Tampa Bucs +3 2.2*/

Cardinals -1/Packers -1.5 6pt tease 4.4* play

Michigan St -3 -120 5.5* POD

This is my play of the day.  A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten.  I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska.  However, I like their chances here at home.  Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%.  Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second.  Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance. 

Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated.  He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes.  The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home.  Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush.  Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who?  The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech.  The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more.

Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25.  Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75.  So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides.  Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense.  For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State.  Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions.  The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run.  

Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year.  They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler. 

[b]Bengals -6 4.4* NFL POD[/b]

I'll go with the home team here on the short week.  The Browns are not a good football team despite their record and they are getting more credit than they deserve.  The Browns are 5-3, but their last 4 wins came against the Titans (big come back), Oakland, Tampa Bay, and PIttsburgh (who was playing their 4th road game 5 weeks).  The other 3 are a combined 3-21 and they lost to the Jaguars 24-6 in between.  They were very lucky to even get by the Titans at the time when Jake Locker got injured before the half when they were trailing by 25 points to the Titans.  This is not a team of destiny and they are going to fade fast especially without Alex Mack.  Without Mack the rushing offense went form averaging 154 to 54.

On the other side the Bengals who opened the year as everyone's dark horse to challenge the Broncos for the AFC Championship are 5-2-1.  However, looka t who they have played, New England, Baltimore 2x, and the Colts.  Those are some of the best QB's in the league for you fantasy football fans out there.  Now the Bengals get to face the Browns unimpressive passing game and a rushing game that's not going anywhere especially on the road.   This is a very good home team and I see them dominating this game as they have to in order to keep their distance in a tight division.  

NY Jets +10 5.5* NFL POD & Game of the Month!

lock this in early as the line will surely go down.  I really like Mike Vick with a full week to prepare and play with this offense he really adds another dynamic that Geno Smith clearly did not.  Also as bad as the Jets looked they actually out gained the Bills on Sunday and doubled their # of first downs.  6 turnovers will get you beat no matter what.  At this point the Jets have to go back to the run and adding Mike Vick's versatile style to the mix can only help with a full week of reps with the first team.

For the Chiefs their offense is not explosive enough to take advantage of the Jets weaknesses which is in the pass defense.  The Jets are absolutely stout in the front 7 and have one of the best defensive lines in football.  The Chiefs will run first and pass second even with Andy Reid and their offensive line is 28th in pass protection and they are just 25th in passing yards per pass attempt.  When you look at the Jets secondary they have played 3 of the top 5 passing teams + Tom Brady.  Right now stock is as low as it's ever been for the Jets and I'll jump on them to cover this spread on the road.

San Jose State +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State is looking like the real deal at 7-1 winning on the road against Boston College.  IN all three of their close games and losses have come against top 60 pass defenses.  Grayson leads Colorado State with a 165 QB rating in 4 conference games, but he’s not as good on the road (136).  They won by 3 vs. Utah State who has the 30th ranked pass defense, by 3 against BC who has the 57th, and they lost against Boise State by 13 who is ranked 47th.  Enter San Jose State who is ranked #1 in opponent QB rating, #1 in opponent yards/attempt, and #1 in opponent completion %.  They even held Auburn to 135 yards passing and they have allowed just 1 passing TD all year without any QB passing for more than 150 yards.

Part of their dominance is nobody tries to pass on them, but Colorado State is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in the running game and will have issues on the road against this team.  San Jose State would have a better record if it weren’t for their -7 TO margin in losses.  Good news for them Colorado State’s defense is below average and has only forced a total of 7 turnovers on the season.  A further look at common opponents and San Jose was +194 vs. Wyoming on the road, Col State was +104 at home.  As well as +190 vs. Nevada and while Colorado State was -12 on the road.  San Jose State has been a dog 2 of the last 3 years but have won all of these meetings.  Colorado State is a very good team, but San Jose State has already played Navy, Minnesota and Auburn so this is nothing new for them.

Saints -2.5 5.5* nfl play of the day

Virginia Tech +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I think the Hokies will cover and win this game outright.  The stock on the Hokies has plummeted, but they are still in the mix and could have won last week's game at Pittsburgh on the road without their top 3 running backs.  Now they are likely to have Marshawn Williams back against and easier defense to move the ball against and they get to face them at home.  Miami has already given up 300+ yards on the ground to two opponents this year which should allow Virginia Tech to put some points on the board. 

Virginia Tech's defense is the main reason why I'll take the Hokies.  Bud Foster's group is still at top 15 unit and can stop the pass and run.  Virginia Tech will look to stop the run first to create third and longs.  I think the Hurricanes will be out coached in this game by far.  Virginia Tech is actually better than their numbers say against the run when you throw in how hard Georgia Tech's triple option is to stop.  The last time Miami faced a defense this good they lost 13-31 to Louisville.  Miami QB Brad Kaaya has not played well on the road with 2 interceptions in each game all 3 losses.  Virginia Tech will get after him with the 3rd ranked pass rush while Miami is a suspect 67th in protecting the QB.  What makes matters worse is they are actually converting on just 24.6% of their third downs and that's where Virginia Tech is set up well to win this game.

Miami is converting just 21% of third downs on the road and 24% overall compared with Virginia Tech's 44.5% and 50.7% at home and 26% on defense.  Miami is going to have issues converting there is no doubt about it while Virginia Tech should have more success.  Almost every offense that Miami's defense faced converted at a higher % on third down with exception of Duke where Miami was at home.  Even against Georgia Tech who was converting 59% on the season.  The same is true for the offense they converted at just 26% against their last two opponents who were allowing 50% to their opponents.  Now going against arguably the best defense they have faced.  The same issues are true in the red zone as they have converted just 53% TD's and have allowed 83% on the road.  Virginia Tech also struggles in the red zone but their defense has allowed 43%.

The big play... Bud Foster will have things solved and the defense should not give up any big plays here tonight at home with the blitzes and the front 7 getting to the QB just a bit faster at home.  Pitt beat this team with their QB taking off and that's not something Miami's QB can do at all. 

Saints +115 5.5* NFL POD

If you are going to win on the road in the NFL you better be able to protect your QB and run the ball.  A quick look and we know how dominating the Lions have been up front as they are leading the league in sack %, but a quick look reveals they have yet to face an offensive line in the top 15 of the league.  The Saints are 3rd in protecting their QB and they do a good job in run blocking to as the Saints are 2nd averaging 5.2 ypc.  Here is a look at the pass protection units the Lions have faced this year... 31st, 18th, 22nd, 25th, 16th, and 23rd.   They lost to both the 18th and 16th pass protection units and I think the Saints are desperate for a win.

