#575 - Oklahoma -4.5   / 5 est

While 2 of the best players in the country are on the floor in this one Simmons for LSU and Hield for OU, it is Oklahoma who is loaded with talent and 3 point shooters all over the place, not to mention a better coach.  OU's only 2 losses are to top 20 teams.  LSU has only one player that shoots above 35% from 3 point range and I have to tell you the Big 12 is loaded with great teams, the SEC does not have the talent level of the Big 12, and OU is battle tested folks. 

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma 

#567 - Indiana State -3.5  /  4 est

Indiana State is a cover machine, 8-2 their last 10 and they have covered every Saturday for 2 months straight, 8-0 ATS.  Even on the road here I like them, as Loyola of Chicago in their last 5 has managed just 58 ppg on offense and in 10 home games this year have covered just 3 of them.  More firepower on offense and ISU has won 2 in a row including a blowout out over a good Evansville team.

Play 2 Units on Indiana State - TOP PLAY

VCU -2

Road game here at Davidson but VCU will remain undefeated in A-10 action after this one.  Davidson is undefeated at home but this is where thr rubber meets the road.  VCU is scoring machine at 86 ppg their last 5 playing a team allowing 80 ppg on defense.  VCU is a cover machine against the line at 11-4 ATS ont he season and they are the class of the Atlantic 10 conference and have the scorers and the bench to to cover the short numbrr here.

Play 1 Unit on VCU 

#541 - Virginia Tech +8.5   8 est

Louisville in a tough spot.  They have mighty Virginia on deck, then North Carolina.  BVT stood toe to toe with North Carolina in their last game losing by 5 and did beat Virginia this month and can hang tough here.  I tool Louisville this past Saturday and got beat and quite frankly they have beaten up a bunch of middle of the pack teams and lost to anyone good.  VT might not win but at home getting 8 with a capable team here and Louisville on back to back roadies with a look ahead spot, this is what I call a classic spot bet against the Cards and VT can play some ball. 

Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech 

#761 Wyoming +7.5 @ Fresno State   10 est 

Wyoming dropped a tough game vs Boise State Saturday without their leading scorer Josh Adams who was serving a one game suspension. Adams isn’t just the leading scorer of Wyoming, he isn’t just the leading scorer in the Mountain West conference, Adams is the fifth leading scorer in the nation averaging 24 points per game on the season.

Often times when a player of Adams ability with a long history of upstanding behavior gets in some hot water and has to sit for a game he comes back with a purpose. That is the expectation here as Adams may have missed the last game for Wyoming but scored 23 points in the prior game against Nevada and 38 in a road upset of New Mexico the game before that.

After a hot start to the season Fresno State has cooled off in the Mountain West. They have gone just 3-3 in their last six games and lost to both New Mexico and Boise State by double digits. In fact Fresno’s wins lately have not been impressive either as they beat perennial Mountain West doormat San Jose State by just seven at home and beat the other one win team Air Force by just one point in their last game.

Look for Adams to come out with some fire to prove a point here. Wyoming is a tough team to blow out regardless due to their style and pace of play but with the added fire of Adams return and the poor play of Fresno State lately, the upset alarms may be sounding Saturday. Even if Wyoming doesn’t get the outright win they should be able to keep this one within this generous number.

Play 1 Unit on Wyoming

#732 South Carolina -8 ½ vs Mississippi State

The Gamecocks lost their last game at Tennessee which was just the second loss of the season for South Carolina. Both of their losses have come on the road as they are undefeated playing at home or on a neutral floor.

South Carolina is 4-2 in the SEC but has already played four conference road games this season. The Gamecocks will be happy to get back home for this one where they have dominated opponents all season long.

If not for the Missouri Tigers, Mississippi State would be the unquestioned basement ruler of the SEC this season. They are 8-10 on the3 season and 1-5 in conference with just one win against a power conference team all season.

Mississippi State is 294th in the nation in rebounding and 239th in points allowed this season. Neither of those stats bode well against a tough interior team like South Carolina who consequentially is 15th in the nation in rebounding grabbing almost 42 boards per game and is allowing just 67.5 points per game this season. A South Carolina team that has spent too many nights in conference on the road gives a home court whipping to the struggling Bulldogs.

Play 1 Unit on SC

#718 Georgetown-3 ½ vs Creighton  6:30 est

This is a critical revenge spot for Georgetown and a huge game for both teams in terms of NCAA tournament hopes. Creighton won the first meeting at home 79-66 as they caught Georgetown flat off the big Marquette win.

The Hoyas enter this one off a loss to UCONN 68-62 on the road. Prior to that loss they pulled a huge upset by beating top 10 Xavier on the road. The Hoyas have alternated wins and losses all season. Coming off a loss it is not unreasonable to expect a huge effort from the Hoyas here at home. Georgetown is 5-2 in the Big East this season and are still within range of 7-1 Villanova but need a big win here to keep their Big East title hopes alive.

Georgetown senior guard D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is averaging 19.4 points per game his last five and when he gets hot the Hoyas normally win games. Look for a fired up Georgetown team with revenge on their minds to take care of business at home and cover this number.

Play 1 Unit on Georgetown 

Miami -3

Duke just is not all that, a terrible cover team and did you see them sputter all day until late on Saturday against a very bland NC State team?  Miami is a good team, at home with one of the better backcourts in all the nation.  Duke has dropped 4 out of 11 since Jefferson is out and lack the depth with only a 6 man total rotation for the most part. Only a 3 point spread here and yet the moneyline is -160 on Miami?  What does that tell you.  A lesser ranked team laying points against the biggest public favorite to bet is a sure sign Vegas knows the winner in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

BONUS PLAY:  Iowa State -2 – Kansas not a good road team and Iowa St at Hilton Coliseum is an absolute beast.  Half Unit  

OVER 47.5 to 48  Carolina / Arizona

Yeah both have pretty good defenses, and this game might come down to a big defensive play, but overall these two offenses should put up some points here.  Carolina scored 31 against Seattle in 2 quarters last week with the help of a defensive TD and all that, but Carson Palmer will test this secondary and Cam Newton will also test a Cards defense that gave up some yards last week against an average Green Bay team.  Other than Norman at DB for Carolina, Palmer should be able to attack this secondary with numerous weapons at WR.  I smell a shootout here.  Weather is expected to be a high of 48 and sunny.  Carolina will attack on the ground and Newton you will see taking off with it in busted coverage and over pursuit on the pass rush. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

2 team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit – Tease BOTH underdogs – Arizona to +9 and Denver to +9

# 857 - Southern Illinois -1   4 EST tip 

Mo State looks hot with a 4-1 run, but all 4 wins were against bottom feeders and I am not sold on them even at home in this game as Southern Illinois is 7-0 SU on the road, and are a 17-3 team who is 6-1 in Mo Valley Action this season.  Mizzou States Boone, one of their best players is listed as doubtful with a bad ankle and that is a huge KEY in this game!  He won't be 100% if he plays and they need him badly.  Also of note is SIU's head coach used to be Mo States coach and has never beat them as SIU head coach yet.  Couple of big ones on deck for the Saluki's so this is a huge road game for them because the schedule gets tougher their next 2.  

Play 1 Unit on an undefeated Mo Valley road team - Southern Illinois 

Denver +3

Taking Manning over Brady – but that is not the tale here.  It is Denver to beat New England Straight up.  Better defense at home getting points.  Better running game at home getting points in a Championship game.  Basic Handicapping rules 101!  TAKE THE POINTS  Denver should be able to run it right at New England all day.  Manning will have success through the air if this is the case.  On the other hand New England’s greatest strength is passing it, and they face a team who can get after the QB and sack him (NFL high 52 sacks this year) unlike Kansas City last week, and Denver has the best pass defense in the NFL.  Mile High Stadium also worth a couple of points here, and New England has not been a good road team this year. 

