#719 - Central Michigan +7   * 7 EST

Again we have a team who can flat out score (86 ppg) on the road against a team with a losing record laying a big number in conference action.  CMU has plenty of firepower on offense despite Buffalo’s 66 ppg allowed at home to hang within this number.  CMU playing with double revenge as Buffalo swept them last year and Buffalo 2-4 SU their last 6 and CMU off back to back wins.

Play 1 Unit on Central Michigan

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY:  #733 – Maryland +2.5  *7est 

#525 - Okie State -1.5  *9 EST

OU was buried against Florida this weekend and failed to reach 55 points on offense and they face the #1 offense in the Big 12 in Okie State who quite frankly simply has a better team, better players, and vastly more offense.  Lon Kruger is rebuilding this season and while neither of these teams is going to contend for a Big 12 title, Okie State is 5-8 points better here.  Okie State playing with 7-time revenge and have not beaten OU since Feb. of 2013.  Think they want this one?   The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in 3 pointers made, OU is second to last!   I will take the more consistent scoring team who no doubt is highly motivated

Play 1 Unit on Okie State 

#863 - Illinois State -7 to 7.5 max    *4 EST 

The Purple Aces are having issues scoring, 58 ppg their last 5, and they are playing the top team in the conference here.  Illinois St is ALLOWING just 57 ppg their last 5!  Need I say more.  Evansville has dropped 7 straight games - and ISU is a 60% ATS cover team on the road this season so far.

Play 1 Unit on Illinois State 

Under 211 Knicks and Hawks - *3:30 Est

Amazingly the Over cashed in every single NBA game on Saturday, WOW.  Atlanta is 8-2 on Unders the last 10 games, and play good defense at home and the Knicks offense is iffy at best and Rose is out for this game as well.  I do not see this going much over 200.  My power rating is 204.5, that is a huge overlay against the spread here.  In the Knicks last 26 games, only 7 have went Over the total.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#604 - Kentucky -7   *6:15 EST 

Kansas beat up and depleted in depth with recent suspensions and if they got waxed on the road at West Virginia what is Kentucky going to do to them.  Not sold on Kansas being ranked this high, they exposed by a good team again.  Kentucky has won their last 4 home games by 98 points, that is 24 ppg spread per game.  While Kansas looked like a public take here, I will lay it and go against the grain.  Kentucky has better athletes and are deeper and if Kansas gets in foul trouble Kentucky can pull away. 

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky  

#555 - Loyola Chicago -1.5  *2 EST 

Too much offense for Indiana State to contend with even at home, and ISU plays little defense.  Short number on the road where Loyola Chicago has struggled but this is a very beatable opponent.

1 Unit on Loyola Chicago

#539 - St. Bonaventure +6.5  *2 EST

Not sold on Rhode Island laying this number.  St. Bonny's has been a rock solid road team all season at 7-2 ATS and they are 9-1 ATS in this series, and have the better offense and Rhode Island stinks at the free throw line as well, just 58% in their last 5 games.,  This will be a close one. 

Play 1 Unit on St. Bonaventure

#883 - Wisconsin GREEN BAY +7.5  *9 EST

No idea why Oakland is laying his many as their home court is not overwhelming, as both these teams are explosive on offense and GB in their last 5 games is averaging 77 ppg, and Oakland just 71 a game in the same timeframe and are shooting just 21% from 3-point range.  GB playing with double revenge after getting swept last year, allowing Oakland 111 points in both games. Oakland in a recent game lost to Wright State by 21 points and Green Bay beat that same by 17.  High scoring, GB hangs around, grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay  

LA Lakers +13

While the Jazz have been on a hot run, they have played a brutal and busy schedule and even though LA played and covered in Portland last night, I am not laying 13 points with a team whose offense does not even average 100 ppg.  

Play 1 Unit on the Lakers to cover the number. 

#513 - Golden State -10  *8 EST 

Curry back in home state, off a loss, Golden State clearly the better team and although the last game of a road trip, I have the feeling, based on numerous things that Charlotte gets crushed here and they play better defense than they did against Miami, which has been publicly stated.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

#552 - Illinois State -13   *8 EST

The Top Team in the conference will smoke Indiana State tonight.  We are catching them at home as well here which is a bonus, hell I would lay this on the road if I had to.  Illinois State is the Top team in the conference at 8-0, they are the best defensive team in the conference and second on offense.  They already beat this team on the road by 19 and are playing better now!  In their last 5 games Illinois State is allowing just 56 ppg, that is 22 ppg better than Indiana State. Bear in mind Illinois State beat Wichita St in here by double digits.

Play 2 Units on Illinois State

#713 - Auburn +9.5   *6:30 EST 

Not sold on South Carolina laying this number as Auburn and Bruce Pearl are scoring some points right in, as I tend to look at recent 5 games trend this time of the season, and while the Tiger defense is not all that good, they are scoring damn near 80 ppg their last 5 games and South Carolina’s shooting average is 37% from the floor in their last 5 games, and Auburn does hit the defensive glass better than the Gamecocks who are off a 16 point beat down against Kentucky in their last game.   I think this is lower scoring tonight and will bring the big points into play. Also PJ Dozier is very unlikely to play tonight for SC, and he averages 14 ppg!   

Play 1 Unit on Auburn

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY:   Kansas +3.5  

#519 - NC State +16   *7 EST

This road trip is a 20 minute bus ride across town in Raleigh and I expect NC State to give 100%, and while it might not be enough, this is a huge number for Duke, who is featured a lot on Mondays and are 5-15 ATS their last 20 Monday games.  Add in the fact Duke carries a premium number always, they have managed just 2 covers in their last 8 games and Grayson Allen is not 100% for this one.  NC State is well coached and will bring all they have here, and bear in mind NC State has not lost by more than 10 points to Duke since March of 2015.  Duke the better team, but in a rival game and not playing all that well, I will grab the big points and the Wolfpack here.

Play 1 Unit on NC State 

Virginia Tech +6

Say what?  Clemson has lost 6 straight, and yes 4 of those losses are to ranked teams, however this is too many points.  I have these two teams even, and although the Hokies have not played all that well lately, I like them here as Clemson is off a 32 point beat down against Louisville and no doubt the Tigers confidence is shaken and they have no business laying this type of number.   The Key in this game is rebounds as Tech has some good big guys that hit the boards and Clemson is a very undersized teams.  That means cheap buckets inside favor VT here.  

Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech  

#311 / 312 - OVER  60 to 60.5 and take to 61 if need be by weekend - it will move.   Atlanta / Green Bay *3 EST 

Yes it is high and for a reason.  This is a no brainer even for the novice sports bettor.  Two of the hottest QB’s in the game who can destroy an opponent with their arm, Aaron Rodgers is super human, Matty Ice is an MVP Player playing at his highest level ever and these 2 prolific QB's will trade punches all day long.  The Green Bay defense will not matchup here, WR Jones is un-coverable, and we have already seen these 2 teams light it up once this year and both will go for broke all day long in order to get to the Super Bowl.  Atlanta is LOADED and the best offense in football, their defense is below average and Green Bay damn near is the same story.  Side play a close call here but the Total is a No Brainer.   If anyone thinks this will be a defensive struggle, think again.

