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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-22-22	Western Michigan v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5		16-10	Win	100	119 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Miami Ohio Redhawks have changed the way they play now that Aveon Smith is under center. Miami has slowed their tempo down to a crawl. They are using 33 seconds between snaps in the MAC contests. Miami is running the ball on 68.2% of their offensive plays. That plays to the strength of the Western Michigan defense, which ranks 19th at PFF in rushing defense grade. Western Michigan's offense is terrible. They haven't found a quarterback who is even decent all season. Miami is beatable through the air, but the Redhawks have been excellent against the run all season. Western Michigan is playing at a below average pace as well. Miami has had two of their last four games finish at 31 points or lower. The Redhawks should control the ball here and use the clock a bunch. I think this is a sloppy lower scoring game. Take the under.
10-22-22	Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 61		34-41	Loss	-110	46 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather here should be a big factor. An average of three major weather forecasting sites is calling for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph during this contest. That is enough wind to change the way the game is played. Spencer Sanders was playing banged up against TCU. He is tough and put in a strong effort, but he wasn't nearly as accurate later in the game. It is his throwing arm which is concerning. Oklahoma State's rushing attack is 76th in rushing play success rate. Texas is 10th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. If Sanders isn't healthy and the wind is blowing this hard, the Oklahoma State offense is in a far less than ideal situation. The Texas offense is very good. Texas though should have a bit different looking offense with this kind of weather conditions. Ewers isn't likely to be able to air it out deep as much as normal. That helps the Oklahoma State defense a bit. Wind games have consistently gone under in the long term especially wind games of this extreme. Take the under.
10-22-22	Boston College v. Wake Forest UNDER 61.5		15-43	Win	100	44 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Wake Forest's defense has quietly been a lot better this year. New defensive coordinator Brad Lambert has done a great job with improving this unit. Wake Forest is up to 41st in success rate allowed. Here, they are up against a one dimensional Boston College offense. Boston College ranks dead last in the nation in yards per carry on offense. The Boston College offensive line is awful. They are bad in run blocking and pass protection. I don't expect Phil Jurkovec to have much time to throw it in this one. Wake Forest will bring the heat and get Boston College behind the chains in this contest. Wake Forest is a good offense, and they do play fast. The Demon Deacons only rank 100th in explosiveness on offense though, so they aren't getting as many big gainers this season. I think Jeff Hafley is a good defensive mind, and the BC defense should have a good scheme ready to at least slow down Wake somewhat. Boston College had a bye week before this game to get prepared. Take the under here.
10-22-22	Northern Illinois v. Ohio OVER 64		17-24	Loss	-110	24 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Ohio Bobcats and Northern Illinois Huskies have the two best quarterbacks in the MAC in Rourke and Lombardi. Ohio's passing attack has been fantastic with Rourke leading the way this year. Ohio is averaging 6.39 yards per play overall. They are 31st in the nation in passing play success rate. The Bobcats have 17 plays of 30 yards or more this season. In MAC play, Ohio is first in total offense so far this season. Northern Illinois has a terrible pass defense. The Huskies are 129th out of 131 teams in the country in opponent QBR. They have already allowed 18 plays of 30 yards or more. Rocky Lombardi is back from injury, and that makes this Northern Illinois offense dangerous. Lombardi is a top 10 quarterback in PFF grade this year. Northern Illinois was good offensively without him, but they are excellent offensively with him on the field. Ohio's defense is 130th out of 131 teams in the country in yards per play allowed (7.02). I see no reason to believe they'll stop Northern Illinois in this one. A back and forth game. Take the over.
10-21-22	UAB v. Western Kentucky UNDER 59		17-20	Win	100	25 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UAB Blazers want to run the ball early and often. It is very rare to see a UAB total set this high. UAB had a high total against a terrible Charlotte defense last week, and that game stayed under the total by 11 points. UAB ranks 124th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Blazers have ran the ball on 65% of their offensive snaps on the season. Western Kentucky is 22nd in the nation in ypc allowed. I do think UAB will have success running here since W Kentucky hasn't faced good running teams yet, but UAB will take a quite a while to move down the field. If they are settling for some field goals it will help the under a lot. Western Kentucky's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago with Bailey Zappe and company. The Hilltoppers offense ranks 42nd in success rate in the country. UAB is easily the best secondary W Kentucky has played so far this year. UAB is 3rd in opponent QBR allowed. Both defenses have done well with not giving up big plays. UAB has allowed only 21 plays of 20 yards or more this season. W Kentucky has only allowed 24 plays of 30 yards or more. Take the under.
10-15-22	Louisiana Tech v. North Texas OVER 70		27-47	Win	100	133 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green play at a very fast pace. North Texas ranks 26th out of 131 in the nation in overall pace. The Mean Green have a really good rushing attack. In this case that is a good matchup advantage against a LA Tech team that ranks 127th in rushing play success rate and 124th in YPC. LA Tech has been throwing the football more lately. Their offense isn't consistently great, but they have great explosiveness. LA Tech has 16 plays of 30 yards or more this year. They are up against a North Texas defense that ranks 111th in YPP allowed. North Texas has played in four straight games that have gone over this total. Their games have finished with 86, 85, 78, and 73 points. LA Tech has allowed an average of 44.75 points per game against FBS opponents this year. The Bulldogs defense is a major weakness in their new system. Take the over here.
10-15-22	NC State v. Syracuse UNDER 44.5		9-24	Win	100	97 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Devin Leary was injured last week in the contest vs. Florida State. Leary hasn't been fantastic by any means this year, but the NC State offense without him looked very rough. Jack Chambers played for the last 5 minutes of the third quarter and the whole 4th quarter against Florida State. That game was very much up for grabs, and NC State only attempted one pass with him under center. They went into a run only offense and played at a slow pace. They were extremely conservative. Syracuse ranks 16th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. I don't expect NC State to have much success here. Leary is doubtful for this game and if he plays he will be less than 100 percent. The NC State defense is easily the best defense Syracuse has faced thus far. The Wolfpack have some studs who will be good NFL players in the next couple years. Syracuse ranks 112th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. A slow paced game where both offenses should be fairly conservative. I see the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under.
10-15-22	Minnesota v. Illinois UNDER 39.5		14-26	Loss	-110	117 h 10 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota defense ranks #6 in success rate allowed so far this year. Illinois ranks #2 in success rate allowed. I think these are two top 10 or 15 defenses in the country. Minnesota is 129th in tempo. The Golden Gophers run on 65% of their offensive plays. That can lead to some very long drives that kill the clock in a big way. If they aren't scoring touchdowns, but move the ball some it can really help an under. Illinois has a fantastic defensive coordinator in Ryan Walters. I think Walters is one of the top defensive minds in the country, and I expect him to have a good game plan for the Golden Gophers rushing attack. Illinois will likely be led by backup quarterback Artur Sitkowski in this one. Tommy Devito suffered an ankle injury in the team's last game. The Fighting Illini are going to need to run the ball even more than normal here. I would expect Minnesota to try to load up the box and dare Illinois to beat them through the air. The long range weather calls for 15-20 mph winds in this game. If that does come to fruition it is just a nice bonus for a game that should be dominated by the defenses. Take the under.
10-15-22	Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 53		17-41	Loss	-110	117 h 10 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines meet up in Ann Arbor in a huge Big Ten clash on Saturday afternoon. Penn State and Michigan both come into this game unbeaten. Penn State comes into this one with the #21 ranked defense in terms of YPP. The Nittany Lions have a really good defensive line that isn't likely to get pushed around by Michigan like most teams will. Penn State has only given up more than 14 points in a game once this year, so this is a very solid defense. Michigan's defense ranks #4 in the country in yards per play on defense. This team hasn't faced many good offenses though, so that ranking is a bit too high. Still, I don't consider Penn State a really good offense either. Penn State's offensive line is still a major problem, and Michigan should be able to take advantage of that weakness. Michigan has a new offensive coordinator, and they are playing much slower so far this year. Michigan ranks 119th in the nation in tempo. Penn State is 73rd in tempo so they are a bit slow as well. This is a high total for two teams playing slowly. Additionally, the long range weather forecast is calling for 20 mph winds during this game. I like the bet even without the weather, but that is a nice bonus if it happens. Take the under here.
10-08-22	Air Force v. Utah State OVER 54.5		27-34	Win	100	138 h 41 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Utah State Aggies offense has been really inefficient so far this year, but I don't think they can continue to be this bad in the long run. Logan Bonner was playing banged up and is now out for the year. Cooper Legas is the new starting quarterback for Utah State. Legas looked pretty good against a solid BYU team last week. Utah State put up 26 points in a losing cause. Utah State ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies have been unsustainably bad in the red zone. They have only even scored a point of any kind on 9/16 trips into the red zone so far this year. A bunch of interceptions/fumbles in the red zone will do that to you. This will improve in time. Air Force is a great offense led by Daniels. The Falcons will be able to run and mix in some explosive throws against a Utah State defense that is worse than a year ago. They really miss Justin Rice at the linebacker spot. Air Force is 6th in success rate on offense, and I expect them to be efficient here. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary. They haven't faced even a mediocre passing attack this year. They have faced Northern Iowa, Colorado, Wyoming, Nevada, and Navy. Utah State has the best QB and wide receiver talent they have faced. This game was 49-45 last year. I don't expect that high of a score again, but this total is set too low. Take the over.
10-08-22	Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt UNDER 60		52-28	Loss	-105	135 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as a run and gun team that would play a bunch of overs. The Rebels do play very fast. They rank third in the nation in tempo. They run the football a lot though. They also are one of the most improved defenses in the country. Ole Miss shut down the Kentucky offense last week in a really impressive performance. Kentucky scored only 19 points and this Kentucky team has a very good runner in Rodriguez and a good QB in Levis. Vanderbilt has slowed their pace down to a crawl in their last couple games. I think Clark Lea realizes his team is overmatched against their opponents now, and they are going to try to stick around by running it more and playing at a slow pace. Ole Miss will run it a bunch and mix in some deep passes from Jaxson Dart. Dart hasn't been efficient through the air so far this season. Ole Miss isn't giving up any big plays on defense so far this year. They are 4th in the nation at preventing explosive plays. Ole Miss will likely be playing from a large lead and a running clock later in the game is a plus. The under is 11-0 in Ole Miss' last 11 games against an FBS opponent. Take the under.
