[b]Take LA Monroe -1 4.5 DIME POD[/b]
I'm going with another Sun Belt surprise with LA Monroe to take care of the Mean green who are a Monet, not what they appear after last weeks 68-49 win over Western Kentucky. At times the offense has been able to score, but Western Kentucky is ranked 108th in offense and 120th on defense. This team does not compare to LA Monroe a team that played right with the top teams of the conference. @ Troy the Warhawks were out gained by just 32 yards while North Texas also at Troy were out gained by 302 yards. It's good that the Mean Green were able to take some of their frustration out last week, but it will be a different going up against the Warhawks who are ranked 50th in offense and 64th in defense including 16th against the run. North Texas can't play defense, and LA Monroe can. Actually LA Monroe out gained Kentucky @ Kentucky a few weeks back by 47 points. Vegas is over exaggerating the line based on 68 points North Texas put up. Take the small road chalk and roll with another POD winner.

Take Seahawks +10 (4-Dime play)
Seahawks off the bye and are as healthy as they have been all season long. Trufant back at CB, and Hassleback back at QB. Look for the Seahawks to take this one outright possibly. Just because the Cowboys looked good last week does not mean they are back quite yet. The Seahawks have a solid core of receivers, and some linebackers that should be able to contain the run enough. Seahawks are coming off the bye and off a very bad loss the fact that they are getting double digits to me is a little silly. This was a team I had as a sleeper to win the NFC West while that does not look likely they still dominated the Jaguars 41-0 just two weeks ago how quickly we forget. Speaking of a short term memory the Cowboys are the same team that let the Chiefs hang around. Look for the Seahawks to give Tony Romo some problems on Sunday.

write up to come

Take South Florida +3.5 (3.5 Dime POD)
I'm going with South Florida which may surprise a few people considering South Florida got exposed the last two games in the Big East after opening up 5-0 on the season with two straight losses to Pitt and Cinci. While I do think West Virginia fits into the top 3 teams in the Big East along with Pitt and Cinci they are a distant third. I don't see the balanced attack as they are ranked 47th in passing, but they have faced an average 70th ranked pass defense. Tonight they'll face South Florida's 25th ranked passing defense. In the last two games where South Florida got beat they faced the 10th and 57th ranked passing offense, but I think Pitt is much more balanced than West Virginia as Stull is well under rated at QB for Pitt. South Florida has the speed on defense to stop Noel Devine as they have in the past and George Selvie will spend a lot of time in the backfield on Friday night. It's a home game that is a tough environment to play in for West Virginia. Their pass defense will leave the door open for red shirt freshmen B.J. Daniels to come back with a strong effort. As they played 43rd and 54th ranked pass defense on Friday night they will face the 88th ranked pass defense that has played against bad passing attacks ranked 74th. I think South Florida should be able to move the ball enough to get the points they need to cover the spread and win this game outright. If Uconn's Cody Endres can throw for 378 yard I think B.J. Daniels can have a successful night as well.

Believe it or not it appears the strength of schedule is on South Florida's side they have played much tougher offenses an overall average rank of 58th, and their defense ranks 27th overall while West Virginia has benefited from facing an overall 76th ranked offense and has the 36th ranked defense. While their rushing defense is solid they have been exposed in the air particularly on crossing routes. Both teams won in similar fashion @ Syracuse 34-13 for West Virginia and 34-20 for South Florida. Again I just see these two teams as very close to even. The key will be to have a spy on Noel Devine because he changed the game against Uconn with a 177 yards in the second half last week to give them the 28-24 win. South Florida has stopped him before and I think they'll keep him under tap enough to get stops on defense. Thus being at home for South florida on a Friday night will hold a major advantage in my eyes.

Take Redskins +9 4-Dime NFL POD
It's been a curious NFL start for me never have I seen more big favorites cover along with the public cashing in at the windows. Vegas got burned yesterday once again, but I think they'll make up for it tonight with the Redskins.

Monday night football will be an opportunity for the Redskins to have a turning point in their season and I'm sure that is what the coaches will be selling this team when they face the Eagles on Monday night. Jim Zorn lost his play calling duties to Sherm Lewis who has been with the team for just 3 weeks, and will now make the play calls, but he did it for years with the Lions, and I don't anticipate this being an issue. Will it improve the offense? Well it can't hurt as the Redskins are in the bottom of the league at nearly every category. Monday they will face a banged up Eagles team who are just beaten up front on their offensive line where you have back ups starting for starters and that is what led to the Eagles poor play out in Oakland as the Raiders defensive front man handled them.

Monday we have a similar match up a Redskins defense that is under rated and ranked 3rd against the pass something the Eagles like to do, and the Redskins have the personnel up front to stop the run as well even though the Eagles don't like to run much. They have always played the Eagles well and are actually 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings here. This is a lot of points to be giving a home dog on Monday night football and I'm taking the bait. Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. team with a losing record and their front 7 is soft. They were so desperate they made a trade for aging Will Witherspoon and signed Jeremiah Trotter back this week. They are missing both of their DE including MLB Omar Gaither. Look for the Redskins to have an advantage up front and show the ability to run the ball with Portis and Betts. Redskins are 6th in points allowed this one stays low scoring as the Redskins get a shot to win at the end.

Take Chiefs +6 buy hook -120 4-Dime POD + Chiefs money line at +204 1-dime bonus
Ask the Cowboys if these Chiefs are easy to beat at home. Or I think the Chargers already know as they beat the Chiefs twice last year each time by just one point. I think the Chiefs remember that and they'll finally get their revenge here on Sunday going up against the Chargers who looked awful against the Broncos and will be on short rest coming over from the West Coast in what will be a 10am game in reality for them with the time change.

KC has already played some quality opponents in the Cowboys, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles and an impressive win in Washington last week really showed a lot in terms of momentum. I believe they take that momentum into this game. The Dog is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings between these two teams. Kansas City will have the better defense on Sunday as the Chargers can't seem to get any kind of a pass rush which has led to their 23rd overall ranked defense. They will face a poor offense, but look for the Chiefs to continue to improve as the playbook gets opened up more and more. Remember Cassell is still getting used to playing with his team mates and last week was a pretty good sign. I really look for them back at home to have a big game.

