| NBA Archive |
| Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
|
03-01-20 |
Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 234 |
Top |
122-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER |
|
03-01-20 |
Raptors v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
118-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 196-139-7 ATS and the play is on the UNDER |
|
03-01-20 |
Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 244 |
Top |
111-91 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER |
|
03-01-20 |
Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 218 |
Top |
93-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER |
|
02-28-20 |
Wizards v. Jazz OVER 232 |
Top |
119-129 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Washington Wizards have no regard on the defensive end of the court. They love to run and shoot, and play to outscore the opponent regardless of who they are. When they play on the road they are allowing 130ppg on the season. Put them in a high total of more than 229 points and they are 15-2 ATS to the over with an average of 251.1ppg scored beating the total by +16.88ppg. (11-0 ATS in their last 11. Make the play on the over. |
|
02-25-20 |
Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 231 |
Top |
108-97 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 90-51 ATS, and the play is on the under. |
|
02-24-20 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 236.5 |
Top |
123-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under. |
|
02-24-20 |
Bucks v. Wizards UNDER 241 |
Top |
137-134 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under. |
|
02-21-20 |
Suns v. Raptors OVER 228 |
Top |
101-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
The Toronto Raptors saw their 15 game winning streak come to an end just prior to the All-Star break. They will begin the 2nd half at 40-15 on the season. The Raptors have piled up the points vs bad teams this season as they average 120.3ppg vs an opponent that is .400 or worse. That has led them to a 16-4 mark to the over in those 20 games. This game also fits a 90-48 ATS mark situation on the over. Make the play over the total in this one. |
|
02-20-20 |
Nets v. 76ers OVER 216 |
Top |
104-112 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
The NBA All-Star break is over, so is their anything in terms of a situation that has developed after the long layoff? Today we will take a look at a situation that has occurred the 1st game back from the All-Star game, apparently defense is not part of the mindset when we have this scenario:
1) 1st game after the All-Star break
2) Home favorite of more than -3
3) Winning percentage greater than .390 and less than .730
4) Since 1999
NBA0152: AASB and p:BASB and HF and line39 and WP1998SU:100-41 (7.69, 70.9%) ATS:74-66-1 (0.55, 52.9%) avg line: -7.1O/U:90-48-3 (5.56, 65.2%) avg
Defense is obviously still on the break as these teams have crashed the total at a 65.2% rate covering 141 games. Tonight consider Philadelphia/Brooklyn OVER the total.
|
|
02-16-20 |
All Star LeBron v. All Star Giannis UNDER 306.5 |
Top |
157-155 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
I generally do not weigh in on the NBA All-Star game as it has become a defenseless dunk fest. The rules this year are completely different. Each quarter is for charity with the winner of each quarter receiving 100k for their charity. The final quarter will be played without a clock. The game will end like this. Whatever the score is after 3 quarters, there will be 24 points added to the team that leads after 3 quarters, and when that total score is reached, the game ends. EXAMPLE: The West leads 110-105 going into quarter 4. Add 24 to the 110 and the game will be won by the first team that reaches 134. (110+24). This new format means each team will likely play competitive basketball at least in the final 4 minutes of each of the 1st 3 quarters, and all of the 4th quarter. That is 24 minutes of real basketball potentially. It also means that the 4th quarter is going to be very low scoring. It is conceivable that the team that is leading wins the 4th quarter 24-14 for a 38 point quarter. The last 8 NBA All-Star games has averaged 337 total points. If you strip down a 4th quarter that will likely play out to 50 points or less, as opposed to 84, that is at least 34 fewer points off that average, as well as 12 competitive minutes in the first 3 quarters, that should negate significantly more points. I see this as a great opportunity on the UNDER. This is a real play and on the record: NBA All-STAR GAME UNDER 304.5 -105
|
|
02-11-20 |
Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 232 |
Top |
105-116 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
NBA VERY GOOD TEAMS = UNDER:
Everyone likes to watch a game between a pair of very good teams. When it comes time for such a game in the NBA, the defense, which is often absent from most NBA games often takes center stage. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at how that plays out. There is a bias in such games in the NBA as we take a look at total results when both teams are .600 or better, with a home favorite: WP >= 60 and o:WP >= 60 and HFSU:1855-912 (5.37, 67.0%) ATS:1412-1299-56 (0.02, 52.1%) avg line: -5.3O/U:1265-1449-53 (-0.66, 46.6%) avg total: 197.5
We see the UNDER is a blind winner with a super sample size of over 2700 games.