Play 2 Units on the OVER

BONUS PLAYS on me!    

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Points added - Tease Green Bay to +11 and tease Pittsburgh to +12 - 1 Full Unit  

HALF UNIT on Green Bay +5.   Just think it is a 3 point game one way or the other guys...close call so half unit max.  QB Rodgers proved he can score with 35 seconds left, this one could be a nail biter and QB Ryan has fallen in big games.    

#663 - Southern Illinois -3  *8 EST 

Tricked out line?  Well I am buying it, as Northern Iowa is not a good team this season after massive losses to graduation.  UNI is 3-13 ATS dating back to last season, and they have managed to score 57 ppg on the road this season playing a team with a winning record, who is 6-2 ATS their last 8 as a favorite and scores 75 ppg at home. NIU has won their last 2 games at home in a row, however they are a different animal on the road and they are catching a ticked off SIU team off an brutal OT loss at Drake, where they played badly.  Good setup for a better team who is better than the spread here.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Illinois 

#239 - Tulsa -6  *1 EST 

Cheap number for the Golden Hurricanes against free falling South Florida, even on the road as South Florida has lost their last 6 games by a total 14 ppg, all double digit losses except one. Too much offense from Tulsa here.

Play 1 Unit on Tulsa

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY - #563 - Illinois +8  *2:15 EST 

Under 238 - Golden State  - Houston

This line is flat out inflated and there is a reason GS scores a ton at home, they shoot well in their house no doubt, but they are 1-10 ATS on Overs their last 11 on the road.  Harden - Curry - Durant are garnering a lot of respect in this one and the huge score in the last meeting was an OT game.  

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Richmond +12

What the hell is Dayton laying 12 for in this game, always a battle between these 2 teams and Richmond is 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 in the series.  The Spiders are scoring 77 ppg their last 5, 7 points better than Davidson and the defenses are damn near even, and even the season long stats are damn near even, and Dayton has a guard out in this one averaging 9 ppg.  Too many points.  Richmond 5-1-1 ATS on the road this year and in their last 5 games are averaging 51% from the floor. 

2 Units on Richmond! 

#561 - Kansas State +3  *9 EST

K State played 2 brutal back to back games including Baylor and they are a great offensively, while Oklahoma State could not stop grandma with a shopping cart at Costco on defense.  Okie State has dropped 5 straight and K State gets a team they can beat here, should have a big night scoring, take the points.  OSU has gave up 84 ppg their last 5 and K State should have beat Kansas and Baylor.  K State better than their record indicates.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas State – Go Cats! 

#579 / 580 - South Dakota / Oral Roberts OVER 150.5  *8 EST

Oral Roberts is giving up 88 ppg at home, and scoring around 80 at home, South Dakota is a hot team for sharps in Vegas.  South Dakota a better team and 14-3-1 ATS this season and this is a very tricked out line.  Oral Roberts and SD have went over the total in every single game since 2011 and OR plays no defense what so ever and their last 6 games have went over the total as well. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

#521 /522 - Missouri St / Indiana State OVER 140.5   *7 EST

These two are Over machines and their last 2 meetings were both OT games and both over the total in regulation.  MSU is 5-1 on Overs on the road and 11-5 on Overs overall. Indiana State is 5-1 on Overs at home and 12-4 on Overs with one push on the year.  Should be another shootout with Mo State gunning the 3-ball and they have hit 42% their last 5 games from the 3-point line.  Both teams also good free throw teams.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

#747 - Wichita State -11 to 11.5   *9 EST 

Seriously, WSU off their first conference loss and steaming mad about it, and Evansville in free fall, losing 4 straight and lost by 11 and 12 points to far lesser teams at home their last 2.  The Shockers offense is head and shoulders above the Aces, look for a 20 point win here.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

=

#545 -546 - Over 154 to 155 - Kansas / Iowa State   *9 EST

Always a shootout in this matchup -and both teams off weary draining games Saturday which makes a defense tired -  and the Total has flown over 10 out of the last 14 times these two met, and the Cyclones can flat out knock down shots at home.  Kansas has scored below 81 points JUST ONCE Since December 3rd gents and this one here is run and gun, typical Big 12 ISU / KU shootout.  Kansas Over the Total in 7 out of their last 10 games.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 154 

Cleveland +8

You going to give me this many with the best team in the NBA, or at least one of the best, the second best or best team is who they are playing.  Good number here as Cleveland was stinking it up last week, but they got back on track on offense scoring 120 against the Kings and LeBron and company get complacent in certain scenario's, they will not here tonight and it should be a good game, as they have had the Warriors number.....no secret there.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland  

Dallas -4 to 4.5      *4:40 EST Kick 

Dallas is a complete team.  Good running game, the Best OL in football, QB Prescott is damn good, multiple weapons at WR and they have a defense that is going make the one dimensional offense of Green Bay earn every yard and point.  You cannot win this late in the season with little or no running game, proven fact and Green Bay has none. Green Bay has been on a tear but running up wins in their crappy division with the Lions, Bears and Vikings has not impressed me.  Their best WR Nelson is out for the game, their secondary is so/so and their defense is below average and Dallas have already manhandled the Packers on the road this year.  Add in the fact the Giants imploded last week against Green Bay in a game they were dominating, dropped passes for TD's, giving up a hail Mary, turnovers, and again I am not impressed although we all agree Rodgers is hot and dangerous, you cannot beat Dallas at home who has rest with a make shift passing attack no matter who is QB.  Dallas is poised for a Super Bowl this year guys, got to ride them here, as Green Bays demerits catch up o them here.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.....BONUS opinion on the OVER in this game, there will be some scoring.

2 team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit - Points Added.  Tease Dallas to +1.5  and tease the Steelers to +7 against KC.  

Pats / Texans UNDER 44.5  *8:15 EST 

I cannot lay double digits in a Playoff game, and New England will do most the scoring here, and I can easily see them having 30+ points and Houston will have some success on offense but not much.  I took the over in their game last week and cashed for free against Oakland when the whole world was on the under in that one.  The Pats scored 27 on them in September with Brissett at QB (Houston scored zero).  The Pats will do what they have to do to win and that it is here and Bellichek will not run it up on his old fellow coach and buddy O’Brien here.  With a couple of weeks off it will take the Pats a quarter to get back in sync. Oswiller running that offense against this Pats defense produced 0 points the last time, maybe they get 10 here - maybe.  Pats have not been lighting it up against decent defenses either.  

Play 1 Unit on the Under

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Seattle to +11 and Tease the Pats DOWN to -9 for 1 Unit.  

