Cardinals +7 -120 5.5* NFL POD/ Cardinals +235 1* bonus
Seahawks come into this game off a tough and challenging game on their own turft against a gritty tough Titans team without an offense. Now they go on the road as a TD favorite against the Cardinals who could win this game. The Cardinals are a similar team to the Titans although I believe they have more weapons on the offensive side of the ball with Fitzgerald. This will be Andre Ellington's coming out party tonight and the Cardinals top 5 defense will have a huge game. Russell Wilson has been great in the year and a half as the QB, but he often has to bring his team from behind and that's what we will see here. Unfortunately for him the Cardinals secondary is a ball hawking secondary that he may have some issues with especially since the Cardinals have the speed in their front 7 to keep him in the pocket. Cardinals won 20-16 at home to open up 2012, and then they lost 58-0 in Seattle which I'm sure they remember. Arizona held their own last week against the 49ers, but 4 turnovers in their own territory usually spells blow out, but they still had opportunities to win but fell short. Cardinals will clean up the turnovers and win with the defense int he end.

LA Laffayette +4.5 3.3* Sun Belt GOW
This will be the first time Western Kentucky's defense faces a dual threat QB as they were lucky enough to miss Kolt Browning who had an injury last week. Terrance Broadway is a dual threat QB who had 145 yards rushing against the Hilltoppers a year ago on just 14 carries. He is paired with a couple of good running backs in Alonzo Harris and Elijah Mcguire who are both averaging well over 5 yards per carry. Broadway also has a 158 QB rating as he's averaging 8.8 yards per attempts and has 10 TD's to 4 interceptions. This is every bit of a balanced offense, but it relies on the running game first and that's where they can have success against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is 86th allowing 4.7 ypc and they've only played traditional running attacks. If there is no threat of a pass they can absolutely stop the run and have done so this year, but add in a mobile QB that can also pass and I think the Rajin Cajuns will be able to move the ball fine and score some points. They are converting 72% of their red zone opportunities into TD's and 48% of their third downs both numbers are better than Western Kentucky's offense.

Western Kentucky should have it's success too. Lafayette has allowed too many passing yards, but I view the Hilltoppers as a one dimensional offense that doesn't know it yet. They came off a ton of passing yards in their last game and broke a record as Brandon Doughy was 24-36 for 370 yards 2 TD's and 1 interception against LA Monroe. Doughty has been really inconsistent and already has 10 interceptions on the season to go with just 7 TD's. The Hilltoppers are -9 in turnover margin while Lafayette is +6. Lafayette also is very disciplined averaging just 3.7 penalties per game on the road compared to Western Kentucky who is nearly at 7. I just think 4.5 points is far too many for a balanced offense facing a defense that struggles to stop the run. Western Kentucky will move the ball fine, but Lafayette's defense is very good in the red zone only allowing 50% TD's and their biggest weakness which has been special teams coverage will not haunt them tonight as Western Kentucky has one of the worst return games in the country.

Chargers +115 5.5* NFL POD
This is a huge game for the Chargers. Actually I think it's a season changing depending on the result. The Colts meanwhile are coming off some big wins against the NFC Wests 49ers and Seahawks. It took every ounce of effort to hold off the Seahawks a week ago and now they have to travel across country to play a Monday night game against a team that's just going to have more energy. Colts also are going to be looking ahead to the Broncos who they will host next Sunday night. Nobody is going to admit to looking ahead to an opponent but Manning returning to Indianapolis is definitely something this team is looking at. The game against the Chargers is like a pre season game before the Super Bowl and the Chargers need a win to stay in playoff contention.

What's new about the Chargers this year? They are able to protect the QB as they are ranked 5th in fewest sack% on the year with a 4.04%. King Dunlap is probable tonight and that's a huge key to this game. Rivers is flying under the radar here and is actually 2nd in the league to only Peyton Manning in QB rating. He gets the benefit of facing the Colts poor run defense thats' bottom of the league in ypc allowed. Rivers with a decent running game and protection is a top tier QB especailly off play action with a healthy Antonio Gates too. There is a reason this team is converting 71% of their red zone appearnces into TD's at home. Colts defense is allowing 70% TD's on the road and a good reason is because opponents are able to run the ball and it becomes harder to keep a team from a TD when you can't stop the run.

The biggest reason why I love the Chargers tonight aside from the scheduling advantage is Phillip Rivers. The Colts have yet to play a pocket passer this season. They've faced Terrel Pryor, Collin Kaepaernick, Russell Wilson, Chad Henne, and Ryan Tannehill. Tanehill is the closest to a pocket passer and he beat the Colts in their own building. Wilson and Kaepernick are considered top tier QB's, but Wilson's numbers won't blow you away early in the game and Kaepernick has been off all year long. Rivers would be the best pure throwing QB this Colts team has faced and I think they could be in trouble especially when they set up third and short.

Raiders +9 5.5* NFL POD
I'll get a lot of crazy looks today in passing as I get asked who I'm on today as my POD, but that's why I've been so successful in my career on NFL POD's. KC has been nothing but great this year and hasn't lost game and will host the Raiders on Sunday with all the confidence. I love taking a dog of over a TD in a divisional game. The Raiders have always played well in the division. Their win last week over the Chargers was hidden because they didn't play until 11:30pm est last week so I think we still have a ton of value here.

I'm not saying the Raiders are going to go on the road and get a win, but this team led the Colts on the road and lost by only 4. Raiders have a ton of team speed to give the Chiefs problems on both sides of the ball. First off Terrel Pryor is dangerous and the Chiefs did allow Michael Vick to rush for 99 yards on just 5 carries which also opened things up for McCoy who had 158 so watch out in this one as KC is 30th allowing 5.2 ypc.

KC also likes to eat up the clock and I think Oakland's defense is flying under the radar where the Chiefs offense is still not as good as advertised. It helps to have the best average field position of any other team. In the end KC is 25th in 3rd down offense and 19th in the red zone with just 1 TD on 5 red zone appearances last week. Chiefs could be peaking ahead to their game against the Texans. The dog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the road team is 21-6-1 ATS in the last 28.

Ole Miss +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
70% of the public are all over Texas A&M and I'm scratching my head because this spread does look a little low if you don't know much about each team especially since Ole Miss got all the hype going into Alabama and they came out losing 25-0. Now we get value with Ole Miss as the public are not buying anything they were selling earlier in the season. However, people also forget Ole Miss returns 18 starters from a year ago including 10 on defense. It's the same defense that Johny Manziel played his worst game against last year as A&M was trailing 27-17 to start the 4th quarter before coming back and winning 30-27.

Manziel only completed 17-26 for 191 yards and had 2 interceptions. He'll go up against a Ole Miss secondary that's ranked 2nd in best in the SEC. Meanwhile Texas A&M's defense has been almost embarrassing allowing over 6 yards per carry and too many passing yards. Ole Miss back at home after a tough road schedule while A&M is finally going on the road for only the second time. This could be a rude awakening for A&M that is getting too much hype. Ole Miss can run with senior Jeff Scott and pass with Bo Wallace connecting to one of the best WR duo's int he SEC in Donte Moncarief and Laquon Treadwell. Ole Miss struggled to score in the red zone which really cost them the last two weeks but A&M's defense is allowing 71% TD's there. In the end I think Miss and their no huddle offense has a huge day that not even Johny Manziel can keep up with as Ole Miss will force him into a few mistakes again and come up with a shocking victory on Saturday.

USC -6 4.4* NCAAF POD USC can finally move on after their bye week after firing Lane Kiffin. Ed Orgeron who was the defensive line coach will take over and players have already embraced him and I think we will see a complete 180 from them on Thursday night at home. One of their best defensive players George Uko said, "We're happy to be out here . . . we really like to go to practice . . . it's fun to be out here now . . . it just feels like there's more energy . . . it's lots of little things." That's huge because it did seem like under Kiffin the players just were not playing for him, but make no mistake about it this defense is very good. They held every other team they faced to 14 points or less before allowing 62 last week which I would just say was a bad game for a team that didn't care about their head coach. Now back at home with extra time to prepare for Arizona team that is completely one dimensional with only a running game and I think they'll dominate. Arizona can not pass and only rely on KaDeem Carey at running back, but USC has been stout against the run allowing just 2.85 ypc at home over three games. Arizona's QB BJ Denker is only completing just 50% of his passes, 2 TD and 2 INT as well as 4.9 yards per attempt. USC will be all over the running game here and should force Arizona into third and longs which they are not capable of converting. USC has held opponents to 31% conversions on third down. USC's offense can run the ball coming up with a 6.7 ypc average in their last game and they get some added depth with Silas Redd back. USC is also more capable of passing the ball as Cody Kessler is completing 63% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempts with 6 TD and 4 interceptions. Overall we are getting nice value here because of how badly the defense played for USC in their last game. Now they come home with a new coach who they seem to enjoy playing for and they are facing a defense that just gave up 244 rushing yards in their last game with a one dimensional offense. Trojans win big here.

Titans +3 +105 5.5* NFL POD
This is another reason why I hope you have multiple books to shop because if you are stuck with 2.5 you'd have to buy points, but in this spot I still like the Titans to win outright. Everyone is pointing towards the Chiefs being 4-0 and how quickly people forget how lucky they have been. People will also point to the Titans playing without Jake Locker and it's the exact reasons why the public is pounding the Chiefs again today, but who is Jake Locker anyway. Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly capable of doing everything Locker was doing if not more. His football IQ is up there and he should be able to put the Titans in a position to win today.

Luck plays a lot into betting and if you don't believe me then you were not on my Northwestern +7.5 play yesterday against Ohio State. The Chiefs have been very lucky. They have had the best average field position of any NFL team this season and it's made their offense look rather respectable. Chiefs will have issues picking up first downs today as the Titans are 6th in sack % and 5th in 3rd down conversions allowing just 32% conversions. The Titans have more offensive weapons and as good of a defense and have already put up big numbers vs. very good defenses (see Jets and Texans game). This is absurd that they are under dogs at home after starting 3-1 and I think they'll improve to 4-1 after today.

Michigan State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Michigan State lost a heart breaker in over time at home last year which is something they clearly remember. Now with the solid win for Iowa over a very bad Minnesota team that was over rated to begin with and a Michigan State loss @ Notre Dame with the offense struggling big time. This game is about running the ball and stopping the run with both defenses ranked in the top 10 with solid running games. Connor Cook has to bounce back for Michigan State at QB following his first road test at Notre Dame. I believe Cook will bounce back after a bye week as this kid has plenty of confidence and the arm to make any play on the field. In the bye week he worked a lot on his foot work and I think we will see it early against Iowa. Cook also has taken care of the ball without throwing an INT.

Michigan State sports the better defense in this one and they are a bit more balanced where as Iowa is 9th in the country with a 66% run play call percentage. Michigan State is #2 allowing just 1.9 ypc. Iowa's success running the ball has set up 3rd and short, but against Michigan State they will have to throw the ball which is not going to be easy. This pass defense is better than in years past as they finally have a guy that can get to the QB on his own in Shilique Calhoun. Iowa does not have the receivers to draw penalties like Notre Dame did as Michigan State caught unlucky breaks from the referees. Jake Rudock is going to have a hard time completing anything the way Michigan State plays defense with press coverage and he already has 4 interceptions.

Both defenses have played one quality offensive opponent this year, MSU played Notre Dame while Iowa played Northern Illinois. Michigan State completely dominated the line of scrimmage on the road against Michigan State while Iowa hosted Northern Illinois and allowed 438. What was also hidden in the Notre Dame game was how well this Michigan State offensive line played. They're ranked 20th in least sack% and only allowed 6 hits on Cook. Iowa's front seven is also very good, but with the week of preparation it makes Michigan State a must play as they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Special teams is also an advantage for the Spartans as they feature an All-Big10 punter in Sadler who is great at pinning teams inside the 20.

Over 61 3.3* Play
Utah and UCLA meet late tonight with two balanced offenses that can beat you in the air and on the ground. It's not shocking that UCLA has those capabilities as they did it well last year and returned mostly everyone on offense with a very deep group of receivers led by Shaq Evans. Utah's defense has struggled agaisnt dual threat offenses including Chuckie Keeton from Utah State. Sean Mannion came in here and just threw his way to victory exposing Utah's secondary. UCLA has been excellent on third down converting at nearly 70% and that transitions well int he red zone where they are converting 71% of those opportunities into TD's. Utah is a tough place to play, but UCLA put up big numbers at Nebraska after a slow start. Tonight they don't have to worry about the early start in a different time zone and should be good from the start. Brett Hundley will have another great game tonight and will be getting more hype from NFL scouts.

However, I can't play the spread on this with 70% of the public feeding on the hype they have quickly forgotten UCLA's struggles. Even at Nebraska it seemed like they were going to have troubles stopping their offense. Utah has a better offense and clearly has turned it around with the dual threat Tyler Wilson leading the show. Wilson is bigger, strongers, faster and he's making better decisions than a year ago. It helps when you bring in a great coach to run the offense like Dennis Erickson. Erickson has led a balanced unit and Wilson has been poised all year long. UCLA's secondary is very beatable. They basically had to start over from last year's team that ranked 82nd and so far this season they are not getting as much push up front and creating sacks. Tyler Martinez who is not known for his arm threw 3 TD's and 0 interceptions against UCLA. Utah is not afraid to throw the ball down field and the speedy Dres Anderson should put up a monster game for Utah keeping them in this battle. They can score in the red zone 9-12 at home this year for 75%. UCLA is allowing 62% red zone conversions, but going against a balanced offense on the road will give them more issues. UCLA allowed 75% red zone TD% last year on the road. I see a ton of points here especially with field position being a big issue. Most of the time these punters out kick their coverage especially in the altitude. I bet Shaq Evans runs one back here for UCLA as Utah is allowing 17.20 yards per return. I think both teams will be set up great on field position if their defense is able to make any stops.

In the end I think UCLA gets a close win, but both of these defenses are too agressive and the offenses are smart enough to counter with play action passes especially UCLA who will run that out of the read option offense and come up with big passing plays. Both teams come off a bye, but it won't help their defense. Mora out of the bye last year gave up 43 poitns on the road while Utah gave up 38 points at home after their bye week last year. Both offenses put up big numbers there too and expect them to benefit the most from the extra preparation.

[b]Dolphins +7 +100 4* NFL POD[/b]
The Dolphins have cashed a ton for me this year and I did not expect to get this kind of value here again on Monday night football, but getting a TD against a Saints team that is flawed is something I can't turn down.

The Saints are a one dimensional offense that can be beat with a good pass rush which is something the Dolphins clearly have. The Dolphins are actually also top 10 in some key passing defense categories including opponent completion %, opponent yards per attempt, and opponent QB rating. Now the Saints defense has been great allowing 13 points per game and has been tough to score on in the red zone. However, the Falcons are struggling to find consistency, the Cardinals can't move the chains and the Bucs are also struggling on offense. Those are the three teams the Saints have faced this year and any defense would find success in that situation in my opinion. In come the Dolphins who seem to have the perfect balance of running and passing on offense.

Ryan Tannehill is enjoying a great start to this season ranking 6th in completion percentage and 10th with a 94.3 QB rating. What is most important is he's 3rd in moving the change picking up 50% of his third down attempts, and he's #1 in the red zone orchestrating an offense that succeeds with a TD 87% of the time. The Saints defense will be challenged tonight and they will give up some points. I think the Dolphins will have a shot to win this game because this is the best pass rush Brees sees all year and I don't think the Dolphins are prone to give up the deep quick scores that Brees uses to blow out teams on a Monday night. Close win for the Saints 23-20, but we will cover the spread.

Texans +2 5.5* NFL POD Houston went on the road and looked bad at Baltimore while the Seahawks dominated the Jaguars and 49ers in their last two games. There couldn't be more hype on the Seahawks right now they are covering spreads and dominating teams. We actually had the Panthers in week 1 and should have covered that game against Seattle, but Carolina wasted a lot of opportunities that I don't think Houston will. 60% of the public is backing the Seahawks on the road who still have yet to prove to me that they can win with their QB on the road especially against a top 5 defense which they are about to face on Sunday. Yes the Texans are still a top 5 defense despite all of the points they have given up which have been the result of some bad luck and some poor team play. They gave up a punt return TD and a defensive TD to Baltimore and committed 14 penalties which cost them 14 points and more when you factor in what the penalties did to drives. Being back at home should change that and I think we are getting value on this line because of how they have lost and given up points.

