[b]RAMS +7 5.5% POD[/b]

The Rams could not have looked worse a week ago, but I don't think they are this bad.  There has been roughly a 4 point adjustment made, and the Rams may have been peaking ahead to this game anyway.  Rams are 6-2 ATS against Russell Wilson, who is coming in to this game banged up.  Also worth noting is how bad the Seahawks offensive line is.  This is clearly not the same team and the strength of the Rams defense is the defensive line.  This is their first game in LA, and I expect them to make a statement and have a chance to pull off the upset.  I'm not a huge fan of Case Keenum, but Todd Gurley is arguably a top 3 running back.  I think this is a low scoring game and 7 points is just too much value here for the home team.

Michigan State +8 5.5% max rating play

Mark Dantonio has been absolutely money in this situation of being an under dog.  Michigan State is 12-2 ATS as a dog with 9 outright upsets including two last year on the road against Michigan and Ohio State.  He's got plenty of time to prepare for this game, and I see no reason why this defense won't be strong once again.  They have 6 returning starters including Malik McDowell up front to help stop the run.  The linebacking corps is great, and they get Ed Davis returning for his 6th year of eligibility granted by the NCAA.  Shit I couldn't even get 4 years in division 2. 

The key for me is Michigan State stopping the run, and knowing what we know about Michigan State I can confidently say they will be good against the run with all the talent they have coming in along with the fact that they have an extra week to prepare.  Notre Dame was held under 200 yards rushing 7 times last year and averaged 29 points per game as opposed to over 40 ppg when they rushed for more than 200 yards.  To open this season they played Texas and Nevada and ran over 200 yards on both of them so the idea is that this offense is going to be great again, but in comes Michigan State with other plans.

Notre Dame actually did not play well last week despite covering the spread.  It was a 0-0 game after 1 quarter and then Nevada's special teams gave up a long punt return, and they had a safety and before you knew it the score was 25-0 at the half.  Meanwhile Michigan State struggled against Furman in week 1.  I seem to remember them struggling last year against Western Michigan to open the season before beating Oregon in their next game.

The other thing to consider here is the fact that Notre Dame actually returns just 9 starters compared to Michigan State's 10, and they have 10 more letterman than does Notre Dame.  Notre DAme also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Big Ten and Brian Kelly really does not have a lot to go by for this game.  I mean Michigan State has a new QB and they really did not show much against Furman.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame showed quite a bit of their weaknesses in the game against Texas.  If Michigan State does not turn the ball over they cover this game. 

TEASER ALERT - JETS +8.5 W/ CARDINALS -1 4.4% 

Jaguars +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

The Jaguars were getting pre-season hype, but when playing the Packers that goes out the window.  The public simply loves to back the big name QB, and that's no exception to open up the season.  The Jaguars have the offensive weapons to score with anyone and I think this is a huge statement game for them.  It also helps they are playing this in their home state.  This is not an easy trip for a cold weather team to be making even if it is in September.  Humidity is a key here as it's going to be in the 90's and will be near 70% humidity which I do give an edge to the Jaguars for. 

The Packers are not taking this Jaguars team seriously and probably are overlooking them a bit here with their division game against the Vikings up next week.  After all they are 19-61 over the last 5 years, but Jacksonville has the weapons on both sides of the ball.  The defense is very under rated, but extremely athletic.  I can see rookie corner Jalen Ramsey making a big play or two, and the Jaguars first round pick a year ago Dante Fowler is also a candidate to cause nightmares for offensive lines which is key, because the Packers are already without their starter Corey Linsley at Center which is a very underrated and under appreciated position in the NFL.

WASHINGTON STATE +10.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I like the Cougars to rebound this week after losing to Eastern Washington.  We have your classic sell high buy low situation with Boise State coming off a huge 45-10 win over ULL, and Washington State losing to a FCS school in Eastern Washington.  Look Washington State did the same thing a year ago opening up and losing against Portland State, a team Eastern Washington lost by just 3 points to.  I can’t buy much stock in that since Eastern Washington was likely preparing for that game all summer long.  Under Mike Leach this team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss, and they are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog.  Oh and by the way this is a team that has won games on the road against teams like USC, UCLA, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Cal.  This team that lost to Portland State a year ago, missed a field goal that would have beaten Stanford a year ago.  I also had this line at 6 in favor of Boise before what happened last week which means we are getting over 4.5 points of value through two key numbers of 7 and 10.

Boise State has their own issues this year despite what the media wants to tell you.  I’ll start with the offense that does return 8 guys (So does Washington State’s offense).  They are losing two offensive lineman that were first team All Mountain West and they were at LT, and C probably the two most important positions on an offensive line.  They have a new offensive coordinator, oh wait two co-offensive coordinators in Scott Huff and Zak Hill.  Huff has been with Boise for years and has no experience calling plays, and Zak Hill came over from Hawaii where he was the offensive coordinator a year ago.  Now I understand why they need two guys to run the show.  I’m surprised a team with a brand name like Boise State cannot get better coaching.  I haven’t been sold on Bryan Harsin either and the coaching moves he is able to make makes more sense to me why this team has under achieved since Chris Peterson has left.

As we saw in the opener Washington State’s offense will be just fine.  That leaves things open in this game for a back door cover in case Boise gets up early.  Washington State returns 8 starters, an experienced offensive line and Luke Falk at QB.  Boise State’s defense loses starters in the worst possible places.  They replace their entire defensive line, and 2 of their guys in the secondary that were All Mountain West defensive backs.  Yet, everyone is ready to jump all over Boise State as a dark horse team to get to the college playoff, I think not.  This game should be back and forth, but Washington State’s defensive coordinator Alex Grinch improved this defense 27 spots last year from 2014.  He spent 3 seasons at Missouri helping the secondary and has a bright future.  

Syracuse +14.5 4.4% POD; Syracuse +480 0.5%

This seems like a perfect storm for an upset with Syracuse hosting Louisville on a Friday night the week before they will host Florida State.  Talk about a look ahead spot.  Right now you can grab Syracuse at +480 and that’s exactly what we will do as a little extra.  The Carrier Dome is a tough place to play and I really like the moves Syracuse made brining in Dino Babers the offensive guru.

Babers coming over from Bowling Green studied under Art Briles for 4 years and runs a high pace offense that is capable of putting up a lot of points.  Watch out for Syracuse at home.  Even if they are in a spot to win they will be capable of the backdoor cover here, but I don’t think that will be needed.  Brian Ward comes in as the defensive coordinator, he was Baber’s guy a year ago and dramatically improved that defense from 97th to 46th.  He’s used to coaching defense with a fast paced offense.  Louisville does not really see a team like this so it will be interested how they handle any loss of momentum. 

Louisville looked great a week ago coming out with a 56-0 first half on a Thursday night when most public bettors were watching and they most certainly remember.  Syracuse sort of got loss in the midst of Friday night and only covered the spread by 2.5 points. QB Eric Dungey looked great, and Syracuse has tons of options at receiver, and I love their experience in the secondary and on this team overall as they return 90% of their production from a year ago.  I think Dino Babers gets a jump start on the turn around here at Syracuse and comes up with a big upset on Friday night.  Much like we predicted with Army in week 1. 

Missouri +10.5  5.5% Play of the Day

This is far too many points for a top 10 defense that returns 6 of their front 7 on defense.  This is a defense that despite ranking 118th in time of possession was 3rd in yards per play allowed.  Their defensive coordinator Bary Odom takes over as the head coach and there is a lot to be excited about with this team with a chance to pull off an upset in week 1.

Obviously pre-season and media hype is typically about offense and that’s why I think the spread is where it is for this game.  West Virginia typically has a good offense especially under Dana Holgorsen and many are calling for his best offense with an experienced offensive line and senior QB, but I’m not sold.  You all are aware of my feelings on the Big 12, and the Mountaineers are just 9-9 the last two years in this conference now going up against the SEC’s top defense other than Alabama.  West Virginia has struggled against top 40 defenses from a yards per play perspective going 1-9 over the last 3 years, 0-7 over the last two years.  Missouri is just that, but what about their offense?

Listen Missouri was awful on offense last year, and I expect them to score a TD more per game with Drew Lock coming back at QB.  The 4 star QB put on 20 lbs, and gets two key transfers along with his top 2 targets at WR back.  Alex Ross, a 4 star guy comes over to play RB from Oklahoma, and WR, Chris Black another 4 star guy comes over from Alabama.  The offense will improve despite a rebuilt offensive line which can only be a good thing when you look at what they did a year ago.  I just hope this Missouri team runs the ball more and they could win this game outright when you consider Josh Heupel taking over the offense, and West Virginia losing 7 starters on defense. 

Army +15 4.4% NCAAF Play of the Day

This could be the best Army team since 1996, at least offensively.  Jeff Monken played so many of his young recruits in previous years that this Army team has the most veterans in over 10 years.  Army, showed a lot of potential down the stretch and we spoke about them a ton in our pre-season podcasts.  They had 7 loses a year ago by 7 points or less so they are very well capable of staying in games.  You could argue they should have won the Army/Navy game.  On defense they return 9 starters, which is their most in 25 years.

Temple on the other hand should be good again and their defense should be good, but this is a tough draw for week 1.  Especially since this team did not face Navy last year, and they go from being ranked #9 in returning experience in 2015 to #66 in 2016.  They lose their best defensive player in Matakevich, and they bring in a new offensive coordinator.  I just don’t see a lot of points in this game, and the last time Temple faced a triple option team in 2014 they gave up 487 yards rushing.

Both these teams were ranked at the bottom of the nation in pace.  Army 128th, with Temple at 95.  It will be hard for Temple to win this game going away and that’s what the oddsmakers are predicting.  

Broncos +6 5.5* NFL POD; Broncos +197 1* bonus

It seems like everyone is on the Panthers for this game, but late action coming in on the Broncos possibly as the line has moved down off the 6 to 5.5, but 6 is regularly available still and I’m taking the Broncos at +6. (Stay tuned for my bonus prop package which will be added at the end of this write up late Saturday early Sunday).

Listen, the Panthers have looked unstoppable and have dones so against 2 of the better defenses in the NFC, but I still don’t think those defenses were as healthy, and they certainly are not nearly as good as this Denver group (more on that later).  I actually backed the Panthers in the NFC Championship big, and it paid off, but the final score is misleading and it has everyone backing Cam Newton and the Panthers for this Super Bowl.  I have heard 8 out of 10 people stating how the Panthers will win and dominate, but I’m not so sure for various reasons.  The most common reason I hear is the “Panthers offense is unstoppable, and the Broncos offense is awful.”  I also hear that Panthers defense is just as good as Denver.  I disagree, and we have seen the Broncos move their offense against good defenses.  4 of their last 5 games they have scored 20+ points and have done so against top defenses.

Let’s get into the misleading fact of the Denver offense and Carolina offense, because I think it’s critical to bring up.  Let’s look at stats and strength of schedule.  Denver comes in with the 24th ranked offense on paper form a yards per play perspective and they have done this with 2 QB’s and a very conservative approached offense.  Along with that they have faced 11 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  So their offense has had a tough challenge all year.  When you look at Carolina in comparison it really does not compare.  The Panthers have faced just 6 of their 18 opponents ranked in the top 15 in yards per play defense.  Their division opponents not very good in Atlanta and New Orleans so that plays a big factor, but this team really hasn’t played a defense like Denver with the exception of Seattle.

They scored 31 and 27 points on Seattle and that was impressive, but Denver is a better defense.  They run a 3-4 with size as opposed to the 4-3, and Denver can get to the QB unlike Seattle this year.  Denver ranks #1 in sack %.  Before I get into the pass defense of the Denver Broncos we all know that stopping the Panthers is going to be about stopping the run.  Denver ranks #1 in rushing yards per carry allowed.  I mentioned in my Panthers write up last week the size of the inner linebackers for the Cardinals was going to be a huge issue as they average 226lbs, but Denver averages 249.  Carolina has faced just 4 teams ranking in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry defense.  Tampa, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.  In reality those defenses really don’t scare you with the exception of Seattle and not any of these teams ranked top 10 in all 4 key pass defense categories that I look at – opponent pass yards per completion, sack % of drop backs, opponent QB rating, and opponent QB completion %.

Cam Newton only faced 2 teams this season ranked in the top 10 in passing defense completion %.  I bring that up, because I don’t think Cam Newton is very accurate.  I think he might have gotten lucky at late with some passes that were just beautifully thrown with poor foot work.  I think the Denver Broncos can get him into a lot of those situations because of their pass rush.  Carolina was 24th in completion % despite not playing any defenses that were very good at coverage and the Broncos rank 5th.  So how are we getting 6 points with a defense that is this good, and nothing like the Panthers have ever seen this season? 

Lastly, I’ll mention special teams because you often see it play such a huge factor in the Super Bowl.  Some will never take a team with the worse special teams in a match up, but according to football outsiders the Denver Broncos are 14th in special teams efficiency compared to the Panthers at 23rd.  

**PROP PLAYS**

Danny Trevathan - Total Solo+Assisted Tackles - Must Play

Take Over 7.5 -130 1.3* play to win 1

I really like Trevathan, who was one of the only guys that showed up in the Broncos last Super Bowl.  Trevathan had 12 combined tackles in that game.  I think the way the Panthers play fits right into Trevathan’s strengths here and I expect him to be all over the field especially since the Panthers like to run the ball a lot.

Cam Newton - Total Rushing Yards on First Attempt - Must Play

Under 5.5 yards -130 – 1.3* play to win 1

In just 4 games this year did Cam Newton have a rush over 5.5 yards as his first rush of the game.  He now faces the Denver Broncos the best rushing defense in terms of yards per carry, and they are 3rd in explosive runs allowed.

Panthers vs Broncos: Will Either Team Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game2016-02-07 18:30

No -120 1.2* PLAY 

Neither of these two teams move quickly.  They take a lot of time off per each drive.  Denver is also 5th in points allowed in the first quarter.  The first quarter is the lowest scoring quarter in Super Bowl History by a big margin which makes sense.  Most teams start by trying to feel each other out.

Vernon Davis Over 5.5 Receiving Yards +120 2* play

Vernon Davis returns to the 49ers Stadium for the Super Bowl.  He has gotten 0 targets over the last 4 games and Owen Daniels caught 2 TD’s in the last one, but I certainly feel Vernon Davis could be the X factor here.  I like everything I have read about Davis in terms of what he is saying to the media.  There have been stories that he has struggled to pick up the offense, but with 2 weeks to prepare Peyton Manning would be stupid not to get him into certain plays and the Panthers have shown vulnerabilities down field against teams like Seattle.  I really like what I’m hearing from Davis and this is great value. Davis has said this week in the media, “I’m back in Santa Clara where I grew up from a little boy to a man,” Davis said this week of his NFL upbringing with the 49ers. “I’m back here. My house is 12 minutes away. It’s been a great experience and I look forward to the rest.”

Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete +140 1.5* play I'm betting Newton's 1st pass will be incomplete. There is some good value in this play when you look because Cam Newton threw an incomplete pass in his first pass of the game in 8 of the 16 regular season games. That's despite playing just 4 teams in the top 10 in opponent completion %. His division was awful ranking 26th, 31st, and 32nd. Cam had a lot of games against some very bad teams in completion % defense and now he faces Denver who is ranked 5th with an elite secondary. 

I'm also going to take Came Newton Under 19.5 completions -115 1.15* playWhen you consider the fact that newton has completed more than 19.5 completion in just 7 out of the 18 games he's played this year and he goes up against the best defense then there is definite value on this play unless you think Denver is going to get up big in this game which is unlikely to happen with the Broncos offense. 

Emmanuel Sanders -22.5 yards vs. Ted Ginn 2.2* play I'm taking Sanders in this spot the guy has had 60+ yards receiving in 5 straight games while Ginn has really struggled with only 6 targets in his last 3 games combined. Corey Brown and Funchess are getting many more targets yet Ginn is known for his explosiveness, but the Broncos pass rush really takes that away. Ginn is hit or miss and I see him missing here today. He's had just 4 games of 80+ yards while Sanders has 9. Sanders also goes up against Cortland Finnegan who was retired in November, but came out of retirement due to the fact that Carolina lost 2 starting receivers. Sanders has been a Manning favorite.

 CJ Anderson to score a TD +160 1* play / Anderson to score Broncos 1st TD +400 0.5* play Anders has a rushing TD in 3 of his last 4 games and we all know Gary Kubiak's play calling ability is relentless with the running game and I see no reason why that won't change here. Carolina has allowed 4.3 ypc in their last 3 games and they are 24th in opponent rushing TD%. 

Manning to throw a passing TD first +130 1* play I see some good value on this play considering Manning goes up against the weaker secondary and has the better receiving weapons. I mentioned before the fact that Carolina's Cam Newton can be extremely inaccurate and if he's not throwing 20+ yard TD passes it's most likely the running game in the red zone. I see Manning being able to take advantage of some match ups early in this game before Carolina is able to make adjustments. Worth a look is Vernon Davis to score first TD at +4000. He's been a ghost, but still has the mismatch ability and we know Manning has liked the TE's, but tough to say if we see Davis in there in a crucial part of the game.

Panthers -3 5.5* NFL pod

Panthers -2 5.5* NFL POD

I am going with the Panthers in this spot for various reasons.  First of all it's good to note that I have probably faded the Panthers more times this season only to be proven wrong.  I did the same thing with Cam Newton when he was at Auburn only to come back and bet Auburn big late in that season to dominating wins.  I think I have learned my lesson and the value is extraordinary here with the Panthers.  I don't know any other situation where you'd have a 15-1 team going against an 11-6 team as an under dog.  I get they are 2 point favorites, but in everyone's eyes the Panthers are under dogs here today.  They have a lot to prove, and that same message is clear from Panther players this week in the media.

They still have to play the game and while I'm not a huge fan of betting a team that won in the regular season, but the Panthers certainly gained a ton of confidence in Seattle when they had their 4th quarter come back off back to back 80 yard TD drives to win the game.  TD drives is the key here, because Carolina is one of the best in the red zone at 72% TD rate at home.  The other thing to note is Cam Newton threw 2 INT's in that game, and Seattle had Jimmy Graham who caught 8 receptions for 140 yards and they still lost.  No Jimmy Graham this time, and the running game of Seattle is struggling so it's going to be on the shoulders of Russell Wilson.  Let's also not discount the travel that Seattle has had to under take this last week going out to Minnesota, back to Seattle, and now back to Carolina to play a 1pm game.

You could make an argument that Seattle has the better defense, but I would hesitate to agree.  When you look at what they did down the stretch hey held Minnesota to 7 and 10 points, Baltimore without Flaco to 6, Cleveland to 13, and Arizona who had zero incentive to play to 6 points, and they gave up 23 points to the Rams offense at home in a loss.  I think Seattle's defense is very good, but they haven't really faced many top offenses.  They faced Arizona/Pittsburgh the two top YPP offenses and both scored over 30 points on them when it mattered. The Bengals were 9th and put up 27 on Seattle, and Carolina is 12th and put up 27 on the Seahawks.  So the Seahawks defense played only 5 games against top 12 offenses in the league and when you take out Arizona in week 17 because they were seriously not interested in showing anything, they allowed an average of 30.75 points per game.

Carolina's defense faced the following top 12 offenses: New Orleans - 22 points allowed, Tampa 23, Seattle 23, Washington 16, New Orleans 38, Atlanta 0, Giants 35, Atlanta 20, Tampa 10.  To summarize they faced 9 teams in the top 12 in yards per play offense and allowed 20.78 points per game.  The Panthers gave up some big numbers late and I feel those were due to injuries.  I expect this team to be a lot healthier and it also pays to play at home where they are #1 in yards per point.

I expect this game to be close in the first half with low scoring, but we have seen these defenses loosen up quite a bit in the 4th quarter of games.  I would expect if this game is close at the half for the total to go over in the second half.  Also something to look at as you feel this game out. 

Patriots -4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I really like the Pats here in this spot given the fact that they are off the bye, getting healthier and off 2 straight losses.  The Patriots will return some key guys for this one including LT Volmer who protects Brady’s blind side.  I also think this team will be coached up to handle the Chiefs blitz schemes and will have a good game plan to move the ball and put points on the board.

For the Chiefs they come in red hot, and off a 30-0 victory last week.  Very impressive we cashed with the Chiefs as well but 8 of their 11 wins during this streak have been against the bottom teams in the league.  The 3 wins were against teams that were arguably not at their best.  Texans win was very easy to see when we saw Hoyer turning the ball over so many times.  The Patriots have just 14 turnovers on the year the fewest among any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs heavily rely on winning the turnover margin and are 0-4 ATS when they don’t this year.

KC also beat Pittsburgh, but they beat them with Landry Jones at QB the 3rd string QB.  They then also beat the Broncos, but again the Broncos had Osweiler making his first start in that game.  Winning 11 games straight in the NFL is not easy by any stretch, but KC certainly had a lot of luck along the way.  They also are more banged up here with 2 offensive lineman being out, and Jeremy Maclin being questionable.  Maclin is their only deep threat, and with Kelce the only other threat in the passing game will make it very difficult for the Chiefs to move the ball.  I’d be shocked if they got to 20 points, and I see the Patriots scoring 24-31 here.  Also worth noting is what happened last year when these two met in KC where the Chiefs blew the Patriots out and everyone was saying the Patriots were done.  I’m sure somehow that is motivating to someone with the Patriots and it will show up tomorrow. 

Cardinals -1 with Broncos -1 4.4* teaser+

Let’s start with Arizona over Green Bay. It’s clear to me that the Cardinals are the better team, but the Pack just came off an impressive win on the road over the Redskins.  I don’t see it happening again this week.  In order for this offense to have success hey must run the ball, and I can’t see them doing against the front 7 of the Cardinals which is a top 10 run defense unit allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The Redskins were ranked 30th against the run and it was a clear issue.

I also don’t believe much has changed for the two teams since they last met and the Cardinals are actually a little healthier.  Cards have been waiting on this game and I just think they are the better overall team.

Denver Broncos –

To me I saw that Peyton Manning is very close to 100% with the foot.  He was able to take snaps under center and hand the ball off.  Manning didn’t play for weeks and now he’s ready to go in the playoffs.  I think that’s perfect, because the last few seasons he was fighting injuries in the playoffs and now he’s actually fresh.  For the Steelers Antonio Brown is ruled out, and they do have other weapons, but I’m not sure Big Ben can throw down the field if he plays the entire game.  His arm is not near 100%, and I think the Broncos actually knock him out of this game.  The Broncos defense is the best in the league and they are at home with the extra week of rest.  The road teams won last week, but I’m betting that the home teams are victorious this week.

Clemson +7 5.5* NCAAF POD

The game between Michigan State and Alabama very well could have been 10-7 or even 0-0 at the half, but everything went Alabamas way at the end of the half with the interception with Michigan State trying to go in with an interception.  That was a huge momentum change in this game with Alabama taking the ball to start the second half.

They give up the TD to start the second half and go down 17-0, I think they came out with the running game was a little stupid for the Spartans offense that had so much success on their last drive before the half before throwing an interception. I thought at that point they needed to hand it over to cook and go no huddle, because it allowed Alabamas front to have issues and they had success moving the ball.  But they were not agressive enough and the game got further away and it almost seemed like Michigan State was beaten in the first 5 minutes of the third quarter.  During the game there are a few things I noted and compared with Clemson as reasons why I feel completely comfortable backing Clemson in this game.

Michigan State receivers also had many drops. I like the fact that Deshaun Watson can spread the ball around more to his receivers finding the weakness in the defense, and he’ll have more balance with the running game that should keep Alabama’s defense on edge.

Michigan State’s special teams.  Nearly every game Alabama has made a play in their special teams to change the game, and again it happened in the third quarter against the Spartans on a punt return TD.  Michigan State had one of the worst STE in the country at 108th,  Clemson is at 89th not much better, but I don’t see Alabama again making those type of plays against Clemson.  Clemson is very poor in kick off return coverage allowing 2 TD’s on the season, but that’s not at all where Alabama excels.  In fact Alabama has only averaged 18.94 yards per kick off return.  Alabama has 5 TD’s on punt returns this year and that’s where the danger is, but enter Clemson’s punt return coverage which is very good only allowing 15 returns on the season for 85 yards where Michigan State allowed well over 250 yards and 2 TD’s with an average of 12.81.  I think Clemson can eliminate the special teams game for Alabama although they may sacrifice some field position.

Michigan State found a weakness.Before the half Michigan State picked up the pace and let Connor Cook run the offense and it did not allow Alabama to substitute along their defensive line which is the reason they are so strong.  Depth is probably Alabama’s biggest strength.  Michigan State is not used to moving fast and of course they did not make that adjustment in the second half of this game.  Clemson however will likely use that in my opinion and it will come a lot more natural to them with the 13th ranked pace in the country (Michigan State is 70th).  With that fact comes time of possession and Michigan State defense was on the field way too much.  I think Clemson will have an easier time despite being 13th in pace they are actually 23rd in ball control with 32:23 minutes of TOP, but 34:58 over their last 3 games.  Alabama is 4th and this could be what decides this game overall, but I don’t see it being lopsided like it was in the Cotton Bowl.

Michigan States offensive line struggled against a 4 man rush.  Is Clemson’s offense line better or just as good?  Well let’s look at the numbers.  Clemson’s offensive line is ranked 8th in sack rate at 3.06% which is extremely impressive.  Most systems with mobile QB’s have a very high sack rate, but they are top 10 in the country (Alabama is 42nd), Michigan State was 32nd.  Clemson is also ranked very high in adjusted line yards at #9, 12th on standard downs, 27th on passing downs, 5th in power success and so on.  To put those numbers in perspective Michigan State ranks 49th in adjusted line yards, 93rd on standard down, 65th on passing downs, and 14th in power success.  Overall I would say this is the best offensive line Alabama’s defensive line has had to face from a numbers perspective and vice versa.

Can Clemson stop the run like Michigan State? Spartans stopped the run of Henry holding him to under 100 yards just as I predicted, but Coker just ripped them up going 25-30 against the man defense.  Clemson can absolutely do the same thing in the running game.  Clemson was impressive in the game against Oklahoma despite losing their best DE in Shaq Lawson who I expect to play on Monday.  Even if he doesn’t Clemson’s line held up well against Oklahoma who was a top 20 rushing offense.  Clemson is ranked 25th in rushing defense, 13th in rushing S&P+ and has faced many top rushing programs including 6 in the top 30 (3 in the top 15).  Florida State is the only team that got close to their season average and they did so on 1 long play from a more explosive RB in Cook.  Clemson absolutely should be able to force this into a game where Coker beats them.

Is Clemson secondary more talented? Do they give up the big plays like Michigan State struggled with.  This could be the biggest question that decides this game, because Michigan State was very highly regarded, but their secondary obviously was not as good this year.  Clemson ranks 2nd overall in completion % (Mich State 85th), 7th in opposing QB passer rating (Michigan State 68th), 15th in passing yards allowed per attempt (Michigan State 77th).  Clemson has some big safeties and can spend a lot of time in the nickel without the threat of giving up big running plays due to the size of their safeties Jayron Kearse is 6’4 and 210lbs and Travis Blanks is a hybrid LB that is probably the X factor here who can cover Alabama’s TE.  There is a reason why Clemson was #1 in opponent third down conversion % on the year.

Can Clemson have a better day rushing the passer? There were times in the game where Michigan State was just a half second too slow.  That may be where the difference of 4 star athletes will come in to play.  Clemson has the 3rd ranked sack rate unit right behind Alabama.  They sacked Oklahoma on 10.42% of their drop backs, and Alabama is 42nd in protecting their QB an obvious risk for them if they are going to come out throwing the ball.  Overall I have complete faith in Brent Venables as a defensive coordinator getting Clemson into the right situations.  He’s been doing this a long long time where Michigan State has two co-defensive coordinators something I would not like.

Coker got way too comfortable against Michigan State and I don’t see that happening here against Clemson who have better athletes and a better secondary to frustrate this offense.

What did I notice from Clemson’s game?  Clemson clearly has a better running offense with the added dynamic of Watson, as their RB is very under rated running the option Watson and RB Wayne Gallman have both rushed for more than 1,000 yards.  However, Watson is the best player on the field and the best QB Alabama has faced.  Alabama’s defense has recruited to stop this type of QB, but they haven’t really seen anyone quite like Watson.  Watson has really impressed me on the field and off the field and I think he’s just as good of a thrower.  He’s made the occasional mistake including the dumb throw before the half against Oklahoma, but in big games this year his team has taken care of the ball.  Notre Dame, Florida State, UNC, and Oklahoma they are +7 in TO margin and +1 or more in each of those games.  Clemson can be positive in this next game and they will be national champions. Watson also just as good throwing the ball if not better than Cook.

Clemson just seems like a team of destiny to me.  Although it will not be easy.  I think this is a close game no matter how you look at it. Clemson really could have named their score against Oklahoma.  They had arguably the more impressive game against a better opponent.  However, they still feel like they are being disrespected.  This game is and should be a hell of a game, but my money is on Clemson to shock the nation.

NOTE: If you can’t get this at +7 wait and monitor the line movements.  Public money should push this back up to 7 at some point over the weekend or on Monday, but I would still be a buyer at +6.5.

Redskins -108 5.5* NFL POD

There is not one game in the recent future that makes me feel comfortable backing the Packers here today.  Most of the public action will be on the Packers here today because of Aaron Rodgers, but there is just something that isn’t right about him.  This team scored a combined 21 points in their last 2 games to close out the season and a good Packers team does not lose a meaningful home game at the end of the season.  In fact the Packers lost games down the stretch to each of their division opponents. Green Bay’s offense is ranked 29th in the league in yards per play offense.  That’s a shocking stat I don’t think many would anticipate and they are averaging 3.9 yards per play over their last 3 games combined.

The Redskins on the other hand are 10th in the league in yards per play and have many more offensive weapons for Kirk Cousins to throw to.  They are also averaging 6.7 over their last 3 combined.  Washington 7th in protecting their QB while the Packers are 24th and are allowing Rodgers to be sacked 12.5% of his drop backs.  Part of it is his offensive line and the other part is nobody is open.  At the end of the day I trust the Redskins to move the ball better and control this game especially at home.  DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, and even Jamison Crowder are some real weapons that will be the difference in this game.

Washington at home this year allowing 31.25% TD percentage in the red zone which should be a major challenge for the Packers who are coming into this game 18th overall in red zone TD%, and over their last 3 have been successful 18.18% of the time.  Washington on the other hand comes in at 61.22% and 68% at home.  Turnovers are another key and Washington does not turn the ball over at home.  In fact Cousins has 16 TD’s to 2 Interceptions.  Today will be a challenge for Cousins going up against a top 10  pass defense, but I think he can score enough points to win this game. 

Vikings +10.5  & U46.5 3.3* Teaser

We will have extreme cold conditions on Sunday in this rematch of early December.  Usually you’d like the revenge factor with the Vikings losing 38-7 last time out and the reason I like this game to be a lot closer is the fact that the Vikings are healthy on defense returning 3 starters for this game.  Mike Zimmer also one of the top defensive minds in the game will have a better game plan for Wilson and company here in the cold temperatures they are expected to be facing.

These are two teams ranked in the top 5 in third down defense, and red zone defense.  Two offenses that are of the slower in the league in pace and both are in the top 10 in giveaways per game.  They just don’t turn the ball over so this game is going to be something that’s played very conservatively.  For the Seahawks I expect a little bit of a slow start playing at 10AM which is going to keep the Vikings in this game late.

Bengals +120 4* NFL POD

This is a risky move playing the Bengals today given this coaching staff has been around forever and they still can’t win a playoff game, but maybe it helps that they are facing an opponent they are very familiar with in their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are coming in with way too much hype, and have been out gained in 3 of their last 4 games.  I’m taking the home dog here, with the better running game and defense.  The Steelers now on their 3rd RB with DeAngelo Williams declared out for this game, and I think that falls into the advantage of the Bengals who will give up yards on the ground.  Cinci has held Big Ben under 300 yards passing in both games, and are going to make it extremely difficult for him to score.

The Bengals offensively are guided by A.J. McCarron today with Dalton being declared out, and it’s funny because McCarron is getting absolutely no respect, and I think I’d want to back a guy like this who has done nothing but win in his career.  Granted he played with Alabama, but he has the more talented team surrounding him here today and I think he plays smart football giving the Bengals a win.  The Bengals are actually better in the red zone 5th in fact in TD%, while the Steelers are 10th and the Bengals are 5th in defense, and are only allowing 33.3% TD’s in the red zone at home while the Steelers are allowing 55.56% on the road. 

That would mean this game comes down to the Big plays.  If the Bengals can eliminate them they should win this game.  The Steelers are 5th in Big play % and ironically 47 have been from running while 43 are in the passing game.  The Bengals are 2nd in big plays allowed in the running game, and 2nd in opponent big play passing games.  Another thing people don’t typically take a look at is special teams and the Bengals are much better in that department than the Steelers.

Detroit Lions -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Lions have very quietly played the best football down the stretch going 5-2, and completely turning their season around after a 1-7 start.  Matthew Stafford has been extremely impressive with a 16 to 2 TD/INT ratio since the Lions fired Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator.  Sometimes you see these moves that make absolutely no difference, but it was clear the offense was not responding to Lombardi.  Even at 5-2 the Lions should have been 7-0 when you consider how they lost those two games.  A hail mary by Rodgers, and I thought they had out played the Rams earlier this month as well.

The Lions also likely playing for their head coach here.  Jim Caldwell on the hot seat where John Fox is not and I think that’s a huge difference in this match up that gives the Lions the edge.  One of the leaders in the Lions locker room made it very obvious that the Lions players want Caldwell back.  Calvin Johnson is arguably the biggest name on the Lions and I expect that when he comes out and says something in the public that it’s pretty much the majority feeling of the team.  Johnson stating – “Love him.  Everybody in the locker room would probably say the same thing. He commands respect.. Guys gravitate towards him.”

The Lions are just playing better right now, and the Bears do not own a home field advantage going 8-22-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2011 season and are 1-6 at home this season

Florida +4.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

This game is all about perception and the wrong team is favored here.  Florida is playing in their home state in Orlando, and to me has all the advantages in a match up between two teams that mirror each other in a lot of ways.  Both teams have excellent 1st year head coaches.  Both teams have run first mentalities backed by superior defenses.  On paper it appears Florida has the better defense and Michigan the better offense.  Florida really struggled down the stretch and were ripped apart by the media, but they got healthier for the SEC Championship and hung with Alabama, while Michigan wasn’t even close against Ohio State exposing a lot of weaknesses in the Michigan defense.

On paper both of these teams need to run the ball, and I think Florida will have a better opportunity here considering they have a mobile QB that can run the option in Treon Harris.  This is a big step up in competition for Jake Rudock.  In wins this year Michigan has averaged 4.57 yards per carry and in loses 2.24.  Same goes for Florida with 3.74 and 2.15 in losses.  The same goes on the defensive side of the ball for both teams.  Michigan in wins held opponents to 3.21 ypc and 4.47 in their losses while Florida came in 2.91 ypc allowed in wins, and 4.64 in their losses which I have to mention were against the 3 best running backs in football in Delvin Cook, Leonard Fournette (both should have been Heisman candidates), and the Heisman winner Derrick Henry.  Michigan does not have a guy like this and truly lacks any kind of explosive players.  So much so that they had to bring defensive players on this side of the ball in Jabrill Peppers.

Strength of schedule factors in here for both sides of the ball because Michigan is some what of a fake strong defense having faced just two teams ranked in the top 50 in yards per play and they gave up 41 and 42 to them while Florida faced 6 top 50 offenses and allowed 19.5 ppg.  Florida truly has the most complete defense here.  Their pass defense is clearly better with Vernon Hargreaves back there, and the 4th ranked sack % unit, but the run defense is what I’m impressed with as they faced 8 top 50 units and still finished as one of the best in the nation where Michigan’s defense faced just 3 in the top 50.

Okay, so Michigan’s offense looks better on paper, and especially their running game, but have a look here as Florida faced 9 top 50 run defenses and averaged 22ppg against those.  While Michigan faced only 7 and averaged 21 ppg against those.  Florida had the better game against a similar strength of opponent in their last game as Florida gave Alabama a fight, but Michigan was dominated by their rival Ohio State.  I also don’t trust the team that’s more rusty here and although I have a ton of respect for Jim Harbough this team is not ready to be a 4.5 point favorite against a defense like Florida. 

Clemson +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

When is the last time you saw a #1 team getting 4 points like this on a neutral field.  Oklahoma got a lot of credit down the stretch, and a lot of people are saying Clemson has not played anyone and again are getting zero respect which plays right into the hands of Dabo Sweeney's motivation tactics.  What else does this team have to do?  They beat Oklahoma in last year's bowl game with Deshaun Watson, beat Ohio State the year before and LSU the year before.  Oklahoma has come up small in big games for quite a while going 2-5 in their last 7 BCS bowl games and 0-3 in national championships.  It's also worth noting that Oklahoma faced the tough part of their schedule with a lot of luck.  What I mean by that is they did not have to go up against the starting QB of any of the final 4 teams in Iowa State (almost lost), Baylor, TCU (almost lost), and Oklahoma State.  This is also the team that got extremely lucky early in the season to beat Tennessee.  I'm just not buying them as a 4 point favorite here and let's look at some more facts.

Clemson is by far the best defense that Oklahoma has faced, they also have the best QB they have faced all year.  When you consider Oklahoma struggled when they did face mobile QB's.  They were lucky and missed a few good ones, but they faced Texas Heard who rushed for 115 rushing yards when the two faced off.  Watson is far superior as poses a passing threat with a canon of an arm.  Watson only got better as the season went along.  The issue Oklahoma is going to have in this game and probably the reason I like them the most is Clemson's front 7 havoc rate.  Clemson is 3rd in sack% and Oklahoma is 104th in sacked %.   Baker Mayfield is used to running for his life but not against this caliber of a secondary that held opponents to 46.1 completion percentage and picked off opponents 14 times.  Clemson had a net of 49 tackles for loss while Oklahoma came in at +5, but allowed 80 tackles for loss.  A huge reason why they only converted 44% of their third downs.  Clemson has held opponents to 24.87% conversions on third downs.

If you were initially liking Oklahoma and you still are not sold, because of the suspensions announced today.  Deon Cain was not a huge part of this offense.  He had 11% of the receptions and another player will step up.  What makes Watson so good is he is able to spread the ball around which makes this Oklahoma's most difficult assignment.  I think Oklahoma also the more rustier team having not played in a championship game and I think that may be the reason they struggle in these late bowl games.  Clemson also had some turnover issues -2 on the season while Oklahoma is at +10, but what really impressed me is they were positive in their three biggest games.  When Clemson played Notre Dame they were +3, Florida State +2, and North Carolina +1.  Turnovers were not an issue when Clemson knew they had to be at their best.  I'll back Clemson here and I hope I have given you plenty of confidence to do so as well!

NC State +6.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

NC State has to be playing this bowl game with a chip on their shoulder.  This is a very well coached team under Dave Doeren.  Ironically they face off an SEC team they have a lot in common with.  Both are nearly identical in pace, and yards per play on offense and defense.  They both played identical games against their common opponent Troy and had very easy non-conference schedules.  They both feature a senior QB with experience that does not turn the ball over.  I did not want to make the assumption a lot of people do with the SEC over an ACC or other conference so I went back to look at recent history.

Recent history suggests the value is considerably on NC State’s side when you consider these two teams are on the same level in their respective conferences, lost to teams they were supposed to and beat the teams they were supposed to.  THE SEC is actually 7-9 since losing the national championship to the ACC in 2014 against the ACC.  This year they went just 4-3, and what is shocking is how well the ACC played against some of the top tier teams.  For instance Syracuse covered a large spread with ease over LSU, Kentucky lost by 14 to Louisville (both on the same level), Florida got blown out by Florida State (again on the same level), South Carolina nearly upset Clemson, but other than that the ACC played much better than the SEC for the second year in a row.

I don’t think much separates these two teams and it should be the little things that matter.  I’ve never been a big fan of Nick Mullen he’s 3-2 in bowl games, but has lost the last two against power 5 conferences.  He lost to the ACC’s Georgia Tech by 14 as a 6 point favorite last year, and lost by 14 as a +1.5 point dog in 2013 to Northwestern.  These teams are fairly similar in all statistical categories the major differences are Miss State’s not as balanced they throw the ball more than nearly everyone in the country while NC State is more balanced.  I think it’s important to note the strength of NC State’s front line as they rank 18th in sack %, while Miss State ranks 82nd, and 72nd in protection.  So that’s another key here, but turnover margin will likely decide this game and Miss State was -5, while NC State was +10 as they only had 11 turnovers on the season.  Miss State really struggled with the running game, and with that they fumbled a lot.  I trust Dave Doeren will have his team motivated and ready to play in their home state as he improves to 3-0 in bowl games.

Baylor +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

This has extreme value in my book for many reasons.  Baylor’s experienced defense will be the difference in this game in my opinion.  Especially since they will be without their top running back, and receiver, but do get their third string QB back in Chris Johnson.  I really don’t feel like Johnson got a real opportunity to showcase his talent, and I think that is a huge reason we are getting value here.  Johnson is an athletic freak that I think will really hurt this North Carolina defense that gave up over 600 yards to Clemson.  Baylor is also a run first team and has been the last few years so I don’t think these injuries impact them as much as the line movement suggests.

All the public really remembers is this team struggling down the stretch, but they won many games with this defense and are ranked 30th in yards per play.  North Carolina’s offense has only faced 2 top 40 unit in yards per play defense, and just 1 team in top 40 yards per play offense, but in this bowl game they will face a team that is top 30 in both.  Gene Chizik is getting all kinds of credit for improving a defense that gave up 16.4 points per game more in 2014, but the fact of the matter is strength of schedule.  In 2014, North Carolina played a whopping total of 8 teams in the top 50 in offense, and this year they played just 2 with a lot of bad offenses along the way.

The last thing I will mention is the fact that these two conferences are pretty even.  The Big 12 is 12-11 vs. the ACC in bowl games with an average differential of 0.3 ppg.  I believe the ACC defenses have made this UNC offense look better than they really are.  The ACC is 1-3 ATS in bowl games in 2015, and featured 3 of the better defenses in the conference in Duke, Pitt, and Virginia Tech and all 3 gave up a ton of points 41, 44, and 52.  North Carolina had huge issues at the end of the year stopping the run allowing 300+ yards in their last 2 games and I think that’s the strategy Baylor takes in this game as the defense also steps up.  This is an experienced unit that returned 9 of 11 starters.

Browns +11.5 5.5* NFL POD

1-7 ATS their last 8, Chiefs 7-1 ATS their last 8, but I’m going to back the Browns here.  Manziel looked good against Seattle despite his team losing 30-13.  This is the second week in a row that the Browns are double digit dogs, and the second week in a row that the Chiefs are double digit favorites.  The Chiefs were 10.5 point favorites against San Diego and nearly got taken to OT as their offense scored just 10 points.  This is a conservative coaching staff and again will be in a MUST win game and we should expect nothing more than a conservative approach.  I expect the Browns to play hard, and I don’t think they have mailed it in.  Manziel wants to prove something down the stretch, and I think this is far too many points not to get excited about. 

Nebraska +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I’m not sure UCLA can get up for playing a team that’s 5-7.  Nebraska however, had 5 losses by 5 points or fewer.  Nebraska definitely has a lot of motivation in this game when you consider they are 1 of 3 teams with 5 wins. They also lost to UCLA the last two years, and this is a very different Nebraska team compared to the team UCLA played the last few years.  Nebraska will chuck the ball around the field, and they can stop the run.  Nebraska is 8th in the nation in stopping the run, and that’s an important factor in this game as UCLA will rely heavily on their running game.  They average over 200 yards per game in their 8 wins, but under 150 in their losses.  Nebraska has not allowed a single opponent over 200 yards rushing this season and just 3 over 150.  I’m expecting that stat to be a big reason why this is a close game and with nearly a TD to play with the value is on Nebraska.

I mentioned motivation for Nebraska who has several players quoting how great of an opportunity this game is.  Offensive lineman Ryne Reeves said, “I think it’s a great opportunity for us to show that we’re a better team than what our record says.”  I also love the fact that they lost twice to UCLA in recent memory and that their head coach Mike Riley beat Jim Mora when he was at Oregon State.

The biggest key in this game though is Tommy Armstrong.  Nebraska will lose if we get the very bad Tommy, but they can still cover this spread with him throwing a couple of picks, but I think what he will bring to the table is his mobility in this game.  Armstrong averages over 5 yards per carry when he is not sacked and the UCLA defense has had plenty of issues with the few mobile QB’s they have faced this year.  Jim Mora’s teams have had so many issues against athletic QB’s since he’s been here and Armstrong is arguably the best one he will face this year.  I think Armstrong will be the difference in this game, this team is better in the red zone because of him converting TD’s at a 71% clip compared to UCLA’s average 61%, they defend on third downs and in the red zone.  Nebraska’s biggest weakness is their pass defense, but they are more of a bend but don’t break unit, and against Josh Rosen I think they can force him into mistakes.  Nebraska is far better in special teams ranked 28th in efficiency to UCLA’s 71st, and their defense can create more negative plays.  I think the Pac 12 is down a bit this year, and there is not much that separates them from the Big 10 when you look at head to heads this year I would say the Big 10 is the better conference.  Pac 12 went 2-3 this season vs. the Big 10, and were embarrassed in the national championship game last year as Oregon lost to Ohio State.  Their only wins were questionable with Washington State barely getting by Rutgers 37-34, and Michigan losing at Utah to open the season because of a ton of turnovers.  Otherwise Northwestern beat Stanford by 10 the PAC 12’s best team, and Michigan State handled Oregon while Michigan also handled Oregon State.

San Diego State -1.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

I’ll take the Aztecs in this game who do not have to travel nearly as far as Cincinnati for the Hawaii Bowl.  I also think the Bearcats programs is in shamble’s a bit, and having to travel to Hawaii with a young team is not going to help.  For San Diego State they have already made this trip this year and did so in great fashion.  I have been impressed by Rocky Long’s quotes the week they went to Hawaii and how he had his team prepared and I expect nothing different here.  It also does not hurt that this matchup is something I also love.

First of all both starting QB’s are out for this game, and Cinci who relies much more on their QB are going to have a very tough time against San Diego State’s defense that runs a unique 3-3-5 defense that I’m not sure Hayden Moore has seen much of.  Moore also will take a lot of chance and very prone to turning the ball over.  In fact Cinci is one of the worst teams in TO margin ranking 124th, while San Diego State come in ranked 1st overall.  It’s a huge advantage for San Diego State that will most likely show up in the game.  Cinci also going to have a hard time running the ball against Rocky Long’s bunch as they ranked 8th in run defense.  Cincinnati is 0-5 losing by an average margin of 14 when they don’t rush for over 150 yards.

So I mentioned earlier that Cinci is in shambles.  There are all kinds of rumors about Tuberville retiring, and their OC moving on to Kentucky.  Along with that is the fact that their starting QB Gunner Kiel, a 5 star leader on this team wont’ be traveling due to personal reasons that have been announced as a pain killer addiction.  Really sad story, but this team is 0-5 vs. the top 50 in the nation.  San Diego State, a team that will rely on the run heavily and won’t be hurt by the fact they will be without their QB as much.  Donnell Pumphrey, a dynamic back should be the MVP of this game or I’ll be shocked as the Bearcats have allowed over 5 yards per carry on the season.  I also like the fact that San Diego State is less penalized on the season, ranked 6th in special teams (Cinci – 74th), +22 in tackles for loss compared to -12, and +14 in sacks compared to -10 for the Bearcats.  This could be another blow out for the Hawaii Bowl. 

Georgia Southern +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This is Georgia Southern’s first bowl game and while they have a tough task against Bowling Green’s up tempo high flying offense I think they have the right match up here.  Georgia Southern is the #1 rushing offense in the nation, and 10th in time of possession.  Bowling Green has struggled against all 4 top 50 rushing offenses they have faced giving up TD’s, and a lot of rushing yards while going 2-2 in those games.  I think there is a lot more for Georgia Southern to play for in their first bowl game.

Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt last year, but were held out of a bowl at 9-3 because it was their first year as an FBS team.  When you look at what this team has done over the last 3 years you should be pretty impressed.  In 2013 they beat the Florida Gators, in 2014, they lost to Georgia Tech and NC State by a combined 5 points, and as I mentioned won the Sun Belt.  This year they go 8-4, but crush the MAC’s own Western Michigan 43-17, and they lose in OT to Georgia.  They come off a loss to Georgia State and that’s why they are getting no respect in this game, but there is something to say about a triple option team and Georgia Southern runs it arguably better than anyone.  There is a good reason why this team did well in their first year in the Sun Belt, just like Navy did with their triple option in their first year in the AAC.

I don’t see Bowling Green being able to prepare for this triple option.  There is absolutely no history facing the triple option, and Bowling Green is without their head coach Dino Babers who head to Syracuse.  This team is not content with the MAC Championship, but I don’t see how well they will be prepared for the triple option especially when you consider their defensive coordinator will be the interim coach here and he too is going to Syracuse.  I guess I should have a bit more respect for a coach that sticks around for the kids, but I don’t see him giving it 100% in preparation.

There are a few other things to like about Georgia Southern as they are very opportunistic grabbing 15 interceptions, and they have a significant advantage in penalties nearly penalized 4 fewer times and special teams ranking 47th while Bowling Green ranks 119th in special teams efficiency.  Both teams are really good at what they do best which is offense.  Bowling Green is more balanced, but likes to do it more with the pass while Georgia Southern will run it down your throat and I feel like they can really take Bowling Green out of their rhythm here considering they dominated with over 33 minutes in time possession compared to under 30 for Bowling Green who ranked 92nd in TOP.

Giants +4 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Giants who need to win every game, the Carolina Panthers have already clinched a playoff bye and while they should be motivated to play for the undefeated season, but they are banged up a bit right now.  The Giants have 7 loses this year and 5 have been by 4 points or less and when you look at who the Panthers on the road it’s just 1 potential playoff team in the Seahawks so they have really had an easy run on the road and I see their perfect season coming to an end against the Giants on Sunday who are the perfect team to give them trouble.

L.A. Tech -1 5.5* NCAAF POD

There is no question that Tech comes out of the better conference in C-USA vs. the Sunbelt.  Conference USA was 4-1 in bowl games last year and 15-6 over the last 4 bowl seasons while the Sun Belt went 1-2 last year and 6-6 over the last 4 years.  There is no question Tech comes from the better conference that regularly plays more power 5 opponents (25 this season).  Tech also comes off two very ugly games where they did not come close to covering the spread, missing by 23 and 39 points.  The market has adjusted quite a bit for this show down in New Orleans.

Arkansas State ran the table in the Sun Belt and to me that just shows you how bad this conference has been which has led to some inflated numbers for Arkansas State who likes to run the ball 61% of the time with Gordon at RB, and Fredi Knighten at QB.  In wins they rush for a 5.65 yards per carry while losses they average just 2.41.  This team has played some pretty terrible run defenses along the way including 4 that rank at the bottom ranking 120th, 121st, 126th, and 127th.  Today they face LA Tech who is built to stop the run ranking 12th in the country led by future NFL DT – Vernon Butler.  In Arkansas State’s 3 games against run stopping units they lost, and LA Tech’s 13th ranking in yds per carry allowed should be enough to get the job done.

L.A. Tech also has an explosive offense that will key on not turning the ball over.  They lost big in their division championship against Southern Miss by turning the ball over 7 times.  That’s especially important against Arkansas State who has lived on the turnover.  If L.A. Tech protects the ball they win this game going away by double digits.  I’m betting they will when you consider 33% of their seasons 21 turnovers came in one game.  Jeff Driskel has been great all year, and Kenneth Dixon is one of the best RB’s in the country that nobody knows about with 83 career rushing TD’s.  This team is excited to be here and should win this game.

Jaguars -2.5 5.5* NFL POD

The Jaguars are 4-8, but I feel like they are the better team here right now.  They have not been as fortunate as the Colts this season, and the Colts again are having injury issues with their QB.  Matt Hasselback will make the start, but he’s banged up with the ribs.  The Jaguars got lit up in the 4th quarter in their last game, but that was to a mobile QB in Marcus Mariotta, this is a completely different situation here.  The Colts also could be peaking ahead to their showdown with the Texans next week who they are tied with in the division, but let’s not sleep on the Jaguars even at 4-8.  They get Atlanta at home next week, followed by road games at New Orleans and Houston and could very much be alive to a spot in the playoffs.

The Jaguars want a little revenge for their loss on the road against the Colts in OT where they clearly out played them in Indy.  Bortles had a good game without a turnover and T.J. Yeldon rushed for 105 yards, but they lost that game.  The Jaguars are the much healthier team right now, and just because Hasselback is 4-1 people are expecting that success to continue when in reality he could easily be 0-5 as he has been out gained in every single start.  I see nothing different here if nothing else it will be worse with Hassleback being limited or could get knocked out of this game with the first hit.

Army/Navy U50.5 4.4* POD

I really like the under here, because both teams know how to prepare for each others offenses.  Army has had some extra time here playing last on 11/21, while Navy played in the Championship game last week something they are not used to, but I don't anticipate it having an impact on this game.  I leaned towards Army, but this is Navy's best defense since 2009 from a yards per play perspective and rushing yards perspective  That was the year Army was held to 3 points in this match up.  This is actually Army's worst offense since 2010, but their defense has stepped up it's their best run defense since 2010.  I still think Navy can score wouldn't be surprised by a 31-7 final by any means which would get Navy the cover, but the fact remains both these teams love to hang onto the football, but both know how to defend each other's offense.  

All 3 service academies run the triple option, and all know how to defend it and it has resulted in the under 28-8-2 over the last 12 years when any of the 3 have played each other including 10-1-1 on the under in this game.  I expect similar things this year despite Navy having a better offense than in years past.  It's good to know that they had an extra week of playing and haven't had a bye since early October.  This offense only has 1 more yard per game than last years offense that Army held to 282 yards and 17 points.

Raiders +125 5.5* POD

The Chiefs are really banged up right now and going back on the road where they have found success of late in division play winning at Denver, and again at San Diego, but in reality they found both of those teams at the right time.  Denver had 3 of their better defenders injured in that game, and San Diego has been rattled with injuries all year long.  In this game it’s the Chiefs with the injuries to the offensive line, now their best defensive player Justin Houston which will dramatically change that pass rush.

The Chiefs have been playing well lately, and you have to give them credit, but they are forcing 14 turnovers over their last 5 games which have left this offense looking better than it really is.  Oakland is tied for 4th in fewest interceptions thrown per game so unless they start fumbling the ball they should be in good shape here.

Oakland at home is a huge advantage, and I like the way the QB is playing ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion percentage despite having literally no running game.  KC ranks 20th in 3rd down conversions, and are even worse on the road this year.  Oakland’s defense is going to get the brunt of the disrespect in this one, but they have been pretty good at home allowing just 32% conversions on third down which gives them a match up advantage here, and that has trickled into their red zone defense which is ranked 11th overall, but at home they are allowing just 45% TD’s.  KC who is known to have the better defense comes into this one ranked 29th allowing 64.52%, and 65% on the road.  Oakland also top 10 in the red zone TD% scoring 61% of the time and 64% at home which again says a lot considering this team does not have a running game.  KC ranks 21st at 51%. 

Southern Miss +8 5.5* NCAAF POD W/ +260 1* BONUS ON ML

 A lot of people are going to look at Western Kentucky, see what they did against Marshall (49-28 win), last year’s CUSA team, and see what Southern Miss has done the last few seasons (4 total wins last 3), and see their loss 10-31 on the road against Marshall and automatically assume big win here for Western Kentucky, but I think Southern Miss will shock a lot of people here.

First of all the conference stats don’t lie, and Southern Miss is better at stopping the run, running the ball, and pass defense.  Add in the fact that Southern Miss has faced the 2 most difficult Conference USA opponents (LA Tech, and Marshall) on the road while Western Kentucky played them at home, and it makes me really respect them more.  Shoot Western Kentucky even played Middle Tennessee at home, the last CUSA team with a winning record (there are only 5).

Both teams want to pass the ball here, but Southern Miss is much more balanced, and I see Western Kentucky giving up on the run early in this game.  Southern Miss allowing 3.27 yards per carry in conference play and has a couple of former power 5 recruits on the defensive line.  I mentioned early in the season how much I liked this team and Monken in his 3rd year coaching I knew it was going to be a good one and we have benefited along the way by backing this team.  They still aren’t getting any credit, because they are over shadowed by the sexy offense and sexy QB in Brandon Doughty.  I like Southern Miss Nick Mullens just as much here, and he’s been better on the road with 21 TD’s and 2 interceptions.  Speaking of turnovers, that’s how Western Kentucky’s defense gets by forcing 27, but Southern Miss has cleaned that up and is actually +6 in their last 3 games compared to Western Kentucky who is +1.

Looking into this further this is 1 of 3 solid defenses that Western Kentucky has faced from a pass defense perspective.  Vanderbilt (who they should have lost to) held them to 14 points and are ranked 58th in sack %, 26th in opposing QB rating, and 38th in yards per pass attempt.  LSU, 35th, 45th, and 24th.  Both of those defenses play in a better conference, but Southern Miss is right there with 41, 22nd, and 21st, and they can stop the run.  To put this in perspective in pass defense.  Western Kentucky is ranked 96th, 66th, and 63rd, and have allowed a conference QB rating of 117 compared to Southern Miss 100.  Keep in mind the home and away games in favor of Western Kentucky. 

Western Kentucky has played 3 teams in the top 35 in yards per play and are about to face their 4th.  Southern Miss truly is a balanced team when you look at the defense we talked about and the fact that they can run the ball 5.59 yards per carry in conference play with Ito Smith averaging over 7.  They are ranked 5th in yards per play in the nation.  Western Kentucky has faced La Tech 21st (at home) allowed 38 points, LSU 25th (road) 48, Indiana 34th (road) 38.  I’d put this Southern Miss offense as the best out of those 3.  When you take into consideration that they are a threat throwing and passing the ball.  LSU, is one dimensional, Indiana is one dimensional, and La Tech not as good as we saw last week.  I really like what Southern Miss did in two challenging non-conference games vs. Nebraska and Miss State and I think they will recapture the glory days of their Conference USA success.

South Carolina +17.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Never underestimate a team in a rivalry game.  We will see what the Gamecocks have left in 2015, this is their bowl game.  Clemson should already be looking at North Carolina, as South Carolina just lost to Citadel, but before that they beat Vanderbil 19-10,and lost to Texas A&M, Florida and Tennessee by a combined 20 points.  They have to cover 17.5 in their own building, and I think they can give Clemson quite the scare here.  I think South Carolina can put up some points here, and last week meant absolutely nothing to them, but it probably gave us a few more points to work with if nothing else.

I’m probably biased towards the SEC, but the ACC is far weaker, and South Carolina faced teams like LSU, Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Tennessee meanwhile Clemson got games in the same category against Notre Dame, and Florida State.  South Carolina at home has had a very good defense, they have allowed just 3 passing TD’s to 8 interceptions.  They held North Carolina’s high flying offense in check. North Carolina is fairly similar and they held Marqise Williams to 9 yards rushing, and 1 TD and 3 interceptions. 

Clemson has also struggled on the road quite a bit winning by just 3 at Louisville, giving up 41 to NC State, losing by 10 to Syracuse, and most are expect an epic blowout, but Clemson really does not need that to enhance their resume they just need to simply win their final 2 games.  This is an in state rivalry game and we have seen South Carolina step up and play competitive games against good competition before.  I don’t quite see the value on the money line at +575

FRIDAY'S TEASER BONUS PLAY

Boise State -1.5 Teaser 5.5* MAX PLAY

This is a tough spot for San Jose State who will be fighting for their bowl hopes, but they face Boise State a top 30 defense.  San Jose State is on short rest, and they are coming off a road trip from Hawaii, this is a difficult spot for any team at any time in the season never mind at the end of the season.  Boise State has to be pissed off after 2 straight losess. This team is 13-2 straight up following a loss since 2008.

What I really like about Boise in this spot is they are 5-1 when they can run the ball for greater than 4 yards per carry, I believe they can do that against San Jose State, and they are 7-1 when they allow the opponent to run for 4 yards or less per carry.  The game plan against a weaker San Jose State team should simply be stop the run, and if Boise doesn’t turn the ball over a crazy amount like the Utah State game they should win this game easily.  San Jose is 0-3 vs. top 35 defenses this year and they have really stacked up their stats against the weak teams in the conference.  San Jose State also not a very good team on special teams which is something Boise State prides themselves on.  I don’t see the edge with San Jose State other then they want to get to a bowl game, but the line value is right for Boise State it should be 14+, it’s not because of B2B losses, and the line has moved from 10 to 7.5 let’s take advantage of these factors and take Boise State.

Nebraska +8 Teaser

I love the Huskers in this match up, and really wanted to take them on the regular line to pull off the upset.  A few things stopped me including their ability to stop the run which is a bit misleading, but they are well rested, and have a deep rotation that should make things very challenging for Iowa.  First of all every time Nebraska was in a tight game in the 4th quarter they have found a way to lose.  They could very easily be sitting here undefeated as well, but they are not so it’s hard to take them to win this game, but I feel extremely comfortable and confident in them covering a full TD in this game as long at Tommy Armstrong doesn’t give Iowa points by turning the ball over 3+ times we should be in good shape.

Nebraska is going to challenge this Iowa defense that hasn’t been challenged.  They have a balanced offense, that can beat you both ways, and they really like to open things up in the passing game top 25 explosiveness, and although the weather may hold some of that back they are just as dangerous on the ground as Iowa.  Home field advantage and the 13 days off, Iowa is on 6 days off and full of distractions now that they are thrown into the college football playoff.  Nebraska also wants a win to get into a bowl game, and have been competitive in every game.  I think the difference will be up front for Nebraska who terrorized this Iowa offensive line last year with Vincente Valentine and Maliek Collins.  If Iowa gets into predictable situations they will not win this game and Nebraska can claim they beat both teams in the Big 10 Championship game.  Even with a loss Iowa is still alive for the college football playoff.

Navy -3.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Granted we would have been getting better line value here with Navy if Houston had won last week against Houston.  I understand Greg Ward didn’t really play, and he should be healthy for this game, but he’s just not 100% and I would play Navy even with a 100% Ward.  I trust a disciplined Navy defense over Houston who hasn’t faced anyone any day of the week.  The red flags have definitely popped up over the last 3 weeks with Houston winning by 3, 1, and losing by 3 this past week.  They have definitely been lucky in their wins, and have relied largely on forcing turnovers which won’t cut it against Navy who has just 6 turnovers on the year.  The blueprint has been shown on how to beat Houston, and I don’t think Houston’s defense which is extremely misleading has enough time to prepare for a triple option attack, arguably one of the best triple action attacks we have seen in years led by Keenan Reynolds.

Reynolds leads this team, and Navy is ranked 6th in yards per carry.  Both Uconn and Memphis ran the ball 43, and 54 times against Houston with decent success and they are ranked 84th and 106th.  Houston has not allowed a team to rush for over 4 yards per carry, but… Fact, Houston has faced an average rushing offense ranked 91st and just 2 team sin top 50 at 43 and 48.  Navy should be able to control this game like they have in every game this year besides Notre Dame. 

Navy has the better defense here with less to prepare for on the short week.  I respect Houston’s head coach Tom Herman, but he’s gotten by this season with an easy schedule. Houston’s rushing offense has shown issues in their last 2 days and I don’t think they can just flip the switch vs. Navy, an extremely disciplined team that knows how to stop the run ranking 31st in the country.  Houston has rushed for 96, and 110 the last 2 weeks showing more vulnerabilities that a team like Navy can easily take advantage of.

Looking at the conference stats between these two.  Navy has the advantage in rushing offense, and slight edge in rushing defense based on strength of schedule which is ranked 31st compared to Houston at 112th.  Passing offense efficiency of 162 in conference play with no turnovers to Houston at 136 with 5 turnovers.  Passing defense Houston edge, but again SOS comes into play and they don’t even have that big of an advantage 133 to 128.  Navy penalized exactly 3 less times per game in conference play at 2.9.  Navy converting on third downs 61% compared to Houston at 48.21%, Again advantage Houston slightly on 3rd down defense 39.29% compared to 42.5% but they are worse at home.  Red Zone offense edge to Navy at 77% TD’s on 35 attempts in conference play, 72.7% for Houston on 33 attempts.  Houston’s red zone defense has been an issue at times and has allowed 70% conversions to Navy’s 65%.  4th down’s could be the biggest difference in this game, Houston has stopped them, but hasn’t faced a team that attempts and converts like Navy with 90% success rate.  Houston is 3-10, and Navy has held opponents to 31% conversions on 4th downs.  I think the type of preparation you have to do for a Navy game is washed out by the fact that Houston has home field advantage.  We saw Houston go into Memphis and win 45-20, we saw Memphis nearly beat Houston 2 weeks ago.  Navy knows what is at stake, and these players can put their signature on this program’s history.  I don’t see them losing this game without turning the ball over 2 times and they just don’t do that.

DALLAS COWBOYS -1 5.5* NFL POD

The Cowboys play really well at home during Thanksgiving Day, this is a short week for Carolina, I’m tired of seeing this team win, and I finally think they meet their destiny.  This is probably first match up all season that they face an offensive line that’s better than their defensive line.  The return of Tony Romo is huge, I don’t doubt he’ll still be rusty, but the running game improved, the offense will stay on the field a lot more, and that will help the defense as it did last game.  Greg Hardy also should be fired up for this game, and I expect it to rub off on this defense as they will force the Panthers into a few turnovers.  The crazy thing is the Panthers have only been on the road 4 times this season in 10 games.  They don’t have a win on the road against a winning team.  The Jaguars have a losing record, the Bucs have a losing record, the Seahawks are 5-5, and the Titans have a losing record.  Yes I know the Cowboys don’t have a winning record either, but this is a team that’s in a must win the rest of the year.  The intensity is there they are health, and Carolina is coming over on a short week.

EAGLES +8.5 / BEARS +14.5 3.3* NFL Teaser

I will tease the early and late game here in what I feel is an excellent spot.  This is a buy low sell high situation in the Eagles vs. Detroit as the Lions are playing well all of a sudden, and the Eagles are coming off one of their worst games ever with all kinds of rumors swirling. I just don’t see this team getting beat by more than a TD if at all to the Lions who have been awful on Thanksgiving Day.  Too many distractions in the early game for the home team with nothing left to play for.  The Eagles just 1 game back in the NFC East.

For the Bears, they are one of the best coached teams in the league and once again I like the road team.  Green Bay off the big win but this is far too much credit they made Teddy Bridgewater beat them which was expected.  It was cold I predicted Green Bay would win that game, but they didn’t look great doing so.  Aaron Rodgers shoulder is not 100% which is a HUGE factor that nobody is talking about, and it’s not like this defense can stop the Bears pass or rushing and expect the other to take care of itself.  The Bears have the weapons and coaching to beat you with the run or the pass, and this is a division rival that likely will be decided by less than a TD, but I like the value we get with the line move to grab them over 2 TD’s

Falcons -3 -120 5.5* NFL POD

The Falcons off a bye week along with the Colts, but I think this is a very tough game for the Colts starting a 40 year old QB.  I like the value we are getting here with the Falcons considering they lost 5 in a row ATS leading up to their bye while the Colts have been winning ATS.  Falcons here look to go a little up tempo in this game if you ready into some of the articles I believe the Falcons will covers this spread and win, but I'm buying the 1/2 point to protect my investment.

USC +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

This is a worse match up for Oregon on Saturday, because USC is better at limiting big plays than Stanford is ranking 22nd.  Oregon who relies on the run also struggles to win games against top 30 run defenses which USC is from a YPC perspective. Oregon lost to Utah, lost to Michigan State, and only beat Washington by 6, but USC far more capable on offense than Washington is that’s for sure, and last I looked this Oregon defense is still pretty awful, and USC has a much more balanced offense than Stanford does.

Oregon also coming into this game off 4 straight covers and Vegas has not been close.  Oregon has covered the spread by 10.5, 12.5, 8.5, and 8.5.  USC coming off back to back loses ATS of 14 and 11, so Vegas definitely adjusted this line, but on paper USC should win this game from a statistical perspective.  USC has the edge here in other situational scenarios given that they have an extra day to prepare, Oregon off a huge emotional win, and in reality they got lucky.  They knock Stanford out of the playoff discussion, and I think that was satisfying enough. It’s a long shot for them to compete for the division, while USC is in the driver seat to get to the PAC 12 Championship.  This game means much more to USC.  Oregon’s defense was pretty bad last game, and was lucky with forcing 3 turnovers, 2 of which came on bad center to QB exchanges while Stanford was looking to score.  That rarely happens, and even when it does the offense typically recovers, but Oregon got extremely lucky and now we are benefiting with this line.  USC simply does not turn the ball over, only 9 on the year.

I’m a bit concerned about the injuries USC has on defense, but I think they should be able to do whatever they want on defense, Oregon is going to have to score on longer methodical drives than they are comfortable with, and that typically results in mistakes from this team.  Give me the points with USC losing a lot of public backers the past few weeks.  3 weeks ago USC would have been favored, and this team has played extremely well on the road, and probably should have beaten Notre Dame.  I’ll ignore their crummy performance against Colorado last week.

Raiders -3 +100 5.5* NFL POD

The Vikings going out west, with a huge look ahead spot as they will host the Packers next week at home.  The Vikings have also covered 7 straight games, and asking them to cover an 8th might be a little too much here.  Earlier this season the Vikings went out west and lost to the 49ers 20-3.  Derek Carr has these Raiders playing like a playoff team, and I would not be shocked to see them get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team considering the weakness of the AFC after the top 3 teams.

Oakland’s defensive weaknesses are against the pass, and the Vikings rely on the run much more where the Raiders are ranked 7th.  This is a good match up for the Raiders at home.  Meanwhile the Vikings rank 6th in passing defense, but they haven’t really faced any elite QB’s and Carr isn’t there yet, but he definitely has a ton of weapons and this passing offense is ranked 4th in adjusted ratings.  The Vikings have faced the following passing offenses in adjusted opponent rankings – 27th, 27th, 32, 8th, 30th, 16th, 31st, 15th to put things in perspective.  Carr has proven he can play well against good defenses, and he’s proven he can win games himself, Teddy Bridgewater has not come close to proving that.

Missouri +6.5 5.5* POD  / Missouri +220 1* play

Last week I played on the Tigers at home against Miss State, and it didn’t look bad at the half 14-13, but they went on to struggle in the second half, couldn’t get off the field, but there was a positive that came out of the game.  The running game was excellent rushing for 200+ yards, and Missouri is 10-4-1 ATS following a performance like that in their last 15.  They are also 18-7 ATS following an ATS loss, they are 2-7 ATS on the season.  We could not be getting more value at the right time.  I also think this team will play inspired football considering they were getting ready to boycott this game, because of the racial injustice on their campus.  The President was fired and Missouri will have all their players and I think it’s pretty ironic they go up against BYU that is well known for their anti-gay policy in Prov which is part of their school code.  I don’t even know if any of the players know about that, but if Gary Pinkel is smart he brings it up.  Either way this team is going to be happy and inspired to get back on the field and not take anything for granted.  They also need wins here to get back to a bowl game. 

BYU on the other hand has issues on their offensive line and a couple of guys are questionable.  That’s a big problem against Missouri who is 14th in pass rush, BYU 81st in protecting their QB.  They are even worse on the road and this game will be played at the Chiefs football stadium Arrowhead.  Still a home game for Missouri that I expect them to win with their running game.  BYU is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the road 3.9 overall similar to Miss State.  BYU’s offense not nearly as good as Miss State, and they have an inexperienced QB that Missouri can force turnovers with.  I may play the money line here as well, but I really like the Tigers in this match up. 

Packers -2.5 5.5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

This is a classic situation where an NFL team got badly beat on prime time TV last week with the Broncos dominating the Packers.  Now they go on the road against a team that's undefeated and just won in OT on Monday.  If you have been following me you know I have been fading the Panthers and losing, and if they win again this week well I'll be okay with it, but I see the Packers getting all these headlines of can't win a big game and I think Aaron Rodgers will be ready for this.  The Panthers defense showed some weaknesses late in the game against the Colts that Rodgers can exploit for sure.  I also like the fact that the Panthers went to OT, and are on short rest here.  Their offense is not very good and very predictable at this point with no real WR threats.  Absolutely love the Packers here as it's my favorite play of the year! 

Maryland +11.5 5.5* play

I like the value we are getting here with the Terrapins who have been playing great football since firing their head coach. Maryland also has faced the #1 toughest schedule compared to Wisconsin at 82. They have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country as well and have -9 TO’s in their last 2 games otherwise they could have taken down Iowa or Penn State.  Maryland has had a tough schedule as well facing Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State , Michigan, Bowling Green and West Virginia, but this is home coming week they still have a shot at a bowl game and Wisconsin comes in over hyped off a huge win against Rutgers.  Wisconsin also not very good at forcing turnovers 13 on the season, just 6 interceptions which should give Maryland a shot here.

Ironically Wisconsin is not the better running team in this game as Maryland is ranked 36th in yards per carry compared to Wisconsin who is ranked 63rd.  Maryland has rushed for 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games against some very good defenses in Penn State (30th run defense),  Iowa (7th run defense), Ohio State (33rd run defense).  The dual threat QB with Perry Hills should give Wisconsin some issues on the road seeing as though they are allowing 5.62 yards per carry on the road, and the last time they faced something close to a dual threat QB in Nebraska they gave up 5.30 yards per carry.  So I expect Maryland to stay in this game, their pass defense is better than stats have shown as they have given up big games to Bowling Green (3rd in QB rating),  West Virginia, Ohio State (29th QB rating), Penn State (48th).  Other than those games this team has been very good against the pass, and their run defense is very under rated allowing 2.8 ypc in their last 3 games, and 3.32 in conference eplay.

Of course we know that Wisconsin wants to run the ball, and many would suspect they are back after their performance a week ago with Corey Clement returning to action with 115 yards on 11 carries.  However, Rutgers 105th in rushing YPC, and they allow over 6 on the road Wisconsin had just 5.5.  Otherwise this rushing offense has not been good just 2 TD’s in 3 road games, and a 3.42 ypc average, 3.69 in conference play.  Take the Terrapins here with good value.

Missouri +8 5.5* NCAAF POD

The perception on the Missouri Tigers could not be any lower at the moment.  They scored 3, 6, and 3 points in their last 3 SEC games, but those were all against top 40 defenses and arguably 3 of the top 5 defenses in the SEC in Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Florida.  With that said Miss State still has a very good defense ranking 32nd in total yards allowed, but they haven't exactly had the toughest schedule.  The perception is that this team is as good as last year, but that simply is not true.  I also like the fact that Missouri is coming off the bye week which allows them to come up with a few schemes that should help the offense as we all know they need it.  Miss State really does not need to scheme as they feel good about themselves putting up 40+ points in each of their last 3 games.

Miss State is about to face the best defense they have faced all year.  The 40+ points in their last 3 is way inflated.  They have played Kentucky ranked in 90th in defense, Louisiana Tech and Troy.  Missouri is ranked 3rd in yards per play allowed, and they'll be at home.  MIss State struggled in their other 3 games vs. SEC opponents who also had bad defenses (exception LSU), putting up 17 against Auburn and Texas A&M.  We have an extremely low total here with Vegas expecting a low scoring game, and giving 8 points to the dog with the better defense I'll jump on board every time.

Miss

Northern Illinois +7 4.4* NCAAF POD

All three of Northern Illinois losses have been on the road, but they haven't played necessarily bad in those games and if for nothing less it gives us value in what is their biggest game of the year going up against Toledo who is 7-0 SU & ATS.  Vegas has to inflate these numbers, because of what this team has done, and to be honest their schedule is not nearly as challenging as Northern Illinois who had to face Ohio State nearly upset them, and Boston College, one of the best defenses in the nation on the road.  Northern Illinois covered both of those spreads.  Meanwhile Toledo faced Arkansas and really got a ton of credit for that win, but Arkansas should have won that game.  I don't know many teams with 500 yards of total offense who score 12 points, but that's what happened to Arkansas  as they out gained Toledo by 200.  Same thing against Iowa state which is very unimpressive of Toledo who actually got to host this game.  They were out gained by nearly 200 yards again and somehow they won.  Northern Illinois had two non-conference games as true road games Toledo did not.

Perception is definitely off on this Toledo team in my opinion as they continue to get a lot of hype because they are still undefeated, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change tonight.  Northern Illinois has been here before 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games, and have extra time to prepare for Toledo who is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 with extra prep time.  Both teams need to run the ball to be successful, and Kareem Hunt is a very good RB for Toledo, but he's just not the same guy with those injuries.  Northern Illinois has the better RB here with Joel Bouagnon and Jordan Huff.  Their run defense has also been better ranking 29th in the nation and the only time they allowed more than 4 yards per carry was against Ohio State on the road.  Ohio State actually only had 162 yards rushing in the game, which is a season low for them.

Toledo's run defense has a lot of red flags they are allowing 4.17 yards per carry in conference play.  A conference schedule that has not featured anyone worth talking about as their 4 opponents have a combined 8-26 record.  They just got done allowing 400 total rushing yards in their last 2 games alone to Eastern Michigan and Umass who is 114th in the nation in rushing yards.  Toledo's passing game is also a bit shaky here with 5 interceptions in 4 conference games and Northern Illinois has a secondary featuring Shawn Lurry who leads the nation in interceptions.  Overall, it's a pretty even match up between passing offenses, but Northern Illinois seems to be a better team with just 5.8 penalties per game making 3rd downs certainly easier, and Toledo comes in with an amazing 9.8 penalties per game.  That's coaching, and I know Matt Campbell is getting a ton of praise, but you are not going to win this game with that type of a performance.

Both teams are good in the red zone on defense, and it will be huge to see which offense can convert better.  On the season Northern Illinois has been a bit better at 80% while Toledo comes in at 63%.  Overall no significant edge, and we get a TD to play with in a game where both defenses are holding opposing teams to under 50% in the red zone for TD%. I like my chances in this one with an inflated line it's hard for any team to move to 8-0 ATS, and I'm guessing Toledo won't be able to do it tonight in what should be a low scoring game.

Colts +6 5.5* NFL POD

The Colts are 17-4 ATS following a loss with Andrew Luck at QB which is good enough for me with an over rated Panthers team.  Panthers are undefeated still, but rank 27th in total yards, and Cam Newton continues to throw the ball with some of the worst mechanics I have ever seen.  At some point he is just going to be unlucky.  I also think it's a difficult spot after a prime time win over the Eagles on Sunday night football last week and they will get Green Bay at home next week as a look ahead. I don't think the Colts have to do too much to cover this spread.  I'm not taking anything away from the Panthers defense, but they are going to go up against the best QB they have faced yet.

Steelers -1 5.5* NFL POD

Big Ben returns, but the Bengals are off the bye and looking unstoppable and continue to get a lot of respect in the betting market, but I'm not completely sold on this Bengals team.  The Steelers offense is extremely explosive and has really flown under the radar.  This is the first week they are completely healthy it seems.  In the beginning of the year the Steelers challenged the Patriots

Andy Dalton has a hard time against the Steelers, 79.2 QB rating in 8 career games and the Bengals are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings with the Steelers.  Red flag is the fact that the Bengals have not faced a top 10 rusher with the exception of Jamal Charles who averaged over 6 yards per carry and they rank 28th in yards per carry.  Pittsburgh 4th running the ball 4.7 yards per carry.  This is a perfect scenario for Big Ben come come back to with Laveon Bell running the ball Big Ben can operate with balance.  

Also Bengals defense on the road in the red zone not very good 83% red zone TD% allowed.  Pittsburgh's defense has played much better here at home allowing 40% and even held the high flying Cardinal offense to 13 points.  I love the fact that the Steelers are off a loss which gives us additional line value.  On the flip side the Steelers are very good in the red zone especially at home as you might expect with a balanced offense.  So are the Bengals, but I think they are very one dimensional on offense.  They have talented running backs, but rank 20th in yards per carry.

Temple +11 5.5* NCAAF POD

I think it’s pretty clear that every time Notre Dame steps on the field they are going to have an inflated point spread, and I think that’s definitely clear against Temple here.  There is no doubt that Notre Dame has some momentum coming in, but they haven’t faced a defense like this all year with the exception of Clemson, a game on the road that they lost, but could have won.  The problem in that game is they started the game sluggish, and they have been notorious to getting off to slow starts.  The problem is they can’t afford that here against Temple who has very good coaching behind Matt Rhule.  This Temple team has outscored opponents 137 to 29 in the second half this year and there is no better sign of a good coach.

Temple also should be able to move the ball enough to cover this spread with Jahad Thomas having already proved against Penn State that he can run the ball against top defenses.  Thomas had 135 yards against a Penn State run defense ranked much higher in run defense than Notre Dame who ranks 85th in yardage and 90th in yards per carry.  Although those numbers are skewed a bit having faced Georgia Tech and Navy they gave up 590 yards to USC in their own building and were lucky to win by forcing 4 turnovers.

Temple is not going to turn the ball over, and I would actually bet that Temple wins the turnover margin.  Notre Dame has the tendency to turn the ball over with 20 in their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Temple has one of the best front 7 havoc rates in the country and at home they are sacking QB’s on 14% of their drop backs while Notre Dame is 84th at protecting their QB.  I expect Notre Dame to keep it on the ground for most of the game and that really favors us covering the spread here.  It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has not held an opponent other than Texas under 20 points all season, and Temple’s defense has been dynamite on third downs and in red zone defense.  Notre Dame on the road is converting just 18% of the time on third down which is a major concern in this game.  I really see Temple coming out strong in this one and coaching will keep them in this one late.  

Ball State +7.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

There is tremendous value in this line as Central Michigan comes in with a 7-0 ATS record following a 44 point margin of victory ATS in their last game.  Meanwhile Ball State comes in off an 0-3 ATS run with a 26 point margin of loss ATS in their last game.  This line has been adjusted accordingly and I think we have a lot of value on the home dog.  Many people look at the trenches to see which team is better and that’s really where a game starts.  Looking at it from that perspective Ball State has the advantage in adjusted line yards on offense ranking 100th vs. 120th, but very very good in power success rate while defensively they come in at 97th compared to Central Michigan’s 108th. 

Central Michigan has a very under rated QB, and I have cashed in on this team multiple times backing Cooper Rush and company, but they are 0-4 on the road, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the MAC West.  Ball State has shown signs of success this year and played both Northern Illinois and Toledo tough.  Central Michigan’s offense is extremely one dimensional and I think they will have plenty of success but the defense is in for a long day.  I think Ball State will be able to put up some points here as they will be able to run and throw the ball.  First of all CMU allowing 5.24 yards per carry on the road, and their passing defense has been terrible allowing 9.8 yards per pass and a 182 QB rating on the road.

Enter Riley Neal, Ball State’s freshmen QB who has been very good with 10 TD’s to 2 interceptions, and even better in conference play with consistent play against 2 top defenses in Toledo ranked 15th, and Northern Illinois ranked 34th.  Chippewas rank 115th in QB rating on the road and 71st overall.  In this game I think home field advantage is worth a lot and I think it will be very close.

San Diego State +5 -105 5.5* NCAAF POD

These teams are like looking into a mirror yet we get the home dog on national TV with 5 points to spare.  Rocky Long is probably one of the most under rated coaches in college football and this team has gotten better and better with each passing week.  Utah State is exceptional on defense, but lets be honest this line is inflated for their blow out win against Boise State last week where they were able to force 8 turnovers.  In fact the only games this team has won by more than 5 points have been games where they are +3, +2, and +7 in turnover margin.  San Diego State just does not turn the ball over and their QB Maxwell Smith has not thrown an interception in 5 games.

Both teams like to run first, and rely on their defenses to stop the run on the other side.  Both defenses are top 10 in run defenses and there is no significant advantage although San Diego State has the better running back in D.J. Pumphrey who is very very good and only getting better with 424 yards in his last 3 games.  San Diego State’s offensive line is starting to gel after breaking in 3 new OL, but they also got their best player back last week in guard Darrell Greene who was suspended for the first 6 games.

Rocky Long has his players more motivated than they would have been for this game after seeing Utah State beat Boise State.  Both teams are undefeated in conference play and are favored now to win their division.  Rocky Long is 18-7-1 ATS in his last 26 conference games, and they should have the overall advantage in special teams.  They also are far better in red zone defense as Utah State has allowed an alarming 68% TD% success rate.

Colts +10.5 5.5* NFL POD

Who have the Patriots played or beat so far? Their win at Buffalo was impressive, but they forced a ton of turnovers.  Not to say they can't do the same thing against Andrew Luck and the Colts, but this is an enormous price that Bovada is offering and I'm taking the Colts here with Andrew Luck's return.  At some point you get over the hump and you beat the team that has been dominating you and the Patriots never looked as good while the Colts never looked as bad and we have a double digit home dog here in prime time with Brady's so called "revenge" game on the Colts who brought the "deflate gate" to light.

I would think the Colts have just as much revenge here in this game, and I expect them to play their best game yet with the return of a healthy Andrew Luck.  The key for the Colts will be stopping the Patriots running game and getting ahead early.  The Patriots will score points as they always do this offense is just as good as last year, although they lost a key guy in Nate Solder off the offensive line.  The Patriots defense however is not the same.

Patriots only gave up 6 points to Dallas last week, but Dallas had 18 first downs to the Patriots 20 and that was without Romo and all of their offensive weapons.  The Steelers the first week of the season probably should have won as they put up 434 yards of offense, but again had key turnovers in the red zone, and Bills who started the game terrible were moving the ball on the Patriots offense with ease.  The losses or departures of Wolfork, Revis, and Browner have not shown their impact in the box score but going on the road for the second week in a row against a Colts team that I believe has been waiting and preparing themselves for this game will finally win.  Yes.. I believe the Colts will have a chance to win this game for a change.

Take USC +7 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD

I love these type of situations.  USC has a great situational play without Sarkisan. I think the level of concentration with this team will increase dramatically.  I think the Trojans will rebound nicely as they tend to rebound well after a loss.  The perception is this team has given up, but I just don’t see it there is too much talent, and the extra preparation time and motivation from these coaches to prove themselves are all reasons to love USC.  Not to mention teams following a game against Navy tend to not cover the spread.  It’s a tough game to bounce back after with the way Navy blocks.  I’ll give you one great example – Ohio State played Navy to open the season and lost the next week hosting Virginia Tech.  Notre Dame themselves are 2-5 in games played the week after Navy.  Last year they lost by 22 as a 3 point dog after Navy, and in previous years they lost to Pitt as a 4.5 point favorite, beat Purdue but only by 3 as a 14 point favorite, beat Wake Forest by 7 but as a 13.5 point favorite, lost to Tulsa as a 9.5 point favorite in 2010, lost at Pitt by 5 as a 5.5 point underdog so they covered that spread by a ½ point.  In 2008 they lost to Syracuse following Navy as a 19.5 point underdog.  In 2007 they lost to Air Force following Navy by 18 points.  In fact they are just 1-9 ATS the last 10 seasons following the Navy match up.

UCLA +7 5.5* NCAAF POD – UCLA +215 1* PLAY

UCLA’s struggles against Stanford in recent history are well documented (1-6 ATS in their last 7), but this is a different team.  This is probably the best UCLA team that Stanford has faced, and for Stanford people are forgetting that this team replaced their entire defense and I know they have looked good of late, and their wins against USC and Arizona are impressive, but this is their biggest challenge.  I’m not even that impressed now with their win against USC considering their situation now with Sarkisan and their loss against Northwestern looks even worse now after what Northwestern did at Michigan.

Jim Mora is a very good coach and this team has played exceptionally well on the road, 5-0 last year 2-0 on neutral fields.  This team is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a bye week, and the value is there considering vegas was off by nearly 30 points in their last match up against Arizona State.  Listen Arizona State is good, they had a bad game against USC, and they pose a different challenge than Stanford.  With Stanford what you see is what you get and it’s not overly difficult to prepare for.  I see UCLA’s offense really doing well in this game as they are truly balanced and pose a different challenge to this Stanford defense that in my opinion is getting a little too much credit.

When I say Stanford is predictable that’s not always easy to stop, but in their wins this year they have a QB rating of 204 and 88 in their loss.  That follows the trends from previous years in 2014 it was 167, to 113, and in 2013 it was 163 to 113.  This team needs Kevin Hogan to play well, and he honestly faces a tough task here on Thurdsay night even at home against the Bruins.  UCLA has an interception in every game, and is top 25 in opponent yards per attempt and completion %.  UCLA has been excellent in the red zone allowing only 38.89% TD’s, and on third down 36% both are better than Stanford’s defensive stats.  This just is not the same Stanford defense and they have actually allowed more sacks, and tackles for loss and have only forced 3 TO’s. 

Oakland Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD

I love the Raiders in this spot coming off a bad loss on the road there is clearly line value with them.  Majority of the public are just assuming that the Broncos are the Broncos at 4-0, but the fact is they are very lucky to be 4-0, and the Broncos offense is a shell of what it once was meanwhile Oakland's offense is quickly becoming one of the best in the league with all of their young talent!  Denver's offense ranks 31st in yards per play with just .1 more than the 49ers.  Perception definitely does not tell you that and Oakland's offense ranks 12th.

The Broncos have dominated this series in the past, and their defense has played extremely well, but they have not played a top 15 offense yet so I think the pressure is really going to be on Peyton Manning to produce a come back win and I could easily see the Raiders winning the game outright they always seem to step up big in these situations and I don't think they are too far away from being a factor in the division.  A win here and there will be a lot to talk about.

Redskins +7.5 3.3* play

I like the Redskins right now they are playing great defense and this is far too many points even for the way the Falcons are playing right now.  The Falcons offense is great, but their defense has also struggled ranking 27st in yard per play.  The Redskins have been + yards in every one of their games so far despite their opponents having the most plays per game they rank 4th with 288 yards allowed per game and have also been really tough to score on in the red zone at 37.5% while Atlanta's red zone defense ranks 25th.  Falcons also looking ahead to their division rival game on Thursday against the Saints. 

Chiefs -3 / Bills +5 

Chiefs are not as bad as their record they played 3 hopeful Super Bowl contenders.  The Bears were extremely lucky to get a win last week and I just see them losing this game pretty handily to the Chiefs who will have some success offensively with Jamal Charles going up against a run defense that ranks 26th in run defense.  Chicago has some issues with injuries along their offensive line and that should lead to a lot of 3 and outs, and even mistakes by Jay Cutler.  Either way it does not look good for their defense today which will be on the field a ton.

On the flip side I like the coaching edge for the Bills, and I think the value is right.  People are over reacting to their struggles against the Giants last week.  I was on the Giants as our POD, but I think they are a better team than they showed.  Rex Ryan will have his defense this week going up against a rookie QB.  The Bills should force some turnovers and should win this game.

Giants +5 5.5* NFL POD; Giants +200 1* 

Giants could easily be 3-0 now as they have led nearly all 12 quarters but instead sit at 1-2 and have a ton of value here on extra rest.  This is a well coached team and Buffalo is off a huge divisional road win.  I honestly don't see the Bills as focused this week and they are getting well over a field goal so I really can't get excited for that and back the Bills.  I think the extra prep will do the Giants good and they always seem to be in the game and I see nothing changing this Sunday.

Tulsa +7 5.5* POD & Tulsa +230 1* BONUS

Tulsa has to be licking their chops here against Houston.  Coming off a bye week and after a great performance vs. Oklahoma Tulsa gets to host a team as a 7 point under dog that is getting a lot of credit already for their win on the road against Louisville.  Both these teams are breaking in 2 new impressive coaches from big programs with Tom Herman form Ohio State on the Houston side and Phil Montgomery on the Tulsa side.

Tulsa’s offense worked on the road against Oklahoma.  Now he gets a bye week to improve the defense against another top tier offense coming in from Houston.  Montgomery has already proved he can improve this team and he’s got more returning starters than Houston.

Houston is far more predictable running the ball 65% of the time while Tulsa has been more balanced at 56%.  Houston will face the best offense they have seen all year.  Yes, they have been very good vs. the run, but they haven’t faced a team that can pass the ball and run the ball.  Louisville’s offense has been struggling all year and they haven’t faced anyone else to note.  Dane Evans at QB should keep the sticks moving and Zack Langer is a powerful back in the red zone where Houston is allowing 70% TD’s.  Actually Tulsa’s defense has been better on third down than Houston and their offense has also succeeded more on third downs.  I actually think Tulsa has a solid shot at pulling the upset.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 5.5* POD

I am grabbing the value here on the Dolphins as their public perception right now is super low, but this is still a very good team.   They nearly lose at Washington to open the season, and then they come back to lose in their own state to the Jaguars who looked awful in week 1.  I told many that the Jaguars would be better this year and unfortunately I just didn't have the guts to take them in week 2 after week 1.  Either way this team goes back home where the defense can be dominating while the Bills go on the road and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 in Miami.  I think this is a challenging game after their 2 home games, and I don't expect them to be able to win.  

Rex Ryan and the Bills really sold out to beat Tom Brady, and I see a little bit of a hangover or let down spot here having to travel to Miami.  Still people are high on the Bills, because they gave the Patriots a bit of a fight at the end, but many predicted the Dolphins to be better in the off season.  I still think we have a better offense from Miami with a more experienced QB who is back at home, while the Bills and Dolphins defense are both very similar in overall talent although Buffalo didn't look it last week.  This is almost a must win for each of these teams, and I think the home team has a major advantage.

Purdue +5.5 5.5* POD; Purdue +180 1* bonus

The public is loving Bowling Green, a high scoring machine that already went on the road to beat a Big Ten team in Maryland.  First of all Maryland is not technically a Big 10 team until they do something having just entered the league.  The public perception about both of these teams is completely off and now the line has moved 8 points since opening with Purdue as a 2.5 point favorite.  I’m sold at this point Purdue wins this game outright if they play smart.

We backed Purdue the first Sunday of the season and thought we had a cashed ticket against Marshall, but it was an absolute collapse in the 4th quarter of a game that started with a pick 6 and ended with an interception as Purdue’s QB Appleby had 4 interceptions.  Purdue is making a change though and it comes at the right time against a paltry Bowling Green defense that has nobody worth mentioning.  This is a great opportunity for David Blough to come in and look good at QB.  Bowling Green can’t get pressure, and they are terrible vs. the run.  They are also coming off a pretty tough loss at home against Memphis that may be tough to get over here.

Purdue is a team that has a head coach in his 3rd year (I love these situations), with 15 returning starters.  They haven’t looked good yet, but watching the Marshall game I know this team is improved.  They improved drastically last year, and this year they returned the entire offensive line with 80+ starts.  I expect big days from both of their running backs Markell Jones who has 7.16 ypc and D.J. Knox who is a tough runner.  Purdue is also pretty good in key situations on defense which should help.  They have held opponents to 31.82% on third down while Bowling Green is just 37% at converting (I bet you thought it was better), and they held opponents to 53% TD % while Bowling Green (converting at 53%).  Defensively Bowling Green allowing 70% in the red zone on the road this year and 67% overall.  They are also not a very disciplined team with nearly 11 penalties a game ranking them 123rd in the country.  They have been opportunistic on defense which gave them the game against Maryland, but in three games only have forced 4 turnovers.  However, they are a MAC team.. 

The MAC is looking pretty good these days as Northern Illinois nearly beat Ohio State, and Toledo took down Arkansas both on the road.  However, the MAC West is far superior to the MAC East.  Ironically Purdue just 1-2 vs. the MAC have only played teams from the West.  MAC East on the road vs. Big Ten the last 2 years are 1-11 with the 1 win being Bowling Green at Maryland with +3 turnovers.  Purdue is much better than Maryland in my opinion who only returned 10 starters, and were -99.3 yards per game in the conference a year ago.

Oregon State +14 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD

I am jumping on Oregon State here, I think this is a tough game for Stanford after they went on the road and beat USC a week ago.  I wouldn't typically select a Stanford team as having a hangover, but they could be without Kevin Hogan, but even with Kevin Hogan or a not 100% Kevin Hogan this is far too many points.  First of all the oddsmakers set the total at 44 so this is a pretty large spread we are looking at here.

I'm going with the large home dog with Gary Anderson coaching up this defense that is really under rated, while we have already seen Stanford's offense look awful in the past.  I just don't think you can count on a consistent offense from Stanford week in and week out and I'm still not sold on David Shaw as a coach.  The one thing I know is Gary Anderson is going to get the most out of his defense, and they have shown it already in 2015.  I also like the fact that Seth Collins, Oregon State's QB is more mobile than Northwestern's QB Thorson.  Collins has already rushed for nearly 300 yards on 44 carries.  I would not be shocked to see Oregon State pull off the upset, but I think it may be too early in the Gary Anderson era for that. 

Cincinnati +10 4.4* NCAAF POD

Gunnier Kiel will most certainly play for the Bearcats at Memphis.  I can tell you one thing this line would not have opened up at 10 points before the season, but everyone is super high on Memphis after their exciting season last year and their 3-0 start to this year with their huge win against the MAC's Bowling Green on the road last week.  Memphis also won this game huge last year against Cincinnati on the road, but I expect a much more competitive game this time around. I truly think it's a sell high, buy low situation we are in here today, because the Bearcats are 0-3 ATS, while Memphis is 2-0-1 depending on when you bet on them last week.

Memphis was out gained against Bowling Green, and gave up yards on the ground and through the air as Matt Johnson torched this pass defense for 443 yards and 4TD's.  Gunner Kiel can definitely expect to do the same thing.  Memphis won this game by going 3-3 on 4th downs.  For Cincinnati on the surface they don't look like a great team right now.  They only beat Miami Ohio by 4 and were 21 point favorites, and they lost to Temple at home, but they did lose their QB against Miami Ohio, and against Temple they were +261 yards.  The Bearcats are converting on 56% of their third downs right now while the defense is holding opponents to 25%.  I actually like the Bearcats ability to win the game when it matters.  In the red zone they are allowing 45% TD percentage to go along with their third down success.  This was a team that held opponents on the road to 36% a year ago on third down and 44% in the red zone on TD%.

A lot of hype here in head coach Justin Fuentes, but he did have 17 starters returning last year to 11 this year.  Tough spot for his team to stay up for an entire 4 quarters after a back and forth road game.  Meanwhile Cinci appeared to be looking ahead towards this conference game.

Cleveland Browns +2 5.5* NFL POD

I am backing the Browns here at home, this line has moved about 5.5 points from where it should be and was before the season.  Both teams are predicted at 6 wins and the Browns should be 3 point home favorites.  However, oddsmakers know the public have short term memory and are only looking at the 31-10 loss at the Jets, and the Titans impressive domination of the Bucs on the road.

It's very difficult to win on the road in this league. It's very difficult to win with a rookie QB on the road in this league.  This week Marcus Mariotta and the Titans have to do both for the second week in a row against a defense that was ranked in the top 10 last year.  This is a step up in competition and if the Browns down't turn the ball over 5 times like they did a week ago we should see a win and a cover.  I also like Johnny Manziel with a full week of practice and reps with #1.  He actually did not look bad vs. the Jets, but unfortunately the Jets defensive line is nasty, and he should have much more time this week vs. the Titans. 

Texas +6.5 +101 5.5* NCAAF POD 

Texas was a 9.5 point favorite in this game a month ago, and perception has definitely left us with great value.  Even in Texas win last week they looked terrible, but had a 42-14 lead late which was lost leaving bettors upset with the final 42-28 score.  So now we have 2 teams coming in this is our classic buy low, sell high.  California bettors are extremely happy covering ATS by a margin of 2 TD’s in both of their games, and now they are an incredible 7 point favorite on the road against Texas!  We are already hearing the Charlie Strong should be fired cries, but I actually think Texas is in better shape and I really like their opportunity to pull the upset at home.  I’ll take the better defense + nearly a TD every single time at home.

Finally Tyrone Swoops seems to be gone and Jerred Heard has taken over after looking very very good against Rice with nearly 100 yards rushing and 130 yards passing with 2 TD and 0 interceptions.  Finally Texas might have a balanced offense and they face a Cal team with plenty of issues still on defense especially in the secondary.  San Diego State was able to have success against Cal and actually had the advantage in time of possession and I see Texas being able to do the same thing in this game with their offensive line and talented running backs.

Cal’s offense has looked great, but a red flag is their inability to convert on third downs at just 36%.  This team lost 2 offensive linemen, and they go up against a Texas defense that has a strength in the secondary although it hasn’t showed yet.  Texas was also 10th in sack % on defense last year while Cal was 95th in protecting their QB.  Goff did not play well against the top pass rush units in the PAC 12 a year ago.  There were 4 total teams in the top 25 in pass rush out of the Pac 12 and he avoided 2 of them, and faced 2 at home, but threw just 1 passing TD and had 4 interceptions (Washington/Stanford).  Texas is not there yet, but I think the confidence at home and the chip on their shoulder for being a 7 point dog to Cal will bring out the best.

Louisville +6 5.5* NCAAF POD / Louisville +210 1* play

Louisville has already been thoroughly tested by Auburn in the opener and a much improved Houston team with new head coach Tom Herman.  This is extreme line value as I believe it would have been pk'm if it was in week 1.  Clemson has literally played nobody and still has many red flags in my opinion and do not warrant being nearly a TD favorite on the road especially on a short week.  Two reasons why Louisville has value on this line and why they are large under dogs.  They lost to Auburn who nearly lost to Jacksonville State last week (Auburn clearly looking ahead to LSU), and Louisville lost last week to Houston at home as a double digit favorite, but Houston not getting any credit, and Louisville obviously cares more about their ACC schedule anyway.

This is fresh start for Louisville, and I believe they have the better coach in this one.  Louisville was pretty dominant in ACC play last year by the numbers and although they lost just as much as Clemson they acquired by transfers more depth, and arguably have a better overall team although that has not shown up yet.

Clemson has a real challenge here on the road on a short week vs. a very good coach in Petrino.  Deshawn Watson is getting a ton of hype and has been excellent, but remember this team lost 79 starts along their offensive line and return just 1 starter.  Watson warmed up against Wofford and Appalachian State and this game on the road is about to get much much faster.  Given who they have played there are some really big red flags.  Only 46% success rate on third down (Louisville is better at 48.15%), they turned the ball over 4 times, they are -3 in sacks differential, and they only rushed for 4.16 ypc.  Defensively this team is not an automatic top tier defense.  

Clemson lost 29 total letterman more than any other team in the ACC, and most of them on defense went to the NFL.  The defensive line was hit the hardest, and now we are talking about two key units that you need to have success when you step up in competition.  We are talking about the offensive and defensive line, and it's going to be difficult for Clemson to win the battle in the trenches.  Sure they have the better QB, but Louisville actually out gained this Clemson team on the road last year, but lost because of a fumble in the end zone.  Louisville will win this game if they take care of the ball.  For that reason I'm going to play a bit on the money line as well!

Falcons +3.5 4.4* NFL POD

The Eagles are getting 60% or more of the action here and I saw this line creep up to 3.5 and I grabbed it!  The Eagles put up 36, 40, and 39 points in their first 3 games in the pre season, and have a ton of hype adding the pieces they did under Chip Kelly's offense.  The Eagles are highly bet by the public to open this season for good reason, but we can not ignore Matt Ryan's success at home and some of the changes the Falcons have made in the offseason.  I believe we are getting tremendous value here on the Falcons as a home dog.  I truly believe the Falcons can play and score right with the Eagles here tonight.  Ryan has a healthy offensive line and some dangerous weapons at his disposal, but the difference will be the defense. 

Dan Quinn takes over as the new head coach and they have added a lot of defensive minded coaches.  This will no longer be a soft Falcons defense under Quinn and DC Richard Smith, and Raheem Morris. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Sam Bradford hurt before the game is over in this one.  I really did not understand why the Eagles let Nick Foles go, but Bradford is not really an upgrade here and Demarco Murray came off a career year behind the league's best offensive line.  Expect the Eagles to make the mistakes that allow the Falcons to win this game and set the tone for their 2015 season.

Rams +4.5-- 5.5* MAX NFL POD

I even like the Rams to win this game outright.  This is a very early start for the Seahawks along with it being week 1.  I think the Seahawks have a lot more issues going into this season than they have had in the past with turnover, and their offensive line.  This OL has had some major issues and that's not a good match up going into week #1 against the Rams who have arguably the best defensive line in the league featuring Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Aaron Donald, Nick Fairley and Michael Brockers. 

Of course the Rams are without Todd Gurley, but I expect them to find creative ways to score, and the secondary of the Seahawks may not be as good especially if Chancelor is not back for this one.  Either way I like the value I'm getting here on the Rams and head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the league and they did beat the Seahawks here at home last year along with Denver.  They have plenty of talent at the skill positions to give the Seahawks a big scare and I will probably bet they do pull the upset to start the season.

Colorado State +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State did lose a lot in the offseason.  They lost their QB to the NFL, their head coach to Florida, and their top 2 tacklers on defense, but they do return 15 starters.   They hire Georgia’s OC Mike Bobo, and return arguably the best WR in the nation in Rashard Higgins along with 4 of the top 5 receivers from last season.  This was a very very good home team last year which I expect to continue, and they will host Minnesota in a game they had to have circled before the season. 

This is a tough spot for Minnesota going on the road and into altitude after facing TCU, a preseason favorite and nearly upsetting them.  Minnesota returns just 12 starters and they lost their best receiving option and runner in David Cobb who had 1629 yards last year.  Jerry Kill is a very good coach, but on the road this team seems to be not as good.  I really like what Colorado State did with their coaching staff and I think the defense will improve with the addition of Tyson Somers and a senior laden defense that should be able to defend against a one dimensional offense like Minnesota.

Colorado State was very good at home on defense in stopping teams on third down (37%) and in the red zone (60% TD’s), and Minnesota just was not the same with a QB rating that went down 18 points on the road, and a rushing attack that also went down by more than 1 yard per carry.  This is a nice value play for us here on Colorado State who will start the game in a no huddle and keep Minnesota off guard this entire game.  I expect them to have an excellent shot at pulling the upset.

Southern Miss +21.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

If there was ever a shot for Southern Miss to prove that they are turning this program around it's tonight.  Dan Mullen, HC of Miss State is already crying about the game start, and that defenitely trickles down to the players.  I believe Mullen is possibly the worst coach in the SEC, and I picked Miss State to finish last in the talented SEC West.  Miss State returns just 7 overall starters, but it feels like more, because they have the face of their program in Dak Prescott returning, but this team really struggled down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games, and I don't know that they can just hit that switch in game 1 in an instate road game with so many new guys filling in at new positions.  

Southern Miss on the other hand is definitely on the rise.  Todd Monkens 3rd year should pay dividends and people forget that this program had 19 straight winning seasons before their 4-32 record over the last 3 years.  Southern Miss has 15 guys returning, including their QB and all 5 of their offensive linemen.  This team should be much improved and I actually like their rebuilt defense which is filled in with transfers, but solid ones.  To start the season they will have two 300lb linemen in Quincy Russel and Andrew Bolton transfers from Texas and Kansas.  I also think Dak Prescott will be surprised if he tries to attack Southern Miss backfield which is under rated.

Miss State also has LSU up next, and can't be taking this team seriously.  We saw similar results last night with a better version of in state match ups between Michigan State and Western Michigan.  We are getting a worse power 5 school, and more points to work with and I love our chances here.  Western Michigan lost by just 13 and were driving late to pull within a score.

Hawaii +7.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams head into the 2015 season with high hopes for improving and there are a lot of things to like about each for achieving that goal, but I think Hawaii really needs this game more, and Colorado's defense could have a hard time in this game.  Hawaii brings in USC transfer QB Max Wittek to take over an offense that returns 2 of their top receivers in Pedroza and Kemp and they bring in an offensive coordinator for the first time under Norm Chow.  Chow must really be a control freak, but he's on the hot seat and knows he had to do this.  Don Bailey comes over and he will feature an uptempo attack that he ran at FCS Idaho State.  Bailey brought Idaho State out of nowhere and they ranked 1st in passing offense and 2nd in total offense among FCS teams.  This offense will undoubtedly improve and they'll face Colorado whose ranked 116th, 110th, and 124th the last 3 years in yards per play allowed.

Hawaii was actually better than their record indicated last year with 4 net closes losses of 10 points.  They lost to open last year to Washington out of the PAC 12 by 1 point, and they'll face a Colorado team that is not as good as the Washington team was.  Colorado does have a very good QB, and WR tandem, but they showed an inability to close games last year and quickly ran out of options.  Hawaii's defense should be exciting in the back 7, and the DL will again have depth issues, but this is game 1 and this team really needs a win when you consider they have road games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise following this game. 

Michigan +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I love the value we are getting with Michigan here on the road against Utah and I'm going to go ahead and make it an official max play.  First of all these two teams have a lot more in common then you'd think.  Strong defenses that will rely on the running game to win a game.  Both will play in a lot of close games and I can't imagine Michigan not being within a field goal here.  Utah's offense took some big hits in terms of playmakers and they go up against a very experienced Michigan defense.  I expect it to be a very low scoring game.  Utah's strength of a pass rush should not play a part on Thursday night I just don't see Iowa transfer Jake Rudock being asked to do a ton other than not turning the ball over.  Michigan was -16 in turnover margin last year and are among the teams that have a great chance at improving.  Since 1991 teams with -10 or more TO margin 79% improved or stayed the same.  The additiona of Jake Rudock from Iowa - 16TD / 5 INT will almost certainly guarantee that.

Utah also did not have the home field advantage it previously had losing to Washington State and Oregon last year and beating USC by 3.  Utah has a bigger game the following week against in state rival Utah State.  For Michigan this is a bigger game and Jim Harbaugh's coming out party.  It's rare that you will get a team like Michigan with an elite defense as a 5 point under dog on the road to open the season against a team whose offense returns just 6 starters and ranked 98th in yards per play on offense.  Bottom line... 

Michigan's defense is stronger - top 10 run defense home and away, they both have similar offenses with QB's that did not turn the ball over last year, and both can stop the run, but I believe Michigan is just a bit better on defense, and running the ball, and the coaching has improved significantly with a team that has always had more talent.  Jim Harbough in his past has taken a bit of time improving his teams, but his last two stops in college were San Diego taking them 7-4, and then 22-2 after, STanford was 16-40 before Harbough got there then went 9-15 and 20-6.  However, Harbough never got this much talent right away and I think the results should be truly amazing with a ton of close games because of this defense.  

Seahawks +2 5.5* NFL POD; Seahawks +8 / Under 54.5 4.4* 6pt teaser

The value here is on the Seahawks when you look at the fact that the Patriots were to be 3 point under dogs before any games started last Sunday if in fact it ended up Patriots vs. Seahawks.  Many books were releasing those lines, but the way each team got here is very different and public perception right now is the Patriots are better.  Even with the deflategate because most people feel that did not even help the Patriots, but I'm going to jump on this game before several consequences are handed out.

Bottom line is the Patriots struggled vs. top tier rushing games and tough defensive lines.  The Seahawks probably have the best combination of defensive line and secondary and then add in the fact that they are 3rd vs. the run.  Patriots struggled vs. the Bills who also have an excellent defensive lines and multiple times vs. the Jets and Dolphins and Chiefs.  I expect Seattle with 2 weeks to prepare will be well prepared and they always say defense wins championships.  While the Patriots have a pretty damn good defense as well it resides mostly in the secondary and I think the Seahawks can really run the ball in this match up if they stay dedicated to it.  

Listen every team has a bad game and that's what happened to the Seahawks.  They are mostly a team that takes care of the ball, but for whatever reason they turned the ball over 5 times.  How many teams who turn the ball over win the game?  Not many especially when you are facing a future Hall of Famer at QB in Aaron Rodgers.  I just think people are down on the Seahawks because many feel the Packers choked the game away, but perhaps this will humble them as they prepare for another great QB in Tom Brady.  Seahawks defense will be plenty motivated when you think about the fact that they will have the ability to defeat two of the best QB's of all time in back to back years.  

Note all prop options are based on Thursday night's odds on Oddsmaker! 

Under 44.5 yards (-110) for longest FG of the game 2.2* play
This game features two of the best defenses and two of the best kickers, but I don't think either kicker will make a FG over 44.5 yards. When you think about the percentages There are 72 opportunities for the teams involved in their opponents throughout the season. In 18 games the Patriots only had 5 games with a FG over 44.5 yards and they only allowed one in 6 games while the Seahawks only had 5 over 44.5 yards as well and allowed their opponents 5. Both of these teams are aggressive and I feel like if they get down around the 30 they are likely going for it.

Field Goal 1st Points of Game +125 1* Play
The first score has been a field goal in 12 of the Seahawks 18 games. I think they dictate this game a lot and the field goal will be the first points of Super Bowl 49. Patriots came in at just 5 of 18, but still that's 17 of 36 which is essentially even yet we get the value at +125.

Lagarette Blount U62.5 yards -130 2* play
The over would be the hot play here after Blount just got done running all over the Colts with 30 carries and 150+ yards, but Blount never had more than 12 carries all year long. The Patriots have a tendency to not lean on 1 guy and I doubt Blount will get 17 carries which is approximately what he would need to get to 63 yards vs. the Seahawks who are 3rd allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Seattle will also game plan to stop Blount as they are very good at this compared with the Colts who were 24th. I also see a competitive game so I don't see the Patriots running it 30+ times as they only select running plays 40% of the time anyway.

Brandon Lafell U18.5 yards longest reception -115 1* play
Lafell is listed as questionable so he must play for this one which I believe he will. His toe injury could impact him here but that's not why I play the under here. New England is not a big play offense ranking 25th in big plays on the year while the Seahawks rank #1 in big plays allowed. They rank #1 in passing big plays allowing just 14 all year so I don't expect Lafell to have an impact on this game at all with long plays. Patriots are smarter than to attack a very good secondary like that. 

Luke Wilson Over 2.5 receptions-115 3* play
Seahawks TE group was really banged up this year and Luke Wilson really stepped up down the stretch. He's not really known as a big time threat, but he got plenty of targets down the stretch over the last 5 games having 3 or more in each and had 3 TD catches in his last 4 games. New England wants to and will take away the WR of Seattle with their excellent secondary so I believe Wilson will have a big role in this game. NE was ranked 4th in opponents most targets towards a TE at 6.5/game. Only 2 out of 18 games did the Patriots allow less than 3 receptions to an opponents TE. Seeing as Wilson is the only TE getting targets these days I would love to take the over here. 

Tom Brady U266.5 yards passing 3.3* play
Tom Brady will face the #1 passing defense in the league as the Seahawks have allowed 260+ yards passing only 4 times out of 18 games this season. Many of which they had leads where teams had to throw a lot. It happened just once in their last 14 games overall whle Brady threw for over 266.5 8 out of 18 games this year. I broke it down further based on yards per attempts to see how many passing attempts Brady would have to make to get over this number based on what he averages and what the Seahawks typically give up. Brady is 16th in yards per attempts at 6.8 yards which suggests he should attempt at least 40 passes. Seattle has only seen a QB attempt over 40 passes 4 times all year. Meanwhile the Seahawks have allowed just 5.8 which suggests that Brady needs to actually have 46 attempts. Bottom line this Patriots offense is not built on big plays and when you go up against one of the best secondaries 266.5 yards is a lot to ask and the Patriots are much smarter than this. Take the under for Brady in this spot.

Seahawks -7 5.5* NFL POD

The Seahawks will return to the Super Bowl.. So R-E-L-A-X relax as one of the most arrogant QB's of all time will go down this Sunday by double digits!  First of all Aaron Rodgers is clearly not healthy in the beginning of games and the Packers struggled for 3 quarters to move the ball consistently on the Dallas Cowboys.  Now they turn up the competition and go on the road where they have not played well all season.  Seattle's defense is playing better than it has all year and I think this is just a mismatch.  The Packers do have the better QB, but defense wins championships and it's too bad that Rodgers can use this strained calf as an excuse.  He seemed to be pacing himself in the game on Sunday which was smart and by the 4th quarter he was lose and almost appearing to be 100%.

This offense topped 30 points only once on the road this year and it was against the Chicago Bears defense that was depleted at the time. The Bears finished the season ranked 30th in yards per play allowed on defense.  Seattle is #1 currently while the Packers are #1 on offensive yards per play they are 9th when it comes to yds/play on the road gaining nearly 1 yard less.

Ohio State +7 bovada 5.5* MAX  POD / Ohio State +185 2* bonus

Oregon and Ohio State are very similar teams in statistical breakdowns.  I think both of their scores are a bit misleading from the semifinals.  Both were +110 or more yards over their opponent, but as we all know now Ohio State did it against a better opponent than Oregon.  We are still catching a TD dog at many books here and I'm even going to play Ohio State on the money line for a 2* bonus.  The Big Ten has gotten crap all season long and then it looked worse when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech.  However, this bowl season the Big Ten has some pretty singificant wins on their resume including Michigan State over Baylor, Rutgers over UNC in blowout fashion, Penn State over BC, Wisconsin beat Auburn and Nebraska hung with USC and lost by 3.

I watched the entire Oregon vs Florida State game 2 times this week after watching it live and Florida State really moved the ball up and down the field and had over 500 yards of offense.  I see no reason why Ohio State can not do the same thing.  People keep doubting Cardale Jones, but Urban Meyer has always had a top QB and he's prove that he puts them in a system or scenarios that have a long history of success.  Jones did not seem to be phased one bit in the game against mighty Alabama while if you go back and watch the first half of the Oregon game, Marcus Mariotta really took a while to get going and in the first half he really was not off to a great start.  This Florida State team flat out gave up after Cook fumbled the ball twice and from there it was just a domino effect.  Cook was having a great game as well, but after he was benched the Florida State offense really did not have the same impact.  Ezekial Elliot is not going to fumble multiple times and Urban Meyer will be sure as hell they don't turn the ball over 5 times or allow 35 points off turnovers.  I still think if you had Oregon play Florida State again I would take the points again because this was a ball game until the shit hit the fan with the turnovers.

A few things here - Ohio State is a much better defense ranking 11th in yards per play allowed compared to Florida State ranking 66th and even Oregon at 53.  Now Oregon does have the better offense, but I can see Ohio State controlling this game on the ground.  And no it's not because I think Oregon is "soft."  I hope to hell we don't have to hear that brought up all game again.  In the end I'm taking the far better coach with the far better track record as a TD dog.  I'll also take them on the money line and hedge in live game if we need to.

Cowboys +5 5.5* NFL POD

Of all the road teams this week I think Dallas has the best shot at coming out on top.  Everyone is piling on the Cowboys and the officiating from a week ago but I still think this Cowboys team is more focused and ready to continue their run for a rematch in Seattle.  They are 1 of 4 teams with a top 10 rushing and top 10 passing attack, and the only one with a top 5 of both.  Green Bay's defense is going to struggle in this game.  The other two times they faced a top 10 balanced attack they lost and gave up 200 yards rushing in both games. I expect much of the same here with Dallas picking up nearly 200 yards rushing and controlling the game.

Tony Romo never gets the credit he deserves and even if Suh was held like crazy on the last play of the game last week I think it's finally time for Romo to win a big playoff game and earn the credit.  Romo had a 121.8 QB rating on the road this year and nobody else is even close.  He benefits from having the best rushing team in the league, but he's played smart.  Demarco Murray should be fresh in this game coming off just 19 carries vs. the Lions and Romo has 4 legit weapons to pass to in Beasley, Witten, Williams, and of course the diva Dez Bryant.  All 4 bring something different to the table.

Dallas still has to defend, but they seem to be getting better as the season goes along. They were #3 in the league in opposing QB rating on the road holding 8 QB's to a combined 81.2 QB rating.  Although they haven't played someone as good as Aaron Rodgers, they just seem to be a very good road team that I would like to back at this point in the season. 

Ravens +7.5 5.5* NFL POD
I am going to grab this line right now.  The Ravens have proven that when they are in the playoffs they are one tough team to beat.  It's a combination of Joe Flacco being so cool and their coach John Harbough who is one of the best in the league.  Harbough is 9-4 in post season play and 2-1 in New England including a game that they arguably should have won. That's not to say that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren't great in their own right, but over a TD is just too much when you consider that the Ravens are the physical type of team the Patriots hate to play and struggle with.  The Ravens strengths are up front along the defensive line they have the run stuff unit that is among the best in the league led by Ngata and Suggs and Dumervil are terrorizing off the edge and could give Brady some issues.  Bottom line this Ravens team was the best in their division all year long and proved that by moving on yesterday.

Lions +7 5.5* NFL POD

I will take the Lions here in this spot as the Cowboys really have not played well at home this year with all 4 of their losses coming here.  I really do not trust either QB in this spot, but the Lions defense is much better than the Cowboys and they match up well being able to defend the run.  They were #1 in stopping the run this year and allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards.  They also did all of this with a more challenging schedule.

The Cowboys have been able to hide some of their defensive weaknesses this year by controlling the game with the ground game, but they enter this game with Demarco Murray having nearly 400 carries, around 80 more than any other back.  I think it's a high risk play against a physical defense to back the Cowboys as a TD favorite.  I could easily see Dallas defense getting into trouble against Detroit if they are on the field for too long.  I will take the team with the better defense getting this many points especially when their strength equally matches the strength of the opponent. 

Cardinals +7 -115 buy hook - 5.5* max NFL POD

I suspect this game will jump to 7 by the time the game kicks off, but I'm comfortable with the Cardinals at 6.5 as well.  Carolina has been on fire winning 4 in a row, but they have had the 22nd ranked strength of schedule to get into the playoffs they played teams ranked with some very bad defenses including the Saints (31st), Falcons (32nd), Bucs (25th) and the Browns (23rd).  The point spread is based all off the fact that the Cardinals have no QB, but my friends despite what the media portrays this game of football is about more than just 1 position.

The Cardinals are 11-5 and are off two losses so the public is far down on them and Vegas has set an inflated line here and the value is certainly on the Cardinals.  This is a team that has played Denver, KC, San Diego along with Philly, Dallas and Detroit and their normal division games.  They have the 10th toughest schedule and went 11-5 all without a QB.  I'm trusting Bruce Arian and his coaching ability here.  I expect him to have Ryan Lindley ready to go in this one and I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals win the game outright! 

Wash/Okl St U57 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total is just far too high and man may think that Oklahoma State's offense is turning the corner with 38 points vs. Oklahoma and 28 vs. Baylor, two solid defenses, but in both games they had 14 entering the 4th quarter.  Washington is just too strong up front to allow something like that and they are well coached by Chris Petersen.  Washington's defense has 3 All-American's up front and Oklahoma State's offensive line has yielded 37 sacks during the regular season.  Expect Danny Shelton to give this offense a lot of issues along with Kikaha and Hudson off the edge.  This is a team that put up 9 on TCU and 7 vs. Texas the only 2 teams in the top 30 in yards per play allowed.  Washington is 27th.

On the flip side Washington put up some big points at the end of the year also inflating this total in my opinion, but their offense is ranked 96th in adjusted offense.  This is a team that has not beaten a bowl team all year long, but they have won the games they were supposed to.  They will run the ball 60% of the time which should shorten the game quite a bit considering Washington's strong and experienced offensive line will create issues for Oklahoma State as well.  Look for RB Dwayne Washington to have a strong day running the ball, but when they get into the red zone they will have issues.  Mike Gundy is an excellent coach and his players do not give up.  They have played well in the red zone all year long allowing just 57% conversions.  Washington's offense has had little success here only scoring TD's on 52% of their opportunities and 36% over their last 8 games.  I can easily see Washington winning this game and even getting to 30 points, but their defense is just too strong and Oklahoma State will be starting a QB with little experience.  

Ohio State +8 2.2* play

Florida State +8 5.5* NCAAF POD

Oregon has been extremely impressive to close out the year and probably deserve to be more than a TD favorite, but this is new territory for Florida State who haven’t lost in 2 seasons.  They have not been a dog since 2011 at Clemson and I think they will be extra motivated because of it.  Not only does Florida State have more talent as far as more guys will be NFL draft picks, but I think they have the better QB for a big game like this.  I’m still not sold on what Marcus Mariota can do in a big game and this is his chance to prove his doubters wrong.  Winston has proved it and he should be extra motivated in this spot as a big dog facing the QB that won the Heisman this year.  For Winston everything is behind him as far as what happened off the field and he gets to lead his team against the West Coast guys in Pasadena.

Florida State just never won with glamour this year and that’s the biggest difference between these two teams.  Many feel the ACC is down, but I have to disagree when you look at how they have performed this bowl season.  Boston College played well against Penn State, Duke covered and gave Arizona State who similarly to Oregon was a TD favorite, Clemson just absolutely dominated Oklahoma and Virginia Tech got a nice win as well.  Now North Carolina was a bad team from the start, but there were highlights of a good team at times. 

It’s also worth noting that Florida State’s offense has opened up with the emergence of Dalvin Cook and the fact that they ran the ball against some pretty good defenses down the stretch including, 5.77 ypc vs. Louisville, 6.00 vs. Miami, 4.41 vs. Florida, and 5.42 vs. Georgia Tech.  Winston won’t have to do it on his own, but having balance from Cook makes him all that more dangerous.  At the end of the day 8.5 points is far too much with Winston in control and a defense that can make plays.  Oregon’s defense has had some pretty bad moments at time this year too and even if Oregon gets a head Florida State is always good for the back door cover.

Ole Miss +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; U56 2.2* BONUS

Losing to Arkansas on the road, Auburn at home in a game they should have won and losing by 3 at LSU is nothing to be ashamed by.  This is a team that beat Alabama and Miss State both were ranked high when they played them.  This is a team that also played Boise State in non-conference play and a total of 9 bowl teams.  TCU put up video game like numbers along the way, but after I saw Texas lose to Arkansas, and West Virginia to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to Clemson I am just not sold on the Big 12 right now.  Now TCU iss a different animal with a team that can play offense and defense, but in reality they had the 55th toughest schedule. Where is this team's big win?  West Virginia?  Who beat Baylor by 14? To my knowledge TCU has not played a defense that is even close to the talent level of Ole Miss. 

Ole Miss is ranked 6th in adjusted defensive rank and is probably even better with rest.  This team was banged up at the end of the year which will happen when you go through a schedule like theirs, but now they will benefit more from the time off along with the 297 mile trip compared to TCU who has to travel 750 miles.  Ole Miss is definitely pumped up to be in this bowl game against TCU and the public has been playing them hard with one simple reason. "This team is pissed it did not get into the playoff."  Of course they are and that's not a reason to bet them.  I think mentally it's more difficult to prepare for a big game like this when you think you should be playing on New Years instead.  TCU is an elite offense right?  Then why have they only converted 41% of their third downs and 60% of their red zone attempts into TD's?  I'm not buying it and an Ole Miss defense with a month to prepare should play better. 

I like this total, because both defenses are elite and at their best in the red zone.  Ole Miss and TCU will try to run the ball and each coach has been great in bowl games so I expect this game to stay close and relatively low scoring.  TCU had 36 forced turnovers this year which they relied on quite a bit to put up points and now they go up against Ole Miss who forced 28 themselves.  Expect a conservative game plan by each coach because of this, but at the end of the day I think Bo Wallace is the more experienced QB in big games and Ole Miss has the better defense so getting 3.5 points is a bargain.  The total looks good too as Ole Miss is 12-2 in their last 14 games while TCU is 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  Each opponent has kept their opponents under their season average.  TCU by a combined average of around 8 points, and Ole Miss by an average of 17 points.

Notre Dame/ LSU Under 52.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

First of all this game will be played on grass with two teams that will want to run the ball before they pass and two defenses that are clearly the strength and give each the best chance to win.  I expect LSU to control this game from start to finish with their veteran offensive line and talented running backs. Notre Dame will get a bit more healthy so I could see their defense stepping up to stop the run which fits their strengths far better.  Notre Dame should play even better knowing the running game is coming without much of a threat from the passing game.  On the flip side Notre Dame's strength is definitely its passing game, but they will face LSU the #1 ranked passing defense from an efficiency perspective. The last time they faced a defense this good was Stanford who they scored only 17 points on at home.

LSU's defense down the stretch was just a lock allowing 3, 10, 13, 17, and 17 points to some pretty good offenses along the way.  I could see this game going over if Notre Dame turns the ball over 4+ times, but otherwise I expect a game that neither team runs away with.  LSU struggles in the red zone so I don't expect them to have the ability to run away with this as they struggle to score down there, but LSU is very good on defense in the red zone allowing just 48.15% so that usually makes up for it.  LSU offenses have been better in years past and have never been able to put up points in bowl games, under 5-1 in their last 6 while Notre Dame is U35-17-1 in their last 53. 

Texas A&M +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

The Aggies will most certainly benefit more from the time off here after they went through a brutal schedule which many sources had as the third toughest schedule.  I had them with the 3rd most difficult schedule and West Virginia at #40.  A&M had a tough physical game they won against Arkansas, and then they played three top 5 ranked teams in Ole Miss, Miss State and Alabama.  All 3 were top 25 run defenses and play a physical brand of football.  They had 13 days off played LA Monroe, and went on the road to beat a top 5 Auburn team at the time showing that they still have the talent to compete with anyone in the country.  They finished up the season against Missouri and LSU who were two of the better teams in the country.

The SEC East was the best division in football that we have ever seen in my opinion and it can wear you down, but now with time to prepare we will see Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin at his best.  Sumlin is a very good coach who is 3-1 in bowl games and even blew out the Big 12 in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.  He's got Kyle Allen at QB a highly touted recruit who was playing his best, but the biggest key will be whether or not A&M can run the ball.  In their wins this year they averaged 5.45 ypc and 3.14 in losses.  Lucky enough they face a West Virginia defense they should be able to run on with their speed. You could say the same about West Virginia who also needs to run the ball and A&M's defense has definitely struggled, but the fact that West Virginia will start a QB with less experience and A&M certainly has the pass rush to get after Skyler Howard who faced Kansas State and Iowa State ranked 90th and 121st in pass rush.  A&M was ranked 18th in sack % and will force mistakes in this game as West Virginia was -15 in turnover margin this year with 28 lost. 

A&M will also enjoy a nice special teams advantage as their punter averages 44.5 and the West Virginia return game is among the worst at 3.24 yards per return ranking 124th.

Under 48 5.5* NFL POD

South Carolina +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

The public has pushed this line much too far and I'll jump on it.  The reason the public likes it?  SEC East is in a down year and went 0-4 vs. the ACC the final week of the season, but Miami does not typically play an SEC team.  Teams under Al Golden usually fall quickly and they have lost 3 in a row.  I knew their season was over when they lost to Florida State in dramatic fashion.  I just don't see what Al Golden has accomplished in his career.  He's 55-55 as a head coach and I get he's had tremendous obstacles to over come but really with the talent he has he hasn't been close to having a break out year.  A lot of people have said the ACC is having a down year and really where has Miami's top win come fro?  They beat Duke at home and they were supposed to.  Meanwhile South Carolina beat Georgia, and they went on the road to beat Florida.  They also have a dual offense with a ton of experience and a ton of guys leaving for the NFL so motivation of playing in their last football game is very high.

At the end of the day the Independence Bowl is not very exciting for an SEC program like South Carolina, but the motivation is that they are playing Miami.  They also want to finish with a winning record.  The last time a Steve Spurrier coached team didn't was 1987. 

NC State/UCF Under 49 4.4* NCAAF POD

I am playing the under in this game as I just think the match up is right for it.  Neither team has a dual offense that can pass and run and both run the ball more because of that.  In close games they will run the ball even more (over 60% of the time) and that's what we are going to have on our hands here tonight.  I would lean towards NC State, but you just can't fade O'Leary in a bowl game.  I think UCF's offense is just not very good and it all starts up front where they ranked 111th in adjusted line yards.  I think they will have issues with an athletic NC State defensive line which just got finished holding UNC's potent offense to 7 points and 207 total yards.

On the other side of the ball you have NC State coming off 35 and 42 point efforts but against sub par defenses.  UCF is a dual threat defense they can stop both the run and pass and are ranked 4th in yards per play.  NC State has had 4 games against top 30 defensive yards per play units and have averaged 14 points.  They also won't have as much luck in the red zone against Central Florida who is holding opponents to 44% TD percentage so I expect a lot of field goals.  On the flip side UCF is one of the worst offenses in the red zone with 50% TD percentage and NC State's defensive unit holding opponents to 58%, but take out Georgia Tech and Florida State and they are holding opponents to 44%.  Expect both teams to move the ball at times, but I don't expect a lot of TD's in this game.  Central Florida has the neutral field advantage having to travel less than 100 miles compared to NC State at 601 but the reverse line movement on the spread hints to me this is going to be a close game and a low scoring one at that. 

San Diego State -2.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams really had a down year compared to their standards.  Navy is used to winning the Commander Chief's trophy and San Diego State is used to being in contention in their conference, but both will get to a bowl game again.  For Navy I just feel like they have too much to over come.  San Diego State is playing a home game here in their own field and Navy is 2-5 in their last 7 bowl games.  San Diego State will have 14 extra days to prepare for the triple option and it should not be much trouble for them. 

Both teams need to run to win and that's what they hang their hat on, but Navy has issues stopping the run while San Diego State has been more consistent in that area.  The Aztecs head coach Rocky Long is no stranger to preparing for a triple option attack.  He faces Air Force every year and due to where they are located would face Army each year.  They have won their last 8 games vs. Army/Navy/Air Force dating back to the 2010 season with margin of victories around 14.6 points on average.  This is just too much in a short period of time for Navy to come off the high of beating Navy go all the way to the other side of the country and beat a team playing at home that has extra preparation and is used to preparing for your offense. 

BYU +2 4.4* NCAAF POD

I like BYU here in this game for a vareity of reasons.  First of all only 1 guy on Memphis team has bowl experience.  BYU looked worse than they did down the stretch and they will be as healthy as they have been all year int his game with the exception of Taysom Hill obviously, but this team did not seem to miss a beat without Hill.  Justin Fuente is the new hot thing for coaching given what he did with Memphis this year, but he did it in one of the worst conferences.  In fact his last 6 opponents offenses ranked no better than 94th in yards per play.  That will make any defense look elite.  Bronco Mendenhall quietly leads a team of men who will be focused and experienced in this game and certainly not distracted by Miami Beach.  Mendenhall is 4-1 in his last 5 bowl games and 3-0 against non-major conference teams.

BYU's defense is every bit as good as Memphis and they did it in a better conference facing teams like Boise State and in non conference they went up against Cal and Texas.  When Memphis stepped up in competition facing UCLA they allowed 42 points.  BYU as I mentioned before did not skip a beat with Christian Stewart taking over at QB.  In fact he finished with 22 TD's and 6 interceptions.  In adjusted opponent efficiency BYU's offense ranked 33rd to Memphis at 84th.  Memphis offense needs to run the ball to win.  They have 24 TD's and 4.61 yards per carry in wins, but 2.81 and 4 TD's in losses.  BYU is one of the best teams in run defense year in and year out and Memphis does not pose quite the threat through the air.  When BYU can concentrate on stopping the run the defense has great success and I think it will here again.  Another thing that would scare me about Memphis is the fact that they relied heavily on turnover to win games.  BYU only turned the ball over 5 times in their last 4 games. 

Steelers -2.5 3.3* play

close your eyes and picture Steelers vs. Chiefs on neutral field.  Who would win or who would be favored?  The oddsmaker's are saying it's the Chiefs, and I may seem like a square here today, but I'm taking the Steelers.  The Steelers defense has been horrible and the Chiefs offense looked great a week ago, but I find it hard to believe the Chiefs offense can look that good back to back weeks.  The majority of the year the Chiefs offense has struggled and even though the Steelers struggle on defense I still think this defense can put together a solid game against a one dimensional attack.  The Chiefs still don't have a WR with a TD reception this year while the Steelers are #1 in the league in offensive yards per play.

The Steelers have a balanced offense and the entire strategy of the Chiefs defense is getting to the QB.  That is just not going to happen when you have one of the best QB's in the league and a balanced offense.  At this time of the year I like to say defense wins championship and the Chiefs definitely have the better defense but they are flawed.  They can't stop the run 30th in the league allowing 4.9 yards per carry and their secondary is suspect when their terrific pass rushers don't get to the QB. Big Ben has been sacked just 1.49% of his drop backs over the last 3 weeks.  I expect the Steelers to win to stay pace with the their division foes.

UTAH/COL ST U58 5.5* NCAAF POD

I will gladly take the under here and we are getting tremendous value here based on a few scenarios.  First of all Colorado State has put up some points and Utah's defense the last two weeks of the season has looked average, but give Kyle Whittingham extra time to prepare for an offense and he usually shuts them down.  Facing opponents with extra rest he held 3 power 5 conference opponents to an average of 18 points per game.  Colorado State has had a very nice season, but their head coach left for Florida and they have faced some bad defenses along the way.  Only 3 ranked in the top 70 and they averaged just 21 points against those never topping 24.  I mean they faced 128th, 126th, 124th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective.  You are going to put up points against those type of defenses.  Utah is not as bad as they looked the last two weeks of the season and their defense will rebound.

For Colorado State it all starts with the passing game.  In wins they have a 180 QB rating and in losses they have a 129.  Utah has one of the best front seven's in the country and rank #2 in pass rush.  Colorado State faced 4 teams with top 40 pass rushing units and they struggled against all 4 never scoring more than 24 points and going just 2-2.  Now this will still be a tough game for Utah to win and that's why I won't play them ATS.  However, the match up in their favor is Colorado State's rushing defense.  Colorado State also lacks depth on their front and rank 81st in ypc run defense.  Utah's offense with Devontae Booker should be able to run and pick up first downs while moving the clock.  This team likes to win those low scoring game which I think this will be in the end. 

Cowboys +3.5 3.3* Play

I liked the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now I certainly can not go against that just 3 weeks later.  Tony Romo is a different QB here tonight in my opinion as he just really was no healthy on Thanksgiving.  The Cowboys have the revenge, but they have 3 extra days of rest which is a huge huge deal at this point in the season.  The Cowboys offensive line will have a deciding advantage when you look at the physical game the Eagles had to play just a week ago against the Seahawks.  It's also interesting to note that the Cowboys have played better on the road on defense all year long.  That's mainly due to the fact that the Cowboys will stick to the running game longer on the road.  It's the best game plan for them and I think it works tonight just because of the extra rest and given the opponent that the Eagles had to face a week ago.

What is also impressive is that this Dallas offense is #1 in third down conversion % overall and on the road due to their excellent run game.  The Cowboys also won't have to deal with a stacked box if the Eagles are smart about it as a healthy Tony Romo can pull off the play action game better than any QB.  The extra game preparation off a loss with revenge will give the Cowboys an excellent chance to keep the Eagles off guard while the defense should have a good game against Mark Sanchez who for the first time this year is facing a defense for the second time.  A lot of people are giving Chip Kelly credit for what he does following a loss, but... 3-0 This year and his wins have come against the Texans, Titans, and Rams which neither of those 3 teams are going to the playoffs.  Last year this Cowboys team whose defense was atrocious held the Eagles to 3 poitns in their own building.  That was after this elite offense that was putting up 30pts off back to back games.  Chip Kelly is good, but it's worth mentioning he's 5-14-1 ATS in his last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Vikings +8 5.5* NFL POD

In the last match up Teddy Bridgewater really struggled with 0 TD and 3 interceptions against a good defense, but Bridgewater has really progressed since then and this Vikings team has been covering games.  I still think the Lions are over rated and although their offense is healthy they face a Vikings defense that knows them pretty damn well.  The Lions have only scored 30 points 3x this year all vs. shitty defenses which the Vikings are in the average to above average tier.  The Lions are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following a 30+ point game in their previous game.  It's a good trend to look at, because just as you think Matthew Stafford is about to turn the corner he comes up with a bad performance.  Stafford is a records hoarder, but I don't see him as a leader of a team that can win meaningful games in December.  I won't be shocked if the Vikings come up with the divisional upset here.  The Vikings are playing their best when and where it matter, in the red zone.  Over their last 3 games they have allowed opponents to score just 30% of the time and they themselves have scored 75% of the time.  Those trends continue here today.

Colts -1 / Bengals +8.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week

The Colts know if they win this game they lock up the division and I think they should win easily while the Bengals go on the road to play a Browns team getting a ton of credit right now.  It is still the Bengals division to win and I think they put up a fight with the teaser giving us great value here.  Manziel makes his first start against a very good defense and I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a lot of trouble here.  Welcome to the NFL Manziel on a huge stage with a game your team needs you to win.

Ohio State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Ohio State +175 1.5* play

This has tight game written all over it.  Wisconsin has soared as almost what you’d consider to be a heavy favorite.  Ohio state has had issues vs. the run the last few weeks and Wisconsin obviously has the best rushing offense they have faced.  A lot of experts are saying whoever runs the ball better wins this game, but I’m not so sure.  Ohio State actually is allowing more yards per run in their wins than their losses and Wisconsin is rushing for the same in their wins and losses.  I think the team that wins is going to be the team whose QB plays better and plays better in the red zone, but either way we are looking at a conservative game late with the QB play just not being there and two extremely talented defenses against the run.

Ohio State has Cardale Jones coming in and I think it’s harder for Wisconsin because they really do not know what they are going to see.  Urban Meyer also is very good with QB’s in his system and I’m not worried one bit.  I mean try to think back and tell me who the last bad QB was under Meyer?  Even Kenny Guiton put up 14 TD and 2 INT last year while Miller was out.  Shit if you look back to his Utah days Urban Meyer has produced a QB rating the last 9 seasons he’s coached of 16th, 3rd, 37th, 24th, 1st, 8th, 1st, 10th, and 3rd which is ridiculous.  So whatever line they moved for this game because of the QB play I’m thinking we have value being on the side of a coach that’s better than his opponent.

I also think Joel Stave is going to have a lot of issues moving the ball when he has to.  In Wisconsin losses he has a 51 QB rating and in wins he has a 147.  Ohio State has only allowed 7 passing TD’s and has 13 INT’s in conference play.  They are +5 in turnover margin while Wisconsin is -2.  Wisconsin is also not very good in red zone defense which should be the difference as they are allowing 72% TD rate when opponents get there.

Oregon/Arizona U74.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total makes a lot of sense when you see the first game got to 50+ points with Oregon playing with 4 new offensive linemen.  I would have leaned towards Oregon to cover the spread, but I did not get it at -13.5 in time.  I actually like the total play, because I think Oregon's defense is going to shut this Arizona offense out.  This is an offense that's not as good as it was in previous years while the Oregon defense has been improving.  Arizona is not running the ball as well as it did last year and we get a high total based on what?

Arizona has scored 42 points the last 2 weeks, but in one game they needed 4 turnovers, and the other they only had 333 yards, but relied on big plays.  I don't see either happening on Friday night.  This game is also on the grass which should slow the game down a bit if Arizona does not already play their part in doing so with their run first mentality.  Oregon's offense has struggled against this 3-3-5 defense that Arizona plays and I think it will at times again.  I don't see them getting to 50 points while I could easily see them in the 40's.  I see a max score of 45-28 or 42-31, but more than likely this Oregon defense is going to hold Arizona under 30 points which should get us the under in this one.  This was a game that was 7-3 at the half during the regular season and both defenses held their opposing offense under 500 total yards.

Teaser of the Week Bonus - 10-1 This Season

Northern Illinois -0.5 / Cincinnati -1 (See Free Pick for N. ILL reasoning)

 This team has a ton to play for on Saturday while Houston really not so much.  With a win the Bearcats could share the league title and they should easily be motivated to do so.  What is impressive is that this team only lost to Ohio State, Memphis (best team in the AAC), and Miami (2 of 3 of those were on the road).  Houston has beaten the teams they should and lost to the ones they should and this is just too much for them to do.  Go on the road with your one dimensional offense in the last game of the season and face a team that features the best offense you have faced all year  and beat them while spoiling their chances at winning their conference title.  I don't think it will happen and I love the fact that Cincinnati who is not as strong on defense has been dominant in the red zone and much better in conference play.  Take out the Miami and Ohio State games and this defense is just fine.  Houston is going to have issues scoring in this game.  Houston also has to face Cinci a top 30 offense in yards per play.  Houston has not faced 1 other school this year that is in the top 50.

 Broncos +1 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Broncos here I have been saying for weeks that the Chiefs are over rated. Everyone thinks of the Chiefs as a top tier defense and for the most part they are, but this defense has one glaring weakness and it is stopping the run.  The Chiefs are ranked 32nd allowing 5.0 yards per carry and they are allowing 5.6 over their last 3 alone.  Denver's 3 road losses came to the Rams where they only rushed the ball 10 times, the Patriots 17 times and the Seahawks 20-36.  Denver should take the lead first in this game and use the running game to close this one out.  They are undefeated when they run for more than 100 yards and I think they can easily get that tonight if they stay dedicated.  Peyton Manning will not hesitate to hand the ball off more times than he throws especially in a game where his defense can handle their own facing one of the worst offenses in the league.

The Chiefs go up against the Broncos run defense which is #2 in the league and #1 in rushing defense on the road allowing 3.1 yards per carry.  I think it's just a bad match up and this the type of game the Broncos made acquisitions for in the off season to win.  I see them winning big and I'll take the points.

LSU -2.5 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5* SEC GOW POD

Both even records and why is LSU favored to begin with?  This is just a tough match up for Texas A&M in my opinion.  Texas A&M needs to pass the ball to be successfull and that's LSU's defensive strength.  LSU needs to run the ball to be successful on offense and that'st Texas A&M's weakness.  This just sets up perfectly for a hungry LSU team off two consecutive losses.  First of all lets go over the Arkansas disaster.

Losing to Arkansas 17-0 and this team was not happy about it.  A lot factored into this and it was my SEC game of the month.  Arkansas was craving their first SEC win and were beyond due coming off a bye while LSU just got done losing a heartbreaker to Alabama.  LSU also suffered 2 key injuries to their offensive line in that game and after the extra time both players will be back for this one which is great news.  LSU's offense struggles when they face teams that can stop the run.  In fact all 4 losses were against teams that can stop the run pretty damn well.  They also won 2 close games vs. Florida (10th in the nation vs. the run), and Wisconsin (4th).  However they are rushing for nearly 2 yards per carry more in their wins.  Key to the game - Run the damn ball!  On paper it says LSU can not run on the road, but that is a bunch of bull shit.  All of their road games have come against opponents that are elite in stopping the run.  Now A&M is pure trash against the run.  Ranking 105th in yards per carry allowed.  They are 105th in adjusted line yards allowed, 124th in standard down yards, 103rd in opponent power success and 115th in stuff rate.  LSU's offensive line is the strength and it's a veteran bunch that are pissed off about how they played at Arkansas.  Watch what happens in their last game of the season.

LSU defensively now are a good match up they are ranked 16th in adjusted line yards.  They can have trouble stopping the run sometimes but have improved down the stretch.  Their pass defense is the real strength and when A&M can't pass they lose.  In fact all 4 of their losses have come against these 4 pass defensive rankings, 26th, 9th, 11th, and 27th and LSU is 3rd.  This is the best pass defense they have faced all year.  A&M's wins were against pass defenses all ranked outside the top 50 at 77, 91, 127, 87, 58 and 55.  LSU should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and control it on defense on third down and in the red zone.  Texas A&M is allowing 80% red zone TD's to opponents in conference play while LSU comes in at 50%.  

Lastly, LSU also takes care of the ball with just 2 turnovers on the road on the season combined.  Meanwhile Texas A&M is -6 at home.

Dallas Cowboys -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

There is no way I can trust Mark Sanchez in this spot.  Philadelphia’s defense is not good enough to carry this team and they are susceptible against the run on the road allowing 4.4 yards per carry which is a full yard more than what they allow at home.  Dallas is 2nd in the league in rushing yards per carry behind arguably the best offensive line in the league.  The Eagles have all three of their losses at home and have not faced a team in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry since the Redskins in Week 3 who they gave up 34 points to and barely hung on at home 37-34.  Dallas is #1 in adjusted line yards at 4.57 compared with Philadelphia at 3.34 ranking 30th.  Dallas has found ways to win all season long and their aggressive defensive style should force some critical mistakes for the Eagles on the road. 

Teasing Lions -1 / U53.5 for 3.3* play BONUS

Lions losing 4 out of the last 5 games ATS, Bears 2 straight wins and covers at home against crappy teams.  Value on the Lions.  The Lions have gone under by an average of 9.6 points per game.  In their 8 games against non-elite offenses the Bears are allowing under 20 points per game.  Both offenses have star players, but have been underperforming this year as the Bears are ranked 17th in yards per play while the Detroit Lions are ranked 27th.

Also both defenses have been great in the red zone. Chicago allowing just 51% TD % in the red zone ranking 11th, and 48% on the road while the Detroit Lions come in at 12th, but allowing just 42.86% on the road.  Detroit’s offense who you would give an edge at home is ranked 24th in red zone TD% and is only converting 46.67%.  I think this is a lot of points on a short week with both offenses really not blowing anyone away.  Overall I think the Lions have the stronger defense and are the more desperate team following 2 straight losses on the road while Chicago is off 2 straight wins.

Texans -1.5 -105 5.5* NFL POD

USC +4 4.4* NCAAF POD

USC has lost the last two years to Brett Hundley, but this year feels different.  UCLA's defense gave up 37 points to Colorado and 30 to Washington and those are two offenses that do not scare you.  Cody Kessler has NFL players on his side and he's been playing just as good as Brett Hundley on the other side and USC features the better defense led by stud Leonard Williams.  In fact I think USC has the better players on both sides when you watch WR Nelson Agholor.  Kessler will have plenty of time to pass considering UCLA is 109th at getting to the QB.  UCLA's defense is also not stopping the run at all at home allowing 4.48 ypc and while USC has not been a physical imposing running game, Javorius Allen is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and has 8 100 yard games.  This is where USC will win the game, because on the flip side they are allowing 2.91 yards per carry in conference play.

Speaking of which in conference play these two teams have similar statistics.  What is surprising actually is the fact that USC's QB play is slightly better and USC's run defense is allowing over 1 yard less on the ground.  If they can contain Hundley they win this game going away, but I think it will be more difficult than that.  The key stats though are 3rd down offense, defense and TD percentage in the red zone along with turnover margin.  USC in conference play has better numbers in all 5 categories.  On neutral field I would probably set them as a 2 point favorite so I think getting 4 points on the road gives us value.  USC behind better coaching should finally do something they couldn't do the last two years and that's beat UCLA. 

Washington -0.5 /Stanford 0.5 6pt teaser 4.4*

Washington is back home off a big loss with a fumble in the 4th quarter and they get to play an Oregon State team that is pretty happy with itself after facing Arizona State at home and crushing their dreams at a spot in the top 4 in the college playoff.  A hangover going on the road is inevitable here for Oregon State who has a shaky offensive line and has been unable to protect their senior QB Sean Mannion.  NT Danny Shelton is one of the best in the nation and DE Andrew Hudson is no slouch as they are 16th in sack % and should dominate this game at the point of attack.  Oregon State is only converting 25% of their third downs in conference play.

Stanford beat Cal by 50 points last year.  Their offense has been shaky all year and this spread deserves to be where it is, but Stanford's offense should finally get going here against Cal, a team that is 110th in yards per play on defense.  Everyone is up on this Cal team and they covered the spread with luck last week against USC.  Stanford meanwhile has looked awful, but I see them turning it up here.  They put up 30+ points in big wins in each of their match ups against teams ranked worse than 100 in the nation in yards/play allowed.  Cal's offense has looked great, but they have been shut down when they have played good defenses and Stanford still has that going for them ranked 3rd in yards allowed.

Raiders +7.5 4.4* NFL POD; Raiders +295 1* play

This is a perfect let down spot for a Chiefs team that has been playing over their head.  Why can't the Raiders break their losing streak? The Chiefs have been outgained in 3 games in a row yet they are 3-0.  Besides this is a division game and the Raiders should be up for this.. It's almost their Super Bowl in a way and the Chiefs come off a very very big win against Seattle and have to go on the road before getting Denver at home the following week.  Off a big win with a big game on deck facing an 0-10 team on the road.  It's hard for any team to not look past the Raiders right now.  The Raiders only lost 24-30 in Seattle and I think their offense has more potential than Kansas City. 

K State +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD

Since West Virginia has joined the Big 12, November has not been a good month with Dana Holgorsen going 2-8.  Kansas State and Bill Snyder hold a significant advantage in coaching and the fact that both teams have 11 days to prepare gives me a strong lean towards Bill Snyder and Kansas State coming off a big loss.  This is a perfect opportunity and I really like what the captains have been saying in the media about their opportunity to get over that loss to TCU.  Kansas State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss of 20+ points, and they are 15-3 ATS (83% ANGLE!!) in their last 18 following a SU loss all together.  Here is the coaching mismatch though... Dana Holgorsen since joining the Big12 with West Virginia is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS with extra preparation.  He clearly does not know how to get his players prepared for games with extra rest.  His only 2 wins were when they were 4 TD+ favorites and he's had numerous fails as a home favorite.  Bill Snyder on the other hand is 7-1 SU & ATS during that same time period with his only loss vs. a nasty and athletic Oregon team in a bowl game.

Extra preparation and trends are not enough to just write in a W for the Wildcats so I took it deeper.  Both teams have won when they can run the ball and stop the run.  Both have had success stopping the run in conference play when they have faced vanilla rushing offenses, but have struggled vs. teams with a running QB.  Kansas State has the running QB in Waters and the blocking to go with it while West Virginia does not.  West Virginia is giving up 4.72 ypc on the year in conference play.  Meanwhile Kansas State has really only struggled in run defense twice.  Against Oklahoma and TCU which feature more dynamic rushing offenses than West Virginia.  Similarly their rushing offense has only been stopped 3 times.  All 3 of those oppoennts ranked inside the top 50 in stopping the run (Auburn, Texas, and TCU), while West Virginia ranks 97th.  They've given up 5.90 yards per carry in losses and 3.70 in wins.

I took it a step further and looked at Trickett and Waters both veteran QB's at this stage in their career.  Trickett's numbers look a bit better because of hte offense he's in but Waters has better numbers in conference play with a 152QB rating while Trickett has 135 passing for just 11 TD's and 7 INT's.  He'll have issues against Kansas State too because they have allowed just 8 TD passes to 9 INT's in conference play.  West Virginia's pass defense is very very good, but that's not at all how Kansas State tries to win.  Kansas State will rely on their unique rushing offense with a few passes sprinkled in and they have the talent at receiver in Sexton and Lockett to give the Mountaineers issues.

Stats do not lie at this point in the season and it's clear Kansas State is the better team coming into a better situation.  Their 3rd down offense in conference play is considerably better, but their red zone offense and defense is what makes me super confident in this play.  In the red zone over 6 conference games, Kansas State has 27 attempts converting 74% into TD's while on defense they have allowed 18 att and 55% TD's.  Compared with West Virginia who has 21 attempts over 7 games in the red zone converting just 57% and allowing 70% TD's over 20 attempts.  Red zone is where these tight battles are won and I give a significant advantage to Kansas State who knows how to get the most out of their opportunities.  

[b]Seahawks +1.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]

The Seahawks are a dog on the road to the Chiefs?  They have no business being a dog here considering the Chiefs have been really lucky of late.  Last week the Bills fumbled 3 times including once in the end zone and their head coach passed up field goals that would have given them the win over the Chiefs.  The same thing the week before as the Jets outgained them by nearly 100 yards.  Yes, the Jets out gained them and now they are favored against a team that is in the top 10 in yards/play in offense and defense.

The Broncos are the only opponent in the top 14 in yards/play offense that this Chiefs team has played and they lost.  The Seahawks will win this game and look forward to their next game against the Cardinals to reclaim the division.

[b] Packers +1/Saints -1 4.4* 6 point teaser[/b]

The Saints suffered a rare loss at home to the 49ers under Sean Payton that just does not happen. They had won 20 straight prior to that and are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 games.  Now the Saints get the Bengals angry after losing at home and getting embarrassed on Thursday night, but the Saints are in a thick division hunt and I doubt they care about that.  I look for the Saints to win this game, but 7 points is a lot and it’s mainly due to the fact that the Bengals looked awful vs. the Browns.  The reality is the Bengals are not that bad, but I don’t see them winning this game. I’ll take the Saints in a teaser with….

The Packers.  The Packers have been almost unbeatable at home.  Aaron Rodgers is just too good and he’s beaten good QB after good QB.  He has yet to throw an interception at home and the Eagles are coming in high off their win with their new QB Mark Sanchez, but now Sanchez has to win on the road against a very good team.  I have trust in Sanchez in this system, but he’s got to put up 30+ points here and I don’t see it happening not the way the Packers have played at home.

Arkansas pk 5.5* SEC GOY

Arkansas has not won an SEC game since early 2012 against Kentucky.  It has not really been their fault this year considering their 5 opponents are Auburn, A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Miss State.  Arkansas played MIss State and Alabama in similar fashion to what LSU did.  Actually they played better than LSU did against Miss State.  I just think this is the perfect spot for Arkansas to finally get their first SEC win.  They come off a bye, and LSU comes off a very physical game at home that went to OT against their biggest rival in Alabama.  This is a hang over spot for LSU or they will just be more banged up than a fresh Arkansas team that is hungry to finally win a conference game and get back into the possibility of going to a bowl game.

This LSU team is built on the running game much like Arkansas so I took a look at what each team did in conference play and at home and away and Arkansas comes back with more balance and the better run defense.  If LSU was capable of passing the ball this could be a different story, but Anthony Jennings has a 120 QB rating and is completing less than 50% of his passes.  Jennings shocked Arkansas last year at home with a 49 yard TD pass with 1:15 to play to capture a 31-27 victory over Arkansas.  Arkansas has been close to an SEC win numerous times and now they get a true home game.  LSU is making just its 3rd true road game and the numbers aren't good.

LSU rushing offense in conference games is averaging 4.14 ypc and they are backed by a very good and veteran offensive line, but on the road just 3.45 yards per carry.  LSU comes to the line and makes a lot of checks which is a big reason why they will struggle on the road.  They also are not blessed with a balanced attack so the defense knows what is coming.  Arkansas ont he other hand has Brandon Allen who is more efficient and complete nearly 60% of his passes 15 TD and 5 INT.  He's got a next level TE in Hunter Henry making plays each and every game.  Arkansas rushing offense has been slightly better in conference play 4.29 ypc, but 5.77 at home.

LSU's rushing defense has been hit or miss 4.71 ypc in conference play they allowed 150 more yards against Miss State than Arkansas did.  Arkansas has played well against physical running teams holding both Miss State and Alabama in check.  Their defense has allowed 4.64 ypc in conference play (less than LSU) and 3.25 at home.  Arkansas also finally faces an SEC team that can't pass the ball.  All 5 opponents had QB's with passer ratings above 150 which is just insane when you consider all 5 can also run the ball.  Arkansas should be able to play defense with the extra prep and do their thing on offense to dominate time of possession.  Their defense has held opponents to 30% conversions on third down at home while LSU has only converted 28% of theirs on the road.  In the end it will be Brandon Allen will be the reason why Arkansas comes away with a win on a very very cold night. 

[b]Cal +14.5 3.3* POD[/b]

The only teams USC has blown out this year have been Fresno, Oregon State, Colorado and Washington State.  All of those teams are unlikely to go bowling with a combined record of 13-25.  California is definitely experiencing a resurgence here this season and even their losses are not that bad.  The big losses against Washington and Oregon were due to fumble issues the offense had otherwise they played well with both but had nearly half their turnovers all year in that game.  Cal played right with UCLA and Arizona in 2 games decided by 6 points.  

USC has had issues stopping opponent passing games and Jared Goff should have another big day and improve on his 27 TD and 4 interceptions this year.  Goff is also doign it in the conference with 21 TD and 3 INT's.  He's played well on the road too and USC's pass rush has been non-existent ranking 89th in sack % and they are 100th in passing yards allowed.  USC also has some bigger games up next @UCLA and Notre Dame and could be looking ahead a bit.

[b]Bills +10.5 / Cincinnati +7.5 3.3* Teaser[/b] 

BILLS -1.5 5.5* NFL POD