#647 - Wichita State -2.5   *8 EST 

The offense of of the Shockers here is the difference, averaging 82 ppg.  The Shockers on road games are 3-0 SU this season and although they are a horrible Saturday ATS team, just 1-7 ATS their last 8 Saturday games, they are not as usual carrying a huge number in this one.  The Redbirds are no doubt the second best team in the Mo Valley and spread it around well, but WSU is shooting 50% from the floor, 40% from 3 point range and scoring 87 ppg their last 5 games!  

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State -   Might be worth A LOOK  for a half unit on the OVER 139.  

#301 - Seattle +5  *4:35 EST

When looking at Atlanta ask yourself a question, who have they played?  The last good team Atlanta played was Kansas City 5 weeks ago and they lost at home.  Think about it.  Their defense stinks, but their offense is a rock star.  They have wins over Tampa, New Orleans, LA Rams, San Fran, Carolina, Lost to Philly who sucks, and lost to San Diego in here as well – just some of their last 10 games.  Seattle is battle tested with a tougher schedule, and also beat the Pats on the road this year, and quite frankly they are doing what beats up the Dirty Birds, playing good defense and pounding the rock.

Play 1 Unit on Seattle

Virginia -2.5  *noon EST

Clemson off a 22 point spread loss against GT (I had GT) the other night and I am all over the Cavs here.  Clemson offense way too sparatic.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY - #557 - Nebraska +9  *2 EST

Huskers sneaky good and although missing a key player here, Michigan is laying too many here, grab the points.

Play 1/2 Unit on Nebraska

#717 / 718 - OVER 211 Cleveland / Sacramento  *10:30 EST 

We are catching a pissed off Cavs team coming off back to back losses here and sputtering on offense in those 2 losses (86 and 92 points), despite averaging 101 ppg in their last 5.  Also this is the Cavs 5th road game in a row since the 6th of this Month so I expect their defense to be weary here and allow the Kings, who are off a big win against Detroit, to score 100+ and for Cousins to continue his stellar play.  Look for King James and company to put it up tonight on the scoreboard as they will be dialed in to improve their offense against a team giving up  107 ppg their last 5.  Also the Cavs put up a 120 in each of the last 2 times they played the Kings.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#516 - Georgia Tech +9.5  *7 EST

I will take home points here with a team who has beaten North Carolina this year, and Clemson has dropped 2 straight against ranked opponents, but the defenses are even and while Clemson scores more on offense, no road win comes easy and GT i8s capable of winning a game like this, I will gladly take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech 

#760 - Creighton -5.5   *9 EST 

Blue Jays at home, they lead the nation in FG% and that also includes 3’s, at nearly 43% and their lone loss was to top ranked Nova on this Floor.  I took Creighton laying a small number Saturday and they were a no sweat winner, they simply have too much offense for Butler here on their home floor.  Amazing their 7-footer Patton can also hit threes and also keep defenses honest by going low post and it opens up their perimeter game – very hard to defend.  Butler is slow and methodical, but look for Creighton to dictate to their fast pace and for their backcourt to shine.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

#529 - Ohio U -1   *7 EST

Popular with the sharps in Vegas, Ohio takes on Buffalo, and the Bulls defense is going to give the Ohio offense plenty of chances to cover this number, which is currently less than a bucket.  Buffalo giving up 76 ppg their last 5 games, they have lost 6 out of their last 10 and in the last 5 games the Bobcats are shooting 48% from the floor.

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U 

#151 - Clemson +6.5 to 7   *8 EST January 9, 2017 

Revenge is not something to take lightly. Clemson was the better team last year and lost a tight one.   Clemson has the best player on the field in QB Watson.  His is countered with a true freshman who just lost his mentor when Kiffen was fired. Clemson is the only team in America that can test the Tide defense, and trust me, it is a good one without question.  Losing Kiffen is a small hit at OC, but Alabama has time to adjust and his replacement is no stranger to the players, so I am not putting a ton of stock into that.  Bottom Line - The ACC all Bowl season for the most part kicked ass and impressed and the SEC was a joke – Alabama had a patsy schedule based on who they played and how those teams fared in bowl games.  You have the best player in college football at QB in my opinion, not LaMar Jackson, and that is Watson for Clemson with speed at RB to attack the edges and they have receivers that will test the secondary with success and the Tiger OL can manage the DL of Alabama.  A mobile QB with all these weapons’ and a great OL is not something the Tide have seen all year.  Yes Clemson was in some tight games this year, but in my opinion they were bored and complacent in many of those simply because they knew they were better, and in big spots they stepped up.  They are not intimidated by Alabama, many other teams were.  Clemson has the moxie and talent to win this game, and I will gladly the points.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson

Thanks you for all your College Ball Business this season.  I have had better years but finished strong.  Thanks – TG

#707- St Johns +6.5 to 7  *6:30 EST 

Georgetown in free fall and laying this number makes no sense to me.  While I usually see a line and stay away from it because it stinks to high heaven, the Red Storm have been playing some good ball, and the yearlong stats on off / def between these 2 is damn near even.  GT has dropped 4 straight and this is always a rivalry type game between 2 storied Big East teams, and St Johns has the better offense and are scoring 84 ppg on the road.

Play 1 Unit on St Johns

#531 - Wichita St -10  *4 EST 

Laying 10 on the road is always tricky in CBB, no doubt, but it is warranted here as Northern Iowa is way down this year, and they have covered just 1 spread out of their last 11 games and their offense is averaging just 55 ppg thier last 5 while the Shockers are averaging 87 ppg and scored 90 against Drake and 100 against Bradley in their last 2 games,  NIU cannot trade punches on the scoreboard and these two teams are a mis match in favor of the visiting Shockers today who are red hot. 

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

#106 - Steelers -10   *1:05 EST

Bear in mind most teams that win in the playoffs, also cover the spread.  While 10 points looks like a lot of points, and it is, Pittsburgh should destroy Miami.  Miami has won with smoke and mirrors all year, and frankly in 8 of their wins, it could have gone either way.  The Fish let Carson Palmer look like Joe Montana when they played them, they should have lost to the Browns, the list goes on and on, and frankly they are one the worst 10 win teams I have seen in years.  The Steelers are a peak performance, avenging a 15 loss to the Dolphins, and bear in mind Big Ben went down to injury in that game, and Pittsburgh is playing the best football of anyone perhaps outside of Atlanta right now, and have weapons all over the place on offense.  At home is worth 4 points in this game, cold weather and a team from South Beach with a career second string QB pulling the strings.

Play 2 Units on Pittsburgh

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) – Tease Steelers DOWN to -4 and Tease the NY Giants UP to +10.5 for 1 Unit.  

