Lions -2.5 (4-Dime OE play)
Lions come off the by and have been great at home score 44 and 32 against two pretty good teams in the Rams and the Eagles. Sunday they'll be looking to do it against the Redskins a bottom of the league defense. Redskins are better than what they have shown no doubt on defense, but playing a team like the Lions after a bye is a dangerous task that I don't think they'll be able to deliver on with a less than 100% McNabb. We have cashed in on the REdskins many times this year including last weeks 5.5 Dime POD, but this week we feel it necessary to fade them as I really like how the Lions have played against a very tough schedule. They have come to play every week and this week with Stafford back they'll have a lot of juice.

49ers -2 (4.4 Dime POD);

49ers get Troy Smith to start at QB and I think he adds a completely new dynamic to this game. Ya he's short, yes he can have trouble inside the pocket throwing, but at the end of the day I think he's going to provide a huge spark for this team here today. Broncos just got a big beat down from the Raiders last week and I think the 49ers will hurt them with Frank Gore here today as they are ranked 30th defending the run. Troy Smith will get outside the pocket and make plays that Alex Smith could not. I really like the line movement on this game despite all the public being on the Broncos.

Indiana +3.5 betonline (5.5 Dime POD) & +150 (1.5 Dime Bonus!)
I love Indiana this week this is not a good match up for Northwestern and if you recall they were down 25-0 last year before Indiana choked that lead away. The last three meetings have all been decided by 6 points. Northwestern is off a devastating home loss as they blew a 17 point lead and I don't think they recover from that this week.

Northwestern's 88th passing defense will be tested by Ben Chapel and Tandon Doss at WR who are ranked 6th in passing offense. Their secondary has been just awful. I remember having Northwestern at home against Central Michigan and they could not stop the team down the stretch. Central Michigan did lose 30-25 but were just -5 yards on the road. Reason I bring this up is Central Mich has very similar rankings. They are one dimensional 19th pass 96th run and they feature a subpar defense much like Indiana. But Indiana has a better offense and will take advantage of Northwestern's weakness on offense which I'll get to in a minute.

Both teams have similar defense ranked 67th and 77th with Northwestern better, but they have faced an average opponent ranked 71st in total offense while Indiana has faced 51st. Facing Michigan and Ohio State and Illinois is much more impressive than a resume of Northwestern that has only Michigan State.

This is a must win for Indiana if they hope to go bowling with Wisconsin and Penn State up next. The closest team that Indiana has faced that compared to what Northwestern is would be Arkansas State as they too have a pass game and a below average running game. Indiana beat that team 36-34 and out gained them by 158 yards at home. Indiana has only allowed 7 sacks this year on 295 attempts so Chapel will have the quick time to throw in what is a dink and dunk offense much like Northwestern is. The difference is Northwestern's offensive line is abysmal.

They have given up 25 sacks this year and Indiana will finally get a pass rush. ON defense they look bad, but they have had some decent stops when they have to come up with them. Persa should have over 300 yards passing against, but Indiana and Ben Chapel will have more. Northwestern's run game has been awful as their running backs have less than 4ypc and have had fumbling issues. Other factors are Northwestern's kicking game which has been awful. Demos has missed 7 field goals (2 blocked) and 4 extra points (1 blocked). This does not bode well for what will be a close game. Home team has won all three of the last games and they will again today.

NC State +4 -105 bodog (4.4 Dime POD)
NC State will host Florida State for the division lead. Both come off byes and will be plenty prepared for this game. Many have said Florida State's defense has improved well we will find out tonight as Florida State gave up 349 yards passing and 5 TD's in a 45-42 win at home against NC State and Russell Wilson a year ago.

One thing is for sure both teams are better and right now Florida State is hotter as they won 5 in a row and NC State just lost to East Carolina. So that's why you see NC State as a home dog here, but I'm not buying into FSU just yet. This is just the second time they are facing a team with a passing game in the top 20. The first time they lost 17-47 at Oklahoma. NC State has a better passing game ranked #7 and a similar rushing attack ranked 83rd. I also like the fact that NC State has faced a much stronger schedule. Their offense has faced an average defense ranked 48th, while FSU has faced 64th. On defense NC State has seen an average offensive attack ranked 53rd, while FSU stands in at 69th. I just feel NC State has been tested on both sides of the ball on a consistent basis. The key will be can they stop the run. They got killed on the ground against Virginia Tech which is the closest resemblance of what FSU does which is run the ball. Virginia Tech is a bit better than FSU on both sides of the ball yet NC State led 24-13 in the third and 27-21 in the 4th quarter and were losing 34-30 before a garbage TD with 34 seconds left. They were +67 yards despite the loss. I believe the time off has allowed them to put together a plan for a one dimensional offense and FSU's QB Skinner will have some issues here as he is not 100%.

Another key is whether or not Wilson will turn the ball over when he doesn't NC State has the passing game to compete with any. I still don't like Florida State's secondary they are still young and Oklahoma's Landry Jones just tore him up. Boston College's pass game is awful so the 10 pass defenses do not surprise me. FSU has just 6 picks this year so Wilson's INT problems shouldn't be a huge issue going into tonight.

La Tech +38 -110 (4.4 Dime POD)
Let's get the week started off on a high note with La Tech heading to the blue turf as monster under dogs. This team only lost by 10 a year ago to Boise and to start the year they have faced a much more challenging schedule with three top 10 passing attacks and 4 top defenses inside the top 37! Boise really can not say the same as they have faced yes a cup cake schedule despite facing virginia tech to open who we know was just awful early in the season Boise faced Oregon State at home who is also not as advertised. Overall they have faced an average defense ranked 91st with 4 of the 6 opponents in the 100's in total defense. Same goes on the other side of the ball as their #1 claimed total defense in the nation is solid no doubt, but look at who they have played. An average 95th ranked offense. They really haven't faced a balanced attack at all this year.

This line is inflated because the public 85% on Boise to start are buying in that Boise has to do something to prove they are worth be ranked #1, but 38 points against a solid LA tech team that is 51st in total offense 42nd pass, 61st run and that's them facing an average 50th defense including TX AM, Navy, Southern Miss and a surprising Hawaii team. On defense their ranks are bad no doubt 113th overall but htey have faced some top flight offenses already with some big passing games. Any teams numbers would look a little down in this spot.

Both teams have had some extra time off to prepare and I think that really benefits LA Tech in terms of covering this whopping 38 point spread. LA tech has been on fire in their past two games gaining 1,110 yards behind QB Ross Jenkins and RB Lennon Creer who has back to back 100 yard games. LA tech runs a fast-paced offense out of the spread that could give Boise some problems as they will play lose with trick plays.

Cowboys -3 -120 betus (4.8 Dime POD)
I like the Cowboys here I think they get rid of the mistakes when they are at home again here. Cowboys have had a very difficult schedule to start the season and now they come home to play an inter division battle with the Giants who swept them a year ago. Cowboys have talent it's all the mental mistakes that have held them back. Cowboys are #3 in total yards on offense and #3 in total yards allowed on defense, but they are #28 and #31 in points scored and allowed. The two do not go hand in hand. Many know this and I think they finally put their act together here tonight.

Vikings +3 -110 bodog (4-Dime Play)
I like the Vikes tonight as Favre is starting to click with the offense as they looking more and more healthy with Percy harvin and Randy Moss. On the other side the Packers are beat up with injuries all over the place and I think they'll continue to struggle here against a Viking team that is going to start rounding into form. Packers are 21st against the run and I think the Vikings and Adrian Peterson will control the game. Minny is #6 vs. the pass and that's a bad match up for a Packers team that can't seem to run the ball going against the strength of this Vikings team.

Redskins +3 -110 (5.5 Dime POD)
First of all if you are buying into a Redskins total defense ranked dead last you are not paying attention. Redskins have arguably the toughest schedule starting the year in terms of the offenses their defense have had to go against. They had the Packers, Cowboys, Colts, Texans, and the Eagles. Those are total offense ranks of 13, 2, 4, 5, and 3. With the Rams coming in at 20th as their other opponent. Hard for any defense to look good, but now they face Cutler and the Bears.

Cutler is a dynamic player if he wants to be, but he makes too many poor decisions and his offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. He's been sacked 15 times in his last two games and I don't see them winning this game despite being at home. Their offenses doesn't do anything well ranked in the bottom third in every offensive statistical category including 29th in total offense, 22, 26 in pass/run offense and 22nd in points scored. Now they do have a solid defense especially against the run, but they are 18th vs. the pass the strength of an improving passing game from McNabb that's already ranked 9th. McNabb gets better every week and the running game has started to click a little with Ryan Torrain who knows Shanahan's offense being able to put up some big numbers. At the end of the day this will be a low scoring defensive game and I trust McNabb over Cutler to not make mistakes.

LSU +6 +100 Matchbook (5.5Dimes)+195 (1-Dime)
I love LSU in this spot and I think they have more talent than Auburn. Everyone says LSU has no offense, but the fact of the matter is they have faced some very good defense in and out of conference. An average defense ranked 42nd including 39th vs. the pass. LSU just caught a break as they face Auburn who can not stop anyone ranked 108th on pass defense. This will be the worst defense LSU has faced all year and that will help them big time in this game. Florida is the closest thing to Auburn who is ranked 82nd vs. the pass and LSU won on the road 33-29. LSU has the best defense and I'll take defense over offense anytime they also have arguably the best special teams in the SEC too. I think Jarret Lee and Jordan Jefferson are going to give Auburn plenty of problems. WR is deep for LSU and they have talent all over the field. LSU also comes off what looks like a bye as they faced Mcnese State last week and they have a real bye after this game before facing Alabama. Right now LSU has much more focus on this game while Auburn had to play Arkansas a week ago.

Just like LSU hasn't faced a defense this bad.. Auburn has not faced a defense this good. So that's two things in our direction that give me confidence. The last time they faced a defense that could sniff what LSU can do was Miss St and they squeeked by 17-14 on the road. We already know LSU is better than MIss State ast hey beat them 29-7 this year. Hold on Auburn we got a 15th ranked rush defense that looks good against LSU. Not that it matters because Auburn is so so bad vs. the pass, but their rush defense is over rated because most people bomb away vs. Auburn and they have only faced one team ranked in the top 50 in rush offense. This is just like the last two games I chose as my POD with Wisconsin vs. Nebraska.. Nebraska facing a new test.. and Michigan facing a new test after all the hype against Michigan State. Both games I got out right victories I believe the same happens here on Saturday.

Cincinnati -8 4.4 dime pod

There is this thought that Cincinnatti has the worst defense in the Big East and I do not agree. Statistically they have given up 366 yards per game, but let

Jaguars +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
Normally like the Titans as I think they are under rated but this is a bad match up for them on their second week in a row on the road. Jaguars are a tough beat at home just ask the Colts. They can run the ball better than the Titans and have a solid run stop unit them selves. This game is normally all about running the ball and stopping the run. Both teams do that extremely well and I say push there. Difference is QB and pass defense and both teams have bad pass defenses ranked 26th Titans and 29th Jaguars. Advantage Jaguars for being home again as playing QB on the road is not the same. Plus Garrard has been really accurate and avoiding the turnovers with 33-42 with 341 passing yards and 5 TD 1 Int in his last two games both wins. Think the Jaguars win outright like they did last year by 20 points at home. home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 match ups between these two!

Falcons +2 -110 betus (5.5 Dime Pod)
Falcons already won on the road against the Saints and I think this is an easier trip for them going to Philly where they haven't had much success but that is about to change this year. Matt Ryan and his #2 running game should be able to move the ball against an Eagls run defense ranked #24. Eagles are banged up and Kolb starts again this tim against a Falcons #10 defense which is #2 in scoring defense. Eagles can score points, but their game changes a lot with Kolb in and Vick out. I think he'll struggle and I think the Falcons will take this game out right!

Wisconsin +4.5 -110 bodog (5-Dime POD)
Wisconsin has been pointing to this game and it all starts up front. In years past Clay has been stopped by Ohio State, but I feel he can make a statement in this game at home and I feel the Wisconsin defense is being under rated. I like Wisky here today Ohio State now #1 is about to have their dreams shattered as they really have not been tested all year their defense ranked #3 and #4 against the run has faced an average offense ranked 84th. Wisconsin will be the best offense they have faced. Wisconsin dominated the game last year and although they lost 31-13 they know they should have won as they held Ohio State to 184 yards and had the ball for 42:47. Normally you see a win for that kind of domination. Again I expect both teams to be heavily on the ground and for the game to be decided by a touchdown. Wisconsin already got a gut check against Michigan State and now it's Ohio State's turn as they haven't faced anyone with a pulse yet.

Marshal +6 -110 (4.4 Dime) Marshall +200 (1-Dimes) BODOG
This is a huge game for Marshall if they want to go bowling this year. I believe this team is drastically under rated and it'll show tonight against one of the favorites in the C-USA to win in UCF. Not only does Marshall have 4 extra days to prepare, but they are home where they play significantly better football including their 3 point loss to West Virginia a team that has a better defense than these hyped up Knights.

Now the Knights are one dimensional they runt he ball 65.5% of the time so I think there is a case for Marshall to keep this one in reach and win it in the end. Look for DE Vin Curry and LB Mario Harvey (11 tackles) in last years 1 point loss to give freshmen QB Godfrey plenty of problems. Head Coach of Marshall John

NYJ/MIN U39 -110 (4.4 UNITS)
This total is way too high in my opinion for a game that is going to be won by running the ball and scoring defense. Both teams are ranked at the top in scoring defenses. The Jets #7 and the Vikings #2. The Vikings have struggled mightily on defense and they get Randy Moss to add to Favre's weapons.. The bye week helped, but Favre faces a Jets defense that will look to keep him in check with the return of Pace and Revis.. I think Favre starts to put it together soon here, but not this week on the road against one of the better pass defenses in the league when healthy and now they are. Peterson will get lots of rushes and the same goes on the other side of the ball. Vikings also have a top 10 rush defense that will be put to test by the #1 running game.. Again I don't see the Jets being able to do much with the running game and the Vikings have an under rated secondary ranked #7 and they faced the Saints who like to bomb it away as well as the Lions who normally pass 75% of the time yet they are still ranked at #7. The Jets #4 scoring offense may open some eyes and be jumping in bed with Mark Sanchez, but he has faced some very bad secondaries and overall defenses in the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots. I think he struggles and the Jets will run a lot tonight.

Lions -3 -110 betonline (5.5 Dime POD)
Love the Lions in this spot despite being 0-4 they have played three of their four games on the road and all 4 have been against teams that arguably look playoff bound in the Eagles, Vikings, Bears and Packers. They didn't get blown out in either of these games and I think back home to play the Rams is a good thing. Rams are 2-2, but they have played Cardinals(not the same), Oakland, Redskins, and the Seahawks. They have the 21st pass defense while the Lions continue to look strong in the passing game ranked #7, but expect the Lions to take advantage of the weak run defense the Rams have.

On defense the Lions have held their own I've seen them make goal line stops against the Bears and I was impressed. I don't think Stephen Jackson who terrorized this team a year ago will do it again he seems to be injured still or has lost a step as he's averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. With Suh and the acquisition of Vanden Bosch have really given this team a new look on defense. The ranks are not that great, but considering who they have played I think it's still quite impressive.

Michigan State +4.5 (5-Dime POD)

Michigan is getting the praises every where and Denard Robinson can do no wrong thus far this season, but hold on have they even played a defense that can stop anyone? Indiana is one of the worst out there yet when they needed to get a stop when Michigan had the ball up a TD they did. Now they have faced a defense with an average rank all around over 90th. Michigan State comes in with the best all around linebacker Greg Jones and all American candidate Eric Gordon and sure CB tackler Chris Rucke in hand to stop Denard.

I

Kansas St +12 -110 BODOG (4-Dime POD)
This is the biggest Kansas State game in quite some time and it has all the recipes for a low scoring game. I'm going with the home dog here.. I think there is still much much more to see from Nebraska before they are ranked #7. Remember they have a rookie back their in Martinez at QB that is the majority of their offense with 496 yards rushing alone. Martinez is prone to throw interceptions and fumble the ball and going up against a Kansas State defense at home that is ranked #13 against the pass this should be a run first offense for Nebraska shortening the game. Nebraska has fumbled the ball 16 times already this season with 7 of them being lost to opponent. Odds would tell you against the best defense they've faced all year in the first true road game that they would have some mistakes again. Nebraska ranked #14 in total offense has faced an average 85 total defense with South Dakota an D1 AA team not being factored in those statistics and they held them to 17 points.

