The Toronto Raptors are a mess. They are of limited talent, have a lot of injuries, and play little if any defense. Last night they allowed 138 at Golden St. putting the defenseless team at 125ppg allowed over their last 3. Their 15 games against losing teams not played on their own court this year show them allowing 111.4ppg. The Clippers are 26-9 to the over vs the East in their last 35, including 10-1 over vs the NBA Atlantic, and 19-9 to the over on 0 rest. This game also has a situation based on 2 bad teams under certain conditions that has been one of my top total systems. It is 82-39-2 to the over the last 123 times it has come up. I will play this one over the total.

Was waiting on this one as the public is pushing this total up higher and higher. It opened at 210.5 and is currently 211.5 and probably will rise a bit more. Both these teams are off momentum building big wins, the Spurs won their last game by 15 and the Nuggets won their last game by 33. That sets up a longterm momentum situation predicated on playing defense on both sides. When you have a pair of teams with one off a 15 point or more win and the other off a 20 or more point win, the total has gone under 189-120-5 in 314 occurances in the NBA. If I add one more parameter, which is live for tonight's game, the winning margin for the under increases to 154-95-4 ATS to the under. I'll ride with the under in this one.

The Indiana Pacers average less than 100 points per game on the season, but over their last 26 games, they have stepped up the offense posting 102.5ppg. New Jersey has gotten a lot more offense since Derron Williams has taken over. He is contributing 14.6ppg and dishing 13.1 assists. The Nets are averaging just shy of 100 since he took over. This game also fits a situation that has seen the over prevail to a count of 156-106 the last 262 times it has arisen. I'll go with the over in this one.

The Miami Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and each of these teams played last night. The Nuggets hammered the heat in Denver in an earlier matchup by the score of 130-102. That sets up a revenge situation here that plays on certain blowout losers, which has gone 73-42 ATS the last 115 times it has arisen. It plays on the total to go over. heast has been 37-16-1 to the over in their last 54 vs the NBA Northwest. Look for this matchup to go over the total.

These teams have been train wrecks this season, and particularly the Wizards on the road at a very ugly 1-30, beating only the lowly Cavs. The points have been hard to come by for the Wizards on the road, but most of their road games have been vs winning teams at 21 compared to just 11 vs losing teams, and they have scored against the weaker teams. They have averaged a total of 205ppg on the road in their games vs losing teams, including a season high 235 vs these same Raptors. This game also fits a huge over situation which is 62-39 to the over the last 101 times it has come up. I'll play the over in this one.

The Sacramento Kings have been a momentum offense all season long, to the point it has become quite predictive. This team opened with 5 straight overs, then went 12 straight games scoring 100+ just 1 time. Fast forward to their last 19 games and 17 of them have gone over the total. They have now scored 100+ in 8 straight games while allowing 100+ in 7 straight games. They are also 17-3 to the over following 2 strauight games with the total points scored of 205 or more. Cleveland now stands at 24-11 to the over in 35 games posted as a road dog this season. Over is the call here.

The Miami Heat has gotten things rolling, and blew out San Antonio at home. This team is obviously at their best when they are playing strong defense, and right now they are in defensive mode. They also set up in a hot longterm situation that has played out to an 86-44 mark to the under in this one. This is a very reliable situational angle and one of few that I play basically blindly. That makes the call in this one on the under for the win.

The Atlanta Hawks have had a tough time scoring points of late, despite the fact they scored 110 vs Milwaukee here last night. They are currently 11-3 to the under in their last 14 playing to a total of 200 or more. This game also sets up as one of my leading situational angles that has been 86-44 to the under, a highly predictive situation. Nuggets are also 39-19-1 to the under when on the road facing a home team with a winning percentage of greater than .600 in their last 59. Under gets the call.

Orlando comes into this one off a loss as a road favorite vs Golden St. The will be facing another team that likes to get out and run the floor, but Orlando won't have anything to do with that in this one, as they will go to school on what beat them against Golden St. Phoenix isn't the running team they have been in the past, but still like to get out in the open court for some quick looks. This game fits into a situation that ha been 64-31 to the under over the last 95 times it has occured, and I will side with the underr in this one.

The Cleveland Cavs have not played a whole lot of defense this season, but recently at home they have put forth a lot more effort, as they held the high scoring Golden St. Warriors here to 95 points, and also held the New orlans Hornets to 96, and the Philadelphia Sixers to just 96 as well. The offense has failed to score 100 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games, and this game applies to an 84-40 situation that is also 10-4 ATS this season. The play here is on the under in this one.

The Philadelphia 76ers redefined their team around midseason and it has paid dividends. The Sixers averaged just 95.8ppg through their first 34 gamed this season, but in their last 31 games this team is now producing 102.9ppg. So that puts the Sixers on the same level of offensive output as the Golden St. Warriors who are averaging 102.9 points per game, instead of their previous output of 95.8ppg, which is equvalent to what the Cleveland Cavs score per game, obviously a huge difference. These clubs played to a total of 188.5 back when Philadelphia wasn't pushing the ball, so we get a dramatically diferent offensive team here to a lower total. The total against Golden St. was 203.5 just to put it in perspective. I'm playing the over in this one.

This is a battle of 2 of the NBA's most disappointing teams. The Bucks won 46 games a year ago, and the Cavs who were expected to be down after LeBron took his game to Miami, have fallen off the charts. It sets up one of my favorite situations on totals in the NBA that plays on weak teams under the right set of circumstances and this is it. This is a system that is 82-39 ATS for 67.7% winners, with a subset that is 31-10 ATS or 75.6%. I will back the over in this one.

The Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns are both rolling right now. The Rockets are 11-4 in their last 15 games to push over the .500 mark for the season. They have topped the 100 ppoint mark in 12 of their last 13 games, and have eclipsed the 120 point plateau 4 times in the process. The Suns have won and covered 5 of their last 7 games, and have topped the century mark in 10 straight, and 13 of their last 14. Rockets on no rest which means no defense as 10 of their last 14 with no rest have topped the total. Phoenix off an extended road trip has now played 12-3-1 to the over upon their return home. This fits in an offensive momentum angle that has gone 53-20 to the over the last 73 times it has arisen. I'll go with the over in this one.

