Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Here is the latest NFL Line Moves and as a bonus, we tossed in today’s ALCS Game 4, where the total has been on the prowl. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – Thursday (303) SEATTLE at (304) ARIZONA 8:25 ET NFLX
For this Thursday football matchup, the betting odds on the total began at 42.5 and have receded to 40.5. Other factors do not support this adjustment as these teams are 8-4 OVER playing in the desert and here is a real nugget, Seattle is 11-2 OVER vs. passing teams averaging 235 or more yards a game under Pete Carroll.
NFL – (401) HOUSTON at (402) KANSAS CITY 4:05 ET CBS
This is probably a good week for Houston to get out of town, mired in a four-game losing streak and Texans and Rams players criticizing the Houston fans about the Matt Schaub incident. With Schaub doubtful, which is the same of the Texans at 0-6 ATS, they have exploded from +4 to +6.5 against the perfect Chiefs. Houston is 3-12 ATS away after a home setback.
NFL – (405) BUFFALO at (406) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS
The total in this AFC East encounter has steadily been on the rise, elevating from 41 to 43 points. This is a logical direction to follow since Buffalo is 4-1 OVER in their last four outings and Miami is 4-0 OVER since Week 2. However, this information might be enough to sway us the other way. In a matchup involving two teams being outgained by 40-100 yards per game on the season, after one club (the Bills) allowed 400 or more total yards in their previous game, the UNDER is 15-4 the past three years.
NFL – (409) DALLAS at (410) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
With Dallas suffering two key injuries to starting players on both sides of the ball, Philadelphia has gone from a Pick to -3 in this NFC East battle for sole possession of first place. Defense end DeMarcus Ware and RB Demarco Murray are not expected to play and the Cowboys are thin at both positions. Philadelphia has failed to cover its past nine home games. The total has been in reverse from opening -56.5 to 54.5. The Cowboys are 8-1 UNDER in road games when the total is 45.5 or higher.
NFL – (415) SAN FRANCISCO at (416) TENNESSEE 4:05 ET FOX
After losing in weeks 2 and 3, San Francisco has rebounded to win and cover three in a row. Despite their success, football bettors are siding with Tennessee, shifting them from +6 to +4.5. If Jake Locker was the quarterback, this line move could be justified, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, you have to like the Niners chances.
NFL – (417) CLEVELAND at (418) GREEN BAY 4:25 ET CBS
With Green Bay expected to be without a couple key receivers taking on Cleveland’s No.8 pass defense, the Packers have been sent packing from 11 to -9.5 at Lambeau Field. The Browns just had their three-game winning and covering streak snapped and will try and begin another. While Green Bay may have restrictions on offense, Cleveland has Brandon Weeden. The Pack is 10-2 ATS at home after the first month of the season the past three years, winning by 18 PPG.
MLB – (917) BOSTON at (918) DETROIT 8:05 ET TBS
With Detroit having been involved in three shutouts in their past four contests in one form or another, it is striking to see the total rising from 7 to 7.5. Nonetheless, pitchers Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.07 ERA) and Doug Fister (14-9, 3.71) both have ERA’s well over four against their respective opponents during their careers. The Tigers might hold the key, since they are 17-7 OVER after two or more straight losses and 15-4 OVER at Comerica Park when the total is listed at 7 or 7.5.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Zack Greinke of the Dodgers is 19-3 as a favorite of -150 or more the last two seasons. (Team’s Record)
NHL Money Line Trend
Anaheim is 26-5-5 vs. Calgary the past 17 years.
CFB Totals Trend
Baylor is 15-2 ATS at home the last three years. (Saturday)
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