Play 1 Unit on Denver

#595 - Arizona -3   - 8:30 est
Going to fade a 12-0 at home Cal Bears team without their best player Tyrone Wallace.  Cal has went big versus small since his injury but will lack the offense needed against a Wildcat team who can flat out score and are big and deep.  Cal's toughest test at home, Zona off a huge win and rolling since they lost 4 games ago at USC. 
 Play 1 Unit on Arizona 

Louisiana Tech -6
LT just beat up a bad Southern Miss team by 30 points 21 days ago laying 17 points and now they lay 6 on the road?  So. Miss is only scoring 59 ppg on the season, one of the worst on offense in the NCAA and conversely LT can flat out score, averaging 79 ppg and they lit up the Eagles for 87 last time they played.
Play 1 Unit on Louisiana Tech

Arizona -3
Going to fade a 12-0 at home Cal Bears team without their best player Tyrone Wallace.  Cal has went big versus small since his injury but will lack the offense needed against a Wildcat team who can flat out score and are big and deep.  Cal's toughest test at home, Zona off a huge win and rolling since they lost 4 games ago at USC. 
 Play 1 Unit on Arizona 
Louisville -6
Allowing just 358 ppg and scoring 80 will get you to a point where you are 15-3 and off an impressive 19 point win for Florida state and they also beat Pitt by double digits.  The Cards are 17 ppg better on defense than Georgia tech and I like them on the road here.
Play 1 Unit on Louisville 

# 852 - Orlando -3.5   7:05 est tip 

Charlotte has not won a road game since December 11th and they have Batum, Zeller and Lamb out tonight!  They are 2-8 ATS on the road their last 10 games and 0-10 SU!   Orlando off a loss at Philly which is embarrassing and I look for them to rebound tonight at home where they have already beaten Charlotte once this year by 15.  Injured Hornets team in trouble here against a perceived patsy and a weak line.  Bear in mind Batum is the Hornets second leading scorer.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando 

#510 NY Knicks -2.5   7:35 est 

Cheap line against Utah here whose only 2 wins dating back to the 9th of this month have been against the hapless Lakers.  NY playing with triple revenge and also avenging a 21 point loss on the road at Utah back on Dec 9.  I like the way the NY is playing as of late and although they needed OT to beat Philly in their last game, they have the better team at home, laying less than 3 points against a team who has lost 14 out of 20 road games this year.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks 

#523 - Central Florida -3 to 3.5  6:15 est

South Florida cannot cover a spread to save their life and cannot beat a team with a winning record.  The Knights who are off a 20 point blowout of rival East Carolina on Saturday are getting better while the Bulls are not.  The Knights are on a 8-3 run and score 13 ppg more on offense than the Bulls of South Florida, who are ranked in the bottom 15 teams in the nation in scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Central Florida

BONUS PLAY – Florida State +10 – Half Unit 

# 752 Evansville -13 to 13.5.    9 est

Willing to lay this number tonight.  The Purple Aces are scoring 83 ppg at home and Loyola Chicago scoring 54 ppg on the road and just 60 ppg overall.  Evansville no joke and one of the top 2 teams in the Mo Valley.  Evansville 10-0 at home and rolling and extra rest after playing on Friday versus Saturday. 

Play 1 Unit on Evansville

#745  Northwestern +12.5 to 13     8 est

The pace of play slowed down with the Wildcats and their ability to put up points as a pesky team should make this game interesting.  Total 136 and with a low total points at a premium.   Northwestern played a horrific game against Penn St their last game, could not hit a shot – they bounce back on offense here and cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on Northwestern

# 741 Clemson +10.5    8 EST

Clemson red hot and winners over Duke this season already and while Virginia is a top tier team, Clemson being disrespected by oddsmakers with this line.  Yes the Tigers are not all that good on the road, but I am not laying 10 points with a team who has went 1-3 in their last 4 games.  Clemson has knocked off some heavyweights guys and are full of confidence.  They lose but cover here.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson 

Texas Tech –2.5

TCU a bad hoops team and off an all-out effort  at Kansas this past Saturday is in a tough spot.  Texas Tech is a good ball club and Tubby Smith is making strides and they have played the 8th hardest schedule in the nation.  These two teams are tied for last in the Big 12, but again I should note the schedule Texas tech as played.  All in all with Trent is still uncertain for TCU on suspension their guard play leaves something to be desired and with TT not winning a true road game all year, I will take the better coach on a short number and off an inspiring performance against Baylor Saturday to get it done here.

Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech 

Carolina -2.5

Getting this under a field goal is a great line.  If not for Blair Walsh missing a 27 yard shank FG last week, Seattle would not be here.  Carolina well rested, at home where they are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS and score 30 ppg on offense and allow 17 ppg on defense.  This is a 1 loss team that has the NFL’s MVP starting at QB (he will win it) and between Newton and Wilson, I will take Newton who already has beat Seattle on the road this year and Carolina is avenging a bad playoff loss to Seattle last year.  All the makings of a good game here, but a home team with a rock start QB, better running game and just as good of defense with Newton at the helm is a take.

Play 3 Units on Carolina 

#714 Tennessee St Pick to +1 - 8:30 est tip
Tennessee State has not beaten Murray State since 2012!  A home team here laying less than a field goal against a bad road team.  Murray State lost everyone basically from a great team last year, and have not won a true road game all year and only are putting up 62 ppg on the road and allowing 73.  TSU has a vastly better offense and will be highly motivated to win this game tonight where they are 6-1 on their home floor this year and 13-4 overall.  
Play 1 Unit on Tennessee St 

OVER 49 to  50  Packers / Cards (line all over the place) 

I expect Green Bay to put up some points here after getting embarrassed in game 1 with the Cards, and I also expect Zona to  get it done on offense big time here, especially with rest.  The Cards defense was exposed by Seattle 2 weeks ago and trust me the coaching staff will be looking at that film from Green Bay and you can also expect Aaron Rodgers to take off a lot in this game and move the chains. 

Play 1 Unit on the Over

2 Team 6 Point Teaser.  Tease New England to +1 to +2 (line depending) and Tease Green Bay to +13  - 1 U

#653 Missouri St -4.5 - 8 est tip
Look Bradley is a fade team all the way - they are almost dead last on offense in the NCAA and in their last 5 games have averaged 47 pphg - just unreal.  MSU no offensive juggernaut themselves but they are capable here and do not forget Mizzou St upset Northern Iowa last week and also beat Okie State.  I know 2 bad teams here and laying it on the road is dangerous in that scenario but Bradley simply cannot score.

Play 1 Unit on Missouri St

#617 Oklahoma State +7.5 - 6 est tip
Okie State owns Texas, always has, won both games last year and 6 out of the last 7.  Coach Smart of Texas a good coach but has the wrong players for his style.  Although Okie State is not the best Cowboy team Travis Ford has had, they are long and athletic and have a great shooter in Evans and lead the conference on defense.  Okie St getting a ton of points here as they have dropped 3 straight in ugly fashion, and the stats favor Texas, but Okie St will make a game of this and keep it within the number.
Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma State

New England -4 to 5

My hear is with KC since I live here, but it also gives me clarity for KC.  Their biggest weapon is Smith running it in busted pass blocking for him, the Pats can take that away.  Also no WR is going to open long enough for Smith to throw it.  Andy Reid makes bonehead calls, always has, and he is 1-4 as a head coach versus Mr. Hoodie.  Brady versus Alex Smith is also a no brainer.  KC will have issues running it against the Pats DL and not sure if they double up on Kelce at TE, how KC is going to score.  Injuries are an issue and the OL of the Pats is suspect, but it is Bready at home in the Playoffs, and his teams pedigree and experience, they win by a TD to 10 points.

Play 1 Unit on New England

# 871 Evansville -5   9 est 

2 of the Top Players in the Mo Valley here on the floor for the Purple Aces in Ballentine and Mockevicius.  Evansville Offense efficiency rating second highest in this conference and love their chances here as a I have a 6 point overlay against the spread on power ratings , even ion the road. 

Play 1 Unit on Evansville 

#745 Wisconsin Milwaukee +12 ½ vs Valparaiso - 8 EST

Many people feel as though the Horizon League title is a foregone conclusion this season and that Valparaiso will simply stroll to the regular season title and possibly even an at large bid in the NCAA tournament. Yet Milwaukee may be the one team in the Horizon league that has something to say about that.