10-08-22	Duke v. Georgia Tech OVER 53.5		20-23	Loss	-110	62 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Duke Blue Devils have a very good quarterback in Riley Leonard. Leonard is averaging more than six yards per carry. Leonard also has a completion percentage of 72.0% on the season thus far. Duke ranks 10th in rushing play success rate in the country. The Blue Devils have a huge edge over the Georgia Tech run defense who ranks 119th in rushing play success rate allowed. Duke is 15th in yards per play in the country. They haven't scored less than 27 points in a game all year. They have scored 30 points or more in all but one game. Georgia Tech's game was extremely low scoring last week, but that was at least somewhat thanks to the wind and rain in Pittsburgh. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack impressed me in that game though. GA Tech had 232 rushing yards in that game. Duke's defense is middle of the road in general. The Yellow Jackets have been abysmal in the red zone, but that should positively regress toward the mean in the long haul. Georgia Tech has scored on only 10 of their 18 trips into the red zone this year. They have just 6 TD's in those 18 trips inside the 20 yard line. This is a low total for a game with two questionable defenses. Duke has become an impressive offense with Leonard this year. Take the over.
10-08-22	Tennessee v. LSU UNDER 65		40-13	Win	100	23 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee offense is very good. They have only played one good defense this year though. That was the Pitt game, where Tennessee only scored 27 in regulation. Wins over Ball State and Akron weren't much of a test. LSU has looked pretty good on defense for most of the year. I'm not impressed with the LSU offense though. Jayden Daniels is banged up, but expected to try to play through it here. The best play for the LSU offense has been Jayden Daniels scrambling and making something happen on a busted play. I'm not sure he'll be able to do that as much here. LSU threw for just 85 yards against Auburn last week. LSU is likely going to try to slow the pace of this game down. I don't think Brian Kelly wants a shootout against this Volunteers team. Both of these teams are run heavy, which will mean a moving clock for much of the game. I think this one will be relatively high scoring, but this is a very high total. A 35-24 or 34-28 type game still says under. Take the under.
10-01-22	Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 51		26-21	Win	100	126 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Pitt Panthers rank 126th out of 131 teams in the country in pace of play. Pitt also runs the ball on nearly 62% of their offensive snaps. The Panthers are very happy to run the ball and use up the clock, especially when they have a lead later in the game. Pitt is a huge 24 point favorite in this game against lowly Georgia Tech. They should be in the role of running the ball and using up the clock a bunch in this game. Georgia Tech's offense has scored 10, 10, and 0 points against their three FBS opponents this year. Those opponents were Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF. The Yellow Jackets now face a Pitt team with a great defensive line. The Georgia Tech offensive line is in trouble in this one. The Pitt offense has only been mediocre. They rank 61st in the nation in yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense has at least been very good at preventing explosive plays (20th best in the country). Take the under.
10-01-22	South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 50		20-17	Win	100	124 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I really like the South Alabama defense. Kane Wommack is a tremendous defensive mind. The Jaguars are 29th in the country in yards per play allowed so far this year. They are 19th in YPC allowed. Louisiana is 109th in rushing play success rate on offense. They will try to, but I don't think the Ragin' Cajuns will have success running the football against this Jaguars front. Louisiana has been really inconsistent in the passing game too, and they really haven't played a good secondary yet. Louisiana's offense ranks only 100th in the nation in yards per play on offense despite facing a schedule of SE Louisiana, E Michigan, Rice, and UL Monroe. That's a terrible schedule of defenses. The Louisiana defense is 52nd in defensive success rate allowed. They have been really bad in the red zone, but I think that shows there is some regression to the mean coming for them in the red zone. Opponents have scored 10 TD's in 13 trips into the red zone against them. Neither of these teams really want to play all that fast, and this total is at a point where a 28-20 type game stays under. Take the under here.
10-01-22	Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 60.5		13-27	Win	100	47 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather report for this game is looking worse as it gets closer. These are two teams who usually rely on the pass very heavily, but that could change some here. The forecast is calling for rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of about 18 mph and gusts to 33 mph. That kind of wind alone can make a large difference, and with rain combined it is even more of a difference maker. Michigan State has a very good run defense, so if there is increased running in this game it certainly helps the Spartans defense. Michigan State offensively isn't nearly as efficient when running the ball as they were last year (losing Kenneth Walker makes a big difference for this team), and Maryland should be able to at least slow them down. With this weather report just 48 hours out, I'm going to take the under here.
10-01-22	Fresno State v. Connecticut UNDER 52.5		14-19	Win	100	22 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UConn Huskies rank 107th in the nation in tempo. Even when they are losing, UConn is playing slowly and running the football a lot. UConn is running the football on 63% of their offensive plays on the season. They are playing with a backup quarterback since their clear best starting QB was injured early in the year. Fresno State will be without star quarterback Jake Haener for this game. Fife is a decent backup, but he is clearly a step down from Haener. The Bulldogs will likely be a bit more conservative on offense with him. The weather here calls for rain which will be heavy at times during the game. A wind of about 11 or 12 mph and gusts to 20 mph are also a factor. This kind of weather is a clear plus for the under. The weather combined with the backup QB's makes me like the under here. Take the under.
10-01-22	Michigan v. Iowa UNDER 43.5		27-14	Win	100	118 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I think Iowa has a top 3 or 4 defense in the country. Iowa's linebackers are elite as always, and their secondary is tremendous once again this year. Iowa was embarrassed defensively by Michigan in the Wolverines 45-3 win in the Big Ten Championship last season. This unit has absolutely been looking forward to this game to try to show they can stop the Michigan offensive attack. Michigan's offense is playing much slower this year. They have a new offensive coordinator, and Michigan now ranks 109th in tempo in the country. The Wolverines haven't even played a team with a top 50 defense so far this year. They'll be tested in a big way here. The Iowa offense is one of the worst in the country. They are 128th out of 131 in yards per play. Iowa has a terrible offensive line that is awful in pass protection and weak in run blocking. Spencer Petras is a bad quarterback, and I think Iowa will do their best to try to run the ball a lot here. The Michigan defense played pretty well against a really good Maryland offense. The Terrapins had only 5.4 ypp on offense in that one. Michigan's defense is a top 6 or 8 defense in the country. PFF grades these two defenses as the #1 and #6 teams in the country in terms of tackling. They also grade them as the #1 and #2 overall defenses in the country. The total is low, but it is low for a reason. The pace will be very slow and I don't expect many big plays here. Take the under.
10-01-22	Georgia State v. Army OVER 53		31-14	Loss	-110	92 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Georgia State Panthers rank top ten in the country in pace. They will push the tempo every time that they have the ball. Georgia State wants to run the football as much as they can, which is actually good in this case. Army ranks 129th in rushing play success rate allowed. This is a much weaker Army run defense than they have had in recent seasons. The Panthers should be able to have some success here. Army's rushing attack is tremendous. Army is actually successfully mixing in a few more passing plays than they have in most recent seasons as well. This offense is first in the nation in explosiveness so far this year. They have a whopping 12 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Georgia State's defense isn't very good. They have already allowed 74 plays of 10 yards or more this year. Army should break quite a few big gainers in this one. Army is better offensively and worse defensively than they were a year ago. Georgia State is playing even faster than they did last season. Take the over.
10-01-22	Illinois v. Wisconsin UNDER 44.5		34-10	Win	100	59 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Wisconsin Badgers defense looked bad last weekend against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes were firing on all cylinders and they are going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Wisconsin is still a well coached defense by Jim Leonhard and they should be well prepared for this game. Illinois is going to want to run the ball and get it to Chase Brown even in the short passing game. Brown is a good back, and they should get yardage here, but I expect it to be in slow long drives rather than explosive plays. Wisconsin has been a good red zone defense for many years now, and I think they can force Illinois to kick field goals. Wisconsin's offense is all about the running game. They are running on 65% of their plays on offense. The Illinois defense has been fantastic so far this year. Illinois is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. They just shutout a Chattanooga (FCS) team that is actually pretty good. Chattanooga nearly beat Kentucky last year. Illinois also held Virginia to 3 points earlier this year. Wisconsin plays at a bottom ten pace in the country, and Illinois should be more than happy to run and try to use up the time as well. This game will have a running clock for much of the time. Illinois has scored a grand total of 7 points on Wisconsin the last two times they have played them. The Illinois defense has gotten a lot better under Ryan Walters too. Take the under.
09-24-22	Western Michigan v. San Jose State UNDER 51.5		6-34	Win	100	127 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Jose State Spartans have a tremendous defensive line. They are great run stuffers. That is really important in a game like this because Western Michigan really wants to run the football as much as possible. Western Michigan's quarterback play has been brutal. They badly miss Eleby and the star receivers they have lost in recent seasons. I don't trust Western Michigan to be able to take advantage of San Jose State's relative weakness in the secondary. San Jose State's offensive line really holds back their offense. The Spartans rank 127th out of 131 teams in the country in offensive line yards so far this year. They are also 100th in explosiveness, so they aren't getting many big plays. Two teams who have weak offensive lines and struggle in 3rd and short situations here. I think this is a game where even when they get into the red zones, it could be field goals instead of touchdowns several times. Take the under.
09-24-22	Arkansas State v. Old Dominion OVER 56.5		26-29	Loss	-110	29 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas State Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the country. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 14 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. They rank 128th out of 131 in explosiveness allowed this season. Old Dominion's offensive numbers don't look very good this year, but they have played a good slate of defenses. Virginia is a much improved defense. Virginia Tech is a good defense. East Carolina is a pretty solid defense as well. Arkansas State will easily be the worst defense they have faced. Old Dominion plays at the 23rd fastest tempo of any team in the country. The Monarchs should get more scoring chances here. Arkansas State is a pretty good offense led by former Florida State quarterback James Blackmon. The Red Wolves are capable of putting up a big number on offense as well, and they showed that last week against Memphis. Old Dominion's defense is a below average defense. Arkansas State's offensive line has struggled in pass protection, but ODU doesn't have a good pass rush. The weather looks very nice for this game. I think this one is a few points too low. Take the over.
09-24-22	Tulsa v. Ole Miss UNDER 66		27-35	Win	100	76 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as an over team because of their pace, but the under is actually 9-1 in their last 10 games. Ole Miss runs the football a lot which keeps the clock moving. They have run the ball on 64.1% of their snaps so far this season. Ole Miss is also much better on defense than they were in the past. In fact, this year's defense looks to be the best Ole Miss defense in quite a few years. The Rebels haven't played good offenses, but it is still really impressive for them to rank 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They shut out Georgia Tech last weekend. Tulsa's biggest weakness is their offensive line. The Golden Hurricanes have already allowed 10 sacks this year. Ole Miss is going to be in the backfield here. The Rebels have gotten 13 sacks already this year. The tempo played here will be quick, but I expect Ole Miss to have the lead and look to be running the clock in the fourth quarter. This is a very high number. Take the under.
09-24-22	North Texas v. Memphis OVER 68		34-44	Win	100	134 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Both of these are teams I'm looking to bet overs with throughout the season when given the opportunity. I like the matchup here. Memphis has an explosive offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan is an underrated passer who can make something out of nothing at times. The Tigers have enough weapons around him to be very dangerous. The Memphis defense is weak, especially against the run. North Texas has a strong offensive line. The Mean Green offense has worked nicely all year. Their only issue has been turnovers in key spots that stall out drives. North Texas has 399 yards or more of total offense in every game this year. Memphis has seen the total get to 72 and 76 points in two of their games already this year. North Texas has seen two of their games get to a total of 85 points. Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. Both teams rank in the top five in the country in offensive plays of 30 yards or more. Take the over.
