Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points 

The Miami defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in their dramatic 21-19 over the Buffalo Bills last week. The impact of the extra time of the field is minimal since we are in the beginning part of the season. They did play a large number of minutes, but it has not been in consecutive games. I do expect their secondary to be significantly better tonight than they have been played in the first three games.  

Teams playing on Thursday Night Football and had 27.5 or fewer minutes in time of possession in their previous game that they won has earned a 19-17 SU record and 22-13-1 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets.  

Betting on road underdogs including pick-em from week-4 on to the end of the regular seasons that are scoring 24 or more PPG on the season and coming off a win of three or fewer points has earned a 78-42-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989 and a highly profitable 22-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets. 

Bet the Miami Dolphins plus the points and if your moneyline is at +150 or higher, then add a sprinkle amount, pizza money size, with that moneyline. 

Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants 

5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Cowboys getting the point. The moneyline will be cheaper vig, but I recommend to only bet the moneyline at -105 or better.

With the Philadelphia Eagles destroying the Washington Commanders and now at 3-0 for the season, this becomes a very important game for these two fellow NFC East Rivals. The Cowboys are without their quarterback and All=Pro Dak Prescott, but his backup Cooper Rush has stepped in and played quite well against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Cowboys defense also stepped up big and will again tonight against the Giants.

Teams, like Dallas, that are coming off an upset win priced as an underdog and now playing on Monday Night against a divisional foe and priced as a dog of 4 or fewer points including pick-em have gone 10-4 SU and ATS for 71.4% winning bets.

Teams, like Dallas, that had a winning record last season and coming off an upset win, and now playing against a divisional foe on Monday Night priced as the underdog including pick-em are 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 17-3 ATS in road games when the total has been priced between 35.5 and 42 points for his career. 

From the predictive model, The Cowboys defense will keep the Giants from scoring 17 or more points and will allow fewer than 175 passing yards. In past games  played since 1989, teams that have allowed less than 175 passing yards and fewer than 17 points have gone on to a 943-300-48 ATS record good for 76% winning bets, 227-49 SU for 82% and 215-54-7 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots 1:00 EDT

4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Patriots plus the points.

Betting on underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points in the first four week of the season that averaged 24 or more PPG in their previous season and priced as an underdog including pick-em games has earned a solid 31-25 SU record and 38-18 ATS betting mark good for 68% winning wagers since 2018. 

With change comes new opportunities. And Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is experiencing new freedom in New England's revamped offense.

In last week's win at Pittsburgh, the Patriots mixed in some run-pass option plays, which were a staple of the offense Jones ran at Alabama. He also said he has been given a lot more freedom to give his receivers more opportunities on deep "50-50" one-on-one opportunities. Jones had success last week, connecting with Nelson Agholor on a 44-yard touchdown. The Ravens allowed Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 469 yards and six touchdowns against them last weekend, and Miami rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 42-38. Now the Raven’s secondary, limited by injuries recently, goes up against Jones and New England.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dolphins plus the points

Bet on home underdogs that are coming off a game in which they trailed by 21 or more points at the half and taking on a guest that is coming off a win of 14 or more points has earned a 33-20 ATS record good for 62.3% winning bets. If the road team is coming off two consecutive double-digit wins, our dog improves to 17-9 ATS for 65.4% winning bets. 

Also, betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gained at least 7 yards per pass attempt in each of their two previous games and taking on a visitor that is coming off a game in which they allowed 5.6 or fewer yards per pass attempt has gone on to earn 24-13-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past 20 seasons, if the matchup defined above is a divisional one, the record has been a highly consistent and highly profitable 30-14 ATS for 68.2% winning bets.

Plus, road favorites that have outscored their opponents by 50 or more points in total over their last two games and facing a divisional host are 1-7 ATS for 12% winning bets. Bet the Fish. 

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings | 1:00 EST

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline

Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are scoring 28 or more PPG on the season has produced a 40-73 SU record for 35% upset wins and 74-27-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015 and has earned a 50-100-2 SU record and 96-53-3 ATS record for 64.4% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and has NOT had a losing ATS record ion any of those 10 seasons.

When Jared Goff's pass on the last play of the game in Detroit last year sailed across the goal line and landed in the arms of a rookie named Amon-Ra St. Brown to stick Minnesota with a stunning defeat, the identity of the receiver seemed rather insignificant at the time. That dramatic ending on Dec. 5 also turned out to be the beginning of a remarkable run for St. Brown, who has blossomed into a legitimate star of a potent Lions offense. The fourth-round draft pick out of USC has eight or more receptions in eight consecutive games, tied for the longest such streak in NFL history. 

Many Vikings cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers were carved up last week in Philadelphia by quarterback Jalen Hurts in their 24-7 loss, and rookie Akayleb Evans took over for the terrible play of Cameron Dantzler Sr. for much of the second half opposite veteran Patrick Peterson. So, Goff is playing with confidence and perhaps more so than any other time of his career. 

The Lions have scored a touchdown in 15 straight quarters for the longest such streak in franchise history and the NFL's longest active run. They have scored at least 35 points in the first two games of a season for the first time since 1970. 

Oklahoma vs Kansas State 

5% 10-Unit best Bet on the Kansas State plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the moneyline. There will be at least three more College Football releases for the Saturday card, so be sure to check back early Saturday morning by 7 AM EST for those additional best bets. 

A little history and background. Sooner head coach Brent Venables was a walk-on linebacker for Kansas State in the early 1990s and carved out a role with the Wildcats, then began his coaching career there before joining Bob Stoops' Oklahoma staff after the 1998 season. Venables has coached against his alma mater multiple times, but Saturday's game will be his first against Kansas State as head coach. 

Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez also has had strong success against the Sooners. Martinez was Nebraska's quarterback last season in a 23-16 loss at Oklahoma, throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown with one interception and ran for 34 yards and another score. Oklahoma snapped a two-game losing streak against Kansas State with a 37-31 win in last year's tilt between these teams in Manhattan. Four of the last five games between these teams have been decided by seven points or fewer.

K-State is 28-13 ATS coming off a game in which they scored 14 or fewer points. Sooners are 7-19 ATS in home games allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games. 

From the predictive model, we are looking for K-State to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 27 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 19-1 SU record and 15-4-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets. 

Florida vs Tennessee 3:30 PM EST

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline

My research simply states that this is just too many points in this rivalry dominated by Florida. Vols head coach Heupel is 3-13 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards-per-playing his previous game. 

From the predictive model, we are looking for Florida to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 31 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 76-1 SU record and 59-15-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 22-0 SU and 15-6-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Houston Texans plus the points and sprinkle the money line. Also take no more than .5% amount and create a money line parlay with the Texans and the Jets – just in case they both pull of the upset wins. 

Betting on road underdogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that allowed 325 or more yards-per-game in the previous season and coming off a game in which their defense allowed 450 or more total yards has earned an 18-35 SU record and 36-14-3 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. And if the matchup is against a non-divisional foe the record improves to 11-25 SU and 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets. 

Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dallas Cowboys plus the points and a little sprinkle on the moneyline. 

I see this as a massive overreaction to the recent events surrounding the Cowboys and now represents a darn good betting opportunity. Even with Dak Prescott out of the lineup, there is a solid betting system that is not dependent on who is running the offense. Betting on underdogs that were top-level passing teams from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they allowed seven or more passing yards-per-attempt has earned an outstanding 26-10 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the current game is lower than 48 points, these home pups have gone 6-8 SU and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets. 

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points and add a little sprinkle on the money line.

With one of the NFL's best offensive lines and two talented backs, the Browns know what works for them and so does the Jets defense. The Jets shut down Baltimore's running game last week, holding the Ravens to just 63 yards and containing dynamic quarterback Lamar Jackson, who only got 17 on six attempts. 

Jets fall into a decent betting angle as well noting that road dogs of 4.5 to 6.5 points that are coming a game in which they averaged less than 6 yards gain after the catch and forced no more than one opponent turnover have produced a 37-22 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs in the first four weeks of the season, these road dogs are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets.

Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs minus the points.

Betting on teams when the money line prices then between a -150 favorite and +150 dog in a divisional matchup that are coming off a win but failed to cover the spread have produced a healthy 29-10 ATS record over the past 15 seasons. This reflects the use of the money line to group and filter favorable betting situations. Saints head coach Allen is just 1-9 Ats following a game in which a combined 50 or more points were scored. 

From the predictive model, we are looking for the Bucs to score at least 24 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. The Bucs are 22-3 SU and 17-8 ATS for 68% winning bets in road games, scoring 24 or more points, and gaining at least 5.25 Yards-per-play in games played over the past three seasons. 

New England vs Pittsburgh

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots minus the points

From my predictive model, the Patriots are expected to score at least 24 points and outgain the Steelers by at least 100 total yards. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures under head coach Belichick has led to a 81-3 SU record and 75-9 ATS record good for 89% winning bets. Under Belichick when he is coming off a loss and then outgains his next opponent by at least 100 total yards has produced a 25-1 SU record and a 23-3 ATS record. 

Chargers vs Kansas City  

4% best bet on the Chargers plus the points. and spronkle a bit more on the moneyline if it is at +150 or higher. 

Last week the Chiefs offense was in full gear as Patrick Mahomes completed 30 of 39 asses gaining 360 yards including five touchdowns in their 44-21 domination of the Arizona Cardinals, who were a vastly depleted squad. I do not see Mahomes throwing five touchdowns in this matchup against a defense I believe is one of the best in the AFC. 

Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points facing an opponent that forced no more than one turnover in their previous game has earned a 153-105-1 ATS record good for 58% winning bets. If our road dog is lined between 3.5 and 7.5 points with the game taking place in the first four weeks of the regular season has produced a 31-15 ATS record good for 67.4% winning bets.  

From the predictive models, the Chargers defense is expected to force two or more turnovers and the offense is expected to gain at least 350 total yards. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to produce a highly profitable 52-16-2 ATS for 77% winners over the last 20 seasons.  

Denver vs Seattle

Monday Night Football

5% MAX Best Bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points

I like a sprinkle on the money line not to exceed a .5% or 1-Unit amount

One option for this matchup is to bet 70% pre-flop on the Seahawks plus the 6.5 points and then look for Denver to score first either by field goal or touchdown and then add the remaining 30% with the in-game line that may be as high as 10.5 to 11 points. We saw this in many games Sunday with an opponent trailing only to recover to tie the game and even win it. The Giants comeback being most notable in their road win over the Tennessee Titans. 

Betting against favorites in the first two weeks of the regular season in a matchup of teams that both failed to make the postseason in their previous season and with the dog having won between 5 and 9 games in their previous season has produced an exceptional 32-16-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015. Plus, if our dog is getting 4.5 or more points has seen them go 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015. 

Over the last 10 seasons, home dogs facing a divisional foe in the first three weeks of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-14-1 ATS record good for 67% winning bets. And the clincher knowing that these divisional home dogs of three or more points are 8-3-1 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points

There is uncertainty at the WR position for the Ravens coming into this season. They traded Marquis Brown, which leaves second-year sophomore Rashod Bateman as the top returning starter to the offense. The Jets will be a different team this season with rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner, the No. 4 overall pick, winning a starting job. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson, taken six picks later, will be a prominent part of the offense and defensive end Jermaine Johnson, picked 26th overall, will be in the rotation for perhaps the team's best and deepest unit, which I see capable of conatining or even 

Running back Breece Hall, a second round draft pick, is part of a strong 1-2 backfield punch with Michael Carter – and they are healthy.

Betting on home underdogs un week 1 that are facing a conference foe that had a losing record in the previous season has earned a solid 20-9-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1992 and 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets last 10 seasons. 

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the points

Since 2012, home dogs in a divisional matchup in week-1 action have gone 10-4-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

Over the last 10 seasons, betting on underdogs in the first month of the season that are facing a favorite that did not make it to the playoffs, but did win their last two games of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets. Over the past five season, this set of parameters earned a 9-2 ATS record for 82% winning bets.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Texans plus the points

As was the case with the Falcons, home underdogs in week-1 facing a divisional foe are 10-4-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Colts to commit two turnovers and for the Texans to gain 125 rushing yards. The Texans are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS for 83% wins when they have gained at least 100 yards and forced the opponent into 2 turnovers and if the opponent commits 2 or more turnovers the Texans are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets. 

San Francisco vs Chicago

4% best bet on the SF 49ers minus the points

From the predictive models, the 49ers are expected to gain at least 7.75 yards per pass attempt and gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games when the 49ers met or exceeded this pair of performance measures, they have gone on to earn a 19-3 SU record, 18-4 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. If they gain 150 or more rushing yards in this situation, they are 13-1 SU and ATS for 93% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Also, prop bet for 1% and no more than 2 units Over 62.5 rushing yards by Elijah Mitchell. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

4% 8-Unit bets bet on the Eagles minus the points

The Eagles averaged more rushing attempts than any other franchise last season. With JB Brown being acquired in the offseason, that rush percentage will be significantly lower, but the Eagles may still average a ton of rushing yards per game this season. The models project that the Eagles will gain at least 160 rushing yards in this matchup and have at least a 3-minute advantage in time of possession. In past games in which the Eagles met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to earn a 12-1-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Houston vs Texas Tech 

4% best bet 8-Units on Texas Tech minus the points 

We had UTSA, who led for the majority of the game last week against Houston and only overtime saved Houston from an upset loss in week 1. Now, they step up in competition on the road against a solid Big-12 foe in Texas Tech. Ranked teams off an ATS loss and installed as a dog of 4 or more points in a game with a total of 60 or more points (expected shootout) are just 5-23 SU and 8-17-2 ATS for 35% and if on the road are an imperfect 0-12 SU and 2-9-1 ATS for 18% over the last 10 seasons.  

Alabama vs Texas  
4% 8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns plus the points and if available a little sprinkle on the moneyline just in case. 

This is a very intriguing matchup and the public betting community is all over Alabama in this one. However, I think the Longhorn ground attack is much better than advertised and will be able to move chains. When you can run the ball against Alabama just enough to have it respected, it opens up the entire playbook for coach Sarkisian, who is 13-3 ATS in home games following a non-conference game for his career. He is also 16-4-1 ATS in home games played in the month of September and 15-4-1 ATS in the first four weeks of the season.  

Texas is 9-24 SU, but 19-14 ATS for 58% as a double-digit underdog since 1989 and 4-0 ATS over the past five seasons. From the predictive models there is high probability that the Longhorns will gain a minimum of 100 rushing yards and when they have achieved that and are priced as double-digit dogs has seen them cash at a 8-4 ATS clip for 67% winning bets. Also, ‘Bama is just 4-9 ATS for 31% when priced as a double-digit favorite and allowing 125 or more rushing yards to a ranked foe.  

North Carolina vs Georgia State 

4% best bet on UNC minus the points 

UNC head coach Brown is 8-0 ATS after playing a non-conference game, 13-3-1 ATS in road games after playing two non-conference games, and 38-20-2 ATS following a game in which his defense forced no more than one turnover for his coaching career. 

From the predictive model, UNC is 36-5 SU and 31-10 ATS for 76% winning bets when gaining at least 200 rushing yards and scoring at least 28 points.  

Atlanta Braves vs Oakland A’s

4% 8-Unit bets best on the A’s using the +1.5-run line

Betting against road favorites using the run line with a money line price between a 130 dog and 255 favorite and with a total of  8 or fewer runs that is averaging a minimum of 4.5 RPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games allowing no more than one run in either game has produced a 65-47 record, but has averaged a 116 Run Line bet producing an 18% ROI over the past five seasons. 

Oakland is 22-11 making 14 unit son the run line when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons.

NY Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates

4% 8-Unit bets Bet on the Run Line with the Pirates

An alternative strategy and the way I will be betting this game is to place a 2% amount on the moneyline and a 2% 4-Unit amount using the run line.

Betting on home teams that are scoring 3.8 or fewer RPG and has been hitting poorly at .215 or worse over their last 15 games and now facing a good team with a good bullpen that has posted an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned an outstanding 90-59 record good for 60% winners, averaging a +115 dog and producing a 35% ROI over the last 25 seasons.

Clemson vs Georgia Tech 

4% best bet on Georgia Tech plus the points 

There has been an overwhelming amount of public betting going in favor of Clemson and forcing the line to move 5-points higher to +24 then where it opened at 19 points. 78% of the tickets bet are on the Tigers and this is the ‘red flag’ area that is one tool of mine that supports GT in this matchup tonight. 

Heisman Trophy winner and former FSU quarterback Chris Weinke is the GT quarterbacks coach, and he has worked with current QB Jeff Sims extensively during the offseason and preseason training camps. The GT offense will be going up against one of the best defensive lines in College Football, but Sims has the mobility to allude the pass rush and extend plays. He has a great arm that needed experience when to not throw into tight spots and I do look forward to him taking a big step forward this season. He is a dual threat QB that will minimize the Tigers defensive front four attack knowing that containment is preferred as opposed to getting sacks.  

Clemson is 0-8 ATS when the total has been between 49.5 and 56 points in games played over the last three seasons.  

Florida State vs LSU 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida State Seminoles plus the points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line. 

FSU is 59-34 ATS following a game in which they outgained them by at least 250 yards.  

From the predictive models we are expecting FSU to score at least 27 points and gain 375 or more total yards. In past games spanning the last 5 season, FSU is 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. LSU is as a favorite and allowing 375 or more total yards and allowing at least 27 points is just 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winning bets  

Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 on the moneyline in the first two weeks of the season and was a struggling passing team completing 58% or fewer of their pass attempts in the previous season and has eight or more returning starters including their quarterback has earned a highly profitable 30-24 record averaging a +210 moneyline bet good for a 111% ROI over the last 10 seasons. 

Kent State vs Washington 10:30 EDT 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State plus the points 

Betting against favorites that have a new head coach in game one of the regular season that are coming off a season winning four or fewer games and facing a foe that won at least 4 games in their previous season has earned a 26-16 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.  

Washington is 3-11 ATS in games played on turf.  

Betting on road dogs in the first four games of the season, was a bowl team from the previous season and lost their season finale and the bowl games and starting a new quarterback and has five or fewer returning starters on offense has produced an exceptional 37-13-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and is 8-4 ATS for 67% over the last five seasons.  

Utah vs Florida 7 EDT 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida Gators plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the moneyline.  

These programs have only met once prior and that was back in 1977 when the Florida Gators defeated the Utah Utes 38-29 behind 531 rushing yards, which remains the programs record for most rushing yards in a game. No doubt that record will remain intact given this matchup and may never be broken given how the college football sport has evolved over the last 40+ years.  

Since 2006, top-10 ranked teams playing in week 1 action and favored by fewer than 4.5 points have gone 3-7 SUATS. Top-10 ranked favorites between –3 and –9 points playing on the road in week-1 are 5-2 SU, but 1-6 ATS for 14% since 2006. 

Moneyline super system. Betting on home underdogs on the moneyline that completed 62% or more of their pass attempts in the previous season and facing a non-conference foe from a Power-5 conference has produced a 24-16 record for 66% and making 32 units in profits. 

Florida coach Napier is 12-1 on the moneyline in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points for his career.  

UTSA vs Houston 5:30 EDT 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UTSA plus the points and a sprinkle on the moneyline.  

Betting on road underdogs that have nine returning offensive players including their quarterback from the previous season and with the game occurring within the first four games on their schedule has produced an exceptional 65-85 losing record BUT has averaged a +260 wager on the moneyline making $7,700 per $100 bet overt the past 10 season of action.  

Betting on road underdogs that were struggling passing teams completing 58% or fewer of their attempts in the previous seasons and has nine or more starters returning on offense has produced a 22-20 record for 53% winners averaging a whopping +320 underdog bet on the moneyline.  

The betting community is betting Houston with irrational exuberance with 77% of the bets made on Houston and 80% of the money on Houston. This is a red flag to bet Houston and is a contrarian indicator that supports our bet on UTSA.  

Penn State vs Purdue  

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points. 

Penn State's defense lost its top two tacklers from last season but will rely on returning linebacker Curtis Jacobs to help generate pressure against O'Connell and the Purdue offense. With a freshman right guard on the Purdue O-Line, you will see the Lions defense look to bring pressure from that side when Purdue is on their left side hashmark on the field. 

The Lions and Boilermakers are meeting for the first time since 2019 and the third time since 2013. This marks the seventh straight season in which the Lions has started conference play on the road. The Nittany Lions have dominated the Boilermakers in the schools' abridged history, going 15-3-1, including winning the past eight. The Lions are 12-6 ATS for 67% winning bets and 6-2 ATS for 75% over the last eight meetings. 

From my predictive models the lions are expected to score at least 27 points and gain over 100 rushing yards. In past games spanning the last 15 seasons in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have produced a 59-24 ATS record good for 71% winning bets. When priced as an away favorite, an even better 17-4 ATS for 81% and covering the spread by an average of 15 points.  

Ball State vs Tennessee 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Tennessee Volunteers laying the 35+ points 

I must admit, I cannot remember the last time, my predictive models targeted a massive favorite of more than 28+ points, but rest assured the reasons we are on Tennessee could match the volume of the great novel the Count of Monte Crisco. The Vols lost starting receivers Velus Jones Jr. and JaVonta Payton but return leading pass catcher Cedric Tillman (64 catches, 1,081 yards, 12 TDs) to an offense that ranked second in scoring in the Southeastern Conference to Alabama with an average of 39.3 points per game. Plus, they have recently added former five-star wide receiver recruit in former USC Trojan Bru McCoy. The NCAA cleared him for immediate eligibility just last week and he adds superior depth to what is expected to be an extremely strong offense in Knoxville this season. 

From the predictive models, the Vols are expected to score at least 40 points and are 99-3 SU and 86-15-1 ATS for 85% winning bets since 1989 when they have scored 40+ points. They are 34-0 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets in home games priced as a 24.5 or more-point favorite and scoring 40+ points wince 1989 and are 9-0 SU and 7-2 SATS for 78% winners since 2014 season. 

Colorado vs New York Mets 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Colorado Rockies using the +1.5-run line 

For this game, I am splitting into two bets with the Rockies as a 1% 2-unit wager on the money line and a 3% 6-Unit wager on the +1.5-run line getting +160 or more. Since 2004, favorites of –400 or more in a game with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs has seen that favorite go 19-8, but by averaging a –432 wager has lost 15 units resulting in a -23% ROI. In the same scenario, these huge favorites have gone 13-11 averaging a –205 bet using the –1.5 run line resulting in a –20% ROI since 2004.  

Rockies are 30-16 making 14 units on the moneyline revenging a loss in which they scored no more than a single run in games played over the last two seasons.  

Connecticut vs Dallas 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Dallas plus the points 

WNBA playoff teams that won the previous game on the road, lost the 2nd to last game on the road and now return home are 20-17 SU, 20-16-1 ATS for 56% wins over the past 10 seasons. If these home teams scored 85 or more in their previous game, they go on to a 9-3 SU 75% record and 8-4 ATS for 67% wins. 

Also, betting on any team that is making 71 to 76% of their free throws on the season, are facing a foe that is making 76 to 80% of their free throws, and that foe has made 45% or more of their shot attempts in two consecutive games has earned a 24-9 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

MLB had one best bet Monday and it came through on the winning side as the Philadelphia Phillies knocked off the Reds. Here is tonight’s best bet featuring a pair of situational angles with one nailing down winners at a 75% clip.  

Cincinnati Bengals vs NY Giants 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Giants minus the points 

The predictive models show a high probability that the Giants will score 21 to 27 points in this preseason game. The Bengals are just 6-25 ATS in the NFL preseason when they have allowed 21 to 27 points. Giants have a new head coach, and he will be looking to continue to the positive momentum they generated in the first game defeating the Patriots in Foxborough 23-21.  

Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points. 

Betting on road teams in a game lined between the 3’s and is coming off a game in which they forced no more than one turnover in their previous game has earned a 37-15-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

The Browns defeated the Jaguars 24-13 and covered the spread as a 2.5-point underdog. The Browns are a miserable 3-15 ATS in preseason games coming off a double-digit win.  

New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky 
Noon EST 
4% best bet on the Chicago Sky minus the points 

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the playoffs that lost their previous game priced as a favorite have produced an 9-3 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The Sky lost Game-1 98-91 as 10-point favorites and I fully expect them to bounce back with a big-time effort to even this series. 

Washington Nationals +270 vs San Diego Padres -330 

The Washington Nationals are arguably the worst team in MLB, but they were heroes last night as they were my best bet on the MLB Angle of the Day show. This quick-hitting video can be seen Monday through Friday and always features a highly profitable time-tested situational angle and system that you can track and use for your own betting opportunities. The Washington Nationals are my bet again tonight when they host the San Diego Padres and are priced as enormous underdogs. 

Situational Trends and Angles 

The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Marlins in this matchup. 

The Padres are 27-46 losing 40 units on the moneyline when facing an NL team that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of each of the last two seasons 

The Nationals are 7-2 making 11 units on the moneyline following two consecutive Under results in games played this season. 

The Padres are 5-10 losing 11.1 units on the moneyline in home games after allowing four or fewer runs in three consecutive games this season. 

I am going to the window betting the Nationals on the +1.5 run line +140 as offered at FanDuel. 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies 

4% Best Bet Dodgers on the –1.5 Run Line 

I also like a team total bet of 1% amount OVER Dodgers team total 

Dodgers are 55-36 on the run line when facing a bullpen that is overused and averages 3.2 innings per game on the season; 54-34 when facing a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game, and LA Dodger starter Tyler Anderson is 12-4 on the run line when facing a team that strikeouts 7+ times per game.  

Dodgers are also 31-12 on the run line after allowing two or fewer runs I games played this season and 12-3 on the run line following a win of 6 or ore runs in games played this season. 

Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts 

7:30 EDT, July 4, 2022 

4% best bet on the Blue Bombers minus the points 

The Argonauts are coming off a dreadful 44-3 loss as 4-point underdogs at the hands of British Columbia in their last game. Betting against home teams that scored fewer than 10 points have been a money-burning has produced a 46-34-1 ATS record for 58% winners last 20 seasons and 26-12 ATS for 69% winners if they scored 6 or fewer points, and if scored fewer than 6 points have gone 22-9 ATS for 71% winning bets. 

Also, road favorites in a non-divisional matchup and playing on Mondays are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU.  

LA Angels vs Houston Astros 

2:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 

4% best bet on the Angels using the +1.5-run line 

Angels lost the first two games of this three-game series badly by a combined scored of 17-2. The predictive models have targeted the Angels to play significantly better and have a much better day at the plate and on the scoreboard. Betting on road teams using the +1.5-run line that are facing a host that defeated them by eight or more runs in the previous game and starting a pitcher in strong form with an ERA of 3.00 over his last 10 starts has produced a 30-10 record good for 75% winning bets since 2004.  

Angels are 38-234 on the +1.5 run ine after losing three of their last four games.  

Angels wake up and realize they need to win, but I will still take the +1.5 run line. 

Philadelphia vs San Diego

4:10 EDT, June 26, 2022

4% best bet on the Phillies using the +1.5 run line

Harper has a broken thumb and will be out indefinitely, which is a huge loss, but somehow, this may be the situation, that wakes up the entire roster and has everyone stepping up their game. Even without Harper in the lineup, the Phillies are a formidable offensive force. Harper is a loss, but they have plenty of depth in this lineup to get through the next 4 to 6 weeks without him and remain in playoff contention.

Betting on road teams using the +1.5 run line facing a host whose bullpen did not give an ER in two straight games and is starting a pitcher with excellent control sporting a 1.100 over his last 10 starts has earned a highly profitable 78-40 record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The SU record has been 58-60. 

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics

8:00 EDT, June 8, 2022

5% MAX Best Bet on the Warriors plus the points

Let’s get right to it. The Warriors are the best team in the NBA coming out of the half with Coach Kerr making the correct adjustments based on the first half of action and then anticipating the adjustments that his opponent will make for the second half. That was quite evident in Game-2 and Game-1 as well before the Warriors fell flat in the fourth quarter. Playoff teams, like the Warriors that have outscored their opponents by 25 or more points in the third quarter and are coming off an ATS cover by at least 3 points are 21-10 SU and 20-11 ATS for 65% winning bets.

Warriors are 10-5 ATS over the last five playoff seasons and 5-1 ATS over the last three playoff seasons coming off two consecutive home games. Kerr is 44-26-1 ATS following a game in which his team allowed 90 or fewer points.

From my predictive models, the Warriors are expected to score at least 111 points and have the better and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past regular and playoff season games under Kerr, the Warriors are 284-28 straight-up and 223-82-7 ATS for 73% winning bets; 42-4 SU and 33-13 ATS for 72% winning bets in playoff games.

Bet the Warriors plus the points.   If they are trailing at the half, consider an optional 1% wager betting the in-game line on the Warriors, which should be higher than 3.5 points if the Celtics are winning at the half. 

Colorado vs Edmonton 

8 EDT, June 6, 2022 

4% best bet on the Puck Line –1.5 Colorado +175.  

Edmonton is a terrible 3-15 ATS in Game-4 of a playoff series L20 playoff seasons and 1-5 ATS last 5 playoff seasons. Avalanche is 26-6 money line, 23% ROI and 19-11 ATS, 35% ROI following five consecutive games with at least 30 shots on goal in each of the five games plays this season; 5-2 money line 11% ROI and Puck line (ATS) 101% ROI over the past 5 seasons. 

Detroit Tigers vs NY Yankees 

11:35 AM EST, June 5, 2022 

3% best bet on the Detroit Tigers on the run line and a 1.5% best bet on the Money line. 

I will be discussing the handicapping concept of regression each on the Full Count Show this week as well as my 2-minute quick-hitting free pick MLV videos airing M-F on the Predictive Playbook channel. Bes uyre to tune in for more in-depth analysis of this profitable strategy. 

So, home teams favored by –175 or more that have outscored their opponents by 100 or more runs in games played in the month of June are horrid ones to back with your money. They have earned a 49-30 record for 62% wins, BUT have averaged a –225.3 favorite and the result is a massive loss of $2,.115 wager just $100 per game played on these juggernaut teams. Fading these powerful teams has averaged a +205 underdog bet, making $1570 per $100 wagered for a solid 23% return-on-investment (ROI). If our favorites are lined on the –1.5 run line at =140 or more (more negative, more favored), then the run line record has been 7-8 betting against them, producing a 25% ROI averaging a +140 +1.5 run line wager on our barking underdog.  

Miami vs Boston

4% best bet on the Miami Heat plus the points. Now that we are up to 9 points, this becomes an attractive best bet opportunity regardless of who plays and who does not play for the Heat. We saw the St. Louis Blues wins two consecutive games against the Colorado Avalanche after getting hammered in two home games to make the series 3-2. So, why not the Heat, who positively cannot play worse than they have over the past two games. 

Not all the analytics side with the Celtics. Playoff teams that are coming off a home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 54-41 SU and 51-42-2 ATS for 55% winning wagers including a 41-53-1 Over-Under record. Since 2017, these revengers are 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets including a 21-11 Over-Under record. In the 2021-22 playoffs this series accounts for two of the three previous situations with the Heat winning Game-3 after losing at home in Game-2 and the Celtics winning in Game-4 after losing in Game-3. The other game saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Golden State Warriors in Game-4 after losing at home in Game-3. These three situations have combined for a 3-0 SU and ATS record. 

Playoff teams, like the Heat, that are coming off a double-digit home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 15-15 SU and 17-12 ATS for 59% winning bets including a 17-13 Over-Under record spanning the last 20 seasons. I see at least 3-points in value betting on the Heat and somehow, they are going to will their ways to force a Game-7.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

9:00 EDT, May 26, 2022

4% Best Bet on the Golden State Warriors

Let’s get right to it. The Warriors won the first three games and lost in Game-4 on the road in this Western Conference best-of-seven finals. Teams, like the Warriors, that have won the first three games to start a conference or NBA finals and failed to get the sweep in their previous game go on to a 15-3 straight-up record and a 13-5 ATS record for 72% winning bets including 9-8-1 Over-Under spanning the last 20 seasons. If installed as a home favorite, they are 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS for 67% winners.

