*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best secondary in the MAC. Eastern Michigan will give teams who want to air it out often a hard time this year. Eastern Michigan is weak in the front seven though. Kyle Rachwal was the heart and soul of the linebackers and he is gone after racking up 127 tackles last year. The defensive tackles aren't very good against the run. That's important in this game.

Coastal Carolina is all about the run. The Chanticleers ran it on 66% of their offensive plays last year, and they might run it even more this year. They have some impressive talent at running back, and they have several guys who will see the field at that position. Look for them to have success breaking some big plays here.

Eastern Michigan's offense should be improved this year. The Eagles should be more balanced with a good athlete at quarterback in Mike Glass. The Coastal Carolina defense was horrible last year. They allowed 7.30 yards per play last year. They allowed a whopping 82 plays of 20 yards or more. Eastern Michigan should be able to move it consistently here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kendal Briles is the new offensive coordinator at Florida State. At Houston, Briles' offense was easily the fastest pace team in the nation. Briles has been stressing pushing the tempo ever since he got to Florida State. 

The Seminoles offense has too many talented players at the skill positions to not improve a lot in this new system. The OLine is still the weakness, but Briles should be able to draw up better plays and get the ball out quicker. 

Boise State isn't as strong in the secondary as many years, and I think the Seminoles will break some big plays. 

Boise State's offense typically moves at a normal tempo, and I don't think they will slow the game down too much here. The Broncos still have playmakers on the offensive end, and this Florida State defense will have to adjust to being on the field more with the offense playing at such a quick tempo.

This game was moved to Tallahassee and will start at noon. The hurricane winds shouldn't reach here until at least Sunday, and the current forecast calls for winds of only 6 mph during this game. 

With the tempo this game will be played at, I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes play at an extremely fast pace under Sean Lewis. He was an assistant under Dino Babers, and he'll keep speeding this team up. Woody Barrett returns for another year at quarterback, and I think he is a really good fit for this offense. Barrett can run or throw, and the receivers are very solid for the Golden Flashes.

Kent State's defense gives up loads of big plays. The Golden Flashes allowed a whopping 42 plays of 30 yards or more last year. They won't be good this year either, and Arizona State still has some big play guys on offense.

Arizona State lost Manny Wilkins, but I really like Jayden Daniels. Daniels might struggle against top defenses as a freshman, but this is a great opportunity for him. Eno Benjamin is a great running back, and he should have a huge game against this Kent State defense. 

I would expect the pace here to be pretty quick, and the explosive plays from Arizona State should come often. Kent State's offense will be much improved this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats will look totally different this year. Jake Spavital is an offensive minded coach who wants to play uptempo. He brought in Bob Stitt, who is known as a mastermind of the fly sweep and many other unique offensive formations. Stitt is a guy who coaches turned to as they looked for innovation in the spread formation. 

Look for Texas State to go 4 or 5 wide often and use a lot of motion and quick passes. They won't substitute often because they really want to push the pace. While the Bobcats aren't great on offense right now, I think they can do enough here against Texas A&M.

The Aggies have a huge advantage offensively vs. an undersized Texas State defensive front. Look for plenty of big gainers from the Aggies offense led by Kellen Mond. 

With the tempo being at an extreme and the weather looking favorable here, I think this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats had a terrific season. Kentucky is led by their great defense. Kentucky's defense ranks 16th in the nation adjusted for strength of schedule. The Wildcats have a future NFL linebacker in Josh Allen. He is likely the best player on the field here, and I expect him to give Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley a hard time. Kentucky's pass rush is excellent and Penn State has struggled in protection at times this year.

The Kentucky offense is all about the run. Snell is a good running back, but it is hard to move the ball against a quality defense when you don't any other threats. Kentucky's passing game is very weak. Penn State will be looking to try to make Kentucky beat them through the air. The Wildcats run the ball on about 64% of their plays from scrimmage, and they play at a very slow pace.

Six of Kentucky's last nine games finished with a combined point total of 35 points or less. Penn State has seen four of their last seven games finish at 41 points combined or less. 

Both teams are great at preventing big plays. I expect a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Utah Utes are somewhat similar in that the strength of their defense is the defensive line. Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Whittingham are defensive-minded coaches. Both offensive lines have allowed a lot of tackles for a loss (NW 52nd best and Utah 80th). Utah is 7th in tackles for a loss on defense and NW is 70th. 

Both of these teams have done a good job preventing explosive plays. Both teams have allowed only 20 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Utah is 73rd in the country in plays of 30 yards or more and Northwestern is 117th. Northwestern is 43rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed and Utah is 25th. The two offenses are 62nd and 79th on 3rd down. 

Northwestern is 124th out of 130 in yards per play. This Wildcats offense just isn't any good. Clayton Thorson doesn't have enough weapons around him, and the offensive line is weak. This Utah defensive line is going to give them problems.

Utah will be without their two best playmakers in Britain Covey (WR) and Zack Moss (RB) here. Tyler Huntley is expected to play some at QB after being injured the last few games, but he may not start. 

I see both teams having to work hard to get anything on offense, and these defenses have been great at forcing field goals instead of allowing touchdowns in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are very good at turning games into sloppy low scoring games. How good? Their last seven games of the season all finished with a combined score of 38 points or lower. Four of their last six games finished with 28 points or less. 

The Spartans have an excellent defense and a terrible offense. Michigan State ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. The Spartans is 13th in yards per play allowed. 

Oregon had a lot of high scoring games this year, but this is the best defense they have faced. They also aren't accustomed to teams who play at a very slow tempo as Michigan State does. 

The weather should help here. Santa Clara's Levi's Stadium is known as a nice under field because of the grass and conditions. The wind is expected to be blowing at around 20 mph during the middle of this game. That's a clear plus for the under with it making it harder to get big plays in the passing game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two excellent defenses. Clemson is first in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks eighth in the country in yards per play allowed. 

Clemson's defensive line is without one starter here in Dexter Lawrence, but I still expect them to be too much for this Notre Dame offensive front. Notre Dame has been acceptable in pass blocking this year, but they have a very hard task ahead of them to keep the pocket clean here. Clemson's Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in the country in my opinion, and I expect this Tigers defense to have a lot of different looks ready. The secondary was good most of the year, though they did have a couple slip ups. I expect them to get a lot of help from the pass rush. It's also important to keep in mind that Ian Book doesn't have much experience, and he hasn't played many good defenses yet. That changes here.

Trevor Lawrence is a really talented quarterback, but he's a freshman and he hasn't faced defensive challenges very often yet. Clemson's run game isn't likely to be able to dominate against this Notre Dame defensive front. Clemson hasn't had a great downfield passing game this year. 

Both of these defenses have been excellent at preventing big plays. That can make scoring take a lot longer, and it increases the likelihood of field goals instead of touchdowns. 

Two great defensive coordinators here and two very young quarterbacks. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers meet in a rematch of last year's bowl game. Wisconsin won that game 34-24 because of a rare great passing game for the offense. Wisconsin will be without Alex Hornibrook for this game due to a concussion. That makes Coan the starting quarterback. He has thrown a lot of very safe short passes in his time under center. There isn't a big threat of the deep ball. 

Wisconsin is good at running the ball, but Miami is 11th in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Hurricanes are very strong in the front seven. Taylor will get his yards here, but I don't think they will come as easy as they do in most games. Especially with Miami knowing there isn't much of a passing threat.

Miami's quarterback situation isn't good at all. The Hurricanes have the 112th ranked passing attack in the country. Wisconsin's defense will likely dare Miami to beat them with the passing game.

Both defenses have been good at not giving up big plays. They both rank in the top 30 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Both offensive are in the bottom half of the country at getting explosive plays.

This game is played at Yankee Stadium in late December. The weather could help the under here as well with cold weather and possible winds.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here looks significant. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of about 28 mph with gusts to 40 or 45 mph during this game. There is also a 50% chance of rain.

That kind of weather changes a game significantly. Most defenses fair much better against the run than they normally do in these conditions. Why? The opposing offense is more predictable. 

FIU's offense is all about getting big plays in the passing game. Those will be much harder to come by with this weather. 

The FIU defense has done a great job keeping the opposition from breaking big plays. That's important against a Toledo offense that is capable of breaking big plays in the running game.

The pace that these two play at isn't very quick for a total set this high. FIU ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country. Toledo ranks 49th. Both teams will use a decent amount of time between the snaps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers and Northern Illinois Huskies meet in an early season bowl game in the Boca Raton Bowl. UAB is all about running the football and they take their time between snaps. They can use a bunch of clock getting down the field, and if they are forced to kick a field goal it really helps the under a lot. 

