The College Football Championship 2021 
8 PM EST, January 10, 2022 

5% Best Bet on Georgia minus the points over Alabama 
3% Best Bet OVER the total 
1% Bet OVER Georgia Sacks of the Alabama quarterback 
0.5% Georgia –10.5 and OVER 50.5 points +725 at BetMGM 

The Georgia defense ranks among the all-time best units in over two decades. Yes, they allowed 41 points in the SEC Championship loss to Alabama, but they still managed to post a 26.9 yards per point allowed ratio for the season. Only seven teams in the past 20 seasons have ever finished a season at 25 or higher and prior to the Tide loss sat at 32 yards per point. By comparison, there were three other teams at 20 or higher and they were Clemson (20.6), Texas A&M (20.5), and Penn State (20.5). The difference between Georgia’s 26.7 YPPT ratio and the next three-best teams is monumental and cannot be underestimated.  

What is underestimated is the fact that Georgia, despite their plodding, sometimes boring, offensive schemes evolved into one of the most efficient units in the nation. They rank 5th in the nation of 130 teams with a 11.4 yards per point offensive ratio. The differential between Georgia’s offensive and defensive yards per point ratio is the widest by any team since at least 1980 and one of the dominant reasons I see Georgia winning this game and potentially by double digits. 

Bet OVER Georgia SACKS of the Alabama quarterback 

Here is a great betting system sporting a 48-21-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons, 27-10-3 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past three seasons and is 11-2 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past season. Bet on any team from Week 8 on out including bowl games and the CFP that is averaging 200 to 249.9 rushing yards per game, allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and facing an opponent that averages 150 to 200 rushing yards per game on the season.  

OVER is well supporting by the fact that Alabama is 11-1 OVER following a game in which they allowed three or fewer points spanning the last three seasons and 9-1 OVER following a game in which they allowed nine or fewer points.  

From my predictive models Georgia is 8-4 ATS this season, 15-8 ATS the past three seasons and 137-63 ATS since 2000 when they scored 28 or more points. The OVER is 114-50 since 2000 in games that Georgia scored 28 or more points. Alabama is 1-3 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-27 ATS the past 20 seasons when they have allowed 9 or more yards per pass attempt and the OVER in these games has gone 4-0 this season and 7-0 the past three seasons.  

Chicago Bulls vs Dallas Mavericks 
4% bet on the Bulls minus the points 

Bet on road favorites that are taking on a host that led at the half of their last game by 20 or more points. This simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 98-46-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last 25 NBA seasons and is 12-6 ATS for 767% winners over the last five seasons. 

Dallas has been a money-losing 9-22 ATS in home games after winning their previous game on the road spanning the past three seasons. They are also a weak 4-15 ATS in home games and have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games in games played over the last three seasons.  

New England vs Miami 
4% best bet on the Patriots minus the points 

Here is a sensational betting algorithm that has systematically earned a 49-19 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that allows 95 to 125 rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent that averages only 75 to 99 RYPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games rushing the ball for less than 100 yards in each game. This angle has earned an 18-6-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons.  

Under Belichick the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in road games and revenging a same loss of three or fewer points.  

New Orleans vs Atlanta 

4% bet on the Falcons plus the points 

Here is terrific betting algorithm that has produced consistent winning bets on a home team using the money line that is coming off two or more UNDERS and now facing an opponent that is also coming two or more unders has produced a 26-12 record for 68.4% winning bets over the past five seasons and is 48-23 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If home team is an underdog of not more than 6.5 points, they start really barking to the tune of an 11-5 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

The Saints committed no turnovers while forcing two turnovers in their 18-10 win over Carolina last week. They are 0-4 SU following a game in which they had a +2 or better turnover margin this season.  

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville 
4% bet on the Jaguars plus the points 

4% bet on the UNDER  

Betting on these ugly dogs have been solid money-making opportunities over the last 30 seasons. This ugly dog betting angle has produced an 11-4 ATS record over the last three seasons, 11-4 ATS over the past five seasons, and 24-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs that are getting outscored by 10 or more points per game and allowed 40 or more points in their previous game.  

Supporting the UNDER wager is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 63-26 record for 72% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER with a team that is coming off a road blowout loss of at least 21 or more points and has a losing record for the season and the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season.  

Spurs vs 76ers 
5% (5-UNIT) best bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.  

The 76ers are back to full strength and appear to have the COVID-19 problems that inflicted the team a month ago in their rearview mirrors. They have won five consecutive games and will looking to make it six straight tonight against the Spurs at the Wells Fargo Arena. 

Embiid, who recently was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Month, has at least 30 points in all five wins. The Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, but this style works against them in a big way having to defend Embiid in the paint or out beyond the arc. Embiid has a complete all-around game going for him and his teammates and is simply unstoppable. 

The Spurs, Dejounte Murray came off the COVID-19 list and produced 22 points in the Spurs' 99-97 win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Murray had been out for 10 days, including five games. The Spurs lost four consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in three of the four losses, while Murray was out. With Murray back in action, the market is giving us the opportunity to ’buy’ the 76ers at a cheap price and I see them winning this game by double-digits. 

From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 110 points and have 14 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the 76ers met or exceeded these measures, they went on to earn a 72-26 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons and when installed as a 4.5 to 9.5 point home favorite has produced a 37-1 SU record and 30-8 ATS record for 79% winning bets. Take the 76ers.  

LSU vs Kansas State 
4% (4-UNIT) best bet on Kansas State minus the points 

I do not see how in the world the Tigers will be able to be competitive after all of the players that have entered the transfer portal.  

The Tigers (6-6) have an interim head coach, offensive line coach Brad Davis, and they're still not sure who will play quarterback against the Wildcats (7-5) in the final bowl game of this season. After Tuesday, only the CFP National Championship Game remains. Starting quarterback Max Johnson has transferred to Texas A&M, and LSU has yet to reveal the NCAA's ruling on the team's appeal for freshman Garrett Nussmeier to not lose his redshirt season if he plays in the bowl game. LSU also will be without two of its top defensive players, who opted out to focus on the NFL draft in linebacker Damone Clark and defensive lineman Neil Farrell Jr. 

From my predictive models that account for all the missing players on the LSU roster, there is a high probability that K-State will score at least 28 points in this game. In past games in which K-State scored at least 28 points they are 5-1 ATS this season, 15-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 142-60 ATS over the past 25 seasons.  

Las Vegas vs Indianapolis 

4% (4-UNIT) best Bet on the Colts minus the points. 

The Colts started out this season losing four of the first five games and looked as dysfunctional as that AFC team located in NYC. However, they more than got their acts together on both sides of the ball and are not in thick of the muddled AFC playoff chase. For the first time since 1991, the Raiders won back-to-back games scoring 17 or fewer points in each win. This is not good news for the Raider Nation this week. Teams of two consecutive wins scoring no more than 17 points in each win are just 39-50-2 ATS for 44% wins since 1989. If that team is a dog of 3.5 or more points, they fall flat with a 8-14 ATS record for 36% wins. 

Betting against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog over a divisional foe and has a winning record for the season has earned a 74-36-6 record for 67.3% winning bets since 1989, and 8-1-1 ATS for 89% winners over the last 3 seasons. 
If the current matchup features two winning record teams the record has been 4-1 ATS for 80% wins over the last 3 seasons, and 37-11-5 ATS for 77% winning bets since 1989. 

Miami vs Tennessee 
4-UNIT Bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points 
0.5% (0.5 Units) Dolphis using the money line 

The Dolphins became the first team in NFL history to have a 7-game losing streak and a 7-game winning streak in the same season after they defeated the Saints 20-3 Monday. They are on a 7-game win streak and have covered the spread in six of the games. Tennessee earned a massive win over the 49ers to keep their playoff hopes alive knowing the surging Colts are right on their heels.  
 

Tannehill has struggled under pressure this season, ranking 23rd in Total QBR (10.9), 31st in touchdown-to-interception ratio and last in yards per drop backs at 1.2 yards per play. The Dolphins' defense leads the NFL with a 37% pressure rate. The #Finsup will bring pressure more than 50% of the offensive plays the Titans run and without Henry’s pounding ground attack the Titans will struggle to move the chains. 

The Titans trailed at the half in their 20-17 comeback win over the 49ers Sunday. Teams that trailed at the half by 8 or more points and came back to win the game and are now playing at home are a money-burning 17-42-2 ATS for 29% wins over the last 10 seasons. Miami makes it 8 wins in a row.  

Philadelphia vs Washington 

4% (4-UNIT) best bet on the Washington Football Team 
0.5% (0.5 Units) Washington using the money line 

This is just a horrid situational matchup for the playoff-hopeful Eagles and their fans. What appears to be an ‘easy’ win somehow has the potential to be a disaster for the City of Brotherly Love faithful. Recency bias could not be at higher extremes with WFT getting destroyed and humiliated by the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys and the Eagles taking care of business against the hapless NY Giants.  

Underdogs, like the Washington Iron Condors (They need a real mascot) that have been beaten by the spread by 27 or more points spanning their last three games and are playing in Week 15 on out have gone 58-110 34% SU, 96-68-4 ATS for 59%, UNDER 90-77 for 54% winners since 2000.  
Now if our barking dog is chained up at home, they are 29-39 SU, 45-22-1 ATS for 67.2%, Under 39-29 for 57% winners since 2000. 
If our ferocious furry friend is coming off a double-digit ATS loss, they end up 18-26 SU, 30-13-1 ATS for 70% winners and 27-17 UNDER for 62% since 2000O. Over last five seasons, the Iron Condors are 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS, UNDER 11-3 when coming off an embarrassing double-digit ATS loss. 

Rams vs Ravens 
4% Upset Alert on the Ravens plus the points 
0.5% Ravens money line 

Bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a game committing no more than a single turnover and facing an opponent that is coming off a game having lost the turnover battle by 2 or more has earned a 32-11-1 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Rams have won 4 straight games and cover the spread in all those games. They defeated Minnesota 30-23 last week but had three turnovers and forced Minnesota to just one. Harbaugh is 12-3 ATS off three or more consecutive OVERS as the coach of the Ravens. 

Baylor vs Mississippi 
8:45 EST, January 1 

4% best bet on Mississippi  
4% Best Bet UNDER  
After leading the Rebels to a 10-2 record following a season-ending 31-21 Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State, Corral and the No. 8 Rebels will face No. 7 Baylor in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's night. One of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and at least 10 rushing scores (he has 11 on the season), the Ventura, California, native finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting.  

Betting the UNDER in a game with both teams playing well and having won four of more of their last five games and taking on a foe that has won at least 8 of their last 10 games and a total ranging from 52 to 60 points has earned a solid 124-88 record for 59% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 32-18 UNDER for 64% winners over the last three seasons. If the game is a Bowl Game or CFP, the UNDER has earned a 47-22 UNDER record good for 68% winners since 2006 and 12-5 UNDER for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons.  

Lane Kiffin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER following five consecutive games in which his team did not commit more than one turnover. He is also Kiffin is 17-6 ATS off a road win against a conference rival in all games he has coached.  

Utah vs Ohio State 

4% (4-UNIT Best bet) on Ohio State minus the points 

So, four important players are OUT for OSU with WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave, DT Haskell Garrett, and T Nicholas Petit-Frer being the names. Now, on most any other team not named Alabama; this would be a major loss of talent few teams could overcome. Well, Ohio State’s second unit of players would be a ranked team in my opinion, and you will see these replacements for this foursome of NFL-bound starters showcase their skills on a national stage. This game has also a showcase from head coach Brian Day’s offseason recruiting efforts too, so do not think for a second that they will just go through the motions.  

Starting at WR will be freshman Marvin Harrison, Jr. Harrison hails from Philadelphia and played for St. Joseph's Prep and who was the No. 1 ranked WR prospect out of Pennsylvania and graded as a 4-star prospect and ranked 91st in the nation. His father, Marvin Harrison Sr. was an eight-time NFL All-Pro selection who spent his entire 13-year career with the Indianapolis Colts.  

TreVeyon Henderson hails from Hopewell, Virginia and played for the Hopewell High School. Set Ohio State’s freshman rushing record with a 270-yard performance versus Tulsa, breaking a 49-year record held by Archie Griffin, is just the fourth true freshman RB in school history to surpass 1,000 rushing yards, was a Semifinalist for Walter Camp Player of the Year, scored 17 total touchdowns through 10 games to rank tied for fourth nationally, was one of 10 semifinalists (and the only freshman) for the Doak Walker Award, which is presented annually to college football’s best running back. Need more convincing about the OSU depth at the skill positions? I didn’t think so.  

Henderson’s backup is a tremendous running back in his own right. Miyan Williams is 5-8 and 225 pounds of steel-like muscle and is extraordinarily quick and elusive and extremely hard to bring down. I expect him to see a lot more action in this game and he and the OSU offensive line will pound the Utah defense into submission by the second half.  

From my predictive models, OSU is expected to score 27 or more points and force Utah into two or more turnovers. In past games in which OSU met or exceeded these performance measures, OSU has earned an outstanding 99-1 SU record and went 75-24-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons; 19-0 SU, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past three seasons.  

ASU vs Wisconsin 
5-UNIT Best Bet on ASU plus the points 

My predictive model shows a high probability that ASU will score at least 21 points in this game. Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season, 1-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-44 ATS over the last 15 seasons in games in which they allowed 21 or more points.  

Here is one of the best money line betting systems you will ever see and has earned a 22-12 record for 65% winners over the last 10 seasons. The magic is that the system has averaged a +150-underdog wager and subsequently making the Dime Bettor $41,000 in profits on just 34 bets for a monster 150% ROI. Bet on neutral field favorites using the money line in non-conference games that have won two of their last three games and with both teams from the Power-5 conferences.  

76ers vs Nets 

The Nets got James Harden back on the roster late last week and his first two games were dominating and reminded me of his days with the Houston Rockets. However, the story now shifts with the probable return of KD to the lineup and how he and more importantly he and James will play together on the same court tonight. The Nets also got rotation players DeAndre' Bembry, Bruce Brown and James Johnson back over the weekend and LaMarcus Aldridge is also expected to play Thursday. The 76ers have been more at full strength in the past week then at any time over the past month.  

The line opened with the Nets priced as a 3.5-point home favorite and the news of KD’s return has seen a steam move to –5.5 points. The total opened at 217 and the news has since forced the market to move higher now at 222.5 points.  

Betting on teams fresh off a road win over a divisional foe and playing their third game in five days has produced a solid 23-10-1 ATS record for 70% winners over the last five seasons and 17-6 ATS over the last three seasons for 74% winners. 

Purdue vs Tennessee 
One of the largest line moves I have seen for any Bowl Game. Purdue opened as a 3-point favorite and now Tennessee has rolled to be priced as a 7.5-point favorite and I do sincerely believe we are getting a gift opportunity to be Purdue and take the 7.5-points. This will be a pseudo home game for the Volunteers but not worth more than 10-points. 

Tennessee is 7-5 and scored 38 or more points in each of their seven wins, won three of their last four games with the only loss to then-No.1 Georgia and did score 45 or more points in their last six wins. However, Purdue has a defense that shut down some of the best offenses in the Big Ten and they were undoubtedly the giant slayer in Big Ten action. 

Purdue’s defense is led by linebacker Jeremy Banks, who takes great angles to tackle ball carriers and is just never out of position. He led Purdue by a huge margin recording 108 tackles including 4.5 sacks. Defensive back Alontae Taylor had been recovering from a significant foot injury and opted out for this bowl game considering the NFL draft. Even with the NFL draft, I highly doubt he would have been anywhere close to full strength for this game. 

The Boilermakers also have WR and first-team All-American David Bell, who caught 93 balls for 1,286 receiving yards, which was only 21 yards short of the program record held by John Standeford back in the 2002 season.  

My predictive models show that Purdue will score at least 27 points and have more than 150 passing yards than Tennessee will generate. In past games, in which Purdue met or exceeded these measures they have earned an outstanding 9-2 ATS for 82% winners over the last five seasons.  

Oregon vs Oklahoma 
Alamo Bowl 
9:15 EST, December 29, 2021 
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Sooners 
4-UNIT TOTAL OVER 

Betting the OVER in games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points from Week 8 on out to the end of the Bowl season and CFP games, in a matchup of teams that are both allowing 21 to 27.5 yards per game has earned a remarkable 29-8-2 OVER record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

My predictive models expect the Sooners to win this game by double-digits. They also project that the Sooners will score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play. In previous games in which the Sooners met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to earn a 79-31-1 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 3-0 ATS in Bowl Games. 

Miami vs New Orleans 

10-Unit Best Bet on the Saints plus the points. Love the Saints if they remain an underdog. 

Check out this money line betting angle-system that has earned an incredible 38-10 for 79% winning bets over the last 35 seasons, 64-31 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and is 7-2 this season. Bet on any team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and also coming off a road win over a divisional opponent. Talk about letdown for the Dolphins in this matchup in New Orleans. 

Since the 1994 season, teams playing in Week 15 on out to the end of the regular season priced as the favorite have gone just 8-14-1 ATS for 36% winning bets 

Iam Book will be the quarterback for the Saints in this matchup because Trevor Siemian is OUT, Taysom Hill is doubtful due to COVID-19. Let’s not forget this is one of the better defenses in the NFC. The Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. said all QBs on the roster are preparing and studying virtually or at the Dolphins practice facility for the Dolphins and didn't commit to officially starting Book being the starter. Do not be fooled here with a rookie quarterback, who has been inactive for all 14 of the Saints games this season. He reminds of Nick Mullins in that he makes smart decisions, is highly accurate, and is mobile – at least mobile enough to extend plays.  

Note that the Dolphins were having better results with returning starters. Sixth overall draft choice Jaylen Waddle was re-activated from COVID-19 health and safety protocols and is set to continue his pursuit of an NFL rookie record for catches. He has 86 catches this season. However, the betting line moved only a single point after that news, and I would have thought that he was worth at least 2 to 3 points. So, selling into this near-frenzy wave of Dolphins bets makes perfect logic to me.  

The Dolphins are 3-11 and 4-10 ATS for 29% when playing on Mondays dating back to the 2006 season. That is the worst record on Mondays of any team in that span and includes a 38-17 loss at New Orleans in 2013. So, here we go with an upset alert and let’ cash this 5-Unit Best Bet.  Good Luck to US! 

UCF vs Florida 

4% (4-UNIT) Best Bet on Florida minus the points 

Let’s get right to it. Betting on any team, like Florida, that has been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games and the game taking pace in December has earned a highly profitable 56-21-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS and 78% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

My predictive models project that Florida will score at least 31 points and will gain an average of 6.5 or more yards per play. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone to earn a 20-3 SU record and 16-5-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

Green Bay vs Baltimore

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Ravens plus the points.

The NFL season has reached Week 15 and every team is dealing with a multitude of injuries and made worse by the surge in COVID positive test results across the league. The Ravens have lost two straight games and standings have tightened up considerably with 4th place Steelers just 1.5-games behind and Bengals and Browns just one-game behind with four games to play. The Ravens past two losses have been by a combined three points.

Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback should Lamar not be able to make the start nursing a sprained ankle. You may remember we bet on the Ravens when he first started this season and they won outright. So, I am not basing this pick on the quarterback situation.

Packers scored 45 points in their laugher against the Bears, however the Packers are just 3-7 ATS after scoring 44 or more points.

Betting on teams using the money line that are coming off two consecutive tough defeats of fewer than seven points each to a divisional foe and taking on an opponent coming off a home win are 22-12 for 65%, but has averaged a sensational +150 underdog bet and has made the Dime Bettor a $22,000 profit.

Betting on winning record dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after Week 13 and facing a foe with a win percentage 75% or better and has covered the spread by at least 35 points over their last seven games has earned a 13-5 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last seven seasons.

Cincinnati vs Denver

4-UNIT Bet on the Denver Broncos

The last four times these teams collided the results were decided by a total of just nine points. The Bengals defeated the Broncos in their last trip to Mile High Stadium, but had lost the previous 10 games. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner takes a huge forward to securing a playoff spot while the loser takes a plunge into the depths of playoff pretenders.

Shout out to Ralph Michaels, who has been giving me some cool shoutouts on the Bet On It show almost weekly now, for the following angle.  In a game lined within the 3’s, with one team coming off an ATS win and SU win and with the opponent coming off an ATS loss and SU loss has earned a solid 53-30 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons. Denver is coming off a home 38-10 scrimmage against the Lions, which was their largest home win in seven seasons. The Bengals lost 26-23 as a 1-point dog hosting the 49ers.

Denver is the bet.

Houston vs Jacksonville

4-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars minus the points

The dismissal of head coach Urban Meyer gives the Jaguars a deep exhale and can now focus more on the game of football. When a horrid coaching situation is removed from his coach responsibilities the team often finds greater motivation and finds ways to play far better than previous games. I think this is the Jaguars situation and they do have a solid defensive unit that gets after the quarterback. In fact, first game coaches in weeks 11 through the end of the regular season and facing an opponent that has four or fewer wins are 14-9 ATS for 61% and when favored an even better 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets last five seasons.

Middle Tennessee State vs Toledo

Noon EST, December 16, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on Middle Tennessee State plus the points

MTST has had immense difficulty retaining quarterbacks this season losing two that left the team and another, whose season ended due to a leg injury. They had to turn to true-freshman Nicholas Vattiato, who is from Plantation, Florida. He is an excellent quarterback and making the most of his opportunity to step in and run the offense. Played in five games and had four starts

He Ended the regular season by completing 92 of 136 passes (67.6%) for 777 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 18 yards

He was in on 256 total snaps and graded out a winner three times and voted to the C-USA All-Freshman Team. Completed 20 of 24 passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns in win over FIU to earn the team’s offensive player of the game award. Set an MTST true freshman record in completions (34), attempts (49) and passing yards (304) against Old Dominion.

Toledo head coach Candle is just 3-12 ATS for 20% when coming off a home win over a conference rival. Toledo is 9-22 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.  

Bet MTST plus the points and sprinkle a 0.5 unit on the money line as well.

Wizards vs Kings

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on the Wizards minus the points

Kings opened as 1-point favorites and now the market has moved three points through pick to make Wizards a 2-point favorite.  I fully agree with the market movement and so do my predictive models.

Betting on road teams that have lost five or more of their last seven games with a winning record on the season and facing a losing record team has done well earning a 33-9 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. Wizards have lost five of the last six games and failed to cover in all but one of them. That lone game was a push in a 116-110 road loss at Indiana. Kings have lost three straight games and have a losing 11-17 record for the season.

Nebraska – Omaha vs UNLV

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on Nebraska – Omaha plus 19.5 points.

The bet is valid if Nebraska-Omaha (NOU) is a 17.5-point or greater underdog.

When is a nine-game losing streak a good thing? When the team we are betting is in a nine-game slide and there is a 77% ATS 25-year money-making machine supporting them. This angle has hit 77% ATS winners for the last 25 seasons on a 31-10 ATS record over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS over the last five seasons and is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons. Bet on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have lost their last nine games in the month of December. The losing streak start in November, but the current game must be played in December.

Marshall vs Ohio University

7 EST 12-15

4-UNIT best bet on Marshall +3.5 points

Ohio is 1-8 ATS after scoring 60 or fewer points in their previous game spanning the last three seasons. Ohio is 19-44 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points. Marshall head coach D’Antoni is 12-4 ATS coming off a double-digit road win.

Take Marshall plus the points

LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals

10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points

The Cardinals have won all 7 of their road games by double-digits and covered the spread. At home, though, 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Plus, only the Packers had a winning record in these five home games, which the Cardinals lost 24-21 as a 6.5-point home favorite in week 8.

The Rams are looking more and more like a NFC Conference finalist. They had lost three games to the spread by a combined total of 53.5 points. They first lost at home to the Tennessee Titans, who are in the thick of the AFC playoff’s top-seed, then back-to-back road losses to divisional foe San Francisco and then the Packers. Granted, it was against the offensively challenged Jacksonville Jaguars, but last week, they righted their ship and won 37-7 and covered as 13-point favorites.

My models rank the Rams and New England tied for the best overall team in the NFL. The Rams are fifth overall in total offense, while Arizona is 13th. Arizona ranks 6th in passing while the Rams come in a 11th. The Rams rank 11th with their ground attack, but the Cardinals are a miserable 27th and this is where the monumental advantages are for the Rams tonight.

The Rams defense is incredibly good and in my opinion, monumentally underrated. They rank best against the run and pass rush per my models. The Rams will not need to bring any safeties to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and that puts immense pressure on the Arizona passing attack. Aaron Donald (709 snaps) , Jordan Fuller (774 snaps), and Jalen Ramsey (776 snaps) have all played incredibly well and consistent this season. They have the experience too knowing the meaning of this game and their drive to the NFC Championship.

Rams head coach McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after having failed to covered the number in two of his last three games. Plus, he is 21-10-1 ATS in road games against NFC conference foes.

Betting on road underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 of their last four games and is now facing an opponent hat has covered the number in three of their last four games has earned an incredible 27-5-1 ATS record for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 19-5 ATS over the last three seasons.

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

4:25 PM EST, December 5, 2021
5-Unit Best Bet on the SF 49ers minus the points

Betting on teams that are in a conference matchup lined between the 3s and is facing an opponent, like Seattle, who has gone UNDER the posted total by a combined 35 or more points in total over their previous five games has earned a 70-33 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

Bettin on road favorites with a winning record that are facing a host that have lost four of their last five games has earned a 38-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

Eli Mitchell had 133 rushing yards last week, his fourth 100+ yard rushing game this year. Ricky Waters back in the 1992 season is last 49er rookies to turn that trick. The ground game for the 49ers has improved monumentally over the recent weeks and I believe it will only continue to get better. The 49wers also sports the best red zone efficiency in the NFL at 77% success rate. They have scored a 24 TDs on 31 trips into the red zone.

Deebo Samuel, who has emerged as one of the bigger offensive weapons from multiple positions on the field in the NFL, is expected to be out with a groin injury. Although a significant loss to the dynamic of the 49ers offense, it does not change my opinion on this game in the least. The last time Deebo was out for a game, several players stepped up their contributions. For instance, Trent Sherfield will certainly see more snaps.

Seahawks cannot run the ball with any success. For instance, they had five consecutive three-and-out possessions in Week 12 against Washington. A game they should have won, but how could they when they had just 10 first downs and less than 20 minutes of possession.  

Seattle vs Washington

8:20 PM EST, November 29, 2021
10-Unit MNF Top-Rated Titan on the Seattle Seahawks

The following betting system has earned an insanely profitable 25-5 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet on losing record road teams after week 8 that are facing a host after having won two of their three games and has won between 40 and 49% of their games on the season. This system is 14-2 ATS over the last five seasons.

Pete Carroll is Carroll is 9-1 ATS after scoring 17 or fewer points in two straight games as the coach of Seattle. He is also 16-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle. Last, he is 18-5 ATS when facing struggling passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle.

Seattle has scored 13 points in their last two games, both double-digit losses to the NFC West divisional rivals Arizona Cardinals (23-13) and the Green Bay Packers (17-0). The last time Seattle lost back-to-back games by double digits was in Weeks 8-9 of the 2011 season. Since returning from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has not thrown a touchdown pass for only the second time in his career. He went three consecutive games without a touchdown pass in the 2016 season.

In the 2016 season following those three games that Wilson failed to connect on a scoring touchdown, they defeated the Buffalo Bills 31-25 and pushed the line as 6-point home favorites. Going back to the 2000 season, the Seahawks regardless of who was the QB have earned a 7-3-1 ATS record for 70% winning bets.

Seattle’s defense has been playing well and ranks second in the NFL with a 19.2 yards per point allowed ratio. This ratio means that an opponent needs to gain 19.2 yards to get one point on the scoreboard. The higher the value the better the defense with numbers approaching and exceeding 20 yards per point representing elite defenses and those ratios approaching 12 or lower representing struggling defensive units. Washington ranks 28th in the NFL with a 13.8 yards per point allowed and I do see the Seattle offense having a big night. The opposite is true on the offensive side of the ball. Seattle ranks 16th with a 15.4 yards per point and Washington is at 23rd with a 16.4 yards per point ratio. Seattle is the better team on both sides of the ball and we are getting a very cheap price at pick-em.

Tulane vs Memphis

7:30 PM EST, November 27, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on Tulane plus the [points and sprinkle 0.75 UNITS on the money line

I will get right to it and start with this terrific money line betting angle that has systematically earned a 38-28 record for 58% winning bets and by averaging a whopping +200 underdog bet, the Dime Bettor has made a $47,000 profit over the last 25 seasons and earned $24,000 on a 32-35 losing record. This is the strength and value of identifying underdogs in college football that can win the game too.

From my predictive models I expect Tulane to gain a minimum of 5.0 YPPL and score 28 or more points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to a 46-15 SU record and a 50-10 ATS mark for 83.3% winners since 2013.

Bet Tulane as a 5% Best Bet

Penn State vs Michigan State

3:30 PM EST, November 26, 2021

4% Best bet on Penn State minus the points

When conference foes look to upset an alite power house program like Ohio State and fail miserably the hangover can be massive and in some games season-low performances have happened. Home dogs that played Ohio State in their previous game have gone 32-45-3 ATS for 42% wins. If our home dog lost to Ohio State in the previous game our home pup is a money-burning 12-45-3 ATS for 21% wins OR playing against these emotionally wounded home dogs have hit 79% winning bets since 1980. Over the last 10 season, these dogs are 2-14-1 ATS for just 12.5% wins and 0-11 ATS if also off an ATS double-digit loss.

UTSA vs North Texas

2:00 PM EST, November 27, 2021

4-Unit Best bet on North Texas

North Texas is 16-5 ATS off three straight wins against conference rivals. Both of these teams are running hot and it would be a shame to see UTSA’s perfect season go to the trash bin. I think they will get the win in possibly a last minute game winning score, but will not win the game by double digits.

Betting on teams that are on a three or more-game win streak and are facing a team that is on a five or more game win streak has earned a 140-116-10 ATS for 5% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our team is hosting the game, they improve to 58-39-3 for 60% winners. If our host is the dog they have earned a 25-16 record for 61% ATS winners and if our homer is a double-digit underdog they have gone 8-3 ATS for 73% winners.

Maryland vs Rutgers

Noon EST, November 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on Maryland

Maryland and Rutgers need a win to become bowl eligible. So, how do 5 win teams in the final game of the regular season perform ? Road teams sporting 5-6 records and coming off a loss are 39-21-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 5-6 record hosts that are coming off a loss are a money-burning 29-34-1 for 46% ATS last10 seasons. Both Rutgers and Maryland qualify as must-win to be bowl eligible teams.

Rutgers is 1-7 ATS for 12% wins when the current game is at home in games spanning the last 10 seasons; 3-15 ATS in home games after scoring 6 or fewer points in the previous game; 13-30 ATS in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games. Maryland is a money-making 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival.

Georgia vs Georgia Tech

Noon ET, November 27, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on Georgia First half line minus the points

I do not remember the last time I wagered on a favorite of more than -31 points, but trust me it is rare and there are strong reasons I am betting on the Georgia Bulldogs. However, we are looking at the first half line here because of the risk that Georgia gets out to a huge lead and then looks to get their starters out of the game knowing the SEC Championship game is on deck.

Betting on the first half line with favorites of 17.5 or more points competing against a foe that scored fewer than 10 points has earned a sensational 35-11 ATS record using the first half line in games played over the last 10 seasons. With a current first half line of 20.5 points this is a great opportunity with a team that is historically one of the best over the last 2 decades at least.

Georgia’s defense has attained an incredible 31.4 defensive yards-per-point measure. That means that opponents have had to gain 31 yards to get a single point on the scoreboard. The second-best defensive unit in the nation is Penn State and they are light years behind Georgia sporting a 21.5 YPPT measure.

ILLINOIS (4 - 6) at IOWA (8 - 2)

Week 12 Saturday, 11/20/2021 2:00 PM EST

4-UNIT Best Bet on Illinois plus the points

9-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive UNDERS and 6-0 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive UNDERS over the last three seasons. Ferentz is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa. 

Double digit underdogs of 11.5 or more points in a game with a posted total of less than 40-points are 26-12-3 ATS for 68.4% winners. If the game occurs in the Power-5 Conferences, our pup is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS. 

Michigan State vs Ohio State

Noon ET, 11-20-2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Ohio State minus the points

Ohio State (9-1, 7-0 Big Ten) is coming off its most efficient offensive performance of the season and that is just not the news that the overachieving Spartans wanted to hear. OSU had scoring touchdowns on its first six possessions in a 59-31 win against Purdue last week. MSU does have the nation’s best runner of the football in Kenneth Walker, who has gained 1,473 rushing yards including 17 TDs, and their QB Payton Thorne, who is second in the conference to OSU’s sensational CJ Stroud with 21 touchdown passes. 

Stroud has had three games in which he threw for five touchdowns without throwing an interception. OSU leads the nation scoring an average of 46.3 PPG and the MSU defense has a nearly impossible task of containing this explosive offense. 

In Week 11 and on during the regular season, teams that are ranked higher in the AP poll and are favored by 14.5 or more points are 29-1 SU and 17-11-2 ATS for 61% winners and if the game is in Week 11 and beyond, they are 26-1 SU and 17-9-1 for 67% winners. 

From the predictive models I have developed over more than two decades there is a high probability that OSU will score at least 28 points and/or gain at least 7.5 yards per play and/or gain 500 or more total offensive yards. Over the past ten seasons, OSU is 62-1 SU and 44-17-1 ATS for 72% winners when scoring 28 or more and gaining 500 or more yards. 

Iowa State vs Oklahoma

Noon EST, November 20, 2021

4-UNIT best bet on Iowa State plus the points

Campbell is 12-2 ATS off a close loss of seven or fewer points to a conference rival as the coach of ISU. 

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in Weeks 10 through end of the regular season that are off an upset road loss have earned a 86-44 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 31-16-1 ATS over the last ten seasons. 

Carolina vs Arizona

4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points

Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is completing 64% or more of their passes and is coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt has earned a 52-25 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. This angle works against Arizona and underscores the probability that Arizona will have some form of regression on offense.

Betting on road dogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 out of their last four games and facing a host that has covered the number in 3 of their last four games has earned a 38-19 ATS record good for 65.5% winners since 2014 and 10-5 ATS if our highway traveler is a double-digit underdog.

From the predictive models, we are looking for the Carolina offense to gain 125 or more rushing yards and for the Carolina defense to force two or more turnovers. In past games when the Panthers have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 38-10-1 SU record and a 42-7 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets. Perfect 4-0 ATS when installed as a road double-digit underdog.

Minnesota vs LA Chargers

4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Minnesota Vikings

Betting on teams after Week 8 and in a game that is priced within 3 points on either side of pick and is coming off a SU loss, but did cover the number has earned a 122-95 ATS record for 56.2% winners. Drilling down further, if our team is on the road, the record improves to 47-20- ATS for 70% winners since 2014.

Also, teams like the Vikings that are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and facing a host that is forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after week 8 has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winners since 2017.

Tampa Bay vs Washington

1:00 PM EST, November 14, 2011

10-UNIT Best Bet on Tampa Bay minus the points

The Bucs are rolling and with a veteran GOAT Tom Brady at the lead, they will not go into Landover, Md thinking the game is won before it is played. Since Brady arrived the Bucs are 5-1 ATS with the average margin of victory 15.7 points. Once again the Bucs defense is playing well and this is not good news for the Football Team, who has not had multiple touchdowns in each of the last three games, and have had four on the season. Only Houston is worse with give games scoring one or fewer touchdowns. 

Brady said, "I don't think there's one area we can't be better," and his teammates are focused on responding to that 36-27 loss to the Saints. "Come in and continue to put the work in every day regardless of what the outcome was in the Saints game," safety Antoine Winfield Jr. said. "Just to come back here and continue to work because we have a nice stretch ahead of us. Come out here and continue to be better and go out there and win games." When I see statements in the press like these, it immediately reflects the focus the team has to get better – not to win the Super Bowl – the Super Bowl win occurs because the focus all season has been to get better each week. 

The Bucs lead the NFL in passing offense gaining 327.5 yards per game and scoring  at 32.5 PPG. Brady has thrown throwing for 2,650 yards and a league-high 25 touchdowns through eight games. The 44-year-old GOAT, for the first time in his career, has a plethora of playmakers to connect with on the field. Receiver Mike Evans, will be the third-fastest to 70 TDs in NFL history with his next TD catch. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and tight ends Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate round out the incredible depth the Bucs possess. 

Betting on road favorites that allow 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a horrid defense allowing at least 27 PPG on the season has earned a 39-16-3 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five season. If our favorite is lined between 4.5 and 11.5 points the record soars to an incredible 21-4 ATS mark for 84% winning bets. 

From my predictive models one projection stands out and has a high probability of being achieved in the game. Football team is 2-12 ATS in when they have allowed 400 or more total yards in games played over the last three seasons. 

Rutgers vs Indiana

Noon EST, November 13, 2021

4% (4-UNIT)  Bet on Rutgers

Indiana is on a five-game losing streak and the magic of last season seems like it was decades ago. Coach Allen is a master motivator and one of the most respected teachers and mentors in the College ranks, but sometimes there is just too many mountains to climb over. In their last game, they were dominated on both sides of the ball in a 29-7 loss to Michigan. The loss also removed them from any chance of being bowl eligible making it even more difficult for ANY team to respond with a massive performance.

Rutgers (4-5, 1-5) is coming off a 52-3 home beat down to Wisconsin, BUT remain bowl eligible if they win two more games. During the Wisconsin loss, the team lost wide receiver and kick returner Aron Cruickshank to a season-ending injury. QB Noah Vedral, who sustained an undisclosed injury in the third quarter and did not return, will be starting in this game from all that I have read. Moreover, Vedral starting is not a condition for this play to be valid as Rutgers does possess many backups at the position that are more than ready to step and take advantage of the audition for next year. The players are Cole Snyder, Evan Simon or true freshman Gavin Wimsatt.

Betting on road teams after scoring 3 or fewer points in the first half last game and that are facing a host, who scored 9 or fewer points in their last game has produced a highly profitable 25-5-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 13-3 ATS over the last three seasons.

Michigan vs Penn State

Noon EST, November 13, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on PSU plus the points.

Michigan is just 10-23 ATS in road games and coming off a cover by double digits. PDSU head coach Franklin is 14-3 ATS coming off a road conference win and 12-4 ATS coming off a win of 17 or more points and 15-3 ATS off a road win. PSU is also 16-4 ATS coming off a game in which they committed no turnovers.

This matchup is all about the vastly under rated PSU defense that ranks in the top-5 in many of the meaningful advanced analytics. They rank 3rd nationally with a defensive 20.8 yards per point allowed, for instance, and I believe Michigan’s offense is going to have a nightmare trying to move the chains in Happy Valley, which has the best home field advantage of 6-points.

From the predictive models, Michigan is 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when committing 2 or more turnovers and 9-25 ATS when allowing 250 or more passing yards. Dotson and QB Clifford are expected to connect on deep vertical routes where the Michigan defense is the most vulnerable.

Ohio U vs Eastern Michigan

8:00 PM EST, November 9, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on EMU

EMU is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) against teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.

Ohio has not been a strong finishing team to the regular season and are just 10-22 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13. Ohio head coach Solich is 7-17 ATS in road games after being out gained by opponent by 125 or more total yards last game.

From the predictive models qwe learn that Ohio is a money-burning 25 ATS this season, 3-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 40-85 ATS the last 20 seasons when allowing 28 or more points in game. EWMU is 3-3 ATS this season, 13-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 54-24 ATS over the last 20 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. 

New England vs Carolina

1:00 PM EST, November 7, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points

Christian McCaffrey is expected to return from injured reserve this week and is eligible to play in this game.  He has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and Carolina is just 1-4 in those games. McCaffrey has missed 18 of the team's past 24 games with injuries, but he is back for this game, and he is rested and healed. I expect him to be on a snap count with Chuba Hubbard, Royce Freeman and Ameer Abdullah to be actively involved in the game plan. Carolina can run different formations with and without McCaffery in the game and I do believe that alone will keep the Patriots guessing and off balance.

Zane Gonzalez, who has made 13 of 15 field-goal attempts and 13 of 14 extra points. He was 4 of 4 on field goals last week vs. Atlanta, including a career-long of 57 yards to earn NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors.

I like this bet as a 5- UNIT wager even if McCaffery is OUT for this game should there be a mishap in the warmup sessions. This play is far more about the Carolina defense matching up quite well against Mac Jones and the Patriots offense.

Carolina ran 47 rushing plays gaining 203 yards in their win against the Falcons in Week 8. The 47 rushing attempts was the fourth-highest single-game total in Panthers history and their highest since 2009. So, with McCaffery back in action, the Panthers will establish the ground attack against the Patriots run defense that ranks 16th in the league.

The Panthers have a tremendous pass rush and recorded three sacks last week and shut down a very good statistical QB in Matt Ryan. The Panthers defense ranks 2nd allowing 295.6 yards per game and their secondary is among the best. They rank third allowing just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 2nd allowing 188.8 passing yards per game, and 4th with a 7.6% sack percentage.

This is a highly profitable money line betting angle that has posted a 35-9 record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the dime bettor a profit of $26,000. Bet on a team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and is coming off a road win over a divisional rival. If our team is playing at home, the record has been 23-6 for 79% winning bets.

From the predictive model, we learn that the Panthers are an incredible 54-9-2 ATS for 86% winning bets and 61-4 SU in home games scoring 24 or more points and winning the turnover battle (having fewer turnovers than the opponent) and 7-1 ATS over the last three seasons.

Bet the Carolina Panthers as a 5- UNIT Best Bet

Indiana vs Michigan

7:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4- UNIT Best Bet on the Indiana Hoosiers plus the points.

Now, that you purchased this 3-pack, I like taken a flyer on these three dogs that I just like quite a bit and doing a 0.25 unit round robin parlay. As I have stated on so many CFB shows as a host or guest over the past several weeks there have been 17 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that have WON the game this season. There were seven such dogs in 2020 and much lower number because COVID-19 eliminated so many games.  In the 2018 season there were 24 of these dogs that won outright.

Top-20 ranked favorites of 17.5 or more points that is coming off a disheartening loss as a road favorite to a ranked opponent are 2-9 ATS in their next game since the 2012 season (5-1 ATS are these dogs if their current opponent lost in a matchup of Top-10 ranked teams).

Michigan is just 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. Master coaching motivator Allen is Allen is 10-2 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of IU.

Baylor vs TCU

3:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4-Unit best Bet on TCU plus the points and sprinkle the money line too.

Here is a terrific betting angle that is bet using the money line and has made the Dime Bettor a $36,000 profit averaging a +210 underdog bet over the last five seasons. Bet on home teams after losing to the spread by 28 or more points over their last three games, is a losing team not winning more than 40% of their games on the season and now facing a winning record team.

This angle is 3-3 this season and has made that dime bettor $2,750, 12-6 making the dime bettor $25,000 over the last three seasons.

Auburn vs Texas A&M

3:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4-Unit best Bet on Auburn plus the points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line.

Aggies are a money-burning 2-10 ATS off the BYE since joining the SEC is 2012.

Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game forced, and with the dog coming off two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers has earned an outstanding 55-20 ATS record good for 73^ winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle is a solid 8-3 ATS this season.

From my predictive models, Auburn is expected to score at least 28 points in this game and when they have scored 28 or more points in past games has earned a 4-1 ATS mark this season, 14-2 ATS 88% wins, and 125-48 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Wake Forest vs North Carolina

Noon, November 6, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on UNC plus the points

I will get to the point. UNC is 34-16 ATS for 68% winners coming off a game in which they gained 525 or more yards spanning the past three seasons. Brown is 11-3 OVER after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of UNC. 

From the predictive models, UNC is expected to gain 500 or more yards. In past games in which they did game at least 525 total yards they went 12-6-1 over the last three seasons and 43-15 ATS over the last 15 seasons. They are 15-5 gaining 525 or more yards in home games and 4-1 ATS for 80% as a DOG. 

Ohio State vs Nebraska

Noon EST, November 6, 2021

8- UNIT Best Bet Nebraska plus the points

 NU committed four turnovers in their 28-23 home loss to Purdue. Note, that they are 25-12 for 68% winners coming off a game in which they committed four or more turnovers. Calls for NU head coach Scott Frost grew louder after the loss to Purdue as his conference record dropped to 15-26 and 6-15 in the West Division of the B10. However, 17 losses have been by one score during Frost’s 4 years at the helm and definitely do not think he has lost his team even just a little bit. 

The Buckeyes may lead the nation in scoring offense averaging 47.3 PPG, but they had seven false starts in their home win over Penn State. The Buckeyes were 1-for-6 in the red zone against the second-best defense in the nation based on my numbers. PSU QB Clifford shredded the Ohio State secondary – as I had predicted in my top-rated 5-UNIT best bet winner last week – for 361 passing yards. The OSU came to the aid of the sputtering offense with a huge game-changing 57 yard TD fumble return. Bottom line, PSU had the game plan to upset the Buckeyes and you can bet Frost and his staff have been studying that in great detail. 

Frost is 6-0 ATS after losing 5 or 6 of their last seven games. After throwing just three interceptions in the first eight games, NU QB Adrian Martinez, threw four interceptions in the loss to Purdue. Frost was a starting QB for Nebraska. He knows the ups and downs of being a QB at the highest level of NCAAF play and I am looking for Martinez to have a huge game. Remember, that OSU secondary has been attacked this season and Martinez and wideouts have the skillsets to exploit that secondary all game. 

Betting against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in a game with two solid scori ng defenses allowing between 16 and 21 points per game and with the favorite coming off back to back games scoring at least 20 points in each of the last two games in the first half has earned a 42-14 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last 30 seasons, 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last five seasons, and 17-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Liberty vs Ole Miss Rebels

Noon ET, November 6, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on Mississippi minus the points. 

This is the second time that Liberty will take on an SEC foe. The first one was a 59-0 loss to Auburn as a 28.5 point dog back in week 11 of the 2018 season. Liberty has without doubt become a much stronger football program since then, but they do not have the depth, especially on defense to contain the high-powered fast paced offensive style of play that Kiffin employs. Moreover, this marks the third game they have been ranked and favored by single digits to an unranked foe. They are 2-0 ATS in the previous two games. 

From my predictive models, there is a high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points. They are 5-1 ATS this season, 14-5 the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points. They are 8-0 ATS in games outgaining their opponent by 200 or more yards and scoring 28 or more points. 

Penn State vs Ohio State

7:30 PM EST, October 30, 2021

5-UNIT Contrarian Game of the Month on the Penn State Nittany Lions

 The line for this huge showdown in the Big Ten opened with the Buckeyes installed as 16.5 point home favorites and has seen steady one-sided action on the Buckeyes propelling the line to 19.5 points. Penn State lost to Illinois last week in an FBS-record nine overtimes, 20-18. The Nittany Lions have now lost two in a row after winning their first five, though both losses were decided by three or fewer points. 78% of the tickets are on the PSU based on the 12 sportsbooks I track and that is just a sign of recency bias and irrational exuberance that lends itself to this contrarian bet. 

Here is a contrarian style betting system that has earned an incredible 29-6 ATS record over the last five seasons and is 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on dogs between 10 and 21 points that have not covered the spread in two of their last three games and is facing an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last seven games. 

If the hot running high powered favorite is coming off back-to-back wins of 35 or more points and now facing a team that has lost to the spread in 2 of their last three games, the record is a horrid 2-9 ATS. 

Betting on teams coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing an opponent that is coming off three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored are a highly profitable 39-14-1 ATS for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

There have been 17 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that have the game straight up this season. Just 7 such monster dog wins in 2020 due to COVID reducing the overall number of games played. 108 17.5 points that won outright since the start of the 2016 season. In Week 8 of this season Illinois was a 18 point dog to PSU, Rice was a 24 point dog to UAB and won 30-24, and New Mexico defeated Wyoming 14-3 as a 30-point road underdog. 

Here is a money betting system that underscores the contrarian nature of these types of games and why they often grade extremely strong by my predictive models. Bet on a game after game number 7 with an offensive team averaging 340 to 400 yards-per-game and is now facing an opponent coming off a game in which they gained over 475 total yards and is an excellent offensive team averaging more than 440 total yards per game. If you had bet on these situations over the last 10 seasons using the money the money line, you would have gone 29-31 for just 48% winners, but by averaging a whopping +285 underdog bet, you would have profited 50 units in winnings. 

Ohio State’s defense is vulnerable to the PSU offense exploiting their secondary. Dotson has not caught a TD pass in two games, but I would be shocked if he did not catch at least one in this game. Dotson and the Buckeyes Garrett Wilson are the only players in the Big Ten with at least 550 receiving yards (552) and six touchdown catches. 

Here’s the deal. I love Penn State’s defense and they do rank 3rd in the nation and tops in the Big Ten with a 22.0 yards per point ratio (YPPT). Georgia is having a historic season and rank best defense with an incredible 31.8 YPPT ratio. Clemson is second with a 23.2 YPPT ratio. I know OSU has three weapons in Wilson and Chris Olave and true freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson, who leads the country average g 8.8 yards-per-rush. 

The Buckeyes have not had a turnover in three consecutive games and somehow the Lions defense is going to force at least two of them based on my predictive models. Since 2016, the Buckeyes have played three straight games committing not one turnover but are 0-2 ATS the following game. The last time that happened for the Buckeyes, Penn State came to Columbus and won 27-26 in week 5 of the 2018 season.

Georgia vs Florida

TIIA Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

4-UNIT Best bet on Georgia minus the points

Stetson Bennett has been named the starter at QB for the bulldogs and former-starter JT McDaniels upgraded to available for this game in Jacksonville, FL. 

Betting on favorites of 10 to 21 points that are coming off a game in which 60 or more points were scored and after coming off back-to-back games in which seven or fewer points were allowed in the first half has earned a 76-37-1 SATS record for 68% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. 

My research simply states that we may be watching one of the best CFB ever or at least the last 2 decades. Even though both teams were idle last week, Georgia and Florida enter their annual showdown heading in opposite directions. The Bulldogs have been dominant, outscoring their seven opponents -- including four who were ranked -- 269-46, culminating with their 30-13 win over then-No. 11 Kentucky on Oct. 16.

The play of Georgia's defense has emerged as one of the biggest storylines of the season nationally. The Bulldogs have given up a national-best 6.6 points per game, nearly eight points fewer than Michigan, which ranks second at 14.3 points per game. Georgia also ranks first nationally in total defense (208.3 ypg) and first downs allowed (84), in addition to ranking second in rushing defense (63.4 ypg) and passing defense (144.9 ypg).

Meantime, Florida is coming off a 49-42 loss against LSU on Oct. 16. The Tigers rushed for 321 yards on 45 attempts, an average of more than seven yards a carry. LSU amassed 454 yards of total offense against the Gators, who lost for the third time in their past five games since opening 2-0.

True freshman tight end Brock Bowers - who leads the Bulldogs in receptions (25), yards (416) and receiving touchdowns (6) -- and redshirt freshman receiver Ladd McConkey, who has 17 catches for 295 yards and two scores, have emerged as the team's top receivers.

The Gators' question at quarterback stems from their season-opening starter, junior Emory Jones, being inconsistent. Jones started in the 49-42 loss to LSU, but he was pulled in favor of freshman Anthony Richardson, who led the Gators into the end zone on four straight possessions in the second half. However, they both threw two interceptions.

Bennett has started the past three games and has played in the past six. He's completed 57-of-82 passing for 996 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He's also had 19 carries for 148 yards on the ground. 

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma

3:30 PM EST,  Octobwer 30, 2021

4- UNIT Best Bet on Texas Tech plus the points

This is one oof those dogs I have referenced on many shows this CFB season. There have been 14 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that won the game SU. This monumental upset occurs every season averaging 14 times. This year I have my 5- UNIT SEC game of the Month on Texas A&M in their win over then-No. 1 Alabama. I nor anybody else on the planet knows when these major upsets will take place, but this one is certainly worth a sprinkle of no more than 1- UNIT using the money line. 

Texas Tech lost their head coach Matt Wells after a very horrid stretch in which Tech allowed 70 to the Longhorns and 52 to TCU at home two weeks ago. This past week Tech blew a 24-10 half time lead. Teams and their players have pride and motivation to respond to adversity – or they simply would not be playing football at the highest level. So, I think former OC Sonny Cumbie will get his team fully motivated to play their best and mpost physical game this season. Last, if you take away the 76-0 win against FCS Western Carolina, the Sooners’ average score in their seven FBS games this season has been by a margin of eight points and 37-29. 

From my predictive model, Tech is 12-6 ATS over the L3 seasons and 150-64 ATS L15 seasons in games scoring 28 or more points. Let’s see what happens here as the models are on Tech and yes they do know this is the first week having a new head coach. 

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points

49ers coming off the BYE and that is always a good thing for bettors to back knowing that Shanahan is 5-0 ATS coming off three losses. Plus, Colts on a 3 game ats win streak while the 49ers are on a three game ATS losing streak. Teams that are on a 3 or more-game ATS losing streak that are facing a foe on a 3 or more-game ATS win streak are 27-14 for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in a prime time slot, these teams are 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the last ten seasons. 

Do not be misled by the Colts win over Houston. The Colts led the Texans by just 16 yards at the half and had a suspect 10-3 lead. Texans fumbled the ball away near midfield leading to a Colts score. 

Despite the 49ers not having Garoppolo at the helm the 49ers lead the NFL averaging 7.3 yards gain after the catch. They rank 23rd averaging 5.8 air yards per catch, which is the distance form the line of scrimmage to the point on the field where the receiver catches the ball. So, with Garoppolo on the injured list, the offense under Trey Lance was reduced to a dink and dunk scheme. Now, he is back today, the 49ers full offensive playbook will be available, and I believe it will have a high dose of vertical crossing routes. 

49ers will be effective with their ground attack, and this opens up play action, which they have run only 51 times this season. They rank 15th in play action pass plays and when Garoppolo is in platy action he becomes so much better. 

From the predictive models, we learn that San Fran is 9-1 ATS in home games when gaining 250 or yards of total offense and scoring more than 24 points in games played over the last five seasons. 

Washington vs Green Bay

1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Best bet on the Football team plus the points

Washington has allowed 30 or more points in four consecutive games, which matches a franchise record done twice before in the 1954 and 2020 seasons. However, note that teams that have allowed 30+ points in three or more consecutive games in week 6 or later are a solid investment returning a 37-19 ATS record for 67% winning bets sine 1990 and 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets. 

Packers are just 9-22 ATS when facing a terrible defense that is allowing 6 or more yards per play on the season. Washington HC Rivera is 9-1 ATS in a road game and has failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games for his career. 

Kansas City vs Tennessee

1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Best bet on the Chiefs minus the points

Betting on favorites that are facing a team that is coming off 3 or more consecutive OVER games and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game has earned a 47-11 ATS record good for 77% wining bets over the last five seasons and has earned a 22-6 ATS record over the last three seasons. 

Tennessee is just 11-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Reid is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or fewer points in the last game. 

From the predictive side of things we know that the Chiefs are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed no more than 250 net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons. 

West Virginia vs TCU

7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2021

4-Uni Bet on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points

Both teams have had disappointing starts to their seasons. No one thought WVU would be 2-4 through 7 weeks and would share the last place with Kansas and Kansas State. TCU is fresh off a 52-31 loss to Oklahoma in Norman, but had a career-best performance from QB Max Duggan and WR Quentin Johnston. Duggan injured his foot, but has been cleared to start in this game.

West Virginia ranks in the bottom half of the conference in most significant offensive categories, including rushing offense (111.8 yards per game, last in the B12).

The Mountaineers' problem running the ball is gives TCU a monumental advantage at the line of scrimmage. Leddie Brown ran for 1,010 yards last season and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection, is rushing for an average of just 70.3 yards per game this season. The offensive line run blocking has been terrible to say the least and they are not getting a push down field or maintaining blocks long enough for Brown to shoot through the gaps.

From the predictive models, TCU is projected to pass for an average of at least 10 yards per pass attempt and score at least 28 points. In past games over the last 5 seasons, TCU is 24-13 ATS for 65% when scoring 28 or more points. They are 8-1-1 ATS in games scoring 28+ and averaging 10 or more YPPA over the last five seasons.

New Mexico vs Wyoming

3:30 October 23, 2021

4-UNIT BET on the New Mexico Lobos plus the points

Wyoming is just 4-17 ATS coming off a game in which 24 or fewer points were scored. Wyoming was blanked by Fresno State 17-0 last week. Wyoming 1-5 ATS off a game scoring three or fewer points. 

There may be as many as six different quarterbacks taking snaps in this game as both coaches attempt to get anemic offenses moving on the field. Low totals such as this one at 40.5/41 points makes it so much easier for a double digit underdog to cover the number. The market has this game as an implied 30-10 Wyoming win and I do not think Wyoming will get more than 27 in this matchup.

Betting on road dogs that have allowed 31 or more points in three straight games and are facing a foe that was defeated by 17 or more points in their last game has earned a highly profitable 60-24 ATS for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

California vs Colorado

3:30 PM EST, October 22, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the California Golden Bears minus the points

Colorado is just 16-36 after two consecutive games rushing the ball for 125 or fewer yards and 19-42 ATS coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnover. Cal head coach Wilcox is 15-5-1 ATS off three consecutive conference games.

From my predictive models we learn that Cal is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 101-48-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points in a game. Cal is 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when gaining 400 or more total yards as well.

Arizona vs Cleveland

Week 6

4:05 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points

The sentiment readings are among the widest of ant NFL game over the last five seasons and reflects the betting community’s love affair with the Browns in this matchup. This is a contrarian reading and measure as I had mentioned with Teddy Covers on the Sirius XM Sportsgrid show yesterday. My Twitter application confirms and underscores the wildly bullish exuberance on the Browns and even the Circa Millions has an incredible 1695 entries picking the Browns as one of their 5 picks this week. So, 41% of the total entries in the contest are on the Browns and this rarely works out for the majority when the percentage is even above 25% of the total entries.

Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play and have gained 400 or more yards in at least three straight games has earned a 46-13 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past three seasons the angle has earned an amazing 27-7 ATS record.

From the predictive models, we learn that NFL teams that gain a minimum of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and score ay least 27 points are 468-143-28 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2016. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road and scoring 27 or more points and gaining 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last 5 seasons.

Green Bay vs Chicago

1:00 PM EST, Week 6, October 17, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points

Consider adding no more than a 0.75 unit amount betting the Bears using the money line.

The Bears passing attack has been anemic gaining a league-low 729 yards, but let’s hold a minute before simply assuming the netter pedigree Packers are the automatic winner. Teams that have gained fewer than 750 passing yards over a five-game span and are now installed as a dog have earned a 167-131-9 ATS record over the last five seasons. If our dog is installed as no more than a 7.5 point underdog then the record has been 88-58-4 ATS over the last three seasons. Moreover, if filter dogs in a divisional matchup are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons.

The Bears showed they can still gain on the ground even with Montgomery sidelined, running for 143 yards against Las Vegas. Rookie Khalil Herbert rushed for 75 on 18 carries, while Williams had 64 yards. So, if Montgomery and/or Damien Williams (Covid-19 list Thursday) will be a major addition. I still like this bet quite a bit with just Herbert as the lead running back. Moreover, the Packers will without three 2020 Pro Bowl players in left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. I do believe Chicago was significant matchup advantages going up against their replacements.

The Bears are 25-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points over the last 30 seasons. Packers are a money-burning 3-13 ATS in road games and riding the crest of a four or more-game win streak. The Bears are the bet.

Kansas City vs Washington

1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points

Betting against any team that is coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by three or more and in a matchup of teams, whose defenses force 1.25 or fewer opponent turnovers per game has earned a 31-10 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The Chiefs committed 4 turnovers in their humiliating home loss to the Buffalo Bills and their defense has not forced an opponent turnover in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have many problems on both sides of the ball and injuries are making those problems very difficult, if not impossible to solve. Both Washington and KC have gotten just four turnovers from their opponents this season.

Head coach Reid is just 11-23 ATS after failing to cover the number in two of their last three games.

Bet the Washington Football Team as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Mississippi vs Tennessee

7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Tennessee plus the points

I’ll get right under the hood of this money-making machine NCAAF Betting angle. Betting on any team in a game lined between 3.5 points on either side of pick, and is facing a decent team outscoring their opponents by an average of 7 or more PPG and are coming off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points in two consecutive games has earned a 44-14-2 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons.

Here is a second betting angle that has produced 80% winning bets on a 31-8 ATS record spanning the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on two consecutive wins of 10 or more points over conference foes and in a matchup of winning programs sporting win percentages between 60 and 85% for the season.

From my predictive models, Tennessee is expected to score 27 or more points and win the turnover battle. In past home games, Tennessee is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections.

Bet Tennessee as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

Iowa State vs Kansas State

7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on Kansas State plus the points

I will be sprinkling the money line on this bet. So, bet a 4% amount taking the points and then add no more than 0.75 amount using the money line.

From my predictive models, K-State is projected to contain ISU to fewer than 150 rushing yards and win the turnover battle. In past home games, K-State is 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections. When installed as a home dog, K-State is 5-1 SU and ATS over the past five seasons meeting or exceeded this pair or performance measures.

ISU head coach Campbell is 0-7 ATS coming off three games gaining 450 or more-total yards in each one. K-State is 22-6-1 ATS after two consecutive games in which they failed to gain more than 125 rushing yards.

Bet K-State as a 4% Best bet and add no more than a 0.75 bet amount using the money line.

Rutgers vs Northwestern

Noon EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on Northwestern plus the points

Betting homme underdogs that are facing an opponent that has allowed 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last two games has earned an outstanding 50-24-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Drilling down a bit further, we learn that when the matchup is between same conference foes, the record improves to 43-20 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Rutgers lost a tough-fought game 20-13 loss at Michigan on Sept. 25 but then followed that with horrid showings at home by dropping a 52-13 decision to Ohio State and a 31-13 setback to Michigan State. Rutgers is not playing well on both sides of the ball, and especially in the secondary where they allowed 588 total yards including TD catches of 63 and 65-yards and a 94-yard TD run to MSU.

Northwestern has played poorly as well, but have not made anywhere close to the number of mental mistakes that Rutgers has made. Bet Northwestern plus the points.

Clemson vs Syracuse

7:00 PM EST, October 15, 2021

4% Best Bet on Clemson minus the points

The current line of -13.5 and 44.5 total points implies the market stating the final score will by 29-16 Clemson win. My predictive models also expect Clemson to score at least 31 points. Clemson is 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS when scoring 31 or more points in games played over the last three seasons and 12-3 ATS for 80% in road games and scoring 31 or more points spanning the past five seasons.

Betting on road favorites from 10 to 21.5 points that are facing a host coming off one or more ats wins has earned a 85-39-2 ATS record over the last five seasons for 70% winning bets.

Bet Clemson minus the points, currently -13.5 and good to bet up to an including – 15.5.

No. 1 Alabama vs Texas A&M
8:00 PM EST, October 9, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet on Texas A&M plus the points. Plus, not more than 2-UNIT bet on the money line OR wait till in-game, and if Alabama scores first then get the 2-UNIT money line bet executed. I like the latter choice to wait in-game and see.

Prior to the start of the season, the WestGate had this game lined as A&M installed as a 7.5-point home dog. So, the recent performances of these two teams, especially Alabama, has caused the market to explode in favor of Alabama. The result, though, has been that akin to stock trading, Alabama is now in severely overbought territory, while A&M is a bit over sold. My predictive models are expecting more of a single-digit type of game, but not higher than 14 points.

Betting on any team that is coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing a team that has played in three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored have earned a 38-13 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Plus, defending national champions that are 5-0 in the following season do get overpriced and a result are just 6-11 ATS when installed as a favorite and 2-7 ATS when installed as a a road favorite. A&M is also 23-9 ATS in home games after two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover and Fisher is 9-1 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in the previous game.

Michigan vs Nebraska

7:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Nebraska plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I do believe there is major chance that Nebraska can get the win in this matchup. Betting on a home team using the money line that is coming off a game in which they were leading at the half by at least 24 points and has a defense allowing no more than 17 PPG on the season.

Nebraska head coach Frost is a perfect 6-0 ATS when installed as an underdog and coming off a SU and ATS win. Nebraska is 37-18 ATS facing teams with a turnover margin of +1 or more per game. Michigan is 2-12 ATS off an upset road win.

From the predictive models, Nebraska is 11-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 137-65-4 ATS over the last 20 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points.

South Alabama vs Texas State
7:00 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas State plus the points

Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of October and after failing to the spready by a total of 28 or more points spanning their last three games has earned a quite strong 82-40-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the last 10 football seasons and went 21-7 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons.

Make no mistake about it, Texas State has played a much more difficult schedule than South Alabama has so far this season. SA is a money-burning 14-37 ATS coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover.

Boise State vs No. 10 BYU

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Boise State plus the points

BYU is 5-0 and ranked no. 10 nationally in the latest polls. Week 6 is by far the week that sees the most upsets and surprising ATS covers too. The market builds momentum on these 5-0 teams and then in week 6 and 7 become overvalued OR they are playing a foe that is grossly undervalued. In this matchup it is a combination of the two and we are getting rewarded handsomely to bet on Boise plus the points.

Boise has a bit of revenge on their minds as well after getting dominated 51-17 in a loss to BYU last season. Boise lost at Nevada last week, 41-31, their most points allowed since allowing 51 to BYU in 2020. BYU has learned they have three quarterbacks that can manage the game. Quarterback health will be a determining factor in how high the Cougars can climb this season. Jaren Hall started the first three games before missing two contests with a rib injury. Baylor Romney started against South Florida and Utah State, but he played one half against the Aggies before sitting out the second half with a concussion. Jacob Conover, BYU's third-string quarterback, finished out the game against Utah State, helping to secure the 34-20 victory. Hall is listed as questionable for this game and given that it is a ribs injury, I can’t imagine him being able to throw the ball well.

BYU is just 2-10 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing 58% or higher completions in games played over the last three seasons. BYU is 10-23 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging just 125 or fewer rushing yards-per-game are a highly profitable 59-20-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons and 29-12 ATS over the last three seasons.

Central Michigan vs Ohio University

3:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on CMU minus the points

Ohio University is 2-14 ATS when playing against a team that is no more than one game under 0.500 or not lower than 40% in games played over the last 10 seasons. Ohio is an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home games following a game in which they forced that opponent into no more than one turnover. CMU head coach McElwain is 16-3 ATS when facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 200 or more rushing yards-per-game on the season.

From the predictive side of things, there is a very high probability that CMU will score at least 28 points. In past games when they have scored 28 or more points they have gone on to a 12-2 ATS record over the last three seasons and 83-25 over the last 20 seasons.

Playing on road favorites that are facing a host that has a very poor turnover defense that is averaging fewer than one turnover per game and after 5 straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each of them has earned a 31-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

No. 6 Oklahoma vs No. 21 Texas

Noon EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line

This game is taking place at the famed Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas and hopefully will remain the game called the Red River Rivalry after these teams join the SEC. Texas QB Casey Thompson is a bit of a trader at least perhaps in his family eyes. His brother and father both started at QB for the Sooners, but Casey chose Texas and sat behind Sam Ehlinger for his first three seasons as a Longhorn. He took over the starting job in Week 3 of this season and the offenses has looked monumentally better under his leadership. Including 272 rushing yards in its 32-27 win over TCU last week, Texas has rushed for 1035 yards over its last three games, its most in a three-game span since ripping off 1111 yards from October 15 to November 5, 2011. This is the difference maker in my eyes in this matchup and why I think Texas will not just cover the spread, but win the game.

From the predictive models, Texas will score at least 28 points in this game and are on a 7-1 ATS win streak when playing away from Austin.

Las Vegas vs LA Chargers

8:20 PM EST Monday, October 4, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and are only the fourth team in NFL history to win two of their first three games in overtime. Th Raiders have won the last two road games against the Chargers, but they have not won three straight since 2001. The Chargers are a winning record team through Week 3 for the first time since 2014. Interesting to note that these two teams have squared off on Monday Night Football 10 times with each team winning five. The road team has won five of the last six and the home team has not won since the Chargers won in a 12-6 all-FG game back in 1995.  Enough of the history lesson. Let’s move on to the stuff that matters most.

Betting on any team that is facing an opponent that is averaging 375 or more total yards-per-game and with that team having gained 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games has earned an outstanding 37-12-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and 21-6-1 ATS spanning the last three seasons.

LC head coach Gruden is 0-7 ATS following a win of three or fewer points.

From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS when they have won the turnover battle, having committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the last five seasons.

Seattle vs San Francisco
4:05 PM EST, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points

The betting frenzy continues with the love-affair the public is having betting on the road dog Seahawks. With a line at now SF as a 2.5-point favorite has me going to window aggressively and even will add a small amount of 1% on the money line at -133 or lower. I also suggest betting this game placing 50% of your 4% (4-UNIT) bet amount pre-flop (before the game starts) and then look to add 25% of your 4-Unit bet size if Seattle scores first and scores via any scoring play except a safety. Add the remaining 25% if Seattle has a 10-point lead. These in-game bets are valid for the first half only. So, if SF gets out to a strong start it, you may end up with only the 50% preflop bet.

From the predictive models I have developed over two decades, we learn that the 49ers are 17-3 ATS and 20-0 SU in home games in which they had fewer turnovers than their opponent and scored at least 27 points in games played over the past 10 seasons.

Tennessee vs NY Jets

1:00 PM EST Sunday, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Jets plus the points

I like taking these types of NFL dogs and adding no more than 1-Unit to the money in addition to the 4-UNIT amount wagered with the spread. Over the course of the entire season, these sprinkles will add more profits to your bottom line. 

Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they lost to the turnover battle by two or more has earned a 98-53-1 ATS record over the last five seasons. Drilling down a bit further in to the massive database we learn that betting on underdogs that are facing a struggling defense forcing less than one turnover-per-game and coming off a game with a turnover margin of 3 or worse has earned an incredible 25-5 ATS record for 83.3% winning bets and sprinkle has earned an 19-11 straight-up record over the past five seasons. 

The Jets are 0-3 for the third consecutive season after the team's 26-0 loss against the Broncos. It is the first time ever that the Jets have been 0-3 in three consecutive seasons. These losses were against the best defenses in the NFL, especially Denver. So, now they face a Tennessee defensive unit that has forced just one turnover this season/ That lone take-away occurred in a Week 1 interception by safety Kevin Byrd. My research makes me confident you will see better blocking, fewer mistakes in pass routes, and superior chemistry in the play calling between OC LeFleur and their rookie QB Zach Wilson. 

Arizona State vs UCLA

10:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021

5% 10-UNIT Best bet on ASU plus the points. 

Betting on road teams in game lined with 3.5 points on either side of pick that outgained their previous opponent by more than 125 total yards and facing a host that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned a 72-28-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last ten seasons. 

Saturday's game will feature two potent rushing offenses that are fueled by their running quarterbacks. UCLA has gained 200 or more rushing yards in seven of its last 10 games and has held the advantage in the run game in 10 consecutive games. Arizona State is at 211.5 rushing yards per game this season, second best in the conference, while averaging 3.8 rushing touchdowns in each contest. The biggest difference between these two similar teams is the significantly weaker secondary of UCLA. They are getting scorched for 331 passing YPG, which ranks fifth worst in the nation. Jayden Daniels has increased his completion percentage from 58.3 last season to 72.6 this season, which is the third-largest improvement at +14.3 percent in the FBS with a minimum of 75 attempts each year. 

Bet ASU plus the points as a 5% 10-UNIT Best Bet

Mississippi vs Alabama

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021

4% Best Bet on Mississippi plus the points and a 1% amount on the money line

After Ole Miss won in back-to-back season of 2014 and 2015, Alabama has won five consecutive games in this SEC series, outscoring the Rebels 298-132. Since 2013, the Crimson Tide are 54-2 in Tuscaloosa. The two losses came against No. 1 LSU 46-41 in 2019, the other was to No. 15 Ole Miss 43-37in 2015. After the 2015 loss in Week 3, the Crimson Tide went on to win the National Championship over Clemson capping off a 12-game win streak. 

The Rebels top the nation with 635.3 yards of offense per game, are fourth with 7.65 per play and slot fourth in rushing offense at 298.7 per contest. They have committed just two turnovers.

QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, throwing for 997 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception. He has rushed for five scores. He also passed for 365 yards and two TDs in last season’s 63-48 loss and having that experience is invaluable knowing too, that he will be facing a Crimson Tide defensive unit that has regressed significantly from previous seasons. 

Florida gashed the Tide for 245 rushing yards on 43 rushing plays. The Florida defense did not even gain100 rushing yards tallying just 91 yards on 28 carries against the Florida defense. I believe Mississippi is superior on both sides of the ball comparted to Florida and is why I think the upset has very real potential Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa. 

Oklahoma vs Kansas State

3:30 PM EST, October 1, 2021

4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on Oklahoma minus the points

Betting on road teams with an elite defensive team allowing 8 or fewer first-half-points per game and coming off a hard-fought win of 6 or fewer points has earned a highly profitable 30-7-1 ATS record good for 81% wining bets. Drilling down a bit further to include teams in the situation installed as a road favorite and the results improve to a remarkable 23-3-1 ATS for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

From the predictive models, Oklahoma will outgain Kansas State by at least two or more-YPPL and have earned a highly profitable 10-3 SATS the last 3 seasons and 92-29 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 

Michigan vs Wisconsin

Noon EST PM EST, October 1, 2021

4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points

Michigan is off to a 4-0 start to their season and will look to make it five straight with a win for the first time in 20 seasons when they visit the Badgers in Madison. This is also the first road game for the Wolverines, who have lost the last 5 meetings in Madison.

The Badgers failed to appear in the AP-25 top rankings after a 41-13 loss Saturday to 9th ranked Notre Dame. The score was quite misleading though, as the Badgers made far too many mistakes and turnovers including TWO pick-6 and special teams TDs in the 4th quartter. They had a 13-10 lead in the 4th stanza before completely imploding. They are an incredibly good defensive team and especially at stopping the run. They held ND to just 9 yards rushing and are allowing 23 RYPG over their first three games. 

Michigan is averaging 350 RYP and 47 PPG in their four games but struggled in their conference opener against Rutgers. Despite leading 20-3 at the half, they had just 2 FD in the second half and held on for 20-13 win and were ‘out-statted’ in the box score too. I see Wisconsin dominating both sides of the line-of-scrimmage and winning this game potential in cruise-control fashion. 

From my predictive models, Wisconsin is expected to outgain Michigan by 150 to 200 total yards and in past games when they have achieved this level of performance, they have earned a 28-7 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

Virginia vs Miami (Fla)

7:30 PM EST, September 30, 2021

5% or 10-UNIT  Best bet on UVA plus the points

The line opened with Miami favored by 3.5 points and early bettor action has moved the market to Miami -3. Both teams are 2-2 SU on the season and this is a pivotable game for both programs. Miami QB D’Eriq King is listed as questionable and even if he does play is not likely to be even close to 80% full strength. The reason this big bet is being released so early in the week is that the line is likely to move closer to pick-em than say 4.5 points. 

UVA head coach Mendenhall is 20-7-1 ATS in his coaching career coming off a back-to-nack games losing the turnover battle. Miami head coach Diaz is a money-losing 1-8 ATS off of a home win. 

Betting on road teams that are coming off a game forcing zero turnovers and now facing an opponent that is coming off four consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover has earned a highly profitable 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. 55% of the winning bets covered the spread by at least 7 points. 

Supporting the SU win by UVA is a money line situational angle that has earned a 20-14 record for 60% winning bets that have averaged a +180 wager. Bet on road teams that are coming off back-to-back games allowing 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt and taking on a host that allowed 5.5 passing yards-per-attempt in their last game. I state confidently that UVA will win this game outright even if Miami’s King starts and even greater margin if he does not. 

Philadelphia vs Dallas

8:20 PM EST Monday, September 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points

Dallas is 40-19 ATS coming off a game in which they allowed 300 or more passing yards; 36-18 ATS in home games coming off a game in which they outgained 75 or more rushing yards. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 23-8-1 ATS after a two game road trip; 26-9 ATS in home gamers off of a road win.

From the predictive models and machine learning applications I fully expect Dallas to score at least 28 points. In past games, in which they scored 28 or more points in a home game facing a divisional foe, they are 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets. Plus, they are an incredible 42-9 ATS in home games when scoring 28 or more points and gaining more rushing yards than their divisional opponent.

LA Chargers vs Kansas City

1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 26, 2021

4% Best Bet on Kansas City minus the points

The Chargers lost at home to the Cowboys in Week 2. It marked their 16th loss of 7 or fewer points since the 2019 season, most in the NFL. They had 12 costly drive stopping penalties costing them 99 yards marking the most mistakes and penalty yards since Week 11 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens 36-35 despite leading by 11 through three quarters. It marked the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs blew a double-digit lead entering the fourth stanza. Now, 29-1 with a double-digit lead entering the fourth. 

Stylistically, Brandon Staley's Chargers defense has shown similarities to his 2020 Rams defense through two weeks. The Chargers has shown two-high safeties pre-snap on a league-high 85% of their defensive snaps, and they've had six or fewer defenders in the box 67% of the time (fourth). It's a defense built around limiting explosive passing plays, so Chiefs will look to get the ground game well established early on knowing they allowed 6.4 YPR to the Cowboys ground attack.  The Rams defense, by the way, allowed just 41 gains of 20-plus yards last season (12 fewer than any other defense).

The Chiefs will be a major test of that defensive philosophy given their 233 pass plays of 20 or more yards since Mahomes took over in 2018 rank second in the league to only Tampa Bay’s 253 pass plays. The Chargers defense, like all other defenses that face the Chiefs, will choose between a double-team of Hill or Kelce. The Ravens doubled Hill and gave up seven catches for 109 yards to Kelce. 

The Chargers are 1-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game spanning the past three seasons. 

From the predictive side of things, The Chiefs are expected to score at least 28 points in this game and are 17-8 ATS for 678% winning bets in games played over the past 5 seasons when scoring 28+ points. 

Arizona vs Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2021

4% Best Bet on Jacksonville plus the points and add a small sprinkle using the money line.

Kyler Murray is the first QB in NFL history to have at least three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in each of his first two games of a season. Trevor Lawrence's 84 pass attempts are the fourth most by any QB in the Super Bowl era over his first two career games, behind Joe Burrow (97), Kyler Murray (94) and Mike Glennon (86). Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 350 or more yards in 15 straight games and is the second-longest streak in NFL history. However, my predictive models show solid expectations that this will be the game that ends that streak. 

Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games by double digits. However, past teams, who have lost 6 straight by double digits, and installed as a 7.5 to 11.5 point underdog has earned an 8-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Further good news for the Jags are that 0-2 home dogs in Week 3 are 10-4 ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021

4% Best bet on the Bengals plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. 

Steelers head coach Tomlin is just 20-38 ATS off of or 2 or more UNDER game results. The Bengals are 62-31 using the money line making 35 units-per-unit bet when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards over the last 30 seasons. In Cincinnati's 20-17 loss to Chicago, the Bengals committed four turnovers with three interceptions and a lost fumble. Cincinnati went the entire 2020 season without committing four or more turnovers in a single game. Note that teams that are coming off a game with 4 or 5 turnovers and now facing an opponent that they previously defeated are 18-12 for 60% ATS over the last three seasons and when installed as a dog, has earned a 10-4 ATS mark for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Colorado State vs Iowa
3:30 PM EST, September 25, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet on Colorado State

CSU is coming off a double digit road win and are 25-11 ATS in the next game. CSU head coach Addazio is 14-3 ATS in road games facing a non-conference foe and 17-6 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. He is also 12-4 ATS as a road dog facing a winning record program.

Is Iowa the 5th best team in the nation and are they better than 6th-ranked Penn State? My answer is positively not! Iowa and Colorado State are meeting for the first time ever. Iowa beat Kent State at home last week, 30-7. The Hawkeyes have held opponents to 21 or fewer points in 10 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS. The last time Iowa had a longer streak was 11 games between 1959 and 1960.  Colorado State earned its first win of the season last week at Toledo, 22-6. You may remember I had Toledo +17-point underdog, who had Notre Dame on the ropes before losing by just 2-points. The Rams did not allow a touchdown in their win over Toledo, which was the first time since 2016 against Fresno State.

Trey McBride leads the Rams in receptions (30) and receiving yards (339). McBride has been responsible for 46.9 percent of the Rams' receptions this season. I believe you will see a much more balanced offensive attack from the Rams because Iowa is going to bracket McBride in underneath and over the top routes.

Dallas vs LA Chargers

4:25 PM EST, September 19, 2021

5% Best Bet on the Chargers

I have never given out a 10-unit play and my 5% and 5-UNIT best bets have always been my top-rated strongest best bets for more than a decade.   

The Dallas offensive line will get a boost now that guard Zack Martin, who missed the season opener on the Covid-19 list, is available. However, that is more than offset by the loss of tackle La’el Collins to a five-game suspension for a violation of the N.F.L.’s substance-abuse policy. Couple Dallas’s offensive line reshuffling with the still-developing defense that is extremely weak in the back end going against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and it looks as though the Cowboys will not pass this test this afternoon.

