Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 9
Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 9
By Doug Upstone
Here are the up to the minute NFL Football Line Moves for Week 9. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (401) ATLANTA at (402) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
Carolina has scored 30+ points in three straight games, something they have not accomplished since 2008. With Atlanta’s defensive woes, those making NFL picks had no problem moving the total from 41 to 44 points. The Panthers are 11-2 OVER versus NFC South opponents the last three seasons, but they are also 12-3 UNDER at home after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games. Update – Important money must be pushing this total to anywhere from 46 to 47, since not even two-thirds of wagers placed are on the OVER. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – (403) MINNESOTA at (404) DALLAS 1:00 ET FOX *New (side and total)
The Vikings total defense ranking is 30th and the Cowboys are 32nd, thus seeing the total rise from 46 to 49.5 points in hardly a surprise. Here is something to consider, in a game involving two weak defensive teams (outgained by 40-100 YPG), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous outing, they are 84-42 UNDER in their next game. With Dallas so poor defensively, even giving Minnesota 10 points seems like a stretch and the number is down to -9. SWM Take – Lean Dallas and Under
NFL – (405) NEW ORLEANS at (406) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET FOX
If the Jets could not stop Cincinnati, what chances do they have in containing Drew Brees and the Saints? That is precisely what football bettors were thinking in elevating New Orleans 2.5 points to -6. Still, Gang Green was in a bad situational spot last week and is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season. The key will be the Jets pass rush. Update – At Vegas wagering locales, we are finding 6 to 7 points, but offshore books are finding more Jets money and are at 5.5. The overall picture is 75% Saints wagers. SWM Take – Lean New Orleans
NFL – (407) TENNESSEE at (408) ST. LOUIS 1:00 ET FOX
While St. Louis piled up 339 yards of offense on Seattle, they still only managed nine points with Kellen Clemens at quarterback. The Rams figure to struggle on offense and take away the 38 points Tennessee tallied against the Jets; the Titans are averaging 17.8 PPG against everybody else. Backed with this intel, football bettors have lowered the total from 41 to 39.5. Tennessee is 23-9 UNDER in road games off a non-conference contest. Update – The most common number this morning is 40 points with a few stragglers a half point either way. The bets are nearly even. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – (409) KANSAS CITY at (410) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Since the release, this AFC confrontation has been descending, down to 41 points after starting at 43. The Kansas City defense has a lot to do with the line move, as would the fact they are 14-3-1 UNDER the second half of the season the last two years. Here is where it could be tricky; the Bills are 8-1 OVER when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Update – With the news Jeff Tuel is starting for Buffalo, the total has not shifted, but Kansas City money has been flooding in, taking the Chiefs from -3.5 to -5 and my speculation is -6 or -6.5 could be the game time number. SWM Take – Pass
NFL – (413) PHILADELPHIA at (414) OAKLAND 4:05 ET FOX *New
This is a little tricky, but sportsbook who released games last Sunday afternoon had Philadelphia -3, but that was before Michael Vick was known to be out. After Oakland had upset Pittsburgh and Vick news was released, the Raiders became a one point favorite and by Wednesday, were up to -2.5. Later Wednesday, the Eagles said Nick Foles was cleared to play and with Oakland 3-14 ATS after a home underdog upset, Philly is down to +1.5 this morning. Got all that? SWM Take – Lean with Oakland
NFL – (419) PITTSBURGH at (420) NEW ENGLAND 4:25 ET CBS
The total has jumped two points to 44 and there are conflicting signals everywhere. The Pittsburgh offense is not scoring and the defense while it has good numbers, gives up too many big plays. Tom Brady the New England offense continues to struggle and the all the defensive personnel losses leave the Patriots exposed. The Pats are 14-5 OVER after a double digit victory. Update – Almost half the books checked are back to 43.5 with the rest steady. Just over 50% are on the Over. SWM Take – Lean Over
NFL – (421) INDIANAPOLIS at (422) HOUSTON 8:00 ET NBC *New
In this AFC South showdown, we find the total is crumbling, lowered two digits to 43.5. The prior five meetings have all gone UNDER and we dig up teams like the Colts, playing in November, after a home underdog outright upset are 37-11 UNDER the last nine years. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – Monday (423) CHICAGO at (422) GREEN BAY 8:40 ET ESPN *New
Aaron Rodgers might even be able to take a few Sports Watch Monitor handicappers and still score a few touchdowns (OK, maybe an exaggeration) at the level he is playing at. Even with the losses in personnel, Green Bay keeps scoring and the Chicago defense is 29th in points allowed at 29.4 per contest. This has led to the total flowing from 48.5 to 50.5. The Bears are 9-1 OVER versus offensive teams averaging six or more yards a play and is 9-2 OVER since last season. SWM Take – Play Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
The N.Y. Jets are 1-10 ATS off one or more straight Over’s the last two seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Indianapolis is 12-1 UNDER versus division opponents the last three seasons.
NFL First Half Trend
Seattle is 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better the last three seasons.
NFL Money Line Trend
Philadelphia is 1-13 off a home loss the last three seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
