Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech
4:00 ET, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Pittsburgh + 4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I take 85% of the amount of my 4% Bet and bet the game using the spread. Then the money line is used to be the remaining 20% amount.

Betting on road teams coming off an ATS win, but lost the game and now playing in a matchup of teams sporting win percentages between 50.1 and 60% on the season has earned a highly profitable 36-9-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons.

G-Tech’s head coach Pastner is a money-burning 7-18-1 ATS when playing their third in a game. 
From the machine learning applications, Pitt is expected to shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc, and/or get a minimum of 40 rebounds, and/or outrebound G-Teach by at least five rebounds. So, any combination of these three parameters has seen Pittsburgh be the winning bet in at least 83% of the games played over the last five seasons.

Nebraska vs Penn State

Bryce-Jordan Center, University Park, PA

3:00 PM EST, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Penn State -11 points

Do not be misled by Penn State’s losing overall and conference record. They have played the toughest strength-of-schedule in the nation and now begin a stretch that could see them win out. If they advanced to the Final-4 of the B-10 Tournament, they could earn a spot in the dance. They have the talent and team chemistry is quite good.

Nebraska has played their worst games on the road this season and ranks 342nd when playing away from Lincoln.  Penn State looks to run and score within ten seconds off of missed shots and rank 31st in this category. Nebraska has been terrible defending an opponent’s fast break off of their missed shots ranking 223rd.

PSU averages 25 3-point shot attempts per game and Nebraska averages 24. Nebraska is 6-22-2 ATS when facing a team averaging 21 or more 3-point shot attempts in games played after the 15th game of the season and spanning the last three seasons. PSU is 70-32 ATS when facing teams, who are averaging at least 21 3-points shot attempts, after the 15th game of the seasons spanning the last ten seasons.

From the machine learning applications, PSU is 14-2 ATS for 88% winning bets when scoring 75 to 81 points and making at least 78% of their free-throw attempts in games played over the last two seasons.

No 3. Michigan vs No 21 Wisconsin

Kohl Center, Madison, WI

1:00 PM EST, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Michigan -1 point.

The money line bet may be a solid alternative to the -1 point, but only if it is priced at -114 or lower. Anything above -115 has minimal value and is too expensive and increases the risk amount too.

I was surprised when this line opened with Wisconsin as a -2-point home favorite, but that lasted about 30 minutes as money did come in on Michigan. A few books have Michigan priced as -1.5 point road favorites and this is the level where the market is balanced.

The reason I was surprised by the opening line is that Michigan ranks 1st in overall positive team momentum while Wisconsin has been inconsistent and ranks 290th in momentum. Wisconsin has played their best and most efficient games at home, so that may be a supportive reason for the opening line. Still, Michigan is the better team right now, but this will be a grinding and defensive-minded game.

The big difference between these two teams is that Michigan has a more efficient offense than Wisconsin. Michigan ranks 6th nationally with a 58.1% 2-point shooting percentage and ranks 5th making 50.9% of all shot attempts. Overall, Michigan ranks 5th with a 57.6% effective FG percentage. By comparison, Wisconsin ranks 155th with a 50.5% effective FG percentage, 235th with a 48.1% 2-point FG percentage, and 196th with an overall 43.2% shooting percentage.

Both defenses are among the best in the nation, but Michigan has a modest edge at this end of the court as well. Michigan is 7-0 ATS facing strong defensive teams allowing 42% or lower opponent shooting in games played this season.

Oklahoma State vs No 23 Kansas

Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

9:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on Oklahoma State +4.5-points and sprinkle a bit more using the money line.

Kansas has uncharacteristically struggled against teams with a winning record of 60% and higher sporting a horrible 0-6 ATS record this season. OSU has a major advantage in terms of their positive recent play and the momentum they carry into this game. They have won 3-of-4 and 6-of-8 games and covered the spread at the same clip. In their last game, they shot a terrible 35.3% against then-No 5 Texas and still scored 75 points in their 75-67 win Saturday. They defeated Kansas earlier this year at home 75-70 as a 3.5-point underdog.

OSU has been a far more consistent team ranking 22nd nationally and Kansas’s root problem is consistency in which they rank 322nd. So, OSU is more consistent and is playing some of their best basketball of the season. When I see strong momentum and consistency levels I immediately target that team as a potential betting opportunity.

Kansas has had problems with their bench play and contributions. Their most recent 91-79 loss at West Virginia saw all five starters score in double-digits, but the bench scored just four points. OSU has seven players averaging at least 20 minutes and that depth will serve them well in their attempt to sweep Kansas in the season series. 

Golden State vs San Antonio

AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX

8:30 PM EST, February 8, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on the San Antonio Spurs

Betting a team playing between their fifth and 41st game of the season with a team that has lost to the spread by an average of 12 to 25 points over their last four games and now installed as an underdog has earned a 161-94-6 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2000.

Betting on favorites off an upset win installed as an underdog and has won 51 to 60% of their games in the current season and facing an opponmen that has a winning record on their season has earned a 40-16-1 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications we learn that San Antonio is 74-23 SU and 66-29-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points and committing 12 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last five seasons.

Austin Peay at Tennessee-Martinsville

7:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on Tennessee-Martinsville +12.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line. 

The machine learning applications predict that this game will be much closer than the 11.5 point betting line indicates. Both of these teams play at the lower-end of the pace-of-play stats with Austin Peay ranking 299th and UT-Martin ranking 285th in possessions-per-forty-minutes. That suggests that Auston Peay will not run away from UT-Martin and the game will remain within single digits. Plus, UT-Martin has played their best games at home this season and this is a huge advantage for them.

Needless to state, UT-Martin shoots horribly poor form the field and rank 351st in overall field goal percentage. However, Austin Peay’s defense can make any struggling offense resemble a Gonzaga unit. Austin Peay ranks 348th in defensive field goal percentage. UT-Martin is capable of shooting better than 45% from the field and if they do just might pull off the big-time upset win. 

Super Bowl LV
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL

6:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 points and a little sprinkle on the money line too. 

The KC offense is one of the best anyone has seen in at least the last decade, but when you break down the game film, they are a two dimensional one. They have TE Kelce and WR Hill and they complement one another perfectly. If a defense looks to take away the post routes to Hill, then Mahomes will throw underneath to Kelce and vice-versa. The Bucs defense, especially the linebackers are some of the best and quickest in the NFL. That unit will make things far more difficult for Mahomes in this matchup. 

BUCS DEFENSE VS CHIEFS DEFENSE
In the first game, the Bucs were somewhat depleted on defense and had to reduce the amount they normally blitz to just 16% of plays from a season-to-date average of 39%, which is one of the highest in the NFL. The defense forced 73 QB hurries ranking third-best, 71 QB knock-downs ranking third, and recorded 48 sacks tied for third. They ranked second behind the Pittsburgh Steelers recording 192 QB pressures. Yes, I know it is Mahomes and he has tremendous athleticism and still has a high passer rating even when pressured, but this is the best defense in the NFL and no other defense has played at this level all season.

By comparison, the Chiefs defense is somewhat pedestrian and ranks in the middle third of many defensive performance measures. They rank ninth with a 35.7% blitz percentage but going up against the best offensive line in the NFL that is 100% healthy too. KC defense ranks 15th with 55 QB hurries and 19th with just 32 sacks on the season. Plus, the Tampa Bay OL has allowed a sack on just 3.3% of all plays during the regular season. Offensively, these two teams are near equaled overall, but the largest difference is that the Bucs defense is vastly better than the Chiefs.

Where the Chiefs defense will be most vulnerable is on second downs. The Bucs run the ball a high percentage of the time on first downs and getting three to five yards then sets up the play-action pass play. Brady is one of the all-time greats with the fake to the running back that freezes even the best All-Pro linebackers. For the season, he has thrown 110 passes for 1,119 passing yards out of the play-action set. Brady through over the top with great success against New Orleans and Green Bay and it will be highly effective in this matchup too.

The Chiefs defense ranks 20th in the NFL allowing 5.5 yards-per-play, which also matches the league average.

The Bucs are 8-1 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 5.65 or more yards-per-play on the season. The Chiefs rank 6th gaining 6.3 yards-per-play this season, but the

Bucs are a perfect 6-0 ATS facing excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play this season.

The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in games played with a total ranging between 40 and 49.5 points this season. 

A HIGHLY PROFITABLE BETTING SYSTEM 
Betting on home underdogs that are hosting a team that is outgaining their opponents by 70 or more passing yards-per-game and are coming off a game in which their defense allowed 5.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt has earned a 97-50-6 ATS record for 66% winning bets since 1989. When in the playoffs and Super Bowls, the home/neutral dog is 6-2 ATS for 75% winning bets and 5-3 SU.

FROM THE MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATIONS
The Tampa Bay offense is projected to post a 14.5 or lower yards-per-point ratio and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Chiefs. In Super Bowls, teams that met this pair of performance measures has earned an incredible 9-3 ATS record for 75% winning bets and 10-2 SU. Further, Tampa Bay is projected to have the same or fewer turnovers and score 27 or more points. In Super Bowls, teams that have mwet or exceeded these measures has gone on to a 9-3 SDU record and 8-4 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets.

MY SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
Always be careful to construct a risk neutral set of prop bets. Many times people bet props that match the needed outcome for the team they bet on and get too lopsided with too much money bet in total. Also, a prop bet should be about 10% of your normal game bet size. So, if you bet $100 on the game, the props should be in the $10 range. This is not a game to try and ‘go for it’ so please do not do that. I am using prices from the MGM Sportsbook.

Bet the Bucs -10.5 points +650
R.Jones +1400 will score the first touchdown
Any Bucs defensive player will score the first TD +4000
Any Bucs defensive player scores a TD any at any time. +550
Super Bowl MVP Running back +800
Super Bowl MVP defensive player +750
OVER 1st QTR 10.5 points -105
Harrison Butker and Ryan Succop each to make 1 or more FG -225
Tom Brady rushing yards 0.5 yards OVER +145. (That makes me laugh every time I have talked about it)
Tyreek Hill to record 80+ receiving yards and score 1+ TD’s  +125
Bucs win and Tomy Brady throws for 300+ yards. +325
Patrick Mahomes to record 250+ passing yards, Tyreek Hill to record 80+ receiving yards, and Leanoard Fournetteto to record 80+ rushing yards. 
Will either team score 3 times in a row? NO +175

Memphis vs New Orleans

9:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Memphis Grillies +1.5 points.

Only sprinkle the money line if the spread hits 3.5-points.

Let’s start with a proven betting system that has earned a 100-55-1 ATS record good for 64.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. The system requirements are to be on road teams in a game lined within three points on either side of pick-em and facing a host that is allowing at least 103 PPG and coming off a win by three or fewer points.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Memphis is 97-47 SU and 103-36-5 ATS in road games in which they scored at least 105 points and shot 47% or better from the field in games played over the last ten seasons.

Brooklyn Nets vs Philadelphia 76ers

8:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers

This matchup could be a preview of the Eastern Conference finals later this season. However, the Nets will be without Kevin Durant. In a game last night that the Nets eventually lost 123-117 to the Toronto Raptors, Durant was held out at the start of the game due to coronavirus contact tracing. Someone he was in contact with earlier in the day had an inconclusive COVID-19 test.

Durant entered the game in the first quarter before being pulled in the third for the rest of the game due to health and safety protocols after his colleague's test came back positive.

I am not making this bet because Durant is not playing, and who knows, he still might be cleared to play. It is rumored that he did not travel with the team last night. 

Betting on home teams that are revenging a double-digit road loss and are coming off a dismal game losing by 15 or more points as a favorite has earned a highly profitable 71-41-2 ATS record for 63.4% winning bets over twenty seasons. Plus, 13-6 ATS if the game is a matchup of divisional foes. 

From the machine learning applications we learn that the 76ers are 49-7 SU and 39-16-1 ATS for 71% winning bets in home games, scoring 111 or more points, and committing 14 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last five seasons. 

Washington vs Oregon

4:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Washington +13.5 points

Let’s start with a proven betting system that has earned a 47-18-2 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last twenty seasons. The system requirements are to bet on road dogs with a win percentage of 20% or lower on the season and facing a host that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and has gone OVER the total by 30 or more points spanning theie last five games. 

Oregon is a money-burning 5-18-1 ATS in a home game and coming off two comsecutive home losses. Further, Oregon guard Chris Duarte is downgraded to OUT for this game with an ankle injury. 

Bet Washington as a 4% Best Bet.

