Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Let’s not waste any time and dive in! Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (137-108 L53D)
NFL – (451) SAN DIEGO at (452) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Buffalo is off to a 2-0 start and has been lifted from -1 to -2.5 because of San Diego’s situation. The Chargers upset Seattle at home on a short week and now have to travel three time zones to play a noon start out East. Football bettors think this is a taxing schedule and are lining up early with the Bills. Update – As of this morning we are seeing football bettors in certain locations lowing Buffalo down to -1 or -1.5, however, we are still viewing a few 2.5, with only 40 percent on the Bills. SWM Take – Lean San Diego
NFL – (457) HOUSTON at (458) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET CBS *NEW*
When bettors broke down these two teams as the week went on, they realized the most significant difference was turnovers. Houston is +5 in TO margin against so-so competition while New York was -6 against two teams that will be fighting for playoffs berths. While these trends could continue, the feeling is the Giants will play better and they have been switched from a 2.5-point home underdog to a single digit favorite. Nothing trendy about either of these squads with the G-Men 0-6 ATS the last two September’s and Houston 0-7 ATS off a road game. SWM Take – Lean New York
NFL – (459) MINNESOTA at (460) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
The adjustments on this NFC confrontation have to do with the Adrian Peterson news. With no A.P. for this week and the foreseeable future, Minnesota has been bumped up from +9.5 to +10.5, with the total shrinking from 51 to 49.5. Both line moves appear justified given how the Vikings played at home last week on offense without Peterson and the fact New Orleans has to be frothing after starting the season 0-2. Update – New Orleans has held steady at -10.5, however, a few prominent offshore sports are at -10 today. The total now is anywhere from 49 to 50 points. The Saints enjoy 81 percent support and the OVER is at 67 percent. SWM Take – Lean Saints and Under
NFL – (463) BALTIMORE at (464) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Cleveland has played six strong quarters of football in a row and opened as a Pick against the hated Ravens who stole their team. Nonetheless, tradition runs deep and Baltimore is 10-5 SU and 9-6 ATS in Cleveland since 1999. The Ravens are still perceived as the better team and are up to -1.5 having covered five of the last six away. Update – About 40 percent of wagering outlets checked have Baltimore at -2 with the rest at -1.5. While 60 percent are backing Baltimore, with recent developments concerning the Ravens in the Ray Rice situation, are the players wondering what is really going on and what will their focus be? SWM Take – Slight lean with Baltimore (down from a play)
NFL – (475) KANSAS CITY at (476) MIAMI 4:25 ET CBS *NEW*
The running game for both these teams will look different as they look for improvement in Week 3. Kansas City will start Knile Davis with Jammal Charles suffering a high ankle sprain, while Miami will use a variety pack with Knowshon Moreno out a month with an elbow. Though neither offense is anything to get revved up about, the action is going against the home, with Miami down from -5 to -3.5. And for good reason, the Dolphins as a home favorite and are 12-29 ATS mark since 2004. SWM Take – Kansas City covers
NFL – (477) PITTSBURGH at (478) CAROLINA 8:30 ET NBC
The Pittsburgh defense has put in six shaky quarters of football as newer players are still adjusting, which has led to the total rising from 40 to 41.5. The belief is each team will do enough to surpass the sportsbooks original number. I also discovered a non-conference NFL system that is 23-5, 82.1 percent and it says to Play OVER when total is between 35.5 and 42 points on a team like Pittsburgh early in the season, who averaged 5.4 or more yards a play last year. Update – The total continues to steam, up to 42 and a few 42.5’s popping up. Has to be sharp action with 58 percent on the Under. SWM Take – Lean Over
NFL – Monday (479) CHICAGO at (480) N.Y. JETS 8:30 ET ESPN
With the Jets secondary unable to cover Jordy Nelson, it would appear New York would have an even harder time covering the Bears receiving contingent that is even larger and with wider bodies. Yet the money is following the Flyboys from a Pick all the way to -3. Maybe bettors feel Chicago’s luck runs out with a 1-9 ATS record after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Update – Just a couple books have come off 3 to 2.5, but don’t be surprised if more do by tomorrow. Over 70 percent supporting the Windy City visitor. SWM Take – Chicago covers
Top 3 Sides Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 2-4) – New Orleans, San Francisco and Dallas
Top 3 Totals Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, home teams, record 4-2) – Detroit –OVER, Philadelphia – OVER and Miami OVER
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Seattle is 14-2 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game the last three seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Tennessee is 9-1 OVER after scoring 14 points or less last game the last two seasons.
NFL First Half Trend
San Francisco is 7-0 ATS as a road favorite since last season.
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