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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-18-21	Florida State v. Wake Forest UNDER 62		14-35	Win	100	38 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The biggest negative of taking the under in a game between Florida State and Wake Forest is you know there will be a fast tempo from both teams. Still, a total in the 60's between two inefficient offenses makes me like the under here. Wake Forest is averaging only 5.88 yards per play on the year (66th in the nation). They have played Old Dominion and Norfolk State. These are two awful defenses. The Demon Deacons are unlikely to be able to run on a Florida State defense that is giving up only 2.34 yards per carry on the season. They'll need to air it out. Sam Hartman is a pretty good quarterback, but Wake Forest is a short passing attack and they are unlikely to hit many big plays down the field. Florida State's offense ranks 86th in yards per play so far this year. This is still a bad offensive line that holds this team back. The Seminoles are unlikely to fix their problems on the offensive line anytime soon. Wake Forest can bring some pressure and I think they'll have success doing so in this game. This projects as a sloppy game between two improving defenses and two offenses who lack identity. Take the under.
09-18-21	Minnesota v. Colorado UNDER 51		30-0	Win	100	131 h 24 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Colorado Buffaloes defense is very strong led by linebacker Nate Landman. Colorado gave Texas A&M's offense a really hard time last week in Boulder. This unit is especially strong in the front seven. That's what you want when you are about to go up against the Minnesota Golden Gophers offense. Minnesota relies heavily on the running game. They are without star running back Ibrahim now, but I still expect them to be a solid running team through the season. They lack star wide receivers now that Bateman is gone. Morgan is a solid quarterback, but they want to rely on the running game most. The Colorado offense is still trying to find itself. The Buffaloes lack a downfield passing game and that makes things easier on the opposition. Both Minnesota and Colorado are running the ball on almost 70% of their offensive plays so far this season. A bunch of running the football means a lot of running clock. Minnesota ranks 123rd out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Colorado is also pretty slow at 88th. I think we see a lot of slow drives with the clock ticking away here. Take the under.
09-18-21	Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5		21-27	Win	100	34 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The West Virginia Mountaineers host the Virginia Tech Hokies in what should be a good contest in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech's performance on defense this year has really impressed me. In two games they have allowed only one play of 30 yards or more. That includes their season opener against a great North Carolina offense. The Virginia Tech front seven ranks 4th in the country in defensive havoc rate, so they are getting in the backfield early and often. West Virginia's offensive line is their biggest weakness on offense, and the Hokies should cause trouble in the backfield here. The Virginia Tech offense hasn't impressed me very much this season. They are averaging only 5.26 yards per play (88th in the nation) despite playing a weak MTSU defense and a mediocre North Carolina defense. Braxton Burmeister hasn't proven himself as a passer. This is still a very good West Virginia defense. Virginia Tech runs the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. Even their successful drives will take a long time. West Virginia's offensive line issues should make it hard for them to sustain too many drives. Take the under.
09-11-21	Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53		28-35	Win	100	124 h 52 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Kentucky Wildcats have a new offensive coordinator in Liem Coen. They also have a new quarterback in Will Levis. Levis looks like a significant upgrade from any QB the Wildcats played last year. Coen's system is more pass happy, and that will keep the opposition honest. In the past couple years, Kentucky could only run the ball. Missouri's defense is a relative weakness. The Tigers will likely struggle with the now two dimensional Kentucky offense. Connor Bazelak has proven to be a really nice QB for the Missouri offensive scheme. Drinkwitz is a good coach and I see Missouri continuing to improve especially on the offensive end. The Tigers have some nice weapons at the wideout spots. Kentucky has had a strong defense in recent years, but they have lost some key talent and they are no better than a mediocre SEC defense now. The faster pace Kentucky is playing at is not factored into the totals yet. Take the over.
09-11-21	Liberty v. Troy UNDER 62		21-13	Win	100	28 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Liberty and Troy should be a fun contest on Saturday. Liberty is a great "smaller name" team with Hugh Freeze doing a great job leading this team. It helps to have Malik Willis at quarterback. Liberty has won 9 straight games ATS. I'm not as interested in the wager ATS here, but I do like the value on the total. These are two teams who like to run the football a lot. Liberty is great at running the ball, but the strength of the Troy defense is their defensive line. Liberty's weakness defensively is their secondary, but I'm not convinced Troy has the offensive scheme and players in place to take advantage of that. Both Taylor Powell and Gunnar Watson are conservative and don't take many deep shots. We see a lot of screen passes and quick slants. The Liberty defensive front has gotten much better in recent years against the run. I expect Troy to run the football a lot here and if they do move it down the field it will take quite a bit of time. With a total set this high, you have to see a lot of explosive plays to reach the total. I think both teams will play slow enough and keep things in front of them that there is value to the under here. Take the under.
09-11-21	Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5		27-17	Win	100	98 h 23 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Iowa Hawkeyes go to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones this week. Iowa has dominated this series in recent history despite Iowa State having the better record and higher ranked team in many of those games. This has become quite the rivalry contest. Iowa State has a top 3 group of linebackers in the country. The DLine is also stacked from a run stuffing standpoint. That is good against an Iowa team that is very conservative and dependent on the running game. Iowa's Petras hasn't proven himself as a quarterback yet. The Iowa State offense is good, but they have struggled badly against this Iowa defense in the past. In two of the last four meetings, Iowa State has scored 3 points. In 3 of the last 4 they have scored 17 points or less. Iowa still has a top 10 or 12 secondary in the country. The Hawkeyes are always good against the run. Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team in the country. There should be a lot of running clock. The current forecast for Ames calls for 15-20 mph winds throughout this game. I like the under even without this, but it is a nice bonus if it comes to fruition. Take the under.
09-11-21	South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5		22-19	Win	100	134 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Bowling Green Falcons looked somewhat better on defense against Tennessee, but this Falcons team is still absolutely hapless on offense. Also, Bowling Green slowed their tempo down drastically in game one. Despite being far behind the Volunteers in the second half, Bowling Green averaged using 31.64 seconds between plays (very slow). South Alabama made a good hire in Kane Wommack. Wommack was wonderful as a defensive coordinator at Indiana, and he talked highly about the potential for this South Alabama defense. They looked great in week one against Southern Miss. Southern Miss averaged just 3.49 yards per play. Frank Gore Jr. and company couldn't get going against South Alabama. South Alabama averaged 30.59 seconds between plays in week one, and I would expect this team to continue to play slower than an average team. They will look to run the ball often as well and that keeps the clock moving. This one is totaled 4 points above my projected total. Take the under.
09-11-21	Texas A&M v. Colorado UNDER 52		10-7	Win	100	110 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Colorado Buffaloes lost their quarterback from last year, and the QB spot is a big question mark now. I expect Colorado to run the ball early and often this year and try to play at an extremely slow pace. They did have a big lead against N Colorado, but 77% of their offensive snaps in that game were running plays. Colorado's defense is led by star Nate Landman. I expect this Buffaloes defense to be improved compared to a year ago. Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country this year. Mike Elko is an excellent defensive coordinator, and this is the most talented defense he has had at Texas A&M. They gave up only 10 points against a really good Kent State offense last week. Texas A&M is led by O'Neal at strong safety. The defensive line is full of highly recruited talent. The Aggies are going to be very hard to move the ball on this year. Texas A&M still has question marks at quarterback, and I expect a fairly conservative game plan from the Aggies. They are talented on offense, but don't yet have a clear vision of what they will be. Take the under.
09-11-21	Pittsburgh v. Tennessee OVER 52.5		41-34	Win	100	129 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Tennessee Volunteers are likely to finish the country in the top 3 in the nation in tempo. Josh Heupel's teams always play at warp speed. UCF was first in the nation in pace of play last year. Tennessee averaged only 17.81 seconds between plays last week despite blowing out Bowling Green. The Volunteeers will play with extreme tempo. Pittsburgh has picked up their pace last year and this year. Kenny Pickett is now a veteran QB who knows this system very well. The Tennessee defense is much weaker than they have been in recent seasons. They are especially weak in the secondary. Pitt should be able to take advantage. The Pitt defense is still a good one, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they were a couple years ago. They lost several good defensive linemen, and their top safety (Hamlin) from last year. They will give up more big plays this year. The tempo will be extremely quick, and this is still a total set fairly low. I think it is several points too low. Take the over.