We also see that when these games feature a high total it gets stronger:
WP >= 60 and o:WP >= 60 and HF and total >= 222SU:109-55 (5.95, 66.5%) ATS:79-80-5 (-0.26, 49.7%) avg line: -6.2O/U:62-95-7 (-2.75, 39.5%) avg total: 227.6
This goes live tonight in Houston as the Celtics invade. Consider the UNDER in this contest.
|
|
02-08-20 |
Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 |
Top |
125-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
The scoring has steadily risen in the NBA over the past several years, and there are some tendencies developing because of it. It has also become a league of super teams, such as the Lakers and some really bad teams like Golden St. What has happened in these ultra elite teams vs poor teams is the scoring is held down.WP >= 80 and WP < 100 and o:WP < 33.3 and total > 210 and season > 2014SU:41-5 (12.80, 89.1%) ATS:19-26-1 (-0.30, 42.2%) avg line: -13.1O/U:12-32-2 (-5.72, 27.3%) avg total: 222.7That also shows this subset when the bad team is even worse than bad: WP >= 80 and WP < 100 and o:WP < 25 and total > 210 and season > 2014SU:18-2 (14.10, 90.0%) ATS:9-11-0 (0.90, 45.0%) avg line: -13.2O/U:1-18-1 (-12.20, 5.3%) avg total: 222.6 Make the play on the UNDER.
|
|
02-07-20 |
Raptors v. Pacers OVER 218.5 |
Top |
115-106 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
The Toronto Raptors have won 12 straight games, the last coming from a 19 point deficit against this same Indiana team. It has been an offensive explosion as the Raptors have scored 120.6ppg in the streak. That has led to another streak, as they are 8-3-1 to the over as well. Indiana has been piling up the points as well, with 12 of their last 17 eclipsing the total. This game also plays into a situation that is 166-88 ATS to the over as well. Make the play on the over. |
|
02-05-20 |
Cavs v. Thunder OVER 221 |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Cleveland Cavs have dropped 11 straight games at home, and start to be on watch as the NBA record for the most consecutive home losses is 19. Defense has been just a rumor for this team as they have allowed more than 125ppg in their last 6 at home. Overall the Cavs are 18-3-1 ATS to the over in their last 22 contests. Oklahoma City is a food shooting team and an NBA team that shoots 46% or better on the season facing a team that allowed 55% or more in its last game are 522-437-12 to the OVER. (253-209-5 at home). Thunder piling up the points in their last 9 games as a home favorite at 8-1 to the over with an average totals score of 236.9. Make the play on the over. |
|
01-25-20 |
Mavs v. Jazz OVER 224.5 |
Top |
107-112 |
Loss |
-114 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 401-280 ATS and the play is on the OVER. |
|
01-24-20 |
Nuggets v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 |
Top |
113-106 |
Loss |
-102 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 401-279 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
01-22-20 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 215.5 |
Top |
95-107 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 164-84 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
01-22-20 |
Thunder v. Magic UNDER 210 |
Top |
120-114 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 275-176 ATS, and the play is on the under. |
|
01-20-20 |
Thunder v. Rockets OVER 229 |
Top |
112-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 398-275 ATS, and the play is on the OVER. |
|
01-20-20 |
Raptors v. Hawks OVER 229.5 |
Top |
122-117 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 398-275 ATS, and the play is on the OVER. |
|
01-19-20 |
Pacers v. Nuggets OVER 211.5 |
Top |
115-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is extremely strong and is 162-84 ATS. The play is on the under. |
|
01-16-20 |
Magic v. Clippers UNDER 216 |
Top |
95-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
LA CLIPPERS/ORLANDO UNDER 215.5 -107 194-145 ATS SITUATION
|
|
01-14-20 |
Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 241 |
Top |
110-121 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
HOUSTON VS MEMPHIS UNDER 240.5 -105 This game fits a total situation that is 185-111-4 ATS to the under.
