Charlotte +3.5

No time for writeup today - but Charlotte is red hot and won 8 out of 10 and have too much offense for memphis to counter with.  

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte 

Washington St -6.5
The Cougars are playing Idaho and playing with revenge as Idaho punked them in PUllman last year, and the Cougs are scoring 15 ppg more on offense, they are 5-1 SU this season and their only loss was a 6 point loss to mighty Gonzaga.  Dating back to last season Wash. St is on a 8-2 ATS run, and are 4-1 ATS in lined games this season.  Road game here or the line would be double digits at home.  
Play 1 Unit on Washington State 

Minnesota -6.5

The Lakers are pathetic and also this is a spot for what is called a spot bet.  This is the 6th road game for the Lakers, and their last 3 games on the road have resulted in them losing by 9,20 And 13.  Minny has lost 3 in a row at home but have been competitive in every game against far better teams than the Lakers.  Anytime a team is on a tail end of a road run of 5 or more games that team is fade opportunity and the Lakers only bright spot is the cheering that Kobe gets from opposing crowds on his Farwell tour and Kobe is a shell of himself as far as a contributor of any significant effect on the outcome of a game.  Minny is better away from home than they are at home, but this is a great spot for them to get a win on this 4 game home stand before they head out on the road and they own numerous stat advantages here in this matchup including bench scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota. 

Washington -3 (good line drop for no reason) 

The Skins are 5-1 at home, and the Cowboys haven’t won a game without Romo all year and are in serious decline.  The Skins have been world beaters at home, obvious that QB Cousins is the best QB in the game, and Gruden the best coach in the game.  Cowboys 1-6 ATS without Romo, and Cousins at home 11 TD’s and only 2 picks.  Dallas just 2-8 ATS last 10 meetings with Washington.  Dallas throws it in early when getting beat – Skins never give up.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Fading the Pelicans.  They are off a OT upset win over the Cavs, where James had only 7 points.  I love to fade double digit dogs off a huge win over a good team the next game.  Cletics vastly better.

Chicago -7.5

Going to back the Bears here playing a better brand of football.  I put NOTHING into the Niners close one against AZ last week, the Cards had played Seattle and Cincy within 6 days of each other and never got off the bus and still won.  The Bears on a roll, Forte is back with Langford also stepping up and Culter with Gace at OC is playing lights out and showed up Rodgers on MNF.  Home field big here in cold weather the Da Bears under Fox on a spread run, the Niners 0-5 SU on the road and 1-4 ATS.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Baltimore +3.5

Miami stinks.  Yep I am taking the better coach off back to back wins as ugly as they were, and the Dolphins flat out embarrassed last week and their offense a funk, the locker room a disaster and their QB is so overrated is unreal.  The Ravens in spite of their record have played everyone tough and have not lost by more than 8 all year.

Play 1 Unit on the Ravens

Atlanta +1.5

Atlanta +1.5

Matty Ice gets Freeman back and Tampa is not all that folks and horrible ATS at home.  Falcons avenging an OT loss, and I look for them to get back on track here somewhat.   Better weapons and with a running game they can be dangerous.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

2 UNIT TEASER- 2 Team 6 Points.  Tease Minnesota to +7 and tease Indy to +13 – 2 Units. 

Michigan State -3.5

I look at an Las Vegas Oddsmakers Top 20 ranking report weekly, which know a hell of a lot more than Sports Writers and pollsters, and guess what, Iowa is not even in their top 25.  Yeah Iowa beat Nebraska by 8 and MSU lost to them on a fluke play and missed call from the refs. If Iowa is so good, they should have destroyed a bad Husker team where the QB threw 4 picks in that game, Iowa should have ram rodded them.  Bottom line is QB Cook is good, MSU has wins over Ohio St, Michigan and Oregon and have a better resume and have been in the spotlight before.  Iowa falls here by 10 in my opinion.  Good team but overrated, MSU the real deal with a better coach.

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State 

USC +4.5

I will make this simple, Stanford off a brutal game against Notre Dame and quite frankly I cannot back a team in a championship game that has the worst defense of the 2 teams very often, and that will be Stanford’s demise here.  USC clicking on all cylinders under their interim and now new head coach, and off a impressive blowout win over a good UCLA team.  USC avenging a 310 point setback in the earlier season meeting, Clay Helton no doubt has reminded his team of this, and I am fairly sure while Hogan a great QB for the Cards, Kessler is no joke for USC and the 1-2 punch at RB for the Trojans is newly emphasized by HC Helton and a different team than what Stanford saw in Game 1 in September and Trojans playing more physical and loose. 

Play 1 Unit on USC

Houston -5.5

Not sold on Temple and their coach has been talking with other schools about Jobs, but with Ward back at QB Houston DESTROYED a damn good Navy team (my only loss last Saturday), so I am all over the high flying Cougar attack.  This is also a HOME GAME for the Cougars which is a huge plus as well.  Contrasting styles here no doubt but Houston more likely to cover a number here and played some damn good defense last week against the triple option attack which was impressive and they flat out shut down QB Reynolds from Navy, which is impressive. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Green Bay -3

Avenging a loss is key here.  Green Bay lost 3 in a row and one to the Lions as a double digit favorite.  Add in the fact this line was double digits 2 months ago on the futures and you have added value in this number.  While you may react to Sunday Night’s debacle for Green Bay do not.  Look at the box score in that game.  They out first downed the Bears, out rushed them, had less penalties, and frankly on paper out played them, but were 0-2 in the red zone and it killed them.  Detroit has been solid as of late however they have a lot of attention on their side because they whipped the Eagles last week, but folks the Eagles suck.  Green Bay rights the ship here by double digits.

Play 2 Units on Green Bay

Maryland +6

I will take the #2 team in the nation here against NC at home, as NC lost top Northern Iowa already and not sold on them laying these points.  The Tarheels have OWNED the Terps, 7-0 against them dating back to 2012 so Maryland looking for revenge and to protect a #2 ranking. Maryland has better shooters and a better defense catching big points.

Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

UNDER 41

Only 11 out of the last 34 primetime games on Thur – Sun – MNF have went Over the total.  7 out of the last 3 in Cleveland have went Under the total and while the first game this year was a shootout, both teams badly injured on the offensive side of the ball, especially Baltimore with 80% of their offense out with Forsett and Flacco.  McCown in for Manziel who was demoted due to partying and lying to the staff, both teams a total mess, points will be at a premium tonight.  Cleveland’s offense has been anemic as of late.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

2 Team 6 Point Same Game tease – Tease the Ravens to +10.5 and tease the Total UP to 47 and take the UNDER.  Half Unit

San Antonio -4

Cheap number for the red hot Spurs.  Defense is the KEY.  No team has scored over 90 ppg on the Spurs in the last 5 games, Leonard is red hot, Duncan well rested and for the Da Bulls – Rose has managed 32% from the floor in his last 2 games and faces the best defense he has seen all year.  Spurs roll.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio 

Oakland -1
Cheap number for Oakland here against a team with 4 wins over their last 22 games and a banged up QB with no TD passes over the past 2 games and limited targets to throw to against a better than average secondary.  Jack Del Rio will have his team prepared here off back to back losses.
Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

OVER 47 Giants / Redskins
Like the Over here big time.  Neither team will stop the other one, both teams have better than average QB's and the Skins play lights out at home and can put up some points.  These 2 scored 54 back in September and that was when Washington had just 81 yards rushing!  Expect some fireworks here and decent weather with some light rainy type stuff which is perfect for WR's shaking loose.
Play 2 Units - TOP PLAY

San Diego +4.5 to 5
Yep - The Chargers are flat out ugly but Jax laying this number is scary.  I will grab this over the fall number of 3 anyday.  Chargers have stat edges in Points - Yards gained - turnovers - Time of possession - Kicking and penalties.  I know the Chargers OL is cheese cloth and they have injury issues but Rivers the best QB in this game and Chargers will pull out all the stops after KC whipped their ass last week.  This line an overreaction to what people saw last week, SD will play better and cover this number in a tight game.
Play 1 Unit on San Diego 
2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease Denver to +8.5 and tease Minnesota to +7 - Play 1 Unit. 

Ole Miss -1
Everyone loves the homedog here and the home team has some serious advantages here as trends will tell you but Ol Miss's offense and QB Kelly have more scoring power here (#1 offense in SEC) and MIss States defense has allowed 81 points the past 2 weeks and will be hard pressed to slow down Ole Miss offense at 40 ppg who just gutted LSU.  This will be a tight game so hang on but Ol Miss the better team laying less than a FG here is too good to pass up.  Ol Miss pounded MSUS last year and while QB Prescott concerning for Ol Miss's defense I think the Rebels are too much for the Bulldogs.  I lean MSU on my radio show this week but took a hard look at this one and think Ol Miss is a clear cut choice.

Toronto -2.5 to -3

Washington's frontcourt should get dominated here and they have not played well as of late. Toronto will own the paint for easy points.  The Raptors have edges in scoring, free throws, turnovers, and rebounding.  Enough said - Raptors should roll here and their bench players are stepping up.  

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

BONUS PLAY - OVER 192.5 in San Antonio / Atlanta game.  Both ranked in the Top 10 in the NBA in offensive efficiency 

Northwestern -3.5
This one at Soldier field and Northwestern's only 2 losses to Iowa and Michigan folks and they have a stud RB in Johnson who will shred the Illinois weak run defense.  Northwestern coach Fitzgerald will coach his team to a win here.  Illinois 1-4 ATS last 5 games. 
Play 1 Unit on Northwestern 

Alabama -14
Rarely if at all do I lay double digits in a rivalry game but Alabama the best team in the country and RB Henry against a defense that allows 181 yards on the ground a total mis match.  Auburns QB position in big trouble against this defense which is a shut down defense with 38 sacks and Sabin will not let off the throttle here, the Tide can name the score at Jordan Hare here, Tide Roll by 20+
Play 1 Unit on Alabama

Indiana -6.5
The Hoosiers played Michigan to OT, lost by 7 to Ohio State this season, and have a very good football team who has a had a brutal schedule.  Purdue has 1 good win this season, to a 5 win Husker team who started a 2nd string QB.  Hoosiers playing for a bowl big here.  Purdue QB doubtful here and Hoosiers blew out Maryland last week as an underdog and Hoosier QB Sudfeld is a stud and threw for 4 TDs last week and 385 yards, Too much for Purdue to handle on the scoreboard here.
Play 2 Units on Indiana - TOP PLAY

San Jose State +7.5

Home dog here worth the stretch,  and what is Boise State doing laying over a TD to anyone?  Losses to Air Force, New Mexico (badly) and the offense is so banged up with injuries it is unreal.  San Jose playing for a bowl game here and have the offense to keep pace and this is a Spartan team who played BYU to 1 point loss (Common opponent, BYU crushed BSU) and Sparty looking for Bowl Bids with a win.  Tight one all the way., as BSU has allowed over 500 yards per game in their last 3 on defense, and laying a number on the road?

Play 1 Unit on San Jose State – Go Sparty!

Iowa -1

All over the Hawkeyes here.  Avenging an OT loss in this game last year at home, and it was not pretty and quit ugly during that game.  Iowa is vastly better than Nebraska and the Husker offense is shorthanded at WR and against this defense which allows just 15 ppg on the road this season, Huskers will struggle with turnover prone QB Armstrong.  This line should at least be 4, and bear in mind the Husker win over Michigan state was a fluke aided by the refs.  Huskers just 3-3 ATS at home this year.  Did I mention the Husker defense is deplorable and if Iowa wants to throw once the run game starts clicking, this could get ugly.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa

NAVY -4 (houstons QB and RB are out ) 

All over the Middies here, I have put them out 3 times this year including last week and cashed all 3.  Houston is deflated, their QB is banged up and questionable and Houston’s defense cannot handle QB Reynolds and this triple option attack.  Navy is 9-1 for the first time since 1963 with Roger Staubauch and can roll almost anyone on offense and their only loss this year was at Notre Dame.  Did I mention Navy is 8-2 ATS this season?  That would be besides a great offense led by a record setting QB, the Navy defense allows just 18 ppg