The Saints off a bye and they will come into this game a little healthier and ready to turn their season around.  This team has always been a bad road team, but I'm just not that impressed with the Lions this year and this is a tough spot for them playing the Saints who are 2nd in 3rd down conversions to go along with their offensive line play against the pass and run.  Detroit is also without Calvin Johnson most likely which is definitely worth a few points.  I still think Mathew Stafford is one of the more over rated QB's blessed by having a freak of nature at WR for his career.  On the flip side Detroit is 30th in protecting Stafford and 31st with just 3.2 ypc.  IF there was ever an opportunity for the Saints to turn it around on defense this is the game.  

Arkansas +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

Arkansas is a desperate team here looking for a win in the SEC for the first time in 16 games.  They keep inching closer and closer and really out played Alabama at home last week, but an extra point miss kept them from winning this game or forcing OT.  Georgia meanwhile went on the road and flat out dominated Missouri 34-0, but they were not as good as that score indicates while Missouri turned the ball over 5 times.  MIssouri's defense was on the field for 42 minutes, yet they still held Georgia under 400 yards and Georgia never had an offensive play over 18 yards.  Meanwhile Arkansas under rated defense just got done holding Alabama to 227 yards.

Georgia's defense has been the story along with the running game, but when you look at it Georgia's defense has faced all of the weak teams in the SEC when it comes to offense.  They've faced only 1 team all year ranked in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they lost on the road to them 38-35 to South Carolina, a team that is not as good as Arkansas.  The other teams ranked 89th, 113th, 116th, 98th, and 97th in yards per play offense so I'm thinking this Georgia defense is not as good as they looked last week they almost certainly can not expect Arkansas to turnt he ball over 5 times.  Arkansas arguably is the first balanced offense that Georgia has faced all year.  Yes, Arkansas will run the ball 62% of the time and try to shorten the game, but Brandon Allen is healthy and has 10 TD and just 2 interceptions and they utilize their TE's who very hard to guard very well.  IF Georgia's schedule was based off last year's team then we'd be telling a different story, but all three big games - Clemson, MIssouri, and South Carolina look like completely different teams.

The SEC West is undefeated against the SEC East.  Arkansas defense that has struggled has faced 5 top 60 offenses and 4 in the top 30, 3 int he top 15.  Now Georgia is a one dimensional offense and Arkansas just got done shutting down Alabama's running game.  Todd Gurley is looking like he'll play and that has pushed this line up to +4 in some places and I couldn't help but jump on it as I think Arkansas is poised to win this game outright.  Georgia isn't as good and Arkansas continues to be under rated.  Look for the running game to keep it going while they convert third downs and keep the chains moving while Korliss Marshall makes plays in special teams to set up their first win in their last 16 tries in the SEC.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I have been all over this Utah team for years and I know them and their coaching staff very well.  So far this season I have predicted in my analysis Utah +405 ML at UCLA 2 weeks ago and I also predicted Washington State +425 at Utah for the win.  Utah is now ranked inside the top 25 and I won't play them as a road favorite.  As good as they are on defense they are a flawed team.  How many #1 pass rush teams who are #1 in sack % and #1 in sacks are giving up 43% conversions on third down?  Utah's front 7 is built on stopping the run and forcing teams into third and long and they've done a good job this year.  They have only faced one team ranked inside the top 87 in pass protection and that was Washington State who beat them in their own building.

Oregon State is just a bit more balanced than Washington State, but they have a veteran QB built on pass first mentality with very capable running backs averaging over 5 yards per carry.  Utah's defense is going to be tired by the end of this game and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon State take this game outright.  Their offensive line is still missing their best player, but this team has been tested facing 3 teams inside the top 60 in pass rush.  USC was ranked 94th but we all know they are better than that.  Oregon State lost by 25 at USC, but that was on the road and without their top WR target who will be back today for QB Sean Mannion.  Oregon State's defense has just as many strengths as Utah and Utah's offense is 95th in yards per play on offense.  They are not announcing their starting QB, but Oregon State has a defense that can plan for both led by 3 senior linebackers in the middle.

UL-Lafayette +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I'll take the Rajin Cajuns here as our POD catching 3 points on the road.  First of all I think this team is better prepared for this game they got essentially a bye after their game against Boise STate as they had to play GA STate as a 17 point favorite at home and nearly lost, but again this is the same team that at home against LA Tech was a 16 point favorite and lose by 28.  Public is down on them and so is Vegas yet they still have 18 returning starters compared with Texas State's 12 (4 on defense) and Texas State lost 24-48 and were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game.  I will take the dog in that scenario especially when you look at the fact that Lafayette has played Boise and Ole MIss while Texas State has the weakest strength of schedule in the country.

Texas State has played nobody in the top 90 in rushing offense or defense so their numbers look pretty good on offense with a 5.60 ypc and a QB rating over 150, but a lot of the rushing yardage came against Idaho who is ranked 124th vs. the run.  Texas State has only faced 2 teams who have a top 50 ranked rushing or passing offense (Illinois and Navy) and lost to both.  At lease UL Lafayette can run the ball and even did so against Ole Miss.  Terrance Broadway has had a terrible start, but he tossed 4 TD 0 INT in this match up last year and should have plenty of confidence coming into this game.  At the end of the day I just think the wrong team is favored based on public perception. 

Falcons -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

Listen both of these teams were supposed to have a better record at this point in the season, but they don't.  Bottom line is the Falcons are home and their home field advantage is probably worth more than 3 points.  Falcons are averaging over 500 yards at home while the Bears are averaging less than 300 on the road and though it has a lot to do with the competition both faced I think in the end it will be the Falcons that have more capability to move the ball with a balanced offense.  Atlanta is capable of moving the ball via Matt Ryan but this team is also running the ball well in the top 10 in yards per rush.  That's a big issue for this Bears defense that is not your Father's Bears defense.  The Bears have shown that a good running game and a good passing game can beat them.  Chicago is ranked 21st vs. the run and 25th in yards per pass attempt.  Atlanta #3 in the red zone in TD% and #1 in yards/play.  Falcons major advantage at home and need this game.

USC -2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Arizona is a top 15 team nationally and undefeated off a big win at Oregon as a 3+ TD favorite.  Now they go back home and they are under dogs against a team with 2 losses?  Well that's because USC is just a better team and I expect them to win and cover in this game.  Arizona beat Oregon last year as a +20.5 favorite and proceeded to lose the next week 21-58.  Oregon is not the top tier team we thought they were and haven't been the same since Chip Kelly went to the NFL.

First of all Arizona off this big win is due for a hang over or a let down whatever you want to call it.  Their offense is led by two freshmen and in QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson who probably think college football and winning is easy.  I think they are in for a rude awakening against a pissed off USC team that played well but lost on a hail mary at home.  When you look at Arizona's results and schedule they haven't faced a top defense especially in pass defense.  USC is 32nd in opponent QB rating, but Arizona has faced 86th, 109th, 55th, 100th, and 93rd so I'm not surprised Solomon has enjoyed so much success.  USC is also tough against the run despite their rank.  Boston College ran all over them and I'm going to throw that game out when you consider they just got done holding their last two opponents well under their season averages including Arizona State who is still ranked 13th in ypc despite rushing for under 2 yards per carry vs. USC's defense.

Arizona will have a tough time with Cody Kessler who is completing 69.5% of his pass without any interceptions.  He also has Javorious Allen who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and rushed for over 150 vs. a pretty good Stanford defense.  Arizona's pass defense is not good allowing a 151 QB rating and they have given up a higher QB rating to all 4 of their 5 opponents.  Oregon had a 170 QB rating but on the season average over 190.  Overall I just think USC is too good in their pass defense and they seemed to fix the issues in their run defense and we get them at a true bargain.  Before last week this spread probably would have been 5.5 or 6 point favorites.  USC has allowed just 25% conversions on third down and 46% TD's in the red zone and are +7 in turnover margin with 0 turnovers in their last 4 games.  Arizona is just not a good red zone team right now 52% TD percentage on offense and 67% on defense.  

WASHINGTON ST +17 4.4* NCAAF POD

BYU/UCF U45 4.4* NCAAF POD I don't see any value here on the home team despite covering on them last week as one of my POD's against Houston. Their offense looked awful and they are still ranked 119th in yards per play on the season. BYU has a solid defense ranked 36th in yards per play and they will rely heavily on their defense to carry them here since they are now without their star QB. If anything there is a ton of value on BYU here after they lost as a -21 favorite and lost their star QB Taysome Hill.. I can't back a team though starting a new QB on the road on short rest against a UCF defense that will also be pretty geared up at home and is very talented. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games, but I also like that both teams are top 40 in rushing play %. A lot of running and a lot of clock moving with both teams relying on their solid defense which gets better when opponents get into the red zone. Both teams have been very good on defense in the red zone with UCF allowing just 28% TD's in the red zone compared with BYU at 52%. I think this sets up nicely for the under as we see a totally different BYU offense.

Titans -1 5.5* NFL POD

This won't be the most exciting game I give you that, but I like the Titans to get back on track and win at home.  They get Jake Locker back who is still an upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst.  The Titans have had a tough schedule to start facing 4 playoff teams in my opinion.  They won at KC who looked great at home vs. the Patriots on Monday, they lost to Dallas who arguably has the best offensive line in the league, at Indy to a very good team, and at the Bengals to a team that has many picking them as the team that can beat Peyton Manning.  Not a lot of cupcakes on the schedule there, but facing the Browns this week and Jaguars next week their is potential for the Titans to be sitting at 3-3. 

The Browns are ranked 27th vs. the pass and 29th vs. the run and 31st in yards allowed per play.  Titans should be able to move the ball and even though the Browns are off a bye it won't matter.  Titans are actually 1-3 because they have turned the ball over and can not convert on third downs.  They have faced 3 of the top 10 3rd down defenses, but today they face the Browns defense allowing 38.5 yards per drive (ranked 28th in the league).  Cleveland is also 18th in the league in forced turnovers.  

UTAH +13.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD + UTAH +405 1* ML

UCLA got a huge win on national television to stay undefeated, but they actually looked like everyone thought they would all seasonw inning 62-27 and suddenly they are ranked #8 in the country.  I'm still not buying this team at all.  I was all over Arizona State last week because I thought they had more talent on defense and I was completely wrong this team is 113th in yards / play allowed and 70th in sack %.  UCLA struggled in all 3 of their other games because Memphis, Virginia, and Texas are all in the top 25 in sack %.  Well that plays right into Utah's hands as they are ranked 5th in sacks and 18th in sack %.  Better yet they get to the QB with their front 4 and don't need to blitz as the defensive line has 15 of the 18 sacks.

What I like about Utah is the fact that they lost at home as a double digit favorite while UCLA exploded on national TV so no doubt we have value on this line.  Washington State went into Utah as 13 point favorite and won which I predicted and cashed on at +425.  I'm predicting the same thing here. The match up against Wash State was just a bad bad match up for Utah whose defense is built to stop the run and get a pass rush, but Wash State relies on quick passes so a pass rush is almost nearly impossible.  UCLA is ranked 109th in protecting the QB and it's been their kryptonite all year long. I don't expect that to change in one week after one game.  UTah's Nate Orchad has proven he's a dominant pass rusher and should be giving Brent Hundley plenty of pressure.

Utah gave UCLA all they could handle at home last year, but Tyler Wilson turned the ball over 6 times.  It it wasn't for that this team would have beaten UCLA and Stanford at home.  One year later this team is deeper and better and Tyler Wilson has yet to throw an interception and the team is +5 in turnover margin.  Dres Anderson is a real threat at WR and Utah has balance with Devontae Booker carrying the ball.  Special teams has also been great with Kaelin Clay the fastest player on the field already taking back 4 TD's in punt and kick off returns and should be a huge factor on Saturday night, but Utah's solid front 7 on defense against UCLA's struggling offensive line should be the story here and the reason why we cash our ticket.

Syracuse +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

This is a dangerous game for Louisville and I'm not so sure they can win or even should be favored so I'll take the FG with the home dog in the Carrier Dome where they are extremely dangerous.  This year has been odd for Louisville in a bad way as their defense was supposed to struggle while the offense was great under Bobby Petrino, but it's been opposite and a lot has to do with the offenses they have faced in my opinion.  Louisville is in fact ranked #2 in run defense, but they have not faced a top 60 unit and have faced an FCS school + 128th ranked run offense and 112th.  No doubt those numbers are a bit skewed.  Here comes Syracuse ranked #10 with multiple options in their running game including an elite running QB in Terrel Hunt.  Hunt has struggled to pass, but back at home against an over rated Louisville defense should change.  Syracuses losses have been against some very good teams in Notre Dame and Maryland, who is shocking many people already.  

Syracuse defense also has the edge here in my opinion.  Louisville is very uncertain at QB and they face Syracuse's 17th ranked run defense, but that's not what will get them the win.  Their front 7 is aggressive as any and they'll get to the QB particularly at home.  They forced Notre Dame into 5 turnovers last week on a neutral field and this week their 22nd ranked sack % team gets to face Louisville who is having all sorts of issues in the pocket ranking 118th in pass protection.  To make matters worse for Louisvlle Syracuse has bene dominant in the red zone allowing just 38% TD's.  While Lousivlle has also gotten to the QB it's been against some poor protection units and Syracuse is ranked 3rd in sacks allowed which is extremely impressive when you figure they have a mobile QB. 

UCF +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

I don't know who drove this line up to 3.5 points, but I'm thanking them for it.  Essentially both teams come off a bye week here and should be fresh for their conference game.  Although UCF may have a bit more time to prepare here considering they had Bethune Cookman on 9/20.  Either way I expect a competitive game between two teams who are solid on defense and struggling to find an identity on offense, but I think UCF is still the better team with the better coach.  UCF is ranked higher in our power rankings 77th to 84th, and strength of schedule 32nd vs. 71st.

Houston's wins have come when they can run the ball and despite only doing that roughly 38% of the time.  However, they ran the ball against two poor teams in Grambling and UNLV.  Against BYU and UTSA they ran for a combined -17 yards.  UCF is giving up 2.9 ypc and they have played big opponents like Missouri and Penn State.  They have an excellent group of linebackers led by Terrance Plummer who has been in the media this week responding to Houston's WR's comments.  Plummer is a great leader who plays with emotion and passion and that's the type of team I like to back as an under dog.  Houston's WR Deontay Greenberry is a good player, but he made a dumb comment stating "they weren't that good last year....don't expect a close game this year."  I have no idea why he feels that way when you consider how Houston has played this year against competitive opponents, but UCF HC George O'Leary state "one of my players said that he'd be watching the game on TV."  It just goes to show you where both teams are.  UCF is clearly more mature and has a better coach and the stats back it up.

Houston passes 61.5% of hte time and they are not very good at ranked 114th in pass efficiency.  We broke down the struggles with the running game so for me the game for Houston relies on O'Korn.  He was supposed to make a big step forward in his second year and he hasn't completing just 52% of his passes while throwing 6 interceptions and 6 TD's.  I don't see that changing here against UCF which has a seasoned secondary.  Missouri's Matty Mauk only had 144 yards passing on them on 14/24 and he had the running game working to create balance.  Don't expect O'Korn to have the same advantages here tonight.

Central Florida's defense will keep them in the game while the offense I think will gain it's confidence for the first time this season against a decent opponent.  UCF is ranked nearly dead last in ypc but they have faced some very good defenses including Penn State ranked 3rd v.s the run.  Houston's defense just gave up 5 rushing TD's and 500 yards in their last 2 games combined against BYU and UNLV.  I can see BYU rushing well, but UNLV is ranked 90th in yards per rush and they put up 4.36 average and 170 yards.  UCF has the threat of their QB taking off and I think he will take a few plays out of BYU's play book for some key first downs. 

I would feel comfortable taking UCF on the money line if you have to.. This team could easily be 2-1, but their defense has struggled on third down defense, but playing Houston should help as they have only been able to convert 33% of their third downs and we mentioned all the struggles they have had running and throwing the ball. 

Patriots -3 +115 4* NFL POD

There is tremendous value right now on the Patriots.  They have not looked good on offense and the defense has carried them through their two wins on the season.  Their defense is definitely improved and go up against a Chiefs team that is particularly weak.  The start of the season has definitely changed a lot of the public's perception on the Patriots, but this team will be just fine and in the mix to go to the Super Bowl again by the end of the season.  The offensive line is having growing pains, but I think we see an improvement this week and the offense will surely benefit.  Most of the public is thinking about the fact that the Chiefs went to Miami and dominated 34-15 while the Patriots lost 20-33.  I'm not.. This team always gets up for Monday night covering 9 of their last 13.

I also like the Patriots for the unfortunate fact that the Chiefs are down a lot of starters already early in the season.  They are without 2 opening day starters on offense and have replaced those guys with two rookies and on defense they are without 4 starters from their opening day roster as well.  Bottom line this Patriots offense has nowhere to go but up and with Brady in the mix that's going to happen sooner rather than later.  What better time than on Monday night with many doubting the 2014 Patriots.  Their defense has been elite allowing 272 yards per game which is good for 2nd in the league.  KC's defensive unit is ranked 16th.  New England is #1 from a yards/play perspective while KC is 19th.  On offense KC is ranked 29th in yards per play while the Patriots are ranked 32nd.. Again not going to last with Brady.  I expect the offensive line issues to be a thing of the past and we will see a different game plan here tonight. 

TB Bucs +9 5.5* MAX NFL POD
Am I crazy after the Bucs lost 14-56 in embarrassing fashion against the Atlanta Falcons? Maybe I am, but when you parlay that with the fact that the Steelers dominated the Panthers on the road and I think we get tremendous value. Oddsmakers know they can get away with a high spread here, but in my opinion Tampa is not as bad as they looked (5 turnovers had a lot to do with it), and the Steelers are not as good as they looked.

For one the Steelers have some major issues on defense with the loss of 3 top defenders. They are so thin on defense they brought James Harrisson back. Talk about being desperate. Tampa will likely start MIke Glennon here and that makes me more confident going into this match up when you look at what Pittsburgh has struggled with which is defending the run. The Steelers uncharacteristically are allowing 5+ yards per carry while the Bucs average about that. Plenty of value here on the Bucs who should be able to move the chains with their passing game now that the Steelers are without Ike Taylor and the running game with Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin.

SYRACUSE +10 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Notre Dame is once again getting media attention which is nothing new for this program but ranked number eight in the country is a bit overboard. Nearly 65% of the public is backing Notre Dame here will play on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have experience playing in this stadium in the pinstripe bowl.

I like Syracuse a lot here as they just come off a loss against Maryland which gives us a little bit of value in the line. The loss against Maryland was also misleading and lost by 14 but pay average 7.3 yards per carry and outgained Maryland by 220 yards. This offense is very good and can expose Notre Dame as the Irish have yet to face a truly mobile quarterback. Terrel Hunt fits the part for Syracuse and he has a running back and Gulley who is averaging 7.84 yards per carry.  They are both playing behind in offense of wine that is extremely experienced with five seniors.

Notre Dame has looked great but against who?  We all saw how Michigan looked at home against Utah as favorites. That makes Notre Dame's victory against them a little less impressive. This is also Notre Dame's first game away from home and while their run defense has allowed less than 3 yards per carry to have not faced a running game like this. Notre Dame's offense is also misleading in my opinion because they lack multiple go to guys can easily put together a game plan to keep this offense in check. It's also a bad sign when your head coach is looking to shake up the offense of line during your bye week. Which is exactly what Brian Kelly has been doing and that offense of line will be in for a tough test against Syracuse which is very good at stopping the run.

Middle Tenn +130 4* NCAAF POD

MTSU has plenty of value here coming into the game as the forgotten team in the C-USA battle.  MTSU is capable of moving the ball on this Old Dominion defense that should get pushed around quite a bit tonight and a rough time dealing with QB Austin Grammer and their 3 running backs.  Grammer will run it as well which will give Old Dominion a different offense to prepare for.  Old Dominion is also riding high off a victory on the road against the defending champions in Rice so a let down is very possible here.

The schedules just don't compare as MTSU has faced a solid Memphis team which nearly beat UCLA on the road, Minnesota out of the Big Ten on the road and a very good Western Kentucky team.  Old Dominion is pretty one dimensional in my opinion with the passing game and Taylor Heinickie and every week there is more tape on him to help prepare.  Bottom line against tougher competition MIddle Tenn has played better where it counts which is on 3rd downs and in the red zone.  Old Dominion's defense can't get off the field allowing 50% conversions and 76% TD's in the red zone.  Compare that with Middle Tennessee's 42% defense (38% on the road) and 43% TD rate in the red zone on defense and you have a significant advantage.  This is a big conference game and I'll lean on experience as Old Dominion suffers a let down here after their big victory over Rice. 

Arizona State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This line is about right with Arizona State's QB Taylor Kelly missing the game and a lot of unknowns.  However, I feel confident in Arizona State at home despite their defense not being a top tier unit.  They lost 8 starters from a year ago, but these guys playing at home with a  chip on their shoulder knowing they are the supposed weakest unit will be interesting to see.  They actually get a good match up here in my opinion going against UCLA.  UCLA has not been good on offense despite having an NFL QB in Brett Hundley who is not 100% healthy thanks to the atrocious play of his offensive line and no real game changers on offense.  UCLA is 72nd in yards per play and 115th in sack % allowed. Arizona State always has an aggressive front with athletes and they may be inexperienced, but I'm betting on them coming up big tonight in this marquee match up.  They will see a balanced offense, but neither the passing or the running game of UCLA scares me right now.

Arizona State offense has been superb ranking 3rd in yards per play, but they have not played anyone.  They have had 12 days to prepare and with a new QB in Mike Bercovici and I think they will be able to move the ball.  UCLA has big names that are over hyped this unit is 111th in sack % and they can't pin their ears back against Arizona State's big OL because the running game is a real threat with DJ Foster who is averaging 9.44 yards per carry.  I don't see how UCLA will keep Arizona State from moving the ball and their play up front is simply not good enough to be a road favorite.  They can't get to the QB and they can't protect their QB and they're a road favorite?  I'll take the points enjoy!

Redskins -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

First of all the Giants have played sloppy all year long and if they can't run the ball there does not come to be successful.  Ironically the Washington Redskins have been excellent against the run andto excellent rankings in Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles yet their rank number one in run defense as far as ypc is considered.  After the Redskins are top 10 team for yards per play on offense and yards per play allowed on defense and their basically a pk vs.  the New York Giants. I don't think so I think this line is way off and I think the oddsmakers are setting it because the Giants didn't just beat the Houston Texans at home while the Washington Redskins lost the Houston Texans on the road.

However now that RG three is gone Kirk cousins is taken over this offense and he fits into the system much better. Cousins in the Redskins have averaged 38 points per game since he's taken over and the offense is really clicking. For the Giants have played sloppy all year long I don't really see that changing. Even in their win last week Eli Manning had turned the ball over and it wasn't a smooth gain. I don't see how the Giants will be able to move the ball consistently in this scheme which is what there and I have to do because the Redskins can score and move the ball. The Redskins not only are number one in the league against the run but they are number one in sack percentage and it's a major weakness of the Giants. Protecting the quarterback is crucial when Eli Manning is taking snaps and if they can't do that this scheme should be a blowout.

Giants -1 5.5* NFL POD

The stock couldn't be anymore on these New York Giants but it still Eli Manning versus Ryan Fitzpatrick.Houston is to it on the Giants are owing to but the Houston Texans had the ball last week for nearly 70% again but they were still outgained by the Oakland Raiders. I said the Oakland Raiders.Houston Texans were also looking by the Redskins on the season Ryan Fitzpatrick is only averaging 170 yards passing per game while the running game is carrying this team. It's a bad matchup for Houston because of the rushing game will have its hands full with the Giants who are holding opponents in check, ranked sixth in yards per carry run defense. Go to sleep.

The Giants defense has been good when you think about the position the offenses put them in. Eli Manning has not had a lot of help from the running game he has not had a lot of help from his receivers dropping passes. However in this game he will face Houston who is allowing 5.8 yards per carry which is worse in the league. Go to sleepHouston does have a difficult scheduling spot having to travel to Oakland then back to Houston and now to New York. I have a lot of respect for Tom Coughlin as a coach and Gill have this team ready. The teams played extremely sloppy to start the season and again everybody is against them and usually when everybody is against one team that's when they usually shine especially when you are backed by a solid head coach.

Iowa +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa +230 1* bonus
Iowa's 2-1 on the season but 0-3 against the spread there's got to be value in this line for sure especially since Pittsburgh beat Boston College on the road and Boston College just beat USC at home.  Also the Big Ten is getting no love from the oddsmakers after the first few weeks of the season and they probably shouldn't care either but this lines of three points in my favor in Pittsburgh is still among one of the youngest teams in the country.  They have 81 underclassmen 53 freshmen and 28 sophomores which is the highest in the country they've started 3-0 but that's about to change on Saturday.

I would just copied at home to Iowa State as a double-digit favorite and they really haven't looked at Creek this year but I'll still take my chances with a touchdown to play with it again it's going to be very competitive. Both teams will play conservative style type a game trying to control Time possession which means for a close game and my.

Pittsburgh runs a very one dimensional offense with 71% of their players being running place right fit in the country. Running back James Connor it looks to be the real deal again one of the nations leading rushers as a sophomore. However no balance no threat of the passing game and that's going to get you be at some point in the season. The matchup against Iowa defense is intriguing considering Iowa is only allowing 2.8 yards per carry Ray 21st in the country. Pittsburgh Pirates had the liberty of going against some bad Russian defenses to start the season.  Iowa's always known for their front seven top gritty players and they have for returning starters from last year on the front for including three seniors and one junior.

For Iowa's offense they are far more capable of what they've shown this year. Jake Rudock has played well 68% of his passes have been completed he's from four touchdowns and one interception. Pit secondary has not been tested to start the season and I think it will be on Saturday at least to the point where we will cover the spread.  It also features to senior running backs they can get the tough yards and I think they just overall have more balance on offense in Pittsburgh does and when you look at both teams I think both defenses are on the same level I will always go with the team with more balance.  Iowas defense has only allowed one red zone touchdown all you all year Pittsburgh has been good in the red zone but again who if they faced.

Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 ATS following a SU loss with Kirk Ferentz at the helm at head coach while Pitt is 1-5 ATS in their last 6. 

Connecticut +3 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
South Florida is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games while Connecticut is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record which is good for a 29-7-2 ATS angle.  Both teams have played 3 straight games at home with their anemic offenses and have gone 1-2 only beating an FCS opponent.  However, Uconn has looked better against stronger competition.

Uconn faced Boise #38 power rating, BYU #24 good for 35th ranked SOS ranking while USF comes in at 82nd facing Maryland #74 and NC State #57.  Uconn will have the best unit on the field on Saturday and that will be their defense.  They just got done shutting down Boise and holding them to 292 yards.  South Florida has a miserable passing offense and Uconn has the ability to shut down a running game.  They held Boise over 150 yards under their season average.  Uconn also likes to pass the ball 60% of the time and that's where South Florida's weakness is ranked 82nd, in yards/attempt, 84th in QB rating, but they also have issues stopping the run ranked 81st.

From a yards perspective Uconn was worse than South Florida but those numbers are skewed a bit.  When we look at both offenses in their 2 games vs. FBS opponents Uconn was actually able to move the ball.  They had 23 first downs vs. BYU who is ranked 24th in defense for yards/play and had 355 yards.  Against Boise they had only 290 but had 18 first downs which was more than Boise State and Boise is ranked 54th on defense for yards/play.  South Florida on the other hand was miserable in their two games.  Against NC State ranked 65th in yds/play defense they had just 8 first downs and 159 yards.  Against Maryland ranked 53rd they had 257 yards and 16 first downs.  I'm going with the better defense and the offense that has shown more life and I'm getting points.  I don't care if this game is on the road Uconn is due for a win against South Florida and I think tonight is the night.

Kansas State +9.5 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD

13 straight covers for Auburn and now they go on the road on a Thursday night early in the season for a very tough challenge.  I can't help but think this line is high from 13 straight covers and the media hype that Auburn gets which is clearly earned.  However, I'm still a bit skeptical about this year's Auburn Tigers and we have not learned anything after their first two games other than we know this team can run the ball.  However, they just ran the ball at home against two below average defenses in Arkansas and San Jose State. The challenge on Thursday night is going on the road to face Bill Snyder's under rated defense.  Snyder has had success in these type of games especially with his defensive scheme.

Snyder will have his defense playing man on the outside and blitzing forcing everything to funnel through the middle of the field.  I'm not saying Auburn won't be effective, because I think they will move the ball fine, but I think Kansas State will get some red zone stops for sure.  Auburn will be tested here a bit and we may finally see the growing pains of losing their stud LT Greg Robinson in the off season and now LG Alex Kozan which are both huge loses.  It also helps Snyder and the Wildcats that Auburn's QB Nick Marshall has yet to show he's improved from last year in the passing game.  This Auburn team is still one dimensional against a sound defense until further notice in my opinion.  Marshall may prove me wrong, but he's also going to prove Bill Snyder wrong if he takes over this game with his arm for all 4 quarters.  I just don't see that happening here.  The Wildcats are also more prepared for this type of offense than most defenses especially compared against Auburn's first two opponents.  For one they face a similar option offense in practice that's geared towards the run and have done so for years.  Secondly, tempo is something Auburn believes in and uses, but in the Big 12 every team seems to run that tempo offense and Kansas State has had plenty of success against it over the years with Snyder at the helm.

One of the biggest reasons I like Kansas State here as a top play is their offense and the Auburn defense.  Auburn has the skill on the front 4 to get after a QB, but the way Kansas State's offense is run I think they are going to have issues containing Jake Waters.  This is a unique offense that will use just about every formation.  Kansas State may run the ball the majority of the time, but they can also pass and they feature a WR that Auburn won't be able to cover in Tyler Locket.  Kansas State is a better team than Arkansas who gave Auburn more than they could handle on offense averaging over 5 yards per carry in Auburn's home building.  Expect nearly 5 ypc tonight from Kansas State with 3rd down conversions, unlike Arkansas who only converted 2-11 on third down.

Eagles +3 4.4* NFL POD
I will go with the Eagles tonight, because I think they are the better team.  As long as the zebras do not impact this game for the home team I think the Eagles will win this game.  It is no secret that their is a lot of love out there for Andrew Luck and that he's an elite QB in this league.  However, he's backed by a defense that is just very bad especially with out Robert Mathis running around and he does not have a supporting running game.  Trent Richardson still has not proven that he can play at this level, but the Colts keep throwing him out there since they made a huge investment.  Eagles defense should get a few stops due to the fact that they'll know what's coming in this one dimensional offense.

For the Eagles their offense should be able to move the ball well and the public image is already distorted from their slow start against one of the worst teams in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars.  However, the Eagles outscored the Jaguars 34-0 down the stretch and they feature an elite offense with the best running back in the league along with weapons all over the field for Nick Foles.  If the Eagles don't win or cover this game it will be because of the referees.

Cowboys +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
The public is so far off this team right now and it's giving us tremendous value.  Last Sunday the 49ers went into Dallas and went u 21-0 and most people changed the channel as it was the Cowboys defense looking awful again and Tony Romo making unecessary mistakes.  However, very quietly the Cowboys shut the 49ers offense out in the second half and for the game the Cowboys had more yards and first downs.  This defense is clearly improving and the team showed resilience in a tough spot against a top 3 team on opening week.  I think Romo is a great leader and I think he will play well this week now that he was able to shake some of the cobwebs loose.

For the Titans they went into a highly touted KC building and came out with a dominating win 26-10.  The stock could not be higher for the Titans after that victory.  The new coach, Jake Locker back and all of a sudden the Titans are headed to the playoffs... Not so fast.. I'm not high on that KC team I really think they have no offense and when you can not convert third downs you are going to have an advantage over your opponent's defense.  KC's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes.  I expect more from Dallas who has a balance attack, elite receiver, top 10 QB, and an under rated running back that when healthy is a top 5 or 10 tailback int his league.  Expect the Titans to come back down to earth this week as the Cowboys shock them in a possible outright victory.

Arkansas +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Arkansas versus Texas Tech Ohio anticipated game for my opinion because we get to see what the big 12 is all about going up against Annecy Seapoint. Arkansas has a bit of a chip on the shoulder they've lost headed straight to FBS opponents and again they're coming off essentially what is a bye. Dave smacked up nickel State 73 to 7 last week and I guarantee you the coaching staff was looking toward The game against Texas Tech.

The biggest reason why I like Arkansas is the fact that Texas Tech is not going to be able to stay on the field they're knocking to be able to stop in Arkansas's power running game which leads the nation with over 10 yards per carry.  Texas Tech just got done at Wiley Texas El Paso to rush for 277 yards while they held the ball for 39 minutes they also gave up 170 yards to central Arkansas this is a bit of a rebuilding year for Texas Tech and I just don't expect them to win this game at home.

Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams are becoming quite the duo while quarterback bring an Allen offers a nice balance. I think there blowout loss against Auburn was a bit deceiving watching that game I thought Arkansas move the ball well and bring it out has 178 QB rating on the year.  Arkansas's defense is a big? However they get some players back in the secondary for depth which is a big big deal this week against Texas Tech.  Texas Tech she really likes the sling the ball around however there are facing an aggressive defense that features some very good players in the front line including all SEC defense eventually flowers.  Prep Yuma hired some highly touted defensive coaches and I think this is a game where you're going to see a payoff. They play aggressively which should result in a forced turn over to tilt the game in the favor of Arkansas in the end.

Ravens -2.5 4.4* NFL POD
The media has blown the story up about Ray Rice and rightfully so, but that has chased a good portion of the public bettors over to the side of Pittsburgh and I"ll stay with the home team who has a lot to prove tonight and a win could certainly avoid some questinos about Ray Rice.  The Ravens have been preparing for life without Rice for some time and the Ravens have capable back ups.  The Ravens did not play bad last year and actually out played the Bengals in certain circumstances.  For instance they moved the ball well 26 first downs to the Bengals 16 and overall they played better in a tougher match up on the road against the Bengals.

Steelers blew a 27-3 halftime lead against the Browns and sneaked in a win with a field goal late.  The Steelers gave up 183 yards on the ground and nearly 400 overall.  They were outscored 24-3 in the second half which to me just screams that they are just not in shape yet.  With a short week this early in the season I think Pittsburgh is in big trouble.  I don't think it will help their cause as the Ravens will just have the upper hand at home on the short week early in the season.

LA Tech +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is one of the more important games for LA Tech early in the season and they have a lot of revenge going into this game after losing at home 28-13 last year.  Tech is a completely different team thus far they feature Iowa transfer QB Cody Sokol who does not make mistakes and Manny Diaz at defensive coordintor who has implemented his aggressive style of play and so far it's looking good.  This team held Oklahoma to less than 200 yards rushing and held them to 5-13 on third down which was quite the achievement and then last week on the road as a double digit dog against an in state rival with 8 returning starters including a dynamic senior QB they held to 7 points through 3 quarters before finishing the victory off at 48-20 covering the spread by 44 points.  In last year's game they went up 10-0 on the Mean Green, but it was turnovers that cost them the game as they were -2 in the game, but North Texas no longer has their senior QB and are completely one dimensional.

North Texas has thrown the ball with their starting QB only 23 times in two games and he has 0 TD and 2 interceptions.  The Mean Green do have a fantastic running tandem, but if LA Tech can hold up against the likes of Oklahoma on the road defending the run I'm thinking they can here.  I just think this LA Tech team is better than last year while North Texas blew out SMU last week it was largely due to the fact that they forced 5 turnovers.  Tech has been taking care of the ball so far this season and if they do that tonight it won't take much offense to outscore North Texas.

Giants +4.5 4.4* NFL POD
The Giants confidence level from the public probably has never been lower and as a serious bettor this is a good thing.  We can easily find value on this team and it starts tonight when they play in a Monday night media hyped game against the Detroit Lions who more and more people love this team and their offense due to their big time fantasy football players.  However, I'm looking at this game from a strict value perspective and the Giants have it as they have always been a very good road team under Tom Coughlin.  Coaching is a huge advantage here for the Giants who by far have the better staff when you look at the Lions their hiring of Jim Caldwell makes me a bit curious.

Caldwell is a good offensive coach or maybe he just got lucky along the way when he was the Colts assistant and their QB coach under Peyton Manning.  I say under Manning, because I do feel it's the other way around when you get lucky with a player like Manning and Caldwell has definitely cashed that ticket more than once now in his second stint as a head coach.  However, he lacks any sort of discipline which is what I think this Lions team is missing.  I really think as bad as the Giants looked in the pre-season they will look 10x better in week 1.  Giants never like to tip their hat too much in pre-season and I truly think Eli Manning is capable of picking up a new offense despite what it looked like in the pre-season.  I expect the Giants to control this game and I really like their chances of pulling off the upset against the over rated Lions.

    Falcons +3 5.5* NFL POD;  The Saints are a very popular team, because of their fantasy value and they have played well in Atlanta, but I full expect Atlanta to rebound as they have done some nice things in the off season. The biggest addition they get to start 2014 is the return of a healthy WR duo in White and Jones. Matt Ryan still had a great year last year now he gets those two guys back and then he adds the best tackle from the NFL draft in Jake Matthews and arguably the best half back to back up Stephen Jackson in Devonta Freeman. Falcons have a lot to prove this year and I think it will start this Sunday by defending their home turf and defeating a quality team in the New Orleans Saints.

Vanderbilt +20 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
This game is one of my value plays of the week Ole Miss couldn't have looked better in their win against Boise State winning 35 to 13 while Vanderbilt could not avoid any worse playing Temple in their 37 to 7 loss. Cedarville committed seven turnovers and got smacked up and down the field against temple I just don't see them turning the ball over seven times and if they did not lose that came last week to spread would be completely different.  This is still a pretty big game for Vanderbilt as both of these teams recruit players in the state of Tennessee so expect me interval to really come out to try to win this actually they have covered 10 of their last 13 meetings against Ole Miss.

For Mississippi they have been getting a lot of media hype Bo Wallace in the offense as well as the defense but when you look at the game last week and I watch him throw three interceptions. Ole Miss actually only lead Boise State 7 to 6 at the end of the third-quarter it and at that time the game could've one anyway until Ole Miss exploded for 28 points in the fourth making the game look more like a blowout than it really was. 

I really like what Vanderbilt did when they lost James Franklin to Penn State they hired Derrick Mason the defense of Cordinator from Stanford this team did not play dad last week they health temple to two for 17 on third down Stanford had rain to 82nd in the Justin defense the three years prior to Mason riding and then on an average 9 to 3 years after.  Part of why I like this play is Bo Wallace on the road last year he could not play well at home he had 160 quarterback rating but on the road he had it only 112 quarterback rating throwing five touchdowns 27 interceptions.  The interval is still an SEC defense and they are loaded with three star recruits. I don't often's Vanderbilt should be able to move the ball and score just enough to cover this game comfortably considering they have for starters on the offense of line returning.  There are questions that quarterback but I still think that this game is going to be about running the ball and taking care of the ball specially after turning the ball over seven times last week this will ultimately shorten the game and allow Vanderbilt to cover this large spread.

Arizona -7 -104 4.5* POD
As much as I'd love to back San Antonio for another win here tonight their win on the road against an in state rival (Houston) 27-7 last week is enough to make me change my mind.  Not only is UTSA going to be a bit hung over, but they did not dominate Houston like the score states.  Their new QB only managed 263 yards last week and they converted just 29% of their third downs while a +4 turnover margin helped big time.  Arizona was a 25.5 point favorite at home last year and won 38-13 and I just don't see UTSA having that big of a home field advantage.  I also think the oddsmaker's have adjusted this line way too much based on one week and Arizona looked even better than Houston did if you ask me.

Arizona is breaking in a new QB and a new RB, but this offense should be even better with the talent they have at WR.  The fact that they have 4 starters and 104 starts combined along the starting offensive line is the key.  Rich Rodriguez can work with that and his offense broke the school record agaisnt UNLV last week.  I just don't see UTSA being able to stay with Arizona tonight even though I'd love to see it happen it won't.  UTSA's new QB is still unproven and I don't know a lot about him, but I wonder how many times he's seen a 3-3-5 defense with this kind of speed?

Utah State +5 4.4* NCAAF POD
A lot of question marks in this game, but I still feel really good about the value I'm getting with Utah State due to the strengths and weaknesses of each team.  First of all Utah State easily has the edge at QB in Chuckie Keeton who returns from his injury last year.  Justin Worley just does not impress me 117 QB rating last year behind one of the best offensive lines.  In fact both QB's have to play behind inexperienced offensive lines that are completely rebuilt and who would you take as a more likely player to be able to play well?  Keeton is a mobile QB that can buy time for his receivers to get open.  Even though Tennessee has a very good secondary they can't cover guys forever and a very green defensive front for Tennessee is going to allow Utah State to score enough to be in good shape to win this game in my opinion.  Utah State should also be able to get a running game going with Keeton and company since Tennessee was 114th vs. the run last year in ypc allowed and they lost their top 5 tacklers. 

Utah State's defense was top 10 the last two years.  I think they will be very good again especially in the front 7 where they return 3 very good linebackers and 2 of their 4 on the front line.  This defense was #2 in run defense and they return 5 of 7 in the front 7.  The depth is an issue, but it was last year as well and they played well.  The defense really has issues in the secondary, but I don't think Tennessee has the QB to take advantage of those issues.  TN wideouts are extremely talented but Worley could not get the job done behind an offensive line that had 184 career starts a year ago and I don't see it possible for him to play well behind an offensive line that will have 6 career starts going into game #1.

Virginia +21 5.5* NCAAF POD
I had Virginia in the first game of the year as a home dog last year playing a team traveling from the West Coast and it was in fact Virginia's most impressive win.  Virginia hosts UCLA who comes all the way from LA to play a game at noon.  It's an interesting match up with the hype of UCLA with many saying they have a shot at being 1 of the 4 teams in the playoff at the end of the year.  Brett Hundley is also getting hype as a Heisman candidate but I'm not buying into this.

Hundley is known for making mistakes especially on the road.  He takes way too many sacks and this Virginia defense returns 10 guys on a very aggressive unit that can force you into mistakes.  All of their linebackers return including their bakc ups and the defense is as talented as any with more blue chip recruits and their secondary is just loaded with depth and 4* recruits.  Hundley was sacked 35 times last year and the fact that he has to replace 3 offensive line starter and he also lost his top target in Shaq Evans is going to create a drop down in the early going.

I have not forgotten about UCLA's defense it is very strong and has a lot of talent in the front, but on the road they were not dominant in stopping the run and Virginia does have 4 and 5 * recruits at RB behind an experienced and big offensive line.  UCLA's defense did lose their best pass rushers in Anthony Barr and Cassius Mash along with Kenan Graham.  The depth of the front 7 is a concern and if Virginia can stick to the run they should have a chance at winning this game by forcing turnovers and smart clock management.
    

UTSA +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This was a blow out last year as Texas San Antonio lost to Houston 28-59, but when you look at HOuston's season it is hard to see them doing what they did being +25 in TO margin.  A lot of luck factored in when you see that they recovered 63% of their fumbles and picked of 50% of their pass break ups (25% average), and only threw 10 intereceptions on 76 pass break ups again is very lucky.  Yeah they beat up on UTSA, but when you look at the stat line both teams had 27 first downs, and UTSA actually had 493 yards to Houston's 491.  It was the 4 turnovers that killed them and returning 38 senior this year has got to be worth something.

I'm not surprised that UTSA closed the season with 5 wins last year.  They are in a sweet spot in San Antonio for recuriting and I think the best is yet to come.  They only lost 2 players on offense and they return their entire offensive line and their back ups which I may remind you all 5 starters are seniors and they were ranked 43rd in adjusted line yards and 15th in adjusted sack rate.  Expect this team to be able to score some points and keep this within the total.

Texas A&M +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

South Carolina and Texas A&M get the SEC network started and both will be without two of the biggest names in college football as Manziel and Clowney are now in the NFL.  However, what remains are two top coaches in Kevin Sumlin and Steve Spurrier and two top 10 recruiting classes.  South Carolina returns more starters, but I don't believe it's enough to warrant being double digit favorites to start the year.

First of all Kevin Sumlin is a very very good offensive coach and A&M is 10-2 on the road with him at the helm.  He also has blue chip guys at all of the skill positions including two at QB and two at RB.  The offensive line is always a strength with this unit as they return 4 of their 5 starters after losing Jake Mathews to the NFL draft.  This unit has the potential to be better.  As of today I think Texas A&M's offense is better than South Carolina's who are dealing with the loss of two of their best offensive players in Ellington and Shaw.  The offense has to completely change for them with Dylan Thompson who is a completely different QB.  I think Thompson is capable, but again this offense will be built to run the football which should benefit us in covering the double digit spread by slowing the game down.

This spread is where it's at due to the loss of starters and how bad the defense looked last year for A&M, but their is a silver lining.  A&M's defense picked it up last part of the year and they won't be dealing with the injury crisis they were in 2013.  I don't think this unit is far from being a top 50 defense and I think they'll be able to handle a more traditional one dimensional attack to open the season.  Spurrier and the Gamecocks were 37th in rushing play % and the same the year before.  With the strength of the offensive line I see no reason why they won't try to run the ball 60% of the time to ensure victory.

So A&M gets the nod on offense, South Carolina gets the edge on defense, and I think A&M gets the nod on special teams.  South Carolina has a senior punter in Hall but he averaged just 37.8 yards per punt and the South Carolina lacks any type of a return game and that's nothing new the last five years they have ranked 94th, 75th, 112th, 86th, and 114th in the nation.  That will not benefit you early in the season against a good coach and a talented team with potential.  A&M's kicker averaged 47.4 yards and their place kicker often forced touchbacks.  I think A&M will be able to benefit from field advantage