan for. Idaho's pass rush has been solid this year, and I think the Vandals can get some pressure on the quarterback here.

Idaho's offense is lost without quarterback Matt Linehan. How have they done without him the last couple weeks? They scored only 7 points against lowly Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. They scored just 10 points against a terrible New Mexico State defense last week. Idaho isn't any good at running the football, but with their third string quarterback in for this one they are likely to have to try to run the football. Idaho's starting running back Isaiah Saunders is questionable with an injury here too. I don't think Idaho will be able to do much on offense in this one.

Both teams have played quite a few very low scoring games this year. 

The under is 4-0 in Idaho's last 4. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 4-0 in GA State's last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under.  

*3 Star CFB Friday Night PAC 12 Title Game CASH* The Stanford Cardinal were beaten 42-24 by USC earlier this year. That Stanford team was a lot different than the current version though. David Shaw's team has gotten a solid amount better on defense throughout the year. Their defensive efficiency rank was in the range of #90 early in the season. If you look at the last five weeks only, it is #41. 

USC struggles at times to protect Darnold, and the Cardinal have been good at pressuring the quarterback this year. I think they'll get in the backfield and disrupt things quite a bit during this contest.

The Stanford offense has gotten far less efficient in recent weeks. Bryce Love is playing hobbled and this is a very conservative offense. Stanford ranks 120th in the nation in pace of play. They will look to run the football and use up the clock and keep the USC offense off the field. Since their loss to USC on September 9, only one Stanford game has gone over this total. That was against UCLA and their terrible defense. 

The under is 7-0 in Stanford's last 7 following a win. The under is 4-0 in USC's last 4 following a bye week. An 11-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils meet on Saturday in what should be a game filled with tons of big plays for the offenses. 

Arizona's offense ranks first in the nation in yards per carry at a whopping 7.03 per attempt. Arizona State's defense is 109th in the country and allowing 5.11 yards per carry. Adjusted for strength of schedule played, Arizona State's run defense ranks in the bottom ten in the country.

Arizona State's passing attack has a big edge on this Arizona Wildcats secondary. Arizona has allowed more than 40 points in 4 of their last 7 games. The Wildcats are giving up huge plays by the bunches this year.

The last five games between these two teams have all gone over this number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats are two of the rare teams in the Big 12 who play slowly and look to control the ball through their run game. Both teams are without their starting quarterback and that should make them more conservative.

I see a game where both teams play slowly and this one is decided by a small margin. We get a little line value from the fact that both teams have played several high scoring games against opponents like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State who are tremendous offensively. There is no great offense in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is much better now that star quarterback Brent Stockstill is back on the field. While Richie James is injured, Ty Lee has turned into a star at receiver and MTSU has a big advantage over an ODU defensive secondary that has struggled all season long.

Old Dominion's offense is certainly better now that Ray Lawry is healthy. ODU has gotten much more balanced on offense in recent weeks since the passing game finds openings because teams are now having to stack up the box to slow the running game once again. ODU should be able to do enough here.

Both offenses have rated much higher in efficiency metrics in the last few weeks. I think this number would have been fair if Stockstill and Lawry weren't back, but with them in the fold I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State is a team that likes to run the ball as often as possible. They often go on long drives that eat up a bunch of time.

Georgia State is dead last in rushing efficiency on offense in the country. Georgia State has to throw it, but Appalachian State has the best secondary in the Sun Belt. I expect Georgia State to have trouble moving the ball here. Georgia State has scored 21 points or less in 5 of their 9 games this year. 

Look for both defenses to match up well in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Boston College has picked up their pace significantly this season. Syracuse is one of the five fastest teams in the country. This number is awfully low based on those tendencies to hurry and get in as many plays as possible.

Boston College and Syracuse got to 48 points last year, but Boston College is playing at a much faster tempo this year, and the Eagles defense has been struggling in recent weeks.

This one has the potential to be a very close game where both teams score plenty.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos offense has really gotten it in gear of late. Air Force is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons are allowing 6.51 yards per play, which is 118th out of 130 teams in college football.

Boise State's offense led the comeback vs. Colorado State last week. They should put up a big number here. 

Air Force's offense is good enough to put up some points, especially as they play faster when behind.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TAKEDOWN* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off a really high scoring game against Syracuse. The Orange play extremely fast and aren't very good on defense. That basketball-like score has created some value on the under here. 

I leaned to the under even before I saw the weather here because of the overreaction in the market, but after seeing the weather I like the under a good amount.

The Winston Salem area is expected to get 25 mph winds on Saturday night during this game. Both of these teams rank top 25 in the nation in passing efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. They both rank worse than 65th in the nation in rushing efficiency. I expect both teams to have to run the ball more than they want in this one, and that plays into the hands of the defense.

The under is 10-1 in NC State's last 11 ACC games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 19-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Taamu has been terrific at quarterback for Ole Miss. He is completing better than 73% of his passes. Ole Miss' tempo has been even faster since he took over as well. The Rebels offense ranks in the top 15 in pace of play on offense. Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of possessions in this one.

Texas A&M's offense has gotten quite a bit better as the season has moved on, and they are up against a weak defense. Ole Miss has an explosive offense that scores quickly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and the UConn Huskies will both be playing with backup quarterbacks on Saturday night. Both lost their starter in their last game. That alone would make them likely to be more conservative, but add poor weather to the mix and we should see a lot of conservative play calling.

This game is being played at Fenway Park. The wind is supposed to pick up during the game and the rain is forecast to start falling during this game. By the end of the game, 20 mph sustained winds and showers should be falling. 

Look for a sloppy lower scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*
The Purdue Boilermakers offense has struggled in recent weeks, but the defense has been tremendous. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything last week in Wisconsin, but the defense made several strong stands.
The early weather forecast calls for 23 mph winds during this game, which changes the game in a big way. It will make both teams more conservative.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

I like this one to stay very low scoring.