09-24-22	Indiana v. Cincinnati OVER 54		24-45	Win	100	119 h 24 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Indiana Hoosiers rank first in the nation in tempo. Indiana is getting a bunch of quick snaps off. The Hoosiers aren't that efficient as an offense, but they do have 10 plays of 30 yards or longer already this season. Indiana has also been terrible in the red zone so far this year. The Hoosiers have only scored on 10 of 14 trips into the red zone. They have a touchdown on only 6 trips out of 14 in the red zone. Those are among the worst in the country. That is something that should regress in a positive way a bit through the year. Cincinnati's offense has impressed me this year. They are averaging 7.24 yards per play on the season. The Bearcats already have 11 plays of 30 yards or more. Cincinnati ranks 20th in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Indiana's defense is particularly weak against the pass (106th in passing play success rate allowed) and Cincinnati's passing game has been good this season. The Bearcats have sped up their pace of play as well, ranking 46th out of 131 in terms of tempo. Take the over.
09-17-22	UTEP v. New Mexico UNDER 41		10-27	Win	100	127 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Rocky Long's defense at New Mexico is a tough one. Rocky Long is one of the best defensive minds in the country. Many coaches have tried to copy his 3-3-5 defense because of how innovative it has been. New Mexico is a tough nosed defense that will make you fight for yards. They don't usually give up big plays either. New Mexico's offense is awful. The Lobos play at an extremely slow pace and they are very run heavy. So far this year, 65% of their offensive snaps have been running plays. The Lobos should end the season as a bottom ten offense in terms of efficiency, and they'll be bottom 20 in terms of tempo as well. UTEP has a pretty weak secondary, but they are very good against the run. New Mexico isn't the type of team that will take advantage of the UTEP secondary. Look for UTEP to stuff the run here. UTEP won 20-13 when these two played last year. UTEP lost their two star receivers Cowing and Garrett and they are clearly worse on offense this season. Take the under.
09-17-22	Arkansas State v. Memphis OVER 62		32-44	Win	100	135 h 60 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arkansas State Red Wolves had major problems with giving up big plays last year. They are back at it again this year. Arkansas State has allowed six plays of 40 yards or more on the season. They have serious problems in the secondary. Memphis is a team that should be able to once again take advantage of those issues. Memphis put up 55 points in Jonesboro last season. The Tigers rolled up 680 yards of total offense. Memphis had 417 passing yards. Seth Henigan is back, and he's an above average quarterback who isn't afraid to take shots down the field. Memphis was very good on offense last week against Navy, and I think they'll look really good again here. Arkansas State put up 50 points in their loss to Memphis last year. I don't think they'll score that many here, but the Red Wolves should be able to move the ball too and score enough. James Blackmon is capable of some explosive plays of his own, and I don't rate this Memphis defense very highly. Take the over here.
09-17-22	Kansas v. Houston OVER 58		48-30	Win	100	22 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Cougars offense has been a big disappointment so far this season. With Dana Holgorsen being such a good offensive mind, I find it hard to believe they won't improve through the season. Clayton Tune is a good quarterback, and he has an elite receiver in Tank Dell. Jalen Daniels and this Kansas offense look tremendous. They have some real talent in the backfield, and Daniels has been underrated for too long now. This Houston defense is still pretty good, but they aren't the dominant force they were a year ago. The Kansas defense is a major weakness still. West Virginia put up 42 points in regulation against them last week. Look for both teams to do quite a bit of scoring here. Take the over.
09-17-22	Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64		42-0	Win	100	62 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Ole Miss has been a good under team of late. Why? The Rebels have been running the ball a lot more than most people realize. Lane Kiffin's team does play quickly, but there is a lot of running clock because they are running the football on nearly 60% of their offensive plays the last couple seasons. With a total of 60 or higher, the under is a perfect 7-0 in Ole Miss' last 7 contests. Ole Miss has allowed only 13 points in their first two games. They haven't played great offenses, but the Georgia Tech offense isn't good either. Ole Miss picked up a lot of new transfers on defense, and so far they have been working out. Georgia Tech has been pretty good against the run so far this year. Ole Miss will get their yards on their ground here, but the Yellow Jackets have at least improved a bit on the run defense. The Yellow Jackets offense is very short on playmakers. Sims will likely be under a lot of pressure from the Ole Miss defense that will likely blitz quite a bit in this one. Take the under here.
09-17-22	Tulane v. Kansas State UNDER 49		17-10	Win	100	21 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kansas State talked about possibly playing faster this year, but the Wildcats rank 121st out of 131 in tempo so far this year. Tulane also ranks as slower than the average team. Both of these teams like to run the football as much as possible and mix in a deep pass here and there. Those plays can be explosive at times. I think the weather forecast here matters quite a bit. There are going to be showers and thunderstorms off and on. More importantly, winds of 17 mph with gusts to 32 mph are in the forecast. This kind of weather should lead to both teams being more conservative. Those explosive plays should be harder to come by. Take the under here.
09-17-22	Old Dominion v. Virginia UNDER 54.5		14-16	Win	100	109 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Virginia Cavaliers hired an offensive coordinator who has decided to change the way they play. Virginia continually tried to run the football last week despite being down big against Illinois. The Cavaliers are no longer the fun uptempo offense that just airs it out with Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong is a good quarterback, but there are a couple key problems for the Virginia passing game. First, Virginia's offensive line is one of the three or four worst in the country. Second, they lack playmakers on the outside in a big way. Old Dominion ranks 131st in offensive success rate. The Monarchs are a scrappy team, but they aren't efficient at all on offense. Virginia's defense has actually improved under their new defensive coordinator this year. Their biggest improvement has been not allowing big plays on offense. I see this as a game where both offensive coaches keep it more conservative than many would think. Take the under.
09-10-22	Baylor v. BYU OVER 53		20-26	Loss	-110	68 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Baylor Bears defeated the BYU Cougars 38-24 last season. Baylor rolled up 534 yards of total offense in that one. BYU put up 409 yards of offense. BYU actually had 7.4 yards per play to 7.1 yards per play for Baylor. The offenses had a big advantage in that game a season ago. BYU returned all their starters from a year ago on defense. They weren't very good on defense though. I think they will improve some, but I don't think BYU's defense is their strong suit. The Cougars are excellent on the offensive line, and they have an underrated quarterback in Hall. BYU also has two strong receivers on the outside. Baylor's defense is very strong on the defensive line, but the Baylor linebackers and secondary are clearly down from a year ago. I think BYU can hit some big plays on this Baylor defense. Baylor's offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has done a tremendous job putting his quarterbacks in a situation to succeed. Baylor's Blake Shapen is protected by an elite offensive line, and against an average BYU defense I think they can put up points as well. Take the over in this one.
09-10-22	New Mexico State v. UTEP UNDER 47.5		13-20	Win	100	29 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Mexico State Aggies have a terrible offense. They put up just 91 yards of total offense against Minnesota last week. Yes Minnesota is a good defense, but that is still a terrible showing. Jerry Kill's New Mexico State team wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football a lot. That plays into the strength of the UTEP defense. The UTEP Miners defense is susceptible against great passing attacks, but their defensive front is excellent against the run. I think New Mexico State will have a hard time moving the ball here. UTEP just gave up a bunch of points against Oklahoma. Oklahoma plays extremely fast, and to say New Mexico State is a huge step down from Oklahoma is a massive understatement. UTEP wants to play slowly as well, and they should get their wish here. I expect them to play from the lead and look to establish the run as much as they can. This total has bumped up enough where I want to go with the under in this one. Take the under.
09-10-22	Boston College v. Virginia Tech UNDER 46		10-27	Win	100	51 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Virginia Tech Hokies are a team I have pegged as a team to look to bet unders with. Brent Pry is a good defensive mind, and the Hokies have a strong secondary as they generally do. The linebacker unit is a major strength as well. Virginia Tech's offense is limited. The offensive line is one of the worst in the conference, and there aren't good options at wide receiver. Grant Wells hasn't consistently proven he can be that guy at quarterback. The Hokies will likely play at a slightly slower than average pace. Boston College lost 4 guys from their offensive line from last season. The Eagles offensive line struggled badly in their season opener against Rutgers. Rutgers doesn't have a very good defensive front either. While Jurkovic is definitely a good quarterback, he'll be in a tough spot here. It will be a weak offensive line in front of him and a strong VA Tech secondary against him. This projects as a game where both offenses struggle to put positive plays together consistently. I would expect them to settle for field goals several times as well. Take the under.
09-10-22	Georgia Southern v. Nebraska OVER 59		45-42	Win	100	125 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Nebraska Cornhuskers play at an extremely quick pace. Nebraska ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Casey Thompson has been a good fit at quarterback for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska already has 34 plays of 10 yards or more in two games. They now face a very weak Georgia Southern defense that is unlikely to be able to slow them down. Georgia Southern has decided to run the spread and play very fast under Clay Helton this year. Georgia Southern played very fast last week even into the fourth quarter when they had a big lead against an FCS team. The Nebraska defense has been really weak so far this year. Nebraska ranks 68th in the country in yards per play allowed despite playing North Dakota and Northwestern (not a good offense). The pure pace of this game makes me think both teams will have a lot of chances for points. Take the over.
09-10-22	Florida International v. Texas State OVER 55		12-41	Loss	-110	138 h 26 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The FIU Panthers won 38-37 over FCS Bryant in their first game. FIU was extremely fortunate to win that game. Bryant put up 6.0 yards per play in that game. It's important to note that it isn't like Bryant is some really good FCS program either. They lost 35-14 last year at Akron and only had 146 yards of total offense in that game. FIU has some major problems on their defenses. Bryant had a whopping 8 plays of 20 yards or more in that season opener against FIU. FIU's offense played at an ultra fast pace in their season opener. They were snapping it on average at between 18 and 19 seconds between plays. That would have been the fastest in the country last year. Texas State wants to play really fast under Jake Spavital as well. They finally have a good quarterback to work with in Layne Hatcher. Texas State's offensive line had trouble against Nevada's solid defensive front, but I would expect Hatcher to have a lot more time to throw it in this game. The Texas State defense has been a major problem for years now and I expect the same again this season. A lot of pace for a total set this low. Take the over.
09-10-22	South Alabama v. Central Michigan UNDER 59		38-24	Loss	-110	21 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under South Alabama is a good defensive team under Kane Wommack. Wommack did a great job with the Indiana defense, and they have dropped off badly since her left. He's doing a really good job with this South Alabama defense as well. Central Michigan just had an extremely high scoring game against Oklahoma State, and that certainly gives me some pause, but Oklahoma State played at a lightning fast tempo in that one. Central Michigan also put up most of their offense after Oklahoma State had built a massive lead and had backups in on defense. I expect this game to play out differently. Look for Central Michigan to try to run the football with star running back Lew Nichols. I think they'll have some success, but South Alabama was good at preventing big plays last year. South Alabama's offensive line is a question mark, and the Central Michigan defensive front is the strength of their defense. Take the under.
