Minnesota Timberwolves vs Brooklyn Nets
8-Unit bet on the Nets plus +3.5 points and is valid if the remain the underdog.

Consider betting 70% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 30% on two parts consisting of 15% on the Nets at +6.5 and 15% on the Nets at +9.5 points during the first half of action.

Supporting this bet on the Nets is the following algorithm that has gone 53-42 SU and 60-28-7 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home dogs of 5 or fewer points.

·      The visitor is playing the second game of back-to-back nights.

·      The visitor played on the road previous night and won by double-digits.

If the total in the game is 220 or fewer points our home dog goes to earn a highly profitable 30-18 SU mark and 32-13-3 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015.

Utah Jazz vs Washington Wizards

8-Unit bet on the Jazz minus the 7.5 points and is valid up 9.5 points.

Consider betting 70% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 30% on two parts consisting of 15% on the Jazz at -4.5 and 15% on the Jazz at -1.5 points during the first half of action.

Supporting this bet on the Jazz is the following algorithm that has gone 149-38 SU and 120-64-3 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1995. The requirements are:

·      Bet on favorites between 3 and 14 points.

·      The opponent had 13 more turnovers than their previous opponent.

If the underdog is playing the second of back-to-back nights, our favorite’s record improves to 33-9 SU and 29-13 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1995.

Illinois vs Northwestern
8-Unit bet on Northwestern +3.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

The following college basketball betting algorithm has produced a 158-91 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past 27 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home teams from pick-em to any size underdog.

·      Game is after the 15th game of the season.

·      The home team allows an average of 67 to 74 PPG.

·      Facing a foe that is averaging 78 or more PPG.

·      That foe is coming off two straight Over results.

Northwestern plays a bit slower style of game than Illinois and having the home court advantage will allow NWU to control the tempo of the game to their advantage. This is a critical game for Northwestern and with a win puts them into the coference champion conversation and off the NCAA bubble chat.

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks
8-Unit bet on the Mavericks plus the 2 points and is valid down to pick-em.

Consider betting 70% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 30% on two parts consisting of 15% on Dallas at +5.5 and 15% on Dallas at 9.5 points during the first half of action.

Supporting this bet on the Mavericks is the following algorithm that has gone 30-14-1 for 68% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs between pick and 7.5 points.

·      That dog has allowed 115 or more points in each of their last five games.

·      The opponent has scored 115 or more points in each of their last two games.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

8-Unit bet on the Bucks minus the 6.5 points and is valid to 7.5 points.

After firing Adrian Griffin, the Milwaukee Bucks have reached out to Doc Rivers and are engaging him in conversations about the franchise's head-coaching job, sources told ESPN on Tuesday. Griffin had a 30-13 (.698) record, but the Bucks had dropped from fourth to 22nd in defensive efficiency from a season ago, although some of that can be attributed to the loss of All-Star guard Jrue Holiday.

So, a breath of fresh air and the removal of the uncertain status of their head coach has been removed from the team culture and many times this lends itself to an outstanding first game under the new head coach or even an interim coach.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 54-29 SU record and a 55-26-2 ATS mark for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on a team that has lost to the spread by a total of 47 or more points over their last seven games.

·      That team has won 60 to 75% of their games on the season.

·      The guest has a winning record.

If the game takes place in the second half of the season these teams have earned a 38-22 SU mark and 29-19-2 ATS mark good for 67.2% winning bets since 2019.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 33-19 SU record and a 34-17-1 ATS mark for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on a home team that has lost three or more games to the spread.

·      The visitor has covered the spread in 7 or more of their last 8 games.

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks
8-Unit bet on the Mavericks plus the 2 points and is valid down to pick-em.

Consider betting 70% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 30% on two parts consisting of 15% on Dallas at +5.5 and 15% on Dallas at 9.5 points during the first half of action.

Supporting this bet on the Mavericks is the following algorithm that has gone 30-14-1 for 68% winning bets since 2019. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs between pick and 7.5 points.

·      That dog has allowed 115 or more points in each of their last five games.

·      The opponent has scored 115 or more points in each of their last two games.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat

8-Unit bet on the Grizzlies +10 points and is valid to 9.5 points.

Consider betting 70% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 30% on two parts consisting of 15% on the Grizzlies at +13.5 and 15% on the Grizzlies at +16.5 points during the first half of action.

Supporting this bet on the Grizzlies is the following algorithm that has gone 70-40-2 for 64% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road underdogs with a win percentage between 25 and 40% on the season.

·      Our road dog is coming off a road win.

·      The host has a winning record on the season.

·      The game occurs after the 21st game of the regular season (25% of the season).

If our dog is priced at 9 or more points they have earned a 37-13-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets since 2016.

The Heat are playing with two days of rest and coming off a terrible 18-point drubbing to the Orlando Magic and failed to cover the spread priced as 1-point favorites. The Grizzlies are playing with one day of rest and coming off an 8-point win over the Toronto Raptors and covered the spread by 15.5 points priced as 7.5-[point unde4dogs.

Jax State vs Middle Tennessee State
8-Unit bet on MTST at pick-em and is good to a -1.5-point favorite.

MTST is 40-19 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams making at least 45% of their shots after the 15th game of the regular since 1997; 24-11 ATS when facing solid defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game; 15-4 ATS in home games following a conference game spanning the past three seasons; 26-12 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive road losses. JAX State head coach Harper is just 4-13 ATS when the total has been fewer than 130 points. MTST head coach McDevitt is 12-3 ATS after the 15th game of the season playing at home and facing a foe that is shooting 45% or better from the field.

Auburn vs Alabama
8-Unit bet on Auburn plus the 3 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

The line and total for this game conveys an 83-79 Alabama win. My predictive models show an 84% probability that Auburn will score 78 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past games in which Auburn met or exceeded these performance measures in their road games has seen them go 22-3 SU and 19-4-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Alabama is 7-9 SU and 2-14 ATS for 13% winners in home games when they allowed 78 or more points and had the same or more turnovers in games played over the past 10 seasons.

Evansville vs Northern Iowa
8-Unit Bet on Evansville +13.5 points and is valid f they remain a double-digit underdog.

The following college basketball betting algorithm has gone 27-46 SU, but a highly profitable 45-26-2 ATS for 63.4% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:

·      Betting on underdogs.

·      The Dog has failed to cover the spread by 42 or more points over their last five games.

·      The opponent has seen their last five games play Under by 55 or more points spanning their last five games.

If the total in the game is posted at 140 or more points, these dogs improve to 20-23 SU and 29-13-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015.

Toledo vs Northern Illinois

8 EST
8-Unit Bet on Northern Illinois +5.5 points and is valid to 4.5 points.

Here are a few of the situational betting angles supporting NIU in this game. Toledo is 2-9 ATS when facing a team whose defense averages 14 or fewer turnovers per game. NIU is 37-16 AYTS when facing an elite ball handling team committing an average of 12 or fewer turnovers per game after the 15 game the regular season spanning the past 20 seasons. Toledo is 1-11 ATS after having won three of their last four games spanning the past two seasons; 26-13 ATS after two games facing conference foes spanning the past three seasons. NIU is 31-13 ATS following a game in which they scored 75+ points spanning the past 20 seasons.

The current lines convey an 82-77 Toledo win and my predictive model project that NIU has an 85% probability of scoring 85 or more points. In past home games in which NIU scored 75 or more points has led them to a highly profitable 84-8 SU record and 41-14 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past 20 seasons and 10-4 ASTS for 71.4% winning bets over the past three seasons.

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers

8-Unit best bet on the Pacers plus 4.5 points and is valid to 3.5 points.

Consider betting 70% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 30% on two parts consisting of 15% at Pacers +7.5 and 15% at Pacers +9.5 points.

Supporting this bet on the Pacers is the following algorithm that has gone 69-76 straight-up (SU) and 93-49-3 ATS for 65.5% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are:

·      Bet on dogs of 2.5 to 6.5 points.

·      Our dog had a losing record in the previous season.

·      Total is 220 or more points.

·      The opponent had a winning record in the previous season.

·      The opponent is coming off a road win.

This algorithm had hardly any plays prior to the 2017 season, since it was that season that saw the steady increase in scoring in each year since. So, it has not had a losing record since 2016. There is a subset too that if our home dog has a 1.80 or greater season-to-date assist to turnover ratio the overall ATS record improves to 44-18-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota
8-unit bet on Wisconsin -3.5 points and is valid to 4.5 points.

7 EST

Wisconsin is 16-5-1 ATS when facing teams averaging 16 or more assists per game in games played over the past three seasons; 8-1 ATS when facing teams that are outscoring their foes by 8+ PPG in games played this season; 14-4-1 ATS following a game in which both teasm scored 75 or more points over the past 15 seasons.