|
|
01-10-20 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 231 |
Top |
121-134 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
This game fits a very active and long-term total situation that is 391-274 ATS. The play is on the OVER. |
|
01-08-20 |
Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
112-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 312-168 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
01-08-20 |
Heat v. Pacers UNDER 211 |
Top |
122-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 312-168 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
01-06-20 |
Bucks v. Spurs OVER 229 |
Top |
104-126 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 386-272-21 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
01-06-20 |
Pacers v. Hornets OVER 208 |
Top |
115-104 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 386-272-21 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
01-04-20 |
Spurs v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
118-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
|
This game fits a situation that is 190-143 ATS. Make the play on the under.
|
|
01-02-20 |
Grizzlies v. Kings UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
123-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 89-44-6 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-30-19 |
Suns v. Blazers UNDER 231 |
Top |
122-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
This game gits a total situation that is 190-141 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-30-19 |
Heat v. Wizards UNDER 228 |
Top |
105-123 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
This game gits a total situation that is 190-141 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-27-19 |
76ers v. Magic UNDER 210 |
Top |
97-98 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 265-158 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-22-19 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 209 |
Top |
128-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 304-164-10 ATS.Make the play on the under. |
|
12-22-19 |
Hornets v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
93-119 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 304-164-10 ATS.Make the play on the under. |
|
12-20-19 |
Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 223.5 |
Top |
107-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a tital situatyion that is 98-55-7 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-18-19 |
Grizzlies v. Thunder UNDER 219 |
Top |
122-126 |
Loss |
-104 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 189-139 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-17-19 |
Magic v. Jazz UNDER 207 |
Top |
102-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 24 m |
Show
|
This game fits one of my strongest total situations which is 412-248 ATS. The play is on the under. |
|
12-16-19 |
Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
107-109 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 188-139 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-15-19 |
Lakers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 |
Top |
101-96 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 187-139 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-15-19 |
Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 211 |
Top |
85-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 412-249 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
12-13-19 |
Knicks v. Kings UNDER 210 |
Top |
103-101 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
This game fits one of my top total situations which is now 303-161 ATS. Make the play on the under. |
|
12-11-19 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
117-122 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
This game fits a vert strong 410-247 ATS situation. The play is on the under. |
|
12-10-19 |
Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
92-97 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
This game fits a situation that is 76-44 ATS to the under: total > 199.5 and p:AFL and WP > 50 and o:WP > 50 and A and line >= 3SU:36-87 (-5.85, 29.3%) ATS:62-60-1 (0.95, 50.8%) avg line: 6.8O/U:44-76-3 (-2.47, 36.7%) avg total: 210.8 Make the play on the under.
|
|
12-09-19 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 219 |
Top |
110-102 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 185-139. Make the play on the under. |
|
12-09-19 |
Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 211 |
Top |
104-90 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 115-79. Make the play on the under. |
|
12-08-19 |
Kings v. Mavs OVER 216.5 |
Top |
110-106 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 302-161 ATS to the over. Make the play on the OVER. |
|
12-08-19 |
Nuggets v. Nets UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
102-105 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 409-247 ATS to the under. Make the play on the UNDER. |
|
12-07-19 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
104-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
|
This game fits one of my top total situations that is 260-154 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.
|
|
12-06-19 |
Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 233 |
Top |
91-119 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 9 m |
Show
|
When a pair of elite teams get together (both have a season scoring margin of 7 or more) and the total is set at more than 200, defense shows up. These games have seen the under go 494-371 ATS. Make the play on the under. |
|
11-29-19 |
76ers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
101-95 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 295-158 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
11-29-19 |
Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
110-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 64-36 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
11-29-19 |
Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
90-83 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 28 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 295-158 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
11-27-19 |
Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
98-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 294-156 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
11-27-19 |
Kings v. 76ers UNDER 211 |
Top |
91-97 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 294-156 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
11-24-19 |
Nets v. Knicks UNDER 215 |
Top |
103-101 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 301-186 ATS. make the play on the under. |
|
11-23-19 |
Raptors v. Hawks UNDER 224 |
Top |
119-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
This game applies to a situation that is 509-424 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
11-22-19 |
Hornets v. Wizards UNDER 235.5 |
Top |
118-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
This game is based on a team off a win and a matchup vs below-average teams. This particular situation is 90-49-7. make the play on the under. |
|
11-20-19 |
Rockets v. Nuggets UNDER 224 |
Top |
95-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
|
A pretty good test for each team in the early going as 11-3 Houston hits the road to take on Denver at 9-3. The Rockets are rolling with 8 straight wins and covers. This team has decided to play a little defense and they are 6-2 to the under in the streak. The Nuggets are all about defense and are 9-3 to the under in the season as 5 of their last 7 opponents have failed to reach the century mark. this hame also applies to a situation that is O/U:217-302-7 (-2.46, 41.8%)Make the play on the under.
|
|
11-18-19 |
Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 211 |
Top |
105-123 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
The Cavs and the Knicks are both in a massive rebuild and have just 5 wins between them on the season. There is a solid line in the sand for this Cavs team. When they allow 50% shooting or better they are losing 120.2 to 105.6 on average. When they allow less than 50% shooting against them they are 103.6 to 98.7 on average. A much lower scoring team. The Knicks have failed to shoot 50% in any game this season, and have now played 10 of 13 contests to the under. make the play on the under. |
|
11-13-19 |
Grizzlies v. Hornets UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
119-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
The Charlotte Hornets have been missing on the defensive end all season long. Their last 2 efforts have just magnified the situation as each of their last 2 opponents has shot 53% or better. This is typically the time the coach comes in and starts barking loud about the lack of effort on the defensive end and a team usually responds. A team that has allowed 53% or better in each of its last 2 games on the blind is 53.8% to the under allowing 101.6ppg. This game also fits an under situation that is 89-48 ATS based mostly on a pair of below-average teams taking the floor. Make the play on the under.
|
|
11-12-19 |
Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
85-111 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 292-155 ATS. Make the play on the under. |
|
11-11-19 |
Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 223.5 |
Top |
113-109 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
The Memphis Grizzlies at 2-7 on the season have seen the wins come infrequently. The issue is on defense as the Grizzlies are allowing over 220 points per contest. (225.7ppg over their last 3). the pace has also been fast and furious with opponents squeezing off 92.5 shots per game while they take an equal amount. Spurs no longer the defensive team e have seen in the past allowing 112.7ppg. This game also fits a situation that has worked for many years that is 548-381-17 O/U. Make the play on the over.
|
|
11-04-19 |
Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 230.5 |
Top |
134-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Minnesota Timberwolves are off to a 4-1 start to the season and will be tested tonight vs 3-2 Milwaukee. It will be a bit tougher as they will take the floor without Karl-Anthony Towns who is suspended. The loss of Towns means a loss of offensive efficiency. Towns is averaging 27.2ppg on the season shooting 54.4% as well as 52.9% from deep. He also dishes out 4 assists per contest. Both reams off easy double-digit wins. This game fits a situation based on that. When 2 teams get together that didn't have to extend themselves much in their last game defensively they typically bring defensive energy to the court in their next game. I have a 106-183-7 O/U situation based mostly on that theory. Make the play on the under. |
|
11-02-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 226 |
Top |
105-115 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
A pivotal early season NBA contest tonight in Milwaukee as the 4-1 Toronto Raptors invade. These teams met 10 times a year ago, so familiarity is certainly there. The one highlight of the 10 games from a year ago is just 1 time did a team shoot 50% or better in this matchup, so in 10 games (20 opportunities to do so), just 1 got to 50%. Moreover, 10 times a team shot 41% or less. These teams get after it on defense. It is what to expect tonight. When a pair of elite NBA teams hit the floor, the under outcome becomes highly probable. Looking back on this, when both teams come into an NBA game with a scoring margin of 7 or more points each, the games tend to go under at a rate of 64.1%. here is a look: total>=200 and H and tA(margin)>=7 and oA(margin)>=7SU:71-62 (3.04, 53.4%) ATS:64-65-4 (-0.65, 49.6%) avg line: -3.7O/U:46-82-5 (-4.23, 35.9%)Make the play on the UNDER.