#101 - Oakland +3.5 to 4    *4:35 EST Saturday 

Leave them for dead on the roadside without QB Carr huh?  Conner Cook has to start, oh well, they are done. Not so fast.   They might be done after this game, but they are a live dog here in my opinion.  Oakland has a mammoth OL, a stud RB and two of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL at WR, and they are better than the Texans.  Already beat them this year.  Last year in the post season Kansas City shut out Houston in this same game and blew them away in here.  Oswiller at QB is average at best to flat out bad at times, he was benched for a guy that was 3rd string last year!  Houston’s defense will contain a pedestrian Houston attack on offense who tried to beat Tennessee last week leaving starters in through the 4th quarter and still could not win, and that was Matt Cassel pulling the strings for the Titans in that one.  Whole world on Houston here, not me. Del Rio has all week for Cook to get coached up.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) – Half a Unit – Tease Oakland to +9.5 to 10 and Tease Seattle down to -2

#753 - Creighton -4    *2 EST 

5 Time revenge for the Blue jays as Providence has won 5 straight against a Creighton team who will be dialed  here.  Providence has a good defense but Creighton's #10 ranked NCAA offense will test them and beat them in my opinion.  Too much offense for the Fryars and Creighton's MvcDermott will have his kids coached up for this one. 

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

BONUS LATE STEAM :  HALF UNIT -   #851 - Loyola Chicago -2.5 to 3  (playing at Bradley at  8 EST) 

Loyola Marymount -3

Pepperdine has lost 9 straight games and have not seen their home floor in quite some time, but it will not matter tonight against Marymount who is an average to slightly above average team at best this year but they are playing a team who has allowed 84 ppg their last 10 games and are a funnel to the basket on defense and LMU should put up a ton of points here and cover the number with ease.

Play 1 Unit on Loyola Marymount  

Bucks -2.5

Numerous Players, Sharp Player sin Vegas took the Bucks against the Knicks tyonight - I am jumping on board as one sharp bettor in Vegas did a max bet at a book and I know about it.  That said, the Knicks have dropped 5 straight and as usual are a mess, and have lost 8 out of 10 and their defense is deplorable.  Bucks have the better defense and better wing players as well.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee

#538 - Loyola Chicago -2   *7 EST 

Northern Iowa was the once the class of this conference but have lost a ton to graduation and rank 235th in offense ranking at Ken Pom and on the road the Panthers numbers are horrific this year.  They are scoring 53 PPG and Allowing 75 PPG!  Wow.  Loyola of Chicago is 10-5 SU, scoring 69 ppg at home and they are 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS on their home floor.  Looks too good to be true at a cheap number but I am drinking the kool aid on this one, and I will take the 4th ranked offense in the Mo Valley at home against a team who cannot score on the road and plays bad defense. NIU has dumped 4 in a row and after Loyola laid an egg in their last game at Illinois State and got blown out badly on their home floor, I expect them to bounce back tonight and bear in mind Illinois State is the 2nd best team in this conference behind Wichita State in my opinion.  

Play 1 Unit on Loyola of Chicago  

Ol Miss +14.5

This line is perplexing, but not sold on the Gators laying this big of number against a team who scores more than them, are better rebounders,  has a better free throw % than them and in their last 5 games has an equal defense in points allowed.  My power rating says 7 points difference even on the road, and we are getting 14.5.

Play 2 Units on Ol Miss  

#280 - Penn State +7 to 8     * 5 EST

This line is jumping up, and after I have watched every bowl game, I have come to the conclusion that 2 conferences were over rated this year big time, the SEC and the PAC 12.  The PAC 12 runner up got beat by 30 by Okie State and they have not looked good in any bowl game outside of Stanford playing an average North Carolina team.  That said USC was the talk of the town and many broadcasters winning 6 straight with a new QB, Sam Darnold, who is a freshman with tons of promise and upside and no doubt he will play well here, but bottom line USC beat only 2 bowl teams out of the dismal PAC 12 in that 6 game run.  Penn State on the other hand won the Big 10 Championship against a good Wisconsin team and managed  38 points in the title game against a great Badger defense, and that tells me QB McSorley and company for PSU can put points up here against a USC defense that is not as good as many Penn State has faced this year.  The Lions are an unreal on defense away from home allowing 18 ppg, and they average more points on offense than USC,  and quite frankly have the better coach and are playing the no respect card here and feel slighted they were left out of the final 4 as a conference champion and want to prove something.  I think RB Barkley makes play action passing for Penn State click, they balance the offense more, and play physical and make this a hell of a game and can stay within the number and possibly win it SU.

Play 1 Unit on Penn State

BONUS PLAY Half Unit - Oklahoma -2.5 (Again the SEC is overrated outside of Alabama - No doubt OU has the best QB in the game, the best RB in the game, and while OU coach Bob Stoops is hit or miss in big games as a coach, OU has too many weapons on offense for Auburn to trade punches with).  

#321 - New Orleans Saints +7

Atlanta has a 1st round bye on the line here and Drew Brees and company plan to spoil their rivals celebration if need be.  The Saints are 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a dog, they are #1 in total offense and #1 in total passing offense and while the Dirty Birds are the better team and on a roll and I have cashed them a few times in the past 3 weeks, I like this one to NOT come easy for them and for New Orleans to put up a fight for pride here.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

#301 -302 - Houston / Tennessee UNDER 40

This was a video free play of mine this week, BUT it is the absolute best Under play on the board bar none.  Both will run it, both will be on second string QBs and neither team is explosive and Houston will play it very close to the vest.  Both have good defenses and no offense.  Neither team can stretch the field vertically and neither team will be chucking it down the field.  Houston just wants to get out of here healthy.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Bonus 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) – Tease the New York Giants to +13.5 and tease Seattle Seahawks down to -3.5  

#304 - New York Jets +3.5

What are the Bills doing laying a number to anyone?  Rex and Rob are gone, their starting QB is benched for financial reasons, the team is a circus right now and NEW is no bargain, but in a battle of 2 bad teams, I will always grab the points- and NY announced they are retaining their head coach and I think they will play harder.

Play 1 Unit on the Jets

#274 - Clemson +3  *7EST

Look Ohio State has a better head coach.  All that Venables staff (DC for Clemson) has to do is look at the Michigan game tape to see how the Wolverines shut OSU down, and QB Barrett is not a thrower and OSU simply cannot trade punches on the scoreboard.  Clemson is loaded with speed, well coached, Watson is the best player on the field and while OSU is battle tested, their inexperience finally rears its ugly head here.  Clemson has big play capability, and have waited all year, sometimes with complacency to rematch against Bama.  OSU is not even a conference champ and if Penn State can beat them, Clemson surely can and will with a fully healthy team including RB Gallman.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson

#272 - Alabama -14 *3 est 

Dropped from 16, do not think it matters.  Alabama has the best defense I have ever seen in CFB and that includes the 1995 Nebraska team.  Washington went through a weak PAC 12 conference, struggled against Utah’s defense which is a shell of Alabama’s at best and they struggled against USC who has athletes, but still not of Bama’s caliber.  Saban will be all business and while I respect Petersen’s talent as a coach, this is not the upset job he did on Oklahoma at Boise, this is the best team in the land, close to home and loaded at every skill position they have.  Bama pulls away late

Play 1 Unit on Alabama

#267 - LSU -3   *11AM EST

3 things at play here.  The Heisman curse, SEC team versus a lower tier school, and whenever Louisville came up against anyone outside of Florida State this year who was a good team they lost, including to SEC Kentucky of all people.  Louisville does not match up well against physical teams and despite QB Jackson's ability, LSU has too much in the tank and their running game will take it right to the Cards.  Remember a fading Houston team destroyed the Cards this season, and RB Guice ran for 8 yards a carry in the SEC!  Also remember that LSU was the ONLY team in America this season to make Alabama sweat and with a new head coach who the players love, LSU should roll here with a more physical team and old school smash mouth running right at them.