From the predictive models, there is an 85% probability that Wisconsin will score 78 or more points and have 12 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Wisconsin met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to an outstanding 28-1 SU and 20-6 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. When Minnesota has allowed these measures they have gone on to a 2-21 SU record and 5-17-1 ATS mark for 22% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Hawks vs Kings

8-Unit best bet on the Hawks plus 8 points and is valid to 7.5 points.

Betting on a road team coming off an Under result and is now facing a foe that returned home from a four or more-game win streak and lost at home in their previous game has gone 306-201-34 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1995. If our team is coming off an under result priced as the underdog they have soared to a 36-17-1 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 1995. 

Cincinnati vs Kansas
9:00 EST |
8-Unit Bet on Kansas minus 8 points and is valid up to 9.5 points.

Cincinnati is 9-19 ATS when facing an elite team shooting 45% or better and allowing 42% or lower in games played over the past three seasons. Kansas is 120-74 ATS when playing only their third game in a week; 70-40 ATS after allowing 80+ points in their previous game; 85-57 ATS following a loss.

Nicholls State vs Incarnate Word
7:30 EST
8-Unit bet on Nicholls State -2.5 points and is valid to 3.5 points. If the line drops to -1.5 or lower then use the money line for this bet.

Betting on road teams after game number 15 where the line is priced between the 3’s that are averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers per game and facing a host that is averaging 14.5 to 18 turnovers per game and in matchup where both teams defenses are allowing 42.5 to 45% shooting has earned a 27-7-1 ATS record fot 79% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Cavaliers vs Magic

8-Unit Bet on the Magic +1.5 points and use the money line if the line is between 1.5 and -1.5 for this game.

Bet on winning record home teams that have are facing a winning record foe that has covered the spread in each of their last three home games priced as the favorite has earned a highly profitable 94-53 ATS for 64% winning bets since 2015. I four team is playing on the secod of back to back nights they have gone 13-6 ATS for 68% winning bets.

Indiana vs Phoenix
Footprint Center, Phoenix
8 EST
8-Unit bet on the Phoenix Suns -5.5 points

Betting on winning record home teams that are priced as 3.5 to 9.5-point favorites that are facing a foe that has played Under by 42 or more points spanning their last seven games and also has posted a win record on the season has earned an highly profitable 84-49 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team has a 1.75 or greater assist to turnover ratio they soar to an outstanding 67-36 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons.

From the predictive models, the Suns are 27-2 SU and 24-5 ATS when scoring 125 or more points and having 15 or fewer turnovers in home games played since 2019.

Tampa Bay vs Detroit

3:00 PM EST | NBC
Ford Field, Detroit

10-Unit Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +6 points and is valid to 4.5 points although a drop in the line at this point would be rare. Please remember to bet with your heads and ne er over it on every bet I provide, especially these 10-UNIT max bets which have hit 68% on a 76-35 record across all sports and over 4 years of betting action. This also means they LOSE 32% of the time abd to be completely honest, there is no way I nor anyone else knows with any degree of certainty that this play will win this afternoon. So, a reminder that is a marathon and that I have proven for many years that profits are achieved not in one day or one week or even a month, but over 12 months or a full season.

Let’s look at some of the betting systems supporting the pick from the predictive models.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing a foe coming off a game without recording a forced turnover has gone 41-57 SU (42%) and 65-33 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Making this system even better is that it has had NO seasons in which it lost money and if the game has taken place in any round of the playoffs it has recorded an insanely great 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS record for 88% winning bets.  

If you have watched any my show appearances on ESPN Syracuse, SportsMap Radio, and Rotowire, you already know who important the metric called yards per points is to my predictive models. So, in the divisional round, road teams that have posted a defensive yards per point ratio of 20 or more over their last three games have gone 10-13 SU, but a healthy and profitable 15-8 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 20 years. A YPPT defensive ratio of 20 or more simply means that the team’s defense I playing at a high level and forcing their last three opponents to gain 20 yards on average to just 1 single point on the scoreboard.

If the dog in this situation is priced at 4 or more points they have gone 10-3 ATS for 77% winning bets in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have gone 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. They have gone 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets with a total of 45 or more points. If our team is facing a foe that is allowing an average of 21 or more points over their last three games has produced an amazing 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets.

Green Bay vs San Francisco

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

8:15 PM EST | FOX
5-Unit bet on the Over 50.5 points and is valid to 51.5 points.

8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 9.5 points

1-Unit optional bet on the Packers using the money line

Supporting the play on the Packers is a terrific betting system where betting on underdogs in the divisional round that are on a three or more-game win streak has earned a highly profitable 24-15 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Moreover, if our underdog is priced between 4.5 and 10 points they improve to a highly profitable 16-7 ATS for 70% winning tickets. If the total is 50 or more points, these dogs have been near-perfect going 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that have gone four consecutive games with no more than one committed turnover and facing a foe that is coming off a game where they forced no more than one turnover have gone 23-14-1 ATS for 62% winning bets. In games with a posted total of 47 or more points they have gone 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Betting the Over with any team coming off an upset win, which is Green Bay, and now facing a foe that lost their previous game by three or fewer points to a divisional rival has earned a solid 27-9 Over record for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is 45 or more points the Over has gone an exceptional 14-4 for 78% winning bets.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks

8-UNIT bet on the Hawks plus 2.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Betting on underdogs that are solid offensive teams scoring an average of 114 or more PPG and facing a foe that scored 135 or more point sin their previous games has earned a 56-27-2 ATS record for 68% winners over the past five seasons. If our dog has a losing record on the season they have gone 22-8 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Mercer vs Samford
8-Unit Bet on Mercer plus the 13.5 points and is valid if they remain a double-digit underdog.

Betting on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points on a three game losing streak against conference foes and facing a host that is coming off an upset road win and with a posted total of 147 or more points has earned a 26-11 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

4:30 PM EST | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
M&T Stadium, Baltimore, MD

8-Unit Bet on the Texans +9.5 points and is valid to 8.5 points.

The line is not likely to move and if it does I do not see it going more than ½ point in either direction barring some major breaking news of a star player being ruled out.

Consider betting 6 units on the Texans preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or when the Ravens retake the lead during the first half of action. Another strategy is to bet 5 units on the spread and 1-unit on the money line preflop and then look to add the remaining 2-units if the Ravens attain a 7 or more-point first lead. The negative part of these strategies is that the Texans score first and never give up that lead.

This one is a jaw dropper for sure. Betting on teams in the divisional round that lose the same-season previous meeting by double digits and is now facing that foe on the rod and with a game total of 48 or fewer points has gone 5-6 SU and 10-1 ATS for 91% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Three of these matchups went into overtime.

On January 15, 2005 of the 2004 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers hosted the NY Jets as 8.5 point favorites and needed overtime to secure a 20-17 win. On January 14th, 2007, the Chicago Bears hosted the Seattle Seahawks priced as 8.5-point home favorites and needed overtime to win the game 27-24. The Baltimore Ravens hosted the Denver Broncos on January 12, 2013 priced as 9.5-point favorites and needed overtime to win 38-35. Notice that each of these games had a significant favorite matching the line for today’s game between the Ravens and the Texans.

The Texans lost to the Ravens on the road in the opening week of the season by the final score of 25-9 and failed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point road dog. Rookie QB CJ Stroud took that loss and used it to greatly improve over the course of the season and is now playing at an elite level. He finished the regular season ranked 8th with 4,108 passing yards and threw for 25 TDs with just 5 interceptions. He ranked 6th best with a 100.8 QBR and posted three game winning drives.

The weather will be in the mid-20’s and winds will be at 15 MPH at the start of the game, but will be decreasing throughout the game. So, I do not see this being a disadvantage for either of these teams. The Stadium is a bowl and the wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone, so there may be an added advantage for field Goal attempts with the wind. The wind can swirl in this stadium, but nothing like how unpredictable the wins are in the NY Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands.

Teams that are on a three or more-game win streak coming into the divisional round of the playoffs and are priced as underdogs of 4.5 to 10 points have produced an 8-14-1 SU mark and a 16-7 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Northwestern vs Nebraska
2:15 EST
8-Unit bet on Nebraska -3.5 points and is valid up to 4.5 points.

Nebraska is 13-4 ATS in home games when facing a good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game in games played over the past two seasons; 17-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS in home games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.

Northwestern is an imperfect 0-7 ATS when allowing 75 or more points and the predictive models show an 82% probability that Nebraska will score at least 75 points today.