Houston's defense is actually ranked 2nd in yards allowed. Seattle has relied on their defense and their running game will have its hands full vs. Houston's front 7. I still think Houston is better on both sides of the ball this year from their draft pick of Deandre Hopkins and the return on defense of Brian Cushing. In the end this is Arian Foster's game and I'm predicting him to have a big one. The Seahawks allowed 5.2 ypc at Carolina and are ranked 18th on the year and Houston is arguably the best rushing team in the league when they commit to it with Foster and Ben Tate leading the way. I truly believe this is the game the Texans get back to the basics and dominate this game. They have to feel like they are getting slapped in the face being under dogs in their own building. Houston is 19-7 ATS int heir last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Iowa -2 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I have watched all of Minnesota's games this year except one and they have to be the luckiest 4-0 team. We lost ATS in two of those games, but I'm going heavy on Iowa to change that this week. First of all Minnesota has to be able to run the ball to win games and Iowa's run defense is just a perfect match up for us to back, because they are physical enough to shut it down. Iowa is a top 30 run defense right now allowing just 3.36 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground. That has allowed the Iowa defense to be excellent on third down holding opponents to 24% conversions and in the red zone they have only allowed 1 TD on the season for a 16% TD percentage on red zone possessions. Minnesota is a one dimensional offense that won't be able to consistently put up points on the board.

Iowa on the other hand although they have not been great at one thing on offense they have shown at times they can do both. Over the last two games Jake Rudock has gained some confidence completing over 60% of his throws for 4 TD's and 0 INT's. David Fales showed just how leaky Minnesota's secondary is completing 22-35 passes for 439 yards and had a 185 QB rating, but his team just came up with too many mistakes. Iowa has several groups of running backs averaging over 4 yards per carry to balance the attack. They are averaging 50% conversions on third down and they are +2 in turnover margin. Minnesota was not just bad against San Jose State they allowed both UNLV and New Mexico State to complete 70% of their passes. They also allowed UNLV to run for 193 yards averaging 5.68 ypc and Iowa's running game is the best they have seen this year to date.

Rams +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
Wow, the Rams have really been the one team I've backed multiple times that have let me down, but I think this is a make or break game for them and they always seem to play the best at home and Colin Kaepernick is getting figured out around the league. Maybe the game last week against the Colts was a hang over from their tough loss against the division rival Seahawks but usually teams in that scenario show a bit of life late in the game, but the 49ers did not. The last two games he is averaging less than 50% completions and has 0 TD to 4 interceptions. Now he goes into a hostile environment low confidence to face the Rams who had the leagues best pass rush which is about to show up in the loud dome. The Rams already played the 49ers tough last year tying in OT in San Francisco and winning at home in OT 16-13.

49ers are just banged up right now without Vernon Davis the offense has flat out failed. On defense it's a short week of preparation and they go on the road without their best two players in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. Teams do not just turn on a switch and win a big game like this. Over the rest of the season the 49ers will regroup but not tonight. The Rams are still under valued here and if they did not start slow in previous games would have a winning record. I look for them to get a quick start behind the home crowd tonight as Sam Bradford works the spread with precision for an opening possession TD. Rams came out with a big win last year at home on a Thursday night over the Seahawks and I think they show up again tonight.

[b]Virginia Tech +7 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
Virginia Tech nearly lost to both East Carolina and Marshall out of Conference USA so we are getting value in their first game vs. the ACC especially since Georgia Tech had an impressive win over UNC last week and dominated Duke. With Vad Lee at QB they are calling him the "most complete" QB that Paul Johnson has had to run his triple option, but I see a lack of explosive plays with his running game and his 7TD to 1INT are nice passing the ball, but against an FCS opponent and Duke and North Carolina who combine for just 12 sacks and 38 tackles for loss I just don't see them in a 3rd in a long situation where he's going to get pressured. Facing Virginia Tech and Bud Foster's experienced defense will be different for the youngster. Foster's defense already has 16 sacks and 37 tackles for loss led by James Gayle and JR Collins.

Virginia Tech has the experience at linebacker to make the tackles too in Jack Tyler who had 17 tackles in last years match up. This defense is better than last year and I"m still not sold on this Georgia Tech offense behind Lee. Meanwhile an interesting development offensively for Virginia Tech has been the emergence of Chris Mangus who has averaged 6.5 ypc in the running game which has been what this offense has lacked since last year. Mangus can get to the edge and be a game changer. I think he'll get more opportunities tonight to spell Trey Edmunds and he'll make the most of it. UNC rushed for over 4 yards per carry last week and Virginia Tech also has a capable dual threat QB in Logan Thomas. I think this will be an ugly low scoring game, but in the end Bud Foster's defense will force some turnovers from Vad Lee as the inexperienced QB will finally see a capable defense.

[b]Dolphins -1 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
The Dolphins have done nothing but won their first two games on the road and we are still getting value with them, but after this win on Sunday we will no longer get value on the Dolphins. The media really does not talk about them, because QB Ryan Tannehill has not put up numbers like Wilson, RGII or Luck so we have been cashing Dolphins tickets under the radar since last season.

For on this Dolphins defense is good. They were #1 in the red zone last year allowing 42% TD conversions 38% when they were home and they are back at it this year spending their first overall pick on a pass rusher. This defense was also ranked 4th in third down defense and looks to be even better this year. The Falcons obviously are banged up right now on offense with Stephen Jackson out and their two star receivers questionable. I expect both White and Jones to play, but this offensive line has struggled on the road in recent years. I think Miami can keep this Falcons team between 17-24 points much like the Saints did.

Meanwhile the Dolphins offense is vastly improved with Lamar Miller showing a little life last week, but more importantly Ryan Tannehill had 319 yards and is very quietly becoming one of the better QB's in the league. We also saw Mike Wallace show why the Dolphins spent so much money as he put up 9 receptions and 115 yards against the Browns secondary that has been very good in recent years. They also have a tough match up in FB/TE Charles Clay who caught 5 passes for 109 yards last week. The Dolphins are third right now in red zone TD% showing balance and the Falcons has surrendered 350 passing yards in both of their games this year. Expect another big win by this Dolphins group and some actual hype to follow from the media.

Michigan State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; Michigan State +175 1* bonus
Notre Dame won the last two meetings and has Oklahoma up next while Michigan State has a bye. Michigan State has line value here because despite being 3-0 everyone is saying they haven't played anyone and they have struggled at times. Which is true they opened up the year against Western Mich, South Florida and Youngstown State. However, they had weather issues against Western Mich that stopped their offense from moving the ball and they also played the first 2 games like an NFL pre season allowing the position battles to continue into those games which can create a lot of sloppy play and guys looking over their shoulder, but against Youngstown State we saw the offense start to click as Mike Dantonio named his starting QB in Connor Cook with a ton of confidence.

Connor Cook is a confidenct young QB that is often described as fearless which is a good thing to have going on the road to face Notre Dame. Notre Dame's defense has not played well and their defensive line is not getting the pass rush they were supposed to be getting. Michigan State has recruited some speedier players to play on the perimeter especially in the running game and those are the type of players that have plagued Notre Dame to start this season. Cook was 15-22 for 202 yards and 4TD's against Youngstown before being rested and has plenty of confidence going into this game against a Notre Dame team that is struggling to prevent TD's in the red zone allowing 72% TD percentage this should be a game Michigan State wins, because their defense is that good.

Okay, they have not played anyone, but there is no way a struggling Notre Dame running game is going to get going against Michigan State who is just elite against the run and returns 3 senior linebackers including Max Bullough and Denicos Allen. The Irish are ranked 92nd in running the ball so far this season which means they are going to lean heavily on Tommy Rees who is 15-5 as a starter and that's where I'm confident the Spartans will come out on top.
Rees is 11-0 against teams that have finished their season with 6 or more losses, but against teams with 5 or less losses he's just 4-5 with 13 TD and 12 INT's. Those stats continue into this season and it's clear he can beat the bad teams, but not the good ones. Michigan State has arguably the best defense of Dantonio era. He's got 3 upper classmen in the secondary. I mentioned the experience at linebacker and finally they have a guy that can rush the passer which has been missing from Spartan defenses in the past. Shilique Calhoun is a hell of an athlete and he will lead the pass rush along with Denicos Allen from the linebacking spot which will create turnovers from Tommy Rees. The Spartans so far this year have allowed 34.6% completion percentage and 15.5% third down conversions and should not be phased by coming to Notre Dame because they have been here plenty of times before. Rees started the season facing the 75th, 76th and 113th ranked pass defenses and now he faces Michigan State that was 7th last year and 6th this year. Michigan State was also 3rd in opponent QB rating last year and is 1st this year. The real difference is sack % they were 87th last year and so far they are ranked 13th.

[b]Boise State +4 3.3* Friday Night Showdown[/b]
Fresno State should be rusty in this game after getting their game postponed last week due to flooding in Colorado. The week before they played against Cal Poly and they opened in a barn burner against Rutgers. I don't see why all of a sudden this team should be favored against Boise State. Fresno State's defense has had a hard time getting off the field already this season allowing 6.09 yards per carry to Rutgers and allowing 172 rushing yards to Cal Poly. Boise comes in with a solid rushing game behind Jay Ajayi, but more importantly the Boise State offense is perfectly balanced with a veteran QB and a veteran solid group of receivers led by QB Joe Southwick and WR Matt Miller. Boise is running the ball 51% of the time and having plenty of success as Ajayi ran for 4TD's a week again against Air Force. Joe Southwick added an impressive 27-29 performance throwing for 287 yards and he's super accurate leading back to last year where he finished the year completing 70% of his passes over the final 4 games. Anyway you look at it he's a better QB than Rutgers Gary Nova who had 5 TD and 348 yards against Fresno State in week 1. Rutgers offense was ranked 106th last year in total yards and shredded the Fresno defense. Boise has the balanced attack to keep them on their toes and should be able to move the ball and score.

On the flip side Fresno is led by a one dimensional game and a very good QB in Derek Carr. However, they have yet to have a 100 yard rusher and Derek Carr has not played well against Boise in his career. We still don't know much about this team and I think this spread is very much inflated due to the fact that they put up 50+ points on a Rutgers defense that was excellent last year, but Rutgers defense was gutted only returning 3 starters and Boise is only going to get better on this side of the ball. Sure Washington put up big numbers, but playing at Washington (who had revenge from their bowl loss against Boise) is a different story than playing at Fresno where Boise has had a ton of success. The Boise secondary has had an interception in every game and I think that will be a key difference in this game. The fact that Fresno is also one dimensional will allow Boise to make some third down and red zone stops. I'll take the road team here tonight because Fresno has not done anything to impress me and I think Boise has enough on offense to win this game.

Chiefs +3.5 -115 4.5* NFL POD The Eagles have not proven anything yet and it looks more and more like this offense can be good against the bad defenses but what will they do against good defenses like the Chiefs? The Chiefs shutout the Jaguars and the Cowboys (a prolific offense) had a tough time moving the ball on them. Andy Reid should also be fully motivated in this game against his ex team and he knows more about most of these players than Chip Kelly. The Chiefs offense really has not been explosive yet but they are starting to find their way and getting to face the Eagles defense that has struggled already (we saw it vs. the Chargers and in the 2nd half against the Redskins) should allow for some points to be scored. I'll gladly take the more experienced coach and better defense in this spot even if they are on the road. The Eagles offense when it scores scores to fast and it really hurts their defense. When the offense fails and we have seen some of the defenses catch up throughout a game well then the defense is also put in the same position. Alex Smith has done nothing but when as a starting QB in recent seasons and he'll continue to play with a chip on his shoulders and avoid the turnovers while Michael Vick will turn it over a few times tonight.

[b]NC St +14.5 Bovada 3.3* play[/b]
NC State has defeated a top 10 team the last two years on their home field and now they get to do it again at home on ESPN with millions watching. How can they do it? Well they have one of the ACC's deepest defensive lines that should stay fresh this entire game and pay dividends in covering this spread. They are led by defensive end Art Norman who has been a handful for any defense. Clemson's last real game was on 8/31 same as NC State, but NC State has been preparing for this game all summer and I like what Dave Doereen has been saying this week. He's watched all of Clemson's games from last year and this year and I think he's smart enough to put together a plan that will allow them to compete. Doereen came over from Northern Illinois where he was 22-6 as the head coach and never lost a home game.

I also think we get some line value on this line with roughly 70% of the public betting on Clemson based on their Georgia win where they did allow 222 yards on their home field. I think NC State can find a lot of success running the ball with their deep group of running backs. Part of the high public play is due to the fact that NC State before the bye week nearly lost to Richmond, but it was clear they were not showing anything and that they were preparing for this game. They also had 4 turnovers inside the red zone that definitely did not show how they played. Matt Canada is a smart offensive coordinator that has an extra week and he'll mix tempo and no huddle to avoid Clemson subbing players. Canada was responsible for leading the Wisconsin offense last year after three QB changes so he knows a thing or two about game plans. NC State is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home vs. a winning road team.

[b]Giants +4.5 4.4* play[/b]
I see tremendous value on the Giants here based on what happened last week. Both teams played with the National spot light and came up with different results. Broncos dazzled with Peyton Manning tossing 7 TD's and scoring 49 points while the Giants embarrassed themselves with 6 turnovers. The Giants still only lost by 5 points being -5 in the turnover department. There is definitely a market over reaction in this spot so I'll take the extra points with the Gmen.

If you watched the Broncos game the Ravens had a 17-14 lead in the third quarter and Ravens head coach did not challenge a clear drop which resulted in a first down and later a TD that changed the entire game. I was not overly impressed by the Broncos the seemed ordinary on both sides of the ball and their offensive line is really shaky and could be in for a long day against the Giants front.

Meanwhile the Giants offensive line looked sharp and Eli Manning was able to move the ball against the Cowboys. The Broncos did not resign their best defensive linemen and Von Miller is out on suspension so Eli should get a lot of time and the secondary of the Broncos is not very good either. I'll take the points here with the Giants and hope they have corrected their turnover issues.

5.5** NFL POD Guaranteed 9% ROI on NFL POD's in Career TB Bucs +3.5 -115 5.5* NFL POD
The Saints come off a game that was their big division game to open the year, almost a must win and now they have a let down on the road against the Bucs. The Saints have not played well on the road and it was an emotional win in week 1 with Sean Payton returning. The Bucs were #1 against the run and they have obviously upgraded their secondary. I don't think Tampa played as bad as it seemed against the Jets in the loss they just got unlucky and this team should be hungry to rebound.

Meanwhile the Saints were 29th in sack % and they were lucky to play the Falcons who have arguably the worst offensive line in the game. They also were last in QB rating in road games allowing 109 QB rating and were last in rushing ypc against and allowed 6.3 ypc last week. Look for Doug Martin to have a big game and I also think Vincent Jackson should be able to have a big game especially since Josh Freeman should have plenty of time as the Saints are without two defensive tackles and are also banged up at linebacker and in the secondary. The Saints are a much fade on the road but they get a big number on the road because the public will gladly back them after the Bucs lost to the Jets last week and looked bad doing so.. I see the Bucs rebounding here in a big home win.

TCU -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
TCU had a really challenging opening week against LSU, but they held their own considering they shuffeled between two QB's, but now Pachal's out againa and it's Trevor Boykin's job again which I like it makes this offense more dynamic with ability to run (585 rushing yards last year). Boykin had a great game vs. Tech last year 330+ yards passing 4 passing TD's. However TCU turned the ball over 3 times, but still hung in there but only to lose 56-53 in 3 OT's. Revenge is sweet and I think Garry Patterson did a terrif job last year with a young inexperienced roster that had a lack of depth. The team actually was 5-1 on the road beat two ranked teams in their own building. That shows just how good this team can be moving forward now that they return 16 starters. Wayman James is back again who has averaged 7.6 ypc since 2011 and pairing him with Boykin is a scary thought. I think TCU can run wild against Tech tonight.

Meanwhile Texas Tech has had a ton of success with walk on freshmen Baker Mayfield, but that was against SMU and SF Austin. Now they face TCU and Gary Patterson who obviously will have a better game plan than last year. Mayfield has had a daylight behind a new offensive line in his first two games, but now he'll play a defensive line that features Devonte Fields who was the Big 12 defensive player of the year. TCU also returns all 5 of their guys in the secondary including Jason Vervett. I expect them to play man and agressive against Mayfield who won't have time to get to his third progression. This should result in turnovers and sweet revenge in Texas Tech's backyard.

Chargers +4.5 5.5* NFL POD
The biggest public play of the week is on the Texans on Monday night football game 2 which will include tons of parlays and teasers etc. Vegas has the public right where they want them, but I'm not falling for it even though backing the Chargers will take a lot of convincing. I think the Chargers did fix a lot of their issues including drafting an offensive linement in the first round and signing 3 more as free agents to help protect Phillip Rivers. This will be the first step and on national tv I think the Chargers will be up to make a statement in the last game of week 1. I'm not saying they will win and they may lose in blow out fashion, but I just can't see laying the road chalk with a Texans team that everyone is picking to get to the AFC Championship game.

The Texans have been a team that really does not blow other teams out in the past and although they were a good road team last year their wins on the road were not by much. Chargers weakness on defense comes in the secondary, but they have a strong pass rush and front 7 that can stop the rush ranking 5th a year ago. Chargers have plenty of talent at WR despite injuries as they still have a healthy Antonio Gates, Vincent Brown, Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal and newly drafted Cal star Keenan Allen. Phillip Rivers is a firey competitor that has been stuck in a stale Norv Turner run offense for years. I think the off season changes have lit the fire again and he would love nothing better than to upset the Texans as a heavy home dog. I really like the coaching changes on the Chargers side with Mike McCoy as the head man and the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt. These guys have been scheming and coming up with a game plan for months against the Texans. The Texans have not shined on Monday night and I believe they struggle again here as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.