No 19 Wisconsin vs No 12 Illinois

2:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Illinois -4.5 points

No 19 Wisconsin vs No 12 Illinois

2:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Illinois -4.5 points

The Big-Ten Conference is head and should the best conference in the nation and where the road team has an enormous challenge to get a win. Home team dominance has endured in the Big Ten for the past three seasons and it reflects the remarkable depth of the conference that may send nine and possibly ten teams to the Dance.

Wisconsin has been largely inconsistent on the season and has played their worst games on the road. Illinois has been a far more consistent team and has played their best at home this season. Illinois ranks 12th nationally with a 56.6% effective field goal percentage and 9th making 50.1% of all shot attempts. What is remarkable about Illinois is that they do not take many 3-point shots ranking 275th, but rank 130th in made- 3-pointers, and 9th making 39.7% of their 3-point shots.

Head coach Underwood is 28-12-1 ATS facing an excellent ball-handling team averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

From the machine learning applications, Illinois is expected to score between 76 and 81 points in this game, and in past games in which they scored within this range has produced an 80-42 ATS result. Wisconsin is 11-28 ATS for 72% winning bets in games in which they allowed 76 to 81 points.

Miami (Ohio) vs Buffalo

5:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Buffalo -7.5-points

This Mid-American matchup features two complete opposite and extreme style of basketball. Starting with pace-of-play metrics, Buffalo plays fast and 10th nationally averaging 75.5 possessions-per-game. Miami (Ohio) ranks 313th averaging a plodding 65 possesions-per-game. Buffalo has ranked consistently between 90 and 105 nationally in my power ratings while Miami (Ohio) is further back in the rankings at 170th and has not been below 150 this season. 

Buffalo has a big advantage when they have the ball. They rank 140th in overall offensive efficiency while Miami (Ohio) ranks 259th in overall defensive efficiency. Turnovers are expected to be below average for Buffalo given that Miami )Ohio) ranks 315th in steals-per-game. 

Buffalo is on an 8-1 ATS run when facing a weak defensive team that is allowing 45% or better shooting in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the predicytive side of things, Buffalo is 16-4 ATS in games played in which they got a minimum of 45 rebounds in games played over the last three seasons. 

Iowa State vs Oklahoma

12:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Oklahoma Sooners -16-points

Here are some quick hitters. Oklahoma is 19-6-1 ATS when facing a team that is allowing 77 or more points-per-game on the season. ISU is a money-burning 2-11 ATS in road games facing a defensive team averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers-per-game on the season. ISU is 4-17 ATS when on the road and installed as an underdog for the fifth consecutive game. Oklahoma is 11-2 ATS in home games with a totasl between 140 and 149.5 in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the ,machine learning applications we learn that Oklahoma is 15-3 ATS when they score 80 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Golden State vs Dallas

7:35 PM EST, February 4, 2021

4% Best Bet on Dallas -3 points

Golden State starts a COVID-19 road trip that will see them play the next four games on the road and have to visit only two cities. Tonight and Saturday night they will play Dallas and then February 8 and 9, they play on back-to-back nights against the Spurs. Doesn’t sound all that equitable for the Warriors.

Dallas is 8-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games in games played over the last three games.

From the machine learning applications we learn that Golden State is 17-207 SU and 37-181-6 ATS for 17% in road games shooting less than 47% from the field and allowing 111 or more points.

No 7 Ohio State vs No 8 Iowa

Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA

7:00 PM EST, February 4, 2021

10-Unit Best Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5 points

Iowa stopped a two-game losing streak with an 84-78 win over Michigan State Tuesday. They have not covered the spread in their last three games, which is a season-high. Prior to this tough 3-game stretch, the betting flows gravitated to Iowa, but now the market has discounted Iowa far too much and today’s game offers a terrific betting opportunity.

Ohio State has caught fire winning six of their last seven games and covered the spread in five of them. Ohio State has largely outperformed expectations and is playing at unsustainable levels. They now take to the road to play the best and most efficient offense in the nation that can overwhelm any opponent at any time.

Iowa ranks no 1 in the nation in ball handling sporting a 2.097 assist-to-turnover ratio and will be facing an Ohio State defense that has posted a below-average 1.135 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 269th nationally. Iowa moves the ball well, especially in the half-court set, and will not be met with a pressing style of defense from Ohio State.  When Iowa moves the ball on offense they become even better at finding the best possible shot in each possession. Iowa looks to get the ball to Garza, of course, but the entire team is focused on getting the shot closest to the rim. Ohio State ranks 201st in allowed dunks, layups, and tip-ins.

Betting on home favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points in a matchup involving two teams that are outscoring their opponents by eight or more points-per-game, and with the home team coming off a game in which they scored 45 or more points has earned a 75-40 ATS record good for 65.5% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons.

Iowa is an outstanding 11-2 ATS in home games facing a team, like Ohio State, who is averaging at least 21 3-point shot attempts in games played over the last two seasons. They are also 12-2 ATS  in games following two consecutive games having 14 or fewer turnovers in each game.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Ohio State is 9-37-2 ATS 80.4% when they have allowed 81 to 87 points and 12-53-2 ATS 81.5% when allowing 81 or more points.

LA Clippers vs Cleveland
8:00 PM EST, February 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the LA Clippers

Betting on road favorites between -5 and -12 pts playing on one day of rest of on back-to-back nights is outscoring their opponents by at least 3 points-per-game (PPG), have scored at least 105 points in three straight games, and is game number eight or more of the season has earned a 130-71-7 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. When the road favorite is playing on B2B nights, they are 31-15-1 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the Clippers are 51-2 SU, and 47-6 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring a minimum of 111 points and making 40% or more of their 3-point shot attempts. 

Milwaukee vs Indiana
7:00 PM EST, February 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks

I had Milwaukee as a 4% Best bet winner in their last game over Portland. The market has discounted the value of the Bucks too much given their recent struggles, but they are entering a stretch of games that they will cover the spread in many of them and starting with this one tonight.

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points, are coming off an ATS win, have a win percentage greater than 50%, but less than 60% on the season, and facing an opponent with a win percentage within the same range has earned an outstanding 77-31-2 ATS for 71.3 % winning bets over the last seven seasons.

From the machine learning applications, Milwaukee is a solid 70-6 SU and 64-11-1 ATS, when they have scored at least 111 points, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio, has earned a highly profitable 85.2% ATS record in games played over the last three seasons. 

ELON vs James Madison
Atlantic Union Bank Center, Harrisonburg, VA

4:00 PM EST, February 3, 2021

8-Unit Best Bet on James Madison -8.5 points

Betting on home teams that are hosting a foe coming off a loss of six or fewer points, has more starters that returned from the previous season than the opponent, and the game taking place in first 15 games of the regular season has earned an outstanding 65-27-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that JMU is 46-24-1 ATS when scoring 75 to 81 points. ELON is a money-burning 30-58-2 ATS when the have failed to score more than 65 points.

No 2 Baylor vs No. 6 Texas
Frank Erwin Center, Auston, TX

7:00 PM EST, February 2, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas +5.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

A few quick Hitters:
Texas is 24-7 ATS in home games facing sharp shooting 3-point teams averaging eight or more made 3-point shots. Baylor is averaging 11 made 3-point shots. Texas is 65-36-2 SATS for 68% winning bets when hosting extremely good teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding their opponents to less than 42% shooting. Baylor is averaging 50.2% shooting and allowing 40.7% opponent shooting.

Texas is an amazing 25-2 SU using the momey line in home games, afdter the fifth game of the regular season, and facing an opponent that is making anaverage of eight 3-point shots

Texas is also a solid 24-9 ATS in home games and have covered just one game among their previous five games.

No 24 Oklahoma vs No 10 Texas Tech

United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
9:00 PM EST, February 1, 2021

8-Unit Best Bet on Oklahoma +7 points

Oklahoma will be looking to end a six-game losing streak to Texas tech and build more momentum opff their upset win against then-No-11 ranked Alabama this past Saturday.

Oklahoma is the better ball-handling team and shoots more efficiently from the field than Texas Tech. Oklahoma ranks 21st nationally with a 1.392 assist-to-turnover ratio cpompared to a much weaker 1.144 ATR ratio for Texas Tech. Oklahoma has earned a 51% effective-field-goal percentage ranking 127th nationally. TT ranks 198th in effective-FG-percentage at 49.3%.

Oklahoma has also improved significantly and has increased the number of assisted-field-golas made over the last three games. 47% of their scoring shots were by assist. TT ranks 6th forcing an opponent to commit a turnover on 22.1% of their possessions. That measure may look good until you note that TT plays at the slowest pace in the Big-12 and that Oklahoma is a terrific ball-handling team averaging just 10.5 turnovers-per-game.

Oklahoma head coach Kruger is 31-12 ASTS for 72% winning bets in games that had a total between 130 and 139.5 for his coaching career.

From the machine learning applications, Oklahoma is 19-5 SU and 21-2-1 ATS for 90.5% winning bets over the past 15 seasons in road games where they scored 77 or more points and held their opponent to less than 45% shooting.

Portland vs Milwaukee

8:00 PM EST, Fenruary 1, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks -10 points.

Betting on favorites facing a host off an upset road win and with both the team and opponent sporting win percentages between 51 and 60% on the season has earned a highly profitable 29-18-1 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

Portland is on an 0-8 ATS streak coming off a road upset win and then installed as an underdog in the following game. 

From the machine learning applications, the Bucks are 42-3 SU and 32-10-3 ATS for 76.2% winning bets in home games spanning the last three seasons. 

Rutgers vs Northwestern
Welsh-Ryan Arena
Evanston, ILL

7:30 PM EST, January 31, 2021

4% Best Bet on Rutgers – 4 points

The edge in this matchup is on the improving Rutgers defense of late. Six games ago, Rutgers was allowing a 54.6% effective field goal percentage based on a 5-game moving average and marking the season worse. Entering this conmtest, the 5-game moving average as improved to a solid 48.1% allowed effective FG% and is markedly better than Northwestern.

Northwestern enters this game with a five game average of 58.7% effective FG% allowed and just off their season low of 60.4% made two games ago.

Rutgers has chosen to slow down their pace of play over the last 14 games from a five-game average of 75 possessions per game to the current and season-low 67.2 possessions-per-game. The slower pace has augmented their offensive efficiencies  and will find it easy to move the ball in thehalf-court set against a NW defense than ranks 328th nationally with a horrible 1.327 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off a home win against a conference foe, sporting a win percentage between 50 and 60% on the season and facing a team with a losing record has earned a solid 110-63-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

Philadelphia vs Indiana
Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

7:00 PM EST, January 31, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 points.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off a 20 or more point win and now facing a host, who scored and allowed 100 or more [points in each of their last three games has earned a 52-24-2 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 1995 and 40-18-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Joel Embiid is listed as questionable and my research and bet is based on him NOT playing tonight.

From the machine learning applications, the 76ers are 59-8 SU and 50-16-1 ATS in road games, scoring 111 or more points, and having the better, more efficient assists-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last three seasons.

Stanford vs Arizona State
Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ

8:00 PM EST, January 30, 2021

10-Unit Best Bet on Arizona State -1.5 points

The ASU offense has been inconsistent over their first 13 games of the season, but in recent games, they are starting to find their way and playing more efficiently. They are 1-11-1 ATS for the season and the market has steadily discounted them in search of a betting numbers equilibrium. However, now the market has them priced very cheap and is offering us a great contrarian bet.

Despite a losing record, ASU has a solid 1.154 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 73rd nationally of the 357 Division-1 basketball programs. Stanford, despite a winning record, is a horrible ball handling team sporting a 0.826 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 255th nationally. Moreover, Stanford is a horrible 3-point shooting team ranking 248th making just 31% on the season.

Stanford is 4-14-1 ATS in road games following a streak where they won four or more of their last six games and are 1-10-1 ATS in road games after winning five or more of their last seven games in games played over the last three seasons. Stanford head coach Haase is a money-burning 10-26-1 ATS in road games facing a host that averages at least 21 3-point shot attempts.

Bet Arizona State -1.5 points. I do not expect the line to move much at all from the current price. If anything, the market make move toward pick-em.

Florida vs No 11 West Virginia
WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, WV
2:00 PM EST, January 30, 2021

8-Unit Upset Alert Best Bet on the Florida Gators and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

Florida has won three straight games since losing 72-69 at Mississippi State  where they shot just 41% from the field. During ths 3-game win streak they have shot 49.1%  in a 75-49 win over Tennessee, 56.9% in a 92-84 win at Georgia, and lastly, 51.9% in a 78-71 win overVanderbilt. Moreover, they are averaging an outstandsing 1.15 points-per-possession.