Hampton vs Monmouth

8-Unit bet on Hampton +11.5 points and is valid to +10 points
2 EST

Betting on double-digit road underdogs that have forced 14 or fewer turnovers in five consecutive games and now facing a host that has played three consecutive games facing 11 or fewer turnovers has earned a 114-73-3 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If the total is 145 or more points, these dogs have gone 34-17 ATS for 67% over the past 25 seasons.

Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors
8-Unit best bet on the Bulls minus the two points and is good up 3.5 points
Bet on road favorites, who are facing an opponent that is allowing at least 103 PPG, and are coming off a game in which they lead by 20 or more points at the half has earned a 61-17 SU (78%) and 51-27 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Obviously, the trade has diminished the Raptors team immensely and I do believe the Bulls will win this game by a comfortable margin.

TX-San Antonio vs Tulsa
8-Unit bet on Tulsa minus the 6 points and is valid up to -8 points.

Tulsa is on a 56-31 ATS run when facing offensive-minded teams averaging 77 or more PPG. TXSA is just 4-13 ATS in road games after covering five or six of the past seven games. TXSA head coach Henson is just 13-24 ATS in road games when playing a winning record team after the 15th game of the season.

From the predictive model, Tulsa is projected to score 80 or more points and commit no more than 12 turnovers. In past home games when Tulsa has met or e3xceeded these performance measures has led them to a 48-7 SU record and 28-6-3 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets.

Detroit Mercy vs Robert Morris
8-Unit bet on Detroit Mercy +8.5 points and is valid to 6.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points and is facing a foe that is coming off a close win by three or fewer points over a conference rival and has 3 or more returning starters than our road team has earned a 65-30 ATS record good for 68% winning nbets over the past 25 seasons of action.

RM is 0-7 ATS when coming off a home upset win.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M
8-Unit Best Bet on Arkansas +2.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Betting on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread by 42 or more points spanning their last five games and now facing a foe that has gone Under the total by 55 or more points over their previous five games has earned a 26-26 SU record and 44-26-2 Ats mark for 63% winning bets since 2014 (10 seasons). If the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, these dogs have produced a 13-19 SU record and 21-10-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and the Over in these games has been even better at 23-9 for 72% wining bets.

The models did not identify a potential OVER bet for this matchup, but if you like it, I suggest betting it LIVE in-game at 137.5 or fewer points and make it no more than 3 units in size. I may put the OVER out on the web site as a free pick with the system featuring just the OVER and not giving away the side.

Georgia vs South Carolina
8-Unit Bet on Georgia +7 points and is valid to 5.5 points.

Georgia is 13-3 ATS when coming off a home ATS win where the team lost the game; 9-1 ATS after scoring 75 or more points in each of their last five games. Georgia head coach White is 25-10 ATS in road games and facing a host that is averaging six or fewer steals per game after game number 15 for his career.

Richmond vs Duquesne
8-Unit Bet on Richmond plus the four points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Richmond is 9-2 ATS this season when facing a solid ball handling team that averages 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Duquesne is 1-8 ATS this season when playing a team with a winning record; 0-6 ATS this seasons when facing a team making 45% or more of their shots; 1-8 ATS when facing a strong defensive team allowing 42% or less shooting this season.

Southern University vs Bethune-Cookman
7:30 EST
8-Unit best bet on BC plus the 5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Southern is 2-12 ATS in road games when facing teams making no better than 31% of their shots from beyond the arc in games played over the past three seasons; 1-9 ATS in road games after the 15th game of the season and facing a foe that has won 20 to 40% of their games, BC is 8-1 ATS in home games when facing a foe that averages three or more fouls per game than their opponents spanning the past three games.

Iowa vs Minnesota
2 EST
8-Unit Best bet on Iowa plus the 2 points and is valid to pick-em.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS following a game with 24 or more assists spanning the past three seasons. Minnesota is just 24-42 ATS following losses to the spread in four of their last five games over the past 20 seasons. Iowa head coach McCaffery is 60-38 ATS when facing a team that averages 21 or more three point shots per game after the 15th game of the regular season.

From the predictive model, Minnesota is just 3-9 SUATS in home games in which they allowed 77 or more points over the past five seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Highmark Stadium, Orchard, Park, NY
4:30 EST | CBS
8-Unit Best Bet on the Steelers +10 points and is valid at 9.5 points.

Weather is going to be an issue with sustained winds of 12 to 17 MPH and a below zero wind chill. The wind will be out of the NNW and will make the one side play mostly downwind with a slight left to right breeze and into the wind with a right-left head wind. So, on kickoffs into the wind it will be nearly possible to achieve a touchback and more likely the receiver of the kickoff will catch the ball around the 10-yard line. I also think you will see lie drive squib type of kicks when kicking off into the wind.

Any field goal attempt with the wind has the potential be achievable from 60+ yards despite the frigid temperatures. Right-footed kickers can draw the ball spinning it so it curves right-to-left with the wind holding the amount of draw and resulting in a mostly straight kick. On long range kicks, they can slice the football aiming a bit outside of the left goal post and allow the wind to push the ball further and from left-to-right though the goal posts. The kicking game (including punts) will be a major factor in this game.

Tyler Bass is the kicker for the Bills and made 24 of 29 attempts (82%) and converted 49 of 50 extra points. For his four-year career with the Bills, he is 32 for 32 from inside 30 yards, 36 of 43 from 30 to 39 yards including three misses this season, 26 for 31 from 40 to 49 yards, and 12 for 19 from 50 and beyond.

The veteran Chris Boswell is the Steeler’s kicker and he had an excellent season making 29 of 31 field goal attempts and 27 of 28 extra points. Through 9 seasons with the Steelers he has made 62 of 62 from inside the 30, 64 of 71 from 30 to 39 yards, 73 of 93 from 40 to 49 yards, and 30 of 37 from 50 yards and beyond. Despite kicking on the road, Boswell brings a significant advantage over Bass in this game.

In the Wild Card Round, the underdog with the better defensive yards per point allowed ratio has gone 23-26 SU and 31-17-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. If our dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points they have gone 13-17 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets.

The team that has averaged fewer dropped passes per game and is priced as a road underdog has gone 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets in the Wild Card Round since 2019. The Steelers ranked third best in the regular season averaging just 0.94 dropped passes per game while the Bills averaged 1.67 dropped pass per game ranking 20th.

San Antonio Spurs vs Atlanta Hawks
8-Unit best bet on the Spurs plus the 8 and points and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs that previous lost the last matchup to the current foe by three or fewer points and with that foe coming off an upset loss has earned a highly profitable 48-16 ATS record for 75% winning bets since 2016. If our road dog is playing on one day of rest exact they have gone 17-20 SU and 28-9 ATS for 76% winning bets.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

4:30 EST | Fox| AT&T Stadium,. Arlington, TX
10-Unit Bet on the Green Bay Packers +7.5 points and is good at +7 points.

I do not expect that the lie will move against the Packers and if any movement occurs it will be attributed to the public bettors., who will be on the Cowboys.

I expect the Packers to get off to a solid start and score first. If they do score first, it would limit the live bet opportunity. So, I like simply making the 8-Unit bet preflop. Of course, you can bet 7 units preflop and save the last unit for live in game at a price of 11.5 points. Now, if they do not score first all is not lost either as 16 of 45 games played saw comeback wins by teams that did not score first.

In the wild card round teams that scored first went on to a 29-16 SU record and 24-20-1 ATS for 55% winning bets. If the team scored first via a TD, they went on to a 25-12 record and 22-14-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets. Road teams that were tied or led at the half have gone on to a 30-11 SU record and 31-7-3 ATS (82%) including a 27-13-1 Under mark for 68%. Road teams that led by 6+ points at the half went on to a 20-6 SU record and 20-4-2 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2002. If the road dog led by 6+ points at the half, they went on to a 15-5 SU mark and 18-2 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2002.

Betting on road dogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the wild card round of the playoffs with a posted total that is higher than the dog’s average total during the regular season has gone 18-21 SU, 27-12 ATS for 69% and the Under has done well going 23-15-1 for 61%. If you like the Under, my recommendation is to wait and look to get a number closer to 57.5 points during the first half of action.

Here is one of the best betting algorithms I my database consisting of more than 5000 across all sports and has earned a 17-20 SU record, but a 31-6 ATS mark for 84% winning bets since 2018. Bet on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. If the game occurs in the playoff rounds, these dogs have gone 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS with the Under going 5-1.

Long Beach State at UC-Santa Barbara

10 EST
10-Unit Best bet on UC Santa Barbara using the money line

LBST is 4-11 ATS when playing against a team that has won 60% or more of their games on the season over the past two seasons; 0-6 ATS when facing a team that averages 17 or fewer fouls per game after the 15th game of the regular season spanning the last two seasons; 2-10 ATS when facing good rebounding teams outrebounding their foes by 4 or more boards per game over the past two seasons; 5-12 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.