Putting up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys' Week 1 loss, Dak Prescott showed that he wasn’t going to ease his way back from last season’s gruesome ankle injury while nursing a significantly bruised shoulder muscle he strained in training camp. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott served mostly as a blocker against Tampa Bay’s defense and the same role be repeated in this matchup.

Dallas is 4-14 ATS off a game in which their QB had 50 passing attempts.

From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are expected to score 27 or more points, force Dallas to have 2 or more turnovers, and have an edge in time-of-possession. In past Charger games over the last 10 season, they are 10-1 ATS over the last 7 seasons!

San Francisco vs Philadelphia  

1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points

Overview
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts diced up the Falcons’ dysfunctional defense, throwing for three touchdowns and 265 yards, while escaping with only one sack. News flash: The 49ers are not the Falcons in any whatsoever. In a Week 1 win over Detroit, the San Francisco defense again looked like the throttling unit of 2019, sacking Jared Goff three times and pressuring him into an interception that was returned for a TD. San Francisco’s starting running back, Raheem Mostert, had season-ending knee surgery, but his replacement, Elijah Mitchell, played well and should continue to do so and is highly recommended for your Daily Fantasy teams.

A matchup that the 49ers have had time to prepare for is the Eagkes defensive front, specificallt Fletcher Cox and Hargrave, who has been underrated fo the past several seasons. Last week Hargrave showed that he is one of the best interior pass rushers winning 48% of all rushes on the QB including double teams. The 49er OL allowed just one pressure last week so, 49ers will be prepared to minimize their impact.

The Numbers

Betting on road teams that are facing a host who allowed 24 or more PPG last season and is coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points has earned a 32-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 NFL seasons. Over the last 10 season, this angle has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winning bets.

From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are expected to score at least 28 points. NFL road teams since 2017 that have scored 28 or more points are a solid 124-39 ATS and the 49ers in this role are 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.

Buffalo vs Miami
1:00 PM EST, September 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on Miami getting the points 

I like the idea of adding a sprinkle, no more than 1.0 units, on the money line.

Lurking in the Dolphins secondary will be cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the N.F.L. in interceptions with 10 thefts last season. It was Howard’s forced fumble and recovery in the fourth quarter against the Patriots that broke the game open for the Dolphins’ Week 1 win. After watching Josh Allen absorb three sacks and eight other hits from the Steelers defense last week, Coach Sean McDermott will certainly adjust the protection to keep his franchise quarterback upright and that will be a very tough assignment against the Dolphins defensive front seven.

Bet on home teams off of a win over a divisional foe and in a matchup of two teams that had winning records last season has earned a 42-12-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 9-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

LA Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

1:00 PM EST, September 19, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Colts and take the points

Betting on underdogs that were solid passing teams last season averaging 250 or more PYPG and are coming off a game where they defense was diced up for more than 7 yards per pass attempt has earned a 30-5 ATS 86% record over the last 10 seasons.

From the predictive models, the Colts are expected to score 28 or more points and have at least 125 rushing yards. NFL teams that have met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 310-56 ATS record over the last five seasons and the Colts dressed in this role are 9-1 ATS.

Auburn vs Penn State

7:30 PM EST, September 18, 2021

5% Top-Rated Best Bet on Penn State minus the points

ESPN College Game Day is on the Happy Valley Campus and Auburn will be playing in by far the largest stadium (111K) in program history. Making it an even greater home field advantage is the fact that this is a Penn State White Out game, which everyone of the 111K fans will be wearing white. There be an almost invisible sliver in the third deck of Auburn fans. My WagerTalk colleague Ralph Michaels makes PSU the greatest home field advantage giving them 6.5 points in Prime Time Night Games.

SEC teams installed as 7 or fewer-point points are a money-losing 9-18 ATS for 33% wins facing a Big Ten foe. The Lions are roaring and is a team that is only going to get better as the season goes on. James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he was hired by PSU and knows the SEC conference first-hand. While at Vanderbilt, he went 8-3-1 ATS in home games including a defeat of Auburn. The best fact of all is that Franklin despite all of the negative media attention on him and hi program last season is on a 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS run coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. He is also 40-16 ATS  off a win and 14-3 ATS off a game scoring 37 or more points.

From the predictive side of things, my machine learning models show a very high probability that PSU will score 31 or more points and will gain 450 or more offensive yards. PSU in home games, scoring 28 or more yards and gaining 450 or more total yards is 25-4 ATS for 86.2% ATS wins.

Ohio University vs Louisiana Lafayette        

Thursday, 9/16/2021 9:45 PM

4% Best Bet on LL Rajin Cajuns minus the points

Betting on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that is a team allowing 28 to 34 PPG and hosting a guest that is averaging 16 to 21 PPG has earned a 30-8 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.

From the predictive models the Padres are a highly profitable 92-37 in road games when their starter has completed more than 6 innings of work and they have scored multiple runs in 2 or more innings spanning the last five seasons.

Baltimore vs Las Vegas

Week 1 8:15 PM EST, Monday, September 13, 2021

4% best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points

A few quick-hitters. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a solid 23-11 ATS in games with a total of 46 or more points. He is 18-7 ATS in the first two weeks of the regular season. 

From the predictive models, Baltimore is expected to gain well over 125 rushing yards and would not be at all surprised if they gained over 200 tonight. Baltimore is 86-27-1 ATS in games gaining at least 125 rushing yards. They are 9-1 ATS over the last three seasons in games they averaged 5.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. Las Vegas is 0-7 ATS over the last three seasons in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards. 

Bet Baltimore for a 4-Unit Best Bet

Notre Dame vs Florida State

7:30 PM EST, Sunday, September 5, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet Florida State plus the points

FSU head coach Mike Norvell has 10 returning starters on offense including the QB red shirt sophomore transfer Jordan Travis. He will have plenty of targets this season including graduate transfer Andrew Parchman, who spent the last two years in Kansas. He made 20 starts for Kansas tallying 1,028 receiving yards on 89 catches and 9 TDs. Look for him to make key catches in this game, especially on 2nd and 3rd downs to keep the chains moving.

Ironically, Guard Dillon Gibbons transferred from Notre Dame and you can bet this 6-5 321 lb lineman will want to to show what his former team could have had. Overall, the FSU L is much better than last year’s edition because they have played together in at least one seasons and have solid chemistry across the line too.

Betting on under dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first four weeks of the season that return at least 8 starters including the QB and had struggles on defense allowing 425 or more YPG in the previous season has earned a highly profitable 59-24-1 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 21-7-1 for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 using the money line, whose defense struggled last season allowing 5.8 or more yards-per-play and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning this season has earned an amazing 28-20 SU record, averaging a +210 money line bet and making the $100 bettor a $3,950 profit over the last 10 seasons. Over the last three seasons this angle has produced a 9-8 record, BUT has made $1500 for the $100 bettor.

Bet FSU plus the points as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Boise State vs UCF

Week 1 7:00 PM EST, Thursday, September 2 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Boise State plus the points

On the gridiron, I like to bet these underdogs as a combination bet that consists of 80 to 90% of your normal bet size placed on the line and the remaining 10-20% bet using the money line. So, for this game and if you are $100 bettor for a 4-Unit bet, place $85.00 on the line and $15.00 using the money line. Remember though, this is a recommended strategy, and you always have the option to simply bet the game getting the points.

This is going to be a great game to watch that will have several scoring runs by both teams, who have first-year head coaches. UCF has former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn, who inherits a terrific offense that averaged 568 yards and 42 PPG. New head BSU head coach is Andy Avalos, who was the defensive coordinator for Oregon and has nine defensive returning starters on one of the best defenses in the Mountain West Conference.

Hank Bachmeier was named the starting QB last week and is a 3-year junior signal caller that is vastly underrated. He has been injured in past seasons preventing him from taking his game to those next levels. He has played in only 13-games over the past two seasons. In his first start of his college career he threw for 407 yards in a win against Florida State on August 31, 2019. He has had 6-games completing over 65% of his passes and three of those were over 70%. His favorite target, senior Khalil Shakir, has caught 131 balls for 1,761 yards, and 13 TDs. Bachmeier will have far more weapons this season in WR-X Stefan Cobbs, WR-H CT Thomas, and junior transfer Davis Koetter.

UCF is just 4-13 ATS in games played over the last three seasons with a total of 65 or more points. From the predictive models there is a very high probability that BSU will score 28 or more points. In past games in which they have scored 28 or more points, they are 10-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 70% ATS over the last 30 seasons spanning 210 games.

Bet Boise State as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Baltimore vs Washington

6:00 PM EST, Saturday, August 28, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points

This is the first of many 4-Unit Best Bets I will be releasing for the NFL preseason games and MLB action for Saturday. So, please check back for those new releases. All of the best bets will be posted no later than 1:00 EST, Saturday and 10:00 AM EST, Sunday. 

Let’s get right into the analytics and situational tendencies for this matchup. Underdogs that won their previous NFL preseason game by 6 or fewer points have earned a 27-7 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five preseasons. Underdogs that scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last two preseason games have earned a 135-80 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last 15 preseasons.

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, the Football Team is an outstanding and highly profitable 30-9 ATS for 77% winning bets when they have held an opponent to 5.0 or fewer yards per pass attempt.

NY Giants vs Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, August 22, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Giants plus the points

Consider making a combination bet with this underdog by placing 80% of your 4-Unit amount on the line and the remaining 20% using the money line. Over the course of the NFL season, these strategies will add more profit and increase the season-long ROI.

4-UNIT Best Bet on Minnesota using the money line

Betting on road teams in the NFLX that are coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points and are facing a host that is coming off a double-digit win has earned an incredible 44-10-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the last 25 NFL preseasons.

From the all-knowing and highly intelligent database, we learn that Cleveland is just 3-15 ATS after a preseason double-digit win and that the NY Giants are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring in single-digits in their previous game spanning the last 25 preseasons.

Edmonton vs British Columbia

10:00 EST, August 19, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Edmonton taking the points.

Tried and true betting angle right here. Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a win over a divisional rival in the first four weeks of the regular season, has earned an outstanding 61-23 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 27 seasons. It is also 7-1 ATS over the five seasons.

BC head coach Campbell is 10-23 ATS as a home favorite in all games he has coached.

Bet Edmonton as a 4-UNIT Best Bet plus the points.

olorado vs San Francisco

9:45 EST, August 13, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Run Line betting Colorado

Betting on road teams of at least +110 in the first game of a series and facing a hot bullpen that has posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower spanning their last five games has produced a 90-75 record, averaging a +155 dog bet and making the $100 bettor a $5100 profit over the last five seasons. 

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, we learn that San Fran is just 2-12 as a home favorite of -150 and greater when the opponent has had 2 or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the last three seasons.

BRITISH COLUMBIA (0-0) at SASKATCHEWAN (0-0)  
Week 1 9:30 PM EST, August 6, 2021

4-UNIT Best bet on Saskatchewan

My predictive models and machine learning applications show a high probability that Saskatchewan will score 28 or more points. Note that they are a perfect 8-0 ATS when they score 28 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. They are also 26-10 ATS when gaining 7.5 to 8-yards-per-play over the last 15 seasons.

Bet Saskatchewan for a 4-UNIT amount.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns

9:00 ET. July 17, 2021

4-Unit Best bet on the Milwaukee Bucks plus the points

I like making these types of underdogs a combination wager comprised of 80% of your normal 4-UNIT bet size on the line and 20% more on the money line. Over the course of a season, the money line bet will outperform the spread-only wager.

From my predictive models, the Bucks are expected to shoot better, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio over the Suns. In past games, in which the Bucks met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a remarkable 106-1 SU and 94-11-2 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last 3 seasons.