Kansas State on the offense side figures to do the same thing on offense run the ball. Though they have experience behind center in Sr. Coffman this is a run first team with their Sr. star Daniel Thomas who had 19 carries and 99 yards last year vs. a better Nebraska run stop unit. This year's Nebraska team has given up 2 100 yard runners already and those came against Western Kentucky and South Dakota. People are saying Nebraska has the better run stop unit with #53 rank but they have faced an average #71 run offense while Kstate ranked 102nd have faced an average 36th rushing attack. I think it's closer than people think and with Nebraska getting most of their rushing offense from the rookie QB I think Kansas State with DAniel Thomas has the better running game. He's got 628 yards and 6 TD's this year and I expect him to get 30+ carries tonight which again will shorten the game. If Kansas State scores first we cover it's imperative that they get off to a strong start so that they don't have to turn to a passing game vs. arguably the best secondary from Nebraska. Again Kansas State is tested facing some good secondaries thus far and that's partially the reason for their 103rd passing rank also they sure do run a lot. I believe Snyder pulls out all the plays tonight and I would not be surprised if he takes some shots early so Nebraska doesn't load the box.

Special teams is pretty much even. Nebraska has the better kicker and Kansas State has the better return man with William Powell returning 32 yards per return. Nebraska is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Knasas State and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 as favorites more than 10.5 points.

UAB +13 -110 Sportsbook3.3 Dime Play)
Both of these teams are quite similar in the fact that they are coming off rough losses as UCF lost at Kansas State and UAB lost in double OT to Tennessee.

I'm more impressed by UAB and I think this is an error UAB has faced 4 FBS schools while UCF played South Dakota in their first game. UAB might be the best offense that UCF has faced yet as they are ranked 28th overall in the nation, but have started to get it done big time with their dual threat QB situation with pocket passer Bryan Ellis over 700 yards passing the last two weeks and David Isabelle who can run it. Now this also may be the best defense UAB has faced, but I think Tennessee's D still has plenty of athletes and UAB ran all over them putting up 544 total yards. Just ask LSU if Tenn has a decent defense. But again that's still not why I'm picking UAB. UAB's defense is under rated as their ranks tell you otherwise.. Their weakness is in pass defense 107th, but they have faced some pretty good passing teams including Troy ranked #6. for an average 42nd rank. UCF really struggles passing the game and if UCF runs the ball a lot UAB has the 46th ranked rush defense.

UCF has gone back and forth at the most critical position on the field QB. They will have their hands full with UAB defense that is under rated full of speed and athleticism as they held Tennessee to just 245 total yards and 42 rushing yards. Head Coach George O'Leary is saying he'll play both freshman Jeff Godfrey and junior Rob Calabrese. Godfrey as a starter had jsut 222 yards and completed only 23 of 42 passes.

The strength of UCF is defense for sure and they have looked good all year long keeping them in games.. But that does not equal beating a team by two TD's which is what they have to do today against UAB. I don't see it happening considering the way UAB's offense is clicking and their win against Troy looks that much better after Troy's defense dominated a pretty good MTSU team last night on the road. This team has always put up good offensive numbers against Central Florida in the last two years they have put up 911 yards combined.

Middle Tenn -3 -120 buy

Dolphins pk -110 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like the Dolphins here as they have shown that they are not only about the wild cat. The Patriots have struggled in Miami and the Dolphins have played well on MOnday nights here. Patriots offense looks as good as any, but their defense is as bad as any and now they start a rookie at CB in Kyle Arrington a guy in his second year out of Hofstra, a school that doens't even have a football program any longer. They are already #28 against the pass this team gave up 30 points to the Bills. Dolphins are bitter about the loss the the Jets and the Patriots don't have the defense to win this game.. I think the Dolphins are capable of coming up with some stops considering Brady and the Patriots offense is one dimensional. I'll go with the home team with the better defense, and more balanced offensive attack every day of the week. This line has been moving towards the dolphins all week despite only 33% of the money coming in on them.

Redskins +6 -110 bodog (4.4 Dime POD)
Redskins were clearly looking ahead after getting beat by the Rams last week, but that's an improved Rams team to be quite honest. Redskins however are going to be fighting for their QB on Sunday. All the rave on Vick is legit he looks like a complete QB thus far, but I need to see more as he just went up against #30 and #29 defenses. This is a division game that is always played close. I don't see this game being warranted 6 points to either team. Redskins led with 11 minutes to go last year in Philly 24-16 before McNabb brought his team back. McNabb now on the Skins and starting to get really comfortable as the REdskins are #11 in total offense which is miles from where they were a year ago. Their #32 defense is not as bad as it looks as they have faced two top 5 offenses in Dallas and Houston. Washington 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings and Philly looked bad against a good opponent at home the last time against the Packers.

Boston College +3 -110 bodog (5-Dime PLAY)
If you have followed me you know how much of a believer I am in fading Notre Dame. We have been on all three of their losses ATS and I believe this will be the third. Only 28% is on Boston College and I'm loving it because I guess nobody has been watching this Notre Dame team close enough. Sure the passing game has clicked, but this defense is still a mess and Kelly was never the type of coach that was going to improve a defensive mess left by Charlie Weis.

Last week we were disapointed in BC against Vtech as we had them, and a closer look shows multiple chances for Boston to have scored TD's. It was 3 turnovers and poor clock management before half time that did not get them into the endzone. The defense was solid once again and this is a strong team up front that will stop Armando Allen without a blink. With that said Crist is going to pass, but a one dimensional Notre Dame team facing the best defense that reminds me a lot of Stanford all year. The atmosphere is going to be crazy in Boston a night game in front 45,000 screaming fans. Notre Dame will have all kinds of issues with the BC offensive line that was able to get 111 yards on 19 carries for Montel Harris vs. a Virginia Tech front that is playing out of it's mind right now that was the one bright spot for the Eagles that will get carried over.

BC has elected to bench Shinske which is a good thing.. I think BC surprises ND early with some play action. Notre Dame is giving up 190 yards per game on the ground and with this huge O-line BC should finally be able to find the endzone. Again the key is can BC stop the passing game and I say yes. Notre Dame has not faced good passing defense which has led to the early success of Crist. The best one they faced was Stanford last weekend and although Crist through for over 304 yards against the nations 11th ranked pass defense he got most of that in garbage time and he did throw an interception. The other three teams are ranked 96th, 104th, and 61st in pass defense respectfully. Believe it or not BC will have an offense this week with a new QB and it'll be a game dominated by time of possession for the Eagles.

Indiana +10.5 -110 Bodog (5.5 POD) Indiana +330 (1.5 Dime Bonus)
81% of the public is backing a Michigan team favored by double digits on the road in conference that has proven WHAT? Okay they have the #1 offense as of right now in the land I'll give them that, but they have gotten that done against an average 92nd ranked defense. Indiana is playing decent on O but that's not where they'll win this game. More on the offense of Michigan that week by week gets weaker in my opinion as there is more and more tape on them. Denard Robinson injured his knee and he'll play but not sure how healthy he'll be. This could be a look ahead game for Michigan as they face Michigan State next week. This could be a huge mistake for them as the Wolverine defense has not been able to stop ANYONE on offense. I remind you they started 4-0 last year and dropped 7 of their last 8 games.

Indiana has been pointing to this game since last year. With the bulk of their offense returning from the team that lost 33 to 36 on the road they are ready. Ben Chapel is mighty capable of thowing against a Michigan defense that gave up 200+ pass yards to CT, Umass, and Bowling Green three teams that are not known for their air attack. Chapel has 9 TD's 0 Int's and 72.4% pass completion. This is going to be a shoot out and don't forget about their running back Willis as he racked up 152 yards on 16 carries a year ago. Chapel's targets in Celcher, Turner and Doss will give the Wolverines tons of issues early on Saturday and they won't be ready. Not to mention Michigan's special teams has been dreadful as they are among the worst in the nation in punt returns and they are still looking for a kicker. This could be huge in a shoot out game if Indiana can force some 3rd and longs.

Utah St +4.5 BODOG -110 (4.4 Dime pod)
I like Utah State in this spot at home against an equally bad team. I think Utah State has actually looked better on the offensive side of the ball with QB Diondre Borel a dual threat QB. He is the type of QB BYU has had issues with this season. Utah State is not getting respect at home because BYU is still BYU in the eyes of many including the public that is betting them 65% and this line opened at +6, but the smart money is coming in on Utah State moving this line to +4.5 and +4 in some places. Overall Utah State's O is ranked 51st in total offense and that's against an average 67th ranked opponent. BYU is ranked 82nd against an average 59th ranked defense.

Utah State was able to hang with Oklahoma and they did their best through the first half vs. Fresno that had them in a position to win, but everything changed after that. This game is huge for both teams as a loss likely means no playoffs with a tough road ahead. Right now BYU can't do anything and that includes getting a pass rush which has been the main issue that has held back Borel and the Utah State offense. I expect them to be able to move the ball on BYU as the Cougars suffered two devastating injuries making this defense that ranks 102nd in the land that much worse. linebacker Jameson Frazier has a broken thumb and their top nose tackle Romney Fuga tore up his knee. This should give Utah State some room to be more balanced.

BYU Offense has struggled and Utah State's D has gotten better and has not played to it's potential. At home on national TV on ESPN look for first year starter Jake Heaps and the young offense to have plenty of problems.

TX A&M +3 -110 betonline (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like the Aggies in this spot. Not only has the line gone from +3.5 to +3 with just 23% of the public backing them, but they are facing a highly over rated Oklahoma St squad that not many know about.

Many are raving about Kendal Hunter and his 157.7 yards per game average and that is all justified he is one of the returners from last years team that was solid, but a new QB 26 year old Brandon Weeden who is lighting up the scoreboard is up for a rude awakening. This is a team that lost 4 starters on the offensive line and their #1 ranked offense is partially due to the the three teams they have faced having total defense ranks of 117, 109 and 113. They are getting way too much hype in my opinion and the Aggies are on revenge in this spot too. That's not all.. and they are about to see an actual pass rush featuring last years leader in sacks Von Miller.. and he's backed by a rookie you will all be hearing about soon in Damone Moore. Cowboys struggled in a couple of goal line situations vs. Tulsa and Troy and that is an indication that this team is not all mighty.

The Cowboy defense will have 9 new starters on defense it's the reason they are #78 in the nation in total defense to start the year. Jerrod Johnson should have a bounce back game after the bye week and I trust he will have a big game. He's got a balanced attack with Christine Michael who has three straight games of rushing for 100+ yards. But the new thing with the Aggies is the defense. Tim DeRuyter takes over the defense with a very aggresive style that is going to give first year QB Brandon Weeden some issues especially with 4 new starters up front. A&M I believe will be able to shut down Kendall Hunter and that should = a win for them. They are allowing just 2.2 yards per carry and are #10 in total defense. Despite playing non-quality opponents I am still impressed with an improved defense that should have the Aggies in talks of winning the Big 12 South.

Bears +3 @+100 BODOG (4-Dime POD)
Another home dog on Monday night and the public is loving the early hype that surrounds the Packers, but the Bears might have something to say about it. The line opened at +3.5 for the Bears and with just 25% of the public on them the line has moved to +3. Bodog and a couple other books has this at +100. I think the Bears defense is legit. They have an iffy secondary, but make up for it against a west coast offense like the Packers with arguably the three best linebackers a team has with Urlacher/Briggs, and Tinoisamoa. The addition of Julius Peppers shows here tonight.

Offensively I think Cutler and the Bears can take advantage of the Packers secondary like the Eagles started to late in that game. While the OL needs a little work they played better in that second half vs. Dallas and they face anotehr 3-4 defense something they are used to through the first two weeks of facing the Cowboys who play the 3-4. I like what Martz has done for Cutler early this season and the win at Dallas looks real considering the Cowboys went down to Houston and held the hot Texans to 13 points. Chicago only lost by 6 and 7 points last year, but this is an improved offense and defense. The defense last year held Rodgers under 200 yards passing in both games. I'm not sure that happens here tonight, but I still think the Bears win by a field goal at Soldier Field.

Titans +3 -110 (5.5 Dime POD) BETONLINE
I love the Titans to win out right here. The Giants are having locker room isuses with Jacobs and Rolle opening their mouth. They are also banged up and I expect Vince Young to have a huge bounce back type game. I thought last week was good for Vince Young and now he's poised to take over and lead his team. Young as a rookie threw for 249 yards and rushed for 69 yards vs. the Giants.. That was a better Giants defense and he didn't have the best running back in the game by his side in Chris Johnson. The Steelers contained Johnson last week but I expect a huge game from CJ here today and the Giants will have their own issue moving the ball as Ten is allowing just 85 passing yards per game. Ya that was against Pit/Oak, but still NFL offenses and I'm impressed. Giants Ahmad Bradshaw has talent, but is more of a screen/third down back in my opinion. TN is solid against the run too and they finished 09 winning 3 of their final 4 road games. They are 4-0 straight up and ATS in their last 4 vs. the Giants and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 as a dog

Northwestern -6.5 -110 5 Dimes (4.4 Dime POD)
I believe the rebuilding of the Chipewas is not this close under their new coach as they have looked good early, but to be honest they haven't even faced a QB yet playing against Hampton, Eastern Michigan and Temple who basically abandons the pass. Persa the red shirt junior has looked as good as any QB in the nation this year with 6 TD 0 INT's and 81.6% passing efficiency.

Northwestern's close call @ Vanderbilt looks better now that Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Mississippi last week. This is not why I like Northwestern at home as much it's more to do with their defense that has 9 takeaways and can really dominate an opponent as it has shown so far this season giving up just 37 points in three games. That's the play of Quentin Davie who had 90 tackles last year with 5 sacks he's already got 20 tackles and 3 interceptions to go along with a sack this year. It'll go along way as this is a veteran D line in front of him that should give Central Mich problems. I don't trust Radcliff at all as the QB for Central Mich though he has thrown for 795 yards and 3 TD he also has 2 interceptions.

Northwestern has won it's last 8 against MAC teams and this reminds me an awful lot like Central Mich's trip to Boston College where they were just killed in a 31-10 game. Northwestern should take advantage of the opportunity to start their season 4-0.

SMU +17.5 (4.4 Dime POD) -110 Sportsbook
All the talk is on TCU and the public is hammering them, but I'm looking at June Jones team a bit differently here. The traditional air it out team is harder to prepare for now as they have a 235 running back named Zach Line who can carry the load and is averaging 8ypc. TCU will most likely shut him down, but that will open it up for Kyle Padron and his athletic receivers. Darius Johnson has 15 catches, and Aldrick Robinson is a deep threat and one of the fastest players in college football. TCU DB's is the weakness of this team if you can even call it one. SMU receivers are a bit more talented than the secondary for TCU as they have given up some long TD's and they are young.

On the other side of the ball Dalton is a similar QB to Padron one that can run and throw with accuracy. SMU's defense is really under rated and will give Dalton a new look. Dalton will try to find weapons, but this running game is going to be stuffed in my opinion looking at all the pressure on Dalton on the road in a "red out" environment. That's right SMU should be sold out as they are hosting the highest ranked team since 1989 when they had #1 Notre Dame. This is a huge inter state rivalry and SMU's defense is good enough to hold this close and their run and shoot offense is good enough to hold it's own and put up some points to cover 17 points. Overall I give SMU a shot to win this game which is why I love this play on Friday night.

Special teams edge to SMU and this will be a big part of this game. Matt Szymanski is one of the top kickers/punters in the country. He's already perfect on every attempt including a 61 yarder and he averages 42 yp punt with accuracy he'll likely keep it away from Kerley here and field position will be very important. Along with that Darryl Fields for SMU is averaging 34.3 yards per kickoff. Finally I'm not going to bust you with trends like I have before I think is the most important quote of the day, "SMU is probably the best defense we've played to this point of the season," Patterson said. "Their passing game will be the best true passing team we'll see to this point and their offensive line...will be a challenge." Coming straight from TCU's head coach. Now I realize he's probably not under estimating a much improved SMU team from years past, but this will be a battle and a close battle. IN 2005 a similar situation TCU came in #5 in the country and lost 21-10. I expect the crowd to really get to DAlton here.

49ers +6 -120 buy 1/2 point (4.4 Dime POD); Under 44 (1.1 Bonus) lines@ BODOG
The public continues to pour in on the Saints. Is betting on Monday night chasing after Sunday

Redskins +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like this game as the REdskins continue to fly under the radar. This is a tough hard nosed team that has gotten better on offense and will show it this week. Houston opened up some holes in their secondary last week and Donovan will look 10 x better in his second game. Bottom line Foster won't run for 200+ yards against a 3-4 defense like WAshington with or without Haynesworth although he is probable. Houston just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a winning team. Big let down here after they had a huge win at home against the Colts. I don't see them being able to beat the Redskins on the road.

