There are a combination of factors going in this one that points to a high scoring game. The Knicks are a bad team, that plays their best vs top teams, and in the 9 games they have been a 10+ point dog this season, they have averaged 110ppg, and their games have averaged over 220 points. The Knicks are also playing very uptempo right now, and have allowed 110 or more in 9 of their last 10, leading to 9 overs in the 10 games. The Cavs have been playing up as well with 14 of their last 21 going over, and have averaged 108ppg in their last 12. The Cavs went through 18 games at home with no team topping 101, but then the Knicks came in and got 106, and suddenly the Cavs have allowed 104ppg in their last 5 at home. Cavs have been 7-0-1 in their last 8 after scoring 100+ and 9-1-1 when their opponent has allowed 100+ in their last game. I'll go with the over in this one.

The New Orleans Hornets have been bringing a little extra to the defensive end of the court at home. Whenever there is a total on this team that reaches the 200 mark there is a lot of value on the under. Over the last 2 seasons the Hornets have had a home game with a posted total of 200 or more and they now stand at 17-3 to the under in the 20 games. Magic at 41-18 to the under in their last 59 on 1 day rest, as well as 14-3 to the under playing an opponent who allowed 100 or more in their last game. Under gets the call here.

The LA Clippers are not a good road team, or do they defend well vs the good teams. Teams with a winning record have averaged 106ppg against the Claippers, and when you look at how they have defended the top 10 offenses on the road, the Clippers are allowing 112.4ppg. That has led the Clippers to play to a 37-14-1 mark to the over in their last 52 road games vs a team with a winning home record, and that includes 17-5 to the over as a dog of 5-10.5. Phoenix after a win of 10+ has played 23-9 over in their next game. I'll go with the over here.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

The Lakers have long been considered an offensive first team, but this team is very good on the defensive end. The last 12 Laker games have seen the opponent crack the 100 mark just 1 time. They have also packed that defense and taken it on the road, as they have allowed just 90.3ppg in their last 7 away from LA. Mavs have held 5 straight teams to under the century mark as well, and after allowing 131 to the Lake Show last time, they are going to bring some defensive grit to this one. Lakers have played to an 8-0 mark to the under in their last 8 posted as a dog. Dallas has been 7-1 to the under as a small favorite of up to 4.5. This one stays under the total.

The Phoenix Suns offense has hit a skid, and things won't get any easier without the services of Steve Nash who will miss tonight's game with the Thunder. Nash and his 18ppg, and more importantly, floor leadership, will be missed here, at a time the Suns can least afford it. The Suns after going 26 games in a row scoring 100+ in 25 of them, and the one they didn't, they got 99, have suddenly averaged just 96ppg in their last 3 and that was with Nash in the lineup. The trend has been steadily down for the Suns who have now played 8 straight unders. Nash has not missed a game this year, and the Suns have scored 92 points or less just 4 times. The last 8 games he has missed the Suns scored 92 or less in 4 of them. Thunder has played under in 19 of 26 vs teams with a winning record, and that includes 5 of 6 played in Oklahoma City. The top 11 offenses in the NBA playing in Oklahmoa City this season have truly been cut down to size. The Thunder has had 10 home games vs the NBA's top 11 offenses, and 7 of them failed to top 90 in pre-overtime points. They have averaged 90.4ppg. I'll go with the under here.

The Nuggets are a race horse basketball team and seldom play to a total of under 200, and when you see it, the offer of playing over has been money. The Nuggets have played just 8 games all season to a total of under 200 and they have turned in a 7-1 mark to the over. This is a team averaging 109.2ppg in their last 13 here. They have also played 5 straight overs vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage. This series has seen 6 of the last 8 go over the total, and I like this one to go over as well.

The New Orleans Hornets have lost Chris Paul, and their last 2 games have played under the total. What is more important here, is the Hornets have played 17games with a total posted at 200 or more at home in the last 2 years, and have gone 15-2 to the under. The Pacers in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning record have topped out at 102 points, and have averaged just 93.8ppg. Overall the Pacers offense has been slowed by the better teams, and in their last 20 against a team with a winning record they have played to a 17-3 mark to the under. Hornets always more defensive minded at home have now played to a 28-13 mark to the under in their last 41 in New Orleans. These teams have also played 20-6-1 to the under in their last 27, and that includes 9-1 at New Orleans in their last 10. I'll go under in this one.

Anytime the Suns hit the court, the thought is over, as they score a lot of points, while playing little defense. The Suns have been 100+ in 13 straight games. The problem is the oddsmakers juice their totals knowing the public score, and love for offense and overs. Despite averaging 108.4ppg in their last 5 they all have gone under, as have 14 of their last 21 on the road. Dallas is 6-1 to the under as a favorite of 4.5 or less, and 4-1 under off a loss of 10 or more points. I like this one to stay under the total.

Memphis had it all going as the offense was clicking as good as ever. They went through a 19 game stretch averaging 108.6ppg. Things have come to a screeching halt, and this young team has taken a confidence hit, and the points that were coming so easy, no longer are. Memphis has gone from that 108.6ppg team to a 94.6ppg team over their last 11. Raptors are scoring 100+ with regularity, topping the century mark in 17 straight. Despite of that it takes 2 teams to top a big total, and just 3 of their last 9 would have reached this number. These teams have historically played under as 16 of the last 19 meetings have failed to top the total, and that includes the last 6 in Toronto. Under gets the call here.

The Detroit Pistons have not scored 100 points in a game for 28 straight games now excluding overtime. That makes this total appear to be extremely high, considering they are a favorite in this one, and would need to get to 100 to push this one over. The Pistons have also only allowed 5 teams to reach the century mark on them at home all season. T-Wolves have been an under team when they have had 3 or more days rest, as they have gone 9-3 to the under in their last 12, with the Pistons at 15-5 to the under in that same situation. These teams have played 9-3-1 to the under in their last 13 meetings. I like this one to stay under the total.

These teams matched up in San Antonio less than 2 weeks ago and managed just 192 points between them. San Antonio is not going to let the Nuggets run up and down the floor here. The last 13 road games the Spurs have played has seen just 2 go over 100 and one of those scored 101. (excluding OT). The last 13 road games has seen them allow just 93.6ppg. The Spurs vs teams with a winning record, are now 22-6 to the under in their last 28, and 7 straight unders vs teams with a winning percentage of .600+. Nuggets are now 20-6 to the under vs teams with a winning record, so combined vs winning teams, these clubs are 42-12 to the under. I'll back the under in this one.

The Bucks are a redhot team, and over their last 15 games have averaged 102ppg. The Pistons used to be a top defensive club but over their last 34 games have allowed 98ppg. Bucks have flown over the total against poor teams at home. They have put together a 29-12 mark to the over playing at home against teams with less than a .400 road winning percentage. Overall they are 36-17 in their last 53 home games vs any team with a losing road record. The last 22 played in this series has produced 15 overs, and 7 of the last 10 played in Milwaukee. I'll play this one to go over the total.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Portland injury woes have cost them dearly and they certainly haven't played the defense we have come to expect from this team. That has led to 14 of their last 18 going over the total. Mavs at 114ppg in their last 3 appear ready to exploit that weakness and send this one flying over the total. Couple flaws in that thinking, as the Blazers are 56-26-1 to the under after scoring 100+, and 14-4 to the under vs a winning team. The last 10 meetings in Dallas have seen the under get the money in 9 of them. This also fits a 156-91 under situation, live for this game, I'll back the under here.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

The Phoenix Suns rarely play a game with a total of 210 or less and are 5-1 to the over this season when posted at 210 or less, and are now 8-2 to the over since mid February of last year. This is a team averaging 112.3ppg in their last 10 at home. Bobacats after averaging just 82ppg in their first 12 this season, are much more offensive. They have averaged just about 99ppg since, and vs a Phoenix team not playing much defense I see them over 100 here. Bobcats at 38-17 to the over in their last 55 vs teams with a home winning percentage of .600+. I'll go with the over in this one.

The Phoenix Suns offense always generates an inflated total, but this is not a situation where their offense has flourished this season. The Suns on the road vs a team above .500 is averaging under 100 points a game. The Suns have been under 100 points just 6 times all season, 5 of those have been on the road vs a winning team! Jazz stepping up the defense at home vs winning teams, allowing under 100 a game as well. Suns now 8-3 to the under on the road vs a home team with a winning percentage of .600+. I'll play this one under the total.

The Memphis Grizzlies are definately a playoff caliber team, and have shown an explosive offense. The problem is when they face very good teams at home, they are slowed considerably. The Grizzlies at home vs .500+ teams (excluding Phoenix who plays no defense) have averaged just 94.1ppg. The Magic step up the defense against the better offensive teams, and have played under in 7 of their last 9 with a total posted at 200+. The Magic are also 68-33 to the under following a game where they scored 100+, and the last 5 between these teams played in Memphis have all failed to reach the total. I'll go with the under here.

The Philadelphia 76ers are purely a halfcourt team, especially at home, and it has led to 14 of their 21 home games going under the total. They have reached the 100 point mark just 5 times in the 21 games, and teams under .500 are averaging just 94.1ppg here. Pacers offense has failed to reach the century mark in 4 of their last 5, all of which have gone under the total, and following an ATS loss the Pacers are 24-11-3 to the under in their last 38. The last 6 meetings in this series have all gone under the total, and I'll go with the under in this one.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

The Chicago Bulls have finally found some offense. This is a team that scored a maximum of 101 points through their first 28 games. What has happened since has been remarkable, as the Bulls have scored 101,104,108,110, and 120 in 5 of their last 9. That means in the past 9 games they have equalled or surpassed their team high through the first 28 games 5 times! The Buls are a hot offensive team, and after a straight up win by 10+ they have followed by playing to a 22-6 mark to the over in their nect game. Wizards have played 7 of their last 8 vs the NBA Central to the over, and I like this one o play over the total.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a humiliating home loss to Orlando by 21 points. It is the tendency of a poor defensive team, one that allows over 103ppg to come back after a huge blowout loss, with some defensive fire. These teams have followed up by playing to a 121-68 mark to the under, good for 64%. Toss in the fcat that the Sixers are 24-11-1 to the under in their last 36 as a hme favorite of 4.5 or less, and you have a solid under play in this one.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

This is yet another in a series of games that are part of a huge system I have discovered. This system has beaten the spread continuously and is based on just a single condition, and has now over 2,000 games in the data set. This is one of very few plays I make blindly on systems, but with over 2,000 games in the data and just one condition, it is a blind play. This is a play on the OVER in this game, as it clearly continues to thrive.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

This is yet another of the 2,000 game one condition system that has won every season over the past 5, and one of few systems I will play blindly on. When you have a system that has proven over 2,000 games that it is a huge moneymaker, and based on a single condition, you don't hesitate to jump in, and thus is the case once again in this matchup. I will follow along, and will play this one, like the others to go over the total.

This is yet another of the 2,000 game one condition system that has won every season over the past 5, and one of few systems I will play blindly on. When you have a system that has proven over 2,000 games that it is a huge moneymaker, and based on a single condition, you don't hesitate to jump in, and thus is the case once again in this matchup. I will follow along, and will play this one, like the others to go over the total.

This is part of the 2,000 game one condition system that has been a winner for each of the past several years, and I will continue to play it throughout the season, regardless of the results, as there is just too long of a track record of these games to set aside no matter what. These games have cashed with a very high winning rate and with that many games in the databank and 1 condition, it is as good as it gets. This is a play on the over.

The Magic played an ugly game vs Boston earlier in the season resulting in an 83-78 win. The Celtics will be without Paul Pierce for a cople of weeks, and that means they are likely to turn things up on the defensive end. The Celtics as it is allowing just 92.5ppg in their last 11. C's now at 27-10 to the under vs teams with a home winning percentage of .600+. Magic comes in with a 63-30 mark to the under after scoring 100+ in their last game. I like this one to go under the total.

The Bucks have played a few low scoring games, which is holding the total down here. The bottomline is this is not a good defensive team, and the Wizards do one thing, they score. This game also fits a system that will be active here that has produced overs at the rate of 83% and has covered close to 70% of them by 7 points or more. I'll take the line value here as the Bucks appear defensive after a few low scoring games, but they are anything but. Over gets the call in this one.

The Lakers have gone over 100 points in 19 of their last 24 games, and I look for them to do the same here tonight, the question becomes, how much can the Thunder contribute? Chances are they will score enough, as in the role of a road dog of 5-10.5 points they have played to a 21-7 mark to the over. This is also part of the system that has won every year that has over 2,000 games in the database, that says the over is the right way to go here. I agree, and will play this one over the total.

Bulls may have crashed and burned worse tan any team in NBA history at home last night. They blew a 30 point lead midway through the 3rd quarter, and fell to the Kings. Not sure how much defense this team will be playing in this one, and it is also a system qualifier. This is part of the 2,000 game system that wins every year that says play over the total, and I will follow suit, and make a play in this game to go over the total.

