*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been an under machine this year. Only one of their games has gone over the posted total. In fact, San Diego State's last four games have all finished with a total of 30 points or lower. 

San Diego State plays slowly on offense, and they are very inefficient. Juwan Washington is a good running back when he's healthy, but he is banged up now and is questionable for this game. San Diego State has very little passing game.

Central Michigan had a good year offensively, but they were up against some extremely weak defenses in the MAC. Central Michigan scored only 12 points against Miami and 0 points against Wisconsin. 

Though this is certainly a low number, I think this game is likely to stay in the 30's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are second in the nation (out of 130 teams) in tempo. Kent State is 8th in the nation in tempo. Both teams have struggled at times this year with teams who look to slow the game down and bleed the clock while controlling the ball most of the game. That won't be an issue here. Both teams want to get snaps off as fast as they can, and there should be a bunch of possessions in this contest.

Jordan Love has had a disappointing season. Love was terrific a year ago for Utah State. He is clearly a very talented quarterback, but the cast around him wasn't quite as good this year. They also played some solid pass defenses in the Mountain West. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Kent State's pass defense ranks 128th in the country this year. This is a great chance for Jordan Love to go out with a bang and put up a lot of yards against this Kent State defense.

Crum has done a nice job for Kent State at quarterback. He doesn't make sensational plays too often, but he is efficient with the football. He has good receivers on the outside, and I think Kent State can get some big gainers in this game. 

Bowl games between two teams with middling records have been strong to the over in the past few seasons. 

Look for the extreme tempo to lead to quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Clemson Tigers are just way too good for everyone in the ACC. Clemson's offense didn't play up to expectations for a while this year, but they have been great in recent weeks. Dabo Swinney made it clear a few days ago that he believes the country doesn't respect them enough. Will Clemson want to prove a point in this game? It seems likely.

Virginia's defense was really good early in the season, but if you look at the recent trends from this Cavs defense it is very concerning. Virginia gave up 25 first downs and 483 yards against a subpar Virginia Tech offense. Liberty threw for 313 yards against this Virginia secondary. Virginia gave up a whopping 28 points to a very weak Georgia Tech offense. The Cavs defense is not finishing the season strongly at all. Virginia is without star cornerback Bryce Hall and that has really hurt this unit. 

Clemson has scored 52 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have rolled up 516 yards of offense or more in seven straight games. I think they'll put up a big number here. 

Virginia has scored 20 points or more in all but one game this year. The Cavs do have a good quarterback in Bryce Perkins. Perkins though can make some bad mistakes with the football or hold the ball too long at times. It could create big plays for either the Virginia offense on a big gainer or a pick six or strip six if he doesn't get rid of the ball quicker.

The weather looks good for this game. I see this number as a little too low considering how consistent both of these teams have been at scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This Pac 12 title game between Utah and Oregon will be played on Friday night in Santa Clara. Utah has a lot on the line here. If LSU beats Georgia, the Utes have a real chance to sneak into the playoffs this year. Utah would be well served to not only win, but be impressive in winning.

The Oregon offense hasn't been good against quality defenses this year. Oregon has had long droughts against good defenses. The Ducks were only 4th best in the Pac 12 in yards per play on offense. Utah was easily first in the conference in yards per play allowed. In fact, Utah was 4th best out of 130 teams in the nation in yards per play allowed. Utah doesn't give up big plays. The Utes should do a great job keeping Oregon in front of them.

The Utah offense relies on the running game. Utah runs the ball on nearly 66% of their offensive plays. Utah has also played at the single slowest pace of any team in the nation this year. They take a lot of time off the clock even when they do score. Oregon ranks 13th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

Both of these teams are far stronger on defense than offense. 

The forecast in Santa Clara calls for rain all week. On Friday night, rain and some winds are in the forecast. Levi's Stadium has been good for unders to begin with, and this weather would help the under quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes defense is tremendous. The way they have been dominating games lately has been truly amazing. Utah has allowed 7 points or less in five of their last six games. The Utes have only allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more all season. That is some excellent work at preventing big plays. Colorado's offense has been disappointing all year, and I would be surprised if they have much success at all here. 

Utah plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. The Utes also run the ball on 66% of their offensive plays. They have shown they are willing to slow down and run the ball even more when they are ahead by a large margin. That is likely to be the case here. 

Colorado's defense has played much better in their last three games. They have a defensive-minded head coach and their seems to be improvement being made. Colorado has been more conservative on offense of late and slowed the pace some too.

I see Utah winning big here and this one staying under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Iowa State has one of the better defenses in the Big 12. There are so many really high scoring teams in the Big 12 that the oddsmakers have to put a fairly high total on every game. Still, it can create some opportunities in spots where the defenses seem to have an advantage.

Kansas State runs the ball 62.5% of the time on offense. This is an offense that wants to be conservative and move very slowly. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats are only 79th in yards per play on offense.

Iowa State's strength is stopping the run defensively. The Cyclones are 36th best in the country in ypc allowed. They are giving up only 3.93 yards per carry in conference play.

Iowa State plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Cyclones usually rely on the pass to move the football.

The weather looks very shaky for this contest. Heavy winds of 20-25 mph are forecast according to multiple sources. 

I like the under without the wind, and with the wind this looks very valuable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers are a strong under team. Pitt is playing slightly faster this year, but their offense isn't efficient at all. Pitt is 114th in yards per play this year. The usually strong running game just isn't good this season.

Pitt is excellent defensively. Their strength is stopping the run. Pitt ranks 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Panthers easily rank as the best run defense in the ACC.

Boston College is all about the run. If you can stop the run, you should have a lot of success stopping the Eagles offensively. I expect Pitt to at least slow them down here. 

The weather looks questionable in Pittsburgh on Saturday. If there is wind and rain it would be a plus for the under.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Southern Miss is much improved offensively this year. They rank 24th in the nation in yards per play. Their running game hasn't been very good, but they have been very good throwing the football. Southern Miss ranks 10th in the nation in yards per pass attempt.

Florida Atlantic started the season a little slow offensively, but the Owls have gotten things going as one would have expected. The Owls are third in CUSA in yards per play. They are first in total yards. Florida Atlantic is the second fastest paced team in the conference. 

Both of these teams have really had trouble with keeping the play in front of them. Both defenses have given up a lot of big plays this year. Southern Miss has allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more (86th in country). Florida Atlantic has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or more (114th in the country). 

Look for both teams to score quite a few points here. Both offenses have clear advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have had a bunch of low scoring games in the Big 12. We all know this is a conference where a good defense and low scoring games are very rare. 

In Baylor's last 9 games, 7 of them have had 44 points or less total in regulation. The Bears have gotten more conservative on offense and they are leaning on their very strong defense. 

Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer is banged up with an ankle injury. He is likely to play through it, but that likely makes them a little more conservative on offense. 

Kansas has relied strongly on big plays this year on offense. They aren't an offense who can consistently put together strong drives. The Jayhawks face a Baylor defense who is great at preventing big plays. Baylor has only allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more (7th in the country). 

An important factor here is the weather. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22-25 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. There are very strong angles for taking unders in that kind of wind. It should make both teams run the ball a lot more often here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange offense has been better the last couple games. Syracuse put up 510 yards last week against Louisville. They had 395 yards and 49 points against Duke the week before. Syracuse always plays quickly. They are 16th in the nation in pace of play this season.

Wake Forest is 12th in pace of play, so they are extremely quick. The Demon Deacons are without a couple receivers on offense, but they still put up 618 yards and 39 points on Duke last weekend. I rate the Syracuse defense as the worst defense in the ACC.