Play 1 Unit on LSU 

#264 - Tennessee -4   * Dec. 30 at 3:30 EST 

Nebraska is down their best offensive play making weapon with WR Jordan Westerkamp, and now their best play making defensive player (leading tackler and team co-captain and All an Big 10 DB) in Nate Gerry who has been suspended for this game because of grades.  It is also rumored that QB Tommy Armstrong if very iffy, and less than a 20% chance he plays because of a torn hamstring for this game and trust me, Nebraska’s backup could not start for any school in of the Top 5 conferences in the country.  Mike Riley is a horrible coach, and frankly any team they faced that was ranked, Nebraska got waxed including a season ending blowout loss to an average Iowa team by 30 points.  Ohio State beat Nebraska by 59 points gents.  Tennessee is loaded and their speed, coaching, and QB Dobbs will absolutely destroy Nebraska who has no offensive firepower to counter punch what Dobbs and company will do on the scoreboard against a bad defense who cannot defend the read option, dual threat attack Tennessee has.  Nebraska’s 3 best players out and 70% of their offense out.  Need I say more, and remember I graduated from Nebraska, and am a Husker and follow this program as close as anyone in the business. They are in big trouble here and this could be very embarrassing.

Play 3 Units on Tennessee 

#530 - Old Dominion -5.5   *7 EST

William Mary is the lesser team here, they are a bad road team (0-5 this year), and the favorite in this matchup is 10-2 ATS the last 12, and ODU dating back to last season has covered 8 out of their last 10 at home.  In 10 lined games this year ODU is 6-4 ATS and their defense is 23 ppg better in allowed points.  WOW.  William and Mary can score where ODU is a slow paced and based in fundamentals, but the better defense at home is the take here.

Play 1 Unit on ODU  

#253 – Arkansas +7   *5:30 EST

VT is a common spot, laying a big number after losing a title game.  How motivated are they for this, and how do they fare against a big and physical Arkansas Team who will pound the rock.  Arkansas off an embarrassing loss to a horrific Missouri team in their season finale, where they dominated an entire half, blew a huge lead and lost.  VT has issues giving up big plays and they also have some ugly losses like Syracuse for instance and they are inconsistent.  I think this is a rough and tumble, physical and lower scoring game, I will grab the points.  Dogs are covering like crazy and this pone here could win outright.

Play 1 Unit on Arkansas

#247 - Indiana +5.5 to +6  *830 EST 

We saw what the Big 10 did last night to one of the PAC 12's elite, and Utah is a PAC 12 team who slide down the ladder in 3 of their last 4 games and got beat by anyone good, and also lost to a horrific Oregon team.  Indiana did lose their head coach but worked their ass off to get to a bowl and are excited and motivated to play this game.  Every sharp I know in Vegas including some max bets are on Indiana in this game and while we lost a point or point and half on a line drop because of the sharp move, I think Indiana wins this outright.  They gave Michigan , Ohio State, Nebraska and Penn State all they wanted this year in case you do not follow the Big 10 like I do.  Utah barely beat Oregon State and UCLA this year, and struggled in big games.  

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

#239 - Washington State -9.5 to 10   * 7 EST 

Total mis - match on paper and this was going to be a huge play of mine this season at -6, but with suspensions and upheaval at Minny with the players protesting and ect and the line raise, I am singling this out as a 1 Unit Best bet. Line dropped to 9.5 in many places.  Look Minny players going through the motions, limited practiced as they protested this bowl at one point, and fragile emotions and egos for the Gopher players and if they get smacked in the mouth early, they do not the QB or the offense to play from behind.  Rough and tough Big 10 foe here who did not have 1 big win all year and Leach and his first [pick in the draft at player at QB, who wants to put on as show. Falk at QB is 71% in completion rate and over 4000 yards and one thing about Mike Leach, if he sees a weakness, he exploits it and drops the hammer, and will pile it on and let his start QB rack up he yards. Yeah Minny 23rd in defense in the NCAA, but Big 10 foes are different animal that a pass happy go for broke type offense that is quick paced.

Play 1 Unit on Washington State

BONUS PLAY:  Baylor +7.5 – Believe it or not Baylor running will keep them around here.  HALF UNIT 

Detroit +6.5

Not sold on Dallas being "All in" in this game as they have been assured home field in the playoffs and are division champs with NY losing at Philly Thursday.  They are looking to get to the post season healthy.  That said they wont lay down either, but Detroit in the playoff fight and this is a must win for them.  No doubt they are not the best team here but Stafford has had time to rest his finger, and they will expose a Dallas secondary here and put some points up.  Detroit has had only 2 losses in 10 games, both to playoff teams and 1 of those losses was to the Giants whom beat the Boys twice.  These 2 have played 3 times since 2011 and none of those games were further than 4 points apart.  I think Detroit shows up here and they also have plenty of play-makers.  Stafford and company should keep this close, Detroit is a feisty team.  

Play 1 Unit on Detroit.  

#233 - Vandy +5.5 to 6   *5 EST - Monday 26th 

Vandy has the better defense and no doubt Tested in battle out of the SEC.  Not sold on NC State and one of their wins was a fluke in a hurricane type setting against Notre Dame in their house. The Vandy offense scored 83 points in their last 2 games and have a banging RB in Webb.  NC State ended the season with an upset of big brother North Carolina but struggled in ACC play in mid season.  They play good teams tough no doubt, but laying 5.5 to 6 with them is risky.  Both teams will run the ball, and points will be at a premium here, I will take the better defense and coach in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Vandy.  

Ravens +5.5

Not sold on Pitt and Ravens better than advertised.,  Yeah they spanked them earlier with Big Ben not 100% but this defense will give Bell issues and Big Ben issues.  This is always a knock down drag out game, nothing comes easy for this division crown.  You can stat this to death, trend it to death, it is Pitt and Baltimore in a dogfight, points at a premium.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore.

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease the Ravens up to +11 and Tease Denver to +9 - 1 Unit 

Golden State -3 to 3.5

The Warriors are playing with some real revenge here guys, NBA Finals loss, where they dropped 3 straight to Cleveland to lose.  I also am not sold on the Cavs even at home here, they needed OT to beat both Milwaukee and Brooklyn of all people in their last game.  The defense of Golden State in their last 5 games is 10 ppg better than Cleveland and the Warriors have not lost a game in 24 days!   I think the Warriors exact some revenge here and it will be interesting to see the dynamic that Durant brings to the table in this match up that GS did not have last year.  