What is happening to the Spurs? This team is playing different, and noone is noticing. Since Tim Duncan has been in a Spurs uniform, they have never scored 100+ in more than 5 games in a row. That is until now. The Spurs have topped the century mark in 7 straight games, and certainly playing differently than the half-court playoff type offense they have run for years. They have also topped the 100 mark in 10 of their last 14, and this is definately a team playing much more offensive. Clippers going for 112, and 120 in 2 of their last 3 don't mind turnng up the offense. Both clicking right now, and this also fits a dandy over system that has connected on over 65%, which means I'm on the over in this one.

The Charlotte Bobcats continue to draw low totals from the oddsmakers despite the fact the team is completely different from their 12 game start that saw them average 81.4ppg. The 13 games that have followed show the Bobcats now at 99ppg. They have consequently played 11 of their last 14 to the over. The Knicks certainly aren't a team that is afraid to get up and down, for that is their game plan. Mike D'Antoni is a run and shoot type coach, so I expect this one to fly over the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats have not lived down the 59 point performance in their opener vs the Celtics, and the oddsmakers are always hedging their totals down. After averaging just 81ppg in their first 12 (excluding OT), the Bobcats have become much more efficient on offense and have averaged 98ppg in their last 12, a full 17ppg higher. Their totals have not been adjusted accordingly. The first 12 they played to an average total of 180.5, and in the last 12 they have played to an average total of 189. The oddsmakers have adjusted up 8.5 points a game, while the Bobcats are scoring 17 a game more, so 8.5 points of value remain here. Utah scored 83 in their last game. On the season after scoring in the 80s or less, they are averaging 115ppg! The last 3 years they have averaged 106ppg after scoring in the 80s or less, and have never had a game following those bad offensive outings of less than 96 in the last 3 years. I like this one to go over the total.

The Phoenix Suns have played 11 of their last 13 games to the under. The biggest reason is they have been facing totals that have averaged just under 220 points. Now that they have played under so frequently, the oddsmakers have over adjusted this one down to a more than manageable 201, 18 full points below their previous 15 game average. It is now the lowest total the Suns have faced since the All-Star break last February. The last 9 teams with a winning record that has faced the Suns topped the 100 mark, and the Suns are 100+ in 21 of 25 games, and 38 of 44 going back to last year. How crazy is the adjustment? Phoenix played in Portland in late March last year to a total of 221, and the game featured 238 points scored. Since the end of January last year, the Suns have only faced 6 totals that were under 210, and all 6 have gone over the total. This one is way off, and under gets the call here.

This is another one of those chosen few blind system plays. I do not play very many systems blindly, but this one is powerful, and has a track record of winning each and every yer. There is now over 2,000 games in the database, and it is based on just 1 condition. When this system comes up, I will automatically make it a play, and it is a mid-level 5 unit play on the OVER in this game. As the season goes on there is likely to be fewer plays from this system, but there will continue to be some.

This is another one of those chosen few blind system plays. I do not play very many systems blindly, but this one is powerful, and has a track record of winning each and every yer. There is now over 2,000 games in the database, and it is based on just 1 condition. When this system comes up, I will automatically make it a play, and it is a mid-level 5 unit play on the OVER in this game. As the season goes on there is likely to be fewer plays from this system, but there will continue to be some.

This is one of those featured games that is part of a system that wins every year and has over 2,000 games in the database, It is one of a chosen few systems I play blindly, and it has had winning seasons every single year, and I'll stay the course with this system through the season. It points to the over in this matchup between Washington and Indiana. I will play this game to go over the total for a mid-level 5 unit play.

I have been playing this system that now has over 2,000 games in the database and is hitting an extremely hgh percentage for a one condition system with so many games, and such a long history attached to it. It is one of few systems I play blindly, but this system can easily be trusted as it wins every single year. The system is alive for this game, and the play is a medium sized 5 unit play on the OVER in this one.

I have been playing this system that now has over 2,000 games in the database and is hitting an extremely hgh percentage for a one condition system with so many games, and such a long history attached to it. It is one of few systems I play blindly, but this system can easily be trusted as it wins every single year. The system is alive for this game, and the play is a medium sized 5 unit play on the OVER in this one.

The Phoenix Suns really had the offense rolling like a machine over their first 17 games of the season. The Suns scored at least 100 points in all 17 games, and were averaging an amazing 112ppg. They have hit a bump over their last 4 games, 3 of them they failed to hit the century mark. The Suns have had an easy schedule to start the season, and just 7 of their first 21 games have been against teams with a winning record. That 112ppg average vs winning teams dips to 100.7ppg, a full 12 points a night less. The Mavs have played 8 games vs teams with a winning record, and are allowing just 93ppg. Suns at 9-1-1 to the under after an ATS loss, and I like this one to go under the total in a medium sized 5 unit play.

This game features the 90/10/15 rule. That is a system that plays under when you have a posted total in the 190s, a home team off a double-digit win, and a visitor off a 15+ point win within their division, thus the 90/10/15. It is a system sporting a 3-0 mark this season, and has historically done extremely well at 65% the last 12+ years with well over 150 plays in the data set. Top it off with the fact that Cleveland is 42-17 to the under after an ATS win, and we have a mid-level 5 unot play on the under in this one.

This is another one of those blind plays that have what is now approaching 2,000 games in the database. It is a 1 condition system that is 8-1 now this season and continues to shine. It has been a winning formula that has produced a profit every season for years and one of few systems I play on the blind, simply because there are so many games in the database it warrants a blind play. This will be a medium level over play, for 5 units.

This is another one of the games that is a blind system play that has won big for a number of years. This system has just about 2,000 games in it, and has delivered winners every year. It is already 7-0 this year (pending last night's results), and one of few I play blindly. It is based on 1 condition only, and it will be live for this game between the Wizards and the Pistons. The system play in this one is on the over, and it is a medium 5 unit play.

This is a huge market inefficiency game. I have this one in a database that has 2,000 plays in it, and with just 1 condition, it has delivered the money 56.4% of the time. There is likely no other play out there that hits that high of a percentage with just about 2,000 games in the database. I will be playing this one accordingly, and the play here is on the over for a high level 5 unit play. I will be playing this type of game blindly the entire NBA season.

While these teams have a high offensive ceiling the total has now been priced out of what would be expected when these clubs meet. These teams rode a 9-1 OVER streak, but that was then, the now has seen 5 of the last 7 go under the total, as the numbers posted by the oddsmakers rise. We now have a total of 233.5, a number reached by these teams just 4 times in the last 17 meetings, and one of those was 234. The reality is over the last 2 seasons these teams have averaged scoring just 223.5 in their 6 games, and have topped this total in just 1 of them. Warriors went for over 125 last time out, and they have played under in 5 of 6 after posting 125+, as well as playing 9-2 to the under after a straight up win. Denver 7-1 to the under after allowing 100+, and 12-4 under after scoring 100+. Nuggets have seen 7 games this season where both teams scored 100+, and the game following has averaged just 201.7 points. Under gets the call as a low level 5 unit pick.

The oddsmakers are aware of things here, and that is the fact that these teams meet one time a season in New York, and the last 8 between them has seen the total go over. So what do the oddsmakers do? They tax the total to death, in hopes of catching the unsuspecting playing the trend, and penalize them for doing so, pushing all the value here on the under. The Suns for the last 5 years have been a fast paced uptempo team, and the Knicks for the past couple years as well. The highest posted total over the last 5 years when all games between these clubs have seen a total warrant at least 207.5 has been 219.5 in New York. When looking back, these teams combined to average more points between them a year ago at 214.6, than this year's 213.9, yet the total posted here is 5.5 points higher than a year ago! Those 8 straight overs saw these teams reach this total just once in the 8 games, without OT. Bottomline, this one shows value on the under, and that is my call a small 5 unit play.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are definately going through some growing pains, and it will be a while before they can be competitive. They are getting schooled by teams that like to run such as Denver,Phoenix, and Golden St. They have played 4 games against these uptempo running teams and have allowed an average of 127.5ppg. While not scoring more than 95 points against any other team, vs these defenseess running teams they have averaged 105.8ppg. This one is set to low, and I'll play this one over, as the Nuggets really have the running game going at 115.7ppg in their last 6

The Charlotte Bobcats after scoring 100 points in a game without the benefit of OT just 1 time this season, has scored 104 and 116 in their last 2 which is putting a large bump in this total. They did it vs 2 very uptempo teams, but the truth is, vs teams with a top 10 defense in points allowed, their games have combined to score 164.4 points in 7 tries. The high water mark was 183. The Cavs have played 5 games vs teams averaging under 95 points a game, and has allowed an average of 85ppg, and in their last 55 games after an ATS win the Cavs are now 38-17 to the under 69%. Bobcats at home vs the NBA elite teams that have a .600 winning percentage or higher, shows a 21-7 mark to the under in the last 28. I'll go big on the under here.

This series has been ugly for a longtime, as these teams hate each other. The last 24 times these teams have met the under has prevailed in 23 of them, and that includes all 4 games last year. The average final score is 10 points less than the posted total in all the games combined. This is one of very few blind plays I make in the NBA, but one that has never let me down. I'll go with this one to go under the total, which appears to be too high once again.

The New Jersey Nets are off to a horrible start at 0-10, will face the Indiana Pacers at home tonight seeking win #1. The Nets have trouble scoring, but they will be playing a team that doesn't defend much, and likes to run in the Pacers, and this total is set way to low. The Pacers since the All-Star break in 2007, have played 118 games, and just 13 have ended with fewer total points than this total, and this is the lowest total they will have played to in any of the 118 games. When they have played to a total of 196 or less, which has only been 12 times in 118 games, they are 9-3 to the over. The Nets have played half their games vs teams ranked in the top 11 in points allowed. They have managed just 76.2ppg against those teams, but they have played 5 teams that rank below that level and have averaged 92.8ppg. They have only played against 1 team that averages over 100 points a game, and that was Denver who scored 122 against them. This game goes over the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats have had a dreadful start offensively, and the oddsmakers have taken notice, but the fact is, this isn't low enough, especially vs a Portland team that is snuffing out opponents, in half-court style games. Blazers allowing just 80ppg on the current road trip entering its 4th game here, and this one figures to play in the low 80s at best. Blazers now 8-2 to the under in their last 10 as a road chalk and Bobcats 20-6 to the under vs a team with a road mark of .600+. I'll go with the under here.

The Miami Heat showed in the playoffs last season they are all about defense, and will have a methodical Cavs team that will allow for a half-court game here. The Heat have held 5 of 7 teams in the 80s or less, and it has led to 6 straight unders. The Cavs are off an emotional game with Orlando last night, and they have played on back-to-back nights 3 times this season, with all 3 going under the total. The Cavs have also played 7 of their last 8 as a road favorite to the under, and are now 37-15 to the under after an ATS win. Maimi has built off of big straight up wins, by bringing the "D", as they have played under to a 17-5 mark off a win of 10 points or more, and are now also 14-2 off of any straight up win! I like this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats were offensively dead to start the season, and through 4 games, not considering overtime, they averaged under 75 points a game. They have begun to find a semblance of offense, and have now averaged over 90 in their last 3, while allowing 90 as well. The Pistons once a methodical defensive team, have some different parts, and allowed 100 on back to back nights already this season something rarely seen in Detroit, but it is a new era. Bobcats playing 7-1 to the over on the road vs a team with a winning home record, while Pistons 10-3 to the over as a favorite of up to 4.5. I'm going OVER in this one

The Pacers have played 4 straight to the under, but that is going to change tonight with the run and gun Golden St. Warriors hitting the floor. Golden St. put up 146 in their last game on the floor vs Minnesota which is only going to reinforce their willingness to run here. The Warriors last trip to Indiana resulted in a game that featured 247 points scored, and the return trip at Golden St. the game featured 237 points scored. Two years ago these teams played to a 242 point total in Indiana as well, that makes 4 straight between these two in Indiana over the total, and 6 of the last 7 in the series. Over gets the call here.

The Chicago Bulls who were racing up and down the court in the playoffs last year vs the Celtics are a different team this season, as they have slowed down the pace considerably, and don't have been Gordon to create a shot as the shot clock winds down and it has shown up in the scoring column. The Bulls have not reached the century mark through their first 6 games, coming no closer than 93. This after averaging 107ppg in the playoffs last year, and scoring 100+ in 12 of their last 15 during the regular season. The Nuggets are off a huge 25 point loss. This game fits an UNDER system that keys off certain teams off a loss by 20 points or more that has been followed by an under 72.9% of the time with 60 games in the database. I'm playing this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats are an under bettors dream, as they have scored under 80 points in 3 of their 4 games, with the other one ending in OT, as they scored 82 before the OT sessions. Teams that score under 80 points a game for 2 straight, have played under a total set at 180 or lower 63.2% of the time. The Atlanta Hawks are not an offensive team, and if you look at their playoff resume from a year ago, it is a true indicator of what to expect in this one tonight. The Bobcats can't score, but they do defend tough, especially at home, and I look for this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats have been anything but offensive, and they have failed to top 82 points in 3 straight games in regulation. The Nets have shown no ability to stop anyone, allowing over 104ppg. This one sets up perfectly, as the Bobcats offensive woes, have led to a total that is really trimmed down tight. The Bobcats were posted to a total in the 170s a total of 12 times a year ago, and played 7-4-1 to the over, and down the stretch 4 of the last 5 went over. This one is based on a huge system of mine, that feeds on 3pt shooting, and with over 1900 games based on just a single condition, it has produced 57.1% to the OVER. I will follow and play this one over the total.

The Oklahoma City Thunder open the season at home vs the Sacramento Kings. The Kings like to get the ball up and down the court, and finished in the bottom 5 in the NBA in points allowed, and were one of just 5 NBA teams that allowed 106ppg or more. Looking at how Oklahoma City fared vs these teams is quite revealing. The Thunder played 15 games vs the 5 teams in the NBA that allowed 106 points or more on the season a year ago, and those games averaged 220.1ppg! That is a full 14 points beyond the total set for this one. The 15 games saw 12 finsih above the total posted here, or 80%. The Kings played 24 games vs teams that allow as many or more points a game than the Thunder, and those 24 games produced an average of 218.9ppg! That is 13 points above this posted total. I like this one to go OVER the total.

The Boston Celtics will open the season at Cleveland, in a game that could be a prelude to the NBA Eastern Conference finals. The Cavs have added Shaq to try to put them over the top, while the Celtics have added Rasheed Wallace, as an insurance policy to Kevin Garnett's balky knees. What the additions should do for each team is make already good defenses, better. The Celtics have been about defense, and when they play against the best, it is most visible. The C's on the road last year vs the top 10 NBA teams in winning percentage 12 times. Those 12 games saw under score the cash to the tune of a 10-1-1 mark. The Celtics were also 14-4 to the under playing on the road with a total in the 180s last year. These teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Cleveland to the under. I'm going with this one to finish under the total.

The Orlando Magic have their back up against the wall, and will have to lay it all out for this one or they are going to be on the golf course next week, instead of the hardwood in LA. This series has been decidedly defensive, so much so that 2 of the games went into overtime, yet still managed to come in well under the total. It would be a very comfortable pick to ride the under here, but in the NBA playoffs, what happened in yesterday's game, isn't as important in determining the next game as historical records in like circumstances. I played game 3 over and it was the highest scoring game of the series so far, as both teams shot the lights out of the arena. So here we go to game 5, with the total a long distance from where it opened in game 1, and many will be on the under here. I won't be one of them. Game 5's in the NBA finals, often dtermined to be a pivital game have shown a high propensity to play as one of the highest scoring games of the series. The last 7 years have shown game 5 to be either the highest scoring game of the series of the first 5 played, or the 2nd highest. The 7 games have seen 6 of them play over. Last year the Celtics and Lakers were playing unders at the same rate, 3-1 under through 4 games, but game 5 went over. The '07 series went just 4 games, but in '06 afyter 3-1 to the under, Dallas and Miami played the highest scoring game of the series through 5 games. The '05 series between Detroit and San Antonio did the same thing. The last 7 played in Orlando have seen 6 of 7 go over. This one will surprise many and go OVER the total.

MREAST have you gone mad? Didn't you see the first 2 games of this series? The defense has reigned supreme, and both games have gone way under the total, with game 2 surviving OT, and still went under? Yes, I have seen every minute, and so has the public, and so have the oddsmakers. History leads to a valuable lesson, and failing to recognize it, puts you on the romantic side of comfort, but the losing side of the game. I have NBA Finals history that goes back to 1991. There have been 7 occasions where the first 2 game totals either both went over, or both went under. Game 3 is the first venue change, the series takes on a completely different characteristic, and the result was that 6 of the 7 times, game 3 produced an entirely different flow to the game. It produced the opposite results of what occured in games 1&2. I also must point out that the Lakers last 4 trips into this building has seen them score a minimum of 103 points, and they have averaged 107.5ppg. There is a reason for this. When the so-called fair line is set for game 1, and there are 2 consecutive results that deem that the line was not fair, the reaction of the odds-makers follow the sense they will get from the public, and that is, "This is going to be a defensive series". The result is a line that is suddenly 8.5 points from the original fair line. Since 1991 there has never been an 8.5 point line movement on the total from game 1 to game 3. The last 5 times these teams have met in Orlando the games have all gone over the total, and that is my call here, OVER the total.

I dug long and hard to find the valued side last night, and it turned in another winner. I have done even more to ensure, at the very least I am on the valued side for this one as well, and hopefully I can show you why this is the most valued play in tonight's game. let's go back and look at this total for game one. The books, and the public sw this one as being very physical, and defensive, and the opening game total was set at 184. The public still liked the under and backed it, even though the public is almost exclusively over oriented, they went under 51.36%, which doesn't seem like much, but rarely is a public consensus on the under. The series took on the OVER trait, and has produced 4 of 5 to the OVER, forcing the hand of the oddsmaker to go 8.5 points higher on what was deemed a fair total for these teams. So the question becomes this. Did the oddsmakers miss this one, and the new total is fair, or did the public force their hand, to move this 8.5 points? My answer is a little of both. This game however has been more public, as the same bettors that sided under in game 1, have been seduced well onto the otherside, where they favor the over, despite an 8.5 point line movement. The public is close to 70% on the over. Not me! Let's take a look at the Denver/Laker series. It followed a similar course in the opposite direction. The series opener was 214, but 4 of 5 unders pushed the line down to 208.5. Not quite as much as the total moving up in this case, but there is a reason for that. The oddsmakers know the action is going over, so they hedge the few points difference here, while they pad the OVER for the Cleveland game, a full 3 points more, than they reduced the total in the LA series. Last night the game went over, but it would have fallen under to the opening "fair" total. Now we have to look back and see if this is a similar pattern in NBA 3rd round 6th game playoffs. I take you back to 1998 when Indiana had played 4 of 5 to the OVER, and the opening 1st game total was 178. Because of the over signature on the series, the oddsmakers jacked the total to 186.5 for game 6. The game played UNDER, but also note, it would have gone OVER the game 1 "fair" total. The 1993 Chicago Bulls had played 4 of 5 overs in their 3rd round series, and the total went from game 1 at 183, to game 6 at 191. This game also went UNDER the total, but again, would have gone OVER the game 1 "fair" total. Contrary to popular belief, I am of the opinion, that the last game, or 2 games ago, does not have anything to do with the next game, except in the mind of the public. They go by what they see, and what they see is points, and the oddsmakers aren't foolish, they will put out a line that puts the expectation of the public OVER on the wrong side of the value, and tax the total, and in this case almost 9 points from the original. NBA 3rd round action has seen 26 series go to game 6 since 1991. There have been 19 of the 26 that have been 3-2 to the UNDER or better, while there have been just 7 that have been 3-2 to the OVER or better. All together this round through game 5 has seen the unders go 88-43. Game 6 has seen the under prevail at 15-10. When it has been an over series through 5 games, which mentioned earlier has occured 7 times, game 6 went under in 5 of them 71.4% of the time. Eastern Conference game 6's have gone under in 10 of 14, or 71.4% of the time. Lots of line value here on the UNDER and that is my play here