[b]Panthers +3 5.5* NFL POD[/b]
All the hype has been on the Seahawks this entire off season and many are picking them to actually win the Super Bowl, but Cam Newton and the Panthers have been listening and I think they come up with a big win here today. The Panthers closed 2012 with 4 consecutive wins and were -1 favorites in last years match up. I don't see any drastic changes that would move this line 4 points other then the fact that the public loves the Seahawks and so do the media. People forget the Seahawks are more of a home team. They went 3-5 on the road last year and their wins were by 6 and 4 and of course the blow out of a disinterested Bills team. I expect Cam Newton to have a huge game as he really needs to step up this year.

South Carolina +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I honestly think everything is going right for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks right now as they not only get a couple of extra days to prepare for this game having played on Thursday but they get Georgia who comes off a physical and emotional loss where they lost to Clemson and lost their best receiver in Malcolm Mitchell which now takes away 40% of Aaron Murray's targets last year when you add in they lost Tavarres King. South Carolina actually beat Clemson at the end of last year 27-17 and South Carolina is actually 5-0 ATS the last 3 years when they have had extra time to prepare in the regular season.

What else is going right? The media has seriously pumped up Jadeveon Clowney after all but elminating him from the Heisman discussion and ripping him for taking plays off. I see this as an opportunity for Clowney to have a big impact on the game and the fact that Murray has one less target that he's used to throwing to should allow South Carolina to be just that much more aggressive. What was also lost in their win against UNC was Bruce Ellington being limited and TE Buster Anderson returning for this game to give Connor Shaw a target over the middle to go along with the speed he has on the outside. The speed is something South Carolina is not used to having but with Shaq Rolland and Dariene Byrd this receiving corps is better than what Georgia is used to seeing. That's a major issue because a defense returning just 3 defensive starters that allowed the Gamecocks to run for 230 yards a year ago will now have to think twice about stacking the box.

In the running game Mike Davis also has more home run speed than Marcus Lattimore had and Brandon Wilds forms a nice punch as the more physical runner along with Shaw as a runner too. I don't think Georgia's defense is ready for this and South Carolina's offensive line is just too big and physical averaging 322 lbs they will wear down on Georgia's front once again on route to victory as Steve Spurrier seems to own Richt going 3-0 int he last 3. Overall Spurrier is 15-5 vs. Georgia who allowed 6 200 yards rushing games last year. Georgia has some nice RB's in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, but South Carolina got smaller and more speedy in their line backing corps and I think they should be able to handle it even on the road to get the win.

LA Lafayette +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
The Rajin Cajuns are the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference behind the best player in the Sun Belt in Terrance Broadway. Broadway combined for 26 total TD's nearly 3,000 passing yards and nearly 1,000 rushing yards. He's a dual threat that almost defeated Florida at the swamp last year. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and Mark Hudspeth is a very under rated head coach. This is an explosive and balanced attack with a nice running back in Alonzo Harris who averaged 5.2 ypc, but also runs with conviction at 6-1 and 220 lbs. Broadway also avoid the sack nicely ranking 18th in fewest sack% but even less on the road which shows maturity. On defense 6 the top 8 linebackers return which will be crucial against Arkansas team that only returns 4 offensive starters.

Arkansas lost a lot of guys and then they hired Brett Bielema who now can show off how good of a coach he is in the best conference It will not be a quick turn around as Arkansas receivers are completely depleted losing 57% of their graduates as well as 3 key injuries in the off season. That means they will lean on the running game because they are also breaking in a new QB and Bielema loves to runt eh ball, but the offensive line is breaking in 3 new offensive linemen. Arkansas should be able to move the ball on the ground, but when they get in the red zone they will struggle. Lafayette has the linebackers to make life difficult and Arkansas with a top 20 offensive line, big running back and top receiver a year go could not finish drives so I'm not sure how they'll do it in their first game without those resources. In the end Arkansas is rebuilding while Lafayette is still playing in the now and would love a big win over an SEC team.

SMU +4.5 3.3* NCAAF POD
SMU only returns 12 starters (6 on each side), but I think this match up favors them as Texas Tech only returns 5 starters on offense. Hal Mumme takes over as the new offensive coordinator and will run his air raid offense which is very similar to the offense this unit ran a year ago and going up against a Texas Tech secondary that graduated a lot of experience that rarely forced turnovers. Texas Tech also has issues at linebacker size and you can certainly run on them, but more importantly the front 7 was 91st in sack% which means SMU should be able to run their offense without worrying about getting sacked.

Garret Gilbert returns for his senior year and should have a chip on his shoulder. He did not play that well last year and was once a highly touted recruit at Texas, but he's got some weapons on the outside and this unit should be able to move the ball at home against a below average defense on Friday night. Gilbert just can't turn the ball over and facing the Red Raiders it's likely he won't. Texas Tech meanwhile has a new QB and new offensive line and a new head coach. A lot changes and it's a lot to ask to go on the road on a Friday night and win especially when your strength is passing the ball and SMU return all 4 starters from last year including Kenneth Acker and Chris Parks one of the better duos in the nation. They were 20th in opponent completion % despite being 86th in sack %. This unit was also 23rd in takeaways and I think that will be the difference on Friday night.

S. Carolina -11.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If you read my SEC College Football Preview & Odds article you'll know I'm very high on South Carolina. Everyone is raving about Jadeveon Clowney but they forget Connor Shaw missed a lot of time last year and returns. The Gamecocks have not lost a game at home as a double digit favorite since 2004 and I don't anticipate it Thursday night. In fact I see them dominating from start to finish with Shaw playing like he has a chip on his shoulder. He knows he can't take anything for granted with his injury history and he's said several times this off season they can't look past UNC who has a very good QB of their own in Bryan Renner, but the strengths and weaknesses for both teams put South Carolina in a huge advantage.

First of all UNC's defense lacks edge pressure and they are weak at linebacker up the middle leaving them vulnerable up the gut which is the very spot the Gamecocks will look to attack. South Carolina is very strong up front with 4 returning offensive linement, but their weakness is speed rushers which North Carolina does not have this year. UNC actually runs an odd 4-2-5 scheme but they lack the pieces including the BANDIT which is the key position. So what happens is teams like this get pushed and that's what I think will happen on Thursday night. The running game will set up the passing game for Connor Shaw and South Carolina has a lot of speed and athleticism at receiver that should take advantage of UNC's talented secondary because Shaw will have time and he can also create plays with his feet.

UNC comes in with a rebuilt offensive line with 3 new starters. This team also lost their top running back which won't be an issue by season end but I don't see them being able to run against South Carolina who allowed just 2.6 ypc at home. The Gamecocks are vulnerable against the run but we won't know it on Thursday since they are home and facing a team with a new offensive line. Renner will likely turn to the passing game at some point which won't be a good idea with the pass rushing skills South Carolina has with Clowney and senior Chaz Sutton. North Carolina had a terrific season last year offensively which is why they are getting a ton of respect with this line, but they really did not have any tough road games like this. Their up tempo spread attack will have issues against a good pass rush.

Ravens +4 5.5* NFL POD; U48 3.3* Bonus
Honestly this game to me comes down to a coin flip. You can read my blog articles to get my feeling on all the break downs and match ups if you need more betting confidence. I see tremendous value on getting more than a FG in this game where the battles seem to be very even to me. A few things do stick out especially what Baltimore has had to do to get to this point and who they beat to get here, but overall I think the Ravens will be in position to win this game. They have a more experienced QB in Joe Flacco who does not get rattled by anything and wants to prove he's an elite QB so he can get paid in the off season. There is potentially millions riding on this game for Flacco and the Ravens should be able to put together a gameplan on defense to stop this hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick. If I am wrong I'll tip my cap to him, but I think with two weeks to prepare the Ravens will be ready.

Some interesting advantages for Baltimore are special teams and red zone efficiency. First ofa ll nobody missed more FG's than David Akers this year. They were 31st in FG %, and he's only 50% over the last three games. Meanwhile Baltimore is 100% in the post season and 5th overall with a 91.43%. Both teams are similar in third down conversion offense and defense and have played similar teams, but the real difference comes in the red zone.

Not only are the Ravens finally healthy but they are dominating opponents in the red zone and good ones at that. They've held the last three opponents to 40% TDs in the red zone and two of those teams were ranked 3rd and 6th overall. Baltimore is 2nd overall and with the 49ers not having many options at WR and Baltimores ability to not allow TD's to TE (2 all year) I love their chances of continuing this success. The 49ers on the other hand well they were ranked 27th in the regular season and allowed 72% conversions in the red zone on the road. They've had issues stopping opposing TE's in the zone and the Ravens have a good one in Pitta and some could even say Anquan Boldin is like a TE. Offensively Baltimore has converted 80% of their red zone chances but they will also stretch the field with Torrey Smith. San Francisco was ranked just 15th in red zone offense. Kaepernick is going to have to make plays in the red zone and he doesn't even have a full season under his belt. There is a lot he has not seen in the NFL and I'm sure Baltimore will have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Falcons +4 5.5* NFL POD; Falcons +185 3* play; U49.5 2.2* play
So it seems hard to find anyone to be on the Falcons, but I am once against this week. Everyone thinks what the 49ers did to the Packers is going to happen again. I think the public is over reacting to one game here. For one the 49ers unleashed their pistol package running out of it 45% of the time in that game while they ran just 7 times in the last two games of the season. The Falcons should be able to put a game plan together that can defend against it. After all Colin Kaepernick is not that experienced playing in this type of environment. I look for the Falcons to bring their safeties up and also blitz the 49ers quite a bit trying to force Kaepernick into mistakes. The 49ers have struggled at times on the road and particularly in domes where they were just 1-2 this year. There are many reasons for that and one of them is their pass protections still is not very good ranked 28th on the season in sack% allowed while the Falcons are ranked 7th and Matt Ryan was not sacked a single time against the Seahawks who have a pretty good pass rush in their own right.

I think the banged Smith's on the DL will finally catch up to this team on the road this week. Much of the public was on the Packers last week and now many are running to bet on them given how the Falcons almost gave up their big lead to Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do face a stiff task against the 49ers, but the 49ers are facing the best group of receivers they have all year long and you can not forget about the TE. Tony Gonzalez is still getting it done and there were only 6 teams that gave up more TD's to TE's this year than the 49ers. That should be a huge key here as the 49ers just were not very good in the red zone on the road. In fact they were dead last allowing 79% TD's in the red zone. The Falcons on the other hand were ranked 5th on the season allowing 46.81% TD's in the red zone and the 49ers offense only scoring 48% TD's in the red zone on the road.

That's another reason why I like the under in this game despite the total going over 15-4-1 in the last 10 years in championship games. But I think this total is quite high considering the Falcons have only allowed 1 team to score more than 30 points all year long. The 49ers usually came back with a dud after scoring more than 30 points or more this season including a combined 29 points after BUF/NO/NE. I'm not suggesting that will happen again here, but playing on the road in a dome in a loud environment is no easy task for a first year QB. Don't expect to see what we saw last week as I can see the Falcons holding on for a win.

Falcons -2.5 5.5** NFL POD
Originally I liked the Seahawks, but upon further research this is just a bad bad match up for them. First of all it's not easy traveling all the way back west and then coming all the way back to play a game where your body feels like it's 10AM. Then you have to play a team that has to be hungrier than ever led by Matt Ryan who has not won a playoff game but is due for a big one.

The Falcons have handled good running teams all year despite being among the worst to stop it from a ypc aspect. They went 5-1 against teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc. That's because they get out to early leads forcing opponents to pass the ball. The Seahawks have passed the ball significantly more on the road as it is and they fell behind quick to the Redskins and were probably lucky that RG III was not 100%. I see the Seahawks coming out a little flat in this game and it doesn't help that they have not faced many elite QB's this year. They only faced three in my mind in New England, Green Bay and Detroit. They got lucky in both New England and Green Bay in home games and then lost to a bad Detroit team in a dome on the road. Their defense also only went up against 2 teams in the top 9 in sack %. Matty Ryan is 7th only sacked 4.35% of his drop backs and they have more weapons than all of the 3 previously mentioned teams on the outside.

Speaking of domes. Russell Wilson has not fared well this year. He's been great at home and even really good on the road over his last three games, but he played two road games in domes this year and in those games he lost both and threw 4 interceptions to just 2 TD's. If the Falcons can get up early they can ride their crowd in this one and I really think they will come out firing on all cylinders early to control this game and finally get a win. This team was different this year getting big wins when I thought they wouldn't and I'm very confident being on the Falcons side in this game.

Ravens +10 -125 5** NFL POD Ravens +330 0.5* play
Call me crazy, but I even think the Ravens could win this game. They are healthy for the first time all season on defense and we saw that last week when they kept the Colts out of the end zone. Peyton Manning is 9-0 in his last 9 vs. the Ravens and he'll have his fun today, but historically he has not played well in his first game after a bye week. First of all I think the bye week is over rated unless you have a ton of injuries. Why? Well it's not like you get to prepare for one team for 2 weeks. You don't know who your opponent is and for a team like Denver that was red hot on a big winning streak of 11 to close out the season this is the last thing I would think they wanted. Since 1990 teams with 8+ game winning streaks to close a season and had a bye are just 3-16 ATS when they are laying more than 3 points in that first game.

Manning also has not been his usual elite self and this time he won't have the benefit of playing in a dome. In his career he has had 4 byes and those teams averaged 27 points. In that first playoff game Manning's offense only averaged 19.5 points more than a TD difference from his season average. So you tell me did the bye really allow Manning an advantage over the competition?

Next Denver backers are claiming how elite their run defense is. They are #2 in run defense efficiency allowing just 3.6 ypc, but they faced just 3 teams in the top 10 and 2 of those 3 games were against the Chiefs who obviously were coming from behind throwing it more. If Baltimore can get up early in this game and continue to lean on the run Denver could have big problems. Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice are as good as any combo in this league averaging 4.9 ypc in their last 3 games and Caldwell seems to remember how to run the ball rushing it around 56% of the time over their last three games. If Denver gets a 2 TD lead then we can forget about it. The last thing the Ravens want is to let Joe Fluco, yes I said Fluco throwing the ball with their offensive line protecting him against the #2 sack % team in the league in Denver.

Notre Dame +10 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love this match up and though I don't believe either team was as good as the media has glorified them this will be a better match up than last year. I went over extensively each team's resume to take a look at their statistical rankings and who they faced. Notre Dame faced 10 bowl teams along the way while Alabama faced 7 bowl teams. Neither one of those teams opponents had winning records in bowl games if you can believe it. The weak teams on Alabama's schedule are far weaker than the ones on Notre Dames schedule as Alabama has even played a FCS school while Notre Dame has not. At the end of the day here is how I see this game.

Both teams are in tops in rushing play % and both are successful at doing so with Notre Dame ranking 34th in rushing play% and 21st in rushing play %. They did it against an average run defense (ypc) of 59.9 and faced 5 top 50 run defenses along the way averaging 4.31 ypc in those games. Alabama's rushing offense is a bit better and they run the ball more ranking 16th with a 61% run play call. They were 9th in ypc average against an average run defense (ypc) of 58 (similar to Notre Dame). They faced 7 top 50 run defenses and averaged 5.10 ypc although I think many could argue based on how Georgia played down the stretch that they were not a top 50 run defense but in fact they ranked 50th (they played two FCS foes), so I believe the numbers are a bit skewed, but even so both teams are good at running the ball. Notre Dame is very under rated they have a QB that's mobile and can run along with 3 other options at tailback including Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick (who has SEC speed). George Atkinson is also in the mix and might be the fastest player on the field tonight (you'll see him on kick off returns).

On the flip side rushing defense numbers were similar. Alabama showed some holes down the stretch allowing 3.5 ypc, but they went up against 5 top 50 programs and held them to 2.97 ypc while Notre Dame who was ranked 12th overall in ypc allowed went up against 4 top 50's and held them to 3.59 ypc. I believe both teams can have success running the ball here. Notre Dame is not used to being run on ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rushing %, and I think Alabama won't do what they did last year by throwing the ball instead of passing. I believe Nick Saban thinks he can wear down Notre Dame because of this fact, but to me that won't result in Alabama covering the spread because Notre Dame is still very under rated with their front led by Tuit, Nix, and Lewis-Moore. This was a team that was #1 in red zone defense by a far margin only allowing 24% TD's that's compared to Alabama who allowed 51.85%. So now onto the passing games.