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

Buffalo -4

This line will drop by Saturday in my estimation, but it stinks to high heaven.  Rex Ryan playing for his job here or at least pride and QB Moore is not playing the deplorable jets this week.  Back to back roadies for the Fish, Buffalo McCoy is quietly having a hell of a year and I expect the Bills to pull out all the stops here and for Miami to get exposed.  I cannot trust them against this defense and Miami has always struggled in this stadium at 2-9 SU.   With experience when I see a line too good to be true, I fade it.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

2 team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit - Points Added - tease Green Bay down to -1 and tease Tampa Bay up to +9. 

Redskins -3

Yeah I am taking a team who liked dog crap on Monday but with the playoff hunt in their sites with little hope, so the pressure is off and I think they play loose and I expect this to be a double digit win.  You heard it here first.  Chicago blew their wad against Green Bay in an epic effort last week and RB Howard has impressed, but I expect this Skins offense to pull out every stop against a Bears defense that is suspect to big plays and Reed should have a big day.

Play 1 Unit on the Redskins

Atlanta -3

Short week for Panthers and they are not playing a Redskins team whose offense is hit and miss, Atlanta is a machine on offense, balanced offense and playing better defense than u may think.  Atlanta racked up a whopping  48 points against the Panthers when their defense was healthy in October.  Dirty Birds with weapons all over the place despite Jones absence, and Ryan on fire, and this is a short number for a better team and Carolina off a short week and Newton banged up.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

#226 - Troy -4   *8 EST - Friday December 23

Lost a half point of value here, but still worth a 1 Unit position.  The speed of Troy is going to give Ohio U, coached by Frank Solich, some issues big time.  Troy is also playing basically in their backyard in this one in Alabama where they are located.  Troy gave Clemson earlier this year all they wanted and beat some very good teams.  Troys defense ranked 33rd overall in the NCAA and they stuff the run, which Solich likes to do, they rank 22nd in points allowed.  More team speed and talent with an offense averaging 426 yards per game against a MAC team who had issues all year with good offenses and speed.

Play 1 Unit on Troy 

#222- ODU -4  * NOTE 1 PM EST Kickoff 

MAC teams are a bad bet in the bowls. Around 32% since 2012.  You saw Central Michigan get waxed against Tulsa already.  The MAC simply does not have the firepower to trade punches against high octane teams, and the speed of ODU is big factor here as well.  All ODU wins by double digits this year and they are 9-3 on the year, that is impressive and Washington at QB has 28 TD passes and only 4 picks.  Simply too much for EMU to contend with.  EMU has a good QB in Roback and he can put up some numbers, but ODU is a better team and at least a TD better here.

Play 1 Unit on Old Dominion 

#101 -Giants -1.5   *8:25 EST 

Line dropping like a rock, GOOD.  This is off of 3.  Usually Thursday Night road teams are a fade but Philly and Carson Wentz are not going to get it done here against this defense of NY which is no joke.  Manning the better QB in this game, better defense and better coach and now a line off a fall number.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants 

Wyoming +10 to 11

The Cowboys are a better than advertised team this season, I saw them play Nebraska in person this season and that score was skewed as Wyoming was within 7 points with 10 minutes left before they imploded with turnovers, and they beat SDU by 1 and lost by 3 2 weeks later in the MW Championship game.  BYU is without their leader and key playmaker QB Hill, as he is hurt yet once again.  While the BYU offense will score against the Cowboy defense, their offense can trade punches on the scoreboard and keep this within the number.  Craig Bohl, ex-Nebraska defensive coordinator is a good head coach and the moment will not be too big for his team here.

Play 1 Unit on Wyoming 

#719 - Kentucky (PK)   *7 EST 

Look, Louisville has a great defense and have 2 key wins over Wichita St and Purdue, but have not faced a powerhouse team like Kentucky.  In my opinion this is the best team talent-wise, even though young, that coach Cal has had.  You can throw the 59 ppg on defense allowed by the Cards out the window, as Kentucky can hit you about anywhere on offense and after a shootout with North Carolina over the weekend, I can assure you Coach Cal has stressed some defense in practice and will use the wide open approach on offense.  The two leading scorers for Louisville average just 11 ppg, and I do not see how they trade punches on the scoreboard against KU even though their defense will slow them some. Kentucky 14-4 ATS their last 18 games dating back to last year.

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky 

#216- Western Kentucky -6.5 to 7   *7 EST 

Not sold on Memphis’s big win against Houston, as we all saw Houston fade down the stretch big time and get waxed in a bowl game.  Memphis is in a weak conference and they simply cannot counter punch against Western Kentucky’s offense which is simply a scoring machine.  WKU has edges in all key categories’, Offense, Points, Yards gained, yards allowed, and I like their 517 yards per game against a defense that cannot stop anyone allowing over 440 yards a game.

Play 1 Unit on Western Kentucky  

Over 50.5 Washington / Carolina

The Skins are in a must win situation to stay in the playoff race, and they will leave nothing in the tank tonight.  They are 11-2 ATS on Overs this season and the Panther vaunted defense is a shell of its  old self.  The Skins defense is no bargain so QB Newton will move around and make plays as well.  I expect a shootout here and a lot of vertical type game from both sides and would be shocked if it wasn't, and QB Cousins should have a big night.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

BONUS 2 team 6 Point teaser - POINTS ADDED - Half Unit-  Tease Washington DOWN to -1 and Tease the the Total Down to 44.5 and Take the Over. 

#747 - SIU Edwardsville +14.5

Playing Green Bay on the road.  The Phoenix (Green Bay) is allowing 89 ppg at home, and shoot just 28% from 3-point range and are laying almost 15?  Any team with no defense whose opponent has a better 3 point shooting team than them, and laying this type of number is worth a look at the dog.  SIU has the better defense and a much better turnover ratio.  Green Bay off a bad beat down against big brother Wisconsin over the weekend. 

Play 1 Unit on SIU Edwardsville 

Over 69 to 69.5 Tulsa / Central Michigan

Real simple here, And yes this is a big number but have you seen Tulsa this year?  Tulsa is an offensive machine and will have close to if not exceed 40 points here and Central Michigan is going to try and keep pace with a good 4 year starter at QB.  Tulsa is hard to stop because of their balance, they run for 262 yards per game, and pass for 261, which is UNREAL balance and you simply cannot game plan to stop one or the other.  CMU has been somewhat conservative this year, but I think they open up the playbook and pass a ton in this one and try to trade punches on the scoreboard because that is the ONLY way they have a chance to win and or even cover a big number.  Also this is in Florida so weather wont be a hindrance 

Play 1 Unit on the Over  

#325 - New England -3

Expect Brady and Bellichek to have a game plan for Denver's defense, who is very suspect to the run, and I see the Pats pounding the rock in this game to set up play action pass with consistent success.  New England is the best team in the NFL bar none and play well in big games.  Denver is an above average team with no running game at all and a 2nd year QB at the helm that is not 100%.  Denver tough at home, but the Pats are hot, Brady does not turn it over and I would not be surprised to see WR Floyd make a debut here. Pats lost in OT in here last year and are in revenge mode, and no Manning at QB for the Bronco's this year! Public bet no doubt, but I think the Pats roll them in here by double digits. 