Take Tennessee +14.5 -105 (4.5 Dime POD) (1-5scale)
Very close to a 5-dime play this weekend, but we'll go with the 4.5Dime play. I really like this play a lot as 69% of the public is backing Alabama at home and the line that opened at -16 has moved down to 14.5. First of all I still have not been impressed with Alabama's offense behind Mark Ingram. There is going to be a game where they are going to have to prove that they can throw the ball and I think this might be that game. They have faced an average 62nd ranked defensive attack Alabama has. That includes an average rush defense of 86th which has gotten them their 9th nation rushing offense rank. Don't get me wrong this offensive line and running game is as good as they come, but let's not get carried away that your QB is still going to have to win games and I like McElroy, but just not here against Tennessee off a bye. You give Monte Kiffin an extra week to prepare defensively he's going to come with an attack that will create problems.

The defense of Tennesse has been great, and in their last game the offense exploded against a good Georgia team. In my opinion Tennessee has had a much tougher schedule and have played better defenses and should be able to move the ball better than South Carolina and Mississippi did the last two weeks. Tenn comes in with the 48th ranked offense, better rankings than both South Carolina and Miss who really played fine defensive games against Alabama and really stayed in the game despite losing by 2 TD in each. I really like Tenn to do what both those teams could not and this game should be decided by a TD or a Field Goal in my opinion.

The key to the game. It's easy to say this is the key to the game because Alabama's pass rush is the best in the country and Tennessee has done a great job protecting their QB Crompton. If they can continue the momentum they had against Georgia they could get the upset and crush Alabama's national championship dreams. Crompton has really come alive with 200+ yards passing in each of his last three games including 8TD and 2 INT. Look for Tennessee to have a game plan for Ingram as they are ranked 32nd in rush defense and third in the SEC while Alabama is ranked 9th and 3rd in the SEC in rushing offense, but as I mentioned Alabama has faced nobody that can stop the run like Tennessee can. Here are the numbers in terms of defensive rushing ranks nationally for Alabama opponents, 76, 116, 96, 69, 102, 72, 74. A defensive game is what this will be and more than 2 TDs is just way too much to give a solid defense coming off the bye trying to make statements under first year head coach Lane Kiffin and his father an all time great defensive coordinator in Monte Kiffin.

Take North Carolina -2.5 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
I'll start by saying this 61% of the public over 45 sportsbooks combined are on Florida State which opened up at +2 and are now finding themselves at +2.5 and +3 in some places.

This match up comes down to UNC's defense vs. the offense of Florida State which is their passing game. This is the strength of the Tar Heels the pass defense ranked #1 in the nation. In FSU's defense the Tar heels have played an average passing attack ranked 90th. FSU on the other hand with a #13 ranked passing offense behind Christian Ponder have faced an average pass defense of 54th. Hands down this will be their most difficult game yet in my opinion because before this game they have not faced a passing defense that is this good with a solid defensive line led by two 300+lb interior linemen for the Tar Heels. Additionally UNC is led by DE Robert Quinn who already has 7 sacks this year and should create some troubles for Florida State's undersized offensive line. This team has had troubles int he past with large and physical defensive fronts and the same will be true tonight. Now if anything the one dimensional FSU offense is more of a fraud than the UNC's defense that has returned 9 starters from last year with a shut down secondary. I believe in this team and their coach, when they face the 84th ranked rushing offense. Despite my confidence in this match up I will dissect further.

FSU Defense vs. UNC's Offense
Well this story is similar as North Carolina's offense is last in the ACC and is anemic, but when you play defensive football and that's what you rely on you can get by on this, but they do have an 0-2 record and have performed worse in the ACC. You can admit that this team has faced some tough defensive teams, so I'm not sure if their 117th ranked offense is entirely accurate especially considering they have had many injuries along the offensive line. Good news UNC is coming off the bye and are going to get a couple of offensive lineman back here while on the other side of the ball FSU is just banged up without the possibility of defensive captain Dekoda Watson questionable for the Seminoles here tonight. I think the bye for Butch Davis will allow them to find enough holes in this terrible FSU defense that ranks 107th in the country. They should be able to find big holes in this secondary. Something that Boston College was able to do at home. BC is a similar team to UNC in the fact that they rely on defense and are poor on offense. Boston College along with Georgia Tech, and Miami all ACC teams put up significantly more yards than they averaged when they played UNC proving my point that this team will struggle again to win the game. GTech averages 427 put up 532, Miami 390 put up 476, BC 301 puts up 399. All three of the teams won and granted Gtech and Miami seem to be better than UNC it is debatable if BC is. UNC is 5-1-1 L7 off a bye week. Also note worthy is that this is the first ever Thursday night game at Chapell Hill the crowd and a dominant defense should spark this team to victory.

Take Chargers -3 4-Dime NFL POD
Yesterday was a 1/2 point loss on our POD with the Steelers winning by 13 on a 13.5 spread. Tonight we look to bounce back with the Chargers who are 5-0-1 ATS vs. Broncos last 3 years. Chargers vs. Broncos is a heated rivalry that took a step back when Cutler was traded. Now Orton leads the Broncos and their defense has pushed them to 5-0 shockingly.

I'm not buying it, because Broncos finally play a good team on the road. They have played poor offensive teams, with the exception of the Patriots and Cowboys whom they played at home where they have the advantage. Monday night they go on the road to face the 13th ranked offense and the 3rd ranked passing game. Chargers are ranked dead last running the ball, but I think that number is fudged because they have faced an average ranked defense of 9th. On the Broncos side they have the #1 defense and the #1 for points scored against. However, how accurate are those ranks when they have played an average offensive attack that is ranked 17th, and an average points scored of 20th. I'm not saying the Broncos aren't for real they clearly are, but this is the first road game they are facing a quality opponent of this magnitude inside the division. Well week 1 they faced the Bengals and won on a miracle, but the Chargers should have more offense than the Bengals had in that game.

Chargers coming off the bye were able to recover from some injuries and tighten things up on defense as they dropped a guy and picked up a DL. The three teams who played off a bye on Sunday all played well. The Saints destroyed the Giants, and the Packers shut out the Lions while the Bears played well enough to beat a very good Falcons team on the road. Now the Chargers faced the Broncos off an emotional victory against the Broncos on Monday night on the road against the Chargers a team that beat them 52-21 last year. I expect an aggressive hungry Chargers team that will get it done by a TD tonight. They'll get up early by 14 points and you'll see Merriman very active in the backfield in this game.

Take the Steelers -13.5 @ -120 (buy 1/2 point) 4.5 Dime POD
I'm going with the Steelers on this one. They are now starting to get healthy and they are also starting to run the ball more effectively. They will have Willy Parker back healthy it looks like as he is probable in this one to go along with Mendenhall. Additionally it looks like Troy Polamalou will return which will give the defense a big boost even though they are playing the Browns who have scored a total... yes total of 15 points in three games on the road this year. While the Browns have played some decent defenses this year they will face the best one yet in my opinion. Steelers weakness was in pass coverage without Polamalou as they rank 14th, but they were facing an average opponent of 15th ranked pass offense here on Sunday they face the 31st passing offense. I don't think the Browns can run on the Steelers as they are #2 in run defense. ON the other side of the ball the Steelers are ranked 4th in passing offense and should be able to pass on the Browns were are better than they are given credit with the 9th ranked pass defense, but they have faced an average 17th ranked passing offense. While they may be decent against the pass they are dead last in the league against the run which will give the Steelers and opportunity to really get the running game going. Bottom line the Browns do not score points, and the Steelers have a defense that will stop you from scoring points. I'm taking the points in this one!

5-Dime Teaser of the Week Jaguars -4.5 & Jets -4.5
This 6 point teaser is on the Jaguars and the Jets. Both of these teams are coming off embarassing road losses a week ago and come back on Sunday angry and fired up for a win against defenseless opponents. While the Jets could not stop the wild cat they will go up against the Bills who scored a whopping 3 points against the Browns and had just 2 completions. While the Jaguars will face the visiting Rams from St. Louis. The Jaguars have been dominant at home and that 2 point loss to the Colts in week 1 continues to look more impressive as this team. Last week was a tough game for the Jaguars going all the way to Seattle where we had them to lose in our POD. This week they will be comfortable in Jaxonville against the Rams who some are saying are the worst team in the NFL.

Take Florida Atlantic pk (5-Dime POD)
I wagered on this team earlier in the year and FAU came up short. I don't normally like to place my big play on a team that's 0-4, but I can not help it. For me this is hands down of anything else on the card this week!

Saturday we've got FAU who has not had trouble moving the ball at all this year as they have 384.5 yards per game, but they have struggled to turn those into points. They are ranked 110th in points scored, but they have faced some tough defenses and they finally get a bit of a break this week against North Texas. FAU has faced an average defensive rank of 48 in terms of points scored and that to me has been one of the bigger reasons why they have struggled. On Saturday night they will be facing the 107th defense in terms of points scored, and North Texas got this by facing an average offense that ranks 92nd in points scored. Oh and North Texas does not score they are ranked 94th.

FAU is obviously angry and sick and tired of losing as their coach Schnellenberger said they had more intensity and their pace was higher than usual. I look for RB Morris to have a big game against North Texas who is giving up 170.4 yards per game on the ground and they have gotten that average against some pretty poor offenses with an average rank of 73. FAU rushing will start to improve as they start to play some poor defenses and this will happen on Saturday, because FAU is used to seeing some top rush defenses actually the average rush defense is 35th. Look for FAU to be able to come with a balanced attack something they have not been able to do all year long.

North Texas is a bad team they have committed 11 turnovers in four games, and they really have not played a tough schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced with an average of a 94th rank in total offense. This week they will face an offense that has struggled to point points up but have a 59th ranked offense and have faced a 43rd ranked defense. FAU is better than their ranking suggests and I think North Texas although their rankings are already bad I fear that they are about to get worse when they get deeper in the conference. FAU is 5-0 against North Texas and beat them 46-13 last year.

Take Tulsa +9 (3.5 Dime NCAAF POD) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with the home team here. Both teams have extra preparation in this one, but judging by the sound of it this is a big game for both. This is the most challenging game on Boise State's schedule the rest of the season and if they get past this it should be clear sailing from here. Tulsa on the other hand mirrors everything by what Boise State. They have so much respect for this team and they want this game. Head coach of Tulsa Todd Graham is calling this the biggest game that has ever been played at the University. He knows his players are going to play harder than Boise State and that formula usually works very well in an ESPN game with the home dog especially when they are getting more than a TD to play with!

Wait a second Tulsa lost to Oklahoma 45-0 while Oregon was dominated by Boise State. I know this, but two things to consider #1 Boise State was at home against Oregon in their stadium where they just do not lose the confusion of blue jerseys on blue turf is enough to confuse a QB. Along with that Tulsa was @ Oklahoma and was without two of its starting offensive linemen. Coach Graham said, "we've got a chance now to go out against Boise State and say that score wasn't indicative of what it came out and get a chance to redeem ourselves."

For me all they have to do is cover the spread and they redeem themselves, but I think they will play very solid game here tonight. Boise State lost one of their rushers to a season ending injury and I think that will finally hurt them here as they go up against the nations 16th ranked rush defense. That ranking is way off as they have faced an average opponent of 87, but still has to be respected. Not only did Boise State look weak against UC-Davis, but they recorded just 1 sack a strength for this team and something they will need tonight if they want to stop Tulsa on defense. On the other side of the ball the highly proficient Kellen Moore has been incredible, but the offense seems to stall in the red zone. They have scored TDs on just 16 of 27 red zone trips including 6 of which came without points due to missed field goals or turnovers.

Their will be a sell out crowd and I believe the Hurricane provide pressure on Boise State a team that has shown some definite weaknesses that just may get exploited tonight.

Take LA Monroe -2 (3-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
Okay, pre-season would say go with Arkansas State and pre-season All conference DE from ASU Alex Carrington, but the games are not played in the pre-season and despite Arkansas State picked to be #2 in Sun Belt this year they are 1-3 out of the gate. Of course they have played some challenging opponents in Iowa and Nebraska on the road, but they also lost to Troy at home as favorites. LA Monroe has not faced cup cakes by any stretch as they have played some very good defenses in Arizona State (leaders in the Pac-10 in defense) and @ Texas to open up the season. They lost both games, but still own the 15th best rushing attack in the nation despite their opponents averaging the 59th rush defense. ASU also has a solid 49th rush offense, but have played against an average 55th rush defense. However, this game won't likely be decided on the ground as both teams have solid run defenses in 28th for LA Monroe (78th average rush offense opponent) and ASU 25th (66th average offense opponent). Through those match ups this game looks relevantly even, but their are two things in my mind pushing me towards LA Monroe to come up with their 3rd conference win.