The reason for their improved shooting is that they have taken far more shots at or near the rim than at any other point of the season. With Florida looking to get to the rim on every possession is going to put immense pressure on the West Virginia defense.

Sophomore Scottie Lewis will return to action, who is averaging 10.9 PPG and will add even more points from close range.

WVU head coach Huggins has not done well when facing SEC popponents. He is a money-burning 4-16 SATS when facing an SEC foe as the coach of WVU.

Penn State vs No 13 Ohio State
Valuer City Arena, Columbus, OH
7:00 PM EST, January 27, 2021
10-Unit  Best Bet on Penn State +8 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line

I believe this line could rise in our favor as the day wears on and led by the public seeing a 13th ranked team playing at home and facing a team with two conference wins and a 5-6 overall record. These stats are extremely misleading for many reasons.

Penn State (PSU) has played the toughest schedule to date in the Big Ten Conference and significantly more difficult schedule than Ohio State (OSU). PSU has faced ACC-member Virginia Tech, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois all on the road, Not that home court has near the advantage this season than in previous ones, but that is a tough road schedule no matter the season.

Ohio State’s remaining schedule includes trips to No 5 Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State. They must then play Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan State in home tilts. So, Ohio State has had the softer schedule and will begin a gauntlet of road and home tests that would be a success if they play even on-game over 0.500.

OSU ranks 6th in the Big Ten averaging 23.2 three-point-attempts-per-game, but are making only an average of 8.0 made-three-point-shots-per-game. PSU is 16-5-1 ATS in road games facing a host that is averaging a minimum of 21 3-point-attempts-per-game in games played over the last three seasons.

Penn State won their previous game at home 81-78 over Northwestern. PSU is a 15-4 ATS following a game scoring 80 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. They are also 13-2-1 ATS following a game in which 155 or more points were scored in games played over the last three seasons. OSU installed as a home favorite and facing an opponent that scored 80 or more points in their previous game is a money-burning 16-32 ATS in games played over the last ten seasons.

PSU enjoys playing at a faster-then-average pace and is 12-3-1 ATS when they had 63 to 70 shot attempts in games played over the last two seasons. PSU is 14-3-1 ATS when scoring 75 or more points in games played over the last two seasons.

Bet Penn State as a 10-Unit top-rated Best Bet.  To have success in sports betting, always remember to be disciplined, and resist the temptation to ‘go-for-it’. Make no mistake about it, the sports betting process is a marathon. Betting the same amounts for your 3,4, and 5% (6,8,10 Unit) bets, every day, will pave the way to highly profitable bottom lines at the end of the season. Thank you for making this purchase and best of luck to us!

Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
NFC Championship Game
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

3:05 PM EST, January 24, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +3-points

The line for this NFC Championship game opened with Green Bay priced as a 3-point home favorite and the public bettor has been largely attracted to bet Green Bay accounting for 71% of the best made as of Wednesday. I fully expect this trend to continue, but the line may not move above 3.5 unless there is new news. I am planning on waiting till Friday to place 50% of my 5% bet size Friday at the market price and then prepare to add 25% more about an hour before game time. The remaining 25% will be used for in-game live betting at a price of +7.5-points. I will be tweeting LIVE in-game bets so make certain you are following me. 

Betting on road teams after week 8 including the playoffs, that make few mistakes averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game (TPG) and have posted four consecutive games committing no more than a single turnover in each game, and now facing an opponent that is also takes great of the football averaging 1.25 TPG has earned a 36-25 SU record and a 37-22-2 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last ten seasons. 

The following results is a subset variation of the previous system and requires us to bet on road teams in game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer TPG and with the host coming off a game in which their defense did not face a turnover. This subset has earned a 41-28 record and 47-20-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 4-2 SU and a perfect 5-0-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8.6 points. 

My opponent-adjusted power ratings have the Packers as the best team in the NFL, Tampa Bay second, then the Buffalo Bills at 4th, and the Chiefs a distant ninth. So, placing a futures bet on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl and a matchup bet that the Bills and Bucs will be the Super Bowl teams is a great opportunity. 

The Bucs have a significant advantage running the ball against the Packers defensive line. The single-most powerful situation for Brady over his entire career has been using play-action pass and having an extra two seconds or more to scan the field and complete high-percentage routes in space. Once the Bucs force the Packers to bring a safety up to the line-of-scrimmage the play-action pass will highly effective and the dominant reason the Bucs win and advance to the Super Bowl. 

From the machine learning applications we learn that the Bucs are 14-7 SU and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when scoring 24 or more points and averaging at least 6.3 yards-per-play.  

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center
Dallas, TX
4% NBA Best Bet on Houston +9 points. 

Betting on road teams that priced as underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points with a losing record on the season and now facing a host that has played six or more games in the past ten days has earned an outstanding 40-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets spanning the last five seasons. 

From the machine learning applications we learn that Houston is a solid 120-21 SU and 117-19-5 ATS for 86% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points in a road game and also had the better assist-to-turnover ratio. 

Philadelphia vs Detroit

8:00 PM EST, January 23, 2021
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers

I have been on the 76ers this season and have not bet against them. In fact, I find them as one of the most under priced NBZA teams of the past five seasons. Now, they take to the road on back-to-back nights to take on the worst team in the NBA, the Detroit Pistons. 

76ers effective filed goal percentage sits at 54.7% ands ranks 11th in the NBA. Detroit ranks 28th in the NBA shooting a dismal 49.7% from the field. They are 30th shooting 2-points at a 47.6% clip and the 76ers vastly better ranking 8th and making 54.8%. 

The 76ers are third-best rebounding team in the league. Detroit is 9-28 ATS when facing elite rebounding teams that out rebound their opponents by an average of three or more boards-per-game in games played over the last three seasons. 

TAMPA BAY VS NEW ORLEANS
Divisional Round
6:40 PM EST, January 17, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +3-points and a sprinkle on the money line if the Bucs are getting at least 3-points.

This is the third time that these divisional rivals will face each other this season. The road teams are 10-11 SU, and 15-8 ATS for 62% winning bets in the NFL playoffs. In the Wild Card Round last week, the Browns and Rams were in this role and both won SU against their divisional rivals. Teams meeting for the third time that have a higher yards-per-play ratio than the opponent are 12-9 SU and 13-8 ATS for 62% winning bets. The Bucs have averaged 6.0 YPPL ranking 7th-best in the NFL and the Saints have avered 5.8 YPPL ranking 11th-best in the NFL.

Betting on road teams in a game in which they and their host are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game and with the host coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 44-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the last five regular and playoff seasons.

The Saints under head coach Sean Payton are 0-6 ATS in home regular season and playoff games spanning the last three seasons. Drilling a bit deeper, Sean Payton in home playoff games facing an opponent with a winning record is 6-2 SU, BUT 2-6 ATS.

From the machine learning applications, the Bucs are projected to score 27 or more points and average a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass attempt. In past playoff games, road teams that have met or exceeded this par of measures have earned an incredible 25-7 SU record and a 28-2-2 ATS record good for 93% winning bets and that covered the spread by an average of 11.8 points. Road teams during the regular and playoff seasons that are playing with double-revenge, scoring 27 or more points, and averaging 7 or more YPPA, have earned an 85-27 SU record and 98-9-5 ATS record goods for 92% winning bets. 
TAKE THE TAMPA BAY BUCS FOR A 5% BEST BET

Ohio State vs Alabama

8:00 PM EST, January 11, 2021
CFP Championship Game
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

5% Best Bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes +8 points. 

The current lines for this game price the Ohio State Buckeyes as 8-point underdogs with a total of 75.5 points. The action has seen greater number of tickets and money being bet on Alabama moving the line from its’ opening of 7-points. The UNDER has been the preferred bet and has lowered the total from its’ opening of 76.5 points

The line and total indicate and implied 41.75 - 33.75 Alabama win. The 28-point scoring level is an extremely important benchmark that defines many NCAAF teams ATS success or failure. Overall, teams playing on a neutral field and score 28 or more points have earned a 457-162 SU record for 74% wins and 421-187-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past ten seasons. 

Ohio State has earned a 10-1 SU record and 7-4 ATS mark when scoring 28 or more points in a neutral field setting. Regardless of location, Ohio State has earned an incredible 99-2 SU mark and 59-40-2 ATS for 69% winning bets spanning the past ten seasons. 

This Championship game implies that both teams will score 28 or more points and my machine learning tools support this in a big way. Ohio State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when playing in a neutral field setting and in game where both they and their opponent score 28 or more points. Alabama has been horrible money-losing bets when in games where they and their opponent both score 28 or more points with an 5-3 SU record and an imperfect 0-8 ATS record that has failed to cover the spread by an average of 10-points. 

Betting on neutral field underdogs that are averaging a minimum of 4.75 YPC on the season and coming off three consecutive games rushing the ball for at least 225 yards in each game has earned a highly profitable 38-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets in games played over the past 15 seasons. Obviously, this to supports Ohio State.

Nick Saban is a great coach, but there are a few situations in which he has not done well. Since becoming the head coach of Alabama he is 11-22 ATS for 33% winning bets when facing a team that is averaging 235 or more RYPG, and 1-6 ATS for 14% when the game is played on a neutral field. 

How to Bet This Game. 

My recommendation for this 5% Best Bet is to take Ohio State using the spread for an 80% amount of your 5% Amount. Then place 20% pre-flop (before the game) using the juicy money line. I am going to add 10% amounts in-game if Ohio State is lined at +11.5, and +14.5 points. If the +14.5 its live bet is confirmed then, I will immediately add 10% amount on the money line. 

Given the very high TOTAL, this game will have both teams ripping off 10 to 21 unanswered points. So, let the game volatility work with you and take advantage of these contrarian opportunities. Good Luck and Thank you for all the loyal support. 

Philadelphia vs Atlanta
7:30 PM EST, January 11, 2021

4% Best Bet on the 76ers + 6.5-points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too. 

Bonus 3% Best Bet OVER 222-points. 

Yes, I do know that Ben Simmons is out for tonight’s game and the 76ers are very short in the guard department. However, Embiid comes back tonight and the 76ers are 24-13 ATS for 65% winning bets in games that Embiid played in and Ben Simmons did not. 

The machine learning applications inform us that even with Simmons, the 76ers in road games are 103-42 SU, and 113-29-3 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points. The OVER has gone 127-18 for 88% winning points. 

So, the consider an optional parlay using the 76ers +6.5 points and the OVER 222-points. 

Baltimore Ravens Vs Tennessee Titans

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

1:05 PM EST January 10, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens

Here are a few quick hitters:
Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in road games facing a solid passing team that has completed 62% of their pass attempts on the season in games played over the last three seasons. 
They are 8-0 ATS in road games facing a solid offense gaining a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass in games played over the last three seasons. 

Baltimore’s season hit rock bottom in a Week 12, 19-14 loss at Division rival Pittsburgh and from there on out to the end of the regular season Baltimore has made improvements in each week. They are peaking at exactly the right time coming off 38-3 win at Cincinnati in which they posted many season-highs across the offensive efficiency metrics. 

 The Titans gained the most passing yards (1541) and ranked third in the NFL running a total of 174 play action pass plays. They have an outstanding ground attack led by Henry and the Ravens will look to confuse the gap blocking reads of the Titans offensive line with late pre-snap personnel movements. The Ravens have increased these adjustments whenever the play clock is under 10 seconds. The Ravens blitz a league-low 115 times because they were getting enough pressures and QB hits rushing just four linemen. The Ravens do not need to bring a safety to reinforce the run-defense and in turn makes play action nearly useless for the Titans. The Titans may counter this advantage for the Ravens by placing Tannehill in the shot-gun. 

Playoff teams like the favorable situation the Ravens are in, that are on a 6 or more game ATS win streak with 11 or more wins and in playoff games are 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 

NFL 2020-21 Wild Card Playoff Round

Bill Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

1:05 PM EST, January 9th, 2021

5% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts +6.5-points and sprinkle a bit extra on the money line. 

Some of you may like the Colts to win the Super Bowl, and if you do, I have a strong recommendation for you. The current futures line is 35:1 that the Colts win the Super Bowl. However, you will make more money if you bet the Colts using the money line in each game alog the way tow a potential Championship. So, I suggest playing this game with 75% on the line and then 30% using the money line. If you do like the Colts to go all the way, the bet a 25% amount of your 4% wager using the futures line, and then 30% using the money line in each game moving forward. 

Future Hall-of-Famer and 17-year veteran Philip Rivers adopted quickly and quit ewell to Colts head coach Frank Reich’s offensive scheme and proved that last seasons’ 19 interceptions thrown was an outlier. Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles Championship run in 2017. He looks like a genious now, having left for this position, the day after the Eagles Super Bowl win. Rivers’ and Reich’s playoff experience is a monumental advantage in this matchup against a Bills franchise playing in their first playoff as a favorite since the losss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 8.5-point favorites in 1996. 

The ket matchup for the Colts odffense is between Rivers and the Buffalo secondary featuring cornerback Tre’Davious White. For the majority of the regular season, the Colts knick was that they did have a ground attack strong enough to be respected by opponents defense units. Not the case now as the Colts averaged 124.8 rushing yards per game for the season and a monster 175.6 RYPG over their last three games that was good enough to rank third-best in the NFL. So, the Colts will be successful on the ground and force the Bills to bring a safety to the line-of scrimmage. When Rivers sees this scheme, he will look to use play-action and use seem and post routes knowing his receivers will be in man-coverage. 

The Colts defense was quite good throughout the 2020 season and the Bills will struggle to run the ball. Although the Bills with Josh Allen are a pass-happy unit, forcing him to throw more than he is used to, will make ti very tough to move the chains into scoring opportunities. 

HC Reich is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games having won two of the last three games. 

Reich is 16-5 ATS facing solid offensive units that average 350 or more total yards-per-game. 

My machine learning tools reveal that the Colts are a highly profitable 15-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS in road games holding an opponent to fewer than 100 rushingn yards and gaining a total of 300 or more total yards in games played over the last ten seasons. Under the same projections, the Bills are just 4-12 SU and ATS in home games over the last ten seasons. Home playoff teams that fail to gain 100 rushing yards and allow 300 or more total yards are 14-13 SU, BUT a money-losing 7-19-1 ATS in playoff games played over the last ten seasons. 

North Carolina vs Texas A&M

5% Best Bet on Texas A&M -7

Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

This is a game that I believe Texas A&M will win by at least 11 points. Do NOT make anything of the fact that Texas A&M thinks they should have been the 4th seed in the CFO and that they are going to go out in this game to prove a point. Jimbo Fisher has coached mamny games and has been part of Florida State’s National Championship.

So, I did extemsive research factoring all of the opt-out players and UNC has lost the most starting talent by a landslide and that adds even more confidence to the Machine Learning model predictions.

Quick Hitters:
Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. 8-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last three seasons. 10-2 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three seasons. UNC HC Brown is 9-22 ATS after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored for his career.

Betting on any team in a game involving two excellent rushing teams gaining at least 4.75 YPRA and with one of the teams coming off a game allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game has earned a 35-9 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The machine learning tools I use and have developed predict a near-90% probability that A&M will score 35 or more points. A&M is 121-64-6 ATS when scoring 35 or more points in games played since 2000 and under head coach Jimbo Fisher, they are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS.

Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

4% Best Bet on Mississippi State +2.5 points.

Mike Leach took over the head coaching responsibilities this season at Miss State and won his first game against the defending national champion LSU Tigers. We learned quickly that LSU was nowhere close to being the same team last season and Miss State sputtered and lost 7 of their next 8 games, before ending the season on a high note with a win over Missouri. All season, Miss State struggled to run the ball enough for opposing defenses to respect. However, they gained a season-high 154 rushing yards in the win over Missouri.

Since 2000, he has been a head coach in every season except 2010 and 2011. This marks the 17th Bowl game in 18 years as a head coach at Texas Tech, Washington State, and now Miss State.

 Betting on teams with a line within three points on either side of pick-em with a team that is coming off a game where they outgained that opponent b 125 or more total yards and are now facing a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned an impressive 114-61-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Florida vs Oklahoma
Cotton Bowl Classic

AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX

8:00 PM EST, December 30, 2020

4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Florida Gators +7 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I would highly recommend placing 70% of your normal 4% bet size on Florida prior to the start of the game. This game promises to have team scoring streaks that we can then exploit to our advantage. Starting with Florida as a 4.5-point underdog right now, add 15% of your 4% bet size in-game with a line of +8 or higher, and then the last 15% amount on Florida at +11.5 points.

Florida is without their top-4 WR, who have opted out, but why then is the line not heading towards making Oklahoma a -11 or more-point favorite? It is simply because Florida has a stable of elite WR and no other team in the country recruits WR better than Florida has over the years.

Using the money, betting on neutral field teams that have beaten the spread by 21 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 26-21 straight-up record, but has made over $4,100 for the $100 bettor spanning the last 10 seasons of games.

Also, playing on playoff and bowl game underdogs that are getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them, but more than 60% of the money have earned an outstanding 107-40 record for 73% ATS winning bets since 2011.

Boston vs Indiana

7:05 PM EST, December 29, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Boston Celtics +1-point.

The NBA schedule maker was not kind to the Celtics having to open with Milwaukee, then Brooklyn, and now back-to-back games against the Pacers. This is the second of two away-away situations, which are aimed to help mitigate the COVID-19. Celtics did lose 108-107 this past Sunday and failed to cover the spread as 3-point road favorites.

Betting on favorites during the first eight games of the regular season using the money line, which is off a home win, closed out the previous season with at least four consecutive losses has earned a highly profitable 69-19 record for 78% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a profit of more than $3,600. since 2000.

Betting on teams that made a minimum of 76% of their free throws in the previous seasons and are coming off three consecutive games allowing 47% or better opponent shooting has earned a highly profitable 18-8 rcord for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made over $2,000 in profits for the $100 bettor.

The machine learning models show us that Boston playing on the road is an outstanding 39-12 SU for 77% wins, 38-11-2 ATS for 78% winning bets since 2015, when their opponent commits 16 or more turnovers and shoots less than 37.5% from beyond the arc.

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

4:30 PM EST, December 26, 2020.

4% Best bet on the San Francisco 49ers +6 points and sprinkle a little on the money line.

CJ Beathard is starting for the 49ers and this is his audition to make an impression prior to him becoming a free agent in two weeks. I strongly believe he will play well and has the potential to win the game outright.

Here is an excellent betting system that has earned a solid 48-20-4 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to play on road dogs facing a host that have a miserable turnover margin of -3 or worse in their previous game in games played since the start of the 2016 season.

The machine learning tools project that the 49ers will score a minimum of 24 points and gain at least 4.0 yards-per-rush. In past road games in which the 49ers met these performance measures has earned them a 55-17-2 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 2016.

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

4:30 PM EST, Christmas Day

4% Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints. 

Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that has earned a 37-7 ATS record good for 84% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on offensive teams gaining between 5.4 and 5.8 yards-per-play on the season, are coming off a game getting outgained by a minimum of 100 total yards, and are not facing a struggling defense allowing 5.8 or more YPPL on the season. 

Minnesota is giving up 27.7 points-per-game and New Orleans is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing struggling defenses allowing 27 or more PPG on the season in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the machine learning tools, the Saints are 39-17-1 ATS when the have gained 6.5 or more YPPL in home games since 2000. 

Golden State vs Milwaukee

2:30 PM EST, Christmas Day

4% NBA Best Bet on the Colden State Warriors +10 points. 

Both teams lost their opening game to the season. Milwaukee lost 122-121 to the Boston Celtics and the Warriors lost at Brooklynn 125-99. 

From the machine learning model, the Bucks are projected to have at least 20 turnovers and have more turnovers than the Warriors. In past Bucks games in which they committed 20 or more turnovers and had more turnovers than their opponent has earned a terrible 7-14 ATS record for 33% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Marshall vs Buffalo

Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, AL

5% Best Bet on Marshall +5.5 points.
3% Best Bet ‘UNDER’ 54 points.

1% Parlay Sprinkle Marshall using the Money Line and the UNDER.

I’ll get right to the powerful and highly profitable betting system that supports the Marshall Thundering Herd. In a Bowl Game, bet against a favorite that lost their conference championship game by eight or more points. This situation has seen the false favorite post a miserable 13-18 SU record and a 9-22 ATS record for 29%, and the UNDER earning a solid 21-10 record good for 68% winning bets in bowl games played since 2005.

Drilling down through this dataset by querying only Bowl Games played in December produces a highly profitable 5-12 SU record, 1-16 ATS record for 6%, and the UNDER winning the cash on a 13-4 record for 77% winning bets since 2005.

The market has priced in the loss of Marshall’s star running back Brenden Know, who left the team. Marshall has many running backs that will be eager to step up to take advantage of the extra game time and include junior Sheldon Evans and sophomore Knowledge McDaniels. Freshman QB Wells is a running threat in his own right and completed 61% of his passes for 1,977 yards, 18 touchdowns, , 9 interceptions, and a 144 QBR.

This money line bettig system has earned a 23-19 record for 55% winning bets, making the $100 bettor, a sizable profit of $4,350 in games bet over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line and are coming off three games in which they were beaten by 21 or more points versus the spread. The average money line bet has been +273.

Providence vs Butler
6:00 PM EST, December 24, 2020
Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best Bet on Butler

Just four games into the season, Butler finds themselves in an urgent situation to win a game. With a 1-3 record, Butler is off to their worst start since the 1998-99 season, and must play better against a 7-2 Providence and Big East foe toight.

Providence is led by two scorers. Junior and preseason All-Big East First Team selection David Duke and senior and preseason All-Big East Second Team selection Nate Wilson are averageing 19.4 and 19.3 PPG, respectively. The tandem creates a strong inside-outside game, especially with Duke hitting a scorching 47% from beyond the arc.

Both teams play at a relatively slow pace and this increases the need for strong defensive rebounding by Butler to minimize second-chance scoring chances for Providence. Through four games, itler is allowing an outstanding 4.5 offensive rebounds-per-game. Bryce Nze is coming off back-to-back games getting 10 or more rebounds in each game.

Butler is 8-0 ATS in games line within 3-points on either side of pick in games played over the last three seasons. Butler head coach Jordan is 13-4-1 ATS in home games coming off a game allowing five or fewer offensive rebouds and 9-2 ATS in home games facing solid ball-handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
8:15 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals +14 points.

I also like teasing the Bengals up to +21 and the ‘UNDER’ up to 47.5 points.

Home Dogs of 8.5 to 15.5 points that have won less than 23% of their games in the current season, in weeks 8 thorugh 17 of the regular season, and facing a conference foe have earned a 42-23-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 1990.

Dogs on Monday Nights that have also been dogs in their previous three games has seen the ‘UNDER’ go 18-3 since the start of the 2015 season.

Pittsburgh has topped 50 yards rushing just twice over its past seven games, allowing defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Steelers' short passing game. Plus, Tomlin is just 3-8 ATS for 27% dressed as a double-digit road favorite.

Texas State vs Northern Arizona

3:00 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Northern Arizona +9 points and sprinkle some on the money line

NAU will be seeking their first win of the season after losing the first four games to start their season. TST is off to a 5-3 record and are coming off a70-68 win at Denver, but failed to cover the spread as 7 point favorites. NAU has lost all four games ATS and have not shot better than 37% from thw field in any of these games. However, they have faced much tougher competition than has Texas State and this ‘seasoning’ is going to pay-off this afternoon. 

TST is 4-12 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in games played over the last two seasons; 3-12 ATS when facing a team that struggles on the defensive end allowing 45% or high shooting in games played over the last three seasons. 

This is momey line system is one that you definitley want to record and track. It has earned a 39-44 SU record for 47% winning bets since 2000, but has made the $100 bettor a $4,710 profit over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team using the money line that is allowing a terrible 52% shooting from the field and are getting out rebounded by seven or more boards-per-game. 

Wofford vs Texas A&M

1:00 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Texas A&M -5.5 points

Here is a great betting system that has earned a 59-29 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on a home team that is favored including pick, after being beaten by 33 or more points to the spread over their last five games and sports a win percentage of at least 80% on the season. 

Wofford is 0-6 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games in games played over the last two seasons. Texas A&M head coach Williams is 25-6 ATS after a game where his Aggies had two or fewer steals. 

J

Arizona vs Philadelphia

4% Best Bet on Arizona minus the points. 

From the machine learning model and tools, Arizona is projected to gain 150 or more rushing yards and average 5.8 yards-per-play. Since 2011, when the Cardinals met or exceeded these measures, has led them to a 14-2 SU record and a 13-3 ATS record good for 81% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. 

The Eagles are a money-burning 4-17 SU and ATS in games played in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed an average of 5.8 yards-per-play over the last ten seasons. 

Eagles head coach Pederson is 5-13 ATS in games played on turf. 