09-10-22	UTSA v. Army OVER 53.5		41-38	Win	100	131 h 18 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Army games can either be extremely low or very high scoring. Why the big differences? When they face triple option attacks, this Army defense is excellent. They know their assignments extremely well and will consistently shut down those triple option teams. On the other hand, when Army takes on teams with unique offensive attacks that can beat them through the air they can really struggle. Coastal Carolina put up 38 points on Army last week, and that was a Coastal team that brought back Grayson McCall and virtually nothing else on offense. Army did put up 7.3 yards per play on offense, and the Black Knights are likely to have success on the ground here against an UTSA team that lost a lot on the defensive end from a year ago. UTSA has a great aerial attack led by Frank Harris and a trio of talented receivers. UTSA is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Houston. The Houston defense is much more talented than Army's defense, and UTSA should find a lot more receivers running open in this one. The defenses in this one are facing two offenses they are not at all accustomed to facing. Take the over.
09-10-22	Wake Forest v. Vanderbilt OVER 60.5		45-25	Win	100	117 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will continue to play fast on offense, even without Sam Hartman at quarterback. Wake Forest put up 44 points and averaged 6.8 yards per play against VMI in week one. They now take on a Vanderbilt defense that just gave up 31 points and 6.5 yards per play against lowly Elon last week. I think the Demon Deacons will get their points here with their playmakers at the skill positions. Vanderbilt's offense looks much better with Mike Wright running the show this year. Vanderbilt has 14 plays of 20 yards or more in two games, so there is some real explosiveness to the offense. Wright can make things happen with his legs and that really makes a big difference. Both offenses should have success in both the ground game and through the air. Neither of these defenses have been good at pressuring the opposing quarterback. Take the over here.
09-03-22	Boise State v. Oregon State UNDER 57.5		17-34	Win	100	56 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Boise State Broncos return 20 of their top 22 tacklers from last year. Andy Avalos is a defensive minded head coach, and I expect this Boise State defense to be very good. Their defensive line is tremendous and their secondary is full of big hitters who have NFL potential. Boise State's offense is weak on the offensive line. They averaged just 3.14 yards per carry a year ago. The offensive line is once again the biggest question mark this year. They also lost their star receiver (Shakur) from last year. They lack big play weapons around Hank Bachmeier. Oregon State is a well coached offense and they are typically efficient on that side of the ball. I do think the Boise State defense is one of the best they'll see this year. Oregon State prefers to play at a slow pace, and they run the football a lot. That should make their drives take quite a bit of time throughout this contest. This is a fairly high total for a game with an excellent defense like Boise State. Totals of 56 or higher in game one are 57.1% to the under since 2006. Take the under in this one.
09-03-22	Miami-OH v. Kentucky OVER 51.5		13-37	Loss	-110	220 h 14 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have a very good QB in Brett Gabbert. Miami has a good offensive line that gives Gabbert great pass protection most of the time. The Kentucky defense is easily weakest in the secondary. Kentucky will be exposed by good passing attacks this season. Their pass rush is also much weaker than it was a few years ago. Miami should be able to move the ball some here. Kentucky's offense is very good with Levis leading the way at QB and Rodriguez and a host of really talented RB's in the backfield. The Miami Ohio defense lost a star in Ivan Pace who transferred to Cincinnati. The glaring weakness of the Miami defense is their secondary. Kentucky's Will Levis is better than the quarterbacks Miami is accustomed to facing in MAC play, and I think Kentucky can move the ball in big chunks during this game. Two passing attacks who should have a big edge and a total that is set pretty low at 51.5. Neither pass rush is very good, so I think the quality quarterbacks will be given time to set their feet and throw a quality ball consistently. I look for both offenses to be pretty efficient in this one. Take the over.
09-03-22	Oregon v. Georgia UNDER 52		3-49	Push	0	217 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks defense actually disappointed much of last year, and even though they lose Thibodeaux I think this Oregon defense will be better. Dan Lanning is a tremendous defensive mind, and there is a lot of talent on this Oregon defense. The linebackers are superb led by Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe. The Georgia offense lost a lot. They lost their two star running backs. They went from a top 2 or 3 RB unit in the country to top 20 or so. That's a big dip. Stetson Bennett is a pretty good QB, but he isn't a star and he also lost Pickens and Burton on the outside. Georgia should be content to play very slowly again this year, and I don't think they'll be terribly efficient here. The Oregon offense will be led by Bo Nix. Nix is capable of big things occasionally, but he isn't consistent enough The Georgia secondary led by Ringo is amazing, and I would be surprised if Oregon moves it much through the air. Oregon lost their two star RB's from a year ago as well (Dye and Verdell). They are running a completely new offense. While the Georgia defense is down compared to a year ago, they are still an absolutely elite unit. They should be able to get into the Oregon backfield a lot in this one. Lanning knows the Georgia offense well and that doesn't hurt either. Take the under here.
09-01-22	Louisiana Tech v. Missouri OVER 58.5		24-52	Win	100	90 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Sonny Cumbie is the new head coach at Louisiana Tech. Cumbie has a history of playing very quickly, and he has said to whoever will listen that this LA Tech team will play much faster than they did a year ago. Skip Holtz's LA Tech teams have been pretty conservative offensively in recent seasons. While the running game doesn't look very good, they do have solid pieces at QB and at WR and TE. LA Tech is very weak defensively. The linebackers and the secondary are especially weak spots. I would expect the move to a quicker pace on offense to hurt this fairly thin defense if anything. Missouri will start Brady Cook at quarterback this year. Cook has some serious talent at wide receiver. Mookie Cooper and Luther Burden should be a tremendous duo on the outside. They should be able to burn the Tech secondary pretty often in this game. The offensive line is a pretty experienced solid group as well. The Missouri defense is a weak unit overall. The secondary has major questions all over the place. They allowed far too many big plays a year ago. Tech will be playing extremely fast and getting some chances through the air. Missouri's offense should be very efficient here, and I expect LA Tech to be playing quick enough to get enough points for this one to get past the posted total. Take the over.
08-27-22	Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 52.5		23-12	Win	100	201 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Two programs with new coaches and completely different schemes square off in this "Week 0" contest. Nevada had the second most roster turnover in the country. The Wolf Pack were excellent last year, but about everyone is gone from that team- both the players and coaches. Ken Wilson brings in an offense that will be far more about the running game than the passing game. I expect a slower pace for the Wolf Pack as well. Nevada has a couple quality running backs, but the offensive line is a huge weakness. I would expect Nevada to try to play some lower scoring games this year to make the transition a bit easier. New Mexico State is now coached by Jerry Kill. The Aggies have a really weak QB room. They will be forced to run the football early and often. Kill has made it clear that this offense will slow down and try to grind away games. I would expect this team to be bottom ten in the country in tempo at a neutral game state. While the defense isn't going to be good, I would expect the biggest improvement here to come in the front seven with the run defense. New Mexico State has improved depth here and Jerry Kill has some good defensive minds on this staff. This game should be an ugly one. There is certainly some risk that the defenses are bad enough that the offenses get a little too much scoring going. At the same time, the offenses want to play very slowly and bleed the clock. A ton of question marks here and I'm going to go with this being a sloppy first game. Take the under.
12-31-21	Cincinnati v. Alabama UNDER 58.5		6-27	Win	100	181 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Bearcats defense is legitimately elite. Cincinnati has 4 or 5 NFL plays on their defense. The secondary is arguably the best in the country. John Metchie being out hurts Alabama's passing attack a lot. Bryce Young is great and he'll have some success here regardless, but they will have to rely very heavily on Jameson Williams. Expect Cincinnati's secondary to have more success slowing down Alabama than did Georgia. The Cincinnati Bearcats have been run heavy of late. They'd like to do the same in this game, but I think it will be tough. Alabama can be beaten through the air sometimes, but their run defense is tremendous. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 2.51 ypc and PFF ranks them as the #1 run defense in the country. Is Desmond Ridder good enough to air it out and consistently burn Alabama? I don't think it is terribly likely. The guys who have burned this Alabama defense in the past (Watson and Joe Burrow for example) are several levels better than Ridder. Cincinnati has to want a low scoring battle here and they should play at a slow tempo. Alabama has played very slowly with a lead all year and they are a big favorite. Take the under.
12-30-21	Pittsburgh v. Michigan State UNDER 58		21-31	Win	100	328 h 11 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Pitt Panthers will be without star quarterback Kenny Pickett here. Pickett opted out of this game and will get ready for the NFL Draft. The Panthers will also be without offensive coordinator Mark Whipple who resigned to go to Nebraska to be the OC. Whipple did a great job with this offense and I consider this a big loss. Pickett is clearly a massive loss and the drop in production to Nick Patti is massive at the quarterback spot. Kenneth Walker III will sit out this game for Michigan State. The Spartans don't really have another game breaking player on their offense, and this is a huge hit. Thorne has been decent in the passing game, but Pitt has an elite defensive line who will pressure him early and often here. Michigan State would prefer to run, but Pitt has a top 10 run defense in the country and Michigan State is without their star running back. Both of these offenses had actually been much weaker in their last couple games anyways, and now they are without their stars. Take the under. Note- this has moved down a bit since I selected it. I would still play this for a 4 star rating down to 55.5 and a 3 star rating down to 54. Thank you and good luck.
12-28-21	West Virginia v. Minnesota UNDER 45		6-18	Win	100	31 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 130th in the country in tempo. No one in the country plays as slow as Minnesota. Minnesota is going to run the football and try to very slowly move the ball down the field. The Golden Gophers run on 69.5% of their offensive plays. This is a conservative offense. Minnesota is up against a West Virginia defense that is much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Mountaineers are a solid 48th in rushing play success rate allowed. The Minnesota defense is 4th in the nation in total yards per game allowed. Minnesota ranks 18th in success rate allowed defensively. The Golden Gophers are solid on all levels on defense. They don't give up big plays either. They have only allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more all year (3rd best in the country). West Virginia star running back Leddie Brown will not play in this game. This puts more pressure on a relatively weak offensive line and a quarterback in Jarrett Doege who has been subpar. A lot of running the football and very few big plays here. West Virginia is 93rd in pace as well, so a slow tempo from both teams. Take the under.