#1 this is a team with a chip on their shoulder. They also have revenge on their minds as they lost in the most recent battle. You better believe it, nobody picked them to be as good as they have been so far. They are picked to finish 6th and now they stand atop and a win on Tuesday night in the National Spotlight on ESPN 2 will go a long way in deciding this teams future. Here is where these two teams are different. The passing game! With a 60% chance of rain I think we can call that the passing game will still be intact.

LA Monroe have been able to pass the ball behind their Junior QB Trey Revell. Levell played well against the teams he was supposed to. This will be the case on Tuesday night when he faces the 112th pass defense. ASU has been tested in the passing game as they have faced an average 38th pass offense, but again they should be tested on the road as Monroe has some balance in the rushing game in Frank Goodin who has 461 yards rushing and 8 TD through 5 games. He is coming off a 19 carry game for 163 yards off FIU and he is a quick receiver out of the backfield and should give Revell a guy to go to when he gets blitzed. I expect Goodin to be slowed down on the ground, but the passing game for Monroe should be there against a weak secondary.

On the otherside Corey Leonard was impressive against Iowa throwing 2 TD to keep the game close against a very good Iowa defense. However, that's just one game and I expect a let down here tonight. ASU has the 95th ranked passing attack in the country and while LA Monroe is ranked 114th in the pass it's not true on how good they are in my opinion as they have faced an average 33rd ranked passing offense including three teams in the top 33. LA Monroe runs a unique defense unlike any other and I think leonard will have some trouble against it. It's called the 3-3-5. You have 3 linemen, 3 linebackers, and 5 in the secondary. LA Monroe has the personel to run this because DT Aaron Williams anchors the middle while All Conference DE Aaron Morgan rushed from the outside. Morgan has 7 sacks on the season alone and closing in on ULM history. The trio of linebackers for ULM Smith, Jackson and Thomas all are in the top 25 for tackles in the Sun Belt. It's a defense that can be dominant if they can start to stop the pass which I think they will use their experience to do so tonight.

Bottom line this game kind of reminds me of UTEP vs. Memphis over the weekend where we had Memphis as +2 home dogs. UTEP was coming off the big win against Houston and everyone was giving them praise. Not so close here as ASU did not pull off the win @ Iowa but I still think that had a big impact on the line which did open with ASU as -1 favorites and quickly went to +2. This game is going to be exciting and close, but in the end one team is going to have to step up in the passing game and I will take LA Monroe in this one as LA Monroe is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games while ASU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games!

Take Jets -2.5 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
This game really reminds me of a couple of games yesterday. The Falcons went to the 49ers as the better team yet a whacky line of +1.5 and they dominated 45-10, and the other one was my POD from yesterday with the Seahawks -1.5 against the Jaguars. Jaguars went on to win 41-0. I feel like the Jets are the better team here and the Dolphins are not the same team as last year. Jets are clearly better than they were last year and it's because of their defense. Despite being without Calvin Pace their first 4 games the defense has been superb not even allowing the high scoring Saints to score an offensive TD until the 4th quarter. The Jets still lost that game and that is the reason I think the Jets win here tonight. This team will be focused especially defensively coming off the loss. Rex Ryan saw this "Wild Cat" offense twice last year once in the regular season and once in the playoffs. Dolphins rushed for just 129 yards on 43 carries in the two games combined. They also forced Pennington to throw a total of 5 interceptions and he's a QB that does not throw many INTs. Jets now have the liberty of facing an inexperienced QB in Chad Henne and I believe the Jets will force him to beat them.

Jets who lost to the Dolphins in the last game of the season last year will be well motivated to continue their dominance over the Dolphins in this rich rivalry. Jets are 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings. In their loss last year the Dolphins had 126 yards on 29 carries, look for a major improvement in that number and for this to be a low scoring game. I expect a lot of low risk plays from Sanchez early screens etc., but don't be surprised to see him take some shots down the field to the new WR Braylon Edwards.

Take Seahawks -1 (4.5 Dime POD)
In the beginning of the year I said these two teams were going to bet he two surprise teams in the NFL. The Jaguars are now 2-2 winning two games in a row and looked dominant last weekend while the Seahawks have struggled since they lost Hasselback, but have always dominated at home. Sunday they will be home sending the Jaguars on their longest trip in several years. It's hard to play in Seattle and I think they will struggle as Hasselback will return against the Jaguars tomorrow. I like the under the radar Seahawks team and I will back them here like I did against the Bears when they out gained them in every offensive category but lost mainly because of Olindo Mare's 2 missed field goals. That won't happen on Sunday. Mare won't be kicking 6 field goals with Hasselback at the helm or against the Jaguars defense that ranks 31st against the pass. Look for Hasselback to get it going early with the passing game and their deep WR core that features Branch, whose your mama, and Burelsson. Two trends dating back to the 1985 season that I love working against the Jaguars and for the Seahawks are:

Seahawks fall into a 46-21-1 ATS since the 1994 season where a team coming off an ATS loss of 3+ and going over by more than 3 now as a home favorite. Jaguars fall into a 14-43-2 ATS trend since 1985 season where a team is coming off a win and the over as a home dog now playing in an open stadium with artificial turf. Those teams are losing the game by an average margin of 10.3 points. Jaguars are due for a let down and you will see a much better Seahawks defense here on Sunday.

Take Oregon State pk (5-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)

Going with the Beavers at home in this situation. Let's give Stanford the credit they deserve as they have started 4-1 in impressing fashion, but this will be their most challenging test on the road against Oregon State team that is starting to get on a roll after an impressive PAC-10 victory over a talented Arizona State tteam 28-17. Arizona State is no joke as they rank 8th in total defense and 9th in pass defense yet Oregon State was able to go into their stadium and beat them. Oregon State will be on revenge after losing in Stanford last year 28-36. Stanford is off a win against UCLA 24-16 and seems to be the real deal so far, but keep in mind they are 3-0 in the conference by beating three teams picked to finish at the bottom of the conference this year Wash State, Washington, and UCLA.

For me it is is as simple as what each team has to do to win, and for Oregon State it's pretty basic stop the run and Toby Gerhart and you win this game. Oregon State ranks 12th in rush defense, but it should or could be a lot higher as they have faced teams that don't run the ball. Stanford on the other hand will have to stop two parts of the game and that is the Rodgers brothers Quizz in the run game and James in the passing game who is coming off a 10 reception performance last week. While Stanford does have a weapon in Ryan Whalen as a receiver who is second in the Pac-10 in receiving yards, Oregon State has the counter to this weapon in Brandon Hardin who had an interception in his first start. He is one of the more physically gifted men on this roster and I expect him to excel in his second start. He's also a great open field tackler.

What other advantages does Oregon State have here on Saturday? Well Stanford has been very bad on the road and they have not been tested to this point. They were home against UCLA and Washington and visited Washington State which is basically the joke of a very good Pac-10 conference. Stanford has lost 9 of their last 11 games away from home. Oregon State has more talent than the first three opponents and they'll be able to stop Gerhart at home forcing redshirt quarterback Andrew Luck to have a big day. On the other side Stanford's D has some major issues against the run and they will now face their most difficult task and it comes on the road against Jacquizz Rodgers the reigning Pac-10 offensive player of the year last year as a freshmen. Remember Oregon State is a very good team at home and they beat USC, Cal, and Arizona State last year at home. If you remember previous years this is the time of year Oregon State leap frogs in progression and makes a stand and this weekend I think they have an easier task than many think which is why you will hear many people talking about Oregon State next week because right now Stanford is the talk of the Pac-10. Beaver QB Canfield will face an inexperienced secondary and will have James Rodgers open on slants making him very dangerous.

The X factor- home field advantage obviously which is what we mentioned above, but Stanford has fumbled 12 times losing seven and has been the biggest struggle of this offense. Turnovers are what change and decide games a lot of the time and with the crowd behind them in their first real conference road game because I don't count Washington State I think they'll struggle. Note Stanford has not lost a fumble this season and they are one of just 5 schools that can claim this impressive stat.

Take Vikings -4 (buy 1/2 point if you need to!) 3.5 Dime NFL POD
I'm going with the hype and taking the Vikings and I'll explain to you why in just a moment. First off the Packers have played three teams with solid running teams and now they are ranked 23rd in the league in rushing defense. Now they will face the best running team in the league in the Minnesota Vikings. Last time out Peterson rushed for 192 yards on 30 carries in a home victory of 28-27 and that was with Gus Ferrotte throwing 3 interceptions. Up to this point Favre has taken care of the ball, and in his last performance to me he looked better than at any point with the Jets last year. The zip on his passes were impressive, and with all that said I still think the Vikings will run the ball. Now I would be an idiot to base my decision of backing the Vikings tonight totally on that mismatch. Considering that the Packers most likely will be passing the ball a lot with one of the top rush defenses the loss of Chad Clifton that the Packers have to over come is just going to be too much. Jerrod Allen should have a field day of getting pressure on Rodgers who has already been sacked 12 times this year. Daryn Colledge will take over for Clifton and this will most likely hurt them on the ground and passing game. On the other side of the ball the Packers have gotten just 5 sacks on opposing QB's and expect them not to be able to get their paws on Brett Favre Monday night. My favorite part of this match up and a player you won't hear in the media at all is Percy Harvin. He in my opinion can make the most difference here tonight and so far he is only going to get better. So far he has 12 receptions 128 yards 2 TD, 5 rushing attempts for 28 yards, and 358 yards returning and a TD. Every time he touches the ball he can take it to the end zone. Packers don't really have a player like that so again edge Vikings at home in the dome that is going to be loud!

Patriots -2 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
I'm going with the Patriots a lot has been said about Joe Flaco as of late, and the Patriots defense. Flaco is up, and the Pats D is down, but still not buying that the Patriots are as bad as they have shown so far. They are only going to get better as the year goes on, and I have not seen enough from the Ravens Defense for them to come up to win in New England. Since Rex Ryan's departure the Ravens D is not the old D we are used to. Look for Brady to have a big game and if Welker is back an even bigger day. The thing about the Patriots is they can still stop the run, so I expect them to do that and force the Ravens to be one dimensional which will lead to the Patriots winning the game and covering the modest 2 point spread we are getting here. Take advantage because when will you ever see the Patriots -2 at home?

Take Mich State -3 (4.5 Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
This is a must win for the Spartans. Although I think they have the better team especially at home and that's not why I am taking them, but it will be why they will cover this spread. Michigan State could easily be 3-1. I'll give Wisconsin credit they beat the Spartans but in the losses against Central Mich and Notre Dame they should have won. Central Mich had a miracle win with an onside kick etc, while Cousins missed a wide open WR in the end zone late in the 4th that would have won the game. Although Michigan is 4-0 I fear that is not the truth of this team. They have played 4 home games with 100,000 fans behind them in each game. I expect some challenges for freshmen QB's in their first road test.

Mich State's offense
The offense has been explosive with play action behind Kirk Cousins, and when they need a run they pull in Keith Nichol who can run the ball for a change of pace. Mich State pulled in Nichol last week and he threw an interception so expect him to come in only to give the running game a boost which I think you will see a team more determined to get the running game started. The Spartans are ranked 87th in rushing offense but they are facing Michigan Defense that is suspect to the run and a balanced rushing attack will only wear them out by the 4th. Of course you can pass all day on Michigan's secondary as both Notre Dame and Indiana proved and I find it hard for them to stop the Spartans big weapons. Expect the Spartans to run early and often with their 3 headed attack, Winston, Caper, and Ray all with 20+ carries and for Nichol who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry to get some action as well.

Mich State's defense
This will be the game that the defense comes together a bit. They have an aggressive front four that can stop the run, and that will be their main goal on Saturday when they face Michigan's 8th ranked rushing attack. Mich State has allowed just 113.5 yards on the ground ranked 44th. However, I think they are better than that, and expect them to put an extra guy up to stop Michigan's most talented players in Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor. This will force a major advantage for the Spartans. Tate Forcier has been extremely impressive over the first 4 games. I really gave the guy credit throwing the TD pass last week when his arm was like hanging off. He was in pain which was clear and I think he will get hit on Saturday putting him in some pain. That leads to a bunch of questions once Denard Robinson comes in the other freshmen QB. He's kind of like the Spartan's Keith Nichol. He looks to run first, and does not have the accuracy Forcier has. Regardless he's going to get some playing time and that could be the key to the game, because Forcier could surely lead the Wolverines in any comeback threat. The overall confidence should be up for Michigan State's defense facing two freshmen QB's who have yet to play a road game in college football. After opening up their first 4 games at home at the big house now they will be tested in a tough environment.

Trend of the day
This year teams (Michigan) losing ATS by more than 6 points as a favorite now facing a conference opponent are 5-17-1 ATS with a -10 point margin of victory.

Take Panthers +9 (3-Dime POD)(1-5 scale) + 6 point teaser with Over! Panthers +15 Over 42
First thought on this line is an inflation. Have the Cowboys actually shown us anything to deserve this kind of a line? This should be a -6.5 line because the Panthers have not shown us anything better and they are the road team. However, the Panters are a 12 win team from a year ago and the Dallas defense is giving up 443 yards per game. Dallas Cowboys main problem has been getting to the QB as they have just one sack vs. the Giants and the Bucs. Carolina having similar defensive problems giving up 33 points per game is a little bit of an exageration because of Delhomme's turn over issues. However, he rebounded at Atlanta with 296 yards passing, but through an INT in the red zone to stop their come back attempt as they lost 28-20 to a very good Falcons team. I believe the Falcons are better than the Cowboys, which is neither here or there, but I just do not see the Cowboys being able to get enough stops on defense to stop a Panthers team that can run the ball and pass. Look for them to start the game with their two headed monster with Stewart and Williams which will set up the play action which is where Delhomme is dangerous. I have a few interesting trends here NFL teams who start 0-2 that won 11 or more games the year before are 17-7-1 vs. teams who won 10 or less the previous year. Look for Carolina to be in this game all night long in what I think will be a game played in the 20's which is why I'm taking the over on the teaser. Also all teams since the 1985 teams are over 38-16-1 after losing at home now playing a conference opponent as a home favorite 7-9.5 points.

Take Bengals +4 (4-Dime NFL POD)(1-5 SCALE)
As long as the Steelers struggle to run the ball they will struggle to win games. There is a huge hole in their Defense which is evident by home much teams have been able to pass the ball on them. Cutler was 27/38 with 2TDs for 236 yards and Collins had 244 yards passing the week before. Look for Palmer and the Bengals to come out strong in this one as they have not given up 100 yards rushing in a game yet this season and they have 9 total sacks. Big Ben takes the most sacks so I see many plays and drives being killed if they can wrap up Ben the first time they get their hands on them. Cedric Benson is having a very good year so far with 4.3 ypc and that will likely be the key to the game. Denver could not run on the Steelers at all, but if the Bengals can establish some kind of running game than this game should be a win for the Bengals. I still think Vegas is over ranking the Steelers this year and off the loss from last week many think they will rebound, but I like what I saw last weekend from the Bengals going to Green Bay and winning outright as TD dogs. They owe their fans for the week 1 debacle with Denver's miracle win! Expect them to come out firing and for the crowd to be electric. I expect a lot of passing on the Steelers D they are not as good as last year and that hole from the speedy Polamalou will be attacked!

Take Patriots -4.5 (3-Dime POD Runner UP)
I'm going with the Patriots here at home.. Could it just be that the Jets defense is as good or better than advertised? Anyway I think Brady knows what he has to do and at home against a one man rush team in John Abraham I think the Patriots will have plenty of protection to give it up to their boys! The Falcons needed 4 turnovers at home to Miami to win 19-7 in week 1 and then they gave up 296 passing yards to Jake Delhomme and 144 rushing yards. This will be the Falcons first road game and they lost 9-24 in their first two road games in 2008. Expect something similar from them here on Sunday. Expect a healthy running game from the Patriots for being blitzed all over the place!

Take Oregon State 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD (1-5 scale)

Both Arizona and Oregon State failed with non-conference contests. Arizona lost to Iowa out of the Big 10 while Oregon State lost to Cinci. I just see Oregon State having a huge advantage here Saturday night. Arizona is relying way way too much on their new starting QB Nick Foles who is the better pocket passer, but if he's the key to the game that is a lot of weight on a first time starting QB. Nic Grigsby has been effective early and is 2nd to Jahvid Best in the Pac-10 in rushing, but Oregon State has the personal to stop the run. Oregon State is ranked 17th in the nation against the run allowing just 3.2 ypc. Arizona will have their hands with the Rodgers brothers. The two are the most dynamic play makers int eh Pac-10 and they will make the Oregon State offense go! I just would never back a team (Arizona) that has struggled to put the ball into the endzone and also struggle to convert on 3rd downs. Those are two key ingredients to winning football games that they have had trouble with this year! Oregon State has a 4-3 defense which emphasizes speed and keeps the offense in front of them. I believe the Beavers can concentrate on the running game from the Wild Cats and worry about the pass after with a new QB in there Arizona is likely to keep it conservative really early. It comes down to Arizona's offense they will need a balanced attack to beat Oregon State on the road and that is something I just do not feel that they can come up with, with a new QB. Expect Arizona to be aggressive going after Foles here even though they have just 2 sacks they will go after him and try to force mistakes and I think they'll get them.

Take Dolphins +3.5 buy hook -120 3.5 Dime NFL POD
We are going with the Dolphins here tonight. Colts are weak on the offensive line and I think the Dolphins will be able to get a pass rush on Peyton Manning. The offensive line has been an issue for Manning as their LT Tony Ugoh has now been replaced. Even when he was in there I never liked him and now they replace him with LT Charlie Johnson the 4th year player was a 6th round pick out of Oklahoma STate in 2006. I'm still not confident and kind of puzzled why they keep protecting Manning's blind side with incapable LT who will try to block Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Good luck is all I have to say. Manning was one dimensional to Reggie Wayne in week 1 vs. the Jaguards where they won 14-12 to the Jaguars who were beat up this week against the Cardinals. I still don't trust the Colts defense and their ability to force turnovers which is good for the Dolphins. Last week they turned the ball over 4 times and still only lost 19-7 on the road against the Falcons. Look for Pennington and company to do a much better job on controlling the ball and clock without any turnovers. Also note that Anthony Gonzalez went out with a knee injury and now the Colts are left with WR that Manning has no history with. He has always been a passing QB that needs chemistry with his guys. Look for Dallas Clark to have a big game, but I think Reggie Wayne will be shut down and the Dolphins should be in position to win this game out right!

Take Lions +10.5 4.4 Dime NFL POD (1-5 scale)
I really like this play and some of you may think I'm crazy, but the Lions are just getting disrespected at home here. Lions are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 times being a double digit dog. Their lone loss coming on the road last week against the Saints, but the Saints and that offense do not stop passing and it was a mis-match for the Lions. Look for the Vikings to continue with their conservative approach of playing defense and giving the rock to Peterson. Lions only lost to the Vikings by a combined 6 points in two games last year so you know this team matches up well. If the Lions can cause a few mistakes from Favre, or a fumble from Peterson watch out. Peterson did lead the league in fumbles last year people forget that. Also I can't believe they are getting this many points at home. Since the 1985 season the Lions are 26-10-1 ATS when they are coming off an ATS loss as a dog now playing a division opponent as an under dog. The margin of victory was -2.5 points, so the Lions keep the game close in division games. Vikings since 1985 after a win, and going over now facing an opponent as an away favorite 10-13.5 points are 9-26-1 ATS with a margin of victory of 4.6 points. Take the Lions to cover the spread here again in a game that will be much closer than you think.

Take Michigan State +10.5 (4.4 Dime POD **1-5 scale)
Going with Michigan St. to continue their streak of playing well at Notre Dame. The Spartans have won 7 straight and will go for their 8th coming off a big upset at home last week to Central Michigan. Notre Dame will be fighting back from a loss at Michigan as well and will want this game just as much. This line has been coming down but can be found in many places at +11 even.

Michigan States loss against Central Michigan was a big dissapointment to the players and coaching staff. They are angry, but the fact of the matter is Central Michigan is a good team and it took a miracle for them to beat Michigan State. A perfect onside kick and C-Mich drove the field lined up for a 47 yard field goal and missed, Spartans win! Nope, an offside penalty gives them an extra 5 yards and Central Michigan out of the MAC upset Michigan State. The MAC gets better every year and Michigan State faced the best QB they will face all year in my opinion in Dan Lefevour who has numbers over the last few years that rival Tim Tebow without the Tebow weapons. Lefevour will definatley be playing on Sundays next year. He did blast Michigan State's secondary, considered by many to be the strength of the team for 328 yards, but that was mostly by dinking and dunking and don't forget he has much more mobility than Jimmy Claussen who has looked impressive and has a better WR corps. So why does Michigan State cover the spread. In my opinion 10+ points is simply too many for this match up. Notre Dame's defense is not as good as they showed against Nevada as they gave up 430 yards to a Michigan team that was just not that good a year ago. Michigan State has everyone back in their secondary from a year ago minus Otis Willer, but they got back Roderick Jennette who was a projected starter the year before but had to sit out for academic reasons. This will be a big test for the Spartans and I see that they'll be up for it as their defense translates better vs. the pro style offense rather than the spread that they had to face last week. On offense they really need to establish a running game, but if they don't they have a pair of QB's that can keep up with Jimmy Clausen. Kirk Cousins has looked impressive and has yet to throw an INT. They have the weapons offensively to move the ball. This game is going to come down to mistakes and I'm just talking about who will win the game. I think it will be a close game all the way through and a mistake will be the different but even then it's not going to be a 10 point mistake so I'll gladly take this amount of points as Vegas is making a bigger deal out of Central Michigan's miracle win over Michigan State. I believe this would be a TD spread if Michigan State wins that game.

4-Dime NFL POD *6point teaser Patriots -5 (buy 6) with Chargers -4 (buy6) -110
I hate to be a complete square but I just can't help it as both favorites have dominated the opponents and I don't see either under dog any better this year than they were last year compared to how much better the Patriots and Chargers will be this year!

Take Over 47.5 Bills/Patriots

Why Patriots?
First off I don't like the number of +11 despite thinking the Patriots win this game by 2 scores it could easily be a TD and a FG, but I don't see the Bills coming within 5 points of the Patriots here tonight. The Bills have been dominated by the Patriots under Bill Bellechick including 2-0 SU & ATS last year without Tom Brady. In 2007 it was the Patriots out scoring the Bills 94-17. I do not see it being that lopsided this year as the Bills offense has improved and the Patriots defense has taken a step back after losing Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, and now Seymour. I don't expect the Bills to be able to run the ball at all tonight without Lynch and with Wilfork and Warren up front with Mayo an excellent LB in stopping the run. However, the Bills should be able to move the ball by passing on the Patriots weak secondary. However, they won't be able to keep up with what I think is an even better Patriots offense than 2007 where they went 16-0. I expect an anxious Tom Brady here tonight to go along with newcomers Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway who will stretch the field with Moss allowing the Patriots to run the ball when they want. I'm expecting 30+ points out of the Patriots and 2 TD + FG from the Bills. Although I see the Bills improving on offense they did score 3 points in pre season on 15 possessions for the first team and they will certainly miss their All Pro tackle Jason Peters. Which is why if you don't have the teaser available go with the Patriots here.

Chargers vs. Raiders
Raiders can only improve and they did that defensively when they picked up Richard Seymour who now is expected to play. However, I still see a Raiders team that has a long way to go and I'm not totally sold on Jamarcus Russell to be able to match the Chargers here. Again I like the Raiders defense and secondary, and I see the Chargers running the ball a lot here tonight. So I don't know if 10 points is too much on the road at Oakland, but I feel much better with the teaser at -4 or even 3.5 if you get it there. Chargers have won 12 straight over Oakland and 10-1 ATS including a 28-18 victory here last year as well as a 34-7 home victory. Raiders have improved, but not nearly as much as the Chargers improve specifically on defense with the return of Shawne Merriman. I expect some turn overs to be what kills Oakland here tonight and I just can't play on a team that will turn the ball over in their own zone.

Take Packers -4 (4-Dime POD 1-5 scale)
Sunday opening night will be our POD and I'm riding high with the Packers here. There are just too many adjustments that I think Cutler is going to have to make to play in this division that he won't get his first walk through. Although I do see the Bears right in the thick of things to win this division I do not see it here tonight against the Packers in what should be a high scoring affair. Last year the Packers dominated the Bears for the 1st 6 quarters. They won at home 37-3 and then they backed that up with a 14-3 lead at the half in Chicago only to fall 17-3 in the final two quarters to lose 20-17.

The Bears weakness is their pass defense and it's something the Packers can do with 2nd year starter Aaron Rodgers who threw for 487 yards last year against the Bears with 4TD and 2INT. One year later and one year better will be Rodgers and I think he is a top 5 QB in this league right now! That is saying a lot and he has the weapons in Jennings and Driver and Lee to get the job done against the Bears. The guy will be whether or not the Packers can play defense this year. That remains to be the question and we will find out.

Packers made the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4 and they have a new defensive staff. They drafted BJ Raji out of BC to play DT at 6-2 337lbs he is beast although he is questionable Sunday I am confident he'll make the start and should help force the Bears to have to throw the ball something that is going to be a challenge early in the season while Cutler gets his feet wet. The Bears main tagets will be Olsen and Clark along with Forte and Hester. If Hester can have a big year at WR this team could be on its way. I just think they will struggle facing the Packers new defense and the Packers will be able to score a bunch of points with their passing attack!

Take South Carolina +7 4-Dime POD (1-5 scale)
I really like the Gamecocks this year under Steve Spurrier against Georgia as dogs. South Carolina could not get much going last week at NC State on offense, as they won 7-3 and it was only because NC State turned the ball over on their own 14 yard line. Georgia did not look much better against Oklahoma State. Georgia has lost some big dogs in Stafford and Moreno and have much more to over come this year.

So why am I picking the Gamecocks here today? Defense! Plain and simple I saw Oklahoma State in the backfield a bunch last week against Georgia and that's not expected from a Big 12 team at all. Now South Carolina sacked NC State 6 times last week and I see them getting a lot of pressure as Georgia is without OT Trinton Sturdivant. This game will be a low scoring affair similar to last season's win by Georgia 14-7. I was also impressed with Oklahomas run D as they held Georgia to 95 yards. Again that was Oklahoma State and this is South Carolina a much better defense. Expect a low scoring game here and look for South Carolina to win the field position battle and for Spurrier to take some risks on offense and keep this game close and pull the upset in a nice revenge spot!

Take Steelers -6 3-DIME POD (1-5SCALE) **TO WIN 3DIMES
I believe this line would be much much worse if it was not for the Titans 31-14 victory over the Steelers late last year. If you remember the Steelers led 14-10 in the middle of the 3rd and were in the driver seat when they threw a interception that was taken back 83 yards for a TD. Now I believe the Steelers have gotten better this year while I think the Titans just take a step backwards in 09. The rushing offense will be there for the Titans with White and Chris Johnson but not against the Steelers that were ranked #2 against the run in 2008 behind the Vikings with a 3.3 ypc. Titans were #7 with 3.7 ypc, but they lost their run stopper in Albert Haynesworth who I think will make a major impact in 09. If you remember Kerry Collins did not throw the ball much early which was part of their success late. I think he really struggles here to move the ball against the Steelers. Steelers will look to run first as they had to pass against the Titans right off the back when they trailed 10-0 early, which is why you see 25-39 with 329 yards for Big Ben. Pittsburgh has the advantage on both sides of the ball tonight and should pull away in the 2nd half in my opinion.

Take Clemson +5.5 -110 Risk 3.3 Dimes to win 3Dimes
A lot of talk has been about how Clemson has just 3 days to prepare for this triple option threat of Georgia Tech and I'm sure that's why the public is all over Georgia Tech along with their #15 ranking and home field advantage, but I'm not seeing this as a huge advantage at home for Tech vs. a hungry Clemson team that is 5-0 ATS as an away dog vs. Georgia Tech. Not only that, but if you think Clemson was not preparing for this offense in the spring and summer you have got to be kidding me. Actually D-coordinator Kevin Steele came out and said they prepared for this game in the spring/summer. In the three days they tweaked the strategy based on Georgia Tech's un-impressive win over Jacksonville state which saw them drop 5 fumbles.

It is worth noting that Clemson played very well against Tech's triple option actually they gave up less rushing yards to Georgia Tech than Virginia Tech, Miss. State, UNC, Miami, and Georgia by far. Clemson has talent and speed all over the field and should be a perfect match in my opinion to stop the triple option so long as the OL's don't get up field to block LB's. So in my opinion advantage Clemson on defense which might shock many people because of the triple option and talent that Tech has, but I believe in the DL of Clemson with Bowers, Sapp and Jenkins and the fact that the 3 days to prepare is over rated.

For Clemson on offense they feature two of the speediest players in the nation in CJ Spiller and Jacoby Ford at WR. Field position will be in favor of Clemson all night because of this match up. Both players returned a kick and punt for TD's in their first week win vs. Mid TN. Clemson's offensive line is one of the best in the nation and returns all 5 starters who all weigh over 300 lbs. I see Georgia Techs defense having many problems defending the variable rushing attack of Spiller who will take the ball outside and sophmore Jamie Harper who will run it up the gut. So here you have Clemson with the advantage despite starting a freshman QB because of field position on their special teams and the running game.

Lastly I was no impressed with how Georgia Tech looked against Jacksonville State turning the ball over 5 times. There is a huge difference in Jacksonville State and Middle TN and I think Clemson is put in a great position to take advantage and build some momentum for the season!

Take Alabama -6.5 4-Dime POD
We go big here with Alabama right at the start. I just have too much respect for Nick Saba and the SEC vs. the top of the ACC in the likes of Virginia Tech. I'm not big on handicapping these big national televised events, but this one sticks out to me and has so for a month now. I just can't leave it alone as I think Alabama is going to win the west SEC again this year. Let's be honest they had arguably the best defense last year as they were 3rd overall defense in the nation and 2nd vs. the run. They return 9 starters including all of their linebackers who will be able to contain Taylor who to me is their only threat in the running game now that the Hokies star running back Darren Evans is done for the season. This game won't be your high scoring battle by any means, but remember last year when Alabama opened vs. Clemson as dogs. Alabama beat up on the ACC team 34-10. In my opinion Vegas is still a little bit behind the SEC and their is value to be had out there by backing SEC teams vs. other conference teams and this is another place where I think we can take advantage of. For Alabama's offense it only returns 4 starters, but the strength of this team was not the offense it was the defense and I believe they get enough to cover this spread.