|
|
10-25-19 |
Knicks v. Nets OVER 225.5 |
Top |
109-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
This game fits the situation of a total that is 183-105 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over. |
|
10-25-19 |
Wolves v. Hornets OVER 228 |
Top |
121-99 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 24 m |
Show
|
This game fits the situation of a total that is 183-105 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over. |
|
10-24-19 |
Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 224 |
Top |
141-122 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Golden St. Warriors for the first time in several years has more questions than answers. Kevin Durant is gone as is Klay Thompson (for now), as well as DeMarcus Cousins. Deangelo Russell arrives, but he was involved in more pick and rolls than the entire Golden St. team a year ago, so how does he fit with Stephen Curry? Draymond Green is going to have an expanded role on defense, and the Golden St. wings are not nearly as productive as in recent tears. The Clippers are loaded and Paul George isn't even playing yet. These teams averaged 237ppg in 10 meetings a year ago, but I see a lot more than 10 points missing from this one. I will also lean on this for support: total >= 210 and p:DW and p:margin >= 10 and A and line >= -2 and line |
|
05-17-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
103-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
Friday May 17th, 2019 Top Total Play · Under [545] Toronto Raptors vs. [546] Milwaukee Bucks Fri May 17th, 2019 8:35pm EDT Win/Loss Undecided Expert Preview: MREAST NBA FRIDAY PLAY OF THE DAY Expert Analysis: The NBA has fallen in love with the 3 point shot, and last game these two teams jacked up 86 of them. That is the 2nd most in NBA playoff history. That sets the marker for tonight`s game as we have a few foodies based on shooting a lot of 3`s in the previous game. When two teams combine to shoot more than 75 times from 3 in the previous game (looking at home team so we don`t get a double sampling), the next game is 140-98-4 to the under including 21-7 in the playoffs (11-3 this year). When the current home team shot 44 or more 3`s in the previous game they have played 96-56-4 yo the under in their next contest, including 13-1 in the playoffs. (6-0 so far this year. Those 14 games have seen the points scored fall short of the total by -17.18ppg. Make the play on the under. |
|
05-15-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 |
Top |
100-108 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
The Milwaukee Bucks threw yo 47 shots from 3-pt range in the series clincher vs Boston. A team playing at home that attempted 44 or more shots from distance in their last game is 95-56-4 ATS to the under in their next game. This is 0-12 ATS in the playoffs (including 0-7 if it is the first game of the next series), if the total is less than 228. Make the play on the under. |
|
05-12-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
Looking at this series there have been 4 straight games playing over the total. The public looks at the numbers and 67% are all in on the over. Despite all that action the total is set lower than it was for game 6. The odds-makers are a lot smarter than the public and rightfully so. This is going to be a small sample size simply because it does not occur all that often but looking at a playoff series that has seen the last 4 games go over the total, and the previous game total was higher than the current game, the under is 9-2 since 2008, failing to get to the posted total by -9.18ppg. Home favorites for a game 7 typically are lower scoring, cashing 57.1% on the under. I'll take a position here, and play on the under. |
|
05-07-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 213 |
Top |
98-124 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 62-34 in the playoffs and the play is on the OVER. |
|
05-06-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets OVER 220 |
Top |
108-112 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 547-378-15 ATS including 124-70-2 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the over. |
|
05-05-19 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210 |
Top |
116-112 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is based purely on a ling term situation that is 545-378 to the over, including 42-23 off an overtime game. It is also 122-70 in the playoffs. The play is on the over. |
|
05-01-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 219.5 |
Top |
97-90 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
I have 3 different situations tonight all lining up on the over. They are 56-33, 32-16, and 18-3-2. Make the play on the over. |
|
04-29-19 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 220.5 |
Top |
94-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
Round 2 playoff games are 24-3 to the over in series game 2 if game 1 went under. Make the play on the over. |
|
04-27-19 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 221.5 |
Top |
95-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
NBA ROUND 1...DID THAT JUST HAPPEN? WHAT IS NEXT?
The 1st round if the NBA playoffs come to an end today with San Antonio and Denver seeking the last spot into round 2. The 2nd round also starts tonight in Toronto as Philadelphia is the opponent. The 1st round was record breaking. The better seeded teams went a historic 27-12-1 ATS. That is the best 1st round result in round 1 ever. The lower seeded teams have won just 9 games in the entire first round. So what if anything does this mean?
It points to one big thing, The league ha become top heavy with the top 4 seeds having a huge edge vs the next 4 in the playoffs. Don't expect the dominance to continue. History says it won't. I looked at the top 3 years of netter seed dominance in the 1st round, and the 2nd round ended up pretty much 50-50 considering better seed vs worse seed.
There is one thing that changes dramatically in this round, and that are totals. let's take a look and compare:
ROUND 1 ALL TOTALS: 255-305-5 O/U .455
ROUND 2 ALL TOTALS 137-124-3 O/U .525
So a profitable blind under to a profitable blind over, an a 7% differential round vs round. (Since the start of the 2006 playoffs). The biggest edge is in the early game of the series and here is why:
Part of handicapping is understanding lines, the odds makers, and the betting public. Let's address the betting public. The betting public is subject to what is known as a "recency bias." That that means is they tend to bet on hot teams, against cold teams, and predicate a lot of what they do based on what they just saw. When you have round 1 of the NBA playoffs historically cashing under tickets at close to a 55% rate, entering round 2, the odds makers use that recency bias against them. Let's look at the data to support this:
ROUND 1 REMEMBER IS 54.5% UNDER
ROUND 2 GAMES 1 and 2 are 57-38-1 O/U 60% (3.3 points of line value)
The rest of the round is pretty much break even.
So remember that "recency bias" is a handicapping strategy. Add to the mix that when the total is 207 or more these games are 19-4 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over. |
|
04-23-19 |
Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 219 |
Top |
115-118 |
Loss |
-107 |
13 h 56 m |
Show
|
It seems like each passing shot by Paul George and Russell Westbrook comes with more pressure. The Thunder opened the series by scoring 54, and 52 points in the paint. It seems as though with each missed shot, the more bad shots Russ and Paul are throwing up and the Thunder have abandoned the paint after scoring 106 points in there through 2 games, just 58 total in the last 2. The Thunder duo is shooting a combined 36% and just 30% from deep. While many view this OKC team as very offensive, when they play as a dog they are typically shutdown as they are 45-16-3 to the under in their last 64 as a dog. (12-5-1 under in the playoffs as a dog). They average just 102.1ppg in this role, and the public is all in on the over at 63%. Portland fits a situation that is 217-148-8 to the under as well. Make the play on the under. |
|
04-20-19 |
Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 208 |
Top |
117-103 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
This game fits a 395-240 ATS situation (32-20 ATS in the playoffs). Make the play on the under. |
|
04-18-19 |
Warriors v. Clippers OVER 235.5 |
Top |
132-105 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Golden St. Warriors did the unthinkable at home in game 2 as they coughed up a 31 point 3rd quarter lead and fell to the LA Clippers. The series turns to LA for a pivotal game 3. The Clippers bench tandem of Lou Williams, and Montrezl Harrell has killed Golden St combining for 56 points per game. The Clippers love to get out and run at home where their games average 232.5ppg, an they have been 27-11-3 ATS to the over. When they play to a total of 224.5 or more at home they are 21-6-1 ATS to the over, covering by +6.36ppg. This game also fits a situation that is 541-378 ATS to the over, which is also 118-70 ATS in the playoffs. The public loves betting over, bit not to high totals, and are flooding the market with under wagers, further enhancing the value here. Make the play on the over. |
|
04-18-19 |
76ers v. Nets OVER 227 |
Top |
131-115 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 340-223 ATS to the over, which is also 61-35 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the over. |
|
04-16-19 |
Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
105-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 38 m |
Show
|