Utah State +4 (4.5 Dime POD)
This line has really come down and I'm buying into what Utah State did against Oklahoma in week 1. Bottom line here Fresno is coming off the bye and does that help them prepare for Utah State? When you hit the injury bug it doesn't really as Robbie Rouse their best RB is out as well as SR WR Devon Wylie. So this team is a bit banged up and although their QB looked good against Cinci in their opener with 4TD he'll have more trouble against a Utah STate defense that is no longer a push over.

Utah State has a dangerous passing offense with Borel who can scramble and had 331 passing yards against Oklahoma. If they clean up the turnovers they should win this game. This is probably the biggest game for Utah State at home in quite some time and I think they will continue their success of 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home. The last 3 meetings in Utah between these two have been decided by a total of 4 points and it seems as though Utah State is the team that has improved the most since last year's game where Fresno won 31-27 at home which is a different animal in terms of a major advantage for Utah State which is expecting a sold out crowd.

Fresno's win over Cinci has really died out afte rCinci's latest performance and I really think the wrong team is favored here. Cincinnati gave up a bunch of sacks but they looked awful again last night against NC State. Fresno is still the team to me that forced just 15 turnovers in 13 games and only 11 sacks. They've always had an emphasis on running the game and now they need to find a runner. That'll be their main mission which will result in a close battle between these two.

Arizona State +11.5 (3.5 Dime Early Bird)
Wisconsin a #11 ranked team has not looked sharp early particularly against San Jose State only out gaining them by +96 yards and winning 27-14 at home. That's because this is a run first team and even though they return 10 starters including bruising back John Clay and their offensive line is big I think that the Sun Devils match up will for this type offense. Arizona State is very Big10 defensive type and they have enough size and strength to keep Clay from going wild with Tackles Lawrence Guy, Falahula and quality athletic linebackers. Arizona State probably won't be able to run the ball, but their spread offense agaisnt the Wisconsin defensive line that has just 4 sacks against subpar opponents will surely allow Arizona State to score some points with QB Steven Threet who has 630 yards and 5 TD's through the firs ttwo weeks. Again this is an Arizona State defense that led the Pac 10 in total defense and only lost at Georgia early last year by 3. They have more offense this year and in a "running type game" this is destined to be close. While I see Wisconsin winning it will be much closer than the line indicates and Vegas seems to agree as the line opened up at +15 or more and only 34% of the public is on Arizona State yet the line has dipped to +11 in some places.

Nevada +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like Nevada here at home under the bright lights. Cal has looked great the first two weeks, but let

Cincinnati +2 (4.4 Dime POD)
Wrong team is favored here in my opinion. I think NC State is getting too much credit for what they did at UCF which was not impressive to me at all. Russel Wilson their star just 10/30 for 105 yards. That's supposed to be the strength of the team and it was not the reason they won as they only snuck by 28-21 even though they forced 5 turnovers and had a block punt. I'm concerned about NC State in this spot against a Cinci front 7 that absolutely will make you pass. They have shut down the running games of Fresno State just 1.6 ypc and Fresno is one of the better running teams in recent years. Cinci will get a much needed win here tonight as NC State's experience on the offensive line as they had five offensive linemen that had never started a game and two running backs that never been in a college football game. You have to have a balance to beat a good team and they can't have a balance and I wouldn't be surprised if Cinci with their new 4-3 defense gets at Wilson. This alignment has produced 12 sacks.

NC State's defense was great a week ago shutting down UCF and forcing turnovers. With that said Zach Collaros does not turn the ball over and NC State will have a tough time preparing for this team. First week they threw it 41 times and although not that successful Collaros did not throw an interception. Last week against Indiana State, yes Indiana State they got the running game going for more than 260 yards without their feature back. Isaiah Pead is expected to return giving NC State a fuzzy idea on how to defend the Bearcats. Bottom line I think Collaros can be great in this offense and they have the weaopons in Armon Binns and DJ Woods. This is an easier game than visiting Fresno State in my opinion as they had to go out west to play a good team. NC State off to a good start and the public and the lines have proven that, but I still think they are going to struggle in this spot.

Chiefs +4.5 (4.4 Dime NFL POD)
Really like the Chiefs to surprise some people and it starts Monday night with a new stadium and the 2nd year for Matt Cassel which should be better than most expect. I really expect him to get it out to his play makers and expect him to get better with Weis back as his offensive coordinator as the Chiefs have the old duo from the Patriots days with Crennel at defense and Weis on the offensive end.

Chargers have several issues going into this game. One being that their strength of passing the ball will not be as good against the Chiefs for 4 different reasons. They will be without their best WR and starting LT for contract reasons as Marcus mcNeill and Vincent Jackson won

Bucs -2.5 @ 5DIMES (4.4 Dime POD)
The Browns can play defense that's for sure, but without a 100% Shaun Rogers they are a different team and I think the Bucs will be able to run the ball a bit. The Bucs had an improving defense down the stretch and with the addition of third overall pick Gerald McCoy they instantly got better and formed a unit that can now stop the run which is important against Cleveland. The Browns start Jake Delhomme who threw 13 interceptions in his first 6 games last year and had 2 against the Bucs where he was 9-17 for 65 yards. Luckily the running game got the Panthers a win that day, but as I said I think the Bucs are getting better by the day particularly against hte run.

On offense Cadillac Williams may finally be living up to his potential without injuries and Josh Freeman started to play well down the stretch a year ago. The public is on the Browns at 66% the line has moved from TB -1.5 to -3 at most books.

Texans +2 (2.2 Dime Oddsline Error)
The Colts have traditionally gotten off to a slow start. Just 14-12 over the Jaguars a year ago and 27-23 over the Dolphins in a game they should have lost. The Texans finally get the Colts early in the season and at home. The last 4 games in this series the Colts have won by just 21 points total. This is the lowest the spread has been and this is a talented Houston team that desperately wants to get started off at 1-0. I expect Schaub to have a dynamic game today and Arian Foster to be able to run a bit despite Bob Sanders being healthy.

NC State +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like this game as the best on the day as the best player in the building will be the Wolfpack's returning QB Russel Wilson 31 TD 11 INT and over 3,000 passing yards a year ago. Wilson has composure and good presence in the pocket. I don't think he'll be afraid of star end Bruce Miller coming off the edge as he's very capable scrambling and he's got the receiving corp to have a great day against an inconsistent secondary from UCF that returns 3 starters, but is the same team that gave up 297 yards in their bowl game to freshmen QB of Rutgers Tom Savage. Wilson is better than Savage and I expect a big game for him as he seems more focused than in years past.

The big news here is Nate Irving at LB returning for the Wolfpack. He is a big boost to this defense which will face a 2 QB system. I'm not confident in Calabrese although he can run and pass he is very raw in his Junior year and the freshmen Godfrey is just 5-11 and 176 pounds He might have trouble passing in the pocket over these two lines. UCF will run the ball a lot with Jon Davis 1109 yds 14TD last year. UCF has strength at WR, but again can these QB's get it to them? NC State can have the advantage in special teams with TJ Graham a special athlete that can take it back at any time.

This is the 4th year in a row that UCF is facing an ACC opponent. They beat NC state two years ago but that was by 2 points and NC state gave up a 92 yard TD or close to open the game. NC State will be able to stop that kind of big play with the return of IRving playing in his home state. UCF could not play with Boston College or Miami in their other ACC match ups. I just think that UCF will struggle here and NC State needs a win here to be considered in the ACC. UCF just 13-28 in their last 41 non conference games.

Vikings +6 @ BODOG (3.3 Dime Play)
I really like the Vikings to pay their revenge here tonight. They did a good job against the Vikings and should be the team with the Super Bowl ring. They basically out gained the Vikings 2 to 1 and I think they will be able to move the ball effectively here tonight. Saints will have a lot on offense as they are tough to beat in their dome and you got the factor of home teams are 10-0 in their first game coming off a super bowl victory in the last ten years. However, I see this game living up to the hype and being a quality game and close. Vikings are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and had the 160 yards rushing in last years NFC Championship game.

Miss State +2 (4.4 Dime POD)Mullen's offense is now fully installed and we already saw the benefits against Marshall where they won 49-7 in week 1. They split two QB's with different talents and have an above average receiving corp that will give Auburn lots of troubles. Don't get me wrong Cameron Newton appears to be the real deal, but if you remember Mullen recruited him when he was at Florida and knows a lot about the dual threat QB that broke the rushing record for a single game by a QB for Auburn last week. That's not why Auburn doesn't cover it will be their inability to play defense. Add in the significant improvement from Miss State's offense with Chad Bumphis, Brandon HEavens and Leon Berry catchign passes and I'm confident this team is going to shock some viewers. I think Miss State is strong up front and they have some leaders in the linebacking corps that could stop the run of Newton.

Auburn gave up 26 points to Arkansas State. Arkansas State one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt last year only scored more than 26 points three times all of last year against three SUn Belt opponents in Troy Flint, and North Texas. The big problem is in the passing game which is now the Miss State's strength of the passing game. The combo of Tyler Russell and Chris Relf threw for 372 yards against Marshall and completed 20-25 passes. Expect much of the same at home and I expect Cameron Newton to get rattled early in the largest home crowd the Bulldogs will ever have. YOu'll hear plenty of cowbells.

Virginia Tech +105 (4.5 Dimes)
I like the Hokies to really start their run to be in the running for the ACC Championship as well as the National Championship. Beamer has a solid group of guys returning on the offensive side of the ball and the best running back duo in the country arguably in Evans and Williams. Tyrod Taylor is the MVP in this game. He may trail Kellen Moore on the active QB win list in college football 23-26, but he's been in big games like this before and he really grew up a year ago with a trio of receivers in Boykin, Coale Kberls that are under rated. The defense for the Hokies is young but high on talent.. I think there will be points given up no question, but Virginia Tech just has too much on the offense side of the ball and though the Broncos return just about everyone they are going to miss their star CB Kyle Wilson in this game.

ECU +7.5 @ 5dimes (3.5 Dime EB play)
I like this match up for EAst Carolina at home as under dogs despite having just 2 returners to their defense that led the the conference a year ago. The returners are int he secondary including Emanuel Davis an All C-USA performer. This will allow ECU to blitz and play man coverage which will fall into the weakness of Tulsa as Kinne was sacked far too often a year ago. Kinne threw 2 interceptiosn and had a fumble against EAst Carolina a year ago. He has weapons to put up points, but East Carolina is still a defensive minded team with Ruffin McNeill taking over.

The difference....East Carolina starts the Boston College transfer Dominique Davis who is hungry. He's grown up since he last started a game for BC playing in juco. Look for him to have a great day on this suspect Tulsa defense. He's got plenty of options in the spread including the all time Pirate receiver Dominique Davis who caught 83 balls a year ago. This is a new system, but I think Tulsa is the perfect opponent to gain confidence on. East Carolina returns 3 offensive linemen who were starters and are now seniors. I think they have a major advantage up front which is where the games are won. I look for this to be a bit of a shoot out with the Pirates having a chance at home to win the game out right.

Oregon State +13 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
Really like this play. I think the Rodgers brothers are explosive enough to give TCU some serious problems especially on a fast track like Cowboy Stadium.. If you don't know the Rodgers brothers and you should by now watch tonight's game. ORegon State also has a physical line led by Phillip and Linnenkohl. On defense they have a strong unit up front that should stop the running game of TCU in my opinion. DT Stephen Paea is a force and has the speed to disrupt many plays. Oregon State allowed just 114.4 yards per carry and the strength of schedule was a bit higher than TCU. Offensively it'll be the Rodgers brothers against a tough tCU defense but one that does have some question marks which is why I like Oregon State. TCU lost it's leading tackler, two 4 year corner backs, and Jerry Hughes their leading sacker.

Ryan Katz the sophmore QB will be the question mark for Oregon STate, but with weapons like the Rodgers brothers and a solid TE in Joe Halanhuni 35 receptions a year ago 486 yards I think they'll be able to get some points on the board in what will be a relatively low close scoring game. Dalton returns but his confidence may be hurt a bit after an awful showing in the bowl game against Boise State. He faces another tough defense and I think he may throw a pick or two here.

MTENN +2.5 (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like the chances for MTSU despite not having their best player in their QB in Dasher. It looks like Kilgore will get the start and I believe he has a strong arm well capable of making the short throws to the WR which will give Minnesota a team that returns just 2 starters from last years team with 1 safety Kim Royston being out for this contest. That means brand new Linebackers and I believe they'll have some trouble stopping MTSU which had one of the better offenses a year ago.

The Gophers offense will struggle enough for MTSU to have this game in hand at home in my opinion. Minnesota only scored 20 ppg and have a new offensive coordinator for the third year in a row. They are missing a lot of offensive talent and the struggles will continue as they were 113th in sacks allowed. They face a MTSU team that is strong up front with a strong pass rush ranked 6th in the nation a year ago and 2nd in tackles for a loss. Bottom line their defensive coordinator Randall Mccray knows this Gophers team as he spent 4 years at Wisconsin. Look for Weber to be under pressure for a good portion of the game. MTSU is a team that has played talented teams a year ago as they beat Maryland and played MIss STate and Clemson. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non conference games while Minnesota is 1-4.

Colts -5.5 (5.5 Dime Play)
Really I saw all I needed to this past weekend with the Colts and the Jets and the Vikings and the Saints. The Saints offense has continued to digress while Peyton and co just continue to become more and more dangerous with weapons all over the field named Garcon, Collie, Clark, and oh yeah Wayne. Don't forget to the dual half backs he's got in Addai and Brown.

I just think this is all Colts all the time as the NFC is just a year or two away from catching up with the overall talent of the AFC. Let's be honest Peyton dominated the #1 coverage unit in the Jets. Sure Darelle Revis locked down Reggie Wayne but it was Peyton Manning who was able to go all over the field to his other weapons to seal this game in the 2nd half. They even had the running game off the draw and stretch play working to perfection. I watched every single Jets game and I knew they had holes in their defense that did not show up on the stat sheet, but never did I think they would be threaded like a needle even by the best QB I have ever see play this game. Manning will make his legend a permanent one in Super Bowl 43!

Drew Brees and the Saints got extremely lucky and they should send my favorite QB, Brett Favre commission if they win. The Vikings dominated the Saints on both sides of the ball and Favre was great til late. The Saints however did one thing great they got pressure on Favre and hit him more then 15 times. However, you simply won't get to Peyton Manning. Maybe early like the Jets did but he figures it out and torches you after that when he spreads things out. The Saints defense is not near what the Jets are and Peyton is the best at preparing for defenses and I expect him to score more than 30 points here. On the other side I can't see Drew Brees and company score into the 30's because of the pressure he's going to get from the outside pass rushers in Mathis and Freeney. There is not a better tandom in the NFL and Ray Edwards and Jarred Allen just did an excellent job in the last game to get to Brees. In the end it was not enough and the Vikings can thank their three best players on offense for that in Favre, Harvin and Peterson. Turnovers via fumble and interception cost that team a trip to the Super Bowl. If you watched the game you know the Saints got lucky and do not belong here and Peyton will prove it to everyone.

Cardinals +7 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
The Cardinals simply play inspirational football when they are under dogs. Now 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an under dog. The Saints struggled the last quarter of the season and lost their last two games in the dome making them "beatable" The Cardinals have the ingredients to pull the upset. They have the excellent passing game that can keep pace with the Saints, and they have a pass rush with Docket as we saw last year in the playoffs that can get to Brees and really mess up what they will try to do.

Bottom line the best player in the game, the player that can take the game over is on the Cardinals. Larry Fitzgerald is a beast we saw it in the playoffs last year. The Saints do not have a guy that can cover this guy. The Saints are a beat up team in the secondary and pulling in journey men Mike McKenzie and Chris McCalister is not going to help. There is a reason this team was 24th in the league in pass defense. Kurt Warner will eat up this secondary in a very high scoring close game.

Packers -1.5 4.4 Dime NFL POD
I'm going with the Packers here. Aaron Rodgers is just too good and posses too many match up problems for the Cardinals with three excellent WR targets in Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, Gregg Jennings and then add in Jermichael Finley and Rodgers should have no problem throwing the ball. Well this pass rush of the Cardinals is excellent and as we know the Packers offensive line has been suspect. That is not entirely true. The Packers have given up 7 sacks in their last 6 games and most of that success has been due to the fact that T Chad Clifton has been healthy. He's healthy today and will play so I love the protection for Aaron Rodgers. The Cardinals are dangerous and this is no question going to be an entertaining game, but even if we use the trend from last week with the two teams that played yesterday won in week 17 and in the playoffs. If that means anything the Packers should have all the confidence in the world here on Sunday.

Eagles +4 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
You know what many are reading into last weeks game so much because the Eagles have everything to play for. However, remember last year when the Cowboys had everything to play for at home against these Eagles and got embarassed 44-6. That was not so long ago was it. They had a major motivational advantage in that game after getting just shreaded 44-6 in a game they needed to go to the playoffs. I expect the tables to turn on them Saturday in a game they need to prove that last week meant something. The Eagles will come out and score early and steal all the momentum. Just a week or so ago the Eagles were hottest team going into the playoffs. That loss hurt a lot but Andy Reid knows how to come back from this he has done it before. It's almost as if he wanted this to happen. Each year the Eagles go into the playoffs as under dogs and each year they win some games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. In fact they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games too. It's almost as if they are where they want to be here and I don't think it's a bad place to be.

The Dog in this match up is 8-3 ATS in the last 11, and the Eagles are 7-0 in their last 7 as an underdog 3.5-10 points. Eagles often play better as a dog and even more so on the road as they are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 as a road dog. Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 in Dallas despite their loss of the last week of the season, but believe me Dallas had all the momentum. Bottom line this will be a tight game that will come down to a field goal either way.

Alabama -4 (4.5 Dime POD) Under 46 (2-Dime Bonus)
Well these two teams are as even as you get on paper. Both solid offense, solid defenses, solid special teams and solid coaching. Normally in a situation like this you go with the under dog, but I just can't buy into a Texas team that has shown far more problems this year than the Tide. It just seems like that special year for Alabama and I'm a believer in that.

Alabama first off has faced a stronger schedule don't let anyone kid you on that. Particularly their defense has faced a 45th ranked rushing offense while Texas #1 run defense has faced the #74 attack. It's a mirage on the surface because Alabama who is going to run the ball goes up against a very talented front, but just how talented? Texas has been tested by just three decent running teams and those three were not close to what Alabama can do with their strength.

Alabama offense ranked slightly lower than Texas has faced a much much more challenging defense out of the SEC ranked #48 int he nation compared to Texas who has faced #76. And again it's the strength of the Texas offense that I can not take seriously here as they have faced an opponent with a average 76th pass defense. Maybe it is because so many Big 12 teams love to pass that the defense are under rated, but even so Texas has played only two defenses this year that are the caliber of an Alabama. Those two are Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those two games Texas I believe should have and could have easily won the game. I believe Alabama's defense is better than both of those teams and the offense may just be too. Nebraska held Texas to 13 points and sacked McCoy 9 times while Oklahoma held them to 16 points.

Alabama has been tested all season by top defense and this won't be anything new to McElroy and the crew. McElroy is under rated the guy has faced six top 20 pass defenses. I think he can beat Texas under neath throwing to Marquis Maze as the Longhorn secondary full of sophomores will have their eyes on the all world talent in Julio Jones. Alabama has faced six top 27 defenses many in the area that Texas is in. They averaged 24 ppg in all six and when they faced a Kentucky team that was 18th in pass defense they put up 38 points. I can see Alabama scoring around 24 points which should be plenty to win this game.

Alabama has been tested offensively too facing three opponents in the top 22 in offense and a three more in the top 50. Against the three top 22 offenses they held them to 13.67 ppg proving they can play in the big game that includes holding the Gators to 13 points in the SEC title game.

Texas on the other hand has not fared well against good offenses. They faced four top 26 offenses and gave up 24 points on average including 39 to Texas A&M team. There were many QB's that beat Texas all year long making them suspect against the pass. The fear you should have if you are going to back the Longhorns is they have not faced a rushing team as good as Alabama all year long. They have not faced an offensive line as talented as Alabama that is where the difference will be.

As I mentioned above against top offenses and top defenses Alabama seemed to play their best with a +10.33ppg advantage while Texas seemed to play worst scoring 14.9 and giving up 24. Bottom line is Texas won those games, but they have yet to play a team that can play offense and defense well outside Oklahoma but Oklahoma didn't have their best player on the field as he got injured in the first 5 minutes of the game.

What Texas does well is throw those short range passes and I look for McCoy to get picked off a couple times once maybe by the best linebacker in college football in Rolando McClain. He's best at dropping in coverage and should have an opportunity to make big plays here. With Cody at 6'5 and 354 int he middle making Texas unable to run the ball a one dimensional team.

Troy +3 4-Dime NCAAF POD
The perception out there is that Central Michigan is better because of the best QB to ever play in the MAC will be wrapping up his career in Dan Lefevour. However, hold up just one minute. The MAC has not fared well in this game Ball State got blasted 45-13 last year and Bowling Green 63-7 the year before. Troy is another conference winner coming out of the Sun Belt so this game should be much closer and in the end I think Troy wins with their offense.

The perception is that this Central MIchigan team has a good defense unlike years past, well that may be true statistically, but are they really better than Troy? A team that played two of the top scoring offenses in the country in Arkansas and Florida. Overall central Michigan faced an average offens ranked 73 while Troy took on an opponent ranked #50. Troy's secondary is terrible don't get me wrong, but they have been tested, and they are significantly under rated in their front 7. That is where you need to be good to contain Mr. Lefevour and I think Boris Lee one of the best linebackers ever to play in the Sun Belt will have a lot to say about how this defense plays. He's joined by outstanding ends in Cameron Sheffield and Brandon Lang and don't forget Bear Woods another linebacker who will be looking to keep LeFevour in check.

Both teams strong special teams and talent that can take it back at any time. The other perception is Troy lost to Bowling Green and Central Mich beat them 24-10. Well that game was tied at 14 going into the 4th before Troy fell 31-17. That was the first game of the year and since then Troy has gone 9-2. That one less game may just serve them well. If you want to get technical in terms of the Sun Belt vs. the MAC we can look at the bowl games this year Middle Tenn beat C-USA Southern Miss 42-32. MAC has been known to get blown out by C-USA and MTSU took care of them as 3.5 point dogs. Troy destroyed MTSU 31-7. Ohio and Bowling Green both out of the MAC lost their bowl games as favorites. If you want to go deeper you can take North Texas a team that Troy beat 50-26 that played right with MAC Ohio in a loss 30-31, and beat MAC Ball State. From those points it appears the Sun Belt is stronger. Add in the fact that Central Michigan will have an interim coach and I think we have a solid play here with Troy. Don't think the coaching situation is that big of a deal? Just go ask Cincinnati if it played a part.

Don't forget just how good this Troy offense is. Theyare ranked #3 overall and although they faced an average 78 total defense they beat them up. Central Michigan's offense is behind Troy, and the talent that they have faced defensively is not much better ranked #64. Overall Troy comes in with the stronger strength of schedule playing opponents with a win % of .480 and an opp-opp win% at .488 while Central Michigan comes in at .442 and .474 respectfully. Look for the passing attack from Levi Brown to be spectacular and for the front 7 of Troy to give LeFevour enough problems up front.

Take Iowa +5.5 (4.4 Dime Play) Take Under 51 (1.5 Dime Play)
Clash number two of the Big 10 vs. the ACC in this years bowl games. The first time it was Wisconsin beating Miami as underdogs. Iowa who is 10-3 vs. teams with a winning record and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and non-conference games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as underdogs.

While these two have not played a common opponent this year I have found a couple of connections that should make you feel good about playing the under dog. Iowa beat Wisconsin 20-10 who I mentioned took care of Miami and Miami beat Georgia Tech. Also Iowa beat Penn State who beat LSU who destroyed Georgia Tech in their bowl game last year 38-3. Georgia Tech is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite.

To beat Georgia Tech you need good linebackers, lots of discipline and time to prepare. That's exactly what Iowa possesses in this spot here. The only team that had more than a week to get ready for Georgia Tech was Miami and Miami was able to limit the Yellow Jackets to a season low 95 yards. Iowa certainly has a group of linebackers including possibly the best LB in college football in Pat Angerer. Angerer has come up with big games in big moments and was 5th in the nation in tackles. He had 14 against Penn State, 13 against Ohio State, and 16 against Minnesota. I would not be surprised if we see 20 from him tonight.

Now many are saying and feeling that Iowa can not keep up with Georgia Tech, and that's why they lose, well I'm here to tell you Georgia Tech's defense is not as good as it appears. It has benefited from being on the field for long periods of times and weak competition. They have faced three out of conference teams with terrible offensive rankings in Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Miss State. All three games they gave up 30 or more points proving that Iowa's offense should be able to move the chains more than you think especially with their QB Ricky Stanzi who was 9-0 as a starter this year returning from his ankle injury.

Iowa's defense has been the staple of this teams success and this will be the best defense Georgia Tech faces all year. Ranked #10 in total defense and #9 in points allowed Iowa has faced a challenging schedule that has Ohio State and Penn State. Regardless look for a low scoring game.

TCU -7 (4.5 DIME NCAAF POD)
Ok there is no doubt in my mind that TCU plays in a far superior conference. Let's just look at the bowl games for instance. BYU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming all under dogs in their bowl games and won out right making the Mountain West Conference a solid conference. If TCU can close it out and win here tonight that would make them 5-0 in bowl games. Wyoming an 11 point under dog against a WAC Fresno State team won by a TD to open the bowl season. Utah and BYU took care of two Pac-10 teams and Air Force beat and flat out dominated the best offensive team in the country statistically. TCU really wants to join that club here tonight. Add in the fact that the other WAC team playing in a bowl game lost to SMU by 35 points as 11 point favorites. That's right Nevada the team that challenged Boise a little lost by 35 points and they were big favorites.

Of course we can't base our opinion solely on that information, but Boise who is known for their offense this year with Kellen Moore throwing for the highest passing efficiency in the nation and 39 TD and 3 INT has faced nobody defensively. They faced three teams with a total defense inside the top 70 and that was teams ranked 65th, 70, and 37. Oregon in game 1 held them to 19 points and lost, but TCU is much better than Oregon and from what we already saw from the PAC-10 we can say the MW Conference may just be better. Add in the fact that Moore's best option Austin Pettis was questionable for the game because of an ankle injury. He'll give it a go, but clearly won't be 100% which is a big deal against a solid defense. Pettis caught 14TD's this year.

These two teams met last year and while TCU only won by 1 point the story here is that they out gained Boise 472 to 250 yards. Andy Dalton threw an interception for TCU something I do not think will happen this year and his overall play is much more threatening than it was a year ago. Dalton has double the number of TD passes than a year ago with 22 and has thrown just 5 interceptions. He is completing 8.9 yards per pass and that's nearly 2 yards more than a year ago while he's rushing +0.7 ypc more than a year ago. Boise State has a solid defense, but they are vulnerable to the running game something TCU ranked #5 in the nation thrives on. Fresno State's Ryan Mathews gashed the Broncos front seven and the only other strong running game was Nevada a team that ran for 242 yards and Vai Taua having 160 with 6.7 yards per carry. TCU has faced defenses close to what Boise does and they have come out successful. They have faced 5 strong defenses ranked 19,29,11,20, and 54 respectfully. In those games they averaged 31.4 ppg and gave up 15.2ppg. TCU carries the #1 total defense and is stout on both sides passing and rushing. They held Boise to 1.6 yard per carry a year ago and should be able to do that again making Moore have to beat them. TCU shut down some good passing attacks this year including BYU 38-7 and Utah 55-28 both those teams beat up on Pac-10 teams in their bowl games.

Bottom line TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowls and although a TD seems like a lot it really isn't when you have a defense as good as this. TCU DE Jerry Hughes will have a huge game and will disrupt Kellen Moore. Moore may have only been sacked 5 times this year, but it was against some terrible pass defenses even Oregon the best total defense that Boise State has played had a #46 pass defense. TCU flies in at #64.

Dolphins +3 +100 (4-Dime NFL POD)
The Steelers are not 3 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field not this year not without Troy Polamolou. The Dolphins are still alive int he playoff picture believe it or not but many do not realize this and the public is pounding the Steelers because it's a must win for them, but in my opinion teams playing in this situation trying to cover the spread just don't do it. Just because you MUST win does not mean you will. You often see a team that has "nothing to play for," play their best games in these situations. I think you will see the Dolphins play that type of game. Their loss last week hurt to the Texans, but they know they are slightly alive for the playoffs, and that's enough to get a win today at home.

Take Northwestern +8.5 (4.5 Dime NCAAF POD)
Got to go with Northwestern in this situation against Auburn. Auburn has not faced anyone this year with a good passing game except Arkansas ranked #10 and what happened? It was a 23-44 loss and Arkansas does not have the defense that Northwestern has. Kafka was solid down the stretch throwing for over 300 yards against Illinois and Wisconsin. A win over Wisconsin look pretty impressive considering what Wisconsin did to Miami in their bowl game.

Northwestern has the #28 ranked passing game and they have faced a solid defense out of the PAC-10. Auburn does have a #29 pass defense, but note they have faced an average 81st passing offense. The SEC is loaded with run first teams and that is why their run defense at #80 is not impressive either. Auburn is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 as a favorite while Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as under dogs. Auburn will be able to run the ball, but Northwestern is extremely under rated in my opinion in terms of their defense. They have faced two teams that can run the ball in the category of an Auburn and that was against Wisconsin and Illinois in their last two games each featuring solid running games at #15 and #18 while Auburn comes in at #13. Northwestern won both of those games out right, and while Illinois defense is defintely worse than Auburn, Wisconsin's is definitely better than Auburns. I think this will be a very close game than many expect and in the end I think Northwestern will have an opportunity to win the game outright.

Player to watch is Northwestern DE Corey Wooton he's a first round prospect. He had a knee injury but still has a world of talent. Look for him to really disrupt Auburn and what they try to do here on Friday.

Oklahoma -10 (5-Dime NCAAF POD)
Biggest play of this bowl season thus far comes on Oklahoma. I just love this play and Oklahoma is big favorites. I don't often play big favorites, but in this situation I can't help but really like them. I'll tell you why. IF you have been paying attention you have seen me talking trash about the Pac-10! Tonight was just another win fading the PAC-10 when Nebraska destroyed Arizona in an easy 33-0 win. That was Nebraska. Stanford actually lost to Arizona who got beat by Nebraska badly, so who is the better team? I just do not think this is a good match up for Stanford. Against teams with top 27 running defenses they are 1-3 and those are against Pac-10 defenses which up until this point can't really be taken seriously. Even Temple ran through and dominated the UCLA defense. Stanford is going to have his hands filled with Oklahoma and their #8 ranked run defense.

Oklahoma has faced two top 29 running offenses and the result was a 27-0 win over Oklahoma State who carries the #22 running offense. Then against Texas A&M who also carries a good passing game they won 65-10. Yikes! This does not look good for Stanford who is going to rely to much on Toby Gerhart to run the ball especially since their QB Andrew Luck will miss this game. Their back up is more than competent but he'll go up against a tested Oklahoma secondary that rankes #22.

Oklahoma should be feasting on Stanford's defense and I don't think they'll be stopped all day long. Oklahoma has faced 4 pass defenses in the category that Stanford falls into which is BAD. Stanford ranked 105 in the country in pass defense and Oklahoma has faced 4 teams close to that with ranks of 94, 107, 95, and 102. The results were a combined score of 179-40. Neither one of those games was close, and even though Sam Bradford won't play here Landry Jones has enough experience and has proven that when he plays a poor defense he makes the plays to win in blowouts which is exactly what I think this will be. It's really too bad for a Stanford team that looked really good at times this year.

Oklahoma will continue it's dominance against the Pac -10 as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 and they will fix their struggles int he bowl games that have been their last 6 going 1-5 ATS. This is a low key bowl for Oklahoma and the competition is not nearly what it normally is. Stanford is a nice team with some nice coaches, but they are out of the league here and just like every other Pac-10 team they will be embarrassed I think. Stanford 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.

Idaho -1 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
Yes, Idaho's defense on paper looks just awful, but when they played one dimensional teams like Bowling Green they won, including a 34-16 win over San Diego State a team with identical statistical rankings to Bowling Green. They also beat a MAC team in Northern Illinois 34-31 and NILL has one of the best defenses out of the MAC and plays in the better division of the MAC. Bowling Green did not face them this year.

I believe the WAC is slightly stronger than the MAC. You've got Fresno, Nevada, Boise and more. Actually Bowling Green actually faced Boise State and it was at home in a pathetic attempt as they lost 14-49 with -247 yards. Idaho played at Boise two games ago and although they lost 25-63 they out gained Boise by 56 yards. They will have to play on the blue turf again here today. I just trust a team that is used to playing on the blue turf over a team that's not. Although Idaho has such a hate for Boise that they will not occupy the home team locker room.

