Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves
Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves
By Doug Upstone
Here is the latest NFL football Line Moves for the playoff weekend. As we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NFL – (111) NEW ORLEANS at (112) SEATTLE 4:35 E FOX
Seattle opened as an 8.5-point home favorite in the weekend’s opener and by Tuesday morning was down to -7.5. The general assumption is New Orleans will prepare differently this time for the Seahawks and might be able to take advantage of opportunities.
The Seattle’s running game has really taken a dive and is down almost 30 percent from earlier in the season. The Saints have improved against the run significantly the last three games and have allowed less than 80 yards per game in this stretch, being especially effective in the A-Gaps, which is the path Seattle prefers to take.
Besides taking away the run, Rob Ryan’s defense will have watched tape and noticed how opposing teams are pinching quarterback Russell Wilson to stay in the pocket and Seattle has averaged just 19.2 points a game since these teams last met, after averaging 28.3 PPG in their first 12 outings. New Orleans will have gained confidence from their come from behind win at Philadelphia and it is wise to presume head coach Sean Payton has diligently gone over the game film and will have new wrinkles for Seattle. Nonetheless, Seattle is 14-4 ATS at home and 6-0 ATS off a victory at Century Link Field. Update – As the weekend came, so did the Seahawks money and they are up to -9.5 or -10. Nearly 70% are on the Saints, which suggests wise guy cash on Seattle. The total has continued to drop from 48 to 43, though just 55% are backing the UNDER. SWM Take – Seattle covers and lean Under
NFL – (113) INDIANAPOLIS at (114) NEW ENGLAND 8:15 E CBS
New England was released as a touchdown favorite and has stayed there to this point. The total of 52.5 has budged ever so slight to 53 points and depending on the weather, could go as high as 53.5. Early on, better than 75 percent of bets placed have been on the OVER. Here we find Indianapolis is 14-4 OVER in road games after a contest with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Additionally, the Patriots are 7-0 OVER at home when the total is 49.5 or higher the last two seasons. Update – The total has been drifting downward to 51 with heavy wind and rain expected. Just under 55% on the OVER however. SWM Take – Play Under
NFL – (115) SAN FRANCISCO at (116) CAROLINA 1:00 E FOX (side and total)
Once San Francisco had nipped Green Bay 23-20, within the hour, oddsmakers had the 49ers as a Pick to -1 depending on the sportsbooks release. Swiftly Sunday night, the Niners were pushed to -2 and that was still holding Tuesday morning. Of the four teams in the NFC and possibly all the remaining elite eight, a strong argument can be made San Francisco is the most complete team left in the field. Let’s face it; this club was one fourth down conversion from being Super Bowl champions a year ago. Since Week 3, Jim Harbaugh’s squad is 12-2 (10-3-1 ATS) and with the return of wide receiver Michael Crabtree, the offense is back on track.
But let’s not sell Carolina short, because after a 1-3 start, they are a scintillating 11-1 (8-3-1 ATS), which includes a triumph over San Francisco on the road and this is a team they have beaten four consecutive times, the last two as an underdog. The 49ers might be 8-1 ATS as road favorite of a touchdown or less, but Riverboat Ron Rivera’s team is 13-5 ATS off a non-cover.
The first matchup closed at 43 points for the total, which is where this NFC tussle opened up. Because the first battle was 10-9 and these are two of the best defensive teams in the NFL, the number has dropped to 42. This could matter since the Panthers are 27-12 UNDER at home when the total is listed from 38.5 to 42 points. Update – After bouncing around, the Niners have returned to a one-point favorite with 75% backing. The total has total continues to dip, now at 41.5 and almost 60% riding it. SWM Take – San Francisco covers and Over
NFL – (117) SAN DIEGO at (118) DENVER 4:40 E CBS
Denver was released as a 9.5 or 10-point home favorite and has remained there the first part of the week. San Diego was catching almost 60 percent wagering backing early. A few Las Vegas books have taken the total from 54.5 to 55, but largely not much change. Not quite 60% are betting the UNDER. Update – Almost no movement all week. SWM Take – San Diego covers
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