This game fits a situation which is 476-373 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 205-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 205-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 80-39 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 80-39 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Sacramento Kings are 25-45 on the season, and once again heading nowhere, but to their credit they have continued to play hard, and have been rewarded with 3 straight wins. This team has changed their approach to the game late in the season. The Kings are playing at a much faster tempo as they have averaged 106.1ppg in their last 13. Phoenix at 104.2ppg is certainly not shy about getting up and down the floor either, and this game looks like it could turn into a track meet, and history supports that as well, as this game fits the profile of a 31-6 ATS situation that plays on the over. Sacramento's running style has them at 6-0 ATS to the over in their last 6, and overall at 9-2 to the over in their last 11. make the play over the total in this one.

The Brooklyn Nets and the Charlotte Hornets were both playoff teams a year ago, and both appeared to be teams on the rise. Here we are late in the season, and if it ended today, neither would be in the playoffs. One of the biggest weaknesses of both these teams has been 3pt shooting as they both enter connecting at under 33% for the year. That sets the stage for  a situation that plays on losing teams facing each other that connect on less than 33% each from deep. This situation has been a huge over indicator at 163-101 to the over since 1996. Brooklyn cmes in at 4-0-1 to the over in their last 5 vs a losing team, Charlotte at 6-0-1 to the over in their last 7 vs a losing team, and none of the last 7 meetings between these clubs have stayed under the total. Make the play on the over.

This game also plays into a strong over tendency, that has a poor team, .250 or less, off 3 straight spread losses, and a modest total that is set in the 190s, and squaring off vs a team better than .500. These teams have played 32-5 to te under in the last 37 opportunities. Knicks recent play vs a winning team further enhances that, as they are 8-2 to the over in their last 10, and the Cliippers are 10-4-2 to the under in their last 16 vs a team below .400. Make the play on New York, and the under in this one.

The dream of the playoffs ended a long time ago for both these teams. Sacramento hpwever, has delivered big in their last 2 games, where they won both games as a home dog. That often can inspire a team that otherwise doesn't have a whole lot to hang their hat on, and it usually transforms itself to renewed intensity on the defensive end. Teams with a losing record that win 2 straight as a home dog have come back to go 22-6 to the under in their next game. The Sixers have not gotten out of the 80s in their last 4 road games that ended in regulation. The Sixers in fact average just 87.2ppg on the road this season, compared to 94.7ppg at home, and are 43-27 to the under on the season, and 11-23 to the under vs a losing team. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 71-23 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 252-136 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 252-136 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 71-23 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 36-8 ATS and the play is on the under.

The San Antonio Spurs are one of a very few NBA teams that show up on the defensive end of the court, even against brutally bad teams. I think the Knicks, and their 13 season to date wins, qualifies in that thought process. So let's review the Knicks. The Knicks have been a bad team all season, but dealing Shumpert, shutting down Melo, and dealing Amare Stoudemire, as left this poor team bankrupt of talent. The end result is their last 22 games have seen them average 89.3ppg. We then take a look at the Spurs. Since 1996 the Spurs when facing a team that has a winning percentage of less than .250, do their thing on the defensive end. They have allowed just 89.4ppg. What is also worth noting is they score less than 100ppg on average at 99.7ppg. All other teams allow 94.3ppg in this spot and score over 100ppg! This game clearly belongs in the 180s in terms of the total, and there are several points of value here. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 70-23, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 70-23, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 252-135, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 140-76, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 120-58 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 120-58 ATS and the play is on the under.

All of today's plays are based on strong historic situations and line value. The play in this game is on  the under.

All of today's plays are based on strong historic situations and line value. The play in this game is on  the under.

All of today's plays are based on strong historic situations and line value. The play in this game is on  the under.

This game fits a situation which is 62-17 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 51-24 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 203-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 203-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 251-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 53-26 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 31-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 55-8 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 56-32 ATS and the play is on the under.

Once the NBA schedule reaches its final stages, and the calendar turns to March, the games for elite teams tend to take on a playoff atmosphere. That tends to lead to under the total. What we have seen is sizeable totals, just above the normal range, don't get there as games in March and April played between teams that are better than .625 on the season to a total of more than 195 but less than 210 have gone 91-43-4 to the under, including 12-3 if there is a home dog involved. Play this one under the total.

This game fits a situation which is 304-217 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 97-52 ATS, and the play is on the under.

 This game fits a situation that is 45-8 ATS, and the play is on the over.

 This game fits a situation which is 242-125-4 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 242-125 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

 This game fits a totals situation which is 242-125-4 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 200-122 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 242-125 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 795-655 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is171-105 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This situation plays on the fact that we have a couple of teams off a peak performance and feeling good about themselves. That usually energizes a team, and energy usually translates itself to the defensive end of the court. We have one team off a 20 or more point home win, and at home again, while the opponent is off a 10 or more point road win, and feeling good as well. Let's look at each step here:

1) team off a home win of 20 or more points

2) Opponent off a road win of 10 or more points

3) Total is 191 or higher (don't want too low of a total)

4) Team that won at home by 20 or more did so by not allowing their opponent to score more than 98 points.

5) This game is not a division game (familiarity factor)

This has gone 14-55-2 O/U showing the under at 79.7%! The z-score here is 4.87. This plays on Boston/Charlotte under tonight.

This game fits a totals situation which is 122-81 ATS and the play is on the under

This game fits a totals situation which is 55-14 ATS and the play is on the over

HIGH TOTAL, GOOD TEAMS, LOOKS LIKE AN UNDER IN THIS SPOT:

Once the total reaches the 200 mark in the NBA, it starts to be considered a high total. The fact is in the last 24,144 NBA games there have been just 7,527 of them with a posted total of as much as 200, or just 31% of all games played.

Tonight we have a game of interest that exploits these high totals set by the oddsmaker, when we have a team off a road favorite loss, and back on the road again.

Teams tend to play with more focus after a loss, and are hungrier, and typically dig in defensively above their normal level of play. So let's lay out exactly what we are looking for:

1) Total is 200 or more.

2) Team lost their last game as a road favorite, and on the road again

3) Both teams are ovr .500

4) Line +3 or more (a true road dog)

These teams are 18-54-1 O/U or play to the under 75% of the time! This has gone 4-1-1 ATS so far tghis season, by taking the under. Tonight we have Toronto vs Dallas active in this system to play under the total.

This game fits a very active and long term total situation which has played to a 791-653 mark to the under. Make the play on the under.

This is a late season NBA system and let`s call it the 55 system. This game is based on triple 55`s as you will soon see. 1) Game number is greater than 55 2) Winning percentage is greater than 55 3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55 4) Division game 5) regular season 6) Winning percentage is higher than opponents winning percentage Once you get past the all-star game,and past game 55, and you have a match up of teams better than .550, both teams typically need the game to advance or maintain themselves in a given playoff seed. That usually leads to a playoff type battle in the half court, and the under has dominated. These teams under the above conditions, especially in a division game, have played to a 105-170-4 O/U mark. That means that the under has covered 61.8% of the time in a huge sample size of almost 300 games. This is the 19th season for this system, and it has never produced less than 50% winners! Tonight Chicago and Milwaukee will fit the bill, and likely play a game that falls shy of the total.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

After a considerable layoff, NBA teams seem to be bankrupt on the defensive end in their first game back. It seems that in the right spot, scoring rules the roost. This situation depicts that, with the following parameters: 1) month =2 2) rest greater than 3 3) Home favorite 4) opponent rest is less than 5 5) Winning percentage greater than .420 6) Not a division game These teams are: 52-16-1 ATS covering to the over covering 76.5% of all games!  This plays on San Antonio/Golden St. over tonight.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 9 of their last 11 games on the season, and appear to be getting defensive in the process. The Spurs have held 29 opponents to under 100 points this season, and the value shows up on the total in this game because they are playing in the Eastern Conference vs Toronto. The West has better teams, better offenses, and on the season the Spurs have allowed 99.1ppg to Western teams, and just 93.9ppg vs Eastern teams. Those numbers fit in well for San Antonio who has played 4 straight to the under on the road vs a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, while Toronto is now 8-1 to the under in their last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record. This game also fits a very long term totals situation which is 463-366-12 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Chicago Bulls hammered New Orleans on the road last night 107-72. That gave the starters a lot of rest as they head to Orlando with no rest. Starters played a grand total of 128 minutes, or an average of 25.6 minutes per starter, or just about a half of a game. That should leave them fresh on no rest. The Bulls games have averaged 201.8 points this season, and overall a 25-25 record on totals in their 50 games. That does not begin to tell the story. They have seen home games average 205.2 going 17-9 to the over, but have been a much different team on the road, where they average 198.7 and 17 of 26 have played under the total. The last 33 times these teams have met, the highest posted total was 206.5, and the last 7 meetings none higher than 191, yet the last 13 have seen a 10-3 mark to the under. This game fits a huge 234-121-2 ATS total situation. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a huge situation that is 110-57-5 ATS ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors have averaged 117.7ppg in their last 18 games while going 15-3 straight up. That has bettors flocking to the betting window, to get in on the over for their long anticipated encounter vs the Atlanta Hawks. These have been the best two teams in the NBA this season, and the winner will be crowned the best team in the league, at least for now. Golden St. has a profile of scoring that is diminished with the quality of opponent and it is continuously worse. Their games average 208.5ppg in all games on the road, 204.7ppg vs teams that are better than .600, 202.8ppg vs teams better than .650 and finally 197ppg vs teams that are better than .700. They also fit an under situation which is 229-135 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 159-101 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 53-18 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 158-101 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Milwaukee Bucks have made a quick and decisive turnaround from a year ago, and look to be a playoff caliber team,  Bucks boast a 37-15-1 ATS mark when taking on an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game in their last 53 in this spot, so it appears they have been able to take advantage of a team not committed to the defensive end. Toronto had a taxing last 2 games on the road, as both went to overtime, and the commitment to the defensive end tonight will likely be lacking. Milwaukee allowed 100+ in 2 straight games prior to holding Portland to 88, but that is misleading, as their was an inordinate amount of shots taken in that game with 171. This game fits a totals situation which is 120-69 to the over, and is already 3-0-1 this year. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Miami Heat are constituted completely different from a year ago, as LeBron James has moved on, and now Dwayne Wade is sitting as he is out with yet another injury. Hassan Whiteside has been a great story for the Heat recording a triple double a week ago, and contributing 16 points and 24 rebounds his last game. Despite his efforts the rest of the Heat roster, outside Chris Bosh is pedestrian at best, and although they held a strong Dallas offense to 92 points, they managed just 72 themselves, and outside of Whiteside, they were 22-77 from the floor. Boston has a lot of young legs looking for minutes, and held high scoring Houston to just 93 points on the road, but the continued struggle of the offense (87 points), left them short. Overall there are more working parts for both of these teams on the defensive end, as players fight for minutes, and know the best way to get them is to play hard on the defensive end. heat brings in a 20-6 mark to the under in their last 26 on the road. Sunday NBA games have historically played under the total, and this one fits a situation that is 196-121-7 to the under, and is 14-7 so far this season. Play is on the under.

The San Antonio Spurs have had injury issues all season, and have not put together the type of season we saw them do last season that took them all the way to an NBA Championship. Despite all that they are still 30-17 on the season. The one thing this team has always been able to lean on is their defensive intensity. It is no surprise that their 9-2 run over their last 11 games has been ignited by the defense, as they have allowed 90.5ppg in the 11 games. The Clippers after allowing 100+ in 10 of 13 games, have now allowed 100+ in 7 of 16, and have turned things up defensively themselves. That provides the signature for a situation that is active for this game tat has been 52-18 to the under in the last 70 occurrences. Maake the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 121-81 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 55-13 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 119-69 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 460-364 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 195-120 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 194-120 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 460-363 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 159-103, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 60-24, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 60-24, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 226-134, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 194-119, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 34-7, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation based on both teams on ATS winning streaks, and higher totals. This is 58-23-1 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

A team playing to a total of 200 or higher, that covered their last game facing a team on a 6 game or longer ats streak play over to a 57-23 mark in the 80 occurrences in the NBA since 1996. Make the play on the over.

Teams off a road division win, and now playing inside the division again, are 157-100-3 to the under since 2004. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a strong total situation. When you have 2 bad NBA teams from game 20 on both with a winning percentage of less than .350 and both on 0 rest, there is no defense, and the over is 57-23 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits part of my NBA X-MAS DAY SITUATION that has been 16-4 the last 10 years including a subset of 8-0, make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 53-13, an the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 454-361 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 191-117 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 191-117 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 57-22 ATS situation, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a 76-28 ATS situation, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a 159-99 ATS situation, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 151-97 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 189-117 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 190-99 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 53-12 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 189-117 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 241-156-5 ATS and the play is on the under