Alabama vs Florida

8:00 PM EST, December 19, 2020

5% Best Bet Florida +17 and yes, sprinkle some on the money line at a +650 price. 

I will be playing this game as an 85% amount of a 5% bet using the spread and then 15% on the money line. 

This betting system has earned a 23-18 SU record for 56% winning bets over the last ten seasons making a $100 bettor a profit of $5,705. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. 

From the machine learning tools, Florida is projected to gain 9 or more yards-per-pass-play and Alabama is 11-22 SU when they have allowed an opponent 9 or more YPPP. Under head coac Nick Saban, the Tide is 5-11 ATS and just 9-7 SU when allowing 8.5 or more YPPL. 

Florida is 16-2 against the money line when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons; 26-4 against the money line when they gain 450 to 500 total yards in games played since 2000. 

Illinois vs Penn State
4% Best Bet on Penn State -15 points

 This betting system has earned a highly profitable 48-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a conference foe and coming off two consecutive wins and ATS covers as double-digit favorites.

 From the machine learning model and tools, PSU is expected to score at least 28 points and they are 33-11-4 ATS under James Franklin when scoring 28 or more points. Illinois is just 15-53-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2011. PSU is also projected to gain over 500 yards. They are 16-3 ATS for 84% winning bets under James Fraklin.

Air Force vs Army
3:30 PM EST, December 19, 2020

4% Best Bet on Army and sprinkle soe on the money line. I like making these live dogs combination wagers using the line and the money line. I am wagerig 70% of my 4% bet amount plus the points and then 30% using the money line.

Here is one of the best money line bettig systems you will ever see and has earned a 24-5 SU record over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a non-conference foe, who is coming off two straight wins over conference foes.

Air Force is just 34-42 against the money line (-50.9 Units) when facing good rushing teams averaging a minimum of 4.75 rushing yards-per-carry.

I also like Army using the first-half money lie as they are projected to have the lead at the half. Army is 20-3 SU when gaining 250 or rushing yards in home games and have lead at the half.

Oklahoma vs Iowa State

Big-12 Championship

4% Best Bet on Iowa State +

I also like making this a combination wager consisting of 70% amount of a 4% amount using the line and a 30% of a 4% amount bet using the money line.

Iowa State is active in a very strong betting system that has earned a 46-17 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that s a good rushing team gaining 190 to 230 rushing yards after playing seven or more games, and after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game and now facing a team that is averaging 140 to 180 rushing yards-per-game.

The machine learning model and tools project that ISU will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and average a minimum of at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games where they met these standards, they have earned a 25-9-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 2011. Plus, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when installed as a dog.

UAB vs Marshall
Ryan Conference USA Championship Game
Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntigton, WV

4% Best bet on the UAB Blazers

UAB has posted terrific re zone numbers scoring 23 TDs and 7 FGs on 32 red zone attempts. Only two times did they not score points in the red zone. They have played two games over the last six weeks, but they are led by Senior QB Tyler Johnston III, So, his experience is major advantage for the entire team.

UAB is 35-11 ATS after a two-gae road trip. UAB head coach is 32-18-1 ATS when playing a game on a turf field. Marshall HC Holliday is just 9-18 ATS as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and 1-8 ATS coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points in the first half.

Home teams, who suffered their first loss of the season after game number 6 has been played and are facing a team that lost to them in their previous matchup has earned a money-burning 26-47 ATS record good for 35% winning bets since 2008.

Betting on road underdogs after the first four weeks of the season, who are facing a host that was beaten by 28 or more points versus the spread over the last ten seasons has earned a 60-26-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. So, UAB is the road underdog and Marshall lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite to Rice in their last game.

Bet UAB as a 4% Best bet +4.5 points and sprinkle some on the money line.

LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
4% Best Bet on the Chargers +3 points.

Let us start with a highly profitable betting system that has earned an outstanding 47-24 ATS for 68% winning bets and 51-18-2 UNDER. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games.

Here is a second betting system that supports the Chargers and underscores how poorly the Raiders have taken care of the ball this season. This system has earned a 72-39 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on any team after committing no more than one turnover and is facing an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin in their previous game.

Teams that have 4 or more wins than their divisional opponent and are a home favorite of not more than 4 points are a terrible 13-21-1 ATS for 38.2% winning bets since 2006.

The machine learning tools project that the Chargers will score 24 or more points and force the Raiders into a minimum of two turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these measures, have seen them go on to earn a 26-2 SU record and 24-4 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 10.2 points.

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns

First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

4% Baltimore Ravens – 3.0 points

The two best running teams collide tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, but it will be the passing game that will dictate the winner of this game. Both quarterbacks overall have graded at about the same levels. However, Mayfield has a 116 QB rating when passing the ball in a clean pocket and a horrid 32 QBR when pressured. With a clean pocket, Jackson has earned a 98 QBR and when pressured an excellent 82.4 QBR. Jackson has been sacked 24 times, with 7 deflected balls, 16 drops, 8 throwaways, and 36 scramble plays. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times, five deflected passes, 19 drops, 24 throwaways, and 14 scrambles.

Mayfield and his offense will not be facing one of the best defenses, who lead the NFL with 211 blitz plays or 42% of all defensive calls on the season. Seattle is second in the NFL with 202 blitzes accounting for 33.7% of the plays and Seattle has a game in hand. Browns' offensive line ranks first in the NFL giving Mayfield an average of 2.8 seconds of pocket time, but you will see the Ravens reduce that pocket time by at least a full second. So, the Ravens are by far the most aggressive blitz-happy team in the NFL and this is going to make it extraordinary rough for Mayfield to complete passes.

Jackson will face a solid Browns defense that blitzes 22% of all plays ranking 21st in the NFL and will have time to go through the play progressions and complete passes.

This betting system has earned a highly profitable 41-18 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2010 and requires us to bet on teams with a line within 3-points on either side of pick-em in a conference matchup where the team scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games and is facing an opponent off a game in which a total of 50 or more points were scored.

Coach Harbaugh is 13-3 after Week 8 in road games against teams that are allowing 24 or more PPG.

No 9 Villanova vs Georgetown

McDonough Arena

5% Best Bet on Villanova -11.5 points.

The betting line opened with Villanova installed as -10-point road favorites and quickly moved to the current price of -11.5 points. The machine learning summary predicts Villanova will win this game by at least 18 points, so any further increase in the betting line will in no way disqualify this betting opportunity.

The machine learning tools predict that Villanova will score 80 or more points, shoot 40% or better from the beyond the arc, and commit 5 or fewer turnovers than Georgetown. In past games in which Villanova met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an impressive 23-0 SU record and 18-3 ATS record good for 86% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 11.8 points.

New England vs LA Rams
8:15 PM EST, December 10, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Patriots +5 points and I like sprinkling a little extra on the money line.

Bill Belichick, once again showed the NFL world why he is the G.O.A.T head coaches in the45-0 blowout and shutout of the LA Chargers last week. Note, that he is 5-1 SU + ATS installed as a dog and coming off a shutout win in his head coaching career. For the first time since the 2008 season, Belichick finds his team with 6 or fewer wins entering Week 13 or beyond. He is 10-5 ATS in this situation as the HC of the Patriots and 10-8 ATS as the HC of the Browns dating back to 1991. As the Patriots HC, he is 7-2 ATS when his teams have had 6 or fewer wins and the game was in Week 14 or beyond.

This is a matchup of two solid defenses matched up against two average offenses that have shown signs of their full potential at different times this season. Patriots defense ranks 7th in scoring defense allowqing 21.2 PPG and 23rd in scoring offense averaging 22.8 PPG. Rams rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 20.2 PPG and 17th in scoring offense averaging 25.1 PPG.

The rankings compare similarly with the yards-per-point, points-per-play, and yards-per-play ratios. So, in a game that the implied betting lines of Rams favored by 5 and a 44-point total indicate a 24.5-19.5 Rams victory, with both teams not scoring more than 24 points, I’ll take the defensive genius of Belichick.

The machine learning tools indicate that the Patriots will have more rushing attempts than passing attempts and will gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, under Belichick, and when they met these performance standards, the Patriots have earned an 86-3 SU record and 78-11 ATS record good for 88% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. If the game in question was on the road, the Patriost are 36-3 SU and 37-2 ASTS for 95% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the New England Patriots +4.5 or +5 if you can get it and sprinkle a little money line magic too.

Santa Clara vs Cal Poly
9:00 PM EST, December 9, 2020
Robert A. Mott Athletics Center San Luis Obispo, CA

I always like asking people when Caly Poly comes up in a hoopes discussion (Or machine learning discussion) what the SLO stands for. You may know the answer, but if you do not the answer is San Luis Obispo (SLO). And is one of California’s oldest European founded Communities. Plus, one heck of a technology school too.

I did wait to release this play today having great confidence that the line was going to climb higher as the day wore on. This betting system supports the bet on Cal Poly SLO and has earned a 43-22-2 ATS record good for 71% ATS winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on home teamsa during the first 6 games of the regular seasons after losing 8 or more of their last 10 games of the previous season to earn a poor win percentage of 20 to 40% and now facing a team that had a winning record last season.

Cal Poly SLO has earned a 9-2 ATS record installed as a double-digit underdog in games played over the last two seasons.

Denver vs Kansas City
4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos +13.5 points and sprinkle a small amount on the monmey line.

There are many team situational trends working against Kansas City starting with the fact they are 0-7 ATS following a game in which they gained a minimum of 450 total yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 5-18 ATS following three consecutive games gaining 380 or more yards in each of the three games in games played over the last three seasons. Head coach Andy Reid is 0-12 ATS in home games going off a win, but failing to cover the spread as a favorite in all games of his career; 0-7 ATS as the HC of the Philadelphia Eagles and 0-5 ATS with the Chiefs.

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a perfect 6-0 ATS following a loss of 14 or more points.

Here is a money line betting system that supports the possible and shocking upset win. Bet on road teams using the money line that has a defense allowing an average of 330 to 375 yards-per-game and is facing a host who is averaging a minimum of 370 total yards-per-game and is coming off a game where their defense allowed 400 or more total yards. This money line system has earned a 20-10 record SU for 67% and has made the $100 bettor a whopping $2,750 over the last five seasons.

Bet the Denver Broncos as a 4% Best Bet and don’t forget the small sprinkle using the juicy money line. Also, My free pick video is on the Jets today and I plan on a small parlay using the monmey lines for both Jets and Broncos. You never know.

Cleveland  Browns vs Tennessee Titans

4% Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans minus the points.

The Browns have an 8-3 record, but have just one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and four wins against the lowly NFC East teams. Both teams have great ground attack and defenses that plays to their strengths and makes few mistakes.

The Titans rank second-best in the NFL averaging 158.2 RYPG on the season and the Browns are best averaging 161 RYPG. The Browns are 3-8 ATS in road games facing an opponent that is averaging 140 RYPG and 4-10 ATS regardless of site location facing a foe averaging 140 or more RYPG.

This betting systems works against the Browns and has earned a 29-14-4 ATYS record good for 6% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet against teams that are averaging 180 to 230 passing yards-per-game and coming off a game in which they averaged a minimum of 7.2 yards-per-pass attempt, and facing a team that is allowing an average of at least 240 passing yards on the season.

The machine learning tools project that the Titans will gain at least 125 rushing yards and score a minimum of 24 points. Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points when meeting or exceeded that pair of performance measures.

Miami (Fla) vs Duke
8:00 PM EST, December 4, 2020

3% ACC Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes

 The summary projections from my machine learning toolshed indicate a high probability that the Hurricanes will win this game by 24 or more points.

The following college football betting system has earned a remarkable 76-35-2 ATS record for 69% winning plays since 2006 and requires us to bet on road teams play their second, third, or fourth consecutive road game and are favored by 14 or more points and facing an opponent hat has won 35% or less of their games on the season.

It all adds up to the Miami Hurricanes cruising to an easy win. 

Tennessee vs Florida
5% SEC Best bet on the Tennessee

From my days on Wall Street as an institutional trader, this is an example of arbitrage, which is the simultaneous buying and selling of homogenous securities. In the SEC is buying low with Tennessee and selling high with Florida and getting a spread that is just too many points.

Teams in the SEC, like Tennessee, who have lost five straight and failed to cover the spread in all five games are 5-0 ATS in SEC competition in games played over the last five seasons.

Now, here is a money line betting system that has feasted on getting on cheaply priced underdogs and has earned a 45-65 record for just 43% wins, BUT has averaged a +300 underdog bet and making the $100 bettor a profit of $7,450 in bets made over the last five seasons. The requirements are simple and are to bet against road favorites using the money line after game number 5 of the regular season and having won five consecutive games.

