This is a tough one for the books as we have the highest scoring offense vs the lowest, and setting this one at this high a level makes no sense to me. The Grizzlies are a top defensive team at home, because they play slow. They have matched up at home 13 times vs teams that rank in the top 10 in the NBA in points scored a game, and just one of those games have gone over this total. The average points scored in those games was just 197.6ppg, and of the 8 games they played against teams with a winning record in the top 10, none have reached this total. That includes Phoenix that played here earlier to see just 190 points scored. This one stays under the total.

The Atlanta Hawks have learned how to play defense, and it is paying dividends for them especially at home. The Hawks have quietly moved into the top 10 in fewest points allowed per game. They have done so by allowing just 88.6ppg in their last 15 home games. They have played 11 games at home vs teams in the top 10 in points scored per game, where Indiana resides, but have allowed these teams just 94.8ppg. Indiana is a high scoring team, but that offense has been grounded vs the top 10 defenses in points allowed a game. The Pacers have matched up with these teams 14 times on the road, and managed just 96ppg. They were held to 87 last time into Atlanta. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

The Denver Nuggets have been red-hot coming down the stretch of the NBA season, as they are now 13-1 over their last 14 games. The Nuggets lost their way in early February, as they went through a stretch that saw them go 6-9. The problem was a huge offensive slump, that saw them average just 95.4ppg. That has all changed now as the Nuggets are closing the way they did last season, when they finished with 22 of their last 23 games scoring over 100 ponts. Their current century mark streak is at 14, where they are averaging 113.7ppg. The Lakers have played in 21 games against teams in the top 10 in points scored per game, and have averaged 111ppg against them, while allowing 108. The Laker total at home jumps to 115.4ppg, while they are yielding 106.6ppg, or on average these types of games have produced 221ppg, well over the total here. I will play this one to go over the total.

The Chicago Bulls are on a rampage, especially at home. This is a team that was underachieving for the greater part of the season, but is finally putting it together. The Bulls are 12-1 in their last 13 home games, with the lone loss coming at the hands of the Lakers. It is a team loaded with offense, that just couldn't find its way early on, as they managed 100 points in just 11 of their first 23 home games, but have now hit the century mark in 13 of their last 15 at home. Philadelphia has alowed 100 points or more just 10 times at home, but more than half the time on the road. I am not fooled by the Sixers 94.5ppg defense in their last 8, which featured all 8 games vs teams in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense. What is more relevant is their 4 games prior to that when they played all teams in the upper half of the league in scoring, and allowed 113.3ppg. This one is set to low and is going over the total, as have all of the last 6 between these two teams.

The Phoenix Suns don't even try to play defense, they just try to make the game as fast as possible and hope to outscore their opponent in the end. That strategy has not worked quite the same on the road vs the best NBA defenses. The Suns have played on the road 8 times vs teams that are in the top 8 in the NBA in points allowed, and failed to reach even the 100 point mark in 5 of those games. The Suns breakneck speed offense was down-shifted to an average of 96.6ppg! The New Orleans Hornets simply don't allow big offenses to score on them at home. The Hornets have faced the top 10 scoring teams in the NBA at home in a total of 13 games, and the highest scoring game was just 203 points. Phoenix managed just 91 here. These high flying offenses have been held to 95ppg over the 13 games. This one is way over the top, and I'll play this one to go under the total, as my NBA GAME OF THE MONTH

The Cleveland Cavs have been a dominant home team, and have lost just one game at home all season. Part of what they have become is a tenacious defensive team in their own building. The first 22 games played here saw the total reach 200 or more 10 times, or in almost half their games. What has happened since shows how they bring the defense every single night, as just 1 game in their last 16 played at home has reached the 200 mark, and it took a Phoenix team, that doesn't know what defense is to do that, and still that game reached just 201. The Cavs may have a litle extra for this one, as they were shocked by the Wizards 109-101 in Washington less than a week ago. The points won't come easy tonight. I like this one to go under the total.

season. They have allowed every one of the 15 teams to score 100 or more, and have allowed an average of 113.5ppg. The Nuggets went through a 15 game slump that saw them fail to reach 100 in 10 of the 15 games. Since then, they have it rolling again, and have scored 100+ in their last 10 games, averaging 112.6ppg in the process. They have also given up 100+ in 6 of their last 7. This one goes over the total.

The Utah Jaz going into last night, had held the last 10 teams they played at home under 100 points. Put them on the road, especially vs teams with a winning record on the season, and the story is completely different. The Jazz has played 14 games on the road vs teams with a winning record, and all 14 have scored 100 points or more! These 14 teams have averaged 113.4ppg against the Jazz. These games have seen the total points scored in the 14 games average 215.7 a game, and earlier in the season these teams put up 230 in Portland. I'll take this one to go over the total.

Since Lebron James arrived in Cleveland the Cavs and the Pistons have played some of the ugliest games of any teams in the league. This has become a hate match, and the games play ugly. The last 19 times these teams have met, without overtime being involved, all 19 games have gone under the total! That is 19-0!!! Over that stretch of 19 games Cleveland has never scored 100 points, and Detroit just 1 timeThese teams in the 19 games have averaged scoring in the 160s, a far cry from where this total is set. The 19 games have seen 14, not come within 12 points of the total. I will play this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Hornets are a rare team as they are a top 5 defensive team, yet have a losing record on the season. They have played at home 11 times vs the NBA's top 10 in points per game scored, and 9 of the 11 have gone under the total. These 11 games were played to an average total of 196, while the average points scored were 184.2, that is 11.8ppg less than the posted totals in these matchups. Teams that averaged 104.5ppg were reduced to 93.8ppg, which would rank 28th in the NBA. The Lakers in turn have played against 12 teams on the road in the top 10 in defensive points allowed. They have avaregaed under 100 points per game vs these teams. Charlotte is also 20-7 to the under at home vs teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher, and after an against the spread loss the Lakers are 8-1-1 ATS to the under. I like this one to go under the total.