The Warriors are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this postseason, with an average winning margin of 118-103 and have covered the spread by an average of 7.8 PPG. They have never lost Games 4-5 consecutively after taking a 3-0 lead. 

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

8:30 EDT, May 21, 2022

5% MAX Best Bet on the Miami Heat plus the points

No. 1 seeds in the NBA playoffs are 51-37 ATS when coming off a home loss, 16-10-1 ATS for 62% winning bets when coming off a home loss and taking to the road for Game-3 of any round. Top seeds are 21-11 ATS for 65.6% winners when coming off a double-digit home loss and 14-5 ATS in the Eastern Conference. 

No.1 seeds are 12-6-1 ATS for 67% winners when having allowed 47.5% or higher 3-point shooting in their previous game and are priced as the underdog including pick-em and if playing in the Conference Finals or the NBA Finals has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69.2% winning bets. 

Teams in the conference finals or finals that are averaging 13 or more made 3-pointers and coming off a game in which they made 17 or more 3-pointers are just 3-11 SU and ATS in the next game and 2-5 ATS for 29% winning bets in favored in that next game.

My predictive models are calling for the Heat to score 108 or more points, have more rebounds and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio in Game-3. In past playoff games, teams that have met or exceeded these projections are 304-25 SU and 288-38-3 ATS for 88% winning bets. If these teams are road dogs, they have produced a 40-11 SU and 45-6 ATS for 88% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons.

Indiana Fever vs Connecticut Sun

7 EDT, May 20, 2022

4% best bet on the Indiana Fever plus the points

Here is a highly profitable betting system that has produced a 92-50 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on road underdogs that have allowed 70 or more points in five consecutive games and is facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they scored 90 or more points. This system has gone 25-14-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. If our DOG is a double-digit dog, then they have produced a 21-11-1 ATS record for 65.6% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

Take the Indiana Fever and the very generous number of points.

Memphis vs Golden State

4% Best bet on the Warriors minus the points. 

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won between 60 and 75% of their games, that are facing a foe that has covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and sports a win percentage between 60 and 75% on the season has earned an outstanding 60-26-1 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Warriors are 17-5-1 ATS evening a road loss this season.

Plus, the Warriors have lost 6 of their last 7 ATS. Playoff teams that have lost 6 of their last 7 to the spread and are priced as a home favorite of at least 4.5 points have earned a 40-6 straight-up record and a 29-16-1 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Playoff teams that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and have 3 series wins exact are a solid 31-15-1 ATS for 67% winners over the last 20 playoff seasons,

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 

7 EDT, May 6, 2022 

5% MAX Best Bet on the Miami Heat minus the points and I like them even at –4.5 points. 

The 76ers were priced as 8-point road dogs in Game-2 after losing Game-1 as a 7-point road dog. The line opened for this Game-3 matchup with the 76ers favored as single-point favorites and has moved to making the Heat a 3-point road favorite on the news that center Joel Embiid is OUT for this game. This is one of the largest line moves in the playoffs spanning the last 20 seasons and underscores how the betting community has now vastly overpriced the Heat. Being overpriced does not by itself result in an ATS win or loss either, but we are getting paid handsomely to assume the risk and uncertainty with how the 76ers will play. 

Over the past 20 playoff seasons, and a line difference of 9 or more points between the current game and the previous game, with the team, in this case the 76ers having been and road underdog in the previous game and now priced as a home underdog has seen the road favorite, Heat, perform quite well producing a 110-51 SU record for 68% money line winners and 97-62-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets. If the game is taking place in the Eastern Conference with the dog being a 4-seed or worse, the road favorite has earned a 47-17 SU mark for 74% winning bets and 41-22-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 20 playoff seasons and 16-2 SU and 15-2-1 ATS for 94% winning bets since 2015 playoff season. 

Boston vs Brooklyn 

4% bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points.  

Betting on teams that are in a game lined between a 3.5 points dog and a 3.5-point favorite and facing an opponent that has outscored their opponents by 6 or more points per game on the season and with that opponent having played three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored in each one has gone 46-15 ATS for 75.4% winning bets and 44-17 SU for 72% wins over the last five seasons. If this game is taking place in the playoffs our team has gone 9-4 ATS for 69.2% ATS winners over the last 10 playoff seasons.  

From my predictive models, we are looking for the Nets to score 115 or more points and score at least 20 fast break points in this game. The Nets are 13-2 SU for 87% wins and 11-3-1 ATS for 79% winning bets in games where they met or exceeded that pair of performance measures. 

Suns vs Pelicans 

4% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points and consider the money line as an option if it is priced at –125 or better.  

The Suns have won 26 more games than the Pelicans on the season and including this series. NBA Playoff games in a matchup where the Dog is coming off an upset win and with the opponent having won 25 or more games on the season has seen the DOG go 2-11 ATS for 15% winning bets.  

No. 1-seeds that are coming off a loss in game they were favored are 35-26-2 ATS for 57.4% winners dating back to the 2003 season. Plus, if the game is in the first round, they are 12-7 ATS for 63% winners.  

Favorites in the NBA playoffs that are coming off a loss priced as a 7 or greater favorite have earned a 72-15 SU record and a 55-33-1 ATS mark good for 62% winning bets dating back to the 2003 season and 22-5 SU and 19-8 ATS for 70.4% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons. Plus, if our revengeful-minded team is favored by no more than 2.5 points have earned an 8-4 ATS mark for 67% winning bets. 

Bet the Suns  

Toronto vs Philadelphia 

7:30 PM EST, April 18, 2022 

4% best bet on the 76ers minus the points 

I am certainly in the camp that does not see the Raptors responding to the dominating loss they endured to the 76ers in Game-1. Maxey scored 38 points and will more than likley not reach even 28 tonight, but Embiid had 15 boards and a very quiet performance and now I believe it will be his turn to take advantage of the matchup opportunities he will enjoy. The media has you thinking that Harden is becoming a problem on the court. Nothing falser could ever be stated. When he is the conductor of the offense, the 76ers ball movement and distribution is near perfection and he had a huge game-1 distributing the ball to the correct player at the correct time and his experience are invaluable to say the least. 

Betting on 3.5 to 9.5 point favorites in the month of April that have won three or more consecutive home games has earned an outstanding 49-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

New Orleans vs Phoenix Suns 

5% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points 

In the playoffs in game 1 or 2 betting on the No.1 seed priced as a double-digit favorite has produced a 60-6 straight-up record and 37-28-1 ATS mark good for 57% winning bets. Plus, if these No.1 seed favorite is priced between 8.8 and 11.5 points, they have produced an 8-1 ATS record in game 1. The Suns are far too good to get overconfident and full of themselves and underestimate a surging Pelicans team. Must admire New Orleans’ resilience under HC Willie Green, as the Pelicans have been scrapping for weeks to get to the playoffs. McCollum’s presence certainly made a difference when the Pels came to Phoenix and inflicted a 117-102 defeat on the Suns on Feb. 25 for 1 of those 9 Footprint losses. McCollum outscored Booker 32-30 and made 11 of 18 shots and the Pelicans destroyed the Suns on the boards, posting a 53-37 rebounding edge with Valanciunas grabbing 17 of those boards. What is missing is the fact that Chris Paul did not play in that game that truly had little meaning for the Suns, who had already moved far ahead in the standings. Game-1 of the first round of the playoffs playing at a packed and raucous house will be a completely different environment for the Pelicans and one that I think will be more than just intimidating.  

OK. Playoff favorites that have been defeated by the spread by a combined total of 47 or more points over their last 7 games (can extend back into the regular season) has produced a 15-2 SU record and 13-4 ATS mark for 77% winning playoffs bets over the last five seasons. Plus, 9-0 ATS if the favorite is playing the current game with more rest than the current opponent.  

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks 

1:00 EST, April 16, 2022 

4% best bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points 

Supporting this bet on the Jazz is the following situational betting system that has earned a highly profitable 29-16 ATS record good for 64.4% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons. Bet on road favorites that made more than field goals in their previous game then what they averaged for the regular season. That is all there is to it. 

Luka is out and may not even be available for Monday’s Game-2 and Dallas is a team that is solely dependent on his super star caliber of play.  

One LIVE betting strategy that may happen in this game would allow for an excellent price on the Jazz during the first half of action. I always expect a home team just like Cleveland last night, to come out the gates flying high. Dallas will certainly have the home crowd behind them, and it is possible they get out to a 10-point lead. So, bet 50% of your 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look for the fast start by Dallas to add the other 50% amount at –1 or pick-em and try not to pay more than –115 vig. Be patient and allow the market to come to you and not force the bet and pay too much vig. LIVE odds are highly volatile, and they will move often enough, especially during a time out situation, allowig you to get the price YOU WANT.  

New Orleans vs LA Clippers 

4% Best Bet on the Pelicans as a –1 point favorite and is good to go up to and including 3.5 points. 

Clippers are just 5-17-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in the past five days this season. 

Betting on road favorites (now that the Pelicans have become the favorite) after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games has earned an outstanding 24-10 mark over the last three seasons and 40-16-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 71% wining bets. 

Denver vs Memphis 

9:00 PM EST, April 7, 2022 

4% Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets minus the points 

Betting on teams that are facing a strong opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG on the season, in a game lined between the 3’s, and with the opponent coming off three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 44-17 ATS record for 72.1% winning bets over the last four seasons.  

Memphis (55-24) is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and won't know who it will face in the first round until the play-in tournament gets started. The fact that it possibly could be the Nuggets is a little surprising. 

Denver (47-33) had a chance to clinch at least the No. 6 seed with a home win over San Antonio on Tuesday night but was blown out by the Spurs. The Nuggets need a win in one of their last two games to avoid the play-in tournament, and they can end the drama when they host the Grizzlies on Thursday night. 

Boston vs Milwaukee 

7:30 EST, April 7, 2022 

4% bet on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points 

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a matchup of excellent teams sporting win percentages between 60 and 75% on the season and with the visitor having covered the spread in four or five of their last six games has earned an outstanding 55-25 ATS result good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Celtics are just 1-10 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins priced as a favorite in games played over the last two seasons. 

UNC vs Kansas 
NCAA Championship Game  

4% Best Bet on North Carolina plus the points and a 1% bet on the money line. 