Everett Golson got better each week while all AJ McCarron did was be #2 in the nation in QB rating. However, Golson faced better pass defenses. I did the math and McCarron went up against opposing pass defenses ranked 76th in completion % defense, and 72nd in opposing QB rating on average. While Golson went up against 61st and 40th respectively. Golson does not have gaudy numbers but he brings a different element to the game being a mobile passer. Alabama was 9th in sack % this year but they went up against an average 72nd ranked QB protection unit. Notre Dame is actually 35th in pass protection and Golson was only sacked 1% over his last 3 games. Alabama was 92nd in sack % and that's why they run the ball so much. McCarron is great when the running game is working, but when it's not and he's forced to pass the Bama offensive line is not as good as advertised in protecting him. That's probably why he struggled against the 3 good defenses on his schedule. Vs. LSU, A&M, and Georgia. McCarron did not play crazy good only completing 58% of his passes, 636 yards and 3 TD while throwing 3 INT. If we take a look at Golson against good pass defense teams and he faced plenty of elite pass defense teams in Michigan State, Stanford, and Oklahoma (29th in pass defense), He did not make mistakes 2 TD and 0 INT. I won't be shocked to see him play better than McCarron in that department and that's the way Notre Dame has won all year. Red Zone defense and make the other QB to make a mistake. It will be a major challenge for them, but I think 10 points is far far too many.

[b]Arkansas State -3+100 4** POD[/b]
Kent State will come into this game with their head coach despite him taking a job to coach Purdue. He has been doing two jobs this time, but he said his main goal was to win a bowl game and a MAC championship. He came up close but failed against Northern Illinois and now I think he falls short here against Arkansas State, who may just be the best team they have faced all year long. Arkansas State just has more balance offensively with Ryan Aplin at QB and David Oku at RB compared with Kent State which is a run first team led by dynamic Dri Archer.

Kent States defense is led and reliant on creating mistakes. They have forced 38 on the year and they have 33 sacks, but the problem in this game is Ryan Aplin, the best QB that Kent State has faced all year does not get sacked ranking 19th in fewest sack % and he does not turn the ball over completing 67.7% of his throws and only 4 interceptions while throwing for 23 TDs. Arkansas States defense really played well down the stretch in the red zone holding opponents to 30% TD
s over their last 4 while their offense was scoring at over an 80% clip. Their offense is more balanced than Kent State as I mentioned ranking 14th in third down conversion percentage while Kent State was 86th and only coverted 32% over their last 3 games. Spence Keith is known for turning the ball over for Kent State and I dont think this team can win this game unless they win the turnover battle in a big way, but I dont think it will happen tonight.

4.5** pod

Bengals +4.5

[b]Pittsburgh +3.5 4.4** ncaaf play of the day[/b]
Well look here maybe the Big East is not nearly as bad as everyone thought. Or maybe Florida was just not motivated to play in the Sugar Bowl. I doubt it, and now the Big East 4-0 vs. the SEC and I think they get another favorable match up here with Pitt having an excellent defense playing inspired football down the stretch. While they lost to Louisville, Syracuse, and Cinci this year they beat a good Rutgers team in dominant fashion. They were also minutes away from beating Notre Dame on their own field but ended up losing by 3. Tino Sunseri has come a long way under Paul Chryst who was the Wisconsin OC for years. It seems Sunseri fixed his issues of throwing interceptions he has just 2 on the season with 19 TDs and has over 3,000 yards thats better than Mississippi's Bo Wallace who threw 15 interceptions and for less yards. I also think despite what the stats say that Pitt has the better running back in Ray Graham. Dont believe me, Graham rushed for 172 yards on 24 carries on Notre Dames elite run defense. Though Miss faced several tough opponents in the SEC they struggled vs. teams that could pass the ball. I think Pitt shows a lot here with Chryst staying on to coach despite all the rumors hes not going anywhere and this team will finally have their head coach for a bowl game unlike the last two years.

Texas AM -3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
This is a rematch of a game last year in Oklahoma where Oklahoma won being +3 in turnover margin. Texas AM has actually lost 8 of their last 9 vs. Oklahoma but I'm confident they'll reverse that here today against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. First off Oklahoma is going ot have a very hard time being 100th in the league allowing over 5 yards per carry going up against A&M who has 4 rushing threats that all average 4.7 ypc or greater including the Heisman winner Johny Manziel.

Their offensive line averages 25lbs more than Oklahoma's weak defensive line. A&M is also 4th in plays per game and like to push the tempo and that's just going to be bad news for an Oklahoma front that lacks any depth on the line and there is a reason their top 4 tacklers are all defensive backs.

On the flip side many could argue that Oklahoma is just as good at passing the ball and A&M ranking 83rd in pass yards allowed are just as bad as Oklahoma is at stopping the run, but I differ. Oklahoma hardly played any other teams that could get to the QB which is a huge reason they are 6th in fewest sack %. A&M is 35th at getting to the QB and Oklahoma faced only two teams better which was Notre Dame who beat them on their own field and Kansas State who also beat them on their own field. In fact Kansas State seems like a spitting image of what Texas A&M is and likes to do but only better and more capable of putting up points. A&M is also 39th in opposing QB rating and once again Oklahoma only faced two better in Notre Dame in TCU which their offense strugled against averaging 16.5pts which won't get it done in this game.

Kansas St +8.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Many thought this was going to be the national championship. This game is an interesting because these are two teams that love to run the ball first with Oregon ranking 9th running it 64.25% of the time and Kansas State 12th at 62.8%. Both these teams are also ranked 1 and 2 in points per play with Kansas State being #1. Kansas State is used to playing teams that push the pace facing 6 other teams in the top 25 in points per play while Oregon only played one other which gives you some perspective on the offenses these two defenses have faced.

Kansas State likes to run their offense and hold onto the ball ranking 120th while Oregon is 6th in plays per game, but as mentioned both are good at running the ball, but who is better at stopping it? Kansas State is the answer they are ranked 27th allowing 3.7 ypc, but take out the Baylor game and they would allow just 3.25ypc compared to Oregon who is ranked 63rd allowing 4.2 ypc. Kansas State faced an average opponent ranked 50th in ypc rushing while Oregon faced much weaker competition averaging 65th. Despite that he allowed 200+ 4 times and allowed over 4 ypc 7 times. While Kansas State against better rushing offenses allowed 200+ 1 time and 4.0ypc 2 times.

I think we have already proven that the Big 12 was stronger than the Pac 12 this year as they are 2-0 SU and ATS in head to head match ups this season. Overall the Big 12 is already 5-2 while the Pac 12 is just 2-4. Chip Kelly is just 1-2 in bowl games in his career. Defenses seemed to be able to prepare for this style of offense.

Wisconsin +7 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
This may not be a truly sexy match up as many anticipated before the year started, but this game is going to be one of the better played games in my opinion. For Stanford it is business as usual the team only lost twice in a controversial OT game against Notre Dame and in a weird Thursday night game in Washington. For Wisconsin they started the year slow fired some coaches rebounded before dominating in the Big Ten Championship drubbing Nebraska by the score of 70-31 to come into the Rose Bowl with a ton of momentum. Wisconsin however is without their head coach who moved on, but taking over is former Wisconsin head coach Barry Alvarez. Alvarez is trying to become the first coach to win a Rose Bowl in three different decades, but here is a look at each team's scheme.

Wisconsin's Scheme:
This is pretty obvious that Wisconsin wants to run the ball. They were 6th in the nation in rushing play % with a 65.9%. They'll go up against a Stanford defense that prides itself on stopping the run and was ranked 3rd overall in rushing yards allowed. Wisconsin however only faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 25 in rushing offenses. They went 3-1 in those games with none of them being decided by more than a TD. Wisconsin could have several wrinkles in this game that could throw Stanford off guard. James White may spell the QB and run out of the wild cat and when they do decide to throw the ball it will be to Jared Abbrederis who is the best receiver on the field and could take over this game if both run defenses hold up. However, Stanford despite giving up a lot of yardage to QB's has been great at limiting them to just yards and not TD's allowing just 114 QB rating and 12 TD's and 14 interceptions. Now let's take a look at Stanford's scheme to see if they are a mortal lock to win this game.

Stanford's Scheme:
Much like the Badgers the Cardinals love to run the ball ranking 35th in rushing play %. Over the last 3 games though they ran even more and that resulted in a Pac 12 Championship. They to went through some growing pains at the QB position before settling on Kevin Hogan who is only a freshmen, but played lights out converting 73% of his throws. Stanford however will have its hands full going against a top 15 defense that can stop the run and the pass. Wisconsin really only struggled stopping the run against Nebraska. Take that game out and this unit was ranked 10th nationally allowing just 3.10 ypc. Stanford runs a pro style offense and may have to turn to Hogan to win this game which he's fully capable of doing as we saw in the Pac 12 Championship.

At the end of the day neither team has been known for getting blown out. Their defenses are just too strong, but I think what we saw from UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game is a sign of things to come. Wisconsin plays physical running ball and Monte Ball will have a nice game. On the outside Wisconsin has more of a passing threat with Abbrederis and a better pass defense while their rushing offense has been better too. LB Mike Taylor and Chris Borland will dominate on defense for Wisconsin.

Iowa State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay, so these teams met in week 1 and Tulsa lost..Normally I'd lean toward the revenge factor, but these teams are totally different at this point in the season. I think Tulsa is content winning their conference championship. Meanwhile you have Paul Rhoads coaching this team as a blue collar bunch. They play a gritty style of football that is hard not to root for and back.

The difference in this game is going to be Iowa State's defense despite missing Jake Knott they will be able to concentrate on the run as Tulsa is a one dimensional offense. Iowa State faced many offenses this season that could throw and pass the ball. Iowa State turned to a freshman QB late in the season that provided a spark in Sam Richardson. Richardson did face some weak pass defenses, but I think his ability to avoid the rush will allow him to win this game along with his talented groups of running backs.

Lions +3 -105 5.25* NFL POD/ Lions +145 2* play;
The Lions are desperate for some sort of positive energy to close out the season and beating the Bears and knocking them out of the playoffs would be just that thing. Honestly the Bears don't deserve to be road favorites at this point. They have lost 5 of 7 games and even though the Lions have been unable to beat this team and have lost 7 straight themselves they are a team that can beat any team in the NFL. The last match up they dominated against the Bears sacking Cutler 5 times and holding him to 150 yards passing. The difference was Cutler made no mistakes and the Lions turned the ball over 4 times. In the end the game was still there for the Lions despite their poor play as they lost 13-7. That all happened in Chicago and now this game being in Detroit with Matt Forte banged up. I just see the Lions being able to get over the hump with something to look forward to next year.

Texas +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before I get into all the stats I have some key stats about Texas and Oregon State and who they played. Oregon State faced 4 top 50 rushing offenses and 3 top 50 passing offenses on the year and overall that led to a very good defensive statistical season, and on paper it appears that they have the better defense than Texas however I don't believe that's the case. Texas had to face many balanced offenses in Big 12 play as they faced off against 6 top 25 passing teams and 8 top 50 rushing offenses. Now they get to face an offense that's ranked 99th in ypc rushing average and obviously can pass the ball with some of the better teams, but Texas now gets to sick their 31st sack % group against Oregon State.

Texas sack unit is even under rated really they faced a ton of QB's and OL's that get rid of the ball quick and protect their QB. I think Oregon State is making a major mistake going with Cody Vaz at QB who is not nearly as accurate as Sean Mannion completing less than 60% of his throws. He has not turned the ball over and that seems to be the main reason they are making the change. Oregon State's defense meanwhile will have to face a balanced offense that leads with a power run game. Texas is ranked 11th in QB rating and 38th in rushing ypc average. Oregon State did not play any teams with the exception of Oregon that had a balanced offense and could hurt them with both the run and the pass and to me that will be the difference in this game. There is a reason Texas has converted over 50% of their third downs and over 70% of their red zone trips into TD's. Oregon on the other hand only 34% of their third downs and their red zone defense is just not quite as good as Texas and Oregon State went against worst offenses as we mentioned earlier.

At the end of the day some times bowl games come down to who is motivated and this game will be played in Texas and Texas is facing a 13th ranked team in Oregon State so they should be up for this game. Also we just saw Baylor another Big 12 team embarrass UCLA last night and that came was played on the West Coast.

Rutgers +3 -120 buy 1/2 4.2* POD; Rutgers +8.5/U48 teaser 3.3* play
One thing is for sure both of these teams are bummed to be playing in this game. However, I can't back the Hokies in this game at all not only is Rutgers 5-0 in Bowl Games, but they are better at the things that have hurt Virginia Tech all year which I'll get to in a second.

First of all Virginia Tech is a team that has leaned on the run in recent years and this year has been no different they are ranked 58th with a 53% rushing play call. However, Tech was 82nd averaging just 3.9 ypc, and Rutgers is ranked 9th allowing 3ypc and 2.5 over their last 3. This will quickly turn the game over to the hands of Logan Thomas and that's not a good thing at least this season. Thomas is 85th in the nation in pass efficiency offense and has completed only 52.6% of his throw while throwing for 17 TD and 14 interceptions. Rutgers pass defense meanwhile has forced 29 turnovers and 16 interceptions while only allowing 12 TD's.

Rutgers is better at forcing the turnovers and Virginia Tech has already lost to two Big East teams this year. Virginia Tech better look out for DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene who help fuel a team that had 85 TFL and 41 QB hurries. Virginia Tech's offensive line is leaky and allowed 40 QB hurries on Thomas this year. Rutgers 41 QB hurries is more than Arizona State, South Carolina and Boise State combined who are all in the top 5 in sack % defense.

Although Rutgers defense is impressive Virginia Tech's is too ranking ahead of Rutgers in third down defense and also pretty stout against the run and pass, but at some point VT will have to stack the box and Rutgers has been capable of protecting their QB only allowed 8 sacks all year. That will give them one on coverage and Gary Nova can make the throws deep to his big talented receivers. Brandon Coleman, Tim Wright , and Mark Harrisson are all 6-3+ in height and Virginia Tech has had the tendency to give up big plays all year long.

Another x factor has to be special teams in this match up. Virginia Tech has been prone to poor punting this year and Rutgers has a tendency to block kicks over the years look for that to be a huge advantage in this game.

UCLA -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love UCLA here, Baylor really came on strong at the end of the year while UCLA over achieved, but UCLA will play a defense that can not stop a nose bleed. Baylor was dead last allowing 58% conversions on third down and Johnathan Franklin should have a field day. Baylor's defense has gotten by forcing turnovers and taking them back for TD's they were 1-4 on the road and with this game being in San Diego I'm guessing their will be far many more UCLA fans in attendance.

Baylor actually has run the ball a ton this year and UCLA was very good at stopping the run all year. Baylor is known more for their passing game, but Baylor runs the ball 53% of the time which you wouldn't think. At some point they will be forced to throw in this game and UCLA will bring it's 6th ranked pass rush something Baylor is not used to seeing. Baylor on the season saw an average 79th sack rush so facing UCLA is going to be something that will tilt the turnovers in UCLA's favor. UCLA actually forced more turnovers than Baylor this year and will have more balance on offense.

Giants -120 5.5* NFL POD
Giants are getting back some key players this week in Ahmad Bradshaw, Prince Amukmara and Kenny Phillips which should help them get a must win game here today in Baltimore. Baltimore continues to struggle on both sides of the ball and have already backed into the playoffs. I expect the Giants to be able to win this game and it starts up front where the Ravens have not been the same old Ravens ranking 19th in sack %. Eli Manning and the Giants are #1 as Manning is only sacked 3.17% of his drop backs. That will be huge for Manning today if he can keep up that pace and that should allow him to move the ball all day long as he hooks up with his talented receiving corps. The Giants should be able to continue to convert third downs where they are ranked 11th on the year, but have converted 50% over their last 3. The Giants did actually move the ball against the Falcons but the TO's uncharacteristically hurt them. Baltimore meanwhile is 23rd in the league in converting third downs and have a 28% mark over their last 3.

Giants need this game and they have more talent in my opinion because the Ravens are just banged up all over the place. This is typical Giant fashion needing 2 wins to get into the playoffs and I think they will get them. They are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games and the line is just low enough to still take them in this spot.

Lions +4 5.5* NFL POD The Falcons just came off a huge win over the Giants, the defending Super Bowl Champions so naturally this line will be inflated just a tad. The fact that the Lions came off a bad loss to the Cardinals makes this a huge play for me. Teams that have beat the SB champs are just 18-30 ATS the following week and over the last 10 years teams with 11 wins as road favorites are 9-29 ATS. I expect the Lions to play with a chip on their shoulder and being home on the holidays is a huge advantage in this spot.

Washington +5.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love the Huskies here today against Boise State. Washington may have lacked an identity on offense all year, but they have more talent on offense than Boise State as junior Keith Price should lead his team to a victory. Price will connect early and often with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins who in my opinion is the best TE in the nation. Price also has another option in Kasen Williams who is another sophomore with an NFL future. Both had 6 TD's this year as Price threw a total of 18, but the bigger key is whether or not Washington can run the ball. Bishop Sankey really came on strong at the end of the year with 15 TD's in all and should be able to help the Huskies control the clock vs Boise State.

Ball State +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Ball St +260 1* bonus
Keith Wenning is going to play tonight and that

San Diego State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This is an interesting match up between two teams that used to meet regularly in the Mountain West. BYU has controlled the match up over the years with their last meeting being decided by 3 points 2 years ago, but San Diego State has several advantages in this game and the 3.5 points is tremendous value. For one the Aztecs will be playing in their home town and in the same stadium (Qualcom) that they play in the regular season. That

GIANTS +1 5.5* NFL PLAY OF THE DAY

Toledo +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
I think we have tremendous value here in the line of 10.5 points. I think there is a misconception about the MAC and I also feel Toledo had a stronger strength of schedule with their top three being against Arizona, Cincinnati, and Northern Illinois while Utah State faced Wisconsin, BYU, and LA Tech. Note they played Wisconsin when Wisconsin looked like a shell of who they were down the stretch. Both teams are in the top 30 in my RPI and Toledo had the stronger strength of schedule by 38 percentage points based on their opponent win% and their opp-opp win%.

Utah State's defense was excellent this year, but they never faced a balanced offense until they met LA Tech who put 41 points up on them. Aside from LA Tech you could argue Toledo will be the best offense this defense has faced all season. In fact Utah State faced only two top 50 offenses all year and now they'll have to faced a third. The other two put up 41 and 27 points respectfully. Toledo is led by a balanced attack with an excellent rushing attack with David Fluellen and QB Terrance Owens returning to the line up.

Toledo also has significant advantages in time of possession and turnover margin. Utah State is ranked 71st in takeaways and Toledo is ranked 27th. Toledo played one of its best games vs. a team similar to Utah State in Northern Illinois that's off to a bowl game. Toledo had Northern Illinois on the ropes before falling in the 4th quarter and I think we could see a similar effort from this team today. With time of possession comes the key of third down. Utah State is 22nd in third down defense, but a closer look we realize they faced an average opponent ranked 77th in converting third downs. Now they'll face Toledo's balance offense ranked 39th. Utah State's offense was ranked 36th, but they struggled vs. some of the better third down defenses and Toledo's defense which gives up chunks of yardage is better than many believe. They were ranked 57th in third down defense against an average opponent ranking 59th in converting third downs and they were among the best in the red zone keeping opponents out of the end zone more than 50% of the time on red zone attempts and even held opponents on the road to a 39% TD percentage.

Eagles +4.5 4.4* NFL POD
The Eagles seem like they are on the right track after two games starting Nick Foles. Andy Reid did a great job taking away any kind of controversy by naming Foles the starter for the rest of the year which bodes well for Foles confidence. The biggest thing in this match up to me is Foles ability to move in the pocket and make accurate passes with the Bengals pass rush coming at him. Bengals are #1 in sack %, but Foles proved last year he can do that. Despite getting sacked 6 times he looked poised and got better as the game went on.

The Eagles defense also showed up and held Josh Freeman to 178 yards and 14-34. The Bengals I feel are quite over rated and the public likes them because of the big names like AJ Green and they continue to be backed, but I can not trust this team on the road. They really have not beaten anyone and they are very bad on third downs on both sides of the ball which is a key stat especially for winning on the road. They are 20th in third down defense and 25th in third down offense. Bengals really struggle on the back end despite having the #1 sack % team as they are 15th in QB rating and they have struggled against bad teams on the road against the run allowing 4.5 ypc. The Eagles have proven of late that they can win with the run and the passing game and I expect them to be right in this game.

Texans +6 4.4* NFL POD
The line has moved like crazy today, but I think there is tremendous value still on the Texans and I will thank the line movements. These two teams are even and both teams have not played the most challenging schedules. I've seen both teams face my team the NY Jets and neither one looked more impressive. The Patriots have gotten very lucky in many games because they are scoring points off turnovers. The Texans just don't turn the ball over and in fact are #3 in turnover margin. I think the Texans will play their best game of the season tonight and they certainly have the ingredients to upset the Patriots.

What are those ingredients? Pass rush, and a balanced offensive attack. Let me attack the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots are extremely vulnerable against the pass. They're ranked 23rd in sack % and 29th vs. the pass. However, teams that can run the ball like the Texans can have had the most success scoring points because the Patriots have trouble stopping them in the red zone. The Bills scored 31, 28 and have a great running game, the Seahawks scored 24, and the Ravens scored 31. Texans arguably have the best offense that the Patriots have faced all year long. The Broncos were really not clicking just yet when they visited the Pats in week 5.

Next, the pass rush. It's not ironic that the Patriots have struggled vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in pass rush, Arizona, Miami, Seattle, and even Denver. It's also no coincidence that New England is 22nd in pass play %. I really don't think this team trusts its pass protection and they've done so well running the ball they are smart enough to know they don't need to air it out 40+ times a game. Well the Texans are good at stopping the run and are ranked 5th in sack % led by J.J. Watt who could single handily ruin Tom Brady's night. Texans are also #1 in third down defense (ironically Arizona and Miami are in the top 5). New England won by just 7 at Miami ( a team that lacks an offense like the Texans) and lost at home to Arizona (a team which we have seen is the worst in the league). The Patriots are 29th in third down defense and worse at home.

Red Zone is another key aspect in this game. Who can bend and not break and who can punch it in? Well it's obvious both teams can punch it in they are both averaging 69% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games and are both in the top 5. Houston however has been far more dominant on the defensive end, 4th overall and they only allow 36% in the red zone while the Patriots are 23rd and allow 68% at home. I really look for this game to be close throughout and I give the Texans despite some injuries to have a real shot at winning the game. Brady will struggle at times especially without Gronkowski still.

Saints +5 5.5* NFL POD; Saints +195 1* bonus
Not only are the Saints still alive, but they are drawing motivation from the Giants playoff run a year ago. This Saints team absolutely believes they are still alive in the playoff hunt and they've had 4 extra days to prepare for this game. It's just a tough spot for the Giants here today who are starting to trend downward. Drew Brees in his last 3 games vs. the Giants 60% pass completions 864 yards 9 TD and 0 INT's. The Saints have played well vs. the Giants and I don't see any signs of that changing because the Giants have not shown they can be a dominant defense or team in home games.

They have played worse at home on defense than on the road. They're 27th in run defense overall allowing 4.6 ypc but at home they allow 5.0 yards per carry. For the Saints that's a great sign because they have relied on their deep stable of running backs far more than in years past. Brees on the other hand will go up against a Giants defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at home allowing a 96.4 and 106 in their last 3 games combined. The Saints should have their way with the Giants in the red zone specifically because they can run and pass efficiently. The Saints have the #1 red zone offense at 70% TD's, the Giants are 22nd in the red zone 48.98% in the red zone. The Saints defense is also tough in the red zone and that's how they have escaped for wins in the past. That mentality will help them cover this odd spread as I don't see them losing by more than 4 if they lose at all. Either way Brees will bounce back from a couple of bad games to lead this team. The extra couple days allowed them to find things they can exploit against the Giants. Saints are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss while the Giants are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Army +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD; Army +240 1* play
Even the Army coach admits that this game means more than going to a bowl game. So while I don't think Navy is looking ahead to their bowl game I do believe they are not as focused as Army. Up for grabs is the commander in chief trophy which goes to the service academy that wins the round robin between Army/Navy/Air Force. Both teams already beat Air Force so this game has more than sentimental value.

This game is bigger for Army who has lost 10 straight times to Navy, but has been much closer in recent years because of Trent Steelman who is playing in his last game as the Army QB. He'll go up against Navy's freshmen QB. Army also has a veteran leader in Nate Combs playing in his last game as the leader of the defense. Although it's a unit that just got shredded in their last game by Temple's Montel Harris one has to believe this group was already preparing for Navy knowing they weren't going bowling. I think that only gives us more value in this point spread.

There were many games Army could have won that would have put them in the bowl picture if you look through the season. Really if they won some of those games this could have been more like a 3 point spread in my opinion so I think we are getting a few points here and great value. Let's take a look at some of the games. Army played well at home all season with the exception of their last game. They even nearly beat BCS buster Northern Illinois, but fell 40-41. There was a loss to Kent State sprinkled in but they beat Boston College, and Air Force.

This game is pretty simple in terms of who is going to win or whether or not it's going to be a close game. 3rd down conversions and turnovers. Army has had issues turning the ball over all year which has cost them big time, but at home they are +0.7 turnover margin per game while Navy is -0.5 on the road. Navy also is 103rd in forcing turnovers and 92nd in fumble recovery %. Army not used to playing defenses that don't force turnovers. 3rd down conversion percentages have been pretty equal only Army is better offensively and defensively. Defensively Navy is 117th and allowing over 50% on the road while Army is 101st, but have allowed just 41% over their last 3. Offensively Navy is 59th while Army is 25th and converting 50% over their last 3. I think the experience of Army's QB Steelman and the preparation of Army's experience and will to win this game and have something to celebrate will be the difference.

Raiders +10.5 4.4* NFL POD These teams know each other well since they play 2 times a year, and being double digit favorites on the road is just too much for even the Broncos who will be traveling on a short week. The Raiders have been tough in games at home this season or at least their offense has been more capable and getting McFadden back this week will definitely help make them more balanced against the Broncos. The Broncos on the other hand have the Ravens next week which is a more crucial game to their season success despite this being a division game. Broncos beat the Ravens next week and they could be on their way to a bye in the playoffs. Now Peyton Manning led teams are not usually victims of looking ahead, but the Raiders want to prove that they are not as bad as their record indicates. I also don't think the Broncos are as good as this line. They've played a lot of bad teams lately and have been covering the spread 6 out of their last 9 games becoming a big public backed team. Meanwhile the Raiders are a team that have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5, but remain a capable team to beat anyone at home. I think we are getting tons of value in this spot.

4.4** top play

Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD
I get it the Bengals are surging right now winners of 3 straight and the Chargers are losers of 6 of 7, so it's no wonder that they are home dogs on Sunday to the Bengals, but this is a desperate Chargers team right now. The Bengals really have not played well in San Diego. It's a long trip and they have lost 5 of 6 since 1992. This is clearly their most challenging road game on the season as their road schedule has been pretty easy.

On the other side the Chargers have had a brutal schedule with no easy wins. They already played the Broncos twice, Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, and on the road against an under rated Tampa team. I think they finally get a game in their own building with against a team playing with too much confidence. Andy Dalton has tossed 9 TD and 0 INT's in his last three games, but a closer look at those games and he faced some bad defenses. I'm not just talking about against the pass which was 32nd, 30th, and 13th, but also against the run meaning Benjarvis Green-Ellis has helped with balanced as they have faced run defenses ranked 24th, 28th, and 22nd. Now on the road against the Chargers will be a different challenge. Although the Chargers are ranked 22nd against the pass they have faced some really good QB's already, and their run defense is ranked 6th against the run. That means the Chargers can at least take one aspect of the Bengals offense away making them one dimensional. The Bengals rushing offense is not that good to begin with so I look for the Chargers to really concentrate on stopping the pass.

On the other side of the ball Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been solid at times, but the biggest issue has been the turnovers. Well the Bengals defense is 29th in takeaways on the road and have allowed a 117 QB rating over the last three games alone. They also struggle against the run allowing 4.9 ypc in their last 3 and 4.6 ypc on the road this year. They're ranked 23rd against the run and that's good news for the Chargers who should have success and balance offensively. Chargers will have more success on third downs where they are ranked 13th overall and convert 41.7% at home while the Bengals are 27th and are only converting 28.5% on the road. When they face defense that can shut down their run they find it very difficult to convert because they go into a lot of 3rd and longs.

Wisconsin +3.5 -115 5.5* POD Wisconsin +1.5 2.2* 1Half
It appears LB Chris Borland will return which is a huge boost, as Boorland commented that he will play in this game. Even without them the defense did a great job vs. Ohio State and Penn State allwoing 3.6 and 3.5 ypc in two OT losses, but none of that matters as they go up against Nebraska with revenge in the Big Ten Championship.

IN the first match up Wisconsin led 20-3 at half time before getting dominated in the second half and losing on the road to Nebraska. The difference was home field advantage to be honest and the fact that Nebraska ran the ball better and stopped the run better. Wisconsin is a totally different team now Montee Ball's season completely turned around and Nebraska who held Wisconsin to 1.4 ypc in that game are allowing 5.5 ypc on the road this year. Wisconsin also should have a healthy Abredaries who torched Nebraska for 142 yards and a TD.

Nebraska boasts the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, but they are also 18th in opponent pass play % as opponents only average 42% passing percentage. When teams do throw On Nebraska they can have success in the play action which is what Wisconsin does well. Wisconsin though is running the ball a ton 70% of the time in their last 3 games and they are doing it well. That's really what this game comes down to and on a neutral field I give Wisconsin the edge. IN conference play they averaged 5.14 ypc to Nebraska's 4.70 and they averaged 5.69 over their last 3 games against good opponents. Their defense allowed 3.68 ypc while Nebraska allowed 4.16 ypc and we already mentioned their struggles to stop the run on the road. Montee Ball also has 7 TD's in 2 games vs. Nebraska.

Wisconsin will send Nebraska a different look with their third starting QB in 5th year senior Curt Phillips who has played well. Wisconsin is catching a ton of crap for backing into this game losing to both Ohio State and Penn State the two teams ahead of them in the division but are ineligible and I think they come out and dominate this game. They did the same thing last year after losing to Michigan State in the regular season only to get revenge in the Championship game.

Nebraska really struggled in pre snap motions in the first match up and I expect them to lose the turnover battle in this game they are -8 on the year while Wisconsin is +5 in conference play. It won't help that Nebraska is without two senior linemen starters one on offense and one on defense for this game. They have also come from behind in 5 of their

UCLA +8.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) UCLA +270 1* bonus
I had UCLA on a strong lean last week, but I really couldn't help but hold off knowing that this team already knew they were heading to the Pac 12 Championship no matter what. It was only a matter of who they felt like facing more. Oregon or Stanford? One had to wonder if they led up a bit in this game or came out flat and after watching the game tonight, since it was only on the PAC 12 channel on Saturday I am convinced that UCLA did hold back as they played one of their worst if not their worst most sloppy game of the year.

One word describes it all in what decided the game, "penalties." UCLA had 12 penalties for 135 yards, and several were back breakers. It actually cost them probably double the 135 yards because of plays it took away and also forced them into many third and longs. UCLA converted plenty of third downs early and it was obvious that they could give Stanford issues with RB Johnathan Franklin and their dynamic TE Joseph Fauria who could not be stopped. Still it was penalty after penalty and some bad throws by QB Hundley as well as some key drops. It was clear that UCLA did not come ready to play and were still hung over from defeating USC at home the week before.

Looking at the stat line you would think Stanford did what they wanted, but UCLA was solid on third down and with the exception of two big runs by Stefan Taylor they held the run in check. They even had several tackles for loss on first downs, but penalties took over the game and probably gave Stanford at least 10 points or took away 7 points from their own. By the end of the game it was obvious that Stanford was the more desperate team as they seemed to empty the playbook or at least show all of their goods. I saw the wild cat, I saw their jumbo package, I saw them turn to passing on first down because the run was not working. Stanford's offense is not that creative to begin with and I don't anticipate them changing at home. They've held a steady game plan all year. Run the ball 56% of the time, home or away and even with the success of Kevin Hogan they have actually run the ball more 60% of the time over the last three games and that falls into the strength of the UCLA Bruins who are among the best in the conference at stopping the run and even on the road they held opponents to 3.49 ypc which was better than their home stat. Their rushing offense on the flip side was also better on the road this year and watching the game film you could see Johnathan Franklin was just one play away from breaking it. He's looked the best against Stanford's run defense that has been dominant and I would argue he's the best RB in America.

The fact that they have an accurate QB to go along with that is a dangerous recipe. Hundley just seemed to have an off game last week and I think this entire team is going to bounce back and play with discipline because it is the PAC 12 Championship. They were here last year and didn't deserve it (USC Suspension) and got blown out by Oregon and this year they'd like to make a statement especially with everyone down on them again.

I'll add this last bit of info. Stanford has not been dominant really in any game this year against a worthy opponent. Even at home their games have all been decided by a TD or less. 4, 7, 6, 7, and 3 points respectfully and they should have lost to Oregon State. They did beat Duke by 37 points, and dominated California 21-3, and Colorado 48-0 on the road, but those are bad teams. UCLA is a very good team with a solid defense and a balanced offense that can move the ball so long as they are disciplined.

Rutgers -2.5 -115 (buy 1/2) 4.6** NCAAF POD
Rutgers has not beaten Louisville in quite some time and this is the perfect spot for them to seek their revenge. Rutgers is loaded with experienced players and leadership on both sides of the ball while Louisville still remains a young team that is struggling to the finish line. A lot of these players on Louisville are playing their 12th game and it's a lot in college football. They are banged up at RB losing their leading rusher Senorise Perry, and QB as Terry Bridgewater hurt his leg and broke his non-throwing arm. Bridgewater will play, but he'll be forced into the shutgun for the entire game.

That's a huge advantage for Rutgers as Louisville shrinks it's playbook. Louisville is struggling big time to run the ball just 75 yards in their last 2 games combined and it's no coincidence that it was their first two losses of the season. Well running against Rutgers with injuries is going to be even more impossible. Rutgers is 13th in ypc run defense in the nation and ranks higher than Uconn who just dominated this group up front. I see DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene leading the way to plugging the running game. Rutgers defense on the back end is also very good they have more interceptions than TD allowed. Louisville has been very good at limiting turnovers, but they have not faced many teams that can stop the run and the pass and this is clearly the best defense they faced all year. Louisville's road schedule was extremely weak playing two of the worst teams in college football and struggling against winless Southern Miss, and FIU and then they were dominated by Syracuse, a team Rutgers is better than. Meanwhile Rutgers only lost was to Kent State (before their look ahead loss to Pitt (off a bye) last week), a team that will be going to a BCS game possibly if they can win the MAC, a conference that's better than the Big East in my opinion.

The line is low because Rutgers offense has struggled, and Gary Nova has 10 interceptions over his last 4 games, but Louisville is 70th in takeaways, and 124th on the road. That's probably because they are unable to create 3rd and long situations and get off the field on third down as well as create any sort of pressure. To put things in perspective, Louisville is -8 in tackles for loss (allowing more), and -3 in sacks and Rutgers is +18 in tackles for loss and +10 in sacks. Louisville also allowed more than 50% conversions to 3 of their 4 road opponents and 52% overall. Their road opponents were ranked 76th, 82nd, and 72nd in third downs and Syracuse converted 73% and was ranked 11th. This may be one of the few games in a while Rutgers can convert on third down which should be a major advantage. Don't sleep on Rutgers running game as Louisville's run defense is quite vulnerable allowing 4.62 ypc in conference play and 4.30 ypc on the road. Rutgers relies on the run 57% of the time over their last 3 games alone and even though Jawan Jamison is a little banged up SAvon Huggins has shown he can carry the load (179 yards at Cincinatti - only allows 3.86 ypc in conference play) - Huggins did that on the road and now he's home against a Louisville run defense that's worst. Louisville will have to be careful about stacking the box, because Rutgers has a trio of WR that if left alone create major mismatches. Brandon Coleman is 6-6, Mark Harrison is 6-3, and Tim Wright is 6-4.

Apart from those advantages Rutgers also has the advantage in the red zone as they have converted 69% of their attempts into TD's at home while Louisville is allowing 78.5% on the road. Rutgers defense also has been great in the red zone allowing just 40% conversions and 37.5% in conference play. Louisville will be really predictable when they get down there out of the shotgun and I anticipate some interceptions from Bridgewater in this game that will allow Rutgers to cover this spread. Rutgers is 4-1 at home and their wins have come by an average of nearly 18 points.

Giants -2.5 4.4* NFL POD The Giants are desperate for a positive vibe and now they face the Packers at home off a bye. The media, and the general public are now all down on the Giants who just a few weeks ago everyone was saying was a lock to return to the Super Bowl when they defeated the 49ers on the road. This team constantly plays to the competition. They seem to always come up with their big games against the really good teams in the league. The Giants also with extra time to prepare are 6-0 in their last 6 games off a bye week which includes two Super Bowl victories. The Packers offensive line is still among one of the worst and I think this is the game we see the return of the Giants dominant pass rush. The Packers are a one dimensional team that should have issues on the road on Sunday night protecting their QB. Packers are 29th and allow Rodgers to get sacked 10.88% of the time on the road while the Giants are 2nd only sacked 3.43% of the time.

USC +5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); USC +190 2* bonus
This is bigger than any bowl game that USC will get and they'll face the #1 team in the country on their home field 2 days after Thanksgiving Day. Notre Dame has to travel across the country and for once they won't have a scheduling spot in their favor. This will be just Notre Dame's 4th road game and while they got by Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Boston College this will be a different challenge.

USC, has the right combination of things working for them in this match up, and I'm not concerned with Matt Barkley being out, Max Whittek is said to have the better arm, and he's had an entire week to practice and he's got plenty of confidence. Oh he's also got the best receivers in the country in Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. What I mean by the right ingredients is USC has the tools that have given Notre Dame issues in all aspects. Notre Dame has not faced any good passing teams this year with the exception of Oklahoma who are ranked 8th and Landry Jones completed nearly 70% of his passes and 356 yards. Notre Dame's offense which is one dimensional has also struggled vs. good defensive lines who can establish a pass rush and stop the run. Check, USC is ranked 17th in sack % with a 10.42% rank and they have been so good at stopping the run not even their impressive 3.6 ypc defense in home games tells the true story as they gave up 7 yards per carry to Oregon, but every other opponent could not average more than 3 yards. Notre Dame is not Oregon offensively, and they struggled against Stanford, and BYU two other teams that can get to the QB. Everett Gholston has had a lot of poise this year but I'm afraid that's about to end, he's only completing 59% of his throws on the season.

Notre Dame only throws 39% of the time on the road, but as I mentioned USC can stop the run and at some point you can only beat USC if you throw the ball and keep up with them, because Notre Dame's secondary is extremely vulnerable and who is better to take advantage than Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. I think the Matt Barkley injury is a bit over rated and being home is a huge advantage in this match up. Look for Lee to have a field day on the Irish secondary. USC is just as strong in red zone defense as the Irish are, but the difference is USC has the ability for big plays that won't require scoring inside the 20. As good as Notre Dames defense has been they have only allowed 35% conversions on third down which is not that impressive for a top 5 defense. USC actually has arguably the most balanced attack that Notre Dame has seen all year and unfortunately for Notre Dame I think USC will make this the game of their year that was supposed to be completely different.

Arkansas +12.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
This game is Arkansas bowl game since they won't be going to one and there will actually be a trophy for the Golden Boot. LSU has cruised by in their season being on the road for just 3 games in which they had just 42 points combined and scored more than 12 points ( the point spread) once. Arkansas 81st defense is nothing to be excited about, but their weakness is against the pass 119th in the country, while they have been stout against the run 26th and are 24th allowing just 3.6 ypc. LSU has always been a run first team and are in the tops in the nation in rushing play %, but they have only averaged 3.89 ypc on the road and 3.2 ypc in their last 3. I don't see this game getting out of hand based on LSU's offense even if they are starting to become more balanced, because Arkansas has the offense to move the ball.

Arkansas started this season as bad as you could and most of the coaching staff will be coaching their last game for this team which is led by 21 seniors including Tyler Wilson at QB and WR Cobi Hamilton who has 80 catches for 1,237 yards. LSU's secondary has not been challenged by anyone. They have faced just 1 team in the top 50 in passing attempts and that was Texas A&M who led LSU 12-0 before they ended up turning the ball over a ton. You could make an argument that Tyler Wilson is the best QB that LSU has faced all year and you better bet he wants to go out on top as a senior, saying "We've got one game left, and we know this is it. So why not go out there and light it up one more time." I don't see a significant edge for LSU in this game even on third down LSU on the road is only converting 19%, and 38% in conference play, while Arkansas is converting nearly 40% overall and their defense has been good enough allowing only 38% conversions at home. Even in the red zone LSU only scoring 50% TD's, 40% conference play and 25% on the road, while Arkansas is at 57% at home and their defense is ironically the same allowing 70% TD's in conference play while LSU is too.

Bottom line this is very much like the situation in 2008 when Arkansas was +7 at home and 4-7 with a season wrapped up they went on to win 31-30 and I can see a crazy game like that again.

TCU +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Texas normally would play Texas A&M, but with the Aggies off to the SEC that ended one of the oldest rivalries and here comes TCU who used to play Texas in the SWC and actually have 82 total match ups with Texas. It's a great transition for Thanksgiving and will be an interesting match up for Texas who for the first time in a long time won't have the best defense on the field on Thanksgiving.

Both teams are off a bye week and I think that's even more important for a TCU team that needed the rest as they are very young. You have to wonder how much Texas was looking ahead to Kansas State who was likely to be undefeated but were shocked by Baylor. When the game starts Texas offense which has clicked at time this year will have several things they have not seen this year. TCU's defense has always been good and they are known for holding Kansas State to a season low 260 yards. Texas has dominated and gotten by on offense by facing bad defenses. TCU is ranked 16th overall and more importantly 7th vs. the run. This is by far the best run defense Texas will face all year. Over their last 5 games they have faced run defense ranked 95, 90, 89, 71, and 61 and even the game before that vs. West Virginia ranked 30th is a bit of a misconception since everyone throws on West Virginia.

On the flip side TCU has had a tough schedule vs. run defense and Texas is ranked 100th in run defense, and that's good news for TCU because in their last game they could not protect their young talented QB. At least in this game they will be able to rely on the run. TCU is 3-1 on the road in the Big 12 this season because it's where they run the ball far more at a rate of 55%. If they follow that same script they should be well in this game especially since Texas could have issues on third down with TCU who is ranked 5th overall allowing just 28% third downs. That's important to note because of how over rated Texas offense is in this situation. Texas who has converted 52% of third downs has hardly faced any real defenses that can stop it and that's likely because of they have faced poor run defenses. Overall they have faced an average 86th third down defense. TCU is also 5th overall in takeaways this season and while Texas has been pretty good at holding onto the ball they have not been tested like this. I expect a close game and I would not be shocked if TCU pulled off the upset. Gary Patterson is a good coach and the extra rest was surely a benefit to his young team.

Cowboys -3 5.5* NFL POD
This game could be ugly as two of the most penalized teams will meet in Dallas on Turkey day. I'm loving the Cowboys in this spot as they are 13-0 in November at home under Tony Romo and Romo gets a favorable match up. I think we get a lot of value based on how the Cowboys struggled last week, but that was against Cleveland's passing defense. The Browns despite being ranked in the bottom of the league were the leagues best last year and have started to click in defending the pass allowing just 183 over their last 3. That was problamtic for the Cowboys because they have been unable to run the ball. I was not shocked to see their offense sputter, but it's no indication of how they have been playing because now they face a Redskins team that is one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

Redskins have been good in key running situations, but still have allowed 4.6 ypc on the road, but even more of a key is their inability to stop the pass. They're ranked 29th in yards allow, and 28th in sack % which means they can't afford to blitz and won't get to Romo like the Browns did. Redskins defense has allowed 32, 31, 22, 27 and 27 in road games this year and Dallas is fully capable in the passing game that just seems to get better and better by the week to put up those type of numbers too and if they do this game will be over because the Redskins rely more on the run and are not built to come back.

RG III has been great and all, but their huge win last week is no indication of how good or bad they are. The Eagles have quit on their coach and the Redskins came off a bye. Now they travel on short rest to face the Cowboys at home on Turkey day. Dallas too has been one of the best run defenses at home good for 2nd allowing just 3.4 ypc. Ever since Jay Ratliff has come back they have been hard to run on. This will set up some longer third downs and that is where the Redskins seem to struggle big time as they are 30th only converting 30% of them while the Cowboys are 11th. Dallas defense on third down is also great ranking 5th allowing just 33% at home while the Redskins are ranked 29th. This translates over to the red zone where the Redskins are 20th and the Cowboys are 11th, but the Cowboys are only allowing 36% conversions in the red zone at home.

Bottom line people love to bet the hot hand and whoever they are talking about in the media and that has led to bets coming in on RG III, but I think Romo and the Cowboys can take off here if they get a win here. It's a crucial game and the Cowboys just seem to have the matchups especially with S Brandon Meriweather lost for the season on the Redskins side. This Cowboys team could easily be 8-2 right now, but a few bad breaks and coaching decisions. Last week they finally pulled off a game they would have lost in the past and I think that confidence will carry them to an easy victory on Thanksgiving as their defense takes control.

Akron +19 4.4* NCAAF POD / Akron +900 0.5* play
Akron has 4 extra days to prepare for this game and despite being 1-10 and 0-7 in the MAC this will be like a championship to them. HC Terry Bowden has made great strides this year at Akron although the record does not indicate that. They have 4 games decided by 8 points or less and have not lost by more than 19 points on the road while Toledo has not beaten a team at home by more than 19. As good as Toledo

49ers -3.5 4.4* NFL POD
Both teams will be starting their back up QB's here and even though the Bears Jason Campbell has more experience I"m giving the 49ers who are just far less reliant on their QB a huge edge. The 49ers have never asked Alex Smith to win games and now that he's out they actually get a new wrinkle with Colin Kaepernick in there who can be explosive in the running game.

That's the key right there the running game and the 49ers are far more dominant at running the ball than the Bears. 49ers are ranked 1st overall and average over 6 yards per carry at home. The Bears are ranked 29th on the road in ypc allowed and they have faced rushing offenses on the road ranked 25th, 32nd, 31st, and 5th. I'm very sketpikal on their gap integrity and ability to stop this rushing attack tonight. They are ranked 18th overall and are allowing 4.8 ypc on the road. The Bears have relied too much on forcing turnovers and when they face teams that do not give the ball away they lose. 49ers are 5th in the league with fewest turnovers. The Bears have played two other teams like that and lost both to the Texans (at home), and Packers (on the road).

49ers also can stop the run much better than the Bears can ranked 3rd in the league and their defense has been tested by several top 10 teams especially at home already. San Fran has actually improved their red zone TD% this year ranked 7th, while Chicago has done a poor job ranked 44th and scoring just 36% TD's on the road. The ability of Campbell will only reduce that especially given how great the 49ers run defense has been.

Chiefs +3.5 5.5* NFL POD
I really love the Chiefs here and I think we are getting a ton of value here in a home dog. The Bengals did beat the Giants last week who have been playing poorly of late, but beating the defending Super Bowl Champions will get you tons of credit and the public is pouring in on the Bengals this week as road dogs. How could you back the Bengals on the road right now? Their defense has been terrible against the pass and the run. This will be the first game for the Chiefs since facing the Saints that they should be able to find balance as the Bengals are 31st in completion % defense and 27th in yards per carry defense and even worse when they are on the road.

If you take away the records and you purely look at the stats the Chiefs could easily be the better team. They have plenty of weapons, the better defense and they are at home. They have Brandon Flowers at CB who is playing at a high level and should be able to take AJ Green out of the game or at least slow him down to give his team a chance to win. The Bengals lack balance on offense too and it's a clear reason why they are 29th converting third downs with just 31% rate and 28% on the road. The Chiefs are 12th, and their 3rd down defense is ranked 9th and allow just 28% at home.

Chiefs main issues this year have been turnovers and scoring TD's as they are last in RZ TD%, but facing the Bengals should help as they are 26th in red zone defense while the Chiefs are 12th and allowing just 26% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games. I expect the Chiefs to hold the Bengals to field goals on possessions in the red zone. You can definitely see the Bengals struggling in this spot.

Ohio State +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5* pod
Ohio State has a major advantage in this game coming off a bye week which allowed them to get healthy particularly at LB where they had some depth issues and that will go along way as they have to stop Wisconsin rushing offense. Ohio State is fully capable of doing that particularly because they feature a one dimensional offense as they are ranked 112th in passing offense and now have an unkown in there in Curt Phillips who has spent most of his career injured with 3 different knee surgeries. Wisconsin has played against 3 top 25 run defenses this year and the results have not been good putting up 7, 16, and 13 points losing 2 of them and should have lost the third to Utah State who missed several field goals. Bottom line they have gone 0-3 ATS against top 25 run defense and Ohio State is ranked 16th and they are allowing just 2.64 ypc on the road. Bottom line Ohio State does what Wisconsin does, but they do it better.

Wisconsin's defense will have major issues stopping Ohio State's Braxton Miller. Yes they are the best run defense in the Big Ten, but the only other time they faced a capable running game with multiple threats including a QB was against Nebraska a game they lost and gave up 259 yards. Wisconsin also won't be with a healthy Chris Borland who is their best player on defense at LB. He hurt his hamstring and those injuries tend to linger. Ohio State also has an emotional advantage here off a bye and Wisconsin already has the Legends division wrapped up after last week's blow out of Indiana as Penn State and Ohio State are ineligible. Ohio State will be playing this game like their default bowl game.

Ohio State has major advantages in red zone and on third downs that will allow them to win this game on the road. First of all they are allowing just 33% conversions on the year and are converting 45% good for 30th and 48% in road games while Wisconsin is ranked 108th converting 31% of their third downs, that's what an offense that has no balance will get you. In the red zone Braxton Miller is a difference maker as Ohio State has not only gotten there 9 more times, but they have scored 80% TD's and 77% in conference play to Wisconsin's 63% and 68% percentages. Ohio State's defense too has produced better numbers holding opponents to 48% TD's in the red zone while Wisconsin is ranked 68%. There is also no love lost between these two coaches and you better bet Urban Meyer will flex his coaching muscles with a well prepared game plan off the bye.

Ohio +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD, Ohio +225 1* bonus
Everyone is down on Ohio it seems, but they were in a tough scheduling spot over the last few weeks as they played 3 games in a span of 12 days and lost two of them. That was not an easy thing to do and now they are on normal rest playing in a game where they can still get to the MAC title game if Bowling Green loses two games and they win out. It starts tonight and I feel this line is really off as Frank Solich is a very good game. The line is a clear indication based on Ball State

Steelers/Chiefs Over 40 4.4* NFL POD; 2.2* bonus Chiefs +18.5/ Over 34
I believe this game goes over, the Steelers defense though ranked #1 in the league is not as good as advertised. They are 22nd in TD% in the red zone and 26th in third down defense. The Chiefs will be able to score and put up yards by converting on third downs where they are ranked 5th. The Chiefs just have to avoid the turnovers and they will be in this game. I know that is a big If the way they have played this year, but the Steelers are not the defense they were in the past in forcing turnovers. They are 23rd in sack % and they are also 30th getting just 1 turnover per game. The Chiefs are dead last in turnovers, but now they face a team they can actually avoid turnovers and I think they'll get the running game going early with Jamal Charles. Defensively I think the Chiefs are in trouble particularly against the run.

The Steelers are as healthy as they have ever been with all of their running backs looking to be ready for this game. Each player will be fighting for yards because the guy that produces is going to get the playing time. The Chiefs are also allowing 5.3 yards per carry on the road and the Steelers should set up convertible third downs where they are the best in the league. I do think the Steelers after getting a big victory last week could have a bit of a let down and a look ahead as they get the Ravens next week, but I think the defense is the team that will falter as the offense has averaged 28pts per game the week before facing the Ravens in the last 7 seasons under Big Ben.

Titans +6.5 5.5* NFL POD
Miami has not been a good home team for a while now going just 22-51-1 ATS in their last 74 and now they are favorites by nearly a TD their biggest number in almost three years? I don't think the Titans are nearly as bad as they showed last week against the Bears which was a complete disaster and their owner Bud Adams lashed out at his team all week and I think the Titans players and coaching staff will be playing with some desperation on Sunday. Dolphins are also coming off a tough loss, but they have a short week and a division opponent up next Thursday that they'll be looking ahead to.

If you take out last weeks result the Titans are a very similar team to the Dolphins. The Titans have the better offense while the Dolphins have the better defense, but the Dolphins pass defense has just been awful. With Jake Locker coming back and providing a spark to the team I think it will be a big day for the Titans offense who have talented receivers that can beat the Dolphins with regularity on Sunday. On the flip side there is this idea that Miami can run the ball well they are ranked 28th in ypc with just 3.7 ypc on the season and 3.2 in their last three while the Titans should find more balance with Chris Johnson who is starting to pick things up of late.

Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Louisville has not played well on the road vs. bad teams and now they go up against a Syracuse team that has been very balanced on offense and defense across all major categories. Syracuse has tendency to win against ranked teams in the Carrier Dome and Louisville has just been asking for it the last few weeks.

Syracuse will be playing on senior day and led by senior QB Ryan Nassib who is capable of beating Louisville's defense that has not faced anyone really. Syracuse has had tough games here already facing USC, Northwestern both are in the top 25 in the nation and the Orangemen will look to stay alive for a bowl game.

Louisville's run defense just allowed 255 rush yards and Syracuse who has faced some of the better run defense has been able to keep a balanced attack at home with Jerome Smith and Gulley averaging 4.37 ypc despite facing two top 30 run defenses. Louisville is 50th against the run and could have issues facing a physical running back. On the flip side Syracuse is capable of stopping Louisville's 71st ranked rushing attack. They held Northwestern to 3.10 ypc which was their lowest all season by over a yard. They held both Pittsburgh and Uconn to under 1 ypc.

At the end of the day Louisville is getting too much credit they have faced poor competition especially on the road and their defense is not nearly as impressive in key categories as Syracuse especially on third down as Syracuse is 32% to Lousiville's 41.6% on the road as Syracuse is among the nations leaders in tackles for loss with 67, while Louisville has just 42. Look for Syracuse offense that has struggled at times in the red zone to get it done on Saturday as Louisville's defense has allowed an 80% TD percentage on the road while Louisville's red zone offense has been excellent it's faced an average rz defense allowing 70% touch downs and Syracuse is only allowing 50% at home.

At the end of the day going into the Carrier Dome is no easy task especially for a Louisville team that starts mostly under classmen led by Terry Bridgewater who is not close to being the same on the road completing just 59% of his passes. On Saturday for the first time this year he won't' be the best QB on the field as Nassib has been great completing 65% of his throws for 9 TD and just 2 interceptions and he goes up against a Louisville pass defense that has allowed 68% completion percentage in road games this year.

Jaguars +3.5 4.4* NFL POD
I love the Jaguars in this spot with all the hype continuing to grow with Andrew Luck and the Colts. The Jaguars have played terribly and deserve to be home dogs the rest of the way, but I think they'll want to prove something here tonight and I think they will have some success doing so against the Colts defense that has not played well on the road. I know Andrew Luck is going to be a star in this league, but right now there is just too much hype. He has not played well on the road in three games where he's been sacked 9 times and has thrown just 2 TD's and 6 interceptions. He's also not completing 60% of his passes and not even close on the season which is a clear indicator that he just does not have the weapons around him to be an efficient QB that will be able to win on the road. This defense just is not any good and I see the Jaguars playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and finally coming away with their first win at home.

Last night

Eagles +3 4.4* NFL POD
Neither team is very exciting to back right now, but how can you back a favorite that is doing something that's historic right now in the Saints and their defense. The Saints have allowed 400+ yards in 7 straight games and they have played some pretty bad offenses (Chiefs). The Saints are last in the league in yards per play 6.7 ypp and will go up against an Eagles offense that has struggled this year, but has the ability to put up over 500 yards of offense with the players they will put on the field. They also have the potential and the play makers to give Drew Brees trouble.

The defense is the bigger key as the Eagles have not played nearly as bad as the media has portrayed. This defense is 3rd in third down conversions they are 3rd in red zone defense TD% allowed 37.5%, and 1st in pass completion % defense. Drew Brees and the Saints don't have the ingredients to beat the Eagles unless they force turnovers because I think this offense is going to finally click whether it's Michael Vick breaking the blitzes for dynamic plays or Lesean McCoy against the leagues worst run defense that's allowing over 5 ypc. Either way the Eagles offense is dangerous on turf and they need a win here. If they lose this game I see many changes coming. All the Eagles need is 238 yards against the Saints and the Saints will have allowed more yard through 8 games than any other defense in NFL history. The Saints defense is not forcing turnovers either so look for the Eagles to take what they give them as there will be a lot to take.

Raiders -1 5.5* NFL POD
We were on the Bucs to beat the Vikings at +210 last Thursday and now the public is in love with Josh Freeman again. However, this is a tough game and I see a bit of a hang over for a young team. For one this team is flying across the country to play this game against a Raiders team that is starting to click. Carson Palmer should be able to have a huge game against the Bucs secondary that has been decimated by injuries and trades. Their secondary was not good to begin with so this really puts them in a tough situation. The Bucs run defense won't help them in this game because the Raiders are very much used to being stopped when they try to run the ball and it has resulted in a lot of passes and good chemistry between Palmer and his receivers.

On the flip side don't sleep on Oakland's front 7 ability to stop the run as they are only allowing 2.1 ypc and are 10th overall when you combine home and away stats. TB showed some real weaknesses against the run allowing 6.7 ypc, so don't think that Oakland will completely abandon the run. Look for McFadden to build off his first 100 yard rushing day. I also like the Raiders ability to hold the Bucs up on third downs as they are holding opponents 33% conversions on third downs while the Bucs are only converting 31% of their third downs and Oakland and Carson Palmer have done a decent job at home and are only getting better converting 41% of their third downs and those are key stats in a game that is supposed to be very close.

LSU +9 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay so here it is, the game LSU circled in the off season and it seems like the folks who scheduled the game wanted them to have every advantage they could. LSU not only hosts Alabama on what everyone knew was going to be the a game that had national implications, but they gave LSU the week off before. Don't sleep on Les Miles he's beaten Nick Saban before and with extra preparation should be able to put up a good fight in this game as the 6 head to head battles between these two coaches have been remarkably close on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. I expect nothing less from this match up on Saturday night in Death Valley.

First of all no matter what anyone tells you Alabama has clearly had the weaker SEC schedule thus far having to play an over rated Miss State team at home is the highlight? Miss State beat a lot of weak non conference teams, and Alabama also played Tenn, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi. Nothing sexy about it that's for sure while LSU in its last three games alone played Texas A&M, the SEC's best offense, Florida, and South Carolina. LSU's pass defense is every bit as good as Alabama's pass defense and they are even better at getting to the QB, while LSU is also better at protecting the QB. Two keys in this game that nobody realizes. Alabama is 13th in getting to the QB 8.16% of drop backs, just 6.67 on the road while LSU is ranked 10th. Bama is also 108th in allowing sacks and A.J. McCarron is banged up because of it. LSU has not been great, but look at the sack defenses they have faced in A&M who is perennially a top 5 pass rush defense, and South Carolina both teams are ranked in the top 20. Bama faced Western Kentucky, but they are a team from the Sun Belt, none of the other opponents are ranked in the top 20 in sack %.

So we spoke about what happens up front and we give LSU the small advantage on both sides based on stats, but being home is an even greater advantage, but we can't help but look at the QB match up which obviously favors the Crimson Tide on paper, but... Zach Mettinberger was recruited for this type of game and this won't be the national title game. Mettinberger has a strong arm and he's completing 63% of his passes at home. I'm not saying he'll have a better game than McCarron, but I don't think there is a big enough advantage on Alabama's side here to warrant getting more than a TD on the road especially when..

Alabama's running game that they lean on so much has not faced a top 15 run defense or run offense while LSU has. In fact other than Michigan's dual threat 16th ranked run offense that's not comparable to the SEC, Alabama has not faced a top 50 rushing offense. LSU is ranked 27th but they average 5.6 ypc at home and feature 4 running backs averaging over 5.96 ypc, and Spencer Ware who is averaging 4.11. Their RB will be fresh all game long and should find some room for manageable third downs against Alabama's defense that is a lot different than last year's national title team that lost 5 starters. Alabama is 17th in rushing offense 5.2 ypc, but they'll face an LSU run defense that allows just 1.6 ypc at home and has been tested by good rushing offenses already this year.

The small things are special teams and other random stats that not many people look at. There is a lot of talk about which defense is better and I spoke about how LSU is just as good and playing at home should give them a huge advantage, but if you need a stat that tells you more LSU has 65 TFL this year and are averaging over 9 per conference game. That's 19 more than Alabama while they have also allowed 4 less TFL on offense than Alabama. That was the biggest difference in the national championship game last year as Alabama dominated the point of attack. With the extra week to prepare, + home field advantage, revenge, and all that's on the table for LSU I think there is a lot of value here and I would be shocked if the Tigers didn't cover this spread.

Virginia Tech -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
Both teams are coming off a bye week and the winner could be a top of the Coastal Division. So as bad as the season has gone it can still turn around and I

Cardinals +7.5 -115 5* NFL POD; Cardinals +14/Under 45 6.5point teaser 2.5*
Two top 10 defenses face off today and John Skelton is back for a second start in a row for the Cardinals who look to break out of their funk. There is no better time to do it than Monday night and I think they have a chance to do it. I think we are getting a ton of value here with the Cardinals at more than a TD. Cardinals won last year 21-19 against the 49ers at home and they can sure do it again.

They are 3rd in thid down defense while the 49ers are 8th, both teams are in the bottom of the league in converting third downs 21st for the 49ers and 25th for the Cardinals. Bot teams also struggle in the red zone to score TD's rather than FG's, but I think the Cardinals have a better chance on Monday night considering they have an elite RZ WR in Fitzgerald. The 49ers have also given up 100% TD's in the red zone in their road games this year and are overall ranked 17th. A closer look at the 49ers and you see a team that has continued to digress on defense and offense. I think they are still living off what they did last year and earlier this year to bad teams. The Cardinals should be able to run the ball a little bit after Lerod Stephens-Howling ran for more than 100 yards last week against the Vikings on the road in which they were +147 total yards. So the idea that this team can't move the ball is a bit over hyped as well. Also the 49ers in their last 3 games are allowing 4.4 ypc and they allowed 4.7 ypc against Seattle at home. Don't be shocked to see Arizona at home move the ball better than San Fran.

Giants -1 5.5* NFL POD
I love the Giants in this spot, now only are they 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 road games, but they are 3-0 in Dallas since their new stadium opened up. The Giants are fully motivated and a better overall coached team and after losing the match up to the Cowboys to open the season this game because crucial to their season and I think they'll win it.

Cowboys lost their leader on defense and best tackler in Sean Lee so that's going to have a major impact going forward, but more than anything the Cowboys have to contain with a healthy offense from the Giants and a healthy defense. Hakeem Nicks will be back for this one and the depth that NY has at the WR position may be the best in the league. In the first match up Tony Romo took advantage of the Giants injuries in the secondary and Kevin Ogletree had a huge game, well that's not happening today. The Giants also should be better against the run, while the Cowboys should be without Demarco Murray and Felix Jones is also banged up.

Statistically the Cowboys defense has been great, but they haven't exactly gone up against the best offenses. Look for Romo to make plenty of mistakes in this game and for the Giants offense to click when it has to.

TCU +7.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; TCU +240 1* PLAY
TCU continues to fly under the radar and they are a few plays from being 7-0 this year. TCU is the best offense and defense that Oklahoma State has faced this season to date and they'll have their hands full at home against a well coached team that is playing more freshman than anyone in the country, but they are quality freshmen like Devonte Fields who already has 7.5 sacks. TCU brings the Big 12's best defense to town as they are going up against a balanced offense from Oklahoma State. The Cowboys though like TCU are having some issues at QB, although it has never mattered in the past we have seen their offense sputter a bit in conference play.

TCU went into three OT's with Texas Tech, an offense that's very similar to Oklahoma State. I would say Texas Tech has a better offense and clearly a more experienced QB in Seth Doege as Oklahoma State is getting ready to start a true freshman in Wes Lunt who has played this season already. TCU lead the Big 12 in interceptions, run defense, third down defense so it will be a challenge for Oklahoma State and despite the 56 points they gave up to Texas Tech they actually held Doege to under 200 yards passing for 3 quarters + 4 minutes before they started to get picked apart. Their defense has gotten beat by some big plays, but that's something that good coaching fixes and that's what Gary Patterson has, he has a solid approach and motivates his players and I"m confident they'll fix this issue.

We spoke about Oklahoma State's offense and Johnathan Randle is explosive out of the backfield but TCU is 27th against the run. Oklahoma State does not have the defense that Texas Tech has this year and they will have their hands full with Trevone Boykin who has put up 105 points the last two weeks since taking over at QB for Casey Pachal. He's a dual threat QB and that's something that Oklahomas State has not faced since their road game to Arizona where they gave up 59 points. If TCU can avoid turnovers they win and I think they will here on the road because Oklahoma State has not forced the turnovers like they did a year ago to win games. They sit 117th in takeaways and 105th in turnover margin so if anything TCU should be able to expose Oklahoma State's new QB who hasn't faced a defense that can get into the backfield like TCU.

Some other key stats. tCU is 5th in third down defense and they've been good on the road holding opponents to just 25% conversions. Oklahoma State is 9th in converting third downs but they've been successful going up against teams that are ranked on average 71st in stopping opponents on third downs. TCU can stop the run on first down and set up third and longs. TCU on the other hand is starting to get their offense clicking over the last three games they have converted on third down 47% of the time. Oklahoma State is nothing special ranked 55th at stopping third down conversions. To win this game TCU has to score TD's not field goals. It's something they struggled with against Texas Tech, as they kicked 6 field goals, but it still took triple OT for Tech to escape with a win. Now Tech has been better in red zone defense than Oklahoma State as the Cowboys have allowed 71% TD's in conference play and 71% overall on the year. Their offense also has struggled scoring TD's in the red zone just 46% a far cry from their 72% season average. TCU has hold opponents to 53% TD's in the red zone and should give Oklahoma State issues.

Louisville -3 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* NCAAF POD
I like Louisville in this spot tonight as they were clearly looking ahead to this game on their calendar and it showed when they struggled against South Florida. The biggest difference in this game is the QB and Louisville holds a significant advantage there with Munchie Legaux coming off his first road game this year throwing 2 INT's and now he'll play in an even more hostile environment. Legaux has completed just 44% of his throws on the road and 53% overall, while Bridgewater has been elite like with 73% completions and 80% at home which include 7 TD and 0 INT's!