I took an extraordinary long time to look over this game, and concluded one thing. These teams have both underachieved all series long on offense, and I will give some credit to the defenses on both sides, which are underrated, but not the total reason. I have seen all of these games, and there have been an inordinate amount of easy looks from 3 missed. It has resulted in 69-221 from beyond the arc from both sides. 31.2%, yet these teams are averaging 207 points a game. These teams have also both underachieved from the free throw line, shooting a combined under 70%. It has been no different from the field where they are shooting 44.1% combined. These teams are both better than that by a long shot. If the shooting percentages stay the same and they hit their combined average from the free throw line of 77% instead of just under 69%, we are talking about a series that has played 3 unders to this line, not 4 overs! What was deemed a fair line for game 1 at 214.5 has shrunk to 209 some 5.5 points below, and there is definately value now leaking into the over here. The Nuggets are certainly capeable, as they have averaged 115ppg in their last 18 home games, and the Lakers for all their struggles, have yet to be held under 100. Carmelo Anthony is hobbled a bit, but long before he was struggling, and is now 28-81 in the last 4 at 34.5%. He shoots 40% and your talking about 3-4 more points a game. The last 4 games these teams have averaged 74 free throws a contest, you can excuse the misses from the field, but at some point the top players in the world are going to hit their average. If we are talking about teams that were hitting 7% over that average instead of 7% under it, the free throw line alone, would of added 5 points a game. So this line gets juiced down based on sub-par numbers across the board, a full 5.5 points from game 1. There is too many ways, that this has an opportunity to go over, and I'm calling for the highest scoring game of the series, and OVER gets the call.

The Cleveland Cavs have to consider themselves lucky they aren't down in this series 3 games to none. If not for a miracle shot by LeBron James as time expired in game two, that would be their fate. Sometimes having a player like LeBron James can be both an asset, and a liability. James has taken 40.3% of all the Cavs shots in this series, which leads to a lot of standing around by other players, and consequently, they have shot just 38.3%. The free throw line shows he has even taken a higher percentage of shots, than the 40.3% he is credited with as he has gone to the line 46 times, while the rest of his teammates combined just 32 times. That tells me LeBron is approaching 50% of the teams shots at the basket, and the fact the rest of the Cavs aren't getting to the line at all, means all their shots are coming from the perimeter. The Magic have had similar problems trying to get Howard involved in the offense, as he has taken just 8 shots in each of the last 2, despite having 8 offensive rebounds. That probably means he is getting more like 6 shots a game from the regular offense. This leaves us with a perimeter oriented game, with 2 good defenses, and game 4's have been notorious for playing under in the NBA Playoffs. Since 1996 when the total is in the 180s, the under has been 82-42 in the 4th game of an NBA playoff series, or 66.1% of the time, 6-2 this season. The 124 games have seen 51.6% of them come short of the total by 7 points or more! Higher seeds that enter game 4 with a 1-2 record have not played an over to any total since 1991, they have gone 8-0 to the under. Orlando is now 27-11 to the under in their last 38 games at home, while the Cavs have yet to play over on the road this year in the playoffs, 5-0 to the under. I like the UNDER in this one.

The Denver Nuggets are a perfect 10-0 ATS in the playoffs. They have been absolutely playing at breakneck speed, with the entire philosophy heard by Coach Karl in the huddle, is not to worry about the score, we wear teams down in the 2nd half. Taking a look at the sililarities here, last year Denver came into LA for game one of the playoffs. They has scored 100+ points in 22 of 23 straight games, and it turned into a total track meet, finishing with 242 points scored. The Nuggets posted 114 in that game, despite the fact that they failed to reach 100 in both regular season games in LA. This year the Nugget offense has touched the century mark in 25 of their last 26 (not counting the season finale when all the starters sat). The lakers are a bit worse than average when playing against top 10 offenses at home. They had 17 such games this season vs teams that would go on to average 104.68ppg, and they allowed 106ppg. These same offensive teams allowed an average of 103.31ppg, and the Lakers feasted on the uptempo style, and averaged 115.6ppg against them. (Denver allowed 101ppg this season, in that same neighborhood. The Lakers low output in those 16 games was 103. When you look at the Lakers vs teams that averaged allowing within 1.5 points higher and lower than Denver this season, they averaged 111ppg at home in 14 games, still way over their average. There are just 7 teams in the NBA that take 40%+ of their shots during the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. The Lakers played 8 games at home vs these fast paced teams, and the average total points scored was 221.2ppg. Both Denver and LA are 2 of the 7 teams. Looking at the Houston series, and the lack of scoring, can be looked upon as a Laker offensive slump, but Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The Lakers are gonna look forward to running, which is when they are at their best, and they will have a willing dance partner in Denver. This one goes over by plenty.

There has been a stark contrast of styles over the last 15 or so years in the NBA. The West has had more in the way of offensive teams, while the East has had a lot of ugly teams, meaning defensive oriented teams. The numbers bear that out, as when you get to game 7 in a series, your going to see what teams do best to try and close it out. Since 1993 these styles have imposed their will, and left a signature on game 7. The West in game 7's from the conference semi-finals on, have averaged 198.2ppg, while in the East, an amazing 20 points per game less at 178.4ppg. The Celtics and the Magic, have gone toe-to-toe on the defensive end in all but 2 games, and those 2 games, were the one-sded affairs, that I would expect to see in game 7. The Magic are now 21-8 to the under in their last 29 games, and 14-4 under in their last 18 vs teams with a winning ercentage of .600 or higher. Boston is now 35-17 in their last 52 to the under, vs teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher. I'm playing this one to go under the total.

The denver team is clciking in a big way, and at home their offense has been really turning it up a notch. The Nuggets have recorded 15 straight wins at home, and have topped the century mark in all 15, and averaging an impressive 115.5ppg in the process. Although the defense has been improved from what we have seen in the past from this team, it still doesn't translate vs the better offensive teams. The Nuggets allowed 103.3ppg to teams that averaged 100+ points on the season, when playing them at home, and of the 19 games that represents, only 1 team failed to score at least 97. Dallas has not had trouble scoring in this series, averaging 108ppg, but like everyone else, they can't stop or even slow down the Nugget attack. The Mavs have now played over to a 19-7 mark after allowing 100 or more in their previous game. I like this one to fly over the total.

The Denver Nuggets may have taken the heart out of the dallas Mavericks with a daggar 3 as time was running out in game 3 that gave them a 1 point win, and complete control of the series, now up 3 games to none. Denver has had mismatches inside with quicker interior players, and their offense has been rolling in the playoffs. The Nuggets outside of the season finale, when everyone sat, has scored 100+ in 23 of their last 24 games, to an average of just shy of 112ppg. Dallas has now played over to a 17-4 mark when their opponent has reached 100 points in their previous game. This one also sets up nicely with a perfect 100% trend that points to the OVER. A trend that has not lost in an NBA playoff game since 1991!!!! I will back the over in this one.

The Houston Rockets caught the Lakers off guard in game 1, but the Lakers have had their way offensively since, as they are averaging almost 110ppg in the last 2. They got to 108 last game despite Pao Gasol, and Kobe Bryant combining to go just 15-39 from the floor, under 40%. The Rockets also suffered a blow as Yao Ming sprained his ankle in game 3, and could miss game 4, or be rendered less effective. That opens the middle for the Lakers with guard penetration, and Gasol, and Bynum inside. Houston will play a bit faster without Yao on the court, as they don't have to wait for him to run their offense. I will play this one to go over the total.

The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled offensively on the road in the playoffs. They have been held to under 80 points in 3 of their 4 games, while scoring just 81 in the other game. Those numbers represent 4 of the 5 lowest scores for this Atlanta team on the road all season! I look for that to change tonight. This is a team that scored 96 or more against the Cavs in 3 of the 4 games they played during the regular season, and scored 96 in both games at Cleveland. The second game in round 2 of the playoffs has averaged 10.1ppg more than game 1 over the last 6 years covering 24 games, a total of 243 points more scored in game 2 than game 1, across the board. The Cavs offense is averaging 98ppg at home in the playoffs, and in their 44 home games on the season they average 102ppg. If Atlanta can get to 80, which they have done in 41 of 45 road games this season this one is going over, and I'm playing it to do just that. I will go OVER the total in this one.

The Lakers were stunned in the opener by the Rockets at home, and I look for this one to be a much different game in terms of shooting the ball. Kobe bryant took 31 shots, the rest of the starters took 40 combined. The porblem was Bryant wasn't connecting, and when his teammates did get open looks from beyond the arc, they proceeded to go 1-11. This is a much better shooting team than that, and I expect those numbers to change tonight. Kobe himself shot 1-7 from deep. Despite the lousy shooting numbers this game came within 1 point of going over the total, which is set the same for tonight's game. Houston didn't exactly shoot the lights out from beyond the arc either, as they were only 5-18, good for 27.8%. That means these teams combined for 7-35 from deep or 20%, and yet the game was still an eyelash from going over. The Lakers were also a dismal 63% from the stripe, so one more made 3, one more made free throw and that one goes over, even with the horrible numbers. Houston, despite their defensive label, is 5th in the league in free throw shooting, and in the top 10 in 3-pt FG percentage, which would surprise most. I look for this one to go over the total. As an additional note to this one, game 2's in the semi final rounds have out-scored game 1's by 10.1ppg over the last 6 years. A total of 243 points more in the 24 games.

The Cleveland Cavs led the NBA in fewest points allowed on the season at 91.3ppg. They rolled out of series one holding the Pistons to 78ppg in their 4 game sweep. Atlanta had all kinds of problems scoring on the road at Miami, where they averaged just 77ppg and never topped 81. Teams that have had 5 or more days rest are 28-17 to the under in game one of a series since 1993. The Cavs are also 41-20 to the under after an ATS win. The Cavs love to walk the ball up the floor, and on the defensive end they have been a menace all season especially when they are focused which they will be here. This one goes under the total.

The Lakers have been a solid under team as the season progressed, and finished with a 20-9 mark to the under in their last 29 games, including the playoff series with the Jazz. Houston has long been a defense first team, and they certainly aren't gonna want to make this a track meet agianst the Lakers. The Rockets finished playing under in 21 of their last 34. The under has hit on 62.2% of the time when at least 1 team has had 5 or more days off at the start of the next playoff series, those numbers date back to 1993. The Rockets are also 19-7 to the under in their last 26 vs a team with a winning percentage over .600, that is 73.1% of the time. The Lakers are an identical 19-7 to the under in their last 26 games as a favorite. I like this one to go under the total.

The Denver Nuggets went through an offensive slump in the middle to latter part of the season that saw them scoring under 100 points in 9 of 14 games. They had actually played 2 games where they were held to the 70s, very uncharacteristic of this team. They have recovered better than ever. The New Orleans Hornets finished the regular season holding opponents to 94.3ppg. They could not stop the offense of the Nuggets, especially in Denver. The Nuggets averaged 109.3ppg in the 3 games played in Denver, a full 13 points a game better than the Hornets allowed on the season. The Nuggets have now won their last 13 at home, and are averaging 115.2ppg in the process. The Mavericks are a well rested team coming into this game, and that has led to a lot of scoring as their last 7 games playing on 3 days or more rest have all produced overs, and they are 20-8 to the over in their last 28 conference semi-final games. I'll back this one to go OVER the total.

This has certainly been an exciting series with overtime deciding 4 of the games. I would expect Boston to become the team that made them the number 2 seed in the East, and that is a defensive stallwart, and no place better to exercise that will than in the Garden in game 7. This series has played over in 5 of the 6 games, but overtime is the leading contributor, not the games themselves. Prior to overtime in 3 of the games, neither team scored more than 97, not enough to put this one over the total. Boston will impose their will and best defensive effort in this one, and I'll go with the under here.

The Miami Heat find themselves down in the series 3 games to 2, and face elimination at home tonight. This is the place where big players, such as Dwayne Wade usually step up and come up big. wade averaged 30.2ppg during the regular season. That is the key to this game and I believe the secret to the totals set in Miami games. The magic number for Wade is 25. When he tops the 25 point mark, the Heat play over games, when he does not, they struggle. The Heat are 20-10 to the over playing at home when Wade tops the 25 point mark, and 3-7 when he doesn't. They are also 16-5 on the season to the over playing to totals in the 180s, and that includes 12-1 at home!!! The 2 games in the series that Wade went for less than 25 were unders, and of the 3 that he topped 25, 2 went over and 1 failed by 1.5 points, but would have gone over this total. The Hawks have played 9-3 to the over after a straight up win by double-digits. I like this one to go over the total.

The Chicago Bulls had one bad game in the series where they scored just 86 points. To put that in perspective, it was their lowest scoring output at home the entire season. The Bulls are an offense first team, especially as the season went on, as they scored 108.5ppg in their last 19 home games. The problem is they are not stopping the Celtic offense, as even if you discount the points Boston has scored in overtime, they are still averaging 102.2ppg in this series. This number has come down, putting the pendulum of value on the over now. Boston is 20-7 to the over after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Bulls have now played over to the tune of 21-6 vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage. Over gets the call here.

There will be 10 players on the court when this game starts, but it truly all boils down to one player, and that is Dwayne Wade. Wade simply means more to the Heat than any player in the NBA does to his team including Kobe, and LeBron. Wade has taken just about one-third of all the shots the Heat has put up in this series, and he has put up 36% of all the 3's they have taken, if he is off, it is goodnight Heat. If he is on, the Heat are going to be scoring. The tale of 2 teams for Miaimi. When Wade scores 25+ the Heat average 102.2ppg as a team, when he averages less than 25, they average 90.3ppg. When Wade scores 25+ the total in Heat games goes over to a mark of 40-18, when he doesn't just 5 of 24 go over! So the question, which is the key to this game, will Wade hit for 25 tonight? The answer is a resounding yes! Wade is worth 12pts a game to the Heat when he is having at least a reasonable shooting night and scoring 25, and this total has sunk off of a very low scoring game by 7 points from game 1. The Heat have played to a total posted in the 170s just once all season, so this is completely unwarranted at this point. This is only the 3rd time for the Hawks, as their lowest has been 179 as well. All 3 of these teams games with a total in the 170s has gone over. Miami has now played 21-6 to the over after a straight up loss, an indication that Wade comes back strong. I look for this one to go OVER the total.

This series has produced 3 overs and 1 under so far, but that isn't the true story of what has been happening. These teams without overtime would have played 3 unders and 1 over, so the numbers get a bit twisted. The Bulls have been playing with 7 players for the most part, and tonight will likely be without Ben Gordon, who tweaked a hamstring, and even if he does get some minutes, his overall effectiveness, and explosiveness may be diminished. That takes 24.5ppg away from the Bulls, and leaves them with 6 reliable players, and you'd have to think they are not going to try to make this as uptempo as past games in this series, which have still, for the most part, failed to topple the total in regulation. I look for this one to play under the total.

The New Orleans Hornets were destroyed in the 2 games at Denver, and their defense was certainly lacking. The Hornets play a different level of defense at home, especially against the good offensive teams. They played 15 games at home vs teams in the top 10 in points scored in the NBA and they allowed an average of just 95.5ppg in those 15 games, to teams that average 105.3ppg, or a full 10 points less per game. The 15 games featured total points scored of just 192.3ppg on average. Denver had problems scoring on the road vs the NBA's top 10 defenses in points allowed. They averaged 104.3ppg on the season, but when playing on the road vs the best 10 in the NBA in fewest points allowed they managed just 93ppg on the road, or 11 points less. They played 13 games against these teams, and the average total was 188ppg. This game will be much lower scoring, and there is lots of value on the under here, and that is my call.

This series over the years has been a war, and with the Pistons down 2-0 in the series, the one thing they have to call on is their defense, and I expect to see it in full force here. These teams have played 23 regular season games in a row to the under, except for 1 overtime game. They have produced gaves in the playoffs in the 140s, and typically play an ugly style game, which is usually the words used to describe a defensive struggle. This one figures to be a very low scoring affair as the Pistons step up the defensive intensity with their backs to the wall. I will play the under here.

The Boston Celtics will be without Kevin Garnett for their series against the Bulls, and may be without him for as long as they survive the playoffs. What that changes more than anything for the Celtics, is their defense. When Garnett was patrolling the middle, the Celtics played under to a mark of 33-23 with Garnett in the lineup, but without him, they played 18-7 to the over. They are a completely different team. The Bulls caught fire late in the season, and it was a rejuvenated offense that made the difference. Setting aside their last game, when they sat some regulars, the Bulls averaged 107.6ppg over their last 20. The Bulls have also played over to a 20-11 mark in their last 31 with a total posted under 200. This one goes over.

The Miami Heat will meet the Detroit Pistons tonight in Miami. It has been announced Wade won't play tonight for the Heat. Wade after scoring 50 points 25 games ago, has become the Heat offense, as he has averaged nearly 35ppg in the last 25. So dependant, that consider this. Wade is averaging 30.2ppg on the season, and when he gets his average of 30 points, the Heat have been 29-9 to the over, when he doesn't they have been 13-27 to the over! No Wade no points, lots of unders. Since his 50 point game I spoke about above the dependency has increased, as the Heat have been played all 10 of Wade's games under, when he scored less than 30, his average. Tonight there is no Wade at all, meaning there will be a lot of adjustments being made on the fly. The Pistons have had trouble scoring all season, and with the bench getting more minutes, the points will come slower. Under gets the call.

The Miami Heat will meet the Atlanta Hawks tonight in Atlanta. These teams will meet in the first round of the playoffs, starting in Atlanta, so their fates are already determined. It is unlikely they are going to show each other anything in this game whatsoever, and it has been announced Wade won't play tonight for the Heat. Wade after scoring 50 points 25 games ago, has become the Heat offense, as he has averaged nearly 35ppg in the last 25. So dependant, that consider this. Wade is averaging 30.2ppg on the season, and when he gets his average of 30 points, the Hat have been 29-9 to the over, when he doesn't they have been 13-26 to the over! No Wade no points, lots of unders. Since his 50 point game I spoke about above the dependency has increased, as the Heat have been played all 10 of Wade's games under, when he scored less than 30, his average. Tonight there is no Wade at all, meaning there will be a lot of adjustments being made on the fly. Atlanta has become a top 10 defense. and their last 12 games at home vs a team with a winning record have seen 10 go under and just 2 go over. I'll go under in this one.

The New Orleans Hornets are a strong defensive team, and have now played under in 13 of their last 16 games. The Dallas Mavericks have not found their offense of late when matched up on the road vs a team that is in the top 10 in points allowed in the NBA. Their last 5 in this situation shows the Mavs putting up just 84ppg. The Mavs as a dog have also now played 11-1 to the under in their last 12, and the Hornets have been 17-5-1 to the under vs the Southwest divisiom. These teams have also played under in 5 of their last 6 meetings. I'm going with the under in this one.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are not a scoring team, and when they lost Al Jefferson, the team tried running to compensate, but saw that wasn't the answer. The Timberwolves have played 28 games this season vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the NBA, and the games have averaged 207 points per game. That is a full 17 points from where this one is listed. The Suns have been slowed the last 2 games, and this Minnesota team is averaging just 93.4ppg in their last 22. They have also not allowed more than 110 over their last 19, and includes games with Golden St., Denver, Utah, Dallas, New York, and the Lakers. I like this one to go under the total.