Tulsa -17 to 17.5

Look SMU has no QB, and really are simply just giving the ball away too much, and Tulsa will take advantage of that with a high octane offense that SMU cannot trade punches with on the scoreboard. The Golden Hurricanes can do as much damage as Hurricane Matthew is on the east coast here.  They scored 45 or more in each game this season outside of Ohio State, and QB Evans for Tulsa should cherry pick a very suspect SMU secondary all night.  With QB Ben Hicks for SMU posting 51% in completions and 9 picks so far, doubt you can count on him to play from behind with any effectiveness.

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa  

#935 - Boston -140    *8:05 EST 

Taking Porcello over Bauer here tonight.  Bauer for Cleveland is a 4th rotation pitcher at best, he managed over a 7 ERA in his last 5 starts and facing the Red Sox bats with that number is doom.  Porcello is a rock star and Cy Young candidate and will hold the Tribes bats at bay, and he will have more run support.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

#931 - Baltimore +130  *8:05 EST 

Going with the O’s and Tillman here to win one on the road at Toronto.  Relief pitching is going to be key and the O’s have it better than the Jays in this category, bottom line and pitching wins out in the post season.  Stick in some southpaws late in the game and Jays have not been hitting them well at all, they are .156 in their last 5 games against lefties, think Showalter knows this?  The O’s took 2 out of three in here last week and are not intimidated on the road here tonight.  Going against the public here gents.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore 

My MLB Post Season package is $135 - DIRT CHEAP INVESTMENT- 21-7 the past 2 years guys - GET PAID  

NY Giants +4 
Look the Vikings cannot sustain the current pace, coming off a huge upset win, and a team where the defense has scored more TD's than the offense, not to mention the human turnover machine Sam Bradford has yet to throw a pick.  Chances are, and I am a gambling man that he will, and the Giants will cover this number.  Manning and company, Beckham and Cruze and a good running game will in fact keep pace despite the awesome defense that Minny has employed.  Your starting RB and QB out for the season and still undefeated SU and ATS.  I get that momentum however this is a bad number to lay against a capable team still stinging after giving a game away last week due to mistakes and turnovers and NY has the best QB playing in this game.  Good matchup with McAdoo (offense) and Zimmer (defense) at head coaches.  Sooner or later the monster cover streak Minny is on will go the pother way, it always does guys.  
Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants 
BONUS TEASER (same game 6 pointer - points added) - Tease NY to +10 and tease the Total up to 49 and take the UNDER 

#275 /276 - Pitt / KC Under 47
Pitt managed 3 points last week on offense, KC managed 10 points on offense- their defense scored the rest.  The strength of KC's game is defense and their offense is uneventful and not vertical, dink and dunk which kills clock.  Also KC has the best red zone defense in the NFL.  Expect Andy Reid to slow it down, pound the rock, short passes and keep Big Ben and company off the field as much as possible.  
Play 1 Unit on the Under 



TWO TEAM 6 POINT TEASER - 1 Unit (points added) Tease the Saints up to +10 - Tease the Cardinals DOWN to -1.5

#261 - Detroit -3
The fact this number is under the fall numer of 3 or at least getting it on 3 is crucial.  The Bears are the only team in the NFL that is 0-3 ATS, and for a reason.  An injury riddled secondary, and a QB situation that is dire, not to mention the top 2 RB's on the roster are out for this game and Cutler is 50/50 to play, and I hope he does, he is a human turnover machine against good defensive fronts (So is Hoyer), and Detroit has one.  The Lions QB Staffords is 3rd in passing in the NFL.  Better QB, better team overall, and healthier.
Play 1 Unit on Detroit

#259 - Carolina -3
Here it is- Carolina struggled against good defenses, Atlanta does not have one.  This is where Carolina shines this week, and their offense, running game and Newton will all be on high alert against a defense that cannot stop the run, off a short week after MNF, and Carolina avenging their only loss last year in here as well.  Matt Ryan struggles against good defenses, and flourish's against bad ones ;like he did Monday and I was all over him.  Not today, Panthers defense shuts down Atlanta and Carolina off a loss here, and under pressure, must win game for Carolina, is my top play.  
Play 2 Units on Carolina - TOP PLAY

#264 - Houston -4.5
Tennessee could not even muster more than 10 points at home against Oakland's porous defense last week, and despite JJ Watt's departure, Houston is a tough team, beat a good KC team in here 2 weeks ago and they are clicking right now.  They also have had 10 days to prepare for this game off an ass kicking on Thursday Night Football against the Pats.  Bill O'Brien will have them ready for this one and doubt Tennessee has more than 10 points.
Play 1 Unit on Houston

#199 - Michigan State -6.5  *8 EST

Wisconsin throttled DiAntiono’s bunch last week.  I would hate to be a Hoosier this Saturday night, even at home.  MSU is no joke and in this series 6 out of the last 7 games MSU covered the number and 5 of those covers are when MSU was off a loss ironically.  Expect Micgihan St defense to atone for last weeks debacle and a frosh QB beating them up.  Wake beat Indiana last week because Indiana turnover it over 5 times through the air and penalties galore, and before that they played a couple of patsies.  MSU by 14 here.  Going with a good coach here off a bad loss to get back in the win column with some focus, depsite Indiana’s big offensive numbers.

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State

#203 - Mizzou +13   *730 EST

Yeah LSU is for real at home, or are they?  Les Miles and OC Cam Cameron fired, team in disarray, Mizzou QB Lock the best QB in the game (14 TD passes – 3 picks and 1500+ yds) and frankly the Mizzou defense will keep an injured and not 100% Fournette at bay.  Mizzou allowing just 3.3 ypc and that includes playing Georgia, who won on a miracle against Mizzou 2 weeks ago.  Mizzou offense gaining confidence, had 79 points last week against nobody however they are starting to gel under new head coach Odom.  LSU overrated in the public eye, and a new coach will not change the fact in 1 week their offense sucks and should not be laying 2 TD’s to a capable team who has some pieces.

Play 1 Unit on Missouri

Tennessee -3.5

I doubt Georgia can muster a game here off an ass kicking and Tennessee full of confidence after the Florida win and they are battle tested already.  The Vols have the better QB and offense wand Georgia without Chubb at RB or very limited at best cannot keep pace with Tennessee here. 

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

UL Monroe +33

Scheduling spot situation for Auburn.  UL Monroe’s QB Garrett Smith the best QB in this game and they covered a big number in a big loss to Oklahoma earlier this season.  That said Auburn off a controversial win against LSU that costs Les Miles his job since he didn’t manage the clock again, but Auburn beat up physically after that game and they have Mississippi State on deck.  UL Monroe has covered every spread dating back to Late November of 2015.  Auburn has exceeded 33 points total on offense only 2 times dating back to October of last year!  Auburn wins with ease but 33 too many.  Sandwich spot for Tigers.

Play 1 Unit on UL Monroe

#149- Ohio U -2 to 2.5  *2:30 EST

Gents I have this line at 6.5 on my power ratings and the line has dropped off of 3.5 - WOW.  Frank Solich is a good head coach, hell Nebraska should have never fired him after a 9-3 year in 2001, but his teams get better each week of the season and he has another stud QB in Windham that can run and throw (920 yards passing and  7 TD’s only 1 pick)  who is careful with the ball and a dual threat big time, as he leads the team in rushing.  The Bobcats offense is better than last year’s edition and Miami of Ohio is winless with no defense, and Solich and his team have beaten Miami of Ohio 9 out of the last 10 times.  Ohio off a win won last Week) is a solid 8-1 ATS off a win, and Solich should open up a can of whoop ass against here, as he beat them last year 34-3 and Miami of Ohio hasn’t gotten much better.  Cheap number

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U 

Cincy -7.5

Why is this line so high after Denver waxed Cincy in their own house Sunday?  Because oddsmakers are baiting you to take the points here.  I am not falling for this trap line even with a hook and on a fall number, they are fully expecting Cincy to win big here.  Miami is poorly coached, the Browns outplayed and dominated them in the 4th quarter last week, the close number against New England a few weeks ago was a hoax, as most of their points came in garbage time after the Pats put them away.Also we have all seen Seattles offensive woes this season so a close one there was not impressive, they gave away the game.  

Cincy at home on short week is at a huge advantage and I am not sold on Miami despite their defense and Dalton's OL in pass protection leaves a lot to be desired.  Cincy got their run game going last week, and play action passing off that should bear fruit for the Bengals.  Bear in mind Miami almost got beat by the Browns folks and while you cannot put stalk into what you last saw all the time and expect the same in the NFL, Miami has yet to put it together and Cincy has the most talented and deep roster in the AFC despite their coaching at times and should win by 10+ here.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy - lay it. 

#5 - Boston (-1.5 runs) -115    *7:05 EST

Boston is so hot it almost burns you to look at the stats.  Their offense is on fire and they go for 12 in a row and are on the verge of winning the division so every game counts.  Price takes the hill here for the Red Sox and he has not lost since August , and I am going with the hit hand and hot team here to win by 3 to 4 runs against the Yankees and Cessa who gave up 3 runs on  hits in 5 innings last time he played Boston.

Play 1 Unit on Boston on the RUNLINE – Listed pitchers only as always 

Atlanta +3
A Westgate Supercontest pick here, I am on the Dirty Birds, as I was last week against Oakland - and Oakland beat New orleans in Week 1 in here.  New Orleans in the Dome is not feared anymore and nor they should be at 4-10 ATS their last 14 at home.  They managed 1 TD last week against a below average Giants defense and their defense in general is flat out bad.  Matt Ryan does love to throw picks, which always is a risk but all the weapons on his side of the ball is scary at the WR position and I rate Atlanta's defense slightly better than New Orleans.  Atlanta playing with Double revenge as New Orleans swept them last year including being a 5 point dog at Atlanta,and despite the chants that the Saints cannot go 0-3 with Brees and Sean Peyton pulling the strings and gunslinging all over the place, with no defense and a bad team in my opinion, they do start 0-3.  
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta
2 Team Same Game 6 Point teaser - tease Atlanta to +9 and tease the Total up to 59.5 and take the UNDER. 

#485 /486 - Chargers / Colts Over 51
Another square bet but how else do you look at this game?  Not saying the Bolts defense is good here by any stretch, because they held down Jax last week, the same defense lets Kansas City Explode from 21 down and score 27 unanswered in that game (KC does not have an explosive offense), and quite frankly the Colts have no defense, with little pash rush and Rivers given time will kill you in zone coverage, he has been doing it to teams forever in the NFL.  Two heavyweight gunslinging QB's going at it here with two weak defenses, in what should be a high flying shootout in the dome.
Play 1 Unit on the Over. 
2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease Oakland up to +7.5, and tease Miami down to -3.5 - 1 Unit Play 

#481 - Pittsburgh -3.5
Yep - Drinking the Kool Aid and laying the hook on a huge Public side and betting square, but Philly beating up a bad Browns team and a bad Bears team impresses me little.  I will not bet against Big Ben versus a rookie QB that has yet to see a team as physical as the Steelers, and Tomlin the better coach in this game as well. The defense for the Eagles has been decent this year (bear in mind they faced RG III and a bad Jay Cutler)  which was unexpected however they have yet to face a QB of this caliber and RB Williams is leading the NFL in rushing. All the weapons and experience at QB on the Steelers side here. Whats not to like at under 4 points for the Steelers?  Trust me, the secondary of the Bears that Wentz saw last week was a like a JUCO team compared the Steelers, it will not come easy this week.
Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

#471 - Washington +3.5
Yes an ugly call here that might raise your eyebrows, with lack of chemistry on offense but not sold completely on the Giants defense and they have been winning close games all season.  This is a must win for the Skins or they go 3 games down to NY in the NFC East, and they were the division champs last season.  I say Norman can shut down 1 outlet for Manning at WR whether it be Cruze or Beckham, and the Skins should be able to put some points up and not have red zone issues here near as poorly as the first 2 games.  Over the fall number of 3 is crucial here.  Expect and all out effort from Washington today as they have circled the wagons this week for this game.
Play 1 Unit on Washington

Oklahoma St +9

Baylor has talent.  Baylor also is not coached by Art Briles.  Okie St should be undefeated and they have all the firepower in the word on offense has they return 19 starts to this team, 10 of them on offense.  Must win for Cowboys here off a 45 point output against a good Pitt defense last week.  Baylor was tied 6-6 at halftime against SMU a few weeks back and this is Baylor’s first real test.  Last 4 games Baylor . Okie State combined score 152-146 combined score and Baylor laying over a TD here in what should be last guy with the ball wins?  I will take the points with a veteran team who will be ready and are battle tested much more than Baylor.  Baylor has yet to cover a spread this season!  Wow.  Okie State also avenging a 10 point home loss to Baylor last year.

Play 1 Unit on Okie State

#315 - Central Florida -6.5 * 7 EST 

UCF Head coach Scott Frost used a 2nd string QB last week to take Maryland into overtime and they almost pulled off the upset SU as a 9-point pup.  Those same Maryland Terps POUNDED Florida International the week before 41-14 and I like the way the UCF is playing, and back up QB Milton went for 269 yards and 2 TDs last week.  FIU scoring 13 ppg on offense and rank 124th in offense nationally and Milton will get the start at QB again this week for the Knights.  FIU has not covered a spread dating back to last year, in their last 7 games.  UCF puts up 21 here they cover – no sweat.  Scott Frost was Oregon’s OC the last couple of years and knows how to put points up and will not let off the throttle here as UCF avenging a home loss by 1 point last year to FIU

Play 1 Unit on Central Florida

Army – 13.5

Sold on Army, playing Buffalo who got beat as a 3 TD fav in week 1 by an FCS school and the red hot Knights roll into town here fresh off a massive blowout win over UTEP last week as a 4 Point fav (66-14) and I had them last week.  The triple option of Army should destroy Buffalo.  Buffalo’s run defense ranked 114th in the NCAA!  Total Mis-Match guys. 

Play 1 Unit on Army (again)

Michigan –18.5

Penn State in huge trouble here.  Minus 5 defensive starters and catching Jim Harbuagh in a bad mood off a win over Colorado where Michigan did not show up ready to play.  Penn State 2013 ATS on the road their last 15.  I watched Penn State attempt to run against Pitt 2 weeks ago to the tune of under 3 yards per carry, and Michigan’s D vastly better than Pitt who gave up 45 last week!   This is going to be a blowout.  Michigan by 25+

1 unit

#307 - Wyoming -3.5   *7:30 EST

I have had the good fortune of seeing Wyoming play in person this year in Lincoln NE.  The final score in that game is deceptive because with 11 minutes left in the game, Wyoming was down 24-17 and driving.  They pissed down their leg with 3 turnovers and faltered due to Nebraska's sheer size qand depth and speed, they ran out of gas.  QB Allen is a good QB and Craig Bohl is a good coach, he is the guy who put North Dakota State on the map gents.  Eastern Michigan does not have the speed or depth of a Nebraska and Wyoming should roll here by 14.  I watched closely the EMU game against Missouri, and they made Mizzou's offense look like Louisville. A must win for Wyoming with Mountain West conference play starting next week.  

Play 1 Unit on Wyoming.

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Clemson / GT UNDER 58 to 58.5

Both teams have good defenses and Clemson stuffs the run, this is not news.  I have yet to see an explosion on Clemson’s offense against a good team since they played Bama for the title last year and beating up a nobody last week and racking up points last week does little to convince me they can put up a huge number tonight against a defense allowing just 305 yards per game.  The triple option will test Clemson’s defense and eat clock.  Like this to go under the number in a hard fought game. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#919 / 920 - Royals / Indians OVER 9   *7:10 EST

Volquez and Tomlin on the hill tonight.  Volquez for KC got lit up for 9 runs his last outing, 8 earned and is in a 4 game slide.  There will be hits and runs galore tonight gents.    KC scored 18 runs their last 3 games and the Tribe have scored 17 runs in their last 3 games.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Bears -3 

Do you think John Fox is going to let a rookie QB come in and beat his Bears tonight in their home opener?  His key weapon at Tight End is out tonight – which is a big deal guys!  While the Bears are not all that, beating up on Cleveland last week does not impress me on the Eagles side of things either.  Chicago has had added time to let the second half debacle against a very good Houston team last week set in, and I expect Cutler and company to find success against a young Eagle’s defense and put up enough points to cover the number at home here.  It is crucial that Chicago does not go down 0-2 in their division with all other teams having at least 1 win.  64% of public supporting the Eagles, I like the home team who people think stink after last weeks debacle in Houston.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

#965  Boston – 125   *7:05 EST 

The Red Sox swept the Yankees over the weekend and are red hot and we get a red hot Rick Porcello on the hill as a strong right hander with just a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts and the O’s are struggling against right handers, just hitting.217 as a team against right handers their last 5 games.  Bundy for the O’s gets the start and his WHIP in his last 3 starts in a whopping 1.70 and his ERA near 5, not good against the offensively aggressive Red Sox.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

Green Bay -2.5

Looks like a take on Sunday night for a home dog – I think not and I will tell you why in 2 words – SAM BRADFORD.  A total turnover machine who does not have the whole playbook at his disposal against one of the best teams in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers laying less than a FG in this game with his full complement of WR’s and Lacey thinner and meaner at RB?  I know a new stadium opening and prime time TV and ect, Minny not all that and beat a mediocre team last week and had to come from behind to do it.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay

Indy +6.5

Yeah they lost to the Lions at home in a thriller, but they managed a ton of points against a good Lions defense.  Andrew Luck the best QB in this game, and although they won’t run it A TON AGAINST THIS FRONT FOUR, NOT SOLD ON Denver even with added time, to get into a shootout with Indy and cover a big number with a damn near rookie QB and a line that looks to0 good to be true.  Indy hangs around, never gives up and QB Luck a big time gamer.  This is a sharp side in Vegas guys, against the public.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

Atlanta +4.5 to 5

Oakland ready for primetime laying points?  This will be a flat out shootout and while Oakland will put up points, have no illusions, Atlanta will too.  Matt Ryan has 3 weapons to throw to, a run game and I like their chances here with Oakland off a huge emotional win on the road last week, and remember New Orleans plays no defense what so ever. 3-point game either way.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

Saints/ Giants OVER 53.5

Who stops who?  Both QB’s will pitch and play catch all day up and down the field, and Manning should have a big day as well as Brees.  Like the offensive stars here.  NY has issues with a rookie QB and RB last week, Saints veteran offense will put up a ton here and Manning and boys will counter.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Cincy to +9.5 and Tease Jax to +9 – 1 Unit (points added)  

Georgia -7 (this line will go up to 8 or higher by Saturday)

Look this is a perfect scenario - Just Like Tennessee is Week 2 laying just 11 to a bad VT team. The Vols struggled the week before in OT against lowly Application State and that debacle kept the line down.  Well Georgia almost lost at home to Nichols St while Mizzou was beating up a nobody in Eastern Michigan, and while watching that game I told my buddy that we were gonna get under 10 points with Georgia, and trust me, Mizzou cannot stop the Bulldog running game (even though the Georgia QB is not all that good it wont matter Chub will go ballistic.  Anyone good on defense, or even average will shut down Mizzou.  Their QB Lock looked like an ass clown against West Virginia and they could not stop the Mountaineers in that game and their vaunted defense gave up 494 yards in that game and gave up 428 yards to Eastern Michigan although they blew them out. West Virginia DOMINATED Mizzou (I had them in that game -10), and Georgia is better than WV in my opinion, even on the road at Mizzou whose home field might be worth a point and Mizzou fans throw it in if they are getting beat as well, not a riotous environment at all.  A new head coach and staff at Mizzou, no running game, an average to below average QB and no offensive line what so ever for Mizzou will result in a 12+ point Georgia win, who now will have their head clearly out of their rear end after last weeks scare.

2 Units on Georgia  

#185 - Michigan State +7.5 to 8  *7:30 EST

Remember you are betting into numbers and not games, and this one is on and or over a fall number.  The Irish always have a premium number attached to them as a public darling, but Michigan State has had an extra week to prepare and when ND played a good team in Texas , they had numerous weakness’s exposed.  Dantonio is a good head coach for MSU, especially in big games, Spary has a solid 1-2 punch at RB and an added week for QB O’Conner to get ready, and a Michigan State defense that I feel is better than ND catching a full TD or more, I will gladly take the points here,  Let’s see QB Kizer really get tested here in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Michigan State

#121 - Maryland -9   *7 est 

Scott Frost got a wakeup call last week as to why George O’Leary did not win a game at UCF last season, the lack of talent going up against BCS schools is significant for Central Florida (0-5 ATS and SU their last 5 against BCS schools), who just got hammered at Michigan last week, and while the Terps are not Michigan, they will attack through the air and cherry pick the Knights bad secondary for points all day.  Rarely will you see the Terps laying a TD+ on the road at anytime in recent memory, with UCF’s QB questionable for this weeks game after injury last week with a hamstring, it lessens the chances of UCF’s offense to trade any punches on the scoreboard this week, and off a road trip to Michigan, they are beat up this week.  Maryland’s Harrison and Edmunds at RB are a nice 1-2 punch, Terps pull away in the second half here.

Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

#141- Army -3.5   *7 EST

Yes, all the armed forces teams are 6-0, but Army taking on a weak UTEP team who I have no faith in here especially with QB Greenlee out.  Cadets ground attack and triple option too much for weak UTEP stop unit to contend with for 4 quarters, especially with a 2nd string QB expected to take the reins.  Army giving up 13 ppg against Rice and Temple, UTEP giving up 31 ppg! 

Play 1 Unit on Army

#151 - San Diego State -10.5 to 11   *3:330 EST

No. Illinois QB Hare is out, and No Illinois not the MAC Powerhouse of old and their defense is deplorable SDSU is an absolute beast, cover machine and on a roll, and they just beat a good Cal team last week.  I love the Aztecs here by 20 in a blowout.  SDSU too big up front on the DL for No Illinois to do anything on offense with backup Graham running the offense.  This is an under the radar team, and yes coming off a big win with travel, but their size is too much for Huskies.  SDSU well coached team.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State 

#916- Baltimore -105  *7:05 EST 

Jimenez at home and though he has stunk it up this season, his form is coming around and in his last 3 games he has fared well with just over a 3 ERA and his WHIP is an excellent 0.75.  Rarely do you get a team in the playoff hunt at this number against a bottom feeder in the Rays. Archer for the Rays has been lit up by the O’s all year.  I am all over this line, O’s with a much needed win in the playoff race get one at home and a cheap number to boot.

Play 1 Unit on the O’s 

Houston -7.5

Two things here.  I won money with Cincy over Purdue last week as a premium play, and I won money for you with Houston over Oklahoma in week 1.  The reason Cincy beat a beat up Purdue last week in a lopsided score was Purdue, who is deplorable, had 3 defensive starters out, and Purdue’s QB threw 5 picks in that game.  I cannot count on Tubberville at anytime coaching in a big game.  Greg Ward is a flat out 1 man wrecking crew at QB for Houston, who DOMINATED Oklahoma who is twice the team that Cincy is, and this Houston defense is NO Joke, they shit hammered OU into submission.  Ward is rested as he sat out last week’s game against Lamar and Houston still won 42-0 in a shutout, his shoulder is fine for this game.  Cincy gave up 5-4 yards to Purdue – enough said.  This is one of the few hurdles left for Houston this year in order to go undefeated, they will be ready.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#956 - Reds -130  *7:10 EST

The Brewers have managed just 14 road wins out of their last 43 try’s, and the Reds look to have a disadvantage on the hill tonight if comparing the last 3 starts with Straily on the hill for them against Matt Garza who has less than a 1 ERA in his last 3 starts combined.  Fortunately Straily loves his home Park and is looking to bounce back after 2 bad outings after he went on a 6-0 run, and he is rock solid at home here going 6-1 this year with an overall home ERA of 2.85, and he is backed by a team hitting over .300 against right handed pitchers and when the Brew Crews bullpen comes out to play, they have over a 5 ERA in their 5 games in relief.  Reds won last night 3-0 and I see them winning again with a very reasonable number on the moneyline.

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati 

#482 - San Fran +2.5
Should be a snooze fest on offense (Under worth a look), however the home team here I feel has the better chance to get tit done.  Gabbert is the QB and that is a tough bet to swallow with him at QB, but Chip Kelly is always gunning and taking chances and I feel the trench war will be won by by an underrated unit on both sides of the ball for San Fran.  the LA Rams Keenum at QB is no bargain, he is a career backup starting as they groom their top QB pick, and San Fran will be locked and loaded to stop RB Gurley which will be the Rams main weapon tonight.  Rams over valued here.
Play 1 Unit on San Fran 
Two team 6 Point Teaser (points added).  Tease Washington to +9 and tease the Total in the Rams / Niners game to 48.5 and take the UNDER - 1 Unit

#911 - Colorado -115  *9:40 EST

Look Arizona doesn't give a rats ass and Shelby Miller will get tagged by the Rockies, who honestly have a chance at post season here.  Millers ERA his last is deplorable and Andersen for the Rockies is flat out red hot this last 3 with under a 2 ERA.  On the road or not willing to lay it.

Play 3 Units on the Rockies - Listed pitchers only

#479 / 480 - OVER 49 to 49.5 Washington / Pittsburgh  
These two teams are absolute OVER Machines.  Washington went Over 7 out of their last 9 in 2015, and they have an even better offense this season and are loaded at WR.  Neither teams defense is all that, and the Steelers look to trade punches on the Scoreboard in every game and the Steelers have a young defense still finding their identity.  The Steelers ranked in 30th place in 2015 in pass defense and no real additions in the offseason really impacted their status headed into this season.This should be a shootout tonight.
Play 1 Unit on the OVER

#473  -NY Giants +1

Dak Prescott and RB Elliott are rookies!  Without Romo the Cowboys have lost 23 out of 33 SU and despite a good OL, not sure they dominate enough for 2 rookies to steal the show against Manning and company and an improved defense for NY.  The Giants have not beaten Dallas since 2012, losers of 7 straight and they will have their A game for this one.   The rookie QB has everyone who is a Dallas backer excited after a stellar Preseason, but I have seen this hundreds of times in my 25 years of capping, August NFLX games are not the regular season and expect NY to attack him and confuse h8im with schemes and coverages.  NY wins outright.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants

#475 - Lions +3

Unreal as it sounds the Lions are 4-1 SU in season openers the last 5 years, and they should win this game outright.  Indy's OL and DL is a mess, and Andrew Luck is not surrounded by the better talent, QB Matt Stafford is for the Lions.  A 1-2 punch at RB, good WR's even without Megatron this year, and the real mismatch is in the trenches that is an advantage for the Lions.  Indy will not be able to run it and Detroit will.  Also Indy's best cover corner is out and their secondary is very suspect. Lions very underrated in my opinion and are no easy out for anyone.  

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

#463 - Chargers +6.5

Justin Houston out for KC, RB Charles is out and KC’s secondary is going to give up big plays, and stud Eric Berry just returned to camp after a holdout and had no preseason work.  QB Rivers for the Chargers has now a decent OL in place and weapons around him and I feel he will exploit a bad secondary for KC and without Houston at LB for KC, I think that is a huge hot for the defense.  KC is not explosive on offense and have nothing behind QB Smith as they traded away their best option to Philly, so if he goes down for any reason, Foles is not any help.  Philip Rivers the better QB in this game and the Bolts have not forgot the 0-2 effort against KC last year where they were outscored 46-6.  Oh by the way SD has not beaten KC in 2 years as KC is 4-0 SU, Chargers will be dialed in for this one.  This could go either way but too many points for KC to cover in week 1 even at home.  Alex Smith for KC cannot stretch the field vertically, nothing has changed and against a stout SD secondary he won’t take chances and either will Reid with his conservative play calling.  Tight game in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

#461 -462 - OVER 51 to 51.5 * Saints / Raiders

I expect a full scale assault through the air with both teams, and neither team has a Top 20 defense.  Brees and Carr should both have big days.  This game is one of the highest totals on the board for a reason, all offense and no defense.  

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

BONUS 2 team 6 Point Teaser (points added) - 1 Unit.  NY Jets UP to +8.5 and tease Houston Down to PICK 

#364 - Miss. St -7

First of all GREAT Line value here with the Bulldogs at home at night, cowbell central.  The Bulldogs LOST to South Alabama last week and this is an overreaction.  South Carolina sucks gents, and beating bottom feeder Vandy last Thursday means nothing.  Miss State under Mullens is a beast at home in Starkville, and it is a very tough venue to play in.  No more Dak Prescott, he is starting for the Cowboys this Sunday and there is a drop off, but SC will get exposed here.  Remember Vandy screwed the pooch in their game with SC and blew a 10-0 halftime lead and also this is back to back roadies for the Gamecocks.  Miss. St will show up huge in this game, spitting nails, and will ROMP an over valued South Carolina team behind a wild crowd.  Bulldogs get beat by So. Bama and still lay a TD?  Vegas Begging you to take SC here.  Don’t be fooled.

Play 1 Unit on Mississippi State

Ohio U +3

Yes, Frank Solich returns to Kansas where he coached many a game as an assistant, and a head coach at Nebraska, as well as playing as a player back in the day for the Huskers as well.  We are catching a number here that shifted 12 points from an opening summer line of Ohio U -9.  Wow.  Yes, Ohio U lost in a shocker to Texas St last week while Kansas who was dead last in the NCAA last year on offense scored 55 last week against Rhode Island.  Well, the Bobcats are vastly better than Rhode Island and will get back to their winning ways with Solich as head coach, who is a cagey veteran head coach who will have his boys ready to take on a bottom feeder Big 12 foe who may have been celebrating their first win since 2014 season a little longer than need be.  Ohio U blew a big lead last week in the 4th quarter, and Bobcat QB Windam is another good QB for Ohio and had 380 yards passing and 4 TD’s with no picks and Solich will run it KU as well, their DL starts 3 sophomore’s and their secondary is weak, so expect Ohio U to throw the playbook at them both ways. 

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U

#331 - NC State -5

I do a weekly radio show in Greenville SC, and the station is the Pirate Nation Radio Station Hub for East Carolina.  The guy who LOVES the Pirates said they would lose by at least 14 this weekend.  QB Nelson last week looked for ECU which was a huge concern for them, but this is a huge step up in class for ECU and I cannot ignore the fact NC States coach Doeren is 7-0-1 ATS against non ACC foes his last 8 and the last 4-0 ATS the road as chalk.  Small number here un der a TD, I will gladly lay it.  QB Finley who transferred from Boise St is the real deal for the Wolfpack, and he has a more than an above average RB unit to pound the smaller ECU defense all day.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina State

#321 - Cincinnati -5.5

Purdue is horrible guys, and Cincy underperformed last week.  Purdue is just 2-7 ATS their last 9 at home and the 1-2 punch at RB and possibly QB and up tempo style of offense that Cincy has, along with better coaching from Tubberville is all you need to know.  There are mis-matches in talent all over the field, and frankly does anyone think there is a huge home field advantage with Purdue here.  Eastern Kentucky put up 398 yards against Purdue last week and Cincy struggled against UT Martin, thus a soft line, trust me the Bearcats will have their game face on in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati

Denver / Carolina UNDER 41

Popular bet I am sure, maybe even a square side, but I am willing to drink the kool aide here with a basically a rookie / 2nd year QB getting he start for Denver against a pissed off and vicious defense of the Panthers looking to avenge a Super Bowl loss.  While Carolina has a mis match with their untested CB’s against 2 good WR’s, not sure Bronco QB can exploit under a heavy pass rush.  Denver’s defense top 3 in the NFL this year in my opinion and will contain and keep Denver in the game.  Not sold on either offense being very successful in any way here, and no one, including me expects a shootout here.  20-13 type ballgame.

Play 1 Unit on the Under.

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#971 / 972 - Yankees / Blue Jays OVER 9  *7:05 EST

No brainer here, neither pitcher a strong starter and neither bullpen stellar.  Brian Mitchell starts for NY in place of Chad Green his first start all year.  Stroman for the Blue Jays is a consistent high 4 ERA starter and last night these guys teed it up for 13 runs.  I think Toronto lights up Mitchell and the bullpen.  Both teams hit right handers better than southpaws, and both starters tonight right handers.  I expect plenty of hits and plenty of runs.

Play 2 Units on the OVER  (listed Pitchers Only)

BONUS PLAY – Kansas City with Duffy on the hill tonight.  Play #975 -  KC -133   *8:10 EST  (listed pitchers only) 

#911 - SF Giants +116  *8:40 EST 

No idea why this line is so soft with Samradzija on the hill who has been red hot for San Fran his last 3 games with a 2.50 ERA.  Catching the Giants off an ass kicking yesterday losing 6-0 and I expect them to bounce back big here, get some run support for their hot pitcher and get a win. San Fran had the best record in the NL before the All Star Break and now have went 16-31 since and are sucking hind tit in the wild card race by a couple of games.  I know they are fade material in numerous cases, but this is a must win game for them, I think they dial it in here against an up and down Tyler Andersen who starts on the hill for Colorado.  Not a huge stretch at this number, and while I am not willing to lay numbers with San Fran often, this is a good spot with some value.

Play 1 Unit on the Giants 

#975 - Texas -112  *4:10 EST 

Cole Hamels is hot.  In 14 innings against the Mariners in his last 2 starts against them this season, he allowed 3 runs in 14 innings and won both games.  Yes King Felix on the hill, but he is fading as are the Mariners, losers of 10 out of their last 12, and in those 12 games have allowed 4 runs or more in 10 of them, their pitching and bullpen have been the reason.  Like the Rangers here at a cheap number.

Play 1 Unit on Texas 

#209 /210 - Longhorns / Irish UNDER 58.5  *7:30 EST

Both teams have 2 headed QB issues.  Both teams will try to run the ball in a tightly ccontested game.  The strength and undervalued asset in this game is texas's defense.  I do not see a shootout here at all, but a chess match.  23 out of texas's last 33 games have went under the number and I expect a low scoring affair here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#168 - UTEP  Anywhere from -9 to 9.5    **8 EST Kickoff

New Mexico State is in big trouble.  They have little QB depth, one transferred out, another one was arrested and UTEP is by far the better team and have covered 7 straight in this series.  The best player for NMS is their running back Rose who may or may not play due to a hernia and surgery and iof he does play will not be at full speed.  UTEP big up front on both sides of the ball and have beaten the hell of NMS by double digits in each of the past 3 home games against them, some of the blowouts.   UTEP RB Jones should have a big day.

Play 1 Unit on UTEP

#186 – Texas AM -2.5   * 3:30 EST

UCLA way over respected here folks.  This is a team who lost to 5 wins Nebraska last year in a bowl game and Texas AM is clearly better.  Texas AM has Trevor Knight at QB and he is heads and shoulders above Rosen for UCLA who was hyped all last year but made numerous mistakes along the way, and this is a SEC defense he is facing.  Trust me, the sweltering heat in College Station in early September will play a role and Texas AM will have more gas in the tank in this one.  College Station is worth 3 points alone and laying less than a FG at release time.   This line will be 3 or more by gameday and still worth it.  Oh yeah, UCLA’s offensive coordinator from last year is now Texas AM’s OC!! 

Play 1 Unit on Texas AM

#166 - West Virginia -10  *12 est

Mizzou has a new head coach, a scheme and all new coaches without Gary Pinkel around.  Add in the fact they were a bottom feeder with little offense in the SEC last year, and this is West Virginia’s year to make or break Dana Holgorsen as head coach for WV.  Morgantown is a brutal road trip first of all, and Mizzou has some issues at QB for sure this season, and look to break in a youngster in this one which is not good news.  The Mizzou defense adept to speed playing in the SEC however West Virginia’s speed on offense is no joke and QB Skylar Howard is the real deal with 7 returning starters on offense to challenge the Tigers defense who lost the NCAA’s leading tackler Brothers last year at LB to graduation.  Not sold on Drew Lock’s ability at QB to open in a big game like this and trade punches on the scoreboard.  West Virginia will not let off the throttle in this one, they never do. 

Play 1 Unit on West Virginia

#198 - Houston +10.5 to 10  (this line will drop)   12 EST

Have no doubts, Oklahoma is loaded, and will contend for the Big 12 title and also a Final 4 playoff spot in the BCS, but do not discount Houston playing this one on national TV in NRG Stadium with all world and game breaker Greg Ward at QB.  He is the biggest playmaker in CFB and perhaps even better in the clutch as well, and kill you on the ground and through the air where he is the AAC Conference’s most accurate passer heading into this season.  For OU to lay 10 or more in this game on the road to open the season is dangerous.  Houston’s offense scored 40 ppg last season and will put up points here regardless of the step up in class.  Remember this is a team who beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year!  OU will find success through the air and Houston lost some OL lineman last year, but out of the gate OU is playing a team who is in their backyard with nothing to lose and a huge player maker at their disposal who gives defenses fits again is dangerous.  Grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#924 - KC -135   *8:15 EST

Must win for KC against division rival Detroit and here is the good news:  Danny Duffy on the Hill – Red Hot Pitcher.  KC took 3 from the Tigers last month on the road and this is a MUST WIN series for KC for any chance at the playoffs after struggling with the Yankees.  Duffy started for KC last month against Detroit and the Royals won 6-1 in that game.  Sanchez’s road ERA for Detroit is 7.65.  Royals look to light him up tonight behind their best pitcher. 

Play 1.5 Units on KC.

#134 - Florida International +10 to 10.5  *7:30 EST

At home against Indiana.  The Hoosiers lost 80% of their offense with the graduation of stud QB Nate Sudfeld and replaced him to start the season with a JUCO QB.  Also bear in mind that Indiana gave up 36 ppg on defense last year but could outscore people and yes they did take Michigan to OT last year, but that was because of Sudfeld at QB.  FIU has a veteran offense with 9 returning starters on it, and QB McGough for them is the best QB on the field and is at home.  They are avenging a 36-22 loss last year to Indiana, I like the big points and the home dog to get the cover with their offense keeping them in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Florida International.  

# 977/978 - KC / NY Yankees OVER 7.5  *8:15 EST

Both teams red hot at the plate, especially NY, and while Tanaka is on the hill for NY, I still see a hot KC team putting up some runs tonight against Tanaka, and of course Volquez is iffy at best and does allow some hits and runs, and he faces a NY team that is batting .325 as a team their last 5 games.  Last night was a shootout with KC winning their 18th out of their last 22 games.  This one will be a dogfight and I see some fireworks in the later innings when the bullpens get involved, and while all trends point to the under, the Yankees have gone OVER the stated total in 9 out of their last 13 games off a loss.  Contrarian play to fade the Under here, but these two are locking horns in what should be a good game, I just see NY getting all over Volquez early here.  Might be worth the -135 to play NY, but I do like the over.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

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#914 - Boston (-1.5 Runs on the Runline @ +100)  *7:10 est

Mr. Wonderful takes the hill for Boston tonight, Rick Porcello who is 12-0 undefeated at home this year with a 2.96 ERA.  He has allowed just 4 runs in his last 3 starts over 22 innings of work.  He has a no decision last week against Tampa.  We are catching Boston who is off an embarrassing home loss to the surging KC Royals and slipping in the standings, who face a bottom feeder tonight with Tampa.  Yes, Andriese has some decent numbers against Boston, however he is going to run into a buzz-saw tonight.  Boston averages 6 runs a game at home this year!  Motivated to beat an also ran, I like Boston big at home behind their ace. 

Play 2 Units on Boston on the RUNLINE 1.5.

LISTED PITCHERS ONLY GENTS AS ALWAYS 

#281 - Cincy +1.5  *8 EST

Two things here- short and sweet.  Jax hasn't won a game to date and their OL is a mess as they are trying out numerous combinations with tackle and guards.  Also past Bortels I am not sold on a productive QB scenario for them in the second half.  I really like the depth at QB and at RB for Cincy who destroyed the Lions last week and I expect Dalton and his cast of stars to rack up some first half points and retain a lead.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

I have 1 Premium Side Play Saturday in NFLX Week 3 action with the Giants / Jets Game and a late steam Bonus Play in the Bronco's / Rams Game.  Only 2 losses in the 2016 NFLX Season and I fully expect a 2-0 Sweep on Saturday as I continue to pummel the books in the Preseason off a rare loss on Friday.  HAMMER IT!

# 272 - Jets +2.5  **7:30 EST

Look the Giants have averaged 16 yards of offense so far in the Preseason, the jets over 300. The Giants have scored 10 points total in 2 games and one of the games they didn't score at all.  I like the Jets defense here to give Manning and company very little in terms of open looks down the field and the Jets have the better chance here as these 2 meet up on their home field.

Play 1 Unit on the NY JETS

BONUS PLAY - Play a Half Unit on the LA Rams +5.5 to 6

Over 45 to 45.5 San Fran / Green Bay

Kappernick makes his debit tonight for the Niners, and I expect production from all the Niner QB's. San Fran had 31 first downs last week!  Also look for green Bay to open it up tonight as well on offense, they have been very vanilla in the NFLX to date on offense and they can expose a weak San Fran defense here.  I expect at least 30 in the first half, I like this game with both teams in the high 20's, perhaps more.  Chip Kelly will try to score every series, even late.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

#253 /254 - UNDER 44.5 Dallas / Seattle  *10 EST Thursday 

Seattle has played so /so in the Preseason and Dallas quite frankly has lit up the scoreboard like a Christmas Tree scoring 41 last week in a blowout of Miami, and they scored 24 in a losing effort at the Rams where they had a 24-7 lead at one point before emptying out the bench.  Do not think Seattle who has not allowed more than 18 in the NFLX to allow Dallas to run ram shod in their house with a dress rehearsal for their defense in Week 3.  Seattle offense has been iffy at best and Boykin out of TCU has been getting a lot of time under center and does make mistakes and will continue to do so.  Dallas’s defense depth-wise is not all that good but against a non-explosive team I think the score in this one will be lower than this big number.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER. 

Note from Tony 

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#967 - Boston -145  *7:10 EST

Taking the Red Sox who are looking for the Sweep here before they face a Red Hot KC team this weekend at home.  I consider this a must win game to keep pace in the AL Est for them, and with Porcello on the hill with his recent 3 game ERA at 1.64, with some excellent offense behind him who face Tampa's Andriese who has torched his last 3 games with an ERA in thiose 32 games at over 8, I am siding with the better pitcher with the better offense where every game still counts.  Chalky a little, but worth the stretch.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

#927 - Kansas City +105  *7:10 EST 

I like the surging Royals who now are just 4 games out of a wildcard spot and are the hottest team in Baseball right now.  All key players are kicking in and Alex Gordon making huge strides.  Ventura on the hill for KC, one of the better August pitchers out there in MLB, 9-1 his last 10 August starts and lately in his last 3 starts has been stellar for KC, 2.25 ERA in those 3, and he has only  allowed 3 runs or less in his last 8 starts.  WOW!  Cashner for Miami is in bad form with over a 7 ERA in his last 3 starts, and KC getting run support behind a hot pitcher is a take.  Kansas City KNOWS how to win tight games and knows how to win late in the season boys, cheap ass number here.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City 

#959 - Boston -152   *7:10 EST

At the top of my limit on the moneyline but fading Snell from Tampa who walks hitters like crazy and he faces a team who has been hitting over .300 as a team their last 5.  Boston could light him up big time, and David Price takes the hill for Boston.  Enough said, Price will get the run support even if he has a below average night.  Failsafe bet here, lay the wood.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

#927 - Yankees -128  *3:35 EST

Looking to sweep the Angels here and why not, the Yanks outscored them 12-1 the first two games, I had a 2 dimer on them on Friday and LA just 2-14 their last 16 games and Chacin takes the hill for them today with a slumping offense behind him and his last 3 starts resulted in a 13.50 ERA.  Chad green no shut down pitcher for NY, but he will have more support than Chacin and New York will sweep the series and stay in the wild card hunt.  Hot versus Not. 

Play 1 Unit on the Yankees 

#428 - Texans -2.5  *8 EST 

I waited for this line to drop under 3, which it is in most places.  These two have been practicing together since Thursday and word is out of camp the Saints looked below average, especially on offense. The Saints also has some injury and heat issues during practices, Brese threw 2 picks in a scrimmage. I like O'Brien in the preseason, he goes for wins and is aggressive on defense,  and the Texans won last week as a dog on the road and I had them as well.  Another factor has been the heat and humidity, which New Orleans had big issues with coming from West Virginia where it was cool and fatigue will be an ordeal for them today and I expect a fresh rotation of roster players lower on the chart for New Orleans versus Houston.  Savage for Houston at backup QB has looked good and word is he is going to get some work and has moved up to the #2 spot.  A reliable QB who does not take chances.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#927 - Yankees -135  *10:05 EST

Tanaka on the hill, a killer road warrior pitcher with 2.65 ERA on the road and Weaver on the hill for the hapless Angels who have dropped 12 out of 14 games and looks like they are throwing it in.  Weaver has been lit up lately gents, he has given up 9 runs in his last 2 dismal starts (and 18 hits) and owns over a 6 ERA lifetime against the Yanks.  Add in the fact everyone left the Yankees for dead and they are playing some great ball while the Angels cannot get out of their own way, and the Yanks have their ace on the hill to boot.  Cheap line for a mis match in my opinion.

Play 2 Units on the Yankees

#415 Miami +2  *8 EST

Not sold on Dallas here and Adam Gase wants a win again after Miami waxed the Giants, last week, he was still calling plays to score in the 4th.  Dallas had a huge lead against LA last week but their defensive depth, or lack there of took over and LA scored at will late,  which is the case again tonight as Miami has some experience and depth at QB, and they also have stated their defense will be in attack mode and be more aggressive Game 2 of the NFLX.  Enough for me, and bear in mind Jason Garrett hates the preseason, and is 6-15 ATS as a head coach for Dallas in the preseason, that is 29% ATS!  Yeah Romo is playing, about 2 series! 

Play 1 Unit on Miami.  

#411 - Minny +3.5 to 3  *10 EST 

Lets make this real simple, Mike Zimmer likes to win, preseason or not, and he likes his team dialed in and playing hard every single play and series in the preseason.  The fact Seattle beat them last year by a single point in mid-January still stings in Zimmer’s mind.  I also watched Seattle play last week in person in Kansas City and frankly it was a miracle cover later in the game.   Both won and covered last week, and while Pete Carroll also likes to win anytime, I think the Vikes have enough motivation here to put this game in the win column. Although the Vikes beat Cincy last week, they got their ass out stated and did not run the ball well, and I expect them to work on the offensive consistency tonight and Bridgewater will get some work at QB.

Play 1 Unit on Minny

#953 - Dodgers -152  *7:05 EST 

This is the top limit of my moneyline wagering at -150ish but worth the stretch as the Dodgers are in sync and kicking butt.  This is more of a fade against the Phillies Eickhoff than anything, they guy has been lit up like a Christmas tree as of late, and the Phillies simply cannot beat good teams as they have won only 2 games of their last 43 against teams with a winning record, unreal!  LA on a 7-3 run and dialed in.  

Play 1 Unit on LA  

#919 - KC -105   *7:10 EST

A near pick’em, but all over KC who is looking to sweep the series with Ventura (2.89 ERA last 3) on the hill who has been stellar his last 3 outings against the slumping bats of Detroit, who have managed 2 runs in the first 2 games in this series total.  Did I mention at high ERA Sanchez starting for the Tigers tonight against some decent and recently hot bats of KC?   KC would love to spoil the Tigers AL Central chances but Detroit doing that all by themselves going just 3-7 their last 10 games.  Love KC here at this price.  KC is 6-2 the last 8 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on KC

#965 -  Toronto -103  *7:05 EST 

The Blue jays played terrible last night and it could have worse as the Yankees left 14 runners stranded and still won in a low scoring ugly one.  I like a rested Estrada tonight against Pineda who is on 4 days’ rest, and when he has a short window between starts at 4 days his ERA is 5.07.  I expect the Jays bats to improve tonight.  Estrada has a good road record and a good record against the Yanks as well.  I expect Toronto to even this series as they are now tied with the O’s for the Division, every game counts.  NY playing better than expected down the stretch but Blue Jays will be dialed ion for this one.

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

#917 - Seattle -128   *10:05 EST

Dirt cheap line, the Angels are reeling, and Seattle is hot as hell.  Tale of 2 different teams, and it almost looks likes the Angels are throwing it in at times, especially late in games.  King Felix takes the hill for the Mariners and is getting back to form since coming off the DL and I like his chance’s tonight against a downtrodden LA team, that Seattle just Swept 3-0 last week.  Angels just batting .166 as a team in their last 5 games, pathetic and why they have dropped 10 out of their last 12 games!  Oh Yeah, Mariners on a 9-1 run!

Play 2 Units on Seattle

Houston +3.5

Off the fall number of 3 here I will grab the extra half point although I think Houston wins outright.  Word is the Niners defense, especially the secondary has been horrible all camp, and have been burnt repeatedly in scrimmages as well.  I like the depth of Houston better than San Fran who is just now getting used to Kellys system and on offense it is going to be trial and error for awhile which benefits Houston.  O'Brien likes to win any game he is in and I see Houston with the better team and coaching staff in this one with more continuity on both sides of the ball.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

# 920 - Cleveland -121   *7:10 EST 

I cannot believe this line from Vegas.  I have this at at least -165.  Cheap number for the Tribe who look to continue to dominate the Angels who are back on their heels.  The first 2 games in this series, Cleveland has 27 runs on 32 hits, and LA's Shoemaker has a road ERA of almost 5. Although the Tribe may give up a few runs here, clearly the red hot offense of the Tribe will give plenty of run support and I like them here by 3 runs at least.

Play 2 Units on Cleveland 

#273 - Seattle +3   *4:30 EST

Have no doubts, although KC was stellar in Preseason last year, Andy Reid could care less about a win or loss here.  He has backup QB issues, and the health of a thing RB unit and even thinner WR unit in depth will keep the stars for KC out of this one.  Reid has stated publically he just wants out of this alive and well with no injuries to any key players.  Pete Carrol loves to win any game, anywhere, anytime.  I expect a lot of Aaron Murray, Nick Foles who does not know the offense yet, and Tyler Bray and Stanford rookie Kevin Hogan.  I do not expect KC to convert this tryout session for these QBs into points in bunches.  I also expect a Seattle defense, whose scheme even without all their studs, in attack mode as always. I will be at this game in person and fully expect a Seattle SU win. 

Play 1 Unit on Seattle  

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#965/966  UNDER 9 Toronto / Houston  *7:05 EST

The Astros played 3 games in two days and recorded a whopping 32 runs and 47 hits against hapless Minnesota as they head in here, against the division leading Blue Jays with Liriano on the hill, whose ERA the past 3 games is a 3.00.  Musgrove is a young up and comer for the Astro’s, but he has not seen a team like Toronto.  He has been impressive in 2 starts with an ERA under .80.  I do not see a ton of fireworks on offense in this one between two good teams.  The last 4 in this series has went under.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 9

BONUS:  Half Unit on Toronto -123. 

#257 - Carolina +1  *7:30 EST 

Reading the papers and websites about tonight’s contest in Baltimore, Harbaugh is sitting anyone of consequence and could care less.  Almost the entire defense is out, Flacco will not play, and the stadium has promised to show Michael Phelps Swimming performance on the big screens for the Olympics’ during the game.  Baltimore could care less and I like the Panthers chances here and depth much better plus more star power even for the first half is enough. 

Play 1 Unit on Carolina   

#963 / 964 - UNDER 9 Toronto and Tampa  *7:05 est 

The Blue Jays record against southpaws in terms of the Over Unders is impressive and cannot be ignored here.  When facing left handers, the Blue Jays have gone Under 8 out of the last 10 and an eye popping 22-6 on Unders in their last 28.  Two decent pitchers on the hill here too, Snell has an ERA of 1.95 his road starts this year and Every single road start has gone Under and Happ for the Blue Jays in his last 3 starts has an 0.95 ERA.  All signs point to an under. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Baltimore -144

Chalky but worth it.  The O's grab first place in their division on Sunday and are rolling.  The A's managed 3 runs in their entire series over the weekend and got swept and I like a good O's team to come in here and cash the ticket with Gausman on the hill, and I look for him to g4et his first win of the season on the road finally.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore 

Colorado -125 to - 130  (line will creep up, nail it down early) 

Fading a young pitcher in Conley for the Marlins here who should give up hits and runs, along with some walks in a hitters ballpark, on the road, where he does not pitch well. He was horrific in his last outing against the Cubs. On the other hand John Gray is no joke, in his last 5 games his ERA is 1.11 and is holding opponents in those 5 games to under a .190 batting average.  Love the Rockies at home with run support behind a hot pitcher.  I figured this line at -165+

Play 2 Units on Colorado 

#971 - Toronto -131  *7:15 EST

A red hot and damn near unhittable Sanchez takes the hill for the Blue Jays who I took last night against my hometown Royals and I will go back to back as KC continues it's free fall this season with Duffy on the hill.  On the surface with Duffy pitching well as of late for KC this looks like a take on him, but his record against the Jays hitters is not good, 16 runs against him in 23 innings pitched against the Jays.  KC's run support is weak and without Davis for KC as a closer, they simply cannot shut down good teams late in the game which is what won them a world series.  Toronto a real contender in the AL and with their ace on the hill, I am all over them.

Play 1 Unit on Toronto - again!  

Toronto -141

Gee on the Hill for KC who is fading fast, 3-10 their last 13 and Toronto is vastly better and loves nothing more than pounding KC who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  KC hitting .194 as a team their last 5 games, just pathetic.  No Brainer here.  

Play 1 Unit on Toronto 

#929 - NY Mets -117  *7:05 EST

The Mets waxed the Yanks last night 7-1 and I like them to do it again as Chad Green gets a shot in the rotation for the Yankees as they traded Nova.  Last time he started a full game he was lit up like a Christmas tree at Cleveland giving up 7 runs and 4 homers in less than 5 innings of work.  Mets bats are better and Matz takes the hill for the Mets, who is no sure thing bargain but his 3.19 ERA in his last 3 starts is more than respectable, and the run support on the side of the Mets here.  The Yanks have a lot of young players and are playing for the future, and that is public knowledge…I like the Mets here on a short number.

Play 1 Unit on the Mets   

#961 - Washington -148   *9:40 EST 

Chalky for a reason, and the Nats just obliterated the D Backs last night 14-1 and are clearly the better team here.  Getting Murphy back a huge plus in the batting rotation, and they have Roark on the hill who is 4-1 his last 5.  The D Backs bullpen stinks, they stink, that is why they are in last place in the NL West and they have given up 28 runs in the past 2 games, unreal.  Robbie Ray for the D Backs who is the starter tonight has over as 5 ERA at home this year! Washington rolls again.

Play 2 Units on Washington – Bet it early -this line will climb – Listed pitchers only 

#952 - Marlins +105   *1:10 EST

Miami +105

Short and Sweet.  the public is pounding the Cards Martinez in this one, I knew the would and I am fading the cards today against Casher who is making his Marlins Debut.  His numbers the last 3 games are better than Martinez, 0.79 WHIP and a 2.55 ERA.  Miami pounded St Louis 11-0 last night and are tied for 2nd place in the NFL wild card with St Louis.  I like Casher at home to impress the new fans and for the Marlins red hot bats to continue.  St Louis will lose this one late.

Play 1 Unit on Miami 

Pittsburgh -141

This opened higher and dropped below the magic -150 mark for me,  and I love this rookie pitcher Taillon for the Pirates.  4-0 his last 4, he has allowed fewer than 3 runs in 5 out of his last 7 outings and I look for the Pirates off a loss last night to even it up tonight.  Chase Andersen for the Brew Crew has been in decent form as well, but in a low scoring game here I like the Pirates.

Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh  (listed pitchers Only) 

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY - UNDER 9 Runs

#969 - Oakland A’s +150  **7:10 EST 

Going to take the red hot A’s on the road against a good Cleveland team here.  A TOTAL MIS MATCH with starting pitchers – Trevor Bauer is 0-6 in July with a 6.76 ERA.  Conversely we get a hot Kendall Graveman with under a 3 ERA in his last 3 starts, with some red hot bats behind him for run support, and the A’s have been hitting right handed pitchers hard their last 5, almost a team batting average of.300 against them.  Graveman is 7-0 his last 7 starts and his WHIP is 1.07 in those starts.  Run support and better pitching lie with the sizeable underdog and worth the stretch at this price.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland  (LISTED PITCHERS ONLY)  

#905 / 906 - Over 8 Runs Phillies / Braves   *7:10 EST

Both pitchers are giving up runs like crazy.  I see no end in sight tonight.  Nola is winless since June 5 and gave up 6 runs in 4 innings in his last start before getting yanked, and Wisler for the Braves has given up 6 runs in each of his last 3 starts and neither bullpen is nothing more than average at best.  Score fest tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

# 966 - KC Royals -110  *8:15 EST 

KC was blasted out of Kaufman Stadium last night, I know because I went to the game!  I like them to bounce back here with Duffy on the hill tonight to exact some revenge.  LA has Shoemaker on the hill, and he is a bad road pitcher going 3-7 his last 10 with an ERA approaching 5.  Duffy 6-1 in his 7 home starts with an ERA of 3.17 this season.  KC lacks quality pitching and is not the team from last year by any stretch, but this game tonight they want some payback after an embarrassing and dismal display last night.  Last two times Shoemaker started in KC he gave up 14 runs in 5 innings of work total.  WOW.  KC gets revenge.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City 

#907 /908  Over 8 to 8.5 Reds / Giants  **10:15 EST 

2 Bad pitchers, Cain’s ERA his last 3 is over 9 and Cody Reed goes for the Reds, and the Giants are lighting up southpaws at .327 as a team their last 5.  All the makings of a high scoring game here.  Love this total – opened at 8 and quickly jumped to 8.5, get on it now.

Play 2 Units on the OVER – Listed pitchers only as always. 

#964  Houston -145  *8:10 EST

A perfect scenario.  Good home pitchers versus bad road pitchers.  Not only that - but Houston is damn near unbeatable at home going 21-6 so far and they get Keuchel on the hill tonight at home where his ERA is 1.22 versus the Yankees in his last 5 starts against them.  The Yanks counter with Pineda who has a road ERA of 5.69 this season. He also gave up 6 runs and 3 homers to the Astro's in 5 innings they last time he faced them in April.  Not sold on NY on the road here against a hot team who tends to beat teams with winning records at home with ease.  Houston just swept the Angels th8is weekend and are avenging a series loss 1-2 to the Yankees back in April. Houston's bats are better, especially the last 5 games and NY struggles against good southpaws at the plate, just .220 as a team their last 5 games. Yankees are getting better but not as hot nor as good as the Stro's at home here tonight. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston

#919  Cleveland -133  **1:35 EST 

Taking Kluber here for the Tribe, the Cy Young winner has been hot as of late - Just 1 run allowed in this last 15 innings - asd this is a big game and possible ALCS playoff preview with these two teams. If his bullpen holds up and he goes 6+ innings this will be a winner.  Worley is young ands inexperienced for the O's and is a better reliever than starter in my opinion, and I like Cleveland in revenge mode after a 5-2 loss last night.

Plat 1 Unit on Cleveland