UCSB is 14-4 ATS following a game in which they made 55% or fewer of their free throws. UCSB head coach Pasternack is 30-15 ATS when playing against a team that has won 60 to 80^ of their games; 19-6 ATS when facing a solid offensive team scoring 77 or more PPG.

From the predictive models, we are expecting a slower than usual pace in this game with UCSB attempting 54 to 62 shots, shoot better than 47% from the field, and score 75 or more points. UCSB is 31-3 SU and 19-6-1 ATS in home games in which they have scored 75 or more points over the past five seasons; they are 29-2 SU and 18-5-1 ATS when shooting better than 47% and scoring 75+ points in home games over the past five seasons.

Chicago Bulls vs San Antonio Spurs
8-Unit bet on the Bulls -6 points and is valid to -7.5 points

Betting on road favorites, who are facing an opponent that is allowing at least 103 PPG, and are coming off a game in which they lead by 20 or more points at the half has earned a 51-26 ASTS record for 66% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State

4:00 EST
8-Unit bet on NWST plus the 2.5 points and is valid down to pick-em.

Betting on dogs that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen the total play Under by 55 or more points over their last five games has gone 43-26-2 ATS for 62.3% winning bets since 2015.

NWST is 18-4 ATS when facing a team that averages 14 or fewer forced turnovers per game after the 15th game of the regular season.

Arkansas vs Florida
4 EST |
8-Unit bet on Arkansas +7.5 points and consider a sprinkle on the money line.

Betting on dogs of 6 or more points that are coming off a double-digit loss to a conference foe and facing a foe coming off an upset loss priced as the favorite has earned a 77-43-1 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat
8-Unit bet on the Magic +2 points and is valid to pick-em

Betting on road teams that lost to the current foe in the same season and are coming off a double-digit home loss has earned an outstanding 178-108-3 ATS for 62.2% since 2016. This betting algorithm has not had a losing season since 2013. If our team is facing a divisional foe, their record soars to 68-20-1 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 8 seasons.

Houston Rockets vs Detroit Pistons
8-Unit best bet on the Rockets -7.5 points and us valid up to 9.5 points.

Bet on road favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that saw the OVER win by 18 or more points in their previous game and with the foe seeing their over-under margin play Over by 18 or more points spanning their last 10 games has earned a 66-17 SU record and 50-32-1 ATS for 61% winning bets over the past 11 seasons. If it is a conference game, which this one is not, the record soars to 41-18-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.

Sacramento Kings vs 76ers
8-Unit bets bet on the Kings using the money line unless this game would move to make the Kings +2.5 or more-point dogs. The money line is the bet even if the Kings move to a -1.5-point favorite.

Betting on teams that are outscoring their foes by 6 or more points and priced between a 3.5-point favorite and 3.5-point underdog and with their foe having played their last three games with 220 or more points scored in each one has earned a 56-31-2 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the past 6 seasons. If the matchup is NOT a conference one, these teams soar to a 24-9 SU and 24-8-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets.

Minnesota vs Indiana
8-Unit bet on Indiana minus the 4 points and is valid to 5.5 points.

Indiana is 8-0 ATS in home games and taking on a foe that has won 80% or more of their games spanning the past three seasons; 6-0 ATS in home games and facing an elite foe that is outscoring their foes by 12 or more PPG; 15-4 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games spanning the past three seasons; 9-1 ATS in home games following a game in which 125 or fewer points were scored.

Minnesota gas covered the spread in 8 consecutive games. Teams that are priced as a road dog and facing a conference foe and have covered in 7 straight games have gone just 16-50 SU and 25-41 ATS for 62% winning bets.

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
8-Unit bet on the Bucks -2.5 points and is valid up to -3.5 points.

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5 point favorite and a 3-[point underdog that are coming off two consecutive losses priced as favorites and who lost to the current foe in their previous matchup. has earned an outstanding 55-27 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2016 and has earned a 42-17 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Nuggets vs Jazz
8-Unit bet on the Nuggets minus the 7 points and is valid up to -9.5 points.

Bet on a road favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that is outscoring their opponents by at least 3 points per game and facing a foe that won their previous game by 20 or more points has earned an outstanding 55-7 SU record and 46-16 ATS mark for 74% winning bets since 2007. If the opponent has a losing record, then record soars to an incredible 35-3 SU and 32-6 ATS record for 84% winning bets since 2007.

76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
8-Unit bet on the 76ers +1.5 points and is valid up to -1.5 points.

Betting on dogs that have lost to the spread by 20 or more points over their last three games, is on a two-game losing streak exact, shot 43% or lower spanning the last three games, and the game is played in the first half of the regular season has earned a 20-9 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If they are playing a losing record team, like the Hawks, the record has been 9-4 ATS for 69% winning bets.

No Embiid tonight and that is already baked into the line.

Thunder vs Heat
8-Unit bet on the Thunder -4.5 points and is valid to -6 points.

Bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss in which the opponent scored at least 100 points and that opponent is coming off a home win scoring at least 115 points has gone 61-19 SU and 50-27-3 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our team has an assist to turnover ratio of 2 or higher, then these teams have produced a remarkable 20-7-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
7:30 PM EST | ESPN
8-Unit bet on Washington plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog, but I do not see this line moving if at all ahead of kickoff.

With a total that is already in the mid-50’s, there is reason to believe scoring volatility will be present and that there may be several lead changes along the way. So, consider betting 70% of your amount preflop and then look to add 15% at Washington +6.5 and 15% more at Washington +7.5points during the first half of action. Another consideration is to bet 70% preflop and then look to add 30% more if Michigan scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead during the first half of action. I also like a pizza money size bet on Washington’s team total over 24.5 points.

This is just the second team from the PAC-12 to make it to the CFP championship game. On January 12, 2015, Oregon faced off against Ohio State in the first CFP Championship game and lost 42-20 as 6-point favorites. Current Philadelphia Eagles backup QB Marcus Mariota was the Heisman Trophy winner along with the Walter Camp Player of the Year, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and AP Player of the Year awards. Ohio State’s DL Joey Bosa was the only Buckeye to earn Consensus All-American that season. Oregon was 13-1 with one conference loss while Ohio State was 13-1 under Urban Meyer having just one loss losing in Week 2 on the road at Virginia Tech 35-21 as 10.5-point favorites. A little history of the only PAC-12 vs Big Ten Championship game as the rest have been dominated by the SEC Conference.

Underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS for 71% in the Championship game. The first five Championship games saw a dog of 6.5 or fewer points cover the spread. When the dog has covered the Over has gone 4-1.

Betting on underdogs using the money line that are priced between +150 and +300 invovling a matchup of team that both average 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after the 8th game of the season and with our team coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover has earned a 31-24 record averaging a +225 wager and earning a 67% ROI over the past five seasons.

Washington head coach DeBoer is 19-2 SU in all games; 5-0 SU as an underdog; 11-1 SU after scoring 35 or more points; 17-1 SU following a win; 14-1 SU after a game in which they committed no more than one turnover; 9-1 SU after two consecutive games gaining 6.25 or more YPPL. Harbaugh is just 3-8 SU in road and neutral site games against non-conference foes.

From the predictive model, we are expecting Washington to score 27 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past games in which Washington met or exceeded these measures they went on to an outstanding 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets over the previous five season and 4-1 ATS in those games if priced as the underdog. Michigan is 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past 5 seasons.

Buffalo vs Miami

Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL

8:20 ET | NBA
8-Unit bet on the Bills minus the 2.5 points and is valid up to 3.5 points.

The following betting algorithm supports a betting opportunity using the money line and has produced a 32-13 record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 years. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams facing a winning record host.

·      The road team defeated the host in their previous game.

·      The game occurs in the second half of the regular season.

·      The road teams scored 35 or more points in their previous matchup against the host.

·      The total is 48 or more points.

The Bills are 24-20 SU and 26-17-1 ATS for 61% winning bets when they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games spanning games played since 2010. If they are facing a divisional foe in this situation, they have gone 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2010.

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games facing a divisional foe and matching or exceeding these performance expectations, they have gone on to an impressive 21-2 SU record and 19-4 ATS mark good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns
8-Unit bet on the Grizzlies plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Bet on road underdogs that have won 25 to 35% of their games on the season and coming off a road win and now facing a host with a winning record. When the game in question occurs after the 15th game of the regular season, the record soars to 74-38-3 ATS for 66% winning bets. If the game is after game number 25, the record then goes to a money-making 60-32-3 ATS machine for 65% winning bets.

Maryland vs Minnesota
8-Unit Bet on Maryland +1.5 points and is good to Maryland priced as a 1.5-point favorite.

Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in home games following two games in which they committed 11 or fewer turnovers in each game. Maryland is coming off a 14-point loss to No.1 ranked Purdue on January 2 and shot just 33% from the field. IN the 2023 season, Maryland is 4-0 ATS following a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. As a dog of 4.5 or fewer points, Maryland is 8-3 ATS following a game in which they shot less than 40% form the field.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

4:25 ET | FedEx Field, Landover, MD
8-Unit bet on the Commanders +13.5 points and valid if they remain a double-digit underdog.

Betting on divisional home dogs revenging a same-season blowout loss of 27 or more points in the final four weeks of the regular season have gone 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. So, don’t think that Dallas is just going to waltz into FedEx Field and get a double-digit lead early and coast to a win. Of course, that is a possibility, but the numbers beg to differ despite the Commanders being a horrible team.

The line for this game opened before the season started with Dallas a 3-point favorite at the Circa. Line movements of 7 or more points from the opening become fade or contrarian betting opportunities that have hit 65% ATS over the past five years.  So, these opportunities always look like bad decisions and they do lose 35% of the time, but over the course of the second half of the regular season, they have provided added profits.

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
4:25 EST | FOX
8-Unit bet on the Eagles minus the 4.5 points and is valid to -6 points.

Consider betting on the Eagles using the first half line to minimize the potential that the Eagles will pull starters at some point if Dallas does get out to double-digit lead. However, we are on Washington for a reason. Even if Dallas gets a 3 or more-score lead, they may even pull starters in the fourth quarter and giving Washington a shot at the backdoor cover. Just saying.

Betting on favorites that are scoring between 23.5 and 27.5 PPG and facing a foe that is allowing 23.5 to 27 PPG and with our team coming off back-to-back games in which 50+ points were scored in each game has produced a 75-22 SU record and 62-32-3 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2010. If the game occurs in the final four weeks of the season, our team has gone 18-5 SU and 15-7-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010. If a divisional matchup our team has gone 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS for 73% winners.

Trail Blazers vs Nets
8-Unit bet on the Trailblazers plus the 8.5 points and is valid to 7.5 points. A sprinkle on the money lie is a great opportunity too.

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost their last three road games and now facing a non-conference foe has earned a 47-47 SU record and 60-32-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in these games is229.5 or fewer points, our dog has gone 43-34 SU and 55-20-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the pat 10 seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
4:30 ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+

8-Unit best bet on the Steelers minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to 4.5 points.

Be careful presuming this bet is a winner before it starts simply because the Ravens may not be starting anyone from the first units. So, with that statement, consider betting 70% of your betting amount preflop on the Steelers and then look to add the remaining 30% if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or retake the lead at some point during the first half of action.

Betting on favorites that are facing a divisional foe that they defeated earlier in the season, is coming off two consecutive OVER results and with a total that is lower than each of the past two game’s totals have gone 46-33 for 58% winning bets since 1989. If the favorite is priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points, they improve to 40-10 SU and 34-16 ATS for 68% winning bets and 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS and 9-4 Under since 2015.

Toronto Raptors vs. Sacramento Kings

Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
8-Unit Bet on the Raptors plus the five points and is valid down to and including 3.5 points.

Bet on road underdogs who have won 25 to 40% of their games on the season and coming off a road win and now facing a host with a winning record. When the game in question occurs after the 15th game of the regular season, the record has been 74-37 ATS for 67% winning bets. If the game is after game number 30, the record then goes to a money-making 51-27-3 ATS mark for 65.4% winning bets.

Bowling Green vs Akron
James A. Rhodes Arena
Akron, Ohio
8-Unit Bet on BGU plus the 9.5 points and is valid down to 7.5 points.

Akron is 6-15 ATS when facing a winning record team over the past two seasons; 0-6 ATS following two games in which they allowed 65 or fewer points over the past two seasons. Akron head coach Morehead is 2-9 ATS following two games in which his team allowed 65 or fewer points.

From the predictive model, BGU is 126-23 SU and 48-12 ATS for 80% winning bets when holding a foe to fewer than 74 points and have an assist to turnover ratio above 1.0 since 2016.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
Toyota Center, Houston
8 ET
8-Unit best bet on the Wolves -3.5 points and is valid to 5.5 points. If this line drops to 2.5 or fewer points, consider the money line as an alternative wager.

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5 point favorite and a 3.5 point underdog that lost their last two games priced as a favorite and also lost the previous meeting to the current foe has earned a solid 55-27 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 2016. If our team is priced as a favorite of 5.5 or fewer points including pick-em has led them to a solid 47-24-1 ATS for 66% winning bets since 2016.

Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
7 ET
8-Unit bet on the Hawks plus the 3.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off three consecutive road losses and now facing a non-conference foe has gone 46-47 SU and 59-32-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team has a losing record and the foe has a winning record, our dogs have gone 25-17 SU and 31-9-2 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

South Dakota State vs. Weber State
Dee Events Center, Ogden, Utah
9 ET
8-UNIT bet on SDST plus 5.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Over the past 10 seasons betting on road underdogs including pick-em that allowed less than 35% shooting in their previous game and facing a foe that has shot at least 50% from the field in each of their three previous games has earned a 55-31 ATS record for 64% winning bets. This is a system created to exploit significant regression situations, which in this game is focused on seeing Weber State shoot below their recent three game average.

Brooklyn Nets vs Houston Rockets
Toyota Center, Houston, TX | 8 ET
8-Unit Bet on the Nets plus 6.5 points and is valid down to 4.5 points.

The Nets are struggling recently and sit with a 15-19 record and are 6-11 in road games, but this is an excellent situation for them to cover the spread and potential win the game outright. The Nets have lost four straight games failing to cover the spread in all four. They have lost nine of their last 11 games and have failed to cover in 10 of those games. Simply, the market now has put the Nets in an oversold situation and they will be priced on the cheap side for many games coming up.

They are coming off a 112-85 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans as 5.5-point underdogs and shot a horrid 36% from the field. The Rockets are coming off 136-113 win over Detroit and covered easily as 9.5-point favorites and shot 56% from the field.

Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a host that has scored 120 or more points in each of their previous two games has earned a 121-79-2 ATS for 61% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our road dog is playing on back to back nights, they soar to a 28-10 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Tennessee Chattanooga vs. Samford
8-Unit Bet on Samford minus the 8.5 points and is valid up to 9.5 points.

Betting on home favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points playing with four or more days of rest that are outscoring their opponents by double-digits and are coming off a game in which they led by 20 or more points at the half have earned a 63-16 SU record and 50-27-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs after the 10th game of the season these teams improve to 30-5 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
7:00 ET

8-Unit best bet on the Bucks minus the 3.5 points.

Consider betting 70% preflop and then look to add 20% on the Bucks at pick-em and the remaining 10% at +2.5 points during the first half of action. The total is priced at 258.5 points which is within two points of the all-time high of 260.5 points recorded earlier this season when the Wizards hosted the Pacers in a 137-123 Wizards win on December 15. There have been four previous games with a total of 255 or more points this season and the Pacers have been involved and were the road team in every game.

Betting on road favorites that lost to the current opponent in the same season and is also coming off a home loss and playing with one day of rest have gone 55-28 ATS for 66% winning bets since 2015.

From the predictive models we learn that the Bucks are 38-2 SU and 36-4 ATS for 90% winning bets when they have scored 130 or more points and had the better and more efficient assists to turnover ratio in games played over the past five seasons.

Western Carolina vs. The Citadel
8-Unit bet on Western Carolina minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to and including 5.5 points.

Betting on road teams in a conference matchup that won each fo their two previous games by 20 or more points and are facing a host that scored 45 or more points in the first half of their previous game has earned an outstanding 21-10 SU and 16-7-1 ATS mar good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

10-Unit MAX Bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 3.5 points and is valid to -6 points.

The market is telling you that Texas is the better team since they are favored but ranked No.3 to Washington’s No. 2. That does not tell us the complete story, though, so let’s dig deep here and learn why Texas is my pick and why I do believe Texas will win the National Championship. So, if you have watched the shows I appear on, the one consistent theme since Week 1 was that I saw Texas and Penn State colliding in the National Championship and had bet each one individually. So, now we have Texas left on the betting slips and even at current pricing.

Texas is 14-3 ATS on a neutral field with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Undefeated teams playing in a bowl game or the CFP and dressed as a dog have gone 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU. Washington has played tough games winning their last three games by three or fewer points. Texas has won their last three games by 10, 50, and 28 points respectively. Texas QB Ewers threw for 464 yards in the Big-12 Championship game that they won 49-21 over Oklahoma State. They have covered the spread in five of their last six and three straight and the market is simply not catching up to the true market value of Texas.

Three models that I have developed over decades of research prices Texas as a 9.5-point favorite over Washington. However, this does not imply that simply betting Texas is an easy winner. Instead it informs us that there is plenty of value betting Texas which increases are odds to win this 10-Unit bet, but certainly never a guarantee.

From the predictive model, Texas is expected to score 30 or more points and execute more rushing plays than passing plays. In this situation they are 87-9 SU and 71-24-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. Washington is 5-50 SU and 8-46-1 ATS for 15% when they allowed these measures since 2015.

Betting on elite rushing teams gaining 4.8 or more YPRA from Week 7 on out, is coming off a game limited that opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and now facing a foe that is averaging 4.35 to 4.75 YPRA has earned a 78-41 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Arizona vs Philadelphia
Lincoln Financial Field
1 ET
8-Unit Titan Bet on the Eagles minus 13 points.

My recommendation is to bet 80% of your normal 8-unit bet amount preflop and the look to add the remaining 20% betting amount with the Eagles priced as 9.5-point favorites  or at whatever price is available if the Cardinals score the first touchdown of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Granted, this scenario is not likely to happen, but it never hurts to have the plan in place if it does.

I do see AJ Brown having a monster game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to cover anyone no matter if it is zone or man coverage situations. The Eagles will be in much better shape and nearly at full strength when the playoffs begin as they continue to get more starters returning from the IR.  So, with pizza money, I am recommending a bet on AJ Brown over 83.5 receiving yards.

Eagles are 28-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. They are also 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS following three straight ATS losses over the past five seasons.

From the predictive model, the Eagles are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past five seasons.

Miami vs Baltimore

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
1:00 ET | CBS
10-Unit bet on the Dolphins +3.5 points.

Consider betting 80% of your bet amount on the Dolphins preflop and then look to at 20% more at a price making the Dolphins a 7.5-point underdog or if the Ravens score the first touchdown of the game.

Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

Our dog has allowed

Raiders vs Colts

1 ET
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
8-Unit best bet on the Raiders plus the points currently priced as 4-point underdogs.

I would bet 7-units preflop on this one and look to add that final unit using the money line if the Colts score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games and facing a host coming off a game in which they did not force a turnover has gone 31-36 SU and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season and is a non-divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 17-15 SU and 25-7 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

49ers vs Washington

1:00 ET | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville

8-Unit bet on the Commanders plus the 14 points

Betting on teams that have failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen their last three games play OVER by 30 or more points have gone 40-45 SU, but 60-24-1 SATS for 71% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons.

In the last four weeks of the regular season double-digit home underdogs are 15-62 SU, but a highly profitable 48-27-2 ATS for 64% winning bets and if the total in these games is 45 or more points, our home dogs with fleas has gone 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

Mississippi vs Penn State
Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Noon, Saturday December 30
10-Unit Bet on Penn State minus 5.5 points and is valid to 7 points.

Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and the look to add 25% more with PSU priced at pick-em or better during the first half of action. Another option is to add 25% if Mississippi scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead with a TD score during the first half of action.

Some notes of interest about the Peach Bowl. The 2023 Peach Bowl game is a college football bowl game that will feature No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday, Dec. 30 at noon ET. The game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be televised by ESPN.

This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs, and only the sixth Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Bowl's history. Both teams finished the regular season with 10-2 records and are looking to end the year ranked in the Top-10 Final poll.

Penn State boasts the nation's top-ranked defense based on my comprehensive power rankings. They are expected to slow down the high-octane Mississippi Rebel offense for the entire game. That does noy imply that Mississippi will be held scoreless, but rather that the Mississippi offense will not keep pace with the PSU offense led by sophomore 5-star

The Peach Bowl game will be a clash of styles, as Penn State's stingy defense will try to slow down Ole Miss's high-powered offense. Both teams have a chance to make history, as Penn State can become the first program to win every bowl game that comprises the New Year's Six, and Ole Miss can win its first New Year's Six bowl game under head coach Lane Kiffin.

PSU is 9-1 ATS as a favorite this season; 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games against conference foes over the past two seasons; 9-1 ATS in December games; James Franklin is 12-2 ATS when having won 8 or more of their previous 10 games; 16-1 Ats following back-to-back double-digit wins over conference foes; 9-1 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game.

Notre Dame vs Oregon State
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
2 ET

8-Unit Bet on the Oregon State Beavers plus the 6.5 points

Consider betting 75% preflop and then look to add 25% more with OSU priced at 10.5 points during the first half of action.

Betting on neutral field underdogs that are facing a foe that has won 60 to 85% of their games and has won three of their last four games has earned a 32-10 record good for 77% winning bets since 2014.  

The predictive models I have developed reveal that OSU is 23-6 SU and 25-4 ATS for 86%) when scoring 28 or more -points and gaining at least 150 rushing yards since 2019.

Clemson vs Kentucky

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl | Noon ET, Friday
8-Unit Bet on Kentucky plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

This bowl game features a team from the SEC going up against a team from the ACC ro another conference if no ACC teams are available. Here are some more interesting facts about the Gator Bowl.

Some facts about the Gator Bowl Football Game are:

The first Gator Bowl was played on January 1, 1946, between Wake Forest and South Carolina, with Wake Forest winning 26-14.

The most recent Gator Bowl was played on December 30, 2022, between Notre Dame and South Carolina, with Notre Dame winning 30-33.

The Gator Bowl has hosted four national championship teams: Georgia Tech in 1952, Florida in 1996, Tennessee in 1998, and Florida State in 2013.

The Gator Bowl has featured some of the most memorable moments in college football history, such as the “Fog Bowl” in 1959, the “Lindsey Scott Miracle Run” in 1980, the “Gator Flop” in 1971, and the “Woody Hayes Punch” in 1978.

The Gator Bowl has also showcased some of the most prominent players and coaches in college football history, such as Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, Joe Namath, and Johnny Unitas.

Clemson (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season by its own standards, losing four games for the first time since 2014. The Tigers struggled offensively, ranking 56th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 points per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik had a solid debut season, throwing for 2,580 yards and 19 touchdowns, but also had eight interceptions. The Tigers relied on their running game, led by Phil Mafah and Will Shipley, who combined for 1,692 yards and 14 touchdowns. Clemson’s defense was solid, allowing only 19.9 points per game and ranking fifth in the nation in passing defense. However, the Tigers will be without some key players on defense, such as linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Ruke Orhorhoro, who opted out of the bowl game. Most importantly, they are very thin at the cornerback position and any injury, even if minor that removes the starting corners out fo the game for a few plays, will present some high percentage chunk plays for Kentucky.

Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) had a roller-coaster season, winning its first four games before losing five of its next seven. The Wildcats had a balanced offense, averaging 28.6 points per game and ranking 95th in passing and 96th in rushing. Quarterback Devin Leary, a transfer from NC State, had a breakout season, throwing for 2,440 yards and 23 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. He had a trio of reliable receivers in Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson, who each had over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Wildcats also had a star running back in Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,066 yards and 13 touchdowns. Davis declared for the NFL Draft, but will play in the bowl game.

Kentucky’s defense was average, allowing 26.8 points per game and ranking 65th in total defense. The Wildcats thrived on forcing turnovers, as they had 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.

Head coach Stoops is 23-13 ATS when facing a non-conference game. Clemson is 3-12 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons; 1-8 ATS after allowing seven or fewer points in the first of each of their ;ast two games in games played over the past three seasons.  

Memphis vs Denver
8-Unit bet on Memphis plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 4.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs that have won between 25 and 40% of their games on the season and facing a winning record foe and has played 25 or more games and with a total of not more than 230 points has gone 57-23-2 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2016.

NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns

Thursday NFL on Prime
8-Unit Bet on the Jets plus the 7 points and is valid down to 5.5 points.

8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points.

Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002.  So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points.

I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets.  Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets.

New York Knicks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center
8:00 ET
8-Unit bet on the Ny Knicks +3.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5-point dog to a 3.5-point favorite that are outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG and facing a foe that has seen their last three games produce 220 or more points in each one has earned a 59-26 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2018. If our team is on the road they improve to 19-7 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Bet on road teams priced between 3.5 dog and favorite that has allowed 120 points in each of their last two games and facing a foe that is coming off a game in which 235 or more points were scored in total has earned a 31-16 SU record and 32-13-2 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.