12-18-21	Eastern Michigan v. Liberty UNDER 58.5		20-56	Loss	-110	21 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Eastern Michigan Eagles are very reliant on the passing attack. Eastern Michigan is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry (108th out of 130 teams in the country). The Eagles rely on Ben Bryant to complete a bunch of quick passes and do damage through the air. Liberty's strength on defense is their pass defense and their pass rush. Eastern Michigan has given up 38 sacks (Liberty has 33 sacks too). Liberty ranks 17th in passing play success rate allowed. Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they do rank 9th in explosive plays allowed. They don't give up many big plays. That will help against Liberty's explosive offense. Liberty has allowed 50 sacks this year, and the Eagles should get to Willis some of the time. Eastern Michigan has done a good job slowing teams down once they get into the red zone as well. There is rain in the forecast for this one and that could keep things a little more conservative. I think Liberty will do a good job slowing down Eastern Michigan's passing attack especially with help from the weather. The pace of the game should be fairly slow. Take the under here.
12-04-21	Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh OVER 71		21-45	Loss	-110	30 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Pitt Panthers offense has been fantastic all year. They rank 19th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt has been led by star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett ranks 2nd in PFF passing grade in the country this year. He should be able to rip apart this Wake Forest defense. Wake Forest is 105th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. How has the Wake Forest defense fared against the top offenses they have played this year? They allowed 34 points against Louisville. They allowed 55 points against N Carolina. They allowed 48 points against a bad Clemson offense. They gave up 56 points to Army. They allowed 42 against NC State. Pitt ranks as the second best offense they have faced this year. Wake Forest ranks 4th in tempo in the country. Sam Hartman has had a special year as well. The Demon Deacons should be able to score quite a few on a Pitt defense that isn't nearly as good as they have been in past seasons. Pitt is 78th in opponent QBR and 58th in passing play success rate allowed. Wake Forest has a whopping 39 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. Two explosive offenses in what should be an exciting back and forth game. Overtime is a possibility in a game that should be tight as well. Take the over.
12-04-21	Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 53		16-24	Win	100	25 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday afternoon. The first game between these two got to 54 points, but that was largely because of App State turnovers leading to short fields and quick scores. These are two good under teams on the season. The under is 7-5 in App State's games. The under is 9-3 in Louisiana's games. Levi Lewis has struggled at QB for Louisiana this year. The App State defense has really been strong at the end of the season. I expect Louisiana to have a conservative game plan and run the football quite a bit here. App State allowed 7.8 points per game in their last four games overall. Both teams have slowed their tempo down in recent games. I don't see a lot of possessions in this contest. The two teams run the ball on 60% and 61% of their offensive plays. A lot of moving clock in this one. Take the under.
11-27-21	Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 45		14-47	Loss	-110	41 h 5 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Northwestern Wildcats have a terrible offense this year. Northwestern ranks 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Wildcats have been able to break a long play here and there, but that should be very difficult to do against an Illinois defense that has been great at preventing big plays. Illinois is 3rd in the nation in defensive explosiveness allowed. They have a great safety in Kerby Joseph, and Walters has been a great defensive coordinator for the Fighting Illini. Illinois is very run heavy on offense. Northwestern will give up yards here, but they have been preventing big plays as well. The Wildcats rank 14th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Illinois has slowed their tempo down as the year has gone on. A crazy 7 of the last 8 games for Illinois have stayed at or below 38 points. Last week, their game went over the total, but Iowa only put up 3.6 ypp and neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. Northwestern has scored 14 points or less in all but two of their Big Ten games. In both of the other two they only scored 21 points. Illinois should control the tempo and run the ball a lot here to keep the clock moving. Take the under.
11-27-21	Houston v. Connecticut UNDER 55		45-17	Loss	-110	19 h 53 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Houston Cougars have a spot in the AAC Title game against Cincinnati. That game is next week and that is the big one for Houston. I wouldn't expect Houston to try to run up the score here, because it really doesn't matter to them. They just want to get a win and get out of here. UConn is admittedly very bad on defense. They are even worse on offense though. The Houston defense ranks 6th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Cougars have been dominant on the defensive side of the football. The weather here should play a role as well. Winds of about 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are expected during this contest. That should make both teams more conservative. Take the under.
11-27-21	Wake Forest v. Boston College UNDER 65		41-10	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing for a spot in the ACC Title game. Wake Forest will have a pretty tough challenge against a Boston College team that has played much better with a healthy Phil Jurkovec. Wake Forest is a very fast paced team. They rank 4th in the nation in tempo. Wake Forest does rely on the passing game heavily. Sam Hartman has been very good this year. He is going up against a Boston College secondary that has been excellent this year though. Boston College ranks 14th in coverage grade at PFF. They have shut down some solid passing attacks this year. Boston College lacks a dynamic running game. That is important because Wake Forest has been terrible against the run this season. The Eagles should be able to move the ball here, but they aren't likely to get huge chunk plays as some other teams have been able to. The weather here is important as well. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during this game. That is the kind of weather that makes a huge difference. There are strong angles for the under in this situation. I don't generally want to bet unders with Wake Forest. In this case with them playing for so much and in extreme wind, I'll do so. Take the under.
11-26-21	UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 50.5		14-48	Loss	-110	36 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under These two teams rank 120th (Air Force) and 122nd (UNLV) in pace of play. The tempo will be very slow here. Air Force runs the ball on 87.4% of their offensive plays. They will be very run heavy again here. UNLV is a bad team, but they have done one thing well this year. UNLV has a good defensive line. They have the 24th ranked run defense in the country according to PFF. UNLV has a top 15 stuff rate in the country. They won't shut down the Air Force triple option, but I think they can do a better job here than most would believe. The UNLV offense is really bad. The Rebels would prefer to run the ball or throw short passes. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, but I don't think UNLV can take advantage of that weakness. Air Force has a great pass rush, and UNLV has allowed 36 sacks already this year. Air Force will be in the backfield here. Air Force has seen 7 of their last 8 games finish regulation with a combined total of 48 points or lower. In fact, 5 of those 8 games finished with a total of 41 points or less. Air Force should have the lead burning up the clock late in this game to salt it away and that is a big positive for the under. Take the under.
11-20-21	Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 50		20-10	Win	100	121 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Baylor ranks 108th in the country in tempo. The Bears have played very slowly all year and I would expect the same here. Kansas State ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats want to control the ball and use up the time. Baylor just played a very low scoring game against Oklahoma which tells you quite a bit about the Bears. Dave Aranda is improving this Baylor defense throughout the course of the season. Kansas State's has drastically improved in recent weeks. The Wildcats have given up just 13.0 points per game in their last three contests (TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia). Baylor runs the ball on 61% of their offensive plays. Kansas State runs the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. There should be a lot of running clock through this game. These are the 2nd and 4th ranked defense in the Big 12. They rank 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Neither passing attack is known for big plays. They do a lot of short passes to keep the defense honest. Take the under here.
11-20-21	Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 38.5		23-33	Loss	-109	117 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini want to run the football early and often. Bret Bielema's team has been running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive plays of late. Iowa allows only 3.00 yards per carry which is 7th best in the country. Illinois has virtually no passing game. Iowa has played two quarterbacks, but neither one of them are very good. The Illinois defense has improved a lot through the season. This group has a better defensive coaching staff this season. This is an extremely low total, but it is very low for good reasons. Illinois has played in 7 straight games that have finished under this low total! Iowa has seen 5 of their 10 games this year stay under this very low total. Both teams play slowly and are conservative on offense. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in preventing big plays. A lot of running clock and the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under.
11-20-21	Florida State v. Boston College OVER 54.5		26-23	Loss	-110	16 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College Eagles have Phil Jurkovec back and it makes a world of a difference for this offense. Boston College looked like an offensive machine last week in their win over Georgia Tech. They put up 41 points on 8.9 yards per play. Jurkovec had an average depth of target of more than 18 yards per pass, so they were really being aggressive and taking shots down the field. Zay Flowers is a mismatch for most teams, and I don't think Florida State has an answer for him. Jordan Travis has been playing well for the Florida State offense. Travis is a good runner, but he has really matured as a passer as well. Travis led Florida State to 424 yards and 31 points last week in a win over Miami. He has been making good decisions with the ball. Boston College's offensive numbers for the year are misleading since Jurkovec was out for much of the season. This is a completely different offense with him on the field. This should be a back and forth game and overtime is even a possibility with a spread of less than a field goal here. Take the over.
11-17-21	Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 61.5		37-17	Win	100	40 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ball State Cardinals host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night in the MAC. Both of these teams have at least a shot at the MAC West still (Central Michigan has the better chance). Ball State has a pretty good defense at least by MAC standards. Central Michigan is a good run defense and a poor pass defense. Ball State doesn't allow big plays which is crucial for an under. Ball State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Central Michigan has relied heavily on big plays this year, and Ball State should be able to slow those down better than most MAC teams. Both teams probably will need to rely on the run more than normal in this game. The weather forecast for Muncie on Wednesday night calls for winds of 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph and rain throughout this game. Both defenses are clearly better against the run than the pass, so their weaknesses might not be exposed as much as normal here thanks to the bad weather. Take the under. This line is moving down as the weather forecast is being seen by more of the market. I would bet this game down to 58. Thanks and good luck.
11-13-21	Arkansas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 66.5		27-24	Loss	-109	22 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UL Monroe Warhawks host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Sun Belt action here. This is far from a "good" matchup, but I see value on this one. Arkansas State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo. UL Monroe ranks 29th in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 130th in yards per play allowed (out of 130 teams). UL Monroe ranks 113th out of 130 in yards per play allowed. Arkansas State throws the ball on 60% of their offensive plays. UL Monroe ranks 117th in opponent QBR. The Red Wolves should bust some big plays here. Arkansas State's defense is the worst in the country, and it isn't close. Arkansas State has allowed a ridiculous 13 plays of 60 yards or more this season! Only one other team in the country has allowed more than 7. In fact, 15 teams have allowed zero. Arkansas State is ultra vulnerable against a fast paced offense that has home run possibilities. Both offenses rank in the top half of the country in explosiveness. Good weather is in the forecast for this one. A fast pace with two weak defenses and very little to play for is usually a good thing for a high scoring contest. Take the over here.
11-13-21	South Alabama v. Appalachian State UNDER 52.5		7-31	Win	100	46 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Appalachian State Mountaineers host the South Alabama Jaguars here. South Alabama is expected to be without Jake Bentley at quarterback. Former starter Desmond Trotter will step in and be under center here. The Jaguars haven't been able to run the ball on hardly anyone this year, and I wouldn't expect them to be able to run on Appalachian State here. South Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC. Their offensive line allows the opponent in the backfield too often. The Appalachian State offense likes to run the football. The Mountaineers run the ball on nearly 58% of their offensive plays. South Alabama is 19th in the nation in YPC allowed. Chase Brice has been pretty good for Appalachian State this year, but I think this is a game where Appalachian State will be happy to salt this game away with the run game. The weather here is part of the reason I like the under. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 28 mph are in the forecast. That is certainly enough to change the way the game is played. A more conservative game script likely means more running clock and less chances for big plays. Take the under here.