Play 1 Unit on Navy

UNDER 72.5

Texas banged up big time at RB, both 1-2 backs are out and that is huge because the Red Raiders have issues on defense, and that plays into Techs hands here.  Texas is not a good team folks and Texas Tech has all the offensive weapons here to put up points against Texas who cannot counter on offense, however Texas’s defense will not just lay down.  Texas’s defense has struggled against high octane spread attacks all year but held OU to 17 and can bottle up the Red Raiders here a bit.  I expect a hard fought game- the total is way to high.  Tech 4 road games, 3 went Under

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Lions –1.5

I cannot trust Philly on the road and I cannot trust Mark Sanchez but I can jump on the Lions bandwagon of back to back wins including Green Bay at Green Bay.  The Eagles offense in a total funk and the Lions while not a great team, are at home here and their defense in the last 2 games has been outstanding.  QB Sanchez is slated to start but rumors of Bradford playing are being floated, but a 100% Bradford is not all that good so playing banged up if he does is not a game changer here.  Tampa punked Philly badly on Sunday – Short Week – no confidence – travel on a holiday – Lions defense at home is fired up after 2 performances that were the best of the year.  Less than a field goal?  I will lay it.

Play 1 Unit on the Lions

2 Team 6 Point Teaser.  Tease Carolina to +7 and Tease Chicago to +15 for a half unit to 1 Unit Play

Pacers +2.5

Short on time - Pacers Red Hot and cashing tickets like crazy and the Wizards recent win streak fueled by beating bottom feeders.  George a huge plus in the lineup for Indiana, all over them as a dog tonight for an outright win.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Bills +7

A rash of injuries for New England, and sooner or later it catches up, no matter how good of a coach NE has at adjusting, Edelman was a huge hit, and the Pats are on their 19th Offensive line arrangement this season.  Buffalo’s defense has vastly improved since the bye week and while both teams are good at stuffing the run, the Bills McCoy has been off the chart as of late as he is fully healthy and QB Taylor is not turning it over.  New England a better team but underdogs are hot at 19-6-1 ATS the last 2 weeks overall in the NFL and I like the Bills to make a stand here and they have had added time to prepare here off a Thursday Night game last week. . 

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

Same Game 2 team 6 Point Teaser – Side and Total.  Tease the Total DOWN to 42 and take the OVER and tease the Bills UP  to +13 for a HALF UNIT. 

Detroit -2.5

Like the Pistons against the Bucks here, and they are playing with Triple Revenge dating back to last season.  Detroit beat Cleveland and Minnesota with plenty of moxy before a 2 point setback at home this weekend against the Wizards in a game they should have won.  That same Washington team beat the Bucks by 29 last week, and the Bucks off 3 straight blowout losses where their offense is just not clicking and they give up a ton of points.  Detroit better at a small number here. Pistons have not covered in this series in the 6 attempts, that trend reverses tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Minnesota PK

The biggest game for the Vikings in 10 years minimum.  They are a cover machine at 8-0 ATS and Green Bay in free fal and the GB defense as bad as the offense and BAD MATCHUP here for Green Bay.  The Packers are 27th in the NFL against the run and they play Adrian Petersen!  This is for the division championship in my opinion as Minny will be hard pressed to win at GB next month and I am taking the hotter team at home on a hell of a spread run as GB cannot run it and have limited success passing and Aaron Rodgers has not been his usual self, Minny sky high for this one and a well-coached team, and the best tackling team in the NFL.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER – 1 UNIT – Tease Cincy to +11 and Tease Indy to +12

KC / SD OVER 45

Neither team will stop the other in my book.  The Chargers are so beat up right now it is unreal but Rivers has always been a thorn for KC, and the Bolts will score.  Add in the mix that RB West for KC has been a wrecking crew and KC has put up 76 points in the last 2 games, and part of that against a Denver defense on the road regardless or turnover ratio and I see a high scoring affair here. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Oakland +1

Detroit off a win against Green Bay and this low of a number against lowly Oakland?  The Raiders will get it going big time against this defense, oddsmakers know it and left a short number and I will expose it.  Better coach, better RB, better QB and Oakland fired up after getting waxed at home by the Vikes, and the Lions have not covered a spread at home this season!

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

Denver  PK to -1

Yep, taking the new QB, the better defense and a pissed off Bronco’s bunch over the John Fox led Bears off a surprising win against the Rams last week.  The Bronco defense will be at full strength and when was the last time QB Cutler put together 3 good games?  Also main weapon Jefferies is doubtful.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

Knicks +4.5

Solid road team, as a matter of fact better road team than home team, winners of 3 straight and a cover machine on the road.  Houston's offense inconsistent and I like the Knicks to continue their road performance.  better offense and better defense statistically for NY.  Like their chances of a road win here, I will take the points in a close game.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks 

Okie State pick to -1

Fading Baylor second straight week.  Better defense, better QB and better coach and did I mention they were in Stillwater, a very tough venue worth 4 points alone.  Okie State will not be looking ahead to big brother OU on deck, this is for the Big 12 title hopes and to remain in the hunt for the final 4..  Baylor’s frosh QB banged up and listed as game time although he will play and Baylor also lost All conference first team safety Orion Stewart last week to injury.  OSU defense a sack master and they have a ball hawking secondary, again, ALL AT HOME.  Baylor limping in here, and while OSU struggled at Iowa State last week looking ahead no doubt and taking them lightly, that has added to a soft line here. 

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma State

Missouri +8.5

Well Head Coach Gary Pinkel has decided to step down and this is his last home game EVER.  Think that provides added motivation on Senior Day in Columbia?  Hell yes it does, plus Mizzou playing for a Bowl Game with a tough game at Arky next week, so a must win scenario.  While Mizzou’s offense has been in the cellar all year they managed over 480 yards against BYU last week in an outright win as a 6 point pup in that game.  Mizzou has owned the Vols, winning 3 straight against them and while Tennessee has a good team, they have no business laying over a TD on the road against one of the SEC’s best defenses, and we all know Tennessee has issues closing out games and they put up just 24 against a horrific North Texas team last week, and barely beat a bad South Carolina team by 3, and both those were at home for the Vols.   Mizzou circles the wagons this week in an all-out effort.  Better defense at home getting points playing their guts out for a beloved head coach in his last homer. 