USC vs Louisville

8 ET | Fox | Holiday Bowl
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
8-Unit bet on the Trojans plus the 7 0oints and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Betting on teams priced as 4.5 or greater underdogs in a bowl game and covered the spread in three or fewer games on the season have produced a 14-9-2 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets dating back to the 1989 season.

The market has overreacted to how poorly USC played down the stretch ranking 11th best in total offense but a horrid 120th in total defense nationally and the fact that their 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has opted out of this bowl game. It is also a fact that PAC-12 Bowl teams have gone a shocking 0-16 ATS when coming off a SU and ATS loss in their season finale. However, that trend is mature and statistically poised to move in the other direct over the coming bowl seasons. Problem is there I no PAC-12 conference starting next season. Trends like this one reflect a market that has continuously relied on it and others and the result is an undervalued underdog, especially in this matchup.

USC has a new defensive coordinator who will prepare this Trojan team better than in any of the previous 8 games this season and further they have the motivation to play hard and put the those terrible defensive games in the rearview mirror heading into Spring Football. Lincoln Kennedy is an elite coach and is 6-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points in bowl games. If this game was priced before the season started the trojans would have been 9.5-point favorites.

The predictive models inform us that USC is 69-4 SU and 55-16-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have been priced as a dog, scored 27 or more points, and had the same or fewer turnovers.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL
7 PM EST
8-Unit bet on the Magic -2.5 points and is valid up to -4.5 points.

The reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid will be out of action again tonight as he continues to recover from a strained ankle he suffered Friday night in the first quarter of a 121-111 win over the Toronto Raptors. He did continue to play on it logging regular game minutes. An ankle injury gets evaluated the next day, but seeing him play that many minutes makes for the possibility he will be back on the court by the weekend.

The 76ers are 0-4 straight-up (SU) and 1-3 ATS this season with Embiid out of the lineup.

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5-point dog to a 3.5-point favorite that are outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG and facing a foe that has seen their last three games produce 220 or more points in each one has earned a 59-26 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2018. If it is a non-divisional matchup, these teams have produced a 49-20 ATS mark for 71% winning bets since 2018. If the total is between 220 and 234.5 points, these home teams have gone 26-12 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 2018.

Memphis vs New Orleans
8-Unit Bet on the Memphis Grizzlies plus the 5 points and is valid to 4 points.

Bet on road underdogs that have won 25 to 35% of their games on the season and coming off a road win and now facing a host with a winning record. When the game in question occurs after the 15th game of the regular season, these road dogs have produced a 43-24-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. If our dog is priced between pick and 7.5 points the have earned a 12-4 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Boston Celtics vs. LA Lakers
8-Unit Best Bet on the Celtics -3 points and is valid up to -4.5 points.

Betting on road favorites coming off a win by 20 or more points and is facing a host that has scored and allowed 107 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a highly profitable 36-7 SU (84%) and 30-13 ATS (70% winning bets overt the past 10 seasons.

We were on the Celtics as an 8-Unit blowout win over the Clippers defeating them 145-108 and covering the spread by 32.5 points. They are playing great team basketball and I see them rolling in this game as well.

Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears
4:25 PM EST, Christmas Eve
8-Unit Best Bet on the Cardinals plus the points.

Did you know that dogs of 3.5 to 4.5 points in the final three weeks of the regular season are 40-41 SU and 58-23 ATS for 71.6% winning bets since 1990.  

Here is a first half line with a road team facing a host that is coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards and  is a solid ground attack team averaging 130 or more RYPG has earned a 35-11-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. So, if you like the Cardinals as I obviously do, consider betting them with a pizza money bet if the Bears score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.

Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins

4:25 ET, Week 16 Christmas Eve

10-Unit bet on the Dolphins minus the 2 points.

Consider betting 80% of your bets size preflop and then look for Dallas to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action and then add the remaining 20% on the Dolphins.

Betting home teams coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe and the current game is a non-conference matchup has earned a 52-15 SU record and 47-18-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. If the game occurs from game number 10 on, these home teams have gone 20-5 SU and 18-6-1 ATS for 75% winning bets.

From the predictive models we are expecting the Dolphins to score 28 or more points and gain at least 8 yards per pass. In games over the past five seasons the Dolphins are 59-4 SU and 55-6-2 ASTS for 90% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. If the Dolphins have been at home they have gone 31-0 SU and 26-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets.

The Cowboys have yet to defeat a winning record team on the road and have defeated just one team (Eagles) all season. They played horribly poor last week in Buffalo and were dominated on both sides of the ball. Moreover, they are averaging 40 PPG in home games and just 21 PPG on the road and is by far the widest differential of any team in the NFL this season.

The Cowboys scoring differential between home and away is the most since the 2014 Green Bay Packers posted a 17.1 PPG differential, the Ravens in 2004 and the 49ers in 1991 posted 16.4 PPG differentials. In 2014 the Packers won the NFC North Division and went on to defeat the  Cowboys 26-21 in the Divisional Round and then lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17 in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl on the last play of the game to the New England Patriots. The 1991 49ers and the 2004 Ravens failed to make the playoffs.

[DB] Elijah Campbell (Knee) - Questionable [12/21/2023] => Campbell was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[DE] Emmanuel Ogbah (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Ogbah was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[OL] Austin Jackson (Oblique) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Jackson was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[CB] Cam Smith (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Smith was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[CB] Xavien Howard (Hip) - Questionable [12/13/2023] => Howard was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[WR] Tyreek Hill (Ankle) - Questionable [12/11/2023] => Hill was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

From all my resources Hill is a game-time decision but has a 90% probability of playing in this critical game. Even if he does not start, the 10-Unit Bet is valid.

Northwestern vs. Utah
68 Ventures Bowl, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
7:30 PM EST, Saturday December 23, 2023
8-Unit bet on Northwestern plus the 6 points and is valid down to 4 points.

Teams that became bowl eligible coming off a season in which they won three of fewer games and playing a foe that won four or more games in their previous season has earned an outstanding 34-19 SU record and 38-12-3 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is a member of the Power 5 conferences (PAC-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big-12) they have gone a highly profitable 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets. Northwestern is a member of the Big Ten and certainly outperformed everyone’s expectations this season given they were priced with a 2.5 wins total before the season started.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh

8-Unit Bet on the Steelers plus the points currently priced as 2.5-point home underdogs and is valid if they remain the underdog.

This will end up being a contrarian bet as the Steelers have lost four of their last five games and three straight. They have scored just 67 points over their past five games ranking fifth least in the NFL. The Bengals rank 8th most scoring 125 points over their last five games but are prone to regression in this divisional matchup. Tomlin has made some questionable head scratching calls, but no one can take away his ability to prepare his team on the defensive end in a must win game.

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have lost three consecutive games to the spread and facing a foe that has covered their last two games ATS has produced a 33-16 SU record for 67.3% winners and 32-14-3 ATS for 70% winning bets, including a 31-18 UNDER mark for 63% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If the foe has covered the spread in three consecutive games, then our home team has gone 17-10 SU for 63% and 18-9 ATS for 67% winning bets including a 16-10-1 Under mark for 62% winning best over the past 10 seasons. If a divisional matchup our home team has gone 16-6 SU and 15-4-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Here is a money line system that has produced an 86-37 record for 68% since 1990. The requirements are to be on home team that is facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous same season meeting and with that foe coming off a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game occurring in the last three weeks of the regular season. If our home team has a 0.500 or better record, they soar to greater heights posting a 68-25 record for 73% winning bets since 1990 and 10-4 over the past three seasons (71.4%).

Also, if our home team has struggled offensively scoring 70 or fewer points over their past five games, has a 0.500 record or better and facing a divisional foe from Week 14 on out, have gone 17-13 SU, 19-7-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 1990.

Boston Celtics vs LA Clippers
8-Unit Best Bet on the Celtics minus the 2.5 points and is valid up to -4 points.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off a win by 20 or more points that are facing a host that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a 104-30 SU record for 78% wis and 84-47-3 ATS for 64% winning bets since 2015. If the foe scored and allowed 105 or more points in each of their last three games, our road favorite has gone 54-12 SU and 44-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2015.

NEW MEXICO ST (5 - 8) at TULSA (7 - 3)

Friday, 12/22/2023 8:00 PM

8-UNIT Best Bet on Tulsa minus the seven points and is valid up to 8.5 points.

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off B2B home wins and that are a member of a major D-1 conference and facing a team from a mid-major conference has gone 75-38-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1996.  

Brooklyn vs Denver
8-Unit bet on the Nets plus the points and is valid if they remain the dog.

Nets are 19-8 ATS when revenging a road loss in games played over the past two seasons. From the predictive model, the Nets are 62-13 SU and 52-22 ATS (70%) at home when making at least 37% of their 3-point shots and scoring at least 110 points in games played over the past five seasons.