Both teams have given up a bunch of big plays this year, and I would expect quite a few big gainers again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have a fierce rivalry. They play for the Old Oaken Bucket. These two teams always get up for this game, and I would expect a lot of intensity on Saturday in West Lafayette. 

Indiana's defense is much improved this year. The Hoosiers rank 35th in the country in yards per play allowed. Indiana has slowed their tempo offensively to help the defense this year, and it has worked. 

Purdue's offense is a shell of its former self without Rondale Moore and Elijah Sindelar. Purdue is reliant on throwing the football now. They have virtually no ground game. Purdue ranks 127th in the nation in yards per carry at a paltry 2.65 per carry.

Indiana's offense also relies on the pass quite a bit. The Hoosiers are 104th in the nation in yards per carry. 

These teams relying on the pass could hurt quite a bit here based on the weather this weekend as well. Multiple forecasts are calling for rain all throughout the day on Saturday, and the rain could be an inch or more. The wind is expected to pick up and be an issue too. The field at Purdue is a grass field and it can get torn up pretty easily. Those conditions are helpful for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers are two of the better under teams in the Big 12. We see a very low total here for a Big 12 game, but I think it is justified. 

The forecast for Friday calls for heavy rain and 15 mph wind. This is a grass field and that will make it tough for scoring.

In addition, West Virginia has virtually no running game. How will they move the ball here? TCU is excellent in pass coverage and the weather will hurt as well.

TCU relies on the run, but West Virginia is excellent at stopping the run. 

The matchups and the weather make this an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes haven't played a game that has gone higher than 46 points in the Big Ten. That is just slightly above this number, but there is another key factor involved.

The weather for Friday's game in Nebraska looks terrible. Freezing rain and rain with winds of 15 mph sustained and gusts to 20-25 mph are expected throughout the game. That is definitely significant enough weather to change the game. 

Iowa is 13th in the Big Ten in yards per carry, and I don't think they can consistently move the ball by being extremely conservatively. It will be hard to do anything other than be very conservative in this weather.

Nebraska plays quickly, but they haven't been efficient on offense.

Both defenses are excellent at preventing big plays. Even if the teams move the ball it should be in small increments and take quite a bit of time off the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan for this Tuesday MACtion contest. Western Michigan has been the most consistent team in the MAC this year. The Broncos have a good offense and a weaker defense. Northern Illinois has been a disappointment in general this year. The Huskies are 98th in the nation in yards per play.

Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo. Western Michigan ranks 75th out of 130 in tempo. Northern Illinois is 98th in tempo. 

The weather here is the primary reason for this play. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts of 35 mph during the game. Rain is expected as well throughout the game. A clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* San Diego State hasn't seen a single game finish above 48 total points so far this year. I fully understand that they are playing a Hawaii team who is capable of playing very high scoring games here, but I have to take the under in a San Diego State game with a line set this high.

San Diego State's running game isn't even close to what it was a couple years ago. Washington is banged up in the backfield, and the offensive line isn't very good. Ryan Agnew is a clear weakness at quarterback. The Aztecs don't have good weapon on the outside either. 

The Aztecs still have a good defense though, and they have been good at preventing big plays.

Hawaii's offense is all about explosive plays, but I think they'll find those harder to come by this week. Hawaii only plays at the 85th rated tempo out of 130 in the country, so they play much slower on offense than most realize.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Arizona State is likely to want to slow the pace down here and keep this a low scoring game. I believe they will know that gives them a better chance in this contest. The Sun Devils offense hasn't been very explosive this year. Arizona State has only 39 plays of 20 yards or more (105th in the nation). 

Oregon's defense has been really good all year. The Ducks rank 9th in yards per play allowed. Oregon ranks 4th in opponents QBR rating allowed. Arizona State's run offense has been really weak all year. It's hard to see Arizona State having too much offensive success in this game.

Oregon's offense has been very inconsistent this season. The Ducks have had several key injuries on offense. 

Arizona State has allowed just 12 plays of 30 yards or more all year (11th best in country). Oregon has allowed only 8 plays of 30 yards or more all year (2nd best in country). I like defenses who prevent big plays when looking for an under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers offense has been awful the last four games. First, they scored only 14 points in a loss to the hapless Vanderbilt Commodores. Missouri then followed it up by scoring 7 points at Kentucky. Kentucky is a decent defense, but they aren't great. Missouri was then shut out by Georgia and held to 6 points by Florida. The Tigers have scored a total of 27 points in their last four contests. They have only one touchdown in their last three games.

Tennessee's defense has been very solid this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, this is a defense that I rate as a top 30 defense. The Volunteers aren't likely to give up many big plays here.

Missouri's defense has been excellent this year. The Tigers rank 14th in yards per play allowed. Tennessee's offense is 91st in yards per play on the season.

I think this is a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Desmond Ridder is playing banged up right now, and it is making Cincinnati a more predictable team. Temple is a defense that is due for positive regression. All year Temple has been much better in yards per play allowed than points per game allowed. This is a team with a very solid front seven on defense. 

Cincinnati wants to play slowly and eat up time. The Bearcats weren't particularly good at getting big gainers even with Ridder healthy, but they have gotten worse in that area with him at less than 100% percent.

Temple's offense ranks 11th in the conference in yards per play. They have very little running game. They also lack a trustworthy quarterback.

I see a lower scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have proven to be a great team led by an amazing defense and solid running game. Georgia plays very slowly. The Bulldogs are 122nd in the nation in tempo. With a lead, Georgia has been more than willing to just run the ball up the middle and burn up the clock. They are a decent sized favorite here, so they are expected to be playing in the lead during this game. That's a positive for the under.

Texas A&M's offense has been a disappointment this year. They are 6th in the SEC in ypc, but Georgia is first in ypc allowed. Kellen Mond has been disappointing this year, and he doesn't have receivers who break many big plays.

The weather is a factor here. Georgia's field is a grass field that can get sloppy in rainstorms. There is heavy rain expected before this game and showers during the game. Winds of 10-15 mph will be blowing during the game too. 

I see both teams being conservative in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green expect to have Mason Fine back under center here. Fine is the best quarterback in Conference USA. Fine should be able to find a lot of holes in this Rice secondary. Rice has been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but their secondary just isn't good enough. North Texas has the quarterback and the receivers to make them pay.

Rice has started to show some more offense in recent weeks. The Owls are now up against one of the weakest defenses in the conference. The Mean Green have been giving up scores by the bunches. 

This total is set several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* We have 2 good defenses in this matchup.  VT ranks 30th and Pitt ranks 7th in yards-per-play. VT ranks 31st and Pitt ranks 6th in yard-per-rush. VT ranks 39th and Pitt ranks 14th in yard-per-attempt. Pitt also leads the nation with 45 sacks and VT ranks 12th in the same category. Both defense also rank in the top 25 of red zone scoring percentage..

*3 Star Play Over* The biggest weakness of this Notre Dame team this year is their rushing defense. We saw it against Michigan in a big way. It also has showed up in some of their other games. Notre Dame ranks only 55th in yards per carry allowed. The Fighting Irish now go up against a Boston College offense that has gotten a bunch of big gainers on the ground this year. 

Boston College has scored 89 points in their last two games. Their problem is they don't have any defense. Boston College has allowed more than 40 points in three games already this year. The Eagles are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Notre Dame ranks 38th in pace of play. The Fighting Irish will get plenty of chances to score here. Boston College ranks 4th in tempo. The Eagles should be able to score their fair share as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Ohio State's offense has been tremendous this year with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins giving the team two great runners in the backfield. The offensive line has been far better than anyone could have imagined. Ohio State has excellent receivers too. Penn State has been victimized by good passing attacks the last couple weeks. I think Ohio State can do damage there and the screen game with Dobbins could give Penn State fits as well.

Ohio State's defense has been very good this year, but they haven't had to play too many good offenses. The Buckeyes will likely give up some explosive plays against a Penn State offense that takes a lot of chances.

This total was set under several key totals numbers. Both teams play quickly and I see this line as a solid value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips scored two touchdowns last week against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. Don't let that fool you into thinking Akron is getting good offensively though. Akron hit a 87 yard TD pass for one of the scores and then they scored with a minute left when Eastern Michigan was up huge and playing a prevent defense.

Miami (Ohio) has the best defense in the MAC. Akron has been held to 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. A touchdown or less from Akron is very possible here. 

Miami (Ohio) is weak offensively and they typically try not to run up the score. The Redhawks should win this game comfortably, and I believe that's a good thing for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers will be without star quarterback Dan Ellington in this one. Ellington was hurt at the end of the second quarter in last week's 45-31 loss to ULM. Georgia State scored 24 points while Ellington was in that game, and they scored only 7 points without him. Cornelious Brown was 8/18 for 80 yards in relief of Ellington. Brown isn't the player that Ellington is, and Georgia State is up against a good defense here.

Appalachian State's defense didn't look very good earlier this year, but they have rounded into form. Appalachian State has allowed 7 points or less in three of their last four Sun Belt games. In their last five games overall, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 11.2 points per game.

Georgia State's defense is bad, and Appalachian State should be able to move the ball a lot on them. The Mountaineers have slowed their pace down with big leads though, and I think this total is several points too high given the GA State quarterback situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both schools actually rank in the top 40 in yard per play and despite Air Force's slow tempo, they have been able to put points on the board due to their effectiveness in the red zone (averaging 38 points per game in conference play so far). The Falcons also have a bit more of a passing game to keep teams honest than they have had in recent seasons. 

*4 Star Play Under*  Bo Nix and the Auburn offense has struggled when they step up in class. While he does look better at home, that has been against far inferior defenses. On the flip side of the ball, Auburn's defense has been outstanding all year long, including holding LSU to their lowest point total and their lowest yard per play (per game) of the season, and that was in Baton Rouge. Auburn's defense has been impressive in nearly every aspect of the game, stopping the run, preventing explosive plays and red zone defense.

Georgia is going through at a surprisingly slow tempo this year, ranking 125 of 130 teams (and last in the SEC in just conference games). While their offense has looked good, they don't have the experience of the schedule that auburn has faced so far and I would give the edge to auburn's defense, especially with the hostile home crowd at Auburn. Both defenses rank in top 20 in yards-per-play allowed as well as red zone TD scoring %. Both offense run the ball frequently (57% of the time for UGA and 60% for Auburn), so the clock should keep rolling a lot in this one.  Great defenses and a running clock would favor a low scoring affair as the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry adds a new chapter.

In a game that mean a lot to both teams, look for the defenses to be ready to go. The offenses will have to work hard for their points. Take the under.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had less than 45 total points scored in every SEC game other than their opener against Florida. Remember, that game had 43 points and as Florida tried to run out the clock with a few seconds left they busted a long TD run. Kentucky has run the ball a bunch all year, and the Wildcats offense has really struggled. Their defense has kept them in games. 

Vanderbilt's offense is absolutely hapless. They are averaging a miserable 3.93 yards per play in SEC play. That is easily last in the conference. In SEC play they have only 13 plays of 20 yards or more all season. The Commodores often get behind and need to try to throw the ball, but their passing game is absolutely awful.

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team. I would expect an ugly contest here that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans have been a really good over team this year. Troy ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Trojans are 28th in yards per play on offense as well, so they have been putting up some big numbers. Troy has multiple options on the outside, and they have a veteran signal caller under center.

Texas State ranks 48th in tempo. The Bobcats offense has finally started to click a bit better in recent weeks. There are some good offensive coaches on this staff, and I would expect them to be able to get things going more on the offensive end the rest of this year- and then especially get it going even more next year.

These two teams rank 13th and 6th in the nation in percentage of plays that are a pass. That being the case, there should be a lot of possessions in this game with both teams playing at a fast pace too.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense ranks 10th in the country in yards per play allowed. They likely aren't that good since they have played a weak schedule, but the strength of this Missouri team has been their defense.

Missouri's offense ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per play at 5.01 yards per play. The Tigers only have 37 plays of 20 yards or more this year (97th in the country). This offensive line has allowed 19 sacks, and the Florida defense ranks 5th in the country with 35 sacks so far this year. They'll be in the Missouri backfield in this game.

Florida's offense and Missouri's offense both play at a slightly slower than average pace. Florida has been pass heavy this year, and the strength of the Missouri defense is the secondary.

Florida's defense ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that number is skewed from their giving up so much against LSU. Missouri's offense clearly isn't LSU. 

This total has been bet up to a point where I see a good amount of value. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I view San Diego State as a great under team. They are so consistent in playing low scoring games. They have only played one game all season that has finished higher than 44 points. That's truly amazing this late in the year. 

Both offenses rank in the top half in conference play on percentage of plays that are runs as both run the ball north of 50%  of the time, which means a lot of running clock which is good for the under (SD St running the ball on 60 % of plays in conference games so far).

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips have scored a grand total of 9 points in their last four games. Akron's offense is the worst in the country. The Zips are averaging 3.50 yards per play inside a MAC that is filled with bad defenses.

Eastern Michigan has been a disappointment this year, but they are a big favorite here as they should be. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team, but they can't run the ball. If they get a lead, I wouldn't expect them to have much success running later in the game as they bleed the clock. 

Akron's defense actually ranks 54th best in the country and 4th best in the MAC. They are a respectable unit.

It is set to snow in Akron on Tuesday. Most of the snow will likely be done by the time the game starts, but winds of about 13-15 mph and very cold temperatures will still be around during this contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* San Diego State is great at turning games into a rock fight. They are great defensively. They are challenged offensively. They are also well-coached. San Diego State hasn't had a single game finish with anymore than 48 combined points all year. That's truly amazing this deep into the season. They have also had 4 games with 37 points or fewer in them. 

Nevada's offense has been hapless of late. They don't have an answer at the quarterback spot. This team has no identity on offense, and I find it hard to imagine them scoring many at all in this game.

San Diego State is typically a team that doesn't win by margins. They are content to run the ball and use up a bunch of the clock. They should do it again here once in the lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense has really impressed me this year. Baylor ranks 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Baylor already has 26 sacks this year. They have been very good at getting into the opponents backfield. This is an aggressive Bears defense that is likely to cause the TCU questionable offensive line trouble.

TCU has a solid defense too. The Horned Frogs rank 40th in yards per play allowed, but they have played some very good offenses. Gary Patterson is a defensive minded coach who should have this defense ready for this matchup.

Baylor put up some big numbers early in the season against some weak teams. Their offense is decent, but it is a bit overvalued. TCU's offense hasn't been good all season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Penn State Nittany Lions rank first in the country in yards per carry allowed (1.99 ypc allowed). Minnesota runs the ball on nearly 70% of their offensive plays. P.J. Fleck's team will try their best to use up a bunch of clock. They run the ball that often and then play at a bottom five pace. Minnesota will try to keep Penn State's offense off the field here. 

Penn State's offense has a star in Hamler, but the rest of the unit is good and not great. Clifford is up against a very good secondary here. Minnesota is a well-coached team and I would expect Penn State to have trouble picking up big plays. Minnesota is 5th in the nation in least 20 plus yard plays allowed. 

Look for some Big Ten smash mouth football played in Minnesota in what is a huge game for both teams. Both teams enter unbeaten and this is a big test for them.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon secondary hadn't really been tested until the last two games. They failed their test. Washington threw the ball easily on this Oregon secondary. Washington State put up a big number against them as well.

USC has many problems, but they still have some of the best receivers in the country. They also have a good quarterback to get them the ball. I think USC can pick up big plays in the air against Oregon here.

The USC defense is allowing 5.81 yards per play. The Trojans have allowed a whopping 127 plays of 10 yards or more on the season (112th in the country). Oregon's offense is good on the ground and through the air. They should move the ball with ease as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been historically bad this year. Northwestern has played 7 games so far this year. They have scored 10 points or less in five of those games. 

Indiana's defense isn't great, but it has been much better than I expected. The Hoosiers rank 34th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Northwestern only has 10 plays of 20 yards or more in 7 games. That is easily worst in the nation. The Wildcats have absolutely no passing game, and the running game isn't very good.

Indiana's offense has slowed their pace drastically this year. The Hoosiers will go up against a very solid Northwestern defense here. The Wildcats rank 44th in yards per play allowed despite playing a very tough schedule.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oregon State is much better on offense than many realize. Jake Luton has done a nice job under center, and they have a pretty good ground game as well. This offense was quieted down by Cal and Utah recently, but now they go against a very weak defense in Arizona.

Arizona is playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12. The Wildcats rank 18th in the nation in yards per play, so offense hasn't been the problem for much of the season. 

Arizona just fired defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, but I don't think there is a quick fix for their defensive woes. The Wildcats are giving up 6.2 yards per play.

Oregon State's defense isn't much better. They are allowing 5.89 yards per play.

Oregon State and Arizona both play quickly, and the offenses have clear advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes play at the 129th pace in the country out of 130 teams. The Utes also run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays. Utah is a grind it out team. They will use their offensive line to try to wear you down a little bit at a time over the course of the game. 

Washington isn't likely to get much at all on the ground in this one. Utah is second in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season. I wouldn't expect them to be able to consistently put together good drives against this elite Utah defense. 

Washington also plays slowly. The Huskies rank 92nd in the country in pace of play. 

The Huskies defense has been much better in recent seasons at home, and I think they'll stay in this game. Utah is the better team though and I think they dictate the flow of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks continue to push the tempo. Arkansas has played a lot of good defenses so far this year. The Razorbacks have faced Auburn and Alabama in the last two weeks. Those defenses will shut a lot of offenses down. 

Arkansas isn't good offensively, but Mississippi State is really bad on defense. The Bulldogs were great on defense last year, but they had to replace nearly everyone- and it hasn't gone well. Mississippi State ranks 111th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Mississippi State has already played three games that finished with a total of 66 or higher. Two of their last four games finished at 79 points total.

These are the 12th and 13th ranked defenses in the SEC. Expect the two offenses to have quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado State's offense has been far better than most people realize this year. Patrick O'Brien is quietly dominating at quarterback for the Rams. He has completed 61% of his passes and has 1,716 yards despite starting the season on the bench. The Rams have 10 plays of 60 yards or more this season, which is best in the nation. 

What is UNLV's defensive weakness? They can't keep the opposition in front of them. UNLV has been beaten deep many times this year. The Rebels have allowed 27 plays of 30 yards or more already this season (127th in the country). 

UNLV has played several teams who consistently have low scoring games this year, and that has skewed their overall point totals down. They have already played Northwestern, Wyoming (they had a high scoring game here), Vanderbilt, and San Diego State.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has been excellent this year. The new coaching staff deserves all kinds of credit. Charlotte was a bottom ten offense in the country for many years in a row. This year, Charlotte ranks 23rd in the country in yards per play. The 49ers have an impressive 48 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

MTSU has found a pretty good quarterback in Asher O'Hara. The Blue Raiders running game has gotten going in a big way the last couple games. MTSU is averaging 5.47 yards per carry (12th in the nation). The Blue Raiders can do enough through the air to keep teams honest.

Both of these defenses are really weak. MTSU ranks 103rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Charlotte ranks 116th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Look for a lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks have turned up the tempo in a big way. In the middle of the year, they decided to change the way this offense was run. Their last four games have all finished with at least 65 points total. Kansas' offense is much improved compared to a year ago. I'm really impressed with the job Les Miles has done thus far.

Kansas State is coming off that stunning win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats are thought of as a defensive team, but this defense hasn't been very good. Kansas State ranks 110th in the country in yards per play allowed. They have been very fortunate to not give up more points. This defense is a regression candidate.

I think this total has been bet down because recent games between these two have been so low. These are different teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The under is a whopping 33-9-1 in service academy matchups since 2005. It makes a lot of sense. These teams generally benefit on offense from the fact that the opposing defense isn't accustomed to seeing the triple option. That benefit isn't there when you are playing against another service academy. 

Additionally, these teams badly want to win matchups against each other. In games with this kind of high level of motivation, it tends to lead to lower scoring games.

Both teams play at such a slow pace that even if they move the ball down the field it should take a very long time. Even long drives with field goals are big positives for the under.

Air Force has been throwing the ball a little more this year, but they are expected to have the lead and with a lead they are good at running the ball and using up the clock.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* UMass is the worst defense in the country, and it isn't close. The Minutemen are allowing a whopping 7.71 yards per play this year. UMass has allowed 55 plays of 20 yards or more. They are equally bad against the run and the pass.

Liberty's offense is due for some positive regression. They rank 28th in the nation in yards per play, but they are 60th in the nation in points per game. The Flames get a great chance to put up a big number here.

The Liberty defense is allowing 6.12 yards per play. Liberty has had some red zone luck on defense or their opponents would have scored more. 

UMass surprisingly pushes the pace. The Minutemen rank 7th in the nation in tempo. Hugh Freeze wants his Liberty team to play fast as well. 

This number is several points too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Jordan Love and the Aggies offense haven't been quite as efficient as one would have expected, but I expect Love and the passing game to improve the rest of the year. 

Air Force has multiple quarterbacks who know the system well and who can run the triple option and have success. The Falcons have scored 38 and 32 points on Utah State the last two years. They have allowed 38 and 42 points in those games. This is a series where there have been a bunch of points.

The Air Force offense is much better this year than they have been in recent seasons. Air Force's defense has been weak against the pass this year. Love should have success against them. With the pace that this game will be played at this isn't a high total. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 15-18 mph with gusts of 25 mph. There is heavy rain expected as well. 

Michigan's defense is a top ten defense in the country. Notre Dame really hasn't faced many really good defenses this year. Ian Book is a question mark to me when he goes against good defenses.

Notre Dame's defense showed me a lot in their close loss to Georgia. This is a Fighting Irish defense that has allowed only 16 plays of 20 yards or more all year (5th best in the nation).

The weather here is significant enough that we should expect the two defenses to have the upper hand in this big game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kentucky has played five games in the SEC. Only one of those games has gone over this total, and that game should have stayed under this number as well. It was their 29-21 loss to Florida. The Gators ran for a 76 yard touchdown with 30 seconds while they were leading 22-21. Kentucky's games since then have finished at 41, 31, 44, and 24 points. 

The Wildcats are averaging only 13 points per game in SEC play. They are without their starting quarterback, and it has definitely limited them on offense. Kentucky is playing the second best defense they have faced thus far in this game. Missouri ranks 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Tigers excel at not giving up big plays, and I don't think Kentucky will be able to consistently move down the field on Missouri.

The Tigers offense has been extremely inconsistent. They lack big playmakers on the outside, and the Tigers will be tested by a Kentucky defense that is improving as the season moves along. 

The weather forecast calls for heavy rain and winds of 15 mph in this one. That will make both offenses more conservative than normal. That is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU is 50th in the nation in yards per play offensively. They are 106th in the nation in points per game. MTSU is playing at the fastest pace of any team in Conference USA in its conference games so far this year. The Blue Raiders should be more efficient over time. They have only 10 touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips into the red zone this year. That should regress toward the mean. MTSU has been able to move the ball this year.

FIU started the season off slowly on offense, but they are averaging 6.38 yards per play in CUSA thus far. They have played at the 4th fastest pace of any team in league play this year. 

FIU's defense ranks 68th in yards per play allowed. MTSU ranks 118th in the nation in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have shown plenty of vulnerability.

This is a low total with two teams playing quickly and two offenses capable of scoring in bunches.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* North Texas likes to throw the football a lot, and I can't blame them since they have a star quarterback in Mason Fine. Charlotte's defense has been mediocre against the run, but they are terrible against the pass. The 49ers defense is 124th in QBR allowed, so they have been getting torched through the air. North Texas ranks 35th in the nation (2nd fastest in CUSA) in tempo as well.

Charlotte doesn't play fast, but they have hit a bunch of big gainers this year, especially in their running game. The 49ers already have 21 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. What's the weakness of the North Texas defense? Stopping the run. The Mean Green are allowing 4.77 yards per carry on the season.

I see a back and forth type of game as both teams put up a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have a good offense this year, but they haven't faced many good defenses. They were shut down by a really good defense (Clemson) last week. Louisville has piled up huge offensive numbers against teams like Eastern Kentucky, Boston College, and Wake Forest. Virginia ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Virginia's offense ranks 122nd in tempo. The Cavs look to slow down the game. Virginia averages only 3.33 yards per carry, so they rely on the passing game quite a bit. 

The weather forecast here calls for upper 60's and 20 mph sustained winds with 1-2 inches of rain in the afternoon. This is enough to push me onto the under in this game. Look for a lot of running the ball and moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State defense is better than their overall statistics look so far this year. Michigan State has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year. The Spartans took on Ohio State and Wisconsin in their last two games. Both of those offenses skewed the Michigan State defensive numbers. Michigan State's defense ranks 8th best in the nation when adjusted for strength of schedule faced.

Penn State ranks first in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Nittany Lions front seven should be in the Michigan State backfield early and often here. Michigan State ranks 97th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Spartans have yet to show they can do much of anything on offense against quality defenses. Penn State's defense is very good.

The weather here is another plus for the under. A low 50's temperature with 15-20 mph winds and rain that picks up as the game goes on is in the forecast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys play at the 110th fastest pace in the country (130 teams). Wyoming runs the ball consistently. The Cowboys have run the football on 76.6% of their offensive plays in conference games. They have very little passing attack, so the successful drives their offense has often take a very long time with a moving clock and small gains little by little.

Nevada plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Wolf Pack offense ranks 112th in the nation in yards per play. They haven't been able to find much to get them going offensively.

The early weather forecast calls for heavy winds in Laramie the whole week. Heavy wind played a big role in last week's game against New Mexico, and with winds things are likely to get even more conservative than normal for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have a new offensive coordinator this year, and this team is much improved on the offensive end. Southern Miss is 15th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Eagles put up 30 points against a quality LA Tech defense last week. They scored 47 points on Troy earlier this year. Their offensive numbers are pulled down a bit by being held in check by Alabama and Mississippi State, which is to be expected. This is a good Southern Miss offense.

Rice can stop the run pretty well, but the Owls aren't any good in the secondary. They rank 122nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Southern Miss should be able to take advantage.

Southern Miss had a great defense last year, but this year they have a subpar defense. Southern Miss is 122nd in the nation in yards per play allowed, and they are 129th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are playing faster this year, but they aren't playing efficiently at all on offense. Michigan is 81st in the nation in yards per play. They are up against a Penn State defense that has been tremendous this season. The Nittany Lions rank 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. I think Michigan will have a hard time putting together sustained drives against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions have a big advantage with their defensive front against the Michigan offensive line.

Penn State's offense hasn't been consistent this year. The Nittany Lions have hit quite a few big plays, but they haven't shown the ability to put together long drives against good defenses. Michigan typically does a good job not giving up big plays, and this will present a challenge for Penn State.

Both teams run the ball a little more than the average team, so we'll see a lot of moving clock. I think this is a game where points will be at a premium. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Michigan is second in the nation in explosive plays of 20 yards or more. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone though, and this is a team that is due for some positive regression when it comes to points per game. Western Michigan's offense is elite, and they aren't playing against even decent defenses in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan has been even worse in the red zone than the Broncos. The Eagles also should have some positive regression on the way. The Eagles are throwing the ball around a lot more this year and Western Michigan's defense has allowed a whopping 108 plays of 10 yards or more already this year.

Both teams should have a lot of offensive success here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington State Cougars defense has been awful this year. Washington State is allowing 6.65 ypp on the year. Colorado's defense has been even worse. The Buffaloes are giving up 6.87 ypp. These two have been even worse on defense in Pac 12 play. Washington State is allowing more than 8 yards per play in the conference. 

Both teams like to throw the ball a lot and there should be a lot of possessions in this contest. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have the slowest tempo of any team in the nation. Utah ranks 130th out of 130 in pace of play. Utah also likes to run the football early and often. Almost 65% of Utah's offensive plays are running plays. 

Arizona State's defense has been beaten badly in the passing game this year, but they have been good against the run. They haven't played a running attack as good as Utah, so they will give up some yards here. Still, Utah will be taking a lot of time off the clock and if they get held to some field goals it is a big boost for the under.

Arizona State ranks 102nd in yards per carry this year, and Utah's defense ranks the best against the run of any defense they have faced. Michigan State also excels at stopping the run, and they shut down Arizona State's offense.

Neither passing game is very good to begin with, and the weather is a key factor here too. Rain is likely later in this game, and it is expected to be windy throughout the entire game.

With both teams playing slowly and running a lot, I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had a really hard time moving the ball against quality defenses this year. Kentucky is up against a great defense here in Athens. 

Georgia's offense is very good, but they do play at a slow pace and run the football a lot. That means that while they usually move the football a lot, they take a lot of time off the clock as well.

Kentucky plays at the 95th ranked tempo out of 130 teams in the nation. Georgia ranks 113th in tempo. Both of these teams prefer to run the ball when they can.

A tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Athens earlier in the day on Saturday. The rain might stop before the game or it may be light rain here, but there will still be winds of 15 or 16 mph during this game. Additionally, this is a grass field and with rains of over an inch expected during the day on Saturday- the field might not be in very good shape. The weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are just an awful team this year. Their star running back (Vaughn) is dinged up and is listed as questionable for this game. Vanderbilt has a quarterback controversy. Neither of the quarterbacks are good. 

Missouri is a quality team this year. The Tigers are led by a defense that is 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Missouri is excellent in pass coverage, and they are above average against the run. The Tigers offense is a run heavy offense.

Missouri is very likely to be in control of this game. We have some interesting references of spots where Missouri has a large lead. The Tigers have taken their foot off the gas and had low scoring second halves multiple times.

-Missouri led Troy 42-7 at halftime and the final score was 42-10.

-Missouri led West Virginia 31-0 at halftime and the final score was 38-7

-Missouri led SE Missouri State 37-0 at halftime and the final score was 50-0

Consistently they have had very low scoring 3rd and 4th quarters in games where they lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers put up 40 points last week with backup quarterback Jack Plummer at the helm and Rondale Moore out of the lineup. That was against a weak Maryland defense though. Purdue couldn't do anything against Penn State's defense, and I'll be surprised if they have much success here against a good Iowa defense.

Moore is one of the most electrifying players in the country, and him being out is a huge loss for Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per carry, so they don't have a running game to lean on. Iowa is 16th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's offense has some potential, but they play a pretty conservative brand of football. The Hawkeyes play at a slow pace and there shouldn't be too many possessions in this game as they grind things down when they are in the lead.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse offense is a mess this year. Tommy DeVito hasn't been nearly as good as expected in this offense, and now he is trying to play through an injury. DeVito plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation as well. Not a great combination when you are trying to play through an injury and avoid getting hit. Syracuse has allowed 26 sacks in only six games. 

The Pitt Panthers defense ranks second in the nation with 27 sacks so far this year. They are going to bring a ton of pressure on DeVito in this one, and I think the Syracuse offense will likely struggle with the Pitt defensive line.

The Pitt Panthers offense ranks 108th in yards per play this year. Kenny Pickett just hasn't looked like he is in a rhythm in the passing game. Pitt has been throwing it more this year, but the strength of this Syracuse defense is their secondary. 

Take the under in this one. 

*Note- I would play for this for 4 stars down to 51.5 and for a 3 star rating down to 50*

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves love to play fast. Arkansas State ranks 19th fastest out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play. Arkansas State has also averaged a whopping 7.77 yards per play in their two Sun Belt contests thus far.

Arkansas State's defense is awful though, and they are going to give up a lot here. The Red Wolves allowed a ridiculous 722 total yards against Georgia State. They also gave up 28 points and more than 500 yards against FCS level SIU. This is a really weak defense.

Louisiana's offense didn't look good against Appalachian State, but they have arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Ragin' Cajuns scored a 47-43 win over Arkansas State last season.

Louisiana ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play on the season as a whole. These two offenses should have a lot of success.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Wyoming offense isn't any good at all. They were able to run all over the UNLV defense a couple weeks ago, but I'm not going to let that make me think their offensive woes are fixed. Wyoming can't throw the ball, and San Diego State will just key in on the run here and force Chambers to beat them through the air. I don't think he can do it.

Ryan Agnew has been really bad at quarterback for San Diego State this year. San Diego State is 126th in offensive yards per play this year. They scored a whopping 6 points against Weber State and only 24 points against an awful Colorado State defense. 

San Diego State's games this year have finished with final totals of: 6 points, 37 points, 41 points, 40 points, and 44 points. Two of Wyoming's games have finished at 37 points.

Take the under. TOP Rated play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Notre Dame's offensive statistics are skewed so far this year. Notre Dame has piled up big offensive numbers against a couple terrible defenses. Against the decent or better defenses they have faced, Ian Book and company just haven't been that good. USC isn't a great defense, but they are a lot better than some of the other units Notre Dame has played against.

USC is reliant on the passing game, and the Notre Dame secondary is excellent. Slovis is expected back for USC here, but I expect USC's passing attack to be less effective than normal because of the defense they are facing and the weather.

The weather here calls for 15 mph sustained winds with gusts of 25 mph through the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has really impressed this year. Their coaching staff is doing a tremendous job turning this team that was previously hapless on offense into a very good offensive squad. The 49ers are averaging 6.54 yards per play (26th in the country). Charlotte has been breaking big runs consistently. That's important here because the FIU front seven has been really weak against the run. Look for Charlotte's ground game to do damage here.

FIU's offense is finally starting to come around. They were an underachiever early in the year, but this offense has a lot of talent. Charlotte is way too reliant on their aggressive pass rush. FIU's offensive line grades out as above average, and I think FIU can burn Charlotte for being too aggressive on defense in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Southern Miss is now weak on defense, and they are much improved on offense in their new scheme.

North Texas has an elite quarterback in Mason Fine, and he is up against a weak Southern Miss secondary. Look at the numbers Troy's passing game put up against Southern Miss. This looks like a great spot for North Texas to pick up their production on offense.

I had this game projected at 63 points, so I'm glad to grab this one at 58.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU's defense has been shredded all season long. Marshall may have only scored 13 points last week, but the Thundering Herd put up 578 yards of offense. MTSU's defense hasn't shown me anything that would make me confident at all about their ability to slow down Florida Atlantic here. MTSU is 120th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Florida Atlantic's offense started the year struggling against good competition, but the Owls offense has been great in their last three games. Lane Kiffin's team should put up a lot of big plays here.

MTSU has been good on offense. The Blue Raiders passing attack should have a big edge on the FAU secondary which has been a clear weakness.

Both of these defenses have been fortunate in the red zone. They have been getting away with forcing teams to kick field goals or turning them over in the red zone. I expect defensive regression in points per game allowed for both teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* For the last couple weeks, Clemson has heard a lot about how they aren't as good as they were expected to be. Dabo Swinney mentioned that he is getting tired of hearing it. The Clemson offense has been a bit of a disappointment. Here is a great chance for them to get back on track.

Florida State plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, and Clemson has played quickly this year as well. The Seminoles defense has allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game, and I think Trevor Lawrence and company are in for a big day.

I see Clemson putting up a big number here and Florida State doing enough.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense looked dominant in the first quarter last weekend against Ohio State. Ohio State ended up looking great offensively in the second quarter before struggling again in the second half. That was a weird game, but Michigan State did show they have a lot of talent on the front seven defensively.

Wisconsin is a really good team, but they don't have the offensive balance Ohio State has. Wisconsin is going to run the ball over and over. Wisconsin's Jack Coan doesn't impress me in the passing game. The Badgers will lean heavily on the running game and use up a bunch of clock. Michigan State will give up some yards here to a great Wisconsin running game, but I do think they'll hold their own.

The Michigan State offense is really weak. Wisconsin is first in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Spartans don't have an explosive offense at all, and I don't think they'll be able to consistently put together long drives against Wisconsin.

The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph during the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs aren't even close to what they were a year ago on defense. I think the market has been slow to adjust to their defensive weaknesses. Mississippi State was a top five defense in the country last year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play this year. The Bulldogs have allowed 31 plays of 20 yards or more. 

Tennessee isn't a good offense, but I think Maurer gives them a better chance at quarterback than Guarantano. The Volunteers have turned it over too much this year, and if they can hold onto the ball a little better, I think they can score against teams like Mississippi State.

Mississippi State's offense should improve the rest of the way. The Bulldogs have enough weapons to be putting up better numbers than they have thus far. 

Both teams should put up a decent number of points in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in northwest Ohio. The weather calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts to 28 mph during this game. That is plenty to change the game. Neither of these offenses are as explosive as they have been in the past. 

The Bowling Green offense ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. Toledo is much better offensively, but they have shown that they are willing to slow down the game a lot once they have a lead. They should have a lead here throughout.

This is a very high total for a high wind game. These windy unders have treated me well in the past, and I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Applachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in one of the best midweek games we have had in a small conference in quite some time.

This game means everything to both teams. These are two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. 

There's no doubt both teams have been scoring machines so far this year, so you can understand a high total here. Still, this is an extremely high total for a game between two teams who run the ball often and don't play at a fast pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks defense ranks 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Oregon is far better defensively than most people realize. Cal wasn't good on offense with Garbers at quarterback, and they are even worse on offense with Modster under center. I would expect Cal to have very little success on offense in this matchup.

The Cal defense is a strong one. They rank 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed, and that is despite the fact that they have played some good offenses this year. Cal's defense is a top 25 or top 30 unit in the country. 

Oregon plays on Friday this coming week, and the Ducks may be happy to slow things down with a big lead in the second half here.

I see Cal having a hard time getting past 10 points or so here. A hard fought game between two good defenses.

Take the under. 

 *4 Star Play* Ole Miss' offense has been impressive in recent weeks. The Rebels already have a whopping 33 plays of 20 yards or more so this has been a really explosive offense. They also rank 10th in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss will continue to push the tempo here, and I don't see this weak Vanderbilt defense doing a good slowing them down. Vanderbilt has allowed 34 plays of 20 yards or more this season.

Vanderbilt's offensive numbers don't look very good so far this year, but they have played some excellent defenses. The Commodores offense should be good enough to put up a decent number against a weak Ole Miss defense here.

I had this number in the mid 60's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rice Owls have done a good job staying in games by running the football consistently and using up the play clock. Rice is much better defensively than they were a year ago as well. The coaching staff knows they don't have much of a chance at all in high scoring games, and they are doing a nice job dictating the tempo. 

UAB's offense is way down from the last couple years. The offensive line went from a strength to a weakness. The Blazers still have a very strong defense, and Bill Clark is a defensive minded coach as well.

Expect a lot of running plays and a slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* When these two teams get together, I like to look for the under. Both of these offenses usually have the upper hand against a normal opponent because that opponent isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That isn't the case when they play each other though. 

Both of these defenses see almost exactly the same offense they will face in this game every day in practice. That gives the defense a strong advantage.

Also, both of these teams run the ball at such a high rate and play at a slow tempo. We should see some drives that take a ton of time off the game clock. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense has really impressed me so far this year. MTSU ranks 45th in the nation in yards per play despite facing Michigan, Iowa, and Duke in three of their four games thus far. They are airing it out eraly and often, and Marshall's secondary has been really weak so far this year. 

Marshall has been doing damage on the ground this season. Marshall ranks 17th in the nation in yards per carry. MTSU ranks 122nd in yards per carry allowed. The Thundering Herd have multiple running options in the backfield at all times, and I would expect some big plays from them here. 

Both teams prefer to play at a pretty brisk pace normally, and I think there will be enough possessions here.

The hot temperature (90 degrees) is helpful too- overs have done well in hot weather games in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I view both of these teams as having clearly better defenses than offenses. Iowa State has had some unfortunate bounces and they have had poor luck on red zone defense. The Cyclones are 23rd in the nation in yards per play allowed though, and they have played some solid offenses. TCU ranks 9th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Gary Patterson's team is almost always well prepared defensively. 

There is bad weather in the forecast here, which is clearly another positive. With wind and rain that should make both of these offenses even more conservative and predictable. 

Look for a close low scoring battle here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The forecast in Laramie calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts to 40 mph during this game. That kind of wind is enough to make a huge difference in a game. 

Wyoming and UNLV are already fairly predictable offensively. These are two bottom five passing offenses in the nation. The passing game will be even less of an option with this weather. Expect both teams to load up the box and dare their opposition to try to throw it over them.

UNLV plays at a moderate pace, and Wyoming plays very slowly. UNLV does have a lot of potential in the running game normally, but Wyoming is 13th in the nation in ypc allowed. Wyoming's running attack will move the ball here, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Field goals will definitely be difficult in this weather as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The pace between these two should be especially quick. Arkansas State has a backup quarterback here or this would have been a bigger play for me. I still think the Red Wolves can have enough offensive success here though.

Troy has been excellent on offense thus far this year, and I think they can take advantage of a weak Arkansas State secondary. Troy has big play ability and they have a veteran signal caller.

Both defenses have given up a bunch of explosive this year. Look for a quick pace with plenty of big plays to get us to a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are typically a pretty conservative team under Chris Petersen. Petersen is a great coach, and he should have his team ready for this game. Clay Helton isn't a good coach. USC has a lot of talent, but it's hard to say how prepared they will be here.

USC starts quarterback Matt Fink here. Fink had good numbers last week against Utah, but he threw a lot of jump balls that ended up working out. Washington's secondary is definitely better than the Utah secondary though, and I'm not confident Fink will look as good here.

Washington should have the lead here, and they play at a slow tempo. They will run it more often late in the game if they are in the lead.

Also important to note is the weather. The forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers during this game in the pacific northwest. There will be 11 mph winds and gusts to 22 mph. That is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals offense looks different this year with Drew Plitt at quarterback. Ball State is airing it out far more often than they did in recent seasons. Plitt has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions so far this year. He is completing a whopping 70.6% of his passes. 

Ball State ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. They will try to play as quickly as possible here. They are also likely to be behind, which should make them play even quicker and be even more pass heavy. The Cardinals offense has been much better than most expected this season.

NC State has gotten decent production from their offense this year, and Ball State's defense is very weak. Ball State has very little pass rush, and I think they'll give up quite a few big plays here.

While NC State's defense is good, they are much better against the run than the pass. This secondary isn't great and I think Ball State can score enough to get over this reasonable total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Over* Texas State ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Georgia State ranks 24th in the nation in tempo. Two top 25 teams in pace of play should mean a lot of possessions here. 

Georgia State ranks 129th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. Texas State ranks 119th in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have been terrible. 

Texas State is allowing nearly 6 yards per play, and Georgia State is going to run it early and often here. They should be able to expose the weakness of the Texas State run defense here.

Texas State's new OC Bob Stitt wants them to air it out early and often. How much are they throwing it? Texas State has thrown the football on a whopping 68% of their offensive plays so far this year. If it weren't for some terrible turnovers in plus territory, Texas State's offense would have scored a lot more points so far this year.

Plenty of tempo from both teams and two very weak offenses. 

Take the over. 5 Star TOP Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB has typically been a good rushing offense, but the Blazers are averaging only 3.24 ypc yards per carry so far this year. That's bad to start with, but when you consider they have played Alabama State and Akron that is especially bad.

UAB does still have a very solid defense. Though they have played two bad teams, they have allowed only 20 plays of 10 yards or more and 7 plays of 20 yards or more. 

South Alabama has improved defensively from a year ago. This is a team that is being coached to try to avoid giving up the big play this year. UAB moves slowly so even when they score it is likely to take quite a bit of time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a really strong offense. Western Michigan has very nice balance. They rank 9th in the nation in yards per play. The Broncos have 22 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. The Syracuse defense has been a disappointment. The Orange have allowed a whopping 48 plays of 10 yards or more already this season.

Syracuse's offense hasn't looked good so far this year. They have played a pretty tough schedule though, and Western Michigan's defense is very weak. Remember, Western Michigan's defense made Michigan State's very weak offense look great just a couple weeks ago.

Syracuse will push the pace, and their offense should look a lot better here. Western Michigan's offense should be able to move the ball a lot as well.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* Texas State’s new offensive scheme is a good one. They couldn’t get anything going against Texas A&M, but they moved the ball easily against Wyoming. Texas State’s turnovers and missed FG’s make it look like their offense wasn’t that good. The score doesn’t reflect how well their offense played. They also played much faster than they did in week one. Bob Stitt’s system is being implemented.

SMU looks much better offensively with a good quarterback to run Sonny Dykes’ system. They have put up 37 and 49 points in their first two contests. Take the over.

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

Both of these teams always circle this game. It’s an important rivalry game for these two schools. These rivalry games make me lean to the under to start with, and in the recent games against each other the under has had value.

Ohio has decided to slow the tempo down drastically. They rank as the 9th slowest team in the nation pace wise. Marshall is also slightly slower than an average team in tempo.

This is too high of a number. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans offense will likely throw the ball a lot this year with a veteran quarterback and a good group of wide receivers. 

Southern Miss had an elite defense last year, but they lost a ton of players from that unit. The Golden Eagles aren't bad defensively, but they aren't close to last year's level.

Southern Miss is playing quicker and they are going to take more shots downfield in their new offensive scheme. Look for them to be able to get some big gainers on a Troy secondary that is questionable.

This total is a few points too low. 

The over is 40-17 in Troy's last 57 non-conference games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen defense is atrocious. They allowed 48 points against a terrible Rutgers offense in week one. They then gave up 45 points to Southern Illinois (a subpar FCS team) in week two. I’ve been really impressed with the Charlotte offense under their new head coach. They rolled up more than 500 yards of offense against Appalachian State last week. 

UMass has allowed a ridiculous 33 plays of 10 yards or more in just two games. Charlotte has been explosive on offense already this year. They have 34 plays of 10 yards or more offensively in two games. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 of the country in total defense. UMass should score enough here, and Charlotte is likely to put up a big number. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa/Iowa State under- Brock Purdy is a good quarterback for Iowa State, but he lacks weapons around him. Iowa State’s front seven on defense is amazing. Iowa always plays slowly and has a fairly cautious game plan. The Hawkeyes once again have a very good defense. This is a rivalry game where points are at a premium normally. I don’t see that being any different this season. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* Graham Harrell’s offense looked great last weekend in USC’s win over Stanford. Slovis is a nice fit at quarterback, and he has some extremely talented receivers around him. USC is playing very quickly as well. This USC defense is way down from where it was a few years ago. USC ranks 78th in YPP allowed so far this year, and they haven’t even played great offenses. BYU’s offense should be improved with Wilson at the helm.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The last three games between Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati have finished with a total of 47, 38, and 21 points. Last year's game was played in poor weather, so that one should be discounted at least somewhat. Still, this has been a low scoring series for quite some time. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two.

This is a game that means a lot to both teams. Miami Ohio is in Oxford, which is only about 50 minutes from Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been winning in this series consistently, but there have been a bunch of close low scoring games.

Cincinnati's defense looked bad last week against Ohio State, but the Bearcats defense was excellent last year, and they certainly aren't playing an offense similar in any fashion to Ohio State here in the Miami Ohio Redhawks. 

Miami only ran for 2.4 ypc against Iowa in week one. The Redhawks totaled only 245 yards. In fact, Miami only had 349 yards against Tennessee Tech last weekend. There are a lot of questions about this Miami offense. They are young at quarterback, and he isn't surrounded by very much talent. 

Cincinnati's offense was due for some regression after their amazing success on 3rd down and long last year. The Bearcats are good on offense, but Miami's defense is the strength of their team. The Redhawks won't be able to stop Cincinnati, but I think they can slow them down.

In terms of tempo, Miami is 91st in the country and Cincinnati is 120th. There won't be any fast paced play going on here. I think both defenses do a good enough job of preventing explosive plays to make this under very valuable. 

Miami is running the ball nearly 60% of the time so far this year, and Cincinnati runs it on 63% of their plays. Running clock is always helpful.

I had this one lined quite a few points lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest pushes pace about as much as anyone in the country. North Carolina wants to play quicker this year as well. The Tar Heels have faced two good defenses in the first two weeks. The Wake Forest defense isn’t good. Wake Forest has put up big numbers in back to back games, and I think they’ll be able to score plenty again here. Lots of pace and a lot of scoring from each side. Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* Western Kentucky will look to play faster and air it out under Helton this year. The Hilltoppers defense was taken advantage of by Central Arkansas last week. FIU has a very efficient offense and I would expect FIU to take advantage of Western Kentucky's secondary here.

FIU faced a much tougher defensive line in Tulane last week and that bothered them. They don't face anything similar here from Western Kentucky.

Look for a lot of scoring in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Florida State was clicking on all cylinders in the first half last week against Boise State. They stalled out in a big way in the second half. Expect Kendal Briles to have some fixes for this week. The Seminoles have a huge talent advantage against the LA Monroe Warhawks here.

Importantly, Florida State was playing 5 seconds per play quicker than they did a year ago. The Seminoles played at the 2nd quickest pace of any team in the country in week one. I think they can put up a big number here.

Monroe has a veteran quarterback and a pretty good offense. They won't score too many, but it should be enough to get this past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Baylor ranked 125th in red zone offense last year. They had some very untimely turnovers in the red zone last year, and I would expect much better from them with another year in this system and a veteran quarterback in Charlie Brewer. Brewer has improved weapons around him, and this offensive line is definitely better than a year ago.

UTSA has nowhere to go but up compared to last year on offense. They still won't be good on offense, but they will be improved. They have a new offensive coordinator who has helped them have a better scheme.

Baylor's offense is way too good for this UTSA defense. The UTSA secondary is a major weakness, and I would expect Baylor to have a lot of guys running wide open in this one. The Bears have picked up their tempo a bit as well.

The extreme heat (100 degrees) is helpful for an over as well. There are multiple strong angles regarding taking the over in a hot game. 

Look for Baylor to put up a big number here and UTSA to do enough to get this past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is way down from a year ago. Nebraska will push the tempo in a big way here, and I think this number is lower than it should be based on Nebraska's struggles last week. Nebraska's offense should get right this week and put up a big number here.

The Colorado offense is really dangerous with Montez and Shenault as the stars of the unit. Look for them to be able to find holes in this Nebraska secondary. 

I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mississippi State's defense was amazing last year. While I don't think they will be bad this year, they lost nearly everything from last season on the defensive end. The Bulldogs defense is going to give up a lot more than they did a year ago.

On the other side of the ball, Tommy Stevens is likely a good fit for the Bulldogs offense due to the fact that he has worked with Joe Moorhead in the past and knows this offense well.

Southern Miss has a new offensive coordinator this year. He was an assistant at Arkansas State, and I would expect Southern Miss to turn up the tempo this year and pick up more big gainers. Southern Miss has a strong offensive line and the Golden Eagles offense should be far more efficient this year than it was a year ago.

Both of these teams played in a lot of low scoring contests last year, which has kept this number down enough to give us value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers aired it out early and often last week against Nevada. Purdue averaged 6.41 yards per play, so they moved the ball well. Turnovers were a big problem for the Boilers. Vanderbilt has had a strong secondary in the past, but they lost a lot from that unit, and I would expect Purdue's excellent group of wide receivers to be able to do damage against this secondary. Elijah Sindelar is a quarterback capable of throwing a pick six on a questionable decision or completing a long touchdown. The Boilermakers tempo was more than two seconds per play faster than last season in their week one game, and that is despite the fact they led for much of that game.

Vanderbilt said in the preseason they would play somewhat faster under their new offensive coordinator, and that was true in week one. They faced an elite defense in Georgia last week, but this Purdue defense is far worse. Purdue gives up too many big plays. Riley Neal and the Vanderbilt offense should move the ball pretty well here too.

I had this number at 60, so we are getting several points of value.

Take the over.