Play 1 Unit on New England

NY Giants / Detroit Under 40.5

Not as cold as the Jets game Sunday here, but none the less the Giant defense is NO joke and will show up again here, and with Stafford having a bad finger on his throwing hand, and it showed late in the game last week they had, and with not much of a running game, Detroit is in trouble here in my opinion, but none the less the Giants offense is not much to brag about, living off a few big plays to Beckham and then letting their defense do the heavy lifting.  Stafford the better QB here but he is hampered, and Manning has been hit and miss all year and turns it over.  This is a HUGE game for both teams and I expect a tight to the vest affair here and not a ton of offensive fireworks.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

BONUS 1 Unit 2 Team 6 Point Teaser - (Points Added) -  Tease Houston down to +1 and Tease Green Bay down to + 0.5   - Both teams should win SU with ease here - both in Playoff contention and both these games MUST Wins for both teams, solid teaser play here.   

#317 - Tennessee +5.5 

Look Kansas City is a good team, but overrated and I live in KC.  they get it done with defense and special teams, their offense is pedestrian at best.  The temps in this game at going to be around 8 degrees Sunday and that will have an affect.  Also with KC losing Derrick Johnson at LB, their #1 tackler on the team, they are VERY vulnerable to the run, and DeMarco Murray will get at least 25 touches Sunday and he will get his yards.  Mobile QB Mariota may also be an issue for KC.  This is a 3 point game one way or the other and no doubt low scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

#329 - Pittsburgh -3

Square bet yes, but Cincy is done folks and the Steelers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games in December, because they know when to turn it on.  Big Ben tossed 3 TD's in the first game and none to WR Brown, and right now RB Bell is unstoppable.  Andy Dalton is without weapons on offense and the Steelers are in a dogfight with the Ravens for the Playoffs and this division and they know the Ravens have a high chance of beating Philly this weekend so they will be ready for this one.  The Bengals always play Pitt tough no doubt, but they are limited on offense and their OL is suspect.

Play 1 Unit on Steelers 

UNDER 41.5 Kansas City / Tennessee

Weather is a huge factor here in Kansas City.  I live here, and the weather is almost uninhabitable outside and will be so on Sunday.  Wind Chills below Zero, ice, snow, and fans dumping tickets like crazy.  Arrowhead will be half full.  Watching the Northwest Missouri State Game in Kansas City on Saturday with 2 highly offensive teams (Division II National Championship) Neither team can function nor score, simply because the weather and extreme cold limits range of motion, takes away the throwing game for the most part and reduces speed.  A slick field, frozen grass and very hard to catch balls, it is simply the laws of nature that will make points a premium in this game.  Plus Tennessee will pound RB Murray all day, and we all know Andy Reid is a run first, short controlled passes type of play caller, both schemes eat clock.

Play 2 Units on the UNDER  

OVER 58  So. Miss / ULL

Well we all know unless you are living under a rock, Southern Miss has NO defense and they also have a stud QB in Mullins who can put up points and is 100% healthy, and the Cajuns RB McGuire is healthy and should run all over the porous Eagle defense.  Cajuns QB Jennings likes to throw picks but he is also effective with over 2000 yards passing and is a dual threat.  Inside the dome on a fast track in New Orleans.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Miami -2.5 (NFL)

While QB Matt Moore gets the start, I will take him over Bryce Petty any day of the week, he is a veteran QB with starts under his belt.  If this line was over 3.5 or higher I would take the Jets in what should be a low scoring game, but QB Petty without Forte and Marshall at his disposal in this game and Miami playing lights out for a Playoff berth, I cannot fade them in this spot.  Weather is supposed to be 40 degrees and raining, and Miami just ruins the ball better, and despite a come from behind 17-3 halftime deficit win for the Jets at the hapless 49ers last week, I am taking the Fish to cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on Miami      

Davidson +15.5 to 16

Kansas playing in KC, the weather is deplorable here, as I live here and am going to this game.  Davidson is a good team and KU does not have Fog Allen on their side.  Look for an easy cover here, too many for KU to lay.  Sharp bettors all over Davidson tonight in Vegas, the line is dropping, bet it right away.

Play 1 Unit on Davidson 

Houston -3.5

Well let’s win one for the new gipper (Major Applewhite, previously offensive coordinator here, steps up) here as Houston’s Herman left for Texas.  Lest we forget this team destroyed Oklahoma to open the season and they also pounded Louisville late in the year and a lot of hits and misses during the year.  Applewhite was calling all the plays so no drop off on offense. Ward is a Stud at QB and will want to make a big splash in his last game, and no Mountain West QB SDSU has played compares to his talents, and SDSU while a good team, steps up way in class here and despite Rocky Long being a solid head coach, Houston has way too many weapons on offense and should be able to contain the Aztec run attack with the nation’s 3rd ranked rush defense allowing less than 98 yards per game on the ground.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Charlotte +7

Almost the same exact stats and we all know the Hornets can score lights out.  More PPG, better on defense, turnovers, rebounds and a deeper bench.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte 

#715 - Georgia Southern -1.5  * 7 EST

Florida International has won 3 games this year and honestly 2 of those wins are against schools I have never heard of and I have been capping games for 25 years!  GS is a good team with all 5 starters returning from last year, they gave NC State all they wanted in a surprising and impressive 2 point loss and they are a better than average spread team at 15-5 ATS their last 20.  They have a superior backcourt production advantage here.  Less than a layup - I will take em as numerous sharps hit this in Vegas today and the line will climb, get on it.  

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Southern  

#536 - Nevada -10.5  **10 EST 

Off a huge win against Washington, and a strong home floor for the Wolfpack, 14-3-1 ATS their last 18 home games, I am all over them tonight as they should shut down UC Irving as they managed just 53 points against St Mary’s in a 31 point ass kicking 2 days ago and now travel to Reno to play Nevada

Play 1 Unit on Nevada 

#713 - Temple +15.5 to +16   *7 EST 

Going take the points here against Nova.  Yeah they are #1 and own their cross town rivals no doubt.  Temple has some solid wins against West Virginia, and Florida State and are scoring 75 ppg, and although the Nova defense is good, Temple has plenty of shooters and will keep this within the number.