Louisville's run defense has also been better ranked 48th to the Bearcats 67th ypc run defense. Cinci has given up 5.1 ypc on the ground on the road and will have their hands full with 2 capable RB's and a mobile QB in Bridgewater. Louisville now has lost to Cinci 4 years in a row and many of the players know this is the hump they have to get over and I think they will here tonight. Cinci will also be without their leader on defense in Walter Stewart who is their top pass rusher that should go along way as Louisville is 6th in third down conversions . I think they'll be able to convert on this Cinci defense that's having issues stopping the run. Louisville's offense also has been great in the red zone converting 80% of their trips into TD's compared to Cinci's 59% and their offense has struggled in conference games just 5 RZ trips for the Bearcats resulting in 2 TD's. I think Louisville has a significant advantage there as well.

We started to see it last game with Louisville getting a bit more aggressive on defense led by DE Lorenzo Mauldin and I think we see it again under the lights on Friday. It's a big key when Louisville or any defense can concentrate on a one dimensional offense like Cinci. I wouldn't be afraid of Legaux's ability other than the deep threats because he's just not accurate. I expect Louisville to force him into turnovers as this is his biggest game of his career. Meanwhile Bridgewater seems cool as a cucumber and should be able to move this offense. This is the best QB Cinci's defense has faced this year as they've faced 2 FCS foes and a group of over rated teams with the exception of Toledo who upset them last week.

MIN/TB U43.5 4.4* NFL POD; TB +210 1*, TB +11.5/U49.5 2.2* PLAY
I love our odds with these three plays tonight. The Vikings defense have played very well this season and now their pass rush is starting to click as they had 7 sacks last game. The Bucs are a bit better protecting the QB, but they should still be under a little pressure as the Vikings can get a pass rush with 3 and 4 guys. Freeman has not shown he can beat coverage teams with 7 or 8 guys going back in coverage. I think TB can win this game, but I don't think it will be because they put up a ton of points.

On the other side the Bucs are so under rated. This team is the #1 in run defense allowing just 2.8 ypc on the road and 3.1 overall. The Vikings strength is running the ball as Ponder has struggled of late and lets be honest he really only has one weapon in Percy Harvin. The Vikings won't be able to fully take advantage of the Bucs most glaring weakness which is defending the pass. This run defense is the real deal led by McCoy as they have faced 4 top 10 rushing offenses.

TB had a terrible defensive performance in their last game giving up 35 points to Drew Brees but that was to be expected. Any time this defense has given up points they bounce back with a solid defensive effort: 10, 16, 10 and I expect them to do the same here tonight. The Vikings have benefited by an easy schedule and some of the key stats just don't translate well for them here today.

First they go up against a defense that's ranked in the top of the league in red zone defense and 3rd down defense as the Bucs are ranked 4th allowing just 36% TD's on red zone opportunities and they've faced 3 top 10 red zone offenses while their third down defense has allowed just 35% conversions and 34% on the road good for 8th best. Vikings on the other hand are 24th in third down defense and have allowed 44% conversions at home. In the red zone they have been worse allowing 47% ranked 12th. They should be able to contain Tampa however as they are only allowing 41% TD's at home. Tampa is 7th in TD%'s on offense and they've faced just as many good red zone defenses as the Vikings. I like Tampa's chances to come up with a shocking win as I think many are over hyping the Vikings who have a one dimensional offense that throws to Harvin and Rudolph in the red zone look for safety Baron to take away Rudolph who hasn't been playing as well as we see a lot of field goals tonight.

Arkansas State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is a huge game for both parties in the Sun Belt race and should hold a playoff type atmosphere.

Lions/Bears U47 4.4* NFL POD; Bears -0.5/Under 53 3* teaser
I love this play tonight despite the Lions ability in the passing game which is one reason why I think we have a high total here. Guess what in Stafford's two games in Chicago he's averaged 5.2 and 5.5 yards per pass. That's a slow moving offense and the Bears have a group of sure tacklers. The Lions also don't pass nearly as much on the road as they do at home and even if they pass a ton I'm not concerned with this going over. Stafford threw 63 times a few years ago and still only managed 13 points.

Chicago's offense on the other hand should have its own issues in the red zone and overall. First of all they are not great at protecting their QB ranked 27th in sack %, Detroit just came off an excellent game from their defensive line last week with 10 tackles for loss and 3 sacks vs. the Eagles. The Lions will have to stop the run here because the Bears run the ball 49% at home and overall they are 27th in passing %. They go up against a Lions defense that is #1 in red zone defense and the Bears are already struggling in the red zone ranking 23rd.

The Bears defense is also in the top 10 in red zone defense and 3rd in third down defense and they only allow 21% conversions at home. Now the Lions are more of a threat but they are still one dimensional and are only converting 33.85% of their third downs themselves. Both offenses also have continued to be hurt by the penalties. I expect the under in this game as both QB's have not played very well this year and going up against a familiar opponent the same should continue as these teams know each other extremely well. I expect a lot of slow moving drives and a lot of field goals, but in the end Lovie Smith is 8-2 on MNF and they are 5-3 following a bye. Look for them to continue that trend with a win in a low scoring game.

Rams +6 5.5* POD, odds at SIA, Bovada and others
I found these odds all over the place, but I"m comfortable if you get it at +5 as well. All of a sudden GB gets a win on the road against a good team and they are back? I still think the Packers have a ton of issues and they are one of the more arrogant bunch of players who go on the road to play in St. Louis, a very difficult place to play. GB is all banged up in their front 7 and they will have their hands full with the Rams running game that just ran all over the then #1 run defense in Miami. In fact they put up 462 yards vs. one of the top defenses and they did it on the road. They went on to lose that game so much of that story is hidden by their 2-5 field goals that cost them the game. I'm fine with that as the perception of most is, "same old Rams." Many are jumping on the Packers and I'm not buying it.

The Rams have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and GB is a one dimensional offense that will have issues going up against the Rams, because the Rams are one of the best pass defenses in the league. It starts up fornt where they are 7th in sack %, and get to the QB 10.34% of drop backs. That does not bode well for Aaron Rodgers who is not having as good of a year. Rodgers has been sacked 12.2% of the time he drops back on the road and now without Cedric Benson he's thin at RB. I just think the Rams offense is improving and going up against GB's 27th ranked RZ defense where they have struggled will only help them in this game. I think the Rams have a lot of confidence now and could win this game outright because of their strengths. Look for Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan to make some impact plays when Rodgers throws the ball.

Browns +2 4.4* play
The Browns are so under rated and we had them in a huge win last week. This game is interesting as it's a repeat of the Fiesta Bowl in Brandon Weeden vs. Andrew Luck. Weeden just has more talent and balance behind him on both sides of the ball and the strengths really match up well for him in this game. First of all the Browns easily could be 3-0 on the road with chances to win all three games vs. the Ravens, Giants and Bengals and that's saying a lot since all three were in the playoffs last year.

The Colts were exposed a bit last week in New York allowing 252 rushing yards to an offense that hadn't been able to run the ball all year. The Browns should have success doing both passing and running and I'll tell you why. Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty are as good as any tandem in the league, yep I said it. and now they finally get to go up against a run defense that's just not very good in the Colts ranked 29th. This will be a good game for them as they won't have to throw the ball on every play. Both of these teams are 28th and 29th in fewest run play % which says something about their faith in the QB.

At the end of the day Weeden will be able to find some open receivers because they will have a working running game and the Colts edge pressure won't be a factor against the Browns who are in the top 10 in protecting their QB. Browns have Joe Thomas and Michael Schwartz protecting the dge who are as good as any. Look for the Browns to be able to also score TD's and not field goals as the Colts are 32nd in red zone defense allowing 73.68% TD's while the Browns are 15th 50%.

Nebraska -6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love Nebraska in this spot coming off a bye this team faces Northwestern a team that came into their building last year and won 28-25 when Nebraska was 17.5 point favorites. Now they get to return the favor in NW's home field which won't be much of a home field advantage. This game will be close to 50% Huskers fans because Northwestern just does not sell out and that will make this a neutral site type atmosphere and add in the fact that Nebraska has revenge and is off a bye and I really like the Huskers this weekend.

Nebraska's key here is Taylor Martinez and the running game, but don't sleep on Martinez passing the ball. He had his best game against Northwestern last year 28/37 for 289 yards and 2 TD. The running game is deep for Nebraska with the healthy Rex Burkhead back and the emergence of Ameer Abdullah leading the nations 5th best running team. Nebraska is actually ranked 2nd from a yards per carry perspective. Now Northwestern built this team to stop the run and they are doing it ranked 32nd allowing just 3.6 ypc. However, they have faced nobody that can run the ball so that ranking is a little deceiving. The average rushing offense ypc team they have faced is 86th. When Northwestern sells out to stop the run Martinez has shown the capability to beat you deep and I think they are well on their way to doing that in this game. Martinez has improved as a passer completing 66% of his passes and has 12 TD to just 4 interceptions. It pays that he's had extra reps against Nebraska's first team defense.

With the bye week their was a lot of reps for both the offense and defense against the 1st teams. That will dramatically help them in this game. Nebraska really struggles against mobile QB and that's what Northwestern has in Cain Kolter. Kolter really surprised an unprepared defense last year as Northwestern had three rushing TD's and 207 yards rushing while dominating the time of possession a year ago. I think the extra prep and the awareness of Northwestern's ability to run with the QB will make a huge difference. It also helps because Northwestern has lacked consistency in the passing game as they struggled in back to back games vs. Penn St and Minnesota so this idea that they have an explosive offense is a bit over rated as they haven't cracked 300 yards in the last two games.

Northwestern's defense has played much better than anyone expected, but I'm not shocked they have faced some of the weaker offenses and Penn State showed some vulnerabilities they have. I look for Nebraska's WR Jamal Turner to have a huge game. Nebraska's offense is 15th in converting third downs this year converting 50% of them while Northwestern's defense is ranked 55th, but has faced an average offensive third down team ranked 90th and haven't faced anyone ranked inside the top 50. I normally don't like laying chalk like this but in the case of Nebraska counting on having plenty of fans in attendance I am very confident Nebraska will dominate this game from start to finish.

Oregon -7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Todd Graham in Tempe has done a great job so far with his only loss coming on the road at Missouri, but now he

49ers -7 4.4* NFL POD; 49ERS -1/U44 2.2* Teaser
Once again I think the public

LA Lafayette -3.5 3.3* play
The home dog is not always the answer and tonight is one of those times it

Cowboys +4 -115 5.5* NFL POD
I really like the Cowboys coming off the bye as they have had a chance to get healthy along the defensive line with Ratliff and Coleman returning who will make a huge running especially against the run. They were off a bye last year in a similar situation heading to NE as a TD under dog and they led late 16-13 before falling 16-20. Baltimore is not the Patriots and they have not been particularly dominant thus far.

In Baltimores last two games they have shown weaknesses against the run and against the pass. They gave up 214 yards rushing to the Chiefs who don't hide the fact that they are going to run the ball and they gave up 320 yards passing to a rookie QB without any elite receivers. Cowboys have plenty of receivers and when given time Romo is capable of finding them. Austin and Dez Bryant are arguably as good of a tandem in the league and it's no coincidence that Dallas has lost their two games against top 10 sack %. Well not to worry because this is not the same Ravens pass rush or overall defense. They are 24th in sack % and if Jason Garrett is a decent offensive mind he will stop throwing the ball 68% of the time and get a balanced attack. I think the time off will help with that strategy.

On third down the Cowboys have been better believe it or not ranking 12th on defense and 18th on offense which is better than the Ravens 16th and 24th rankings. In the end this will be a hard fought game resulting in the Cowboys having a shot to win or leading late.

Iowa State +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa State +220 1* bonus
This is probably my favorite game all year and I feel most confident with it as Iowa State matches up extremely well with Kansas State. This is a pretty big rivalry with the teams separated by 350 miles and have a history of 95 meetings. For Iowa State players they have never beaten Kansas State. The last 4 match ups have been decided by 8, 1, 7, and 7 points with 3 of those 4 played at Kansas State and the 1 point loss at Iowa State. With a team full of veterans that were part of the team that shocked Oklahoma State at home last year, Iowa State has the ingredients for the upset as Kansas State's offense is not to hard to figure out.

Kansas State will runt he ball as they have ran the ball 71.67% of the time this year. Iowa State also will run the ball as they are ranked 43rd in running play % at 54.64%. This means the game is going to slow down quite a bit and Iowa State has arguably the two best linebackers in the Big 12 in Jake KNott and AJ Klein who lead a defense that's 29th in run defense form a yards per carry perspective and they have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses already this year. Kansas State is also very good at stopping the run, but they have yet to face a top 50 rushing offense. In last years match up Iowa State actually out gained Kansas State on the ground on the road and held Klein in check 26 carreis for 86 yards and 7-15 passing. However, 2 turnovers did not help their chances.

Kansas State gets by and wins games by not turning the ball over and limiting their penalties well Iowa State is of the same brand as they are 5th in fewest penalties. Iowa State just came off a game against TCU where they were +4 in turnover margin. I believe that will carry over into this game and with QB Jared Barnett taking over the offense he has limited the mistakes and he's made some big plays down field with two 50+ yard touchdowns a week ago.

3rd down offense and defense is a key stat especially in close games like this and I think Iowa State holds an advantage despite Kansas State being #1 in third down defense in the antion. For one they have not faced a top 50 3rd down defense all year long (53, 75, 105, and 101st ranked 3rd down defenses) and now they face Iowa State who is ranked 36th holding opponents to 35.7%. On the flip side Kansas State's defense on third down leaves a lot to be desired as they have allowed 43.46% conversions and they have faced offenses ranked 110th, 49th, 109th and 31st. Overall I just think the resume of Iowa State is more impressive considering who they played. The idea that Iowa State can't run is a bit over rated since they have faced 4 defenses that are in the top 50 and 3 of those in the top 25. Kansas State has had a ton of success against poor run defenses with 3 of the 4 being outside the top 100 and the 4th ranked 77th. You could make an argument that Iowa State would be favored if they beat Texas Tech. Iowa State had troubles because they could not defend the pass and that's something they won't have to worry about too much in this game since Kansas State rarely passes.

Titans +6.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
I think there is tons of value here on the Titans. The public perception on both teams is slightly off and I think we are getting good value on the Titans at home as nearly a TD under dog. First of all the Steelers are ranked 22nd in total defense and 19th in total offense and have faced the 3rd easiest schedule this year while the Titans defense has struggled big time, but looking at the teams they

Browns +8.5 5.5* NFL POD With some of Eli's big receivers ruled out in Nix and Barden and Cleveland being one of the best at defending TE's in the league (ranked 3rd). I see Eli and the Giants deferring to the running game slowing this game down quite a bit. I'm not so sure they can do it successfully. Despite being able to run on Carolina they have struggled at home running the ball which is clearly not their strength. The Giants really don't have a home field advantage and this is the exact game they seem to always struggle in. Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Since opening Metlife Stadium they are 0-6 ATS against teams where they are home favorites of more than a TD. Recent ones come to mind, Buccaneers this year, Seahawks, Dolphins last year.

I know the Browns are 0-4 but They have an extra couple of days to prepare and they should be able to run the ball on the Giants defense that is 26th allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Cleveland is also 12th in sack % allowed which should allow Brandon Weeden more time than most QB's against the Giants front 4 and that could be dangerous because the Giants secondary is still beat up. We saw Breeden throw for 320 yards against the Ravens defense as he had time, but really most importantly is Trent Richardson who is starting to look like the most complete running back in the game. I'll go with Cleveland's overall defense and their offensive line. The Giants will be just going through the motions as they have the 49ers on deck where Cleveland will go for a win to shock the NFL.

The Bottom Line:
Virginia +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
A lot of hype for Duke right now after their quick start, but it's about to end as they just are not going to be able to overcome these injuries that continue to pile up. It's also a great opportunity for Virginia to redeem themselves and turn around their season and it starts with a new QB in Phillip Simms who has looked good in his appearances this year.

Virginia continued to have issues with penalties and turnovers and the move to Simms should help alleviate those miscues as he has 5 TD and 0 interceptions while Michael Rocco gave the ball away 7 times with interceptions over the last 3 games alone. Duke is not much of a defense in terms of forcing turnovers and even though they are ranked 45th in total defense they have faced an average offense ranked 94th in total offense. Meanwhile Virginia has faced an average 56th total offense and has already played 4 bowl teams in Penn State, TCU, Georgia Tech and LA Tech.

Duke can pass the ball I'll give them that, but Sean Renfree might not even be able to play as he's questionable in this one, but even if he plays I'm confident in Virginia's pass defense ranked 40th in completion percentage defense. They play an offense that is very much one dimensional as Dukes rushing attack is ranked 112th in the nation. On the flip side look for Virginia to be able to run the ball a little bit again. While Duke has been good stopping the run they really haven't played anyone besides Stanford who can run and even Stanford is ranked 77th in ypc this year. I look for Perry Jones to have a big game as Duke has faced rushing offenses ranked 106th, 71st, 77th, and 82nd after allowing 5.1 yards per carry a year ago. The injuries in the secondary will be huge in this game too as Virginia's speed will pay dividends.

Syracuse -1 5.5** ncaaf pod
Syracuse and Pittsburgh comes off a bye this week, but Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off byes.