11-06-21	Houston v. South Florida UNDER 55		54-42	Loss	-110	113 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Cougars defense ranks 5th in the country in success rate allowed. They are 13th in YPP allowed and that is despite a high scoring contest against an elite SMU offense this past weekend. Houston won't be up against anything like that here. USF is 99th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Bulls try to run the ball as much as possible, but Houston's strength is their run defense. The Cougars are 4th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at just 2.82. Houston's offense isn't special. Clayton Tune is more of a game manager and this Houston team ranks 105th in the nation in pace of play. The Cougars should be happy to get a lead and run the block and play conservatively. Houston only gave up 355 yards against SMU. The Cougars defense has been dominant much of the year. They should be great again here. Take the under.
11-06-21	Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51		26-16	Win	100	43 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Saturday evening. The weather forecast in Seattle is pretty extreme over the next few days. What's in the forecast? A bunch of rain day after day. It's pretty wet in general in Seattle, but this is extreme weather. For a couple days there will be fairly significant winds as well. One of those days is Saturday. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast for this one. I would expect a more conservative game plan from both teams in this one. What will it mean? Likely a bunch of running the football. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Washington isn't a very good run defense, but they will likely put more people in the box in these conditions. Oregon isn't quite as explosive on the ground without Verdell either. Washington's ground game isn't good. The Huskies rank 100th in ypc on the season. They are up against an Oregon defense that ranks 29th in ypc allowed this year. None of Washington's Pac 12 games have gone over this total in regulation this year. Now we add in some bad weather. Take the under here. Update- This line is moving down as more people are seeing the weather forecast here. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 49 and a 3 star rating down to 47. Thank you.
11-06-21	Clemson v. Louisville UNDER 47		30-24	Loss	-110	24 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under One of Clemson's ACC games has gone over 45 points in regulation. Which one was it? It was last week's contest against Florida State which should have finished with 43 points but for the laterals backward 40 yards and a touchdown at the final whistle for a terrible beat on the under. Louisville plays slowly, but relies on a pretty efficient running game to be successful on the offensive end. While Clemson's offense is a mess, the Tigers still have an elite defense. How good are they? Clemson ranks 7th in YPP allowed this year. They are 9th in the country in success rate allowed. I don't think Louisville will have an easy time navigating things against this Clemson front seven. The Clemson offense has no real identity. The Tigers rank 111th in the nation in yards per play. Louisville's defense has improved in recent weeks and I think the Cardinals can hold Clemson in check as other teams have this season. Take the under.
11-06-21	Marshall v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 57.5		28-13	Win	100	22 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd and Florida Atlantic Owls both play pretty fast so taking an under here doesn't feel great initially, but once you look at the matchup more closely I think there is value. Marshall is all about throwing it around. Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 6th best in the country in opponent QBR. The Owls have an elite secondary. Grant Wells has struggled against the top secondaries he has faced so far this year. Marshall's rushing attack isn't very good. Florida Atlantic's N'Kosi Perry has been terrible when under pressure this year, and Marshall ranks in the top six in the country in pass rush grade. The Thundering Herd should get a lot of heat on Perry here. I see both offenses having some big negative plays and getting behind the sticks. Even if they move the ball down the field, there could be some field goals instead of touchdowns. The defenses have the upper hand. Winds of about 20 mph during this game are definitely a positive for the under as well. Take the under.
11-06-21	Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57		35-10	Win	100	106 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats have played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Their opponent in that game was the Oklahoma Sooners. Kansas State ranks 4th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. They are 30th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They have been pretty good at preventing explosive plays especially in the running game. Kansas' offense isn't good at anything, but they are especially bad if you force them to throw the ball. I expect Kansas State to do precisely that in this contest. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in pace of play. Kansas ranks 121st in the nation in pace of play. It is very rare you'll see a posted total set this high in a game with two teams who play this slowly. Kansas has only allowed 15 plays of 30 yards or more. The Jayhawks will give up yards and points, but it is likely to usually be longer drives from Kansas State that take quite a bit of time. Take the under here.
11-06-21	Illinois v. Minnesota UNDER 44		14-6	Win	100	16 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini have played six straight games that have finished with a total of 38 points or fewer. Illinois has been an under machine. The Fighting Illini defense has improved throughout the season. They have a very good set of safeties to lead the defense. The Illinois offense is still a mess. Peters isn't healthy enough and the offensive line has been disappointing. Minnesota is on their third string running back. They have still been good running the football, and I do think they'll get their rushing yards here. It's key to point out the pace that Minnesota plays at. Minnesota ranks 129th in the tempo in the country. Only one team is using more time between plays than them and that is Army. The Golden Gophers are 14.5 point favorites here. They should have the lead late and that would mean they are using the clock and trying to end the contest. That's a good game script for the under. Take the under here.
10-30-21	Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 44.5		30-20	Win	100	27 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Diego State Aztecs clearly have a good defense. San Diego State has proven they are good against the run. Their pass defense looks very good by the numbers, but they haven't been tested by anyone. Let's look at the offenses they have faced thus far: New Mexico State (Terrible team in general), Arizona (awful passing attack), Utah (before the switch to Cam Rising), Towson (FCS team), New Mexico (Bottom 15 passing attack in country), San Jose State (with a backup quarterback), and Air Force (they just run it all the time). San Diego State has a pretty good pass defense, but I'm not convinced they are as good as the numbers would make you think right now. Fresno State ranks 9th in the nation in passing play success rate. Jake Haener has been tremendous and Jalen Cropper is an elite wide receiver. Fresno State's run defense has been beaten by some teams this year. San Diego State has been running it better in recent weeks. The Aztecs are accustomed to coasting late in the game and using up the clock. I think Fresno State will score enough that San Diego State will have to keep going until the final whistle here. A total of 44.5 is extremely low when one of the teams is as good offensively as Fresno State. Take the over.
10-30-21	Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48.5		10-35	Win	100	37 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a pretty solid unit. Southern Miss ranks 39th in defensive success rate allowed. They have given up quite a few big plays this year, but Alabama skewed those stats some and they obviously don't play any other team that has talent like that. The Golden Eagles are especially strong against the run. Southern Miss is atrocious on offense. The Golden Eagles are 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per play. They are averaging only 4.08 ypp even in CUSA play against really weak defenses. They are putting up a miserable 1.56 ypc in CUSA action. The Golden Eagles have scored 32 points in their last 3 games combined. Middle Tennessee State is 98th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Blue Raiders have some success throwing the football, but their rushing attack has been very weak. MTSU is good in the secondary, but they are weak against the run. Southern Miss hasn't been able to run it against anyone so far this year. Showers are in the forecast for this game (not heavy), but they could change the game some. The winds are expected to be 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph during this one. Take the under.
10-30-21	Indiana v. Maryland UNDER 49.5		35-38	Loss	-110	82 h 10 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Indiana has scored a grand total of 28 points in their four Big Ten contests. It looks like they might be without their top two quarterbacks (Penix and Tuttle) in this one. Against Ohio State, they had to play McCulley and Gremel quite a bit and the offense went nowhere fast. McCulley was 1/6 for 30 yards passing. Gremel was 3/4 for 9 yards passing. Maryland has been far less dynamic in the passing game without Demas on the field. The Terrapins have shown they are willing to slow the game down and run it more when they have a lead. They are favored in this contest. Indiana's running game has been non-existent for the last two years. The Hoosiers offensive front is terrible. Maryland has taken on some good offenses in recent weeks and their defensive stats are a bit skewed. In their current state, Indiana is a terrible offensive team. The Hoosiers are still coached by a good defensive mind and I think their defense can improve the rest of the way. Take the under.
10-30-21	Texas v. Baylor OVER 60.5		24-31	Loss	-105	82 h 9 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Texas Longhorns have picked up their pace. In their last couple games they have been playing about two seconds per play faster than they did earlier in the season. Texas ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play on the season. Thompson has done a good job at quarterback. Bijan Robinson is the star of the team, and he has been doing some major damage. Baylor's Gerry Bohanon has been tremendous at quarterback for the Bears. The Bears offensive line also ranks in the top 5 in the nation at PFF in both pass blocking and run blocking grade. Baylor's offense ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per play. Texas' defense ranks 109th in YPP allowed. Baylor ranks 35th in the nation in yards per play. Both teams have given up a lot of big plays this year. Baylor has already allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Texas has already allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. These offenses should be able to bust big plays here. Baylor's contests against West Virginia and BYU topped this total. Oklahoma State slowed down both of these offenses, but that is the best defense in the Big 12 and neither of these defenses are on that level. I made this total several points higher. Take the over.
10-30-21	Rutgers v. Illinois UNDER 42		20-14	Win	100	16 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini have become a tremendous under team. Illinois is coming off a 9 OT game that finished 20-18. Illinois has played 5 straight games that have finished with 38 points or less. Joseph has been tremendous at safety for Illinois this year, he's rated as the single best safety in the country by PFF so far this year. The Illinois offense is running the football early and often. Look for them to play it very safe here as Peters is back under center and he isn't completely healthy. Rutgers is coming off a game where they put up only 7 points against a bad Northwestern defense. The Scarlet Knights are 119th in the nation in yards per play. Illinois is 118th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams aren't explosive at all on offense. This projects as a grind it out type game where both teams struggle to get big chunk plays. Rutgers has just 7 plays of 30 yards or more all year. Look for field goals instead of touchdowns and a lot of punting the football in this Big Ten battle. Take the under.
10-23-21	Utah v. Oregon State UNDER 57.5		34-42	Loss	-110	23 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes meet in Corvallis on Saturday night. The weather here calls for quite a bit of rain during the day and again later at night in Corvallis. There should be some showers and a bit of a breeze during this game. Oregon State prefers to run the football. The Beavers have a pretty good game manager in Chance Nolan at QB, but the Beavers are all about the run. In fact, in Pac 12 play 71% of their plays have been runs. Utah's defense ranks 1st in Pac 12 play at stopping the run. Utah and Oregon State both rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of not giving up big plays. That's important especially when the weather could play a factor in the game and the total isn't all that low. Utah's Cam Rising has improved the Utes offense, but Utah has been getting off to slow starts each week. Corvallis is no easy place to play and the Utes are in a bit of a tough spot here. Oregon State ranks 100th out of 130 teams in terms of pace of play. Utah has played quite a bit slower in their last couple games as well. The tempo here shouldn't be very fast. Take the under.
10-23-21	Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5		21-24	Win	100	19 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma State Cowboys are unbeaten, but they are a flawed team. The Cowboys offense isn't good at all. Spencer Sanders is a poor passer. Sanders ranks 83rd at PFF in quarterback grade this year. He isn't connecting on any deep plays this year in the passing game. The Oklahoma State offense will have to be able to run here. Can they? Iowa State is 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed this season. The Cyclones should make it hard on the Cowboys to get going here. Iowa State prefers to play at a slow pace. The Cyclones rank 110th in the nation out of 130 teams in terms of tempo. Iowa State's running game hasn't been as good as expected this year. Oklahoma State has what I believe is the best defense in the Big 12 (2nd is probably Iowa State). The Cowboys are tremendous against the run. Oklahoma State should slow down Breece Hall here. Iowa State is favored here and if they are playing from the lead that likely would lead to more conservative play and a slow tempo. Take the under.
10-23-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue UNDER 41		30-13	Loss	-110	18 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a 24-7 win at Iowa. Purdue has made a habit out of having very low scoring games this year. In fact their last four games have finished with a total of: 40 points, 22 points, 33 points, and 31 points. Wisconsin has already played three games this year that finished with a total of 34 points or less. The Badgers defense is elite. They rank 1st in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed on defense. The Badgers have given up some points in games where their defense was excellent (Notre Dame for example) because of turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Boilermakers aren't going to be able to run the ball. Purdue is averaging 2.75 ypc on the year. Wisconsin has good corners and I expect Jim Leonard to have a good plan for defending David Bell. The Purdue defense is underrated. They rank 7th in the nation in success rate allowed. Wisconsin's offense isn't good at all. Graham Mertz has been bad, and the running game isn't up to par either. The Badgers are 101st in the nation in yards per play on offense. Look for a hard fought battle here. Take the under.
10-23-21	Kent State v. Ohio OVER 62.5		34-27	Loss	-110	133 h 14 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Kent State Golden Flashes struggled offensively in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but that was largely because they faced great defenses. Kent State had to go up against Texas A&M and Iowa and even a pretty good Maryland defense. Kent State is now in the MAC where their uptempo offense should be able to pile up points against most of the defenses. Kent State has scored 27, 48, and 31 points in their last three games. The only defense that ranks slightly worse than Ohio that Kent State has played so far this year (of FBS opponents) is Buffalo. That is the game Kent scored 48 points. Ohio has a good running attack. They really aren't good at anything else. Ohio ran for nearly 400 yards on Akron. They ran for 271 yards against Buffalo last week. Kent State has an awful run defense. They are allowing 5.42 yards per carry. The Bobcats should get a big day from their running backs and quarterback Armani Rogers on the ground here. Kent State plays at an ultra fast tempo. The Golden Flashes rank 2nd in the country in tempo. They have played much faster in MAC action than in non-conference action. They are averaging less than 19 seconds between plays. When these two teams last met in 2019 the final was 45-38. Expect another high scoring game. Take the over.
10-16-21	Air Force v. Boise State OVER 51		24-17	Loss	-106	53 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Air Force Falcons defense is improved this year, but I don't think it is as good as it looks on paper. Air Force has played a schedule of very weak offenses, especially in the passing game. Air Force has gone against Lafayette (FCS), Navy, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Only one of those teams has an above average passing attack (Utah State). Utah State won at Air Force 49-45. Boise State doesn't play at the extremely fast pace that Utah State does, but they are 37th out of 130 in pace of play, so the Broncos do play pretty fast. Boise State is much better in the passing game than the running game. Boise State is 39th in the country in passing play success rate. In the last 4 meetings between these two teams Boise State has scored 44. 48, 30, and 49 points by themselves. I don't think they'll put up a huge number here, but I do think they can move the ball through the air and score here. On the other side, Air Force is excellent in the running game. They are averaging 5.13 yards per carry on the season. Boise State is just 91st in the country in yards per carry allowed (4.43). So far this year, Boise State has allowed only 10 touchdowns on 23 trips into the red zone. That will regress to the mean. Boise State's defense can't keep bending without breaking all the time. Air Force has been very efficient in the red zone thanks to their triple option attack. Take the over here.
10-16-21	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5		20-21	Win	100	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The South Carolina Gamecocks play at a very slow pace. South Carolina ranks 109th in pace of play. The Gamecocks are a run first team as well. They have run the ball on more than 55% of their offensive plays this season. Vanderbilt is a weak team overall. The Commodores are even worse offensively than on defense. Vanderbilt ranks 127th in success rate on offense. They usually rely on the pass, but South Carolina's strongest unit is their secondary. It would be a surprise to see Vanderbilt have much success at all on offense in this game. South Carolina is likely to be happy to salt the game away by running the football and using up a lot of clock. There is a bit of wind and a slight chance of showers here that would just be a bonus as well. Take the under.
10-16-21	Purdue v. Iowa UNDER 43		24-7	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks second best in the country in nearly every major category. Only the Georgia Bulldogs defense has been better. Iowa has only allowed 4.02 yards per play on the year despite playing a top 10 strength of schedule so far. The Hawkeyes have been stingy against the run all year and Purdue is averaging 1.92 yards per carry in the Big Ten so far this year. Purdue has to do it through the air and this Hawkeyes defense is elite. I don't think Purdue will get many scoring chances. Iowa's offense hasn't been very good this year. Spencer Petras is inconsistent and the Hawkeyes have relied on short fields for many of their scores. Iowa ranks 121st in yards per play in the country. Purdue ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive success rate. This Boilermakers defense has been very good so far this season. The weather at kickoff time here will be windy with gusts of 20 mph. The winds will slow down through the game, but it should make it harder for the passing games to work. Take the under.
10-16-21	Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5		26-27	Win	100	58 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Buffalo Bulls host the Ohio Bobcats in a MAC contest on Saturday afternoon. The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Buffalo is for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. There are showers expected during this game, especially early in the game. That kind of weather really can change the game. Windy unders have been very good long term especially when there is precipitation involved as well. Both of these teams like to run the football a lot, and in these conditions I would expect the defenses to try to load up the box to stop the run. Neither offense gets big plays all that often, so even if they move the ball down the field it should take quite a bit of time. If the two offenses are as one dimensional as I expect with the conditions like this, it makes the under a much more attractive wager. Take the under here.
10-09-21	Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50		32-29	Loss	-100	23 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under There will be a bunch of running the football in this game. Nebraska is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Michigan is running the ball on 71% of their plays this year. A moving clock is certainly a good thing for the under. Michigan's running attack has been good, but they haven't played many good run defenses. I think Nebraska is underrated in the front seven on defense. The Cornhuskers have been much better than expected this year on defense. Michigan scored just 20 points against Rutgers and they averaged less than 3 yards per carry against Wisconsin a week ago. Nebraska's running attack has been good as well, but Michigan is likely to be in the backfield a lot here. The Cornhuskers offensive line has been overwhelmed by the best defensive lines they have faced this season. Nebraska consistently struggles in the red zone because of questionable play calling and poor decisions from Adrian Martinez. Both teams are good teams, and I expect a hard fought contest here. Look for plenty of field goals instead of touchdowns to help as well. Take the under.
10-09-21	Buffalo v. Kent State OVER 64.5		38-48	Win	100	24 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The final score when these two played last year was Buffalo 70 and Kent State 41. Do I expect something like that again? No. I do think this one has a good chance to go over the total though. Kent State's offensive numbers are skewed down because of the defenses they have played. None of their FBS opponents this year rank lower than 42nd in the country in yards per play allowed. Buffalo ranks 87th so this is a big step down in class. Dustin Crum and the Kent State offense should get going here. Kent State ranks 9th in the country in tempo, and they will playing uptempo the whole way here. Buffalo's pace of play this year has really surprised me. They rank a very fast 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bulls have been more aggressive with their play calling of late. Kent State's defense is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry, and the Golden Flashes rank 130th out of 130 teams in the country in opponent passing play success rate. This Kent State defense is terrible. This number is lower than it should be because of the opponents this offenses have played. Take the over.
10-09-21	Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 60		24-31	Win	100	20 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington State Cougars offense isn't working well. Jayden De Laura looks like he has regressed and the team around him hasn't helped. The offensive line is a problem and the play calling has been questionable. Washington State ranks 104th in offensive explosiveness on the season thus far. Oregon State's offense is good, but they move the ball slowly up the field. Nolan has been great as a game manager for the Beavers. This offensive scheme is very good, but they move slowly and don't try for big plays often. Oregon State ranks 99th in offensive explosiveness. The Washington State defense is coming off back to back strong showings in the last two weeks. Washington State ranks 90th out of 130 in the country in pace of play. Oregon State ranks 104th in pace of play. The weather here looks a bit shaky as well. The wind is forecast to be sustained at about 13 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the game. Take the under.
10-09-21	Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 43		24-0	Win	100	120 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Wisconsin Badgers don't know who will start at quarterback this week. Whether it is Graham Mertz or Chase Wolf though, the passing game is terrible. Wisconsin is completely reliant on the run. Strangely, this Wisconsin offensive line hasn't been good this year. The Badgers are averaging just 3.77 yards per carry which is 88th best in the country. Wisconsin always plays slowly and they are doing that again this year. It would be easy to think Wisconsin's defense isn't very good when you see the scores they allowed they last two weeks. That isn't true at all. The Badgers rank 1st in the country in yards per carry allowed. Overall, Wisconsin ranks 3rd in success rate allowed. This is an excellent defense. Illinois is reliant on running the football too. They don't have enough playmakers to throw it around and their offense is all about the run with Bielema as their coach. Illinois ranks 109th in the nation in yards per play. The Fighting Illini offense is a clear weakness. Illinois has 20-17, 13-9, and 24-14 games in their last three contests. The Charlotte game (24-14) says a lot since Charlotte is a very weak defense. I don't think either of these two will push the pace, and I expect a lot of running and solid defense. Take the under.
10-09-21	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47		34-10	Win	100	48 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Georgia has allowed one offensive touchdown in five games. That is just insane. This Georgia defense is so much better than any other defense in the country right now it is just crazy. They rank 1st in yards per play allowed. They rank 1st in success rate on defense. They rank first at preventing explosive plays. Auburn had a nice win at LSU last week, but LSU's defense is a weakness. Bo Nix and his magic he pulled off in Baton Rouge isn't likely to work against this staunch Georgia defense. The Georgia offense still has some question marks. Both quarterbacks are banged up. Bennett is likely to be the starter here, and the game plan is generally more conservative with him under center. Georgia ranks only 112th in offensive explosiveness. They also rank 117th out of 130 in pace of play. Auburn is allowing just 2.56 yards per carry on the year, and Georgia runs the ball on 62% of their offensive plays. This one should be a hard fought contest. Take the under.
10-02-21	Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48.5		21-28	Win	100	29 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTEP offense is quite a bit better than they were a few years ago. UTEP is averaging 6.11 yards per play (48th best in the nation). The Miners rank 17th best in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett are very good playmakers on the outside. Cowing is averaging a stunning 23.4 yards per reception this year. Old Dominion ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Monarchs aren't a good team. The one thing they have been able to do pretty well this year is run the football. Old Dominion ranks 28th in the nation in rushing success rate. UTEP is a mediocre run defense and the Monarchs should be able to move the ball some on the ground here. It's rare to find a total below the key number of 49 where you have one team playing quickly and the other team being explosive on offense. I don't think this number should be this low. Sure this is a sloppy game between two teams who have been bad in recent years. Still, there are plenty of reasons to think there should be some points here. The weather looks good for this contest as well. Take the over.
10-02-21	Western Kentucky v. Michigan State OVER 59		31-48	Win	100	137 h 23 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are running an air raid with Bailey Zappe and his offensive coordinator from last year at Houston Baptist. How's it looking so far? The early results have been great. The Hilltoppers are third in the nation in yards per play at 8.27. They are 4th in the nation in passing plays success rate at 55.65%. The tempo has been very fast. Western Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. Michigan State's offense is light years better than they were last year. Walker is tremendous at running back. The Spartans are averaging 5.90 yards per carry on the year. That should be a big problem for a Western Kentucky team that is allowing 4.81 yards per carry (106th out of 130 in the country). In fact, Western Kentucky rates 125th out of 130 in the nation in defensive rushing plays success rate. The Spartans passing attack has been solid with Payton Thorne as well. They have picked up the pace significantly this season. The Spartans are 32nd out of 130 teams in the country in tempo. Western Kentucky has thrown the ball on 65.2% of their offensive plays so far this year. They'll air it out and play fast here. Michigan State will gash Western Kentucky on the ground and mix in some successful passing plays as well. The pace here should be very quick all the way. Take the over.
10-02-21	Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 52		7-56	Loss	-110	30 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Northwestern Wildcats have a way of making games ugly and low scoring. Northwestern's defense isn't quite as strong as it has been in most recent seasons, but I do think they will improve in Big Ten play as they usually do under defensive minded Pat Fitzgerald. The Northwestern offense lost their starting running back, and against a good defensive front like Nebraska that should be a problem. Ryan Hilinski played well against Ohio last week, but Ohio is terrible defensively. This is a big step up in class against a Nebraska defense that allowed only 12 first downs last week against a solid Michigan State team. Nebraska is fairly conservative on offense. They will run the football most of the time. I expect them to play from the lead and they have shown to get much more run heavy when playing from the lead. The last couple years these two teams have played games that ended 13-10 and 21-13. Take the under here.
10-02-21	Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50		36-12	Win	100	137 h 53 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Liberty Flames haven't been quite as good offensively this year. The offensive line has been weak in pass blocking. Liberty has already allowed 14 sacks already this year. The Flames have also slowed their pace down drastically. A couple years ago this team was playing very quickly, but they sit 121st in the nation in tempo so far this year. They are running the football on 64% of their offensive snaps. UAB ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers are running the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps. The Blazers are going up against a Liberty defensive front that is 20th in the nation in yards per carry allowed so far this year. The Liberty secondary is a bit weak, but their front seven defensively is very solid. With two teams playing very slowly and running the ball a lot, we should see a lot of running clock in this game. Look for a tight low scoring contest. Take the under.
10-02-21	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64		29-52	Win	100	143 h 45 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Tulane Green Wave have reinvented their offense with a new offensive coordinator. They now play extremely fast. Tulane ranks 8th in the country in tempo so far this year. The Green Wave will push the pace here and try to get as many possessions as possible. East Carolina ranks 119th in yards per play allowed this year. PFF grades them as the 25th worst defense in the country. Tulane should get a lot of big gainers in this one. Tulane's defense is struggling a bit because of their faster paced offense. The Green Wave rank 95th in yards per play allowed and PFF grades them as the 20th worst defense in the country. East Carolina ranks 46th in the nation in tempo so they play fast as well. The Pirates have enough playmakers to get up and down the field against Tulane here. The tempo here should be very fast and we have two bottom 25 defenses in the country. Take the over.
10-02-21	Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 47.5		20-13	Win	100	36 h 50 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Tanner Morgan looks lost at QB. I don’t think PJ Fleck trusts him now and it is hard to blame him. Turnover worthy play on 6 percent of plays so far this year. In Minnesota’s last 3 games, Morgan has 17, 17, and 13 passes attempted. He likely won't throw it many times here. That kind of pace with a ton of running plays is going to bleed a lot of clock. They rank 129th out of 130 teams in tempo in the country, so Minnesota is playing so slowly. Purdue’s offense ranks 87th in yards per play this year. David Bell is a superstar WR for Purdue and he is questionable for this game. Purdue averages just 2.91 ypc and they are shorthanded when it comes to weapons on offense. The Purdue defense has been impressive this year. The Boilermakers are 30th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed on defense. Minnesota isn't likely to be efficient against this group. The Minnesota defense gave up only 1.4 yards per play against Colorado and only 3.1 yards per play against Bowling Green last week. There are winds of 12-15 mph and a slight chance of showers in the forecast. Take the under here.
09-25-21	North Texas v. Louisiana Tech OVER 64.5		17-24	Loss	-110	65 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a mess defensively so far this year, but they are much improved on offense. Austin Kendall is a transfer from Oklahoma and West Virginia and he has fit into the Skip Holtz offense perfectly this year. LA Tech has now played 3 games and the lowest scoring contest was 35-34. LA Tech has picked up their pace this year. They rank 33rd in tempo this season. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, so they are getting a bunch of big gainers. They are up against a defense that has allowed the 7th worst opponent QBR this year so far. The Bulldogs aren't likely to have any trouble moving the ball through the air with Kendall under center here. North Texas always plays very fast. They rank 9th in the nation in tempo so far this season. The Mean Green haven't been able to put up too many points, but they did play a couple pretty good defenses in SMU and UAB. North Texas also has 8 trips into the red zone this year and they only have 2 TD's in those 8 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress over time. A game with a lot of tempo and two defenses rated in the bottom 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. I think there will be quite a bit of scoring here. Take the over.
09-25-21	Kansas State v. Oklahoma State UNDER 48		20-31	Loss	-112	24 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front. Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run. A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring. Take the under.
09-25-21	UCLA v. Stanford OVER 59.5		35-24	Loss	-103	22 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well. Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal. UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary. This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season. Take the over.
09-25-21	Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5		34-41	Win	100	64 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already. The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year. This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005. Take the over here.
09-23-21	Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 55.5		30-31	Win	100	77 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the nation in tempo. Marshall is using only 20.33 seconds between plays. The Thundering Herd are also averaging 7.58 yards per play so far this year. Marshall's offense is throwing the ball on 55% of their plays and they are taking plenty of shots downfield. Grant Wells has looked very good so far this season. Appalachian State ranks 82nd (just a bit slow) in tempo. The Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 6.60 yards per play on offense. Chase Brice has been a better fit in the offense than most expected (including myself). The Marshall defense looks good on paper, but they just gave up 42 points to E Carolina, who was the first decent offense they faced. Marshall has allowed only 7 red zone scores on 12 trips for opponents. Five forced turnovers in the red zone isn't sustainable out of 12 attempts. Marshall's defense is due for negative regression to the mean. With the pace this is played at being a Marshall game and a total only in the mid 50's, I have to side with the over. Take the over here.
09-18-21	Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5		21-20	Win	100	27 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is way down this year. Spencer Sanders no longer has Wallace or Stoner to throw to on the outside. The Cowboys still have some good running backs, but the offensive line play has been very questionable. In fact they rank 108th in run blocking grade according to PFF. Boise State's running game has been terrible this year as well. The Broncos are averaging 2.24 ypc on the season. How bad is the Boise State offensive front? They rank 122nd in PFF in run blocking grade. That is behind teams like USF and UConn. The weather could be a factor here as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected for this game. There is also a chance for some rain. That could make the two teams more conservative on offense, and that helps the under. Oklahoma State has somehow been amazing in the red zone (7 trips and 7 scores- including 6 TD's). That should regress to the mean. This isn't a good offense right now. Boise State has allowed 50% on third down conversions for their opponents, but I think that improves over the course of the year. Take the under here.
09-18-21	Utah State v. Air Force OVER 49		49-45	Win	100	138 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Air Force Falcons defense looks amazing right now. Why? They have gone up against the Lafayette Leopards and a terrible Navy offense. Navy runs the same style offense Air Force does, and they frankly aren't any good at it right now either. Air Force's defense may be pretty good this year, but they definitely aren't this good. I'll look to try to take advantage of the fact that their defensive numbers are skewed going into this game. Utah State is a much improved offense with Blake Anderson as head coach and Logan Bonner at quarterback. The Aggies are playing at the 10th fastest pace in the country. They are really getting off a lot of snaps quickly. Utah State should test Air Force with their solid running game and their ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game. On the other side, Air Force is an excellent running team. Utah State has allowed 4.28 ypc so far on the year and that was against Washington State and North Dakota. The Aggies clearly have some issues on the defensive end, and I would expect Air Force to be able to take advantage of those weaknesses. This is an awfully low total for a game involving a team that plays as fast as Utah State. These aren't great defenses either. Take the over.
09-18-21	Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53		20-28	Win	100	42 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Bo Nix has drastic home and road splits in his career. According to Sports Reference, Nix has thrown 15 TD's and 1 INT at home in his career. On the road he has 9 TD's and 10 INT's. He only has a 54% completion percentage on the road. Nix is playing at Happy Valley in front of a Whiteout crowd that will be amped up for this game. A very tough spot for an opposing quarterback. Auburn is very likely to try to run the ball early and often with Tank Bigsby and company. They will likely get some yards, but I don't see them gashing Penn State for a bunch of big gainers here. The Nittany Lions have been tremendous on defense so far this year. They allowed only 3.8 yards per play in Madison in a win over Wisconsin. Sean Clifford is inconsistent at quarterback for Penn State as well. Clifford is going up against an excellent secondary in Auburn. The Tigers likely have a top 5 secondary in the country. Penn State ranks 89th in the country in explosiveness on offense, so they aren't likely to be hitting many big plays here either. Two good defenses who do a good job denying big plays and questionable quarterbacks. Take the under.
09-18-21	East Carolina v. Marshall OVER 55		42-38	Win	100	123 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. That is despite the fact that they have played in two epic blowouts against Navy and North Carolina A&T. This team just keeps their foot on the gas and scores as much as they can. East Carolina has played Appalachian State and South Carolina so far this year. Those two teams rank 96th and 102nd in the country in tempo. They now go up against a team with a better offense and a team that is willing to play much faster. The Pirates are likely to give up quite a few points here. East Carolina's offense should improve over the course of the season, and both Appalachian State and South Carolina do have solid defenses. Marshall's defense is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in recent years. The pace of this game makes me think this total is several points too low. Take the over.
09-18-21	Eastern Michigan v. UMass OVER 55.5		42-28	Win	100	49 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UMass Minutemen once again have one of the worst defenses in the country. UMass allowed 51 points against Pitt and 45 against Boston College. Boston College scored 45 points in that game despite their star QB (Jurkovec) going down early with an injury. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team. I would expect them to be able to throw the ball with ease against UMass. UMass has allowed 14 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. The UMass offense is improving. They put up 28 points against a pretty decent Boston College defense last week. I think they can score here against a middle of the road or worse MAC defense in Eastern Michigan. A total set this low with two weak defenses is a good look to the over. Take the over here.

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