The Utah Jazz are a redhot team that has now gone 20-6 over their last 26 games. They have been a tale of 2 teams during the second half of the season. The Jazz on the road have allowed 100 points or more in 17 of their last 19 games, for an average of 110ppg. They have been a completely different team defensively at home, where in their last 10 not a single team has reached 100 points against them, and the average points allowed has been just 90.8ppg. That is a full 20 points per game less allowed at home, than on the road. The Knicks offense has cooled down. After 26 straight games scoring 100+, the Knicks have now scored 100+ in just 4 of their last 8. the last 7 games played in Utah has seen these teams play under the total, and I expect this one to as well. Under gets the call.

The #3 and #4 ranked defensive teams will square off in New Orleans. That has made this total set much lower than what is reasonably expected here. The Spurs last 11 games on the road vs teams with a winning record have seen 9 played above this total, and actually 5 have gone over 200. The Spurs have now played 8-1 to the over in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning home record, and the Spurs have also topped the 100 mark in their last 3 games. I like this one to go over the total.

The Celtics have had their bumps and bruises this season, and will again be without Kevin Garnett, who had a setback trying to come back from a knee injury. Leon Powe is also on the sidelines, and Rajon Rondo tweeked a sprained ankle, but will likely play. The Celtics remain a top defensive team, however playing with Garnett, has seen them go 11-5 to the over in their 16 games he has missed. The Celtics also seem to play with less intensity on the defensive end at home vs teams with losing records, as their Garden record vs teams under .500 shows an 11-2 mark to the over in their last 13, 4-1 over without Garnett. The Thunder have allowed 100+ in 22 of their last 31 games, and on the road vs teams with a winning record they are allowing 110.5ppg in their last 10, certainly enough ammunition here to play this game to go over the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats are the only NBA team in the top 10 of the NBA in fewest points allowed. It is a combination of slow methodical offensive sets, and solid team defense. There has only been 1 game played in Charlotte this season where there was over 207 points scored, and that was vs Golden St. where there was 213 scored. It took both teams combining to go 21-39 from beyond the arc, for 54%. If they shot 46% from deep, that game goes under as well. This is just too high a total for what the Bobcats have done at home all season long, with no exceptions. UNDER gets the call here.

The Indiana Pacers have played most of their games recently against teams that at least show up on the defensive end of the court. They have played 7 consecutive unders, none against teams in the bottom 10 of the NBA in points allowed per game. It has pushed this total down from where it should be, as the Pacers have played 18 games against teams in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game, and have played 13-4-1 to the over, with the average points scored in the 18 games 221.4. That is over a dozen shy where this one is set. The Bulls are playing at a higher level, having won 8 of their last 12, but it isn't about defense, as they are allowing over 100 points a game in the 12. It is their offense carrying the load at 106.1ppg. The Bulls offense has been clicking for quite some time now, as they are 17-11 in their last 28 games, and averaging 105.5ppg in the process. This total is set to low and this one goes OVER the total.

There are not many opportunites that arise like this one. This game fits a situation that has produced 61% winners over a 12 year period, that have averaged covering the posted total by 7+ points over 50% of the time. This is a purely situational play I am making on this one, with a long history, and high percentage chance of winning. I am playing this one to go over the posted total. It is a 3 unit play, and over the last 5 years it is 54-19. (73.9%)

The Boston Celtics have had a rash of injuries but are getting healthier. Kevin Garnett is back, and his presence in the lineup gives Boston the defense they had been lacking in his absence. The Celtics have met the NBA's top 10 defensive teams in points allowed on the road 10 times this season, and those 10 games played to an average total of 174.8 points per game, or almost a full 20 points below where this one is set. This game has all the makings of being a playoff-type defensive game, because they each enter this one with 18 losses on the season, so if they should meet in the playoffs, this game could go a long way in determining who is playing at home. The Celtics sport a 16-5 mark to the under on the road vs .600+ teams as well. The Magic are 47-19 to the under after scoring 100 points in their previous game, and have played the last 7 at home vs a visitor with a winning road record to the under. UNDER gets the call here.

The Atlanat Hawks have suddenly become a very defensive commited team, as they have now moved into the top 10 in the NBA in points allowed per game. The Hawks gave up 121 to the LA Clippers back on February 7th at home, but since have changed focus. They have played 10 at home since that game, allowing no team over 97 points, and giving up an average of just 86.7ppg. The T-Wolves score 100+ in 7 straight after lossing Al Jefferson, but have slowed down since, and their last 5 on the road shows a high of 93 points scored, and now have played 10 of 12 to the under when posted as an underdog, while Atlanta has played 8 of their last 9 at home to the under. I like this one to go under the total.

The Denver Nuggets have begun to get their pace back, as they have averaged 113.3ppg in their last 3. What is more important is in their last 11 games on the road vs teams with a losing record, they have allowed over 100 points in 10 of them, to an average of 109.3ppg, while the Nuggets themselves, in these same 11 games have averaged 107ppg. They have played 17 teams on the road this season with 12 of them going over the total, and 13 of them scoring over 200 total points. If you throw out the game vs Charlotte, the only NBA team in the top 10 in fewest points allowed with a losing record, then the average points scored in the other 16 games is 213ppg. I like this one to go over the total.

The Cleveland Cavs have really been eating up just about everyone at home, as they enter this contest vs the Magic with just a single setback at home on the season. They lead the NBA in fewest points allowed, and over their last 23 home games have allowed just 86.6ppg. They just held a Knicks team that had scored 100 or more in 26 straight games to 93. Orlando is a team that can also defend, and score, but they have been held down on the road vs the NBA's top defenses. They have been held to 90 or less in their last 8 games vs the NBA's top 10 defenses, and I expect this one to be a playoff like game that features a half-court game and tenacious defense, by both sides. This one goes under the total.

I have been waiting for this one to come around since the Suns made the coaching change, and have been playing at a much faster tempo. That tempo will be severely challenged tonight vs the Cleveland Cavs. The Suns have been a scoring machine, and it has driven this total up to a point that is extremely inflated, and I'm ready to stp in. The Suns have played 21 games on the season vs teams in the top 10 in scoring defense in the NBA. This scoring machine was held to under 100 points in 10 of those, and on the season they have averaged 100.1ppg against the top 10 defenses in the NBA in points allowed. The 21 games against these teams have featured just 4 or 19%, that have toppled this inflated total. Taking a look at the Cleveland Cavs, they have not allowed a team to score more than 105 points against them on the road the entire season! They have played in 20 games this season vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the league, and in those 20 games the Cavs have stopped these teams cold! The 20 games featured 13, or 65%, where their high scoring opponent did not reach 100 points! No team with a winning record on the season has topped 105 points against the Cavs yet. The Cavs off of 1 day rest is now 39-19 to the UNDER in their last 58 games. The last 4 years the Suns have been a top team in the NBA, and they are 113-41 at home, which means to be a home dog, like they are in this one they have to be playing a top team. They have not played a game to the OVER as a home dog in any of those 154 home games. They have been a dog just 6 times, and all 6 went under by an average margin of 20ppg! This is my NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR, and it is on the UNDER!

The Philadelphia 76ers might not be considered one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, but they currently reside in the top 10 in fewest points allowed per game. Those numbers have been even better when they have been at home in Philly. The last 21 games in Philladelphia have included high scoring teams such as Denver,Phoenix,Indiana twice, Orlando, and the Knicks. Those 21 games have averaged just 190.6ppg, and only 2 of the games have surpassed the 200 mark, that is 9.5%. The Raptors have played 12 games on the road vs the top 10 defenses in the league, in terms of points allowed and in regulation minutes, they have not scored more than 97, and average only 90.2ppg. Those 11 games have featured 2 that have topped the 200 mark. I like this one to go under the total

The New York Knicks have now scored 100+ points in 23 straight games. That means the totals in their games have been creeping upward. This one is in the 220s, and higher than the game they played the Lakers, who are the highest scoring team in the NBA. Milwaukee has had the Knicks number this season. The Knicks have scored 87 points or less just 6 times this season, and 3 of those were in the 3 games they have played against Milwaukee. I like this one to go under the total

The Detroit Pistons have not had a great year, and the offense lacks the punch it has had in recent years. The one constant on this team is defense. The Pistons rise to the occasion when they play other teams that like to play defense. This season at home their games vs teams also in the top 10 in points allowed have produced unders in 9 of the 10 games played. The 9 games that have gone under the total have done so by an average of 12.6ppg. They have met twice this season, and neither game scored more than 178 combined points. This one goes under the total.

Neither one of these teams would be considered offensive minded, and when you take a hard look at what Memphis has done at home vs teams that are ranked in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points scored, it sure looks like an inflated total to me. The Grizzlies have played 9 such games at home, and they have averaged 87.7ppg. The opponents in those same 9 games have averaged 91.6ppg. That totals out to be 179 points per game, a full dozen points above what is posted for a total in this one. The games all together played to -107.5 combined to the posted total, meaning dividing that by 9, they covered by an average of 11.9 points per game. This total is set way to high, and I'm playing this one under.

The Denver Nuggets are having offensive issues right now, as they have now been held under 100 points in 8 of their last 11 games. This is a better defensive team than the past editions, and a team that isn't running up and down the floor like last year's team, that scored 100+ in 22 of their last 23 games. This is a team that still averages 103ppg, but does not average that at home vs the top 10 teams in the NBA in points allowed. That 103 dips to 96. Portland has had problems of their own scoring on the road vs teams over .500. Their last 11 games on the road vs top teams (.500 winning percentage or higher), has shown them to hit the 100 point mark offensively 0 times. The last time they managed to do it was on November 12th. It is also worth pointing out, that these same teams have averaged just 95.5ppg. against them. The Portland average has been 89.6ppg. Both these teams struggling to put up points, and I'll play this one to go under the total.

I like what this Oklahoma City team has done. They climbed out of a horrible start, and have become quite competitive, and despite their injuries, remain a threat. The offense which had been weak early has really stepped it up, and shines vs the bad teams at home, as the Thunder have averaged 98.8ppg at home vs the under .500 teams, and allowed 99.3ppg. Washington is not a good offense, until they take the road against the sub .500 teams, where they suddenly have averaged 100ppg, but at the same time are allowing 106ppg. Whichever way you look at this one, their is value in the over. There is also a huge system that backs the logic. I have a system that is live for this one, that under certain conditions, when 2 horrible teams do battle (both under 25% winning percentage), the over is 52-16 ATS and 20-6 ATS in qualifying games this season, for 77%. This system has been powerful enough that in the 68 games that fit it the last 3 years, 49 of them have gone over the total by 7 points or more! That is 74.2% winners to a line set 7 points higher than the actual line! I'm playing this one OVER, and it is my NBA total of the month!

These teams play some of the ugliest games in NBA history, and the last 7 times they have met in the regular season, 6 of the 7 failed to top the 180 mark. The Pistons are a shell of what they once were, but one thing hasn't changed, their defense. They have already had 8 games on the road this season vs teams with a winning record that have failed to reach this total, and 10 of their last 11 on the road vs winning teams have gone under the total. This one is no different, and I like the UNDER here.

These teams are clearly not offensive minded, as they both reside in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points scored. Charlotte remains as the only team with a losing record to reside in the top 10 in points allowed on the season. Combined these teams have played against teams in the bottom 10 in scoring offense and have seen just 4 of 13 games reach this level of total points scored. Not a single one of them went over 196, while there were several below 175. I like the chances of this one playing UNDER the total.

The New York Knicks have now reached the 100 point mark in 19 straight games. They have also allowed 100+ in 13 of their last 14. This total is set on those performances, but this one, is once again an overlay. The Heat will have something else in mind, they play much slower than what the Knicks want to play at, and will be an unwilling dance partner. The Heat have played 29 home games, and not a single one topped this total. The average points scored in Heat home games this season is just 190. The last 21 home games the Heat have played, just 2 teams reached 100 points against them. The average points allowed in these games is 92. The Heat have played at home against 6 teams that rank in the top 10 in points scored a game, and not a single one of them has scored over 100 points. I like this one to go under the total.

I am not sure what the oddsmakers are looking at in this one. The new Orleans Hornets just don't play high scoring games at home vs anyone, period. They have played 29 home games which includes games with Phoenix,Golden St, 2 with the Lakers, and 1 with the Knicks, and those 5 games against the top 4 offensive teams in the NBA produced 179,195,187,196, and 178 points. The most points scored in a Hornets home game this season has been 206, and their have been 3 others at 200,202, and 203. Their home totals vs Phoenix were set at 193, and vs Denver 199.5, so now Milwaukee is in here at over 200? The last 8 set at 193.5 or higher have all gone under by an average of 13.8ppg. This one goes under the total.

The New York Knicks really have the Mike D'Antoni offense clicking, as they have put up 100+ in 18 straight games. It has led to a very inflated total in this one. The Sixers have only played 6 games with a total set at 213 or higher on the season and have played under to every single one of them. They have also played 9 games on the road vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the NBA, and the highest points scored in any of those games reached was 207. Overall the Sixers have played 20 games this season against the top 10 offenses in the NBA and only 2 or 10% have surpassed this total. The average points scored in those 20 games was just 194, almost 20 points lower than this one. The Knicks have had 11 games at home vs the NBA's top 10 defenses, and just 2 have exceeded this total. I will also point out that although the Knicks have scored 100+ in 18 straight, do you know the last team that held them under 100? It was the Philadelphia 76ers. This one is too high, and UNDER gets the call.

The Boston Celtics are a team capeable of playing fast or slow. They really play defense against the top teams, but just assume play an offensive game against the sub-.500 teams. That has translated into their last 10 games at home vs the sub .500 teams all going OVER the total (10-0). The Celtics have averaged 111.6ppg in these contests, while allowing 101ppg. The 10 games have played 18.8ppg OVER the total on average. The Pacers have scored 110+ in 10 of their last 14 road games, and I like this one to go OVER the total.

Don't be fooled by the Clippers, who seem to be in high scoring games, and have upped the tempo, consider the competition. The Clippers have faced high octane Phoenix twice, the Knicks, and Golden St. in 4 of their last 5. What it has done is put a false reading on this team, as they have suddenly scored 116.3ppg in those 4 but inbetween played Portland and scored 87, and they played Charlotte just before that and put up 73. This is a Clipper team that has faced 6 teams at home all season ranked in the top 10 in points allowed, and has not scored more than 92, and averages 86.7. That means Boston must get to 115, something they have done just 3 times in their last 30 games, without the benefit of OT. Chances are, that the Clippers fall short of that 86.7 average because Boston is the best defensive team they will have seen all season. Even on the road the Clippers have not topped 96 in 8 games vs the top ten defenses. Boston has played against 15 teams on the road that have a losing record on the season, and the average points scored is 189.7ppg. This total has been pushed way out of proportion because of the recent games the Clippers have had vs big scoring, run and gun teams. I'm playing this one under the total.

The Denver Nuggets have done something they haven't done in a longtime. Thy went all of last year, and did not fail to score at least 80 points in a game, but suddenly they have done it twice in their last 6 games. It may cause some to be concerned with the Denver offense, battling a slump, it may cause others to see value in a suddenly deflated total in their game. I see the value in the deflated total that says OVER here. You have to consider the Nuggets played the most grueling part of their schedule, having the last 8 on the road. They fly home exhausted and face one of the top teams, and top defenses in the league in Boston, that put the clamps on them early. The Nuggets have gotten to 100+ in 11 of 14 home games vs teams with losing road records. Two of those 3 were 99, and 97. The fact is they are averaging 111.2ppg against these types of teams. To contrast, when they play at home vs teams with a winning road record, they have been held to under 100 in 6 of the 10 home games! The average plummets to 96.5ppg. They are 15ppg better at scoring against what they face tonight. Atlanta has allowed 107ppg on the road vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the NBA. The last 13 games played against these teams 12 of them put up 100+. This one goes over the total.

The Dallas Mavericks are off a game where they scored in the 70s. That becomes a red flag right away, as NBA teams aren't supposed to score in the 70s. It does however trigger an inefficiency within the marketplace of NBA wagering, and I'd like to address that. The totals in anticipated low scoring NBA games are typically set in the 170s, so the expectation is for teams to score in the 80s. You don't ever see expectations of teams scoring in the 70s. That is the line of demarkation for the gambler, the oddsmaker, and the team. Are they slumping? The oddsmaker then takes his computer generated total, and begins to shave what and where the total should be to hedge the betting public. VALUE IS BORN!!! The NBA has featured 168 games since the beginning of last year, where a team scored in the 70s. The result of the next game, was that the OVER scored the cash to a record of 101-68 or 60% of the time. I will back the OVER in this one as my NBA Play of the Day.

Sometimes the sports wagering market is much like the stockmarket. Sell on the good news. buy on the bad news. Thus is the case with this Memphis team, that just put up 79 points in their last game. That becomes a but sign in the NBA, as teams that score less than 80 points in their previous game, play OVER at a 60% rate in their next game. This offensively challenged team suddenly becomes alive against the worst 10 NBA teams in allowing points. The Grizzlies are averaging 102ppg against these teams on the road. The line seldom sinks below 210 for a Pacer home game, but when it does, 8 of the last 10 have gone over the total, and this one will as well.

The Detroit Pistons have a struggling offense, and when they win, they need the defense to step up, which isn't as easy on the road. The Pistons allow 90+ on the road 60% of the time, and Miaimi scores 90+ at home 79% of the time. Detorit also scores 90+ on the road 56% of the time, while Miami allows opponents to score 90+ in their home games 68% of the time. The overall picture says 90+ points occurs 66% of the time in this situation. Their matchup in Detroit saw this bearing out, as each team reached the 90 point mark. Recent trends show Miami scoring 90+ in 8 of their last 9 at home, and allowing 90+ in 6 straight. This one is going over the posted total.

The Cavs have been punishing teams at home, and have suffered just 1 loss on the season in their building. What gets lost in the fact that this team is the #1 defense in the NBA in points allowed, they still average over 100ppg. The offense plays looser whn playing against the under .500 teams at home. The Cavs average goes up over 8 points a game to 108.4ppg against these teams, and at the same time the defense relaxes, as the poor teams average more points at 92.7ppg, vs the Cavs season average of 90.8ppg. Overall the grizzlies have become more offensive-minded. They were averaging 86.4ppg in the 11 games that preceeded their last 10, and in those last 10, a full 10ppg more at 96.6ppg. The defense did not allow 110+ in any of the 11 games, but the last 10 have seen them allow 110+ on 4 occasions. Definately playing a faster game right now, and I'll go with the over here.

The Denver Nuggets are a better team defensively this season, and not quite as fast paced team we have seen in the past. They have had just 3 of 11 games top the 200 point mark vs the top 10 defensive teams at home. The Celtics have been one of the tp defensive teams in the NBA. The Celtics bring their best defense for the best teams when they travel. They have allowed just 1 team that is .500+ on the season, in their last 13 on the road to score 100 points on them. It was Phoenix, who scored 140+ in the 3 before Boston. The other 12 games have seen an average of just 176.3ppg scored combined in them, and no game other than the Phoenix game reaching 200 points scored. I like this one to go under the total.

The Knicks have been perfecting the Mike D'Antoni run and gun offense and have now scvored 100+ in their last 16 games. They have also allowed 100+ in 10 of their last 11. The Knicks have played 10 games vs the top 7 offenses in the league to an average of 232 points scored per game. Pacers are always accomodating to run and gun contests themselves as they have averaged 233 points in their 9 games vs the top 7 offenses. I like this one to go over the total.

I've played this game under between these teams the last few years everytime they play. Since LeBron James arrived in Cleveland, and the Cavs became a competitive team, these teams play defensive wars. The last one ended at 170. That ran the string to 19-0 to the under, not counting one OT game. These teams have averaged 168.5ppg in the meetings, and the total went under by an average of 15.45 points a game. If you go back even further, the under is 22-1. No other way to play this one, and I'll back the under here.

The New York Knicks have now gotten the Mike D'Antoni system down, and it shows in their points scored and allowed, but not by the oddsmaker. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 15 straight, averaging 112.6ppg. They have also allowed 100+ in 9 of their last 10, allowing 114.5ppg. The Knicks are the Warriors last year, without the high price attached to playing them over. The result has been 10 straight going over the total. The average total in the 10 game streak is almost identical to this one, at 215ppg on average. I will go with the streak, and play this one over.

The New York Knicks have now gotten the Mike D'Antoni system down, and it shows in their points scored and allowed, but not by the oddsmaker. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 15 straight, averaging 112.6ppg. They have also allowed 100+ in 9 of their last 10, allowing 114.5ppg. The Knicks are the Warriors last year, without the high price attached to playing them over. The result has been 10 straight going over the total. The average total in the 10 game streak is almost identical to this one, at 215ppg on average. I will go with the streak, and play this one over.

The Sixers were hot for awhile, and have cooled down, and right now they are really struggling to find their offense. During their hot streak they scored 100+ in 7 of 8, but now have only reache the 100 mark in 2 of their last 11, and were held to 84 at home vs this same Miami team just 2 weeks ago. The Heat has been playing great D against winning teams at home, as they are allowing just 93ppg, against much better offense than what Philadelphia brings to this one. Sixers exceptionally tough after allowing 100+ as the under has gone 16-5-1 after they allow 100+. These teams have played under in 7 of the last 8 meetings, and I expect this one to follow suit and go UNDER the total.

The Celtics have a knack for turning games vs good opponents defensive. They have met 12 teams with a .500+ record on the road this season, and not a single one has managed to reach the 100 mark against them. The last 12 have averaged just 87.5ppg. It is interesting to note that the Jazz have scored 100+ at home in 11 of their last 13. The teams that stopped them? Defensive minded Cleveland, and Detroit. This one looks more like a game where the winner may just eke out 100, if that, and I like this one to go under the total.

The Pistons are a team on the decline, as trade rumors swirl around Rasheed Wallace. The defense is still there, ranked 5th in the league, but the offense is nowhere to be found. These teams have traditionally played ugly defensive games, and 7 of the last 8 between them have gone under the total. If you look at what Detroit has done at home vs the top NBA teams, it points well under here, as they played Cleveland to a 170 point total, Bston to 164, and 164, Orlando to 170, and Portland to 181. They are 6-0 to the under at home to the teams with a winning percentage of .600+. They played in San Antonio earlier in the season to a game that totalled 166 points. That means in the last 7 meetings between these two teams the total points scored has been 166,164,170,179,151, and 155 points. That is an average over the last 4 years of 165.1ppg. I like this one to go under the total.

The New Orleans Hornets have brought their "A" game defense to every home game vs the top teams this season. They have played 13 games at home vs teams with a .500+ record, and not one scored over 100 points, and 8 were held in the 80s. They have not been very offensive either, as they have managed 104 vs Cleveland way back on November 1st, but have since produced 90 or less in 8 of the 12. Since that 1st game with Cleveland, the Hornets have produced just 1 game that topped the 190 mark vs .500+ teams at home, and that was high scoring Phoenix, but that one only managed 195. These teams met on Christmas Day and the game produced just 154 points. I like this one to go UNDER.