09-11-21	Tulsa v. Oklahoma State UNDER 51.5		23-28	Win	100	69 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma State Cowboys averaged only 1.93 yards per carry against Missouri State in week one. PFF graded their run blocking lower than they did for any Oklahoma State game last year. It was against Missouri State! Oklahoma State lacks weapons in the passing game that they had last year. Both Stoner and Wallace are gone and their deep threats are severely lacking. Spencer Sanders missed last week's game because of COVID protocols and he is questionable here. Sanders still has never shown he can be great in this offense and now he is without his star receivers. The offensive line in front of him is a big question mark. Tulsa's offense is a huge question mark. Davis Brin steps in at QB, but Tulsa lost 19-17 against UC Davis in week one. Brin has 2 INT's and no touchdown passes. Smith was very good at QB for Tulsa last year and they will miss him. While Tulsa's defense is down without Collins, they still have a very good defensive front and I think they'll cause problems for the Oklahoma State offensive line. The weather here calls for very hot temperatures and 20 mph winds gusting to 30 mph during the game. Take the under.
09-11-21	Western Kentucky v. Army OVER 51.5		35-38	Win	100	43 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a new look this year. Western Kentucky is airing it out early and often. They brought in Bailey Zappe at quarterback from Houston Baptist. They also brought in Zach Kittley as their offensive coordinator. He was the OC at Houston Baptist a year ago. If that wasn't enough, they brought in Houston Baptist's top two receivers from a year ago. Western Kentucky's offense needed a complete overhaul after an ugly year last year, and that is exactly what they got. Now, the Hilltoppers are an air raid offense built around uptempo principles. Army is a slow paced team that relies on running the football about 85 or 90% of the time. Western Kentucky allowed 5.91 yards per carry last week against Tennessee Martin. It's highly unlikely that they'll be able to stop this Army ground attack. The Hilltoppers defense lost a ton from their front seven a year ago. What about Army on defense? They are accustomed to playing against triple option and run heavy teams. They have no one in practice who can simulate what Bailey Zappe and this impressive passing attack of Western Kentucky can do. This total has been bet down a few points to a level where I have to play the over. I think both teams have an offensive edge here. Take the over.
09-04-21	Marshall v. Navy UNDER 48		49-7	Loss	-110	118 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Navy Midshipmen started terribly on defense last year. They weren't even hitting in practice and it showed in their 55-3 loss to BYU in their season opener. By the end of the season, Navy had clearly improved a lot on defense. They allowed 10 against Memphis, 19 against Tulsa, and 15 against Army in their last three games a year ago. Diego Fagot is a top notch linebacker, and he will lead an improved Navy defense this year. Marshall's defense ranked 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed last year. The Thundering Herd will once again be stellar against the run. Marshall's Jamere Edwards is a superior run stuffer. Penn State transfer Shane Simmons will help on the defensive line as well. The Thundering Herd ranked 83rd in tempo out of 128 teams last year. Navy ranked 117th. The Midshipmen will rank in the bottom five in the country in tempo in neutral situations this year. They only push the pace if they get way down. The oddsmakers expect this game to be close and I think that is a fair assumption. Neither team is particularly explosive on offense, and there will be a lot of running clock. Take the under here.
09-04-21	Temple v. Rutgers OVER 52		14-61	Win	100	10 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Rutgers Scarlet Knights ranked 15th in the nation in tempo last year. Sean Gleeson put his stamp on the offense and they clearly improved. Do I think they will become a great offense this year? No. I do think they will be even better though. Temple's defense rated 127th out of 128 teams in the country last year in tackling grade according to PFF. The Owls missed tackles like it was their job. They ranked 124th in opponent QBR. They picked up only 13 sacks in 7 games. Temple's offense should be improved with Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis at the helm. He was a very highly touted QB, but was inconsistent at Georgia. A big step down in class here. Rutgers was 80th in yards per play on defense last year. Temple's offense should be better this year. This is a fairly low total for a game with one team playing very fast. We also have two weak defenses. Take the over.
12-26-20	Liberty v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 59.5		37-34	Loss	-110	100 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are unbeaten and they should be plenty motivated to try to keep that perfect record. Liberty has only one loss on the year. Both of these teams are really well coached, and both teams know what their strengths are on offense. Both of these teams run the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. They also play at a very slow pace. Liberty is 97th in the nation in pace of play. Coastal Carolina is 119th in the nation in pace of play. We should see a lot of running the football and moving clock in this one. This is a high total for two teams who are conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I also expect both teams to be plenty motivated and that should help. I never want to take an under in bowl season in a game where I question the motivation of the teams. Whichever team gets the lead here will try to run the ball consistently and slow the game down in a big way in the second half. Take the under here.
12-25-20	Marshall v. Buffalo UNDER 54		10-17	Win	100	94 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd rank fourth in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo wants to run the football early and often. The Bulls are first in the nation in yards per carry, but they played some extremely weak run defenses in the MAC. Buffalo will still get their yards here, but they should be tougher to come by. Marshall's offense has been exposed in a big way in their last couple games. The Thundering Herd scored 13 points in their last two games combined. Both Rice and UAB made this Marshall offense look very bad. Grant Wells put up some big numbers against really bad defenses early in the season. Both of these teams play slowly and they run the ball at a very high rate. There should be a lot of moving clock and slow long drives. Both defenses do a good job not giving up explosive plays. Look for a lower scoring game here.
12-19-20	Arizona State v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5		46-33	Loss	-110	30 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Arizona State put up 70 points which makes this look like a questionable selection, but Arizona just handed the Sun Devils that game last week. I don't think Arizona State's offense is bad, but they certainly aren't as good as they looked last week. Oregon State likes to run the football a lot, and I think they will try to establish the run in this game. Arizona State is a slower paced team and they are fairly conservative on offense as well. The Sun Devils defense has shown to be a high quality unit so far this year. The weather here makes me play the under. There is a 90% chance of rain with winds of 15-17 mph expected throughout this game. It is expected to be quite a bit of rain. The combination of rain and wind is a clear positive for the under. Take the under here.
12-18-20	Oregon v. USC OVER 62		31-24	Loss	-107	52 h 10 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Two explosive offenses face off on Friday night in southern California. Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and this Oregon defense has been a big disappointment this year. Oregon has allowed 5.73 YPP on the season, and this may be the most talented offense they have faced yet. Oregon's offense has been better than expected this year. The Ducks rank 9th in YPP in the nation on offense. They have 30 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games. They have a ton of speed in the backfield. Conditions look perfect for this game, and I see both offenses with clear advantages. This should be a close game that turns into a shootout. Take the over. This line varies significantly from book to book- I would rate this a 4 star play up to 64 and 3 star at anything higher than that.
12-12-20	San Diego State v. BYU UNDER 49.5		14-28	Win	100	68 h 52 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The San Diego State Aztecs offense is awful. San Diego State picked up a brutal 2.6 yards per play on offense against Colorado two weeks ago. They then followed it up by picking up only 3.4 yards per play against Colorado State. San Diego State has absolutely no passing game, so if they are going to move the ball it will have to be on the ground. That makes this a hard matchup for them since the strength of the BYU defense is their run defense. BYU is 16th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. BYU's offense is a very good unit, but San Diego State ranks first in the nation in yards per play allowed this season. The Aztecs front seven is excellent and they should be able to get some pressure on Wilson here. The Cougars will score their points here, but they are moving slowly and it should take some time. I see both defenses forcing some field goals here, and with two teams who play slowly and do run the football quite a bit, I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under.
12-12-20	Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 62.5		7-56	Loss	-110	121 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Buffalo likes to run the ball early and often. The Bulls play at a very slow pace. Akron has slowed their pace to a crawl this year as well. This is a very high total for a game being played at this kind of a pace with both teams running the football. The weather here looks very questionable. I don't see Akron contributing many points at all here. This is an awfully high total for one team to get nearly all the points in a game that projects as a slow paced game with a lot of running. The weather here doesn't look very good either. I see value on the under. Take the under.
12-05-20	West Virginia v. Iowa State UNDER 49.5		6-42	Win	100	17 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Iowa State Cyclones are a strong defensive team. West Virginia is very good on the defensive end as well. West Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a weak schedule, but this is a very good defense who should be able to at least slow down Brock Purdy and the Cyclones offense. West Virginia's offense hasn't been very good overall, and they have been very weak away from home. Iowa State's front seven should be able to shut down the running game and put pressure on the quarterback here. Take the under.
12-05-20	Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 58		3-31	Win	100	120 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Bowling Green Falcons meet the Akron Zips in what should be a really bad game. These two teams are the worst two teams in the MAC, and they are two of the bottom five teams in the country overall. The last two seasons when these two teams met the final score was 35-6 and 21-6. The two teams combined for a pathetic 376 yards of total offense last year. Akron is playing at a much slower pace this year. They have decided that they have to do their best to play keep away and hide their really bad defense. The Zips offense hasn't been able to get many big plays at all this year. Bowling Green's quarterback play has been awful. The Falcons have the run the football, and that means a running clock a bunch of the time. I don't want to watch this game and neither should you, but I do think the under holds value. Take the under.
