Over 196 Spurs and Heat

Miami has scored in excess of 100 points in each of their last 11 games and are clicking on offense.  San Antonio coming off a bad loss Monday and the last 2 games their offense has sputtered.  Miami plays little D and I like this one to go over the total and both teams exceeding 100 points.  Spurs at home average a 105 ppg this season on offense.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#623 - Washington +5 

The Huskies offense is 14 ppg better than that of San Diego St and they can and will also out rebound SDSU as well.  Anyone who watched any CBB this past 4 days realizes that without good rebounding, no matter how good the guard play is, those teams lose.  Washington better on offense and have scored 89 ppg their last 5, they are better at free throws, rebounds, bench and strength of schedule.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#728 - Oregon -6.5    *9:40 est tip 
If you noticed real good teams Saturday like North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia all covered numbers and the trend will continue here.  Oregon has a no brainer in round 1in a 901-52 lay up against Holy Cross, St Joe's battled it out against Cincy for a thriller 2 point win.  Oregon's offense way too much for ST Joe's here, and oregon battle tested out of good PAC 12, and Dana Altman can flat out coach as well as anyone.
Play 2 Units on Oregon 

#718 - Oklahoma -6.5  *5:15 est tip 
Willing to lay points here.  A look at VCU shows their toughest 3 games the last 4 weeks they lost SU.  They also lost to St Joe's by 13 in their conference tourney.  OU has 4 starters who have played over a 100 games together, Kruger will let the dogs loose here and OU has the best player still in this tourney.  I cannot see VCU trading points all day with high flying and battle tested OU all day.  OU pulls away late.
Play 1 Unit on OU
BONUS PLAY:  #733 - Tennessee Martin +7 in NIT Tourney 

Ohio State -1
Home court huge in the NIT and for Ohio State here. This game is for a quarter final spot. Florida without second leading scorer today and replace with a freshman and they managed a record 16 three pointers against North Florida in game 1 of the NIT, doubt they repeat that.  OSU battle tested out of Big 10 and have a better coach. They beat a good Akron team in round 1, and I like their forward play better than Florida's here. OSU 15-5 at home SU and Florida 5-8 on the road.
Play 1 Unit on Ohio State 

#527 - U Conn +8     *7:45 est tip

Here is a news flash - I have seen Kansas play 3 times in person this year and each time I leave the arena, my first thought is KU is NOT the #1 team in the nation.  If you shut down Graham despite their depth, they are dead and you know U Conn will defend the outside.  Kansas was tested by Baylor and West Virginia, who both could not hit a shot in the second half of those games.  U Conn red hot and Kansas overrated.

Play 1 Unit on U Conn

#524 - Virginia -7    *7:10 est tip

Butler beat an average Texas Tech team...big deal.  Tech had 4 good wins all year.  Virginia may very well be the best team in this tourney, surely in the narrative and their defense will shut down Butler.  period.

Play 2 Units on Virginia - Top Play  

#519 - Yale +6.5 to 6    *2:40 est tip

If NC Wilmington could rebound at all, and hit second half shots they would have beat Duke by 10 on Thursday.  Yale outrebounded Baylor, who is bigger than Duke, and they flat out are not afraid to pull the trigger from 3 point range.  Scrappy good team and they may be the Cinderella of this tourney when the dust settles .  Duke has depth issues and it will show, they had to play a full game in round 1, and while so did Yale, Duke is over rated and a very beatable team.

Play 1 Unit on Yale

#848 - St Joes +1.5   *9:57 PM est tip

Let me tell you the A-10 was no joke this year and St Joes ran the gauntlet of the tourney and won it all.  They also have the Player of the Year in the A-10  DeAndre Bremby and he is the best player on the floor here.  Not sold on Cincy even though they have 22 wins, as they lost in 4 OTs to U Conn in their conference tourney.  One thing I look at is road wins /losses and St Joes was 10-2 in road games SU this season and 22-10 ATS overall.  They have the better offense here and I am taking them plus points to win outright.  Cincy lost to Houston, Tulsa and Memphis in their last 3 out of 4 real road games, their lone win at bottom feeder East Carolina.

Play 1 Unit on St Joes

#849 - VT +6.5 to 7   *9:30 EST tip 
One thing is I love when the public is pounding a play and driving the line up, and a look at strength of schedule here tells you all you need to know.  Wins over Miami, Pitt, Florida State and Duke and playing in the ACC makes the Hokies a live dog here.  If you failed to watch hoops Thursday, underdogs are live this time of year and BYU played in a weak conference and although they score a ton of points, the contrasting styles and the defense that VT can play will not make this easy.  VT on a killer spread run and playing good ball despite needing OT to get by Princeton at 17-4 ATS their last 21 games. BYU has not fared well against ACC teams, 2-7 ATS their last 9 attempts.  BYU win, but it won't be easy and VT can knock down free throws as well, which is huge as you saw yesterday.   
Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech 

#841 - South Dakota State +9.5 to 10   *4:30PM est tip

Yeah Maryland early this season was a potential #1 seed, at least they were in the narrative but some poor play quite frankly down the stretch including an early exit in the Big 10 Tourney where they almost lost to Nebraska as a huge favorite before getting beat in the next round to Mich. State.  South Dakota and fire up 3’s from anywhere and walked through the Summit Conference Tourney and have a neutral floor record of 5-0 this year as well as a winning road record, Maryland will have their hands full here, and many sharp players in Vegas are on this game with SD (pro bettors).  My inside source has this as his top play Friday.  South Dakota also is very pesky on defense and should keep this well within the number.  Classic 12 seed vs 5 seed barn burner.

Play 1 Unit on South Dakota State

#826 - Oklahoma -14   *4 PM est tip

I think this is the blowout of the day.  OU by 20+ here. I rarely lay big points, but round 1 with a great team versus and average is a scenario I will jump on here.  OU is a veteran team on a mission and well coached by Kruger and was a sweet 16 team last year and lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer to West Virginia last Friday in the Big 12 Tourney.  They have 4 starters who have played 100 games together, and Buddy Hield is one of the best players in the nation.  Cal State knocked off New Mexico St to win the WAC Title but their leading scorer averages 12 ppg on the season and despite them having a defense that has kept them in big games and winning games, they have not seen a team like OU that can fly up and down floor with shooters everywhere.  2 years ago this group of seniors lost to North Dakota St in the first round in a shocker as a 5 seed, and trust me they will not overlook this opponent, and OU could quite possibly be a Final 4 team.   Blowout.

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma

#748 - Seton Hall +1  *9:57 EST Tip

No joke here.  Seton Hall won the Big East and can flat out ball.  Gonzaga played in a horrible conference and beating St Mary’s and BYU as your best wins this year is not a resume I am fond of laying points with.  Seton Hall knocked off 2 of the best teams in the country (Nova and Xavier)  in the Big East Tourney and are locked and loaded and confident.  Seton Hall battle tested all season with better teams, Zaga not as good of an edition as years past.  Gonzaga a public darling every year and are overvalued here, better team getting points.

Play 1 Unit on Seton Hall

#727 - Providence -1.5    *9:50 EST Tip

Kris Dunn the best player on the floor in this game and might be the best player in this region and the Friars have the 2 best guards in this game bar none, and USC is so inconsistent I cannot trust them, especially on defense in this one.  USC lost to anyone good in the PAC 12 all year and beating UCLA in round 1 of the PAC tourney before losing to Utah does not impress me either.   The Friars are a great road team as well and a cover machine away from home.

Play 1 Unit on Providence 

#735 - Fresno State +8.5   *727 est tip Thursday

My Vegas Insider who manages 7 sportsbooks and is on my national radio frequently, alerted me to this game right as the lines open.  The biggest sharp players were pounding this underdog more so than any other on Thursday.  Fresno St won the Mountain West Conference and Utah got blown out of the stadium by Oregon in a very bad showing.  Fresno has an offense that can keep pace and a defense that can slow down Utah enough to cover this number.  Utah has some injury issues to contributors which adds to a serious depth problem for this game.