Take the under big. 

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 40 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thanks* 

*4 Star CFB Totals System SMASHER* I would not have played the under here normally, but the weather makes me do it because of the extremely strong angle backing the under. 

Louisville is expected to be 53 degrees with 25 mph winds and 30-35 mph gusts during this game. There is a 70% chance of rain. That's downright brutal conditions, and it should change this game.

Syracuse plays very fast on offense. Still, they actually have been less efficient than I expected this year. The Orange rank about 40th in most pass efficiency metrics. They aren't in the top 75 in the country in rushing efficiency. They'll need that running game more than normal with conditions like this. Louisville's pass defense has been terrible this year, but adjusted for strength of schedule this Louisville defense ranks top 20 against the run.

Louisville has a dynamic offense, but the Cardinals are playing at the 62nd fastest tempo of any team in the country, meaning they aren't pushing the issue. This is an extremely high number.

Here's a great system that fits this game: In a game in week 11-13 with a total of 56 points or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 40% or better- with wind of 10 mph or higher the under is a whopping 81-35 in the last 116 contests. That's 70% unders.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is great at making games low scoring. The Jaguars defense is one of the best in the Sun Belt. They have been particularly good when it comes to stopping the run. 

Georgia Southern ranks in the bottom ten in the country in tempo. They are running the triple option, so every possession takes a lot of time off the clock. 

The meeting between these two last year was 24-9. A game in the 30's here shouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Jonesboro on Saturday. The forecast for this one calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds during this game. Arkansas State is very reliant on their passing game. They air it out 57% of the time on offense. That is normally how they would beat Texas State, because Texas State's secondary is weak. However, in those winds it will be hard to throw the ball.

Both teams will fall back and run the ball more often, and both offensive lines are weak. Texas State and Arkansas State both rank in the bottom five in the country in rushing offense efficiency. Both defenses are pretty good against the run. 

In a game that should feature more running, with a high total and a rolling clock, I'm going to take the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers defense has been terrible all year. Arizona State has been solid in the passing game in recent weeks. Arizona State has scored 37 points or more five times this year. They have 81 points in the last two games alone. 

Oregon State's rushing game has been pretty good this year. The Beavers should be able to run for a lot here. Arizona State ranks in the bottom five in the country in yards per carry allowed when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Arizona State is allowing 5.30 yards per carry on the year.

Arizona State's tempo has been faster in recent weeks, and Todd Graham has talked about wanting the team to continue to play very quick.

Both teams should score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Waco on Saturday calls for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. That kind of wind is really hard to throw a football in, especially if you are looking to go downfield at all. 

That makes the offenses game plan a lot more vanilla, and both of these defenses are better against the run than the pass. 

Iowa State isn't sure who is starting at quarterback this week since Kempt went down with an injury last week. The Cyclones have been good throwing the ball this year, but they have struggled badly running the football.

The sharp money is on the under in a big way here. There have been multiple steam moves on the under. I agree.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers defense has improved an amazing amount over the last couple years. The defense has become the strength of this team under Coach Allen. In the past it was the clear weakness of Indiana's football program.

Indiana now has a top 20 defense against the run when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Hoosiers are top 30 against the pass. 

This Rutgers offense is as bad as you'll see in the Big Ten. Rutgers wouldn't be likely to score many at all here in normal conditions. 

With a forecast of 20 mph winds and 60% chance of showers, this game should be changed quite a bit by the weather. Indiana likes to throw the ball around, and they are pretty good through the air. With wind like that, I expect Indiana to be more conservative. Especially against a Rutgers offense that can't do much of anything.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

The Michigan Wolverines and Wisconsin Bagders meet on Saturday in a huge Big Ten clash. Both of these teams like to run the football consistently. That plays to the strength of these defenses. Look for a bunch of running plays and a very slow pace between two teams who are extremely deliberate in their offensive styles.

Also, the early weather forecast here calls for extremely strong winds and cold temperatures for this game.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

Take the under big.

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 39 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Under* The long term forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph here and gusts of 30 mph during the game. That's some intense wind that really changes the game. Both of these offenses have struggled for much of the season. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. Add in the weather factor, and I have to take the under.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years. This one easily fits the criteria with a 45 degree temperature and 22 mph winds.

Look for both teams to run more than normal in a low scoring battle here.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers and SMU Mustangs are not normally teams I'd be looking to play an under with. There is an outside factor here though. The weather is expected to be really ugly for this one. 

Memphis is expected to get 20-25 mph winds and some rain during this game. Both of these teams are very pass happy generally, but I fully expect it to be very difficult to throw the ball as normal. Will they still get some big plays? Yes. Still, this game is totaled extremely high. Everything has to go right for the over when the number is set like this. With weather like this, I don't think that will happen.

Games with 12 mph sustained winds and totals of 60 points or higher have cashed at 60% under in the past ten years. We can certainly assume that with rain the number would improve.

I think the elements will make the two teams more conservative. I'll go under this very high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between Alabama and Mississippi State in Mississippi. Take a look back at those games and you'll see a lot of the same characteristics. 

Both of these teams run the ball at a high percentage of their overall offensive plays. That has been the case for quite some time. Alabama has generally won this game on the road with great defense and a good enough running game. 

Alabama is 2nd and Mississippi State is 24th in yards per play allowed this year. Alabama runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Mississippi State runs it on 62.4% of their plays. That's extremely run heavy compared to the country overall. 

Both teams are also playing slower this year. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running I see this one staying under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers meet in a Big 10 battle in Evanston on Saturday. The wind is expected to be around 14 mph during this game. That's enough to make it difficult to throw the football downfield. 