The best player in this game belongs on the side of Idaho and he may not be your traditional offensive player, but it's Guard Mike Iupati. He's 6-6 and 330 pounds and should go in the first round of the draft. Just watch this guy as Idaho beats up a 103rd ranked rush defense here today. Idaho has the #10 offense and maybe their defense lacks a bit, but Bowling Green can't compete here with a balanced offensive team in Idaho. Bowling Green can pass all they want with Tyler Sheehan and should rack up some good yards throwing to Mr. Barnes, but in the end there is plenty of tape out there on how to stop this passing game and with no thoughts of running the ball they will likely get stopped in the red zone a few times and have to settle for fieldgoals which is what will win this game.

Take Wisconsin +4 (4-Dime POD)
This line will continue to climb today and I'll take it at +4 where it is at many books and will be at the majority of them here tonight. Wisconsin is the exact team that has given Miami troubles all year long. Wisconsin has had more rushing yards with their stand out RB John Clay than every team they have faced this year. Miami also a solid rushing team to go with a solid rushing defense has been out rushed in three games. They just do not play the power game run and stop the run as well as Wisconsin. Both have similar strength of schedules so the stats can be taken seriously. In the three games that Miami was out gained they won two of them, but those two wins were by 1 point each and the loss to Virginia Tech was by 24 points. This Miami teams plays best when the running game is working and they should have a lot of trouble getting it going here today against the #8 ranked team against the run.

Although Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and Wisconsin got torched a year ago in this Champs Sports Bowl by another Florida ACC team in Florida State I believe they will be ready this time around. This is a Wisconsin team that was a couple of plays or games away from playing on New Years. In their games against top flight passing teams they played extremely well going 3-1 and the loss came by just 2 points to Northwestern a solid team that knocked off Iowa. Even though they lost it was still not by what they are given here today which is 4 points. Wisconsin is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an under dog while Miami is 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite including 2-11 ATS as a favorite between 3.5-10 points.

In Miami's three losses QB Jacoby Harris struggled big time often forcing too many passes. Harris is a pocket passer despite having the speed to move around. Teams that can get to him have forced him to make mistakes and that included 4 against UNC, 3 against Clemson, and 1 against Virginia Tech. Wisconsin has that type of defense and has been tested by some solid passing games out of the Big Ten. They have a very solid pass rush with O'Brien Schofield and the fact that Miami will be with out their 6-7 tackle Jason Fox will make this a huge advantage for Wisconsin and probably the biggest reason why I'm not backing Miami here at all. Look for Wisconsin to put Schofield in position all day to make plays for the Badgers. I believe Wisconsin plays with the lead for most of the night in what will be a close game, but Miami should have an opportunity to win the game in the 4th, but if they do it will only be by a FG.

Georgia -6.5 4-Dime NCAAF POD
I looked for reasons to take Texas A&M I really did, but I could not really find any. Sure Jerrod Johnson is an incredible athlete and has been nasty all year long, but I think Georgia has the balanced defense to stop the running game and force Johnson to become a pocket passer. That is something both Kansas State and Oklahoma were able to do. In my opinion this will be the 3rd best defense Texas A&M will see all year long. Georgia ranked #31 overall is very balanced on both sides against the run and pass.

The biggest difference in this game is the misconception that Georgia's offense is average which it is not. They have faced an average defense ranked #38 in total defense and you would have a hard time finding anyone that faced a stronger schedule. This will be the 10th bowl team that Georgia has played this year. Their strength of schedule is miles from what Texas A&M had to face. They faced an opp with a .576 win% while Texas A&M faced .452. The only time Georgia faced a defense that was ranked close to what Texas A&M was @ Arkansas and they put up 52 points. That was the same Arkansas team that held Texas A&m to 19 points on the road in a 47-19 win. There it is Georgia went on the road and beat up on Arkansas and A&M at home lost to Arkansas 19-47. Georgia has a much better defense and you could even say they have a more balanced offense than what Arkansas had.

The Key to the game here is protection. Georgia will have their hands full against Von Miller the nations leader in sacks. However, he had 11 of his 17 sacks against awful teams, New Mexico, Utah State, UAB, Colorado, and Iowa State. Georgia led the SEC in sacks allowed so I'm thinking Miller won't be a problem. The other key is turnovers. Georgia does not force them and it's the reason they are 119th in turnover margin. If they protect the ball they should win this game by more than a TD. Luckily Texas A&M is 66th in turnover margin and does not really force takeaways.

Kentucky +7 buy hook -120 4.4 dimes + Kentucky +218 1 dime bonus
I am on Kentucky here and it's not just because I am a big supporter of the SEC, because Clemson definitely has the superior talent here. It's more because Rich Brooks the Kentucky coach. Even at the age of 68 he continues to prove that he's one of the better coaches. Kentucky won their last three bowl games and I think they will win this game as an underdog which is why I give you the money line bonus.

Kentucky is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games proving that the SEC is superior and a team like Kentucky who does not get much love in conference play is one of the better teams in college football. Getting points here I feel confident. Randall Cobb is the best player on the field yes that is a bold statement considering CJ Spiller is on the field, but Cobb is the MVP here and I think he will get it done for Kentucky against a Clemson run defense that has been very suspect all year long ranked #69 in the nation against the run. Kentucky's offensive line is one of the bigger lines Clemson will see all year long as they average more than 300lbs up front. Derrick Locke the HB will also cut through Clemson's defense as well. Kentucky played a poor run defensive Auburn, and that team statistically is very similar to Clemson except Auburn has a better offense and Kentucky marched into Auburn and won 21-14 for the first time since 1966. Brooks also had Kentucky beat Georgia at Georgia for the first time since 1977 so this Kentucky team is one of the better teams they have had in some time.

Clemson on the other hand does not play in bowl games well actually they lost in 2006 as favorites to this Kentucky team by 6 points. Clemson is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. SEC and actually played South Carolina a team Kentucky lost by just 2 points on the road while Clemson got crushed on the road 17-34 and were -128 yards while Kentucky was -1 yard. Clemson is 0-4 in their last 4 bowl games ATS and 0-5 in their last 5 bowl games as a favorite. CJ Spiller will light it up again here, but in the end it won't matter as Kentucky's defense is better than many give credit.

Texans +110 (4-Dime NFL POD)
Can't help but take the Texans in this situation. They are looking to play spoilers down the stretch so they have plenty to play for! The Dolphins have struggled against good passing teams. Actually with the exception of a last minute score against the Patriots they were 0-5 against good passing teams with losses to the Saints, Falcons, Colts and Chargers.

I think the Texans have the passing game to contend here as the Dolphins are #23 in passing defense. Just a little while ago we were talking about the Texans going to the playoffs and they want to prove that they should be the ones going to the playoffs.

Take UNC +3 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I'm going with the Tarheels here as they face a team off a huge emotional loss in the Big East Championship. Pitt just could not hold on to their 3 TD lead over Cinn in that game and I do expect a carry over into this game where they will have to face off against the best defense they have faced all year long. The closest resemblance of a defense as good as UNC that Pitt faced was West Virginia who still is miles away from what this team is and they lost to them 16-19.

I believe Dion Lewis will be bottled up all day as UNC has all stars all over the field and they are ranked #9 nationally against the run. They have NFL type players in DT Marvin Austin, DE Robert Quinn, and linebackers Quan Slurdivant and Bruce Carter who can close on Lewis in a hurry. The 5-8 195lb runner is going to have issues here on Saturday and we will take advantage.

Granted Pitt has a distinct advantage on the other side of the ball, but as we know defense wins championships and with UNC getting points I will take it in that situation especially since Pitt really does not have a distinct advantage here and add in the fact that UNC has faced a stronger schedule by far in my rankings. Besides UNC's offense is not as bad as many are making it out to be they have two talented RB's and in their last three games they averaged 30.3ppg and that was against three solid defense ranked 57, 23 and 25th in total defense so yes I am impressed.

Two common opponents between these two teams as both played UCONN and NC State. While the outcomes were the same we can find something very different. First Uconn both teams won in close games. UNC played Uconn early in the season and won 12-10, but that was a very different offense and defense and they still out gained them by 76 yards. Pitt got a win against UCONN but it was at home while UNC played them on the road. They won 24-21 but out gained them by 186 yards. Now here is where the difference is and why I think the ACC is better than the Big East. @NC State Pitt lost by a TD and were out gained by 230 yards. This to a team that is not going bowling and one of the worst in the ACC. Granted UNC also lost to this team, but in the last game of the season and that is only making this team hungrier. It was on NC State's Sr. day and despite losing they out gained them by +146 yards. So that's 376 yards separating Pitt and UNC. I really expect a dominant day from UNC's front 7 and hey that secondary isn't bad either ranking 14th overall. Look for a low scoring game, but for UNC's defense to be a difference maker.

Chargers +3.5 Buy 1/2 (-120) 4DIMES + Under 47.5 1 dime bonus
I can't help but bet on this kind of value with the Chargers. I don't buy into the this team has more motivation and it doesn't matter because the Chargers need one more win to clinch the 2nd seed anyway. The defense the Chargers have been playing with in the red zone is my reason here and although I can see the Titans winning I don't think it will happen. Although there are three wins during their streak against solid teams in Houston, Arizona, and Miami all by 3 points so if they do win this game I bet it's by 3 points so buy the points here! Titans are #31 in pass defense and things are just clicking for Phillip Rivers and company. However, I do like for the Titans to play well int he red zone too in what should not be a track meet! I think these totals are way too high at 47.5 and for that I am going under as a small bonus. Enjoy your Christmas!

SMU +13 BODOG 3.3 DIME PLAY + .7DIMES ON SMU +360
Well some of you may be surprised, but taking under dogs has never scared me. Hope you all have a great holiday and with not much else going on here on the eve of Christmas the Hawaii Bowl should be on everyone's TV. Tonight SMU has all the motivational advantage against the WAC team.

First of all we can talk this match up comes down to two things. SMU's suspect run defense vs. Nevada's #1 running game, and Nevada's suspect #119 pass defense vs. SMU's #28 passing attack. Well along with those two things I also like SMU to have a bit of a motivational and emotional advantage which is more of a big deal than you realize. Nevada may come out a little flat because of the crushing loss to Boise in the WAC title game. They made that game closer than it really was at 44-33. Now SMU comes in without the nerves as they haven't been to a bowl game in 25 years, but enter June Jones the former Hawaii coach and in his second year this team is going bowling and ironically back to the place where June Jones used to play Nevada, Hawaii. I just believe SMU is going to come out wiht an intensity like no other in this game. While their rank says they are #100 in rushing game since Kyle Padron took over at QB it has really opened up the game and they do feature a 100 yard rusher in Shawnbrey McNeal.

Why can SMU stop the run? Well they really can't let's be honest here Nevada is going to runt he ball 90% of the time and are #1 in rush defense, but if they can make some opportunistic stops they will be right in the thick of things and that is what this defense has done all year. This rush defense is a little better than many are giving them credit for they are ranked #88 but faced a 61 rushing attack while Nevada #1 in rush offense has only faced an average 87th ranked opponent. Okay so there is one team that SMU played that can be compared to this game and that was Navy. Now Navy #4 in rushing the ball has a better defense than what Nevada has and in that game SMU lost in OT 35-38. Also note that Nevada's three headed monster rushing attack featuring three 1,000 rushers is going to be without one in monster Lippincott who is out for this game. The key for SMU is get their passing game going against Nevada and get out to a lead which shouldn't be a problem considering....

Nevada has not fared well against talented passing games and with Padron going to Sanders the all time SMU leading receiver it will mean trouble for Nevada. Emmanuel Sanders has 91 receptions 1,215 yards receiveing both records at SMU. He has speed to burn and get pick you apart when he goes deep or when he catches slant routes and gets yard after the catch. Remember June Jones knows Nevada as he is 4-0 against them in Honolulu. Also worth noting is that Nevada's defensive coordinator has left the program to take the coaching job at Portland State. This leaves Nevada in even more trouble in my opinion. Let's just go over the numbers here. Against Top 35 passing attacks which SMU falls under, Nevada game up 34.66 points per game and were 3-3. Only one game would have covered the spread they have here. SMU arguably has better defenses than Notre Dame (L0-35), Utah State (W35-32), Idaho (W70-45), Hawaii (31-21). This game should be extremely interesting and a shoot out in the end I think SMU will have a good shot at winning this game outright. Or worse case a back door passing TDs gets the cover.

Utah +3 (3.5 Dime NCAAF POD) + ML +145 (1-Dime Bonus)
Got to come with the Utes in this situation. They own the leagues longest Bowl streak and have one of the better defenses. Against similar defense of Arizona, Oregon, USC, and Arizona State Cal did not come up with a lot of points in fact they averaged 13.25ppg. Utah is that type of defense closely resembling USC in terms of overall, but the main difference is the pass defense. Utah ranked #14 in the nation in pass defense and Cal has not faced a pass defense as good as Utah. I think Cal QB Kevin Riley will be in for quite a night. He has been inconsistent and I don't see him being able to do much which mean it will fall on the shoulders of backup RB Vareen. Vareen will get his yards, but I think Utah is slightly under rated against the run because they struggled down the stretch without their DT Kenape Eliapo who was out with eye injuries. He'll be back in this game.

Overall Utah has played better football and despite the game against TCU they have remained close in all three of their losses to top 25 teams. Including Oregon a common opponent where they almost came up with the tie, but fell short 24-31. This was @ Oregon and they were just -15 yards while Cal visited Oregon and were -317 yards and lost 3-42. Another example is what Utah did against BYU losing by three in OT. Why I bring up that is because Cal also faced a team that played last night this season in Oregon State who they lost to 14-31. So If Cal got smashed by Oregon, got beaten by 17 to Oregon State who lost 44-20 to BYU who Utah hung right with shouldn't Utah win tonight? I believe they can and will. Which is why I'll have a bonus on the money line for 1 dime. Utah is 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games while Cal is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as favorites 0.5 to 3.

I really think Cal gets beat here it is as if they are throwing in their towels after the disappointing loss to Washington to wrap up the season 42-10. That loss placed them in this bowl instead of the Sun Bowl against Oklahoma. I just do not think they will match Utah's intensity and they have never played well in San Diego as favorites in bowl games losing both out right. MWC is already 2-0 in bowl games where they were dogs this will be a huge statement game for the conference.

Oregon State -2.5 *4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
This will be a gold members club play and a NCAAF POD. A rare 4.5 Dime play where I have been cashing all season long!

My initial thought on the game was PAC-10 over MWC, but it's never that easy as BYU has played well in this bowl game. After looking at the match up further it was confirmed that I will be going with Oregon State here. There is just too much talent on the field for Oregon State with the Rodgers brothers and lefty QB Sean Canfield may surprise some as being the better QB on the field as he has completed more than 70% of his passes which is quite impressive. James Rodgers will take back kicks and punts and give Oregon State great field position all day long. I really like what I saw from Oregon State in the Civil War game. I was on Oregon in that game but the Beavers played a great game and I'm not worried about a let down. Ya this team lost that game and won't go to the Rose Bowl, but this is an opportunity to be recognized next year as a Top 25 team in the pre season polls as they will return 18 of their 22 starters. Oregon State also has a considerable advantage in the field goal game as Justin Kahut is 22 of 27 and 15 of 16 from inside 47 yards while Mitch Payne does not kick many and is just 9 for 13 on the year. Oregon State takes a 5 game winning streak in bowl games into this game and under Mike Riley they are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. Oregon State is more battle tested and although they will have periods of struggle in their pass defense they will rebound with the balanced offense that BYU won't be able to stop.

BYU's QB Max Hall is one of the better QB's to come through the University. However, in his three year starting career he has just 13 games where he did not throw an interception. He often forces the ball and tries to make too much happen. Sometimes that is a good thing and it's worked well for him against inferior defenses and opponents. However, against a PAC-10 talent like Oregon State that played significantly better down the stretch against the pass, I don't see him having one of those games. Yes, he'll have time as Oregon State had just 15 sacks in the regular season, but in the end BYU won't get the stops on defense. Against the two strong opponents this year Florida State and TCU they lost by a combined score of 92-35. While I'm not calling for a blow out I really can see Oregon State putting up 40 points on this defense. They are very similar to Florida States offensive ranks that featured a strong passing game and mid running game. Florida State put up 54 points on BYU and they are significantly worse defensively than Oregon State. Overall BYU has had a weaker schedule and has played 5 defenses that ranked outside the Top 100 of 120 in FBS total defense ranks. Oregon State on the other hand faced only two. I just do not believe BYU will have the answers on defense or special teams to stop Oregon State. In the end if you watch this game you will remember Quizz Rodgers and James Rodgers as potential Heisman Trophy candidates next year and Sean Canfield as an under rated Sr. who can play at the next level if given a chance.