12-05-20	Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55		29-0	Win	100	16 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The South Alabama Jaguars have played one game that finished higher than this total, and that was against Arkansas State. Arkansas State is the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have a great offense and a terrible defense. Troy has been really bad offensively the last few weeks. Their offensive line is a big problem. The Trojans have scored 13, 17, and 10 points in their last three games. This total has been bet up to a point where the under has value. Take the under here.
12-05-20	Texas v. Kansas State UNDER 54		69-31	Loss	-111	118 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats prefer to play at an extremely slow pace. Kansas State also runs the ball on 59% of their snaps on offense. Texas is much improved on defense this year. They rank 29th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Longhorns are likely to load up the box and dare Kansas State to beat them through the air here. Kansas State's defense has been much better at home so far this year. They should be able to slow down a Texas offense that is very inconsistent. I had this one a few points lower than the total here. I think this is a good value. Take the under.
12-05-20	Rice v. Marshall UNDER 45.5		20-0	Win	100	69 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd host the Rice Owls in a Conference USA matchup on Saturday afternoon. Last year when these two teams met, the final score was Marshall 20 and Rice 7. Marshall does have a better offense this year, but they are a run heavy team that plays slowly. The Thundering Herd rank 100th in the nation in tempo. Rice is even slower at 113th. Both of these teams run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays, which should mean a lot of running clock in this game. Rice just played a 27-17 game against North Texas, who has some of the highest scoring games in the country on average. They also played a 30-6 game against Southern Miss. Marshall won 17-7 over App State and 20-9 over FLA Atlantic. There is a chance of rain during this game (it will mainly rain before the game and will create a wet field), and there is a little bit of wind. This could make the teams even more conservative. Look for a low scoring game here. Take the under.
12-03-20	Louisiana Tech v. North Texas OVER 65.5		42-31	Win	100	76 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank second in the nation in tempo. They also have a terrible defense. North Texas just allowed Sincere McCormick from UTSA to set a new school record for rushing yards last week. They gave up 49 points to a middle of the UTSA offense. North Texas has been very good at getting explosive plays on offense. The Mean Green already have 29 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They face a LA Tech defense that is no better than league average. I feel like LA Tech's scores have been depressed a bit by the teams they have played so far this year. North Texas is the best over team in Conference USA. Take the over.
11-28-20	Nevada v. Hawaii OVER 58.5	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	129 h 55 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over The Nevada Wolf Pack have only 9 touchdowns in 22 trips into the red zone. Nevada's offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone. Carson Strong is a really good fit in the air raid offense. They also have an elite receiver in Romeo Doubs. Nevada put up 26 points against a very good San Diego State defense last weekend. The Wolf Pack gained 374 yards in that game. In a normal game that isn't all that impressive, but San Diego State ranks 2nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Hawaii ranks 22nd in the nation in pace of play. This team is throwing it less this year, but they are still playing very fast. Nevada's defensive numbers look very good, but who have they played that is any good at offense? They haven't played a team in the top 60 in the nation in yards per play on offense. Nevada should be susceptible to the big play again this year. Both of these teams should get several chances in the red zone and both are due for positive regression when they get there. The pace of the game here means this total is set a few points lower than it should be. Take the over. Top Rated play. Note- this has moved a little bit during the week. I would rate this a 5 star play up to 61. At 61.5 or higher this would be a 4 star rated play. Thanks and good luck.
11-28-20	Utah v. Washington UNDER 49.5		21-24	Win	100	66 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Huskies allowed only 46 yards against Arizona in the Wildcats first 33 plays from scrimmage last week. Once Washington took a huge lead, Arizona then put up more than 300 yards in the fourth quarter when the game had been decided. Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded coach, and he wasn't happy that the Huskies gave up a lot in the fourth quarter against Arizona. I think that helps us here this week. Washington shut down Arizona when it mattered last week, and now they have heard from their coach all week about how much they can improve. Utah's defense lost a lot from last year. Where the Utes will be able to be beaten this year is through the air. Washington is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year, and the Huskies have an inexperienced quarterback. Utah is still very strong in the trenches, and they should be able to slow the Washington ground game. Utah doesn't have a strong rushing attack, but they might be able to beat some teams through the air. Washington has my highest rated secondary in the Pac 12. The Huskies are going to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks. I see two teams who play at a very slow pace and prefer to be conservative on offense. I also see two high quality defenses. Take the under here.
11-28-20	North Texas v. UTSA OVER 64.5		17-49	Win	100	121 h 0 m	Show
4 Star Play Over UTSA is playing significantly faster this season. The Roadrunners have had some lower scoring games, but that is largely because of who they have played. UTSA played a Florida Atlantic team that has had a bunch of low scoring games. They also played Army and UAB who are slow paced low scoring teams. They aren't playing a low scoring slow paced team in this one. Instead, they are playing North Texas, who plays as fast as anyone in the country. North Texas is snapping the ball every 19.5 seconds. The Mean Green are also 11th in the nation in yards per play. UTSA has already allowed 21 plays of 30 yards or more so far this season. North Texas should get a lot of big gainers here. UTSA ranks 46th in YPC this year, and North Texas' run defense is terrible. The Roadrunners will see their scoring opportunities throughout as well. North Texas has had only one game fall below 70 points all season. Take the over.
11-28-20	Ball State v. Toledo OVER 63		27-24	Loss	-110	58 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Ball State Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAC. Ball State is using only 22.9 seconds between plays. The Cardinals have good balance on offense too. They are tremendous in the running game with Caleb Huntley, but Drew Plitt and the passing game can get explosive plays as well. Last year when these two teams met Ball State won 52-14. Ball State ran for nearly 400 yards in that game! The Cardinals are likely to find a lot of success offensively again. Toledo was without their starting quarterback in last year's contest, and they could never get anything going on offense. The Rockets are unlikely to have the same problem this year. Toledo already has 15 plays of 20 yards or more in three games this season. Ball State's defense has really looked bad so far this season, and they have played some of the weakest offenses in the MAC. Toledo is one of the best offenses in the MAC. This line has moved down to the point where there is good value on the over here. The MAC is an over conference on the whole, and these are two very good offenses. Take the over.
11-28-20	SMU v. East Carolina OVER 67		38-52	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Over How did this game go last year? SMU defeated East Carolina 59-51. Both teams had more than 630 yards in the game. It was a shootout all the way. Why would this game be all that different? SMU is still very good in the passing game this year. The Mustangs already have 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year, which is the third most of anyone in the country. Both SMU and East Carolina rank in the bottom 20 teams in the country at preventing explosive plays. There should be a lot of big gainers from each side here. SMU provides the tempo, and I like the East Carolina offense better when they are playing from behind because Holton Ahlers seems to be able to get into a rhythm throwing it around later in the game in those situations. The weather looks good here and I expect a high scoring game. Take the over.
11-28-20	Bowling Green v. Ohio OVER 54		10-52	Win	100	16 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons defense is absolutely awful. The offense isn't much better. Bowling Green does like to play very fast though, and that tends to lead to value on the over in their games. The Falcons rank 34th in the nation in pace of play. Ohio's offense was kept off the field quite a bit by Akron in their last game. The Bobcats are averaging a solid 6.04 YPP so far this year, but it has been only 24 and 27 points for them in their first two contests. Ohio isn't quite as good offensively as they were last year, but they did put up a whopping 66 points on Bowling Green last season. Bowling Green's running game is slightly better this year, and I think they can get some yardage on the ground here. If Bowling Green can get to 20 points here we should be able to get the over. I think this total is set too low because Ohio had such a low scoring game against Akron. Bowling Green is going to give up a bunch of points this year. Take the over.
11-27-20	Oregon v. Oregon State OVER 61.5		38-41	Win	100	102 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Oregon Ducks offense is much more explosive this year despite losing a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. Why? A new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead is a really good offensive mind who puts his players in positions to make big plays. Oregon already has a whopping 21 plays of 20 yards or more in only three games. The Ducks have several good running backs who put a lot of pressure on any defense, and the Oregon State run defense is a big problem because of their weak defensive interior on the line. Oregon has been a big disappointment defensively. The Ducks are giving up 6.32 yards per play so far this year. Their tackling needs some serious work, and the biggest problem spot is their run defense. That isn't good when going against Jefferson and the Oregon State running attack. Oregon State is 29th in pace of play and the Beavers should be able to hit some big gainers against this Oregon defense. Oregon will put up a bunch of points in this contest and Oregon State should put up enough as well. Take the over.
