Steelers +110 5.5% NFL POD

Iowa State +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Iowa State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a dog, and they are a significant step up in competition for West Virginia.  West Virginia is not #6 ranked team just like LSU was not #5 going on the road as a favorite a week ago and losing at Florida.  This is the Big 12 version of that with Iowa State playing very well despite injuries at QB position Iowa State managed to upset Oklahoma State last week on the road.  They also played Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa to 10 pints or less.

Iowa State inserted mobile QB Brock Purdy and against a good defense in Oklahoma State he put up 400+ yards and 5 TD”s, 4 through the air.  Iowa State’s offense is very under rated in my opinion as they rank 83rd in yards per play, but have faced a tough schedule facing defenses ranked on average #36 in yards per play allowed.  Here they face another good defense in West Virginia #25, but West Virginia has not played faced a top 35 team yet.

West Virginia’s offense has dominated behind Will Grier, but look at the defenses they have faced.  On average ranking 102nd yards per play allowed, 92nd average in QB rating defense, and on average they have faced a rushing defense ranking 99.5.  The rushing defense is what really is a red flag, because it appears West Virginia is completely one dimensional on offense and that won’t win on the road.  They rank 73rd in yards per carry and they faced on average a 99.5 ranked defense. Here they face Iowa State’s 13th ranked rushing defense. What does that mean?

Unless West Virginia throws early they are going to set themselves up on third and longs and Iowa State ranks 32nd in sack %.  They can put pressure on the QB and force mistakes. West Virginia is 99th in TO Margin, and Grier turned the ball over 3 times inside the 30.  Iowa State will be fine giving up the yards to West Virginia, but are stingy in the red zone allowing just 50% TD percentage. Last year they gave up a ton of yards, but held West Virginia to 20 points.  This is a night game in Ames with a great home crowd looking for an upset before going into their bye.

Bills +5 5.5% NFL POD

Texas +7.5 -1.15 4.5 NCAAF POD

NY Giants +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

South Carolina +1 5.5% NCAAF POD

Kentucky is a hot pick right now and everyone is picking them over South Carolina this week.  I am high on Kentucky, and I even bet them at Florida, but I think this is a different match-up.  This is the first time Kentucky is in the AP Top 25 in 11 years and they are facing an unranked team yet they are only a 1 point favorite?  They have actually dominated South Carolina over the last 4 years winning 4 straight, but they are only a 1 point favorite? Kentucky is actually just 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and South Carolina has covered their last 8 road games.

This is a different South Carolina that Kentucky has to go against this week compared to Florida and Miss State who they took down as double digit dogs.  Florida and Miss State can not pass the ball and are one dimensional on offense. South Carolina with Jake Bentley and their star receivers can move the ball through the air which should open up some running lanes.  The strength of this Kentucky team is in the front 7, and South Carolina’s offensive line has been very good protecting the QB ranking 9th in sack % allowed.

South Carolina is a balanced offense and although they rank similarly in yards per play at #20 to Miss State and Florida who ranked 18th and 22nd the strength of schedule South Carolina has faced to get there is totally different.  Miss State ranks 18th, but faced YPP defenses of 100th, 122 and an FCS foe. Florida ranks 22nd but faced 126, 95 and an FCS foe. South Carolina ranks 20th, can pass the ball, and played 116th, 23rd, and 41st ranked defenses.

South Carolina is also led by a defensive minded coach.  They held Benny Snell to 103 rushing yards on 32 carries which is pretty damn good in last year’s game.  South Carolina will force Terry Wilson at QB to beat them and so far he has 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. This is simply a bad matchup for Kentucky.

Steelers pk 4.4% play 

Redskins +135 5.5% NFL POD

UNLV +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

There is some value here with UNLV, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog, and they continue to improve under Tony Sanchez and are poised to get back to a bowl game this year.  UNLV is a dominant running team and chooses to do so 67% of the time. This trends well in road games as a dog, and UNLV should be able to get the running game going in this game, because Arkansas State has had trouble stopping the run this year.  UNLV is also a very diciplined team with just 3.7 penalties per game compared to Arkansas State who is averaging 11 penalties per game. UNLV was very impressive at USC rushing for over 300 yards in their first game and held USC to only 1 passing TD.

Arkansas State has Justin Hansen at QB, but UNLV has already proven they can stop a talented QB or hold them in check.  I see a bend but don’t break defense here for UNLV with strengths in the red zone. UNLV’s Armani Rogers might just be better than Hansen.  When we look at Arkansas State they have dominated the Sun Belt - 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons, but outside the Sun Belt they are just 4-10 ATS.  The Mountain West (UNLV’s conference) is 18-12 vs. the Sun Belt since 2010 +8.7 points per game. Boise State already took down Troy this season by 36 points.

Titans +3 5.5% NFL POD

Utah +5 4.4% NCAAF POD @ 10pm et

I like the Utes to pull the upset here.  Utah has been a tough out for Washington in their last 3 matchups.  Utah won by 11, they lost by 7 on a last minute kick return TD, they lost by 3 last year as they gave up 10 points in the final minute. 

Utah to me has the better QB in this one in Tyler Huntley who threw for 293 passing yards at Washington last year 2 TD’s and 1 INT.  Jake Browning has really struggled on the road in his career against good defenses, and Utah should be able to stop the run.  They held Washington to 124 yards on the ground on the road last year, and just got done holding run heavy Northern Illinois to 117 and under 3 yards per carry.

Utah has an excellent home field advantage and a very good special teams.  I expect a close game with Utah being in position to win the game outright.

Bengals +121 5.5% POD

Nevada + 8.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I think Nevada is a live dog this week as Vanderbilt is off a misleading 35-7 final over Middle Tennessee their instate rival with Notre Dame on deck.  Nevada has a Sr. QB in Ty Gangi who can really be a weapon in the air raid offense that Nevada runs and Vanderbilt rarely sees. Vanderbilt actually allowed MIddle Tenn twice as many yards in the first half, but held onto a 14-7 halftime lead.  Overall MIddle Tennessee had 7 trips into VAnderbilt territory and came away with an amazing 0 points. Don’t expect Nevada to fall into the same situation.

Vanderbilt should be down this year with just 5 returning on defense and 12 overall.  Nevada held their own in a meaningful game a year ago at Northwestern losing 21-30 and I expect they will be in this game with a chance to win it in the end.

Miami Ohio +120 5.5% NCAAF POD

I don’t really understand why Miami is a home dog here when they are on the same level as Marshall.  I think the MAC is pretty even to C-USA as well and this was the season opener last year where Miami Ohio actually played better but lost the game.  The game was at Marshall and Miami Ohio was a small road favorite and outgained Marshall 429 - 267, but lost because of 2 kick return TD’s and a 72 yard interception returned for a TD.  Luckily we had Miami Ohio in a teaser and still covered, but it was a warning sign to a very unlucky season for Miami Ohio that I believe they are motivated to turn around in 2018.

Miami Ohio had 4 losses by 5 points or less, they lost their QB for 3 games in Gus Ragland (returning), 2 OL starters.  This all after they beame the first team in college football history to start 0-6 and finish 6-0 in 2016 behind Ragland who had a 17 TD to 1 INT Ratio.  This is obviously a game they want to make a statement about what kind of team they will be in 2018. They have senior leadership all over the field who have been starting since 2016 and were part of that turn around.

Marshall here returns 18 starters, but they are getting enough credit here in the line.  I really don’t like this team as a road favorite under Doc HOlliday as they are better an an underdog role.  Under Holliday they have gone 8-14-1 ATS as a road favorite. This was a winning team ATS last year so we naturally want to fade them the following year despite the 18 returning starters they do not return their starting QB.  They get a grad transfer from Wagner who is hyped to have NFL talent, but going up against a very underrated Miami Ohio defense I think the offense will struggle as they did a year ago.

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Eagles +3.5 -11.5 5.5% POD

Jaguars +7 4.4% NFL POD

Eagles +3 5.5% NFL POD

Georgia +4 5.5% POD

I give a small edge in coaching to Alabama with Nick Saban having an 11-0 record 9-2 ATS vs. former assistants, but note that he was on average a 17 point favorite in those games.  No coach ever spent more than 5 years with Saban while Kirby Smart spent the last 8 years up until 2015.  Georgia's offensive coordinator Jim Chaney I have over Jeremy Pruitt who takes over Tennessee after this game.  Chaney spent years with NFL teams and in the SEC, but more importantly brought his offensive line coach Sam Pittman.  Pittman knows how to run the ball and get his line to block.  Just ask Arkansas and Brett Bielema how they did after Pittman left.

Special Teams is about even as both teams have special kickers and neither team has a punt or kick return for a TD.  Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship hit a 55 yarder before the half which changed momentum int he game against Oklahoma.  They also blocked a kick to win the game, but Alabama has been known to win games with special teams in this type of game.

Georgia's offense vs. Alabama's defense is a big key.  Alabama got healthy, but lost another linebacker in their game against Clemson.  Alabama has not been as dominant vs. good rushing teams as they have in the past shutting down just 1 of the 5 top 45 rushing offenses they faced.  On average allowing 139 yards per game in those 5 games and 7 TD's.  Meanwhile Georgia's rushing attack has faced 6 top 45 run defenses and only 1 team in a road game at Auburn shut them down, but their coaching staff made adjustments and they rushed for over 200 in the SEC Championship.

Georgia's Jake Fromm is the key here as they can make all the throws that Jarret Stidham did when Auburn beat Alabama with their balance attack.  For a true freshman he's been extremely impressive and even getting the confidence of coaches to change the play at the line of scrimmage.  If you want to beat Alabama you better have a QB and Georgia certainly does.  You can get more info on the Georgia offense vs. Alabama defense in this week's podcast where I gave Georgia in overall slight advantage.

Alabama's offense vs. Georgia's defense is another advantage in my opinion for Georgia.  On paper Georgia ranked 32nd in stopping the run, but they faced 7 teams in the top 25 in rushing offense.  They faced some weird ones too with Georgia Tech's triple option, Oklahoma's #1 offense and RPO spread offense, along with facing Auburn's offense twice.  They shut down 4 of the 8 rushing offenses in the top 45 that they faced.  Their run defense is much better than it looked a week ago and a big reason why we have them as dogs.  Alabama doesn't have a 1,000 yard rusher this year.  Meanwhile they still ranked #10 in rushing offense from a ypc perspective and #15 in QB Rating.  

We saw Clemson really shut down Alabama's offense and we saw Auburn do the same thing in the Iron Bowl.  This Georgia defense is really similar in a lot of ways and can do the same thing.  Alabama's Jalen Hurts has faced a weaker schedule having faced on average a 66.8 run defense.  Georgia has the #6 pass defense to go along with that, and we have seen Hurts struggle to get much going.  He's faced 6 top 50 passing defenses.  He eclipsed 200 yards 1x, and was held under 121 passing yards 3 times.  He ranked 96th in sack % because he'd rather take a sack than throw an interception.  I see Georgia getting after him here they held Brandon Wimbush a mobile QB from Notre Dame to 1 yard on 16 carries.

Georgia may not have as impressive numbers here or there, but they have gotten better as the season progressed especially on offense.  They are coming off a game where they made a major come back, and have a ton of confidence in offense and now they get to face a one dimensional offense.  Alabama certainly has the receivers, but Georgia is going to make Hurts beat them and his numbers despite not turning the ball over against the top 50 passing defenses he's faced have not been impressive.  Either I think this game comes down to a field goal these two teams really are even, but Georgia is the more complete team with balance on offense and they have faced a tougher schedule. 

TITANS +8 5.5% POD

Oklahoma +125 5.5% POD

The SEC has not played well in bowl games thus far going 1-3 while the Big 12 as I mentioned might just be the best conference this year.  They have gone 5-2 in bowl games.  The SEC is still getting too much credit for being the SEC, and there is a thought out there that Oklahoma just doesn't play defense which just is not true.  Oklahoma went on the road and faced Ohio State who dominated them a year ago and held that powerful rushing attack to 167 yards.  That was less than Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin who all gave up over 200 yards to Ohio State.  In this game I would not be shocked to see Oklahoma do a good job against the run.  They are simply capable and the game plan will be to force Georgia into third and longs and force Jake Fromm the freshman to beat them.

That's another big reason why I like Oklahoma here to win this game.  They are an experienced group of guys with a senior QB that won't let his team lose.  They are 4-0 SU & ATS vs. SEC teams the last two years beating Alabama and Auburn recently.  This group has been in the playoff and felt the pain of losing to Clemson.  Georgia, while they are talented are not as talented in the pass rush as the 2015 Clemson team that beat them.  Georgia is 85th in adjusted sack rate while Clemson was 13th in 2015.  This Oklahoma offensive line is also much better and if you can go on the road and defeat an Ohio State defensive line and do it in dominating fashion than I am sold.  Oklahoma was +140 yards in that game against Ohio State the 26th ranked adjusted sack rate team.  Oklahoma also beat Oklahoma State on the road and beat TCU twice all three of these teams were in the college football playoff mix and won their bowl games.  Meanwhile Georgia's biggest win against Notre Dame on the road by only 1 point.  Notre Dame struggled and got beat big in each of their step up games with Miami, and Stanford were lucky to beat Michigan State and USC (banged up).

Oklahoma faced 9 bowl teams and were +199 yards per game.  Georgia's defense is great, but they rarely faced an opponent that could move the ball running and throwing like they do here.  The closest match-up would probably be Auburn and when Auburn was healthy they put up 40 points on this Georgia defense.  Auburn was missing their most valuable player in the Championship game in Kerryon Johnson who was clearly not 100%.  This defense also gave up 28 points to Missouri at home.  Missouri is a nice offense with a little balance and a decent QB, but we saw Missouri struggle offensively against Texas in the bowl game, and Auburn in their own building.  Georgia in my opinion really has not been tested defensively like they will be in this game.