I like North Carolia to be leading at the half and to win the game at +700 at betMGM 
UNC –2 points +190 at Draftkings 
OVER First-Half Points 71.5 points –115 at BetMGM 

What Villanova lacked in length to defend Kansas’ McCormack, UNC has more than enough length, and I see them minimizing McCormack throughout the entire game. Then Agbaji, the stud Kansas leader is going to have to be far more involved and creative and I see the UNC starters and depth off the bench getting that minimized as well. Simply said, I see UNC as the better team and the fact that they are the underdog again, will allow them to play lose and free and at full strength. I know that the last four and 11 of the last 16 Champions have been 1-seeds, but this UNC team is vastly different than any other non-1-seed team, especially seeds greater than 4, in Tournament history.  
UNC is on a 12-4 ATS run since game number 15 of this season, 14-5 ATS when facing sa team that is making at least 45% of their shots in games played in each of their last two seasons, and 15-6-1 ATS when facing solid ball handling teams averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game after game number 15 of the current season. Kansas is just 2-9 ATS facing defensive teams that are averaging 12 or fewer forced turnovers per game spanning the last two season. 

Supporting the upset, UNC is 7-1 against the money line (making +6.7 Units per Unit wagered) when they make 31% to 37% of their three-point shot attempts in a game this season, 11-2 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last two seasons, and 8-2 against the money line (+11.5 Units) in games where both teams score 75 or more points this season. 

Thank you to every one of you that supported me and long hours of research to provide you the absolute best sports betting research possible. Every season I feel a tremendous need to give thanks to and be 100% grateful for every one of you. Next Sports up is MLB, so make certain you get the 75% discounted season-long package on my profile page this week.  

Miami vs Boston 

7:40 ET, March 30, 2022 

5% MAX Bet (10-UNITS) on the Miami Heat plus the points.  

If Miami remains the underdog in this matchup, this 5% MAX Bet (10-Units) is good to go. 

In the Eastern Conference there are four teams, Miami, Philadelphia, Boston, and Milwaukee, that are within 1.5-games of each other for the race to the top-seed for the playoffs. Miami and Boston square off in this matchup with Miami the current No.1 seed and Boston the 3-seed in the playoff standings. Milwaukee is in the 2-seed position and would take on the winner of the 7-seed vs 8-seed Play-In Tournament matchup between the Cavaliers and the Nets. The winner of that matchup becomes the 7-seed in the playoff bracket and would face the 2-seed, while the loser of that game would face the winner of the 9 vs 10-seed matchup, which is currently Charlotte vs Atlanta.  

My predictive models point to Miami in this matchup and a sprinkle of no more than 0.75% (0.75 Units) on the money line. Both Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will be on the court tonight. So, we are looking for the Heat to score 111 points, have 13 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Heat met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 20-3 SU, 22-1 ATS record for 96% winning bets. They are also 14-0 ATS over the last 10 seasons when installed as a road dog of not more than five points, scoring 111 or more points with 13 or fewer turnovers. 

The following betting system has earned a 95-43-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1995, 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the game is taking place after game number 41, the record is 65-30-1 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 1995, and 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Among the 25 seasons, there have been 22 seasons that this betting algorithm has made profits. The 3 losing seasons were 1-game under 0.500 in two of those season and 2-games under 0.500 ATS in the third. 

The requirements for this betting system/algorithm is to be on any team in a matchup of two teams that have won 60% to 75% of their games in the current seasons and with the team we are betting against, Boston, coming off a straight-up loss, but covered the spread 

Southern Utah vs Fresno State 

The Basketball Classic Semifinals 
10 ET, 3/28 

4% bet OVER the posted total 
3% bet on FSU minus the points 
NO PARLAY HERE 

FSU head coach Hutson is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games, 35-20-1 ATS following a home game, and 16-6-1 ATS following two consecutive home games.  

From my predictive models, we learn that FSU is 8-0-1 Over when scoring 70 or more points and making at least 12 free throws in games played over the last three seasons.  

St. Peters vs North Carolina 
5:05 PM EST, March 27, 2022 

4% best bet on North Carolina minus the points 

The St. Peters Peacocks have become the first 15-seed to ever make the Elite-8 Round and will most assuredly be the topic of a documentary movie down the road – and a well-deserved one. However, my models, which do not have any pulse rate or the heart that the Peacocks team has put on display and is arguably the best example of why we love March Madness, indicate that their run is going to end here against no-less than an 8-seed North Carolia Tarheels team. The media, including Lunardi, mocked the ACC Conference and what they missed in a big way was the fact that the top teams in that loop were not having off years, because NC State, Georgia Tech, and other were having of years. If there is one huge take-away from this post season is to be careful when assigning a ‘off season’ discount to any of the Major-6 Conferences. I even heard. Rumor that Loyola-Chicago's biggest fan Sister jean had entered the transfer portal to join St. Peters. (Ha Ha) 

Betting on favorites after beating the spread by 45 or more points in total spanning their last seven games and now facing an opponent that has beat the number by a total of 55 or more points over their last 10 games has earned a highly profitable 49-16-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 14-1 ATS for 93.3% winning bets over the last three seasons. 

UNC is 10-2 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons when taking on winning record foe and 9-1 ATS when taking on a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 4 or more points per game in games played over the last two season. 

What UNC has that Purdue did not is the perimeter threat from many players on the floor. Purdue failed to penetrate the crowded paint are and then move the move the ball swiftly to the perimeter for wide-open shots. When they did, the shots were not made. I think UNC will exploit this from start to finish and force St. Peters to stop packing the paint area and spread them out across the court to defend perimeter shooters. UNC will force St. Peters to expend ton of energy trying to cover the side-to-side ball movement. Eventually, when they wear down and are reduced to a defender running at an open shooter, that shooter will fake the shot and drive to the rim.  

Nothing at all at the greatest and accomplishments of St. Peters, but this is North Carolina.  

Texas Tech vs Duke 

4% Best bet on Texas Tech minus the single point, if this line moves to –1.5 to –2.5, then bet this game using the money line. 

When I write just a few of incredible accomplishments that Coach K has achieved, it becomes even more incredible just seeing it in black and white – if that makes any sense. The Duke basketball program is in the Sweet 16 for the 28th time and Coach-K is looking for his 100th NCAA Tournament victory. He has won a record 1,200 overall games in 47 seasons (42 at Duke) as he heads down the home stretch of his career. How coincidental are these achievements that are at exactly century and multi-century marks.  

He is also two victories away from reaching his 13th Final Four. I do remember that the number 13 has some scary connotations.  

This is a matchup that I see focused on ball handling where Duke is ranked 2nd in the nation sporting a 1.644 assist to turnover ratio against a Texas Tech defense that ranks 9th with a 0.690 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Then on the other side of the court, we have a Texas Tech offense that ranks 166th with a 1.006 assist to turnover ratio going up against a conservative Duke defense ranking 315th with a poor 1.249 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Plus, Tech ranks 6th in scoring defense allowing 60.2 points per game. Duke will look to increase the pace of play while Tech will look to get this game in the mud and to be as physical as the referees will permit.  

So, teams in the Sweet-16, Elite-8, and Final-4, are the favorite, and have a defense allowing 60 to 65 points per game on the season have gone on to a 45-26-2 ATS record good for 63.4% winning bets over the last 15 NCAA Tournaments. Using this simple betting system, you would have made profits in each of the past 7 events, and this is the first one of this event. 

Arkansas vs Gonzaga 

7:09 PM EST, Thursday, March 24, 2022 
4% Best Bet on Arkansas plus the points and a 1.0% amount sprinkled on the money line. The current line is Arkansas getting 9.5 points.  

Playing the LIVE in-game betting lines and taking advantage of the scoring volatility that this game is likely to have through the 40 minutes of play gives rise to the following strategy that I have used hundreds of times. Consider betting Arkansas pre-flop (before the tip) getting the +9.5 points for a 50% amount of your 4% betting amount (Or a 2% betting amount), the look to add 25% more (1% best bet) at Arkansas +11.5 and +14.5 points during the first half only.  

This is one of the best NCAA Basketball money line betting systems and has earned a 32-21 straight-up record for 60% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $40,500 by averaging a whopping +190.3 money line wager. Bet on a solid defensive team allowing 40 to 42.5% shooting on the season and is now facing a team that has posted four consecutive games making at least 50% of their shots and is also making 47.5% of their shots on the season. So, I like to call this money line betting system the “Mother of all Regression Betting Systems”. 

Arkansas is 13-2 straight-up when facing a team that is making at least 45% of their shots on the season in each of the last two seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $13,700 in this role. Arkansas is 8-2-1 ATS when facing teams that attempt an average of at least 21 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS following back-to-back games forcing just eight or fewer turnovers in each of the two games. Arkansas is 12-3-1 ATS after winning two of their last three games and a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 50 or fewer points spanning the last three seasons. 

Clippers vs Denver 

10:00 PM EST, March 22, 2022 

4% Best Bet on the Clippers plus the points 

Clippers are solid 3-point shooting team that is making 36% of those long-range shots on the season. The Nuggets are just 1-9 ATS when facing a team that ids making at least 36% of their 3-pointers in games played this season. 

From my predictive models, we are looking for the Clippers to score at least 114 points and have 12 or fewer turnovers. When the Clippers have met or exceeded these performance measures in road games they have gone to earn a 18-6 SU record, 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. 

Bulls vs Bucks 

8:00 PM EST, March 22, 2022 

4% best bet on the Bulls plus the points, currently at +6 points and is a valid bet down to and including 4.5 points. 

The Bulls are coming off a significant win over the Eastern Conference rivals Toronto Raptors 

I do see the Bulls carrying the positive momentum over to this game against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are just 1-11 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage between 50.1 and 60% this season (at least one-game over 0.500) and just 10-20 ATS when playing against a team that is at least one-game over 0.500 this season.  

Here is a tremendous money line betting system that has earned a 51-30 straight-up record for 63% winning bets and has made the $1,000 bettor a $43,000 profit by averaging a +145-underdog bet. Bet on home teams using the money line in a matchup of teams that are allowing 108 to 114 points per game on the season and playing against the team that is one that allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. If both teams allowed 130 or more points in their previous game, then this system is void. Milwaukee was dominated by the Minnesota Timberwolves 139-119 in their previous game Saturday. 

If the game from the algorithm above is in the second half of the regular season (after game number 41) it has done even better sporting a 37-15 straight-up record for 70% winning bets averaging a +160-money line wager and has made the $1,000 bettor a $42K profit. Just this season, it has achieved a 7-6 SU result, but has made $8K in profits for the 1K bettor.  