Play 1 Unit on Fresno State

# 723 - NC Wilmington +10.5   *12:15 est tip

Duke has allowed 80 ppg on neutral sites and on the road this year and lack scoring power and depth.  Their run in this tourney is going to be short lived and while I think they win this game, NC Wilmington is no joke and beat Hofstra for the tourney championship and have scorers all over the floor.  David versus Goliath and they will give big brother in state headline grabber Duke all they want here and not in any frame of mind to lay double digits with Duke against anyone.  Yes step up in  class for Wilmington, but they will put up points against a bad defense and stay within the number.  Duke lost 3 out of their last 4 and almost lost to a bad NC State in the opening round of the ACC tourney.  Duke does not maintain leads well.

Play 1 Unit on NC Wilmington

# 634 - Georgia Tech -3.5   *9 est tip 

Houston lost to a 3 win team in AAC Tourney and did not compete in any big game this season.  GT had a rough start to the season and lost to Virginia in the ACC Tourney, who is a #1 seed in the big dance, but GT went 12-6 in the ACC with some very close losses to some very good teams, most in the NCAA Tourney and GT not disappointed to be here, and at home where they finished the season 4-0 an beat both Pitt and Notre Dame at home.  Houston is far lesser in talent than ACC foes and I expect a BIG GT win tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech

BONUS PLAY:  Idaho -2 for a HALF UNIT.   

Mavs +9.5 for 1 Unit guys.  

Short on time but Cleveland off an ugly loss and some issues with the Cavs and Dallas is fighting for the playoffs here.  Too many points in this one and Cleveland is terrible coming off a loss ATS.  Short and Sweet today.  

#558 - North Florida +7.5 to 8   **9 est tip 

Home dog in the NIT Tourney here who lead the nation in 3 pointers this year, making an astounding 402 of them and all 5 starters average double digits in scoring.  Florida was inconsistent all year on offense so this is a bad matchup and one has to wonder the motivation for the Gators here, while this is the Super Bowl for North Florida at home against a team who was 4-8 on the road this season and have covered just 3 out of their last 12 games against the line.  Big step up in class for North Florida, but that offense will keep this close.

Play 1 Unit on North Florida

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY – Vandy +3.5.   Shockers have 2 great experienced guards but the low post and wings belong to Vandy.

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#889 - Purdue +4.5   * 2 est tip 
Yeah yeah, I know Michigan State's Tom Izzo knows how to win the big game, but Purdue is red hot and I am not bucking a team getting over 3 points when they are hitting 56% from the floor in FG% their last 5 games.  Purdue dismantled both Michigan and Illinois playing good defense and scoring lights out and AJ Hammons is no joke for Purdue.  Valentine for MSU will get his points but I am looking at a down to the wire game and Purdue can hit free throws and are big down low when they get motivated.  Close all the way.  The fact MSU really struggled in a grueling matchup with Maryland has the fatigue factor clearly in Purdue's favor who breezed to a win in both their tourney games.
Play 1 Unit on Purdue 

#752 - North Carolina -2  *9 est tip

The Tar Heels have blasted every opponent in this tourney by double digits and have fed off a huge win at Duke coming into this tourney.  NC did not break a sweat yesterday pounding Notre Dame into submission by 29 points and blasting Pitt by 16 points in the opening game.  Virginia's defense is good, however when these two split the regular games NC was able to break 70 points in both games.  North Carolina is loaded at the guard position, they are deep, and have a veteran head coach that can flat out get the most out of his team in crunch time.  Willing to lay a bucket with NC here although the Cavs are ranked higher.  Virginia off a slugfest against Miami last night while NC cruised to a win.  Carolina rolling.  

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina

#748 - Kansas -3.5 to 4 MAX   * 6 est tip 

Gonna take KU here at a game I will be at in person in KC.  This is essentially a home game for Kansas and they did not cover yesterday as the line shot up all day long and struggled down the stretch against a scrappy Baylor team.  However the game WV played against Oklahoma was grueling and physical and a heart attack ending that was a replay review that went their way, and a game like that takes a lot out of you.  Home floor here worth 2 to 3 points for KU and their big man play and depth win it out for them.  Last game they played KU laid 7 and won by 10.  Won't be easy but I expect KU to pull away late.  KU #1 for a reason and have covered 9 out of their last 12 Big 12 games.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

BONUS PLAY - Akron -4 for Half Unit.  Buffalo's defense is deplorable and has allowed 81 ppg their last 5 games.  Akron allowed 63 in their last 5.  

#734 - Ark - Little Rock -3 to 3.5   * 2 EST Tip

UL simply cannot win away from home.  4-11 on the road.  Arkansas Little Rock is 12-4 on the road and the Trojans beat the Cajuns twice this year already. Little Rock has the best record in the nation at 27-4 and they rank 3rd in the nation in scoring defense and yet they are called a bubble team and need to win this game and tourney to get in the dance.  They have 2 solid guards and I like them here by 6-8 points. 

Play 2 Units on Arkansas Little Rock

Washington +4

Hood is out for Utah and his 14 points in this game and Washington despite losing 3 in a row should have Beal back tonight and they are averaging 9 ppg more on offense than Utah in their last 5 games.  Like Washington to snap the streak, Utah has lost 7 out of their last 8 and have not covered the spread at home their last 4 home games and are 0-9 ATS on 1 days rest this year.  

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#528 - Maryland -7.5 to 8   *8:55 est tip

Nebraska is my alma mater.  That said the Huskers got by Wisconsin last night in a dogfight and without Shields, the Huskers are average at best going up against one of the top teams in the nation who are well rested.  Nebraska got by a bad Rutgers team, and grinded it out last night but shot their wad.  Maryland’s guard play vastly better than the Huskers and while I hate to lay over 6 points in any tourney game, a well-rested Maryland team on a mission against a team who does not even have a winning record who is wore out has blowout written all over it.

Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

#570 Kansas -6  *7 est tip

Square as hell to take KU here, but I live here, have seen this team play in person, and Kansas is loaded and truly one of the top 4 teams in the nation.  Baylor managed to beat a so – so Texas team badly and I was not impressed since Texas self-destructed, but KU beat Baylor twice this year and is a different animal in Kansas City in this tourney which is a home game in all aspects.  Kansas loaded, deep, talented at the guard spot and can knock down shots.  Baylor needs to play “big” and try and slow KU down.  Just not in the cards.  Kansas wants this title, they are the batter team and this floor is worth 3 points alone to them. I expect KU to step it up big time and blowout Baylor.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#565 - Providence +9   *630 est tip

Too many points with Nova being a huge fav.  These two split the regular season and Nova without the service of Ochefu tonight and his rebounding and 10 ppg.  Providence’s offense has been hitting on all cylinders and they can put up enough points here to keep this within the number.  Again nothing comes easy this time of year gents, and this will be a dogfight between 2 old rivals.  Providence beat a good Butler team by 14 to get here. 

Play 1 Unit on Providence

#540 - Cincy -1.5 to -2    **2 PM EST Tip

Cincy dominated U Conn twice this year and numerous players on the Bearcats team have went down the last 2 years to U Conn in this tourney and will dial it in here.  Cincy should own the boards and are off a big time performance against SMU.  Short and Sweet but Cincy’s DEFENSE the key in this game.  Very physical, athletic and well rested.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

Play 1 Unit on Colorado - no time for writeup.  Too many points and Buffs can win SU, and have already beat Zona once!  

#773 - Washington +7.5 to 8   *3 est tip

Not sold on Oregon putting away a team who can score lights out.  Washington blew Stanford up for 91 points yesterday and are rolling.  Oregon can win this game but as you have seen laying big numbers is DEATH in these tourneys, even in the first round.  Washing has a great guard tandem and that is huge.  Oregon beat Washington by 13 two weeks ago, but Oregon away from home where they went 16-0 this year, is a different animal and are not near as dominant. Nothing comes easy guys, Oregon the better team but they have a target on their back. 

Play 2 Units on Washington.  

#719 - Duke -2.5     *2 est tip

Notre Dame embarrassed Duke on national TV a while back, and coach K loves payback.  Duke was lucky to win yesterday and had a meltdown in the second half.  This is a manageable number and Notre Dame really looked bad down the stretch of the season, losing to Miami, GT and Florida State and the Irish are not a good road tea,.  Coach K knows how to win this time of the year, and knows how to exact revenge and motivate his ball club, and nor doubt, Coach K wants to win this tourney.  It gets tougher from here but a win helps Duke big time in the Big Dance Seeding.

Play 1 Unit on Duke

#536 - Kansas State -5   **7 EST TIP

K State close to home with lots of fans at the Sprint Center in KC for this one.  K State playing for NIT berth and need a win here to solidify that.  Okie State has thrown it in, they do not play hard for coach Ford who will be fired soon after this game.  Okie St has lost 6 in a row and 5 of them by double digits, injury riddled all season and tonight, K State has a ton to play for, Okie has nothing,  and Bruce Weber will have them fired up for this one and is the better coach by far.  Okie St gets down early and they just may toss it in early.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas State

BONUS PLAY:  Play a Half Unit on Marquette -6.5  (vs St Johns)  Take Marquette #564

Under 150 Washington and Stanford

Both games went under the total in their 2 meetings and this number has not been adjusted.  Stanford in the past 2 weeks have lost 2 players that contribute 14 ppg to their cause.  Stanford has scored 57 ppg on neutral floors this year and failed to score more than 64 in either of their last 2 games. 2 weeks ago these two scored 117 points total.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#726 - St. Marys +2   9 est tip 

Not sold on the Zags, they have a lot of wins this year but anyone good they have basically lost to, and they have lost to St Marys twice and no one thinks they can lose 3 times because they are the Zags.   Even with 25 wins the pundants say the Zags have to win this conference championship to get in the big dance.  That tells you something right there.  I doubt St Marys hits 60%+ from the floor like they did against Pepperdine last night in a blowout, but they have shooters all over the place and are the better team. St Marys is 168-17 SU when they exceed 70 points and with 4 players that average double digits on offense, I like their chances tonight after the Zags had to play a grueling games against BYU last night that was in doubt all the way just to get here.

Play 1 Unit on St Marys 

#515 - Green Bay +9   **7 est tip

The last game these 2 played Valpo won by 2 at Green Bay.  Green Bay has won 2 tourney games to get to the semifinals and won yesterday- and Valpo has not played in a week with the bye into this tourney.  One of Valpo’s guards is out for this game (Walker) averaging 10 ppg on a high octane offense.  They also have another guard banged up but is listed as questionable but word is he is playing with a bad ankle and they also have a forward out who is averaging 7 ppg and some rebounds. When teams are idle it takes them some time to get back to square one and that leaves the door open for GB who have lost twice to Valpo this year and are rolling with the better defense in this game.  Backdoor cover here.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

Evansville +1 to pick (first open)  
The Purple Aces have dominated teams in this tourney to date.  Northern Iowa off a grueling OT win over #1 seed Wichita State yesterday and it took its toll.  Northern Iowa had trouble knocking down shots and the Shockers could not buy a bucket, and no doubt fatigue will play a role here even though Evansville played the late game. They blew out Indiana State and won both their tourney games here by a combined 36 points.  ALSO the Aces have DOUBLE revenge here as they lost by 3 points and then 2 points to NIU, and the last loss was last week in the regular season finale and fresh in their mind.  Hard to beat a good team 3 times in a month guys, and although NIU is red hot and on an 11-1 run, the pressure is mounting.  Depth is an issue as well for NIU. The Aces are 25-8 on the year and have the fresher legs and better offense and they play just as good as defense as NIU does, and that double revenge factor is huge.  This will be a tight one, Evansville pulls it out late.
Play 1 Unit on Evansville

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#535 - Iowa State +9.5   *  4 est tip 
Yeah Kansas at home and going for an outright title which they already share, but ISU the last team to beat Kansas, and KU has ripped off 10 straight and ISU coming off a rare low scoring win at home against Okie St where they were looking ahead to this one.  4 seniors leave Phog Allen today at 60-2 with their career home record while at KU, but this one will not come easy as ISU leads the Big 12 in scoring and will pull out all the stops and make this interesting.
Play 1 Unit on Iowa State 

#571 - Oregon -1.5   *4 est tip 
Yeah road team here against a good ball club in USC - however USC has trouble from the charity strip and the Ducks do not, 79% their last 5 games and that is huge, and USC has lost 10 in a row to Oregon straight up dating back to 200.  Dana Altmans Ducks are for real, and could tie up the regular season crown with a win and not a tie and they are the #1 seed in the PAC 12 tourney next week regardless but this team has scorers all over the floor, and USC plays bad defense.  Tight one, but I like the Ducks by 4 to 5 on the road here.   Ducks 17-8 ATS their last 25 PAC 12 Games.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon

Northern Iowa +9.5

The Panthers are the hottest team in the Mo Valley and they are playing defense allowing 55 ppg their last 5, and they are 10-1 SU and on a 9-1-1 ATS run and own a win over Wichita St in the last 2 weeks.  Too many points here as WSU is over valued.  Northern Iowa can keep this score low with their defense which always brings big points into play.  Dogs were covering all over the place yesterday in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Northern Iowa

#558 - Texas Tech -5   *3 est tip 
K State has a 1-7 road record and just cashed a ticket to stop a 3 game slide to bottom feeder TCU.  Texas Tech at home is a beast and Tubby Smith the better coach in this game.  K State is young and are already locked in the 8th seed for Big 12 Tourney.  Tech who I saw play Kansas in person last week was sluggish in that game and could not buy a basket and still gave mighty KU a game.  I like them here as they are fighting for the Big Dance and a win here would go a long way for them.  Better team, tough home floor against a bad road team.
Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech 

Miami -9 to 9.5

Okafor is out or is at less than 75% tonight for Philly if he even plays which is doubtful, and he is the cog in the offense and the Heat will not back down here.  Nole also is banged up for Philly but expected to play.  The Heat are 20-3 SU against Philly their last 23 games.  Philly has lost 10 in a row allowing 116 ppg in those losses on the average. 

Play 1 Unit on Miami 

#855 - Ohio U -2   **7 est tip

Absolute joke of a line.  Ohio U has blown out Miami of Ohio already this season.  This line is a joke, because they won by 12 the first time around and were laying 11.5 and now they lay 2 points to a team with 7 home losses this year?   Tourney seeding on the line here for the Bobcats who are 47th in total offense and 24th in FG% from the arc in the NCAA, again laying 2?  Ohio rolls – 84 ppg their last 5 games on offense.  Plus catching Miami of Ohio off a huge upset win over a disinterested Akron team.  Spot bet boys!

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U

BONUS PLAY HALF UNIT – #870  Illinois State -5   - They beat Indiana St by 28 two weeks ago.   

#558 - Missouri State -2   *9:30 EST TIP  (Thursday) 

MSU won both games this season by 9 points each and bear in mind Drake is 0-12 on true road games and 2-12 on the road including neutral floors and Mizzou state has one of the better scoring offenses in the Mo Valley and quite frankly this number should be 5.5 on my power ratings on a neutral floor.  Drake is also out manned big time on the boards here.  Cheap number, lay it.

Play 2 Units on Missouri State 

#578 - Tennessee State -4.5   *7 est tip 

Look for Tenn. St to whack Austin Peay tonight laying a short number.  TSU just Belmont division leader Belmont out of the Ohio Valley Conference by 15 and also have already defeated Austin Peay by 14 in regular season conference action.  Too much firepower for AP to hang with and TSU well rested and prepared to make a run in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee State 

#753 - Creighton +3.5   -*9 est tip

Creighton avenging a loss where they didn’t hardly score in the second half against the Friars in their first meeting and this is tale of two teams going in different directions.  Creighton has a huge advantage at coaching here, and I like the run they have been on.  Providence 2-5 their last 7 games SU, and only covered 1 spread in those games.  Creighton rolling with revenge and trying to get to 20 wins and make a case for a tourney bid. 

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

#761 - Nevada +9    * 9 est tip

Yeah a road team, but the Wolfpack should dominate the boards here, and cheap buckets to keep them in this.  Boise State no slouch on offense but play little defense and Nevada averaging 77 ppg their last 5 and they are on a nice and solid 5-1 SU / ATS run and playing some solid ball.  I will gladly take the points here.

Play 1 Unit on Nevada 

#757 - Oregon –2.5 to 3  * 9 est

The Ducks have burnt me a couple of times this season, but Dana Altman knows how to coach in March.  Oregon already pounded UCLA by 14 once this year.  #1 seed for PAC 12 Tourney and regular season title on the line here, all motivation on the side of the Ducks and the better team and better coach is all Ducks here.  UCLA off a tough loss to Stanford and many say after that game the dejection of the team was huge.  Like the Ducks to roll here.

Play 1 Unit on Oregon

UNDER 220 Atlanta / Golden State

Atlanta has failed to break a 11 ppg average in their last 5 games and they managed just 87 points on offense in their last game.  Yes Golden State plays little defense but Curry is listed a questionable tonight with a bad ankle and I doubt he can go off for 30+ tonight if he does play, and the Hawks can play defense and contest the outside shot.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#550 - Air Force +4 to 4.5  - 9 est tip 

Home dog that should win outright.  A 12-4 team at home, avenging a loss to Utah St earlier this season.  They have beaten some of the conference’s best teams in here, Boise St, New Mexico, UNLV and Utah St is a bad road team laying a number over 3 here as they are 4-8 ATS on the road this year.

Play 1 Unit on Air Force

#719 - Kansas -2   9 est tip 
 
I would fade Kansas here, and look at this like the Seton Hall game yesterday, HOWEVER I went in person to Kansas game on Saturday and quite frankly if Texas Tech could hit a shot, especially early to save their life they would have won that game and Bill Self was not happy, despite tying for a Big 12 crown, and Kansas can still win the regular season crown outright and #1 seed if they win out and everyone knows Bill Self's ability to coach this time of year.  Texas off a huge upset win against Oklahoma who self destructed the last 7 minutes of the game Saturday against Texas.  Let down spot for Texas and Kansas will be hungry and ready to play and KU's bench depth is no joke.  Since KU played poorly Saturday there was little celebrating and KU owns Texas and will not take this lightly.
 
Play 1 Unit on Kansas - might be a square bet but they want that Big 12 crown all to themselves so PLENTY of motivation here. 

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#825 - Duke +1   - 2 EST Tip  
Two things at play here and I am making this short and sweet.  Who better to coach a team in late Feb gearing up for tourney time?  I will tell you - Coach K.  While thin on the bench Duke's Top 6 is vastly better than Pitt, even on the road.  I have a 4 point overlay on this game against the spread.  And when has Pitt ever if rarely won a big game?  Piutt 0-6 against ranked opponents.  Enough said - square bet or not I am taking the better team
Play 1 Unit on Duke

# 577 - Kent State -1.5   3:30 est tip 
Going with Kent St here who is a playing a team who is 3-8 ATS their last 11 Saturday games and scoring just 58 ppg on offense their last 5 games.  Miami of Ohio just 9-7 SU at home and a also a team with just 1 road win all year.  Too much offense for Miami of Ohio to handle and trade punches with a very short number here gents.  Hidden Gem. 
Play 1 Unit on Kent State

#556 - Evansville -4   2 est tip 
The Purple Aces at home here where they are 13-2 and score 80 ppg, playing Northern Iowa who manages just 66 ppg on the road.  Northern Iowa has been on a roll their last 10 but has played weak sisters including Drake and bradley and you have a unique situation where Evansville who has a Senior heavy class playing on Senior Day on a strong home floor and avenging a loss to Northern Iowa earlier this month.  NIU meets their match here as their defensive  numbers the last 5 games which are solid, play an elite offense on their home floor that are highly motivated. Evansville tied with Illinois St for #2 seed in Mo Valley Tourney and ISU has Wichita State today so a win would secure that seed as their is a high chance ISU will fall.  Huge Game here. 
Play 1 Unit on Evansville

#544 - Miami -3  2 est tip 
Louisville comes calling and Hurricanes are tied for 2nd place with the Cards in the ACC.  Cards on post season ban and they want this one and all the pressure on them and emotional but I like Miami at home here.  Louiville a bad road bet just 3-7 ATS ands 4-5 SU and Miami is a beast at home with 1 loss all year there and they are 10-3-1 ATS at home.  Miami plays great defense at home and I expect a thin Louisville team with depth that have foul issues as usual.
Play 1 Unit on Miami

OVER 209.5  -  LA / Memphis

Have you seen the Lakers on defense?  Neither have I or damn near any team they face.  As a matter of fact outside of about 4 or 5 teams this season, no one in the NBA is playing defense.  These two just had a monster shootout in the home / home series that put up 247 points, and LA managed 119 points with their troster.  Memphis used to play defense, that seems out the window and I expect a mirror image of the first meeting here and expect at least 220 in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#731 - SMU -4.5   7 est tip

Memphis just lost to the worst team in the conference and do not forget SMU is the best team in this conference and lead the conference in scoring and FG%, which is amazingly 50% on the year.  SMU playing every game like it is their last with no conference tourney and no post season because they are banned this year.  They can win the regular season crown in AAC but need this win to keep pace with Temple for that so plenty of motivation on many levels with a very good basketball team who can flat out light it up.  I have this at 8 points on a power rating, so I will lay this number.

Play 2 units on SMU

# 503 - Charlotte +8.5 - 7 est

Cleveland lost their ass and scored 88 points against Detroit in a loss after Waxing OK City and Irving is not 100%.  Charlotte is one of the few teams to beat Cleveland as of late back on the 3rd of this month and a big boost for the Hornets is getting Al Jefferson back after the all star break.  The Inside game for the Hornets will keep them in this one and Cleveland still so inconsistent I am not willing to lay this number against a winning team on a 5 game win streak.  Anytime you have a team that averages YTD a 102 ppg, laying big numbers against them is always dangerous.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte

#541 - Mississippi State +12  7 est tip

Yeah Texas AM off a huge OT win against Kentucky Saturday – I had them as a Top Play.  I fade them now, against a MSU team off back to back upset wins over Bama and Vandy and Miss. St playing a great brand of hoops right now.  Many teams who are secured in the NCAA Tourney are letting off the throttle slightly and you can see that in the daily box scores, and resting yup for a conference tourney run as well as NCAA run.  Texas AM is locked in for NCAA Big Dance action and off a huge emotional and draining win I will take the generous points with a more motivated team.

Lay 1 Unit on Miss St

NOTE:  March Madness #1 Capper at 71% in 2014 and a Top 10 at over 64% last season in March Madness.  BLOWOUT $200 rest of the Season in CBB includes all MARCH MADNESS- NIT Tourney was near 70% last season.  INVEST - WIN - GET PAID  

OVER 202 Houston / Utah
I like the scoring and offense of Utah.  Although they have a worse record than underachieving Houston, they are favored 5 in this game.  Shooting 48% from the floor in the last 5 and playing at home in the altitude helps their cause, and fatigue will be a factor for Houston playing this way above sea level where they reside at home. That means more bad defense from the Rockets. Neither team playing any defense what so ever  Houston allowing 108 ppg their last 5 games and Utah 106, and both are scoring in access of 103 ppg in their last 5 games.  I expect a shootout here.
Play 1 Unit on the Over

#739 -Kansas -1.5
Not getting in front of Bill Self and the Jayhawks this time of year, especially with the Big 12 title on the line. Baylor defense is their biggest issue, allowing over 80 ppg their last 5.  Kansas destroyed Baylor back in early January by a score of 102-74 and KU is 8-1 ATS their last 9 trips to Waco.  KY loaded and Ellis is playing.  Bill Self knows how to win this time of the season.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas
BONUS Half Unit Play - #755 - UNLV +6.5 (Rebels scoring in bunches and will keep pace here and already beat Boise St this season.)

#524 - West Virginia -5 to 5.5    9 est tip 
Iowa State struggles against good teams that play good defense.  West Virginia already displayed that with a win in Ames over ISU, and the Mountaineers are averaging wins at home by 23 ppg and allow just 58 ppg on defense at home while scoring 81.  Iowa State is on a a brutal scheduling spot here and this is the toughest road trip in the Big 12 to make, a brutal road trip, and for ISU who is 0-3 after a home loss in revenge to the same team. It should be noted that ISU was outrebounded by TCU on Saturday and TCU is the worst rebounding team in the Big 12.  West Virginia got blowout out for the second time this season at home which is rare against mighty Oklahoma, but I watched that game and they had it tied up with less than 8 minutes left before they imploded. Home court worth 3 here and West Virginia has a TON to play for as they are in a tie for the Big 12 lead. Morgantown bites ISU tonight along with a full court pressing defense of Huggy Bears team.
Play 1 Unit on West Virginia  

#843 - WICHITA ST.-11.5

Indiana St is a paltry 1-8-1 ATS in conference games their last 10, and are currently on a losing streak of six in a row ATS. WSU won the first meeting in Wichita 82-62. WSU is 12-3 ATS in conference play and 5-1 ATS on the road their last 6 games.  After losing at home to Northern Iowa the Shockers have ripped off 2 wins by 30 and 29 points, and as the Mo Valley Tourney approaches you can expect WSU to continue to dominate.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita St

#578 - Texas A&M (pk) vs Kentucky - 6:30 est 

A&M just broke a vicious four game skid with a dominant 15-point blowout of Ole Miss Tuesday Night. They didn’t have to travel this week and had a full three days off in between games to get ready for their biggest game of the season, a home tilt with perennial blue blood legend Kentucky at home on Saturday to stay in striking distance of an SEC regular season title.

While most people believe that Texas A&M was not as good as their peak #5 ranking, they are also not as bad as their current ranking outside the top 25. The starting five of Danuel House, Jalen Jones, Tyler Davis, Alex Caruso, and Anthony Collins is as good as most teams in the country. They also have depth and size off the bench in the front court.

All three starting forwards (House, Jones, and Davis) average double digit scoring and at least five rebounds per game.

The Aggies only shoot 36% from 3-point range but Kentucky also struggle from deep range and Texas A&M is one of the few teams that may be able to match the Wildcats strength for strength.

Kentucky enters this game red hot on a four game win streak but they just played at home on Thursday night and now must travel across the country with the quick turnaround to play a talented team with extra rest and extra motivation in their biggest game of the season.

Texas A&M has no excuses here. They have the advantage of being at home all week preparing for this game and they come in with momentum as they just beat a 16 win Ole Miss team by 15 on Tuesday. Look for Texas A&M to play with a ton of energy and the crowd to be energized as the Aggies get back into the SEC mix with a huge win over Kentucky.

2 Units on Texas AM TOP PLAY (PICK EM) 

#599 - Kansas -5  6 EST

Already beat K State by 5.5 and yes K State can be a Giant Killer at home however Kansas playing hard for #1 seed in Big 12 Tourney in KC in 2 weeks as they are tied with West Virginia for the lead eright now and WV has a tough game today with OU.  Kansas is better and deep that K State and off a 27 point win over Okie State and they will not lay down in this Sunflower Showdown rival game.  

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#552 -  Louisville -6.5 vs Duke  Noon EST 

I will be the first to admit that when  Louisville announced their postseason ban that the Cardinals may just fade away this season as their top two players are both grad transfers in Damion Lee and Trey Lewis. Yet the Cardinals still seem to be remaining positive, upbeat, and motivated to win the ACC regular season title which they control their own destiny to do so.

Wednesday they got down 12 points early to Syracuse and were on a two game losing streak and it looked like they may just pack it in. Yet the fought hard and actually ended up blowing out Syracuse in the 2nd half. After the game I remember seeing all the players smiling and happy around each other. At this point it appears that as long as they are in the hunt to win the ACC they are going to play hard.

Duke is coming off their biggest win of the season, a last second win at arch rival UNC on Wednesday. Yet the game was really tough and the one take away from that game was the reminder that this Duke team is only playing six guys right now due to injuries and thus with so little depth it is hard for them to have sustained success continuously each and every game.  Opened at 4 and shot up - for a reason.  Depth will kill Duke today. 

Louisville is deep, motivated and has the exact attacking style of play that could get Duke in foul trouble and cause some real issues for this short handed Duke team. It is also hard not to have a letdown after such an amazing win at UNC.  While this one may look close on paper it smells like an easy win for Louisville in this spot.

Louisville 1 Unit

Over 152.5 Oakland and Valpo

Two top teams going at it here.  In the last 8 games Oakland who has a Top 10 offense in scoring has exceeded 82 points on offense in all but 1 game.  They are scoring 91 ppg their last 5 games and allowing 80.  The Key to this cover is not Oakland’s offense, it is their horrific defense who faces a good team.  13 out of the last 19 roadies Oakland has went over, and Valpo is the crème of the crop in the conference and will have easy shots.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Missouri St +22

The Shockers in free fall and not in good form and I am not laying 22 against a team who has almost a .500 record just because Wichita St "is due" for a huge win.  Sloppy play and a big number, in a climate where big dogs are covering like madmen, which they do this time of the season, nothing comes easy especially when you are pushing for a win of any kind.  WSU struggling BIG TIME on offense and laying a number like this?  

Play 1 Unit on Missouri St 

#722 - Arkansas -15.5  7 EST

Number low due to Arky losing two in a row but Auburn is in bad shape without their leading scorer.  I researched this to no end and Auburn’s last 5 road games the numbers are horrific.  28% from the floor, 57 ppg and 23% from beyond the arc and barely breaking 60% from the free throw line.  I honestly feel Arky will be super focused in this one at home and could hang 85+ tonight and doubt Auburn can break much more than 60 points, willing to lay it.  Auburns top 2 scorers from the beginning of the season no longer playing, they are worse than Missouri right now and the worst team in the SEC.  THIS HAS BLOWOUT WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.  I RARELY WILL LAY POINTS LIKE THIS UNLESS I AM EXTREMELY CONFIDENT OF AN ABSOLUTE ROUT, WHICH I EXPECT.

Play 2 Units on Arkansas – TOP PLAY

BONUS Half Unit to 1 Unit Play – Oklahoma -3 (9 EST Tip).  Look for them to bounce back after the KU loss and they hung 90+ the last time they waxed Texas Tech.  

#515 - Creighton +6.5   7 est Tip

Too many points against Butler here.  The Bluer Jays are on a hot streak and playing a much better brand of basketball right now and are an under the radar team here in the Big East.  Creighton scores 79 ppg and are highly rated on offense but their defense has been stellar as of late and I like them catching this many points to a team they have already beaten. Butler can put up points too, this will be a high scoring game, but Butler off an ass kicking at the hands of Xavier where they managed just 57 points and bear in Mind Creighton sits 3rd in the Big East and is undervalued here.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton 

Texas / West Virginia UNDER 137.5 – 7 EST Tip

The last 5 in this series has went under and Texas plays some defense at home and the last game had a 105 points scored total and the last 4 in this series have all went Under.  Tight game here all the way, WVU holding on to a slim lead in the Big 12 and avenging a loss here, so this will be a battle.  Texas is 7-1 ATS on the under their last 8 games and are 6-2 ATS on the UNDER in their last 8 home games.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

#521 - Toledo +3 to 3.5   7 EST Tip

On the road but the number is good here.  Toledo on a roll and cashing out tickets with a high octane offense.  Central Michigan has one of their star players questionable tonight, but none the less not sold on CMU at home able to trade to punches on the scoreboard here.  The Rockets on a 4 game hot streak scoring 80 and allowing 64 and are also hitting 85% from the charity strip in that stretch.  Hot team, who is playing with double revenge as they were swept by CMU last year.

Play 1 Unit on Toledo

#703 - Oakland -1.5 to 2 (this line will go up) – 5 EST Tip – Early Game

Funny things happen in the Horizon Conference but you cannot ignore 2 key points in this game.  Oakland ranked 2nd in the nation on offense, and 5th in free throw percentage.  Oakland also has already beaten Wright State by 26 points 4 weeks ago.  Kahil Felder is one of the better scorer’s in the NCAA at 25 ppg for the Oakland Grizzles, and they have shooters all over the place.  Wright State cannot keep pace all night and this number is too short. Yes Oakland plays little to no defense but they have averaged 91 ppg on offense their last 5, so do you really need to? 

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

BONUS Half Unit Play:  Oklahoma State +15 (Catching KU on 1 days rest after a massive upset of Oklahoma and now ranked #1)  Flat Spot and OSU beat KU 4 weeks ago by 19.  Just too many points even in revenge mode.

#853 - Bradley +18 to 18.5   4 EST Tip
Yes, taking one of the worst teams in the Valley on the road here, but since January 17th the Braves have not lost a game by this spread. The Braves are losing but playing much better ball the beginning and first half of the season.  Illinois St in a precarious spot here, off back to back wins against the Valleys best in Wichita St and Evansville.  How do you get up for Bradley and cover a big number?  This is a "spot bet" fading a team off back to back upset wins as a double digit dog.  The last game between these 2 was a 3 point win at Bradley 55-52 for ISU as an 11 point fav and this is just too many points in this scenario.
Play 1 Unit on Bradley

#503 - Texas +5.5   8:30 est Tip
Taking the Longhorns who gave Oklahoma all they wanted on Monday and have added rest time to prep for this game.  Iowa State also off an OT loss to Texas Tech on Hump Day,and most disturbing for ISU is 2 home losses already this season which is rare, and Texas is playing lights out defense and teams who play good defense give Iowa St trouble.  Too many points here against a team who is playing the best ball of the season and are well coached.  Shaka Smart will have Texas in this all night.
Play 1 Unit on Texas 

#559 - Oregon -7  4 est tip
One angle I look at despite Oregon being on the road, is good coaches and good teams lead by that coach off a loss.  Oregon got beat up wire to wire at Cal on Thursday and get to face a downtrodden Stanford team still missing one of their best players and Micheal Humphrey remains limited with a leg issue for Stanford.  Look for Oregon's forwards to dominate Stanford and look for Oregon to step it up against a team scoring 67 and allowing 79 their last 5 games.  Ducks get back on track.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon

#679 - Tennessee State +3  2 est tip
Revenge in small conference action.  Tenn. St on the road in the Ohio Valley and avenging a loss to Eastern Kentucky who shot over 63% from the floor in the first meeting and crushed TSU at home, but Tenn St is hot as hell right now, 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 games in conference action and they are road warrior going 5-0 ATS their last 5 roadies.  Eastern Kentucky is 0-5 ATS their last 5 home games in the Valley and 4-14 ATS their last 18 in OVC action.  Tennessee St off their best game of the season and looking for revenge, I will take the points here.
Play 1 Unit on Tennessee St

Dayton -1.5 to 2

Rhode Island is getting better but they are no match for the Flyers tonight who have 3 losses on the year and loaded for Bear.  Keep an eye on them in the tourneys, but Rhode Island has been beaten by damn near every good team they have played and Dayton is better than any of them.  Short and Sweet – Flyers by 8

Play 1 Unit on Dayton

#795 - Murray State -6.5    8 est tip 

Big game for the Racers here, Tourney seeding and division standing implications and they play a weak SIU – Edwardsville team who in the last 4 meetings Murray State has beaten by 64 points combined and they own a 16 point win over them already this season.  SUI has averaged 59 ppg on offense their last 5 and on the season allow 9 ppg more on defense than they score and they are ranked near the bottom in the NCAA on offense.  Murray State is in a 3 way for the West lead in the Ohio Valley and SUI is dead last in the conference overall with 1 win.  Murray State should come in here focused and guns blazing tonight, willing to lay it on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Murray St

UNDER 218.5 OK City / New Orleans

The Pelicans might be in trouble here as OK City is looking for their 40th win but I am not going to lay 11.  The last 10 games these two played only once did the combined total go over this line and the Pelicans have managed just 98 ppg their last 5 games.  I like the Under here.  Short and Sweet.  I have a 210 power number and that is a 8.5 point overlay.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#557 - Iowa State -2.5   9 est tip 

Yeah it looks like a square bet but Iowa States offense will get it done.  Tech shooting just 37% from the floor in their last 5 games and have dropped 8 out of their last 10 games.  ISU still battling for the Big 12 Tourney seeding here and I like their chances here with a winnable road game.  In Techs last game they had one starter over 8 points for the game.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

BONUS PLAY – HALF UNIT- Washington +9.5  

#713 Pitt +9 @ Miami

Pittsburgh has alternated win then lose in their last eight games. One might say that 4-4 in that stretch is not very good. Others might say 4-4 in last eight games and 6-4 overall in the ultra competitive ACC is great.

The one stat that I really love with this Pittsburgh squad is that they have yet to lose back to back games all season. That goes directly to the strength of their coach Jamie Dixon and the veteran leadership from this team. The top four leading scorers on Pitt are all either Juniors or seniors and they bring a ton of experience and leadership to this team.

Pitt shares the ball well averaging  18.5 assists per game which is tied for 5th in the nation. They are also one of the deepest teams in the nation with 12 players averaging at least nine minutes per game. That depth will serve Pitt well in the middle of a grueling ACC schedule.

Pitt has had an extra day to prepare for this one as they played Saturday and Miami played Super Bowl Sunday and then had to travel back to Florida. Look for a fresh Pitt team to play with energy and give Miami all they want in this one and stay well within the number and possibly even spring the road upset in this great spot.

1 Unit on Pitt 

#716 Kansas -7 vs West Virginia

Kansas went through a slight rough patch in the middle of January but has started playing back to that elite level that had them the #1 ranked team in the nation for most of the season. These two teams played back on January 13 with West Virginia winning 74-63 on their home court. Kansas will be ready and excited to return the favor at home here in this spot.

Allen Fieldhouse is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. If you don’t believe go back and watch the Oklahoma at Kansas triple overtime game from earlier this season. The crowd was so loud the announcers couldn’t hear each other speak to do the broadcast even with ear pieces in.

Kansas has outscored opponents 152-115 in their last two games and is playing at an elite level on both sides of the court. Senior PF Perry Ellis has scored 42 points in his last two games and has cored at least 20 points in three of the last five.

We mention Ellis here because the man that would be guarding Ellis much of the time Jonathan Holton will miss his second straight game due to suspension. Holton averages 23 minutes per game and is the Mountaineers second leading rebounder grabbing over 7.5 rebounds per game and possibly the teams top interior defender. With Holton out Ellis may have a big day inside for the Jayhawks.

Kansas has revenge on their mind and all the advantages of playing at their place and West Virginia being down a key cog. Look for Kansas to come out swinging and not let up until the final whistle and winning this one easily by double digits.

1 Unit on Kansas - Payback time. 

#718 Purdue-1  vs Michigan State  7 est

Purdue is 5-2 in their last seven games with the only losses coming to Iowa and Maryland on the road.  The Boilermakers have the best frontcourt in the conference with A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. The duo combines to score 25 points, grab 12 rebounds, and block 3 ½ shots per game. Their dominance is shown by the fact that Purdue is 5th in the nation in rebounds per game grabbing 42.5 per contest.

With such dominant post players they also defend the rim as good as any team in the BIG TEN and are giving up just 63 points per game on the season. They have won each of their last four home games by double digits and should be too much for Michigan State to handle in the low block here in this one.

Hammons has back to back double-doubles heading into this game and has scored 50 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in Purdue’s last two games.

Michigan State has won four straight games but the last three wins were against Northwestern, Rutgers, and a struggling Michigan squad. Denzel Valentine is averaging 20.6 points per game the last five games for Michigan State but he has a tendency to settle for jumpers when the going gets tough inside and Michigan State only has one other player that averages double digit scoring and that’s Gary Forbes.

If Purdue can force Michigan State to settle for Jumpers all day and exploit their mismatch advantages in the paint then this should be an easy win for the Boilermakers at home in this spot.

 1 Unit on Purdue

#523 - Okie State -2  7 est tip

Travis Ford’s Okie State this year not as good as past years additions but TCU off an ass kicking at the hands of might Kansas Saturday and they are just 7-57 SU in Big 12 Play and a bad basketball team.  They have no post presence and cannot rebound.  Okie State already pounded them once this year a month ago and held the Frogs to 48 points in a 21 point ass whipping laying 5.5 points and now lay just 2.  I like the number

Play 1 Unit on Okie State

BONUS HALF UNIT #525  Louisville +3.5   7 est tip

No depth for Duke and winning 3 out of their last 4 including NC State twice and GT does not impress me.  Duke is facing a red hot team on a mission to prove their worth after announcing they are not playing post season ball.  The Cards are flat out a better team, even in a tough venue to play in tonight.  The Cards remember last year’s 11 point home loss to Duke where they managed 53 points, they are out for revenge. The Cards defense is vastly better and remember before Duke beat NC State at home they dropped their last 2 home games top lesser teams than the Cards, and Duke on Big Monday spotlight games have never performed well, 5-15 ATS on Monday games their last 20.  Grayson Allen for Duke is not 100% and I am aware of the Cards “questionable Status” for Lee but still like them, Duke is a fade team when laying numbers to good teams this season guys.

Louisville  - 1/2 Unit

#101 - Carolina -5.5   6:30 EST Kickoff

Yeah, shoulda bet this at -4 or 4.5 but I did not know the public would pound Carolina like they did, but they are BY FAR the better team.  Yes it is a square side and this is a ton of points in the Super Bowl but Carolina is flat out a TD to 10 points better.  The Panthers just lit up 2 of the best defenses in the NFL outside of Denver for 80 points.  Cam Newton is going to prove difficult to defend for Wade Philips and a great defense here.  While this is a bunch of no name guys on offense outside of TE Olsen, they are effective and have great chemistry and role play well,  and make big plays when Newton buys time in the pocket.  Something Brady and Big Ben were unable to do against Denver’s defense.   Carolina just finds ways to pick apart good defenses.  Denver has a great defense, but an offense that struggles in the red zone, and a team overall who has really struggled in their last 3 games to win, and quite frankly their red zone offense sucks, and they will struggle with one of the better defenses they have seen in months.  I am a Manning fan, but he is washed up and a shell of his old self.  The Panthers are fearless, opportunistic, have the best record in the NFL at 17-1 which is no accident, and have the league MVP at QB.   Square side, yes, but the right side, just cannot take Manning and an inefficient offense against Panther defense to cover the number although it is a good number for a dog in a big game.  I think Panthers by 10.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Totals Play – 1 Unit on the UNDER 45

SAME GAME TEASE – 6 Point Side / Total Tease – Tease Carolina to +.5 and Tease the Total UP to 51 and take the UNDER.

PROPS - ALL LINES ARE FROM CG TECHNOLOGY IN LAS VEGAS – You can find these Props at almost any book but the moneyline might be slightly different – these are common props found almost everywhere, some of the numbers might vary slightly.  All are 1 Unit Plays with the exception of the Top Play first half line play.

1.        TOP PROP BET – Panthers -3 / First Half Line – Panthers get out of the gate in a hurry, especially in their last 2 games and I expect that to continue.  2 UNIT PLAY -120

2.       Will Greg Olsen (Panthers) Score a TD?  YES at +120

3.       Total combined Interceptions OVER 1.5 at -130 – You have 2 good secondary’s guys.  I think Manning will have 2!

4.       Ted Ginn Jr. (Panthers)  OVER 2 receptions -115

5.       Greg Olsen (Panthers) OVER 73.5 yards receiving -120 – Cam Newton’s go to guy – they surely are not going to use him as a decoy!

6.       Peyton Manning (Bronco’s) UNDER 34.5 pass attempts – 115 .   Lots of 3 and outs and Denver WANTS to run the ball. 

AND FOR A LONGSHOT – Play a half unit on – YES there will be a safety +700!  

Thanks for all your biz this season in the NFL.  Over 65% all in, close top 70% with Teasers added.  Good Year of profits and lots of top plays cashing too.  Best of Luck, see ya next August for NFLX!  Tony G 

#664 Ole Miss +3 vs Vanderbilt

Vandy is coming off their best win of the season Thursday, a 77-60 drubbing of #8 Texas A&M. Yet after playing one of the most physical and strong teams in the nation on Thursday night they must now travel down to Mississippi and play a tough Ole Miss squad on Super Bowl eve on the road and lay points.

In the stock market there is an old saying “buy low and sell high” and that applies here to this line. Ole Miss is just 4-5 in conference this season as they have struggled at times. Yet they are 14-8 overall and have played strong at times as well and their losses have come against strong teams in LSU, Kansas State, South Carolina, Florida, and Seton Hall.

While they have struggles against the top of the conference they have won back to back conference games and appear to be turning the season around.  Star Guard Stefan Moody has scored at least 24 points in the last three conference games he has played in.

Vandy’s stock is sky high after a nationally televised win over Texas A&M that finally saw them look like the team that was ranked in the top 25 to start the season. Yet with short rest , after a physical game and on a challenging weekend for coaches with the Super Bowl going it seems like a favorable spot at home for the Ole Miss rebels to spring the upset on their home court Saturday night.

1 Unit on Ol Miss

#639 North Carolina -3  @ Notre Dame

North Carolina is coming off just their third loss of the season after getting their 12-game win streak snapped Monday night at Louisville. They have had five straight days to think about that loss and will be looking to take out their frustrations on Notre Dame Saturday night.

The Tar Heels are averaging 85 points per game this season which is 8th best in the nation and are 19th in the nation averaging 41.4 rebounds per game and 7th in the nation in assists per game at almost 19 per contest.

Notre Dame has lost 2 of their last 3 games with the only win coming against Wake Forest at home. They lost to Syracuse and Miami on the road by a combined score of 160-136. The Irish are 6-18 all time vs North Carolina and catch the Tar Heels off extra rest with a chip on their shoulder coming off a rare loss. Notre Dame is 2-4 on the season against teams that either are or have been ranked this season and may not have the firepower to hang with a fired up Tar Heels team Saturday.

#585 South Carolina +8.5 @ Texas A&M  8 est

I know this seems like a horrible pro spot with Texas A&M coming off a terrible game in which they got whipped by Vandy 77-60. Yet there is also a trend of teams that play in tough games Thursday night, then travel, and play early on Saturday not playing at peak levels. That is where we find ourselves here.

Texas A&M played a nationally televised game against a tough Physical Vanderbilt team on Thursday night, then traveled all the way back to Texas and now has to play another physical team in South Carolina on Saturday with an early start. To make matters worse here for the Aggies is that South Carolina played and lost on the road Tuesday night to Georgia and should be fresh and ready for this one.

South Carolina is 18-3 on the season and has not lost consecutive games all year. In fact they have had at least two wins in between each of their losses so they have been a strong rebound team all season. After both of their previous losses they won their next game by nine and 10 points respectively.

There is no doubt that Texas A&M is the more talented team here but we get extra rest with a great game planning coach in Frank martin that has seen his team perform admirably off losses this season already. The Game cocks should have be able to stay well within this generous number and if Texas A&M shows lingering effects of Thursday night’s tough loss then South Carolina can spring the upset here.

1 Unit on South Carolina

#531 Boston College +21 @ Louisville

Be careful with the number here and make sure you get more than 20 as this one will be moving down. Normally one of two things happen when a team makes an announcement that they are imposing a post season ban. They either get this us against the world mentality and go out and try and show everyone how good they are (Ohio State in football three years ago, SMU this season) or they go into the tank.

In this case I think it is more likely to be the later for a couple simple reasons and they are really strong. First off is that the top two players on Louisville Trey Lewis and Damion Lee are both seniors that transferred out of losing programs to play at Louisville for this one single season for the sole purpose of playing in and possibly making a deep NCAA tournament run. Those hopes are now gone. The sole purpose those two players had for coming to Louisville is now gone. Their entire motivation is now gone.

The other strong reason here is that this did not happen early in or before the season started but right smack in the middle of conference play 22 games into the season. Louisville is coming off their best win of the season defeating #2 North Carolina to move to 18-4 and put themselves into prime spot for NCAA tournament seeding.

It is going to be extremely difficult to motivate two graduate transfer students that will not be there next season that the program is fine and will be back strong next year. They don’t care. They only came here to play in an NCAA tournament this year. There is no next year for them. 

Boston College is by far the worst team in the ACC at 0-9 in the conference and 7-15 overall but they have been above average on the defensive end anyway allowing just 69.1 points per game this season and this is a huge spread. If Louisville doesn’t show up here and the team is as demoralized as one may expect in this situation then the 23 point cushion should give us more than enough breathing room to cover this number.

1 Unit on BC

Short on time - 1 Unit on Celtics +7.  Brad Stevens will out coach Lue in this game.  The Cavs are inconsistent and this is a bad matchup for them.   The low post game for Boston will keep them in this all night long and this is too many points. Boston 10-3 their last 13 and they just do not get blown out.  Last time they got beat by a double digit number was mid-December.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

NY Knicks +4.5

Fading Pistons in a tough spot here.  5th game in 7 days and down 20 last night made a valiant comeback that fell short and now they tee it up again.  I love fading teams in the 4th or 5th game in a week or less, and they are simply exhausted.  This is their 1`4th game in 23 days!  WOW.  The Knicks 0-2 their last 2 against quality opponents, I like them here big time.

Play 1 Unit on NY Knicks

#725 - Green Bay -3   7 est

On the road here at Northern Kentucky, a team Green Bay has beaten by 16 already.  Green Bay may have one of the highest if the highest scoring offenses in CBB at 85 ppg on the season, and they have ripped off 94 ppg their last 5 games and every starter in their last game was in double digits scoring.  Northern Kentucky, while they face a bad defense tonight, they simply cannot trade punches on the scoreboard, and have only covered 2 out of 8 games at home this year and allowed Green Bay 86 in the first meeting.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

#559 - Ol Miss -3  9 est

Mizzou is a bad team gents, and SEC Bottom feeder right now.  The program is plagued by lack of talent and any depth at all on the bench, and quite frankly the coaching is less than stellar as the new head coach has yet to develop any team chemistry after almost a year and half.  The Tigers just lost by 14 at home as a 2 point fav against Miss. St, and in their last 3 home games have lost by a total of 50 points!  Just unreal.  The Tigers have covered just 3 games out of their last 12 games in the SEC.  Mizzou has managed a paltry 59 ppg on offense their last 5 games as compared to the Rebels who are scoring 73 ppg their last 5 games on offense. 

Play 1 Unit on Ol Miss

#541 - Arkansas +8

Fading Florida in s scheduling spot, and a spot bet.  Gators off a upset win Saturday over West Virginia and have Kentucky on deck.  Arkansas is a competitive well coached team and they can win this game outright.  Arky lost to Georgia on the road by 3 in OT and lost a good LSU team by 2 on the road.  This is just too many points.  Florida has some injury issues with 3 contributors questionable tonight as well. 

Play 1 Unit on Arkansas

#539 - Evansville +1  7 est

Short number here as Evansville is off a bad and brutal beating this weekend to the hands of Mo Valley powerhouse Wichita State who has beaten every team the last month in the Mo Valley by double digits.  I like them here to bounce back in a underdog role based on how they looked Saturday.  Northern Iowa is not as strong as recent years, not by a longshot and are just 1 game over .500, and in their last 5 games their offense has stunk it up, they have managed just 59 ppg their last 5 games gents and allowed 61, and shot just 39% from the floor.  Evansville a 70% Road Cover team this season.

Play 1 Unit on Evansville

# 735 - Clemson -1.5 to -2   8 est tip 

Short number here for the Tigers.  Yes they are off a loss however Wake is regressing, especially on offense, scoring just 63 ppg their last 5 games and we are taking a Clemson team who went 6-2 in January and are on a nice roll, with an impressive resume, including and 8-1 ATS record their last 9 games.  Wake is 2-8 ATS their last 10 at home.  Look for Clemson to get back on track tonight with a short number here.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson 

#537 - Mercer -1.5   7 est tip
Mercer defeated this team by 19 points back on the 2nd of January laying 5.5 points and the match ups here favor Mercer who is in the hunt for a conference championship this season, standing at 16-6 and off back to back wins.  Samford defense is not good, and they have dropped 3 games in a row to lesser opponents than Mercer and lost 5 out of their last 6.  
Play 1 Unit on Mercer
BONUS Half  Unit Play on (# 531 )Monmouth -1.5 - Siena's top shooting guard and 12 ppg scorer is out and Monmouth already hammered these guys by 16 Two Weeks ago

#864 - Evansville +4    4 est tip 

A live home dog here.  The Purple Aces score 80 ppg at ho me this season and allow 63, and they have dropped 6 straight to WSU and have not beat the Shockers since February of 2013!   This is their nest shot to upend the Shockers and they have a 3 point loss on the road to WSU back on the 6th of this month on the road.  WSU is winning games by double digits but have had a soft schedule this is their toughest test on the road yet this season.  Home court worth 2 points here and we are catching over a 3 pointer in a game where the home team has hit better than 51% from the floor in their last 5 games and hit better than 48% from 3 point range in their last 5 games and have a nice advantage on the boards on offense.

Play 1 Unit on Evansville 

Play a half unit on a red hot Oregon team tonight.  Oregon -2 for a HALF UNIT.  

Memphis -3   8 est

Sacramento has lost it on defense, and this is their 3rd straight road game, and 4th game in 6 days, always a go against spot.  Look for Randolph and Gasol from Memphis to contain Cousins, and bear in mind the Kings are giving up points like crazy and have not won in Memphis in over 6 years!  Bad spot for the Kins and Memphis off a massive blowout win on Thursday.  They should rack the Kings at home tonight.  

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

#691 - Tennessee St -3  / 5:30 est

Playing some good ball right now in the Ohio Valley at 5-2 in conference play, they take on a bad Jacksonville St team today after back to back losses to the 2 top teams in the conference.  I look for a serious bounce back today.  This is a big team, athletic and deep on the bench and a team getting better.   This line is low because of back to back losses for TSU but they are a beast on the road at 25-8 ATS their last 33 road games.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee State