UTAH +14.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
USC has shown already on defense this year that they can get beat on the ground (allowing 5.5ypc against Stanford) or through the air (Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib 30-46 322 yards 2 TD's), and now they go on the road to Utah who is an angry team finally getting healthy.

I think the oddsmakers helped us in this one after Utah got beat badly at Arizona State 37-7, a game in which we were on Utah. Now everyone is loving USC going on the road but Utah has gotten much healthier in the secondary including getting back their S Brian Blechen off suspension. I think this will be a tight game like last year and playing at Utah is never an easy game for anyone.

USC has had protection issues as they are ranked 99th in sack % allowed while the Utes can get in the backfield and are 20th in sack % led by NT Star Lotulelei who will be trying to impress some NFL scouts. Look for him to play a big factor here tonight. That will make it tough for USC on third downs once again where they have had major issues just converting 31% on the season ranked 99th. Utah coincidentally is 22nd allowing just 32% conversions.

Offensively Utah is coming off a bye in which allowed them to get the offensive scheme in check and I think they'll come out and play a lot better. They get a healthy John White back finally and QB Hays has had some time to scheme up for USC who has been unable to get to the QB ranked 80th in sack % and are even worse on the road with a 2.5 sack %. People forget this is a rebuilt defensive line and the loss of Devon Keonnard via injury early was a devastating blow. I don't think they can win this game by 14 points. Kyle Whittingham is very good as Utah's head coach off byes 6-1 in his career and the Utes are 22-2-1 all time off a bye with their next game being at home. Take the Utes in a big game they need to redeem themselves.

Cowboys -2.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NFL POD
This game is a match up between two teams that have struggled offensively and really are very similar. Both have been playing well on defense and have had issues protecting their own QB and avoiding mistakes. However, it's going to come down to which offensive line can protect their QB better and playing at home offers a major advantage. When a team is on the road we see the difference constantly and in this game the offensive line is going to play the biggest factor and I think being home will greatly benefit Tony Romo who in my opinion is better at avoiding the pass rush any how.

Also, Cutler this year has the worst sack % 10.58% and that's even worse on the road 20.59% of his drop backs while Romo is at 6.09% and Dallas was actually really good at avoiding sacks at home a year ago ranked 5th. Look out for DeMarcus Ware to feast on LT JMarcus Webb of the Bears and Cutler should be running for his life most of the night as he just does not have the pocket presence that Romo has. Chicago would have to run the ball and do it well to have a chance, but I don't see them having that ability on the road.

I strongly believe this line is off a bit and in reality should be -4 or 4.5. Dallas struggled at home against Tampa, but they should have lost that game and the fact that they won it despite 3 turnovers and 13 penalties has to tell you something about the overall talent of this team. Chicago meanwhile has benefited largely to being home for two games and is a different team on the road. The Bears have been the #1 team in third down defense this year, but the Cowboys are right behind them only allowing 29.27% conversions and Dallas has had greater success converting them actually converting 10% more 3rd downs than Chicago That should play a key factor in a tight game. Overall I like the additions to the Cowboys secondary and if you haven't seen it in action yet stay tuned for tonight's game because it's a lot better than it was a year ago.

Dolphins +4.5 4.4*
As good as the Cardinals have been on defense they are still getting too much respect. They actually are negative yards in every game and that has to say something. Meanwhile the Dolphins are much better than their record indicates. They are 3rd in the league in run defense allowing 66 yards per game. Arizona has struggled punching the ball in at the goal line with the run and their offensive line has struggled and should have their hands full with the Dolphins front 4 including Cameron Wake who should spend plenty of time in the backfield today.

I also don't trust Arizona's starting running back Ryan Williams. He's fumble prone since college and has had issues this year. Look for the turnover battle to play a huge factor in this game. Meanwhile the Dolphins offense has been pretty decent considering they start a rookie QB. Ryan Tannehill is athletic and he's running the same offense he did in college so in a sense he's much further ahead than most rookie QB's. He's also backed by a good rushing team. Both teams like to run the ball more than pass as they are both inside the top 10 in rush %, but the Dolphins are far better at running the ball and stopping the run. Arizona is 30th with just 2.8 ypc, and their defense is 12th allowing 3.9 ypc and should have their hands full with the Dolphins backs today.

Panthers +7.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD
The Panthers really struggled big time in their last game on Thursday night against the Giants, but they get an extra couple of games to prepare for a huge divisional game against the Falcons who are on fire. I actually think this game will be close. Remember last year the Panthers were tied in the 14th quarter at 17 with the Falcons and their are a lot of things that align for the Panthers to give the Falcons a little scare here today.

For on the Falcons defense is getting too much respect. For one they are 24th allowing 128.7 ypg on the ground and 31st allowing 5.0 yards per carry and it seems obvious that Carolina curtails their offensive scheme to the weakness of the defense they are facing rather than their strength (which is running the ball). That's why I like Carolina today because they will be doing what they do best. It helps big time that they will be getting their Tackle back in Bell and Johnathan Stewart giving them a third weapon for attacking the Falcons weakness. Carolina has only one game where they have rushed it over 20 times ironically that was their only win against New Orleans. Look for them to get back to that against the Falcons and that should allow them to keep it out of Matt Ryan's hands.

Lastly The Falcons are 31st in allowing opponents to convert on third down allowing 51.28 % conversions. Carolina isn't much better at 46%, but once again this is too many points for a divisional game especially when the Falcons still have a lot of question marks as they are also 30th in red zone TD%. When Cam Newton gets down there he should be able to score TD's. At the end of the day I think the Falcons may be getting a little cocky and the Panthers just got humbled which I think is what needed to happen to Newton. I expect them to bounce back especially with the extra preparation.

Michigan State -2.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
It's a huge match up between the two best teams in the Big Ten and I love Michigan State to defeat the Buckeyes for the second year in a row. For one there are a lot of question marks surrounding Ohio State. For one this is their firsst road game of the year and as good as their defense has looked at times their secondary has been a disaster at times and they haven't faced any capable offenses with total offensive ranks of opponents ranked - 75, 78, 71, and 99th. Michigan State is by no means an elite offense ranked 62nd, but in the end it will be the better defense winning this game.

I"m still not even sold on the Buckeyes rush defense which is ranked 35th allowing 121.8 yards per game. Keep in mind this is a team that on the road last year allowed 187.5 yards per game. They have some serious questions up front and have not lived up to the hype and have gotten away because the secondary has come up with 7 interceptions. I think Michigan State QB has already played in two big games against Notre Dame and Boise State that has allowed him to have more sense of confidence as we look towards this big game. IT also doesn't hurt that Michigan State is home. Michigan State is also 9th against the run and has the best trio of linebackers in the country (arguably). Ohio State has faced run defenses ranked 96th, 104th, 120th, and 65th. Michigan State is also 3rd in completion % defense so Braxton Miller is going to have a hard time getting this offense going and at some points he's going to force a few bad plays leading to interceptions. It'll be close throughout but Le'Veon Bell should take this game over. This game reminds me of when Ohio State lost on the road to Nebraska last year where Nebraska was able to control the game with the run and play excellent defense. In that game Ohio State was actually able to run to 5.9 ypc and that's just not going to happen on the road against this Michigan State front 7.

Washington +7 -120 4* play

Seahawks +3.5 4.4* NFL POD
We all know about the 12th man and the degree of difficulty of playing in Seattle. I wanted to take the Seahawks a week ago hosting the Cowboys and we saw first hand how dominating the Seahawks can be especially on the defense side of the ball where they will are the #1 run defense in terms of yards allowed and have only been allowing 2.6 yards per carry. Aaron Rodgers needs a balanced attack on the road or he will struggle as we have seen at times this year. Seattle has some talented secondary players and a strong front 7 that will create pressure. Right now the Packers can no protect Rodgers as they are 28th in sack % as Rodgers is getting sacked 9.41 % of his drop backs. That's extremely high considering how great he is in the pocket. That stat does not complete the full picture of how bad the offensive line has been.

Seattle on the other hand is being under rated here again. They have a very very good run game ranked 6th and should have their way with a Packers defense that's ranked 31st allowing 5.1 ypc and 140 yards per game thus far this year. I expect Seattle to run it and for Rusell Wilson complete an efficient game. Suddenly their 16-20 loss looks a lot better at Arizona after how dominating the Cardinals have looked thus far. Overall they've played two top 5 defenses and now they are about to face a team whose defense is not top 10. Packers have the extra rest here but they were 0-2 ATS last year in their road games with extra rest following a Thursday game the week before.

[b]Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
Pittsburgh is not the same old team, yes they are old, but they are not elite any more. Oakland has been a disapointment thus far but I like their chances against a Steeler defense that is banged up. The Jets moved the ball well on this unit in their first 2 drives then they struggled the rest of the game, but I think Oakland being at home will have more success behind the right arm of Carson Palmer who is playing extremely well considering he doesn't have a tight end or elite receivers. However, Oakland at home is going to be a tough team to beat and unlike their first game Palmer will have Moore in there which will open up this offense quite a bit.

The Steelers offense is in flux as well. They can't protect Big Ben and they can't run the ball just 2.6 ypc this year. Big Ben has been sacked 8 times and it could be more. The problem is bringing him down and the Raiders actually have a defensive line that's big enough to do it. They have more strength than speed and that will help them in this one. on the other side Palmer was not sacked last week against the Dolphins and that should allow him to be in good situations on third down if he continues that which he should. It will help that the Steelers are 22nd in third down defense. I expect a big game for Oakland iand it's offense to make a nice come back here.

Utah +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5.5*
Utah gets a huge boost with the return of John White this week and they are 8-0 when he rushes over 100 yards. After rushing for 85 last year he should be on his away against Arizona State as Utah seeks revenge after losing 35-14 at home a year ago to the Sun Devils. Last year was a unique situation because it was the first game QB John Hays was thrown into the fire at QB after Wynn got hurt. This year it is Hays again because of a career ending injury to Wynn and he's much more prepared. Utah led last year 14-13 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter it was Hays 3 interceptions that sparked Arizonas State's victory as Utah was -5 in turnover margin and Brock Osweiler was able to keep a balanced offense.

Well Osweiler is off in the NFL playing for the Broncos and Arizona State has a new coach and he's not a very good one in my opinion in Todd Graham who will run an uptempo offense and use two QB's. That's going to be a major issue going into this game because Utah's defense is the real deal led by Star Lotulelei, the defensive line should get push and pressure with just a 4 man blitz. That will create issues for sophomore QB Todd Kelly and I think the turnover advantage will be flipped in Utah's advantage. Make no mistakes about it Utah will make Arizona work for their first downs and points as they are 14th in 3rd down conversion defense while Arizona State is 79th and their offense despite putting up some points has only converted 26% of their opportunities.

In ugly games like this it comes down to who can play better special teams and create turnovers and I give that edge to Utah who is led by two senior kickers including punter Tom Hacket who is fresh off his PAC 12 special teams player of the week award. As far as turnovers go, I think they are in the rearview mirror for Hays he completed 67% of his passes last week and has 2 TD's 0 interceptions on the year. Add in that Arizona State is sacked 8.2% of their drop backs and I think we have a recipe for some opportunistic plays from the Utes defense.

BYU +7 4.4* NCAAF POD
A short week off after a tough loss to Utah can only be a good thing for this veteran team. Playing a team like Boise State on national television will be a quick opportunity to find redemption and this is not the same Boise State team of previous years.

NYG/CAR U50 4.4* NFL POD
I like the under in tonight's game as both teams should take a run first approach. Starting with the Giants they are really banged up without Hixon or Nicks and without David Diehl. Even without Ahmad Bradshaw we should see a heavy dose of Brown/Wilson in the running game because Eli is smart enough to know without Hixon and Nicks and with Carolina likely double teaming Cruz that he will have to get the running game going against a vulnerable run defense.

Unfortunately for the Giants they haven't been good enough to run the ball and I think Carolina will shut it down creating a low scoring game as they have the linebackers to do it and the Giants lack the skill up front to block even though Carolina is allowing nearly 150 yards on the ground this year. On the flip side you would assume Cam Newton and Carolina would like to open it up offensively and they did in week 1 with poor results. Look for more ground in pound from Cam and the rest of the bunch as he likely does not want to take three step drops and get hit by the ferocious pass rush of the Giants. The best chance for the Panters is to get their running option attack working. Both teams have struggled to convert on third downs while the defenses have been pretty good on third downs. The Giants and the Panthers are only converting 36% of their third downs which tends to lead towards unders in this situation.

More than anything both teams are banged up a bit and are playing on extremely short weeks early in the season. The offenses do not have much time to put in any crazy game plans so expect a vanilla approach and for both defenses to be well prepared.

Kent St +4 4.4* POD
to me the oddsmakers are getting away with what the public will misinterpret each team

Broncos +3.5 -115 (5* NFL POD)
I love the Broncos here and suggest buying a half point if it's affordable otherwise I see the Broncos winning this game themselves. First off it's pretty obvious the way this game should go and it will come down to who can stop the opposing QB. It's going to be like a chess match, but after Manning put up 31 points on a very good Steelers defense I can't help but back him in this game.

First of all the loss of Brent Grimes has a huge impact in a game like this for the Falcons whose nickel scheme is completely screwed up. Look for Manning to take advantage on what was a strength for the Falcons before the season. Secondly Denver should be able to get to Matt Ryan. It's not like offensive line is spectacular and the Broncos have one of the best pass rushes with Von Miller and now they are getting pressure from the tackle position in rookie Derek Wolfe who had 1 of the Broncos 5 sacks on Big Ben a week ago. Ryan will take sacks while Manning will not tonight. I also trust a Jack Del Rio led defense over Mike Nolan any day. For one Mike Nolan is 1-7 in his career as a head coach or defensive coordinator vs. Peyton Manning and teams these days are going up against the defenders just as much as the coordinators. Not only on game day but in the week of preparation leading up to it all.

Manning is one of the best at preparing and when I ask myself who has the better no huddle offense? and Who is the better team at getting or pressuring the QB the answer is the Broncos for both. That's enough incentive to make this a heavy play on the Broncos. Also don't forget the Falcons have struggled to win the big game and for as well as they have played at home they get too much credit from oddsmakers as they are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Don't fall into the trap here tonight Matt Ryan will be pressured and Manning will stay clean and come up with a flawless effort against a Falcons defense that does not do much for me.

[b]Rams +3.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
I love the Rams with a healthy Sam Bradford this is a different team. We seem to be getting tons of value in this spot with all the public loving RG III after his performance and win in New Orleans. Don't forget how much of a mess that New Orleans team was and if you take out the big plays the Redskins were not that great as the Saints even held them in check on third downs. The Rams have one of the better pass defenses because they get to the QB and I think that should result in some more turnovers as they forced Mathew Stafford into a few of them a week ago. Despite the lack of offense in week 1 look for Bradford and co to open it up a little more now that they are back at home.. Bradford did complete 68% of his passes in week 1 and Washington was 17th in 3rd down defense on the road. I think the Rams should win this game.

Notre Dame +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
9 of the last 12 match ups between these two teams have been decided by a TD or less and I think this game will be no different. First of all the Big Ten's rep is taking major hits as they went 0-3 against the PAC 12 last week and has not really come up with many signature wins. Notre Dame is under rated here despite their lackluster performance against an under rated Purdue team. That was a tough game for Notre Dame after playing in Dublin the week before and so far this team looks better than a year ago as they are avoiding the big mistakes and forcing turnovers.

Michigan State on the other hand will have their hands full in my opinion as the Irish have a balanced attack and this will be the first balanced attack Michigan State has faced as the Irish also get a fresh Cierre Wood back. Michigan State can run the ball too and they are getting a lot of credit behind Leveon Bell - but Bell had just 29 yards a year ago on 23 carries and Michigan State was dominated despite having Kirk Cousins and other veteran players. Now they'll start QB Andrew Maxwell against an even better defense. Maxwell struggled against a Boise State group that had 9 new starters. Notre Dame is getting a pass rush and is led by one of the best LB in the country that will shut down this rushing game and put the game in the hands of Andrew Maxwell who threw 3 interceptions at home against Boise State. Notre Dame has 6 takeaways and 7 sacks through the first 2 games and have a rising star in sophomore Stephon Tuitt.

Michigan State's defense is supposed to be great with the elite running backs, but Notre Dame scored 31 points on them in back to back years and the DL has registered just 1 sack and 7 tackles for loss. Notre Dame's first team offense is among the best in the country in converting on third down's with 18-26. Golson at QB is a wild card as he's proving he can throw the ball. Maxwell showed he can do it against Central Mich, but the Chippewas do not have a good pass defense. Meanwhile Notre Dame has a pass rush and their secondary is more athletic than in years past and will create turnovers on Saturday. As long as Notre Dame does not have a disaster day turning the ball over I think they'll win this game.

UNLV +8.5 3.3* PLAY
UNLV got crushed in this game on the road a year ago and now they are home and only under dogs by 8.5 points against a Mike Leach offense?? Looks to good to be true for Wash State backers right? Well I disagree and I'll tell you why - UNLV's defense looks like it has drastically improved thus far holding opponents to 20% conversions on third down. They held Minnesota to 13 points in regulation and it's not like Washington State is putting up big numbers yet despite having the talents of WR Marquess Wilson. The QB situation gets worse with Jeff Tuel likely not playing. They have a capable back up but there is a reason why Leach did not start him to begin with. It's evident Leach is not very happy about the depth at QB. When asked how his QB did at half time in the opener against BYU he replied "average" on national television. His no BS is not usually not a morale boost for a team that should have its work cut out for them in Vegas tonight.

UNLV's offense on the other side will look to play ball control and they should be able to do a good job of it as Washington State is allowing nearly 60% conversions on third down and they haven't played anyone special. UNLV will run the ball with junior Tim Cornett who has 100+ yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games including both games this year. Washington STate is allowing 4.6 ypc and they struggle to get to the QB with a 2.56% sack percentage last year. UNLV should stay in this game with special teams, ground and pound, and good defense on third down or bend but not break. Washington State is only averaging 2.2 ypc on the ground and did not score a point in the 2nd half a week ago. A short week won't help as they prepare for a trip to Vegas. UNLV has the advantage on special teams and thus far in the TO margin department as Washington STate is already -4 on the year and they allowed 4 TD's last year on kick offs so expect UNLV to have an advantage there. UNLV is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 Friday's and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a dog 3.5-10 points.

Packers -4 buy 1/2 -120 5** NFL POD
There is a huge misconception here that the Bears offense is going to be elite now just because of Brandon Marshall. Lets slow down they played the Colts at home last week and now they go on the road into a challenging environment against one of the best teams coming off a loss and hungry for a win. The Bears offense on the road last year only eclipsed 21 points twice in 8 road games last year. They will have to do that against the Packers to cover this spread and I don't see dramatic improvement for them to do it despite putting up 41 points at home.. Don't forget Cutlers first 5 drop backs against the Colts resulted in 3 sacks, interception, and an incomplete pass. Of course then things got easy, but against the Packers on the road he's going to have an even tougher time.

The Packers actually have better offensive numbers and they played a much better defense in the 49ers. Packers were able to get by last year and go 15-1 with the worst defense in the league, but dont' forget their first 6 picks were on defense. This group will improve throughout the season and they didn't play terribly against the 49ers holding them to 22% conversions on third down. I mention that because the Bears only converted 33% against the Colts and were ranked 27th on third down last year. I don't see where this team got so much better that that's going to change dramatically. On the flip side the Packers were 3rd last year 48.5% on third down and Aaron Rodgers was effective again vs. the leagues best defense converting 46% on third down. I think playing a contending team in the Bears allowed the Packers to be better prepared this week. As that game went on Rodgers became more and more comfortable. Look for Jermichael Finley to have a huge game as he caught 4 of Rodgers 8 TD passes against the Bears a year ago. I'm not fooled by last week so be confident laying the points tonight.

Raiders pk 4.4* NFL POD; 3TEAM 10PT TEASER - Raiders +10, Ravens +3, OAK/SD O37 2.2*
First of all the oddsmakers are always really sharp on the lines on Mondays which is why you'll see me lay a bunch of teasers out there much like I did last year. I like the Ravens in the spot at home and the over in the OAK/SD game to go along with our POD on the Raiders.

I love the Raiders here this is a team that's still in a much better spot than the Chargers are. The Chargers could not score a TD on the road in the preseason and Phillip Rivers did not look any better than his 20 interceptions last year as he had 1 TD and 4 interceptions this pre season. Pre season means nothing but you would have like to have seen something more from Rivers. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a 7-4 season before dropping 4 of 5 to finish the season including their week 17 home game against the Chargers that cost them the division.

The Raiders had won 3 straight over the Chargers before that game and I think they'll win this game. Mainly because Carson Palmer is now familiar with his receivers and the offense and Darren McFadden looks like he's 100%. At least the Raiders have a balanced offense. The Chargers are going to have to pass a lot in this game which could mean big issues and turnovers considering they'll likely be without LT Jared Gaither and two of their other starting OL's are banged up, but probable. Ryan Mathews is also doubtful and their RB depth is suspect. I think the Chargers will put up points because of the passing but it will lead to the Raiders tiring out the Chargers defense. The Chargers were last in the league in 3rd down defense a year ago and 20th vs. the run. Look for Darren McFadden to have a huge game as the Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. the AFC West.

Tampa Bucs +3 -120 5.5* POD
buy the point... But I do not think you'll need it. All this hype on Cam Newton and now he's a sophomore and he's been around the league once. Ask Josh Freeman how his sophomore campaign went? Either way everyone is in love with this kid for good reason, but he's getting too much credit because the Panthers have far more issues than the Bucs who look to rebound after losing 10 games in a row to close out the year last year. Their run defense will be improved with rookie LB Lavonte David and strong safety Mark Baron, but don't underestimate Greg Schiano's pedigree for the defense side of the ball as I believe they will improve big time against the run and this is the game they'll showcase that today. It's not like Carolina's defense is any better as they were 26th in RZ TD%, and 26th in 3rd down defense. While the Bucs weren't much better they added some talent on this side of the ball and the offense will be better making the defense better.

On offense the Bucs made big changes bringing in G Carl Nicks to help pass protect they drafted Doug Martin who can be a star in this league and adds another dimension to the offense that Lagarette Blount just didn't. Don't forget Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark giving Josh Freeman the tools and no excuses but to bounce back. Freeman had 25 TD and 6 interceptions in his first year and it was obvious last year he thought the NFL was just that easy, but a 16/22interception campaign motivated him this off season and I think we will see more of the old Josh Freeman who is just as good if not better than Cam Newton. Newton may not have a sophomore slump like he did last year but the NFL is about to get more difficult for him. I don't see him having as much as success and I see the Bucs being better today.

Georgia -2 4.4* NCAAF POD
Welcome to the SEC Missouri and DT Sheldon Richardson thank you for running your mouth. This is not old man football this is the best brand of football responsible for the last 6 national championships type of football.

With all of that said Missouri is about to step up to the big leagues and I have many doubts they are capable against one of the favorites in the SEC in Georgia. For one Missouri will have issues considering they'll start 4 new offensive linemen on the interior and while two tackles return they have a tendency to get beat on inside moves and it just so happens that Georgia is loaded along their front 7, 3-4 defensive scheme. That's bad news for Missouri's star offensive player James Franklin who is more of a runner than he is a passer. Franklin loves to throw off his back foot and is prone to making mistakes and he is the majority of their offense especially after the loss of Egnew, Kemp and Josey as well as 4 offensive linemen. The offense was 11th on 3rd down conversions in the Big 12 last year and I don't see it improving despite the size on the outside that this team has especially in the SEC. A year ago they were converting less than 40% of their third down attempts. That's partially due to them running the ball or passing to the RB 67% of the time on 1st down. That normally created a 2nd and 7 or longer where they ran again 63% of the time. That's not going to get them anywhere against Georgia's front 7. To me this game will quickly turn into a defensive game and that will quite the crowd quickly and give Georgia a major advantage.

Georgia returns their star QB in Aaron Murray after he threw 35 TD's a year ago and did not miss a beat without WR A.J. Green. Although Missouri has the talent to beat SEC teams I just don't think this will be their day as Georgia will have the field position in their favor all day. Led by receiver Tavarres King I believe the group of speedy receivers will be able to take advantage of a suspect secondary.

Utah St +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* NCAAF POD
Utah vs. Utah State , both teams will be going to a bowl game this year if you ask me, but this game means everything to Utah State as the Aggies would love to take down their in state rival and bigger brother Utah. This is a team that nearly shocked Auburn on the road early last year losing 42-38 so they have plenty of ability to take down Utah tonight as Gary Anderson is one of the better unknown head coaches around. Anderson's defense should pick up where they left off as #1 in the WAC last year despite losing some players they are tackling machines led by a strong secondary that will keep this game close. IT also helps that Anderson was the DC at Utah for many years and is very familiar with Utah.

Utah State offensively will be solid behind returner at QB Chuckie Keeton and they are led by an offensive line that was solid last year and returns their star C in Tyler Larsen who should be able to neutralize Utah's star defensive line men in Lotolelei. Utah State had an efficient passing game with 64% completions and 23 TD while throwing just 6 interceptions and the offensive linemen know how to block and zone block well. That will make things easier for the runners in Joe Hill and Kerwyn Williams. Utah on the other hand in their opener did struggle a little and missed several big plays that once again won't be there tonight. On one possession it took them 21 plays to score on an FCS school. This is a team that was 106th in 3rd down conversions 33.95% last year while Utah State was 9th at 48.86% and Utah State's defense was even better holding opponents to 35% conversions on third down. I think they can have the same type of success especially since Utah has to replace two all conference tackles. Utah has plenty of talent at OL and size, but this is the perfect time for the Aggies to pull an upset.

Pittsburgh +5 3.3* play
Much of the public is hammering away at Cincinnati especially considering Pittsburgh lost to an FCS foe last week at Youngstown State. For one Youngstown caught a break as the Panthers had no depth on defense especially along the defensive line as Paul Chryst sent a message by suspending 6 players a week ago. This is a completely different Pittsburgh team than a year ago and in a good way as they get back to their roots of running and setting up the pass. Cinci has their own issues as they lost so many stars on offense and defense and have 60 1st and 2nd year players on the roster. The quick turn around for Pitt is a good thing in this case after losing to an FCS foe and having revenge for last years meeting with Cinci. Pitt also got a warm up against a spread offense that should only benefit them tonight. Paul Chryst was the OC for Wisconsin the last 6 years so he was a perfect fit for a Pitt team that perennially would run the ball and they will be running behind a more balanced offense and an offensive line that

NYG/DAL Over 45 4.4* NFL POD; Cowboys +10/Over39 2.2* teaser
I lean towards the Cowboys in this game for one reason, a balanced attack and an improved secondary with Carr/Claiborne. However, it's the over I'm thinking will be more likely with both QB's due to throw the ball 30+ times. In both games last year the two QB's eclipsed 70+ throws combined. That's mainly due to their inabilities to run and that should be true for tonight as well. For the Giants David Wilson is a nice upgrade, but the Cowboys were able to hold a lot of opponents under 4 yards per carry last year as they were 7th vs. the run. I see Eli opening things up and throwing the ball 40+ times like he did so often late last year. Watch out for his new TE, and ex Cowboy Bennett to have a big game.

Cowboys offense is a little sketchier with the inability to protect Romo, but they still scored 34 points against the Giants when they were home. They should have a better protection scheme in place to avoid being sacked 6 times and Tony Romo is still one of the better QB's in terms of avoiding sacks and moving in the pocket and finding open receivers. Romo has more of a balanced running game and they proved they can run the ball against the Giants with a healthy Demarco Murray they should be able to protect Romo much more than they did in the last meeting. If he does not have Jason Witten it won't be a huge loss he had just 3 receptions in the Cowboys 34-37 loss anyway. Romo will get Miles Austin and Dez Bryant involved early in a depleted Giants secondary while the running game keeps the Giants ferocious defensive line honest.

Virginia Tech/ Georgia Tech U47.5 Georgia Tech brings it's triple option to Lane Stadium in what is a very very important game in the ACC Coastal division. Virginia Tech returns nearly all of their starters on defense and for the first time Bud Foster's group will have ample time preparing for the triple option and he has the players to shut it down. The Hokies return their entire front 7 led by James Gayle on the front 4 and All-American Bruce Taylor at linebacker. The front 7 are ridiculously fast off the ball and Georgia Tech does not have that WR that can keep a defense honest this year with Stephen Hill off playing in the NFL. I'm sure the Yellow Jackets will develop one, but in the first game of the season in a very important game I expect both teams to come out conservative especially the Hokies on offense. Virginia Tech has Logan Thomas at QB and the guy is a beast with NFL measurables, but there are a lot of questions at RB, along the offensive line and at WR. Expect a lot of run and tuck it from Thomas and a low scoring game because of that. The Hokies are also Under the total in 15 of their last 21 games.

Auburn +3 -105 5* NCAAF POD
This game will be on a neutral field in Atlanta and the under rated Auburn team in my opinion will win it. All this Tigers team needs to do for motivation is check out the youtube clip of Dabo Swinney fired up after they beat Auburn at home 38-24 and that was after they trailed 21-7. Look for Auburn to have a lot of revenge on their mind in a game that won't be anything like last year and I'll tell you why.

Before I get into Auburn note that they were not terrible last year going 8-5 losing 4 on the road to very good teams Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and then they lost one home game against Alabama the National Champion. Meanwhile Clemson ended their 2011 campaign losing 3 of 4 including a blowout in their bowl game.

Last year it was all about Tajh Boyd as he was 30-42 for 386 yards 4TD 0 INT as he was 14-18 on third down conversions. It's hard to think Clemson will be able to duplicate that considering their offensive line is experience a complete overhaul with 3 newbies as well they have lost 3 starters on the defensive line. To make matters worse Sammy Watkins who had 10 rec 155 yards in that game is suspended. There is just no way Boyd can repeat the success he had last year with 3 new starters on the offensive line and Auburn has a pair of ends that can be dominating in Corey Lemonier and Dee Ford to go along with 7 other starters that return on the defense.

Offensively Auburn will start Kiehl Frazier, but they should be able to run in this game considering how vulnerable Clemson is on the defensive line. They ran for 237 yards last year on 6.2 ypc look for that to happen again, but with new offensive coordinator Scott Loeffer there will clearly be more balance and that will benefit maybe one of the best TE in the nation in PHillip Lutzenkirchen. I think this line is derived off the public's perception of Auburn and Clemson. Last year Clemson lost on the road at South Carolina 13-34 while Auburn actually won on the road. That one game was a bad game and I'm sure Auburn has been motivated all summer long to take revenge on Clemson who is now 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on neutral fields while Auburn is 5-1 ATS.

NC STATE +3 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD
16 starters return from the Wolfback team that won 6 of their final 8 games including 3 in a row against Louisville, Clemson, and Maryland to close the year out. This is the year Tom O'Brien has been building for and there is real potential to get to 10 starters. They have 4 starters returning on an offensive line and a NFL prospect in 6-6 QB Mike Glennon who completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,054 yards, 31 TD's and 12 interceptions last year. He'll face off against Tennessee team that is also returning 4 starters and features a 6-6 QB in Tyler Bray, but Glennon has proved himself more and my confidence is with him and the offense that surrounds him as they have more dpeth at running back with James Washington and Mustafa Greene now returning from an injury. More importantly TN brings in a new coaching staff on defense that is making some changes that could hurt them early in the season.

On the other side of the ball TN breaks in a new starter at the most important position LT in a sophomore who will make his first start. IT definitely hurts them that they also lost Da'Rick Rogers at WR due to a suspension and now Justin Hunter who is returning from an ACL injury goes up against an All-American CB David Amerson who had 13 interceptions himself last year. NC State may be more vulnerable up front, but TN has yet to proven they can run the ball on anyone averaging just 90 yards a game last year. It's likely Bray and the offense will look to pass, but awaiting them will be Amerson and the rest of the ball hawking secondary that surrounds him which are 3 seniors! Tennesse is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC while NC State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Tennessee should be improved but this is just a challenging game on a neutral field in the season opener that will make them look bad.

Vanderbilt +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
Vanderbilt lost 21-3 on the road last year against South Carolina, but a lot has changed since. So that you too can take Vandy seriously I'll give you some highlights from last year - they nearly beat Georgia and Arkansas at home last year losing by a combined 8 points. They were ranked 18th in yards allowed and they return 8 starters on offense with plenty of depth behind them and 7 starters on defense with an experienced secondary. IN that game they lost 21-3 last year they were on the road, Jordan Rodgers was not yet the starter and the offensive line was not healthy. For instance their best OL Wesley Johnson is back at his best position LT because of the health and depth of the line.

Speaking of Vanderbilts offense. They are a run first unit with Rodgers being called a dual threat QB as he had 420 yards rushing last year but the real talent is senior Zac Stacy who had 1,193 yards last year and 5.9 ypc and he's backed up by SEC freshmen of the year Warren Newman. Now South Carolina has a great defensive line when it comes to rushing the QB as they have two 1st round NFL picks in Clowney and Taylor at the end position but they were 45th vs. the run a year ago. Their 2nd rank pass defense will be vulnerable too with 3 starters gone in the secondary and they are also without their best corner Akeem Auguste who is out with a leg. This should do one of two things. Calm the agressiveness that DC Lorenzo Ward likes to come with or lead to big plays against an inexperienced secondary.

If you don't believe it's possible, Vanderbilt was actually #1 in the SEC in plays over 20 yards a year ago. So enough about Vandy's offense what about Marcus Lattimore shouldn't he be able to run all over a Vanderbilt team? He had just 77 yards last year in the game and I'm still not sold on how much he trusts his leg. Either way Vanderbilt can sell out against the run because they have an experienced secondary. I also do not think they'll have to worry about the passing game of South Carolina and this is a plus because it will also slow the game down. Connor Shaw has talent, but he also has a very young inexperienced offensive line that replaces 3 starters and he also lost Alshon Jeffrey to throw to. The receivers have plenty of speed but it's going to take a bit to get that chemistry back.

Not only will Vanderbilt be sold out and pumped for the first game but they hold a considerable advantage on special teams. They are one of the best in the nation in defending kickoffs and punts and I feel they'll dominate field position making it very difficult for a South Carolina team that was ranked 95th in passing last year and will be looking to do a lot of damage on the ground. It's hard to grind out drives in those situations.

Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 55 (3.3* play)
Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots.

Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf.

It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots.

One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day.

7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over.

Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle.

Giants +3 -120 (6*NFL POD); Giants +128 (2.5* bonus)
Love the Giants in this spot especially the fact that they have revenge. They have just been a completely different team since they beat the Jets and their defensive line is as healthy as it's been all season. The way their defense is playing right now it's just as good as the 49ers considering what they did on the road last week against Aaron Rodgers. A lot of it had to do with turnovers and drop passes but the Giants did everything they had to in order to win easily and that is really what they did. Meanwhile the 49ers who I also had as a POD surprised a lot of people and won with Alex Smith driving the field. Don't expect that to happen again this week I see the 49ers going back to their old ways of run first trying to beat the Giants at their alleged weakness but that run defense was stout down the stretch.

Manning in the first match up was -1 in the TO margin as he threw 2 interceptions.. Once again I think he redeems himself he's having that kind of year. Manning and the Giants really had that game won last time in San Fran they dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes held the 49ers to 305 yards as they were +90. They could not get the ball in the end zone just 1 for 4 in the red zone. But right now this team is just a different team they are clicking on both ends at the right time.

They are converting 50% of their third downs over their last 3 games and were 7-14 in the first match up while the 49ers were 3-11 in the first match up and are just 28.89% over their last 3 games and are 31st on the season in 3rd down offense. What's surprising is their defense is not as good at home giving up 39% red zone conversions to 30% ont he road and the Giants defense is allowing just 35.83% conversions on the road. This is a team that just wins on the road under Tom Coughlin.

We know all about the 49ers struggles in the red zone and they are under 40% TD rate in the red zone now they've done better of late, but now once again against the Giants I think they'll be conservative. The way they win is run and don't turn the ball over they were #1 in the league in TO margin and were +4 vs. the Saints. Giants were +3 vs. the Packers. So it'll be interesting to see who wins the TO battle. The 49ers will have to be +2 or better to win this game in my opinion and the Giants are 5th in the league in TO margin so I don't see it happening. Giants are now 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games and it'll continue with another trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday night.

Giants +8

I said last week this team was nothing like the 2007 team that won the Super Bowl, but now I

49ers +4 (5.5* NFL POD) 49ers +175 (2* play) The 49ers are about to be tested, but there is a lot about their play at home that I like other than the fact they allow just 10.9 points per game. They are probably the leagues best all around defense, but they'll have their hands full with the Saints who broke an NFL record in 3rd down conversions at 57.08% on the season and over their last 3 have converted 70% of their 3rd down attempts. Guess what all 3 of those games were at home and now they are going on the road where they scored roughly 2 TD's less. The Saints have also played 12 of their 17 games in a dome this year. When they were not in a dome they averaged 25.8 ppg a significant decrease to their dome and carpet stats. The 49ers are very similar but a lot better than some of the teams the Saints have struggled with on the road including The Titans and Jaguars which I will get to in a second. The 49ers are just so much better than those two teams they have extra time to prepare and that's something that will only benefit this team. This season they had two games one with 10 days and another with 14 days. They won by a combined score of 46-10. The other time they had 8 days as they played a Monday after a Sunday and came up with a 20-3 domination of the Steelers. The 49ers are also the #4 red zone defense allowing just 41.18% TD's, and are #1 in allowed attempts with 2.1. The only opponents in the top 10 in % were the Falcons and Titans who allowed 22 and 26 points when the Saints visited them. Again 49ers are better in this area. San Fran is also #1 in TO margin while New Orleans is 19th. I think it's going to be the 49ers game to lose and they won't make the costly turnover to do so meanwhile the Saints have faced very bad defenses on the road from a pass defense perspective. The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in yardage but that's because nobody can run on them as they are #1 rush defense in yards allowed and yards per carry. The Saints rely on their rushing offense much more than many people realize and it'll be a huge key on Saturday. The 49ers are actually 4th in QB rating allowed. The Saints have faced just two other teams on the road in the top 15 and those were the Jaguars and Titans at 14th and 15th who they managed to score just 23 and 22 points against. But neither of those team's had the pass rush that the 49ers have. Just take a look at the pass rushing teams that the Saints have faced out of domes this year. They're ranked 31st, 32nd, 29th, 25th, and 26th. Again they'll have their hands full and I like the value I'm getting with the general public backing the red hot Saints who a year ago had to go out west and got shut down by the Seahawks. This was once a team that allowed 31 points and went 8-17 on third down against the Rams in a road loss. The Rams were arguably the worst team in the league.

ALABAMA -1 5.5* NCAAF POD
We were on LSU the first time around and if you watched the game you know Alabama would have been the right play as Bama's interception down the middle of the field on a jump ball that got picked off at their own 1 yard line was the difference in the game. That and the fact that they went 2-6 from FG's otherwise they had complete control of that game and revenge will be a huge advantage for this team and is probably the reason they are favorites despite playing in LSU's home state. I'll break down some key aspects to each team's statistics and strategy this year.

Quarterbacks & Pass Defense:
Jordan Jefferson gives LSU more offense and I expect him to get 90% of the snaps in the title game. Jefferson is known for not being super accurate, but he has converted over 60% of his passes thus far and was 6-10 vs. Alabama the first time, but Alabama should come up with the necessary adjustments as they held opponents to just 4.4 yards per attempts and 48.3% conversions and a 83.94 QB rating while picking off 12 passes and allowing just 6 passing TD's this year. AJ McCarron on the other hand got better with every game and was 16-28 for 199 yards in the first game. Bama did have two uncharacteristic turnovers one on a trick play when they let WR Marquis Maze pass which ultimately cost them in a game which had the feeling of them dominating. LSU's pass defense is solid and their corner backs are better than Bama's but I still give Alabama the advantage as LSU's pass defense allows 1 more yard per attempt at 5.4, 51.1%, and a 93.07 QB rating, but they only allowed 7 passing TD's and had 6 more interceptions with 18 on the season.

Penalties, Special Teams & Turnovers
Alabama is cleaner and penalized 2.2 times less than LSU on the season and they were penalized 6 times to LSU's 7. Alabama has one of the best coverage units and I doubt they let Tyrann Mathieu touch it. In the first game they dominated field position all game long so special teams did not seem to be the issue and both teams were even in TO margin which again giving the ball up two times was not like Alabama or LSU. I expect Alabama to have better FG opportunities and they'll punt before they try a long FG which should help them even more in field position.

Rushing Offense & Defense
LSU on paper had more rushing yards than Alabama in the first game but to me Alabama had much more success. LSU never allows a RB to get into a rhythm and I think that's a big deal. On the other side Trent Richardson is a beast and he's been here before. Against Texas the #1 run defense in 2009 he had 19 carries for 109 yards in the National Championship as a freshmen. In the first game he ran for 89 yards on 23 carries while Spencer Ware had 16 carries for 23 yards for LSU. Just like the passing defense of Alabama allowing 1 yard less per attempt, the Alabama Run defense is allowing 0.9 yards less than LSU and they have the better running game. Opponents have only rushed for 1st downs 3.6 times per game against Alabama's defense while they have rushed for 5.6 per game vs. LSU which will be key since both teams will want to pick up first downs on the ground.

3rd Downs:
In the match up it was Alabama that was 5-13 and LSU just 3-11. ON the season Alabama has the offensive advantage probably because they are more balanced with a more accurate QB in McCarron. They converted 48.7% on the year and 49.06% in conference games while LSU converted 46.84% but only 41.75% in conference games and converted 39.29% on the road and were 1-9 against Georgia in the SEC Championship game and in the first half they had 6 possessions and had 6 3 and outs. There is no better defense in the nation on third down than Alabama. Defensively Alabama is also the better team holding opponents amazingly to 25% conversions on third down and just 22.02 % in conference games. Meanwhile LSU holds opponents to 34.87%, but 40% on the road and 34.4% in conference play.

Red Zone:
Okay both defenses were outstanding this year. Alabama only allowed 17 attempts all year in 12 games and only 12 attempts in 8 conference games while LSU just as good 23 attempts in 13 games and 13 attempts in 9 conference games. Alabama is a bit better at holding opponents out of the end zone 35.29% allowing just 6 TD's all year while LSU allowed 12 in 23 attempts. Offensively both teams got there and this is one edge LSU does have scoring 72.13% of their 61 attempts, but they were 0-3 vs. Alabama the first time around and I expect Alabama's defense to continue that success which will out weigh the small advantage LSU has on getting the ball in the end zone.

Final Remarks:
LSU to me just relies to much on special teams and turnovers and that's really not where Alabama will make mistakes. We saw the offensive weaknesses of LSU in their last 2 games vs. Arkansas and Georgia in which they trailed 10-0 and 14-0 and the countless 3 and outs. They can't afford that to happen vs. Alabama but I don't know how they can avoid it. I give a small coaching advantage to Nick Saban he'll have his team ready to win this one after losing a heart breaker at home the first time around. He was able to get his team to put up 37 points vs. another top 5 defense in 2009 so I'm confident Alabama will win this game setting up a lot of controversy on why LSU had to play Alabama again.

NILL +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
Love Northern Illinois here first of all let's not get sucked into the rankings on Arkansas defense where they are top 20 in total defense rushing defense and scoring defense. First of all they haven't faced any offenses that are as balanced and as good as Northern Illinois with maybe the exception of Virginia Tech. On average they've faced a 74th ranked total offense while Northern Illinois is 9th. Even worse they have faced an average 82nd rushing offense from ypc aspect and Northern Illinois is ranked 4th in the nation and are averaging 5.75 ypc and it all starts with their veteran offensive line led by 4 seniors and 1 junior. Arkansas State does have 32 sacks, but Northern Illinois has allowed just 9 sacks. Chandler Harnish really has been the difference with his decision making.

I like Ryan Aplin too on the other side, but he's small and tends to give the ball away with 13 INT's on the year while Harnish 62.9%, 26 TD's and just 5 interceptions and a 156 QB rating which is the highest of any opponent that Arkansas has faced. The average opponent was ranked 81st while Harnish is 16th in the nation so you know he can pass the ball too.

Arkansas State will also be playing with an interim coach as their head man took the Ole Miss job. that should offset the fact that this game is closer to their campus than Northern Illinois. Also Northern Illinois gave the ball up less this year was penalized less and was better offensively on 3rd down 47.5% to 44.2% and in the red zone they got their more and scored more. They had 64 att in the RZ and scored 64% of the time and 73% on the road meanwhile Arkansas State got their 61 times and scored TD's 57.38% of the time. Getting off the field is pretty even Northern Illinois 37.5% and Northern Illinois 39.5% but they only allowed 33% in their last 9 games after a slow start. Despite missing two defensive starters today they still are better defense than the stat sheet says.

Falcons +3.5 -115 buy 1/2 - 5.5* NFL POD I'm not sold on the Giants back to back wins vs. the Cowboys and Jets does not really impress me because neither of those teams had much balance on offense and now they face the Falcons who ironically have a lot of balance with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. The Giants pass rush and all the hype of them reminding the media of the 2007 Super Bowl team to me is so far off. For one the Giants actually had a running game in 2007. This year they are ranked dead last in rushing yards and the Falcons have a very capable run stop unit. Yes the Giants came on strong at the end of the year but remember their game against the Redskins? Yuck, I just think this team is a .500 team and not a team that can string off a bunch of wins mainly because their secondary and rushing defense are suspect and the pass rush can not hide everything especially going up against the Falcons who will go into a no huddle offense at any time. I also expect to see Turner have designed runs at Osi Umenyiora who struggles in run defense. The Giants are 23rd in the league in run defense from a ypc aspect allowing 4.5 ypc. The Falcons have been just as hot at the end of the season in fact Matt Ryan has 10 TD passes 0 Interceptions over his last 4 games. Atlanta is +7 turnover margin in their last 3 games while the Giants are +3 both teams rank in the top 10 for the season. In a game where both teams are pretty even you have to take the under dog and that would be the Falcons. I like the fact that they are 8th in RZ defense from TD's allowed and have allowed opponents to get their 15 times less this season to the Giants 46 att to 61. The Giants are 23rd allowing 55.74% TD's in the red zone this season and the Falcons have gotten inside the red zone 3 more times than the Giants and are ranked 13th when they get their in TD%. They are also better at staying on the field as the Giants are 15th, converting 37.38% while the Falcons with balance are 6th 44.39%. Take away the two Victor Cruz plays in the last two games and this Giants team is ordinary and probably sitting home for the playoffs. They're 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite .5 to 3 points while the Road team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 match ups in this series.

Texans -3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) These two met just three weeks ago with the Texans winning on a last second TD pass by TJ Yates. Yates actually threw 49 passes in that game as they were playing from behind all game and he took 5 sacks. Surprising was the rushing game worked they had 28 carries for 5.14 ypc. Texans are one of those teams that are rush proof they can run on any team we saw it last year and we saw it this year. When healthy they can run and now they got Andre Johnson back which should open up things even more. People forget just how good this defense has been all year #2 in total yards allowed and they have been consistent 3rd against pass, and 4th against the run and 4th in scoring defense. Bengals start a rookie QB to but the Bengals have been unable to run the ball and that's the advantage they do not have vs. the Texans. Bengals just got run over by the Ravens a week ago. This team has not won a game since 1990 in the playoffs and I don't expect that to change on Saturday. TExans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record, they'll win to go to Baltimore next week.

smu/pitt U47 (4.4* pod); SMU +4 (3.3* PLAY)
These teams are quite similar, both lost their star running back and have QB's that struggle that's one reason why I love the under in this one as both team's will try to win with their defense they simply do not have the offensive lines for continuous protection nor do they have the QB's that can lead a team down the field. In fact Pitt was the worst in the nation in sacks allowed with 56. SMU had 26 sacks, but their front line is a lot better than their ranking as they have faced a lot of quick throwing teams like Houston and Tulsa and TCU who just do not give up sacks in fact they faced an average opponent ranked 40th in sacks allowed. This is a team that can certain get to the QB and we will see that in this game.

Expect a lot of 1st and 10 running plays from Pitt and again SMU can stop the run they allowed just 3.5 ypc this season while Pitt also can stop the run allowing 3.36. SMU runs a bit better surprisingly out of the run and shoot, but they lack the experience against a defensive line that truly is stout. Their are advantages and disadvantages on both sides, but SMU has more advantages. For one they have their head coach while Pitt lost their HC to Arizona State. They also are more capable moving the ball through the air although they are more prone to turning the ball over I still will take my chances as JJ McDermott is a senior with two All Conference receivers in Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson. That's where I give SMU the edge in this game tomorrow.

Defense though will shine on both sides especially on third down, Pitt has dominated allowing 31.84% but they also are just 27% offensively on the road and defensively they're not used to seeing teams that can move the ball or even throw the Big East features some of the worst offenses in the nation and lack any true passing teams with the exception of WV, but still I see Pitt coming up with some sacks turning this game over to a field position and conservative approach on both sides. IN the red zone both teams struggle to get into the end zone and they are both allowing opponents not to get their either. Pitt allows 57.58% TD's, but just 33 attempts, and SMU 52.27% on 44 attempts. SMU's stat is particularly impressive considering they had to play some high power offenses such as Houston, Tulsa, Smiss, TCU, and A&M. This is a team that had high expectations, and they can live up to them with a win here and momentum going into next season.

Like Arkansas here they are more balanced on both sides of the ball.

Clemson -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD
I'm backing Clemson here their 2 losses down the stretch to South Carolina and NC St were without the glue of their offensive line in Phillip Price at LT. The 6'5 315lb tackle is healthy and ready to go and that should be the difference. We saw how dominating Clemson was against Virginia Tech this year and I think that talent shows up again tonight.

The key for Clemson is running the ball and this is not the same West Virginia defense of years past. They're 63rd in scoring defense in the Big East? They gave up far too many points to some bad offensive teams. On average they've faced a much less challenging schedule despite facing LSU in non conference ball, Clemson faced 2 SEC teams and their pass defense faced an average 58th passer rating team while WV faced an average 74th. Their run defense faced 47th average rushing offense and WV faced an average 69th. There is no comparison to offenses in the ACC vs. Big East. The health of Andre Ellington will be a key he's 100% and ran for 125 yards against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. We all saw how Virginia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage vs. one of the best rushing teams in the nation last night in Michigan. If Clemson can run on Virginia Tech they can run on West Virginia.

West Virginia Rushing defense on paper gave up just 3.79 ypc overall, but 4.78 on the road they were highly inconsistent and gave up 38, 31, 49 points to 3 average Big East offenses in Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse and they haven't faced a QB and offense this good all year long maybe since LSU and they will have their hands full on 3rd downs which I'll get to in a minute. Clemson can also pass on West Virginia in my opinion the pass rush of West Virginia is not what it was in years past and again I love this offensive line and Tahj Boyd to hook up with all his weapons including Sammy Watkins and TE Dwayne Allen. Most of West Virginia's sacks came in one game 10 vs. Pitt and they had 17 in their other 11 games.

On the flip side Geno Smith has been excellent in the new offense only 7 interceptions 25 TD's and 65%. Probably the most accurate passer Clemson has faced, but they are one dimensional in the end and when you are one dimensional you have issues picking up 3rd downs. Clemson showed major holes in their run defense this year, but athletically up front they should be able to get Geno Smith. They have more talent up front and WV offensive line has under achieved big time and too often Geno Smith has been rushed allowing him not to pick up 3rd down conversions which to me is the biggest difference separating these two teams.

3rd down offense and defense. Clemson is 31st in the nation completing 44.61% of their 3rd downs and 48.48% in non conference. Now they go up against West Virginia who is holding opponents to 36.65% but a closer look tells me a completely different story. They allowed 45.88% on the road and They only faced two top 40 3rd down offensive teams in Syracuse 36th, and LSU 28th. Both converted on 3rd downs and destroyed West Virginia's offense converting 71% for Syracuse and 50% for LSU. Down the stretch they even gave up 52.63% conversions on third down to a similar type QB that they will face tonight in BJ Daniels and South Florida whom were ranked 87th in the nation in 3rd down offense. Take out Syracuse and LSU and West Virginia has faced an average 98th 3rd down offense. When they have played capable offenses they have failed time and time again. This is the same for their red zone defense which is worse than Clemson overall by 10% and they've allowed nearly 70% TD's on the road this year. Clemson's 3rd down and red zone defense are better in my opinion and West Virginia is just 38.41% converting 3rd downs. Look for Clemson to bring their excellent size and athleticism led by DE Andre Branch on 3rd downs which will turn the game.

Another hidden advantage is in special teams and turnovers. West Virginia is -2 and Clemson is +2. Not much of an advantage, but an advantage none the less. Kickoff and Punt Returns also an advantage West Virginia has allowed 24.52 ypr and 2 TD on kickoff's Sammy Watkins has the speed to bring it back at any point 26.27 ypr. Tavon Austin is good in his own right, but Clemson allows just 19.79 yards per return. In a game that should have a ton of points advantage Clemson. They are also allowing 1.5 yards less per punt return, have a higher FG%, and are averaging over 4 more yards per punt. West Virginia is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. ACC and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Clemson is pumped up and following a great ACC Championship with a healthy offensive line should be ready to play well here.

Virginia Tech +3.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I don't think you'll need it but buy the half point. Nobody thinks VT should be here, but they are in a BCS game and that should be motivation for them to show on National TV who Logan Thomas is. Michigan's defense is over rated in my opinion. We already saw how the Big Ten defenses are over rated on Monday it's because the offenses in the Big Ten just are not very good and the same can be true for Michigan's defense although statistically looks solid they really didn't face any crazy good offenses and when they played Notre Dame they were able to do whatever they wanted. Michigan's offense on the other hand can be stopped as they put up just 16 and 14 points in the two games vs. Iowa and Michigan State who play similar type defense to Virginia Tech. Actually it's scary how similar Virginia Tech is to Michigan State as they are 4th in sack % Mich St is #1, they are 6th in completion % defense and MIch St is 13th. They are 15th in opposing QB rating while Mich State is 21st. Even in run defense the parallels again are similar with Virginia Tech ranking 17th in ypc while Michigan State was 5th. Bottom line the ACC has some better offenses in my opinion and Virginia Tech is a better coached team that will have more to play for after their ACC Championship loss. The idea that Denard Robinson has improved his passing is an over statement he still only completed 18 passes and 14 interceptions. Virginia Tech's defense has allowed 50.1% and 14 TD and 15 interceptions. Virginia Tech plays pressure defense and will be able to keep Denard and the running game in check forcing him to throw. The key will be James Gayle who is now healthy for Virginia Tech and showed it vs. Clemson. Also it looks like LB Alonzo Tweedy will also return which should send Kyle Fuller back to CB which can make all the difference. Don't sleep on Vtech's offense Thomas is a huge QB he's shown to be very accurate and doesn't make mistakes. If the game comes down to which defense and which offense makes the plays it'll be the Hokies. They are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. winning teams and Michigan is 8-20 ATS vs. winning teams.

Stanford +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) What a match up this is, but I don't see a Stanford team that again are under dogs to be scared of Oklahoma State or this offense. Andrew Luck pulled off a blow out last year defeating Virginia Tech 40-12. Now they face Oklahoma State and their 106th total defense. IN fact Oklahoma State has been able to stop the run or the pass allowing 5.03 ypc on the road this year. They'll have their hands full with Stephan Taylor and this offensive line of Stanford. Stanford up front on both sides could be the difference. They have two possible first rounders on the offensive line that has allowed just 9 sacks and pathed the way for the 20th ranked running game which has averaged 5.33 ypc. LT Jonathan martin and RG David Decastro. Stanford also has 38 sacks both are better than Oklahoma State who has 28 sacks and have allowed 11. The key stat I'm looking at though is sack % as Stanford is ranked 11th, the next best team they played was Texas A&M ranked 5th and they only won 30-29. Other than Texas A&M the big 12 is not loaded with teams that can get to the QB and it's no surprise that Brandon Weeden has only been sacked 11 times. At the end of the day I look at the more balanced team because Stanford has the look of a team that can stop Oklahoma's State's running game to as they have allowed just 3.11 ypc and 2.50 on the road this year. Stanford is just a little bit better they don't make the mistakes that Oklahoma State has forced other teams into in order to blow teams out of the building. Stanford just 15 total turnovers on the year and they are +6 on the season so don't expect Oklahoma State who has turned the ball over 22 times to be + margin in this one. Stanford also better on third down converting 52.17% to Oklahoma State's 50%, but it's again the defense that's making the difference holding opponents to 30.92% 28% on the road compared to Oklahoma State's 40.7%. Stanford is also better in the red zone converting 78.13% into TD's while Oklahoma State can be stalled 65% TD's.

Michigan State +3 +100 4* play Of the SEC teams in bowl season Georgia probably had the easiest schedule as they did not face Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas in the regular season and then they were exposed by LSU in the SEC Championship game losing 42-10. Michigan State also had a heartbreaking loss in the Big Ten Championship and won't be going to the Rose Bowl yet again. This is a more veteran team than Georgia and although they are not happy about losing that game they do remember coming out in last year's Capital One Bowl and getting destroyed by Alabama 49-7. This team is better and I think they have what it takes to win today. Let's take a look at both QB's because both are pretty good and can play at the next level starting with Kirk Cousins who is the more accurate of the two 65% opposed to 58.8%. Murray has 33 TD's to Cousins 24, but Cousins just 7 interceptions to Murray's 12. Both defenses these two go up against are stout in pass defense, but in my opinion Georgia is a bit over rated having faced just two QB's the entire season in Kellen Moore and Tenn's Tyler Bray both having good games. Georgia is just not used to facing accurate passing QB's and that's what Cousins is with Keshawn Marin and BJ Cunningham on the outside. Both defenses have shown an ability to get to the QB, but Murray has been sacked 13 more times than Cousins. There are some pretty good pass rushes in the Big Ten including Michigan State who was the #1 sack % defense in the nation and had 41 sacks. Georgia got it done often with interceptions and Cousins just doesn't make too many poor decisions even under pressure. Georgia's offensive line will have some real issues in this game and I give the edge to Mich State. Run offense and defense is probably a push, Statistically Michigan State is better allowing 2.9 ypc while Georgia allowed 3.5 and again got even more exposed in the SEC Championship game allowing well over 5 yards per carry. Michigan State on the other hand only allowed 1 team to rush over 4 yards per carry all season and that's pretty consistent. Michigan State's running game also came alive the last 3 games because of Le'Vion Bell who had averaged 5.45 ypc all year and got 7.56, 5.38, and 5.89 over his last 3 games. Finally special teams. We saw how that hurt Georgia in the SEC Championship game and Michigan State has a punt return threat in Keshawn Martin who is explosive averaging nearly 12 yards per return and Nick Hill over 26 yards per kick return. Georgia's kicking game too struggles 7-14 in 40+ yard field goals. I think Georgia overall is a bit over rated and a bit to young to come up with a win after a heartbreaking loss vs. LSU.

2.2* PLAY BONUS

Vikings -1 5.5* NFL POD Bears went 2-5 on the road and since Cutler went down they have not been the same. Two QB's backing him up have 4 games with 3 interceptions. That just won't get it done and the the Vikings have been very competitive of late and they'll be motivated to win in front of their home crowd here on New Years day. Vikings just 1-6 at home this year haven't gone without at least 2 wins at home since 1967 and I think they avoid that again this year. Bears mentally have probably checked out for the holidays. Urlacher and Briggs aren't 100% and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Look for the duo at QB for the Vikings of Joe Webb and Christian Ponder to take this game over they are by far the better QB's and we remember we live in a QB league.

Northwestern +10 (5.5*NCAAF POD); Nwestern +300 1* bonus Texas A&M might be the best 6-6 team, but they just can't be thrilled to be playing in this bowl game after a disaster of a season and it doesn't help that they fired their head coach and interim coach Tim DeRuyter has already accepted the job at Fresno State. Just seems like their minds have been elsewhere as reports have been that their practices have been flat and they lost one of their teammates in a car accident so it's unlikely they are 100% focused. Northwestern on the other hand has come on strong as QB Dan Persa finally looks to be 100%. Persa will be playing in his last game and you have to think he's motivated after missing 2 of Northwestern's last few bowl games. Northwestern has always been competitive in bowl games as they lost last year to Texas Tech by 7 as +7.5, by 3 to Auburn as +9 and by 7 to Missouri as +14 covering each of their last 3 dogs. Texas A&M is 0-5 in their last 5 bowls. Again they come in as heavy dogs to a team that just has more talent, but if anyone can stick with them offensively it's going to be Dan Persa who should be able to continue his nation leading pass efficiency as Texas A&M is 113th in passing defense. Northwestern can also run the ball whether it be with their running backs or QB/WR Kain Colter who is averaging over 5 ypc and should provide a spark on multiple plays on Saturday. Northwestern's defense also improved big time this season towards the end, of course they did not have to face competition like A&M, but they'll take their chances and I think Tannehill will throw a few picks and Northwestern will win the turnover battle. Lastly if you are worried about Northwestern getting rushed by the nation's best pass rush no worries Persa is great at avoiding blitzes and he finally seemed healthy down the stretch as they were only sacked 3 times over their last 4 games and that includes 0 against Michigan State the #1 sack % defense.

BYU +1 (4.4* NCAAF POD) BYU is ranked 16th in overall defense and although Tulsa has 23rd ranked offense have they really face a team of BYU's defensive caliber? Yes, two teams UCF and Boise ranked 15, 16th while BYU is of that same being extremely balanced. Overall though Tulsa has faced a 72nd average total defense. They did not fair well scoring just 24 and 21 points in the Boise and Central Florida games. To me BYU flipped their season with their change at QB to Riley Nelson although Jake Heaps played well down the stretch we could see both QB's tomorrow afternoon as I think they'll both expose Tulsa's 118th ranked secondary and 89th total defense. Both teams are good at stopping the run BYU I think will really give Tulsa a run for their money I think they'll surprise them on how big and strong they are up front. They only allowed 2.95 ypc on the road this year. I think the fact that both teams can stop the run that this game gets put in the hands of each QB and GJ Kinne has been good but when it comes to big games he's come up really small. Let' sbreak down the pass defense a little more because BYU really is much better despite Tulsa's ranking being so hlow they have faced some pretty good offenses so they're not as bad as they seem, but still I take BYU and their QB in this match up. BYU is 40th in pass efficiency defense while Tulsa is 71st. 20th in QB rating and Tulsa is 63rd. BYU is 19th in yds/att defense Tulsa 74th. I trust BYU's pass defense more and they have allowed 14 less sacks. More numbers on 3rd down BYU is just so much better on both sides of the ball. Offensively they are converting 53% of the time and an incredible 64.5% over their last 7 games. Their defense is giving up 36.97% on the year and 33% on the road while Tulsa is 42% on offense and 43% on defense. These same trends follow us to red zone offense and defense and this is where the game will be decided. Both teams are pretty even in offense getting to the red zone 51 and 53 times a piece. BYU has converted 61% into TD's and Tulsa 58.49%. Defensively though BYU is #3 in the nation allowing just 42% TD's on only 33 attempts meanwhile Tulsa has allowed 48 attempts and 58.33%. Bronco Mendenhall is 4-2 in bowl games with BYU.

Notre dame +4 5.5* play + notre dame +155 3* play notre dame under 47 3.3* play
I

5* ncaaf pod
Love Toledo a team that nearly went to Ohio State and won, but allowed Ohio State to come back to win 27-22.

Louisville +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Louisville tonight they can eliminate an aspect of NC State and make them one dimensional and that's the running game which is ranked 107th anyway. Give Strong 4 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional offense that can't protect their QB's and I see Louisville which has been an under dog all year coming up with another big win. I mean they put up 34 points in back to back games to close out the regular season against two very talented defenses in South Florida and Uconn and now they play another talented defense in NC State. Now take a look because NC State has had a much easier schedule to get to this point as they've faced two FCS foes and the average defense as far as total yards allowed was 60th compared to Louisville's opponents which came in at 45th. Louisville had to go up against 5 top 20 rushing defenses from ypc stand point and they themselves are ranked 9th. NC State did not play too well vs. Cincinatti ( Big East Opponent) and FSU who are the closest in scoring defense and rushing defense both in the top 10 too. NC State lost both those games by a combined 14 to 78. Now Florida State and Cinci had a better pass defense and more explosiveness on offense in the regular season so I do not expect a blow out here, but I do expect Louisville, a very young team to benefit big time from these extra practices and they'll continue to do what they do which is win as under dogs. NC State's biggest strength is taking the ball away they're ranked 6th, but Louisville only turned it over a total of 19 times this year and they faced Uconn #3 in takeaways and Rutgers 12th and they won both of those games.

Falcons +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 (5.5* NFL POD) These two teams know each other so well and match up pretty evenly as they are built to beat each other. The last 4 games have been decided by 3 points or less. To me Atlanta has now really come together over their last few games and can go punch for punch with the Saints. They also have more balanced in my opinion and the more talented receivers in Julio Jones (finally healthy) and Roddy White and then they got Tony Gonzalez over the middle. Michael Turner though could be the difference he has 50 carries in his last 2 games at New Orleans and it resulted in 265 yards. The run game should be a huge factor in the red zone for Atlanta because you can't really match up one on one with White, Jones or Gonzalez I look for option runs up the gut with Turner walking into the end zone. At the end of the day both teams are playing their best football and it should be close throughout and come down to yet again a field goal. Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 in New Orleans and the dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

North Carolina +6 (4.4* NCAAF POD); UNC +210 (1* bonus) To me this game is simple. Which team can stop the run and turn the other into a one dimensional team and to me at least the answer is obvious North Carolina. Both teams are quite similar with talented defensive lines and talented sophmore QB's, but the injury to Henry Josey from Missouri went down it was a huge loss as he was averaging over 8 yards per carry. Missouri hasn't been the same. When they played Kansas at the end of the year they averaged just 3.5 ypc on 47 carries and Kansas was last in the nation in run defense from a ypc statistic allowing 6.1. North Carolina has more of a power running game with Giovani Bernard ranked 23rd nationally with 102 yards per game. Last year Missouri got gashed by a power running game in their bowl game and while I think they're more equipped to stop it this year I think they'll have a better day on the ground than Missouri. Missouri is ranked 40th in ypc allowed while North Carolina is ranked 15th. This game should be put into the hands of both talented sophmore QB's in Bryan Renner and James Franklin. Their numbers are very similar and they'll both face struggling pass defenses in UNC 90th in yards allowed, Missouri 91st. Renner however is the guy I'm taking as he's much more accurate #1 in the ACC 68.8% compared to Franklin 63.3%. Renner plays with the poise of an upperclassman and Missouri lacks a true field stretcher with most of their throws coming under neath dinking and dunking where UNC can take some chance to make stops. Meanwhile Renner has Dwight Jones - 6-4 225 who had 79 receptions 1119 yards and 11 TD's. Renner is also averaging 1.3 more yards per attempt. Which QB will have more success in the red zone? To me again advantage to the Tarheels. UNC and Missouri both got to the red zone similar amount of times. Missouri 51 times and UNC 46 times, but Missouri converting 64% into TD while UNC at 72%. Defensively UNC again holding the advantage allowing 4 less attempts this season and holding opponents to 10% less TD's 45 to 55% in the red zone. This is a huge advantage considering both teams were just 60% on field goals this year. In the end both teams are pretty even. UNC is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a dog while Missouri is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on neutral fields. Missouri won't have as much of an advantage here and I think they under estimate UNC's skill expect some talented match ups and one of the better played bowls of the young bowl season.

Bears +12 (4.4* POD); Bears +18; U48 2.2* bonus Last I checked the Bears are still playing for a playoff seed as they can get in with 2 Falcons losses and 2 wins. Now they make a switch at QB once again and it can only be for the good as Hanie threw 3 interceptions in 3 of 4 games and really cost this defense. Enter Josh McCown which should not excite anyone, but I don't think he'll turn it over at that rate giving the Bears some sort of shot here. This is a divisional opponent and I just can't see the Bears getting blown out in this spot. Especially.... Since Rodgers and the Pack just lost last week and now they are resting two tackles and Greg Jennings is still out. How many times are they going to let Aaron Rodgers stay back there and get hit by Julius Peppers if guys can't get open and they can't block? Expect more runs from the Pack than usual and the feeds right into the Bears hands as the 8th ranked run defense and they are better than that number suggests in my opinion. Either way this is a close game between two divisional opponents with the Bears having much much more to play for here. Both teams will run the ball a lot leading to a quicker game which is why I also like the under in a teaser with the Bears. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a dog 10.5 +.

Nevada +8 (4.4* POD) Over 57/Nevada +14 (2.2* teaser) Love Nevada and I think a lot of points get scored tonight as both teams have balanced offenses and are int he top 15 in scoring points. Souther Miss coach Larry Fedora is headed to North Carolina but oddly enough administration is letting him stay to caoch I don't know where his motivation is for this game nor do I know what it is for the team after they upset Houston in the Conference Championship, but look for it to have an impact on this game. First do not sleep on a WAC team as LA Tech nearly upset both Houston and Smiss losing by a combined 3 points and Nevada had a 20-3 lead over LA Tech in the 4th quarter before losing 24-20. I think Nevada's offense is more explosive and is converting 49.14 % on 3rd down while Smiss is at 43.5% both teams are the same defensively on 3rd down and Smiss gets much worse on the road 46%. Red Zone action, both teams have gotten there 55 times this year and Nevada 60% of the time turns them into TD's while Smiss 54.5%. Also Nevada is allowing 9 fewer attempts by opponents into the red zone. Game will be played on turf and Smiss is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on turf while Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as dogs.

Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD Love the Chargers today they are just hot right now they are better defensively and right now on offense they are better especially when it comes to balance. They can run the ball and pass and Antonio Gates should have a nice day as the Lions seem to be a little weak in the middle of the field. Chargers have put up 38, 37, and 34 in their last 3 games and they played Jaguars and Ravens defenses in 2 of those 3 games both better equipped to stop opposing offenses than the Lions. Detroit on the other hand has literally no running game and SD is allowing less than 14 points the last 3 weeks and they own the 6th ranked pass defense. There is a reason why SD leads the league in fewest passing attempts per game against them. Teams do not want to throw on them. This game comes down to these two QB's and DET is allowing 68% per pass in their last 3 while SD 55%, Offensively both QB's are hot right now, but Rivers last 3 games is hotter 75% of his passes have been completed compared to Stafford 66%. On the season both QB's sack % per drop back is very similar at 5.63% to 5.15 % with Stafford holding the advantage but Rivers over the last 3 games just 2.33% compared to Stafford 7.44%. Chargers just have more experienced and are used to these late season must win games and the Lions are not. San Diego is 23-9-3 ATS in their last 35 as a dog 18-8-3 ATS in their last 29 as a road dog while the Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

HOU/IND U40.5 (4.4* pod); Colts+7 (2.2* bonus) Okay so it's obvious the Texans will be spending a lot of time on the ground and can they put up big scoring numbers? I don't think so as the Colts are not that bad vs. the run allowing 4.1 ypc good for 13th. Texans just lost to Carolina who were 24th allowing 4.6 ypc and they didn't lose on the road they lost at home, meanwhile the Colts got their first win and I'd say this game is important to them because they have dominated the alleged rivalry from previous years and this team is proud and should come out in front of their fans and put up a good fight. I doubt the Texans will be dropping back risking another QB injury considering the Colts can rush the passer. Plus teams have definitely caught up to Yates and even over their last 4 games they have only scored 13-20 points per game. Colts won't score much either keeping things one the ground and Houston's top 5 defense should keep this one easily under the total. I see a 17-14 17-13 type game.

Arizona State +14.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Arizona State is a time that really lost a lot down the stretch after starting 6-2 and being nationally ranked. Their defense turned south, but they continued to score points and that's why I like them still tonight. On the shoulders of Brock Osweiler I think he'll be able to score enough points to cover this spread. Why would Arizona State be pumped for this game? Despite not going to a BCS or even in their conference championship this team is playing a top 10 team so defeating them would send the seniors out on a high note and this is a senior laden team. Dennis Erickson stepped down or fired or whatever will coach his last game. I believe preparation will be at a premium. Not many people know their last game or their last hoorah but Erickson in this situation does. He's got an impressive resume from his Miami days and his days in the NFL and I believe he'll have some special things for Boise tonight that will allow them to cover the spread. On the flip side Boise had just 14 sacks in their last 11 games and they allowed 10 TD passes in a 3 game span vs. UNLV, TCU, and SD State. Osweiler runs the 10th ranked passing offense and should cause fits for Boise defense. Boise of course is an offensive machine behind Kellen Moore's 41 TD passes he has not lost a beat all year long despite losing his top two WR to the NFL Draft. AZ has the talent up front to get into the backfield and stop the run. Boise only ran the ball 4.54 ypc and just 4.22 in their last 5. That's productive but not enough to dominate a game and cover this spread. Arizona State at one time was the #1 team in the league in sacks and forced turnovers and they did finish with 29. I think the outstanding LB Vantaze Burfict who quit on his team in the last game will be highly motivated and even motivational to his teammates. I do expect to see some of that momentum on Arizona State's side throughout this time. Will it be enough to win? I doubt it, but if they can get back to where they were earlier in the year on 3rd down defense holding Oregon 3 for 11 and holding various other opponents under 30% they can win this game. On the year they have held opponents to 34% conversions and even their red zone defensive TD% allowed is lower than Boise 53% to Boise's 64%. Secret weapon would have to be kick returner Jamal Miles. He's got returns of 98 and 95 yards and a punt return for a TD of 78 yards look for this to be an advantage in this game. Arizona State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 10.5+ while Boise just 0-6ATS in their last 6 as favorites 10.5+.

L.A. Tech played some quality teams and won 7 straight down the stretch.

If you have been following me this year you know that I

49ers -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD); 49ers +3.5/U44 3.3* teaser Love the 49ers here tonight this is a huge game for them to keep the #2 seed in the NFC for home field and they go up against a Steelers team that has struggled this year when it's had to play a top 5 defense going 0-3 losing twice vs. the Ravens and once vs. the Texans. 49ers are ranked 4th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Big Ben will play it looks like although they should hand the ball off quite a bit in this one and that plays in the hands of the 49ers who own the leagues #1 run defense. I expect this to give the Steelers tons of issues especially since they have not played that well on the road even against mediocre teams. 49ers may be without Patrick Willis, but the Steelers are surely without James Harrisson which makes that a wash. I like the fact that the 49ers just do not turn the ball over with Alex Smith turning it over just 5 times. Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. 49ers are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Monday night games. The under is 37-18 in the Steelers last 55 road games as a dog. It's obvious this game turns into a defensive affair and I'm banking on the 49ers coming up big at home.

Lions -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Lions, they simulated a 4 game playoff run last year and went on a run and I believe they duplicate that on their way to the playoffs. They control their own destiny and Oakland right now has lost their strength, the ability to run the ball is basically gone as Bush has less than 3 yards per carry over the last 3 games. Lions are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite .5 to 3. Look for the Lions to really push the pocket on Carson Palmer who has made all kinds of mistakes since coming back to the NFL.

ULLAF +4.5

One team is thrilled to be in the New Orleans bowl and the other is disappointed as they had higher hopes for 2011, but it

Bucs +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Cowboys are on back to back disheartening losses and I'm curious to see how they can dominate an opponent like the Bucs who have lost 7 games in a row, but the Cowboys are 2-4 on the road and even in their 2 wins they won by a FG in both and I expect a very close game the Bucs are not as bad as they have played. Statistically the main difference between these two teams is turnovers and Josh Freeman is having an awful year, but I think he bounces back when he returns home if they start handing the ball off to Blount and being more conservative this team can absolutely pull the upset and hopefully save their head coaches job. Raheem Morris is said to be on the hot seat now and I think his team plays for him tonight at home. Some stats that are just too similar to give the Cowboys a TD fav on the road. For one TB and Dallas are both averaging 19 ppg when TB is at home and Dallas is on the road. Dallas is giving up 24.7 on the road while TB is allowing 25 so it seems that both teams are scoring and allowing the same amount of yards. Also 3rd down defense, TB is not terrible in fact they are slightly better than Dallas with 39% both are ranked 17th and 18th. Run defense too Dallas is allowing 4.2 yards per carry on the season overall while TB 4.6 is worse, Dallas lost Demarco Murray who was averaging a yard better than Felix Jones this season. Red Zone offense both teams are ranked low Dallas 25th with just 46.3% TD in the red zone while TB is 27th with just 43.75%. Really don't understand the spread here as Dallas is also 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 as a road favorite and TB is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points.

Falcons/Jaguars Under 42.5 (2.2* total); Falcons -5.5/U48.5 (4.4* POD Teaser)
This game is very interesting as the Jaguars come off a season high in points and the Falcons erased a 23-7 deficit and scored 24 unanswered points as we ended up losing our Panthers bet in that game.

Rams +10.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Betting makes any game interesting and we love the fact this is an in division rival with both teams knowing each other well. The Rams have double revenge. The Rams lost at a chance at the playoffs last year because of the Seahawks so you bet they want this game. Who are the Seahawks to be laying this many points? This is just the second time the Seahawks are favored all year. The first they lost at home to the Redskins as -3. I know Bradford is questionable but judging by the line movement I'd be he plays. Either way both teams will spend most of the night on the ground running. That will shorten the game quite a bit and in those type of games I'm going with the under dog especially when it's a double digit favorite. Rams last in the league in run defense actually held Lynch in check last time holding him to 88 yards and 27 carries.

CHI/DEN U35.5 5.5* NFL POD
Well this may be one of the more boring games, but obviously important to both teams playoff chances. ON the Bears side they are without Matt Forte which takes away 40% of their offense. They already are not the same passing team without Cutler, but now without Forte they are in trouble because Forte has the vision and receiving skills that Marian Barber does not. I think the Bears struggle to score points and they'll be asking their defense to step up all day long. Bears are the best defense that Tebow has faced since the Jets who shut him down until the last drive.

Bears front 7 is just more talented than the Jets so I expect the running game of Denver to struggle. That turns things over to Tebow and the passing game and we'll see if John Fox lets Tebow go a little bit here. I don't see any more than 20 passing attempts by either team. This will be a run first effort by both and both defenses are capable of shutting the opposing offense down. The only way this goes over the total is if we have turnovers or special teams touch downs. Both teams play this conservatively considering how important the game is. The under is 45-20-2 in the Bears last 67 as a road dog and the Broncos are under 17-7 in their last 24 following a SU win.

Army +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game is pretty cut and dry if you ask me. Both teams know each other extremely well and run the same offense, the triple option. It comes down to who can run the ball and who can stop the run. In those categories these two teams are pretty even. Army a little better at running and Navy a little better at stopping it, but a lot can be said about those stats with strength of schedules and types of offenses each other has played. I look more at their 3rd down and RZ defense can these two stop each other when it counts, and even 4th downs matter in this game because Army has gone for it on 4th down 33 times while Navy 28 times.

Army comes out ahead in most of these key categories and their schedule was not all that easy facing 8 of 11 teams that are bowl eligible. Army ran the ball over 5 yards per carry vs. every opponents but the first when they were 4.91 ypc vs. Northern Illinois. Navy on the other hand was held under 4 ypc twice and 5 another time. Vs. their common opponent Air Force, Navy allowed 5.44 yards per carry while Army allowed 3.31 ypc on 54 carries. In terms of 3rd down conversions Navy comes in at 47.7% while Army 44.9%, defensively Army 49.2% and Navy at 51%, small advantage to Army there, but on 4th down it's a different story, as Army 54.5% conversions and Navy just 46% and defensively Army allowed 37% on 4th down while Navy 61%.

Red Zone, who can turn the possessions into TD's, well Army has 70.45% on their 44 attempts, Navy 43 attempts have 63% TD's and defensively the two are relatively even 75% to 73% in favor of Navy, but Army has only allowed 37 attempts while Navy has allowed 52 attempts. Navy does not have the same LB crew they have had in years past to dominate against the run and Army just seems to be sick of losing 9 times in a row this is clearly their best shot at pulling the upset. I wouldn't say a service academy could have any sort of a let down, but if any team is going to have a let down it's Navy after losing to San Jose State they became bowl ineligible. This game is both Navy and Army's bowl game, but Navy is used to going to a real bowl game in 8 straight years so you have to wonder if they can match the intensity early vs. Army.

Browns +14.5 (4.4* NFL POD) It's going to be in the 20's in Pittsburgh tonight with some winds and Cleveland already has the #1 pass defense. This means a very quick game with lots of running I can see a 17-6 or 17-7 final type. We have already seen the Steelers struggle to get past the Jaguars, Chiefs and Colts and the Browns are very familiar with the Steelers by playing in their division to me this is just too many points for an in division rival. I look for Clevelands offense to do better than they did on Sunday vs. Baltiomore because Baltimore is among the leagues best in 3rd down defense while Pitt is ranked 20th. IT's not the same dominant defense it was in prior years and the offense has suffered some major inconsistencies. It's not like the Colts, Jaguars, or the Chiefs have prolific offenses or shut down defenses.

Browns +7 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Browns here they continue to fly under the radar to most people and yet again when the line opened up as Ravens -7.5 the line quickly moved off that to 6.5 and 7 where it sits now with most of the public backing the Ravens. Ravens have had several hang overs after a big win and last Thursday's game was a big one over the 49ers. Earlier the Ravens have been hung over on the road after a big win in losses to the Jaguars and Seahawks. Neither of those two are as good as the Browns who have the leagues #1 pass defense and are #1 in red zone defense allowing just 40% TD's when opponents get inside the 20. Expect a low scoring game but for the Browns to hang around in this one giving them a shot to win outright.

Uconn +9 (5.5* NCAAF POD); Uconn +300 Uconn + and Money Line Before you could really beat Uconn with a solid passing game, but right now Cinci does not have that with Munchie and Jordan Luallen both not completing 50% of their passes this offense has gone into a tailspin since losing Collaros and though they went on the road to beat Syracus last week it was all about Isaiah Pead and Uconn boasts the best run defense in the Big East and they are #3 in the nation. That ranking is legit their front 7 is the best I

Ohio +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Just 29% of the public is on the Ohio Bobcats in the MAC Championship game, but I like them to cover and probably win out right. Toledo was the last balanced offense that Northern Illinois faced and they gave up 60 points to them. Ohio will force this game into a slower paced game and Northern Illinois defense which I will admit is under rated was just not the same away from home. They

Eagles-2.5 buy 1/2 -120 (4* NFL POD) Call me crazy but this team is better with Vince Young than Michael Vick. We saw it early vs. the Patriots and he's less prone to making big mistakes than Vick is. He threw for over 400 yards vs. the Patriot defense and had countless drops from his receivers. I think the Eagles are a better road team right now 3-2 on the year because playing at home is just too stressful for the "Dream Team." This is the first time I am backing them all year we have faded them a bunch, but I think the time is right despite going up to Seattle. The Seahawks have their own issues with their offense that's among the worst in the league 30th, and they are converting just 32% of their 3rd downs while the Eagles secondary should shut down Travaris Jackson who has 3 TD and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games. Philly's defense is also better on 3rd down the biggest difference right now between these two teams is the turnovers. If the Eagles don't turn the ball over they'll win this game. Even without Vick and Maclin they are far better on offense and I'd say they have much more talent on defense although Seattle stops the run a bit better. Andy Reid just is not a run first type of guy. McCoy had 10 touches a week ago vs. the Patriots. The guy is still the leading rusher though expect the Eagles to win this game on the arm of Vince Young and I feel confident saying that.

South Florida +2 -105 (4.2* NCAAF POD) West Virginia really has not looked good this season especially on the road where their defense has been atrocious giving up 31 to Maryland, 49 to Syracuse, 31 to Rutgers, and then rebounding to give up 21 to Cinci (playing without Collaros most of the way). West Virginia had just 16 sacks all year long before tallying 10 a week ago vs. Pitt, but they'll have their work cut out for them South Florida has been sacked just 14 times and it appears they will have BJ Daniels for this game. A game that is not just any game to either team.

West Virginia wants that BCS game and South Florida wants to win and get in. West Virginia has struggled big time on offense when they are rushed by opposing defense and this to me is just a bad match up for them. South Florida is very fast and they're 2nd in the nation in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss. Their offense on the other hand that many doubt is the 2nd most productive in conference play and is very balanced. This is a defense that simply had a let down vs. Louisville after holding Miami to 6 points. The key is if South Florida can run on West Virginia and I think they can as West Virginia is allowing 4.89 yards per carry compared to 3.07 at home and folks they placed the nation's worst rushing attack in Rutgers and still gave up 31 points. Rutgers does not have a juggernaut passing game by any means so that just goes to show you this is not the same West Virginia defense from years past. South Florida on the flip side can absolutely make what is already a one dimensional offense as they are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry at home. I think their pass rush is the key and I think LB DeDe Lattimore and DE Ryne Giddins will have huge games leading their team to victory.

Before we finish this up let's just go over my favorite stats 3rd down and the Red Zone. It's a crucial aspect of the game when backing a under dog. Can the under dog trade TD's for field goals and in this case they 100% absolutely can. West Virginia is nothing special just 40% overall on 3rd down offensively and on the road 34.5% while USF defense is allowing 34% at home. West Virginia's defense as you guessed on the road is worse allowing 43.94 % conversions. Their offense struggled big time on the road vs. Cinci and Rutgers and USF has a better run defense than Rutgers and are better vs. the pass than both of those teams. Red Zone also advantage for South Florida defensively as they allow just 44% TD's on RZ trips for opposing offenses. West Virginia's offense 64% but 50% in road games. South Florida's offense meanwhile continues to improve in the red zone as they are 60% at home, but 70% overall in their last 4 games. West Virginia's defense allowing 73.68% TD's in their road games this year. On top of all the poor road play they are penalized 7.8 times per game on the road.

NO/NYG Over 50.5 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see the Giants being able to slow down Drew Brees and both teams are among the best in the league in protecting their QB. Brees 19 sacks on the year but he's only been hit 35 times. Manning too only sacked 19 times and 49 hits, but the Saints have literally no pass rush ranked 23rd in the league. Giants have been struggling to run the ball as it is and without Ahmad Bradshaw they'll like go to the air early and often. Saints come off a bye and that's bad news for the Giants. The last 3 years Brees off a bye has been home in each vs. the Seahawks, Giants and Packers. The Saints have won all three of those game by a combined score of 133-75 or 69.33 points per game. Drew Brees has been flawless in thos games throwing for 1,074 yards 12 TD's and 2 interceptions. The Giants are no longer a run first team and now they're 18-7-1 on the over in their last 26 games vs. the NFC and 9-4 in their last 13 as a dog.

Rams -2 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Rams in this one as they dominated the game in Arizona a few weeks ago this is the Cardinals 3rd road game in a row on Tday weekend and they were out gained by 121 yards in the first match up while the Rams held onto the ball for 37 minutes. I twas a missed field goal, an interception and penalties and poor special teams play in OT giving up the TD to Patrick Peterson that cost the Rams that game. This is a must win for the Rams with Steve Spagnolia and his GM on the hot seat and I think they just have more balance than the Cardinals right now. Both teams can rush the passer and we saw that in the first game, but the Rams should have the advantage at home and the advantage with the guy behind center. Many think Sam Bradford has regressed but I like what I am seeing with Brandon Lloyd of late and Steven Jackson had 130 yards rushing in the first match up while Beanie Wells for the Cardinals had just 20 yards on 10 carries. Cardinals are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.

Marshall -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Marshall can get a bowl eligible victory here, but they can also earn the east crown if Southern Miss falls later in the day. That will allow Marshall to play with a lot of energy here. This is a team that beat Louisville and S. Miss at home and continues to play well here they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home fav .5 to 3. East Carolina has been hurt big time with injuries they have 4 offensive linement that are questionable for Saturday and they lost WR's and 3 RB's. Maybe they can make up for those things in home games, but on the road I don't think so. I expect Marshall to come up with a big win on Saturday especially having 2 extra days to prepare.

This is a defense that gets after the QB they have a ton of sacks and they're led by an NFL talent in Vinny Curry who has 11 sacks himself. They get after the QB particularly at home and that leads to turnovers as they are +9 in TO margin at home while Eastern Carolina is -12 on the season turning it over 31 times this year. This is SR day and Marshall has 15 seniors who will be playing in their last game at home. Don't sleep on the Marshall pass defense as they have played miles better at home holding opposing QB's to a 106 QB rating and 51.8% . East Carolina can't run the ball just 3 yards per carry on the road while their defense allows 5.05 so expect Marshall to be running a lot with Tron Martinez they are very capable of dominating a team on the ground.

Last edge will be field advantage and it's a huge edge. East Carolina dead last in net punting averaging just 29.1 yards per punt and they are last in punt return defense. Marshall averages over 11 yards per return so I expect great field position for Marshall all day long which should lead to points and a victory.

Tulsa +3.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love Tulsa here you can say arguably they are the better team as their 3 losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise state in the beginning of the year. Tulsa actually won at Houston last year , but they

Ravens -3 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the Ravens for the simple fact that the 49ers are not used to playing this type of game on both sides of the ball. They play physical themselves, but how often do you see them going up against opponents like this and on a short week and traveling across country? One other time when they faced the Bengals in a 13-8 win, but remember that was an even younger Andy Dalton that was not cut loose until a few games ago. Ravens on the other hand well they have faced 4 like defenses to the 49ers in the Bengals, Steelers (2x), and Jets. Guess what they went 4-0 straight up and ATS and they put up 31, 23, 34, and 35 points. The 30 point games came at home and as we all know they are a different team at home. Why do I bring up this style of football? Well the 49ers will have to take chances in this game running the ball and throwing short just won

TX/TXAM U53.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); TX +8.5 (3.3* PLAY) I love this match up and I'll break it all down. First of all Texas is the best defense that A&M has seen all year long and it's not even close. Some of A&M's home stats running and passing are skewed because they have not faced a top defense like Texas which is #1 in Big 12 and 10th in the nation in total defense. Let's look at who A&M has played at home that has gotten them to some of their great H/A stats. Baylor (115th total defense), Kansas (120th), Missouri (80th and they lost), Oklahoma St (105th) and Idaho (91st). Texas won't need to get in a shoot out this is a team that's stout at stopping the run right we saw what they did against Kansas State and Missouri in back to back weeks and I feel they'll have some extra motivation seeing as though A&M is leaving for the SEC and they'll look for some revenge after losing at home a year ago. Texas A&M has not been the same when they can't run the ball and Cyrus Gray is banged up with a shoulder injury and their other star is gone for the year. Texas is ranked 33rd against the pass and when they know it's coming I think they can stop it especially against A&M who is going to lose the crowd advantage early when they don't light up the scoreboard. So this in hence turns into an ugly game for me as Texas has struggled on offense since the injuries at RB took over. A&M is allowing just 2.50 yards per carry at home so it will be up to Texas QB's to make the noise and that's a scary proposition that I don't think Mac Brown will explore very often making this a defensive battle. I'm not sold on the young offensive line of A&M that's allowed just 7 sacks. They've faced almost zero pass rush this year with opponents ranking 119th, 88th, 105th, 93rd, 112th and 90th in their wins. Texas gets very good push up front and has gotten better as the season has worn on. More on the under if Texas decides they want to get into a shoot out - A&M is #1 in the nation in sacks. So that's not a very good idea, yet what I find odd is they are 118th in pass defense. Teams drop back so much on them they are tallying up the sacks and also they really haven't had teams try to run on them to the extent that Texas is about to. I think Texas can wear their defense down and take advantage in the second half cruising to possibly an outright victory. The Under is 5-2-1 the last 8 meetings at TX A&M.

Ohio -8.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) I normally love the under dog in these type of match ups, but Miami Ohio just came off a deflating loss to Western Michigan a week ago and they are out of the MAC race and their season is over with 7 losses. No bowl game or magic carpet ride like last season. I think it will be a challenge to get up against an Ohio team that has dominated them going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings 3 of the last 4 had a spread of a field goal or less and in those games Ohio has won by an average of 17 points. Offensively Miami Ohio can pass the ball but they are dead last in the nation in running ranked 120th in yardage and that

Dolphins -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Dolphins, Matt Moore has been on fire 62.4% of his passes and so have the Dolphins and their defense which has recorded 8 sacks in their last 2 games and they are shutting down opposing teams running games too, ranked 10th in run defense. Look for Fred Jackson to struggle again on Sunday and for Fitzpatrick to also struggle throwing the ball. Bills season really did a flip once they lost Kyle Williams their NT on defense for the season. This team has reverted to last year's team that struggled stopping the run and right now the Dolphins are finding balance with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. Bush is off 242 yards rushing the last 3 weeks and he continues that success this week. On the otherside the Dolphins defense is playing as good as any in the league right now and Fitzpatrick has 5 interceptions in his last two games now he's without his starting Center Eric Pears who is out. Bills are just 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog .5 to 3pts.

Rutgers +3 (5.5* NCAAF POD) This is Rutgers game to lose as the the Bearcats come off an emotional loss because not only did they lose to West Virginia their rival, but they lost their QB Zach Collaros to a broken ankle. Look for Rutgers to have a lot of revenge for the beat down's they got from Cinci the last few years. Now that Collaros is not there as he threw for 366 yards a year ago. Rutgers defense is the real deal any how and a much improved unit from a year ago. They should be able to come up and stop Isiah Peed. Cinci is great at stopping the run and are ranked #2 in the nation and leads the nation in tackles for loss, but Rutgers doesn't run the ball anyway they've been passing it behind Chas Dodd who had 4 TD and 300+ yards a year ago vs. Cinci and he goes up against their 115th ranked pass defense. Rutgers has the receivers to give them all kinds of issues again including Mohamed Sanu and Mark Harrisson. Harrisson had 240 yards receiving a year ago in the loss. Rutgers defense should put up a better game they are #1 in the Big East in takeaways now facing an inexperienced QB in Munchie Legaux. Rutgers averages 4.5 sacks per home game and although Munchie looked good in relief he faces a much more challenging test knowing he's the starter. Cinci with Collaros were only converting 36.84% on third down on the road and Rutgers defense allowing just 31.8% conversions at home. Again both teams can stop the run this comes down to who can pass better and at home Rutgers has proven they can get to the QB and the newbie Munchie won't have success as Rutgers is holding opponents to 52.5% completions and 9 interceptions at home 53.7% and 16 overall while the Bearcats have allowed 65.2% to opposing QB's. The dog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Cinci is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 in November.

Iowa State +28 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Iowa +2250 (1* play) First off I feel Iowa State matches up really well with Oklahoma St in the fact that they can run the ball and they can defend the pass those are the two things they do best on offense and defense and we will get into it in more detail, but Iowa State has an extra 7 days and they are fighting for bowl eligibility right now and Oklahoma State as 4 TD favorites have to be looking past this game to Oklahoma. Oklahoma was 28 point favorites to Texas Tech and lost so why can't Iowa State take down Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State is ranked 101st in yards allowed this year. It's all about QB play of Jared Barnett who is averaging 5.24 yards per carry. Oklahoma State had all kinds of issues with the trio of dual threat QB's they've faced this year in Kansas Sate Collin Klein, James Franklin, Missouri and Robert Griffin of Baylor. Another key to Oklahoma's season has been forcing turnovers and they have forced a lot. Iowa State has the tendency to be careless but over their last 3 games they have gotten much better and I think the extra prep has only helped them prepare for this. Also Iowa State's defense which has allowed just 12 passing TD's all season has held their last 3 opponents to 27.9% conversions on 3rd downs. Overall 36% at home and their Red Zone defense goes right along with that as they have allowed just 8 TD on red zone appearances at home this year in 21 attempts for just 38%. IF Oklahoma State gets stopped and they aren't overly impressive in the red zone just 60% touchdowns on the road and 64% in conference play then I think Iowa State will easily cover this spread. This spread is all about the hype of Oklahoma State can they handle the pressure when they are the hunted?

NYJ/DEN U40.5 (4.4* NFL POD) This is a dangerous game for the Jets short rest traveling after an emotional loss, basically I think their defense does show up. The Jets are the best in pass defense in this league if you take out Tom Brady and they have the best corner while the Broncos really do not have any weapons at receiver and Tim Tebow is back there throwing. This should be a lot of running tonight as it is the Jets weakness, but they can crowd the box like no other with man to man on the outside. Even last week the Broncos had just 10 points through 3+ quarters vs. the Chiefs and the Jets are much better on defense. On the other side I see the Jets going back to ground and pound it's evident Rex Ryan is frustrated with the offense and although LT is out they activiated Billal Powell. The Jets had McKnight, but now with Powell they can really concentrate on the run. I expect the Jets to struggle a bit on offense as well and this game should fly by with lots of running.

UNC +10.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) 3 of the last 4 match ups in this rivalry have been decided by a TD or less. Last year UNC fell victim of turnovers by their offense as TY Yates threw 4 interceptions. Virginia Tech to me is not the same and they are really banged up on defense and UNC has a balanced offense that Virginia Tech has not faced yet. Bryn Renner is completing 71.4 % of his passes this year which is unreal and 19 TD 11 INT on the season and he has weapons to throw to including 6-4 SR Dwight Jones who has 63 receptions and 8 TD's. UNC also features a talented freshmen running the ball in 5.44 ypc this year 3rd in the ACC in total yards. On the other side we know what Virginia Tech is going to do, run the ball and UNC has the talent to stop it as they have the better defensive line in this one. They held Clemson to 2.14 and Miami to 1.63 yards two solid running teams. I think Virginia Tech may be looking ahead here too as they win here and win against rival Virginia next week and they'll get a rematch against Clemson which they desperately want after losing 23-3. UNC scored 38 points on Clemson so that should tell you all you need to know about UNC's capabilities here. Now there are distractions, but the extra 5 days to prepare and the revenge after last year's loss to a much more talented Virginia Tech team which they led at half time 10-9. People forget Virginia Tech almost lost to Duke 14-10. Logan Thomas was impressive last week but now we'll see what he can do against a team that is much more talented in the front 7 than Georgia Tech who looked to have been in control in that game until the personal foul on defense for Georgia Tech. UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog 10.5+ and Vtech is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite while the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Western Mich +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Miami Ohio is now facing a completely different style offense than they did a week ago vs. Temple who loves to pound the rock. This week they face a high flight offense that is just plain and simply clicking. Alex Carder to Jordan White is a dynamic duo going back to last year. They are only dogs because of their 1-5 road record, but honestly their 5 losses are all to quality bowl teams in Uconn, Michigan, Illinois, and the MAC's two best, Northern Illinois, Toledo and a very improved Eastern Michigan team. Miami Ohio is last in the league in running the ball and that's Western Mich's weakness that we won't ever see. They are just averaging 2.38 ypc and Western Michigan's defense has an extra day to prepare to put their secondary in the right position. I think the swagger of this defense comes back against a one dimensional offense in Miami Ohio as they look to win out to get into a bowl game. Zac Dysert is very turnover prone and his offensive line afforded him little protection as he was sacked 7 times vs. Temple. Western Mich is also just better on 3rd down as they are converting 48.28% on third down in conference play and their defense is allowing 40%. While Miami Ohio converting just 37% and allowing 39.73% at home. Vs. two Passing teams the only passing teams on the schedule in Toledo and Cinci they gave up 44% and 50% 3rd down conversions. This will be a key tonight in what should be another entertaining MAC match up.

NILL -17 -120 buy 1/2 Buy the half here, but I don't think you'll need it as Northern Illinois comes in red hot right now off 45 and 63 point performances and they face a defense ranked 118th in total defense. This is the same defense that gave up 42 points to Temple which has just one way to beat you. Northern Illinois can beat them through the air and on the ground and on special teams. Chandler Harnish is just competing at a different level right now and he should have his way at home against this team. Especially if Temple's Chester Stewart can throw 10-13 for 160 yards on the road vs. Ball State. I liked what I saw from Northern Illinois defense last week and they can get sacks at home 14 in just 4 home games and I expect that to be a big reason why they cover this large spread. Add in that they have held opponents to 31% 3rd down conversions in conference games and 40% overall while they are 64.8% at home in converting 3rd downs and there is a real reason to believe this spread is too low. How can Ball State even get off the field as they are allowing conference opponents to convert on 59.55% of their 3rd downs and they have allowed a 172 QB rating in conference play and now they face one of the conference best QB's. They can't stop the pass and they can't stop the run and they aren't even 100% healthy as they've held 6 different starters out of practice recently. Expect Northern Illinois to score into the 40's for sure and probably the 50's as their defense continues to improve on last week's performance when they held a better offensive Bowling Green to 90 yards and 9 points in the 2nd half.

Chiefs -3 (5.5* NFL POD) Last week we had the Dolphins out right against this team, but that was mainly due to the Chiefs coming off a big win on Monday Night and the Dolphins were over due to end their winless ways. The Dolphins dominated that game for 4 quarters and it was evident that the Chiefs were A. not prepared, and B. not ready physically. Chiefs coach Todd Haley even admitted that they worked on stuff a little too much following a Monday game and I think now this team will be rested and ready to go against a Broncos team that is over achieving. I love Tim Tebow, but I do believe that the option attack just will not sustain in the NFL. Now it's looked pretty good, but the tape is out on Tim Tebow. Make him throw outside the numbers and although Tebow 2-0 on the road is very impressive I see him falling to the Chiefs today. This is coming from someone who is not critical of Tebow I think he can play in this league but he has a long way to go. Force Tebow to throw outside and you win this game and the Chiefs definitely have the talent to do this. Denver is also just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 after scoring 30 + points in previous game and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win.

Missouri +1.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) They must be the best 4-5 team in the league. Missouri is great after allowing 40+ points per game in previous game coming back to go 21-5 ATS. This is a team that could easily be 6-3 and then we

Syracuse +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is a different team at the Carrier Dome and South Florida has been awful on the road this year especially in Big East play unable to get a single win. Syracuse is 4-1 at home and they beat West Virginia 49-23 in their last home game here. They went on to lose at Louisville in a let down game after a huge win and then lost at Uconn last week after turning the ball over 5 times. But back at home turnovers have not been an issue as they are forcing 3 per game at home. They

Raiders +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
Both teams should get conservative in this game because their inabilities to stop the run both are struggling and also both Qb

Georgia Tech +1 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love it, both teams have extra preparation and that means more to Georgia Tech who will get healthy on their offensive line and at linebacker. Both teams will try to establish the run and I believe Georgia Tech will be plenty successful as they ran for over 300 yards vs. a good Clemson team and last year vs. Virginia Tech they ran for 346 yards and are even better this year and Virginia Tech is not as good as last year and seem to be panicking moving players around on defense as many as 5 position changes. That

MIA OH +13 (4.4* NCAAF POD)+420 1* BONUS
If Miami OH can get passed this game I am confident they can lock up the MAC East. They only trail Ohio and the returning MAC Champions have pretty much everyone they had a year ago so there is no doubt they can win this game and 13 points is a lot in a game that is critical to both teams. For one Miami Ohio is a little banged up and playing their 3rd game in 11 days, However, Temple is banged up to I doubt their star RB Bernard Pierce will start and last year without them this same Miami Ohio defense held Temple to 2.5 yards per carry and 215 total yards. The defense has picked it up the last few games allowing 0 TD

Bowling Green +6
I think we are reacting too strongly to Northern Illinois 63 points a week ago to Toledo. Bowling Green matches up much better despite their 91st run defense because their pass defense is pretty good and they are even better at home allowing 52.4% completion rate and 1 TD with 5.4 yards per attempt. Chandler Harnish might have a more challenging game especially since Bowling Green has an extra few days to prepare for what is a huge game for them. Their bowl stakes are on the line and so is the MAC East the two teams ahead of them they have beat and they have Ohio next week. This is the same defense that beat temple 13-10 at home and was within 7 points to Toledo. Bowling Green

Bears +9 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see what reason the Eagles are this big of favorites. They clearly dominated Dallas last week, but I really feel that was not an indication of things to come. They were off a bye and as we all know Andy Reid is undefeated off a bye. Speaking of byes, the Bears are coming off a bye and this is a critical game because it could be a tie breaker that separates these two teams from the playoffs later in the season. For the Bears they are playing better and it's because they have a balanced offense and Cutler has been sacked just 3 times in the last 3 games. Can he continue that success? As long as they continue to feed Matt Forte I think they will. Vick has not played that well vs. the Bears in his career he's 0-3 as a starter and has a 76 rating and has been sacked 15 times in 5 games vs. Chicago. I look for the Bears to be in this game because of their defense, and special teams and ability to run the ball vs. the Eagles suspect defense. The last 4 games in this match up have been decided 3, 4, 4, and 5 points. Eagles do not deserve this much respect in what is a match up between two close teams in overall talent.

Titans -2 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the way the Bengals have played thus far, but honestly who have they beaten? They are ranked 4th in total defense but to me they are beatable defending the pass and I think Hasselback will have a good game at home. Bengals despite winning last week were lucky to win on the road and it won't happen again this week. The QB's they have faced so far this season are Travaris Jackson, Curtis Painter, Blake Gabbert, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, and McCoy. Add in Fitzpatrick at home where they came from behind and I'm not very impressed with their 9th ranked pass defense. Bengals have the Ravens and Steelers coming up on the schedule so I think they lose focus a little while the Titans are 3-1 at home and should have a better idea moving the ball by playing Javon Ringer at RB more. Chris Johnson really put them behind this season and the Titans defense is under rated they are ranked 11th in scoring defense. I think the Bengals will have issues moving the ball and scoring TD's.

Dolphins +4.5 (4.4* PLAY); Dolphins +190 (1* bonus) Love the Dolphins here as the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on Sunday following a Monday night game. A hell of a Monday night game it was and an emotional roller coaster to get there. Yes, the Chiefs are playing better, but the Dolphins are not nearly as bad as their record indicates and I'm going to stick with them to cover the spread as they've played in some close games. They also have been able to run the ball as of late and the Chiefs are ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Dolphins get Daniel Thomas back and Bush is coming off a 100 yard game don't be surprised to see the Dolphins steal this game out right. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team and the Chiefs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite.

FLINT -2.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Western Kentucky has been on fire, and I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade them. The opportunity is when they face a balanced offense, and today they not only will face a balanced offense, but a balanced defense one that's ranked 30th in the nation in stopping the run which is the strength of Western Kentucky with RB Bobby Rainey among one of the best RB's in the country. Florida International has held Rainey under 100 yards in the last two years. Western Kentucky does not have the defense to stop Florida International's balanced attack. For one UL Monroe scored 28 pts on them just last week racking up 456 yards in a 31-28 loss to Western Kentucky. They also allowed 480 yards to MIddle Tennessee which was the last balanced offense they faced. Still MTSU has zero defense ranked 105th in the nation so a 36-33 win for Western Kentucky was no surprise, but Florida International has the 39th ranked total defense. They allow just 3.51 yards per carry, 3.67 on the road and as I mentioned they've had success containing Rainey before and when you don't have to worry about the passing game from Western Kentucky you can get real agressive vs. the run. On the flip side Western Kentucky allows 5.50 yards per carry at home on defense and FIU can run the ball as well as pass. Actually they have the best player on their side of the ball with TY Hilton who will be used in the running and receiving game. He'll have Wesley Carrol throwing to him who has 1740 yards, 9 TD 3 interceptions and 62% completion rate. I like Carrol vs. the 102nd ranked pass defense. Western Kentucky wins when they get sacks 12 in their 4 wins, but FLINT has allowed only 11 sacks all year. Wky is also -6 in turnover margin at home and as we mentioned Florida just does not turn the ball over and I don't think that will change. The last few advantages are extra preparation as Florida has 4 extra days to prepare for this game that's a key conference game. With no look ahead game on the horizon you bet they were concentrated on Western Kentucky and stopping the run and their leading receiver TE Jack Doyle who was shut down vs. ULMON which has one of the nation's worst defenses. To make matters worst Western Kentucky can't make field goal's they are just 3-12 this season. Look for Florida International to make some statements in the red zone and hold the momentum throughout the game

Kent State -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
So we are backing Kent for the second week in a row. I thought their offense made major strides a week ago after a bye week where HC Darrell Hazell was able to shift the offensive line around.

UCF -1 5* NCAAF POD

I love the Knights here at home on Thursday night in what Sr. leadership is calling their

Ohio +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Ohio + Love Ohio here first of all Temple struggles on defense when they can not pin their ears back and go after either a one dimensional running or one dimensional passing attack. At this point Ohio can do both on offense and are just as bit as good on defense as Temple is. Ohio is a balanced offense they can pass with Tettleton and run as always. Temple has faced one team like that and it was Toledo who put up 36 points on them. Ohio has a much deeper more talented defense than Toledo and they are also home with their new black out jerseys on national television. Bernard Pierce is the best player on the field, and Temple has him, but he has not been practicing the last two weeks. Temple had a hard time containing WR Paige from Toledo and should have an even tougher challenge with Lavonn Brazil who will be playing in the NFL next year.

Northern Illinois +9 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Toledo certainly wants revenge from last year's 65-30 laugher vs. Northern Illinois, but I'm not so sure they'll get it. Northern Illinois is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 on turf and they rushed for over 400 yards vs. Toledo last year. Toledo has played well against the run, but partially because they have not faced a dual threat QB or a team that can do both pass and run. Their 4 conference opponents have either been good at one of the other and all 4 struggle to score points. Facing Northern Illinois at home will be a different game as Northern Illinois can throw with Chandler Harnish and they are one of the best teams in the country in running the ball ranked 11th. Unlike Temple who can not throw a lick, Harnish has two 300 yards passing days and Toledo can give up a bunch as they have allowed 295 yards passing per game at home and a 151 QB rating. Harnish does not turn the ball over and is completing 63% of his passes and 50.88% of third downs. When I look at this game I wonder if Toledo can get into third and manageable plays because they just are not as good on 3rd down as Northern Illinois and don't have as much balance. Also on defense Toledo has forced 19 turnovers that's been this teams strength, but they have not been as good as Northern Illinois in creating negative plays. Look for Northern Illinois to force more 3rd and longs.