Milwaukee was not eligible for the postseason last year as they were dealing with APR issues but they entered this season with an experienced and deep squad that is pushing for some postseason this year, possibly even beyond their own conference tournament.

Milwaukee is 12-5 on the season and will surely be fired up for their first crack at Horizon league big dog Valpo. Milwaukee is 8-2 in their last 10 and have won three straight conference games. Milwaukee has been an extremely strong road team this year where they have already beaten the likes of Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road in non conference games.

Milwaukee is 15th in the nation in assists per game averaging 17.9 assists per game while scoring 78.8 points per contest. The defense has also picked up lately and they are averaging 64.7 points per game in their last three contests.

Valparaiso is clearly the favorite in the Horizon and for good reasons as they have the 4th ranked defense nationally giving up only 59.3 points per game. That stat may be slightly misleading as they played a relatively soft non conference schedule. The one ranked team they played in then #25 Oregon scored 73 points and beat Valpo. They have also had poor shooting nights including a horrible shooting night in an inexplicable 69-66 loss to a bad Ball State team and an 85-81 loss to Belmont where the defense didn’t show up.

Valpo’s best win of the season is likely against Rhode Island who currently sits at #84 in the RPI. Milwaukee is deep with five players that all average double digit scoring and have nine players that average at least 15 minutes per game. Look for this one to be close throughout and while calling for the straight up upset on the road may be a little bold they should easily stay within this generous number.

1 Unit on Wisconsin Milwaukee 

#716 Michigan State -8 vs Iowa  - 7EST

Boy I am starting to get nervous now as this is the second straight favorite that I select which is ultra rare for me. I also hate to get in front of a red hot team like Iowa but this one hits multiple key handicapping protocols that have been very successful in the past.

First off is the revenge factor with a superior team. As we have seen time and time again when an undefeated or very good team loses to an inferior team and then plays them again in a relatively short span normally it doesn’t bode well for the underdog.

Rarely does the inferior team win again especially if there were abnormal circumstances in the game. Let’s use the Golden State Warriors run this season as an easy and recent example. They opened 24-0 before losing to Milwaukee Bucks improbably. Yet it was the Warriors seventh straight road game and they were obviously fatigued and managed to score just 95 points in the 108-95 loss to the Bucks. The two teams played six days later in Golden State and the Warriors put up 121 points a 26 point differential.

Michigan State started this season 13 -0 before losing 83-70 to Iowa on the road. Yet this also brings us to the second key component of this game which is the fact that the first time these two teams played was the first game Michigan State was without star F Denzel Valentine who was injured and missed the game.

Now Valentine has been back with a  game under his belt and revenge on his mind. The Spartans have won three straight games including a 92-65 blowout of Penn State in Valentine’s first game back from injury in which he showed little rust in scoring 10 points and grabbing four rebounds in 23 minutes. He will be at full strength when these two play the rematch Thursday.

Michigan State is averaging over 80 points per game this season and is 2nd in the nation averaging 21.1 assists per game. They are also 5th in the nation in rebounding. This one could get ugly as Michigan State not only looks for revenge but to get back into contention for the BIG TEN conference title which early in conference play may go through undefeated Iowa who is 3-0 in conference play. Michigan State wins by double digits in a very favorable spot.

#732 Wright State -7 vs Cleveland State

Wright State is just 8-8 on the season but six of their eight losses came on the road and only one loss this season has actually been a true home game. They played a tough non conference schedule that included Kentucky and Xavier and have rebounded well with a 2-1 record in the Horizon league with the only conference loss coming on the road at perennial Horizon League contender Wisconsin Green Bay.

Wright State is led by senior F JT Yoho, who has dealt with injuries throughout his career but when healthy has routinely been one of the best players in the conference. Yoho has been playing great basketball as of late with 30 points and 16 rebounds in his last two games.

Cleveland State is and has been one of the worst teams in the Horizon League all season. They are just 5-12 on the season and are 0-3 in conference. They are just 4-12 on the season against Division I opponents. Cleveland State is averaging just 62.8 points per game this season which is tied for 336th in the nation out of just over 350 teams.

Cleveland State ranks 301st in the nation in rebounds and 339th in assists so not much is going well for this team that has lost four straight games by a combined score of 325-277.

Look for Wright State to come out firing in this one at home as they knoe getting to 3-1 in the conference is important and at some point demoralization may start to set in for a team that has had so many shortcomings as Cleveland State has had this season. This one has blowout written all over it.

# 553 Marquette +18 @ Villanova - 8:30 EST 

Marquette continues to be one of the most underrated teams in the nation and has been a profit machine for me all season. I had them +9 and moneyline vs Providence last week. Marquette is 12-4 on the season despite playing an extremely tough schedule. They have already beaten Arizona State, Providence, LSU, and Wisconsin this season. They only have four losses and most come against top tier teams. 

Marquette not only has more than enough firepower to cover this inflated number but they also have an advantageous matchup scenario tonight with their star C Henry Ellenson as the Villanova team is soft in the middle and doesn’t have any one player that can guard the 6-10 Ellenson, who is almost averaging a double-double this season scoring 16 points per game and grabbing 9.9 rebounds per contest. The big man also dishes out 2.3 assists and blocks 1.5 shots per game. 

Villanova will likely prove to have too much depth in the end for Marquette to pull the straight up upset but they have more than enough firepower to keep this one close and easily cover this number is Ellenson can avoid foul trouble and stay on the floor. Villanova also in the look ahead spot here as they travel to their longtime arch rival Georgetown on Saturday with 1st place in the BIG East on the line so the Wildcats may very well be looking towards that huge Saturday showdown and past tonight’s underrated opponent. 

Atlanta -3   7 EST Tip 
Cheap line as we fade Charlotte who has dropped 12 out of 15 games.  Hawks coming in here on 4 days rest after a blowout win over the Bulls Saturday.  The Hornets are simply a fade team right now and the Hawks already won in here back in November.  In their last 5 games the Hornets are giving up 11 more points than they are scoring- that is not good against the high flying Hawks
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

#768 UNLV -5.5 vs New Mexico

There is a long standing track record of success with teams the first game after a coaching change. Players are eager to prove it was the coaching and not the players that led to the disappointment the team was enduring. That is exactly the case here as UNLV coach Dave Rice has resigned as head coach of UNLV after five straight disappointing seasons despite getting the best recruiting classes since the Tarkanian era.

UNLV has a McDonalds All American in freshman center Stephen Zimmerman and an all conference player G Patrick McCaw who is averaging 13 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. There is plenty of talent and depth on this UNLV roster and expect a spirited effort from the rebels here. This team has already proved how good they can be this season when playing their best with wins over Indiana and Oregon as well as a close loss to Arizona.

New Mexico entered conference play losers of four straight games including an embarrassing 82-59 loss to an average Washington State squad as well as a 30-point loss to BYU and losses to Rice and Auburn. They have rebounded with a 3-0 start to Mountain West play but two of those three wins came at home and they have yet to play any of the top tier Mountain West teams in San Diego State or Boise State.

Look for a fired up UNLV squad to play hard and get an easy win here as they are too deep and too talented for this New Mexico team.

Play 1 Unit on UNLV

#726 Central Michigan +2.5 vs Kent State - 7 EST

It would be easy to look at the records of these two teams and think that this line seems way too low. Yet when we take a deeper dive and look at these two teams we find that they are much closer to even than they appear on the surface.

Central Michigan enters this game with an unassuming 8-7 record. Yet  four of the seven losses have come by six points or less. They are an experienced team that won 23 games last season and received and played in the NIT. They are still scoring the basketball at a fare rate averaging 78 points per game which puts them in the top 90 in the nation out of over 350 teams.

The problem has been on the defensive end where they are allowing almost 75 points per game and getting beaten on the boards as well. Yet they have started to get back to basics on the defensive end and have given up 67 and 66 points in their last two wins.

The biggest problem for CMU was that they played their first seven games without star G Chris Fowler who had an injury. Fowler returned on December 15 and has just started to get his basketball legs back under him. Fowler has scored in double digits five straight games and has 20 assists in his last three games. When Fowler is healthy the CMU offense runs through him.