Atlanta vs NY Knicks 

7:30 PM EST, March 22, 2022 

4% bet on the Atlanta using the first half betting line 

0.5% Trae Young Over points + assists 

You can bet that the Knicks faithful will out to boo Trae Young at every opportunity tonight at Madison Square Garden as the Hawks look to avoid a season4-0 sweep to the Knicks. He took a bow at center court last Spring when he and the Hawks eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs and the fans have not forgotten this fact. Young is at times a polarizing figure in the NBA and he does respond well to haters when playing on their court.  

Betting the first half line with a road team that is allowing an average of 108 to 114.5 points per game on the season and facing a host that is averaging just 104 to 108 points per game on the season and is coming off a double-digit loss has earned a solid 120-61 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last 25 NBA seasons and most of it coming recently due to the increase in scoring over the past 25 years with a 66-31 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last three season.  

Montana State vs Texas Tech 

1:45 PM EST, March 18, 2022 

4% bet on the Montana State Bobcats plus the points. 

The line opened making the Bobcats a 15-point underdog and has remained at this level amid balanced betting action. My predictive models point to the fact that the betting community is paying too much (almost like a tax) for the privilege of betting the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Bobcats won the Big Sky Tournament earning their ticket as a 14 seed. Texas Tech reached the Big 12 tournament final, where it fell to Kansas 74-65.  

Last season, the Bobcats lost in the conference final, and it has turned out to be a blessing. Third-year head coach Danny Sprinkle had three seniors form that squad exercise their COVID option for a fifth season. As expected, the trio are the leaders of the Bobcats. Xavier Bishop tops Montana State in scoring (13.9 points per game) and assists (4.3). Jubrile Belo is averaging 13.0 points per game and tops the team in rebounds averaging 6.8 per game, and blocks averaging 1.8 per game. Abdul Mohamed contributes 7.8 points per game and 6.6 boards per game. 

The Bobcats are 11-2 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams averaging four or more rebounds per game than their opponents in games played over the last three seasons. Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in road games when facing teams averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  

The Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in road or neutral settings after playing a game as a favorite, 9-2 ATS in road or neutral settings coming off two or more consecutive wins, and 10-2 ATS in all tournaments games over the last three seasons. 

Loyola vs Ohio State 

12:15 PM EST, March 18, 2022 

4% best bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes 

The seventh-seeded Buckeyes (19-11) and 10th-seeded Ramblers (25-7) will meet in Pittsburgh at the PPG Paints Arena on Friday in a first-round game set to tip-off at 12:15 PM EST. Loyola is on a roll winner of three straight to win their second consecutive Missouri Valley Conference Title and are making their third appearance of the past five seasons in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is not on a roll and were upset by a surging Penn State squad in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament.  

Last year while on the LIVE Manny’s Irish Pub Show, Rob Veno kept me informed of the last 1:50 of last year’s Ohio State vs Orla Roberts game. I got Oral Roberts at +950 on the money line trailing by just two points with 1:50 left and knowing that they were the best free throw shooting team in the nation. I sometimes cannot watch a game feeling I may jinx and hope of winning such a bet, so Rob Veno of WagerTalk kept me apprised during our show and man alive that was some great fun I will never forget.  

Ohio State was a 2-seed and there was immense pressure on them to win. However, this season they are not under the media spotlight and come into this game as one of the more underrated teams in the event. An early loss in the Big Ten tourney might be a blessing for the the Buckeyes, who had to make up two games late in the season and played seven games in 16 days to end the regular season March 6. Then followed by the loss to Penn State four days later.  

Everyone loves Loyola and their great story and I do as well, but I cannot bet that way as a pro bettor. The value here is certainly with Ohio State and I believe they come away with the win.  

OSU is 9-1 ATS in road games when facing solid shooting teams that are making 45% or more of their shots in the second half, after game number 15, of each of the past two seasons. They are 8-0 ATS in the second half of each of the past two seasons when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game. Loyola is just 10-23 ATS in the second half of each of the past three seasons when facing a team that is averaging 21 or more 4-points hot attempts.  

Portland vs NY Knicks 

7:30 ET 

4% best bet on the NY Knicks minus the points 

Portland is 9-23 ATS when facing teams allowing 108 or fewer points per game this season. NY is 23-11-1 ATS in home games which playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. Portland is 3-12-1 ATS when playing their sixth game in the past 2 weeks (14 days). Knicks are 12-2 ATS after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. 

Canisius vs Fairfield 

4% best bet on Canisuis 

This matchup involves a first-round game in the Metro Atlantic Tournament being held at the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, NJ. Canisius is 6-0 ATS when facing teams who are attempting an average of 21 or more three-point shots per game on the season and after the 15th game of the regular season. Fairfield is 3-13 ATS After a combined score of 115 or fewer points were scored. In games played over the last three seasons. They are also 3-15 ATS after A game in which they made 20% or worse, of their three point shot attempts in games played over the last three seasons. Take Canisius as a 4% Best Bet 

Rider vs Manhattan 

4% best bet on the Rider Broncos at pick-em or better 

This is a first-round matchup in the Metro Atlantic Tournament being contested on the Boardwalk in Atlantic City. Rider is 7-1 ATS after three straight games in which they forced the opponents to commit 14 or fewer turnovers in games played this season. Manhattan is 6-18 ATS after three consecutive conference games have been played in each of the last three seasons. Rider is 17-6-1 ATS After playing two consecutive games. Installed as an underdog in games played over the last three seasons. 

NC State vs Clemson 
4% Best bet on NC State plus the points 

Here is a highly profitable betting system that has earned a 62-25-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a straight up loss to the current opponent and werepriced as a favorite and with that opponent coming off two consecutive wins by five or fewer points to conference rivals.  

Clemson is 3-14 ATS in road games in road games after three consecutive games where the opponent grabbed 31 or fewer rebounds.  

Minnesota vs Cleveland 

7:10 PM EST 

5% best bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves  

The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to continue their climb in the Western Conference standings with a win over the Eastern Conference Cleveland Cavaliers set to tip-off at 7:10 PM EST at the Rocket Mortgage Field House. Cleveland has relied on their defense that ranks best in the Association allowing an average of 102.3 points per game. The Wolves have the 6th best scoring offense in the league averaging 113.1 points per game.  

The problem I have with the Cleveland defense is that it is based on slowing the pace of play to a crawl. They rank 30th in the league averaging 84.8 shot attempts per game so the defensive points allowed per game would be higher based on 100 possessions per game. They rank 4th in the NBA allowing 106.4 points per game per 100 possessions per game. Cleveland is an average defensive rebounding team and this is where the Wolves have a major advantage and will have many more second chance scoring opportunities than the Cavaliers. The Wolves rank 4th in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.2% on the season. 

Cavaliers are just 33-50 ATS when facing good teams like the Wolves that are averaging at least 23 assists per game and 12-28 ATS when facing teams shooting 24 or fewer free throws per game in the second half of each of the last two seasons. Plus, they are a dismal 3-16 ATS after failing to cover four or more consecutive games over the past two seasons and 0-8 ATS following a game in which they were called for 10 or fewer fouls than their opponent.  

From my predictive models, I am expecting the Wolves to attempt 90 or more shots and will overcome the Cavaliers attempts to slow the pace of the game. As road favorites including pick-em, the Wolves are 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets when attempt 90 or more shots. Take the Minnesota Wolves for a 5% best bet. 

Dallas vs Golden State 

7:30 ET 

4% best bet on the Dallas Mavericks plus the points 

The Warriors had limped into last week's All-Star break having lost four of five games to fall 6 1/2 behind first-place Phoenix. But Golden State returned to action in top form Thursday with a 132-95 road win over the Portland Trail Blazers. 

Mavs are on a 9-1 ATS win streak when coming off a loss. The Warriors Thompson is listed as questionable, and it appears he will not be in this game tonight. If he does suit up the line may move by as much as three points. I like the Mavs no matter what Thompson’s status becomes. So, a suggested strategy is to bet 50% of your 4% bet size now and then wait till the game is within 30-minutes of tip-off and add the remaining 50% amount. 

Mavs are 21-9 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  

Here is an excellent betting system that has earned a 26-8 ATS record for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet on road underdogs in the second half of the season (after game number 41) that are making 33 to 37% of their three-point shots, are coming off back-to-backgames in which they made at least 15 3-pointers and now taking on an opponent that allows 33 to 37% 3-point shooting.  

Columbus vs Carolina 

4% best bet on the Puck Line 

This play is an opportunity to sprinkle the money line with a 0.5%-unit amount. The Puck Line is currently at +100 at most sportsbooks and few +110’s appearing. The bet is reinforced by a super sensational betting system that has produced an exceptional 20% ROI since the 2015 season and 37% ROI for the current season while going 7-9 SU for 44% winning bets. Obviously, we are playing on significant underdogs and these dogs have averaged +155 this season and a +135 since 2017. 

Bet on underdogs that have a winning record on the season and is facing an opponent that is coming off a road win against a divisional foe and sports a winning record of at least 55% on the season. When the puck line for our beloved road team is getting plus money (underdog on the +1.5 Puck Line) they have gone an incredible 12-3 for 80% winners. 

Brooklyn vs New York 

7:30 PM EST, February 16, 2022 

5% 10- UNIT best Bet on the Nets plus the points and is valid bet if the Nets are at least a 3-point underdog. 

0.5% (0.5 units) 

As hard as it is to believe, the Nets have not had two consecutive wins in over a month. I obviously believe that sickening trend will end tonight is MSG. There is always the chance for an ATS win, but SU loss when the bet is on a dog, but when the dog is 4.5 or fewer points, an ATS win generally translates to a SU win.  

In the Nets 109-85 win over the Sacramento Kings as a 2.5-point home underdog they never trailed in the game. The highlights of the postgame press conference comments were about how the chemistry in the locker room radically changed to “Everyone likes each other”. Whether intentionally stated or not, this change in culture is a major positive factor that has the potential to propel the Nets to the World Championship.  

Anyway, this research is about this game and the 5% grading. So, let’s get to it right now. 

The following is a highly profitable betting algorithm that has produced consistent results for many seasons. It has earned a 17-9-1 ATS record over the last three seasons and 36-15-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that have lost five or six of their last six games, has a winning record on the season, and is taking on a losing record team.  

Plus, if that team (Nets) played a home game in their previous game, their record soars to 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

5% 5-UNIT NBA Game of the Month 

JR is nailing the NBA and is on a 73% ATS win streak and his last 5% was a Big-Time winner when the 76ers favored by 6.5 points defeated the Spurs 119-100 and that was his only 5% release in the NBA. This one is reinforced by a highly profitable betting system that has hit 70% winners and includes a subset that is a remarkable 20-5 ATS for 80% winners spanning the last five seasons. Brooklyn vs New York 

7:30 PM EST, February 16, 2022 

5% best Bet on the Nets plus the points and is valid bet if the Nets are at least a 3-point underdog. 

0.5% (0.5 units) 

As hard as it is to believe, the Nets have not had two consecutive wins in over a month. I obviously believe that sickening trend will end tonight is MSG. There is always the chance for an ATS win, but SU loss when the bet is on a dog, but when the dog is 4.5 or fewer points, an ATS win generally translates to a SU win.  

In the Nets 109-85 win over the Sacramento Kings as a 2.5-point home underdog they never trailed in the game. The highlights of the postgame press conference comments were about how the chemistry in the locker room radically changed to “Everyone likes each other”. Whether intentionally stated or not, this change in culture is a major positive factor that has the potential to propel the Nets to the World Championship.  

Anyway, this research is about this game and the 5% grading. So, let’s get to it right now. 

The following is a highly profitable betting algorithm that has produced consistent results for many seasons. It has earned a 17-9-1 ATS record over the last three seasons and 36-15-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that have lost five or six of their last six games, has a winning record on the season, and is taking on a losing record team.  

Plus, if that team (Nets) played a home game in their previous game, their record soars to 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

The LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals 

5% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points. 

I also like. Placing a 1% or one unit. Wager on the Bengals using the money line. 

Take advantage of the Super Bowl to Super Bowl special for just $699 that saves you $600 over the regular 365-day subscription. This gives you All Access to Every pick I release in every sports including the 5% (5-Unit MAX Bets).  

There is a terrific and highly profitable betting angle or algorithm if you will that has earned a 30-6-1 ATS since 1980. This algorithm has also gone undefeated at 7-0 ATS over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points after posting four consecutive games with a turnover margin off +1 or better and are now facing an opponent coming off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers. 

Remember too, that is NOT the game to “Go For It” - nor is any game. I am betting my 5% amount and a 1% on the money line and then 0.5% (0.25-units) on the 10 prop bets that follow below. It is a fact that I am 18-5 ATS for 77% winning bets over my career and there were 4 Super Bowls that I did not wager on the side or the total. The thrill of winning is terrific, but the agony of waking up Monday with the thoughts of “why in the world did I do that” is far worse.  

The first prop that I like here on the DraftKings sportsbook betting odds board is Cincinnati Bengals total field goal yardage. DraftKings has it lined at over 60.5 yards paying minus 115 vig if you like the under 65 yards you're getting minus 110 vig. I'm taking the over in this prop bet. 

The Cincinnati Bengals has an excellent rookie kicker in Evan McPherson who is 5 foot 10 and weighs 195 pounds and played for the University of Florida. In his rookie NFL season, he played in 16 games made 28 of 33 field goal attempts and made 46 of 48 extra point attempts. In road games this season he was spectacular, and the Bengals were 5-2 in those road games. He converted 20 of 21 extra points for 95% and made 100% going 14 for 14 in field goal attempts. In the seven road games he accounted for 62 points. 

From long range, those field goals of 50 or more yards McPherson made 11 of 13 attempts on the season. So, let's see what other prop bets are attractive for this Super Bowl. 

McPherson OVER 7.5 pts -135 

Mcpherson is lined at 7 1/2 points. Betting the over in the number of points he will be accountable for does cost minus 135 vig but I think he will kick at least two field goals and make two extra points that right there is eight points in total, so I like over 7 1/2 points coming from Evan McPherson of the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Ja’Marr Chase +900 to score first TD of the game 
Ja’Marr Chase +900to score last TD of the game  
Odell Beckham, Jr first to score a Rams TD +600 

Another player prop is involving touchdowns scored. I like Ja’Marr Chase wide receiver for Cincinnati at plus 900 to be the first player to score a touchdown. I also like him at plus 900 to score the last touchdown of the game. Odell Beckham, Jr. is a wide receiver and one of the many weapons on the Rams offense. He is lined at plus 600 to be the first scorer of a touchdown by the Rams offense. 

Game Alternative Line Prop Bets 
Bengals –3.5 + UNDER 55.5 points +400 
Bengals –6.5 + UNDER 50.5 points +725 
Bengals –6.5 + UNDER 55.5 points +575 

Kupp and Higgins anytime TD + under 54.5 points +725 

Kupp, Chase, Mixon, and Beckham, Jr. All score anytime TD +1250 

Joe Mixon Rushing yards greater than the 4th Round score of the Winner of PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open Event –110 

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bengals to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer number of turnovers. In past games over the last three seasons, the Bengals are 16-3 ATS for 84.2% winning bets and when they have been the dog they are 8-2 SU, 10-0 ATS for 100% winners. Good Luck and TY for a terrific season on the NCAAF + NFL gridiron.  

Arkansas vs Alabama 

4% Best Bet on Alabama minus the points 

This is a matchup in which the market has overvalued Arkansas and undervalued Alabama. Arkansas has won 9 straight games and are 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games. The Tide is 156-9 on the season and have covered 9 of those games while losing 14 and are just 2-8 ATS over their last 10.  

Arkansas is coming off a program hallmark in defeating then No.1 Auburn 80-76 on their home floor as 1.5-point underdogs. So, an overall performance regression is likely for Arkansas. Tide was ranked 14th in the preseason polls and as high as No. 6 in the poll released the week of December 13. They have not been ranked in the past 4 weeks and are a team that has all the strengths and talent to regain a ranking in the polls in the weeks ahead.  

Arkansas is 5-16 ATS off an upset win installed as a home underdog.  

St. Joes vs UMASS 

Noon EST 
4% Best Bet on the St. Joes Hawks plus the points 

SJU is 7-0 ATS in the second half of each of the last two seasons when facing an opponent that is forcing an average of 14 or fewer turnovers per game. They are 11-3 ATS when facing teams that are committing an average of 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. SJU head coach Lange is 9-1 ATS following a game in which his Hawks had two or fewer steals.  

Texas vs Baylor 

Noon 

4% best bet on Texas plus the points 

Texas is 8-1 ATS in road games following a game in which they made at least 78% of their free throws in games played over the last three seasons. They are also 13-3-1 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival in games played over the last three seasons. Baylor head coach Drew is just 26-42 ATS after winning 15 or more of his Bears last 20 games. Texas skipper Beard is 13-3 ATS in road games in the second half of the season (After Game number 15) facing opponents averaging 16 or more assist per game.  

Northern Arizona vs Northern Colorado 
4% Best Bet on Northern Colorado minus the points 

NCU is 14-3 ATS when taking on an opponent that is averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers per game in games played in the second half of each of the last three seasons; 27-14 ATS for full seasons. NAU is just 1-7 ATS this season in games lined between 140 and 149.5 points and 80-112 ATS over the last 25 seasons when playing their second game in three days.  

NAU head coach Burcar is a money-burning 9-18 ATS with the total between 140 and 149.5 points and just 12-22 ATS playing with revenge. This past Saturday NCU took to the road and defeated NAU 74-71, but failed to cover the number as 5.5 point-favorites. 

Arizona vs Arizona State 

4% best bet on Arizona minus the points.  I believe the market is more likely to see bets being placed on ASU getting double digits following their shocking triple overtime win over then-No.3 UCLA Saturday. So, consider betting 50% of your normal bet size right away and then look at the market after 5 EST and add the remaining 50%, hopefully at a lower price tag. 

ASU is 8-21 ATS when taking on an excellent ball handling team that is averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. ASU is 5-14 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points. Arizona is 8-1 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149 points this season. ASU is 25-44 ATS when priced as a double-digit underdog over the last 25 seasons.  

Phoenix vs Chicago 
4% bet on the Chicago Bulls 

Bulls are coming off a 119-108 home loss to the 76ers, in which Embiid scored 40 points. He was not the high scorer in the game as DeMar DeRozan scored 45 points including 9 rebounds and 7 assists. The Bull have been playing without forward Zach Levine, who is suffering from back spasms. I do expect the Bulls to bounce back from the loss Sunday and get the ATS win tonight. They are 19-7 SU, 17-9 ATS for 65% winning bets in their home games this season. 

Here is a highly profitable and consistent NBA betting system that has earned a 74-40 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on teams that have exceeded the total by at least 6 points in each of their last five games and now facing a conference opponent. Plus, if our team (Bulls) is playing on back-to-back nights, they improve to 13-6 ATS for 68.4% winning bets. 

Miami vs Washington 
4% best bet on Washington plus the points 

Wizards are 43-22 ATS 67% in home games taking on a guest that is averaging at least 23 assists per game in games played over the last three seasons. Wizards are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 95 or fewer points in their previous game in games played over the last two seasons. On Saturday, the Wizards lost badly 95-80 as 8-point dogs to the juggernaut Phoenix Suns.  

From the predictive models there is a high probability that the Wizards will get at least 48 rebounds. In past games, the Wizards are 7-2 ATS this season and 31-13 ATS the last three seasons when they have had 48 or more boards. 

UNC-Wilmington vs Hofstra 
4% best bet on Hofstra minus the points.  

Hofstra is 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets when taking on an opponent with a winning record in games played over the last three seasons. They are 26-12 ATS following a game in which they made at least 78% of their free throw attempts and 33-16 ATS coming off a home win and scoring 85 or more points.  

Milwaukee vs LA Clippers 

4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points 

This simple to use NBA betting system has earned an outstanding 37-12 for 77% winning bets ATS record over the last 25 seasons and has not lost ATS over the past five seasons. Bet on road favorites in a non-conference matchup that is facing a host that is coming off a win of not more than three points over a divisional foe. Over the last 10 seasons, this betting angle has produced an incredible 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets.  

Atlanta vs Dallas 

4% bet on the Atlanta Hawks plus the points. 

The following is a money-making betting system that has earned a 55-28 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet on losing record teams that have won five or six of their past seven games and in a matchup with the line between the 3’s. Plus, if our team involved in this matchup is the road team, they improve to 11-2 SU and ATS for 85% winning tickets. 

Here is a second supporting algorithm that has done quite well over the last five seasons sporting a 50-30 ATS record and 64% winning tickets. Bet on teams that are lined within the 3’s and are coming off a double-digit road loss and now taking on a host that they defeated in their last matchup. 

Monmouth vs Quinnipiac 
2:00 EST 
4% bet on the Monmouth Hawks minus the points. 

Betting on road favorites including pick-em that are coming off win of three or fewer points and facing a shot that has allowed 75 or more points in three consecutive games has earned a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Monmouth is 7-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season. Quinnipiac is 5-17 ATS in the second half of each of the last 10 seasons when facing an opponent with a win percentage between 60 and 80%.  

Quinnipiac’s defense has fallen completely apart over their last three games. They allowed 87 points in a 94-87 win over Marist, then lost their two previous games on the road 85-76 to Sienna and then 83-74 at St. Peters.  

Nebraska- Omaha vs North Dakota 
2:00 EST 
4% unit bets on Nebraska-Omaha plus the points. 

Nebraska is 6-0 ATS over the last two seasons facing solid free throw shooting teams making 72% or more and when the game occurred after game number 15.  

Nebraska is 15-5 ATS facing a suspect defense allowing opponents a 48% or higher shooting percentage. 

North Dakota is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a losing record this season and 1-8 ATS the past two seasons facing a foe that is allowing 77 or more PPG.  

Towson State vs Northeastern 

2:00 EST 

4% on Northeastern plus the points 

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 42 points in total spanning their last seven games and taking on a host that has been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 63-25 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons, 22-9 ATS over the last five seasons, and 10-5 over the last three seasons. 

Take the Northeastern Huskies 

Fordham vs St. Joes 

1:00 EST 
4-Unit Bets Bet on Fordham plus the points 

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that has seen their last seven games play under by a total of 48 or more points and is now facing an opponent after their last three games went over the posted totals by a combined 30 points has earned a 74-41 ATS record for 64% winners over the last five seasons.  

Fordham is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons facing a team that averages 12 or fewer forced turnovers per game. 

Cincinnati Vs. Kansas City 

5-UNIT (5%) Best Bet on the Bengals plus the points 

Yep, after poring through mountains of analytics, fundamental matchup analysis, and the projections produced from my machine learning models, the pick is on the Bengals. Moreover, they have an excellent opportunity to extend their post season for one more game, Super Bowl LVI. A sprinkle of not more than 1-UNIT on the money line is recommended. 

At BetMGM, I like the alternative spread and total parlay betting the Bengals +3.5 and UNDER 55.5 points returning +375 for 0.5-Units. Plus, a second one., which is obviously a bit bolder taking the Bengals –3.5 and UNDER 55.5 points returning +850 for 0.5 Units.  

The Bengals placekicker, McPherson, has made 11 of 13 field goals from beyond 50 yards this season. He is lined at extra points made 2.5 over-under and the over is +105. The Bengals team total is 23.5 points. OVER 2.5 extra points reflects the fact that the Bengals score three or more TD’s and is a much alternative to bet on, then to bet OVER the Bengals team total. So, put me down for 0.5 units OVER 2.5 extra points made by McPherson. 

The Benglas have significant advantages with their receiver corps going up against an underwhelming cornerback group and the backend of the Chiefs defense is below average and that is being kind. Plus, safety Tyrann Mathieu remains listed as questionable and must get through the concussion protocol to be eligible for this game.  

Burrow is three years removed from taking the LSU Tigers to the National Championship, so the bright lights of this AFC Championship game is not in any way going to be an overwhelming one for him. This season on 1st and 10 situations, he has completed 73.3% of his 170 pass attempts gaining 1557 yards including 9 TDs. On third and needing more than 10+ yards to move the chains he completed 77.8% of his passes for 475 yards. His bets situation this season has been on second and needing 7 to 9 yards to move the chains in which he completed 73.6% of his passes for 484 yards including 5 TDs and a sky-high 132 quarterback rating.  

Burrow ranked best in the NFL throwing 82.8% of his passes on target. Surprisingly, the 49ers Garoppolo was second-best at 81.5% accuracy. Burrow led the NFL with a 10.7% bad throw percentage while Mahomes ranked sixth-worst throwing 18.8% bad throws. The Chiefs ran the third-most play action pass plays on the NFL with 147. The Bengals do not need to use play action because of the elite group of receivers and with Burrows being the most accurate ball thrower in the NFL. They ran almost half as many play action plays, with 75, then the Chiefs did, and they have the more mobile quarterback.  

Over the last three games the Chiefs averaged 37.3 PPG while the Bengals have been in slugfests and averaging 20.3 PPG. Playoff favorites that are averaging 15 or more PPG on offense over their last three games than their opponent is just 7-6 SU, 3-10 ATS for 23%. Reid is 1-10 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards over his last three games as the coach of the Chiefs. The Bengals have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games and teams on a 5+ ats win streak in the playoffs are 19-8 SU and 16-11 ATS for 59% and if the DOG the UNDER is 8-2.  

Kentucky vs Kansas 

10-UNIT game of the Month on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points. 

There are monumental traditions in this matchup starting with the head coaches. Calipari got his start in NCAA coaching at Kansas under Larry Brown, even met his wife at Kansas. Bill Self has been the head coach of Kansas for 19 seasons and got his start as a graduate assistant the year after Calipari left Kansas. How fate sometimes knows exactly what IT is doing. Now, the two winningest programs in Division-1 history face off with only a three-game deficit separating Kentucky (2,343-732) and Kansas (2,340-873) 

Jayhawk OchaiAgbaji has established himself as one of the nation's top threats and is coming off a career-high 37 points in a double-overtime win Monday against No. 13 Texas Tech. He presents all sorts of matchup problems for the Wildcats tonight. Agbaji averages 21.3 points, and Christian Braun chips in 15.3. No other Jayhawks average double figures, which reflects their significant depth, a strength Self taps using different combinations. The many different combinations that Self uses throughout any game is impossible for an opposing coach to match even if they do have a strong bench.  

Wildcats are just 7-22 ATS in road games with a posted total ranging between 150 and 159.5 points and 5-15 ATS following three consecutive conference games. Jayhawks are 32-15-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and 68-36 ATS following a game in which they allowed 80 or more points and 33-16-1 ATS after allowing 85 or more points. Moreover, they are 42-24-2 ATS following a game in which both teams scored 80 or more points. In their previous game Kansas needed overtime to defeat Texas Tech 94-91.  

From my predictive models the following angles represent the projections for this game. Kentucky is just 24-55 ATS in road games allowing the host 47% or better shooting; 4-30 ATS 12% in road games allowing 80 to 86 points and 9-48 ATS 16% allowing 80 or more points in a road game. Kansas is 18-4-1 ATS 82% when scoring 80 or more points.  

LA Rams vs Tampa Bay Bucs 

3:00 EST, Divisional Playoff Round 

10-UNIT best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points 

I do believe there is one tremendous fact that provides the ultimate motivation for any team led by Tom Brady, who is 44 years old and is older than the three other NFC teams head coaches. Brady still has a year left on his contract, however, there is reason to believe that he would retire with another Super Bowl win. Imagine being a teammate knowing you can be part of that history. 

Bucs are 11-2-1 ATS in the second half of each of the last two seasons when facing a team that has completed 64% or more of their past attempts and 10-2 ATS facing teams averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and 7-0 ATS facing a team gaining at least 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt.  

Rams are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons; 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game. 

Bucs head coach Arians is 9-2 ATS when facing the elite NFL offenses that are gaining at least six yards per play in the second half of each season.  

From my predictive models, the Bucs are expected to score 27 or more points and have fewer turnovers than the Rams. In past games since Brady arrived in Tampa, the Bucs are 21-1, 20-1-1 ATS, and 11-10-1 over-under when scoring 27 or more points and winning the turnover battle.  

Indiana vs Phoenix 
4% bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points. 

This is the 4th road game of their scheduled 5-game travel through the Western Conference. They defeated the Lakers 111-104 as 5.5-point dogs on Wednesday and then defeated the Warriors, who had almost all starters given the night off, 121-117 as 13.5-point dogs. The status of those starters was announced just prior to the tip and the market had a very small window of time to adjust. I think Phoenix will not bench any starters and will not overlook the Pacers tonight. 

Pacers are just 20-35 ATS facing teams that are making at least 37% of their three-point shot attempts spanning the last three seasons. Also, betting against underdogs that are coming off back-to-back upset wins has earned a 196-133-6 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and if the dog is playing their third or more consecutive road game installed as a double-digit underdog has seen our favorite earn a highly profitable 22-10 ATS record good for 69% winning bets.  

San Francisco vs Packers 

8:15 PM EST, January 22, 2022 

5% Best Bet on the 49ers plus the points and a 3-UNIT bet UNDER the posted total. 

The 49ers and the Bucs are the two highest rated teams in my current power ratings. Despite being the first playoff team to ever play a game with 6-days of rest and having to face a team coming off the BYE, the 49ers are playing so extraordinarily well it just will not matter in thi matchup. I also think the media and others are over hyping the game-time temperatures. All of these professional players have played several games in their college and pro careers in even worse conditions then they will experience tomorrow night. 

In recent weeks, the Packers defense cannot stop the run and are being gashed period. In fact, they are allowing more than 5.0 yards per rush in their home games this season. Did you know that playoff home teams that allowed 5 or more rushing yards per attempt are 5-10 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, and the UNDER is 10-5. So, this works in favor in the UNDER and modestly against the Packers. 

Over the last 10 regular and playoff seasons, betting the UNDER in road games with the #6 seed has earned an amazing 25-6 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets with 58% of the bets going UNDER the total by at least 7 points.  

SF is 15-3-1 UNDER for 83% winning bets when facing teams that average 32 or more minutes in time of possession in games played after the halfway point of the season and includes the playoffs.  

From my predictive model, the 49ers are expected to pass for a minimum of at least 8 yards per pass attempt and will gain at least 380 total yards. In past road games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to 32-14-2 ATS record for 69% winning bets. Playoff road teams that gain 380 or more yards and pass for 8 or more yards per pass attempt have earned a 17-5 ATS record good for 77% winning bets.   

Cincinnati vs Tennessee 
Divisional Round NFL Playoffs 

4-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals and 1.0-Unit Best Bet parlay using the Bengals money line and the OVER. 

0.5-unit alternative line parlay Bengals –3.5 and OVER 50.5 points 
0.25 parlay Trenton Irwin to score and Bengals win +3000 

I am on the Bengals in this matchup and believe they all the pieces in place to earn a historic franchise road win for their frenzied fans. Let’s look at a betting angle that has been highly profitable over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on the OVER involving a game in which a team is coming off a win but failed to cover the spread (they were favored) and now facing an opponent that is coming off a home win. That simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 46-13 OVER record good for 78% winning bets.  

Tennessee is the team coming off the no-cover home win and if that team is coming off BYE or the is the first seed in the playoffs earning the week off has led to a terrible 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS mark for 17% winners.  

Betting on underdogs that had no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing an opponent coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 65-40 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the last 10 seasons including playoffs. Over the last 20 playoff seasons, teams that come into the game on a four-game turnover streak committing not one turnover are 5-1 SU and ATS. 

Arizona vs LA Rams 

4% best bet on the Rams minus the points.  

My models give the Rams the second-highest power rating of the 14 playoff teams and only the Bucs are higher – not the Packers.  

The models also project that the Rams will gain at least 6.2 yards per play and score at least 27 points. In past games in which the Rams scored 27 or more points and gained at least 6.2 YPPL, they went on to an 83-20 SU record and 67-31-5 ATS mark for 68.4% winners over the last 15 seasons.