11-27-20	Central Florida v. South Florida OVER 67		58-46	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UCF Knights rank first in the nation in pace of play. They are using only 19 seconds between plays on average. The USF Bulls rank 30th and they are only using 23.32 seconds between plays in conference action. This game should have a bunch of plays in it. That's always a good start for a high over. UCF is first in the nation with 71 plays of 20 yards or more. The Knights have only played eight games, so they are really putting up the big gainers at a very high rate. USF is giving up 6.17 yards per play in AAC action so far. UCF should put up a very big number here. It would be surprise if they don't at least get into the upper 40's. USF has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and there are two great offensive minds on this staff in Jeff Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. The UCF defense has been a big weakness this year, and I do think USF will get their yards and scoring opportunities here. Take the over.
11-27-20	Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 60.5		23-20	Win	100	94 h 40 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Texas Longhorns are much better defensively this season. Texas ranks 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. The defensive coaching staff is much better this year, and they have done a good job being aggressive on this side of the football. Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. They should be able to make Texas one dimensional on offense. Iowa State already has 22 sacks this year, and the Texas offensive line is a weakness. Iowa State is playing at an extremely slow pace to have a game totaled this high. The game could certainly get to the total if there are a bunch of big plays or turnovers for scores, but in a normal game state I don't see this one getting this high. The last 5 meetings between these two have finished at this many combined points: 24, 33, 24, 34, and 44 points. Take the under here.
11-21-20	Mississippi State v. Georgia UNDER 45.5		24-31	Loss	-110	125 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Mississippi State Bulldogs have averaged 3.6 yards per play in all of their last four games. That is just woeful offense. Importantly, they played Vanderbilt last game and could only muster 14 first downs and 206 yards. Georgia's defense was embarrassed by Florida, and they should be ready to go for this one. Georgia is still a very good defense, and it would be a surprise if Mississippi State can do much of anything on offense here. Georgia is in flux at quarterback. JT Daniels might get the start here. This offense is likely to be pretty conservative this week. Additionally, Mississippi State's defense has actually been very solid this year. They are 35th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Expect a low scoring contest. Take the under.
11-21-20	Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 50		0-45	Win	100	121 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kansas State is an under team. They are well-coached, and Klieman knows the best way for his team to stay in games and win is slow the game down and win with defense and great special teams play. Kansas State wants to run the ball a lot, but Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. The Wildcats aren't likely to have much success on the ground. Iowa State has slowed their tempo down a lot this year. The Cyclones rank 106th in the nation in tempo. I don't think they'll be too aggressive on offense either. Look for both defenses to have the upper hand here. The early forecast calls for a chance of rain and some wind here too. That would just be a bonus for the under. Take the under.
11-21-20	California v. Oregon State UNDER 53		27-31	Loss	-110	121 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Cal picked up 2.8 yards per play on UCLA in their season opener. When I first saw that number I had to do a double take. UCLA's defense is very weak, and Cal could do nothing against them. Oregon State's defense fought hard against Washington on Saturday night. The Beavers aren't a great defense by any means, but with a total set this high against Cal, I think they can slow them down plenty to keep this under. The Oregon State offense is pretty good on the ground, but the passing attack is a real problem right now. Their quarterback has shown no signs of being comfortable in this offense. Cal's defensive front is a strong one. I like the line value here. Take the under.
11-21-20	Rice v. North Texas OVER 62		17-27	Loss	-110	84 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't even close. North Texas is going to snap the ball as quickly as they possibly can. The Mean Green have yet to play a game this year that didn't have a final total of at least 70 points. Rice is definitely a slower paced team, and the Owls will look to run the ball quite a bit here. Still, the Owls should break some big plays against a woeful North Texas defense. Additionally, North Texas will break some explosive plays against a questionable Rice run defense here as well. This total has been bet down to the point I have to back the over. A total in the low 60's with one team (North Texas) snapping the ball every 19 seconds is an automatic look to the over. Take the over here.
11-21-20	LSU v. Arkansas OVER 64		27-24	Loss	-110	117 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Arkansas is playing at a really fast pace of late. Arkansas is using only 22.62 seconds between snaps. The Razorbacks have been inconsistent on offense, but LSU has been awful defensively all season. LSU is giving up a whopping 7.21 yards per play so far this year. The Tigers have allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games! Arkansas will get a lot of plays here, and they should break some big gainers. LSU's offense is still very good. LSU is 38th in the nation in yards per play on offense, and they have been up against a few good defenses already this year. I see this as a back and forth game. Take the over.
11-21-20	Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 59		41-23	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Illinois Fighting Illini gave up more than 600 yards and 42 points against Nebraska last year. That was a 42-38 game. Two years ago when these teams played it was Nebraska 54-35 over Illinois. Why is this total set so low? Nebraska has played three good defenses this year. They faced Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Nebraska struggled offensively in these games, but I expect the Cornhuskers to put up a big number here against a terrible Illinois defense. Also, Illinois is expected to get back starting quarterback Brandon Peters. Isiah Williams is also expected to see some time as a great running threat at quarterback. I think the fact that both of these teams have played some lower scoring games early this year has led to this total being lower than it should be. Early in the week the weather looked bad for this game, but now there is just a 25% chance of a light shower and very little wind. Take the over here.
11-20-20	Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 59		31-34	Win	100	101 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota defense is so bad right now, I believe everyone they play will be able to put up quite a few points. Minnesota has allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just four games. The Golden Gophers linebackers are weak, and they are being exposed by opponents on a weekly basis. Minnesota still has a good quarterback and good wide receivers, and I think they can move the ball here on a subpar Purdue secondary. Both coaches here are good offensive minds, and the weather looks good for this matchup. Take the over here.
11-14-20	Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 58		21-27	Win	100	129 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Oregon State wants to play slowly and run the football a lot. The Beavers were forced out of that style in the second half against Washington State, but they will try to control the ball and move slowly. Washington is a team I like to be an under team with Jimmy Lake as their head coach. He wants to run the football and win with defense. Look for this team to be very physical and look to move the ball gradually down the field on long drives. The clock should be running a lot in this one. Washington has an elite secondary and Oregon State is unlikely to get much through the air. Take the under.
11-14-20	Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 59.5		43-29	Loss	-110	124 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I don't see Washington State having the same kind of offensive success against Oregon that they had against Oregon State. Oregon's defense is the best in the Pac 12 on paper. The Ducks secondary is arguably the best in the country. As good as De Laura looked in week one against the Beavers, he shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Ducks. I also want to note that Washington State played at a very slow pace in their week one win. This isn't going to be the aerial attack fast paced offense it was under Mike Leach. They will run the ball a lot more, and I expect them to play at a slower than average tempo. The early weather report calls for strong winds in this game, and that is another positive for the under. Take the under here.
11-14-20	Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 61		27-20	Loss	-110	124 h 9 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Nevada Wolf Pack aerial attack really impresses me. Carson Strong is a really good fit for the air raid, and he has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Romeo Doubs. New Mexico was just torched through the air by a Hawaii team that isn't great in the passing game. New Mexico has already allowed eight plays of 40 yards or more in two games! This Lobos defense is really bad. New Mexico plays very fast, and there should be quite a few possessions in this game. Take the over here.
11-14-20	Northwestern v. Purdue UNDER 51		27-20	Win	100	22 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather forecast here calls for winds of 20 mph during the game with gusts to 30 mph. There is also a 60-70% chance of rain during the game. That kind of weather can really change a game. Purdue is unsure if they will have Rondale Moore back for this game. He has been sidelined for undisclosed reasons. Purdue's running game has been very weak and the weather should hurt the passing attack. Northwestern has a better quarterback this year, but they still aren't taking very many risks offensively. The Wildcats are actually playing at a slower pace this year than they did a year ago. This Northwestern defense is elite. They are 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Pat Fitzgerald's teams are always good on defense, and Northwestern has great veteran leaders at linebacker this year. With these conditions, I'm on the under. Take the under here.
11-14-20	Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 58		23-24	Win	100	37 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Baylor Bears are a defensive-minded team. Baylor averages only 4.71 yards per play on offense. The Bears are allowing 3 sacks per game. Baylor also isn't getting many big plays. Texas Tech offensively has been a big disappointment. They haven't gotten the good quarterback play they expected. They have struggled to get explosive plays as well. The weather here is a big reason for the play. The winds here are expected to be 25 mph sustained with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is some intense wind, and it will make both teams far more conservative. High totals with a lot of wind have been great under plays in the past, and I like the value here. Neither team has a good running game, and the passing game should be more difficult here with the weather conditions. Take the under.