Play 2 Units on Mizzou

Navy -12

Tulsa is 115th against the run, they allow 39 ppg and they face a Navy attack, triple option, run to perfection by record setting QB Reynolds which is clicking on all cylinders and remember 8-1 Navy sii no joke, they waxed a ranked Memphis team folks, and Tulsa struggled last week against Central Florida who has not won a game all year!  BLOWOUT – MIDDIES ROLL.

Play 1 Unit on Navy

Oregon -4

USC on the road, they are banged p on defense big time and 2 studs are out tonight,  and since QB Adams has settled in for the Ducks, they are flat out rolling people going 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 games.  Eugene worth 4 points alone, Oregon on the rise, USC limping, Ducks roll, this line should be 7 or 8 points, I smell a double digit win here by the Ducks.  Quack quack.

Play 1 Unit on the Oregon

Air Force +11

Not sold on BSU laying this type of number over a team who has OWNED them against the spread over the years, not to mention Boise State got their ass kicked by New Mexico as a 30 point favorite and Air Force a cover machine at 11-4-1, and both these teams at 7-3 and playing for a conference title hopes here, should be close.

Play 1 Unit on Air Force – The Fly Boys!

Jax -2.5 to 3 MAX - Game out early at 2.5 guys!!!!!  

I had a free play on Jax who got the job done at Baltimore, albeit a crazy call by the refs that benefited them, but the resurgence of the offense behind QB Bortles has been good, Running game good, and WR Robinson one of the better fantasy WRs out there.,  Tennessee on a short week, travel and off a brutal beating against mighty Carolina, and the win over New Orleans in OT does little to impress me for the Titans as the hapless Redskins just waxed the daylights out of New Orleans Sunday.  Jax last 4 games while the defense has been inconsistent, the offense has averaged 27 ppg.  Better resume and better team and at home.  Jax 8-1 ATS the last 9 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on the Jags 

UNDER 208.5 Kings and Hawks

My Power rating on this 202, and that is a 6.5 point overlay versus the line in this game, Sacramento not at home where they shoot lights out and Hawks have been struggling on offense and Teauge is doubtful again.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Central Michigan -9.5 to 10 MAX 
The line dropped off 10, PERFECT.  Kent Stat is dead last in scoring in the NCAA at #128 and their offense is deplorable and they have failed to score in 3 out of their last 5 games.  Cent. Michigan has played a brutal schedule and have lost some close games to good teams and their record is deceiving, and they have the 20th ranked defense in yards allowed in the NCAA.  Kent State may not score.
Play 1 Unit on Central Michigan

Cavs –4

James and company in a bad mood and added rest after a double OT loss to the Bucks, and Detroit in free fall dropping 5 straight and not able on offense in any 5 losses to top 100 points on offense.  Cavs ticked off, Detroit reeling, and a decent number here in what I fell will be a double digit win by the Cavs.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

Ohio U -8.5 to 9  

Ball State has no offense and while they rank near the bottom against the run, they allow over 500 yards per game this year overall on defense.   Ohio U has ran the ball for over 300 ypg their last 2 games.  Word out of Athens is this is Frank Solich’s last home game as it has been leaked he is retiring at seasons end.  Ohio U looking to get over big time on Ball State here

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U to

UNDER 47

No other way to look – cannot lay double digits and Houston’s offense is one dimensional and weak at best.  Cincy is playing lights out folks, and have had a great defense at home and have allowed just 17 ppg this season.  The only strength Houston has is their defense as they have no run game and Cincy’s DL will tee off on Hoyer all night who has a gimpy WR unit outside of Hopkins.  Look for Cincy to expose a weak run defense tonight and methodically pound the Texans.  I rarely if at all lay double digits in the NFL, and won’t tonight, especially since dogs went 11-2 ATS this week.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

BONUS TEASER.  Tease Cincy down to -4.5 and Tease the Total UP to 53 and take the UNDER – Half Unit 

Arizona +3

Better team getting points.  Better QB getting points.  Just as good as defense if not better getting points.  Better coach getting points.  Better skill position players on offense in getting points.  Arizona off a bye week getting points.  Seattle has shut down 2 QB’s all year – Matt Cassel and Chicago’s backup Clausen.  Anyone good has beaten Seattle this season, and Zona will face a do or die effort on a tough home field and all the public will be pounding Seattle based on reputation and name only here, I will side with the Sharps.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona  

Dallas +1
Biggest square bet on the board but I am on the Cowboys.  TAMPA IS HORRIBLE AT HOME.  1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS their last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium and with the defense of Dallas, who can shut down boundary receivers like Mike Evans, and Dallas's run game to control the game and take the heat off their less than stellar QB Cassel, I think Dallas gets its done huge on Sunday to snap a streak of losses without Romo.  In Dallas's last 2 losses they could have won the game especially against Philly.
Play 1 Unit on Dallas

UNDER 42.5 St Louis / Chicago
News for the Bears - this is not the Chargers defense here and St Louis has shut down plenty of good teams on offense this year and Chicago looked decent and Langford looked unstoppable on MNF, but back to back travel on a short week against a team at home who has rendered numerous offenses useless in here is troubling for the Bears on the scoring front.  St Louis no juggernaut on offense and expect them to pound Gurley all day and eat clock.
Play 1 Unit on the UNDER
2 team 6 Point Teaser - Tease Minnesota to +9 and tease Jacksonville to +11.5 for a 1 Unit Play 

Miami +6
According to my sources in Vegas, and they are GOOD sources, the biggest sharp player bet this week is the Dolphins and I agree.  Philly is not all that guys and should have lost last week at Dallas, and Tannehill actually is better than Bradford at QB in my opinion and while Miami has looked less than stellar the past 2 weeks, I think their defense will step up and they have the skill players to expose a defense in the Eagles that is not that good folks.  Bad number to lay (fall number), I will take it.  Whole world on Philly here, I will play contrarian.
Play 1 Unit on Miami

Washington St +9.5

No one buying into a team with a QB that is kicking ass in the PAC 12 for WSU?  Anyone see the injury list of the UCLA defense?  Luke Falk (33 TD’s only 7 picks) is a stud at Washington State and Mike Leech will pull out all the stops and use some trickery against the Bruins, who beat bottom feeder Oregon State last week, but this week they face a team that is undervalued.  Did I mention WSU is 11-2 last 13 as a road dog?