Play 1 Unit on Temple – BONUS Half Unit on Santa Clara late -5.5 to 6      

Ravens +6.5

No Gronk is gonna hurt this offense.  Speak of the offense of the Pats, the Ravens have the overall #1 defense in the NFL and most important the #1 scoring defense as well.  Flacco off his best game of the year, and the Ravens in a dogfight for the Playoffs and will be dialed in like none other tonight.  Cold weather will hold the score down in my opinion and with fact New England has to redesign the offense and cannot use Gronk as a weapon in the red zone or use him as decoy, it makes them human, and the Raven defense will get after Brady and a sore knee tonight and make this a game.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

BONUS Teaser Half Unit / Same Game - 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added)  - Tease Ravens to +12.5 and tease the Total UP to 51 and take the Under.   

#129 - Atlanta –6

The Rams suck, their offense pathetic, and Atlanta grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory last week against a surging KC team, and I can assure you this game has their full attention with Tampa catching heat and challenging for the division, I expect an all out QB Ryan aerial assault on the Rams this week.  Rams have thrown it in, Atlanta has a ton to play for.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

#109 - Houston +6.5

Sharps all over this one in Vegas and I agree, without the Andrew Luck factor, quite frankly the Colts are a below average team.  Not sold on a blowout of the Jets because the jets have NO QB at all, (I was all over Indy on MNF), but the defense of the Texans should provide issues and quite frankly Indy should not belaying 6 to any team at .500 or better, they are just not that good.  All out game for both sides with division lead on the line (3-way tie right now with Tenn.).  Too many points.  Despite Oswillers struggles Houston still has playmakers and their run game should have a good day.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

#123 - Washington -2.5

Look, the Eagles are done, their defense will get shredded by a very underestimated QB Cousins, and the Eagles have injuries all over the place.  The Skins in a playoff hunt and motivated off a bad week last week, I fully expect them to dominate this game start to finish, Eagles offense woeful, QB Wentz throwing picks like crazy as well.  Skins roll

TOP PLAY – Play 2 Units

#119 - Minnesota –3

Jacksonville stinks, their QB is human turnover machine and has MAJOR issues with a good pass rush, and the Jags cannot run the ball.  Minny did not show up last week, and Zimmer was out, and added time to prepare here and still are alive, but have to win games like this and get back in the hunt, and with the Jags being a comedy of errors CONSISTENTLY in every game, and a short number, I will gladly lay it here.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

2 Team 6 Point Teaser 2 Unit TOP TEASER PLAY (points added)  Tease Atlanta down to -1.5 and tease Green Bay up to +9 – 2 Units.    

#552 - Butler -3 to 3.5

Play 1 Unit on Butler over Cincy this afternoon, tip is at 3:30 CST.  With short timeframes, this season on Saturdays,  I am not writing long game descriptions guys as I have to breakdown all these games, and then get them posted in a reasonable time frame.  Rest assured they are researched and capped, and also my Las Vegas source is an odds maker who I work with out there and the info I get is top shelf and we are getting on games the whales are on.   

Play 1 Unit on Butler

BONUS PLAY - #583 - Colorado +4.5 to 5 for half unit - Game at 9 CST.  

Army +6

Navy fully healthy would roll in this game.  They are down to 3rd string QB who looked lost against Temple and also down one of their stud RB’s and they are off a devastating loss and a conference title lost all in one game where Temple just beat the hell out of them.  Army has had 3 weeks off to prepare and a long term frustration in not getting over of rival Navy, and with their triple option attack and Navy’s bad defense, who will be on the field more because the offense is in idle with injuries, Army gets the cover and an outright win would not shock me.

Play 1 Unit on Army

KC -3

Disregarding the Thanksgiving games, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the Thursday night games for good reason.  2 days of prep and then travel and Oakland off a huge game on Sunday and now travel and the weather is going to be a huge factor, Artic Blast hitting KC (where I live) on Wednesday and Thursday and expect temps below 30 degrees at game time.  KC defense vastly better and know how to shut down the potent Oakland attack, already beat them by 16 in the last game and only laying 3 since Vegas wants split action here.  KC getting it done with WR Hill making huge plays, defense making huge plays, QB Smith taking care of the ball and TE Kelce a 1 man wrecking crew and RB Ware balancing offense.  KC is 20-4 SU their last 24 games and at Arrowhead in this cold, a clear 3 point home field advantage as well.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City  

#517 - Over 133 Vandy / Middle Tennessee

Both teams average over 70 ppg, Vandy is 10th in the NCAA in 3 point scoring and this one should be a shootout all the way.  My overlay on the total in power ratings is 9 points, well worth the stretch here.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#745 - Creighton -4   *9 EST 

Coach McDermott may have his best team at Creighton ever, and Tim Miles continues to struggle at Nebraska in big games and as a head coach at NU has never beaten his I-80 rival, Creighton who is just a 45 minute bus ride away in this one, ranked 10th currently and Huskers have no answer for Patton in the middle.  Looks like a set up line and ect, but Nebraska cannot get over on Creighton.  Watson and Foster in the backcourt for Creighton one of the Top 3 backcourts in the nation.  NU home floor is tough,  here but Blue Jays will have plenty of fans there as well.

Play 1 unit on Creighton

#540 - Evansville -6   *8 PM EST 

Opened at 4 but this should be a double digits.  Bowling Green is 0-3 on the road and the Purple Aces of Evansville again have a better than average Mo Valley team and I like their chances here tonight. Evansville’s defense will keep BG in check for sure, their depth and offense should dominate the game.  Evansville 4-0 SU  home.

Play 1 Unit on Evansville  

Colts -1.5

Simply put this is the Colts season.  A Huge game, added rest and prep, and Andrew Luck back in the starting position.  One thing about the Colts, they beat teams they should beat, and lose to ones they should lose to.  A Healthy WR Unit, RB unit and QB for the Colts versus human turnover machine QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and company at the Jets who are a total mess.  Jets 1-4 SU at home and a total mess at QB.  Better QB in this one to get a win and tied for first in their division, Colts will be dialed in.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

BONUS:  Play Half unit on the UNDER 48.5  

Cincy -1

Philly is an injury riddled mess on offense and the have a rookie QB showing his true colors in terms of carrying an offense with an empty arsenal.  While Cincy sucks, their defense shows up every week, and with the home filed, a better QB and better defense the only way to look here.  Cheap number.

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati

Saints / Lions OVER 53 to 53.5

Saints an absolute Juggernaut at home, 34 ppg in the dome and their defense sucks and the Lions Stafford licking his chops with this shootout. Both Dome teams on a fast track and two hot QB's.   Lions look tasty on the big number too, but who can argue this will not be an absolute shootout from he get go?  Highest totals number on the board for the weekend for good reason.

Play 3 Units on the OVER - GOY

San Fran (PK) 

What the hell is Chicago doing laying a number to anyone, with Barkley at QB?  Did you see Kaepernicks numbers against a decent Miami defense last week.  While San Fran continues to lose, they also continue to play better each week and no one noticing.  Gladly take the points or have it at a pick. 

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser- Play 1 Unit (Points Added)  Tease the Steelers Down to a Pick'em and tease Green Bay Down to Pick em...Oh Yeah!