Finally BYU 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, and Oregon State 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MWC. Why this line may look to good to be true? Well BYU had periods of good play against Oklahoma and they did crush UNLV while Oregon State just got by 23-21. Well Oklahoma seems like years ago and that was when Sam Bradford was injured. Bottom line the weakness of Oregon State is the pass defense, but they have improved throughout the season and I believe Mike Riley will have his team ready in this one.

Redskins +3 **4.4 Dime NFL POD
The home dog on Monday night worked well for us last week with the 49ers who in a divisional game were supposed to have really nothing to play for and dominated as a home dog. This Monday we go with the same strategy of taking a home dog on Monday night. Redskins whose offense has struggled this year leading to their 4-9 record. However, since Sherm Lewis took over the play calling it's been a difference maker and in their last 3 games they are 29.3 ppg. Some players have emerged including TE Fred Davis and WR Devin Thomas who have been the go to guys for Jason Campbell. Right now I just do not have any confidence in the Giants defense with players running wide open against them the last few weeks. This team lost badly to the Broncos and the Saints. While the Redskins beat the Broncos and had the Saints beat until some miracles went the Saints way. Redskins 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as an underdog while the Giants are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Monday night games. Really like for the Giants to lose this game and finally fall out of the playoff picture although they could still get in even with a loss because they have the tie breaker over the Cowboys if they ever end up with the same record. These Redskins want to play spoiler and they will do a good job of it tonight.

MTSU +4 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I am a little late on this play and I apologize. Got hit by 2 feet of snow today in the northeast and it really threw my schedule off. Either way I love this play for Middle Tennesee and I'll take the points.

Southern Miss has a great offense 28th in the country, but they have faced an average 84th ranked defense. I'm not sold on this offense to really take them over the hill because their defense is pretty bad. In their 4 games against "good defenses" they were 2-2 and only 1 game would have covered the spread we get here and that was against UCF in game 1 of the season when they won by 7. Middle Tenn has a solid defense ranked 48th and as it stands right now ranking wise it will be the best defense they have faced all year long, but you can't rank those stats like that because of strength of competition. One thing we do know is MTSU's defense is better than SMISS because they both played the same strength of schedule in terms of offenses they faced (65th average) and MTSU comes out on top and balanced. They also have the defensive front to disrupt SMISS offense.

MTSU led the nation this year in tackles for loss and was 4th in sacks. Granted it was against some poor offenses in the Sun Belt, but I do not like Southern Miss' chances here tonight to out score Dwight Dasher the QB of MTSU should have been the conference player of the year he had 21 passing TD's and 10 on the ground. He will take over this game when he has to and SMISS might fall even as favorites.

These two teams have one common opponent in Memphis. Both won the game while MTSU won 31-14 and SMISS won 36-16, both games at home. MTSU outgained Memphis by 217 yards while SMISS was out gained by 69 yards. That's good for nearly a 300 yard difference. That tells me that MTSU has a better defense and offense and even though it's a one game sample their is plenty other criteria that I have put into my thoughts on this game. SMISS really has not played well on the road this year going 1-5 while MTSU was 4-2 on the road. MTSU is 8-3 ats in their last 11 non-conference games and 8-2 ats in their last 10 after allowing less than 20 points to an opponent in their previous game. Many may think the passing on both sides will light up the sky but I think this will be a lower scoring game than many think.

Titans -4.5 (4.4 Dime NFL POD)
Well I really like the Titans here on Sunday I don't think the Dolphins have the guy to contain Chris Johnson and with Vince Young coming back into the picture that means Kenny Britt will wake up and the offense too. Despite scoring 47 pts last week it was all Young early before he got hurt. The defense also playing well right now should be able to shut down an average Dolphins offense and knock them out of the playoffs.

49ers +4.5 as a 4 Dime NFL POD
I said to myself if the Niners got to +4 I'd take them. I was lucky enough to find it at +4.5 and if you can't get it at that you should buy the 1/2 point.

I knew the public would pound this number hard after they watched the Cards beat up on the Vikings big last week on Sunday night. Cardinals are 0-1 ATS in the following week after a Sunday Night game. They lost the next week at home to the Panthers 21-34. While the Cardinals should have plenty of motivation with revenge as they lost to the 49ers the 1st time they also were without Boldin and Breaston. I still think that the 49ers defense without Nate Clements will get enough preasure on Warner to keep the passing game in check. 49ers have 11 sacks in their last 2 games, and they had 3 sacks in the first match up between these two. 49ers at home on Monday Night are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 including 2 wins at home in their last two. This will be the game of the year for the 49ers in my opinion and they'd like to win it to stay in the playoff talks as long as possible.

As I mentioned Cardinals are coming off a huge win to the Vikings at home, and while they have been solid on the road at 5-1 they have not in their last two games winning by just 8 points to the leagues worst Rams and then losing @ the Titans. With the exception of 1 loss to the Atlanta Falcons every single one of the 49ers losses has come by 7 or fewer points with 4 of them coming within the number we need to cover here tonight. I think they have an excellent shot at covering this number as they played extremely well against quality teams, and against two similar type teams in the Texans and the Colts on the road they lost by a field goal and 4 points to the Colts. Why I bring that up is because both of those teams have excellent passing offenses and similar type defenses, although the Cardinals are much worse against the pass (31st) than the Texans (17th) and Colts (20th).

A lot has changed since Week #1 for both of these teams most notably the 49ers QB who has really benefited from the new spread offense out of the shot gun. I think he's going to surprise the Cardinals defense and Vernon Davis will have a big game. Just one team has given up more TD's (7) to Tight Ends this season and that team is the Lions. While the Cardinals have Boldin and Breaston in this game the 49ers also add a playmaker of their own in Michael Crabtree. Huge game at home for these Niners and as I already say they play up to the level of competition and it's because of this defense. They are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 as dogs and the dog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two.

Take Texans 4.5 Dime NFL POD
I'm going with the Texans here today. Matt Schaub and co. will eat up the Seattle defense traveling west. Seahawks are 25th in pass defense and despite really being out of the playoffs the Texans will continue to fight and play hard in my opinion. Seahawks have had a disappointing season and are 1-5 on the road. Both teams likely will have new coaches next year, but Houston has much more talent on both sides of the ball and still feels like they need to prove that they are better than their record indicates. I think they roll in this game and I'm not afraid to lay the 7 points.

Steelers -10 +103 4DIME NFL POD + 2 DIME BONUS 1H @ -6.5 (-105) Lines by 5DIMES
Listen it has been bad for the Steelers and their defense has not played well, especially without Troy Polamalu. However, I'll give this defense the edge over the Browns. Also coaching Tomlin over Magini on a short week.

In the last game the Steelers turned the ball over 4 times to the Browns and still got out with a win 27-14. They also had 543 total yards the 2nd most by any team in 2009. Browns defense has shown it can be good, but not here and not against this type of team and not with the key injuries along the defensive line. Shaun Rogers - gone for the season, and CJ Mosley gone for the season. Those are two key injuries that will give the Steelers an opportunity to run the ball here tonight and play their smash mouth football. Browns are 32nd last in the league in overall defense, 25th against the pass and 29th against the run they will continue to struggle and against a very hungry Steelers team. I don't normally take double digit favorites on the road in a division game but this game to me just screams blow out and it's mainly because of the key injuries up front for the Browns. Now Pit has not played good defense as of late but Brady Quinn has never seen this Steelers defense before even witout Polamalu this team is above average and they have to have a chip on their shoulder after being called out by their coach this week and the media saying that they can't play without Polamalu.

Expect an aggresive attack at the line from Pit D, a defense that's ranked #1 against the run still but 17th in passing. I'm not confident Brady Quinn can get his team going and although he has thrown 7 TD to 0 INT's in his last three games that was against the Chargers suspect pass D where all his yards came in the 4th quarter and then most of them came against the bad Lions. Cleveland was down 27-3 to start the fourth quarter against the Chargers on Sunday and had scored just 6 points in their last 11 quarters at home. Then the Chargers defense relaxed and gave up two TD's. Because of that we sit here with a some what of a gift from the oddsmakers because that along with the Steelers 4th quarter collapsed moved this line by 3+ points in my opinion. If the Steelers don't collapse and the Chargers don't collapse in the 4th we likely have a 14 point or more spread. The Steelers have lost their last three games after leading the game after the third quarter. Meaning they will be extremely focused with their playoff hopes on the line here tonight.

I really look for the Steelers to open it up on offense being able to run the ball all night and in the predicted weather we are hearing that will be a good thing as they are #1 against the run and I don't see the inexperienced running backs of Cleveland to have a chance to run the ball against the #1 run defense. Steelers will be + in TO margin this time around and win by more than 13.

Take Packers -3 **4-Dime NFL POD
I have to be honest my other NFL picks have been garbage actually anything but my POD's have been garbage lately. Has to do with bad luck in some cases, but overall the POD's have been hitting and that is what I'm going to concentrate on to close out the season.

Not my normal 4.5 NFL POD, but tonight I thought there was value on both sides here. However, then I saw the Packers have some extra time off after Thanksgiving Day, while the Ravens just fought off an emotional win against the Steelers. It was a hard hitting game and it came at a price as their best blitzer Terrel Suggs is now hurt and won't play tonight. That's a big deal considering the Packers lead the league in sacks given up. Packers will have a huge advantage in the mid-range passes as Fabian Washington also out and his replacement Bush should be picked on all night. Ravens are #21 in sack % and with their best out tonight I'd say the Packers should be fine.

Common sense would tell most people that the Ravens have the better defense, but on the contrary the Packers at home are giving up just 19.2 pts and 289.5 yards per game, while the Ravens on the road are giving up 20.6 pts and 349.6 yards. Ravens are beatable through the air and the packers have a top flight passing offense with weapons all over the field in Driver/Jennings/Nelson and TE weapons too. If Baltiomore wants to come with the blitz that's fine as backup RB Brandon Jackson has seen a lot of action on the HB screen. So Baltimore's defense has been playing better recently giving up 17 or fewer points in 5 stratight games well if we look at their last three which consisted of Pit, Indy, and Cleveland they faced an average pass offense 18th, and rushing offense 23rd. Those are well below GB's ranks and on the other side GB's defense has been tested more from a statistical perspective facing 16th ranked passing offense and 20th ranked running offense, and the numbers come out identical in terms of yards allowed. Baltimore allowed 277 and Green Bay allowed 278. The biggest difference was GB giving up just 67.7 yards rushing while Baltimore gave up 105 which is above their season average.

So will we have a close game here tonight? Yes of course, but even with the field goal as a favorite on Monday Night I feel confident backing the Packers with the extra rest and momentum of playing their best football of the season against a Ravens team that continues to struggle to find consistent play. Their defense will be tested and the offense should be forced into some turnovers themselves as Charles Woodson has become a candidate for defensive player of the year.

Take Redskins +10 4.5 Dime NFL POD
I don't know if any one has been paying attention but the Redksins are and have been playing some good ball. Double Digit home dogs today against the best in the NFC off an emotional win against Patriots on Monday. I'll take the Redskins they have the defense to lose within 10 points in my opinion and most likely will.

Take Alabama +6 -115 BODOG + Alabama +3 1st Half (1.5 Dimes) Alabama +195 (1-Dime)
This is it it's the game of the year SEC Championship game probably the hardest conference to go undefeated in yet here it is Florida vs. Alabama.

Everyone is still all over Florida and it has chased this line up to 6 points. Alabama is much more talented defensively this year than last year and on the other side Florida won't have play makers Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy instead Riley Cooper and TE Aaron Hernandez are the major weapons. What that means is the 4th quarter come back that Tebow had last year won't happen again this year. If you recall Alabama led 20-17 after three quarters and Parker Wilson was 1-4 with a sack and interception in the 4th quarter while Tebow was 4-4 72 yards. That was the difference. Unfortunately Florida just does not have as many weapons as a year ago which is pretty obvious considering they haven't blown anyone out of the water and they've had tough times moving the football against many teams int he SEC including Tennessee.

Lucky for Florida Alabama has had as many issues and has yet to put back to back games together but this is the game Alabama has been looking to win for over a year ever since they let last years opportunity slip away. They find them selves nearly touch down under dogs and will be extremely motivated in this one. Maybe they come up short by a FG or maybe they win by a field goal, but in the end I think Alabama gets this game this year. These teams are just too close for a team to be under dog by 5.5-6 points. I'll go over the key SEC rankings. Scoring offense Florida #2, Alabama #4, Scoring Defense Alabama #1 and Florida #2, Rushing Offense Alabama #4 and Florida #1. Rushing Defense Alabama #1 and Florida #2. Here is the big difference though Alabama holding opponents 77.1 rushing yards per game while Florida 89.9. This along with Florida missing Dunlap for his DUI suspension is a huge advantage to Alabama. Especially when both teams rely heavily on their running games. Look for Alabama's NT Cody to clog up the middle and the Alabama LB will keep Tebow in check all day long.

Folks this is going to be a great defensive game and a classic it has everything but in the end the difference is Red Zone offense and Red zone defense which Alabama ranked #6 in red zone offense in the SEC while Florida 10th, and Red Zone defense Alabama #1 and Florida #3. There you have it and you heard it hear Alabama wins in a slug fest. Enjoy

Take OHIO +14 BODOG (4-Dime NCAAF POD)
This should be a great game and even for the MAC that's saying a lot. The MAC will be getting tons of attention tonight in this match up at Ford Field in Detroit. It should be extremely exciting.

For me I like Ohio as they have been playing their best football and have the players on defense to stop Mr. Dan Lefevour. Ohio only lost a year ago to the Chips 31-28 and they are playing much better than last year. 14 points is a lot in a championship game and the spread has climbed there due to the unfortunate injuries of Brazil and Scott. Theo Scott has been incredible and in the last two games he has delivered against the MAC's #1 and #3 defenses in Temple and Northern Illinois. Scott delivered with 3TD passes against NILL on 17 of 21 324 yards and 5 total TD's against Temple two rushing. He is now listed as probable and saw some practice time this week. He is the key to this team's chances and a team that was ranked among the worst in red zone offense is now getting into the end zone in their last two games against quality opponents who were playing for a chance at the MAC title. In the end it was Frank Solich's great coaching that has turned this team around from where they were struggling earlier in the season. Ohio has really impressed me more and more each time I've watched them as Scott not only has the ability to run but throw accurate passes while protecting the football. Ohio has forced 35 turnovers this season while Cmich has only turned the ball over 13 times, Ohio is one of the best at taking the ball away via the fumble or interceptions.

It's not crazy to think that Ohio can win this game out right as we have seen shocking out comes in the past between the MAC teams in the title games. The east and west are not separated by much as last year it was Buffalo forcing turnover after turnover in an upset over undefeated Ball State. Sound familiar? In 2005 it was Akron getting a last second score to break N. Illinois' heart.

Central Michigan has handled everyone in the MAC relatively easily except Buffalo where they won by just a TD. Ohio has a better defense than Buffalo and can stop the pass as they are tops in the MAC in pass effeciency defense. Ohio has had a more challenging schedule in terms of defenses they have seen. They have seen both Uconn and Tennessee and have been in both games losing those two games by a combined 18 points on the road. Now we saw Central Michigan get exposed against Boston College and Arizona. A solid defense can stop the Chippewas. Ohio ranked 35th nationally have the ability to force Lefevour to throw underneath and they have the linebackers to contain him in the running game as linebackers Lee Renfro and Noah Keller are among the better duo in the MAC. Keller at MLB is all over the field and leads the team with 122 tackles. They were able to contain a temple running game that is much better than Central Michigan and if they can get a turnover or two like they usually do they could very well pull off the impossible. In the end what I truly believe is Central Mich will be up by a TD late in the 4th and Ohio will be stopped. Central Mich gets the ball back and gets a few first downs to run out the clock. However, I feel strongly the ability for OHIO to win is there and that is why I am backing them big in this one!

Take jets -3 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
I'm going with the Jets for many reasons here. Yes, the Bills have played better since Juron was fired and the offense is clicking a bit, but let's take note that they faced the Jaguars 26th pass defense and the Dolphins 24th. T.O. will be shut down by the leagues best corner in Darrel Revis and the Jets 2nd ranked pass defense. The defense that had a couple of bad games showed why they were picked to be one of the best defenses earlier in the season last week. They finally forced some turnovers and while Fitzpatrick may be smart as he graduated from Harvard I think the Jets may confuse him this week. Jets are a better team with Kerry Rhodes not starting and that's exactly what will be the case again on Thursday. Although Rhodes got two INTs last week it was more due to bad throws that ended up in his lap. Rhodes the former pro bowl player has been benched by Rex Ryan and he'll likely play out of nickel and dime situations. Erik Smith is the better option in stopping the run something they'll have to do against a very physical Fred Jackson.

Bottom line both teams need this game and it's a big advantage and a nice break for the Jets that this game will be played in Canada. Buffalo is one of the tougher places to play inside the AFC East, but Canada won't be an advantage. Look for the Jets running game to click here against the Bills as they rushed for 318 yards in week 6 behind 210 from Thomas Jones. OC of the Jets Brian Shottenheimer finally got the message "RUN THE BALL" and protect your QB. They did that a week ago and they'll do more of it this week with a couple shots down the field to Edwards or Keller. That will be enough to keep the ground moving and I think the Jets D shuts down the Bills. It took the Jets worse game of the year to fall by 3 points the last time these faced in OT. There were 7 turnovers 6 interceptions and countless penalties that cost this team the game late. That won't happen again and Rex Ryan being the emotional guy he is will have this team ready for revenge after losing to this team the last time.

Take Patriots +1.5 4.5 Dime POD
I have been on fire with my NFL POD's 9-1 now in my last 10. I'll keep it going here tonight with the Patriots. The Patriots are averaging 32.7 points and giving up just 22 on turf this year. I do recall a similar situation where they went on a Sunday Night game against the Colts an undefeated team, on turf. Yes they lost, but it was by 1 point and they led 24-14 at one time and should have won the game. Actually the Saints have many similarities and in the end it's my opinion that the Colts are better. Again I always have to take the AFC team in a close match up. Colts have a better scoring defense and rushing defense, but their passing defense is a little weaker than the Saints 20th ranked vs. 16th. However, the Saints are banged up a bit in their secondary. The Saints have had issues with the AFC this year and were lucky enough to come out 3-0 vs. the Patriots division opponents. Against the Bills they were winning just 10-7 going into the 4th, Dolphins they were losing 34-24 going into the 4th quarter and won, and then vs. Jets they were up 17-10 going into the 4th. All three teams had a chance to win this game. Patriots just seem to know how to beat these type teams or at least stay in the game. Patriots will win in a high scoring affair.

Take Titans -2 4.5 Dime POD
I'm going with the Titans here at home they got the 4 game winning streak and are playing maybe better than any other team in the league. The Vince Young option has looked amazing and so have the Titans. The Cardinals are good don't get me wrong, but I always take AFC over NFC in this situation except for T-day when I had the Giants. I learned real quick that the AFC is the far superior league over the NFC. Titans want to win out, and the Cardinals just won't be able to match the hard hitting here today and Chris Johnson will run loose!

Take Kentucky +3 +100 SIA 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
Not only are Kentucky at home, but Tennessee is 0-3 on the road this year and this is the first time they are favorites. They have some major injuries that are a cause of concern for their great defense. They are extremely thin and it's going to hurt them in this game. You have already seen the line which opened at +3.5 come down in many places and in some places it moved to 2.5 today.

I think Kentucky has faced an equally challenging schedule, and in fact they have faced an average defense ranked 41st while TN has faced 46th. Kentucky has a similar rushing attack to Mississippi and maybe even better now that Derrick Locke is 100% healthy. They add WR Randall Cobb int he wild cat and that could spell issues with TN which had all kinds of problems with McCluster out of the wild cat. TN seems to have issues stopping runners that are small and quick, and while Locke fits the bill he's not exactly McCluster yet. I can see Kentucky pounding the ball all day long and dominating the time of possession something TN has got to be afraid of because if they don't get up and they are forced to throw it could get ugly. Even though Crompton has had an excellent season Kentucky has possibly the best shut down CB Trevard Lindley finally getting healthy and helping the defense force turnovers which they did a lot of against Georgia.

Derrick Locke also leads the SEC with a 30.5 kickoff return average and is a threat to bring it back every time and should give Kentucky good field position all day long. With that said Kentucky has lost to TN 24 straight times and it's something they are not taking lightly. Both teams are in a bowl game and Kentucky with a win could move to 8-4 and go to an even bigger bowl game which is the goal here. I look for DT Corey Peters to plug the middle and stop Montario Hardesty early giving Kentucky the advantage by getting an early lead.

Take Ohio +3 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I'm going with Ohio the team with the knack for the big play and turnovers. They are second in the nation with 32 forced turnovers. This defense has been tested before and has answered the bell. They have a more challenging schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced compared to temple who has seen an average 79th total offensive teams this year while Ohio comes in at 67th.

The Keys to the game:
It's pretty simple to be honest get a lead early. Which ever team gets the early lead is going to win. If Temple can run the ball with a lead Ohio is in trouble, because Temple has the biggest O'line that Ohio will face. However, they came up huge a week ago against N. Illinois a mirror image on offense to Temple holding Chad Span to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of 103 rushing yards. N. Illinois still hung 31 up on Ohio in a loss, but they have QB that has a little more experience than Temple's starter Chester Stewart who can hurt you with his arm and feet, but lacks accuracy as he was just 6-16 a week ago. That's huge especially against a defense that can pick the ball off and I believe they will here today. Stewart is going to have to have a big game against Ohio as they will stack the box to stop the running game that has been hurt by injury their stud freshmen Bernard Pierce 1,349 and 15TD's is out for the game and miniature Matt Brown 5 foot 5 167 lbs won't have the same effect and should be contained by Ohio.

With that said if Ohio can contain Brown they will force TO's, and that will allow Theo Scott to hit the mid range passes like I know he can to his very talented receiving duo Brazill, and Price. Price who needs two TD catches to become Ohio's all time leader in TD receptions can take over a game and has game breaking speed. While Brazill is just that guy that reminds me of Hines Ward has a knack for the ball on third down and superb hands. You can also add in Terrence McCrae who will make some plays. Bottom line this game comes down to who can limit the TO's and throw the ball and I put it on Theo Scott the redshirt Sr. to get the job done against his counterpart.

Yes, Temple 3-0 on the road in the MAC, but the opponents have a combined 7-27 record, so this will be a completely different situation and environment with actual noise. I don't know if they can handle it on Black Friday!

Packers -11 @ -108 4-Dime NFL POD Over 47 2-Dime Bonus
I'm going with the Packers and the over here. It's bad news for the Lions as their two young stars don't look like they will be playing on Thursday. Stafford is out for sure, and Culpepper will get the start which he did the last time he faced the Packers and what did he do well he got hurt too and combined with Drew Stanton 11-25 105 yards 3 interceptions in a 26-0 loss @ Green Bay.

Rodgers on the other hand was great going 29-37 358 yards 2TD 1 INT. Honestly they should have scored more than 26 points and this time around I think they get into the 30's easily. The injuries from the Packers defense is enough for the Lions to score double digits as Al Harris and Kampan create some match up advantages. However, it will be mostly the Packers on this day I am afraid. Throw the short rest road trip out the Packers will be plenty up for this game at 6-4 facing a bad team divisional or not the Packers have played back to back solid games defensively and offensively to move to 6-4. A win here keeps them a step up on the Wild Card competition.

If Cleveland's Brady Quinn can move around and throw four 4 TD's imagine what Aaron Rodgers will be able to do. The injuries on defense were huge, but the offense is getting healthy with Clifton back Rodgers won't be getting sacked every other play any longer. Along with that Greg Jennings finally had a big game last week. I look for all that to continue as well as his new favorite weapon Finley TE.

Take Titans +4 (3.5 Dime NFL POD)
I'm going with the Titans since Vince Young has taken over they have won three straight and have put up 30, 34, and 41 points respectively and they weren't playing trash defenses in Jaxonville, Buffalo and 49ers all who I have respect for in their own way.

Titans 11-4 ATS all time vs. the Texans have lost the last two SU and ATS but are 5-0 ATS in the previous 5. However, the loss has Titans players burning. Bo Scaife quoted, "We owe them and they know it." Titans man handled the Texans on the ground as Chris Johnson had 197 yards rushing on 16 carries in week2. On the season Johnson averages 6.4 ypc and should be able to run the ball here again tonight against the 13th ranked rushing defense. The key here for the Titans is stopping the passing game of Houston. Andre Johnson had 10 receptions and 149 yards the first time around, but a lot is different this time around. Not only does Schaub not have the cushion or security blanket in Owen Daniels who is on the IR and had 6 receptions 72 yards and a TD 1st time around. This should effect the effectiveness of the Texans passing offense. Titans are ranked 31st against the pass but they are now a lot healthier than the 1st time around and have started to win games because of that health.

Additionally these two teams always play close games as the dog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Titans are very good as dogs 9-1 ATS last 10 3.5-10 points and are 16-7 in their last 23 overall as dogs.

Take 49ers +7 4-Dime POD
Yes, the Packers showed up and played well against the Cowboys in a game they absolutely needed. Now they will play the Niners who have very quietly been a tough opponent on the road. In the faces of the Cardinals they won, they lost by 3 @ Minnesota in what was a Favre miracle, and they led late in Indinapolis but fell by 4 points all three of those teams are better than the Packers. 49ers also get 3 extra days of preparation time as they are coming off a Thursday win against the Bears.

This is a unique situation because the Packers will also be playing on Thanksgiving day and will have the short rest in the back of their minds for sure. The 49ers picked off Jay Cutler 5 times in their last game and their defense is very solid under their head coach Mike Singletary. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shut down Aaron Rodgers at all in what I think will be a very close game in Green Bay.

pick and write up due back shortly

Take Panthers -3 (3.5 Dime NFL POD)
Panthers are on fire and it's mainly due to the fact that they went back to running the ball and the result has been three straight games for Delhomme without an interception. That's impressive considering in the middle of those three games he played the Saints who lead the league in interceptions. While the Cardinals are 10th and Falcons 22nd. The Dolphins stand in tied at 16th with just 8 interceptions. The secondary ranks 28th in the league and I've seen it with my own eyes get picked apart. Also despite having the 7th ranked rush defense I have seen them get run all over by the Jets twice. Now the Jets rank #1 in rushing and have a more aggressive offensive line, but the two are very similar with a better running back in D. Williams.

Actually the Panthers went on the road just a few weeks ago facing a similar defense in the Cardinals who are ranked 22nd overall 30th against the pass, and 8th against the run, and 12th in points. Dolphins similarly are 20th, 28th, 7th, 28th. I look for the Panthers to continue to run the ball and pass without turnovers.

Dolphins will be fighting something else life without Ronnie Brown. Brown responsible for the majority of the wild cat offense will now be split by White and Williams now I don't know how effective that will be, plus the Dolphins have had just 3 games to prepare for the game and life without Ronnie Brown who is lost for the season.

Take Central Mich -8.5 w/ Miami OH +10
We get Miami OH on a key number and Central Michigan far enough away from 10 if you feel the need to buy down an extra 1/2 point for -8 and +10.5 to avoid the push so be it, but I believe you will be fine.

Why Central Michigan?
Well first things first, I believe in this team and they had a tough non-conference schedule with all three games coming on the road against Boston College, Arizona, and Michigan State not one of those teams is anything to roll your eyes about all three of those teams are bowl worthy in their respective conferences, ACC, Pac-10, and Big 10. Ball State the MAC darlings a year ago lost much of their talent and have not been able to compete. Their non-conference opponents consist of New Hampshire, Army and Auburn. ust don't see how Ball State can play defense and score enough points in this one to make it a game. I didn't like the 14.5 points Vegas was giving us however as they have played better behind Sr. Tanner Justice who replaced redshirt Freshmen Kelly page. Even then then Justice and the passing game has passed for an average of 59.7 yards per game. This allows Central Michigan to concentrate on Miquale Lewis who is having another strong year, but when Central Mich gets up early as I expect them to it will turn the passing game where it may just be asking to get in trouble. Central Michigan fresh off a 5 turnover game and that was against a solid QB in Zach Maynard. Buffalo is last in the MAC in turnover margin and I don't expect them to win that here tonight either. Look for another huge game from Dan LeFevour on national TV. He has more to prove and wants to win the MAC. Central Mich have won all three of their road games in the MAC all to better teams in Bowling Green, Western Mich, and Buffalo.

Why Miami OH?
Arguably the toughest schedule in the MAC they have faced non-conference teams Kentucky, Boise State, and Cincinnati. Buffalo played Pitt and Gardner Webb. Miami OH has faced a much tougher road with average opponents in the 50's combined for both total offense and total defense. Much lower than Buffalo which has faced an average 63rd ranked defense and an average 71st ranked offense. That's not even counting Gardner Webb who we can't possibly rank considering they are not Div 1A team.

The story here is Miami's Zac Dysert who will look to bounce back from last weeks disaster. He is a shining star in the MAC and could take over next year as the best QB when LeFevour leaves for the NFL. In just 8 starts he ranks third among the conference QBs with 2,417 yards passing. While they lost a tough game to Bowling Green last week it was mostly because of the turnovers as this team got off to a 14-0 lead once it came unraveled it really came unraveled. Look for the Red Hawks to bounce back against a Buffalo team that is licking it's wounds. Buffalo just can't win the close games. Zach Maynard is one of the better QBs in the conference Miami OH 33rd ranked pass defense will be up to the task at hand. I don't know if Buffalo's secondary can stop Dysert who got picked apart late and did not look good against Ohio a team that is more known for its running. A tough loss at home for Buffalo now has to go on the road to Miami OH. If they win here they won't be winning by more than 10 that's for sure.

Take Ravens -10 buy 1/2 point 3.5 Dime POD
I can't think of any reason to take the Browns other than what they did a year ago against the Giants at home on Monday Night. Major difference here tonight this is not a non-conference game. Not only is it a conference game, but it's a divisional game and the Ravens have to keep pace with the other wild card teams including the Steelers, and the Jaguars. Ravens are a proud team with a defense not playing up to its capabilities but is still ranked 7th in rush defense this year and shut down the Browns the first time 34-3 sending Brady Quinn to the bench.

Quinn back into the lineup off the bye will start for the Browns and I don't see what will change. They don't have a go to receiver and their defense is ranked last in the league. They are 25th against the pass and 31st against the run and 28th in points allowed. Ray Rice is going to have his way with the Browns rush defense all night long which will set up the pass enough for the Ravens to score into the 20's and maybe even into the 30's. Browns on the other hand unless they get some turnovers will most likely not going to score over 10 points in my opinion.

Take East Carolina +4 (4-Dime NCAAF POD)
I'm going with the Pirates here on Sunday. They have had 2 extra days to prepare and should be fresh for this game off their tough loss to Va Tech where they lost 16-3 after turning the ball over 3 times. This game should be a bit different as the key to the game for the Pirates is their Sr. QB Pinkney is 3-0 when they face a pass defense not ranked inside the 100 in the nation. Well look what we have here on Sunday Tulsa ranked 111th. They are ranked 36th against the rush, but they have faced an average 82nd ranked rushing offense. I look for East Carolina to have a major advantage up front on both sides of the ball but first on offense. The Pirates have scored 12 rushing TDs in their last 5 games after just 5 in their first four games. Dominique Lindsay is a beast averaging 5.7 yards per carry with 639 yards on the season after missing two games and back ups Jackson and Ruffin have some pop as well. I really like this match up even though they are on the road as Pinkney will have a big game throwing the ball to his target Harris. Tulsa has faced three offenses ranked in the top 60 in rushing the ball and the result were all losses. They started the season allowing not a single opponent of the first 6 to score a rushing TD but now there have been 4 in the last 3 games. East Carolina has faced tougher defenses all year long and it pays off here tonight as they get the much needed win to clinch another bowl birth.

On the other side of the ball Tulsa will have to face a defense that has dominated the C-USA. DE CJ Wilson will dominate Tulsa's offensive line which has allowed more sacks than all other schools but three this year. Tulsa QB Kinne will struggle to find his other receivers and turnovers will happen. His one target Damaris Johnson will be double covered all night long forcing Kinne to force throws. Before their 45 points against Houston which is awful defensively by the way Tulsa averaged just 21 points in their previous 4 games.

Bottom line I'm going with the better defense and the better running game in this game. I feel fortunate to be catching points in this match up. I don't think Tulsa rebounds here on Sunday from their devastating loss against Houston. I'm not sure how resilient they are but East Carolina smells the 4 teams 1 game behind them and needs a win just as bad.

Take Chargers pk 4.5 Dime POD
I got some great insider info on this game to play it hard.

I can't help but play it and we remember what the Eagles did the last time they were out here don't we? The Oakland Raiders beat up on the Eagles. yes, the Oakland Raiders. Eagles looked very ordinary last week in a loss to the Cowboys at home and now have to go back out west.

They played back to back hard hitting games against division rivals in the Giants and the Cowboys and now going out west to play a team that is just hot at the right time. Look for the Chargers to take this game by a TD

Take Panthers +1.5 as 4-Dime POD
79% of the public is on the Falcons on Sunday and the line has not moved, but that is not the only reason why I feel the need to go with the Panthers in this spot.

Panthers lost in the first match up 28-20, but they out gained the Falcons on the road 440-371. Since that game they have played much better and have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents and are 3-2. They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and come in with the #3 rushing attack and they will go up against the Falcons who have the 24th rushing defense.

Panthers at 3-5 need this division game to salvage their season if they have any hopes of returning to the playoffs. The combination of them playing at home and the Falcons struggles on the road have me loving the Panthers on Sunday. The Falcons are 1-3 on the road this year and their only win was @ SF in a rout. They will face the overall #9 total defense which is mostly solid against the pass but ranked #23 against the run. However, Ryan has struggled as of late and I think the Panthers D will have a big advantage here on Sunday.

Take Georgia -4 (4-Dime POD RU)(1-5scale) -105 @ BODOG
I'm going with the Bulldogs on Saturday despite their struggles they will get a nice boost when A.J. Green returns the lineup on Saturday. To me Auburn is still under rated and I said that in one of my bigger games of the year when I took Arkansas at home over Auburn and Auburn took care of business 44-23. Actually Auburn has only played 3 games on the road and this one being their 4th they lack the experience to win a big time game here on Saturday. They also lost @ LSU 10-31. Georgia played LSU too and lost by just a TD and were out gained by 100 less yards than Auburn.

The strength of schedule that Georgia has faced compared to Auburn is miles away in terms of what kind of defenses Georgia has had to go up against. An average 32nd ranked total defense compared to auburn's 50th ranked. While Auburn was off playing Furman, Ball State, and La Tech in non-conference play Georgia were being men in games against Oklahoma State and Arizona State from the Big 12 and Pac-10. Either way that's just a small sample, but Georgia which has better defensive rankings to begin with has also faced better offenses an average 59th ranked opponent to Auburn's 67th. Along with that Georgia also gets their best player back and home field advantage on their side against a team that has struggled on the road.

Auburn may lead the SEC in yards and second in scoring but most of them came against Ball State and Furman. They really are not as good as a 7-3 team. Take those two wins out and send them to play a Pac-10 and Big 12 team they could be sitting at 6-4 or 5-5 easily. However, I'll take it because Vegas is giving us less than a TD in a game where the better team will win. Not only does Georgia have that on their side they also have the fact that they need a win here to get into a bowl and Auburn does not. Georgia leads the SEC in fewest sacks allowed with just nine this year. So try again Auburn if you think you'll get to Cox pretty much their biggest defensive advantage.

The X-factor! Auburn has struggled in punt returns as they have had five returners and 4 have fumbled. This will be a huge advantage all day for Georgia if they have to kick because they have the nations best Punter and it's not even close. Drew Butler's 49.2 yard average on 40 punts leads the nation by almost 4 yards.

Take Tulane +3 (5-DIME NCAAF POD)(1-5 SCALE)
This is Rice's best shot at winning a game this year, but you won't know it at all as they are going to lose this game to a Tulane team that's 3-6 and not much better, but the coach is selling a 6-6 and a chance at a bowl bid. I'm buying what he's selling on Saturday and I think it's an awful match up for Rice unfortunately. This will be the worst offense and worst defense that Tulane has faced all year. They have had a strong schedule and what Rice does well is pass the ball and even there they are ranked 67th in the country and that was against an average 79th ranked opponent. Saturday they will face Tulane's C-USA leading pass defense that is ranked 51st in the nation. They have surely been tested facing an average opponent ranked 57th. Rices defense is yielding almost 44 points a game and Tulane should be able to move the ball as they have continued to improve throughout the year.

QB Ryan Griffin will make his fourth start. He had his most impressive start in his last game throwing for four touchdowns and no picks against UTEP in a come back win. This was a nice win for Tulane and should create all the momentum going into this game against a very bad Rice team. Tulane has the best players on the field with RB Andre Anderson getting the carries and WR Jeremy Williams. Coach Bob Toledo is supporting his team going for the chance to win out, and is not under estimating a winless Rice team considering they got romped a year ago 42-17. However, he said, "We were so beat up by then and we had lost Andre in the first quarter, they were a different football team we're a different football team."

I look for Tulane with the right attitude of wanting to win 3 more in a row and to get the revenge against a Rice team they should handle. Tulane can move the ball through the air or on the ground against this team. These teams have only one real common opponent and it was both home games against Tulsa. Both teams lost, while Rice was out gained by 194 yards, Tulane was only out gained by 48.

Again the strength of schedule and the offenses that Tulane have faced will help them in this game against a Rice team ranked 112th in total offense and their ability to use their strength to shut down the only thing Rice does well which is pass the ball.

Take Cincinnati -9.5 @ -109 (4-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with Cincinnati here and I'm taking the points. Just two weeks ago South Florida's offense was able to move the ball with a similar QB in BJ Daniels all over West Virginia. Daniels can pass and throw, and Zach Collaros who has come in for Pike and is likely to start for one more week is a more polished version of Daniels. Collaros is the reigning Big East player of the week after breaking a Big East conference record with 555 yards of total offense in a win over Uconn a pretty good defense to boot.

Now West Virginia had not faced a solid offense all year or even close to what Cincinnati can do. The only team close is Auburn and West Virginia lost by 11 on the road, but Cinci's defense is much better than Auburn in my opinion. West Virginia has faced an average offense ranked 79.5 and and average 83rd passing attack and their defense is only 60th against the pass? Wow they are in for a rude awakening and I think they know it as Cincinnati has weapons all over the field in Gilyard, Binns, and D.J. Woods. The ground game is even working as of late with Collaros behind center running a bit as well as Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey getting big plays. Cincinnati has faced a much stronger schedule thus far in terms of offenses and defenses that they have faced. Cincinnati's opponents average total defense ranked 58th in the nation compared to West Virginia's 72nd. Cincinnati's opponents average total offense ranked 63rd compared to West Virginia's 79.5th. I mean no matter how you spin in Cincinnati has the better team and the only weakness for Cinci all year long has been the rushing defense.

However, they've only been burnt when they were up big and teams decided still to run so the defense was not playing the run. Cincinnati should be able to stack the box against Devine regardless and he's coming off an ankle injury which is the worst for RB's so if he's a big ? on Friday I mean he's playing, but who knows what you get from him and that's the key to West Virginia keeping this one close. I mean even their head coach doesn't know how they'll win this game stating, "Cincinnati is powerful, I don't know what we are going to do," -Bill Stewart.

Cincinnati also has plenty of revenge and motivation as they want to continue to be undefeated and move up in the polls along with the fact that they have never won at home against West Virginia. They did win last year in OT 26-23 in West Virginia, but the revenge and the point to prove at home on a Friday night. Finally common opponents a small piece of the puzzle in handicapping and changes all the time. Louisville, South Florida, and Uconn. Each one of these games was played at the same place Louisville and Uconn both traveled to Cincinnati and WV, while Cinn and WV visited South Florida. Cincinnati went 3-0 and WV wen 2-1 losing to South Florida, but against Louisville they were outgained by 28 yards while Cinn was +193 yards. Even against Uconn Cinn was +249 while WV was -114. Against South Florida Cinn was +25 while WV again was -98. That just proves the major difference between these two teams.

Wait Fred West Virginia is 53-3 when winning the turnover battle over the last seven years. Hmmm nice try, Cincinnati never turns the ball over they have yet to lose a fumble and have just 4 interceptions and they are 3rd in the nation in turnover margin.

[b]Take 49ers -2.5 3-Dime POD buy 1/2 money -120[/b]
Bottom line the Niners need this game and they have the home field advantage. The Bears have not played well at all as of late as Matt Forte continues to struggle running the ball and during that time Jay Cutler has gone pick happy throwing 7 interceptions over the last 4 games. The Niners are coming off 4 straight games and all 4 were of quality besides maybe the Titans, but I disagree on that one as this was the 13-3 team that is acting like it finally. They also lost by just 4 at the Colts and home to the Falcons and Texans all probable playoff teams except the Titans. Bears gave up 514 rushing yards in the last 3 games look for Frank Gore to get it going here tonight which will allow for Alex Smith to operate where he is most comfortable out of the play action going over the top to Vernon Davis. Bears are 28th in pass TD's allowed and are the 13th worst against TE allowing 6 TD's this year which should allow Davis to break free for one atleast. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS vs. the Bears at home and the number has started to rise from opening at -2.5 to 3.5 and 4's in some places.

Take Rutgers -2 @ -110 (4.5 Dime POD)1-5 scale
I love Rutgers here tonight, and I have a lot of respect for their head coach and how he progresses as the season goes along. The story here to me is Rutgers ability to force turnovers and their ability not to turn the ball over. Last year they forced South Florida to throw three picks and three fumbles in a 49-16 victory. South Florida comes surging in after a Friday night victory over West Virginia. Make no mistake we had a POD selection on that game and I have a lot of respect for South Florida, but just not on the road with their freshmen QB B.J. Daniels he will have his hands filled with different blitz schemes and a 100 yard running game will not be there for the taking as the Scarlet Knights are very buttoned up on defense and ranked 26th against the run. The pressure Daniels will see from George Johnson, Silvestro, and Freeny and the occasion of D'Imperio will be too much and they will force their turnovers. After all Rutgers leads the nation in turnover margin they have forced 25 and they have given up just 7.

Now Rutgers has a freshmen of their own in Savage. He tends to hold onto the ball too long, but he still does not throw the interception he'll take the sack which I won't be surprised to see here tonight. But I'd rather have him take the sack then throw the interception and that takes serious maturity as a QB to do. That is why they are 2nd in the Big East in sacks allowed. Despite having a very big offensive line and one of the best on their line they give up sacks because Savage would rather take the sack then throw the interception. However, like in years past this offense is coming together the 87th rank should not fool you at all. They are stacked at WR and RB. I think they can get the running game going against South Florida and to do so they have 3 guys who have different styles in 235 lb bruise Joe Martinek to run up the middle along with Jourdan Brooks and electrifying freshmen De'Antwan Williams on the outside. Let's talk receivers they have depth and guys to stretch the field in Tim Brown the 5'8 150 lb receiver can not be stopped by South Florida. He's small but one of the fastest guys in the country and he's become Savage's favorite target along with stand out freshmen Sanu. Also coming along is a freshmen from my home town and played in my flag football league last year Mark Harrison. Harrison is a big guy with good speed 6'3 and 230 he's a physical guy and a nice compliment to Sanu. Harrison caught his first TD a week ago for 20 yards. Bottom line they have compliments on offense everything you want to see. A big offensive line, a QB who is accurate and tall and does not make mistakes, a fast receiver to stretch the field and open up the running game, a tall possession receiver in Sanu, and a solid running game with several backs who have different unique abilities.

South Florida has always struggled on the road in the North East and tonight will be the same with Daniels intimidated by the pass rush in colder conditions than he's used to.

Take Rutgers -2 @ -110 (4.5 Dime POD)1-5 scale
I love Rutgers here tonight, and I have a lot of respect for their head coach and how he progresses as the season goes along. The story here to me is Rutgers ability to force turnovers and their ability not to turn the ball over. Last year they forced South Florida to throw three picks and three fumbles in a 49-16 victory. South Florida comes surging in after a Friday night victory over West Virginia. Make no mistake we had a POD selection on that game and I have a lot of respect for South Florida, but just not on the road with their freshmen QB B.J. Daniels he will have his hands filled with different blitz schemes and a 100 yard running game will not be there for the taking as the Scarlet Knights are very buttoned up on defense and ranked 26th against the run. The pressure Daniels will see from George Johnson, Silvestro, and Freeny and the occasion of D'Imperio will be too much and they will force their turnovers. After all Rutgers leads the nation in turnover margin they have forced 25 and they have given up just 7.

Now Rutgers has a freshmen of their own in Savage. He tends to hold onto the ball too long, but he still does not throw the interception he'll take the sack which I won't be surprised to see here tonight. But I'd rather have him take the sack then throw the interception and that takes serious maturity as a QB to do. That is why they are 2nd in the Big East in sacks allowed. Despite having a very big offensive line and one of the best on their line they give up sacks because Savage would rather take the sack then throw the interception. However, like in years past this offense is coming together the 87th rank should not fool you at all. They are stacked at WR and RB. I think they can get the running game going against South Florida and to do so they have 3 guys who have different styles in 235 lb bruise Joe Martinek to run up the middle along with Jourdan Brooks and electrifying freshmen De'Antwan Williams on the outside. Let's talk receivers they have depth and guys to stretch the field in Tim Brown the 5'8 150 lb receiver can not be stopped by South Florida. He's small but one of the fastest guys in the country and he's become Savage's favorite target along with stand out freshmen Sanu. Also coming along is a freshmen from my home town and played in my flag football league last year Mark Harrison. Harrison is a big guy with good speed 6'3 and 230 he's a physical guy and a nice compliment to Sanu. Harrison caught his first TD a week ago for 20 yards. Bottom line they have compliments on offense everything you want to see. A big offensive line, a QB who is accurate and tall and does not make mistakes, a fast receiver to stretch the field and open up the running game, a tall possession receiver in Sanu, and a solid running game with several backs who have different unique abilities.

South Florida has always struggled on the road in the North East and tonight will be the same with Daniels intimidated by the pass rush in colder conditions than he's used to.

Take Steelers -2 4-Dime POD
For as bad as I have been in NFL I have been great in NCAAF, but that all does not matter with the losers in NFL. I am dedicated to turning this around the 2nd half of the year and will do so starting tonight by making some major tweaks. Normally I'd be on the Broncos here, and it's based off line movement as the public is on the Steelers but the line moves the other way. However, looking at this match up more there is just no way I can take the Broncos who finally gave up some 2nd half points to the Ravens last week.

Now the Ravens are similar to the Steelers in more ways than one. Like the Ravens last week the Steelers are coming off the bye. LIke the Ravens the Steelers have a shut down defense only the Steelers possess the #1 rush defense and overall are better. Like the Ravens the Steelers have always been a run first team, but are doing it through the air this year. While the Ravens have a slightly better running game the Steelers are starting to look better over the last three weeks with 4.3 yards per carry. Now the ability to stop the run against the Broncos is the key and sets up a more favorable match up for a team if they can do so.

Now I'm going to give you three reasons why the Steelers are better than the Broncos along with the fact that home field won't be as much of an advantage tonight because the Steelers are in fact coming off a bye giving them more time to prepare. Making the home field vs. team off bye a wash.

Three reasons:
Both teams played at home vs. the Browns. Steelers outgained CLE by 346 yards, while Denver outgained them by 249. +97 yard advantage to Steelers.

Both teams played at the Bengals. Steelers outgained them by 100 yards while Denver was outgained by 5 yards. +105 yard advantage to Steelers.

Denver @ Chargers out gained the Chargers by 17 yards, but the Steelers at home outgained them by 246 yards. That's a +229 yard advantage to Steelers. Certainly proves that the Steelers are the better team to me defensively because they were able to stop San Diego while Denver just could not and struggled vs. the pass.

Denver is a great defense and should be able to get to Big Ben a bunch tonight, but it's the plays that Big Ben make with his feet to get outside the pocket and get the ball to his receivers that win this game. If you throw out the running game because both defenses have top 5 run stopping units the passing game is where the game gets decided for me. Now Big Ben although he takes a lot of sacks he does not turn the ball over via fumble something the Broncos have feasted on this year. This is good news for the Steelers as Big Ben will likely break a few sacks and get the ball away to one of the receivers. Pitt on the other hand plays better pass defense than indicated as they lost Troy Polamoulou's for quite some time and now he'll be back for his 2nd game and off a bye to really come into play. The dink and dunk passing won't work against the Steelers and Orton is going to have to take some shots.

Overall I'll take Big Ben over Kyle Orton who maybe for the first time looks human and makes some big time mistakes. Baltimore proved that it was possible to score on the Broncos in the 2nd half and should give the Steelers confidence to put this team away late.

I'm going with the Redskins here as the POD. Redskins are coming off the bye this week, and I feel very confident that their offense that is now under Sherm Lewis has made a few strides in the off time. It had looked better throughout their game before the bye and now they have had the extra time to prepare against an Atlanta team that does not have the defense that Philly possesses. Atlanta may win the game, but the fact that we are getting 9 or 10 points to play with makes me feel good considering Washington's Defense is ranked 4th in total yards this season. They are also giving up an average 17.6 pts ranked 5th. I expect them to be right in line for an upset and could win the game outright.