The Denver Nuggets do do as well on the road offensively as they do at home. The difference is about 6 points per game to the neagative side, and with a reconfigured team, and the departure of Carmelo Anthony, I expect those numbers to diminish for awhile. The LA Clippers are simply not an offensive team, and they score and allow less than 100 at home. Teams off a road win vs a division rival facing a home team off a win have played to the under at a 108-58 pace over the last NBA seasons. Denver has historically played to the under facing teams that like to jack up a lot of 3's (18 or more a game), as they have played under to a 93-66 mark vs this type of an aopponent. Clippers an elngated path of unders playing against a winning team, as they are 170-124 to the under against better than .500 teams in their last 294 opportunities. bring a team to LA that scores better than 99 points a game, and the under is 109-78. Denver 19-5 to the under off a 6 point win or less the last 2 years. I have plenty more, including the fact that this is a misguided public play, as this game has the highest percentage of the public on the over as any total play on the card tonight. The play here is on the under.

The Orlando Magic find themselves in 4th place in the NBA East, trying to stave off the Atlanta Hawks so they at least can play the 1st round of the NBA Playoffs with a home-court advantage. Miami stands 1.5 games behind the Celtics for #1 in the East, so this becomes a pivital game for both teams. That usually means defense, and their is a defensive momentum angle in this game that has gone 81-41 ATS to the under in the last 122 times it has come up, live for this one. Magic have left behind some huge under markers as well as they are:

48-21-3 to the under off 1 day rest

57-24-1 under after an ATS loss

39-18-1 after allowing 100 points or more

15-5 under as a road dog of less than 5 last 20

and 9-2 under last 11 overall

This one stays under the total

The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Detroit Pistons are a pair of bad teams, that both played last night. Typically in the NBA when you have a pair of weak teams linking up, the total doesn't stand a chance, especially off of no rest on both sides. This fits a situation based on that, which has produced an over to a mark of 61% with over 300 games in the database, and live for this contest. I will ride the longterm system and play this one over the total.

The Miami Heat has suddenly turned into an over team as we approach the all-star break. The Heat have now played 15-6-1 to the over in their last 22 games. What was once a defense holding 16 straight teams under 100 points has allowed 9 of the last 21 to top the century mark. The Pacers are starting to resemble last year's team, that likes to get out and run, and have played over to an 11-4 mark in their last 15. The Pacers have topped the 100 point mark in 8 straight games. This game also fits a situation that has produced an over to a record of 57-27 the last 84 times it has come up. I'll play the over in this one.

The New Orleans Hornets have gone bad, and they face a tough Orlando team tonight in Orlando. The Hornets have been a team that has built their record around a pair of long winning streaks of 10 and 8 games. Outside of the winning streaks this team is 14-22 on the season. They are 5-13-1 ATS on the road outside of the winning streaks. The oddsmakers have well accounted for their woes with Orlando being a 9 point favorite here. What they haven't accounted for is the fact that New Orleans is 66-30 to the under when facing a team with a greater than .600 winning percentage when on the road off a loss. The Hornets are also 8-0 to the under in their last 8 vs the Southeast, and 17-5 to the under as a road dog in their last 22. The Magic are 34-16-1 to the under as a 5-10.5 point favorite in their last 51, and 44-20-3 to the under off 1 day rest. These teams have played to an 11-3 mark to the under in the last 14 meetings. I like the under in this one as my NBA February Game of the Month.

The Houston Rockets are averaging just shy of 105ppg which puts them in 4th place in NBA scoring offense standings. The Minnesota Timberwolves come in with the 9th ranked scoring offernse. The problem for Minnesota is as good an offensive team Denver is who leads the league in scoring, Minnesota is worse hgiving up points, as they allow 108.6ppg. Houston may score a llot but they are equally bad on the defensive end allowing just shy of 105ppg. It doesn't happen often but teams that have played 5 straight unders and are playing to a total of 215 or higher are 8-2 to the over in their next game. This game also fits a situation that has over 300 plays in it that is well over 60% that calls for this one to go over. I'll play this game over the total.

The Cleveland Cavs have gone 0-24 in their last 24 games. This is a team that has quit on the defensive end as they have alowed 100 points or more in 20 of their last 21, to an average of 110ppg. Their last 19 have seen them top the total in 14 of them. The offense has now scored more than 100 points a game in 3 straight, a season high. The Mavs have now toppd the century mark in 7 straight games, and are 21-10 to the over in their last 31. Cavs ahve gone 20-8 to the over in their last 28 on the road vs a team with a winning record, while the Mavs are 19-7 to the over in their last 26 vs the NBA Central. Over gets the call.

We have a situation here tonight in Minnesota that features a pair of bad teams that have each played 3 conscutive unders. We also have a raher high total, so the first inclination is to play this one under. The problem with that thinking is that games between teams with losing records and both teams on current under streaks of 3 or more, and the total is set high, at over 210, these teams have never played an under as they are 8-0 to the OVER. The T-Wolves are also 21-9 to the over follwing a double-digit loss. I'll play on the over in this one.

The Golden St. Warriors aren't the type of team that plays much on the defensive end of the court. They have really done well as a home favorite dictating the tempo of the game which has led them to a 166-121 in all games as a home favorite going over the total. Milwaukee is off a poor offensive performance where they scored under 80. That sets up one of my strongest over systems which is 157-109 all-time, and on a 63-31 run to the over. I'll play this one over the total.

Many thought the Miami Heat would be unstoppable on the offensive end with LeBron,Wade, and Bosh, but what has surprised is the fact the Heat has become a better defensive team than offensive team. They have allowed 100 points just 10 times on the season not counting overtime. The Magic bring in some prolific under numbers as they are 37-18 under after a loss, 33-16-2 under after 2 days rest,37-17-1 under after allowing 100 or more, and 53-23-1 under after an ATS loss. I'll back the under in this one

The Portland Trailblazers like to play slow and get their opponent in a halfcourt game. Denver likes to get out and run and leads the league in scoring. Portland has willed their hlfcourt game successfully against high scoring teams, even on the road, as they have now played to a 20-7 mark to the under on the road with a total of 200 or higher. The Nuggets have played 64% of their games this season with a posted total of 205 or less to the under, and going back to the end of last season 71%. I like this one under the total.

The Atlanta Hawks have played over as a 10.5 home favorite to a 34-16 mark since 1995. This is a team that likes to get out and run the floor when facing a sub-par opponent. That mark includes a most recent run of 12-3 to the over. The Raptors have now allowed 100+ points to 14 of the last 16 teams they have faced on the season, and 8 straight. Theyhave also played 36-15 to the over vs a team with a home winning percentage of over .600. The Hawks now 17-6 to the over in their last 23 vs a team under .500 on the season. This series is 18-7 to the over in the last 25 meetings, and 6-1 to the over in the last 7 at Atlanta. Over is the play.

The Miami Heat have a trio of stars and when they are all on the court, it isn't the offense that these guys are playing, it is their commitment to defense. The heat in their last 33 games have seen just 4 of them reach 210 points, and James was out for one of them. The Knicks after allowing 100 or more in their previous game have played under to a 8-1-1 mark in their last 10. The Knicks in 2 games this season vs the Heat have average 94.5ppg, and I don't expect to see them making it much beyond that for this one. I'll go with the under in this one.

The Boston Celtics have opened up their lead as the top team in the NBA East at 32-9. Boston has been a bit more offensive of late, a game the Jazz will oblige, and I expect this one to top the 200 point mark. Last 3 for the C's vs the West have produced an average of 210.7 total points on average. The Jazz playing as a road dog have now produced a 43-21 mark to the over, while the Celtics at 35-16-1 to the over as a home favorite of 5-10.5. This series has been dominated by high scoring games, with a 14-5-1 mark to the over in the last 20, which includes 4-1-1 at the Garden, to the over. Boston 6-1 last 7 to the over. This also fits a huge system of mine that plays over on certain teams after a very low scoring game, which has gone 84-37 to the over the last 14 years and is 7-3 to the over this year. Over gets the call.

The Golden St. Warriors certainly don't pay attention to defense. They love to run up and down the court especially at home, where they simply just try to outscore their opponent. The Warrior in their last 47 games facing a total at home of less than 216, have remarkably gone 36-10-1 to the over. The Pacers have picked their spots to run, and when facing a team with a losing record they are 11-2 to the over in their last 13. Warriors have also played 7 straight to the over at home, with 6 of the last 8 meetings between these clubs going over. I'll play on this one to go over the total.

The Cleveland Cavs have allowed 100+ points in 10 straight games, while they have failed to top the 100 mark in any of the 10 games themselves. Needless to say they haven't won any. While the Cavs defense has allowed the last 19 teams to reach 100 points or more on the road, they are a much better defensive team at home, where they allow less than 100 points a game on the season. That sets up a total of 215 that is going to be hard to top, especially when you consider that just 1 Cavs home game out of 17 has topped that mark the entire season. I'll go with the under here.

The Chicago Bulls have dominated lesser opponents at home all season where they are 11-1 against teams with a losing record. They have put handcuffs on these teams, with a stiffling defense. The last 8 games the Bulls have played at home vs a team with a losing record shows them allowing just 83.7ppg. The Charlotte Bobcats play defense, and no team has hit the century mark without the benefit of overtime in their last 10 games. Combined these teams are 47-33 to the under, with the Bobcats playing underto a 15-4-2 mark in their last 21 vs a team with a winning home record. Bulls are now 18-7 to the under after their last 25 wins. I'll play the under in this one.

The San Antonio Spurs have changed the tempo and are playing more of a fullcourt game this year compared to past seasons. That doesn't say this team still doesn't play a top level defense. The Spurs have held Denver to under 100 points in 16 of their last 25 meetings, while San Antonio has managed 100+ in just 7 of the last 25. Just 3 of the last 25 meetings have seen the total points scored reach 210, and just 2 over 210. The last 21 meetings in San Antonio have produced a 16-4-1 mark to the under, and the under is 24-8 in the last 32 overall between these clubs. Denver as a dog from 5-10.5 has played under to a 47-23 mark in their last 70. I'm playing under in this one.

The Denver Nuggets become an NBA powerhouse when they play at home. They are 116-27 in their last 143 games at home, which includes 16-4 this year. One thing they haven't been doing this year is racing up and down the court as in the past, and against good defensive teams their games aren't very high scoring. The Nuggets have played 11 games against the top 9 defensive teams in the NBA in terms of points allowed, and not any of the 11 have topped this total set in this one. Miami has played great defense all season and ranks 2nd in the league. Just 6 teams have reached the century mar against Miami this season without the benefit of overtime. I'll play this one under the total.

The Orlando Magic have now won 9 straight games and really have things going. The New Orleans Hornets will surely be focused for this one, and for them that should mean an intense effort on the defensive end. The past shows that the Hornets when facing a team at home with a winning percentage of .600 or better are 64-35 to the under in 99 previous games. The Magic playing on the road as a favorite vs a team that wins more than 47% of their games has been 33-22 to the under. Totals posted in the 190s with a team that has covered 2 straight games as a favorite, facing another winning team have gone to the under to the tune of an 86-46 mark the last 5 years. Magic is also 10-1 to the under after winning each of their last 3 games by 10 points or more. Orlando is also 35-16-1 to the under in their last 52 after scoring 100 points in their previous game, and New Orleans is 10-1 to the under when their opponent scored 100 or more in their previous game. Finally the Hornets are 26-12 to the under thyis season, and the under is 10-3 the last 13 times these teams have met, as well as 6-1 to the under in the last 7 played at New Orleans. Under gets the call.

The Sacramento Kings have sure had an identity problem which has left this team without much direction. The Kings opened the season thinking along the lines of Phoenix and Golden St. They were going to try to run themselves into games, and the total points in those first 5 were 216.2ppg and all 5 went over the total. The Kings saw the 100 point mark in 17 of their firt 24 games, but then a change. They have now become a halfcourt team that has seen them touch 100 in just 4 of the last 12, and their last 9 road games they have averaged 88.2ppg. When a team is averaging in the 80s and the total is set well over 200 there is certainly a lot of value on the under. Toronto has seen their games at home vs losing teams average just 202ppg so value on the otherside as well. Kings under 8-1 in last 9 roadies, and Raptors 7-3 under as a favorite. Under gets the call.

The Washington Wizards offense has been a mess, and it has led to an 0-16 road mark, and in their last 10 games overall home or away, they have played 10 straight unders. Investigating NBA history shows a team has reached 10 straight unders just 18 times, with the 11th game producing an 11-6-1 mark to the over, and game 12 saw the streak end at 11 if it also went under. When the total has been set at 180 or more the total has gone over in every instance. I will make a play on the OVER here, and double up in the next Washington game on the over if it should lose here.

The Heat is on. The Miami Heat took some time to get their trio of stars shinning all at the same time, but they have figured it out. It isn't so much that they have 3 prolific scorers, it is the fact that the 3 scorers, are playing some intense defense. The defense has been suffocating opponents and the last 15 to face this team have not managed to top the 98 point mark and in the 15 games opponents have scored just 86.7ppg. That includes Phoenix held to 83 and Golden St. held to 84. That puts a lot of pressure on a total topping the 200 point marker. You have to all the way back to November 17th to find a Heat's home game topping the 20 point mark, and that was long before the trio of stars figured out who they were together. I like the under in this one.

The LA Clippers have been playing a slow halfcourt game all season, and the Phoenix Suns are a racehorse team that gets up and down very quickly. The Suns shoot 36% of the time within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and surprisingly the Clippers shot 36% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. The problem is these are 2 jump shooting teams, that get little done in side, as both shoot jump shots 72% of the time. Both these teams however only allow the opponent to shoot the ball in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock 36% of the time. The Clippers have been very defensive vs good scoring teams, those that average 99+ on the season as they are 105-73 to the under when facing them. They are also 36-21 to the under at home the last 2 years, and 22-11 to the under at home off a home game.Suns off of an 83 point game, where they lost by 10+, and following a 10+ point loss they are 5-1 to the under. I'll back the under here.

The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in long of the total and will play the over here.

The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in short of the total and will play the under here.

The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in short of the total and will play the under here.

The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in short of the total and will play the under here.

The Miami Heat have not allowed 100 points in a game in their last 13 games. The Suns hae allowed 100+ in 16 o their last 17 games, and have not been held to less than 94 at home all season. The Suns have been heavy on the overs when the total is set below 209.5 in their home games, as they have played to a 17-4 over mark in their last 21. These teams put up 219 in Miami already this season, and I expect to see a simlar number in this one. I'll play the over in this one.

I'm a little surprised to see the total in this one set over the 200 mark. Houston is a team that likes to get up and down the court but to make a comparison, when they went to Milwaukee another team that works from the halfcourt, the game managed just 188 total points. They went to Charlotte and the same kind of offensive team in the Bobcats that likes the halfcourt game, and just 188 total points scored. Now they go to Sacramento, the team that slows the game down more than anyone, and we are looking at over 200 for a total. The Kings have played just 5 of their last 19 games to 200 points or more. Houston 8-2 to the under off 1 day rest, and 9-4 under after scoring 100+ in their last game. Sacramento 14-5 to the under in their last 19. I like the under here.

The LA Clippers have really been struggling, and in particular on the offensive end. The Clippers are averaging 88.6ppg in their last 5 and the trend over the last 3 is even worse at 84.7ppg. Looks like a great place for an under right? WRONG! This is a huge spot for the over, as teams in the NBA that are playing on the road as a dog, after scoring less than 87 points in 3 straight games are 98-60 to the over! That is 62% winners over a period of 158 games played. I'll go with the over in this one.

The San Antonio Spurs have turned inside out this season. This was a team that played a halfcourt game, predecated on defense. Tim Duncan is no longer on the court for 36-40 minutes a night and the Spurs have shifted gears, as they have topped the 100 point mark in 15 of their last 19 games. That includes 10 of their last 11 at home where they have averaged a Golden St. like 109.2ppg in the 11 games. The Blazers after 7 straight with less than 100 have become more offensive topping the century mark in 3 of their last 4. I like the Over in this one.

The Golden St warriors are comprised of a few different parts this season, and aren't galloping up and down the court as in year's past. They have already played 8 games not reaching the century mark as well as playing 5 in the 80s or less. To contrast the style the Warriors played 3 games in the 80s or less the entire season a year ago. Dallas is a halfcourt team, and defends very well. The Mavs have not allowed more than 103 at home in any game this season, and that was the only game they allowed more than 95. The Mavs have not scored more than 106 at home in any game either. They have not seen a home game top 201 total points the entire season at home, and 3 totals they have faced this year over 200 have all gone under. Golden St. now 12-2 off 1 day rest to the under, and 14-4-1 to the under in their last 19 on the road. Dallas 12-1 to the under in their last 13 as a home favorite of 5-10.5, and 16-4-1 to th under in their last 21 at home. Last 5 in this series played in Dallas have seen 4 of the 5 under the total. I'll go with the under here.

The Orlando Magic has a lot of sickness going around the team, and 4 key players are down, or if they play they will certainly be limited. Hawks have really struggled against the better teams with 89 vs Orlando,86 vs Utah, 93 vs Dallas, 76 vs Boston, and 77 vs Miami. Orlando will not be in a hurry here with limited personnel available, and will try and shorten the game. This one has the look of an ugly low scoring halfcourt game, and I'll play on the under in this one.

These teams are both situated in the top half of the league in fewest points allowed per game, neither allowing 100. They are also both situated in the bottom 10 in points scored per game, so a low scoring game is quite likely here. These teams are also both travelling off of playing last night. The Sixers have a long history of playing low as a short home favorite of less than 5, where they have produced a 107-76 mark to the under, and when they are playing with 0 days rest that goes to 21-11 to the under. Charlotte at 57.4% under in their history as a 4.5 dog or less on the road, and 11-4-1 to the inder in their last 16 as a road dog. Series shows a history of 70% unders as well. I'll play this one under the total.

This is another one I was waiting for the downward trend and caught it on the way down. The last 10 games between these teams has averaged over 240 points per game. The last 17 meetings has seen both teams over the 100 point mark when these teams hit the hardwood. Last year in the 4 games, the winning team scored a minimum of 123 points in every game. The Suns have dropped 5 of their last 7 games playing 0 defense, allowing 119.4ppg, with 3 of their last 5 opponents scoring their highest point total of the season. The warriors have drooped 4 straight games allowing 112.4ppg during the slide. Golden St. in their last 18 home games vs bad defensive teams allowing 103ppg or more, has seen the over go 15-3, and 55-34 to the over in their last 89 home games. Suns now 14-6 to the over on the road playing to a total of over 227.5 since 1996. Golden St is 18-5 at home to a total of 227.5 or higher. OVER is the call.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have played 13 of their 16 games on the season to the over, but this will be the first time posted on the road at 210 or higher. This is also a perfect place for an under as they beat Houston by 17 in their last meeting taking place this season. Home teams off a road loss, that are seeking revenge vs an opponent for a 19+ point loss, have really swarmed defensively, having gone 90-44 ATS 67.2% the last 134 occurances. The fact is 57% of these games have covered by 7 points or more. Go with the under in this one.

We have watched this Golden St. team flounder at the bottom of the NBA for a few years now, with one certainty. They will lose a lot of games, play no defense, and score a lot of points. Something has changed here, as the culture around this team has become more like other NBA teams, and the commitment to defense is higher than ever, and the offense is no longer in a 48 minute track meet, but picking their spots. This year the Warriors have scored less than 90 points 5 times already. Going back they scored less than 90 points 5 times in their previous 102 games! Quite a transition. This team scored 110+ in 34 of 82 games a year ago, or 41.4% of the time, this year just 4 in 15 or 26.7% of the time. It is no wonder they are 11-4 to the under through 15 games. The Grizzlies are allowing less than 100 points a game (not including overtime), and have reached topped the 100 point mark just 1 time in their last 7 (OT not included). I like this one to go under the total.

Don't look now but the San Antonio Spurs long known for being a halfcourt team, have shifted gears. While center Tim Duncan ages, and his minutes decline, the SPurs used to tailor the offense around him, necessitating a halfcourt game, but personnel upgrades, and Duncan no longer the focal point, they are off and running and rank #2 in the NBA in points per game. The T-Wolves will welcome the open court game, as they have allowed 110+ in 5 straight, while averaging 107 themselves. This one tops the total, over gets the call.

The Orlando Magic have a way of slowing teams down, and they have been playing focused basketball early in the season, paying attention on the defensive end of the court. Orlando has allowed just 2 of 10 opponents to reach the 100 mark this season. They are allowing less than 91 points a game. The Suns in their last 5 on 0 days rest have only managed to top the total 1 time, while Orlando is 20-6-1 to the under as a favorite from 5-10.5 points, and 38-18-1 to the under in their last 57 vs the West. I'll play this one under the total.

The Miami Heat and their cast of stars are starting to score. Their first 4 games played to the under, while they have since played 6 straight over the total. The Phoenix Suns are a run and gun team, so a total of 208, as it now stands should be a breeze to top right? History shows otherwise as 51 times in the NBA teams have had a 6 game over the total streak with a total set at 207 or higher and they are 20-31 to the over. The public is all over this one to go over at 70%, but history says otherwise, and I'll play this one under the total.

Lakers really playing uptempo basketall this season to get the season started. Last season through 9 games the Lakers were playing to games that averaged a total score of 190. This year they are averaging a total of 214. That is 24 points above where they were playing a year ago. Phoenix will accomodate frenetic pace as their games averaging 215. Put the 2 together and a result similar to the 230 put up in their firt matchup. This one goes over the total.

I was waiting for this one to hit the 185 mark, and now that it has it has become an official play. The Celtics took the first game 88-80 and I expect this one to once again play at a playoff half-court pace. The C's do a great job controlling tempo, and I like what I have seen from them so far. heat has looked disjointed at times, and don't seem to have the running mentality, but would rather use their stars to break teams down off the dribble. I like the under here.

The San Antonio Spurs are all about defense, and the Charlotte Bobcats are learning fast. Charlotte made the playoffs last year, not because of their great offense, but because they had the NBA's best defense. This year they are back near the top in the early going already and I look for this one to be a halfcourt methodical game, with few opportunities for scoring. San Antonio 20-7 to the under in their last 27 vs a team with a losing home record. Charlotte at 25-11-1 to the under vs a team with a winning road percentage of over .600. I'll play under here.

The Boston Celtics have done well on the road because they don't mind defending, and when they face good teams they seem to rise to the defensive occasion. Oklahoma City developed rapidly last year, and and have played 5 straight to the over to open the season, but I look for that to end tonight vs the Celtics. Boston has played 5 straight to the under vs the West, and 7-3 to the under as a dog of 4.5 or less. Oklahoma City at 21-10 to the under as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. I'll play the under here.

MREAST is riding a tandom blockbuster that shows just 1 loss for the total, and one loss for the side since 1991 in the NBA conference finals and finals. It is my NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR! UNDER is the call!

There is a phrase that has been around forever, that says that defense wins Championships. The Boston Celtics will likely make use of that credo in game 2 of the NBA Conference Finals. It seems to be a strategy that has had a lot of success in game 2 here, as the under has had a lot of success. The Lakers will also abide by that credo, and they also have been 21-6 to the under off 2 days rest. The Celtics have tightened up considerably after allowing 100 points, as none of their last 6 after having allowed 100 has gone over the total. I'll go with the under in this one.

The Orlando Magic finally figured out how to attack a Boston defense that has been smothering opponents during the entire playoffs. Dwight Howard has become a force, and simply put, the Celtics don't have an answer inside for his size and quickness. The Magic have made it a point to attack the Celtic defense from inside out. Howard averaged just 16ppg and 9rpg in the first 3 in this series, but has become the key in their 2 wins at 26.5ppg, and 13rpg. That has opened looks on the perimeter, as the defense has to sag to help, and the Magic are scoring better and shooting better. The Celtics are going to need offense and they will likely find it at home. Teams off allowing 110+ vs a team scoring 110+ are 32-7 to the over since 1996, and playoff game 6 in the conference final is 67% to the over with a total of 185+ over the lat 6 years. The 32-7 mark is backed by 67% of the winners going over by 7 points or more, and 10 of the last 11 have gone over. I'll play the over in this one.

The Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics have played some great defense in this series, and despite an overtime in game 4 neither team reached 100 points for the 4th straight game in this series. That creates a hige factor as to how game 5 will play out. Since 2000, their have been 19 NBA series that have seen the first 4 games fail to see at least 1 team reach the 100 point mark. It has set the tone for sure, as game 5 (overtime not included), has seen just 2 games reach 187 total points in game 5. The average points scored in game 5 has been 172.69 a game a full 15 points below the total set here for this one. Under gets the call.

