This game fits a situation which is 497-359 ATS, the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 497-359 ATS, the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 497-359 ATS, the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 156-92  ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 75-28 ATS and the play is on the over

 This game fits a situation which is 67-34 ATS, make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 107-57 ATS, make the play on the under.

This game fits a total situation which is 240-155 and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 238-155, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation which is 72-41, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 74-28, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 22-3, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation which is 237-155, and the play is on the under

This game fits a totals situation which has gone in favor of the under to a 60-15 record, make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 57-22 ATS, and it also has one of my best perfect subsets which is 26-0 ATS. Make the play on the over.

The San Antonio Spurs have taken a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Miami Heat, and look to close them out in game 5 tonight in San Antonio. When you give this series, as it has played out so far the "eye test", the Spurs have certainly looked like the better team in all facet of the game. One reason for that is the way they have shot the ball. The Spurs are 154-284 for 54.2% in this series, and from beyond the arc they are 43-92 at 46.7%. Those are unsustainable numbers for any team. Miami, one would think, would be winning any other series as the Heat has shot 138-281 at 49.2%. They have also been great from deep at 39-91 at 42.9%. The fact is over the last 11 years in the playoffs if a team shoots better than 49% and better than 40% they are 207-31 SU and 199-39 ATS, but the case for Miami here. The over has also been 197-39-2. There is the key. Despite lights out shooting from both sides, the total is 2-2 O/U in this series, when based on shooting, it should be 4-0 O/U. Combined these teams are 51.7% and from 3 they are 44.8%. if you took all playoff games where the average FG% from both teams was greater than 50% and 3pt shooting greater than 40% the over is 104-6! So why 2 unders? Despite the insane shooting, the pace has been extremely slow in these games, each game averaging from 128-152 shots taken. A closer look reveals game 1 with 146 shots taken. There have been 29 previous playoff games with 146 shots taken and the average points were 180.4. Game 2 saw 152 taken, 45 playoff games with 152 shots taken saw 183.2 points. Game 3 saw 128 shots taken, 1 previous playoff game saw 167 scored in that case. Game 4 saw 141 taken, 12 games with 141 shots taken saw 177.1 points scored. There is a strong likelihood that shooting will be down in game 5. Playoff games following a team hitting greater than 42% from 3 over 4 straight games show 8 of 10 going under and the average 3pt shooting dipped to 36.4. teams that hit greater than 51% from the field in 2 straight games are a 57% chance to go under in the next one, shooting an average of 46.1%. That becomes 80% if they have 3 series wins. Despite the crazy shooting, just 198.8 points per game has been scored in this series, which is one shot away from this being under, and the 198.8 was obtained from numbers not likely to hold in game 5. My NBA Playoff Total of the year is on the under.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are now facing elimination in game 6, as this series has played out rather strange. The sum of the 5 victory margins has been 102 points. The largest 6 game sum in NBA playoff history is 106, and the largest 7 game sum is 134. There simply has not been a competitive game. The one thing that has changed is the pace of the games in this series. There were 167 shots attempted in game 1, 171 in game 2, and 172 in game 3. That has now dropped to a game 4 total of 159, and a game 5 total of 157. That is a tendency that is showing about a 9% drop in overall pace, and each of the last 4 have played to the under. Elimination games tend to play more in the half court, and contested more on the defensive end. From round 2 on a home team from game 6 on, facing an opponent with 3 series wins, shows 37-17 to the under. This is 33-11 if the total is less than 208.5. The numbers get better with each consecutive under that has been played prior to the game. Off 1 under 21-7, off 2 unders 3-14, off 3 unders 1-9, and off 4 unders 0-2. I also have a 30-7 situation based on the line, to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Miami Heat has taken a 3-1 lead in their best of 7 series against the Indiana Pacers. They now change venues, and head back for game 5 in Indiana. The Het have a lot more workable parts this season, and it shows up best on the offensive end, where they are shooting nearly 50% from the field, leading all teams. That has translated into 98.5ppg for this team. Both these teams have shot well from deep as they rank 2 and 3 out of the 16 playoff teams in nocking don 3's. The Heat surprisingly are 21-9 to the over in their last 30 playoff games, and that includes 10-3 this season, and the Heat is now 5-0 to the over following a win. Indiana comes in at 6-1 to the over in their last 7 vs a team over .600. This game fits a strong over tendency that is now 31-7, and 4-0 this year. Play on the over.

The Miami Heat has taken a 2-1 lead in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals, in an attempt to reach the finals for the 4th straight time. The pace of this series has been slow, with just 133 shots taken last game. The game ended up going over the total despite the slow pace because 68-133 shots were made at 51.1% and 16 of 39 were made from deep for 41.0%. Additionally these teams cashed in on 34 of 45 free throws, for 75.6%. All high marks, considering a pair of great defensive teams. I expect the defenses to have a lot more to say about the outcome tonight, and Indiana over the last 2 years in the playoffs allows 88ppg after a loss. I also have a situation that is 31-8 to the under that is active for this game as well. Make the play on the under.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been embarrassed by the lack of defense they played in game 1 and 2. keep an eye on history here as 2 years ago these same teams met in the playoffs with Oklahoma City allowing 110.5ppg in the first 2, both losses, and held the Spurs to 82 in game 3. Serge Ibaka is a difference maker in the paint, where San Antonio scored 120 points in the first 2 games, I expect much less tonight. The Thunder was off a game 2 that saw San Antonio go for 50 points in the paint in that series 2 years ago, and held them to 24 in game 3. Game 3 home favorites in round 3 have played 6-1 to the under the last 10 years to a total of 200+. I also have a playoff round 3, game 3 situation that is 21-4 to the under active here. Play on the under.

The Oklahoma City thunder will take on the san Antonio Spurs in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. These teams played at an above average pace all season, as the 4 games saw 168.3 total shot attempted on average. I expect this one to be played faster yet, as Serge Ibaka will be out for the series. That is going to have Oklahoma playing smaller and quicker for many minutes of this game, without a true rim protector on the other end. Take a look at 3 teams that lost their big man for 1 game each in a given series during these playoffs. Al Jefferson sat out against Miami in game 4. It was the highest scoring, fastest paced game of the series, and the 98 points scored by Charlotte was a series high. Take a look at Washington, as Nene Hilario sat out a game against Chicago. It was the fastest paced game of the series, one that saw Washington score a series high 98 points (overtime excluded). Take a look at Memphis when Zack Randolph had to sit out, the game was far and away the fastest paced game of a 7 game series that ended 109-120. The 109 points was a series high for Memphis. Now Ibaka is out for Oklahoma City, and from what we have seen, this should be a faster paced game than we are accustomed to seeing, and the play is on the over.

The Indiana Pacers have found their way to the series they wanted to be in, and have the home court advantage, they didn`t have a year ago. The question is which team shows up today? The Pacers were 33-7 to start the season, but have been just 31-23 since. So what happened. The short answer can be found here. When they were 33-7 they were averaging 98.2ppg, and allowing 88.3ppg. Since then they are averaging 94.3ppg (a drop of 4 points per game), and allowing 94.1ppg (an increase of 6 points per game). That is a 10 point drop off combining offense and defense. That defense has not been as it appears as the level of competition rises. A breakdown of their season shows:

VS >500 teams allowing 95ppg
VS >550 96.1ppg
>600 98.1ppg
>700 98.3ppg

The 98.3ppg is in play today as they face the Heat, and you can see a direct correlation to their defense having less impact as the quality of the opponent increases. The offense has actually shown the same trend vs >500 teams 92.8ppg but vs >700 teams 97.9ppg. Miami averages over 100ppg vs any team from .500-.700 and also allows a lot more 97.2ppg for >500 to 98.7ppg vs >700. The bottom line here is a lot more scoring is likely than the low posted total, make the play on the over.

The San Antonio Spurs have dominated the Portland Trailblazers taking a commanding 3-0 lead in their 2nd round best of 7 series. There has not been a competitive game in this series as of yet. teams up 3-0 in a playoff series are 24-15-3 ATS since 2003. The interesting thing to note here is they are 8-0 to the under off of 3 straight wins by more than 10 points. They have fallen shy of the total by an average of 17.6ppg! It should also be noted that any team with 3 series wins, that is off of 4 or more consecutive overs is 12-0 to the under in their next game, beating the posted total in this case, by an average of 15.7ppg. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 46-14, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 36-11 in the playoffs, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a playoff situation which is 36-11, make the play on the over.

The San Antonio Spurs really took it to Portland in their pair of home games. They came out firing, and put up 65 points in the first half of game 1, followed by a remarkable 70 points in game 2. Portland is now a desperate team, one that has to answer the opening bell at home right from the jump, and dig in on the defensive end early, and show San Antonio it won't be so easy here. teams beaten in 2 straight games by 32 or more combined points are 21-8-1 to the under in the playoffs in their next game. I also have a 46-13-2 situation on the under in this game. Make the play on the under

The LA Clippers are averaging 111.6ppg at home this season including the playoffs. The 9 ga112.7ppg. mes they have played here vs opponents over .700 have led to an 8-1 mark to the over, where they have scored even more at 112.7ppg with the totals soaring well over the top by an average of more than 15 points per game. neither team interested in the half court here, lots of possessions, and play makers on the floor. The Clippers led the NBA with 19 games played at home this season seeing both teams ring up 215 points or more, and 13 of those were against winning teams.  play on the over.

This game fits multiple total situations, make the play on the over.

Looking back at the Thunder's mediocre performance on the offensive end vs the Grizzlies, has played a role in keeping the total down here in this one. One thing the thunder likes to do is get out on the break as do the LA Clippers. These teams combined for an average of 40 fast break points in their regular season meetings, while 5 of the Thunder's 7 games vs the Grizzlies saw 26 total fast break points per game. teams playing in round 2 as a home favorite to a total of 200.5 to 215 and both teams are on 3 days or less rest have gone 28-4-1 to the over, including 4-0 to the over in series game 1. Clippers are now 17-5 to the over on the road vs a winning home team in their last 22. They are also 52-25-1 to the over following an ATS loss in their last 78, including 8-1 to the over in the playoffs. make the play on the over.

This has been a pretty even series with both teams exchanging blows, but there has been one feature, that has ridden Toronto in this series, as well as the regular season. The Raptors are a much different paced team at home, where they turn it up a notch, than they are on the road. Looking at their games at home with a posted total of 195.5 or less they are 14-7 to the over at home this season, including 9-2 in their last 11. Their games have averaged 197.7 points in the 21 games. That is a far cry to how these same games have played out on the road, where they have played 15 of 20 to the under to a total of 195.5 or less. The average points scored in those games has been 182.9, or 15 points less per game. Now, how has that been reflected in this series? The 3 games played between these teams in Toronto have seen an average of 9 more shots per game attempted vs the games played in Brooklyn, clearly played at a different pace. That has translated on the scoreboard as well. The games played in Toronto have out-scored the games played in Brooklyn 458-432, or by 9 points a contest. edge is on the over in this one.

This game fits a totals situation which is 46-12-2 in the playoffs, the play is on the under.

This game fits a playoff situation which is 45-11, and the play is on the under.

Here are the facts. Both games in Memphis saw an average of 165 total points scored prior to overtime. Last year 178 in the 2 games at Memphis. Westbrook and Durant are 94-253 at 37.2% and way too many shots, and have jacked up 80 from deep only to hit 19 at 24.0%. Westbrook averaged 4.65 attempts from deep in the regular season, and 7.6 in this series, Durant 6.06 and 8.4. That means 10.71 has become 16! They are making less! These are a pair of selfish players dominating the ball and right now killing their team, and have also turned the ball over 9 times a game between them. Shots up, assists down. Deadly in the halfcourt. This game fits a playoff situation which is 45-11 on the total, and the play is on the under.

Teams that are posted as a home favorite off at least 3 unders in the playoffs to a total of less than 195 are 50-31 ATS to the under, and there is a subset which is 42-16. Make the play on the under