So, I know and understand, that this is a bold statement, but play this bet as a 5% using the line and then sprinkle just a little on the money line – just in case of the shocker of all shockers. I have had at least one underdog of 17 or more points win the game in each of the last 10 seasons. I obviously never know when they will occur, but playing a little on the money line with these double-digit cast to the curb dogs has provided a lot more cash.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn

4% Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers +6.5 points. I also like playing this bet by placing an 85% amount of a 4% bet using the line and then15% of a 4% amount using the money line. This strategy when used on underdogs that I believe have a solid opportunity to win the game adds a significant amount of additional profits over the course of the season.

Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher was a great defensive coordinator for Florida State. He has his A&M team allowing just 3.0 yards-per-rush, ranking second in the SEC behind Georgia, who is allowing a scant 2.4 YPR on the season. In home games, Auburn is a stellar 27-12-1 ATS when facing strong rush defesnes allowing 120 or fewer yards-per-game in games played since 2006.

Auburn is 16-4-1 ATS after having covered the spread in three of their last four games since 2006; under head coach Gus Malzahn, they are 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets (7-2 ATS when the game is at home).

The bad news of losing 42-13 to No. 1 Alabama last week is good news this week as it puts them into a rock-solid betting system that has earned a highly profitable 33-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to be on underdogs from the eighth game on, between 3.5 and 9.5 points, and coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points in the first half, and is averaging between 21 and 28 PPG and facing an elite offense scoring between 28 and 34 PPG on the season.

From the machine learning toolshed Auburn is projected to score at least 28 points and when they have accomplished this in past games, they are 15-2 ATS over the last three seasons and 118-47 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plus, a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog and scoring 28 or more points under head coach Malzahn.

Penn State vs Rutgers

Noon ET, December 5, 2020

4% Best Bet on Penn State -11,-11.5 points.  Given that my machine learning model project that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points, simply bet the game with the line that is available for you. 

Here is a consistent money-making betting system that has earned a highly profitable 186-111-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2011. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG on the season and facing an opponent that has played two consecutive games in which they and their opponents scored 60 or more points. A subset including double digit road favorites and conference matchups produces a 71-39-1 ATS record good fo 65% winning bets since 2012. 

PSU Head Coach James Franklin is a 12-3 ATS off a road win; 27-8-1 SATS off a win against a conference foe; 11-3 off a road win to a conference foe. PSU is an outstanding 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets installed as a double-digit road favorite and facing a host, who has a defense allowing 30 or more PPG on the season. 

North Texas vs. Mississippi State

8:00 PM EST, December 4, 2020

4% Best Bet on North Texas plus 3.5-points. If the line drops to +2.5 or lower, then consider using the money line for this bet.

Miss State is just 7-17-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed a 33% or lower shooting percentage in games played since 2006. North Texas is 55-28 ATS for 67% winning bets in non-home games (road or neutral) installed as a 5.5-point or less underdog in games played since 2006.

Head Coach McCasland has three returning starters from last season and a 1-starter edge of Miss State skipper Howland, who returns two starters. Experience at the beginning of the season is a premium asset. McCasland is a solid 23-9-1 ATS when facing strong defensive teams allowing 42% or lower opponent shooting.

From the machine learning ranks, the model projects that North Texas will hold MSST to 45% or worse shooting, commit 13 or fewer turnovers, and make 80% of their free throws. In past games, in which North Texas, met or exceeded these performance measures has earned their backers a 19-5 SU record good for 79% wins and 17-5-1 ATS for 77% winning bets in games played since 2006.

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020

5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.

My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.

The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.

Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.

Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan

J

Ball State Vs. Toledo

12:00 PM EST, November 28, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Ball State Cardinals plus the points. Consider an additional wager of no more than a 1% amount using the money line

Let’s start with a betting system that has earned a solid 35-9-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent that is allowing right or fewer points in the first half and are coming off two consecutive games in which they scored 20 or more points in the first half. 

Toledo has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but Ball State has won the money sporting a 7-4 ATS record. Ball State Senior QB Drew Pitt led his team to 38-0 first half lead over Toledo last season enroute to a 52-14 beat-down. He completed 11 fo 16 passes for 65% and 206 passing yards for an amazing 213 quarter rate. His leadership is invaluable and he knows Toledo and their defensive schemes well. So, this is just too many points to give Ball State in this matchup. 

Toledo head coach Candle is just 2-10 ATS when coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored in each one. 

Toledo QB Eli Peters remains listed as questionable with a knee injury and even if he does start, he will not be even 80% effective. 

Take the Ball State Cardinals plus the points as a 4% Best Bet Titan and sprinkle no more than 1% on the Money Line

Kent State vs. Buffalo
12:00 Noon ET, November 28, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points.

 There are numerous coaching trends that support Buffalo in this matchup. Head Coach Leipold is 12-2-1 ATS in home games coming off one or more ‘OVER’ results; 18-3-1 ATS in home games facing MAC foes; 7-0 ATS when coming off a game in which the Bulls out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 125 rushing yards; 10-1 ATS in home games facing an opponent that completes a minimum of 58% of their passes.

 From the machine learning model, Buffalo is projected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of of 6 yards-per-rush. Buffalo is 16-5 ATS over the last three seasons and 70-19-1 ATS the last ten seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS and 11-0 SU when they have scored 28 or more points and gained 6 or more YPR since 2011.

 Take the Buffalo Bulls to the bank as a 4% Best Bet minus the points.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina
3:30 PM EST, November 27, 2020

The No.2 Notre Dame Irish will take to the road to face a white hot and No. 25 UNC Tarheels team in a monster showdown. UNC QB Sam Howell is coming off a school-record 550 passing yards in a come from behind 59-53 win over Wake Forest and is atop the ACC standings averaging 338 yards-per-game of total offense including 23 touchdowns.

Notre Dame will try to rotate defensive linemen and corners into the game, but UNC will play fast, especially when they have the matchup them want to exploit on the perimeter and the back-end of the Irish defense. The Irish start a true freshman at corner in Clarence Lewis and you can bet the Tarheels will look to exploit favorable matchups against him and not allow the Irish to have time to substitute for fatigued players.

The ground game of the Tarheels is a two-headed monster in Javonte Williams (109) and Michael Carter (101) both averaging more than 100 rushing yards-per-game. The Irish defense ranks best in the ACC allowing 85.1 RYPG, but that number is going to go up after this game. The solid ground attack is going to put immense pressure on the Irish secondary. The safeties in particular have to lineup closer to the line of scrimmage than normally required to support the run defense. When the safeties are playing run, then the vertical crossing routes are going to be in man converage for Howell to exploit time and time again.

Home underdogs coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 42 points in each game are a rock solid 71-34 ATS for 68% winning bets since 1980 and 16-8 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2017. If both teams are ranked and the home dog is ranked lower in the standings than the opponent (ND =2 and UNC=25), the home dog is a stellar 7-4 SU for 64% winning bets and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2006.

The machine learning model projects that UNC will average a minimum of 10 yards-per-pass play and rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards. In past games in which UNC met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 20-1 SU record and 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points in games played since 2000.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
2:00 PM ET, November 26, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska had their struggles with a 7-25 SU record in 2019, but will be much better in 2020. They did get off a great starte defeating McNeese State 102-55 yesterday, shooting 50% form the field, 45 total rebounds, and just 10 turnovers.

I have a betting system that supports Nebraska and has earned an incredible 48-17 ATS record over the last five seasons. The system requires us to be on home teams for the first five games of the regular season after losing eight of their last ten games of the previous season and won between 20% and 40% of their games last seasons and facing a team that did have a winning record last season.

From the machine learning model, Bengraska is projected to shoot at least 44% from the field and have fewer than 14 turnovers in this m,atchup. In past games, in which Nebraska met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a profitable 24-12-1 ATS road record good for 67% winning bets and 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets at neutral sites.

Take the Nebraska Cornhuskers as a 4% Best Bet

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions
12:00 PM EST, November 26, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Houston Texans minus the points.

Over the last four games, Detroit has lost three of them by double digits and in their lone win, they nearly coughed up a 21-point lead. Head Coach Mike Patricia is on the hot seat for sure, but that does not mean his team is going to play any better in their only nationally televised game of the season today. Teams on short rest that have lost 3-of-4 games by more than double digits are 10-17 ATS for 37% winning bets dating back to 1992. The ‘OVER’ in these games has been an impressive 16-9-2 for 64% winning bets.

Here is a betting system that supports the play produced by the machine learning model and has earned a profitable 46-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Bet on road teams that allowed 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt in their last game and is now facing a struggling offensive team that gained 4.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt in their last game. Here is a subset of that system. When the team is playing on short rest the road teams has earned a 7-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points.

Wager on the Houston Texas as a 4% Best Bet and lay the points.

NFL Week 11
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts
4% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts

I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for the Colts defense to keep the Packers ground attack to fewer than 100 rushing yards and gain more yards-per-play than the Packers. In past home games in which the Colts met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 20-1 SU record and 17-3 ATS mark for 85% winning bets since 2010.

The Colts are coming off a double digit 34-17 SU win over their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a money-making 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010 when they defeated a divisional foe by a double digit margin in their previous game.

Take the Indianapolis Colts and bet them using the Money Line.

NFL Week 11

4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

The Miami Dolphins have surged to a 6-3 SU record under the brilliant play of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has put up some jaw-dropping numbers. With a win, Tua would join Ben Roethlisberger as the only other QB to win their first four games of their career.

     Denver’s suffocating defense has not been playing well and have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. Yet, 44 of the 144 points allowed in these four games came off of turnovers with that opponent having a short field and much higher scoring chance.  Denver’s defensive coordinator is out for this game, but has returned home after being  hospitalized with COVID. DE Shelby Harris is out as well for this game. I still believe that Denver’s defense is going to present new challenges for Tua to overcome.

     Here is a money line betting system that has earned a 17-6 SU record since 2010 and requires us to bet on home teams that average 100 to 125 RYPG and are coming off a game getting outrushed by 100 or more yards and now facing a suspect defensive unit allowing an average of 125 to 150 RYPG in the second half of the current season.

    
My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models predict that Denver will average more yards-per-play than the Dolphins and score at least 20 points. In past home games in which the Broncos met or exceeded these measures has led to a 25-11 SU record for 69% wins and 27-7-2 ATS for 79% winning bets that have covered by an  average of 9 points in games played since 2010.

Bet the Denver Broncos and sprinkle a little extra wager using the money line.

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens

4% AFC Best Bet Showdown on the Baltimore Ravens

The machine learning model projects that Baltimore will gain 200 or more rushing and 200 or more passing yards. In past games in which Baltimore met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 8-0 SU record and a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points since 2000.

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
7:30 PM EST, November 21, 2020

5% Big-12 Game of the Month on the Oklahoma State Cowboys

I like Oklahoma State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.

The machine learning model projects that Oklahoma State will rush the ball a minimum of 40 times and gain at least 165 rushing yards. In past games in which Oklahoma State met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a 59-11 SU record and a highly-profitable 52-13-4 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2006 and 15-6-2 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.

This money line betting system has earned a solid money-making 32-12 SU record good for 72% winning bets  spanning the last ten seasons and underscores my expectations that Oklahoma State can win the game. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line that is coming off a game gaining a minimum of 5.5 yards-per-rush attempt, is averaging at least 4 YPRA, and is now facing a team with an average run defense allowing between 3.7 and 4.2 YPRA on the season.

NCAAF Week 12
PAC-12 Action

4% Best Bet UCLA Bruins plus the points over Oregon

My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models that I developed predict that UCLA will score at least 28 points and hold Oregon to a maximum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which UCLA met or exceeded these performance measures has earned thema 46-15-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2006 and under head coach Chip Kelly a perfect 4-0 ATS mark.

Kelly is 14-2 ATS in road games and coming off a game in which his team had no more than single turnover.

Bet on conference road underdogs that are not ranked and facing a conference foe that is ranked and within the first five games of the season and are coming off a game in which they allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards. This set of parameters has earned a 21-11 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 2005.

Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina
12:00 PM EST, November 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Appalachian State

I like Appalachian State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.

The following betting system has eanred a highly-profitable 26-7-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet on a team that is facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games and in a matchup where both the team and the opponent have a win percentage of at least 80% on the season. In Week 7 of last year Appalachian State was in the same role and defeated Louisiana Lafayette 17-7 as a 1.5-point road underdog.

My machine learning models predict that App State will have at least a five minute edge in time of possession and will run a minimum of 65 plays in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned an outstanding 25-7-1 ATS record for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.2 points.

Illinois vs Rutgers
Noon ET, November 14, 2020
4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Fighting Illini

The money flows support this play on Illinois. Illinois bettig volume accounts for 68% of the moiney bet on just 28% of the tickets. This reflects a much greater betting amount per-bet placed on Illinois and reflects that the sophisticated professional likes backing Illinois.

This betting system supports Illinois and has eanred a solid 38-10-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requires are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are gettig outscored by 17 or more points-per-game and have allowed 31 or more points in three consecutive games.

NCAAF Week 11
Army vs Tulane

4% Best Bet on the Army Black Knights

Army is a young team, but playing at a high level and received the 27th most votes in this week’s AP poll. The have not played in three weeks and I do not believe there will be any letdown whatsoever. The team knows that with a win here in New Orleans they will crack the Top-25 poll this coming week.

The following system has eanred an outstanding 75-26-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road teams that are averaging a minimum of 235 rushing yards-per-game, are coming off a game gaining at least 280 rushing yards, and now facing an opponment that has allowed 125 to 150 RYPG on the season.

The machine learning model projects that Army will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and this is great news for backers of Army. In games in which Army rushed for 250 or more yards on 60 or more rushig attempts, and scored 27 or more points has earned a 27-11 SU record and a 25-13 ATS mark good for 66% winning bets since 2010.

NCAAF Week 11
Iowa vs Minnesota

4% Best Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes

First, 48% of the tickets and 77% of the monmey has been on the Hawkeyes in betting action this week and that is supportive of our bet. I like the line at 3 and do not expect it to move to 3.5, but you could see the vig start increasing on the Iowa lines.

My machine learning models project that Iowa will score 28 or more points in this matchup. In past games in which they scored 28 or more has earned them a solid 31-2 SU record and 24-8-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. And when on the road and scoring 28 or more points, Iowa is a perfect 10- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points in games played since 2015.

Eastern Michigan vs Ball State
7:00 PM EST, November 11, 2020

4% Best Bet on Ball State

EMU is coming off a 27-23 loss and ATS win to Kent State. They gained just 61 yards on 31 attempts for a 1.9 yards-per-rush ratio. Their defense allowed 431 yards to Kent State with 212 on the ground and 219 through the air. So, they were outgained by 151 rushing yards and reflects the fact that Kent State dominated both sides of the line-of-scrimmage. These results sets of EMU in a very poor situation for this matchup against Ball State.

The following betting system underscores teams failure to run the ball and control at least one side of the LOS. The system has earned a 151-89-2 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to be on favorites between 8 and 17.5 points that are facing an opponent that was out-rushed by a minimum of 125 rushing yards in their previous game.

 The machine learning models predict that Ball State will score a minimum of 28 points. In past games dating back to 2010, Ball State is a solid 37-20-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. EMU is 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2010.

Take Ball State as a 4% Best Bet

NFL Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs
8:20 ET, November 8, 2020

5% 10-Star NFL Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Bucs. As a discpline, I always recommend to my clients a maximum wager amount of 5% of your total bankroll. My goal is to maximize my profits over the course of a full season and not depend on one single-game or one weekend. It is a marathon process to be a professional sports bettor. 

 This is a marquee matchup and all my research points to the Bucs. Antonio Brown is the latest edition to a stable of offensive weapons that Brady has at his disposal. Brady has thrown just one interception against 17 TDs and amassed 2,198 passing yards. However, it is the defense that has done their job every week to give Brady good field position in critical situations.

The Bucs defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. My metrics have them clearly the best and significantly ahead of anyone else. The Bucs defensive front seven are difficult for any offensive line to get a push on after the snap. They are incredibly quick and can disguise their stunts and gap assignments as good as if not bnetter than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos schemes.

Brady’s arm is still a gun and I do feel Brees has lost some velocity and it shows on 20 to 30 yards routes. His shoulder has been ailing him and he is listed as probable. He will certainly play in this game. Brady is 5-24 ATS for 58% winning bets playing with same season revenge in his career.

 The machine learning models project that the Bucs will score a minimum of 27 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games when the Bucs have met or exceeded these projection they have earned an outstanding 31-12 SU record and 29-9-5 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

No.1 Clemson vs No. 4 Notre Dame
7:30 PM EST, November 7, 2020

The marquee game of the day pits these two ACC powerhouses against eachother in Southbend, Indiana. This game marks the 39th time that Notre Dame has been installed as a home dog and have earned a 17-22 SU record and 23-16 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 1980. Heach Coach Kelly is 4-2 as a home dog at Notre Dame as the spreadsheet below reveals.

Since 1996, there have been eight games pitting top-5 ranked teams after six or more games have been played. The home dog in these power matchups has gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS for 38% winning bets.

Clemson head coach Swinney is Swinney is 32-13 ATS after two consecutive games where they committed no more than one turnover.

From the machine learning models Clemson is 13-3 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and their rank is higher in the polls than the opponent’s rank. Notre dame is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS for 22% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points to a team ranked higher than them.

Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

4% Best On the Vanderbilt Commodores

Let us start with a tried and true betting system that supports the Commodores and has earned a 62-27 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road underdogs that have allowed 30 or mor epoints in three consecutive games and is facing an opponent coming off a loss of 17 or more points.

Mississippi State has had three consecutive games which they lost the turnover battle. Teams that have an average turnover margin of less than -1 and have had three straight games with a -1 or lower turnover margin are just 64-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

The machine learning models project that M-State will rush for 50 to 115 yards and when they have in past games have been a money-burning 5-15 ATS record for 25% winning bets since 2010. Vanderbilt is 9-2 ATS in road tilts when they have allowed 115 or fewer rushing yards.

Houston Cougars vs Cincinnati Bearcats
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

This 4% bets bet is on the Houston Cougars and consider an alternative betting strategy placing 3% using the line and a 1% amount on the money line. My machine learning models do show a reasonable chance that we could see a headline-making upset. 

This is a matchup in which Cincinnati is in a ‘reversion’ mode meaning their recent performance measures are not sustainable and prone to an average or below-average performance. For instance, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS following three consecutive games allowing an opponent 125 or fewer yards since 1990. 

My machine learning models project that the Cougars will gain at least 135 rushing yards and will have no more than two turnovers and will have fewer turnovers than Cincinnati. In past games in which the Cougars met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to earn a stout 36-4 SU record and 30-9-1 ATS for 77% winning bets that covered by an average of 11.5 points in games played since 2010. 

No 21 Michigan vs. No 11 Indiana
12:00 PM ET, Novem,ber 7, 2020

Indiana is off to a fast and unexpected 2-0 start to the 2020 season. Michigan was shocked by Michigan State, who lost to Rutgers, and annot lose another game before their showdown against Ohio State. Let’s get right to the data points.

Road favorites of not more than seven points that rank lower in the AP poll than their host ranks are 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990 and 7-1 ATS since 2015. Michigan is the team targeted by this database query today.

Indiana is just 3-18 ATS coming off a game in which they covered the spread as a double-digit favorite since 1990.

From my machine learning summaries, Michigan is expected to gain 200 or more rushing yards and outgain Indiana by a minimum of 100 total offensive yards. In past games, in which Michigan met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 49-0 SU and 34-15 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1990 and 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS since 2015. Take the Michigan Wolverines as a Best Bet Titan.

(301) Green Bay Packers vs (302) San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM EST, November 5, 2020

4% TNF Best Bet Titan on the SF 49ers getting 7.5 points. No matter the line movement ahead of game-time, this will be a valid best bet.

The 49ers are descimated by a multitude of injuries and now the COVID-19 has hit the team with many offensive players infected and quarantined. Despite the physical injuries, the 49ers have been able to grind their way to a 4-4 SU record led by a powerful ground attack. Nick Mullins will start at QB in place of Garropolo, who is out with an injured ankle. He will be handing the ball off early and often against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season.

The Packers rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry and rank 23rd with az 26% blitz percentage on the season. Mullins and the 49ers offense will be successful in the ground attack and will have short yardage third down situations that have high percentages to convert and move the chains. The Packers are vulnerable with deep over-the-top routes and I do believe you will see Mullins throwing long down field passes when the safeties are forced to be at the line-of-scrimmage to help stop the ground attack.

RB Jerick McKinnon will be the featured back and will be a go-to receiver in the flat where he can catch the ball in space. He is fourth on the team with 29 targets catching 21 balls for a 7.5 yards-per-catch average.

My machine learning models project that the 49ers will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and have an advantage of at least 5 minutes in time-of-possession. In past games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 43-2 SU record for 96% wins and a 36-8-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2005.

Bet the 49ers as a 4% Best Bet Titan tonight.

(255) New England vs (256) Buffalo
1:00 ET, November 1, 2020

4% Best Bet on the New England Patriots

I will start with an excellent betting system from my vast database that has earned a 29-6 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are four requirements.

1.       Bet on any team regardless of the betting line.

2.       Team is averaging 5.5 to 5.9 Yards-per-play (YPPL).

3.       Opponent is below average defense allowing a minimum of 5.75 YPPL.

4.       Opponent is coming off a game where the opponent gained a minimum of 100 more total offensive yards.

Coach Belichick is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS having lost three consecutive games SU and ATS in his career. Moreover, he is 10-3 ATS following a three-game ATS losing streak and 12-6-1 ATS when having lost three or more consecutive games ATS in his career.

Coach Belichick is 42-28-2 ATS for 60% wins facing a divisional foe and total lined at no higher than 42 points; 19-6 ATS for 76% following a double-digit loss and the opponent scored 30 or more points.

135 Ohio State Buckeyes vs 136 Penn State Nittany Lions
7:30 PM EST, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Big Ten Upset Alert on the Lions + 12

Big Thanks go out to Johnny Detroit of WagerTalk and Sportsmemo for giving me the opportunity to join the best assembly of sports handicappers on the planet. Some of these veterans I have known since my internet start back in 1997, so it is an honor for me to be part of this winning team.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off on eof the most bizarre games in recent seasons. They outgained the Indiana Hoosiers, but still lost in overtime on a controversial 2-point conversion that was awarded to the Hoosiers and ended the game 36-35. The Lions were quite rusty and made far too many mental mistakes so it the last play of the game was not the reason they lost the game. Murphy’s Law was certainly on the Lions side of theledge while the Luck of the Irish was on the Hoosiers.

The betting lineopened with the Buckeyes installed as 10.5-point road favorites. The line has since moved to -12.5-points as offered at Caesars, currently, and more than 90% of the bets have been on Ohio State. I expect this vastly lop-sided betting flow will find an equilibrium in the 13 to 13.5-point range as game time approaches. One way to bet this game is place 50% of a 4%-bet amount now and then steadily add 0.25% amount with each ½-point rise in the line. Scaling in your bet in a game where the consensus betting flows overwhelmingly favor the opponent is always a wise choice.

Justin Field and the Buckeyes team performed as expected after a slow start. The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a game plan not to get beat over the top last week. They had their corners, especially on the far side of the field, seven or more yards off the line-of-scrimmage (LOS). So, they simply dared Fields to throw the field side out route, which few College level QBs can make since it is a 30 to 35 yard horizontal high-risk pass. The pass must be thrown hard and accurate.

I past seasons the Michigan Wolverine’s press defense has been obliterated every year by the Buckeye offense. Truly, the only style of defense that is ewffective against he Buckeyes spread offense that features many variations of crossing routes, is the zone-blitz scheme. Guess, who has been usig that scheme the past few seasons? If Parsons, who is arguably the best defensive player in the nation, was in the lineup, this line would be 10-points. Still, the Lions are quite deep at the linebacker position and stronmgly believe they will be highly effective against the Buckeyes offense.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 29-11-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and has four requirements.

1.       Bet on home underdogs.

2.       The game is a matchup of conference foes.

3.       The home dog is coming off a loss of installed as a road favorite of 6 or more points.

4.       The opponent is coming off a home win of 17 or more points.

I run machine learning models that provide a glimpse at what the final box score may look like if the predictions go our way. When we lose a bet these predictions serve to show we lost the bet too.   

The models project that the Lions will gain at least 200 rushing yards, score 28 or more points, and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Buckeyes. In past games in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has produced an outstanding 32-0 SU record and a 27-4 ATS mark for 87% winning bets. Take Penn State and enjoy takig the generous amount of points.                                                                                                             

(123) Notre Dame vs (124) Georgia Tech
3:30 ET, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Best Bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 points and is valid up to -22.5 points

 My machine learning models suggest that this is a major mismatch on both sides of the ball. The models project that the Irish will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and score a minimum of 28 points. The following table shows the SU and ATS results for each of these parameters and then combined for when the Irish have met or exceeded these performance measures.

 Irish records since 2010

Team

Scoring >=28

Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Irish

67-12 SU + 53-25 ATS 68%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

22-1 SU + 18-5 ATS for 78%

Yellow Jackets since 2010

Team

Allowing Scoring >=28

Allowing Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Yellow Jackets

11-48 SU + 13-44-2 ATS 23%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

2-8 SU + 0-10 ATS for 0%

So, you can see that any one of the two or both combined produce favorable results for the Irish and a winning bet. Based on my predictive power ratings, the Irish are a 29-point favorite in this game.

 For the season, the Irish are average a solid 12.3 yards-per-point. The lower the value the better and more efficient the offense is when looking at offensive yards-per-point. The models project that the Irish will post an offensive yards-per-point metric between 10 and 12 in this game. Note, that the Irish are 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have posted a yards-per-point reading between 10 and 12. Take the Irish.

(137) Memphis Tigers vs. (138) Cincinnati Bearcats
Noon ET, October 31, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Memphis Tigers +6.5 points and is valid down to an including +4 points.

 Quarterback Brady White and the Memphis Tigers will travel to Nippert Stadium to take on the No 7 Cincinnati Bearcats in a showdown of American Conference teams. White has been solid completing 107 of his 165 pass attempts for 1,375 yards including 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers have faced far better competition than the Bearcats, who have faced Austin Peay, Army, and American conference foes South Florida and SMU. The Bearcats man-handled No 22 SMU in a 42-13 road win and covered the number as 1.5-point dogs. With a Tiger win over the Bearcats, they are in position to run the table to end the season 8-1 and would have the tie-breaker over the Bearcats.

 This betting system supports the Tigers and has earned a 57-36-2 ATS record good for 61.3% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on non-ranked road underdogs of 3.5 or more points for their first five games of the season anmd are facing a ranked conference foe.

 Here is a second betting system that support the Tigers and underscores their underrated ground attack. The system has earned a 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requirements are to be on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in game of strong rushing teams averaging 200 to 235 rushing yards-per-game and with the ranked opponent coming off a game in which they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Now you can see the upset alert.

(117) Kansas State vs (118) West Virginia
Noon ET, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Best Bet on Kansas State +6 points and is valid down to +4

 West Virginia’s QB Jarrett Doege leads the B-12 conference with 127 completions, 4th with a 64% pass completions, and third with 1389 passing yards on the season. The offense is scoring 32.3 PPG, but is struggling to run the ball. The lack of a solid ground attack will give the K-State defense the luxury of not having to bring the safeties up to the line of scrimmage. The K-State defense can then mix quarters, man, underneath man coverages with help from the safeties in deep post and crossing routes. Doege is going to struggle against the K-State defense.

 This betting system has earned a solid 100-49-3 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and has three requirements.

1.       Play on a road team.

2.       The home team is coming off a conference loss by 7 or fewer points.

3.       Both teams are winning 60% to 80% of their games on the season.

Take Kansas State.

(101) Atlanta Falcons vs. (102) Carolina Panthers
8:20 PM EST, October 29, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Falcons +2 1/2 and is valid bet down to and including pick-em

Since 1995, these two divisional rivals have met 51 times, with the Falcons earning a 32-19 SU record and 29-18-4 ATS mark for 62% winning bets. In the last meeting, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 as 2-point road underdogs and ended a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Falcons. The Falcons are above average on offense and below on defense. The opposite is true for the Panthers.

The Falcons are playing better football on both sides of the ball despite their losing record. For the season, they have a -3.3 average scoring differential and +3.0 over their last three games. On the season, the Falcons defense is allowing 29.6 PPG, but a much improved 23.0 PPG over their last three games. The offense has remained consistent throughout this most recent stretch matching all of the significant season-to-date ratios and metrics. The Falcons play fast, averaging 70.6 plays from scrimmage for the season, 70.7 over the last three games, and 73 in road games. So, the Panthers defense will be challenged to contain the Falcons fast-paced offense for 60 minutes.

My machine learning models provide a glimpse at what the final box may read. The Falcons are projected to score a minimum of 24 points and post an offensive yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 12. The more efficient an offense is, the lower the yards-per-point rate because it takes fewer yards to gain to put one point on the scoreboard. In past road games in which the Falcons have met or exceeded these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 10-2 SU record and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. Over the last three seasons, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS under these measures.

Chicago Bears vs. LA Rams
8:20 PM EST, October 26, 2020

10-Star NFL Game of the Month

The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina.

My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team.

The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles.

The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns.

The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless.

The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.

Nick Foles has not set the world on fire since taking over the starting QB position from the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky. His QBR is lower than Trubisky, but Foles wins. Just as he did in the 2016 regular season and culminating in the Super Bowl Championship and an MVP award for the Philadelphia Eagles. I am not suggesting a futures bet just yet on the Bears, but they are a united offensive unit when he is on the field, and Foles somehow makes the entire team better.

Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games.

From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points.

Take the Bears and the points.

Tampa Bay vs Las Vegas Raiders
4:05 PM EST

4% NFL Best Bet Titan on the Las Vegas Raiders

Let us start with a proven and simple money-making system that has earned an outstanding 102-61-4 ATS for 63% winning bets since 1989 and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on home teams facing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a winning record on the season. The Bucs are off the big home upset win over Green Bay last week and now are on the road to face a Raiders team off the BYE.

The following historical precedents match the machine learning projections for this game. So, the Raiders are 16-2 SU and 167-1-1 ATS in home games in which they passed for a minimum of 7.25 yards-per-pass, and will have the better (lower value) yards-per-point ratio since 2010. Usig the same performance measures and filtering only games that Jon Gruden has coached in his career gives us a 5-0 SU ATS record that covered the spread by an average 12 points.

 Green Bay vs Houston
1:00 PM EST, October 25, 2020

4% Best Bet Titan on the Texans

A 4% isa equivalent to a 7-star and represents 4% of your bankroll. As a serious discipline, never go over the 5% level, which is reserved for the 10-star releases I have released for the last two decades.

When things look too good to be true they often are. This game has a 4-win Packers team favored by just a field goal against a 1-win Texans team and looks initially to be not near enough points. This betting system supports the Texans and has earned an outstanding 41-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over he last 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a below-average defense forcing an average of less than one turnmover-per-game and are coming off a game where they had a turnover margin of -2.

Fron the machine learning models, the Texans are projected to gain six or more total yards-per-play and their defense will force a minimum of at least two turnovers. In past games, in which the Texans met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them a remarkable 19-3 SU record and 15-7 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2000; 8-3 ATS in home games and covering by an average of 8.8 points.

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST, October, 25, 2020

4% Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals’ inconsistent play has led to many different types of losses this season. At 1-4-1 straight-up (SU), the hope of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2015 has vanished. Head coach Zac Taylor has won 3 of his first 22 games but faces a team he defeated. The Bengals are playing better than expectations, though, posting a 4-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season.

The Second Meeting in the Battle of Ohio

In Week 2, the Browns defeated the Bengals 35-30 but failed to cover the spread by the slimmest of margins as 5.5-point home favorites. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrows completed 37 passes on 61 attempts for 315 passing yards, including three touchdowns without an interception. Burrows threw a meaningless touchdown to wide receiver Tyler Boyd with 0:48 seconds left in the game to earn the back-door cover.

The Bengals are a solid bet when having the same season revenge against the AFC North. Since 2000, the Bengals are 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets in the second meeting of the season against the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns, and Baltimore Ravens) after losing the first meeting. Of these 34 second meetings, 14 of them were against the Browns. The Bengals are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets playing with same season revenge against the Browns.

There is a money line betting system that supports the Bengals and puts the Browns on Upset Alert status. The system has three requirements and has earned a 71-48 SU record over the last ten seasons.

Bet on any team on the money line when:

1.       The opponent averages a minimum of 4.5 yards-per-rush.

2.The opponent is coming off a game gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards.

From the machine learning models the following metrics are based on the proejctions detailed. The Bengals are a solid 28-6 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play and gained a minimum of 325 total offensive yards in games played since 2010.

Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh
3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020

7-Star Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Pitt Panthers

This Irish team has many uncertainties and is highly suspect based onmy research. Irish love to run the ball, but will be going against on eof the best defensive fronts in the nation. Pitt matches extremely well against the Irish and this is a game that Pitt can win outright.

The line has been static all week, but the total has crashed down from an opening of 48.5 points to the current level of 43.5 points. This is a rare occurrence and brings even greater value to Pitt plus the 9.5 points. The implied final score is an Irish 27-17. The opening line had an implied final of an Irish 29-20 win. So, this shows that Pitt can score fewer points with a total this much lower than the opening and cover the spread.

Pitt has an underrated defensive unit and note that Irish are a money-burning 14-17 SU and 11-20 ATS for 36% when facing a team that allows an average of 285 offensive yards.

From the machine learning models, Pitt is predicted to average a minimum of 7.5 yards-per-pass attempt and will hold the Irish to less than 200 passing yards. When Pitt has met or exceeded these performance measures they are 25-10 SU and 21-11-1 ATS 67% winning bets and 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2010.

Iowa State vs Oklahoma State

3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020
FOX

7-Star Titan on the Iowa State Cyclones

This betting system supports the Cyclones and works against the Cowboys earning a solid 34-8 ATS record for 81% winning bets since 2015. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on underdogs between 3 and 9 points.

2.       That are facing a host that is allowing 8 or fewer first-half points-per-game

3.       The host has scored 20 or more points in the first half in each of their last two games.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Cyclones are an outstanding 12-1 ATS mark, good for 92% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 24 or more points, having the same or fewer turnovers, and installed as a road dog against a conference foe.

No 8 Penn State vs Indiana Hoosiers
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN

3:30 PM EST, October 24th, 2020

The Lions have won 22 of the previous 23 meetings with the Hoosiers by an average score of 35-21 since 1993. However, the Lions betting record is 12-10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets.

The Hoosiers only win this series was a 44-24 win and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since that win, the Hoosiers have lost the last six games and have posted a 2-3-1 ATS mark.

The last two games have been highly competitive between these programs. In 2018, the Lions clawed their way to a 33-28 win but failed to cover the number as 14-point favorites in Bloomington. In 2019, the Lions hosted the Hoosiers in Happy Valley and had another challenging contest escaping with a 34-27 win but failed to cover the spread as 14-point favorites. So, the short betting line for this matchup is not a surprise given the recent history between these programs.

The Lions are a definite contender for the College Football Playoff (CFP) this season. Like the previous five seasons in the B-10’s East Division, the first step along the CFP path for the Lions will lead through the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines.

Currently, in the East Division, the Buckeyes are the favorites with futures odds of -200. The Lions find themselves in second place in the futures standings and are getting +350 at many sportsbooks. The Wolverines are in third and are getting +450 in the futures market. So, those futures lines reflect how much better the Buckeyes are than the Lions and Wolverines. Despite this fact, betting the Lions to win the East Division is a strong wager to make.

The Buckeyes project to be an excellent team, but upsets frequently occur in college football. The Lions returns 15 starters from a team that went 11-2 straight-up (SU), 7-6 ATS, and finished at No 9 in the final AP Top 25 poll. Eight of those starters are on offense, including quarterback Sean Clifford, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and four-of-five offensive linemen. The team elected eight captains in Clifford, Freiermuth, center Michal Menet, defensive end Shaka Toney, safety Lamont Wade, linebacker Jesse Luketa, safety Jonathan Sutherland, and punter/kicker Jordan Stout. The Lions possess excellent team leadership, experience, and talent that makes them a contender to win the Big Ten Conference this season.

The machine learning models have many projections using several performance measures that overwhelmingly favor the Lions to win this matchup by double-digits.

The Lions have one of the most balanced and explosive offensives in the nation. They are expected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of 6.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. In previous home games installed as favorites and meeting these measures has earned the Lions a perfect 11-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS mark for 82% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points as a Best Bet.

Tulsa vs South Florida

7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

This betting system supports Tulsa and has earned a solid 82-41 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on road favorites between 10 and 20 points

2.       Facing a host with a struggling defense allowing 31 or more PPG

3.       and after two games in which 60 or more points were scored by both teams in each game.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. Tulsa is an outstanding 42-4 SU record and 33-12-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points installed as a road favorite and 5-0 ATS since 2016.