11-14-20	UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 48		21-52	Loss	-110	120 h 27 m	Show
4 Star Play Under UTEP will play about as slow as anyone in the country this year. Coach Dimel is looking to try to save the defense which isn't deep. They'll run the football and attempt to use the clock and win low scoring games. It's the recipe his old school (Kansas State) uses to win games. UTSA is much improved on defense, and the area where they have been susceptible is through the air, but I don't see UTEP being able to take advantage of that weakness. Look for both defenses to have the edge here in what should be a game where both teams struggle in the red zone. Take the under.
11-14-20	TCU v. West Virginia UNDER 45.5		6-24	Win	100	15 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The West Virginia Mountaineers won 20-17 over TCU late last year in a game where neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. I think the defenses will be ahead of the offenses again here. TCU didn't look very good defensively early in the season, but in their last couple games they have rounded into form. Gary Patterson is a defensive-minded coach, so his defense improving at this stage of the season shouldn't be a surprise. West Virginia ranks in the top ten nationally in all major defensive categories. They haven't played a tough schedule, but this TCU offense isn't good either. TCU lacks playmakers at the skill positions on offense. I see this as a lower scoring battle where both teams struggle to get into the end zone. Take the under.
11-14-20	Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech OVER 67.5		25-24	Loss	-110	14 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Virginia Tech Hokies run defense has been awful this year. Miami has big play potential in the backfield at all times. Virginia Tech has allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. The Hokies are allowing 5.16 yards per carry on the year. Miami is allowing huge plays on defense this year too. This Hurricanes defense is far worse than they have been in recent seasons. Miami has allowed a whopping 37 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. Both Virginia Tech and Miami are much improved on offense this season. Miami is playing faster with King at quarterback as well. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in explosive plays on offense. Expect a lot of big plays both ways. Take the over.
11-14-20	Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 52		24-0	Loss	-109	14 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack looked very good last week. I wasn't sure if Penix was going to be consistent as a passer, but he looked great against what should be at least a decent Michigan secondary last week. Indiana's single biggest strength on offense is their pass catchers. They have tremendous wide receivers and they have a lot of size. That will be very tough for Michigan State to matchup against this week. Michigan State has been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but this team is far different. They allowed 38 to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa. It's true the offense and its miscues played a big role in those scores, but this defense is no longer any better than mediocre. Michigan State will have to throw the ball often here. Indiana's run defense is very strong, but I do think their secondary can be beaten by many teams. Since I think Indiana will be ahead here, that should put the Spartans in passing downs for much of the game. Take the over.
11-11-20	Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 62		31-38	Loss	-110	19 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ball State Cardinals lost 38-31 against Miami last week. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 against Kent State last week. Ball State is going to have quite a few high scoring games this year, but I think Eastern Michigan wants to do everything they can to keep games lower scoring this season. Eastern Michigan played slowly against Kent State, and the Eagles averaged only 4.5 yards per play in that game. They held Kent State to 27 points. Kent State was able to put up 62 points on Bowling Green on Tuesday night. Bowling Green averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense in that game, and I don't think Kent State's defense is very good. Eastern Michigan lacks playmakers on offense in a big way. Their offensive line has been a strength in the past, but it isn't anymore. Ball State's secondary was expected to be pretty good this year. They weren't good in week one, but I think they'll look better here. Since I expect Ball State to have the lead, I think they'll slow their tempo down later in the game here. This total is posted 5 points higher than the posted total when these two played last year. The final score in that game was 29-23. Take the under.
11-07-20	New Mexico v. Hawaii OVER 60.5		33-39	Win	100	129 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New Mexico Lobos have a new coaching staff and they want to play as fast as they possibly can. New Mexico only used 22.75 seconds between plays last weekend. The Lobos did get 7 plays of 20 yards or more in game one. Hawaii will play quickly under Todd Graham. They struggled badly on offense last week against Wyoming, but this New Mexico defense is far worse than that Wyoming defense. New Mexico gave up 7.52 yards per play against a very ordinary San Jose State offense last week. Look for a lot of points from both sides. Take the over.
11-07-20	South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 56.5		6-23	Win	100	126 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I have really been impressed with Coastal Carolina this year. How could you not be? Coastal Carolina is due for some regression to the mean on offense with their red zone and third down conversion numbers. Still, it is important to point out how much this Coastal defense has improved. Their defensive front is getting in the backfield a bunch, and they are up against a weak S Bama offensive line. Both of these teams are very run heavy and they play slowly. Look for a lot of running clock in this one. Take the under.
11-07-20	Stanford v. Oregon UNDER 54		14-35	Win	100	126 h 5 m	Show
4 star Play Under I'm very high on the Oregon defense this year. The Ducks have arguably the best secondary in the nation. They also have a good pass rush and good inside linebackers to stuff the run. It should be very hard to score on this team this season. Stanford always plays slowly and I would expect the same this year. Stanford's defense looks improved especially in the secondary. The Oregon offense is down a notch after they lost Justin Herbert. Look for a more conservative game plan from the Ducks this season. Take the under.
11-07-20	UCLA v. Colorado UNDER 57		42-48	Loss	-110	114 h 40 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Colorado Buffaloes don't have a good option at all at quarterback. They also have a new coaching staff who really wants to run the football and try to control the clock. I look for the Buffaloes offense to be much more conservative this year. They do have depth at the running back spot, and they are likely to use that early and often. UCLA has DTR at quarterback and he should be pretty good this year, but he doesn't have much talent around him, and the offensive line in front of him is a weak one. The UCLA defense isn't great by any means, but they are better than last year. I don't think the market knows how much Colorado will run the football this year and play slowly. Look for them to grind away in this game. Take the under.
11-07-20	Western Kentucky v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 39.5		6-10	Win	100	22 h 42 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Florida Atlantic Owls have played three games this year. The final scores in those games have been: 21-17, 20-9, and 24-3. Western Kentucky has scored 14 points or less on offense in their last four straight games. These two teams have shown the ability to play in some very low scoring games. The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will change this game. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 25-30 mph in this game with gusts to 40 mph. There is an 80 percent chance for rain and there could even be some heavy rain and thunderstorms during this one. These two teams are already fairly conservative on offense, but they will likely be even more conservative here. It will be very tough to kick field goals in this weather. Neither of these teams get many big plays to begin with, and in this weather that should be cut down even more. Take the under.
11-07-20	Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 51.5		20-18	Win	100	122 h 25 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Oklahoma State's game against Texas last weekend was deceptive. It was a very high scoring game, but Texas only gained a measly 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma State turned the ball over in their own end a bunch, and they also gave up a kick return touchdown. Kansas State is a good under team with their running the football and very slow paced offense. Oklahoma State is a very run heavy team as well, and I think Kansas State will try to load up the box in this one. The early forecast for this game calls for 25 mph winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That would be a big boost to the under as well. Take the under.
11-07-20	Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 54.5		21-38	Loss	-107	14 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines defense was a disappointment last week against Michigan State. I think they'll play better here. Michigan has a strong defensive line. They are up against an Indiana team that is really struggling on the offensive front. Penix isn't a bad quarterback for Indiana, but he hasn't had much time to throw. Stevie Scott hasn't had anywhere to run either. Michigan's offensive line is a major weakness this year too, and Indiana has a solid defensive front seven. I don't know that Michigan has the tools to make Indiana pay for their relative weakness in the secondary. Both of these teams have struggled with getting big plays offensively in recent years. These are two teams with defensive-minded head coaches. I think this one should be around 51 so I'll take the value here. Take the under.
10-31-20	Nevada v. UNLV OVER 57		37-19	Loss	-110	129 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I really like Carson Strong in the air raid offense of Nevada. Nevada's passing attack couldn't be stopped against a Wyoming defense that is clearly better than this UNLV defense. UNLV allowed 5.67 yards per play against San Diego State offense that has major problems. UNLV should improve some offensively, and I think they'll have to pick up their pace as they are likely playing from behind in this game. The Rebels have several options at quarterback this season. I had this one in the low 60's. Take the over.
10-31-20	Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 57		31-42	Loss	-105	126 h 34 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I've been really impressed by the Arkansas secondary so far this year. They have faced some good passing attacks and really shut them down. Their performance against Ole Miss was particularly impressive. Barry Odom is doing a great job with this defense. Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are inconsistent on offense. I see this being a team that can look great on some days and terrible on others. Arkansas should give them enough looks that frustrate them and make them less efficient than normal. Arkansas on offense has only 11 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Razorbacks don't get big chunks, and Texas A&M is a well-coached defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under.