Akron is the class of the MAC EAST as they were projected to win the East and Central Michigan was projected to win the West. Akron enters this one with an impressive 13-2 record but has only one win against a top 100 team and that was against Iona who was just on the inside of the top 100 at the time. The one game they played against a ranked team they lost 75-56 to Villanova. They played an extremely weak non conference schedule.

CMU is starting to resemble the team that was projected to win the MAC West pre season now that Fowler is back after missing the first seven games of the season. CMU is led by five seniors and they will be fired up for their last chance to beat Akron in their home building and now their season could finally turn around with a big win here. Fowler is fully healthy and playing at an elite level again which allowed junior Braylon Rayson to move over to the two guard spot where he is shooting over 40% from 3-point range and scoring 17 points per game on the season.

Play 1 Unit on Cen. Michigan

#741 Kansas -1 @ West Virginia - 7 est

The Mountaineers are 14-1 and Tuesday they will host #1 Kansas in what will surely be one of the most anticipated games of the week, especially after last week’s Kansas/Oklahoma slugfest. The difference here is that West Virginia is not nearly as good as Oklahoma is. The Mountaineers have yet to beat a ranked team all season and the only ranked team they played (Virginia) beat them by 16 points.

West Virginia relies heavily on it’s pressure defense to create turnovers for as team that does not shoot great and gets lots of easy baskets off turnovers. As we saw in the Virginia loss and a win vs Richmond in Vegas when you don’t turn the ball over and pack it in the paint and make West Virginia shoot the ball from outside they are very beatable.

Kansas will not succumb to the pressure defense as they have veteran ball handlers bringing up the ball against that pressure in Frank Mason III and Wayne Seldon.  Also West Virginia commits the most fouls in the BIG 12 and that will not work out well for them in this game if they send Kansas to the free throw line as the Jayhawks shoot 72% from the free throw line as a team.

Kansas is the exact type of team that gives West Virginia fits as they don’t turn the ball over, easily advance the ball past pressure, and shoot free throws well from the line. Look for Kansas to be a little better in every aspect of the game. They are too deep to get tired by the constant pressure and will wear down West Virginia and win this one going away.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

Clemson +6.5 to 7

You have to ask yourself this question.  Who has beaten Alabama over the past 3 years and what was the makeup of the team?  It was teams who ran a spread attack with a dual threat QB.  The strength of Bama’s team is their defense, especially in the middle of the field.  The outside and edges can be exposed, just ask Ol Miss.  In big games over the past 3 years they lost to Auburn (at the time a spread attack), Oklahoma and Johnny Football led Texas AM, all spread attack teams, and there is NO doubt Clemson runs a spread attack with the best spread QB in the country.  Michigan State ran it right at Bama and got killed and had no vertical threat, bad prep by MSU’s coaching staff who Sabin has 3 weeks to prep for on his end and knew it.  Clemson has the best QB in the game,  Clemson DOMINATED an Oklahoma team vastly better than Michigan State.  Alabama’s offense is predicated on the run, Clemson can slow down that run and put the game on Bama’s QB who by QB standards is average at best.  Alabama is not invincible folks, and have some weakness’s that play into Clemson’s hands.  Mobile QB’s and spread attacks give Alabama trouble.  Did I mention Clemson’s defense is no slouch? 

Play 1 Unit on Clemson to cover the number.

Thanks for all your CFB business this season.  The bowls were not my best, but overall I hope you cashed out plenty of tickets this season.   

 #108 -Washington (Pick) TO -1

What’s not to like about Washington.  After getting hammered by Carolina, QB Cousins ripped off 14 TD passes and 1 pick and Washington is playing at home against a Green Bay team in disarray, off a bad loss, and quite frankly an OL that is total cheesecloth. Rodgers has no time to throw the ball, they cannot run it either with any consistency.  I do not see even with Rodgers at QB the Packers just flipping a switch and playing great ball because the last 6 weeks or so have been flat out bad football.  They are an average team at best, could not even win a crappy division and they had at least 5 wins this year where they were totally outplayed.

Play 2 Units on Washington – TOP PLAY

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser – tease Minny to +11 and Tease Washington to +6 – Play 1 Unit 

Minnesota +5

Going take Minny to Cover and Seattle to win.  With frigid temps at -20 in this game on the field, Minny has practiced outside all week, Seattle has been indoors.  While Seattle has experience, the legion of boom, and Russel Wilson, Minny has revenge on their mind and in a game where running the ball is going to be very important that favors Minny, and Minny has a healthy defense as opposed to the last game, and AP running the ball for Minny is going to be huge.  I expect a low scoring game which brings points into play, and I see a down to wire game here and Zimmer will have his boys ready.  Do not read too much into the Arizona win last week for Seattle, St Louis punked them in their house the week before.

Play 1 Unit on Minny

#660 - Texas Tech +7.5  - 9 EST

Spot bet against Kansas off a 3 OT win against Oklahoma on MOnday and th8is is Tubby Smiths best team he has had since taking over Texas Tech.  Red Raiders 9-0 at home and play great defense.  Lubbock will be rocking here for mighty KU.  This is too many points in this spot.
Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech

OVER 46 Pitt / Cincy

The Steelers have a prolific offense and not so good of a defense and look for Cincy to utilize every weapon known to mankind to win a playoff game at home using McCarron and the running game to set up big passes down the field, and you may even see an Andy Dalton sighting here. The Steelers defense nothing to brag about and Cincy has talent everywhere surrounding their second string QB. The Steelers offense and quick strike capability will be in full effect with RB Williams questionable and Big Ben will be gunning all day.  The last game had 52 points with Dalton going out early.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit – Tease Kansas City / Houston TOTAL UP to 46 and take the Under.  Tease Cincy to +9  

#629 - Arizona -2.5  - 7 EST
Thew Wildcats off a heartbreaking loss to rival UCLA on last second shot, but they Ryan Anderson on the floor, the best player in the PAC 12 bar none.  They also have the best starting 5 in the PAC 12 as well and York is no joke.  USC has a good team but AZ dominated them last year winning by 20 and 30 points and AZ on a mission this week to bounce back, and this number under a 3 pointer is a gift.
Play 1 Unit on Arizona 

#599 - Florida State +8  5 PM
Too many points for Miami to give up here.  FSU is long and athletic and are a demon on the road at 10-2 ATS their last 12 road games.  This one should go down to the wire and an outright win by FSU is possible.

Play 1 Unit on Florida State

Kansas City -3

Going with a hot team, KC who is on a 10-0 run, 7-3 ATS and fund a way to almost win their division after a 1-5 start.  Ask yourself this question, who has the better coach and better QB?  That is Kansas City.  A strong running game, a QB that does not turn it over a a ball hawking secondary up against QB Hoyer and a better than average defense with Andy Reid calling the shots.  KC has struggled in the post season but you cannot deny a 10 game run and Houston has issues on offense.  KC also has great special teams.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

#567 - Wisconsin - Milwaukee -5  3 EST
Cleveland St has dropped 3 straight qand 4 out of their last 5 games and Wisconsin-Milwaukee is on a roll and have an 11 win team here with some very solid offense and have been scoring lights out.  Better on Offense, defense, rebounding and shooting percentage and have some depth as well. Akeem Springs an absolute rock star for WM and they are scoring 80 ppg their last 5 games as opposed to CSU who is scoring just 65.  Lot of sharps like the home dog here, not me, I will lay it on the road.
Play 1 Unit on Wis.- Milwaukee 

William and Mary -3.5

Play at dreadful Drexel who is a paltry 2-11 on the year and allowing more points than they are scoring on the year.  WM is a decent ball club and are 9-4 on the year and scoring ppg on offense than the Dragons.  As I look to the handicapping stats WM have a distinct edge in EVERY Stat category that counts.  Free Throws, Offense, Defense, Rebounding, Bench, turnovers and FG%.  As a matter of fact the Dragons are hitting just 34% from the floor in their last 5 games, while WM is hitting 46%.  Short number here on the road, willing to lay it.