This series between San Antonio and Denver this season has seen all 5 games play out under the total. There have not been more than 201 points scored in any of them and with playoff intensity picking up on defense, O look for similar results tonight. Game 1 saw just 2 fast break points scored, and 80 points scored in the paint, which says these teams are going to have to make baskets from mid-range and deep often. This game fits a pace and fast break points indicator that is 273-174-4 ATS to the under which is also 16-5 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the under. |
|
04-14-19 |
Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 214 |
Top |
90-122 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 90-56 to the under. Make the play on the under. |
|
04-14-19 |
Thunder v. Blazers OVER 225 |
Top |
99-104 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 146-68 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over. |
|
04-13-19 |
Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 232 |
Top |
104-121 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Golden St. Warriors are considered by most as an offensive team, and anytime they take the court the over is in play for bettors. Things tend to be different than those expectations in the playoffs, however. Golden St. The Warriors are 39-6 SU in the playoffs since 2014 allowing 97.6ppg. That is down from 104.1ppg in the regular season. When we are talking about a 1st round game their defense is even better-allowing 92.5ppg holding opposing offenses to 38.6% shooting overall and just 28.7% from 3. It is why they are 29-16 to the under over the 45 games at home. Don't see the proper adjustment here. Make the play on the under. |
|
04-13-19 |
Magic v. Raptors OVER 213 |
Top |
104-101 |
Loss |
-100 |
24 h 6 m |
Show
|
The Toronto Raptors have been consistent all season and lost 3 in a row just 1 time all season. They have averaged over 115ppg at home on the season where they are 32-9. they have scored 118+ points in half their home games on the season. Toronto scored less than 100 points just 9 times all season but 3 of those came in their games with the Magic. The Raptors solved that issue with an explosive 121 points vs the Magic in their last game just 12 days ago. The Magic has averaged 113ppg in the last 3 vs the Raptors and I think this has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the day. This also fits a playoff situation that has been 20-3 to the over as well. Make the play on the over. |
|
04-05-19 |
Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 226 |
Top |
114-120 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 90-51 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
04-05-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216 |
Top |
110-119 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 299-211 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
04-05-19 |
Knicks v. Rockets OVER 219 |
Top |
96-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 95-56 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
04-05-19 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 213 |
Top |
117-97 |
Loss |
-104 |
6 h 46 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 106-73 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
04-05-19 |
Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
110-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 90-51 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
04-04-19 |
Cavs v. Kings OVER 228.5 |
Top |
104-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 144-65 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
04-04-19 |
Bucks v. 76ers OVER 230.5 |
Top |
128-122 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 315-213 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
04-03-19 |
Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 229 |
Top |
135-103 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 46 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 299-210 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
04-03-19 |
Raptors v. Nets UNDER 226 |
Top |
115-105 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 89-51 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
03-31-19 |
Grizzlies v. Clippers OVER 222 |
Top |
96-113 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 332-207 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
03-31-19 |
Hornets v. Warriors OVER 228.5 |
Top |
90-137 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 332-207 ATS and the play is on the over. |
|
03-30-19 |
Blazers v. Pistons UNDER 214 |
Top |
90-99 |
Win
|
103 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 298-210 ATS and the play is on the under. |
|
03-29-19 |
Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 221 |
Top |
115-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 88-50 ATS and the play is on the under. |