10-31-20	Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59		41-34	Loss	-109	26 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both significantly better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They returned a lot of talent defensively, and Texas upgraded at the defensive coordinator spot. Oklahoma State is a run heavy team, so the clock should keep ticking on a lot of their offensive plays. Texas will give up some yards here, but they have been solid at not giving up big rushing plays. Texas' offensive line hasn't held up well against the best defensive lines they have played this year. I think this Oklahoma State defensive front gets in the backfield quite a bit in this contest. The weather here calls for winds of 15-17 mph which is a bit of a help for the under as well. The recent high scores between these two has given us some value on the under. Take the under here.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa OVER 45		21-20	Loss	-115	122 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Over With a new offensive coordinator this year, Northwestern is playing much quicker. The Wildcats offense looked great against Maryland in game one. They averaged 6.47 yards per play in that contest. Iowa is clearly better on defense than Maryland, but Iowa's defense is definitely down from a couple years ago. Iowa still has enough weapons on offense to move the ball at least some of the time in this game. The posted total was set so low that with the pace Northwestern is playing at, I had to back the over here. Take the over.
10-31-20	Indiana v. Rutgers UNDER 53.5		37-21	Loss	-110	18 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Rutgers Scarlet Knights only scored a bunch of points on Michigan State because Michigan State turned the ball over 7 times! Rutgers only managed 3.9 yards per play on offense. The Scarlet Knights will be improved on offense from a year ago (it would be hard not to be), but this offense isn't good. Rutgers will play at a relatively slow pace this year, and I would expect a lot of running plays. That plays into the strength of the Indiana defense, which is their front seven. Indiana has gotten so much better against the run in the last few years under Tom Allen. Indiana wasn't good offensively against Penn State. They averaged only 3.4 yards per play on offense. Again, it was Penn State's miscues that led to easier scores for Indiana. The Hoosiers will look quite a bit better on offense here, but their offensive line isn't very good. I think Penix and the skill position players will make some nice plays, but I don't think they totally dominate this Rutgers defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under.
10-31-20	Central Florida v. Houston OVER 76.5		44-21	Loss	-109	120 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UCF Knights games have been extremely high scoring this year. In fact, three of their five games have finished with 79 points or more. The Knights other two games finished with 60 and 70 points. UCF ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are averaging a whopping 7.05 yards per play. Houston's defense has been terrible against the pass, and UCF has plenty of weapons in the passing game. BYU put up 43 points on Houston, and BYU doesn't play at a quick pace. The UCF defense has disappointed this year. They have allowed 34 points or more in their last three games. Houston's weapons at skill positions on offense are very solid. Take the over.
10-29-20	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 51.5		17-24	Win	100	40 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Georgia Southern Eagles play at an extremely slow pace. They are using nearly 33 seconds between plays, which would have ranked them as the slowest pace team in the nation last season. This is an extremely slow paced team that runs the football nearly 75% of the time. There will be a lot of running clock in this one. South Alabama is improved on offense, but they have played some really weak defense and they are due for some regression. They are converting on 49.32% of third down conversion attempts and that can't continue for a team that is getting behind the chains with as many big negative plays as they are right now. They are improved on offense, but they aren't this much better. South Alabama is also slower than the average team by quite a bit in terms of tempo. Some wind is expected for this one in Statesboro on Thursday night. Sustained winds of about 16 mph are a boost to the under. This midweek games have trended under through the years in college football. I see value on the under here. Take the under.
10-24-20	Wyoming v. Nevada OVER 48	Top	34-37	Win	100	125 h 12 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over Nevada returns 10 starters on the offensive end this year. They will run the air raid with Mumme as their offensive coordinator. With a second year quarterback who looked good as a freshman, I expect their offensive numbers to be much better this season. Wyoming has two solid quarterback options in Chambers and Williams. The Wyoming offensive line is probably the best offensive line in the Mountain West. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball on nearly everyone in this conference. Wyoming's defense should be way down from a year ago, and that is the primary reason I think this total is several points too low. With more scoring in general this year, this is a very low posted total. I think both teams get into the mid 20's here at least. Take the over. TOP Rated play.
10-24-20	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 64	Top	16-27	Win	100	122 h 51 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under Texas has had several high scoring games that are very misleading. They went into 4 overtimes vs. Oklahoma, but both teams averaged less than 5 yards per play. They also had a bunch of special teams/defensive setups for scores against Texas Tech in a game that should have never been so high scoring. Baylor has a great defensive mind at head coach now and I think they can scheme their way to making Texas work hard. Also, Texas lost their top receiver due to injury. My number here is in the upper 50's. Take the under. TOP Rated play.
10-24-20	Auburn v. Ole Miss OVER 63.5		35-28	Loss	-109	118 h 19 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Ole Miss is one of the best over teams in the country right now. Lane Kiffin's team was slowed down by the windy weather, a bunch of turnovers, and a really good Arkansas secondary last weekend. That made this total low enough to bet the over. Auburn's offense was better than the final score would indicate against South Carolina. It was their turnovers that really stopped them. Auburn averaged 5.8 yards per play. They are up against a much weaker defense in Ole Miss this week. The Ole Miss offense is the best offense Auburn has faced so far this year. While Auburn doesn't have a bad defense, it is clearly much weaker than it was a year ago. Take the over here.
10-24-20	Temple v. Memphis OVER 69		29-41	Win	100	118 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Over These two teams both rank in the top 15 in the country so far this year in tempo. Temple's defense has been a strength in recent years, but they lost nearly everything they had from a year ago. Memphis is going to score a lot of points on nearly everyone in this conference with their skill position talent and the tempo they play at on a consistent basis. Temple should be able to throw the ball on this Memphis secondary, especially if they are playing from behind. While this total is set at a high level, I had this one a few points higher. Look for a lot of points in this contest. Take the over.
10-17-20	North Texas v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 66		52-35	Win	100	124 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't particularly close. This team is absolutely flying up and down the field. Their offense is solid. They haven't scored in the red zone at the rate you would expect or they would have scored even more points. That should improve over time. North Texas' defense might be the worst in the country. They give up big gainers constantly. MTSU has been inconsistent on offense this year, but against this North Texas defense they should be able to move the ball and score easily. MTSU's defense is very weak against the run, and that is the strength of the North Texas offense. I made this total in the low 70's, so I like the value here. Take the over.
10-17-20	Virginia v. Wake Forest OVER 57.5		23-40	Win	100	25 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Wake Forest plays extremely fast. They want their game to be a shootout, and they have been pretty good at forcing those shootouts. Wake Forest has a good quarterback in Hartman and they have enough skill position players to give Virginia some trouble. The Cavs secondary isn't what it was a couple years ago. Virginia's starting quarterback is questionable here, and we may well see the backup here. That is a big reason why this total has moved down. I wouldn't have bet this game over the total at the opening line, but after the substantial drop this one is too good of a price for me to pass up. Virginia has sped up their pace of play this year. We have two teams ranked in the top 14 in tempo out of all the teams playing thus far this season. We have seen a lot of higher scoring games in college football this year, and a number this low in a Wake Forest game is an over bet for me unless they are playing an elite defense. They aren't in this one. Take the over.
10-17-20	Duke v. NC State OVER 59		20-31	Loss	-108	24 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Duke is playing 2.5 seconds faster between snaps than they were a year ago. We have seen a couple high scoring games from the Blue Devils in their last two contests. I think we will see another one here. Chase Brice is being more aggressive with the football. That can be good for the over because he throws pick sixes, and it can be good because Duke is getting more big plays than they did a year ago. These teams have given up 23 and 24 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. Both offenses rank in the top ten in explosive plays. We should see tempo and plenty of big gainers. The weather looks good in this one, and I had this one projected several points higher. Take the over.
10-17-20	Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 64		7-12	Win	100	50 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather forecast here plays a large role in me taking the under. Sustained winds of 22 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are in the forecast for South Bend. That kind of weather really changes the game, and makes both offenses more predictable. In the long run, that kind of weather has been great for under bettors. Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo, so we shouldn't see too many possessions here. The Louisville defense has been bad this year, and I do think Notre Dame will score a decent amount of points here. Notre Dame's defense is pretty good, and Louisville should be more one dimensional than normal here. Take the under.
10-17-20	Liberty v. Syracuse OVER 53.5		38-21	Win	100	22 h 33 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Liberty Flames have a very good quarterback in Malik Willis. Willis is an excellent runner who can really put pressure on a defense with his dual threat abilities. The Syracuse defense wasn't very good to start with, and now they are without star safety Andre Cisco. Syracuse gave up more than 600 yards last week against Duke. I think Liberty will move the ball quite a bit here. Liberty's defensive numbers look pretty good this year, but you have to consider who they have played against. The Flames have faced Western Kentucky, FIU, UL Monroe, and an FCS team. Those are terrible offensive teams. Syracuse is bad offensively as well, but they have much higher recruited talent than any of those other teams. They also play at a very fast tempo. This is a game played inside and with a total set at a low level. Given the pace these two teams play at, I like the value on the over. Take the over.
10-10-20	Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 59.5		2-24	Win	100	124 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats are going to do a lot of running the football this year. They ran all over Ole Miss, but the Mississippi State defense should be a tougher task. Kentucky will still get a lot of yards. I do expect it to take them time though. Look for Kentucky to try to keep the ball away from Mike Leach's air raid offense by controlling the time of possession here. Mississippi State has allowed only 1.91 yards per carry so far this year. The offense looked amazing against LSU, but it stumbled badly against Arkansas. The Kentucky defense is a veteran group and with an 0-2 record coming into this one, we should get a strong effort from Kentucky. Take the under here.
10-10-20	Kansas State v. TCU UNDER 55.5		21-14	Win	100	121 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The highest total in a game between these two teams in the last four years has been a combined score of 41 points. TCU's defense hasn't looked good in the first two games of the season, but Patterson is a defensive-minded coach and this group has a lot of talent. I would expect much better results going forward. Kansas State has a QB injury with Skylar Thompson questionable here. Even if he does play I like this under. The Wildcats play very slowly and they won't change that style no matter what. TCU's offense isn't very efficient, and Kansas State's isn't either. Take the under.
10-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Boston College UNDER 43.5		30-31	Loss	-110	26 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Boston College Eagles host the Pitt Panthers on Saturday afternoon. I've really been impressed with this Boston College defense under new coach Jeff Hafley. He was a defensive coordinator at Ohio State and did a great job with that Buckeyes defense. He is already helping this Eagles defense immensely. Pitt has a top five defense in the country. Rashad Weaver is one of the best pass rushers in the country. The Panthers rank 3rd in the nation in yards per carry allowed (1.98). The weather in this game should be helpful. Sustained winds of about 20 mph are in the forecast with gusts to 25 or 30 mph. That is enough to change the game, especially since the winds are forecast to be blowing side to side in the stadium rather than at the back of either team. Both of these teams prefer to throw rather than run, but the weather will make it more difficult. Both teams have really struggled to get any running game going. I expect a defensive battle here. Take the under.
10-10-20	Central Arkansas v. Arkansas State UNDER 66		27-50	Loss	-110	75 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This game is set for Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The weather forecast for here looks very bleak. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There is also a 50% chance of rain through the day. Arkansas State doesn't have a good defense, but they are stepping down in class to play Central Arkansas instead of Memphis, Kansas State, or a good Coastal Carolina offense. Arkansas State is more than a two touchdown favorite here. The Red Wolves and the Bears of Central Arkansas are very likely to play more conservatively with this kind of weather. It would be very hard to throw the football very often with winds blowing side to side at 20-35 mph here. The run defenses aren't very good, but if they know what is coming it should help quite a bit. Totals set this high in weather games have been great under bets over the years. Take the under here.
10-10-20	UL-Monroe v. Liberty OVER 58		7-40	Loss	-110	116 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Liberty Flames are expected to have Malik Willis back for this one. He is a star quarterback who can do it all. ULM's defense has already allowed 21 plays of 20 yards or more, and Liberty will get a lot of big gainers in this one as well. Liberty pushes the tempo, and they'll be playing in the lead here. ULM will have no choice but to pick up the pace. ULM showed some offensive strength finally last weekend against a decent Georgia Southern defense. Liberty is very weak defensively, and ULM should be able to produce enough offensively here, especially since they should get some garbage time points. Take the over.
10-10-20	Virginia Tech v. North Carolina OVER 57		45-56	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Carolina Tar Heels offense hasn't been very good so far this year, but this offense has too much talent to struggle all season. Sam Howell is one of the better quarterbacks in the nation. He has a good offensive line and very good receivers around him as well. Virginia Tech's running game has really impressed me so far this year. The Hokies are averaging a whopping 7.01 ypc through their first two games. I certainly don't expect anything like that in this game, but the Hokies offensive line has been great in run blocking. North Carolina's defense hasn't been tested by a team that has any semblance of a running game. There is some rain in the forecast for this one which has made the total go down a few points, but the projected wind is 4 mph. Rain without wind is a neutral for the total. There are numerous injuries and COVID related absences in the secondary for both teams. That could lead to some big plays for both teams. Hendon Hooker is expected to play for Virginia Tech here, and he is their top option at quarterback. Take the over.
10-08-20	Tulane v. Houston OVER 59		31-49	Win	100	77 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tulane Green Wave have played faster this year. They will still run the football early and often, but I think that will help them against a Houston Cougars defense that should be weak against the run this year. Tulane's uptempo run game should get yards in bunches here. Houston has yet to play a game, but Dana Holgorsen has talked about wanting to play quickly. The Cougars have improved weapons at the skill positions around Clayton Tune this season. Tulane has yet to play against a really good offense. I think the Tulane secondary can be beaten. These two put up 69 points last year. I had this number several points higher than the current posted total. Take the over.
10-03-20	Southern Miss v. North Texas OVER 71.5		41-31	Win	100	25 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the country in tempo so far this year, and it isn't very close. North Texas coach Seth Littrell took over the offense this year and he said they wanted to go fast. He wasn't kidding. North Texas has a good spread offense with the ability to run or throw. The Mean Green are averaging 7.16 yards per play this year (9th in the country so far). Southern Miss allowed 66 points in an embarrassing loss to Tulane last week. I'm not expecting that kind of number allowed here, but this Southern Miss defense is allowing all kinds of big plays. They have already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Southern Miss does have a good passing attack. I expect them to be able to move the ball against a North Texas defense that is one of the worst in the country. North Texas gave up 65 points to SMU. Southern Miss definitely isn't SMU, but the Golden Eagles should be able to throw it around here too. The pace should be there the whole way. Yes, this is a very high total, but my numbers put this game reaching into the upper 70's. Take the over.
10-03-20	Ole Miss v. Kentucky OVER 57.5		42-41	Win	100	120 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Ole Miss offense is going to play extremely fast under Lane Kiffin this year. Ole Miss gashed a really solid Florida defense this past weekend. They had 7 plays of 30 yards or more. Amazing. Kentucky has a pretty good defense, but I don't think they'll shut down Ole Miss either. The Rebels have a lot of playmakers at the skill positions on offense and they'll be put in a good position to succeed. Kentucky's offensive line is much better than the Ole Miss defensive front. I would expect Kentucky to have a much easier time moving the ball than they did last week against Auburn's defense. Take the over.
10-03-20	Texas Tech v. Kansas State UNDER 64		21-31	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats put up a big number last week, but that was largely due to Oklahoma's mistakes. Kansas State only had 10 first downs in that contest. Kansas State is playing at the third slowest pace of any team currently playing in college football. This team wants to run the ball and use up the clock. They should want to do that even more than normal here to keep Alan Bowman and this Texas Tech offense off the field. Texas Tech still plays quickly on offense, but they aren't quite as fast as they were a few years ago. The Red Raiders offense is far less efficient as well. They are only 23rd out of 72 teams in the country in yards per play on the year. Last week's game against Texas was misleading from a totals standpoint. Texas Tech only gained 5.8 yards per play and allowed just 5.3 yards per play against Texas. The last two years the meetings between these two teams have stayed well under this posted total. It isn't easy taking an under in a Texas Tech game, but I think Kansas State will control the tempo here. Take the under.
10-03-20	UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5		13-21	Loss	-110	18 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners have played much quicker this year than they did a year ago. UTSA averaged 25.79 seconds between snaps last year, but they are averaging only 22.35 seconds between snaps this year. UTSA also only averaged 5.06 yards per play last season, but they are at 5.86 yards per play this year. Their running game has had quite a bit of success in the early going. UAB is also playing a little more than a second quicker this year. The Blazers quarterback for this one is Bryson Lucero, who had a big game last week against UAB. I think he gives the team more big play ability through the air than Johnston does. UTSA has a very weak defense. They are unlikely to be able to slow down UAB here. While UAB does have a good pass defense, their run defense has been shaky this season. Look for UTSA to be able to break some big gainers in the running game. Take the over.
10-03-20	Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 55		21-27	Win	100	116 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I see West Virginia as an under team with their strong defensive front and weak offensive line. The Mountaineers don't push the tempo like most in the Big 12 do either. Baylor looks like they were great offensively against Kansas if you just look at the final score, but that was primarily special teams greatness against a terrible Kansas kick coverage team. Baylor's YPP was a weak 5.25 against a bad Kansas defense. Coach Aranda is obviously a defensive guy and Baylor should be pretty good on defense. The Mountaineers defense is one of the best in the Big 12. This one is several points too high. Take the under.