PLAY 2 Units on Washington St – Top Play

Southern Miss -7.5

Look for Southern Miss, who I saw play Nebraska this year and hang around in that one in Lincoln, to expose just a deplorable Rice defense that is a funnel to the end zone.  When you allow 36 ppg, you simply cannot hang around with an inconsistent offense and Southern Miss QB Mullens has 25 TD passes this year, and the Eagles are 7-2 ATS their last 9 games and a serious contender in Conf. USA.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Miss

Air Force +1.5

Utah State started out hot, and now they are off back to back losses including New Mexico (wow)  last week and they face the nation’s leading second ranked  rushing attack on the road.  Air Force is the real deal in the Mountain West, and if they can win this game at home they can be in the driver’s seat with another win to land in a championship game.  The Fly Boys are 9-2 ATS at home versus the line folks.

Play 1 Unit on Air Force

Duke -3.5

Think Duke head coach Cutcliff will have the Devils focused after the ass kicking they took last week?  I feel sorry for a Pitt, whose offense is vanilla and very defendable against angry Duke defense.  Duke apparently let the horrific Miami debacle and loss 2 weeks ago mess them up for the showdown with North Carolina, and we get a soft number here because of it.  Duke’s QB vastly better, Dukes coach vastly better and Duke at home is worth some cushion as well.

Play 2 Units on Duke – Another Top Play

Bills +2.5

I think he Bills win straight up so I will take the points.  Tyrod Taylor was 8 for 8 in hitting WR Watkins last week – they have McCoy and Williams at RB, a mobile QB hitting 71% of his throws YTD and they face a banged up Jets team with a limited QB who struggled to put Jax away last week.  Bills off a convincing win against Miami last week who was red hot rolling into Buffalo.  Jets meet their match here and if QB Fitzgerald goes down or not 100% Jets in big trouble with QB Smith coming in.  Rex Ryan knows this Jets team inside and out.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

BONUS PLAY – Virginia Tech +2.5 to win outright versus a bad GT team, and Bud Foster knows how to stop the triple option attack, and VT trying hard to get Beamer in his swan song year to a Bowl Game, a must win here for that.  

NY Knicks +6 to 6.5 

The Knicks are better on the road.  Wins at Toronto and Washington are impressive, 2 playoff teams last year.  Not sold at all on Charlotte carrying this number and the value lies in the dog here, and the Knicks are fully capable of winning outright.  Offensive and defensive stats are dead even here.  Knicks at least early on are road worthy of covering a number like this.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Knicks

UNDER 200 Heat / Lakers

Lakers offense slumping badly and the Miami Heat play rock solid defense, especially at home.  I do not see LA scoring more than 90 here gents.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

Chicago +4.5

Taking over the fall number of 3 here.  The Chargers have 6 starters out, 5 other starters listed as questionable and their best 2 offensive pass catchers are out.  Add in the fact their defense sucks and the Bolts cannot run it, QB Rivers has less weapons at his disposal and the fact that San Diego has found ways to lose all year, and I will take Cutler and the Bears who are playing better and the points.  Forte is out for the Bears, the backup is solid. 

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

2 Team 6 Point Teaser / Side and Total  - Tease Chicago to +10.5 and tease the Total UP to 55.5 and take the UNDER.  

UNDER 44 Niners / Falcons

Real simple here, Blain Gabbert.  How bad is Kappernick if he was judged not as good as Gabbert as a starter.  Also stated in San Fran press the staff was waiting to start him against a bad defense so Atlanta was circled.  REALLY?  Think Dan Quinn knows about San Fran after all his years at Seattle?  Atlanta will bring it this week, and on that note the Dirty Birds offense has been lifeless the last 3 weeks as well.  All the makings of a low scoring affair here.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER.

NY Giants -2.5

The line here is an overreaction to Tampa’s win at Atlanta.  Did you see that game, Atlanta turned it over all over the place and Tampa still needed OT to beat them.  NY has a better QB and coach, bigger playmakers, and they can score against this defense,  Based on last week’s results, this line is ripe for the taking.

Play 2 Units on the NY Giants – TOP PLAY

Minny - 1.5 to 2

Value here under 3 with a team 6-0 ATS their last 6 and Rams have Gurley and that’s it, and trust me, head coach Zimmer will have his team ready to stop the run.  Minny is sneaky good and while they struggled last week to a win and cover at the Bears, Rams on the road cannot be trusted with 1 fluke win against the Cards early in the season.  This line lower than expected as an overreaction to Rams big win against lowly Niners last week.  AP – Bridgewater – Diggs and company and home field where the Vikes have been very tough at Gopher Stadium.

Play 1 Unit on the Vikings

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Oakland to +10 and tease Atlanta down to -1 – PLAY 1 Unit 

LSU +6.5

Defense, running game, deep talent, physical and good coach.  NO I am not talking about Alabama, I am talking about LSU.  These teams are pretty much even folks, neither QB a game breaker with his skills and LSU is undervalued catching almost a TD here.  LSU QB Harris looks great this year and he has better WR’s than Bama and the Tiger defense well equipped to stuff Alabama run attack.  OT game last year was a bitter loss in Baton Rouge, the Tigers have has this one circled.  Alabama very beatable in 2015, even at home.  Public line here big time.