The Denver Nuggets aren't anything like the team we saw last year that ran and played no defense. This year they still like to pick their spots to get up and down the court, but they are actually holding opponents to under 100ppg. Last year's version of the Nuggets saw them score more than 105 points in 57 of 82 games or 70% of the time. This season just 22 out of their first 53 games, or 41.5%. Those 53 games include 17 vs the top 10 defenses in the NBA in terms of points allowed. The Nuggets have topped 105 in just 1. On the road vs these teams, which Philadelphia is one, they have averaged just 93.5ppg. The Sixers have allowed just 95ppg to teams over .500 on the season at home, and they are also 7-2 ATS at home to a total of 200+. This one is set too high, and I'll play under here.

It's easy to look at the Pistons team that has lost 6 of their last 7 at home, and has been in some high scoring games of late, and say they are washed up. The fact is their last 7 home games have been against teams with a combined 234-132 record or .639 winning percentage. The Bucks are a vastly improved team, and have scored 120+ in their last 3, all at home. The difference here is this. The Bucks have scored 109.8ppg in their last 12 at home, while scoring just 95.6ppg in their last 12 on the road. Huge difference!! So this total is juiced by the Bucks surge of late, but it is definately has not translated on the road. Now, if you take the Bucks and put their offense on the road vs the NBA's top 10 defenses in terms of points allowed, the Bucks on the season average 90.5ppg in this spot. That puts pressure on a Piston offense so somehow produce 107 points if averages hold to put this game over the total. When you consider the fact that in the last 30 games they have played, they have not reached that 107 point mark without the benefit of overtime, that makes for a lot of value on the under here. UNDER is my call in this one.

The Charlotte Bobcats are a rare team. They are the only team in the NBA that has a losing record, despite being ranked in the top 10 in points allowed. The reason is simply, because they play a half-court game, and don't have much of an offense. What it does for them, is allow them to hold teams down, but at the same time the real good teams, that rank in the top 10 defensively hold them down easily. They have faced 6 teams in the top 10 in points allowed per game on the road this season, and they have managed just 79,81,89,80,74, and 87 points. That works out to just 80.5ppg. Those same teams have only managed 95ppg vs Charlotte's defense. Overall they have played 16 games vs the top 10 in points allowed, and have given up just 95ppg in the 15 on average. They have scored 84.4ppg themselves. This one is more likely to play in the 170s, and there is lots of value on the under here, and I'm going under in this one.

When a team comes off a game where they are involved in a final score that shows 271 points on the board, it is difficult for the oddsmaker to not pump up the total in their next game. That is exactly the case for this one. What they have failed to take into account, is tonight's opponent. The Portland Trailblazrs have not had a game reach over this total on the road in a non OT game in their last 62 road games! That streak goes back to December of last year! Golden St. is a scoring team, but with that, only 11 of their 25 home games have topped this total. This one os inflated, and I'm playing under here.

I wanted to wait as long as possible for this pick, until the public bet the total up. It's a classic setup, the Knicks off a 271 point game vs Golden St., who plays many of those a season, and the Clippers off of 2 out of 3 where they score 125+. Let's look at the Clippers. This team played 2 games all season where the total points in their game has reached 221. The most recent reached 231 points. That game to score 231 points required the Clippers to shoot nearly 60% from the floor, hit 16 threepointers (16-29) 55.1%, and the game needing their opponent to shoot 50%, and all together 62 free throws attempted. All of that said, he game still reached just 231. The other was against Golden St., who has seen 22 of their games reach this total. This Clipper team outside of the back-to-back 120s games where they shot just about 60% in each, has not once scored over 108 this season with out OT in any other game. The oddsmakers are saying this game has a final score of 113-108 with a 221 total and Clippers by 5. If they are right it will only be the Clippers 3rd time all season reaching 113, and the 2 times they did reach it, they had to shoot 60%. Value is on the under here.

This total is simply set too high between these two teams. New Orleans has played 11 teams with a winning record at home this season, and not a single one has scored over 100. Boston has been on the road vs 9 teams with winning records, and none have gotten to 100. New Orleans has averaged allowing 88.5ppg in the 11, Boston allowing 86.8ppg in the 9. These teams have collectively played in this situation 17-3 to the under. The average of the 17 games that went under was by 15ppg! The 3 taht went over, were by 2,2, and 9 points. This one goes UNDER, and is my NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH!

The Phoenix Suns aren't quite as fast paced as they were under Mike D'Antoni, but still like to get up and down the floor. The problem is they have faced 9 teams on the road with a winning record on the season, and the total points scored reaching this level, has been passed just 1 time (Denver game was 206 before OT). The Suns have scored under 100 in just 13 games, but 10 of those were in games vs teams .500 or better, and their overall mark is 0-13 ATS when scoring under 100. The Sixers have become a much better team, and are 12-4 over their last 16. They have allowed 100 or more just 4 times in the 16 games, and 2 of those were 100, and 101. Ten of the 16 games have come at home where they are allowing just 91.5ppg. The last 16 home games the Sixers have played has seen the visitor top their season point average in just 1 of the 16!!! The other 15 games saw the opponent average 7.4 points less a game than they average! Phoenix averages 104.9ppg, and if Philadelphia does what the have averaged over the past 16, then Phoenix projects to 97.5 points here, something they have done just 1 time in their last 45 games, and barely, as they scored 116! I like this one to go under the total.

The Cleveland Cavs are 23-0 at home, and the main reason is, that only 2 teams have reached the century mark against them on thir court, and there has yet to be a team with a winning record to record 100 points this season in Cleveland. These teams played in LA, and the final total points were just 193. The chances are this one will be even more defensive, as the Lakers are winding down a 6 game road trip. This one will play under the total.

The Houston Rockets have always been considered a defense first team, and that is magnified at home, especially vs the teams that aren't big offensive units. The Rockets have played 10 teams this season on their home court, and not a single one of the 10 reached 200 points scored. These opponents have averaged just 84.5ppg! The Rockets on the otherhand have not been filling it up vs these teams either, as they have scored no more than 103 in any of the 10 games, and have averaged just 91.8ppg. It's easy to see that of the 10 games played 9 have gone under the total! The T-Wolves have played under to the tune of 8-3-1 in their last 12 when facing strong home teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. This one goes under.

The Celtics success has been predicated on defense, and the Knicks has been via the offensive end, so something might have to give here tonight. The Knicks are a hot team right now, as they have covered 8 of their last 9, and have been over 100 points in all of them, averaging 110ppg during this stretch. The Celtics come here after an emotional OT loss to the Lakers and may be a little less intent on the defensive end here. The C's gave up 100+ in just 4 of 16, prior to their recent run of allowing 100+ at 4 of the last 6. Hot offense, vs a team off a high energy game, that may not bring it's best offense spells OVER.

The Boston Celtics have been a great team, since the addition of Garnett, and Allen to compliment Pierce, and the emergence of Rajon Rondo as a top PG. What makes them tough is all 4 are commited on the defensive end, and when they get in big games, the defense carries them. Last season the Celtics played in 11 home games against the best teams in the NBA, those with winning percentages above .600. They held these elite teams to an average of 92.2ppg. This season so far they have faced 5 of them, and the numbers are even better, as their record against teams with an over .600 winning percentage is 88.2ppg allowed. It is no wonder that the Celtics have played their last 8 vs teams with a winning percentage over .600 to the UNDER. The Lakers have scored 100+ in 21 of their last 23 games. The teams that stopped them? San Antonio and Boston. That is not shocking, as the high powered Laker offense has averaged just 97.6ppg vs the top 5 defenses this year! To put that in perspective the top 10 defenses has turned the #1 ranked offense into a #21 ranked offense!! They have played 4 games in Boston since the arrival of Garnett, and Allen, and have averaged just 94ppg. This one stays under the total.

The Detroit Pistons have been the most solid defensive team in the NBA for several years now, this year is no exception. Despite having to overcome low totals posted against them, the Pistons have played under more often than over in each of the last 6 seasons, and have by far been the king in the NBA holding opponents to under 80 points, having done it 43 times over the last 3+ seasons. Now they find themselves with a struggling offense, and the low totals are getting knocked down one after another. The Pistons have now gone 13-2 in their last 15 with a total posted of 186 or less, with one of the 2 losses coming by a single point. The Heat has played 7 times on the road vs defenses that rank in the top 10 in points allowed, and have averaged just 84.4ppg, and all 7 games have gone under the total! These teams have also played under to a record of 20-6-1 in their last 27 meetings. Under gets the call here.

The Lakers have the offense clicking, and that means a lot of points. They have averaged 114.3ppg in their 10 road games vs teams with losing records, but at the same time are allowing 107ppg. The Lakers fall under a huge catergory that has been money in the bank over the last several years. When a team beats the total to the over 3 straight games by 6 points or more playing in a non-conference game. These teams are 27-9 to the over, and 63% of the time have beaten the total by 7 points or more. The average total in these games has been set at 217, and the average points scored has been 226!!! Toronto has played over in 4 of their last 5 in the 2nd of back-to-back games. Over gets the call here

The pacers have begun to get treated by the oddsmakers in much the same way as Golden St., Denver, and Phoenix. They have scored 100+ in 19 of their last 21, but those numbers are a bit decieving. The last 10 Pacer games have played in regulation under this total. The T-Wolves have played just 8 of their last 43 over this number. The Pacers have played 16 games this season at home vs teams that are averaging under 100ppg, and 15 of the 16 have gone under this total, with the average points being scored at 205ppg. This one is simply set way too high, and I'm gong under here

The New Orleans Hornets have been a defensive powerhouse at home. The last 15 home games they have played, has seen them hold all 15 teams to under their season's scoring average. It isn't that they are holding teams just below their average, they have held these 15 teams to an average of 10.5ppg below their average! These 15 teams have combined to average 99.5ppg, but the Hornets have held them to 89.0ppg. The Trailblazers have been held to 86.2ppg on the road in their last 8 games vs teams that are .500 or better, a full 12.5ppg below their season average. This series has been rough, physical, and defensive over the last few years, as each of the last 6 games has gone under the total, and no game has seen more than 187 points scored in it. I like this one to go under.

This has become a heated rivalry game since the Cavs added LeBron and became competitive, It has been one of the most consistent defensive struggles in the NBA, and when these two get together, it is typically an ugly game. The last 23 times these teams have met the total is 22-1 to the under. It has been such a defensive battle that 17 of the 23 games have gone under by 10 points or more. Cleveland has not scored 100 points in 20 consecutive non OT games vs Detroit. The average total has been 183.7 and the average points scored between these two teams is just 168.3, or 15.5 points under the total on average. I like this one to go under the total.

here is another market inefficiency play. Theams that are matching up as two good offensive teams averaging between 98-102 points a game fit this description, especially when 1 is coming off a game where 175 points or less was scored (Portland). This situation has presented an average total of 194.8ppg, with the average score being 205ppg, and an overall record of 37-9 ATS to the OVER. The tota went over in this situation by 7 points or more 61% of the time. I will play this one over.

I write a lot of articles about market inefficiencies in sports wagering, and a lot of what I do is based on continued research, and updating circumstances, that the oddsmakers simply aren't onto. There is a situation here tonight, that shows a huge market inefficiency. It occurs when teams are off an embarassing home loss, where they failed to score 80 points. At the same time, their opponent is coming into the game off a big road loss of 10 points or more. These games have shown to go under 78.3% of the time, for an overall record of 36-10 since 1996. The average total the oddsmakers have set has been 184.6 in these games, while the average total points scored in these games has been 177.6. here is the safety test for this system. If you reduced the average total set by 7 points a game, you would still win the UNDER in 28 of the 46 games. So what you have here is a market inefficiency, where if the line was actually 7 points lower you still cover 61% of them. This is 1-0 this year, and 3-0 over the past 3 years. UNDER is the call here.

This is pure offense vs pure defense, and the oddsmakers are off by 7 points in this one. The Suns have manged 98ppg in their 8 home games vs teams in the top 10 in points allowed. They have also give up 98ppg, for an average of 192ppg scored by bith teams. The Spurs have faced 5 teams in the top 10 in points scored on the road this season, and have allowed 94ppg, while scoring 94ppg themselves. That is an average of 188ppg. Combined these teams in this situation show an expected outcome of 192 points scored. Value on the under. Supporting trends? San Antonio 41-20-1 under last 62 on the road. San Antonio 39-18-1 last 58 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. San Antonio 24-8-1 under as a dog last 33. This series has seen 6 of the last 7 also go under. UNDER gets the call here.

Both these teams find themselves in the top 10 offensively and defensively in the NBA. That is a rare occurance as going back to the 1997-98 NBA seasons, there haven't been many games between teams ranked in both the top 10 on offense, and defense in terms of points allowed and scored. I went back to the archives, and there have only been 22 such matchups. Those 22 games produced an average of 178ppg, which is 17.5 points below the total set in this one. Only 1 of the 22 games ended with a total points scored of over the total set here, and that was by 1.5 points. There was one other game that scored 202 points, but went under in regulation. So 20 of the 21 games did not top the total set here. Play this one UNDER.

The Knicks are a much better team when they score 100 points. They are 21-8 ATS when they reach the century mark. They have reached that total in 18 of 22 home games, so you can see the effectiveness of Mike D'Antoni's running game. They have also allowed opponents to reach the 100 mark in 14 of the 22 as well, so combined we are looking at 32 of 44 where either the Knicks or their opponent reached 100 at the Garden, or 73% of the time. Knicks have reached 100 in 5 straight, and the Hawks have faced teams in the top 10 in points per game on the road 6 times, allowing 107.7ppg. I like this one to go over the total.

The Boston Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but when they play at home vs the sub-.500 teams, they lack the same intensity as they bring vs the good teams. The Celtics have allowed 99ppg vs teams with a losing record at the Garden in their last 9 games (counting Phila 21-22 as a .500 team). The offense has absolutely picked these teams apart, as they have averaged 116ppg. These 9 games have seen the over go 9-0, averaging 215 points a game to a posted average total of 197. They have played over the line by 18ppg. The Kings have allowed 121.4ppg in their last 8, while scoring 110 themselves for a ridiculous 231 points per game. Games against the other members of the over .700 club (winning percentage) Cleveland,LA Lakers,and Orlando, saw the Kings games average 222 points. I like this one to go over the total.

The Boston Celtics have that defensive mantra going, and when they get in big games, the defense is what carries them. Since November 9th the Celtics have played 5 games on the road vs tams with winning records on the season. Those 5 games have seen the avrage total points scored of just 174 per game, with none going over 181. The Magic have played 8 games at home vs teams with a winning record on the season, and the average points scored has been 185.9. The Celtics have now played 12 of 14 under on the road vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage in their last 14, and 21 of 28 on the road under overall. Magic as a home favorite of 5-10.5 are 41-19-1 to the UNDER, and 4 of the last 5 between these teams played in Orlando have gone under. I'm playing the under here as I expect this one to be played in the 80s.

The San Antonio Spurs have played 227 home games over the last 5 and a half years, and only 19 of them have exceeded this total. That is 8.3% of all games. Many are going to point out the Pacers scoring 100 and allowing 100 in 14 straight games. They had a sequence of games vs all the top offenses in the league. They have played a total of 15 games vs the NBA's top 10 in points allowed per game, and have reached 100+ in just 5 of them, and on the road they have reached that number just 2 times (all stats not including OT), one of the road games was exactly 100. They have averaged just 94.3ppg on the road vs the top 10 defenses in points allowed. They have only averaged 98ppg at home against these teams. This one goes under the total.

The Phoenix Suns are back to their run and gun style. After scoring 100+ in just 10 of their first 20 games, they have now reached the century mark in 10 straight, and 17 of their last 18. They have also allowed 100+ in 20 of their last 23 games. The Celtics, who have awakened from a deep slump that saw them go just 2-7 after a 27-2 start, have now scored 113ppg over their last 3. It is unlikely they get any resistance from the Suns here, that simply don't play defense. I'll play this one to go over the total.

The Knicks, and coach Mike D'Antoni have tried to bring the Suns running game to New York, but unless you have the personnel to pull it off, it simply doesn't work. The Knicks have been playing to inflated totals all season, and have now played under in 9 of their last 10, and 17 of their last 23. They have only reached 210 total points in their games 7 times in their last 24. The Bulls highest output over their last 11 games has been 102, and vs teams with losing records, 15 of their 19 games have featured less points scored than the posted total here. These teams have played under in 6 of their last 8 meetings, and I look for another under in this one.

The Toronto Raptors certainly aren't a high scoring team, but when they have matched up against the NBA's top 10 offenses their games have taken on the personality of the opponent as in those 14 games 11 have gone over the total. If you exclude the defenisve minded Celtics, where they have split 2 overs, and 2 unders, they are 11-1 to the over, with 8 of the 11 toppling the over by 11.5 points or more! The home games have seen 4 of the 6 played against top 10 offenses exceed the posted total by 20.5 points or more. The Suns have averaged 104.5ppg, but in their last 17, they have topped the century mark in 16, and are averaging 110ppg!!! Not only that they have now allowed 100+ in 19 of their last 22. The average allowed is 106.5ppg. This one goes over the total.

Portland is considered a defensive team, but in their last 17 games they have allowed an average of 98.2ppg, and have not given up less than 92 in each of their last 10 on the road. The Bobcats have been more offensive minded, as they produced 100 points on offense just 5 times in their first 25 games, but since have toppled the century markin 6 of 14, and in their last 4 at home have allowed an average of over 100 a game, and 11-5-1 playing over as a home dog of 4.5 or less. I like this one to jump over the total.