Northern Illinois is 129th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Huskies simply can't do much of anything on offense. Northern Illinois has been up against weak MAC defenses all year, and they still didn't have much success. 

On the other hand, Northern Illinois is a great defensive team. They rank third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That's important since UAB is going to run the ball so often here. Northern Illinois is a tremendous defensive front. They have 50 sacks this year, and they should be in the backfield a bunch. 

UAB's defensive front is very aggressive, and Northern Illinois often hurts themselves with big negative plays on first down. UAB can take advantage of that to put them in bad spots.

This looks like a very low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles rank 130th in the nation in pace of play. They are using about 33 seconds between plays. Georgia Southern is also running the ball on nearly 85% of their offensive plays. They can use up a ton of time getting down the field. 

Eastern Michigan's defense has had a long time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Southern. That has to be a positive. The more time you have to prepare for a unique offense, the more it helps the defense. Eastern Michigan also did a pretty good job slowing down Army's triple option. Army only averaged 4.0 yards per carry in their win over Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan's offense doesn't have much of a run game at all. They are left to try to throw the ball, but this offensive line is terrible in pass protection. Eastern Michigan often has a hard time recovering from these big negative plays on offense. 

A big key to this selection is the ability of both teams to prevent big plays. Georgia Southern allowed only 17 plays of 30 yards or more this year (12th best in the nation). Eastern Michigan allowed only 18 plays of 30 yards or more (20th best in the country). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense has really impressed me in the last couple seasons. This is a very well-coached unit. Fresno State ranks 19th in yards per play allowed. They also rank as a top 12 defense against the pass. 

Arizona State's passing attack takes a big hit with N'Keal Harry sitting this game out. I expect the Sun Devils to rely more on the ground. While they are likely to get some yards here, I don't think it will come all that easy. Fresno State knows the Sun Devils are without their star wideout and they'll be loading up the box more than normal.

The Fresno State offense hasn't been very good running the ball this year. They have been very good throwing the ball, but the Mountain West had some very weak pass defenses this year. I'm not convinced they'll tear up the Arizona State secondary as they have some other teams. 

I think Arizona State runs the ball much more than normal here and plays conservatively. Both teams play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns both have very solid offenses. These are both offenses that rely on the run, but they both get a lot of big gainers on offense as well.

Tulane has a whopping 36 plays of 30 yards or more (14th in the country) this season. Louisiana has been even better with an impressive 40 plays of 30 yards or more. That is ninth best in the country. How are the defenses when it comes to defending explosive plays? These two teams have allowed 34 and 33 plays of 30 yards or more, meaning both of them rank in the bottom 30 in the country in that category. There should be some big plays here.

Tulane found a good playmaker at quarterback in Justin McMillan. He has made good decisions in the option offense, and throws a decent ball as well. 

The Ragin' Cajuns defense was consistently allowing a bunch of yards and points this year. They allowed a whopping 6.39 yards per play. They only held one FBS team below 26 points. 

The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been great and they are balanced. They put up 42 points or more five times this year.

These are explosive offenses and this isn't a total that is all that high.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense put on a show last week against Michigan. That was the top ranked defense in the country before Ohio State put up 62 points and more than 500 yards on them last week. Last week wasn't the first week the Buckeyes offense has looked good though. The passing attack is excellent with Dwayne Haskins leading the way. Haskins has a rocket for an arm and he has quite a few good receiving options on the outside. The Buckeyes running game has improved some in recent weeks as well. 

Northwestern's offense has improved toward the end of the year. Bowser has given them at least some decent production in the backfield. This is a team that throws it around often though, and they'll throw it around against a weak Ohio State secondary here. Clayton Thorson is a solid quarterback, and I think he'll have a good game here.

Both of these teams push the tempo, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game. Ohio State absolutely needs to win big here and be impressive, so I think they'll have their foot to the floor the whole game. We should see a wide open playbook as the Buckeyes showed last weekend. The Buckeyes defense has been weak all year, and I see Northwestern scoring a decent amount here too.

This game is played on a fast track under a dome in Indianapolis which should help the scoring as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs know each other very well at this point. They played twice last year, and this will be their second meeting this year. The previous three meetings were all won by Boise State with the following scores: 28-17, 17-14, and 24-17. None of those games were even very close to this total. 

In a title game, the motivation level should be very high to start with, and you know how badly Fresno has to want to beat Boise State now. The higher the motivation level- long-term it is good for the under. 

There is a slight chance of snow showers during this game. If that does come to fruition it helps the under ever so slightly in my opinion. 

Boise State's defensive numbers on the year are disappointing for sure, but they have played much better of late. Boise State has a lot of talent on defense, and I think this group is better than the statistics say. Fresno State has an elite defense, and they are great at not giving up big plays. 

Both teams play much slower than an average team, and that clearly helps as well.

This one should be a great game, and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* This is the Conference USA title game, and we have two well-coached teams here. MTSU beat UAB 27-3 last week, though that game meant very little to UAB. 

This is the game that decides the Conference USA title, and I expect a strong effort from both teams. 

UAB is a very run-heavy team. The Blazers rank 115th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo as well, so they can really eat up the clock as they move down the field. UAB also has multiple injuries on the offensive line. If those guys play they are going to be less than 100 percent. AJ Erdely the team's starting QB, is dealing with a shoulder injury. He'll likely try to play through the pain. 

MTSU's defensive line dominated UAB's offensive line last weekend. The Blue Raiders defensive front has turned into one of the best in the conference. 

MTSU's offense is all about the passing game with Brent Stockstill at quarterback. UAB has the best pass defense in the conference. The Blazers are very experienced in the secondary and I expect them to be well-prepared for the Blue Raiders passing attack here.

The weather is a big plus for the under. The average of forecasts now calls for rain and winds of about 16-18 mph for this one. That makes MTSU run the ball more and they aren't efficient there. It should reduce the amount of explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-17 at home earlier this year. That was a regular season game, and this is the Sun Belt Conference title game. This game clearly means a lot to both teams.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a great rushing attack,  but Appalachian State's defensive front is very good. App State ranks first in the Sun Belt in yards per carry allowed this year. I think they'll do a good job once again against the Louisiana running attack.

Appalachian State has a good offense, but it isn't as dynamic as it was earlier this year. The Mountaineers lost star running back Jalen Moore to an injury, and that hurts the offense quite a bit. Thomas is a good quarterback, but Moore was the star of the show at running back.

Both teams play slowly. Louisiana ranks 87th in tempo and Appalachian State ranks 99th in the country in tempo. Both teams run the ball much more than the average team in the country, so there is a lot of moving clock when they play each other.

The weather here should be a factor. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 42 degrees with 13 mph winds and gusts of 20 mph or slightly higher. All forecasts are calling for a very high chance of rain as well. Cold rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have played 11 games this year. None of them have gone over this total. San Diego State excels at controlling the time of possession, running the play clock down and keeping their defense off the field. 

Hawaii is a big play offense, but San Diego State is good when it comes to not giving up big plays. The Hawaii defense has been much stronger against the run in recent weeks, which is important since San Diego State will be running the ball a lot here. 

This is a similar type of game to Hawaii/Army earlier in the year. Army runs it better than San Diego State though, and San Diego State has a better defense. I think we see a game in the 40's as San Diego State gets a lead and then runs the ball and eats up a bunch of the clock. Hawaii plays only at an average pace, and San Diego State plays very slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SMU has to win this game to become bowl eligible. Teams looking to become bowl eligible in their final game of the regular season have been strong trends toward the under. That certainly makes sense to me because as games means more it tends to help the under.

It has surprised me that SMU has actually been better on the defensive end than on offense this year. When Sonny Dykes took over, that isn't what you would expect. However, SMU has been winning games thanks to their defense. SMU's defensive numbers in the conference would make them a top 50 defense in the country. 

Tulsa is averaging a brutal 4.26 yards per play in the conference. Remember, this isn't a conference with many good defenses either. Tulsa is just that bad on offense. They have no passing game at all. 

SMU is all about the pass. The Mustangs have a very weak running attack. Ben Hicks and the passing game are solid, but Tulsa is much better against the pass than the run on defense.

The weather here helps the under also. Winds of 16 mph with gusts above 20 should make it harder to move the ball through the air.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over*  Louisiana Lafayette has a brilliant offense and a weak defense. The Ragin' Cajuns are 11th in the nation in yards per play. They are 107th in the nation in yards per play allowed. This is a team that has a whopping 35 plays of 30 yards or more so far this year. 

LA Monroe's offense has been a bit disappointing of late, but they tore up this LA Lafayette defense last year, and I think they'll have a lot of success here too. Monroe has had terrible turnover issues in the red zone this year, and with some normalization of those red zone numbers their offense should improve.