Play 1 Unit on LSU

Michigan State -5 to -5.5 (line as of Tuesday)

Get on this ASAP, as it is a night game and money will pour in on MSU by weeks end.  Nebraska is a shell of itself and Purdue and  a QB not near as good Conner Cook just hung 55 on Nebraska last week.  One of the worst pass defenses in all of college football, a top 3 team as far as the most penalties on the year, and quite frankly a disinterested head coach in Mike Riley who may get ran out of town on a rail car if MSU blows out NU this Saturday.  Nebraska cannot stop anyone on offense and Tommy Armstrong is turnover prone and not built to throw and play from behind and the Huskers may face the best defense they have seen all season here.  Nebraska is living on past deeds, not present.  Michigan State a legit contender for the final 4 this year and odds on with Ohio State to win the conference.  Husker flat out are a bad football team, poorly coached, and they will get man handled here.  The Huskers only win in the last 5 weeks was at Minnesota when they had 7 starters out. Huskers pass defense 125th against the pass and 90th overall. Enough said.  

Play 3 Units on Michigan State. Game of the Year.

Texas Tech +8.5

Any team that can score like Texas Tech is good for a backdoor cover and from what I have seen from West Virginia, neither team has a defense, Tech off a heart breaker versus undefeated Okie State but the Mountaineers are just 3-7 ATS their 10 home games as a fav and this one has last minute thriller shootout written all over it. A Tech win SU would not surprise me. 

Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech

Tulsa -17

A Blowout – Central Florida’s coach O’Leary resigned, Tulsa is seeking a bowl bid and have the capability of putting up monster numbers here, especially with QB Evans who has 5890 yards in the past season and half and last year UCF blew these guys out and Evans had the worst game of his career in that game.  The Knights are 1-8 ATS the last 9 games and have NO offense to trade punches here, especially on the road.  I have faded UCF twice this season and cashed both.

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa - Blowout 

Buffalo -2

I am not buying sucker bet here.  Going to lay the short number with Buffalo here as they have a vastly better offense than Kent State, who ranks near the bottom in offense in the NCAA.  The 1-2 punch at RB for the Bulls plus a better QB gives them a huge edge in this game at a cheap number. Kent States last 3 games they managed 5 FG’s and 1 TD, that will not cut it here and if Buffalo wants to make a bowl game, this is a must win because Northern Illinois on deck, but they will not look past this one.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

BONUS PLAY – Nevada -4 over Fresno St for a half unit.

Detroit -5

Real simple.  Detroit is red hot and Indiana is scoring 92 ppg and allowing 105 ppg and I have seen no team chemistry at all for the Pacers.   Detroit has come out hot, they are 3-0 and have beaten some very good teams and allowing just 91 ppg so far and are clicking on offense, and this game is at home for Pistons.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit  

Two Plays here - No Writeups today guys - short on time but this game was well researched

Bad weather and rainy for the game.  

COLTS +6.5 to 7 - A 1 Unit Play - fading the public here. Colts cover late.

Same Game teaser 6 Points - HALF UNIT - Tease Colts to +12.5 to 13 and Tease the Total DOWN to 40 and Take the OVER.  

UNDER 45.5 Denver / Green Bay

You think Rodgers and Manning and you think shootout.  Not so.  The Denver defense is at home (getting points too) and I can assure you they have held opposing QB’s to the lowest fantasy point of any team, because the defense is unreal ranked #1 in the NFL and allow 16 ppg.  Conversely the Packers defense only allowing 17 ppg and the Bronco offense has scored a TD on just 9 of 71 drives this entire season.  Looks to be a tight, physical game and key players are out for injured and not healthy for Packer offense.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit Play   Tease St Louis to -2 and tease Oakland to +8.5.  Both teases thru 3 Key numbers of 3-6-7.  Value Teaser gents 

OVER 7

KC can hot anyone - anywhere - anytime and the youth of the Mets is their demise no matter the talent level.  Both pitchers will give up hits tonight and no one manufactures runs like the Royals (who I feel just may win tonight)  The Mets will do all they can to win this tonight and I expect some fireworks here.  Royals 7-3 on OVER their last 10 games and Mets 6-4 on Overs.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

If KC Wins - I want to thank everyone for their support this MLB Season and the post season package investors made some money!  Thanks - TG 

Arizona -5.5

Guys Johnny Football is playing and the Zona defense licking their wounds as they roll into Cleveland against a bad football team after Joe Flacco and the Ravens did some damage to them on MNF and yet they get a win.  Johnny Football not ready for primetime, has limited targets and the Zona coaching staff on the defensive side of the ball will blitz him to death.  Arizona’s offense looked sluggish at times but they are healthy with a 1-2 punch at RB, had 3 WR’s that can go deep and QB Palmer is healthy and should have a big day here.  Cleveland is a bad team guys that allows 5 yards per carry and Johnson and Ellington will shred them.

Play 3 Units on Zona – TOP PLAY

Atlanta -7

QB Ryan tore up Lovie Smiths defense big time with 2 double digits wins last year and the one in the Atlanta dome was ugly.  Atlanta won ugly last week and will want to atone for 2 bad performances and the Bucs blew a monster lead last week (24 points)  in a loss at Washington.  Atlanta better suited to stop RB Martin and the Atlanta defense rendered Tennessee useless last week and are vastly improved under their new head coach Quinn. 

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

Air Force -7

Look for highly touted offensive guru coach Norm Chow to exit Hawaii at years end (Should have stayed at USC).  I like under the radar mismatches and I faded Hawaii last week against Nevada, and I will fade them again this week as Hawaii cannot stop the run, AT ALL, and the Falcons have a triple back, triple option attack, the ol wishbone for lack of a better term and while they are not as good at Navy at running it they are damn close, they will trounce Hawaii here big time in a runaway win.  AF just murdered Fresno racking up 458 yards rushing last week, and face the nation’s 115th ranked rush D.

Play 1 Unit on Air Force

Temple +11

Game of the Year for Temple who is undefeated and I think this is the game where all the injuries catch up to Notre Dame who has lost on the road already to a very good Clemson team.  The Temple defense is NO JOKKE and while they will allow more than 1.8 yards per carry on defense at home today  and give up more than 12 points in this game which is their overall season average, I like the little guys chances here for a home cover in a hard fought game.  The Temple running game is no joke with RB Thomas and he goes up against a very suspect Irish run defense.