09-26-20	Tennessee v. South Carolina UNDER 48		31-27	Loss	-110	124 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year. South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury. Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game.
09-26-20	Duke v. Virginia UNDER 46.5		20-38	Loss	-110	19 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern. Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. Look for a tight low scoring game. Take the under.
09-26-20	West Virginia v. Oklahoma State UNDER 54		13-27	Win	100	120 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor. Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%. The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high. Take the under.
09-26-20	Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 44		37-34	Loss	-105	16 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary. Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here. In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12. Take the under here.
09-26-20	Georgia Tech v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5		20-37	Loss	-105	15 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down. Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game. Take the under.
09-19-20	Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66		7-16	Loss	-110	16 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I expect really big things from the Oklahoma State offense this year. The Cowboys were very good offensively last year, but I expect them to take the next step to being elite on offense this year as Spencer Sanders improves in his sophomore season at quarterback. Oklahoma State has who I believe is the best running back in the country in Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has a top 3 or 4 group of wide receivers. The Cowboys want to play fast and they should be able to get plays in large bunches against a Tulsa defense that is going to be very weak this season. Tulsa's defense hasn't been very good in recent seasons, but they lost their top three defenders from last year's team. Tulsa's secondary is a mess, and Oklahoma State should be able to take advantage. Tulsa's offense is improved this year. With Smith at quarterback, Phillip Montgomery can actually run the type of offense he's been wanting to run for the last few years. Their pace will be extremely quick. No bad weather is in the area, and with the tempo this will be played at I expect a very high scoring game. Take the over.
09-12-20	Charlotte v. Appalachian State OVER 59.5		20-35	Loss	-110	22 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Appalachian State Mountaineers have a veteran offense led by Zac Thomas at quarterback. They have a deep group of running backs and a good offensive line as well. I expect App State to be a balanced and very strong offense this year. Appalachian State lost all 3 linebackers from last year, and all three of them were stars. They return just 5 starters on defense. The Mountaineers won't be bad defensively, but they are a clear step down from a year ago. Charlotte returns a bunch of production on offense. Reynolds is a really underrated quarterback for this team. They have the offensive line to run on most teams. The 49ers have talked about playing a bit faster this year as well. The 49ers defense isn't good enough to consistently slow down App State. The 49ers lost their top defensive lineman from last year. These two teams met last year and the final score was 56-41 App State. Do I think we see something like that again? No I don't. However, they don't have to get even close to that high scoring to cash the over here. Rain is expected here, but without wind I don't see rain as a negative, especially with two teams with great running games. Take the over.
01-03-20	Ohio v. Nevada OVER 58.5		30-21	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Ohio Bobcats played in 7 games this year that reached at least 61 points. Ohio is a big play offense, and the Bobcats defense is no longer the strength it was a few years ago. Ohio is 87th in yards per play allowed this year, and that was playing an extremely easy schedule. The MAC has many very bad offensive teams. Nevada has gotten a bit healthier in the last few weeks. Their offense should be able to break some big plays against Ohio. The Wolf Pack passing attack improved in the last couple weeks with Carson Strong airing it out quite a bit. Ohio has a star quarterback in Nathan Rourke. The Bobcats averaged 6.7 yards per play (11th in the nation) this year. It would be pretty surprising if Nevada can do much of anything to slow down Ohio's offense. Nevada is 106th in opponent QBR and Rourke should make this Nevada secondary look bad. The weather looks good for this one and this fits a system of two teams with less than 65% wins straight up going 59% over the posted total in the last 15 years in bowl season. Take the over.
01-01-20	Michigan v. Alabama OVER 58		16-35	Loss	-110	19 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Michigan Wolverines offense got quite a bit better late in the season. During the Penn State game it seemed something finally clicked for Shea Patterson and this group. The new faster paced offense is better than their previous pro style slow paced offense. The Alabama defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons. The Crimson Tide allowed 48 points against Auburn. They also allowed 23 to South Carolina and 31 to Ole Miss. Alabama's offense might be without Tua, but they still have all kinds of playmakers. The Alabama wide receivers will be the best group of receivers Michigan has seen all year. The Crimson Tide excel in getting big plays. While the Michigan defense is good, they were moved on easily by the best teams they played this year. Wisconsin rolled to 35 points and Ohio State racked up 56 points. Conditions look good here so weather shouldn't be a factor. Look for both teams to get to the end zone pretty often in this contest. Take the over.
12-31-19	Kansas State v. Navy UNDER 53.5		17-20	Win	100	21 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Navy Midshipmen take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Liberty bowl on Tuesday. Navy looked great in their final regular season game against Army. This Midshipmen team is much improved in every way compared to a year ago. What is most improved? The Navy defense. Navy ranks 14th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They drastically cut down on the explosive plays they gave up. Kansas State's Chris Klieman saw the triple option a lot in his time in FCS football with North Dakota State. I would expect his coaching staff to do a good preparing his defense for the tough task of slowing down Navy. Navy will get their yards, but I don't think it will come all that easily. Kansas State had only 48 plays of 20 yards or more (104th in the nation). That was playing against a bunch of bad defenses in the Big 12. The Wildcats are not a big play offense. Kansas State ranks 127th in pace of play and Navy ranks 117th. Navy runs the ball 88% of the time on offense and Kansas State runs it on 64% of their plays. A lot of moving clock here. Take the under.
12-31-19	Kentucky v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47		37-30	Loss	-110	17 h 25 m	Show

12-28-19	Memphis v. Penn State UNDER 60.5		39-53	Loss	-110	12 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Memphis Tigers offense is explosive. No one can deny that the Tigers have big play ability at all times. Memphis isn't accustomed to playing a defense as good as Penn State though. The Tigers played the 71st toughest strength of schedule according to Sagarin. The best defense they went up against this year was Temple. Penn State will now clearly be the best defense Memphis has gone up against. Penn State ranks 1st in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Memphis is accustomed to getting some big gainers on the ground, and I don't think they'll get many of them here. Brady White is a good quarterback, but he hasn't been great against the best defenses he has faced in his career. The Penn State offense ranks only 58th in yards per play so far this year. They have been very inconsistent this year. Memphis' defense isn't a major strength by any means, but they aren't the weakness they were in past seasons. The Tigers are 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Both of these teams play at about an average pace. This is a high total for a game involving an excellent defense and two teams who play at an average pace. Take the under here.
12-27-19	USC v. Iowa OVER 51.5		24-49	Win	100	21 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a team I've backed many times for unders in recent years, but I'll be on the over in this game. USC has been a very good over team, and I think this number is set a little low. Iowa plays in the Big Ten West. To say that there aren't good quarterbacks in the Big Ten West is an understatement. Truthfully, there aren't any good passing attacks. Iowa's seccondary is good, but they aren't as good as the numbers on the stat sheet will tell you. Let's take a look at some of the opponents they have faced. They faced Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, Purdue (without their QB and Rondale Moore), Northwestern (yikes), MTSU, Illinois, and Nebraska (Martinez isn't good). Even the good teams they played this year aren't that good through the air (Wisconsin and Michigan for example). Iowa actually gave up 400 plus yards 3 times (Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota). Their defense is good but not great. USC has three guys projected to be first round draft picks at wide receiver. Slovis is an excellent quarterback. Graham Harrell is an excellent offensive coordinator and I expect USC to be well prepared offensively. Iowa also isn't accustomed to facing defenses as weak as USC's defense. The Trojans are banged up in the secondary, and their run defense is really bad to start with. USC only allowed less than 20 points twice this year. The Trojans don't have the pass rush needed to make Iowa uncomfortable. The weather shouldn't play a role here in San Diego. The Hawkeyes have a good quarterback in Stanley and I think he makes some big plays here. Slovis and his wide receivers should connect on some big gainers. Iowa isn't likely to end up in a low scoring game like they would against most of their Big Ten West opponents. Take the over.
12-21-19	SMU v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 69.5		28-52	Loss	-110	24 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This game is being played in Boca Raton (at Florida Atlantic). The weather here should be factor. Winds of 20 mph with higher gusts are forecast for gametime here. I wouldn't typically want to play an under with these two teams, but with this high of a number and the weather factor- I'm taking the under. Both of these teams are more explosive through the air than on the ground. With high winds like this it should limit the downfield passing attacks some. I would expect to see some more running of the football than most would expect, and both rushing defenses are pretty strong. With more running plays the clock keeps moving which is clearly a plus for the under. There are numerous very strong systems for high wind unders with a high posted total. I'll go with the systems here. Take the under.

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