A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners were blasted last week at Western Kentucky. That was primarily because of a ridiculous turnover problem. UTEP's defense has actually gotten a lot better throughout the season. UTEP is doing a good job not giving up big plays. The Miners are 50th best in the country allowing only 46 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. UTEP's yards per play allowed has trended in the right direction inside conference play.

Southern Miss has been great on defense this year. The Golden Eagles are 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss has allowed only 29 plays of 20 yards or more, which is 5th best in the country.

The weather should play a role here too. Winds of about 20 mph are expected in El Paso for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday. This is a big rivalry game, and we've seen a bunch of lower scoring games when these two get together. 

Georgia Tech couldn't get anything going offensively last year in this matchup. Kirby Smart is a great defensive mind, and I would be surprised if Georgia Tech's triple option attack has a ton of success here. Georgia Tech's passing attack is terrible.

Both teams are very run heavy, and both teams move slowly. In fact, both rank in the bottom 12 in the country in terms of tempo.

A slow pace in a rivalry game with a lot of moving clock- I believe this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This number is a case where recency bias has allowed us to get a lower number than we should have on this game. Texas Tech is coming off a really poor offensive outing against Kansas State. The Kansas State secondary is solid though, and it is important to note that there were winds of 20-25 mph in that game. That helped slow down Texas Tech as well.

Baylor is coming off a couple low scoring games, but that was against Iowa State and TCU. Those are great defensive teams that are limited on offense. That isn't the type of opponent Baylor has in this game.

Baylor has allowed 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Texas Tech has allowed 33 plays of 30 yards or more this year. 

This one is played in AT&T Stadium, which is certainly good for the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* If you just look at these two teams from a statistical standpoint, this total looks about right. If you look at more of the outside factors, this total appears too high. Both of these teams are 5-6 and need a win here to get to a bowl game. The under trends are strong when one team is trying to reach a bowl game, and they are very strong when both teams are attempting to reach a bowl game.

In addition, the forecast calls for winds of 12 or 13 mph. That isn't enough to make a huge difference, but it does have a small effect on the game.

Thirdly, this is a very hard fought rivalry. The winner of this game gets the Old Oaken Bucket. It's one of the best rivalry trophies in sports. 

These two badly want to beat each other, and there is a lot on the line. This total has been bet up to where I have to take the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have already wrapped up their side of the MAC. That means they can play wide open in this one. Bowling Green has nothing to play for here other than pride. The less the game means to both teams, the more helpful it is to an over in my opinion.

Buffalo's passing attack with Jackson and Johnson are too good for this Bowling Green secondary. Buffalo's defense looked bad last week and I think Bowling Green's uptempo offense can do enough here as well.

Both of these offenses have been bad in the red zone, and I think they are bound to have some positive regression toward the mean as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa has played some tremendous defense at home this year. The Hawkeyes are giving up 11 points per game at home. Iowa ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's run defense is a huge area of strength. Iowa ranks third in the nation in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Iowa is allowing only 3.08 ypc. That's important here since Nebraska is a team that relies on running the ball. The Cornhuskers average 5.49 ypc, but I don't see them being able to gash the Hawkeyes defense like they have to many others this year. Iowa's defense has only allowed 23 plays of 20 yards or more all year. That is second best in the country. 

Iowa's offense is much better in the passing game than the running game. Iowa is averaging only 3.97 yards per play on the year. Nebraska's secondary has been strong, but their run defense has been susceptible. I'm not sure Iowa has the running game to take advantage of that. 

The passing attacks will be impacted by the weather here. The weather calls for steady light rain and 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph during this game. That's a clear plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force triple option is hard to prepare for any time, but when you have a short week like Colorado State does here, it is especially difficult. Colorado State ranks 124th in the country in yards per play allowed. This is a defense that has struggled badly all season.

Collin Hill has done a decent job leading this offense since taking over at quarterback. Colorado State will throw it a lot, and Air Force's clear weakness on defense is their secondary. Air Force is 120th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

The weather looks fine for this one and I see both offenses moving the ball a lot.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores host the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday. Ole Miss has been able to turn just about all of their games into shootouts with their elite offense and very weak defense. 

Ole Miss has been so successful this year because they are a big play offense. Ole Miss has a whopping 48 plays of 30 yards or more on offense this year. That's because Jordan Ta'amu has a good deep ball, and Ole Miss has the best group of receivers in the SEC. 

Vanderbilt's offense has been better than most expected this year. Shurmur has been playing well at quarterback, and the Commodores still have a decent running game. Ole Miss has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or longer, which is the 15th most in the nation. 

Both teams air it out a lot, which helps since the incompletions also stop the clock. Ole Miss won 57-35 when these two played last year. I wouldn't expect that many points here, but I do think another back and forth affair is coming.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Over* East Carolina ranks fifth in the nation in pace of play. The Pirates are going to keep playing really fast. East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient this year though. Holton Ahlers is a guy the coaching staff is high on, and I expect him to improve over time. Ahlers will get a great chance here against a hapless defense.

The Pirates offense has been inefficient this year, but they are up against a UConn Huskies defense that is historically bad. UConn is allowing 8.88 yards per play (easily last in the country). Have they gotten better in conference play? Nope. They are allowing an even worse 9.26 yards per play in the AAC. They have allowed a mind-boggling 89 plays of 20 yards or more this year. 

The East Carolina defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. The Pirates have allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more. UConn's offense is middle of the road, but with a lot of possessions in this one they should put up enough in this situation.

Both offenses have had some bad luck in the red zone- which suggests that positive regression could be on the way especially when facing a weak defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force and Wyoming have both been a bit questionable on defense against the pass this year, but both of these teams excel at stopping the run. That works out for this selection since both offenses are virtually unable to throw the ball. 

Air Force has the 71st best rushing attack (ypc) in the country this year when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Wyoming ranks 17th at stopping the run. 

Wyoming has the 47th best rushing attack (ypc) in the country when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Air Force ranks 24th at stopping the run.

Both of these teams are much slower than the average team in terms of tempo. 

The weather forecast calls for 19 degrees with winds of 12-14 mph and about 4 inches of snow on Saturday. These conditions clearly help the under.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Play Top Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and UL Monroe Warhawks meet this Saturday and I expect a lot of points here.

Arkansas State and ULM rank first and second in the Sun Belt in tempo. There will be a bunch of possessions in this game. Both teams are big play offenses and both defenses have given up a lot of big plays throughout the season. 

The strength of the ULM offense is their rushing attack. They are 39th in the nation in yards per carry. Arkansas State's biggest defensive weakness is against the run. Arkansas State has a big edge in the passing game against a terrible ULM secondary. 

Last year these teams played to a 67-50 final score. Arkansas State had 781 yards compared to 590 for ULM. 

Ironically, both of these teams have scored 38 and 44 points in their last two games leading into this one. The offenses are clicking right now and the offenses should have the upper hand all the way in this one.

Take the over. Top Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped four points during the week, and it is low enough now that I am going to take the over. Northwestern ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats have locked up the Big Ten West. I would expect them to continue to play hard for Pat Fitzgerald though. 

There might have been some concerns about the weather from some, but the only real concern here is the cold temperature. A temperature around 23 degrees is expected, but winds of just 6 or 7 mph are in the forecast. In the past 10 years, games with a temperature of 30 degrees or lower and less than 10 mph winds have cashed to the over at a 58.5% rate.

Minnesota's defense is allowing a whopping 7.22 yards per play in the Big Ten. Northwestern's offense isn't very good, but they play fast and should be able to improve on their numbers from the year against this really weak defense. Minnesota's secondary has been very weak since Antoine Winfield Jr. has been out with an injury.

The Minnesota offense has been much better since Morgan started playing at QB. Minnesota is averaging 34.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB ranks 8th in the country in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss ranks 16th in yards per play allowed. Both of these defenses are much improved from a year ago. Both offenses play much slower than the average team. UAB is favored here and is likely to be winning and running the clock and taking their time in the second half.

Southern Miss has very little running game and UAB has a tremendous secondary. I think Southern Miss will have a lot of trouble scoring here.

UAB and Southern Miss are both very good at not giving up big chunks of yardage. There should be a lot of moving clock here and a limited amount of big plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. They have a veteran quarterback and the best wide receivers in the conference. Coastal Carolina's defense has been extremely weak all year. Coastal Carolina is allowing a whopping 8.48 yards per play in the Sun Belt. That's easily worst in the league. Coastal Carolina is worst in both pass defense and run defense in the league. 

Coastal Carolina's triple option should be able to move the ball against a weak Arkansas State run defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 5.52 yards per carry in the conference. Coastal Carolina is 34th in the nation in yards per play.

Arkansas State has allowed 28 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Coastal Carolina has allowed 30 plays of 30 yards or more. These are both among the worst in the nation. I see a lot of explosive plays back and forth here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Alabama offense is tremendous, but Mississippi State clearly has the best defense they have faced so far this year. LSU ranks 39th in yards per play allowed. Mississippi State ranks 5th in yards per play allowed. Alabama will get their points here,  but I think it will be tougher than it normally has for them this season.
Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald hasn't proven he is capable of doing much of anything through the air against any quality defenses this year. Alabama will load up the box and force him to beat them through the air. While Alabama's defensive stats don't look amazing compared to some years, when they are in a closer game where they are focused like we saw last week against LSU this unit is elite. 
Both teams play very slow. Mississippi State ranks 110th in pace of play and Alabama ranks 91st. A lot of running from both teams here helps the clock keep moving.
Alabama is less likely to be fully motivated and that lowers the odds of them running up the score here. They wanted to prove a point last week and they proved that point in Baton Rouge.
Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have changed the way they play this year. Charlotte was a fast paced team with a weak defense in the past. Now, the defense is the strength of this team and they are slowing things down and running the ball as much as possible to stay in the game. It has helped them stay competitive. They only allowed 7 points on defense against Tennessee last week.

Marshall has the best defense in Conference USA, and it would surprise me quite a bit if Charlotte is able to do much of anything on offense in this game. Marshall beat Charlotte 14-3 last year on the road.

I expect another low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* Troy has the best run defense in the Sun Belt Conference. Georgia Southern is going to run the ball consistently with their triple option attack. I expect Troy to be much better at stopping it than a normal team. Georgia Southern plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country as well. A lot of moving clock and long drives. If they are doing anything other than scoring a touchdown it is helping the under.

The Troy Trojans offense is a lot less explosive now that they are starting their backup quarterback. Troy has had some very low scoring games of late, and I think this one will trend the same way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over * The UMass defense is extremely weak. How bad are they? They are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in yards per carry allowed. UMass still pushes the pace on offense. They rank 28th in tempo in the country. 

I've been impressed by Ross Comis' play at quarterback. He hasn't been the big step down from Andrew Ford that I expected him to be. The Minutemen have continued to be excellent on offense.

BYU's offense hasn't played a defense this weak so far this season, and I expect them to break a lot of big gainers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have a good passing attack. Their problem has been an inability to run the football. Ohio State is 57th in the nation in yards per carry this year. Inside the Big Ten, Ohio State is averaging only 3.66 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Their offensive line has struggled in a big way. Michigan State ranks third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Michigan State just held Maryland to 0.9 yards per carry last game. That's important because before that game Maryland had been the best rushing attack in the Big Ten.

Ohio State's secondary has been a major problem this year, but I don't think Michigan State has the weapons needed to shred this secondary like some other opponents have. The Spartans are badly banged up at wide receiver. Michigan State will try to slow the game down as they always do. 

The weather here should play a role in this game. The weather forecast calls for winds of 18-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There is even a chance for some wind-blown snow showers in this one. That should limit Ohio State's passing attack and make both offenses more predictable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans have a new play caller in this game (Clay Helton) and they get to go against the weakest defense in the Pac 12. In fact, Oregon State ranks 127th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. USC is expected to get JT Daniels back for this game, and the USC passing game has a huge advantage here. USC's receivers should have a big day with a lot of open space and height advantages for them over the DB's. Oregon State is allowing a whopping 8.2 yards per play in Pac 12 action this season.

USC's defense has disappointed this year. Oregon State's offense has been much better than expected this season. Jake Luton came back last week for Oregon State and he threw for more than 300 yards against Colorado despite not playing any the first half. He gives the team a much better quarterback now. Look for Oregon State to get some big plays on offense as well. USC is without star linebacker Porter Gustin.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tulane is all about running the football, and that's a good thing against this USF defense. USF has a good secondary, but they are weak in the front seven. USF ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 42nd in the nation in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Look for Tulane to run the ball early and often in this option offense and get some big gainers here.

South Florida's offense plays at a very quick tempo. The Bulls rank 8th in the nation in pace of play. They are up against a Tulane defense that ranks 81st in defensive yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bulls should be able to move the ball well here. USF has a lot of speed on offense, and that should be hard for Tulane to defend.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UMass was involved in a low scoring game against UConn due to the weather last week. They are going to be involved in another game with pretty extreme weather here, and I have to take under this high of a number.

The average forecast for this game calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 55 or 60 mph. That kind of weather completely changes the game. In fact, 20 mph sustained winds have made the under hit at a little over 63% in CFB in the long term. In this one we get sustained winds of that amount and some ridiculous gusts. 

While neither defense is good- it is important to note that UMass is without star quarterback Andrew Ford. Also, both of these teams are much worse running the football than throwing it. If the weather forecasts are right, they'll have to run it more here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have a way of making everything high scoring. This is a really explosive offense with Jordan Ta'amu at the helm, but they also might have the worst defense in the SEC. 

South Carolina has moved to an uptempo offense. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of pace of play. That will mean a bunch of possessions for both offenses, and Ole Miss games have a lot of big plays both ways because of their strong offense and weak defense. 

The SEC doesn't normally see these shootouts, so the oddsmakers kept the total a little too low here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Texas A&M and Auburn meet on Saturday afternoon. Auburn has been a great under team so far this year, and I don't see that changing here. 

Texas A&M ranks 112th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies are trying to establish a run game more with Jimbo Fisher as their head coach. The problem for them here is Auburn's defensive line is tremendous, and they should get into the backfield often.

Auburn's offensive line is a major problem, and Texas A&M has been strong on the defensive front this year. Stidham isn't playing with any confidence. 

Auburn has forced every game this year into a low scoring battle, and Texas A&M wants a physical low scoring game as well. The styles of these teams should lead to a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* A lot of tempo should be expected here. These two teams rank 5th and 2nd out of 130 teams in the nation in terms of tempo.

Wake Forest's running game is the strength of their offense, and that is where they have a big edge here. Wake Forest's rushing attack ranks 24th in the nation compared to the Syracuse run defense of 87th. 

Syracuse is a balanced offense, and this Wake Forest defense has been very weak against both passing and running teams this year. Wake Forest is 115th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

The Syracuse defense is one that I have singled out as in line for regression especially since they have been very fortunate on third down so far this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final score was 64-43.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins offense is all about the running game. Maryland ranks third in the country in yards per carry this year, but they played a relatively soft schedule. Maryland still ranks 11th in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule played, but Michigan State's defense ranks 7th in rushing defense. The Spartans aren't likely to let Maryland just run the ball consistently. Maryland hasn't proven capable of moving it through the air against anyone decent this season.

Michigan State's offense is very weak right now. Their top two wide receivers from before the year are both out now. The Spartans rank 125th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. Maryland's defense ranks 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. 

Michigan State always plays slowly under Mark Dantonio, and Maryland is playing very slowly this year. In fact, Maryland's tempo in Big Ten play alone would rank them among the ten slowest paced teams in the entire country. 

The weather here is an added bonus. The average of 5 different forecasts I reviewed is 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That is enough to slow the passing games down some more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a bunch of points for a game between two teams with bad offenses. Bowling Green is 98th in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is 108th in the nation in yards per play. 

Both of these teams are very weak on defense, and that's why this game has gotten bet up, but I see another key factor in this game. The forecast calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the game moves on. That's a lot of wind for this high of a total. In the long run games with winds of 15 mph or greater in NCAA FB have gone under the total at about 57%. 

Bowling Green slowed their tempo down in their first game under Pelini as head coach as well. The Falcons are likely to continue to play a bit slower now, and I would expect some more running the football.

With the wind and this high of a total, I have to play the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange have two very good quarterbacks. NC State's defense isn't as good as their statistics would suggest. NC State's defense was exposed last week against Clemson, and I expect them to struggle the rest of the way. NC State's secondary is no better than mediocre, and they can be beaten deep by good wide receivers.

The Syracuse defense is in line for some major regression to the mean. Syracuse is only allowing opponents to convert on 24.76% on 3rd down. That isn't going to continue. Syracuse ranks 83rd in yards per play overall and 96th in ypc allowed. Why would a defense that can't stop the run be good on third downs? It's a perfect setup for regression and many more points allowed going forward for Syracuse. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas State's offense was disappointing in the non-conference, but they are going to score a bunch of points in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have the best quarterback in the conference in Hansen and they have a great group of wide receivers. Arkansas State also ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo. 

Louisiana-Lafayette ranks 14th in the nation in yards per play. The Ragin' Cajuns have some really talented skill position players, and they have been an explosive plays machine. Louisiana has 24 plays of 30 yards or more which is 11th most in the country. 

Both Arkansas State and Louisiana are playing faster inside the Sun Belt than they were in non-conference contests. Arkansas State is 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Louisiana is 121st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Fast-paced and big plays back and forth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears defense has been very good this year. Cal ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Cal is allowing opponents to convert on only 31.78% of their 3rd downs this year. The Bears should be able to slow down a Washington offense that isn't quite as dynamic as it was a couple years ago. 

Jake Browning's quarterback play has been very poor for Washington this year. They have scored TD's on only 51% of their trips into the red zone, and much of that has to do with Browning's poor decision making. 

Cal's offense has been a mess all year. The Bears have turned the ball over 20 times this season. Cal doesn't have any explosiveness either. Cal only has 7 plays of 30 yards or more all season, which is in the bottom 5 in the country.

As far as tempo- both teams have slowed their pace of play inside the conference. Chris Petersen has shown that he will play things conservatively if Washington gets a lead, and they are a double digit favorite here. 

This is a low total, but Washington has already played 3 games that have stayed under this total. Cal has played 4 games that have stayed under this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Houston ranks first in the nation in tempo. South Florida ranks seventh in the nation in tempo. Briles is a great offensive mind, and Houston's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Houston hasn't scored less than 41 points in a game all year. The Cougars are averaging 48.7 points per game this year. 

Houston has a very good running game. The Cougars are averaging 6.16 ypc this year. Houston is far better in the running game than most people realize. Why is that important? The way to beat South Florida's defense is on the ground with explosive runs. Houston should be able to do just that. 

South Florida is averaging 35.6 points per game this year. The Bulls have a lot of potential on the offensive end.

These are two very explosive offenses. Houston has 26 plays of 30 yards or more this year. South Florida has 24 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Tons of tempo and a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes are likely to either be without Laviska Shenault this weekend or he will be limited. Colorado needs Shenault healthy for later in the season because they are still in the Pac 12 South race. I would be surprised if they want to risk him playing with his turf toe injury in this one.

Oregon State is easily the worst team in the Pac 12. The Beavers are likely to be starting their third string quarterback (Colletto) in this one. Their first two quarterbacks are both injured. Colletto is seen as more of a runner, and his passing accuracy is a big question mark. Oregon State is averaging only 4.65 yards per play in Pac 12 action. 

Colorado's offense isn't even close to the same without Shenault. They can and will score quite a few on Oregon State, but they aren't nearly as explosive. Colorado will likely eat up more time in the process of scoring. Additionally, Mike MacIntyre isn't a guy who has typically run up the score on opponents. 

Both teams are playing significantly slower in recent weeks, likely because of their offensive injuries to key players.

The wind will be a factor here. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph are forecast during this game. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks are a great over team. UL Monroe is one of the worst defenses in the nation. They are 126th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Warhawks have what is arguably the worst pass defense in the nation. 

Texas State is mediocre defensively. The Bobcats offense is a weakness, but they have shown some very positive signs in recent weeks in the passing game, and I think they will be able to get it going against this UL Monroe pass defense. Texas State has scored 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. 

UL Monroe's offense should light up the scoreboard in the Sun Belt. Monroe has underachieved on offense so far this year. The Warhawks have only scored on 65% of their red zone trips, and they have turned the ball over 13 times. They just posted 45 points on Coastal Carolina and they will score a lot in this conference.

UL Monroe pushes the pace and I think they are likely to have the lead. That forces Texas State to keep the tempo going too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers host the Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game on Saturday. Both of these teams play relatively quickly, at 45th and 21st in tempo. They are both good offenses as well, but this number is extreme.

When adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Missouri ranks in the top 20 in the nation in rushing defense. Memphis is first in the nation in yards per carry, but the Tigers have feasted on terrible defenses on the ground. They won't be up against a weak defensive front this time.

Missouri has done most of their work in the air, but winds of 20 mph on Saturday will make it very tough to throw. 

Games with a high total with strong winds have multiple very strong systems on the under. I would have passed on this game without the wind, but I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This number is too high given the circumstances of this game. First of all, it is hard to say how Penn State will view this game. They have lost two straight games and their preseason hopes are now gone. How do they respond? I don't see that as a positive for the over.

Indiana has time and time again played tight games against high quality Big Ten opponents, they just haven't been able to get over the hump. Allen is a defensive-minded coach, and I think his defense will be well-prepared for this big home game against Penn State. 

Though both teams are playing a little bit fast, they are only at 41st and 43rd in pace of play, so it is nothing extreme. The Penn State defense has been excellent this year too. Penn State is 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a tough schedule as well, and this defense has looked very good even in losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. 

Indiana's offense hasn't been efficient. They are 93rd in the nation in yards per play. The Penn State offense doesn't have the same kind of explosive ability from the running back spot this year with Barkley gone.

I've gone with an average of 5 weather forecasts for this game, and they are calling for 19 mph sustained winds during this game. High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and the Akron Zips meet in a big rivalry game on Saturday in Kent. This one is for the Wagon Wheel trophy. 

Kent State and Akron are both very weak offensively. Kent State has allowed a ridiculous 29 sacks this year. That's worst in the country (130 teams). Akron has a good defensive line and they should be able to get in the backfield and put Kent State behind the chains here. 

The Akron offense ranks 119th in the country in yards per play. Akron is averaging only 3.36 yards per carry on the year. 

Kent State plays quickly, but they aren't efficient at all. Akron's offense severely lacks the big play potential. The Zips have only 6 plays of 30 yards or more all season.

Kent State's defense isn't very good, but this Akron defense is very good. The Zips are 37th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Weather should be an issue here. An average of five forecasts in the Kent area shows temperatures in the upper 40's with winds around 15 mph guesting to 20 mph, and a 50% chance of showers during this game. That's a big plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB Top Play Total of the WEEK* The Clemson Tigers offense is excellent with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. Lawrence is playing with a lot of confidence, and he has a lot of weapons around him. Clemson's coaching staff has talked about wanting to push the tempo even more than they are now. Clemson already ranks 34th in pace of play in the nation. They will push the pace here.

North Carolina State has a very good quarterback in Ryan Finley. Finley is the best quarterback Clemson has faced so far this year. What is Clemson's weakness? Clearly, it is their secondary. The Tigers looked really bad in the secondary against Texas A&M earlier this year, and the NC State passing game should exploit this weakness. 

NC State's defense ranks 66th in yards per play allowed. The Wolfpack are 16th in scoring defense. What does this mean? They are due for some serious regression to the mean. This NC State defense isn't nearly as good as they have looked so far this year. Clemson should move the ball easily here.

Both teams can exploit the other defenses weakness here. The pace will stay quick throughout. 

Take the over. TOP Total of the Week. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather for this game is set to be a big problem for both offenses. The average forecast between 5 different forecasts I looked at here calls for 48 degrees with average winds of 26 mph and gusts above 30 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain showers during this game. These conditions are about as drastic as you will see this time of the year, especially with those wind gusts.

Neither team is efficient at running the football, and with these conditions they will have to run it much more often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one originally wouldn't have made my card, but with the weather forecast here I have to take the under. An average of 5 weather forecasts I researched came up with 21 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There is a 30% chance of snow during this game as well.

Blindly taking unders with winds of 20mph or greater has hit at a rate higher than 60% in the past 10 years. 

This is a rivalry game where you would expect both teams to be very motivated, and in general that helps the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday. Maryland is extremely one-dimensional on offense. Maryland has to be able to run the football or they can't move the ball. Maryland ranks 10th in the nation in yards per carry, but they haven't gone against many really good defenses against the run. That all changes when they play against Iowa on Saturday. Iowa is 5th in the nation in ypc allowed at only 2.69. The Hawkeyes are always strong in the front seven on defense, and that is the case again this year.

The tempo for both teams points toward an under. Iowa ranks 105th out of 130 in terms of tempo. Maryland ranks 110th in tempo. What about how often they are running the ball? Maryland runs on 66.4% of their offensive plays. Iowa runs on 57% of their offensive plays. This will mean a lot of moving clock. 

The weather here could be a bonus. The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 20 mph during this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game I considered passing on because of injuries on the Wisconsin defensive side of the ball, but this number is too with all factors considered. 

Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow tempo. The Badgers rank in the bottom ten in terms of pace of play. Illinois ranks is right around the average when it comes to tempo.

The Illinois offense has been dreadful of late. They scored only 7 points last week against Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been only mediocre on defense this year.