Play 1 Unit on William and Mary – Tip at 7 EST 

Southern Illinois -11.5

Bradley is a bad team.  They ranked at #320 or worse in 10 of the Top stat categories I handicap.  I also know the Mo Valley well and SIU is having a great year.  13-2 and rolling.  Although Wichita St on deck, they are playing a team who has lost 12 division one games in a row, score 56 ppg on offense and allow 71.  Absolute blowout here.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Illinois 

LSU +4.5

Ben Simmons for LSU is the first pick in the draft next year and John Calipari faces a guy who is out of his mold of one and done’s superstar freshman.  Simmons has shot at least 60% from the floor in his last 6 games in a row and is a one man wrecking crew.  Kentucky has allowed a whopping 87 ppg on the road while scoring only 77.  LSU at home will be jacked up for this one and I feel the wrong team is favored.

Play 1 Unit on LSU  

Minnesota +3 - may wait to get 3.5 everywhere..line going up...public loves to bet the Packers! 
Not laying points with Green Bay here, last week they were exposed and Minny playing with revenge here after a home loss and Zimmer will have his boys fired up and look for Petersen to have a big day here.  Green Bay's offense is not in sync and the defense is overworked because of it, Minny finds a way here to win SU.
Play 1 Unit on Minny

Seattle +6.5 
Zona really has nothing to play for and this line is an over reaction to Zona's blowout of a very over rated Packer team and a Seahawks loss last week to a feisty Rams team.  Doubt Seattle lays down here under Carroll and catching them off a loss getting almost a TD against a team looking to get into the playoffs healthy is a gift.
Play 1 Unit on Seattle

Oakland +7 to 7.5
Kansas City's offense is not all that good and Oakland always gives KC fits.  A lot on the line for KC here and Del Rio will pull out all the stops against a hated rival, KC has their 2 best players out on defense in Houston and Hali and have no pass rush, and I doubt QB Carr turns it over 3 times in the second half this time around.   Also moving this game to later in the day is an advantage for Oakland. 
Play 1 Unit on Oakland

2 Team 6 Points Teaser - Play 1 Unit - Tease Buffalo to +8.5 and tease Pittsburgh down to -5.  

UNDER 47 New England / Miami - Top Play
Did you watch New England last week?  Looking to get out of here healthy and the Pats even skipping a 2 minute offense last week and didn't try to score at certain points.  Miami cannot run and New England's front 4 should stuff the Fish and I doubt either team sees 17-20 points in this game.  Pats will be very vanilla and Miami can't score.  
PLAY 2 Units - TOP PLAY

Arizona State +2

Last I saw West Virginia they were getting beat by a 5 win Kansas State team.  West Virginia on the road is a trainwreck.  Speaking of the road, this game is at Chase Field in Phoenix (Diamondbacks stadium) so it is a home game basically for the Sun Devils.  Should be a shootout of sorts here.  AZ State blitzes the QB well, and now healthy across the board on offense for the Sun Devils at all skill positions,  their read option attack should give WV fits and I see them by a TD here.
Play 1 Unit on AZ State 

#511 - Bucks +1.5

Are you kidding me?  The T Wolves have no offense as of late just 90 ppg their last 5 and fresh off a 25 point ass kicking and the Bucks are rolling and off am impressive win over the Pacers.  Better team with momentum here catching points against a struggling offense.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

TCU / Oregon OVER 78

Both these are healthy and both these teams near the top of the food chain in CFB on offense, and conversely, neither one of them can stop anyone, especially Oregon, who has to win shootouts to win games and with a Healthy Boykin at QB for TCU and WR Docston back, and a healthy and prepared Adams at QB for Oregon, have no illusions, this one will be a track meet indoors in a dome in San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Oregon -7
No other way to look.  90% of TCU's offense out with the QB suspended, starting Big 12 1st team center out, and their stud WR out.  Boykin gave them a chance, now they have none and Oregon absolutely turned it around the second half of the season, and QB Adams a stud and bear in mind the Big 12 has looked like dogshit for the most part in the bowls.  Oregon beat a good Stanford team and TCU without weapons are dead here, Oregon will attack on defense up front.  Oregon's bad defense will not have much of a challenge.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon 

Georgia -6
Anyone see how the Big 10 is performing in big games in the postseason outside of Ohio State?  Georgia without a head coach and Penn Sate whose offense is woeful is without an OC as he fired after the last game.  It is Georgia's defense allowing 16 ppg against a struggling offense and a QB who completed just 53% of his passes is the key in this game.  Too much speed for Penn State to handle and outside of running the ball Penn State cannot play from behind in hurry up mode.
Play 1 Unit on Georgia

Notre Dame +6

Ohio St may have been the over rated team in the nation all year outside of fellow brethren Michigan State and we saw what Bama did to them already.  Notre Dame defense is the key to this game and if they stop the run which they can, OSU's passing offense ranked dead last in the Big 10 this year.  

Play 1 Unit on the IRISH

Bonus Play - Stanford -6 for half unit 

Michigan State +9.5 to 10

In a low scoring game which is expected here, big points is always a take.  Alabama did nothing on offense to impress me all year and they struggled against a bad Auburn team for their season finale and sputtered most the game in the SEC Championship and are not capable of making big plays for the most part other than Henry breaking a big run, and Michigan State has the better QB and the best resume of any team in the Final 4 with some big wins, and despite a lone loss to Nebraska, in a game where the refs gave the game to Nebraska, I expect the MSU defense to contain Henry and for Conner Cook at QB for Sparty to make some plays down the field.  MSU never gives up, are well coached and are from a conference where they are champs that had 4 teams ranked in the Top 10 at seasons end.

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State

Clemson +3.5

Wrong team favored.  Not sold on Bob Stoops in a Bowl game or a big game, his reputation does not match his bowl record and bear in mind Clemson without their starting QB last year in a bowl game waxed OU.  No doubt a shootout here with 2 good offenses and 2 good coaches and some big playmakers on both sides of the ball.  It has been an added time for OU since they have played since the Big 12 has no Championship and I think the overall team speed for the Tigers here is an advantage, and they are playing up the no respect card as being #1 and still an underdog.  Clemson only allowed a 46% completion rate through the air this year to opponents and are stout against the run.  Also DC Vennables is Bob Stoops ex DC and knows the OU system well as evidenced last year in a 40-6 win over the Sooners.  

Play 1 Unit on Clemson 

Houston + 7

Florida State just ain’t all that and anyone who has seen Houston play this year know Greg Ward is a rock star stud QB for the Cougars that can absolutely kill any defense and is unstoppable.  Yes they face a better defense than average but this is a legitimate conference champion shown no respect with a good head coach, and a team that shut down Navy and Southern Miss and has but 1 loss all season.  The Cougs have bowl experience after a wild comeback win over Pitt last year in the bowl game for them as well.  Florida State does have quality players and will put up some points here but at days end giving Houston and their dual threat QB this many points is a mistake.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

USC -3

First look at strength of schedule.  Wisconsin ranked 70th and USC ranked 3rd in scheduling.  Huge advantage here for USC as well, they are playing within an hour bus ride of campus and a strong home field type advantage.  Thirdly and most important, QB Kessler the best QB in the game, and the Trojans have vastly more firepower on offense.  USC lost to only Top 15 opponents, Waxed Utah and UCLA this season and the new head coach is well liked by his players and USC playing a more physical type of football and also running it.  Wisconsin does not have one quality win, got beat by every good team they played and cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here.

Play 3 Units on USC 

# 249 - Memphis +3

Although a few WR’s out for Memphis here or questionable, prefer to “take” points with Memphis who went into a tailspin after Navy beat them at home, and then lost 2 in a row on the road, one of those a 1 point to Houston who is a conference champ.  They ended the season with a 63-0 whitewashing of SMU.  Yes their head coach is on to VT, but Darrell Dickey takes the reins for this game as head coach and the NFL bound Paxton Lynch at QB is a dam rock star player and will put up points.  Auburn lost DC Muschamp to the South Carolina job and he will not be coaching, and have the worst QB of the two in this game by a longshot.  Also backup Sam White for Auburn at QB is out if needed with injury.  Bear in mind Memphis DESTROYED the SEC’s Ol Miss this season and have the power on offense to score more than an Auburn attack ranked 94th nationally.  Memphis will be motivated, not sure about a 6-6 Auburn team here.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis

BONUS HALF unit play -  #253 Louisville -4.5 (Texas AM starting a JUCO QB because their top 2 QB’s transferred out!) 

North Carolina -3 to 3.5

Not only did Baylor struggle or get beat by every good team they played this season, their injury list is such that I doubt they can muster the type of offense they are known for.  North Carolina was a game away from winning the ACC but ran into a buzz saw in Clemson in the title game but have the weapons on both sides of the ball to put away Baylor here.  Baylor starts a 3rd string QB against a team of this caliber and DC Gene Chizik will be able to dismantle Baylor and QB Williams despite a poor outing stat wise against Clemson will have a huge day here.  Baylor's best RB and WR have both been ruled out and with a 3rd string QB without those stars, no other way to look.

Play 2 Units on North Carolina   

Eastern Kentucky -5

Manhattan scores 66 and allows 77 points, playing a team who is 7-0 at home and scores 83 ppg.  Loose line here, it should be at least 8.5 to 9 points on my power scale.  On defense EKU grabs 10 more boards per game than the Jaspers which equates into easy points. Manhattan 0-4 ATS on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Eastern Kentucky 

Cincy +4
All the money on Denver here, I am taking the points over the fall numer of 3 herte with a team who is just as good as Denver folks.  9 degrees at kickoff for this one and I expect Cincy to be able to put up some points and make this close.  Both teams playing for a ton on the line here including Cincy getting a first round bye in playoffs.,  The last 2 weeks Denver has failed to score a TD in the second half and while McCarron is the QB for Denver, he has performed well and has plenty of weapons.  Denver just 3-4 last 7 games and they had 12 penalties for 127 yards last week where they got blew out in the second half 21-0 against the Steelers.
Play 1 Unit on Cincy
Same Game Tease - FULL UNIT - Tease Cincy to +10 and the Total TEASE UP to 46 and take the Under. 

Central Michigan +4.5
Minnesota is a 5-7 team with little offense to counter the Chippewa's passing game despite having a good pass defense.  Minny lost to every good team they played this year and this game is in their home state, in the Lions stadium under the dome and they have the best QB in this game in Cooper Rush who threw for over 3700 yards this year.
Play 1 Unit on Cent. Michigan 

NY Giants +7

Moved through 6 to 7 on the line.  NY has the better QB and this line a over reaction to Odell Beckam being out in this game.  Minny does not have the weapons to expose a weak NY Giant secondary and Petersen not 100% for this game either.  NY has rallied in their last 2 games and almost beat the Panthers last week, as Tom Couglin coached teams never throw it in folks.  NY in a must win with Skins winning last night, Minny over rated.

Play 1 Unit on the G Men - NY Giants 

Knicks +7.5

NY playing with 3 time revenge and Melo back in the lineup tonight.  The Celtics in their last 5 games have allowed 101 ppg against them and the Knicks are averaging 99 on offense, many of them without Melo.  I like the Knicks to make a serious run here and cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on NY 

Green Bay +4.5
Good number to grab Aaron Rodgers and a determined Packers bunch trying to win a division against a team who is already a division champ and trying to stay healthy.  It is also noted Carson Palmer has a bad finger issue and may not play the entire game.  Green Bay needs it, Zona does not and Green Bays running attack back in sync and they provide a much stiffer challenge than the hapless Eagles. 
Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit.  Tease Green Bay to +10 and Tease the NY Jets to +9.5

KC / Cleveland UNDER 43
KC's final scores are deceptive.  TD's by defense in back to back games and Cleveland is 30th in the NFL in scoring and facing KC defense on the road after facing Seattle's last week on the road.  KC will run the ball here a lot with Ware back in the lineup and I do not see Cleveland having more than 10-13 points here.
Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

Dallas +6
What is Buffalo doing laying 6 to anyone.  QB Moore from Boise St is a BETTER Option than Matt Cassel, and Dallas has the running game going.  Buffalo dejected after getting eliminated from her playoffs last week and are in a slide here, Dallas has the better talent overall and this is a huge number.  Word is also there is much locker dissention on the Bills side.
Play 1 Unit on Dallas

Nebraska +6.5  (Wait for this to go to 7 or more – at least wait till Saturday to bet it)

There will be no love for 5-7 Nebraska here in Vegas or offshore, all UCLA money and the line will rise.  The Huskers the only team in the nation to beat Michigan State, they lost 4 games by a total of 6 points and all 4 of them in the last play of the game.  UCLA deflated to be here and although in California, Huskers travel well and have something to prove.  Most 4th year and 5th years seniors from NU remember well losing 2 in a row to UCLA in 2012 and 2013, and vow redemption and Nebraska will not lay down in this one and remember their last game was a loss to mighty Iowa by 8 and they gave them the ball 5 times!  Huskers cover and could win outright.

Play 1 Unit on Nebraska 

Virginia Tech / Tulsa UNDER 61.5

Tulsa steps up in class and I expect Bud Foster to send Beamer out with a win in this game and there is a big number on the side play because oddsmakers as well as myself think Tulsa will struggle in this game on offense. Plain and simple neither team is going to light it up. 

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER  

Tulsa +13.5 to 14

VT cannot put anyone away by 2 TDs in my opinion and I really think this game will be lower scoring which brings points into the fray here bug time.  VT is very hit and miss on offense and do not possess an explosive offense and while the Hokies will want to send coaching legend Frank Beamer out with a win, it will not come easy.  Hurricanes and the points.  QB Evans for Tulsa best QB in the game and the best offense as well which should keep them in this and this is much closer to Tulsa than VT so I expect a good fan base for them as well.

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa

Indiana -2

Nate Sudfeld led the Big 10 in passing, TD’s and passing efficiency , and RB Pig Howard is the best player on the field, both for the Hoosiers.  Remember Indiana played BOTH Michigan and Ohio St and lost to both by only a TD each and they have the players and coaching to put up 45 points in this game, as they are under the radar.  Duke lost to ANYONE who was good all year and their QB Sirk is overrated.  Love Indiana here – Sleeper pick of the season in my opinion.  Duke is terrible in bowl games and Indiana jacked up to be here big time.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Miami / Washington St OVER 61.5 to 62

2 Stud QB’s in this game, and another scenario where defense is not emphasized.  Mike Leech was passed over the Miami job when it was open and Al Golden got the job, and he was living in Florida and never even got an interview and he will want to drop the hammer on the Hurricanes and he can with all world QB Falk.  This one will get exciting in the second half…I have this total at 72. 10 point overlay .

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

#574 Washington State +13 vs Oklahoma

The Sooners have been my favorite team all season long but this another case where a team’s value is getting a little inflated and the spot heavily favors Washington State.

Oklahoma does not make too many trips to the West Coast, never mind to the islands. Oklahoma would not be the first team to turn a Christmas trip to Hawaii into a vacation and not play up top full speed.

Washington State has been a pleasant surprise this season jumping out to a 7-2 record behind 78.3 points per game and over 15 assists per game. The Cougars did lose a tough game earlier in the season to Gonzaga by nine points but have played tough winning two in a row and three of their last four.

Oklahoma is clearly the better team but Washington State has made plenty of trips to the island over the years and already being on the West Coast should make adjusting to the time zone difference easier for the Cougars. Look for them to hang around in this one against an Oklahoma team that may struggle with motivation and time zone adjustments on this holiday trip to Hawaii and keep this one well within the generous 15 ½ point head start.

Play 1 Unit on Washington State

Temple -2.5

All over the Owls here.  Their defense allowing 12 ppg away from home this year will be the difference.  Toledo started out just like Temple this year, like a house of fire but stumbled down the stretch however Temple retained their head coach and Toledo’s head coach bolted for the Iowa St job and there is more stability at Temple under a very good head coach, a better defense and a better class of player for the owls who lost the ACC Championship game to Houston but held the Cougs to 24 points which is no easy feat, the Owl defense the KEY in this game bar none.