Northwestern's rushing defense ranks 7th in the nation when you account for strength of schedule. I think they can make Purdue one dimensional on offense and then get after the passer. 

Northwestern's offensive line play has been terrible this year. They rank among the 20 worst offensive lines in the country. Thorson has been under pressure immediately on a bunch of plays. Jackson has been banged up at running back, and Northwestern just hasn't gotten anything going on offense this year.

The under is 36-15-1 in Northwestern's last 52 home games. The under is 4-0 in Purdue's last 4. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have played a bunch of low scoring games this year. Inside Sun Belt play, they have three games that have finished with a total of 34 points or less in the game. One other game (Idaho) was 20-20 before overtime. Only one of their conference games has gone over this total and it was a 33-23 game against LA Monroe (who plays in a ton of high scoring affairs). 

South Alabama's defense is far better than the average one in this conference, and they play at a slow pace. The Jaguars offense hasn't been any good all year.

Arkansas State doesn't have any running game. The Red Wolves air it out a lot, but South Alabama's secondary is the strength of their team.

I think this one is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and the Georgia State Panthers meet on Saturday in a game where both defenses have significant statistical edges on the offenses. These are two teams who have struggled to put together long drives. The defenses are both good at keeping everything in front of them and avoiding long plays from scrimmage. 

I had this one totaled far below this number. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Auburn and Georgia have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. These are two of the top ten defenses in the country. Both teams run much more than the average team. Georgia plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the country. Auburn ranks in the middle of the pack in tempo.

With a lot of running and two elite defenses, the clock should keep ticking throughout this game. I had this one projected in the mid 40's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense looked amazing against Ohio State last week, but Iowa's offense hadn't been all that impressive for much of the season. I think they come back down to earth here. Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the nation. The Badgers rank sixth in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Wisconsin's running attack is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in some years in the past. Wisconsin ranks 25th in the nation in yards per carry. That is despite playing against some really bad defenses against the run. They are good at running the ball, but they aren't elite. The strength of this Badgers team is their defense.

Wisconsin ranks 129th in pace of play this year out of 130 teams. They will eat up the time by going on long drives that can use up more than half of a quarter. 

The last two years these teams have played to 10-6 and 17-9 final scores. 

The under is 6-0 in Iowa's last 6 after scoring 40 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two at Wisconsin. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have scored 37 points in each of their last two games and that was against SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. 

Lafayette's defense is very weak. They allowed 66 points earlier this year against Tulsa. The Ragin' Cajuns like to play quickly. They are top 40 in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss is top 20 in the nation in pace.

A fast paced game where Ole Miss puts up a big number here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Ohio has gotten much improved quarterback play this year. The Bobcats have been a really good offense in MAC play this season. Ohio has actually scored 42 points or more in 6 of their 9 games this year. They have scored 48, 48, and 45 in their last three games.

Toledo has the best quarterback in the MAC in Logan Woodside. Their offense is very explosive. They have tremendous balance and break off a lot of big plays.

I see a back and forth game with both offenses having the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved a bit since I made the selection on Monday. I rate this as a 4 star play up to 65 and a 3 star play up to 69 points. Thank you.* 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have their quarterback back in the fold and this offense should be able to have success against a Bowling Green defense that is one of the worst in the nation.

Bowling Green's offense has been much better in recent weeks, and Buffalo's defense has several key injuries.

The tempo of both teams ranks among the 30 fastest in the country. With two bad defenses and a number this low, I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars offense looked a lot better last week against San Jose State, but Fresno State is a whole different animal than San Jose State. This Fresno State defense has been tremendous this year. Fresno State ranks 19th in the country in yards per play allowed and that is despite the fact they played Washington and Alabama. Fresno State is coming off a disappointing loss to UNLV and I expect them to come out ready to go in this one.

BYU's defense ranks in the top 50 in yards per play allowed. The Cougars aren't great on this side of the ball, but they are pretty good.

Both teams play at a very slow pace. Fresno State ranks among the 20 slowest teams in the country. BYU ranks among the 25 slowest teams in the country (out of 130).

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Miami/Virginia Tech Totals CASH* The Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies are both very good teams. Both of them are led by their strong defenses.

Miami is 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Virginia Tech is 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Miami's secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to the third lowest QBR on average of any team in the country. Virginia Tech is 7th in that same category. The Hokies always have an elite secondary.

Miami's offense was great against non-conference opponents, but they have struggled of late. They have multiple injuries and the offensive line is a weakness. Virginia Tech's pass rush is above average and should cause problems. 

Virginia Tech's offense is 48th in the country in yards per play. The running game has been weak all year, and Miami's secondary is tremendous. 

I see this as a hard fought battle where both defenses have the upper hand in a tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA defense was very good last year. I expect them to improve as conference play goes along this year. Their coach is a defensive minded coach who will work hard on that side of the ball.

FIU is coming off a high scoring game against Marshall last week, but in general their offense has been mediocre or worse. 

Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. UTSA ranks among the five slowest teams in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs pound the football with their running game. That means a running clock for much of the game. Georgia's defense ranks third in yards per play allowed in the country. This is an excellent Georgia team.

South Carolina's defense has been pretty good this year. The Gamecocks offense isn't efficient at all. 

South Carolina ranks in the bottom 15 in pace of play and Georgia ranks in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play. There shouldn't be many possessions in this game. 

Look for Georgia to grab the lead and run consistently and use up the clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense isn't what it was last year, but they should be able to pile up the points against this North Texas defense. North Texas has allowed 37.9 points per game so far this year, which ranks them among the ten worst in the nation in that category. 

North Texas is averaging 37.4 points per game this year. This Mean Green offense is much improved this year under the leadership of Seth Littrell and quarterback Mason Fine. Fine is a rising star who should end up being great in this offense. He's already very good. 

Only two North Texas games this year have stayed under this total. Louisiana Tech's offense is better than they have shown, and I expect a big number from them here. North Texas will likely stay close too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are both very pass heavy teams so far this season. Vanderbilt is throwing it on 56.5% of their plays. Western Kentucky is throwing it on 59.8% of their offensive plays. Passing teams are clearly better for the over when it comes to the drives taking less time with the clock stopped for incomplete passes.

Western Kentucky's offense was really disappointing early in the year. They are finally putting it together of late. The Hilltoppers have scored 108 points in their last three games. Mike White and the passing game are finally clicking. 

Vanderbilt's defense has fallen apart of late. They have allowed 34 points or more in four straight games. That includes a game against Florida where they allowed 38 points to that bad Florida offense. 

Western Kentucky's run defense is good, but their secondary is a weakness.

I see both teams scoring a solid amount here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas State Wildcats don't have as good of a defense as they have had in recent seasons. Kansas State's run defense is good, but their secondary is a bit of a problem. Texas Tech is clearly capable of exposing problems in the secondary. Kansas State ranks 72nd in the nation in QBR allowed year to date. 

Kansas State's rushing attack has been very good this year. The Wildcats are averaging 5.10 yards per carry. Texas Tech's weakness is their run defense. The Red Raiders allowed 5.78 yards per carry two weeks ago against Iowa State and 7.15 yards per carry last week against Oklahoma. 

The history between these two is for high scoring contests. Dating back to 2008 here is the final total of all the matchups between these two teams: 86, 80, 75, 79, 75, 58, 103, and 82. Only one of the games was under, and it was close to this total. 

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners offense ranks as the second least efficient offense in the nation out of 130 teams. UTEP has scored 16 points or less in 6 of their 7 games this year. They have been held to 14 points or less in 5 of 7 games. 

UTEP's defense has been much better in the last couple games since Mike Price took over as interim coach. It seems the Miners have changed up their schemes a bit and allowed less big plays. This defense ranked as one of the bottom 10 in efficiency in the first five games. They rank in the top 50 in the last couple games.

UTSA's defense was a major strength last year. They have looked worse of late, but a date with UTEP should fix their defensive struggles.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Virginia Tech Hokies are running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays so far this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule though, Virginia Tech has the 110th best rushing attack in the country. Duke's defense is 51st in the country in rushing defense adjusted by strength of schedule. 

Duke's offense ranks as one of the five least efficient offenses in the country in their last four games. The Blue Devils haven't gotten any big plays, and they are up against a Virginia Tech defense that is very good here.

The forecast calls for 8 mph wind (nothing too major) but a 70% chance of rain in this one. That should make the game plans a little more conservative. Both defenses excel against the run so that plays into their hands.

The under is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 ACC games. The under is 4-0 in VA Tech's last 4 following an ATS cover. A 15-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* While this is a low total, I think there is a good reason for it to be low. In fact, I made this total 38 points. We have two teams who like to play smash mouth football here. They are going to want to run the football consistently and both teams play at a slow pace. 

What about the defenses? Minnesota ranks 25th in yards per play allowed and Iowa ranks 39th, so both are solid. Neither offense is very good. Iowa is 85th in the nation in yards per play at 5.2 per play. Minnesota is 87th at 5.1 per play. 

The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running plays, I see this staying under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank 110th in the nation in total defense. The Old Dominion Monarchs rank 103rd in the nation in total defense. 

North Texas is playing at a very quick pace under Seth Littrell in the air raid offense. Mason Fine is a very good quarterback, and I expect him and this North Texas offense to have a lot of success against an Old Dominion defense that has been ravaged by injuries this year.

Old Dominion's offense is much better with Lawry back and healthy at running back. North Texas has allowed a whopping 10 plays of 50 yards or more on the year, so expect some explosive plays from Old Dominion here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones defense is one of the most improved defenses in the country this year. They rank 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.6 per play. Iowa State was great on defense last weekend in their win at Texas Tech. Iowa State has a big homefield advantage as well, and that should make it tougher on TCU's offense here.

The TCU defense has been elite of late. TCU has a lot of veterans on this defense, and Patterson is a good defensive minded coach. TCU has allowed 6 points in their last two games.

I think perception of the Big 12 as everyone being high scoring has this number inflated by several points.

Take the under. 

*I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.* 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators take on the Georgia Bulldogs this weekend. Florida's offense has been really bad all season, and it is hard to imagine them turning things around much against a very good defense like Georgia. 

Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs are going to run the football consistently here, and that uses up the clock. Florida is going to try to run as much as they can as well, because their quarterback play has been terrible.

The last two years this game has been extremely low scoring. I see another low scoring battle here with Georgia holding Florida to a very low number.

Take the under. 

*I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.* 

*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total Takedown* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has been very good against the run this year. Northwestern ranks 19th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That is despite going against great rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Penn State already this year. 

Michigan State has run the ball on almost 60% of their offensive plays this year. I think Northwestern can do a solid job slowing down the run game here. 

Northwestern's offensive line is one of the worst in the Big 10. Michigan State ranks near the top of the country in quarterback hurries. Thorson isn't going to be comfortable in this game. 

Michigan State is 6th in the country in yards per play allowed. 

The defenses have the advantage across the board here. Also important to note, the wind is expected to be sustained at about 16 or 17 mph during this game. That is plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Expect more running and conservative game plans.

The under is 36-14-1 in NW's last 51 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense is really playing well right now. Appalachian State has a really good offensive front, and they'll have a big edge in the trenches in this game. 

UMass has been much better in recent games offensively. UMass has scored 50 and 55 points in their last two games. They won't score that here, but I do think they have enough weapons to give a short-handed Appalachian State defense some trouble.

UMass has been playing fast of late, and with them pushing the tempo a total of only 55 isn't very high. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks had 21 yards of offense against TCU last week. Kansas has failed to score a point in their last two games. They'll probably score here, but I don't think they score very many. A total set this high with one team (Kansas State) that plays so slowly, and another team that is so inept on offense, I have to take the under.

I do think Kansas State can score quite a few here, but I think this total should be around 55, so I'll take the value at this number. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has actually gotten a little better in the last few weeks. They didn't even allow 400 yards to VA Tech last week, but the Hokies scored 59 points. It was UNC interceptions and special teams blunders that led to the big point total for VA Tech. 

As North Carolina's defense has improved, their efficiency on offense has fallen badly. The number of injuries this team has on the offensive side of the ball right now is mind boggling. They have no real playmakers, and sustaining drives has been very difficult for them. It should be really hard against a Miami defense that is one of the top 20 in the nation.

Miami has some very big games on deck, and I'm not sure they will want to run the score up here. This is a good spot to get out with a win and move on for the Hurricanes.

The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 October games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 ACC games. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather is the story here. Pullman is experiencing some nasty weather this weekend. The current forecast calls for a 80% chance of rain with a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 20 mph. 

That makes it very hard for passing attacks to work. Washington State will have to run more than normal. Colorado's passing defense is their strength, and Washington State isn't a very good running team.

Colorado's offense has been a disappointment all year. The Buffaloes are struggling to get explosive plays. Alex Grinch's defense is much improved at Washington State, and I think they bounce back from last week's game with a strong defensive effort.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Michigan/Penn State MONEY* The Michigan Wolverines have held all six of their opponents to season lows in total yards. There is no doubt this Michigan defense is excellent. Penn State's defense is 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.01. Michigan is second at only 3.68 per play allowed.

Penn State ranks in the bottom half of the country in terms of pace of play. Michigan ranks in the bottom 20 in tempo as well. I don't see either team playing quickly here.

Michigan is first in the nation in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. I think Michigan can reduce Penn State's big play ability much better than most teams.

Michigan's passing attack has been non-existent of late, and Penn State's front seven should be up for the challenge of stuffing the run.

There's a good chance this game stays in the 30's.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total*  I had this one lined at 70 points, so this is a big play for me. Both teams play at a very quick pace. Both teams have the ability to break a bunch of explosive plays. I don't see either defense being able to contain the opposition. Big bet on the over for me. 

North Texas' Mason Fine is really coming into his own in this offense. Florida Atlantic hasn't allowed less than 5.48 yards per play in a game against an FBS opponent all year. 

The North Texas defense has allowed 5.06 yards per play or more in all their games against FBS opponents. 

Both of these teams play fast and there will be a lot of possessions. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has been exposed in SEC play because of a weak run defense. Mississippi State plays at a quick tempo and they can break a lot of big running plays. Look for Nick Fitzgerald to have a big game here. 

The Kentucky offense has a nice balanced attack, and I believe Mississippi State's defense is a bit overvalued right now. 

Last year's game sailed over the total and I see no reason to believe this will be any different. Look for big plays from both teams in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Buffalo is starting their third string quarterback in this one. Miami (Ohio) is without starting quarterback Gus Ragland. Billy Bahl is a big downgrade from Ragland. Vantrease gets the start for Buffalo with Anderson and Jackson expected to miss this game. 

Expect both teams to be far more cautious with their play calling here. These aren't explosive offenses to begin with, and I expect even less big plays with untested quarterbacks in the game. 

Look for the defenses to be geared to stop the run, and the run is likely to come often given the quarterback situation. I expect a sloppy low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Missouri is pushing the pace more again. After not play quite as quick for a couple games, the Tigers have been the fastest paced team on offense in the country in their last two games. Missouri's offense is starting to get more efficient, and this Idaho defense shouldn't be able to slow them down much at all.

Idaho has a good quarterback and should be able to complete some big plays against a weak Missouri secondary. Missouri has allowed a minimum of 31 points in every game this year, including a win over Missouri State 72-43 in the season opener.

Look for Missouri to run it up with a big number and Idaho to score a solid amount as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* Iowa is a team that relies heavily on the running game. That plays into the strength of the Northwestern defense. The Wildcats are allowing only 3.44 yards per carry despite facing some good rushing attacks this year. 

Northwestern's offense has been throwing it a lot more often this year. Justin Jackson is banged up and that is slowing down the offense a lot. The offensive line is a major problem for Northwestern. Look for Iowa to get a lot of pressure on Thorson here.

The wild card here is the weather. The forecast calls for 15 to 20 mph winds through this game, which makes both passing attacks have a much harder time. Wind is your best friend as an under bettor.

The under is 35-15-1 in Northwestern's last 51 home games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado State's offense is one of the best in the country when it comes to efficiency. Inside Mountain West play, there aren't going to be many defenses that can slow them down. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play in their last three games, which is good for 10th best in the nation.

Nevada's defense ranks 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.2. Colorado State's defense isn't much better at 5.8 per play allowed. 

Nevada ranks in the top ten in the country in fastest tempo on offense this year. Colorado State's pace rank is almost exactly the average in the nation. 

I expect Colorado State to get a lead here with big plays and Nevada to be forced to play extremely quick to try to get back in the game. 

Look for plenty of explosive plays and uptempo offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over*  The New Mexico Lobos run a unique option offense. New Mexico always ranks near the top of college football in yards per carry. They had extra time to prepare for this game, and in their last contest they average 8.85 yards per carry. Expect some more explosive runs against a Fresno State defense that isn't accustomed to defending the option.  

Fresno State is looking to play faster under their new coaching staff. This offense is clearly improved and the weakness of the New Mexico defense is their secondary. Look for Fresno State to take advantage of that. 

This total is set relatively low, and I see value on the over. 

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes defense has been dominant of late. This defensive line is one of the best in the country, and they are causing some major problems for opponents. I expect them to be in the Nebraska backfield frequently here.

J.T. Barrett has been inconsistent this year, and this is a spot where he has some factors working against him. Nebraska's defense should be fired up to make a better showing after losing 62-3 to Ohio State last year in Columbus. Another major factor here is the weather. The wind is expected to be blowing at a sustained 20 mph during this game. That's plenty to make it very hard to throw accurate passes.

Tanner Lee isn't very good, and the weather will make Nebraska even more one dimensional. Ohio State's secondary should give him plenty of trouble too.

I had this one projected at 55 before accounting for the weather, and the sustained winds of 20 mph are certainly worth at least 3 points on the total making this one quite a bit off my projection now.

The under is 7-2 in Nebraska's last 9 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico State Aggies rank 11th in the country in pace of play. New Mexico State is playing extremely fast and creating lots of scoring opportunities with their talented offense. Tyler Rogers is coming off an awful game at quarterback for them, but overall he's been solid and I expect him to bounce back against a Georgia Southern pass defense that is very weak. The New Mexico State running game is great with two strong runners as well. I think New Mexico State puts up quite a few points here.

Georgia Southern's triple option attack has gotten better in recent weeks. New Mexico State can be run on. They allowed 9.21 yards per carry last week against Appalachian State. On the year, they rank among the 30 worst run defenses in the country.

The over is 23-7-1 in the Aggies last 31 road games. The over is 4-0 in GA Southern's last 4 vs a team with a losing record. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons offense put up more than 500 yards against Miami (Ohio) last week. Bowling Green ranks 4th in the nation in tempo on offense (amount of time between snaps).

Ohio ranks 58th out of 130 in time between snaps, so they are relatively quick as well. The Bobcats defense has been much worse in recent weeks, and if you look at their injury report that makes a lot of sense. There are a ton of key players injured here.

Bowling Green's defense ranks 124th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Ohio should have success both through the air and on the ground.

I made this total 64.  

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls defense isn't all that good to start with. They have a few injuries that make them short-handed, and they are coming off a seven overtime game. I expect Northern Illinois' uptempo offense to get plenty of scoring chances here. Northern Illinois ranks in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo.

Buffalo's Drew Anderson has really impressed me at quarterback. He's played better than their original starter Tyree Jackson. Anderson is more of an accurate passer who can spread the ball around.

Both of these teams play at a faster than average tempo, and there are no weather concerns at all for this game. This total is too low by several points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION*  Baylor and Oklahoma State are not two teams that I would typically be looking to play an under with, but the weather and this high number make this a must play for me. 

Wind is by far the toughest weather condition for quarterbacks to deal with. Both of these teams throw the ball a lot and I expect  the wind to make their pass efficiency numbers lower than normal. The forecast here calls for sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.

The Oklahoma State defense is clearly better than last year and I expect Baylor's defense to improve with a defensive minded coach at the helm. While this game will likely be fairly high scoring, this kind of extreme number is a must play on the under in these conditions. 

The under is 6-0 in Baylor's last 6 versus a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Baylor's last 5 after allowing 170 or fewer passing yards last game. The under is 5-0 in Oklahoma State's last 5 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground in their last game. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers defense has been very good of late. Nebraska has allowed less than 4 yards per play to three straight opponents. Granted the opponents weren't all that good, but the Cornhuskers have clearly improved on defense.

On offense, I don't trust Nebraska at all. Tanner Lee isn't the answer at quarterback, and the backfield has suffered a lot of injuries. 

Wisconsin is going to do what they do all the time. The Badgers are going to run the football consistently and they are going to move very slowly. They rank in the bottom ten in terms of tempo every single year. 

Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the country. They are allowing only 4.00 yards per play on the season. The Badgers aren't likely to give up very much against a questionable Nebraska offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Texas Longhorns defense has gotten much better in the last few weeks. Texas has a bunch of talented guys on their defense, and now it appears they are becoming a unit. Texas allowed only 7 points at Iowa State last week. They took USC to overtime in a low scoring game a couple games ago. This isn't the same defense we saw in week one. 

Kansas State ranks 94th in offensive pace of play. The Wildcats aren't going to play fast. Texas ranks 68th in offensive pace of play. They aren't playing as fast as many expected either. 

Bill Snyder's team only throws the ball 35.5% of the time. They will run the ball and use the clock as much as they can. Snyder is a great coach, and he knows they are at a talent disadvantage here. They'll look to shorten the game and use up a bunch of time. 

Kansas State ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Texas has been a top 25 defense in that category in their last three games. 

The under is 4-0 in the Wildcats last 4 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the Longhorns last 4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 12-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers only throw the ball on 31% of their plays on offense. Minnesota is going to ground and pound here, and the Golden Gophers don't move quickly either. How slow are they? Minnesota is taking the second most amount of time between snaps (only Army is moving slower). The Golden Gophers will slow this game down.

Purdue has been much improved this year, and they had extra time to prepare for this game. I think that helps them most on the defensive end here. On the other side, P.J. Fleck was extremely disappointed in his team's defensive effort last week against Maryland. They should be better here.

A major factor in this play is the weather. The weather is calling for a 50% chance of showers with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 mph in this game. That's some very unfavorable conditions for scoring.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* Air Force and Navy run the same triple option attack. That gives the defense a massive advantage in this matchup. They practice against it every day. Usually when these teams play against a normal opponent, the defenses aren't well prepared to stop the option. In this game, both teams know their assignments really well.

Both teams run almost every single play, and the clock will be ticking away quickly here. Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in DeKalb will be a big problem here. Northern Illinois has been throwing the football more often than normal this year, but they'll have to go back toward the ground game here. Kent State has wanted to throw more with Bollas at quarterback, but they'll be back to running a bunch with these conditions.  How bad will the weather be? The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph throughout the game with gusts up to 30 mph. That's enough to completely change game plans. Nothing helps an under more than heavy winds.

Kent State is 127th in the nation in total offense. The Golden Flashes haven't scored more than 13 points in a game this year against an FBS opponent. They have scored 3, 3, and 0 in three of the contests. They'll face a Northern Illinois defense that ranks fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Can Kent top the 10 point mark here? I wouldn't count on it. 

The Kent State defense isn't as bad as it has looked. Kent State was torched by Clemson and Louisville. 

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two at Northern Illinois. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers pass defense has been atrocious the last two years. Pittsburgh allowed Oklahoma State to score 49 points and throw more than 400 yards in the first half alone earlier this year. I'm not suggesting Syracuse's offense is as good as Oklahoma State's, but the Orange will play very fast and throw the ball around a bunch.

Last year, the final score when these two met was 76-61. Pitt has 644 yards of offense and Syracuse had 668 yards of offense. 

Because Pittsburgh has played some teams that slow the game down of late (Rice, Georgia Tech) that has lowered this number. 

Max Browne threw the ball well last week, and this Syracuse defense is really bad. With a bunch of possessions for both teams, I'm taking the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions haven't allowed more than 352 yards in a game so far this year. This Penn State defensive front is aggressive, and they get into the backfield often. They have 45 tackles for a loss so far this year, which is good for third in the country. 

Northwestern's offensive front allowed 8 sacks against Wisconsin last week, and the Wildcats have a bad combination of an offensive line that is very weak and a quarterback that holds the ball too long. That should be a problem again here.

Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and the Wildcats have typically played Penn State tough, especially in Evanston.

The weather is a major reason for me wanting the under in this game. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30 mph. Those kinds of winds are definitely a big positive for the under. There is a chance of showers throughout this game as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors pass defense is extremely weak. Colorado State has big play makers on the offense at multiple spots, including the best receiver in the Mountain West. The Rams are going to get a lot of big plays in this game.

Colorado State finished last season by scoring 46, 49, and 63 points in their last three Mountain West games. They probably won't score that much here, but I think they'll be in the end zone quite a few times.

Hawaii's offense is improved this year under Dru Brown at the quarterback spot. Last week they struggled, but don't overreact to that, the game last week was played in bad weather at Wyoming (high wind). Colorado State's defense isn't very good. In fact, they are allowing 6.2 yards per play this year, which ranks among the 30 worst defenses in the country. Hawaii is allowing 6.3 yards per play. 

The over is 16-6 in Hawaii's last 22 games. The over is 4-1 in Colorado State's last 5 road games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels have a good offensive line. It is one of the best in the conference. UNLV has been running the ball and breaking some big plays in the running game. The Rebels have a couple receivers who are capable of getting open deep, and as a whole their offense is clearly improved from a year ago.

Defensively, UNLV is way down from a year ago, and I expect a lot of teams to put up big numbers on UNLV this year.

The San Jose State Spartans are coached by a previous Dino Babers assistant. What does that mean? It means a very fast tempo and very little defense being played. Utah State rolled up 61 points on San Jose State last week. Utah State isn't very good on offense. This is a Spartans team that is going to give up points by the bunches all year long.

The over is 13-3 in UNLV's last 16 home games. 

I think this has a solid chance of getting to 70 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Auburn Tigers have a top ten defense this year. Auburn is tied for fourth in the country at 3.63 yards per play allowed. 

Mississippi State's defense ranks 14th in the country in yards per play allowed. The Bulldogs have been significantly better at wrapping up on defense this year. 

This is a matchup of two good defenses, and neither team is playing very fast. The Bulldogs are slightly slower than the average team in the country, and Auburn actually ranks among the 40 slowest teams in the country here. 

Nick Fitzgerald has to do too much for Mississippi State on offense. He's a very good player, but the best defenses will find ways to slow him down and force someone else to beat them.

Auburn's passing game hasn't gotten going this year, and they have been very one-dimensional.

Both teams run the ball more than 60% of the time. A moving clock is great for an under.

The under is 5-0 in Auburn's last 5 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates play extremely fast and they play no defense. They are dead last against the pass in the country and 123rd in the country in run defense.

South Florida ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Bulls will be glad to push the tempo and score a ton of points in this one. Flowers is a playmaker and he and his offense have looked better the last couple games. East Carolina's defense should make them look even better.

South Florida has had some trouble defending the passing game this year. East Carolina has a decent passing game and with the number of possessions there will be in this one, I see them scoring a decent amount of points as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Northwestern and Wisconsin have a history of tight low scoring games. I see no reason to expect anything different here. In the last four meetings, the highest final total was 41 points. The last two games finished 13-7 and 21-7. This one likely won't be that low, but this total is too high.

Wisconsin and Northwestern are both running teams first and that means a lot of ticking clock throughout in this one. Both teams will be geared to stop the run, and I think we'll have a lot of long slow drives in this one. Expect teams to have to settle for field goals and that's a big plus in this type of slow plod it out game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday night. Both of these offenses have had serious trouble of late. Nebraska had only 306 yards against a very weak Rutgers defense. Nebraska put up only 17 points the previous week against Northern Illinois from the MAC.

Illinois hasn't gained more than 354 in a game so far this year. The Fighting Illini were held to just 14 first downs and 216 yards in their season opener against Ball State. The Fighting Illini beat Western Kentucky, but they still only had 300 yards. They racked up some yardage late against USF in a blowout loss.

Both of these teams rank among the 30 slowest paced teams in the country.

Nebraska and Illinois are both improved on defense. Nebraska's defense has been great the last two weeks, and Illinois has been very good on defense in their home games this year. Neither team has a good option at all at quarterback either.

This game likely won't be pretty, and I think it stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Iowa ranks 27th in the nation in highest percentage of running plays compared to overall offensive plays. The Hawkeyes are going to come out and try to run the ball consistently at Penn State. I don't see Iowa taking many chances in the passing game here.

Penn State is playing slower on offense than they did last year, and Iowa is always a team that takes their time with the football.

The Iowa front seven is solid, and I think they'll make Barkley (a great runner) work hard for his yards here.

There is bad blood here after Penn State said Iowa quit in last year's game. Iowa should bring a strong effort, and I think that should help the under. 

The under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 home games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats are playing slower this year than they did last season. They've also been much improved on defense. They rank second in the nation in run defense.

The Florida Gators defense hasn't been great in the first two games, but they faced two pretty good teams. Florida should settle in and be a top 20 defense by the end of the year.

The Wildcats offense is running the ball 63% of the time on their plays this year. Florida is playing 122nd fastest out of 130 teams in the country. It's a combination that should equal a lot of ticking clock and less possessions for each team. 

Kentucky is extremely hungry to stop their losing streak against Florida, and this should be a good environment for football Saturday. 

My number here was 42.5, so I see several points of value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers rolled up some amazing offensive stats against an FCS school, and in their two games against FBS opponents they have scored 13 (against S Carolina) and 3 points (against Purdue). Now, they face easily the best defense they have seen so far this year. 

Missouri ranked in the top ten in tempo all last year. They are outside the top 30 so far this season. They have clearly slowed down. Drew Lock has been extremely inefficient at quarterback.

Auburn talked about playing faster a lot in the offseason, but the Tigers are playing slower than the average team in the country. The offense needs more work, and they run the ball at a very high rate (keeps the clock ticking).

The Auburn defense is first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Auburn's offense is 102nd in the nation in yards per play. Auburn should control this game, and their defense should do the heavy lifting.

This total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is performing like a well-oiled machine right now. Oklahoma State is averaging 8.64 yards per play through three games. That's a tremendous number. The Cowboys like to play fast as well. Their overall tempo numbers are skewed a bit right now, because they have been blowing teams out so badly that they slow down a lot by the end of the game. 

TCU ranks 33rd quickest in the country in tempo, and their offense has been much better so far this year. I expect them to be able to move the ball and score plenty here on an Oklahoma State defense that I believe is overrated right now.

I see a typical Big 12 shootout in Stillwater on Saturday.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Appalachian State is a very good mid-major type team. The Mountaineers offense leans very heavily though on running back Jalin Moore. Moore is questionable and his coach said he will be a gametime decision for this one. Moore had a walking boot on earlier this week, so he is clearly in a lot of pain. Depth at running back is a problem for App State this year. 

Appalachian State has one of the best defenses of any of the smaller name teams in the country. The Mountaineers have a very good secondary full of veterans. 

Wake Forest's offense put up big numbers against Presbyterian and Utah State. Appalachian State's defense will be a much tougher unit to face. 

Wake Forest's defense has been very solid the last couple years, and Dave Clawson is a defensive-minded coach.

I think Appalachian State comes ready to play here in a rare chance to host a "big" guy from their state. Tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't like to make a habit of betting under this low of a number, but I like the value here. I think this game stays in the 30's. 

Vanderbilt's offense is definitely better than they were a couple years ago, but the Commodores are going to get a wakeup test when they face the best defenses in the country. I don't see Vanderbilt being able to run on this very strong Bama defensive line. I still don't trust Shurmur to be the guy to make big plays in this spot either.

Alabama's offense is good, but Vanderbilt's defense has exceeded my expectations in a big way. Vanderbilt played a good MTSU offense and shut them down. They completely shut down Kansas State last week too. Vanderbilt ranks in the top five in the nation in all major categories.

Both teams play among the 30 slowest paces of play in college football.

I'll be surprised if Vanderbilt scores more than 10, and I see this as a game where both teams run the ball a lot.

The under is 55-25 in Vandy's last 80 conference contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UCF is much more prepared on offense this year. Milton has a year under his belt, and he'll be much better in Scott Frost's fast paced offense. UCF put up 61 points in game one this year against FIU. They won't put up a huge number like that against Maryland, but I do think they'll get a lot of yards and scoring opportunities here.

Maryland's offense will be one of the most improved in the country this year. UCF lost a lot defensively from a year ago, and they are particularly weak at the linebacker and secondary spots. Maryland's young quarterback Hill should be able to put up some nice numbers on this UCF team.

I considered this line early in the week, and saw money coming on the under and waited. At this price, I'm willing to fly in the face of the line move and take the over. My number here is 67 points. 

There isn't expected to be any weather issues here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I've played the Tulsa over in each of the last two weeks. The final score in each of those games has topped 100 points. I don't think this one will get that high, but I have to play the over again here.

New Mexico will likely have a backup quarterback here, but the Lobos rushing attack has been great in the last few years. I think they'll be able to break big plays here too. Tulsa is easily dead last in the nation in rushing yards per carry allowed. Tulsa is allowing a whopping 7.57 yards per carry on the year, which is the worst in the country by more than half a yard! 

Tulsa's pace of play is the single fastest of any team in the country. They will be looking to play quickly and take advantage of a New Mexico defense that lacks high end talent. Tulsa is 12th in the nation in total offense.

The over is 20-6 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. 

Look for plenty of big plays from both teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* These are two option teams up against each other. Both teams run the ball more than 75% of the time. With that kind of rate of running the football, you have to be extremely efficient on offense to score a lot of points. Tulane plays at a slower than average pace. Army plays at one of the three slowest paces of any team in the country.

The practice these teams get against option attacks every day makes the defenses perform much better against the option than a typical defense. This is where they are accustomed to seeing.

I had this number at 42.

Take the under big here.