The Miami Heat, after opening a 2-0 series lead over the Charlotte Hornets, have dropped 3 straight games, and face elimination in game 6 in Charlotte. The Heat have been unable to solve the Hornet's swarming defensive efforts, and have shot 42% or less in the last 3 games, after coming into game 3 having shot 42% or better in 14 of 15. The Heat are also turning the ball over way too much losing the turnover battle 45-24 in the 3 losses. Charlotte has been at their best defensively at home as a favorite, vs good teams, and it has led to a 0-9 O/U mark on the season when playing as a home favorite vs a team that has a winning percentage of greater than .530. The average points scored in these games is 178.7ppg. Miami has really struggled offensively in the opposite role, as a road dog. Miami is 3-15 O/U on the season as a road dog to a total of less than 202. The total points scored in those games has been 188.4ppg. I also have a playoff situation based in part on a closeout game, off of a series of under games prior. That situation is 10-48 O/U, and active tonight as well, and has beaten the total offered by 11.55ppg in the 58 previous contests. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 47-10 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Atlanta Hawks opened up a 2-0 lead in their first round series with Boston. The shooting in this series for the most part has been awful with Boston shooting 38.6% and 27.2% from deep, and Atlanta just 40.6% and just 30% from deep. The series has seen 3 of the 4 games go under the total, but this one will be different. The odds makers have been forced to hold the total down, especially after last game which went under, despite going to overtime. the fact is, this has been a race horse paced series. There has been an average of 180 shots, 66 from deep. Past games that show an average of over 170 shots, and more than 61 three's have played over 12 of 16 times, and the pace warranted a total of 207, but they scored 216 on average. Make the play on the over.

While this series has produced less than 80 points in 2 games for Dallas in this series, the result was not a half-court slowdown type of game, that would often lead to those numbers, it has been anomalous poor shooting that has created the numbers. This in itself adds value, to what should be an extremely high scoring game 5. It is also being played to a total that has been held down by the "false" results. let's take a deep look at what has happened here. These teams are averaging 164 shots per game, 48 attempted 3 pointers, and 53 free throw attempts. let's break those numbers down historically in the NBA playoffs.

1)  SHOT ATTEMPTS

AVG  164  (this series)

NBA playoff games with greater than 160 shot attempts have gone 225-187-5 O/U  54.6%, and 174-137-3 O/U with 164 or more attempted 55.9%

2)  THREE PT ATTEMPTS

AVG  48   (this series)

NBA playoff games with greater than 45 three point attempts are 236-204-6 ATS 53.6% O/U

3)  THREE PT FG MADE:

AVG  16 (this series)

NBA playoff games with more than 15 made 3pt FG's are 216-121-6  O/U  64.1% and 391-281-12 O/U 58.2% if 12 or more are made.

4) FREE THROW ATTEMPTS:

AVG  53  (this series)

NBA playoff games with 50 or more free throws attempted are 364-239-9 O/U  60.4%  O/U

FINALLY:

If one of the 4 above things happens, the OVER becomes likely in and of itself, and all 4 are taken from a lower number than the average of this series!

If FG attempts are greater than 160 (164 avg this series), and made 3's are 12 or more (16 avg this series), and free throw attempts are 50 or more(53 avg this series0, we get an off the charts 108-43 O/U result in past playoff games 71.5%. The average total in those games was 203.8ppg, and points scored were 216.7ppg. That is a 13ppg margin using numbers that are 25% less than the average produced in this series so far. The bottom line is the pace of the games has proven this total very worthy with lots of value. My NBA PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This game fits a situation which is 277-172 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 238-150 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 276-158 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This series was projected to be up and down the court, and the game 1 total projected just that with a closing total of 225. That eroded after a lackluster game 1 performance that saw the total come up very short. Game 2 saw odds makers shave 14 points off the total and the game went over. Now they have bumped the total by 4 points or so, as the series heads to Houston. The pace however remains high octane with an average of 167.5 shots per game, despite a lot of free throws (60 per game). Both teams have put up a total of 48 from long range. Those numbers based on the team's average percentage, combined with defensive stats of their opponent, would show a true total of 216.5ppg, so there is a couple of points worth of line value. The true value comes from the home vs road numbers of these teams, and without getting into great detail, they suggest an additional 4.5 points, offering a clear value on over the total. That combined with a propensity of past playoff games that saw a same series decline in the closing total of 10 points or more from game 1 to game 3 (venue change), to play well over 60% to the over, cements the deal. Make the play on the over.

From game 1:

The Miami Heat really struggled on offense for much of the season. They were dependent on a strong defense to carry the load. It was time for a change, and the Heat turned up the tempo along about February 8th. prior to that date through 52 games, the Heat were 16-35 O/U, averaging 95.9ppg and allowing 95.9ppg. That was the turning point as over their last 30 games they scored 107.2ppg, allowing 102.7ppg. Charlotte was similar from that exact same date, averaging 101ppg through 2/7 and 106.3ppg from that point on. The total has not caught up to these teams yet.

Nothing has changed in my estimation, as game 1 went over, and the total remains static. The pace of game 1 was slowed by free throws, which saw 58 attempted, but that stops the clock and allows points to be scored. despite a blowout, which typically lowers scoring, the game went well over the total. Playoff games immediately following a team that scored more than 110 points at home playing the same team at home again are 31-17 O/U, including 10-4 O/U in round 1. Looking for this one to once again top the 200 point, in fact my model projects 206.5 points, so plenty of value remains. Make the play on the over.

This total has come down a full 7 points or so vs the opener, that played out a lot more low scoring than expected. It has forced the odds makers hands, and they have made an adjustment, but is it enough? No team wants to try and play a fast full court game in the playoffs against Golden St. Golden St. is also a much better defensive team than they get credit for. Looking back at playoff games originating in the 2013 season, played at Golden St., the Warriors are 2-13 O/U. They are a sexy over play by the public, because they are thought of as a scoring machine, but that has not been true in the playoffs. Since the opening of the 2013 season, Golden St. has averaged 111.4ppg at home, but just 101.9ppg in the playoffs. They allow just 93.3ppg in the playoffs compared to 99.3ppg in the regular season. Combined they are 15.5ppg lower scoring in the post-season at home, so the 7 point adjustment may look huge, but it is far from enough. I also have a situation where the Warriors are 2-17 O/U at home in all playoff games. There is another situation that qualifies here that is 99-147 O/U in the regular season, including 2-10 O/U in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

The Miami Heat really struggled on offense for much of the season. They were dependent on a strong defense to carry the load. It was time for a change, and the Heat turned up the tempo along about February 8th. prior to that date through 52 games, the Heat were 16-35 O/U, averaging 95.9ppg and allowing 95.9ppg. That was the turning point as over their last 30 games they scored 107.2ppg, allowing 102.7ppg. Charlotte was similar from that exact same date, averaging 101ppg through 2/7 and 106.3ppg from that point on. The total has not caught up to these teams yet, and this game also fits a 34-10 O/U situation. Make the play on the over.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

These teams played some high scoring games during the regular season, as they combined to average 213 points per game. Now we take a look at the odds maker and he says this game will come up well short of that number, in fact almost 10 points short. That sure makes it enticing to give a strong look to the over, but the fact is, these are the playoffs. last year the NBA had an average total of 200.1ppg and the playoffs average total was 201.3ppg. Surprisingly higher. So why then are the odds makers dropping this one nearly a full 10 points from regular season results? For starters Boston's road totals vs .550 teams or better show 203ppg. Atlanta at home vs .550 or better teams have seen 200ppg scored. I see some line value here. The Hawks are also 23-5 to the under since 2008 in a playoff game at home vs a team better than .550. This game also fits a situation which is 211-143 to the under, including 19-12 in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

The Toronto Raptors are one of just six teams that held opponents to less than 100ppg this season, and the Pacers were not far behind allowing 100.5ppg. The Pacers offense has struggled on the road down the stretch, failing to score 100 points in any of their last 3 road games, and averaging less than 100 on the road in their last 12 on the road. The fact is, the Pacers have the lowest scoring average of any NBA team when it comes to the playoffs where they average 87.3ppg in their last 37 playoff games, on the road, and have allowed jut 92.1ppg. This game also fits a playoff situation which is 55-34 to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 89-50 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which fits a situation which is 214-145 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 93-53  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 140-94  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 125-85  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 59-24  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 24-0-1  ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 125-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 60-23 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 211-139 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 192-146 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 124-82 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 92-53 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 82-43 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 502-394 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 123-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 502-394 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 123-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 61-32 ATS, and the pay is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 51-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 139-94 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 175-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-31 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 67-29 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 180-113 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 82-45 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 55-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Philadelphia 76ers have a storied and successful history as a franchise, but none of that has been achieved lately. They have not won 50 games in a season since 2002, and their last 3 make it tough to be a Sixer's fan, as they have compiled a woeful 46-190 SU record, with just 9 of the wins coming this season. The biggest problem in an era where NBA scoring is way up the Sixers score just 96.2ppg on the road. I think the total is way over done here, as it is the highest total the Sixers will have played to on the road since March 14th of the 2013 season! History also is on their side as this game fits a totals situation that has seen the under play out to a 72-31 mark, including a stellar 11-2 mark this season. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation which is 180-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 72-31 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 137-93 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 97-55 ATS, and the play is on the under.

I don't think there is a magic number when it comes to betting situations, but in the case of the triple 55's it tends to fit the equation for today's situation. Today in the newsletter we will offer what we call our triple 55's total betting system that has been long on beating NBA totals since 1996. It has yielded 60% winners with over 300 games in the data set, so we certainly have proven that it works. let's get right down to the numbers, and they all revolve around 55:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Winning percentage is greater than 55

3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55.

4)  Division game.

This situation has blasted the books to the tune of a:

122-184-6 O/U mark, or 60.1% winners on the under.

That will be put to the test tonight. Make the play on the under in this contest.

The Philadelphia 76ers have benefitted by their poor performances the last 2 years to be drafting in the lottery position of the 1st round. Despite all that, they are going backward at 9-62 on the season. That brings their record to 46-189 since the start of the 2013 season, with no end to the losing in sight. The Nuggets won 59 games 4 years ago, but have not made the playoffs since, and are struggling in their own rite. These teams both have key contributors missing tonight, with Gallinari sitting for the Nuggets and Okafor for the 76ers. That should make offense a bit tougher, and the fact that both teams could be sniffing a rare win, the defensive intensity should be enough to hold the scoring down. Top that off with the fact that this game fits a situation that is 71-31 ATS to the under, and the total looks like a solid play. Make the play on the under.

The Spurs playing at home off a loss have been dialed in on defense, as they have allowed opponents just 85.6ppg in these games, and this game also fits a situation that is 885-748 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Magic has not been a good defensive team this season, but what they have done over their last 11 games is put a lot more effort into that end of the floor. The Magic have played 8 of their last 11 to the under, and I think the fact that Detroit has allowed 50% or better shooting in each of their last 3 will be better focused on the back end of the court tonight as well. This game also fits a situation that is 91-52  ATS to the under, and active tonight. Make the play on the under.

I don't think there is a magic number when it comes to betting situations, but in the case of the triple 55's it tends to fit the equation for today's situation. Today in the newsletter we will offer what we call our triple 55's total betting system that has been long on beating NBA totals since 1996. It has yielded 60% winners with over 300 games in the data set, so we certainly have proven that it works. let's get right down to the numbers, and they all revolve around 55:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Winning percentage is greater than 55

3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55.

4)  Division game.

This situation has blasted the books to the tune of a:

122-184-6 O/U mark, or 60.1% winners on the under.

That will be put to the test tonight. Make the play on the under in this contest.

I think the intensity will be high here, and the scoring lower than expected, and in fact this game fits a situation that is 175-111 ATS to the under, and all things considered the total looks to be too high for this tilt. Make the play on the under.

Scoring is way up in the NBA this season, but that has not stopped the Miami defense. They are 1 of just 6 NBA teams that allow less than 100 points a game, as they are #4 in fewest points aloowed this season. The problem for the Heat is they also score less than 100ppg as they rank #23 in the NBA in that department. I trust teams that play defense to control the tempo of the game, as Miami prefers the half-court game, and their 40-29 record on the season compared to the .377 winning percentage of the Pelicans indicates they should be in control tonight. This game fits a situation that plays under the total to a 34-10 ATS mark when one of the teams has been playing over the total in 6 straight games or more, along with a couple other factors. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Boston Celtics after posting 14 straight wins at home, have now dropped their last 2 at the Garden. The dominating feature of their 14 game home winning streak was not the offense, it was a defense that held 7 of the 14 opponents to under 100 points, one of which was this Magic team that scored just 94. This might be the place to bring the defense again as the Magic have failed to top the 100 point mark in 4 of their last 5 road games, and overall have played 7 of their last 10 to the under. Boston may be helped by the fact thet this game fits a situation which is 70-21 ATS, including 9-2 ATS this year, that plays on certain teams to play a low scoring game. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation which is 121-77 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 271-153 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 271-153 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 151-84, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 62-28 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 62-28 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 49-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 177-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 91-51 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Today will be the first time this late season NBA totals situation will have occurred. It kicks in at game 56. It follows the premise that no two teams know each other better than division rivals, and when you put together a pair of division rivals, that are both playoff caliber, the intensity rivals that of a playoff game. This is a very logical, and yet simple situation, one that kicks in late in the year, as we have a pair of teams jockeying for playoff position, as well as perhaps the division crown. Let's take a look at the parameters of this situation, which has a lot of plays:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Division game

3) Both teams are greater than .550

That gives us 121-183-6  O/U  or 60.2% winners on the under.

Tonight consider Miami and Charlotte to duel it out in a low scoring game, that fails to reach the total.

This game fits a situation which is 62-27 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 881-742 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 881-742 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 61-27 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 879-742 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game has an extremely high total, and I don't think New Orleans is not going to try and get into a track meet here against a Golden St. team that plays that game much better. Their best chance is in the half-court, and look for extended possessions by the Pelicans here. This game also fits a strong total under indicator, that has been 61-26 ATS in the last 20 years in the NBA, as it doesn't come up often, but when it does, it usually is very predictive. Make the play on the under.

I  like the under in this contest, as the last 6 meetings between these clubs have produced 1 game that has topped this total, and overall have averaged just a combined total of 211.5ppg. Minnesota has been in the 90s in their last 2 games, while winning one of them, and the Suns have failed to reach the century mark in 4 of their last 7. This game also fits a situation, based in part, on 2 bad teams, that is 44-18 to the under. Make the play on the under

The Knicks unlike a lot of NBA teams have scoring numbers that closely match up be it at home or away. The Knicks problem has been a struggling offense, one that averages less than 100ppg on the season, while the defense has been good enough to win. Lately the Knicks have become an under team at 1-7 O/U in their last 8. The Lakers are a team lacking any offensive firepower themselves, as they average less than 100ppg as well, and have also become an under team of late at 2-5 O/U in their last 7. This game presents a rare opportunity to both teams that think they can bag a win, so defense should play a stronger role in this game. Make the play on the under.

The Milwaukee Bucks appeared to be a team on the rise a year ago and made the playoffs, but have been disappointing this season as they have fallen off, in a tougher, and more competitive NBA East. The scoring is up in the league, but the Bucks offense hasn't kept pace and averages under 100ppg. Brooklyn, after a playoff appearance a year ago has fallen hard and fast and comes into this game at just 18-47 on the season, and their 97.6ppg is even worse than that of the Bucks. The Nets have failed to produce 100 points in a game 34 times on the season. The Bucks however have been even worse, producing less than the century mark 36 times. The Bucks have faced 14 teams on the season that were below .500 coming into the game, and are 3-11 O/U in the 14 games, with the total points scored at an average of just 187. nets 5-9 O/U vs less than .500 teams with scoring at 193ppg. Make the play on the under.

This is a big game in the sense that both these clubs are scrambling for playoff position, and are seperated by a scant 1.5 games in the standings, so I expect a playoff like atmosphere here with a lot of intensity on the defensive end. That has been the calling card for much of the season for the Atlanta Hawks who are 27-37-2 O/U on the year allowing less than 100 points a contest. The Hawks already appear to be in playoff mode, as scoring in their games has dropped dramatically in their last 9, with a combined average of 189.1ppg, limiting opponents to 91.1ppg, and 1-8 O/U. The Pacers have been 3-6 O/U in their last 9 road games, and with a lot riding on this game expect the defenses to prevail here. Make the play on the under.