Play 1 Unit on Temple

#537 Iowa State +5 at Cincinnati

– Iowa State, as expected has been one of the strongest teams in the nation thus far. Their only loss on the season is a two-point loss at a Northern Iowa squad that also beat North Carolina at home.

The Cyclones have one of the best inside-outside combinations in the nation with Georges Niang,  Jameel McKay, and PG Monte Morris, who leads the BIG 12 in assists dishing out 7.7 per game.

Cincinnati is 10-2 on the season but has struggled some lately in the rare cases where they step up in class. They lost by double digits to Xavier and lost to Butler. They lack any big wins with their best win of the season coming against VCU by six.

Iowa State just has too many ways to win and Cincinnati is laying too many points in this spot. Look for this one to be close throughout but at the end of the day Iowa State will use their superior guard play to a road victory here.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

#544 Wake Forest +7.5 vs Xavier

While no one will question that Xavier may be the biggest surprise team in the nation this year, Wake Forest is also right up there on that list. The Demon Deacons are 8-2 with wins over Indiana and UCLA already this season.

Danny Manning has done a great job rebuilding this once proud Wake Forest program from the cellar dweller they have become the last decade. Wake Forest is averaging 79.7 points and 41 rebounds per game this season.

Xavier has been one of the hottest teams in the country thus far but like most hot teams they are starting to get overinflated numbers and values. This line should be a lot closer to Xavier -1 and thus we are getting a great deal of value at home with the Demon Deacons. In what should be a very close game we will go ahead and take the points with the motivated home team.

Play 1 Unit on Wake Forest

New Orleans -2.5

Nothing to play for here, but Drew Brees at home and an inept Lions offense is a mis match gents, plain and simple.  The Lions and the Saints defenses are BOTH DEPLORABLE and both QB’s should find success through the air and the running game should work for both, however the Lions have averaged a paltry 17 ppg on offense on the road this season and New Orleans scores 31 ppg at home this season and remember 2 weeks ago lit up Carolina’s vaunted defense like a Christmas Tree in a game they could have won.  Brees is better than Stafford and the overall offense of the Saints is better the Lions, they are at home which is worth 3 points and Brees has been exception on NFL over the years racking up 47—yards on MNF and remember the Lions are on back to back roadies and lost to the lowly Rams last week on the road in a dome, and the Saints coaching staff is vastly better than the Lions as well.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans 

OVER 196 – Knicks and Magic

These 2 scored 191 back in November and neither shot better than 36% from the floor.  Both teams are hot and scoring well and evenly matched, and I expect some scoring in this one.  My scoring model database says 204 and that is an 8 point overlay worth the stretch for a double unit play.

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

South Florida +2.5

Love the Bulls here.  Willie Taggert the Bulls head coach had his jersey retired AS A HILLTOOPER and was a coach there as well, and faces his old program with a great dual threat QB in Quinton Flowers who is a one man wrecking crew.  Western Kentucky a good program but the strength of schedule is going to show up in this one, and as good as Western Kentucky looked beating Southern Miss in their championship game, this game is in Miami so that is a home field for South Florida , and the Bulls came on strong at seasons end and they beat numerous Bowl teams including Cincy, Temple and U Conn.  The Bulls also played well against Navy and Memphis and could have won both games.  It boils down to experience, home field, the better coach and the better QB and that all favors South Florida.

Play 1 Unit on South Florida.

Steelers -6.5

Yes I am laying it here gents, Pitts offense has eclipsed 30 ppg their last 5 games and Denver secondary is all banged up, and Ben Ben is on fire, and who will cover Antonio Brown.  The Steelers are peaking and need this win big time and in a surprise, I think this might be one of the bigger blowouts of the day.  Denver ran the ball for 35 yards last week on 21 carries and have had serious issues scoring TDs. They have had 1 in the last 2 weeks.  Back to back roadies for Denver as well.  They will be calling for Peyton Manning after this one, and he did practice this week. Might make a great tease play as well. 

Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

Green Bay -3

We get a soft line here, and NO this is not a square bet.  The Raiders allow a ton of yards after the catch and Green Bay is very good at getting added yards after the catch, and also we have an Eddie Lacey sighting, as he came out like a beast last week in a romp over Dallas.   Bear in mind although the line is at -3 because the Raiders upset Denver last week, Denvers backup QB went 35 out of 51, Denver justy could not covert yards into scores, and that will not be the case for Green Bay.  Aaron Rodgers returns to the Bay area where he is fromn and will want to impress, Green Bay vastly better in all areas and played a better brand of defense last week.  Oakland is better than previous editions under Del Rio, but they are not good enough to beat two winning teams in back to back fashion.  Carr also has been throwing picks lately.  Oddsmakers left a soft line here – PERIOD – Green Bay gets good this time of year if you have not noticed in the past few years.

Play 2 Units on Green Bay – TOP PLAY

Bears +6

Yep – Ugly but Minny missing 4 starters on defense and their offense has failed to top 20 points in either of their last 4 games and they are fading.  Good Cutler or Bad Cutler, but I feel after last weeks debacle Cutler will have a good outing against a defense that should allow the Bears 17-21 points here and while Minny will pound the rock with AD and eat some clock, a lower scoring game with big points is a take, and Bears are capable here, and have a 1-2 punch at RB and the best QB and WR on the field. Line moved up from 5.5 to 6 – a key number.

Play 1 Unit on the Bears

BONUS – 1 Unit 2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Kansas City DOWN to -1 and Tease Seattle Down to -9

Georgia State +3

GSU throws the ball as well as anyone in the nation and they take on 5 win San Jose State who stunk it up down the stretch.  Georgia State STUNNED a very good Georgia Southern Team to end the season with a monster win and come in here with a high octane attack through the air and a defense that has improved vastly this season and their QB Arbuckle has over 4100 yards passing and ranked 6th in the NCAA this season.  GSU won all four of their last 4 games by double digits.  Not sold on San Jose who lost to Oregon State by 21 and had some ugly losses.  They do run the ball decent and have a balanced attack but have not had a pass play over 50 yards all year and cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here despite have a good pass defense.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia State

Appalachian State  -7.5

ASU has a HUGE edge on defense, I  mean a HUGE edge and Ohio U, despite being coached by ex-Husker coach Solich, has MAJOR issues on offense and while they get back their QB and RB off injury here, not sold on them against one of the better defenses around.  ASU 10-2 and 7-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and this is their first bowl game ever as a program and they will be fired up to the moon and back, Ohio no doubt has bowl experience behind Solich but I have watched the Mountaineers play twice this season and they are a good team and a BAD matchup for Ohio U, and bear in mind one of their losses was to Clemson.  Better defense, more enthusiasm – I will lay it, doubt the Bobcats can muster 17 points in this game, if that.

Play 1 Unit on Appalachian State  

BYU +2.5

Let’s face it, BYU is being coached by Mendenhall for the last time and a charged up and emotional BYU team is VASTLY more healthy than Utah, without their top playmaker and stud RB Decker, they also are missing their best special team returner and game breaker, as well as  their best WR Covey, and their starting TE and they dropped 2 out of their last 3 games.  BYU had a very rough opening 5 games and competed in every one of them including a season opening win at Nebraska despite losing their top QB for the season in that game.  BYU won 7 out of their last 8 games and the defense is better than you think and they can put it up through the air.  This game is sold out and both teams fans will be well represented.  Too many injuries to skill people on offense for Utah who has no identity with RB Decker out. BYU has a huge emotional edge and how motivated is Utah to be here? 

Play 1 Unit on BYU

Play 1 Unit on Duke.

No writeup however this is in NY Madison Square Garden and Duke has ripped off 5 straight games of 80 or more, beat Utah last season in the tourney and are better by 10 points here minimum even without Jefferson.

#525 South Carolina-2.5 @ Clemson - 1 Unit Play

I am not normally one to play a road favorite in such a big spot for the home team. Yet the advantages here are strong enough to justify. South Carolina is #15 in my new power rankings that came out this week and for good reason.

The Gamecocks have had one of the best starts in college basketball this season, have a long time over achieving coach in Frank Martin and have talent and depth advantages in this heated in state rivalry game.

Martin expanded the recruiting territory for South Carolina and came up with a pair of talented players from Lithuania in Mindaugas Kacinas and Laimonas Chatkevicius. The combo is averaging over 26 points and 10 rebounds per game this season. Chatkevicius is shooting 44% from three point range this season while also blocking 1.5 shots per game as well.

The Gamecocks have beaten eight of nine opponents by double digits with an eight point win at Tulsa the only team to even stay within double figures of the undefeated Gamecocks.

South Carolina is doing it with defense and scoring in the paint. They have attempted just 149 three pointers this season, which in 2015 is not very many as most teams average around 20 attempts per game.. Yet they have made 59 for almost 40% shooting from behind the arc to compliment their strong inside play.

Clemson is 7-3 but has yet to beat any quality opponents and has already lost to Minnesota, Alabama, and UMASS, all three of which are having down years. Much of their offense relies heavily on the three point shot falling as they have taken 222 three pointers in 10 games this season 02 22.2 three point attempts per game.

The Tigers have shot just 36% from behind the arc and that comes against soft competition. South Carolina will be the toughest test of the season for Clemson and unless they get really hot behind the arc they just do not have the talent, depth, athleticism, or coaching to win this one. South Carolina extends their unbeaten streak to 10 this season with an easy road win over in state rival Clemson.

BONUS HALF UNIT - #537 Santa Clara +8 ½ @ Nevada

There is unrest abound in the Nevada program these days. Just two days ago the Wolf pack’s leading returner player from last season, C A.J. West quit the team. West was averaging 10 points, eight rebounds and almost two blocks per game before quitting the team. West averaged a double-double last season averaging 12.6 points and 11 rebounds per game.

This will be Nevada’s first game without West and they are an overrated 7-3 this season having played an extremely soft schedule. They have losses to Hawaii, Cal State Fullerton, and Oregon State and do not have a win over a top 100 team this year as all seven wins came against extremely soft competition.

Santa Clara started out 0-7 this season against some really tough competition including Wisconsin-Milwaukee, UC Irvine, Arizona, and Evansville. Yet after that 0-7 start they have rebounded with four straight wins including a win over ACC team Boston College.

A.J. West has been the best rebounder in the Mountain West for two consecutive seasons and Nevada will have to adjust to not having their best defender, rebounder, and reliable big man in the middle anymore. This will change the way that Nevada is able to defend teams as the guards will no longer have that rim protector behind them when they make mistakes. It is going to take a little time to adjust to the loss of West and the new style of play. Look for this one to be very close throughout and a battle tested Santa Clara team to give Nevada all they want Friday night and easily cover this generous spread.

#544 Texas Tech -1.5 vs South Dakota State

I have made as much money off South Dakota State as any team in the nation thus far this season. They have been as good as I thought and more jumping out to a 9-1 straight up record. Yet like most successful mid major programs they can ill afford to have injuries to star players due to lack of talent and depth.

Unfortunately for South Dakota their senior leader George Marshall hurt his foot in a meaningless win over Division II Wayne State and will be out for a significant amount of time. Marshall was averaging 12.9 points (2nd on team), 2.9 assists (2nd on team), 1.3 steals (1st on team) and 32 minutes (1st on team) per game. Not only was he possible the best player on the team but was the senior floor general for the Jackrabbits as well.

Tubby Smith has finally started to turn things around in Lubbock this season. The Red Raiders return four of five starters from last season.  They also used their international trip this summer heading to Canada where they won all four exhibition games in the tour.

Senior Guard Devaugntah Williams, last season’s leading scorer has become the complete player that Tubby hoped he would be and the results have been a huge boost for Texas Tech. Williams is averaging 16.1points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 90% from the free throw line.

Texas Tech has a lot more depth this season with eight players averaging 15 or more minutes per game and are 6-1 with the only loss coming against a very talented Utah squad on a neutral court.

Look for Williams to have a big game and Texas Tech to have too much depth and firepower for this South Dakota State team playing without their senior leader Marshall.

Texas Tech - 1 Unit 

Bucks -3

The Lakers just lost 2 games by a combined total of 51 points.  I watched both those games and quite frankly LA is one of the worst teams in the NBA outside of Philly and the Bucks ended Golden States streak this weekend and are rolling along nicely.  In their last 5 games LA has given up a league worst 114 ppg on defense, just deplorable and the Lakers have NO depth.    I have an overlay of 6.5 points here and oddsmakers at 2.5, plenty of value in the Favorite here and LA has 1 home win all season.  Unreal, and Kobe is a shell of himself and plays little to no defense.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

NY Giants -1 to 1.5

Short and Sweet here.  The Giants have blown 5 fourth quarter leads this year and despite no running game against a weak rush defense here, and Manning being up and down, I like Odell Beckham against this secondary and Miami is simply the team that cannot get it done, especially at home this year and still working on new offensive schemes under new OC Zac Taylor in only his second week.  Coughlin finds a way to coach them to a win here and I expect Manning and company to have just a few more points than Miami.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants 

NYG at Miami Over 47

The weather will be perfect, neither team has a pass defense and neither team can run the ball very well. This game will be elongated by the fact they will both be throwing the ball against the other teams secondary. The Giants will undoubtedly try to run the ball against the Dolphins poor run defense but, the Giants are the seventh best passing team in the league and they will no doubt abandon the run quickly and rely on Manning and the gifted WR core to get a victory. Miami should have success against the leagues worst pass D. Even if Stills doesn't play Jones and Parker should get plenty of opportunities. I don't have a clue who might win this mutt of a game but we should see some offense.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

New England -3 to 3.5

Generous gift by Oddsmakers as Houston was dismantled last week the entire game by an average Bills team and no doubt the Texans will not be able to run the ball here and we have Tom Brady and company, although short handed off a loss and getting a cheaper number here because of it.  Pats in full rebound mode and Houston coach O’Brien faces his mentor, and Bill will want a piece of his ass off a loss.  Pats still working on first round bye and home field, plenty to play for here gents at a cheap number.  QB Brady versus QB Hoyer?  No contest boys, as the Pats will be dialed in.  Betting square and taking the cash.

Play 1 Unit on New England

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit.  Tease Pittsburgh to +9 and Tease Kansas City to -4

UNDER 43 Dallas / Green Bay

Well Green Bay in the frozen tundra against a warm weather team.  That said as you saw Monday Dallas has NO QB play at all, and beat a very bad team, with little offense.  Also Green Bay has no WR’s to speak of and I doubt neither team gets near 20 points in this game, and weather looks ominous on Sunday in Green Bay.  Lacey is a no show at RB for the Packers, Dallas struggling to make many big plays down the field with Cassel.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Buffalo -1 

Real simple math here.  Buffalo ranks 4th in the running the ball in the NFL and Philly ranks 27th against the rush, and with a secondary for the Eagles that cannot cover good WR’s, Sammy Watkins will have a huge day, and QB Taylor a better QB than Bradford.  Eagles off an upset road win over the Pats with Special teams and defensive TD’s they wont get today.  Philly dysfunctional on many levels, and oh – RB McCoy returns back to Philly to make a statement. 

Play 1 Unit on the Bills

Carolina -8.5

I smell a 31-10 type ballgame here and that is IF Atlanta can get to 10 points.  Atlanta is in free fall, Matt Ice Ryan throwing picks like crazy, the defense is on the field all day long for the Dirty Birds and they are one of the worst teams over the last 6 weeks in the NFL, and on the other side we have arguably one of the best teams in the NFL at home off a wakeup call scare, who is playing for a first round bye and home filed in the post season here today with plenty of motivation.  The Falcons offense is deplorable right now, terrible play calling, against this defense at home?  Square bet laying a big number?  So Be it.  Forget about it, monster blowout.  The Panthers in December over the last 38 games in division play have covered 27 out of 38 spreads.

Play 2 Units on Carolina  - TOP PLAY