The weather forecast here pushes me over the top on playing this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There are some very strong angles on betting unders with heavy wind, and this is a high total for a Wisconsin game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets don't have the same kind of offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They lost a star quarterback and running back in the last couple years. Toledo is only 48th in the nation in yards per play this year. Toledo has only 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far (that is 56th best in the country). Buffalo's defense has excelled at stopping the big plays too. Buffalo has allowed only 9 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Buffalo's offense relies pretty heavily on Tyree Jackson and big plays through the air. Jackson is a really good quarterback, but winds of 20 mph and rain showers are forecast here. That's a clear negative for this Buffalo offense, and I think they'll have to be more conservative in this one. 

High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

This is a key battle in the MAC- and one where both teams should be very motivated. That generally benefits the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal have previously been thought of as a great defensive team. A few years ago that was the case. This year they aren't good defensively. Stanford ranks 70th in the nation in yards per play, and they haven't played many great offenses. The Cardinal have also been very fortunate when it comes to red zone defense. Stanford has allowed a touchdown on only 40 percent of opponents drives into the red zone. That isn't going to continue all year long.

Arizona State's offense is solid. Wilkins has done a nice job at quarterback for them, and Harry is an elite wide receiver. Arizona State's offensive line has been very good this year, and that helps against a Stanford defense that is aggressive rushing the passer. 

Stanford's offense has been more explosive this year. They already have 14 plays of 30 yards or more. Bryce Love will likely play at least some here, though he isn't 100 percent. The Cardinal now have a more efficient passing game, and the Sun Devils defense is weak against the pass. 

The over is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 road games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado and USC are both moving relatively quickly on offense. USC's offense has improved as Daniels has gotten acclimated to this offense. He clearly has a lot of talent, and USC has some good skill position players around him.

Colorado's Montez is a very good veteran quarterback. This USC defense is only 58th in the country in yards per play allowed. They give up too many big plays and that should be an issue here.

Colorado's defense hasn't been tested by top notch offenses yet. USC should be able to get their offense going here.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense had trouble getting going early in the season. MTSU has a great quarterback in Brent Stockstill and with Ty Lee on the outside he has a very good wide receiver to get the ball to. I was very impressed with MTSU's offense last week. Marshall is an excellent defense (best in the conference), and MTSU put up 34 points and 420 yards on them. MTSU was shut down by Vanderbilt and Georgia in the early going, but they aren't going to be facing defenses of that caliber anytime soon. MTSU pushes the pace, and I see no reason to expect FIU to slow them down much here.

FIU has been much better on offense than I expected them to be. James Morgan has fit in very well at quarterback. Morgan is averaging 9.79 yards per pass attempt. Him getting the ball up the field so much has really allowed this running game to have more success as well. FIU is 23rd in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

Conference USA is well known for its high scoring affairs. The totals move downward here doesn't make any sense to me. I see a game with quite a bit of tempo and two quarterbacks playing well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have adopted a new style of offense this year. Bronco Mendenhall's team is running the ball early and often. That plays into the Miami defensive strength though. Miami is 7th in the nation allowing only 2.73 yards per carry, and their defensive line is stacked with talent. The Virginia offensive front isn't likely to be able to get much of a push here.

Miami is running the ball on 61% of their plays this year. Perry has done a good job at quarterback now, but the offense has slowed down tempo-wise. 

We should see a bunch of running clock in this game, and both defenses have been better at stopping the run than the offenses have at running the ball. The matchups appear to favor the defense.

I would expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of the WEEK* The UTSA Roadrunners have the worst offense in college football. UTSA just won 20-3 against Rice, but they had only 178 yards of offense in that game. Their two touchdowns were on drives of 31 yards and 3 yards. Rice turned the ball over 4 times, and UTSA was handed their points in that one. UTSA is last in yards per play in the country. There are even clear signs of regression for their offense when it comes to scoring. UTSA has scored on 100% of their red zone trips so far this year. That can't continue. They are near the bottom in allowing sacks, so that puts them behind the chains often. The lack of explosive plays from UTSA is ridiculous. They have only 2 plays of 30 yards or more in six games! 

Louisiana Tech ranks 69th in the country in yards per play. They have been inconsistent this year. LA Tech has also been fortunate in that they have scored on 100% of their red zone trips this year. A sign of regression.  LA Tech's defense has been good though. They are 47th in the nation in yards per play allowed. It's hard to imagine UTSA scoring very many at all here. 

UTSA has always been good defensively under Coach Wilson. UTSA is a very physical team and they allow only 3.45 yards per carry. I expect LA Tech to get the lead here and as they try to salt this one away later in the game, the UTSA defense should hold their own. 

Last year, LA Tech beat UTSA 20-6. I expect another defensive battle here. 

Take the under. TOP Play. CFB TOP Total of the Week

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have two of the bottom ten defenses in the nation. UL Monroe's offense has underachieved so far this year, but I expect them to put up some big numbers in Sun Belt action. UL Monroe has scored in the red zone only 58.33% of the time this year. That can't continue long term. That's a number that is due for some positive regression. This team has quite a few weapons and they have a speed advantage over the Coastal Carolina defense.

Coastal Carolina's offense has been much more efficient this year. Joe Moglia being back has really changed things for this team. The triple option has been really effective, and they are up against a terrible ULM defense here. ULM is 128th in the nation out of 130 teams in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up 7.41 yards per play. 

Coastal Carolina's defense is second worst in the nation allowing 6.81 yards per carry on the season. Both of these defenses give up explosive plays by the bunches. Look for a lot of long plays from scrimmage here.

The over is 20-6 in ULM's last 26 conference games. The over is 12-5 in Coastal's last 17 games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Denton, Texas isn't expected to be good at all for this game. A temperature in the mid 60's with winds of 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph and heavy rain are forecast for Saturday. That's some miserable weather for two teams that are reliant on the passing game. While the under is always helped by wind and rain, it is much more of a benefit when you catch a spot where teams are normally passing teams and they must try to get something going on the ground. That's the spot here. 

Both of these defenses have been better this year. Despite playing a weak schedule, Southern Miss is 114th in the nation in yards per carry, so if they have to run the ball it isn't likely to go very well for them. North Texas lost their star in Wilson from the backfield last year. The Mean Green are 94th in the nation in yards per carry. The poor weather would at least somewhat neutralize the best player on the field (Mason Fine QB for North Texas) as well. 

The sharp money is clearly on the under here, and I fully agree. This line is about where it should be without any weather issues. There are clear weather issues in this one- and with two teams reliant on throwing it around, that makes a big difference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State defenses have been dominating this year. Both are extremely strong on the defensive front. What's the weakness of these offenses? The offensive line. That should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable, and lead to a lot of negative plays. Both of these offenses struggle when they get behind the sticks. 

Auburn's offense is only averaging 5.42 yards per play, which is 91st best in the country. Their offensive line has been a huge problem this year. 

Mississippi State is reliant on the run game, and Auburn's defense is 10th in the country allowing only 2.75 yards per carry.

A defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host the Kentucky Wildcats in a big SEC showdown on Saturday night. 

Kentucky's defense ranks 14th best in the nation allowing only 4.46 yards per play. Kentucky is 5th in pass defense (yards per play allowed). 

Kentucky will slow the tempo down as much as possible. They rank 118th in tempo in the country of 130.

Texas A&M also moves slowly at 106th in the country in tempo. The Aggies defense is better than their numbers would indicate. Alabama racked up a bunch of yards on this team.

With both teams preferring to run, the clock should keep moving here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and the ULM Warhawks both move quickly. They both rank in the top 40 in the nation in tempo. 

Ole Miss takes a lot of deep shots in the passing game. They have some tremendous wide receivers who will have a big advantage in this game. Ole Miss has a whopping 26 plays of 30 yards or more in only five games so far this year. The Rebels will get a bunch of explosive plays against this weak ULM defense. ULM ranks 116th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed.

The Ole Miss defense is very weak as well. The Rebels rank 102nd in yards per play allowed, and they are allowing 38 points per game this season. ULM's offense has underachieved some this year, and I think we'll see them put up plenty of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense has been tremendous this year. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are giving up only 2.67 ypc (8th best in country). Iowa's offense sits at 72nd in the country in yards per play. Iowa is only 89th in yards per carry offensively this year. 

Minnesota ranks 120th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 3.63 yards per carry. They have suffered some serious injury problems at the running back spot. This Minnesota team doesn't have enough playmakers on offense to score much on good defense, and this is the best defense they have played yet by a large margin.

Both of these teams run the ball about 61% of the time on offense. Both teams rank among the 25 slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo. There will be a lot of running the ball and playing slowly, which will eat away at the clock here.

Both of the last two years this matchup has stayed well under the posted total. Winds of 10-12 mph are in forecast and that helps the under a bit as well.

It's a low number, but it's low for a reason.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan offense is a mess this year. The Chippewas are 128th in the country in yards per play on offense. They have a weak offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions on offense. Central Michigan has only 8 plays of 20 yards or more all season. 

Buffalo has a good quarterback in Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls have a very weak offensive line and a subpar rushing attack. 

As bad as the Central Michigan offense is, the defense has been great. They are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Their strong defensive line has a big edge in this game. Central Michigan should be able to get heat on Jackson in this game.

Buffalo is 32nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Bulls have a good pass rush and are a well-balanced defense.

The weather could play a role here. A 60% chance of rain is in the forecast and 10 mph winds. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Huskies and the BYU Cougars play a similar style of football. Both are very physical teams, and both prefer to run the football and use up the clock. There should be a lot of running clock in this one, and the defenses are the strengths of both teams.

BYU is 106th out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Washington is 101st in tempo. Both defenses have been elite at not giving up big plays this year. BYU has only allowed 4 plays of 30 yards or more in four contests. Washington has only allowed a single play of 30 yards or more in four contests. 

BYU wants to establish the run with Squally Canada, but Washington will likely feel good enough about their pass defense to commit a little extra help in the box here. 

Jake Browning has regressed at quarterback, and this BYU defense should do a good job holding their own on the defensive line.

The under is 6-0 in BYU's last 6 vs. a Pac 12 opponent. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 275 yards last game. A 27-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense will be much better with Book at quarterback now. Wimbush made too many mistakes and was just very inconsistent. 

This Notre Dame team is going to push the pace. Book talk about how much the coaching staff wanted him to push the pace last week, and he followed the directions well. Notre Dame ranks 21st in the nation in tempo.

Stanford is a much slower paced team, but they are an offense that has big play capability. The Cardinal have a much better passing attack than they have had in most years, and that gives them balance. 

This game finished 38-20 last year, and I see both offenses as better than last year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UTSA is second to last in the nation in yards per play so far this year. UTEP is 8th worst out of 130 teams. These are two really bad offenses. 

UTSA has been strong defensively for the past few years, and I expect them to be very good against the pass this year. UTEP doesn't have much of a running game.

The UTEP defense is improved from last year, and they aren't giving up as many big plays thus far. 

UTEP ranks 123rd out of 130 teams in the nation in tempo. Look for an ugly low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is very inconsistent, but their defense is very good. The Bulldogs actually played pretty well on defense last week against Kentucky. The strength of this Bulldogs defense is their defensive front. Florida is pretty reliant on the running game, and they are unlikely to have much success there.

Both of these teams are playing at a slower pace than average, and these are two strong defenses. The Florida offense hasn't been nearly as good as their points per game look. They have benefited from a bunch of short fields and special teams touchdowns. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense hasn't been up to par so far this year, but I expect them to get their ground game going as they almost always do. They have multiple solid options at quarterback.

Nevada has a great quarterback for their pass heavy system in Ty Gangi. I expect Nevada to put up some big numbers in MWC play this year. Nevada is averaging an impressive 6.54 yards per play this year, and they are 17th quickest in the country in terms of tempo.

Nevada is 87th in yards per play allowed and Air Force is 97th. 

When these teams met last year, Air Force won 45-42. It was no fluke that it was really high scoring either. Air Force had 591 yards offense and Nevada had 424 yards. 

I don't see any reason to expect things to change in this year's matchup. A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense has been a really nice surprise this year. With Thomas at quarterback, they seem to have found a guy who knows the system really well and can make the right decisions. Moore gives this team a really good running back with the ability to break one at any time. Appalachian State is 6th in the nation in yards per play this year. This offense showed what they can do in that impressive season opener against Penn State. 

South Alabama has decided to pick up the tempo this year. The Jaguars rank 42nd in the nation in tempo. They have gotten much better than expected quarterback play from Evan Orth. He threw for 360 yards on just 32 pass attempts against Memphis last week. 

The South Alabama defense is weak. They have allowed a bunch of big plays this year. South Alabama has given up 28 plays of 20 yards or more in the early going this year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

This number has been beaten down too far.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* It's hard to overstate how bad this UConn defense has been. UConn is dead last in the nation in every key defensive statistic. UConn is allowing a ridiculous 9.22 yards per play. They are allowing 7.97 yards per carry, which is easily worst in the nation. 

Cincinnati's defense is solid, but I think their defensive numbers look better than they truly are right now for a couple key reasons. They played one game (against Miami OH) in a driving rainstorm with 20mph. That makes the job a lot easier for the defense. Second, they played an Alabama A&M team that is awful. 

The Cincinnati offense has gotten better week by week, and they should move easily against UConn as everyone else has. UConn hasn't allowed less than 49 points in a game this year and that includes a game against Rhode Island (FCS school). 

David Pindell is now probable to play here, and the UConn offense is good enough that they should contribute enough here.

This number has gotten too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* Arizona State is 97th in the nation in yards per carry so far this year. They haven't been able to establish anything on the ground, and I don't see that changing here. The Sun Devils offensive line should be in for a long night against the Washington defensive front here. Washington is loaded with top end talent on the defensive line. 

Manny Wilkins isn't consistent at the quarterback spot. The Sun Devils didn't even get a first down in the second half until there was about 3 minutes left against San Diego State last week. They face an even better defense here. 

Washington's offense hasn't been clicking all that well this year. Jake Browning has been out of sync and the Huskies lack big playmakers on the outside. Arizona State's defense is much improved this year with Herm Edwards and Danny Gonzales here running the 3-3-5. 

I see Washington getting a safe lead here and then running the ball consistently and burning up the clock. Petersen's teams have a history of being very conservative with big leads in the second half. 

The under is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense let them down in the second half against Arizona State. The Sun Devils put together two long drives to win in the fourth quarter. Michigan State has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and I expect a much better defensive performance from a team coached by Mark Dantonio.

Michigan State ranks 120th in the nation, so they will be slowing things down a lot here. Indiana was top five in the nation in tempo last year, but they are down to an averaged paced tempo this year. 

Indiana has a strong defensive line, and Michigan State is banged up on the offensive front. LJ Scott is questionable for this game as well, and without him Michigan State is far less potent on offense. 

Both Michigan State and Indiana's offenses have been slightly worse than the average offense in the country. 

Last year's meeting was 17-9 and an epic defensive struggle. The year before that they went into overtime at 21-21 (it was 7-0 at halftime). These teams have a history of low scoring games against each other. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles had a week off after a cancellation due to Hurricane Florence. Their offense gets a boost as Kwadra Griggs is eligible to return at quarterback here. Since Jack Abraham has played so well at QB, Griggs will have to share time with him. 

Southern Miss' offense will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in the Rice Owls. Rice is allowing 6.01 yards per carry. Their secondary might be even worse though. They are giving up a whopping 10.0 yards per pass completion. Rice has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just three games. 

The Rice offense is better than last year. The Owls are a respectable 83rd in the country in yards per play. They have an improved backfield and I think they can break some big gainers in the run game here.

The last two years the score has been 44-28 Southern Miss and 43-34 Southern Miss when these two teams met. Southern Miss put up more than 500 yards of offense last year.

This total has been bet down, and I'll gladly take the over at this low number with a questionable Southern Miss defense and a terrible Rice defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores have a much improved passing attack. Vanderbilt gained 420 yards against Notre Dame last week, and the Commodores just blew all sorts of chances to score in the red zone. They should have won that game.

South Carolina is playing much faster this year. The Gamecocks rank 29th in the country in tempo so far this season. With Samuel healthy again, Jake Bentley has an elite weapon to get the ball to and that should make a big difference.

Last year, both of these teams were worse on offense and played slower and their meeting was a 34-27 South Carolina win. 

Maybe Vanderbilt's defense is a little better this year, but I'm not convinced it is as good as it looks on paper so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Which team is dead last in the nation in yards per play so far this year? It's the Northern Illinois Huskies. This Northern Illinois offense wants to rely on the run. They are running the ball more than 61% of the time this year. They just aren't any good at running the football though. The strength of the Florida State defense is their run defense. Florida State ranks 34th in the country, allowing only 3.31 yards per carry on the year thus far.

Florida State's offensive line is a mess right now. It's about as bad of an offensive line as any Power 5 conference has. What's the strength of the Northern Illinois defense? It's clearly their defensive line led by Sutton Smith. Smith is going to be in the Florida State backfield early and often in this one.

This projects as a 20-13 type of game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers have a tremendous defensive front. Georgia Tech is a team that has to run the football. They have virtually no passing game. Georgia Tech runs on about 77% of their offensive plays. The Yellow Jackets average a little better than 7 yards per carry, but they shouldn't get anywhere near that amount in this contest.

Clemson has been excellent at stopping the triple option of Georgia Tech in recent years. The Yellow Jackets have had 230, 124, and 230 total yards of offense in their last three games against Clemson. Clemson beat Tech 26-7 and 24-10 the last two seasons. The Tigers are a bit vulnerable in the secondary this year, but this is the best defensive line they have had. Clemson also faced a triple option team last week. They should be ready. 

Georgia Tech's defense is showing signs of improving under new coordinator Nate Woody. He did a great job at Appalachian State, and he should do a good job in the long run here too. Tech ranks 53rd in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year.

With Clemson running at a 56% clip on the year and Georgia Tech running the ball on nearly every play, there will be a bunch of running clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks offense has been bad this year, but this is their chance to breakout of their funk. Miami's offensive numbers are skewed right now. They played a game in torrential rain and wind against Cincinnati and scored 0 points. They then scored 3 against a good Big Ten defense in Minnesota. 

Miami now goes up against a terrible Bowling Green defense. Bowling Green is allowing 7.32 yards per play on the year. That is 123rd in the country. Bowling Green has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. The Falcons allowed 29 points and a whopping 612 yards against Miami last year. The year before Miami put up 40 points on them.

Bowling Green's offense likes to push the tempo, and I think Doege is a good fit for this scheme. In the same way that their offensive stats are skewed to the downside, Miami's defensive stats look better than they should. That torrential rain and wind game helped their numbers. Also, Minnesota has a really weak offense this year. Marshall put up 35 points on Miami in the season opener. 

This is an awfully low total for a Bowling Green game. I think both offenses move the ball well here.

The over is 7-0 in Bowling Green's last 7 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. A 17-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is better this year than last. Georgia has a much more balanced attack. They have playmakers on the outside, and they have a quarterback who is comfortable in the system and has experience. Georgia ranks sixth in the nation in yards per play on offense so far this year. 

Missouri is in the top 20 in the nation in tempo. Derek Dooley has this offense playing quickly again, and Drew Lock looks great in this new offense. Missouri is 27th in the nation in yards per play, and they'll look to push the pace here.

The Georgia defense is down a notch from last year, and Missouri's defense isn't good at all. 

Georgia had 696 yards of total offense against Missouri last year. The final score there was 53-28 in favor of Georgia. I think both defenses are a little worse this year, and both offenses are definitely more efficient.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Demon Deacons will have their quarterback back for this game, and that should make a big difference. Their offense will become more efficient.

Notre Dame's tempo ranks 35th in the country. The Fighting Irish have been disappointing on offense thus far, but they go against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 95th in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame should get their running game going in a big way here.

With lots of pace from each side, I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins might be without Speight here, but I like freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his dual-threat ability. The Bruins will obviously play fast with Chip Kelly as their new coach. 

Fresno State's defensive front isn't as strong as it was a year ago. The Bulldogs won't be bad on defense, but they won't be as strong as they were a year ago. Fresno State hasn't played a good offense yet this year. 

The Fresno State offense will be better than it was a year ago. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback and a great offensive-minded head coach. Look for Fresno State to speed up their tempo some this season as well. UCLA's defense is a major weakness, and I think Fresno State can move the ball on a consistent basis here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils picked up a huge win over Michigan State last weekend. Herm Edwards' team deserves a lot of credit for how they have started out the season. I've been most impressed with Arizona State's run defense. The Sun Devils have allowed only 1.07 yards per carry so far this year. Stuffing UTSA didn't mean too much, but Michigan State averaged only 2.33 yards per carry last weekend. 

Arizona State's defensive coordinator was San Diego State's defensive coordinator last year. I think that really helps them on defense this weekend. San Diego State is without their starting quarterback here. The Aztecs rank in the bottom 5 in the country in pace of play. They will run the ball a bunch here, and that will keep the clock moving. I don't think San Diego State can throw it enough to keep Arizona State's defense honest.

Rocky Long's defenses seem to always be well-prepared. The Arizona State offensive line is a bit weak, and I expect San Diego State to be able to get in the backfield pretty often here and put Arizona State in 2nd and 3rd and long situations. 

Arizona State played so quickly last year, and they are a different team with Herm Edwards as their coach now. I don't think the market is accounting for that change enough right now.

The under is 20-8-1 in San Diego State's last 29 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have a potent offense with Drew Lock at quarterback and plenty of playmakers on the outside. Missouri is playing very quickly again this year, and Purdue's defense is much weaker than it was last season.

Purdue's offense is going to be better with Jeff Brohm leading the way. Brohm is a great offensive mind, and I fully expect him to be able to get the passing game going. Rondale Moore is a great weapon to have as well.

With both teams pushing the pace and throwing the ball often- I see this one getting over the posted total.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen will have a great passing attack this year. FIU's weakness on defense is their secondary. FIU has a strong offensive line. What's UMass' defensive weakness? Their defensive front is easy to run the football against.

These two teams met in the final game of the season last year. FIU won that one 63-45. FIU rolled up a ridiculous 674 yards of total offense. FIU ran for 379 yards (7.7 yards per carry). UMass totaled 548 yards, and they threw for 392 yards in that one. 

I don't like to make too much of a game from last year, but it was the final game of the season last year, and both offenses showed they can easily exploit the weakness of the opposing defense. 

Even without last year's contest, I would like the over here. UMass should finish the season in the top 30 or so in pace of play this year, and FIU is right about middle of the pack in tempo. Both defenses have proven vulnerable to big plays. I see a back and forth affair here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kansas State relies heavily on the running game, and they rank in the bottom 15 in the country in terms of tempo. There is always a lot of running clock and long drives in Kansas State contests.

UTSA lost a bunch of talent on offense from last year. The Roadrunners are going to have trouble scoring all season long. So far this year, UTSA is averaging a miserable 3.49 yards per play on the season. That is worst in Conference USA through the first two games.

Both teams are better at stopping the run than the pass in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have a fantastic passing attack led by Mason Fine. Arkansas has some major defensive issues. They allowed a bunch of big plays against a weak Colorado State offense last weekend. North Texas should surprise a lot of people with a bunch of big passing plays here.

Arkansas has a good quarterback for Chad Morris' system. The Razorbacks are looking to push the pace more and more every game. While the North Texas offense is very good, their defense is weak. North Texas struggled all year last season with giving up too many big plays.

Lots of explosive plays from both sides.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers always rank in the bottom ten in the nation in terms of pace of play. BYU ranks on the lower end in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of running plays in this game, and with both teams letting the clock roll between plays it will certainly help the under.

BYU couldn't do anything on offense against Cal last week at home. The Cougars got a fumble recovery run back for a touchdown, but had 3 points on offense until the final minute of the game. They scored a TD with less than a minute left with Cal in their prevent defense. Cal's defense is pretty good, but the Wisconsin Badgers defense is clearly stronger. I would be surprised if BYU gets much at all here.

Wisconsin is a very run heavy team. They will run the ball 65-70% of the time this year. They have a great running game, but BYU's defensive strength is definitely stopping the run. The Cougars have a strong front 7. Wisconsin will get their yardage here, but I think BYU does better slowing them down than most teams do. Expect long drawn out drives for Wisconsin.

A 31-10 type of game here with the under showing value.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers and Ohio Bobcats meet on Saturday. This total has been beaten down in a big way because of the Hurricane Florence threat. Even if this game is played in Virginia, I think there is some value on the over. However, multiple sources now indicate that this game will be played in Nashville at a neutral site. Beat writers for both teams have reported this.

This is a game that I believe should have a total in the mid 50's given a normal weather day. When a total is this much below that number, I have to fire with a bigger play. 

Ohio's defense is going to be much weaker than they were a year ago. How bad could they be? Ohio allowed a whopping 645 yards to Howard in their first game.

A quick tempo from the Bobcats and a solid Virginia run offense.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats picked up a big upset victory over UCLA. Cincinnati didn't win because of their offense though. Despite going up against a weak UCLA defense, Cincinnati's offense couldn't get much done. Cincinnati averaged only 3.65 yards per play and finished with 285 total yards. The Bearcats still don't have an identity on offense. Defensively, the Bearcats have a much improved defensive line, and I think they could give the Miami offensive line trouble in this game.

This game is played at Paul Brown Stadium where the Bengals played so it is a neutral site. The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are expected to move into Cincinnati on Saturday night. The weather forecast is calling for winds of around 15 mph and a good chance of rain especially later in this game. That could make both teams run the ball more than they typically would. Offenses who are predictable clearly help the defense in a big way.

This is a big rivalry game, and last year's game was dominated by the defenses.  My numbers liked this under a decent amount even without the weather being factored in. With the weather being factored in, I think this is a good value.

Take the under.