This is a big game in the sense that both these clubs are scrambling for playoff position, and are seperated by a scant 1.5 games in the standings, so I expect a playoff like atmosphere here with a lot of intensity on the defensive end. That has been the calling card for much of the season for the Atlanta Hawks who are 27-37-2 O/U on the year allowing less than 100 points a contest. The Hawks already appear to be in playoff mode, as scoring in their games has dropped dramatically in their last 9, with a combined average of 189.1ppg, limiting opponents to 91.1ppg, and 1-8 O/U. The Pacers have been 3-6 O/U in their last 9 road games, and with a lot riding on this game expect the defenses to prevail here. Make the play on the under.

This looks to be the best matchup of the day, as the Cleveland Cavs head to LA to take on the Clippers. One thing that has held this LA Clipper's team back the past couple of years has been the lack of effort on the defensive end, but this team has grown up a lot allowing 98.8ppg, and have good recent marks, as they have held 6 of their last 14 opponents to under 40% shooting, and have been particularly strong on the defensive end of the court of late at home, allowing just 94ppg in their last 6. LA has been very strong at home in games vs teams over .600 (outside of Golden St.), as the other 9 teams have managed just 96.4ppg against them. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation which is 57-17 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 80-44 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 873-751 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 873-751 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 134-91 ATS, and the play is on the under.

I mentioned in a recent newsletter how the scoring has gone up in the NBA over the last 5 years or so. Today in the newsletter we will look at a game with a very high total, the type of games that the over tending public usually ignores because it always looks intimidating and hard to beat. That isn't always the case, as we shall see below.

This tends to require a team playing well, winning their last game big, but at the same time, playing at a fast pace, or over-achieving offensively, or both. The defensive numbers, or lack thereof, is the key to this one, especially when we have an opponent that isn't very well rested. Let's take a look at the parameters:

1)  Total is 210 or higher

2)  Team won last game by 15 or more points

3) team also has allowed 100+ points in at least 4 straight games.

4)  Opponent is on 1 day of rest or less.

These teams have really played pinball machine games on the scoreboard, with the total results showing:

80-43-2 O/U  65% winners! 

These high totals sure have lived up to the billing!

Consider Boston/Houston over the total tonight.

This game fits a situation which is 877-737 ATS, and the play is on the under.

There is value in a substantially high total when a bad defensive team is coming off a big blowout loss. Today in the newsletter we will hone in on such teams, with an application on tonight's short NBA card. When you have a bad defensive team coming in off a huge blowout loss, the "fix" is not in, as they tend to go right back to their ole defense. the fact is the setting provided below shows that they allow over 108ppg in such situations. The problem however is we are dealing with totals of a substantial nature, those 209 points or higher, and while the "fix" may not be in, the odds makers have surely added a "fix" of their own, and these games struggle to get to the posted total, bad unfixed defense or not. Let's take a look at the parameters:

1)  Total is 209 or higher

2)  Team allows 103ppg or more on the season

3)  Team is off a loss of 20+ points.

That all steers one to the over, but the odds makers have taken notice, and most of the games simply don't get there, as the total is:

91-131-5 O/U  40.6%!  That means the under is 59.4% in these contests, as the odds makers pack on the points.

Consider the under in the Phoenix v Denver game on tonight's card.

The Golden St. Warriors have the best offense the NBA has seen in years. Recently, they have not been winning by large margins as they were earlier in the season. The numbers certainly show why, but also you must take in consideration that Golden St. played just 2 home games the entire month of February! The offense is a scoring machine at home, and one reason for the decline in big margins is the fact that the defense has been taking on water since Christmas Day. Golden St. has played 8 games this season at home seeing the total points scored between both teams come in at less than 210 total points, ALL 8 WERE FROM CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEFORE. Since that time, Golden St. has not played a single game that saw both clubs score 209 points or less, and now to expand upon the reason. remember, these are home gams we are talking about. Christmas Day and before saw the average score of their games at home at 112.1 to 95.4. Since that has risen to 117.5 to 104.8. The already elite offense has gotten better, while the defense has gone from 95.4 to 104.8! That is almost 10 points a game worse, a significant change. The Warriors have scored 109 or more points in all home games since X-Mas Day, Utah is strong defensively, but only because they try to play in the half-court, and that has not stopped good offenses on the road:

Cleveland   118
Sacramento  114
SA          118
SA          123
Port        115

I also have a totals situation which is 172-112 ATS active on the over here. Think this is one of the biggest bargains of the year, and hence, my NBA Total of the Year is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 171-112 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 874-735 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 874-735 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 874-735 ATS, and the play is on the under.