Clippers vs Thunder
8-Unit Bet on the Thunder -4.5 points and is valid up to and including 5.5 points.

Betting on winning record home teams that are facing a winning record foe that has covered their last three games priced as favorites has earned an 82-53 ATS record for 61% winning bets since 2015. If that foe is playing on back-to-back nights, our home teams has gone 18-6 ATS for 75% and 18-6 SU.

UNC-Ashville vs. Appalachian State
7:00 ET, Thursday
8-Unit Bet on UNC-Ashville (ASH) plus the 10.5 points and is valid down to 8.5 points.

Betting on underdogs between 10 and 19.5 points that is facing a team that has won 80% or more of their games on the season and has covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games has earned a highly profitable 86-43 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons.

LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks
8-Unit best bet on the Mavericks if they remain the underdog and includes pick-em. Consider using the money line if they are priced at +1.5 or fewer.

Betting on home underdogs of not more than four points and including pick-em that are outscoring their foes by 6 or more PPG and taking on an opponent that has seen their last three games each have more than 220 points scored has earned a 28-16 SU record and 30-13-1 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets since 2018. If the game has a total between 220 and 239.5 points, our home dogs have gone an impressive 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Liberty vs. Utah Valley State
8-Unit Best Bet on UVS plus the 5.5 points and is valid if the remain the underdog.

Betting on any team that is facing a foe that made 13 or more 3-point shots in their previous game and is a matchup where both teams make 65 to 69.9% of their free throws has earned an 84-40-ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game has a total between 125 and 140 points, our teams have gone 50-47 SU and 64-33 ATS for 66% winning bets. If our team is playing at home, they soar to a highly profitable 26-13 SU and 27-12 ATS record for 7-% winning bets.

Minnesota vs Philadelphia
8-Unit bet on the 76ers minus the points and is valid up to 5.5 points.

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5 favorite and underdog that are outscoring their foes by at least 6 PPG and is facing an opponent that has seen each of their last three games score a combined 220 or more points has gone 56-28 SU and 56-26 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 6 seasons of action. If the game is a non-divisional matchup then our team soar to 44-18 SU and 45-16-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. If the total is between 220 and 229.5 points, our team has gone 18-6 SUATS for 75% winning bets.

UCONN v Seton Hall
8-Unit Bet on Seton Hall plus the points currently priced as 8.5-point underdogs and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Here are a few situational angles supporting the bet on Seton Hall in this Big East matchup tonight. SH head coach Holloway is 20-7-1 ATS when facing teams that are out rebounding their opponents by 4 or more boards per game; 44-26-2 ATS when priced as the underdog for his career.

Betting on underdogs using the money line that are facing a foe that shot 50% or higher in each of their last three games and is shooting 47.5% or between for the season and is now facing a defense allowing between 40 and 42% shooting has gone 66-62 SU averaging a +165 money line wager for a 31% ROI.

Bet on the Hall for an 8-Unit betting amount getting the points and sprinkle another unit on the money line.

UTSA vs Marshall
Frisco Bowl
9 ET December 19
8-Unit bet on Marshall plus 7.5 points and is valid bet if they remain the dog

UTSA is coming off a 29-16 loss as a 3.5-point underdog to Tulane in their previous game. Marshall is coming off a 35-21 win as 1-point underdog over Arkansas State in their season finale and that momentum will carry over to this bowl game. Marshall has seen 11 players enter the transfer portal with their sophomore quarterback Cam Fancher entering the portal December 11. However, Marshall is quite deep in the quarterback position.

Marshall faces a quarterback conundrum with a major transfer triggering a rise in the betting lines to a double-digit spread. However, there is not going to be a significant drop-off if this opens the door for Cole Pennington, son of former NFL QB Chad Pennington, to step in under center. In fact, I see no change to a potential better offense with Pennington calling the signals.  He completed 49-of-79 passes for 437 yards including 6 TD and 3 interceptions in three games, including starts against Georgia Southern and South Alabama. So, his potential is quite high, and he already has proven he can run an efficient offense.

From the predictive model we are looking for Marshall to score 24 or more points and gain at least 5 yards per play has seen them produce a 56-12 record and a 42-25-1 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. If they were an underdog in these games, they have gone 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS.

Cornell vs Siena
8-Unit on Cornell minus the 13 points

Cornell is 17-5 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 57.5 or fewer PPG. Siena is 1-8 ATS following a blowout loss of 20 or more points; 4-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last seven games.

From the predictive model we learn that Siena is 0-8 ATS when allowing 80 or more points in games played over the past three seasons.

Eastern Washington vs Cal Poly SLO
8-Unit bets bet on Cal Poly priced as a 6.5-point home dog and is valid down to 5 points.

Betting on team that is allowing between 45 and 47.5% shooting and is facing a foe that is shooting 47.5% or better form the field and is coming off a game in which they shot 60% or better from the field has earned a solid money-making 40-18 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Timberwolves vs Heat
10-Unit Bet on the Heat currently priced as 1.5-point home underdogs and is valid down to -1.5-point favorite.

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5-point favorite to 3.5-point underdog that is facing a foe, who is outscoring their foes by 6 or more PPG and who has played three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored in each game has produced a 59-23 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 6 seasons. If the total in these games has been 220 or fewer points, our teams have gone a highly profitable 14-2 ATS for 88% winning bets over the past six seasons.

Dallas vs Buffalo

8-Unit Bet on the Bills minus the 2-points.

Currently, 58% of the tickets but just 35% of the handle is on the Cowboys. The recency bias is a big factor in this game as the Cowboys are two solid back-to-back wins while the Bills held off a furious rally and strange officiating to get the ‘must win’ they needed. It remains a desperate now or never game for the Bills given that two 7-6 teams won Saturday in the Bengals and the Colts. They come in to the week ranked 11tnh in the playoff standings and after yesterday’s results are in the 9th position. With a win, they may remain in the 9th position, but with a loss, they would drop two positions to 11th. There is a myriad of playoff scenarios today, but if there are a few upsets, and the Bills win, they could be one of six AFC teams with 8-6 records with just three weeks remaining.

The Cowboys are a different team on the road going 3-3 SU and ATS, but are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in home games. The Cowboys are the most prolific offense averaging 40 PPG at home, but are 9th in the NFL scoring an average of 23 PPG on the road. The Cowboys’ scoring differential between home and away games is 16.2 PPG and is the widest in the NFL by 5 PPG to the second-widest differential of the Titans. Moreover, the Cowboys average 3 dropped passes per game on the road, which is the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys defense in road games ranks fifth worst seeing only 1.17 opponents drops.

From Week 14 on out teams that have a winning record but three or more less wins than their foe have gone 34-17 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If it is a non-conference matchup, their record soars to 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2004.

The predictive model projects that the Bills will score 26 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Cowboys. In past home games since 2019 in which the Bills have scored 26 or more points and have had the same or fewer turnovers has led to an excellent 25-1 SU and 18-8 ATS record for 69% winning bets.

Commanders vs Rams
8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the 6.5 points and is good down to 5.5 points. 5-Unit Bet on the Under currently at 50.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs that are facing a losing record team that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games has earned a 50-57 SU record and 66037-4 ATS for 64% winning bets dating back to 1990 and is 14-6 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons.

As for the Under bet the Commanders are the worst defensive team in the league, but they do matchup well against this Rams offense. They rank 32nd in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, and points allowed per play. The Rams offense rank 30th with a 59% completion percentage and matchup against the Commanders, who rank 13th allowing 64% completions.

Betting the Under with a favorite of 6.5 to 9.5 points from Week 5 on out and is facing an opponent that has seen the total play over by 30 or more points spanning their last five games has earned a highly profitable 23-87 record good for 74% winning bets since 2017.

Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns

8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns mins the 3-points and is good to 4.5 points.

 Betting on all teams priced between the 3’s and now facing a foe that has allowed 14 or fewer points in each of their past two games has earned a solid 63-29-5 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the foe (Bears) had five or fewer dropped passes in their previous game, our team has then gone on to a 36-13-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the pat 10 seasons.

Jacksonville State vs Wisconsin
8-Unit Best Bet on JS plus the 19 points and is valid to 17.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs between 10 and 20 points that has a losing record on the season and facing a host that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and that saw their previous game play Over the total by 24 or more points has earned a money-making 235-152 record good for 61% winning bets.

Wisconsin is 0-7 ATS when facing a team with a losing record in games played over the past seven seasons. JS is 9-2 ATS when playing a below average defense allowing 45% or higher shooting spanning the past two seasons.