Panthers +4 5.5% POD

Wake Forest -3 5.5% POD

This game is being played at BOA in Charlotte which gives Wake Forest a home field advantage.  I also think there is a lot of value here with Wake Forest who had better results and faced a tougher schedule.  On average they ranked #41.2 facing an average opponent ranking #56.1, while Texas A&m ranked #71 facing an average opponent ranking #59.7.  A&M went 1-4 against 5 bowl teams while Wake Forest went 4-5 against 9 bowl teams.  The ACC also has gone 2-1 SU & ATS in bowl play so far compared to a weak showing for the SEC at 0-1 with Missouri losing to Big 12 Texas as favorites.  Even dating back to last year it has been evident that the ACC is better than the SEC.

Another edge besides strength of schedule is the fact that Texas A&M has an inexperienced guy calling the shots in Jeff Banks.  Banks is the special teams coach as Kevin Sumlin was let go and Jimbo Fisher took over.  This has not worked out well thus far in bowl games.  Banks special teams unit was a strength of this team ranking #40, but I think that has everything to do with the talents of Christian Kirk.  For Wake Forest, Dave Clawson has won everywhere he's gone.  He came in and fixed the biggest issue for Wake Forest was their size on the offensive line and has turned this offense around starting in 2015 when he started 4 freshman on the OL.  This year this year they allowed 19 fewer sacks and averaged a yard more per carry and QB John Wolford also saw the benefit as he tossed 25 TD's and 6 INT's for the #12 ranked QB rating in the nation.  That rating is legit too as Wake Forest faced off against a ton of top passing defenses with an average rank of #43.1.

Wake Forest goes up against Texas A&M's #83 pass defense.  Wake Forest faced three teams not in the top 50 in pass defense and they scored 43.3 points per game.  A&M's pass defense is a bit misleading I'll admit at #83 hailing from the tough SEC, but the SEC was down this year.  A&M faced 5 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they went 1-4.  They beat an Ole Miss team that was starting a backup QB after Shea Patterson was lost for the season.  In those 4 games they allowed 36.6 points per game.  A&M has a nice pass rush, but Wake Forest was only sacked 17 times on the year.

A&M's offense was hit or miss this year, and they'll struggle in my opinion facing the #25 passing defense.  Wake Forest plays an aggressive style and even their run defense is better than the stats state as they faced an average rushing rank of #40.4.  A&M ranks 83rd in rushing ypc after facing an average rushing defense 68.2, again the SEC is over rated!  A&M generally took care of the ball with only 16 TO's and have a +4 margin, but they had 8 TO's in 3 games which were the only 3 times they faced a top 25 pass defense which Wake Forest is.  Wake Forest however +7 in TO margin only turned it over 11 times and 5 of those came in games against top 30 pass defenses.  They only turned the ball over 1 time in road games at Clemson and Notre Dame which is extremely impressive. 

Michigan State -1.5 5.5% POD

This Michigan State team has a huge chip on their shoulder as they feel slighted for not being picked for the New Year's Day Outback Bowl.  instead their rival who they beat, Michigan was chosen.  I think they will give it their best to win and dominate this game and I think they can over a Washington team that has plenty of holes.

First of all we need to bring up Washington State's game last year against  Minnesota team that had 10 guys suspended or more yet they were unable to win losing 12-17.  The previous two years they played in 3 point games against Rutgers so Washington has struggled in the Leach era against the Big Ten.  Leach is actually only 4-8 ATS in bowl games and goes up against Dantonio who is a very good coach and will have his team ready for this game.

Aside from the motivation I like the match-up here for Michigan State who rank #10 in pass defense and won't have to worry much about a rushing offense as Washington State ranks 129th in the nation in rushing offense.  Luke Falk, QB at Washington State will have his hands full here against a press man to man coverage.  He'll also be missing his top 2 WR for this game.

For MIchigan State's offense it's all about QB Brian Lewerke.  I think Lewerke was a bit banged up at the end of the year, but he is a guy who threw for over 885 yards in two games against very good defenses in Northwestern #26th in YPP allowed and Penn State 22nd in YPP allowed.  He really only had one bad game against Ohio State on the road in a very bad spot.  I would not be surprised to see Michigan State come out throwing against Washington State who will be without their best defensive player in Hercules Maat'fa for the first half for a suspension.  They can then use their size late to wear down Washington State's smaller defensive front.  Washington State #58 in rushing ypc defense.  Michigan State's 3 losses came against very good run defenses ranking #19 on average.  When they can run the ball they typically win and Washington showed it in the Apple Cup that Washington State struggles against a well coached physical style opponent.

There are other factors I like here as Washington State has the #115 special teams and have turned the ball over 29 times this season.  I thought Washington State's defense carried them this year and should keep this game close, but Falk will have some mistakes and they will continue to struggle in these type of match-ups. 

Purdue +142 5.5% POD

Coaching edge to Jeff Brohm here as Rich Rodriguez has a 2-8 ATS bowl record, but for some reason Arizona is favored probably because of Khalil Tate.  This offense reminds me of the offenses that Rodriguez had at Michigan with Denard Robinson which you can easily scheme for.  If you can stop the run you should win the game and perhaps even dominate.  The other thing to consider here is the fact that teams that rely heavily on a running QB like Arizona really struggle the more film that's available.  Look at what Louisville did down the stretch last year and then this year.

Speaking of Louisville, Purdue held them in check in their loss to open the season.  Lamar Jackson managed his team to only 146 yards.  Louisville has the #1 ranked rushing attack.  Overall Purdue ranks #26 vs. the run.  Arizona's wins have come against bad rushing defenses ranking on average 97.3.  While their 5 losses have come against an average run defense ranking #55.  They are also 0-5 when held under 250 yards rushing.  Purdue gave up 250+ rushing only once this season and it came against Wisconsin on the road and they still held Wisconsin to only 17 points.  Purdue is also solid ranking 46th in QB rating defense and their defense has very good veteran presence.  We also saw this team go on the road and face #7 YPP Offense in Missouri and beat them 35-3.

I've explained a bit how Purdue can shut down Arizona's offense, and I feel their offense will be able to put up points on Arizona's defense.  Jeff Brohm after all is an offensive minded coach, and with extra time to prepare I against a defense that is not very good against the pass or run and is under sized.  Purdue also wins games when their offense is involved.  I was impressed with their road win at Iowa down the stretch even though I called for it.  In their wins they average 4.79 ypc compared to 3.96 in losses, and their QB rating is 153 vs. 106.  Here they go up against Arizona's #86 yards per play defense.  That comes against a schedule where they faced an average offense ranking 70.1.  They ranked 81st vs. the run 87th vs. the pass, and are banged up in the front 7.  This is a game I see Purdue offense being able to move the ball in the air and on the ground.  Arizona's defense really relied on takeaways.  Purdue had just 16 on the season and 10 of those came in the first 5 games with only 6 over their last 7 games.  Arizona also turned the ball over 20 times and are more turnover prone.

49ers +4.5 5.5% POD

Central Michigan +3.5 5.5% POD

This game is at elevation in Idaho which favors Wyoming who is used to playing in it, but in a match-up like this where the defenses should dominate I don't anticipate elevation playing too big of a factor, but we could have snow. The winds won't be too crazy so I don't anticipate the offenses being impacted too much. When we look at Wyoming they are getting too much credit here being favored. Josh Allen, the QB many NFL teams are interested in will be playing and I think that has a lot to do with the 3-3.5 point move, but I don't' agree with it. If you are a top 5 NFL QB draft pick you make the players around you better. Allen really has not done that, and part of it is how bad his offensive line has been ranking 124th in adjusted line yards. He's gotten no help from the running game either ranking 121st in ypc, while his QB rating is good for 104th. Central Michigan on the other hand has been in this role all year long. Favored in just 4 games they were able to win 8 and one could argue they were the best team out of the MAC. CMU has beaten up on poor offenses. Their 8 wins have come against an average offensive opponent ranking 109th in YPP and again Wyoming comes into this game ranking 124th so it fits what they have done all year. Their 4 losses have come against an average offense ranking 45.3 and as I mentioned that just isn't Wyoming. It's not as if Wyoming's offense has struggled because of strength of schedule. Their offense has faced an average defense ranking 75.4. Their wins have come against the bad defenses with an average rank of 103rd while their losses have come against an average defense ranking 42.2. Well, Central Michigan ranks 22nd in yards per play defense. When looking at Wyoming we know they have a very good defense. Ranking 12th in yards per play allowed while facing an average offense ranking 75.6. I looked deeper at what type of teams they struggled against. It was against teams with good QB play. Shane Morris from CMU is a good QB as the Chippewas ranked 54th in QB rating against an average opponent of 66.2 on defense which is a strong schedule. Wyoming against top 60 passing offenses went 1-4, and their 1 win came against a team that was not good defensively ranking 107th in yards per play defense. Central Michigan ranks 22nd. Meanwhile Central Michigan only went 2-3 against top 60 passing defenses. However their 3 losses came against teams who could move the ball ranking 54th, 20th, and 6th in yards per play, Wyoming ranks 124th. This recent line move offers tremendous value. I don't often like taking a team after finishing the season strong heading into a bowl with the long time off they lose their momentum. However, I like what I have seen many times form Central Michigan. I think they are the better team, and I could argue they faced a stronger schedule. They have won in situations against similar Wyoming teams more often than Wyoming has won against Central Michigan teams.

FIU +7 4.4% PLAY  

This game takes place in St. Petersburg, FL which is much closer for the FIU athletes. This game will be in a dome, and I think that favor FIU's offense here. I also like the coaching edge with Butch Davis 5-2 in bowl games, with Geoff Collins coaching in his first. I looked in depth at what both teams can do on the line of scrimmage and running the ball. FIU wants to run the ball and they rank 56th in yards per carry. They'll be going up against a Temple defense that has not been good against the run ranking 83rd, but some of that has to do with strength of schedule as they have faced an average opponent rush defense ranking 45th. However, FIU does have balance with the QB so it's not like Temple can sell out to stop the run. FIU faced 4 TOP 50 rushing defenses and they beat 2 of them. Looking at Temples ability to run the ball and it gets worse for Temple who ranks 88th in ypc, and that was against an average opponent run defense ranking 78th. They lost to 3 teams who did not rank in the top 70 in run defense much like FIU who comes in ranking 93rd, but had a tough schedule facing an average opponent offense ranking 56th. FIU went 5-1 against teams ranking 75th or worse against the run. Overall I give the edge running the ball in this game to FIU and it makes sense when we compare the offensive lines in this game. Temple ranks 118th in adjusted line yards, while FIU ranks 56th. Let's look at the passing attacks. As you may know Temple got a ton of credit down the stretch as they switched their QB to Frank Nutile and he did play better than Logan Marchi, but still turned the ball over 7 times. Marchi also went against passing defense ranked 103, 120, 111, 45 (loss), and 127. So I would believe most QB's could put up decent and probably better numbers than he did in those 5 games. Overall Temples passing offense still on the season ranked 82nd in QB rating and they faced an average opponent ranking 81st in QB rating defense. Not really impressed with Temples' offense at all. FIU meanwhile has a senior QB in Alex McGough who had a very good year and this offense had a QB rating ranked #29 in the nation and faced a tougher schedule facing opponent defenses ranking #65. Temple does have a clear edge in pass defense, but they only rank #65 and against teams ranked in the top 50 passing the ball they actually went 2-4 on the season. FIU, very bad against the pass, but they did have a tough schedule with an average opponent ranking #67. Temple may be able to move the ball in the air in this one, but I would expect FIU to force some turnovers. Slight edge to FIU here as well. I remind you that FIU is a dog. Mainly because of Temple's success down the stretch and their alleged strength of schedule. However, they turn the ball over far too much to be laying 7 points in FIU's home state. They have no edge in special teams ranking #22 to FIU's #21. They don't have a coaching edge, and their offense which would have to score a lot of points to cover this spread really is not good at throwing or running the ball. FIU's defense in my opinion is a bit under rated ranking #92 in yards per play, but an average opponent rank of #67. When facing an opponent offense ranking 60th or worse they went 6-1.

Browns +7 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +100 4.5% NFL POD

Middle Tennessee +3.5 5.5% POD

Since 2014, Conference USA is 15-5 against the Sun Belt and 4-2 this year.  Their 2 losses came with their 2 worst teams Charlotte & UTEP facing two bowl teams from the Sun Belt.  The 4 wins all by a TD or more.  Middle Tennessee is a dog, because they only won 6 games, and Arkansas State is that sexy team with the sexy QB in Justice Hansen.  However, the Blue Raiders were picked to win C-USA by many and in game 2 they went into Syracuse and won.  The same place Clemson lost on the road later in the season.  Also worth noting is Middle Tennessee played 6 bowl teams with 3 power 5 opponents.  Arkansas State only had 2 opponents that are in bowls and played FCS and 1 power 5 opponent being Nebraska who did not get to a bowl game. 

Middle Tennessee lost their QB in after week 2 and the season really turned for the worse.  They were already without their starting RB, Terrelle West to start the year.  Both are healthy for the bowl game and when Stockstill is playing this offense ranks 36 points per game and without just 19.5.  This is a very balanced offense with West back healthy he had 170 rushing yards in their last game and they have an extra week to prepare for this game vs. what Arkansas State has. 

Before we get to Middle Tennessee State's defense let's take a look at Arkansas State.  This offense was amazing this year and Justice Hansen who threw for 3,630 yards 34 TD's and 15 interceptions.  A closer look though reveals the defenses they have faced have been trash.  An average opponent ranking 93.5 in yards per play allowed.  Hansen has gone up against some of the worst passing defenses in the nation.  8 out of his 10 opponents were 91st or worse in pass defense.  He faced Troy 65th, and lost and beat New Mexico State who ranked 52nd.  MTSU faced 6 passing offenses in the top 60.

MTSU ranked 20th in yards per play allowed with their defense really picking things up this year.  In years past it was really their weakness that kept them from bowl wins.  This year they had no choice but to play defense with Stockstill gone for most of the season.  Middle Tennessee is also 12th in yards per completion which could cause some issues for Arkansas State's passing game while the run defense has been solid all year allowing just 5.61 yards per carry.

Arkansas State's defense probably has seen one offense better and that was SMU who put 44 points up on them.  There are a lot of ways MTSU can win this game.  Arkansas State has no business being a favorite when they have turned the ball over 18 times in 6 road games this year.  They are also averaging nearly 2 more penalties per game than Middle Tennessee ranking 125th in the nation.  The one big strength their defense has that I can not deny is Ja'von Rolland-Jones who has 13 sacks in 11 games.  However, MTSU typically under Stockstill gets rid of the ball fast he took just 14 sacks a year ago.  This year the offensive line ranks 17th in sack rate on passing downs.  I think Middle Tennessee comes into this game with a bit of a chip on their shoulder having not won a bowl game since 2009.  Their leader Stockstill can lead them to a bowl game now that he's back and that's exactly what I'll predict. 

Eagles +100 5.5% NFL POD

Browns +14 5.5% POD

Memphis +7.5 5.5% POD / Memphis +250 1%

We have two very similar teams meeting again in Florida for the AAC Championship game.  These two met back in week 3 and it was a UCF win 40-13.  Central Florida opened as a 2.5 point favorite in that game and climbed to 5.5 at close.  We really did not know much about that team, and Memphis did not either.  Fast Forward and neither of these teams have lost a game since and it's an interesting rematch between the two, but we are getting 4.5 - 5 points of line value, because on a neutral field these two teams are as evenly matches as possible. 

Both head coaches are looking to better jobs next year most likely, and they are backed by two very good balanced offenses while both defenses really leave a lot to be desired.  Central Florida 96th vs. the pass, Memphis is 98th, and on paper we should have a high scoring game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower scoring game here.

In the first match-up Memphis pretty much played as bad as you can with 4 turnovers.  It was their first road game of the season and it really looked like it.  The turnovers were pretty bad there was a fumble in the red zone that took away at least 3 points off the scoreboard.  Shortly after Central Florida had a 95 yard TD run recapping momentum and taking a huge 16-7 lead at the time.  Later in the second quarter Riley Fergusson threw an interception that was tipped as Memphis was driving which was returned 35 yards and later UCF scored a TD making it 23-7.  At that point the balanced offense that Memphis does possess was sort of out the window.  In the third Fergusson threw another interception as Memphis was driving.  This one was just a bad throw, but probably took another 3-7 points off the board for the Tigers.  The third interception came after a huge 3rd and 12 where the receiver dropped a wide open catch.  On 4th down Fergusson forced a ball that was dropped again by his receiver and picked off setting UCF up in their own territory leading to another TD.  All in all there were also 3 fumbles in this game which UCF recovered each and every one.  Simply luck if you ask me.  I expect this game to be tight much like UCF's last game.

UCF was actually lucky to beat USF who out gained them by 120 yards and won on a 95 yard kickoff return for a TD.  In reality UCF's defense has not looked as dominant down the stretch they have been worse in run offense and defense as the months have progressed yet they have been helped by a very easy schedule.  Their 3rd down play which really won them the game in the first match up as they converted 10-18 and allowed just 4-12 and 1-4 on 4th down has been a struggle lately.  They are converting just 38% over their last 4 games and have allowed 40% conversion over their last 4 games.  Memphis defense has gotten better throughout the season allowing 52% conversions in September, 44% in October, and then 32% in November.

It was just a bad game for Memphis they match-up pretty well in this game and definitely have the ability to win this game.

California +7 4.4% POD / California +235 1%

This game is a very important for both teams with a 6th win and a bowl game on the line.  However, I feel it's much more important to the Cal team who have a first year head coach who has transitioned the program to a completely different style of football.  The extra practice would be a huge benefit.  On the other side you have UCLA, with Josh Rosen who likely will be a top 10 draft pick playing after their head coach was fired.  Does Rosen want to risk an injury?  Does he even want to get to a bowl game?  I have far more questions on the UCLA side than Cal.  Even if UCLA comes to play I like what I have seen from this Cal team in this role this season.

Wilcox has a very good defensive mind, and I think they are able to take Rosen out of this game a bit.  I read an article about how Cal is awful against the pass.  Really?  They have faced 3 future NFL QB's this year.  Ole MIss, Shea Patterson, Washington State's Luke Falk, and USC's Sam Darnold.  They won 2 of those 3 games as an under dog and held the trio of NFL QB's to 4 passing TD's and 8 interceptions.  Now they'll be facing Josh Rosen, who I admit is the best of the bunch, but I don't see him having the mindset to beat a Cal team who will be full invested in a win.

Now, you also have an advantage with Cal's under rated running team.  Patrick Laird has really come on to be a force.  They ran for 155 yards at Stanford last week and while Stanford has not had the best defense this year they are still much better than UCLA who ranks 119th in the country vs. the run.  This sets up well for Cal to not only stay in the game, but pull the upset as I think they will. 

Lions +3 4.4% POD

Bills +7 5.5% POD

Purdue +8 5.5% POD / Purdue +250 1% play

 Iowa just came off two gigantic games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. I don't know how they get up for this game to be honest and Purdue matches up well. Purdue also wants and needs this game more as they are 4-6 and need to win out to get into a bowl game. Jeff Brohm has Purdue competitive in just every game and I don't see any reason to believe that won't be the case here. I really don't think the line is right for this one. Iowa is -84 yards per game in conference play, but they have that big win against OHio State that nobody will forget. Purdue is just -2 yards per game in conference play and have a very good run defense. Iowa when held under 135 yards average only 13.25 points per game. I really think this Purdue team can keep Iowa's rushing totals in that area. There will be 19 mph winds and it'll be 40 degrees in this one making the running game that much more important so let's take a look at how these two match-up. Surprisingly Purdue has the better rushing offense and rushing defense. Purdue averaging 4.4 ypc and 4.34 in conference play they have the #11 offensive line in adjusted line yards. Iowa just 3.68 ypc and 3.58 in conference play ranking #74 on the offensive line. Defensively Purdue allowing just 3.71 ypc and 3.58 ypc in conference play while Iowa allowing 4.35 ypc and 4.44 in conference play. Purdue ranks #1 in adjusted line yards on the defensive side of the ball given their strength of schedule while Iowa ranks 108th. Iowa has faced an average rushing offense ranked 74th while Purdue has faced an average rushing offense ranked 48th. On the flip side Iowa has faced a stronger rushing defense average at #32 compared to Purdue at #55. At the end of the day these teams are both well coached, and this game means more to Iowa and we are getting over a TD against two teams where the game should be shortened. I wouldn't be shocked if Purdue pulls the upset here. 

Bills +130 5.5% NFL POD

Utah +1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I believe Utah is floating under the radar from their 4 game losing streak earlier in the year.  We backed them last week, and they really seem to find their grove in the second half.  Now that their QB Tyler Huntley has been back a full 3 games and they have an extra day to prepare for this game I think they will be in good shape.  Utah's offense can do some really good things and Washington State's defense has really struggled on the road of late, and against mobile QB's this year.  Huntley just put up 93 yards rushing in his last game, and he's an accurate passer to go along with a weapons in the backfield in Moss, and Darren Carrington at WR who will be back for this game.

Washington State typically struggles with physical teams, and they are not used to playing in this environment where Kyle Whittingham typically upsets a ranked team each and every year.  In Utah's 5 losses they allowed 5.80 ypc and in their wins 2.96 ypc.  Washington State does not have the ability to run and balance their offense this year it's been all in the passing game which is a bad match-up for them because Utah is ranked #24 vs. the pass.  Washington State's running game is ranked 126th and is averaging just 2.3 ypc on the road.  The extra day of prep will allow this Utah defense to scheme to put Washington State in some third and long situations which typically does not bode well for them.  They have turned the ball over 23 times this year and I could see a few more in this game.

Utah should also have the edge in special teams where they rank #17 to Washington State's 106th ranking.  Add it all up and I like how Utah looks to finish the year and they also need the wins to get into a bowl game. 

Titans -3.5 5.5% POD

Oklahoma +105 5.5% play of the day

This is by far the best offense that Oklahoma State has faced.  Baker Mayfield is a beat with his 23 passing TD’s and just 3 INT’s and I love how fiery he is in games.  He really gets his team fired up.  IT was obviously when they went on the road and defeated Ohio State that they were the better team in that game.  I just think this team loses focus at times and we can be assured that doesn’t happen in their biggest game of the year.

For Oklahoma State they have probably looked worse in games than they are.  Mason Rudolph has had some struggles with the injuries to the offensive line.  It’s said that they are as healthy as they have been in a while on the offensive line, but that can certainly change in a heart beat as this team does not have a lot of depth there.

Oklahoma’s defense is capable of shutting teams down when they want to.  They can also play ball control, and are getting their RB Abdul Adams back who is fully healthy and averaging 10.4 yards per carry.  Oklahoma State has allowed 3 teams to run for more than 200 yards so they are vulnerable there and every team is vulnerable against Baker Mayfield.  I just think the wrong team is favored here and I’ll take Oklahoma on the money line to win and stay in the college football race. 

Northern Illinois +8.5 5.5% POD

Northern Illinois has faced 5 top 76 teams compared to Toledo’s 2.  They both fared similarly against Eastern Michigan at home, and overall I would say these two teams are about even with their strengths and weaknesses.  I’d say the biggest advantage in this game is Northern Illinois rushing offense against Toledo’s rushing defense which ranks 104th.  Northern Illinois has been able to run the ball much better since Freshman QB Marcus Childers has taken over and he’s only getting better.  Childers just had a good game passing the ball as well against Eastern Michigan who ranked #32 vs. the pass.  The advantage that Toledo has in this game is certainly with their special teams that ranks 7th compared to Northern Illinois at 116.  However, Carey is a good coach and I think he’ll be looking hard at that this week.

Northern Illinois is not as skilled on offense as Toledo who can run and pass the ball, but their defense and rushing offense should control this game.  Northern Illinois defense ranks #6 vs. the run and they have faced an average opponent ranking 87th.  However, against Boston College, Nebraska and San Diego State they only allowed 293 yards and 2.23 ypc.  They actually played up to their competition and I expect them to step up against Toledo.  Now there is no question neither one of those teams has a Logan Woodside at QB – 19TD/2INT’s on the season so let’s look at that.

Woodside has actually gotten the majority of those stats against defenses ranking 127, 126, 77th, 119 – 16 TD/ 2INT.  Against passing defenses in the same caliber as Northern Illinois (13, 32, 15), Northern Illinois ranks #22.  He completing 60.7% of his passes 240 yards per game, 3 total TD’s 0 INT’s.  Northern Illinois can actually get to the QB much like Miami as they rank 19th in the country in sack %.  I expect Woodside to put up a lot of yards like he has against quality defenses, but struggle in the red zone.  It’s worth noting he just lost his top target Cody Thompson in the last game for the season and this offense has only scored TD’s 50% of the time in the red zone.  Northern Illinois defense is allowing only 33% TD percentage in the red zone.  Compare it with Northern Illinois 58% on offense, and Toledo’s alarming 80.95% TD’s allowed in the red zone.  Northern Illinois is also top 25 in big plays allowed.

The only reason Toledo is favored here is because their only loss is against Miami, but they were blown out in that game.  Miami has played a lot of close games this year so that loss is a little more alarming.  Northern Illinois dominated their game on the road against San Diego State doubling them in yardage, but lost the game.  They lost by 3 to open the season against Boston College and are a play or two away from being undefeated and if that were the case we would have a +3 spread here.  Bottom line I think the coaching advantage is on Northern Illinois side.  Candle has done a great job with Toledo, but it’s been against a weak schedule.  Northern Illinois has actually dominated this match-up.  They lost by 7 last year in a down year, but had won 6 straight previously.  This will be a close game and come down to the wire with Northern Illinois having a chance to pull the outright upset!  The weather also favors Northern Illinois as it’s supposed to have a chance of rain and 10-15mph winds.  Northern Illinois has the more mobile QB, and the better defense here getting 8.5 points is a bargain when you consider bad weather wind+rain will lead to lower scores.

Lions +3 5.5% Pod +100

TCU -6.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I liked the Horned Frogs here who are probably an unpopular favorite this week.  Iowa State has covered 3 straight weeks by 14+ points against the spread and are now ranked #25, but they are stepping up in class this week against TCU.

TCU’s attention is on Iowa State who they know are a threat to their college football playoff spot.  This team is well focused for this game and I think should hold Iowa State’s offense in check.  Kyle Kempt the walk on QB for Iowa State has completed 70% of his passes 7TD’s and 1 INT, but has gone against the 97th, 129th, and 87th ranked pass defenses.  Here he will face TCU who ranks #32 overall, but are also dominant vs. the run and are holding opponents to 47.6% completion percentage.  That’s key here as Iowa State has been unable to run the ball consistently.  TCU should have a good defensive game plan here.

TCU has been very good on the road and I have to admit that Kenny Hill has been impressive in a balanced offense.  Iowa State has also benefited from facing teams with poor special teams rankings.  Oklahoma 123rd, Texas Tech 91st, and Kansas 110th.  This week they face TCU who is ranked #2 in special teams.  They also face off in a game where they don’t have the coaching edge.  I really like Matt Campbell, but Gary Patterson is simply one of the best. 

Cleveland Browns +6 5.5% NFL POD

Michigan +9.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Michigan is getting a lot of points in this one in my opinion and Harbough has only lost 7 games since he’s been at Michigan and they have been all close besides a loss to Ohio State, a team that went onto win the National Championship.  Otherwise his losses have been by 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, and 7. 

Michigan can shut down Barkley in this game as they are the #5 run defense.  We saw Indiana shut down Barkley recently holding this offense to 39 rushing yards.  The same Indiana defense that just gave up 271 to Michigan.  Actually, I think Michigan might have found confidence and a running game in that game a week ago with Kavan Higdon 25 rushes for 200 yards.  That was against Indiana with the #22 defensive line, #48 in power success defense.  Now Michigan although going on the road could have some success running the ball as they face Penn State who ranks 37th in defensive line, but an alarming 104th in power success defense.  Look at the offenses Penn State has faced from a rushing ypc perspective – 116, 118, 108, 98, 103, and 100.  They gave up 150+ yards 3 times.  Nobody likes to run the power run game more than Harbough and that will allow him to keep this game close in my opinion.

Penn State has also only faced one defense ranked in the top 50 in passing defense and that was Iowa.  They nearly lost on the road against Iowa it took a beautiful, if not lucky pass by McSorley on the road to pull the 21-19 victory over Iowa.  Iowa actually not one of those teams that Penn State faced with a good run defense.  I’ve heard many say that if you like Michigan parlay it with the under, but this total is very low.  I expect Michigan to have success on offense in their power running game while Penn State should have success in the passing game.  McSorley is very under rated, and has good receivers and a TE target that Michigan has not seen yet.  When it’s all said and done I feel it comes down to a field goal and Penn State will pull it off, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see it go the other way. 

Houston -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

Memphis ranked #25 and is a dog here this week.  We have seen this before as Memphis will likely get much of the money leading up to kickoff.  However, looking at the adjusted statistic ratings as well as the efficiency ratings combined has Houston as the #26 team, and Memphis as #57.. Yet the Oddsmakers are calling this a pk on a neutral field?  Houston also has the benefit in this game of being at home having just played on Saturday while Memphis was in a tough match-up against Navy and pulled the upset.  1, it's not easy traveling on short rest in college football, 2, it's not easy playing the next week after the triple option, 3, it's not easy after getting a huge win like that game against Navy as Memphis is in a major letdown spot even though they are playing this game with a chance to get to the AAC Title game.

Houston wants revenge for losing last year in this one and the only reason they are short favorites is the perception of the offenses.  Memphis has a dynamic offense, but they have ran it up against bad defenses.  Their adjusted efficiency offense is actually ranked #74, and they are stronger passing the ball.  Their QB Riley Fergusson is not 100% and he goes up against Houston's defense that has already played 3 top 50 passing offenses and held Texas Tech & Arizona to season lows in points.  They actually rank 14th in opposing QB rating and it's just not a good match-up for Memphis.  Also worth noting that when Houston lost last year it was on the road and it came after an upset of Louisville who was ranked in the top 5 at the time.

For Houston the key match up is going up against this Memphis defense which is actually better than the stats suggest.  I'm not lost in that as they rank 34th in adjusted defense.  However, their weakness comes against the run where they rank 93rd overall in rushing yards per carry.  They rank 113th in power success rate defense.  Houston should be able to play to their strengths which is a big key for them winning a game.  Houston averages 4.93 ypc in their wins, and 3.28 ypc in their losses this year.  last year they were also +1.24 ypc in their wins and the year before +1.69.  It's no secret what their key to victory is and it seems like they should have enough success on Thursday night at home.  Memphis has allowed 6.23 ypc in their two road games and they have allowed everyone to rush for more than 4.62 ypc with the exception of LA Monroe, and FCS foe Southern Illinois.

Line value?  We talk about this along with perception on our podcast and we certainly have it here with Houston losing to Tulsa 45-17 last week after Tulsa had lost 3 in a row.  Houston was only out gained in that game by 12 yards, but turned the ball over far too many times.  Tulsa was also desperate for a win after facing 3 option teams in a row.

Browns +10 5.5% POD

Vanderbilt +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Vanderbilt just had a brutal stretch of games facing Alabama, Florida and Georgia and they were outrushed in those games 1,137 to 150.  We know Vanderbilt is not as good on defense this year, but they have been better offensively.  Getting beat up in the trenches the last three weeks they have actually stayed healthy.  Now they face a team in Ole Miss who is averaging 2.88 yards per carry and has just 380 yards on the season eclipsing 100 just one time with 102 in game 1.  Ole Miss defense has been awful against the run allowing 5.57 yards per carry and 160+ in each game including their game against FCS foe Tenn-Martin.

Vanderbilt is desperate for a win here if they want to go bowling.  Ole Miss really has nothing to play for with their self-bowl ban.  They actually just played Alabama and Auburn, two top 10 teams, and now they face Vanderbilt at 3:30.  Not that exciting if you ask me, but this is a game Vanderbilt won last year 38-17 at home as a 10 point dog.  In that game they ran for 208 yards and 3 TD’s and I expect them to finally get back to running the football here after facing three top 25 run defenses and Florida on the road they’ll get to face Ole Miss ranking #122.  With a working running game Kyle Schurmur who has been very good this year with 12 TD’s 1 INT should be even better as Vanderbilt cruises in this game. 

Ole Miss does have a flashy QB in Shea Patterson, but he’s thrown 6 interceptions in 5 games and Vanderbilt’s defense is far better vs. the pass than the run which is Ole Miss strength.  Vanderbilt’s pass defense has only allowed 5 TD’s and 5 INT’s, and they are top 40 in nearly every passing defense stat.  I just think this is a better matchup for Vanderbilt who comes into this game healthier than they probably thought they would be after a stretch of 3 brutal games.  Now they face a team that if they come out strong should give up and allow Vanderbilt to cruise to an easy victory. 

Dolphins -110 5.5% pod

Oregon +120 5.5% POD @ 8PM ET

I’ll take the Ducks here.  For some reason I can’t get Washington State’s game at home against Boise State out of my mind and how it took a miracle for them to come back in that game.  I understand Luke Falk went down early in that game, but Boise also lost their starter in that game.  Washington State trailed 31-10 with then minutes to go in that game before taking the game in OT.  Let me remind you that Boise State got blown out at home against Virginia 2 weeks ago.  We were on that game.  Why is a #11 ranked team only a short favorite on the road against a team that just lost their QB?

This is Washington’s first road game of the season after pulling off a major upset over USC who really has not played up to expectations this year and went into Washington with a ton of injuries.  This is a major hang over spot here and I like what I have seen from Oregon.  Oregon will be without their starting QB, but I like their ability to run the ball and now they are adding in a mobile QB in Alie or the freshman Braxton Burmeister.  I’m sure both will see time.  Boise State’s QB Cozart rushed for 72 yards in that game at Washington State and I expect a big game on the ground for Oregon in order ot take advantage of Washington’s State’s size on the defense.  It doesn’t hurt that they’ll get Royce Freeman back for this game either.

The other reason I like Oregon here is because of the defense.  One of the worst defenses last year and they have dramatically improved under Jim Leavitt, which is no shock.  Leavitt has this team playing great ranking 12th in sack % as they have 20 on the year a big key to stopping this Washington State offense which is more one dimensional this year.  Washington State really hasn’t been able to run the ball and if you bring a one dimensional attack up against a very good defensive coordinator like Leavitt you will not have a great game.  Leavitt, the DC at Colorado the last few years turned that defense around and is doing it quicker here at Oregon.  Colorado held Falk to less than a 50% completion percentage last year and picked him off.  Oregon State also allowing just 25% on third down, and the run defense is allowing just 2.62 ypc so there are no glaring weaknesses like in years past.

Chargers -1.5 5.5% POD

Northern Illinois +10.5 5.5% POD

This is a difficult situation for San Diego State here coming off three big wins by 10 points or less.  This is a definitely sell high situation here.  Also San Diego State has to be a bit tired after these three games they played Stanford, followed by Air Force’s cut blocking and a 90 minute weather delay.  Meanwhile, Northern Illinois comes into this game fresh and healthy off a bye.

These two met a year ago with San Diego State winning 42-28 on the road, but it was far closer than he final indicated and I feel like Northern Illinois can hang with San Diego State here.  Northern Illinois is allowing just 2.24 ypc and their pass defense has 6 interceptions allowing just 2 passing TD’s and they haven’t allowed any big plays.  San Diego State’s head coach Rocky Long said it last week.  They need a passing game to set up a running game.  Early in the game against Air Force they could not pass because of the weather and San Diego State trailed 9-0.  After the 90 minute delay they opened up with play action and were able to score points in their 28-24 win.  Against Northern Illinois I don’t believe they will have that opportunity.  As crazy as it is to say.  Northern Illinois is the best defense they have faced all year ranking 9th in yards per play allowed.  San Diego State has faced off against 85, 95, and 100th ranked defenses.

The other thing to note here are both teams play extremely slow and lean on the run first.  Which typically means the clock will move and there will be a limited number of plays.  10 points mean much more in those type of games.  Northern Illinois out of the MAC has been competitive in all their games this year.  The MAC has gone 12-13 since 2010 vs. the Mountain West so this should set up to be a good game.  Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 as a road dog.   

USC -3.5 4.4% POD

This is a buy low situation with USC if one exists.  Public perception is super low with this team based on how they played against Texas, and Cal the last two weeks.  I think this USC team is a team that will play up with the competition it faces.  We saw it in their most challenging game against Stanford as they steam rolled them at home.  Now, I have not been high on this team and you have even heard me bashing QB Sam Darnold on my podcast.  However, it just seems liket he right time to buy in on USC when everyone else is selling.  Let’s get into the match up.

First of all on paper it looks like Washington State has a great defense, but they have faced offenses who are ranked 92nd, 93rd, and 104th in yards per play offense.  Overall they have faced the 112th ranked strength of schedule compared to USC’s #12 ranked schedule.  I’m not buying Washington State as a top 25 team.  This team did not have to face USC a year ago, and when they stepped up against the best in the conference they lost big to Colorado by 14, and Washington by 28.  I see more of the same their offense is actually worse than it was a year ago, because they have been completely one dimensional averaging 2.81 ypc and throwing the ball 70% of the time.  That falls into USC’s strengths on defense.  They are a solid defense in the red zone and they rank 20th in opponent QB rating, 42nd in sack % and 12th in completion % allowed.  They are talented enough to get to Luke Faulk with a 3 or 4 man rush on Friday night.

When USC has the ball Washington State is in trouble.  They will be facing USC who does have a balanced offense that can hurt you with the run and the pass.  They haven’t seen that from any of the opponents they faced.  When the faced Boise they knocked out Brett Rypien and they still struggled and need a late 4th quarter come back to win that game.  They were so lucky to even win that game as a 13 point favorite as Boise State had a 31-10 lead in that game in the 4th quarter.  Boise State statistically appears to have a good defense, but we all know they are over rated there as well.  Boise held them to 4.84 yards play and averaged 5.57 themselves.  Boise deserved to win that game and that tells you all you need to know about this game in my opinion.  Granted I know Luke Faulk missed that game as well, but Boise also lost their starting QB and there is more of a drop off from Rypien to Cozart than there is with Falk to Hillinski and Falk still played half of the game.

At the end of the day USC is now hearing doubts from everyone in the media and this just feels like a game on a Friday night on ESPN that they will look to dominate.

Bills +3.5 5.5% POD

Miami Ohio +100 5.5% POD

The Red Hawks are flying under the radar.  They closed last season with 6 straight wins, but some bad luck in the Marshall game to start the year and a tough loss this past weekend against Cinci leaves this team with plenty of value for week #4.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 17 returning starters and their defense is tops in the MAC a year ago returns 8 starters and already looks the part.

Central Michigan has put up some points, but have also given up plenty.  They gave up 27 and 470 yards to a very bad Kansas team.  Their strengths are passing the ball, and defending the pass, but I see Miami Ohio’s pass defense which is among the best in the country shutting Shane Morris down.  This is a one dimensional team right now and Miami Ohio is too good of a defense not to shut it down.  Central Michigan even with their success has only converted 25% on third down and have actually struggled in the red zone as well. 

Miami Ohio’s offense at some point has to step up and I think now that MAC play has started it’s almost like a fresh start.  Gus Ragland had 15 TD’s and only 0 INT’s in MAC play a year ago including a 4TD performance against Central Michigan.  I expect Miami Ohio to play their best game here and get a very big win to start MAC play. 

Utah -3 buy ½ point -130 5% NCAAF POD

To me there is no doubt that Utah is the better team and has the better coach in this game as Kyle Whittingham is a coach I would take over most.  It seems like this team finally found it’s QB in Tyler Huntley who I believe is just getting started.  Now there have been times where this offense has looked a bit off so far this season with 22 penalties in their first two games, but last week they only had 6 and they continue to improve.  Huntley provides that elusive run pass offense and he is a killer in the running game.  Arizona really hasn’t faced a QB That can run like this since Marcus Mariotta.  Huntley is also completing 72% of his plays for 7.8 yds/att and was impressive against a very good BYU defense completing 28-37 for 314 passing yards and the big key, 0 INT’s!

Arizona just came off 63 points, but that was against UTEP and it was in misleading fashion.  They barely eclipsed 500 yards, and benefited from playing a depleted UTEP team and had an average starting field position of the 39.7 yard line.  That won’t happen against the Utes who have a top 10 special teams unit each of the last three years and probably the best punter in Mitch Wishnowsky.  Arizona ranked 115th in special teams last year.

The key of this game is whether or not Utah can stop the run.  That’s really what drives the success of Arizona’s offense.  Utah allowing under 2 yards per carry so far this season and while this is their most difficult test I think they are up for it.  Arizona already showed issues running the ball against Houston with only 3.90 ypc and I feel like Utah will be able to get an early lead forcing Arizona out of that game plan which will lead to some Utah turnovers.  Utah has already forced 9 in three games.

So why is this spread only 3 points?  Arizona really has not hit their stried yet.  Their 19-13 victory over BYU was extremely misleading and doesn’t look impressive considering how bad BYU has played.  However, I think BYU always gets up for Utah and even then they were losing 16-0 in the third and it could have easily been 31-0.  They still had their starting QB and Utah left a ton of points out there as they struggled in the red zone, but were moving the ball well against BYU.  Utah, I think will have success moving the ball, will have the field position edge and I think their offense is only getting better.  They will limit their penalties and be better in the red zone.  Arizona has played good red zone defense, but against who?  The last two years Arizona has allowed over a 70% TD percentage.  

Florida +5.5 5.5% POD

You may be able to wait and pick up a +6, but I don’t think you need to.  This spread has moved in our favor due to many Florida player suspensions which we have been aware of and always back a team that has to rally together.  Jim McElwain is an extremely under rated head coach and I mentioned this was a game I circled in the off season.  Michigan has just 5 returning starters, and this is the time you want to face an inexperienced team.

Florida will be without a few starters, but I recall teams being able to rally and play and win as bigger under dogs.  We backed Minnesota last year in the bowl game against Washington State as a 10 point dog.  They won 17-12 and held a potent Washington State team to 6 points until late in the game.  Florida was also in a similar situation last year against LSU and they were able to come out with a win on the road by the score of 16-10.  If anything this game just gave us 2 points of value and I already felt like Florida should be favored.

Florida has 14 returning starters and 9 on offense, but will be shorthanded without Antonio Callaway, and Jordan Scarlett at RB.  I’m not really worried as Florida has plenty of talent to pull from and I am more confident by the fact that they have their most experienced offensive line in years with 63 starts led by Martez Ivey second team ALL-SEC..  Felieipe Franks (#6 QB out of HS), the red shirt freshman will make the start at QB, and Malik Zaire will probably get some playing time and is a threat to run.  Defensively this team returns just 5 starters, but as I mentioned Michigan returns just 1.  Florida’s starters returning is also a bit misleading as this defense experienced a crazy amount of injuries on their defense a year ago leading to more guys getting experience that will help them in this game.

It’s worth noting Florida lost to Michigan in their bowl game in 2015, but the SEC is 22-11 against the Big Ten since 2010 outscoring them 30.9 to 21.1.  The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. 

Oregon State +4 4.4% NCAAF POD

The first match up of the 2017 season falls between Pac 12 and the Mountain West.  Both teams are really in similar situations as you have Oregon State and Gary Anderson in his third year while you have Colorado State’s Mike Bobbo in his third year.  Bobbo and Colorado State have gone to back to back bowls and really lit it up down the stretch.  They come into this game with a ton of hype with their new stadium, and how they finished last year and all that tells me is that we have an inflated line.

Colorado State returns 14 starters while Oregon State returns 15.  The 2 and 5 year recruiting rankings are in favor of Oregon State 43/49 to 69/79 so Oregon State should really be favored and when you look at the front lines of both teams I love the value we are getting here with Oregon State.  The Beavers have improved each of the last two years on offense and defense and I think it’s finally time for them to take the next step and get back to a bowl game.  Their offense improved by over a TD last year and they return both Nall and Pierce who both averaged over 5 yards per carry.  Along with the RB’s they return 3 QB’s with starting experience, but in this game they can really lean on the run.

When you look at both teams they are very good at running the ball, but very bad at stopping it a year ago.  Oregon State #32nd in running the ball while Colorado State was #24, but Colorado State faced only 4 teams in the top 50 in stopping the run while Oregon State faced 7.  Defensively Oregon State faced 4 top 30 running teams on their way to struggling ranking 90th.  Colorado State was not any better at 91st andt hey faced just 2 teams in the top 30.  They gave up 200+ yards rushing 9 times last year and Oregon State went 4-0 when they could run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.

Both teams come in with their most experienced teams in three years.  I like what Oregon State has along the defensive line and I see them improving more as they return all of their starters on the defensive line and add in Michigan State/JUCO transfer Craig Evans who is a330lb linemen.  Compare that with Colorado State who on paper have 3 returning starters, but lost 3 defensive tackles and a DE.  Depth is definitely a factor here. 

You also have to handicap the fact that Colorado State will face Colorado the following week their instate rival.  They definitely can’t help but look ahead to that game that means a lot more than this game.  Oregon State has a tough schedule and would love to start the season 2-0 with Portland State on deck.   Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Mountain West (losers to Boise last year) and in case you are wondering the PAC 12 IS 49-17 since 2010 against the Mountain West while outscoring opponents by 13.4ppg.  In fact they have averaged over 34 ppg each of the last 4 years.

Patriots -3 -105 5.5% POD

Packers +185 5.5% POD

Packers +175 5.5% POD

Packers -5.5 5.5% POD

Raiders +4 5.5% NFL POD

Auburn +120 5.5% POD

Auburn feels lucky to be in the Sugar Bowl with 4 losses, but this is a better team than their record indicates.  Part of playing in the best division in college football is you get hit with injuries and that’s what happened to this team.  Sean White, their QB who led the SEC in pass efficiency is back for this game and their bruising RB Pettway also returns and I like his chances to really control this game against Oklahoma who struggles vs. the run ranking 69th in ypc allowed.  Oklahoma allowed 200+ yards 4 times this year including 3 times to close the season. 

Oklahoma’s defense ranks 75th and faced an average offense ranking 58th while Auburn’s defense ranks 25th and faced an average offense ranking 57.9.  I’ll lean towards the better defense almost every time when getting points and that’s the case in this game here today.  Oklahoma’s #1 ranked offense is getting a lot of hype.  They sent two guys to the Heisman Trophy ceremony, but they faced just three teams in the top 50 in total defense and 2 of them beat them.  Houston beat Oklahoma with the 16th ranked defense and 95th ranked offense.  Ohio State beat them with the 3rd ranked defense and 45th ranked offense.  Now they face Auburn whom I think is the best team on their schedule ranking 25th with the 36th ranked offense.  Auburn’s offense still good despite what many think and the fact that they are now healthy and motivated to beat the Big 12 Champions.  This should be exciting!

Packers -3.5 5.5% POD

Clemson +130 5.5% POD

As you know I have been backing the ACC and touting them as the best conference this season.  They had by far the most experience coming back of any conference and they have certainly lived up to that this bowl season.  With the exception of Pitt who lost their star RB early in their game against Northwestern and their QB later.  The ACC is undefeated SU and ATS.  The ACC went 7-3 vs. the SEC This year, they are 4-2 vs. the Big 10.  So we have made the case that the ACC is better than the Big 10 this season. Let’s move onto coaching.

You really can’t say Dabo Swinney is better than Urban Meyer, but besides the national championships Meyer has it’s pretty damn close and pretty damn remarkable what Swinney has done here at Clemson.  Swinney went head to head with Meyer before as a dog in 2013 in their bowl game and won 40-35.  Defense will win this game and I’ll take Brent Venables, the Clemson defensive coordinator over Greg Schiano who is in his first year as the defensive coordinator and is playing by far the best offensive team and QB all year.  Venables has been here since 2012 and took this defense in 2012 to a 60th defensive ranking from a YPP perspective to 38th, #1, #11, and 6th this year.

I truly think this Clemson team has been on a mission and I really enjoyed watching the offense down the stretch.  Sure they lost some guys from last year, but they brought back more starters than both Ohio State and Alabama.  Their offense has more WR depth with Mike Williams coming back and Wayne Gallman & Deshaun Watson got hot late.  Gallman actually has 87 fewer carries than last year and that’s a good thing going into these games. 

Strength of schedule – Both teams faced a top 10 strength of schedule with elite competition in their non-conference games.  Ohio State is ranked as having the #1 SOS and Clemson has #7.  I took a deeper look I completely disagree.  Ohio State had the 3rd ranked defense and faced an average opponent ranking 67th.  Clemson had the 6th ranked defense and faced an average opponent ranking 62nd.  Clemson faced 5 top 40 offenses while Ohio State faced 4.  It’s close but I would say both teams have about the same level of talent on defense and Clemson had the tougher schedule.

Offensively Ohio State ranks 38th, and lets be honest they are a bit one dimensional with strengths in the running game as they lack a receiver and JT Barret lacks accuracy and footwork in the pocket at times.  They faced a ton of tough defenses this year on their way to that ranking an average opponent ranking 50.5.  Clemson however, has the 27th ranked offense a more balanced offense and better QB all around.  Clemson took on an average defense ranking 46.4, a tougher schedule when you consider they faced six top 30 defenses 8 top 40 defenses.  Ohio State faced 4 top 30 defenses and just 5 top 40 defenses.  Ohio State’s offense vs. top 30 defenses scored 38, 21, 30, and 30 which is impressive, but keep in mind only Michigan and Penn State had an offense that could keep Ohio State off the field.  Ohio State’s offense really struggled against Michigan and in my opinion they lost that game.  The officiating seemed to be against them, and that game went to two OT’s as Ohio State scored just 17 points in regulation and 7 of those were a defensive TD.  Clemson on the other hand in their 6 games vs. top 30 defenses averaged 35.5 points and they faced an SEC defense in non-conference play on the road.

Trenches and efficiency are big time considerations in these type of games and I feel like Clemson has the edge.  We already have shown they faced the stronger schedule and yet they did better on third down offense and defense.  Red zone TD% was another edge they had against tougher defenses.  In the trenches is where I think they have the advantage in this one they have +50 tackles for loss compared to Ohio State who was only +25 this year.  They have +32 sacks while Ohio State does even have 32 sacks as they had 26 while allowing 25.  Havoc rates Clemson ranks 4th, 7th, and 21st while Ohio State ranks 15th, 17th, and 30th.  Clemson has to watch the turnovers in this game that is their biggest threat to losing this game in my opinion.  They had 24 this year, but only 3 over their last 3 games.  They also forced 24 so it’s not all bad while Ohio State is +16 in turnover margin.  I will say Clemson ranked 118th in fumble recovery % which is essentially luck compared to Ohio State who ranks 43rd.  

If you read this far thank you.  We certainly have to break down the X-factors that are the QB’s in this game with running abilities.  Deshaun Watson really has not carried the ball a ton this year like he did a year ago, but he had 17 carries for 85 yards against Virginia Tech.  It really seems like he is saving it for these two games.  Last year he had 145 yards against Oklahoma and 73 vs. Alabama.  You really can’t stack the box against Watson with his arm he will pick you apart.  Ohio State’s young defense which has struggled in the trenches has not faced a mobile QB like this.  They were lucky to knock Tommie Armstrong out of their game early who had 4 carries for 19 yards.  McSorley from Penn State had 63 yards on 19 carries and Clayton Thorson who is not even a running QB had 44 yards on 6 carries.  Now, JT Barret is going up against a defense that had 112 tackles for loss and 46 sacks and he doesn’t have the arm or the receiving weapons that Clemson has.  Clemson also has been good against running QB’s and has faced some of the best this season.  They kept Lamar Jackson under wraps in the first half before he got lose and I think they’ll really study that tape before this game.  The other guys they faced Justin Thomas, Francois, and Jerrod Evans did not get much in 38 carries for just 68 total yards.

Florida State +7 5.5% POD

Florida State has not really shown up in bowl games of late, but as an under dog they definitely do show up under Jimbo Fisher.  That’s a role they haven’t been in much, but 2-1 ATS this season as a dog.  Florida State really progressed on both sides of the ball throughout this year.  It was a challenge early for the defense who lost their defensive leader Derwyn James and having to face 5 top 40 offenses from a YPP perspective did not help.  The defense however settled in led the nation in sacks led by senior Demarcus Walker there is plenty of talent on that side of the ball.

Michigan also has a very strong defensive unit ranked 2nd in yards per play allowed, but they faced a very average offensive strength of schedule.  Their opponents were an average 78.5th yards per play on offense so it’s not a surprise why they were so dominant.  Against Ohio State ranked 38th in yards per play offense they were very good, but late in the game they had issues stopping the run, and Ohio State is very much one dimensional.  Florida State has a young, but growing QB in Deondre Francois.  I have been extremely impressed with this kids ability to lead this team and not turn the ball over and the extra prep time really benefits this Florida State offense that has serious weapons that Michigan has not faced.

Francois can be a dual threat QB if he needs to be, but the one two punch of Dalvin Cook and Patrick should provide enough balance.  Francois has some really good receivers that only got better as the season went on.  Florida State played 4 top 30 defenses in their last 5 games and scored 34, 24, 45 and 31 points.  I see this being a close game because of their ability to score points against good defenses.  Dalvin Cook will be the key and Michigan’s run defense has shown vulnerabilities this year.  Giving up more than 200 yards three times.  They gave up 164 in their loss against Iowa. 

The ACC is the stronger conference this year because of experience.  They have gone 4-1 against the Big Ten while going 7-3 against the SEC.  Florida State is 7 points away from being a 1 loss team.

South Carolina +10 5.5% POD

I like the Gamecocks and not just because they are out of the SEC.  They have won their last 4 bowls, and are 4-0 vs. the American Athletic Conference the last 4 years and I think they come into this game in the right situation.  Let’s touch on the conferences first though because it is important to note that the SEC has depth and we are getting double digit spread here with a South Carolina team that has a lot of young talent and showed progressions at the end of the season.  The AAC is 1-4 in bowl games so far and 7-16 over the first 4 years now.  Meanwhile the SEC went 9-2 last year and is 1-1 this year so far.

South Carolina’s offense can stay on the field for them in this game.  This running game go tgoing late in the season when Jake Bentley took over at QB.  The offense went up by 64 yards per game, 10.5 points per game, and less turnovers.  The running game led by two freshman in Dowdle and Turner are both freshman.  They have one of the best WR in the SEC when healthy in Deebo Samuel and he will be for this game.  This team averages 4.65 ypc in wins and 2.53 in losses.  When they can stay on the field their defense also plays better and that’s what I predict for them in this game.  South Florida is among the worst run defenses in the nation and 120th in overall defense.  Bentley throwing the ball, and Dowdle running the ball will be a winning combination here.

South Florida comes into this game with a potent offense that could score enough to cover this high spread, but I believe South Carolina will shorten this game.  South Florida also already announced the new coach after Willie Taggart left.  We have seen bad results with that scenario this bowl season with Temple and Houston winning as favorites.  South Florida’s offensive coordinator will coach this game, but Charlie Strong is waiting to take this program over and I don’t know how much motivation he will have here.  We saw similar results last year with the SEC Auburn team defeating Memphis out the of the American in this very bowl game last year 31-10 after Justin Fuente jumped ship from Memphis.  I don’t know if I feel confident that South Carolina will win this one, but I do like them to cover the spread.

Miami -2.5 5.5% POD

I’m backing the ACC team in Miami.  There is a clue in this line with West Virginia having 10-2 record out of the Big 12 with their only loses being against two top 10 teams, but yet they are under dogs.  Dana Holgorson already expressed his disappointment with being in this bowl game despite a 10-2 record and I’m also not really respecting the Big 12.

Miami was banged up all year long in key games on the offensive line and QB Brad Kaaya had some injury issues that he fought through so I think you see the best version of Miami in this game.  West Virginia lost to those two top 10 teams by 17 and 28 points and I’m not even so sure that Oklahoma State would beat a healthy Miami team.

Miami has faced a tougher schedule.  Their 19th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective played an average 51 YPP ranking and they finished 27th holding opponents 56.6 yards under their season average.  Meanwhile West Virginia’s defense also faced an average opponent ranking 51st in YPP and they finished 53rd in yards per play allowed.  On paper the offense for West Virginia is slightly better, but they faced a far weaker schedule and Miami’s offensive line was really banged up at times this year.

Keys to the game are going to start in the trenches and Miami just has massive advantages here.  They have 99 tackles for loss compared to just 52 for West Virginia’s defensive line.  I really think this is the best defense West Virginia has faced all year as they are 11th in front 7 havoc rate and I think Skyler Howard is going to be pressured into making mistakes.  On the flip side Miami has turned the ball over just 10 times all eyar behind an experienced QB in Kaaya who should have a balanced attack ahead of him.  Miami’s rushing offense has 5.97 ypc in wins and 2.04 in losses with 22 TD’s in the wins and 2 TD’s in the losses. 

West Virginia’s run defense is not exactly great.  We mentioned they were 52nd in tackles for loss.  Their front 7 havoc rate is 128th, but a lot of people are calling this a dominant defense which I don’t agree with.  Kansas who is ranked 113th in rushing ran for 150, and Iowa State ranked 69th ran for nearly 200 at a 5.59 ypc clip.  All 4 of their final opponents ran for over 4 yards per carry and that bodes well for Miami.  Miami’s run defense in case you were curious has been extremely dominant.  They have allowed only 8 rushing TD’s all year.  That’s going to be a huge issue because I certainly don’t trust Skyler Howard to win this game on his own.

Minnesota +10 5.5% POD

These are two contrasting styles in two contrasting conferences, but I like the Big Ten a little bit better.  They went 5-3 against the PAC 12 last year and 3-1 this year so far.  Minnesota is getting extra points here because of the suspensions and the fact that they are in the secondary, but I believe that has just given us value in the line.  This secondary still has 2 future NFL players in Damarius Travis and Jalen Myrick and I have to believe that MInnesota has some depth and the young players will be more excited to play and showcase their talent.

Minnesota will have to stop or slow down the air raid offense and I think they have the ingredients to do so.  Minnesota is 30th in sack %, and 14th in front 7 havoc rate.  They had +32 tackles for loss on the season compared with their offense and they are +19 in sacks while Washington State is -9 in sacks.  Washington State only faced 3 teams in the top 50 in sack % and they went 1-2 against those teams.  I believe Minnesota should be able to shorten this game as well with their offense. 

Washington State did a good job against the run all year and they will have another chance against Minnesota who is going to run the ball 60% of the time, but if they aren't careful I think they could get burned here for being over aggressive early in this game by stacking the box.  Mitch Leidner did not have a good season at QB for Minnesota, but he's a senior who has played in 3 bowl games and has played well in each of those games with 4 passing TD's to 1 interception.  I think Leidner will give his team a shot to win.  The running game should be able to control the offense with their size.  It's not every day that Washington State sees an offense like this and I think both defenses will struggle at times.  In the end I'll back Minnesota I think their head coach has done a fantastic job and the distractions of the suspensions have given us some extra line value here. 

Boston College +2.5 5.5% POD

First of all I look at the ACC, and I feel they are an under rated conference from top to bottom.  ACC is the most experienced conference of the power 5 going into the year, and I really think there are some solid teams throughout.  The Big Ten lost a lot of talent last year and were among the inexperienced teams and have a lot of bottom feeders.  ACC went 3-1 vs. the Big Ten.  Meanwhile comparing what the ACC did against the MAC, Sun Belt, Conference USA, and AAC they did better in 3 of the 4 conferences from a record and point differential perspective.

To me these are two similar offenses that have struggled this year.  Maryland was without their QB at times and that’s why they struggled a ton, but even with Perry Hillis this team when they step up in competition do not play well.  In fact they beat 1 bowl team all year long.  That was Central Florida out of the AAC.  Really they were lucky to win that game because they were +4 in turnover margin.  That was 40% of the turnovers Maryland forced all year.  Central Florida got waxed in their bowl as favorites against a Sun Belt team.  That win looks even worse.  Maryland will face a top 50 defense in Boston College here today and they are 1-6 this year against such foes.

Boston College plays in a tougher conference and when they weren’t playing the top teams in their conference they were in every game.  I really think they have an edge in the trenches and this is exactly the type of matchup they win.  Maryland on the other hand we saw them lost big at home against Minnesota 31-10.  Granted Minnesota’s offense is probably a little more capable, but they are very similar to Boston College in a lot of ways.  BC was +7 in tackles for loss with 92, and +16 in sacks with 39 led by Harold Landry.  Maryland was -16 and -8.  They allowed 94 tackles for loss and 41 sacks.  Boston College is one of the best run defenses in the nation ranking 11th in yards per carry allowed.  That does not bode well for Maryland who can’t protect their QB.  I just don’t see how Maryland can score enough points in this game.  Boston College is 9th in the nation holding opponents 95.6 yards under their season average.  Maryland comes in 105th which should help Boston’s offense.

BC should be able to have balance here with a running game and Patrick Towles connecting on short plays which gives me confidence backing them.  Towles and this passing offence in wins has 9TD to 2 INT’s with a QB rating 58 points higher than their losses.  Since Maryland only forced 6 turnovers outside the UCF game while BC has forced 23.  I give a strong edge towards BC winning the turnover battle as well.  BC also has the better special teams.  So let’s highlight.  BC should have the edge in the trenches, the turnover battle, and they play in a tougher conference and had a tougher schedule. 

Dolphins +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

LA Tech -6.5 2.2% / Over 67.5 4.4% POD

Navy, has one of their worst defenses in a long time.  They rank 109th in yards per play allowed.  Meanwhile LA Tech comes in at 56th and has strengths on the run defense.  Navy of course breaking in a new QB and while I think he’s not as bad as this line movement we have seen I do think LA Tech’s offense is going to have too much punch in this game because they can do it in the air and on the ground.

Navy’s QB Zach Abey will be just fine and he actually settled into the Army game where he led them back in the second half despite all the mistakes they made.  I actually think Abey is a better runner than Will Worth and it shows in the short term, but overall Navy is going to have a hard time keeping pace in this one with one of the best offenses in the nation.  Ryan Higgins has 37 passing TD’s to just 8 interceptions and this offense is very explosive and Navy is 105th in the nation in explosive plays allowed.  Another thing to like about the total is neither team is good in the red zone allowing over 70% TD rates.  Navy has big #’s with 91.3% TD rate allowed over their last 4 games.  Now they face one of the best offenses in the nation with limited preparation time having to play in the AAC Championship, then the Arm/Navy game.  

Bears +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Packers +140 5.5% POD

Army +225 5.5% NCAAF POD

It's finally time for Army to win this game.  This is there best shot for a few different reasons.  The last two years they have come close and have had chance to win, but this year I think they finally get it done.

Navy was busy playing in a conference championship last week.  Something they have never had to do the week before the Army Navy game.  They lost the game to Temple as I played Temple on the money line.  Not only did they lose, but the loss was very costly.  They lose their QB Will Worth who is out for the season.  Worth took over for Tago Smith and was a senior.  Now Navy turns to a sophomore in Zach Abey.  That can't be good for a team that is used to having experience. 

Meanwhile Army has been licking their chops for this game.  This is Army's best team in probably 20 years.  This is a team that beat Temple 28-13 in the beginning of the year. Since 2011 Army has been -9 in turnover margin in the Navy/Army game and it has cost them winning the game at least two times as singificant under dogs.  I think they can win the turnover battle in this one with an experienced QB on Navy side and under a week to prepare it's just too much to ask for.  Navy also not forcing nearly as many turnovers as they have in years past as they have only had 13 this year (27 last year).  Their run defense giving up 4.77 yards per carry on the season compared to 3.88 for Army.  Army held them under 200 yards last year and I think they will be even better this year.

Cardinals -2.5 5.5% POD

Penn State +3.5 -115 5% NCAAF POD – buy ½ if need be.

There are several questions in this game for Penn State, but it all comes down to their ability to stop Wisconsin’s running game in my opinion.  That’s something they have done extremely well since they got healthy at linebacker.  Wisconsin really does not pose a threat in the passing game with their 2 QB system so it’s all on their running game and defense and I like the match up for Penn State here.  Since Jason Cabinda, Penn State’s linebacker came back this has been a shutdown defense.  In their last 5 games they have held opponents under 2.70 yards per carry 3 of which they held under 2 yards per carry.  We all know when Wisconsin can’t run the ball they struggle to win games.

Penn State simply cannot turn the ball over in this game and they are +9 in turnover margin in their last 8 games.  That’s the biggest story of this game.  If they do not turn the ball over they win this game.  I really like what McSorley has done at QB for Penn State.  He has the ability and skilled receivers to test Wisconsin’s defense deep which in reality opens up the running game a little bit even against Wisconsin.  Mcsorley also can use his feet to pick up third downs which is an area of weakness for Wisconsin at least in their game against Ohio State and in the red zone against Nebraska. 

Penn State has to get off the field on third down to keep their defense fresh in this game.  I see a field goal game either way and I love the edge Penn State has in special teams compared to Wisconsin who have struggled at times and rank 69th in special teams.  This is also the best offense that Wisconsin has faced all year as Penn State actually ranks 22nd in yards per play compared to 40th for Ohio State.  I just love the momentum this team has right now and the defense has enough veteran leadership to keep the game close and I like the edge Penn State has at QB with McSorley. 

Colorado +8 4.4% NCAAF POD

Statistically these two teams are pretty even, but Colorado has no doubt had a more challenging schedule in conference and out of conference.  Let’s start in conference play where their two most challenging games were @Stanford and @USC.  Washington got both of those games at home and also went 1-1.  In non-conference play Colorado played Colorado State #69 on neutral field, @Michigan #5 while Washington played Idaho #104, and Rutgers #112 at home.  That will certainly change the statistics a little bit and Colorado is right there in total yards, total passing and rushing yards and yards allowed.  There really is not much separating these two teams.  So let’s look at the match up.

Colorado is a blitz happy team ranking 19th in sack %.  Washington’s QB Jake Browning really is the story, but he had one atrocious game against USC, who has 50% of their sacks in the last 4 games as their defensive line really came alive down the stretch due to their line getting more action.  The only other team that Washington played with a solid front seven was Utah and Utah definitely gave them fits in their 31-24 victory.  Colorado is a better version of Utah and their secondary has two NFL Draft picks in Tedric Thompson and Chidobe Awuzie which should really frustrate Jake Browning who I think will make a mistake.  After all he is only a sophomore, and this is the #1 DB havoc rate in the country that he has to face.  Defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt has been the main reason Colorado has been resurgent and has forced a turnover in 25 straight games.

Colorado’s offense is also very under the radar in this match up and I think they will take it personally.  Having a senior QB in Sefo Liufau who can also run the ball is a huge advantage here.  This team had Michigan on the ropse before Liufau had to leave that game.  There is evidence that Washington will struggle against a team with a running QB.  They gave up 24 points to Utah with Troy Williams rushing for 30 yards on only 9 carries and Arizona scored 28 points with Brandon Dawkins rushing for 2 TD’s and 176 yards.  I think that’s going to be the story in this game is how Liufau plays and how Colorado’s defense can impact Browning.  I like both match ups for Colorado and obviously the last time Washington was in the top 4 they could not handle the pressure.

Much more pressure on Washington here and they need a win and I don’t know that they get it here. 

PANTHERS +3.5 5.5% POD

Kentucky +26 4.4% NCAAF POD

This Kentucky offense is playing extremely well right now and that’s because their head coach is finally playing to the team’s strengths which are running the ball.  Last year they only ran the ball 50% of the time, and this year they are at 63% which has resulted in a lethal duo combination at RB and two 1,000 yard rushers.  I think they will have success here against Louisville who is in a major flat spot after their college football playoff dreams have been crushed.

Louisville also has played 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense, Florida State.  So their run defense in my opinion is very misleading.  Kentucky has never been this big of an underdog in this rivalry game and I think the game will be much closer.  Kentucky also remembers being up 24-7 at the half last year and blowing that game so do not be surprised if we see them with a shot to win this game late. 

Texas -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

We know we are going to get Texas players best efforts and when that happens they usually exceed Vegas expectations.  Charlie Strong likely let go after this game, but the players are not too happy.  This is as big of a win one for the gipper situation that I remember seeing in a while.  Here are some player quotes:

“Letting this man go is equivalent to losing a Father.  He has done wonders for all the players on the team and we want him to continue that.”

“The main reason we came to UT was because of Coach Strong’s plan for us to succeed and become a better man, now y’all take him away.”

TCU, has had highs and lows this season, but have dramatically underperformed this year.  Gary Patterson, just suffered his biggest loss at home in 13 years, he also went 0-2 ATS off byes this year he had been 13-0 ATS over his previous 13 so a lot going wrong for this team.  Look I simply can’t trust Kenny Hill at QB for TCU, and their passing defense is a major issue which is something QB Shane Buechele and Texas are capable of taking advantage of in this offense.  Texas has a very balanced offense and they should put up a ton of points in this one at least 40 in my opinion.

Ravens +7.5 5.5% POD +300 2% BONUS

Hawaii -3 5.5% NCAAF POD

Hawaii has been pretty good in conference play on the road beating San Jose State and Air force before losing badly to San Diego State, but who doesn’t?  Hawaii, facing a bad defense in Fresno State who ranks 97th in yards per play allowed.  Hawaii vs. bad teams like that have been able to put up 31+ points on a regular basis and that gives them a tremendous edge in this game considering how bad Fresno State’s offense has been which is non-existent.  They topped 30 points 1 time all year against an FBS opponent and lost the game.

This is a rivalry game, but Hawaii I feel is better than their record when you consider their losses are against Cal, Arizona, San Diego State, Boise State, and a 3 point loss against UNLV.  Add in all of the travel disadvantages this team has and I think they are having a pretty good year.  I think they can still get into a bowl game at 6-7 and I’m sure they have that on their mind.  

Hawaii will be able to run the ball in this one especially since they had 7+ yards per carry at Boise State.  Dru Brown, a mobile QB also should give Fresno issues.  Fresno State’s defense has allowed 200+ rushing yards in every game this season and 23 rushing TD’s.  Their pass defense has not been any better allowing 20 TD’s to just 3 interceptions.  Hawaii’s main issues when they lose is the fact that they turn the ball over.  They are -12 alone in their last 3 games, but Fresno has forced just 6 turnovers all year long.  Fresno has not shown me any signs of improvement and this is by far the worst offense that Hawaii’s defense has faced.  Hawaii’s defense has had quite the stretch facing 9 of their 11 opponents who are in the top 60 in yards per play offense, 6 in the top 40.   The other 2 they held to 17 points each which is an encouraging sign for this game.  To put that into perspective Fresno has faced 1 POWER 5 opponent, Hawaii has faced 3 + Boise State, and they have faced just 3 teams in the top 40 in yards per play offense.

TEXANS +120 5.5% POD 

Arkansas +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

The Tigers have not played particularly well in the previous six contests following a defeat against Alabama. LSU has won four of the six games, but struggled in knocking off Troy (2008), Louisiana Tech (2009) and Mississippi State (2012).

The Tigers did comfortably beat Texas A&M 34-10 in 2013. However, LSU had the benefit of an open date after losing to the Tide that year. Arkansas whipped LSU the past two seasons by scores of 17-0 and 31-14 – the latter loss coming in Tiger Stadium.

I don’t really understand this spread other than the fact that LSU has a top 10 rushing offense and Arkansas has one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation and in the SEC.  However, Arkansas really was banged up before their bye.  Against Florida last week, a run first team they managed to hold them to 14 rushing yards.  The defense is healthy and was only on the field for 20 minutes last week and 51 total plays compared to the LSU’s defense which was on the field for 34 minutes and 70 plays.  They also played in a very physical game, and I expect a major hang over for this team and their head coach Ed Orgeron, who is likely out after the season.  LSU, not much to play for here with 3 losses other than maybe revenge against Arkansas, but I still think Arkansas has too good of an offense to lose by more than a TD.

A couple of other things here.  LSU struggled the last two years to run the ball against Arkansas with 59 rushing yards, and 36 rushing yards.  Arkansas got healthy last week, and againt his week they get another opportunity to play in their base defense, the 4-3 and allow their linebackers to make the plays.  They don’t have a big threat in LSU’s passing game, much like last week and that should give them good results to keep this game close.  On flip side LSU’s defense will have their hands full.  Arkansas has a balanced attack, and the running game has gotten much better since they moved some things on the offensive line.  This is a team with serious weapons in the receiving corps and Austin Allen is doing a good job of getting the ball to all of them who are mostly upper classmen playing in their last game at home!  This offense put up 30 points against Alabama’s defense despite 5 turnovers.  Arkansas has cleaned up the turnovers and have actually forced 12 turnovers in 6 home games meanwhile LSU’s defense as good as it is has forced only 12 turnovers all year.

At the end of the day these teams are pretty even, and we are still catching value off Arkansas getting dominated by Auburn just a few weeks ago, but this is a different Arkansas team that is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 November games which includes 8-2 ATS under their head coach Bielema. 

Iowa +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / Iowa +255 1% bonus

Penn State can win out and get into the college football playoff!  That’s not happening and now that they are ranked #12 they have a target on their back and this line is extremely inflated for unjust reasons.  First of all it started with a 3 point win over Minnesota a weaker version of Iowa in reality.  In that game Penn State was +2 total yards, -12 in first downs, -13.5 minutes in time of possession, but they got a key turnover that gave them the win.  Against Maryland they were simply dominant +254 yards, but they still allowed 4.5 yards per carry and were fortunate when Perry Hills, Maryland’s senior QB left very early in that game.  Against Ohio State it was the miracle 60 yard blocked field goal returned for a TD as Ohio State was trying to go up by 7.  Ohio State dominated time of possession 37 minutes to 22 in that game and were coming off a very tough physical game at Wisconsin.  You still have to give them credit for that win, and then they go on the road and beat Purdue 62-24 and now the entire country is giving them credit, but it was a 17-17 game at the half.  Purdue, a very one dimensional offense turned the ball over 4 times and the game was much closer than what the final said.  Purdue also held a significant edge in time of possession 35 to 25 and held Penn State to 2-9 on third down, but they could not stop Saquan Barkley.

I believe Iowa can stop Barkley and I believe this spread is very much inflated.  Iowa coming in off a bye after losing to Wisconsin.  Iowa still has a ton to play for including a shot at the Big Ten Championship game if they win out.  Iowa’s head coach Kirk Ferentz is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS the last 6 times he is off a bye in the regular season.  The key is run the ball and stop the run, and I believe they can do both here.  First of all Penn State has allowed 6 of 8 opponents to run for 150 or more yards.  Iowa is 26-2 since the 2013 season when they are able to run for over 150+ yards which includes a 5-0 record this season.  While I think their run defense may have some issues with Barkley the extra time to prepare with definitely help, and it’s not like Penn State is blowing opponents out unless they are significantly winning the TO margin, and Iowa has turned the ball over just 5 times all year.  Penn State also has been a big play team this year, and Iowa’s defense is very consistent and good defending big plays. 

Penn State has actually been terrible on third down they were 2-9 against Purdue.  Purdue was allowing opponents at home to convert on 53% of their third downs.  Penn State just 25% on the year, 24% in conference play on third downs and that has transitioned over to their red zone performance of 54% TD’s.  Their defense has also struggled allowing 44% conversions on third down and 63.33% TD’s in red zone play.  Iowa on the other hand has been better on offense and defense across the board in red zone and third down efficiency which is a big key in a close game like this and that’s why I think Iowa is able to pull the upset.  All the pressure on Penn State now that they are ranked #12 with a path to the college football playoff, but I think Iowa has a big head coaching edge in this one. I think you see a huge game from Akrum Wadley

Miami -1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I am going to take the Hurricanes as my top play this week as I really think they are getting a lot of value despite losing 3 games in a row.  They faced three teams ranked in the top 25 and should have beaten Florida State a hard game to come off of with a loss for this program, but things are trending in the right direction as Mark Richt has this team playing defense and they are clearly much improved.  They have had a much more challenging schedule than Notre Dame has and the ACC is arguably the best conference in the nation.  Notre Dame has yet to play a defense that ranks in the top 50 in rushing and passing defense, and every time they have faced a top 50 run or pass defense they have lost.  Miami ranks 32nd vs. the run and 13th vs. the pass and will give Notre Dame Issues on Saturday.

On the flip side Miami has faced three teams who had a top 50 run defense and pass defense.  5 of their 6 opponents have been ranked in the top 50 in pass defense, and Brad Kaaya, the senior QB is still putting up good numbers.  Now he gets to face Notre Dame how ranks 108th in adjusted pass defense, a team that simply can’t get to the QB they have 6 sacks on the season and are -13 in sacks compare that with Miami who is +7 and has 22 sacks on the season.  Miami also +38 in tackles for loss compared to Notre Dame who is -7 in tackles for loss.  I was shocked to see Stanford come in and win their game 2 weeks ago without Christina McCaffrey and no QB, but Stanford did it they averaged 4.40 yards per carry on this defense and got out with a win.  The next week they went home and put up 5 points against Colorado.

Offensively, Miami in adjusted offensive rankings are 58th running, and 29th passing.  Notre Dame has faced 5 teams in the top 70 in adjusted passing offense.  Taking out the NC State game because they played in a hurricane this defense has allowed 39 points per game, and none of those teams were ranked as highly as Miami, and only Texas had somewhat of a balanced attack and they put up 50 points and clearly don’t have the defense that Miami has.  On the flip side, Miami’s defense has faced a lot of top offenses, 3 of which have top 50 run and pass offenses.  Notre Dame surprisingly doesn’t have either as they rank 73rd in rushing and 78th in passing.  The only thing Notre Dame has going for them is the fact that they are coming off a bye, but Miami off extra rest here too, and Miami has played well on the road.

Dolphins +125 5.5% NFL POD

I will take the Dolphins on the money line here as our top play.  I don't trust the Bills in this spot laying points to a divisional opponent for the first time since 2008 and they have a big game next week against the Patriots.  Lesean McCoy is questionable for this game with the hamstring.  Even if he's a go he won't be 100% as hamstring injuries are very difficult to over come in a few days.  Too much value on the home team here as the Bills were struggling last week against the 49ers halfway through the third quarter a week ago and cruised to a misleading win. 

TCU +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD – buy the hook if you want, but I think TCU wins outright +210 for another 1%

I’m all over TCU and I am even comfortable with them at +6 as I think they may even get the outright upset.  Gary Paterson is 12-1 straight up, and 13-0 ATS after a bye week.  The key difference for them after a bye week is defense.  They allowed just 10 points and a 41% completion rate to West Virginia last year following their bye week in the 40-10 victory.  This TCU team is flying under the radar right now in my opinion.  West Virginia is getting far too much credit for their win against Texas Tech.  Patrick Maholmes is definitely injured and that’s a big reason why they held them to 17 points.  The week before they were lucky to beat Kansas State at home.  Now in comes another great coach and I think TCU could pull the upset.

TCU getting a ton of value here because the last memory everyone has of them is they nearly lost to Kansas.  They struggled last year against Kansas (winning 23-17) and the following week they went on the road to face Oklahoma and lost by 1 point without their star QB and WR.  The game against Kansas really does not concern me here.  TCU is the first team that West Virginia has faced with an offense that can beat you running the ball and passing the ball. Kenny Hill gets plenty of shit, but he’s got 2,142 yards passing in 6 games already and he’s also a threat to run.  West Virginia’s defense has shown vulnerabilities vs. the run this year as well as the pass.  People forget this team replaced 9 defensive starters when the season began.  They haven’t faced any dominating offenses in my opinion and their own offense is nothing to get excited about.

West Virginia’s key last year in their wins vs. losses was Skyler Howard.  In wins they had a 153 QB rating and in losses a 102 QB rating.  Howard has not impressed me he has 3 TD and 3 INT’s vs. FBS opponents this year.  He looked great against Youngstown State.  TCU can bring a pass rush like nobody else he’s seen this year.  TCU ranks 22nd in sack %, and they haven’t faced a top 60 unit.  This defense held him to 41% completion rating and 160 yards passing with a 78 QB rating (a season low).  Howard has faced some of the worst pass defenses in the nation.  TCU is better than their ranking shows, they have a good pass rush, and they have had to face some pretty elite passing offenses in Arkansas and Oklahoma whom in my opinion are both top 25 teams.  At the end of the day without factoring in strength of schedule I have this game as a 29-28 in favor for West Virginia.  I think TCU has an excellent shot at pulling the upset even though they are on the road.  They have an edge in coaching and have owned this match up and off a bye you can’t go wrong backing Gary Paterson. West Virginia often gets inflated lines after they look good and they are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a game of 450 + total yards in their previous game.

Nebraska -3 5.5% play

Thanks for the line movement here.  Mike Riley following a bye week during the regular season going back to 2003 with Oregon State is 16-8 ATS and has had many major upsets as a big dog.  He’s not an underdog in this game, but I really don’t see or understand the spread in this game.  Indiana played well at Ohio State, but that win over Michigan State at home looks a lot worse after Michigan State got trucked by BYU last week in embarrassing fashion.  I have this game at 31-22 in favor of Nebraska and that does not factor in the match up advantages and extra preparation they have going into this game.

Both teams wants to establish the run and on the surface it looks like Indiana is better at stopping the run where Nebraska has had troubles, but in reality that’s not true.  Nebraska’s game against Oregon has really inflated some of their defensive rankings.  Nebraska has held everyone else in check who doesn’t have a running QB.  As Oregon’s QB Dakota Prukop had 20 rushes for 97 yards in that game.  Indiana’s Richard Lagow has -31 yards on the season.  Nebraska’s pass defense is also very solid so far this year 3TD’s and 9 interceptions.

For Nebraska I think they can run the ball in this game.  Armstrong is having a very good year passing the ball and not turning it over like he has in the past and he’s got 14 total touch downs with 2 interceptions.  5 of those TD’s have come on the ground has he has 293 yards rushing.  That can be a real problem for Indiana’s defense which struggled against JT Barret a week ago who had 137 yards rushing against them.  Armstrong in reality is very similar to Barret in a lot of ways, but probably has a bigger arm.  Nebraska probably a little more aggressive in down the field passes which should open things up for the Huskers in this one.

Nebraska advantage in the turnover margin which is something I definitely look at despite the bad luck we have had.  Indiana has been lucky recovering fumbles at 61.5%, but that certainly is due to change.  Their QB Lagow has already thrown 7 interceptions and I can’t see how Nebraska won’t have 1 or 2 in this game.  They are a ball hawking defense that has had time to study tendencies of this QB and offense.  Nebraska also has advantages in 3rd down offense and defense, and red zone offense and defense, penalties, net tackles for loss at +7 compared to -7, and sacks +8 to -1.  Indiana also has not been great with their place kicker.  All in all Nebraska a ton to play for here.  Indiana getting too much credit for how they beat Michigan State and played within the number against Ohio State.  Nebraska has outscored opponents 78-6 in the 4th quarter.  I expect them to get off to a fast start in this game off the bye as Indiana has played 3 physical teams in a row.

South Carolina +7 5.5 %NCAAF POD

This game takes place on Sunday and will be a top play for me.  I really like South Carolina after being on Georgia a week ago at home against Tennessee as our top play.  Georgia struggled big time on the road this year beating Missouri luckily, and getting blown out at Ole Miss.  Now their routines are a bit messed up because of the schedule change and they are coming off a devastating season changing loss to Tennessee where their were plenty of mental break downs.  Bettors look at that score and see Georgia being competitive against a top 10 team, but Tennessee was decimated by injuries on their defense and benched their best RB in that game. 

I’m also not impressed with how Kirby Smart handled that game in the 4th quarter.  Not that Will Muschamp is a great coach or anything, but at least I know he’s going to have his team defensively prepared.  I’ll back a solid defense any day of the week at home against an offense that does not blow you away and you are giving me 7 points. 

I also really do not understand the notion that Georgia will dominate in the trenches as I have read by some Georgia bloggers or Georgia fans.  They can’t protect their QB ranking 105th in protection rate, and they are 114th at getting to the QB.  The offensive line has really struggled this season.  I get Nick Chubb is coming back, but he’s not 100%, and the run defenses this team has faced have been awful.  They’ve faced an FCS opponent, 107th, 93rd, 104th, and then Tennessee who ranks 43rd in run defense, but was missing 2 LB’s and their best player in the secondary.  On the flip side South Carolina has struggled at times on defense, but have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses for an average rank of 54.4.  I thought they did a pretty good job against A&M who ranks 2nd in YPC holding them under their season average and they have a running QB who had 84 yards rushing.  The Gamecocks certainly do not need to worry about Jacob Eason taking off and running here.

On the flip side Georgia has not stopped the run they rank 73rd so where is the advantage?  Especially when you consider they have faced an average rushing offense ranked 64.75 + an FCS foe.  That’s much higher than the strength of schedule South Carolina faced of 54.4.  South Carolina will mix in two QB’s in this one and I think they can run the ball better than they have going up against this defense.  So far they have faced 2 top 50 running defenses and that has been the reason they have struggled to run the ball at times.  Being at home against a run defense that has holes should allow South Carolina to run.  After all they have faced 5 FBS opponents with an average run defense of 63.2 compared to Georgia’s 86.75.

Flip over to the passing game and there is no doubt Georgia has the edge in terms of talent.  Jacob Eason could be a star in this league, but they certainly do not trust him and he is prone to make mistakes.  South Carolina has a better pass defense than Georgia to this point.  Allowing 4 passing TD’s and 5 Interceptions and just 5.9 yards per attempt.  South Carolina should take some deep shots if they are smart as Georgia has had all kinds of mental break downs in their secondary.  The Gamecocks get back 2 WR that were out last week in Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards to play critical roles.  South Carolina should also have the time to throw and when they have SR. QB Perry Orth in there I give them a small edge. 

X-factor if you want to call it that.  South Carolina is very tough to score on in the red zone.  Allowing 38% TD rate when teams get there compared to Georgia’s 70%.  I think Georgia will have a hard time scoring points to be honest and they don’t trust their kicker who is 4-9 this year.  It was the reason we almost lost ATS last week. 

Lions +4 5.5% POD

Virginia Tech +1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather is critical here, but looks like it will be alright for the game to happen with 15mph winds and some rain.  Rain, no rain, wind no wind I think the Hokies are the better team here.  There lone loss against Tennessee was extremely misleading and I actually think the forecast benefits them in this game.

Virginia Tech likes to run the ball 63% of the time, and North Carolina likes to run the ball just 40% of the time good for 117th in the county.  The problem is the Tarheels can’t stop the run ranking 106th.  Virginia Tech has not faced a run defense this bad.  They have been able to efficiently move the ball on every single team including 200+ yards rushing against Boston College who is ranked 4th in running defense from a yards per carry perspective.  Bottom line is Virginia Tech can control this game with Travon McMillian, and Marshawn Williams, and some runs by their QB Jerod Evans who at this point looks like a better version of Deondre Francois.

Evans has 13 TD’s to 1 INT is completing 67% of his passes and had good games against good defenses in Tennessee and Boston College.  Tennessee before Cam Sutton got injured.  North Carolina will have their hands full especially when you consider the Hokies come off a bye while North Carolina comes off a very big win over Florida State in dramatic fashion.  Justin Fuente a very good coach and it shows by the way he is running this offense playing to its strengths.  Bud Foster the defensive coordinator for years still here running a top 20 defense.  Fuente off a bye last year with Memphis upset Ole Miss as a double digit under dog.

North Carolina a top offense arguably the best this Virginia Tech defense has faced.  However, the weather does not bode well for the passing game which is their strength behind Mitch Tribusky.  Granted they have looked unstoppable which should get them a lot of public money backing them, but not us.  Tribusky has faced passing defenses ranked 92nd, 120th, 119th, and 114th.  Now he faces Virginia Tech ranked 26th and if they want to run the ball here they rank 22nd in run defense.  Elijah Hood is a little banged up, but should play, but we have seen North Carolina be stopped on the ground before against Pitt who held them to 18 yards on 22 carries.  Pitt ranks 7th in run defense, but 119th in opposing QB rating.  My point is that Virginia Tech is the most complete team that North Carolina has faced so far this season.  They can run, they can pass, they can play defense against the run.  They can play defense against the pass.  The only thing that has cost them in the past is their turnover issues.  They are -2 on the season with 9 fumbles lost in their first 2 games, but they cleaned that up with 0 lost in their last 2 games.  Actually they did not even fumble it against East Carolina or Boston College.

Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 5.5% NFL POD Tampa lost to the Rams last week, but arguably they have had one of the tougher schedules. Denver has probably exceeded everyone’s expectations while the Bucs who many thought were going to be great have struggled. This is a game I see the Bucs winning outright. I think their offense should have enough success as Denver is 25th in rushing yards per carry allowed, Tampa is actually 8th. If I told you Tampa had the better run defense this year I think you would be surprised. This is also a tough travel spot for Denver coming from Denver down to Tampa Bay. If I told you Denver was 30th in third down defense you would also probably be shocked. Tampa is actually 12th in third down defense.

Georgia +3.5 5.5% POD

Tennessee has won and covered both of their big games this year where College Game Day covered and the public remembers that.  Tennessee already coming into the season was getting a lot of hype, and they finally looked good last week, but against a Florida team dealing with their own issues on the road.  Tennessee has struggled and I thought they should have lost the week against Virginia Tech.  I was extremely nervous with my teaser last week backing Tennessee, but they won the game arguably the biggest game under Butch Davis which is not saying much.  You beat a team you were supposed to as more than a TD favorite.

Georgia on the other hand has had a tough start to the season, but there are hidden signs that this team is better or at least more balanced and harder to prepare for.  Georgia took an ass whooping last week against Ole Miss who everyone sees sitting at 2-2, but make no mistakes about it Ole Miss is a Top 10 team under Hugh Freeze.  Georgia returning home for their first home game is just what the doctor ordered.  Tennessee is well aware they are a road favorite and they also have a showdown the following week against Texas A&M.  I just don’t trust Davis in this spot as Tennessee is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS win.  This is a huge hang over spot, but even if Tennessee isn’t hung over they should struggle to win this game never mind cover 3.5 points.

With or without Nick Chubb I think Georgia is in good shape they are getting good production out of Brian Herrien and Sony Michel.  This is just the second time that Georgia has been a home dog in 10 years.  I think to win they have to stop the run and last time I checked Kirby Smart has been very good at defending the run.  Georgia’s defense has struggled a couple times vs. the run this season, but that was against teams that had balance with dangerous passing games.  North Carolina is a true balanced team and Mitch Trubisky is completing 74.5% of his passes has 10 TD’s and 0 INT’s.  Ole Miss Chad Kelly is probably the best QB in the country right now.  Josh Dobbs, although a very good running QB can not throw the ball.  He’s completing 57% of his passes and yes I saw the drops from a tight team in the first half, but his balls were off the mark time and time again. 

Dobbs completed just 59% of his passes a year ago and just 6.7 yards per attempt.  Tennessee is far from a big pass offense which is where Georgia is having issues right now.  Butch Davis does not seem smart enough to take advantage and probably doesn’t feel like he has to with this strong running game.  They run the ball 60% of the time and 65% on the road.  I see Georgia’s defense really holding them in check in this one and I think Georgia’s offense could have their best day of the season.

Jacob Eason at home for the first time.  He’s shown signs of brilliance against very good defenses in Ole Miss and Missouri on the road.  He’s got a big arm and we have seen in the last 3 games Tennessee’s secondary has had issues allowing 5 TD’s to just 1 interception and 740 yards passing.  Tennessee’s secondary also without their star player in Cam Sutton who will miss this game they could also be without Jalen-Reeves Maybin. 

Georgia has to have revenge on their mind here and Nick Chubb may want to play more than we realize when he got hurt in this game last year.  Georgia’s offense is looking better on third down on both sides of the ball against a tough schedule to start the year.  Meanwhile Tennessee has actually looked worse in third down offense and defense compared with last year.  In a tight game like this I will take the home dog every time.

Jaguars +1 5.5% POD
The Ravens coming into this game at 2-0, but who have they beat? They rallied a week ago in a division game to beat the lowly Clevland Browns. In week 1 they defeated the Buffalo Bills who have already fired their offensive coordinator. Jaguars lost last week at San Diego which for a young team was a tough trip, but coming back home at 0-2 I think there is a lot of value on this team. Jaguars actually out gained both of their opponents despite going 0-2, and there is this thought that the Jaguars are the same old Jaguars. I'm sure the public will be rushing to play the Ravens in this one.

Panthers -1 / TB Bucs +1 4.4% Teaser
This is a horrible situation for the Vikings to travel to after they beat the Packers in prime-time. They lose 2 more key players in their running back Peterson and tackle Matt Kalil. Two huge loses that I'm not sure this Vikings team can over come. The Panthers meanwhile have shown some weaknesses in their secondary, but I don't see the Vikings taking advantage. Sam Bradford played well last week, but asking him to win on the road is too much to ask. Panthers 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

For the Bucs, Jameis Winston coming back home off the worst game of his career in the blow out loss at Arizona. That's the story with Winston though he's hot and cold, and I'm expecting a huge bounce back week against the Rams who beat the Seahawks in our POD last week. Expecting them to struggle on the road. The Rams are a bad offensive team, and the Tampa Bay Bucs can be explosive at times under Winston. I see a victory by a TD. The Rams playing in an early game on the road in the humidity of Tampa Bay will be a challenge.

Arkansas +6.5 5.5% POD / Arkansas +210 1% play

This game will be played at Cowboys Stadium again, and honestly there really is not a lot separating these two teams.  The game of the year line had this game as a pickem, but we are getting 6.5 points due to the success of Texas A&M over two good teams in UCLA & Auburn.  However, I am more impressed with Arkansas win over TCU on the road.

This game went to OT the last two years, and I expect it to be another close game.  Texas A&M’s strength of rushing the passer won’t show up as much in this game as Arkansas loves to pound the rock, but the play of Austin Allen has been exceptional so far this year.  He faced a good TCU defense on the road and had 3 TD’s 0 INT’s.  He’s got a very experienced WR group in seniors Keon Hatcher and Drew Morgan and throw in TE Jeremy Sprinkle and you can see why this team is having success in the red zone that Texas A&M is not.

A&M has struggled on third downs, and in the red zone converting drives into TD’s.  Arkansas defense is very under rated.  They held TCU to 7 points after 3 quarters on the road.  Trevor Knight has been a nice story for A&M at QB, but he’s only completing 52.9% of his passes converting 30% on third down and less than 50% TD’s in the red zone.  Knight has not shown a threat to stretch the field and he goes up against a very good pass defense in Arkansas who have already been tested by TCU.

Arkansas has proven they can run the ball in this series covering more than 200 yards in both OT loses.  I expect the same thing, and I like Arkansas defense better this year, I like their receivers better and they have an experienced offensive line although they are shuffling some things around.  This is a clear game that Arkansas circled before the season and a critical SEC West showdown.  I think Bielema is a little bit of a better coach and he’s an impressive 10-1-1 ATS as a dog with Arkansas with 6 outright upsets.  A&M struggled to stop Auburn’s running game which is a red flag for me considering Arkansas has the threat of the passing game.