The Orlando Magic had won 8 straight in the playoffs, until Boston came in and put on a defensive clinic. The Celtics held Orlando to 41% shooting, and limited the Magic to a 5-22 performance from deep. The Celtics have played 13 playoff games, and have held 4 of the 13 to under 40% shooting, and 8 to under 42%. Orlando in their 9 playoff games has not allowed anyone to shoot over 46%. Conference Finals game 2's have hstorically played very defensive, especially with a low postd total in the 180s or less, which have gone 14-3 to the under since 1991. The Magic will take a page out of the Celtics defensive book tonight, as they are 27-10 to the under after failing to cover in their previous game, and 40-18 to the under vs a team with a winning percentage of over .600 in their last 58. The under has prevailed in 8 of the last 9 meetings, and the UNDER is my Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR!

This is called OVER in 2 x 2:



Play over in the 2nd game of the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs.



This has been 23-5 ATS since the expansion of the first round in 2003 to a best of 7. It often generates unders in game 1 (17-11), as teams feel each other out. Game 2 features a typically lowered total from game 1, but teams scheme on how they are being defended in game 1, and come with better offensive plans. The 23 wins in the 28 games feature the following facts:



16 of the 23 overs went over the total by 10 points or more

No year has ever been worse than 2-2

3 of the 7 years have featured a perfect 4-0 mark to the over

The 23 overs have combined to eclise the total by 285.5 points, or by 12.4 points per game.

Last year the closest one was 13.5 points



TONIGHT:

ATLANTA/ORLANDO OVER!

This has been 23-5 ATS since the expansion of the first round in 2003 to a best of 7. It often generates unders in game 1 (17-11), as teams feel each other out. Game 2 features a typically lowered total from game 1, but teams scheme on how they are being defended in game 1, and come with better offensive plans. The 23 wins in the 28 games feature the following facts:



16 of the 23 overs went over the total by 10 points or more

No year has ever been worse than 2-2

3 of the 7 years have featured a perfect 4-0 mark to the over

The 23 overs have combined to eclise the total by 285.5 points, or by 12.4 points per game.

Last year the closest one was 13.5 points



TONIGHT:



OVER IN THIS ONE

This is called OVER in 2 x 2:



Play over in the 2nd game of the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs.



This has been 23-5 ATS since the expansion of the first round in 2003 to a best of 7. It often generates unders in game 1 (17-11), as teams feel each other out. Game 2 features a typically lowered total from game 1, but teams scheme on how they are being defended in game 1, and come with better offensive plans. The 23 wins in the 28 games feature the following facts:



16 of the 23 overs went over the total by 10 points or more

No year has ever been worse than 2-2

3 of the 7 years have featured a perfect 4-0 mark to the over

The 23 overs have combined to eclise the total by 285.5 points, or by 12.4 points per game.

Last year the closest one was 13.5 points



TONIGHT:



BOSTON/CLEVE OVER 192.5

Nothing will push the value to one side as fast as a game where both teams shoot 35% combined from the field, and end up producing just 152 total points. That has forced the oddsmakers hands into placing the total or this one lower than any of the previous 6 games in this series. The Hawks have played 10 of their last 14 vs a team with a winning record to the over, while Milwaukee has played over to a 10-3 mark in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record, then there is a huge 27-4 trend pointing to the over here as well. Game 7 goes over the total.

This series has sure seen some scoring, but the oddsmakers have now priced the value on the otherside. This series opened to a game 1 total of 208, and has now risen a full 9 points from what was considered a fair price in game 1 on this very same court. The Nuggets have played to a 38-18 mark to the under in their last 56 posted as a dog, as well as a 21-8 mark to the under in the quarterfinals. The last 7 meetings between these clubs played in Utah has produced 5 unders as well. This one stays under the total.

The oddsmakers opened this total for game 1 at 208. What has happened is 3 overs and 1 under have driven the price up to 215, and despite the 7 point tax, 65% of the public sees this one going over the total. Utah has had 13 games on the road this season vs teams that average 102ppg or more, and the results have shown them playing under in 9 of the 13. The games have averaged scoring just 203ppg. Denver has now been 21-7 to the under in their last 28 quarterfinal playoff games. Under gets the call.

The total has creeped up to the 190s in this one after 3 of the first 4 playing to the over. This one presents a great opportunity, with a 61% system that has nearly 500 games in the data set! Milwaukee has now also become a solid under team following a game where they allowed 100+ points, as they have followed by going 9-4 to the under in their last 13. This one has value with the added points, and lots of signals that say to play this one under the total.

This is a huge spot for a system that has rocked the books over the last 14 years of NBA first round action. When you get to game 4 of the sries, and the posted total is in the 190s, it has been a historic under spot, and the books have failed to make the necessary adjustment. This situation since 1996 has seen the under prevail to the tune of 32-8. That is an 80% cover rate over a 14 year period. I will go with the longterm trend, and play this one under the total.

This is a huge spot for a system that has rocked the books over the last 14 years of NBA first round action. When you get to game 4 of the sries, and the posted total is in the 190s, it has been a historic under spot, and the books have failed to make the necessary adjustment. This situation since 1996 has seen the under prevail to the tune of 32-8. That is an 80% cover rate over a 14 year period. I will go with the longterm trend, and play this one under the total.

This is a huge spot for a system that has rocked the books over the last 14 years of NBA first round action. When you get to game 4 of the sries, and the posted total is in the 190s, it has been a historic under spot, and the books have failed to make the necessary adjustment. This situation since 1996 has seen the under prevail to the tune of 32-8. That is an 80% cover rate over a 14 year period. I will go with the longterm trend, and play this one under the total.

The Atlanta Hawks have opened a comfortable 2-0 series lead vs the Bucks. This becomes a huge game for Milwaukee looking down the barrel of down 3-0 with a loss. That usually means the defensive end of the court gets the attention, and the Bucks have done well on the defenisve end all season. The Hawks are a notoriously poor offensive team on the road in the playoffs. Their last 4 playoff appearances, covering 15 road games sees their highest output at 87 points! The 15 game average stands at just 77.1ppg. The average over the last 2 years is a very similar 77.3ppg. They have played under in 7 of their last 8 as a playoff dog. I'm going with the under in this one.

The Charlotte Bobcats led the NBA in fewest points allowed this season, but it wasn't a very defensve year in the NBA. They allowed 93.8ppg which is the highest amount over more than 15 years in the NBA for a team to lead in this catergory. The fact is when they played the top 8 teams in terms of scoring offense at home the games went over the total in 6 of the 8 played, with an average total points scored of 197. I like this one to go over the total.

Looking at the Utah offense, and this Denver offense, makes it look like an easy over play here, but I disagree. This series started with a fair line of 208 for a game 1 total, and it has shot up to 216. Now the venue changes, and so will the scores. The last 2 years these teams have played to an average total points scored of 224.3ppg in Denver, and just 200.5ppg in Utah. The Nuggets in the playoffs the last 6 years have played to a 9-10 mark at home to the over, and on the road they have been 3-15 to the over. Last year the Jazz played their opening 2 games on the road vs the Lakers, and the game both went over, and averaged 220.5ppg. They came home to play to a rising total, but the final score was 88-86. Denver has also played to a 21-6 mark to the under in their last 27 as a playoff dog. Denver is 34-15 to the under in their last 49 as a dog. Denver is also 8-0 to the under after 2 straight games with a combined score of over 215 points. Utah has played to 51 totals in home games over the last 2 years with the under prevailing 32-19. Utah is 69-41 to the under in all playoff games since 1996! UNDER IS MY NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR!!!!!

The Heat offense through the first 2 games has been horrible. They have played 8 quarters, with 4 of them totalling 53 points, or 13.25 per quarter. We have seen this before, laying an egg last year vs Atlanta scoring just 64 points, then coming back for 108, and 107 in the next 2. The Celtics weren't exactly stellar defensively on the road a year ago, where they averaged allowing 105ppg. Celts have played over to a 21-10-1 mark off 2 days rest, and Heat 5 of 6 off a straight up loss. This one goes over the total.

The oddsmakers have added vakue on this total by shaving it 8 full points off the closing number in game one which was 197. Why is a fair number plaaced on a total 197 but now considered 189? A low scoring game will do that. The Lakers have reached the 100 point marl in 20 of their last 27 home playoff games. They have averaged 103.5ppg at home in their next home playoff game following a game under 100 at home. The Lajers will win here, as #1 & 2 seeds are 76-8 at home in the first round. Lakers on the moneyline.

The Cleveland Cave went through an 8 minute scoring drought in game 1, which made the game look like a big defensive struggle. I would expect the Cavs to remain focused for 48 minutes here after their 3rd quarter dive in game 1. The Bulls are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 as a dog, and that includes 6-0 in this range of pointspread. Cavs have gone over 9-3-1 following an ATS win. I look for the Cavs to pour it on here, to take a 2-0 series lead heading to the road for game 3, and I like this game to go OVER the total.

There have been a lot of mismatches in the NBA 1st round of the playoffs, but there is also something that has evolved since the 1st round went to a best of 7 game format. That change and the pairings of great vs mediocre, has led to a lot of high scoring games in the first round when the #1 seed is playing at home. Since the change, which has now 38 games in the database, the #1 seed at home has played to the over to the tune of a 66% winning rate. I'll back the over in this one.

There have been a lot of mismatches in the NBA 1st round of the playoffs, but there is also something that has evolved since the 1st round went to a best of 7 game format. That change and the pairings of great vs mediocre, has led to a lot of high scoring games in the first round when the #1 seed is playing at home. Since the change, which has now 38 games in the database, the #1 seed at home has played to the over to the tune of a 66% winning rate. I'll back the over in this one.

It has been another trying year for the Washington Wizards, and they traded away key scoring ingredients, which hasn't made it any easier. They also lost Josh Howard, the key player they got in return. They have closed the season by playing to a 26-9 under mark, and I don't see the finale going any differently. The Pacres saw their 4 game winning streak come to an end at home vs Orlando, where they scored just 98 points, and playing the finale on the road, doesn't present them bringing their "A" game to this one. Pacers 9-2 to the under vs teams under .400, and I like the under here.

The Charlotte Bobcats have accomplished something and it probably is known by few. They are the best team in the NBA in terms of points allowed per game. It has allowed them to play to a 9-3 mark to the under in their last 12 games on 1 day rest, and 9-4 to the under facing an opponent off a 100+ offensive game, and 6-1 to the under as a dog. The Bulls have been a huge under team as a road favorite where they have posted a 9-1 mark to the under in their last 10 in this situation. I'll go with the under here.

The Sacramento Kings don't play very offensive on the road vs the good teams. Their last 12 in this situation shows them scoring 100+ just 2 times, and the average stands at just 91.7ppg. The Lakers have not been an explosive offensive team down the stretch themselves, as they have averaged just 94.1ppg over their last 11. Kings have failed to play to the over in all of their last 7 on the road, while the Lakers have been 21-8 to the under over their last 29 games. I'll play this one under the total.

The Indiana Pacers have done a good job at home this season, and down the stretch they have played fast and loose, and the result has been 119.3ppg in their last 4. Over their last 13 home games the Pacers are putting up 109.5ppg. Pacers have played over to an 11-4-1 mark in their last 16 as a home dog. The Orlando Magic are at 109ppg in their last 5, and have played over to a 5-1 mark in their last 6 with no rest, with the 5 games going over averaging 228ppg. I'll play this one over the total.

The Milwaukee Bucks have had the hot hand, and in their last 14 home games, just one team has reached the century mark, and that was the Sixers who put up 101. The Bucks over the course of the 14 games are allowing a stingy 90.9ppg on their home hardwood. The Bucks have only reached the 100 point mark 25 times all season without overtime, so this figures to play like the last one, that finished with 170 total points scored. Bucks on a 35-15-1 under mark in their last 51 vs the East. This one stays under the total.

The Spurs had a stretch this season where they were uncharacteristically offensive. That has settled down as the playoffs approach and the Spurs have averaged less than 100 over their last 10 games. They have also clamped down on the defensive end allowing jist 92.9ppg in their last 10. Grizzlies last 6 include 2 overtime games, but the reality is in regulation minutes they have scored just 95ppg. They have had lots of problems scoring against winning teams, and are subsequently 21-10 to the under in their last 31 vs a team with a winning record. The Spurs as a favorite of 5-10.5 points are a perfect 6-0 to the under. This series has also gone 22-10 to the under in the last 32 meetings. Under gets the call.

Over the last 40 games, the Utah Jazz has been one of the best teams in the NBA. The Jazz have put together a 31-9 mark in those 40 games, and the offense has been clicking in a big way. Over their last 18 games, the Jazz

The Toronto Raptors have now been given Golden St. and Phoenix status when it comes to high totals, with this one approaching the 220 mark. The problem is the Raptors are averaging under 100ppg over their last 13. Likewise, the Minnesota Timberwolves, over their last 8 home games, have averaged less than 100ppg. This isn't the typical scenerio seen in generating a very lofty total, as we have posted for this one, and the oddsmakers are in error here. T-Wolves have played under to a 26-12-1 mark in their last 37 as a home dog. I'll play this one under the total

The oddsmakers just don't seem to get it when these clubs get together. It is typically an all out defensive war, and the games rarely score as many points as expected. The last 24 games played in this series have seen just 2 go over the total, without overtime involved, and this one is set way to high. To top that off the Pistons are 31-8 to the under in their last 39 games vs a team with a winning record. This one stays under the total.

The Detroit Pistons are a fragment of what they were just a few short years ago. There is however one thing that has stayed status quo with this team, and that is their willingnes to defend, especially at home. The Pistons have not allowed any team to score more than 105 points on them at home this season. They have played 10 games vs the top 11 teams in points scored per game at home, and no game has topped the 200 mark, and no team has scored 100!!! That makes this a tough spot to top the total, especially when the combined scores in all 10 of those games has failed to top the 200 point mark. Under gets the call here.

The Sacramento Kings have not played much defense, especially on the road, where they have allowed 12 of their last 15 opponents to top the 100 mark. The Blazers took 20 games to score 100 points 7 times, before their recent run of 7 straight over the century mark, so this team is clicking on the offensive end of the court right now. Kings are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15 on 1 day rest, while the Blazers are now 11-5 to the over after a loss. I'll play this one over the total.

The Boston Celtics were rolling along through 27 games, offense was scoring 100+ in 16 of those first 27 games, then the wheels fell off. It looks like this team aged overnight. They have reached the century mark in ust 9 of their last 29 games. The saving grace of late is a defense that has allowed just83ppg in their last 3. The Bucks have long last finally put things together and are 15-4 over their last 19 games. The biggest reason is holding 12 of their last 19 opponents in the 80s or less. The Bucks are now 20-6 to the under vs the Eastern Conference in their last 26, while the Celtics playing on the road vs a team with a home winning percentage of over .600 are 32-15 to the under in their last 47. I'll go under in this one.

The Miami Heat have really struggled with their offense on the road. The Heat over their last 11 road games are averaging just 89.8ppg. It has led to an 8-2-1 mark to the under. Their last time in Charlotte saw them produce a woeful 65 points. The Bobcats went through a 17 game stretch averaging over 100 points a game, but that has been lost. That has been replaced by an offense that has scored 93.2ppg in their last 15, with each of their last 5 failing to reach the total. Miami is now 27-10 to the under off a straight up win, while 5 of the last 6 meetings between these clubs have fallen short of the total. UNDER gets the call.

The Lakers are considered by most a very offensive minded team, but that has not bee the case this season, especially of late. The Lakers over their last 17 games have averaged less than 100 points a game not including overtime minutes, and when you take out their 2 games vs highly offensive teams in Indiana, and Denver where they scored 113, and 122, the Lakers are averaging under 96ppg. The Magic have posted great defensive numbers at home over their last 13 home games allowing just 91ppg. They have allowed 100+ at home just 3 times in their last 27 games. Lakers enter with a 26-10 mark to the under in their last 36 off a straight up loss, and 8-1 to the under in their last 9 as a dog, while the Magic stand at 20-6 to the under in their last 26 as a favorite, and 45-18 under off 1 day rest. Last 7 meetings have also produced 6 unders. I'll go with the under here.

This is a game between two teams with tired legs. For Phoenix it will be their 5th game in 7 days, and for Indiana it will be their 3rd road game in 5 days. That often spells trouble at the offensive end. The Pacers are also in a highly predictive situation, as they are a poor defensive team off a blowout loss. NBA teams that allow 103ppg or more, and off a 20 point or more loss, have stiffened up on the defensive end in their next game producing a 106-58 mark to the under in their next game. I'll play this one under the total.

The Utah Jazz have now played 6 straight to the over, and when streaks start building the public notices, as do the oddsmakers who begin to pad the lines, creating value on the otherside. These teams met less than a week ago to a total of 202, so already 4 points added. Good teams in this situation, have produced a 122-68 mark to the under in the last 190 occurances, or 64.2% of the time in almost 200 games. This one stays under the total.

This is one of the ugliest series between any two teams in the entire NBA. These teams have played some of the ugliest defensive games over the years, and ugly translates to defense in the NBA. This is a heated and hated rivalry, and a series that has seen the last 22 meetings that have not gone into overtime play under the total in 21 of them! The last 11 in Cleveland have all stayed under the total, and the most points scored in any of the 11 games has been 181!!! Additionally the Pistons are now 30-8 to the under in their last 38 games vs a team with a winning record. THE UNDER IS MY NBA GAME OF THE YEAR!!!

The Lakers will play to their lowest posted total of the year in this one. It also opens up a highly predictive system, that has turned in a 138-84 ATS mark the last 222 occurances. That is playing over when you have an excellent team (scoring margin of 6+), facing a team off a high scoring game (sor total points or more (Miami 216 last game). Miami is also 13-8 to the over this season after allowing 100 points in their previous game. This one goes over the total.

The San Antonio Spurs are scoring well this season, and average over 100ppg. That all changes when they play on 0 days rest where they have had 9 games this season and average just 91.6ppg. They have played to an 19-6-1 mark to the under off 0 rest in their last 26. New Orleans is tough at home, and facing teams with winning records at home, they have held them to -5.5 points a game less than their season average. The Hornets are also 21-8-1 to the under as a home dog. San Antonio has played 8 straight unders vs teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, and the last 5 played here in New Orleans have all stayed under. I'll go with the under in this one.