Play 1 Unit on Temple

KC +126

I feel KC will bounce back after getting pushed around last night as Matz is not near the pitcher YOung is for KC.  KC is all about getting hits and putting the ball in play, and Matz has served up 20 hits in his last 15 innings with over a 4 ERA while Young who won Game 1 in relief who was sharp as a tack has given up 7 hits over his last 16 innings of work.  KC is resilient and will find a way here with plenty of hits tonight.  

Play 1 Unit on KC 

Nebraska -8.5 to -9

The Huskers were handed another late defeat last Saturday in Lincoln against the once ranked 13th Northwestern Wildcats, as the bad luck continues for the Huskers and first year coach Mike Riley.  Purdue is the PERFECT opponent for a blowout and on the road this year Nebraska has beaten up weak sisters like Minny and now Purdue who cannot trade punches on the scoreboard with Nebraska no matter how inept on defense the Huskers have been, especially on pass defense.  The Huskers are 10-2 ATS on the road their last 12 roadies and with Armstrong and the running game held in check last week, the Huskers will be happy to play the 99th ranked defense in CFB this week.  Huskers redeem themselves this week, this line should be 13 minimum.

Play 1 Unit on Nebraska

Ol Miss -7.5

Taking the Rebels here with Double revenge against a bad Auburn, whom you lest forget almost got beat by Jacksonville State in here earlier this year.  An impressive 23-3 blowout of a good Texas AM team last week restored confidence in Oxford.  Ol Miss playing with double revenge and remember Auburn ruined the Rebels party last year with a 4 point win at Ol Miss.  Better QB by far, better quick strike capability by Rebels and they get back 2 studs on defense and are playing a team who just lost a 4 OT game at paltry Arkansas last week.

Play 2 Units on Ol Miss – TOP PLAY

OVER 7 Runs

KC Bats red hot and while the Mets pitching staff are studs, they are young and KC is experienced and not intimidated and this is much more a hitters park than Kaufman Ballpark in KC and both teams will take advantage.  Look for KC to continue to put up runs against the Mets youth in pitching however good they are,  and I expect Ventura to give up more than his fair share as well.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Buffalo -7

The Bulls are a better than average MAC team and they are playing a team who cannot put points up on the board and turns the ball over like crazy, a -12 in turnover ratio with a defense that is a funnel to the end zone and gives up 5 yards per carry and a secondary that is suspect where good QB's are having a field day against them.  Bulls QB LIcata should have big night and the 1-2 punch Buffalo has a RB should flourish.  Red Hawk homefield not worth much either.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

BONUS PLAY HALF UNIT - Oregon +2.5 - Better QB and better offense and a healthy QB.  

Mets -127

PITCHING.  Cueto is unreliable and has over a 7 ERA in his last 3 starts and can get lit up like a Christmas tree against this rotation.  Degrom is a stud with added rest and under a 2 ERA his last 3.  Royals magic at home is hard to fade but no other way to look here tonight and this is coming from a Royals fan.

Play 1.5 units on the NY Mets 

OVER 7 runs

I cannot count on Volquez to hold down the Mets attack and it is obvious Harvey can go deep into the game but if KC can get some runs early, put runners in position and play small ball, I like their chances here of getting 3 to 4 runs here.  I also think Volquez will give up some runs as he was erratic thru most of the post season and while he increased his speed of pitches he gave up some accuracy.  Should be a hell of a game 1 and the side play is dead even.  KC can light it up at home and beat numerous low ERA pitchers in here this season and post season. Mets bullpen suspect  and I doubt they hols KC to 8 runs over 4 games like they did the Cubbies.  KC a determined team.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Cards / Ravens OVER 49

Baltimore secondary is deplorable and Carson Palmer will have a field day in this one.  I do think the Ravens pull out all the stops seeing that a 3rd string QB from Pittsburgh last week was able to penetrate the defense of the Cards last week.  Flacco an elite QB and Steve Smith an elite WR and Baltimore can run it as well.  

Play 1 Unit on the Over

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease Zona DOWN to -3 and tease the Total Down to 43 and take the OVER. 

Carolina -3

Like the Panthers here, still no respect and Philly in all honesty is not a good team they had more turnovers than NY did on MNF but the G Men so bad they made Philly look good.  When you get gifted a ton of turnovers and still struggle to score, what are you going to do against a Carolina defense that is a bad matchup, and even the average WR’s fro Carolina can find space against this P{Hilly defense.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Oakland +4

Look the Chargers defense is horrific, the worst secondary the NFL, and the defense is so bad that Rivers threw for over 500 yards last week and lost!  Everyone keeps waiting for the Chargers to emerge, they are not going to.  Oakland plays these guys tough every year, and the underdog in this series is an amazing 11-1 ATS and most of those if not damn near all of them have been Oakland, and the Raiders are 5-1 ATS their last 6 in San Diego.  Raiders off a bye week, and the Chargers blew their wad against Green Bay last week.  Honestly Jack Del Rio the better coach here too.   

Play 1 unit on Oakland  

NY Jets +8 to 9

Jets have covered 5 out of the last 6 times these two have played with teams not as good as this one.  Jets can trade points here all day – RB Ivory should have a huge day and eat clock, Decker and Marshall can make plays and you are paying a high price for Brady and company here who needed the whole game to beat Indy last week who is not near the team the Jets are.  Too many points, public ;loves New England, Sharps love the Jets and so do I.

Play 1 Unit on the Jets

OVER 52 Colts . Saints

Both dome teams, both QB’s are studs, neither defense all that good, both offenses open it up big here.  Really a no brainer gents, no stats needed.  The highest total on the board this week for a reason.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit Play – Tease NY Jets to +15 and tease Tampa Bay to +9.5 

Texas AM +5.5

Grab the points here as Ol Miss was exposed last week against a good Memphis team, however looking at the Ol Miss schedule would give anyone great pause as other than a fluke win over Alabama, they have played no one.  texas AM is SOLID and off a loss and will five Ol Miss fits, I think they win outright.

Play 1 Unit on Ol Miss 

Mizzou -2.5 to 3 max (there is a reason I put these games out on Wednesday) 

I know the Tigers failed to score a TD last week, and I know they are a shell of themselves on offense versus the past 2 seasons when they won the East Division in the SEC, but Mizzou folks is better than a Vandy team who lost to Western Kentucky in here.  Mizzou Frosh QB Lock getting more experience each week and off a tough loss at Georgia last week, who is vastly superior to Vandy, I see Mizzou bouncing back to win by 7-9 points in this one as they stop the bleeding after 2 straight losses here and get back on track.  Gary Pinkel the better coach here and will get his team ready for this one, a winnable game in the SEC on the road where they need a conference win after going down to Kentucky and Georgia already.  Mizzou has one of the best defenses in the SEC and a Top 10 defense in the country, defense wins games against bad teams even with a struggling offense.  Cheap number, my power rating has Mizzou at -7.

Play 2 Units on Mizzou – Top Play

Pitt -6.5 to 7 max

Two teams in different directions, and if it was not for a 3 point setback against undefeated Iowa, the Panthers would be an unbeaten team folks, they are sneaky good and under the radar right now, and Syracuse off a 3 OT loss last week to lowly Virginia, I am all over the Panthers in this one as they should be favored aby double digits.  Pitt is 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road and they have also covered the 6 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on Pitt

Rice -9

Army should not be able to hang with Rice here who is a cover machine at 14-5 ATS their last 19 and while Rice plays little defense not sure Army can exploit that with their offense.  Rice won by 20 last year and quite frankly both teams are about the same and Rice can put points up all day long here.

Play 1 Unit on Rice

Texas -4

With a week off and K State reeling from a 55-0 loss to OU, a team Texas beat the hell out of before their bye week, I do not k State has enough offense here to cover the number and Texas re-rejuvenated and they are at home here.  K State just does not have near the talent Texas does and I feel Texas will roll now after getting off the snide and remember two of their losses were last second special teams blunders including a 1 point loss to a very good Cal team.

Play 1 Unit on Texas 

Cal +3.5

UCLA’s defense without their leader since injury have surrendered 94 points in two games – WOW.  Now you have the best QB in college football coming in here and a high octane, quick strike offense led by Bears QB Goff who is coming off the worst outing in his career with 5 picks against Utah in a game they still competed in despite the turnovers, which is a tell-tale sign the right side here is with the better team, better QB and a surprisingly better defense than last year for the Bears.  Last year UCLA won this game by 2 points in a high scoring affair, and while UCLA frosh sensation QB Rosen is good, Goff is better.  Cal also had a bye week and added time to prepare and UCLA reeling off an ass whipping to Stanford, and UCLA has numerous injuries.

Play 1.5 Units on Cal

Royals +135

OK – Simple rule here, even on the road.  Better team getting juice on the moneyline is a take.  I will bet anytime I have a better team as an underdog.  Estrada averages less than 5 strike outs a game, gave up 3 earned runs in Game 1 which he lost and Volquez for KC pitched a very nice game in Game 1 in this series and never surrendered a run and KC blanked the Jays 5-0.  Toronto reeling after an embarrassment last night and no pressure on KC here who is experienced this deep into the playoffs and have the better bullpen and full of confidence. 

Play 1 Unit on KC 

Cubs +105

The Mets hitting right handers at .182 as a team their last 5, and while both teams have solid pitchers on the hill, including the Mets who have their hot hand on the hill, The Cubs at home down 0-2 in the NCLS for the first time in ages and ages, the home crowd will be a huge factor here and quite frankly the bats of the Cubs are better.  Back against the wall like the Blue Jays last night I see a Cubbies rally tonight Hendricks to have a better than average night on the hill for Chicago, whose WHIP is an amazing 0.54 his last 3 starts. Cubs have won 25 out of their last 33 home games folks and Mets are 2-9 against Chicago the last 11, those 2 wins coming in this series.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago 

Giants +5

The Giants have the better offense and Manning coming off a 400+ yard game against the Niners here.  Philly beat up on New Orleans bad defense last week after struggling for over half the game again.  Tom Coughlin versus Chip Kelly here, there is a mis match as well.  The defenses are both suspect, but with the lack of secondary for Manning to throw against here the Giants can put points up on the scoreboard and that brings points into play with we are dealing with a number here over a fall number of 3.  The Giants rank 12th in rush defense and 10th in scoring allowed on defense folks.  The Giants have ripped off 3 straight wins and beaten some pretty good teams and they are 3 plays away basically from being 5-0 headed into tonight.  Not sold on Philly yet and the Giants playing with double revenge here as Philly swept them last year.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants

2 Team 6 Point Same Game Teaser.  Tease the NY Giants to +11 and tease the Total DOWN to 44 and take the Over. 

UNDER 8 Runs

Stroman and Cueto are both in sync and I just do not see many hits here tonight.  Cueto is unpredictable at times since his stint with KC but as of late he has showed up and been the pitcher KC hired for this very moment and was damn near unhittable in last spot on the mound barring 1 bad pitch, and Toronto has been in a funk at the plate.  I would lean Blue Jays on the side but am unwilling to lay -175 to get them.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Carolina +7

Undefeated team catching points against a team with a losing record and they have an equal defense and better QB at throwing it,.  Battle of defenses here, Carolina at 100% health on defense and yes Seattle is a beast to play at home, but remember the Lions gave them a game in here and should have one.  Low scoring, points at a premium, I will gladly take them.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Full 1 Unit Play –  Tease San Fran to +8.5 and Tease Washington to +12 

Detroit -3

Like the Lions here at home, back against the wall, and while people think the Bears are all that with Cutler back – they beat KC who is horrific and they beat Oakland on a prayer and some lucky bounces, both teams have losing records.  Yes Zona blew out Detroit last week, but that was off a heartbreaker at Seattle on MNF and on a short week, they were doomed.  Lions own 5 straight home covers here and this line should be 6.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Arizona -3.5

Pittsburgh is a massive paper Tiger and look at their schedule and see who they beat, not a single team with a winning record.  Vick is no match for Palmer in trading punches on the scoreboard and Pitt off short week and travel from west coast here as well.  Ellington is back at RB, Chris Johnson has been running like the old days and they have weapons everywhere.  Big Ben may return?  I doubt it, still the Cards are vastly better, Pitt gets exposed.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona